Anton Lander (photo by Rob Ferguson) was Edmonton’s second-round selection in 2009. His 215 NHL games qualify as a success for a player chosen No. 40 overall. Names like Tyler Pitlick and Martin Marincin were also successful picks, but fans of the team haven’t had much to brag about in the second round. The team trades the second-round selections frequently and have been hit-and-miss when the picks are used by the club. The are some positive signs in recent years.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: The 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL
- Lowetide: What Blackhawks can learn from Oilers about winning with a generational talent
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
THE SECOND ROUND
Scott Cullen once estimated that second-round picks have a 28 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. The Oilers don’t have their second-round pick on most draft weekends, and 100 games have eluded most of the selections this century.
- 2000: Brad Winchester (Kevin Lowe)
- 2001: Doug Lynch, Eddie Caron (Kevin Lowe)
- 2002: Jeff Deslauriers, Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene (Kevin Lowe)
- 2003: Colin McDonald, Jean-Francois Jacques (Kevin Lowe)
- 2004: Roman Tesliuk, Geoff Paukovich (Kevin Lowe)
- 2005: Taylor Chorney (Kevin Lowe)
- 2006: Jeff Petry (Kevin Lowe)
- 2007: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe)
- 2008: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe)
- 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini)
- 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini)
- 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini)
- 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini)
- 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini)
- 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini)
- 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish)
- 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish)
- 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli)
- 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli)
- 2017: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli)
- 2018: Ryan McLeod, Olivier Rodrigue (Peter Chiarelli)
- 2019: Raphael Lavoie (Ken Holland)
- 2020: No second round selection (Ken Holland)
- 2021: No second round selection (Ken Holland)
- 2022: No second round selection (Ken Holland)
- 2023: Beau Akey (Ken Holland)
TOTAL NHL GAMES
- Jarret Stoll 872
- Jeff Petry 862
- Matt Greene 615
- Brad Winchester 390
- Tyler Pitlick 386
- Martin Marincin 227
- Anton Lander 215
- Taylor Chorney 166
- Jean-Francois Jacques 166
- Colin McDonald 146
- Ryan McLeod 138
- Tyler Benson 38
- David Musil 4
- Doug Lynch 2
- Jeff Deslauriers 2
- Curtis Hamilton 1
The situation with second-round picks since 2011 became so dire I stopped doing this article. It was an annual event for many years on this blog. Why is it back? Ryan McLeod should climb this list and eventually ranks well inside the top five. His speed and progress after arriving in the NHL give him a look of a young man who will spend many years in the league.
ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THINGS
Since McLeod is the only real recent success, the list looks outdated and lacks promise. However, when we run the numbers for the forward using boxcars per 82 NHL games, this are more encouraging.
- Jarret Stoll 14-23-37
- Ryan McLeod 12-15-27
- Colin McDonald 11-15-26
- Tyler Pitlick 12-10-22
- Brad Winchester 8-6-14
- Anton Lander 4-9-13
- Jean-Francois Jacques 4-4-8
- Tyler Benson 2-4-6
At even strength, McLeod is averaging .28 pts-game, while Stoll (he owned a hammer and manned the RH point) averaged .26 pts-game at even strength during his career. Considering McLeod’s foot speed and the fact he has stayed at center in these early years, there’s a chance he’ll be the all-time best forward drafted in the second round this century.
CURRENT GROUP
- “It’s over” arrows: Tyler Benson
- Bad arrows:
- Lukewarm arrows:
- Good arrows: Olivier Rodrigue, Raphael Lavoie, Beau Akey
- Very good arrows:
- Actual NHL player: Ryan McLeod
This is an encouraging piece of the puzzle. The Oilers draft few second rounders and success is rare, but there is one grad and another three players with good arrows. Two of those players are or should be knocking on the NHL door. What’s more, the two Holland picks from the round are trending well and the one time Tyler Wright had a chance to pick in the second round he selected an intriguing goal-scorer in Raphael Lavoie.
PATRICK KANE?
Patrick Kane is rumoured to have the Oilers on his list of possibles for the coming season. In New York, he scored well enough at five-on-five (1.78 per 60) and his goal share (58 percent) was impressive. Expected goal share? 43 percent. His offensive output in Chicago was identical, the outscoring in the low 40’s, expected goals 38 percent. I think signing Patrick Kane as a hockey move is fine, as long as you know you’re not getting Patrick Kane. Time waits for no one.
This place can be pure comedy when you read the comments the following morning.
Truth be told one of the most satisfying Playoff Series wins in Oilers fandom came in 2004 against the mighty Red Wings against our lunch pail Oilers. As game 6 winded down the look on Hollands face wondering how the hell Lowe and MacTavish got the better of him and his team was priceless.
Seems like you’re a closet Flames fan. It was Calgary who defeated them in 2004. Edmonton was 2006.
Oops yes 2006. I worked with lots of Calgary Flames fans since they stole the Atlanta Flames franchise and there was lots of playful and heated banter towards each other. I got the same answer when I asked everyone of them who they hated most on the Oilers was it Gretzky, Messier maybe Semenko, nope. The same answer was always Sather, Sather, Sather, they loathed the man. Now that’s the greatest form of flattery when your that hated by the opposition. Does anybody dislike Kenny Holland probably not maybe Mike Modano. I could see why Detroit had the good cop bad cop routine with Holland and Babcock.
2006
If you’d like to see the impact of psychology and confidence (or lack of confidence), go back and see Manny Legace’s quotes and reactions during that series.
As good as the Oilers played (and yes, they were the better team during those 6 games despite casuals claiming otherwise), Legace also made it incredibly hard on himself. He wasn’t going to win that series.
I haven’t seen much talk here about Bouchard’s m.i.a. contract. Should we be worried? Is one side playing games, being tough negotiators, or just in no rush to sign? Personally, I’m concerned, the delay seems rather mysterious.
Can’t remember who’s reported it, but I saw some article recently that the sides were very close on term, 2 years, and an AAV in the $3.9 million range but that the cash amount each season was the remaining sticking point. It was suggested Bouchard’s side is looking for a meaningfully higher cash salary in the second season to increase the next qualifying offer and help his arbitration case if it comes to that, with the Oilers wanting the 2 seasons salaries to be closer together.
I am not saying these are the numbers but for example, Bouchard might like $2.9 million in year 1 then $4.9 million in year 2. It is still $3.9 AAV over the 2 seasons, but his q.o at the end of the second year to keep him an RFA is the $4.9 million. The Oilers who would probably started at $3.9 million in this scenario for both seasons but move the offer to say $3.5 million for year one and $4.3 million for year 2, the same $3.9 million AAV, but the q.o. to keep his RFA rights is now only the $4.3 million.
The AAV is probably more important to the Oilers to manage 2023 cap space, where long term, Bouchard may place some incremental value beyond this next contract to have a higher second year value amount which improves his negotiating position for his 3rd contract if he plays equal to or greater than expectations. So there may be slight movements in the back and forth on the AAV, but probably not much at this point due to the Oilers cap constraints.
Who knows, maybe the Oiler offer $2 million and $5 million to entice Bouchard with what will result in a high Q.O. for his 3rd contract in exchange for the lower $3.5 million AAV. I am not sure if there is a limit on the difference between the 2 years of the contract other than the league min and league max which is very wide.
I am not worried that a deal won’t get done before camp.
I am not saying these are the numbers but for example, Bouchard might like $2.9 million in year 1 then $4.9 million in year 2. It is still $3.9 AAV over the 2 seasons, but his q.o at the end of the second year to keep him an RFA is the $4.9 million.
The QO is limited to 120% of AAV so it would be $4.68MM in that case
the salary variance in any adjacent years cannot exceed 35% of the salary in the first contract year regardless of whether the salary is increasing or decreasing & the lowest salary year cannot be less than 50% of the highest salary year
Thanks for the clarifications. Was there a change to these particular CBA rules in the 2020 MOU update. Debrincat’s previous contract signed in 2019 had yearly total cash compensations of $5 million, $5 million, then $9 million with an AAV of $6.67 million. The variance from year 2 to year 3 was much greater than 35% of his year one salary.
Yes, the 120% cap on QO came in via 2020 MOU and I think the MOU also altered to permitted variance parameters.
In my opinion, nope.
Almost nothing gets done in the last two weeks of August.
From accounts of both sides, Jackson who was in the know as part of Bouchard’s agency group, and Holland, they are close.
I believe training camp starts September 20.
A ton of time to cross the Ts and dot the Is.
If he has a poor first half, Oilers are going to have to cut bait.
Yes they will.
The problem is that they have no cap room to add, and few assets to attach to make the contract go away. Would a 2024 first-rounder bring back another 1B goaltender plus absorbing 3+ years of future Campbell? I highly doubt it. Would a 2024 first-rounder plus Desharnais? 2024 first-rounder plus Bourgault? Maybe. But the prospect cupboard is bare enough already.
Thankfully, I think there’s a good chance he will bounce back to respectability. But if he doesn’t…..the decision to sign Campbell over Kuemper (or to wait it out for Hellebuyck) might cost the Oilers a Cup.
They should be cutting bait now if they were willing to take risks. Campbell for Hart. Campbell is the perfect goalie for a rebuilding team.
Campbell plus what for Hart though?
And you’d better be pretty confident Hart will be the better goalie going forward.
Recall Campbell had a far better SV% the 2 seasons prior to this last one. Campbell is .907 total over the 3 years to .900 for Hart.
Casey DeSmith
.912
.914
.905
Cap hit $1.8 million
The Coyotes are always open for business. Connor Ingram is $1.95 x3. I like Ingram.
My unpopular opinion was to buyout Campbell. If he doesn’t rebound to a playable level this season, there are no outs during the season.
The price to move out Campbell’s contract during this season, prior to the deadline, would be unfathomable.
Without moving out that contract, there’s no way to bring in another backup given the cap constraints, that I could imagine.
Holland’s doubled down on Mike Smith twice now—both times when it was completely illogical to do so, and it worked out. Let’s hope Holland’s luck holds out.
I thought Holland was the one with no imagination 🙂
If things go sideways they could simply bury Campbell in Bakersfield. They would then have at least $1.15M they could devote to another backup (without considering salary retention by a trade partner).
We’re all hoping Campbell recovers though, right?
Of course, its completely logical to bring Campbell back this season and not buy him out and believe that he’ll post numbers more along the lines of his historical norms.
Just because it was illogical to you doesn’t mean to Holland, who had access vast information you do not have, that it was illogical to him. You have commented about poker odds before, but there are no true insiders in Poker. The actual card odds are available to everyone.
NHL teams have access to way more data and information than than all of the general public, including every amateur and semi professional analytics blogger, so their probability calculations are based off of inside information which can produce vastly different results.
This is it exactly, but goes unrecognized far too often.
Going all in on a pair of nines is not a winning strategy although it works on occasion.
Campbell is hot or unplayable. This is why he’s never gained a net for keeps. Mentally unstable which is not bueno for a keeper
Awful signing. Kenny with the least amount of effort to solve the goaltending issue. Sign the obvious guy. It was absolutely predictable what would happen which did
I mean, the obvious and predictable guy would have been the 2 years older Kuemper.
“Mentally unstable” – aggressive phrasing.
Mentally unstable is an overly harsh way and unnecessary way to describe a person who may have confidence issues in executing a sport.
You’d have to add for sure. But at the same time teams like Winnipeg & Philly still need a goalie. I like Hart because the money works this year. If you can dump Campbell, send a first along and cut bait.
As much as I hate to agree with Toupee DeSmith ain’t a bad option either. Vegas just won the cup with Aiden Hill. Maybe goaltending isn’t as important in the modern nhl with an increase in offence.
As an aside, the NHL is backwards in how they deal with low performing players. Teams shouldn’t be punished so much to punt them. I’m not saying no penalty but maybe the cap hit shouldn’t be so awful. Campbell should be punished for his shit year – if he had been better they could have won the cup.
That’s fair, and it would obviously be nice to switch Campbell out for Hart.
You can’t ‘punish’ everyone for every shit year though (or you don’t need to). Hart had a season worse than Campbell’s a couple of year back. The difference is we watched Campbell’s up close.
It would cost a significant amount to move on from Campbell. He also has a pretty long track record of above average goaltending. And goalies who’ve had shit seasons like he did usually bounce back (like Hart did).
I think you need to give him a chance to recover, because he probably will. The alternative is spending a 1st or more to get rid of him, and then replace him with someone who’s almost as likely to have a shit year next season.
With the ascendance of Skinner we have the luxury of giving Campbell this year before a decision needs to be made.
Imagine a timeline where Duncan Keith and Patrick Kane have worn Oilers jerseys. Never in a million years could I ever imagine even one of them being Oilers.
I know, they are/were past their primes. But still, they are Duncan Keith and Patrick freaking Kane! Wearing Oilers jerseys that are not photoshopped, or screenshots from EA’s NHL series.
I wonder if Toews and Kane will be a package deal somewhere? Would be pretty cool to have them with Hollway on a line come playoff time.
If they both come back to the NHL halfway through the season and the Oilers are really rolling maybe Edmonton is somewhere they would consider.
2003 was a bad year to whiff on mot only 1st round but 2 x 2nd round…
Pat Kane?
Watching the 2009-10 Blackhawks play the hapless DOD Oilers back then was something. Seeing crisp passes on the tape all over the ice, I had thought Quenville was a genius who had invested a new way to play the game.
Back to my running joke about how you can’t win the cup with Colin Fraser on your team…
We’ve already had four players from that roster on our team (five if you count Versteeg).
Wow, I had to go look that up.
Perhaps slowly slowly working our way up Hall of Famers from that roster? 🙂
10-11 Colin Fraser
11-12 Ben Eager
11-12 Cam Barker
21-22 Duncan Keith
23-24 Kane and/or Toews?
Isn’t that what Ken Holland used to be famous for… offering older superstar players the chance to win a cup for a 1-year contract around a million bucks?
I guess you know they weren’t always cheap, but yeah the list of older players he brought in who won cups in Detroit is pretty impressive.
Holland’s three cup winning teams included: Chris Chelios, Brett Hull, Igor Larionov, Dominic Hasek, Luc Robataille, Brian Rafalski, Dallas Drake, Steve Duchesne, Jamie Macouin, Frederik Olausson. I believe all were at least 34 when they won.
No Cap except for his final Cup the playing field wasn’t exactly level compared to 18- 20 other teams including the Oilers.
And that last Cup, in the 3rd year with the salary cap, featured all of Chelios, Hasek, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Osgood, Draper, Maltby, McCarty and Holmstrom age 34 or older. Plus Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Stuart, Cleary, Franzen, Hudler and Filppula who were younger.
Seems kinda like nothing changed, right?
And maybe even that you shouldn’t discount everything that happened pre Cap (except of course for the 80’s Oilers who you love to talk about).
From what I remember Bowman and Jimmy were the reasons the all-star CCCP decided to come to Detroit. Lidstrom and Yzerman were already in place without the Russian Connection I don’t see 3 Cups do you?
Ken Holland was director of Detroit amateur scouting with a focus on Europe and convinced Jimmy to draft Lidstrom, Federov and a host of other European players from 1989 through to when he took over as GM.
I guess you’re forgetting that Holland was scouting director and then assistant GM in building those Red Wings teams?
He was scouting director when they drafted:
Primeau, Sillinger, Lapointe and Eriksson in the 1st
McCarty, Dandenault, Boughner and Pushor 2nd
Lidstrom, Osgood and Kozlov in the 3rd
Fedorov and Knuble in the 4th
Drake in the 6th
York in the 7th
Holmstrom and McGillis in the 10th
Konstantinov in the 11th
And he was AGM when they traded for/signed:
Shanahan, Murphy, Larionov, Fetisov and Vernon among others.
Holland was very much a key in building those teams, in addition to being actually in big chair for 3 of their 4 Cups (the only team since the Oilers to win 4 Cups).
A scouting director is not calling the shots over G.M Murray, Devellano or Legend Scotty Bowman. Next time your over at Kenny’s place for tea and crumpets ask him who the architect was behind loading up on the Red Army All-Stars.
I would highly recommend that you watch the recent The Drop on Oilers Plus on the draft and you’ll see exactly how much Holland relies on his scouting director for picks after the first round.
Thanks I will good Sir.
He’s definitely a Legend in Detroit and he should be he’ll go down as a great G.M yet that means shit to me. I’m not a Red Wing Fan I’m a Alberta Oiler fan. If he doesn’t win a Cup in Edmonton this year do you extend him and for how long. After how many years of not winning a Cup does the over jealous ass kissing of Kenny continue
Win a cup, win a cup, win a cup.
No draft picks, no draft picks, no draft picks.
Pick a lane!
What I’m trying to get across is it’s difficult for a Veteran team physically and mentally to go 82 games without injuries or getting burnt out. We need to rest players off and on if their nicked up it’s not the end of the world if Holloway or say Lavoie play a few games in the top 6 For me this especially applies to our D who looked frankly tired against L.A and especially Vegas. We have great forward depth but our depth on D could sewer our season. What are your thoughts on this especially the D depth in a gruelling regular season.
That is a topic we could discuss but has nothing to do with what we had been discussing.
With respect, half of your responses generally have nothing to do with the topic – its wild.
On the D depth, yes, I have some concerns – after Vinny, well, its a competition among Nimeo, Noel H., Kemp and Gleason. Although I’ve got this feeling Noel H. could be a player and Kemp could be a legit shut down d-man if he’s able to defend the rush at the NHL level, the depth is unproven.
Hence why I have not been for moving Kulak even as a guy that believes Broberg needs to play 14+ min per night.
There’s a reason we don’t have D depth in Bakersfield is there not or was Kesserling just a mirage. You can’t completely empty the cupboards
Very few teams are going to have D-men assigned to their AHL teams that will be able to make material positive impact to a Stanley Cup run.
Detroit didn’t have McDavid. Burning daylight and way out of touch
Nope, no McDavid, just the likes of Lidstrom, Federov, Yzerman, Datsyuk, etc.
I know accuracy isn’t your thing, but you do live in the past.
Give this a watch; it’s both informative and entertaining.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8006926/
You have Zero idea how powerful the Ex KGB Russian Mafa was back then and still is. A lot of money again from the richer than Jesus Christ owners Ilitch of Little Ceasars exchanged hands with a number of certain upstanding Russian individuals.
You know nothing of what I know and don’t.
Quit putting words in my mouth.
Watch the documentary. It’s right up your alley. Maybe you learn something, and possibly quit spouting lies and falsehoods on the blog.
I’m just going by your history on here.
Either provide an example or quit wasting my time.
You’re pissing on the rug.
You just said I was living in the past so if I have this correctly only your past matters. I beg to differ wippersnapper.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d0790ce3-d194-43c6-a508-e17084398fa3
…and that rug ties the whole room together, man. (with apologies to Jeff Bridges)….
What gets me about that team, especially, is how few players were drafted and developed by DET while Holland was either the scouting director, or A/GM.
2008? Hmm. Well Holland had been GM for 11 seasons at that point.
Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Osgood and McCarty were still with the team after being drafted and developed while Holland was scouting director or AGM.
Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hudler, Franzen, Filppula, Kronwall, Kopecky and Helm were all drafted and developed while he was GM, and Lebda was signed as a college FA and developed.
The rest were outside additions. Maltby and Draper were still there from the time when he was scouting director or AGM.
Plus Rafalski, Cleary, Chelios, Hasek, Samuelsson, Lilja and Drake acquired while he was GM (Drake was a Holland draft and develop who returned for a Cup at age 39).
There was lots of draft and develop going on, just not that many left from 11+ season prior.
Thanks, jp, I couldn’t have said it better if I tried.
How many Cups do the Oilers win without a Cap 10-11 maybe more the way Sather knew when to cut bait. Do you want me name all the Oiler players Sather accumulated on welfare vouchers. So in 20 years from now no one suppose to reminisce about McDavid going through 4 Rangers like a knife through warm butter are Leon scoring 4 against Vegas in the Playoffs. Starting to sound more and more like you were on the wrong horse back in the glory days.
Your hero Sather, who bragged about what he could do with a big $ budget, had the Rangers out spend the Red Wings in salary when there was still no cap and yet missed the playoffs the first 4 seasons he was their GM 2000-2004. His modest success with them only occurred after the cap came in with one cup final appearance in the 19 years he was president (15 as GM). His draft record overall in his time with the Rangers was pretty abysmal as well.
Sather started with a skinny kid who was won in a backgammon game. Do you know how much the Whalers, Nordiques Jets and Oilers got raped in the expansion draft. Sather revolutionized the game Holland not even close.Sather has 5 Cups on a shoestring Holland has 3 Cups on a Little Caesar fortune. Your the one ridiculing and bullying H.H all the time on how results only matter. Your fascination for Holland who was gifted 2 MVP Centres in their prime but has yet to deliver is kind of comical.
Actually Sather should be credited with 6 Cups after the New York Oilers won in 1994 because of Sather.
Aiding and abetting the enemy is considered treason to most people.
The team was on the brink if it wasn’t for Lloydminister quietly ponying up 20% were the Edmonton Coyotes. Sather handed over the reins to Lowe and took the retirement package in New York his heart was always a Oiler. Sounds kinda like your hero taking 25 large and probably more important to him possibly setting up his kid for the dream job. Don’t get me wrong I don’t mind some of the things Holland’s done. He’s stabilized the franchise brought in some top 6ers. I loved the Ekholm acquisition and I’m one of the few on a Island that think Campbell can be a huge part of us winning a Cup.
I agree. He also thinks he capped out. Obviously not interested in other GMs moving contracts and also gaining assets in doing it
Seems to think Ceci is good as first pair. Sad IMO. It will cost another season. Or he’ll blow out all the draft picks overpaying for another old guy who should cost half of what he pays
There should be a Statue of Sather right next to Gretzky’s and when passing by it you should have to remove you hat and bow your head in silence out of respect.
It might be fuzzy memories but I thought the decade of darkness Oilers actually played well against the Hawks.
Perhaps Gagner’s 8 point night is skewing my memory.
I think I have this right. Holland has traded 16 picks and acquired 4 in his tenure the traded are a 1st,4th,3rd,3rd,5th,4th,2nd,2nd,4th,3rd,2nd,7th,4th,1st,3rd,2nd. His acquired picks are a 6th,6th,7th,1st. Holland believes in a team full of veterans no interest in drafting and developing no Esa Tikkanen types need apply on Holland’s field of dreams. In the new N.H.L with the IR strategy Vegas and Tampa adopted a veteran team will have more injuries a sore back here a twisted wrist there a knee scope at a certain point in the season for another veteran. As we all know all this can be timed out so the team of Veterans is rested in good health and way over the Cap come Playoff time.
Since Holland’s arrival in EDM, plenty of players have graduated from BAK and are contributing in the NHL, whether it’s here or elsewhere.
You keep hammering this false narrative that he doesn’t develop prospects. Prospect development was exactly his reputation before arriving, and he’s been true to form while here. Slow play the prospects, bring them up when they’re ready and avoid dashing their confidence with the Yo-Yo development model.
Also, you complain (loudly and often) about Holland trading picks. Well which is it? Do you want him to go all in and make the most of the Cup window? Or develop prospects? Draft picks and prospects are currency.
This isn’t hard to fathom.
Not 1 of Holland’s picks has graduated to a every day NHler. I’m cheering like hell for Lavoie who Holland could of slow played straight to another team. As for Broberg, Holloway and Bourgault the jury is still out. If your pleased just making the Playoffs and winning a round or two like the Flames fans so be it. I’m not I want Cups! Results matter in the real world especially in the City of Champions who have won 5 previous Stanley Cups young fella. It’s year 5 for Holland time is ticking….
Never change. You’re a constant source of irony and hypocrisy. It’s like clockwork. I could make a fortune betting against you whenever you say “book it.” You’re like the Jim Cramer of the board when it comes to making predictions.
You have zero idea what measure of success is adequate for me. You wouldn’t listen if I told you. Keep your assumptions to yourself.
As our gracious host says so often, one must wait five years to judge a prospect. So Broberg and Lavoie are on deck. As for the rest, time will tell.
Players drafter after Raphael Lavoie in the 2019 draft (Holland’s First) that have played 100+ NHL games….Nils Hoglander (141). Players that have played 50+ Brett Leason (90), Aliaksei Protas (91), Matias Maccelli (87), Mark Kastelic (81). Expecting Holland to have hit a home run on a second rounder or later by now isn’t realistic. Broberg and Holloway will play 200+ games but young players take time. There are only three players taken after Ryan McLeod at 40 in 2018 that have more games played and/or more points. Sean Durzi, Philipp Kurashev and Yegor Sharangovich. Holland has his faults but blaming him for not turning out players from draft picks while also saying “time is ticking” just doesn’t make sense. Ekholm helps you win now. Number 24 pick Tanner Molendyck could be really good in five years.
McLeod was drafted by ChiaPete, otherwise you’re spot on with the context (which is unfortunately, historically, lost on your intended audience).
Hmmm… you aren’t HH’s evil twin Skippy, are you? Two peas in a pod.
Your brother Darryl doesn’t happen to have the same name as you do or does he?
To continue to opine that Ken Holland has no interest in drafting and developing is mind-boggling to me given his career history and the development model for the kids that are drafted.
I going to remain optimistic that the use of draft picks as trade currency for immediate roster improvements for a team that is looking to win the Stanley Cup in the immediate does not need to be explained.
I don’t necessarily like all his “futures for immediate help” moves – I didn’t like the Bjugstad cost the day the trade was made – but I certainly understand what he is trying to do.
Sure trade picks but lets recoup as well. 16-4 difference. Can’t blame Kassian for everything. We recieved nothing for Yamamoto and Jesse some G.M’s are pretty sharp on their player evaluation they know who’s in their future plans and know when to pull the trigger. Hindsight might be 20/20 which the great ones have. I’ll go down swinging that the Keith trade hinged on that 3rd rounder. Not!
We traded the rights to sign a player who priced himself off the team, for the privilege of buying out Yamamoto. So a net cap gain, not only for the upcoming season but the one following. A tidy bit of business to all but the least shrewd observers.
But go on, ignore the basics/fundamental facts of the situation (even as they’ve been pointed out to you a dozen times prior) to spin a flimsy narrative. The rest of your post equivocates into disarray, which is par for the course, and merits no reply.
Yes, recouping some picks would be nice but that also requires assets out to do so….
You examples made little sense – how do you spend day after day after day talking about how Yamo has stone hands and needs to be bought out and then think the Holland could recoup a draft pick for him?
Similar concept with Jesse.
What did you see the return on Yamamoto being after he had his career year and scored 20? When you have the 2 best Centres in the league there’s a time to pump and dump. What did you see the return being on Jesse a few years ago?
The game isn’t get the most draft picks, it’s et the best team. Draft picks are only one part of procurement. Picks turn into prospects turn into players. And then there’s undrafted/college/unsigned Euros, etc. You have to look at the whole spectrum for a team, not just one source of players. Context makes a difference.
Yes the Jurco, Hass, Nygard and Kahun signings were a stroke of genius were they not?
Some draft picks can and should be used as commodities at the right time but it needs to be used on the right player not some disinterested Dmitry Kulikov.
Kane had 57 points last season, and was a plus player in 19 regular season games as a Ranger. Had 6 points in 7 playoff games too.
He’s not even 35 yet. Sure, he won’t be an Art Ross candidate as he has been his whole career, but this is a top-6 player all day long.
For sure a top-6 on almost all teams in the NHL right now.
Maybe Toews is waiting to see where Kane decides to go. Imagine if Kane picks EDM and Toews wants in too for another run at a cup.
Of course, both would have to be league min contracts, but I’d take Kane/Toews at a combined 1.5M all day, everyday.
Agreed. Maybe most impressive are his on ice goal differentials compared to his team.
Last 5 seasons Kane On vs. Kane Off:
18-19 56% – 46% (ON – OFF)
19-20 59% – 45%
20-21 51% – 40%
21-22 49% – 38%
22-23 CHI 42% – 37%
22-23 NYR 58% – 57%
(full disclosure, he did get outscored in 17-18, but that was the only one of the 10 seasons that I didn’t show)
And playoffs:
2020 53% – 44%
2023 75% – 57%
If Kane’s willing to sign with the Oilers, given our cap constraints, it’s a no-brainer.
Even on the third line with Foggy and the Highlander, I could see a fit.
Is this based on Arthur Staples or is there more?
Of course, 100%, I take P. Kane over the likes of Pederson, Lavoie, Sutter, etc. but I’m not sure he comes in at the league min cost.
Even though I have to take him over “tweeners”, does he “make the Oilers first PP unit” presuming health?
I mean, slide him in to 2RW over Brown (although I have hesitation with Drai have a “meh” defensive RW – in particular if his LW is Kane, another meh defensive winger) – I’m sure they’ll figure it out though.
Does Patty Kane even play in the top six in Edmonton at this stage of his career?
Does he play ahead of Hyman & Brown? I could see him on a third line with Foegele & MacLeod. What does that mean for Dylan Holloway when they go with a veteran fourth line?
(Janmark-Sutter-Ryan) Have to admit those are 4 solid lines though. Hopefully Dylan Holloway breaks out so that Patrick Kane won’t even be a consideration.
I just don’t see how Sutter makes this team after being off for two years at his age.
I don’t think you should count him out. But who knows Holloway could even be a better option as a fourth line center? And so might Pederson. I guess there’re plenty of story lines.
I’ve got real time for Holloway as 4C – he has center pedigree (his pop season at Wisconsin was as a center and he played a bit there late in his AHL games).
With that said, I actually don’t think its viable on this team:
1) mainly, I don’t see Woody being able to commit 12 plus 5 on 5 minutes for any fourth line and, given Holloway won’t see any real special team minutes, I don’t think its a good place for him.
2) I do think that Holloway would benefit from playing with some more skill – even the bump in skill to McLeod/Foegele from Janmark/Ryan is real (in my opinion).
I remain “hopeful” that Sutter can – I mean, he’s the “perfect fit” – big, physical, right shot center that is a great PK guy and great faceoff guy (with a hisotry of scoring some goals in the league).
At the same time, I 100% agree with you.
Sutter was barely hanging on 3 years ago – always hurt and not playing well when he was playing – now, he’s 34, coming off of 2 years battling health and not playing hockey – its seems unlikely that he can help a championship contending team.
I can hope though.
Patrick Kane would still play top 6 on a great deal of teams.
Patrick Kane had 21 goals and 57 points in 73 games last season – while playing hurt for most of it.
Yes, Patrick Kane remains a much more impactful offensive player than Connor Brown – even if Connor Brown wasn’t coming off major knee surgery.
Maybe Toews comes back at the trade deadline for $1M? That’s the veteran presence I’d want on this club. Wishing him good health in his time off.
Patrick Kane isn’t a ‘meh’ defensive player, he totally incapable or unwilling to play defense.
Based on what?
I’m thinking this is a bit aggresive – his GA/60 rates through his entire career have been good to very good (often well below 2.5 GA/60).
I know that’s a flawed stat but i’m not sure the above is true.
If you want a player that doesn’t give effort in the defensive zone – take a look at Zack Hyman – take a look at how the Oilers leak goals when he’s on the ice without McDavid – its very very bad.
Should we cut a little slack for the injury he battled last season?
And on his GF% vs xGF%, his real always outpaces his expected (13 of his last 14 seasons).
Your point is well taken, but I suspect Kane has more left in the tank than the numbers you posted suggest.
Draisaitl, too.
This is completely off the topic of hockey, but Robbie Robertson’s passing has had me all week. My mother passed the day before my birthday, just a few months ago, and we had a complicated relationship. I loved her dearly, like all people love their parents, but she suffered from mental illness issues brought on in no small part by an extremely abusive childhood, and it could make things difficult. After my parents split when I was a kid, it put a lot of responsibility; a weight, as she had genuine trouble keeping her life in order, and that didn’t go away as she moved on into her senior years.
One area our lives where we did connect well was with the music of The Band. Robertson was a cousin, and though they weren’t in each other lives since they were kids, he was important to her. He was a thing in our family; a source of pride for her. For me, it was the music, and I treasure their catalogue. I’ve seen several youtube videos this past week, where people who are unfamiliar with The Band share their reaction to hearing their music for the first time, and it was great to see these young people loving what they were hearing.
Anyway. I don’t mean to bring things down around here, and I can’t even really call myself a member of his community when my posts here are so few that nobody could hope to know who I am. It seemed to me that a lot of people here are the right age that they’ll get it, and I’ve seen how The Band has come up here from time to time, so I wanted to mention this bit about Robertson and my mother.
She’s the one who sent me here with regard for everyone.
If you’re here, you are a member.
Fallen Angel is a good Robertson track for hard times like these. Take care, amigo.
Thanks so much for sharing. I have long contended, and will continue to do so, that the Weight is the single greatest song ever written.
It’s a good song, but I think a stretch to call it the greatest song ever written. That said, all subjective to each listener, so not sure you’d get a lot of agreement on this topic.
Thanks for sharing, this probably wasn’t easy to put out there. Take care.
Great song and musician my go to song is Epitaph by King Crimson.
Jarrett Stoll was a beauty hit in the 2nd need these types to get over the top. Jarrett was 55.5 at the dot career wise and I would have to say well over 60% when it mattered most.
I’ll just point out that Stoll was a draft re-entry. LT likes to remind others of older players at the draft, and maybe Stoll is the star of this group.
Datsyuk, followed closely by Zetterberg.
Zetterberg was drafted in his first year of eligibility. He has an October birthday, so he was born in 1980 and drafted in June 2019, while he was still 18. That he lasted till the 7th round before he was drafted is what makes his career remarkable. He continued to play in Europe till he was 22 before joining the Wings. Of course that is consistent with Holland’s development philosophy anyway, and its not like they needed him yet, winning the cup for the 3rd time in 6 seasons in the season before Zetterberg joined them.
Datsyuk was however overlooked his first 2 years of eligibility and then still not taken till the 6th round in 1998, when he was 20. It is believed that Detroit’s Swedish scout was the only NHL scout to actually have seen him play live prior to the -98 draft.
Mark Recchi is also a late draft wonder story. Passed over twice, he was drafted after his 20th birthday still only in the 4th round after scoring 154 points in 62 games. That he got passed over in his 2nd year of eligibility after getting 76 points in only 40 games is a little odd. He showed all the scouts (and he would have been seen by a lot) what they obviously overlooked, being a very significant contributor to 3 Stanley Cup Championships with 3 different teams. He lead his team in regular season scoring on 8 occasions including with the Penguins when Lemieux was hurt and the Flyers twice with Lindros. He holds the Flyers record for points in a season. He is probably the most under appreciated 1,500 point NHL player. He is also 30th all time in playoff scoring as well so he scored when it mattered. At least he is in the NHL Hall of Fame.
Nick Lidstrom was passed over in his first year as well, and then drafted in the 3rd round at 19.
So was Brett Hull. Eligible in 1983, drafted in ’84 in the 6th round a few months shy of his 20th birthday.
Good catch. I was thinking Lidstrom as an overager, as JP alluded to. For some reason my brain always links Z and D as a pair.
Stoll re-entered the draft not because the Flames didn’t want him, but the sides couldn’t come to an agreement on an ELC. Near the deadline for him to be signed, his rights were traded to the Leafs who got him to sign a contract, but they didn’t get it faxed to the league before the deadline passed so he had to go back into the draft. The Oilers had a similar problem that season with Lombardi, whose stock had risen but he didn’t sign, went back in the draft and was selected by the Flames. It is like the Oilers and the Flames traded Stoll for Lombardi, who both went on to play over 500 games.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/strange-exchange-the-parallel-re-drafts-of-jarret-stoll-and-matthew-lombardi
Neither Stoll nor Lombardi would really qualify as older drafted players. After their initial draft at age 18, both players stock as prospects rose, but were drafted again at 20 not because they’d been overlooked, but only because they wouldn’t sign with the team that drafted them, at least not at the terms they were being offered.
Jayden Grubbe’s story has some similarities to Stoll, with his stock improving somewhat since draft day, but with he and his draft team not coming to an agreement, he would have gone back in the draft. He very likely would have been drafted again, but the Oilers instead got his rights in a trade and got his signed contract to the league in time. Hopefully, he turns out to have a career that approaches Stoll’s.
Did the Rangers and Grubbe “not come to an agreement” or did they just not offer him an entry level contract?
It is vague as to whether or not the Rangers ever discussed any contract with him in the 2 seasons they held his NHL playing rights. This is an excerpt from the Toronto Star article on the Oilers trading for and signing Grubbe:
“The Rangers selected Grubbe in the third round (65th overall) in 2021 but never reached an agreement on an entry-level deal.”
Even if the Rangers didn’t ultimately offer him a contract, since the Rangers were his only path during that period to an NHL contract, it is still accurate to say they never came to an agreement however that result is arrived at. It is just like we don’t actually know what talks transpired between Stoll and the Flames, the Oilers and Lombardi or for that matter between the Oilers and Blumel, who became a free agent a while back when he didn’t have a contract with the Oilers.
Fedorov was drafted at 20, in the 4th round.
I think that was the first year Soviets/Russians were even eligible.
It was a feat of forward thinking that paid off handsomely. Far from being the unimaginative dolt Holland is being portrayed as, by some.
If they acquire Kane, are they building an all star team, or a team that can win the cup. Pesce makes more sense to me
Beyond Kane almost certainly being much cheaper assets and AAV-wise, I don’t see how “building an all-star team” is at all fair.
The guy has 3 Cups, a Conn Smythe and a bunch of international medals. He’s been a major out scorer and done a lot of winning in his career.
They’d be a fun to team to watch in the regular season with Kane.
Yeah, I don’t understand why you’re trying to suggest Kane wouldn’t also help in the playoffs.
Maybe not, gritty players are needed. Refs are so inconsistent in the playoffs.
You can say ‘maybe not’ about any individual. Pesce had the worst GF% (39) and xGF% (45) of all Carolina defenders this past playoff.
Kane has been a consistent outscorer. His 54 games in Chicago this season were almost the only exception in his career.
And Pesce – If he was available to the Oilers at the same asset cost and salary then I agree Pesce would help more. No question. We know he’ll cost more assets though, and his AAV will almost certainly be higher as well. It’s not the same conversation at all.
I was thinking similar. Pesce would help a ton, but not sure it’s that feasible either. Kane on a deal that makes it no-risk would be worth it. Kane on a pro-rated $4 million plus deal, would be a non-starter IMO.
Yeah, you’d assume they aren’t going to trade a couple of guys to make room for him (if he were at $4M).
Having Kane at 2RW, and moving Brown down to 3RW, is creating even more championship level depth, no?
I’m not in love with the idea of bringing Kane in as I’m not sure he has the 2-way game that is needed to play with Drai but he would make the lineup deeper.
Don’t see it happening.
Early one today Al!
It sure would be a hoot and a holler to watch the Oilers raising Kane…to have both players in the same line up would be damn fun. That’s taking in to account that neither is peak Kane, but they are two guys with swagger, and something left in the tank. It would be a fun ride!
Speaking of raising cain, that hailstorm last night scared the hell out of us when it really hit the West End…hope nobody had any damage. Have yet to walk the back of my yard but that was a hell of a thing.