Game Seven 2022-23: Oilers at Blues

by Lowetide

The current Oilers have the kind of grit that Krushelnyski displayed during his prime. Evander Kane, is a volume shooter and a successful scorer, along with being a physical load for the opposition. His possession numbers wander a little, but this is the kind of big man who can help a team win the Stanley Cup.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: VAN, CGY, BUF, CAR, STL, PIT (Expected 4-1-1) (Actual 3-3-0)
  • On the road to: STL, CHI, CGY (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-2-2, 12 points in 9 games
  • Actual October results: 3-3-0, 6 points in 6 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 3-3-0, 6 points in 6 games

I have the Oilers going 1-1-1 on the road trip, landing a 4-4-1 record for October. That’s nine points in nine games, and would be outside the playoffs if the 82 games played out this way. I like this year’s team, the goaltending looks good, the defense has room to grow, and the forwards are brilliant and a little deeper than last year. I’m looking forward to this season, kind of feels like the takeoff was understated. Perhaps the team gets airborne on the road.

BOUCHARD

I have a piece up on the Oilers defense this morning (here) and I think you’ll find the portion on Evan Bouchard revealing.

SKILL IN DIFFERENT SHAPES AND SIZES

I’m a fan of Corsi rel, an old timey five-on-five stat designed to tell you how an individual performs relative to teammates in the discipline. Since 2020-21, so two years and six games this season, Connor McDavid’s rel is No. 4 (behind Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchant, Sean Couturier) and Jesse Puljujarvi is No. 6 across the NHL.

The new metric, or at least the newest I’ve adopted (this blog is slow to adopt new ideas) is Expected goals at five-on-five. Here are the top six Oilers forwards via expected goals since the start of the 2020-21 season. Number is league ranking among forwards with 900+ minutes.

  • No. 4 Connor McDavid (10.9)
  • No. 6 Jesse Puljujarvi (10.1)
  • No . 112 Ryan McLeod (1.9)
  • No. 130 Evander Kane (1.4)
  • No. 143 Warren Foegele (1.1)
  • No 149 Zach Hyman (0.1)
  • No. 226 Leon Draisaitl (-0.7)
  • No. 251 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (-1.42)
  • No. 255 Kailer Yamamoto (-1.47)

I mention this because I want you to know that Corsi Rel, Expected Goals and other metrics like shot share, pts-60 at five-on-five and success of the line and team when the individual is on the ice are part of my evaluation. That became an issue yesterday when I said the following about Jesse Puljujarvi: “I think he’s underrated but needs to score enough to hang with the good centers.”

Several of you reached out via various connections to say a variation of “why doesn’t Kailer Yamamoto ever get criticized?” and I wanted to address it.

For me, both men are complementary offensive players. That isn’t an insult, it’s reality. The difference is that Puljujarvi has a proven track record of helping his line spend their shifts outside Edmonton’s defensive zone. He interrupts sorties, deflects cross-ice passes, does all kinds of subtle things to help his team arrive in a good spot on the ice. I know who he is, if you’ve read the 40 articles I’ve written on him at The Athletic and have some confusion about how much I value him, then I’m at a loss. From the first article (winter 2017) to the most recent (fall 2022) the thrust of the verbal has been how much this player helps a team.

I know what he is, and it’s a lot. Yamamoto, as the numbers (and the rel numbers) show, is not the same kind of possession player. He is also in a mighty big slump, eased only by a nice run in the later part of 2021-22. I don’t compare the two, beyond saying they’re complementary offensive players.

When I say “Puljujarvi needs to score enough to hang with the good centers” I’m including McLeod. The degree of difficulty is higher (McDavid is an offensive God, Leon not far behind) with McLeod, and Puljujarvi may end up being the scorer on the line. He’s definitely the driver, he definitely pushes the river.

I’m not going to write about this again, because it’s not really what I do. I have my views, share them, and then we discuss. But in this instance I feel we’ve reached a point where saying something about Puljujarvi as innocuous as “he needs to score to hang with the good centres” becomes a lightning rod, we’ve reached the tower of Babel. I value JP, he has real value. In his last 43 games, he has scored 4-9-13. Yamamoto has scored 12-14-26 in his last 43 games. Both are slumping as they enter the season.

When I talk about Puljujarvi’s offense, I’m never framing it against a Yamamoto backdrop. If you are, then we’re not on the same page. I value JP. Read the 40 articles. It’s all there.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy day on TSN 1260, 10-2. Guests include Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal and Chris Johnston, TSN Insider. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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hunter1909

Just saw Stuart Skinner for the first time. Post game whatever. 

He’s basically Mike Smith as a rookie. Both look like they come from the same part of Scotland, are both the same height, amazing and stunning similarities.

OriginalPouzar

and 100% opposite personalities.

kgo

I know it’s early, but if Yamo has a crap season and we need the cap space next year he’s young enuf for the 1/3 buyout….would only cost 500k for 2 years…. hopefully the cap jumps but bouch and skinner need $2-$3 raises each minimum….not ideal I know but worth noting

Reja

He has to be playing with nagging injury maybe it’s time to sit him and let Holloway have a go with Leon.

hunter1909

Holloway needs to be carefully returned to the NHL. Sit him on the bench until the score shows Oilers ahead. He will love watching the game while being paid to be in the NHL.

Wood-coach must still shudder when he realised how insane the decision was to put Holloway out onto the ice moments into the NHL season – for all anyone says its even possible that he won’t recover. Let’s hope he does, naturally.

Oilers rookies routinely get injured. I never understood how routine it was. My memory goes back to the 2003 draft when they traded for the right to not draft Zack Parise so they could get M.A. Pouliot.

Pouliot already was half dead still in junior hockey after Dion Phaneuf hit him with the force of a fire truck.

Last edited 2 years ago by hunter1909
hunter1909

He hasn’t got anywhere near the sympathy that say, JP constantly gets.

Looks to me like someone really slammed into him, and he’s taking time to recover.

Unfortunately when I saw the Avs target him in the playoffs, I knew that this was going to be Yamamoto’s fate in the NHL. He still can recover, and survive but it’s never going to be easy.

Reja

Anyone know what Principal Skinner updated save percentage is?

€√¥£€^$

0.957, but extremely small sample size, hopefully he has continued success.

Reja

He’s taking the heat of Campbell who’s getting familiar with his new D.

OriginalPouzar

Second in the league.

As you say, only 3 games, but the one guy ahead of him has only played 2 and the most is 5 (I think).

OriginalPouzar

Brett Kulak is 5-0 goals at evens this season (Tyson Barrie 5-2 and 4-2 at 5 on 5).

I thought Kulak was back to “spring 2021 Kulak” tonight, solid defence, great gap control, etc. and, as much as he’ “looked” uneven through the first six, he’d not getting scored on (that breakaway goal against the flames was a PPG).

OriginalPouzar

7 minutes for Nimeo and 10 for Murray (at 5 on 5) doesn’t make sense to me – it doesn’t jive with what I saw from these two players on the ice tonight (nor their individual progressions over the last 3 games).

godot10
W

Yuk yuk

Spartacus

Nice.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Not sure what they have done to the Nuge, but I am loving it. Four goals in seven games … really? If the new and improved Nuge is for real and Skinner is an actual 1B, well, that just might be enough to get to the SCF. Add in the growth from McLeod and Nemo, the fact that Kane is just starting to get warmed up, the infectious play of Hyman, and it is getting hard not to get excited.

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Wanner’s Warriors won, but Wanner went pointless.

innercitysmytty

RNH = even strength wizard

OriginalPouzar

4 ES goals

3 5 on 5 goals and 2.01P/60 (and 2.01 G/60, no assists at 5 on 5).

8 points in 7 games.

Ice Sage

Am liking the Oilers’ balanced scoring thus far. More please!

Boil-in-the-Oil

Earlier today you removed a post (reply) of mine, I’m curious to know why. It was a rather vanilla post, predicting a win for our Oilers tonight. Was there some particular word that was objectionable (I can’t believe there was anything even borderline but…) or that automatically alerted Akismet and was removed in error?
Cheers

McSorley33

Are we watching Ryan McLeod blossom in real time…..on the road, against a very very good blues team:

CF 61.5%
SF 61.5 %
xGF -72.5%

Folks, this is our 3C.

I may faint. Our 3rd line is…..well, I don’t even want to say it.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I will say it: our third line is NOT a steamy pile of shit for the first time in eons.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

McLeod looks so confident this season. To me, that is the biggest difference. He is not as tentative with the puck.

McSorley33

Agreed. Gained some confidence and is, imo, more willing to use his size on the forecheck.

jm363561

Totally agree. My knock on him has been his limited point production but there seems a step change this season (although not so much in the preseason). Having four good to great centres gives the coach great flexibility.

Man, Skinner looked good again. Really, really good. Please don’t let him be Scriven 2.0.

Overall another really good game again tonight.

OriginalPouzar

He made some plays in the offensive zone I didn’t know he had in him – one side-board battle when he did a spin move to break free, powered his way (not quite Hyman style in that vein) around the net and made a third positive play with the puck to end it.

A few yipes in the defensive zone where he seemed almost “over-confident” to me and could have made a better (and safer) play with the puck but, damn, he’s playing REALLY good 2-way hockey right now.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Yup. There was a time not long ago when the pecking order was JP, KY and then McLeod. No longer. I don’t care where he was drafted relative to the others, he is leaving them on the side of the road.

The first hint of this for me was a couple of occasions when I mistook him for Connor while he was bringing the puck up the ice. You can’t teach that. Pure skill that you have or you don’t. Now we are seeing evidence of more offensive creativity and improved finish. Can’t wait to see this story unfold as his confidence continues to build.

McSorley33

Saw that as well…he gleaned this move from McDavid. ( spin move from boards)

And you are right again on the 3rd period yips -along with Bouchard.

Reja

I’ll say it again and again Ryan McLeod = Todd Marchant.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

He is a lot bigger than Todd with room to grow. If he ends up with 1200 games and 500 points, I won’t be disappointed but not surprised either.

Reja

Marchant, Cleary, Chimera, Cogliano and McLeod all have one thing in common speed, speed and more speed enough speed to last a 1000 games.

McSorley33

I have no idea if the Blues can maintain this type of suffocating playoff D….but it is almost obscene how they protect home plate.

jp

You needn’t believe the numbers, but NST says the Oilers did the better job tonight.

12-9 HD chances overall
9-5 at 5v5
(both for the Oilers)

Scoring chances were 33-33 overall
26-19 Oilers at 5v5

Agree btw the Blue did defend quite well, but perhaps the Oilers did better than it feels.

Thinking back on the game, there sure was a lot of chaos around Binnington tonight. More than there was around Skinner, though he was the one who faced more shots (many from the point iirc).

Munny 2.0

Oilers were collapsing to the slot nicely tonight.

McSorley33

Oh , for sure. We played very well tonight.

It just felt like we were the better team and had (outside last 5 mins of 3rd obv) more controlled offensive zone time. Yet, converting that into HD chances was so tough.

Your point is very valid though, we played good D as well.

jp

Yes, agreed. The Blues defended very well. Binnington was also excellent (as was Skinner).

Feels good to get pay back v. the Blues

OriginalPouzar

This would be one of the times where the SportLogiq numbers would likely assist – slot shots inner slot shots, chances off the cycle, etc.

JimmyV1965

Totally agree. Lots of action in close to Binnington.

Reja

If sneaky Kadri doesn’t takeout Binnington the Av’s might not have a ring on their finger.

Admiral Ackbar

Great to get the W with McD on the mend. Skinner was fantastic. A lot of dangerous chances he faced. Also, Murray thinks and moves too slow for this league. He’s replacement level at best.

jp

Should we co-opt ‘replacement level, at best’ as an under the radar compliment? (thinking of its usage last summer/fall)

Victoria Oil

Soupy Campbell may or may not have better stats compared to Mike Smith last year, but I would make a substantial bet that Principal Skinner will put up better numbers than Koskinen.

Munny 2.0

38 saves. Some rebounds early on he’d probably want back, but man what a solid performance from Stu.

Soup and Stu. The Lunch Line. Two Bowls of Backstop. Fork and Spoon… Comfort Food.

meanashell11

Skinner had a hell of a game. He looks very confident. Does not overplay, stays solid to the puck. I like!

McSorley33

A fraction of the frenetic movement of Mike Smith….just love his style.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

Don’t forget your
spork!

Last edited 2 years ago by Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville
Durag

The mulligatandem

Munny 2.0

I like it.

flyfish1168

We need to sign McLeod, Skinner, and Bouch ASAP.

jp

Is this like the Puljujarvi convo last fall?

Offside

At one point wasn’t the talk of long term at $5 million AAV?

Lewis Grant

Great question. I think I was one of the first to pump the brakes on the “sign JP to a $5MX8 contract” last year.

And yet….

I actually think this is different. JP had so many ups and downs that I wanted to see more sustained ups. I was worried that the downs would reappear. And they did.

Skinner and especially McLeod, it seems to me, have developed in a pretty straight line. And while Bouchard has been more up and down, that pretty much happens with every defenseman.

I don’t think I’d have any problem signing McLeod ASAP. Of course, the league would have a problem, which is why we’ll have to wait a few months. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s already a verbal agreement to an extension, which would be excellent news, as it would have been agreed on before McLeod really started to pop this season.

Last edited 2 years ago by Lewis Grant
jp

I actually think this is different. 

Fair enough. And I definitely didn’t say I’d have a problem signing those guys to term.

IMO McLeod and Skinner are both sufficiently blocked that them truly breaking out is very unlikely though. They’ll get raises, but it’s highly unlikely either will be getting even a $3M contract next summer.

Bouchard is a different story, but that’s also old news and there’s not a lot that anyone can do about it.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Nice win.

I am worried about mcdazzle.

Crazy Pedestrian

Why? Because he’s not putting up his normal level of points? Or was there something I missed?

Last edited 2 years ago by Crazy Pedestrian
Admiral Ackbar

Not taking faceoffs. Definitely looks to be avoiding significant contact..

jp

Why?

Surely if anything significant he wouldn’t be playing through it.

OriginalPouzar

Well:

1) last two games were his lowest two TOI of the season
2) he took one faceoff
3) he was NOT out there for the 5 on 6

Its significant enough to materially alter his role, right?

jp

Yes, I’m not arguing he isn’t playing through something.

I just think that if the trainers are letting him play through it, then it’s very unlikely it’s something we need to worry about in the big picture.

OriginalPouzar

Could be or it could be something that won’t get worse by playing but will continue to be there for a while – I don’t know but its not unreasonable.

He’s clearly limited – not out there for the 5 on 6 is quite telling to me.

hunter1909

McDavid’s a young man. Injuries heal fast.

In ten days it will be like nothing happened.

Reja

He’s not the first player to play through a injury McDavid not made of glass.

hunter1909

I would wager McDavid’s one of the toughest players in the NHL. We already saw how well he can fight, after he broke his knuckle hammering some foolish opponent.

McDavid is also one of the best conditioned players. That’s one of the major keys to returning after injuries.

hunter1909

Oilers played a fantastic road game.

Skinner was very good.

RNH is going to be a star Oiler by the end of the regular season. He’s the Oilers version of Jacques Lemaire.

Why the worry about Hyman? He’s an opportunistic beast. Toronto fans have to hold their cheeks together when slagging him off now that he’s left the Leafs.

W

Dave Keon

hunter1909

Keon seemed to skate around hardly ever scoring.

And compared to Keon, even RNH comes across as a jovial chap.

VanIsleOil

Jean Ratelle

hunter1909

I vote Lemaire – who I believe blossomed as a 1st line centre relatively late in his career, and went on to help lead the last Habs Dynasty.

DevilsLettuce

What a game by Skinner and glory to the Nuge.

Bag of Pucks

Solid solid road start for Skinner.

Interesting to see the players Woodcroft had out to protect a 1 goal lead in a tough barn. Drai. Kane. Hyman. Nurse. Kulak. Enough beef to withstand the physical push from the Blues. Enough skill to counter for the empty netter. Good coaching.

Lewis Grant

Once again, props to Holland for the Hyman signing. I wondered at the time if Hyman had been artificially pumped up by the Toronto media. Nope. He has been exactly what this team needed. He comes to play every game. Other than not having elite skill, he does everything well. Including, by all accounts, being a great teammate.

And, thankfully, he’s managed to stay healthy so far.

hunter1909

Hyman plays a surprisingly efficient style of game.

Halfway between Ryan Smyth and Glenn Anderson. bwahahahahaha

Durag

St. Louis just can’t score 5v5 against us!

KnightRain

A beauty team win with Skinner the backbone!
This game, like I said the last blues game, is only going to make us better! Learning how to win the right way is worth more than gold!!!

jp

Nice game by Kulak. And interesting use of the D tonight generally.

McSorley33

Yep, seems to be getting better here…

Victoria Oil

Woo hoo!! Huge ‘character’ win.

cowboy bill

Two in a row .
WOOHOO !!!

Gerta Rauss

Strong win

Very strong

McSorley33

Stuart Skinner.

Just a rock….

Tarkus

Oilers are undefeated when scoring first.

jp

They’re clawing back near 50% on the 1st goals too it looks like.

Derek

They were way, way, wayyyy too passive on that 6 on 5. I thought it was going to get tied up immediately. Thank Gord for Skinner.

Crazy Pedestrian

I thought so too, it felt inevitable.

but Skinner comes up big!

jp

Nice win.

That is one HELL of a game by Skinner there. Huge.

Crazy Pedestrian

YEEEEAAAAHHH!

KnightRain

BOOM!!! Hyman with the gravy!!! What a game by Skinner!!!

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar

 October 26, 2022 8:31 pm

I’m thinking the Oilers are going to need one more big save by Skinner before they cash the EN insurance……

Confirmed!

fishman

Yea baby!!!! What a win!

OriginalPouzar

Great dish by Drai!

Munny 2.0

Just 1-2-2ed them back, Foggy with the steal

KnightRain

Skinner is lazer focused tonight. So impressive

Paulie

Skinner gonna need to make some more saves

fishman

Both tenders having a huge game. Wow!

Paulie

Hyman having a strong game. So relentless in every zone and on every shift. Incapable of giving less than 100%. Such a fun player to watch.

OriginalPouzar

I’m thinking the Oilers are going to need one more big save by Skinner before they cash the EN insurance……

Munny 2.0

Nuge with a big brain quick feet goal

Gerta Rauss

McD and Hyman with the apples

Bag of Pucks

They play Stranglehold and the Nuge scores the potential game winner. Quick, play Wango Tango for the insurance marker!

cowboy bill

I love it when the Nuge scores.

Crazy Pedestrian

FINALLY! BOOM! NUUUGGE!

flyfish1168

The no call is looking big

Crazy Pedestrian

You just know there’s a makeup call coming

flyfish1168

Maybe it was a make-up call for not calling binnington for roughing Kane

Derek

That dive by O’Reilly is probably alot more convincing when it’s not the smallest guy in the league lifting his stick

KnightRain

BOOM!!! Dirty area goal!!! NUGE!!!

KnightRain

That quick pivot to get to an open area was amazing!!!

OriginalPouzar

Holy Hell – great play by Hyman but Jordan B…..

NUGE!!!!!!!