Low Budget!

by Lowetide

I always thought Andrej Sekera was a great target in free agency. He was mobile, skilled, had good years remaining and was good enough to play up and down the lineup as required. Maybe he wasn’t a top pairing blue, but any fool could see he was bona fide top-4 D.

Now, what do you pay for free agents in Edmonton? Among the 31 teams, there are better and worse destinations for free agents, I think the market has spoken and there’s a premium in dollars and years. Sekera signed a six-year deal, $33 million for a $5.5 million AAV.

What would have have signed for with (say) Tampa Bay? Great weather, tax situation ideal. Say, four years and $4.5 million? Is that fair? Maybe we’ll make it $4.5 million times five years. So, the Lightning save $1,000,000 a year on the cap and spend one less year worrying about injury.

If we can agree those things are true, why don’t fans factor those facts in when a free agent signs here? Why do fans fail to make the connection going forward when we can all agree looking back? Damnable question, don’t have the answer.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanKen Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

LOW BUDGET

We’ve talked about Brett Connolly for weeks now as a free-agent option, I think the Oilers will have a look at him. Will the team be able to afford him? I refer you to the passages above. They may have to overpay for him because that’s the marketplace. Ken Holland can’t change the taxes and he can’t move 2,000 palm trees to Crestwood so we are here. I’m going to list the Matt Cane free-agent dollars below. PLEASE do not send me angry emails if the actual cost to Edmonton is greater than the Cane estimate.

FREE AGENT FORWARDS, VOLUME 1

Connolly should be pursued, but at what price? If he can command $4.5 million times 3, should the Oilers pursue? The club could sign Donskoi or Ennis for far less, and possibly add another free agent from this list.

So the question for today: Would you rather Connolly, or Donskoi/Carr, or Ennis/Pirri?

LOW BUDGET

Magnus Paajarvi scored 11 goals for $900,000; Kenny Agostino posted 24 points for $700,000; Taylor Leier scored 22 goals in the AHL; Jean Sebastian Dea played in the NHL and flourished in the AHL; Riley Barber scored 31 AHL goals; Andrew Poturalski scored 70 AHL points; Michael Sgarbossa scored 30 AHL goals. Fussy Britches mentioned Ville Leskinen, I don’t know much about him (EP page here). Oilers have informed the agents for Tobias Rieder and Ty Rattie they’re on the Lido Shuffle, so someone is coming in. I remain convinced Tyler Benson has a clear shot at this roster.

2019 OILERS DEVELOPMENT CAMP

The kids are in town for a few days and there are lots of chances to see this year’s prospects. Details are here.

Goalies (3): Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue

Defense (7) Philip Broberg*; Evan Bouchard, Matt Cairns*, Leon Huttl; Phil Kemp, Michael Kesselring; Dmitri Samorukov*

Forwards (11) L Matej Blumel; LC Skyler Brind’Amour; R Cam Hebig; RC Raphael Lavoie; R Kirill Maksimov; LC Tomas Mazura; LC Ryan McLeod; L Graham McPhee; L Patrik Siikanen; L Nolan Vesey; R Taylor Ward.

I know some of you are likely disappointed the top 20 landed at The Athletic, but I can tell you there’s a new offer that gets you a year for less than $4 a month (link is here). The piece is 4,000 words and it’s a helluva list this year.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we’re back on the air, TSN1260. Corey Pronman, Jason Gregor and Hart from PuckPedia join us as we talk draft and free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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CallighenMan

Jordan: 48.00% – the combined federal and provincial tax rate in Alberta for all direct income over $307,548 dollars annually in 2018.

There is no state income tax in Florida – only the US Federal Income Tax of 36.3% in 2018.

So, lets use a salary of 4M as an example.

Alberta taxes:
4,000,000 – 307,548 (that’s taxed at lower rates) is 3,692,452 – the amount taxed at the highest rate.

That leads to a taxed amount of 1,772,376.96 and a take home amount of 1,920,075.04 (plus a larger portion of the 307,548, which I have not calculated)

Florida Taxes:
1,340,360.076

To ensure we’re comparing apples to apples, I’m removing the same amount from the Florida salary, as I am not as familiar with tax rates and brackets in the states, so I’m only going to play this game on the dollars that I know will be comparable.

4,000,000 – 307,548 that’s taxed at lower rates is 3,692,452 – the amount taxed at the highest rate.
That leads to a taxed amount of 1,340,360.076 and a take home amount of 2,352,091.924 (plus a larger portion of the 307,548, which I have not calculated)

So, on that comparable 3.7M, the player would take home about 432,016.884 more in Florida than in Alberta in 2018.

As anyone with any experience with math will tell you, this works out to an 11.7% premium that the player in Florida will earn compared to the player in Alberta.This could also have been calculated by just subtracting the two tax rates, but I don’t do this kind of math often, so forgot while I was running the calculations.Lol.

So, the more a player earn, the bigger the “premium” required by Edmonton to equal the dollars offered by the non-state tax teams:Dallas, Vegas, Tampa Bay and Florida.

Of course, the only of those teams that has money right now is Florida and Dallas.

Here’s a list of the different tax rates in the states:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_income_tax

Here’s the taxes in Canada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_taxes_in_Canada

Basically, there are a few areas that have real advantages to sign FAs, but there are a lot that pay comparable or more taxes than Edmonton.

These are tangible differences.The intangible differences (waether, culture, family life, crime, etc…) that impact quality of life are certainly considerations, but estimating those in terms of expected salary inflation are much more difficult to quantify.

Anyone need a thesis topic?

Why do so many people on this site completely ignore the exchange rate? US dollars are paid to all players. Canadian-based players get a large discount on housing and all living expenses in the home team city during the season and all year if they live in Canada year-round.

ArmchairGM

Professor Q: Was this based on the Nurse for Nylander/Marner talks (or whatever that rumour was)?

If I know Toronto the talks involved Nurse for Kadri. GTFO with the Nylander/Marner talk! Don’t you know that any player in the Leafs organization is by default worth twice the equivalent loser Oilers player?!

ArmchairGM

Pouzar:
Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) · Twitter

Would have to think Brett Connolly makes a lot of sense for the Oilers. Lots of experience, cup winner, 52 goals last 3 seasons, Western Canadian. Ideal complimentary goal scoring winger for either McDavid or RNH.
11 mins ago

And so it goes…

Professor Q

jp,

My mistake as well (I did add in later that by 30 point player, I was referring to the 29 point season and other high 20s).

People were suggesting Larsson and a 1st or 2nd or highly skilled prospect for Kadri (or, hey, maybe this was me imagining what they meant by Larsson ++ being fair value). Maybe it was hyperbole but I don’t think it would go down like that. Was this based on the Nurse for Nylander/Marner talks (or whatever that rumour was)?

The Russell thing got carried away but yes the Leafs don’t trade Kadri for him, and, hey, maybe he doesn’t even waive to go to Toronto anyway. But I do believe that he has value and his contract was signed at a time when Edmonton needed him, and other teams wanted him. People seemed more upset with the term at the time, right? Who else could we even have signed?

I’m just going to move on though. I’ll leave it at me not wanting to trade for Kadri nor seeing the point. I’m very certain that Holland knows better than I do anyway so I’ll go with what he goes for.

jp

Yeti: Our babies done grown up. Crap, I’m feeling old right now.

Haha, yup. I should probably give up on my dream of being drafted too 🙂

jp

Professor Q: Learn to read qualifiers.

There’s no need for that.

Your comparison is quite a stretch and your qualifier was more than a little vague. “higher skilled version of Kassian with Tom Wilson mixed in” brings your mind directly to dirty play leading to suspensions? It’s possible, but far from obvious.

Professor Q: Kassian has also scored 30 points before

Zack Kassian has never scored 30 points. In the NHL. In a single season. Are you taking about junior?

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=106835

Professor Q:
jp,

I never suggested trading Russell, let alone trading Russell for Kadri, so I don’t know why you keep suggesting that I have.

Apologies for that. Others suggested the trade and you were involved with the following:

“Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much (Russell + +). Are you trolling right now? It seems like it. He’s a higher-level Kassian mixed with a Tom Wilson, and the Leafs are backed into a corner.
Also, Russell’s contract does not have negative value. He is an effective and sought-after D-Man who got paid market value. Just because many on here disagreed with him being paid said market value, with term, specifically by Edmonton (when Edmonton was desperately trying to get any D they could), does not negate that fact.”

My mistake.

Pouzar

Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) · Twitter

Would have to think Brett Connolly makes a lot of sense for the Oilers. Lots of experience, cup winner, 52 goals last 3 seasons, Western Canadian. Ideal complimentary goal scoring winger for either McDavid or RNH.
11 mins ago

Pouzar

Yeti: I like that kind of bet! Hope he joins.

Seems Holland is throwing whatever he can against the wall to see what sticks to try and re-build the bottom six with some speed and tenacity.

EDIT: I love these bets as well.

Pouzar

OriginalPouzar: This is simply fantastic info on the depth chart – thank you so much.

Send him to Sweden all day every day. I dunno “why” this works but it does and the list of Swedish NHL d-men that have gone this route is substantial. Not to say the Woodguy way isn’t valid (Alex Edler) but I think the overwhelming majority have stayed home in their draft plus 1 year and more.

ArmchairGM

greenshifter:
ArmchairGM,

Seems like acquisition costs and contracts for top 4 Dmen are too steep a price nowadays.

Draft and develop your own is my thinking there.

Any good player is going to cost a lot to sign though, why restrict yourself to defensemen in the 1st round? Looking at the 16 best players players drafted in the range of 7-10 over the past decade or so, I’d say targeting forwards is more appropriate:

F
Jeff Skinner: $72M ($9M x 8)
Mark Scheifele: $49M ($6.125M x 8)
Sean Couturier: $26M ($4.33 x 6)
Bo Horvat: $33M ($5.5M x 6)
William Nylander: $45M ($7M x 6)
Nikolaj Ehlers: $42M ($6M x 7)
Timo Meier: RFA, estimated $35M ($5.8M x 6)
Mikko Rantanen: RFA, estimated $80M ($10M x 8)

D
Dougie Hamilton: $34.5M ($5.75M x 6)
Jonas Brodin: $25M ($4.167M x 6)
Matt Dumba: $30M ($6M x 5)
Jacob Trouba: RFA, estimated $36M ($7.2M x 5)
Darnell Nurse: $6.4M ($3.2M x 2)
Rasmus Ristolainen: $32.4M ($5.4M x 6)
Ivan Provorov: RFA, estimated $39.6M ($6.6M x 6)
Zach Werenski: RFA, estimated $48M ($6.85M x 7)

F: $382M over 6.875 years on average = $6.95M
D: $251.9M over 5.375 years on average = $5.85M

So the top 8 forwards are getting over $1M more and 1.5 years more on their contracts on average. Notwithstanding several of the forwards are widely considered to be on incredible value deals, they are still getting larger contracts than their defensemen peers. If Scheifele and Couturier were up for new contracts this summer they’d easily get $70 – 80M deals, you can’t say that about any of the defensemen.

Even if Darnell Nurse had signed a long term contract last summer instead of a bridge, that deal would probably have been in the $6M x 8 year range, no? Based on this the D group would be as follows:

D: $293.5M over 6.125 years on average = $6.0M

Still well below the forward group and no screaming team-friendly deals in sight.

________________________________________

TL;DR

I see your Myers conjecture and raise you Jeff Skinner.

Yeti

jp: Hass was teammates with Mark Arcobello (currently 30 years old) who finished 2nd in NLA scoring. MAP (now 34) was teammates with Toni Rajala (now 28) who finished 4th in NLA scoring.

Our babies done grown up. Crap, I’m feeling old right now.

Yeti

Pouzar: Sounds like it.

I like that kind of bet! Hope he joins.

jp

Pouzar:
swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews
NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers
https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers
Eliteprospects:
Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)
Stats:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

Nice to see Ken looking under lots of rocks for some cheap depth.

A couple more tidbits from Elite Prospects. He’s been a fixture on the Swiss World Championship and Olympic teams for years. And he was an NLA all-star in each of the past 2 seasons despite the modest scoring totals, so the guy must have some real 2-way ability.

Also, the MAP dream may not be dead 🙂
He’s still playing there and put up very similar numbers to Haas the past 2 seasons.
And fun facts: Hass was teammates with Mark Arcobello (currently 30 years old) who finished 2nd in NLA scoring. MAP (now 34) was teammates with Toni Rajala (now 28) who finished 4th in NLA scoring. Lots of Oilers connections to that league.

Professor Q

jp,

I said a higher skilled version of Kassian mixed with Tom Wilson. The Wilson part is the dirty and physical play leading to suspensions.

Learn to read qualifiers.

Kassian has also scored 30 points before (29 with Vancouver, and a few other high 20s; I wasn’t talking goals), and Chiasson even scored 20 goals this season. Maroon even had a high goal-scoring season before.

I never suggested trading Russell, let alone trading Russell for Kadri, so I don’t know why you keep suggesting that I have.

I’m not the one undervaluing Larsson here.

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster:
Ok so he won’t have to wait until his draft +3 to go to the AHL. Makes sense. At least then he can go to the AHL after a year in juniors. So that’s good.

Still think the SHL route is far better as it has a better track record with swedish players, he’d face tougher competition, gets to play with seasoned pros and Skellefteå also lost/dumped their top 3 LHD this off season and of the replacements only one could be argued to be pre-slotted ahead of him on the depth chart and even in his case he’s coming from a questionable season. So there will be every chance to get a spot in the top 4. As for pp time they lost their main PP D, Emil Djuse, to the Dallas Stars so there’s an opening there as well. He’ll probably compete with Jonathan Pudas and the other Oilers prospect Filip Berglund for PP time. Both RHD.
If he can’t get proper ice time there’s always the option to loan him out to allsvenskan. Or he could join the Bulldogs midseason. It’s been done before, Daniel Bernhardt former Rangers prospect joined the London Knights midseason a few years ago for example.

In the case of Broberg the issue at least won’t be mental maturity or lack of english skills. He’s fine there. I just believe he’ll learn more and better back home.

This is simply fantastic info on the depth chart – thank you so much.

jp

Professor Q: I’m definitely not way off. Read it again.

Zach Kassian is a 30 point player. A higher skilled version of him (with a bit of Tom Wilson thrown in; why do people always seem to miss the caveats?) would be a 40-50ish point player, which Kadri is. He’s only gotten 60 points once.

I’m a Knights fan in Leafs territory. I hear all the pumped bias, too. Obviously Toronto would trade him for their needed Top RHD in Larsson. I’d trade Nuge for Erik Karlsson, too, if given the opportunity. Although there’s more pay difference between Larsson and Karlsson, of course.

Coincidentally those two 30 goal years arrived once an Auston Matthews arrived. Whoever that scrub is. Although he might have also centred Marner and Nylander at times.

The Kassian/Wilson comparisons don’t even fit stylistically. I don’t see it at all.

Kassian and Wilson are 6’3, 210lb + wingers. Kadri is a 6′, 190lb C.

As noted, Kassian has never scored 30 points. Kadri has never had less than 39 in a full season (and 44 in 48G during the lockout season). And scored 30 goals in each of the two years prior to this one.

Kadri is a shit disturber and prone to meltdowns, but he’s had 43 and 42 PIM in the past 2 seasons. He’s only had 1PIM/Game once. Wilson has never had less than 128 in a season and Kassian has over 100 in 3 of the last 4.

These aren’t remotely similar players in really any way.

Professor Q: I disagree with it. I think you both are way off base.

Check when he scored said 30 goals, and check how many assists he had in conjunction with that. Check who he played with. Then come back. He’s only done it twice and then back down he went this season.

Check how many PIMs and suspensions he had, also, and THEN start relating the value to the value of Larsson, which is larger than Kadri BEFORE even taking to account his importance to the Oilers as their Top RHD. Then take into account his very good contract.

That’s why the proposal of Larsson + a 1st or 2nd (or even any plus, really, unless it is Lucic) for Kadri is outright insulting.

I’d obviously trade Nuge for Karlsson though (Larsson does have a better contract, and obviously doesn’t have as much offence), you’re right. Doesn’t mean it’s good value for the Sharks.

Kadri’s most common linemates in the past 3 seasons are Komarov, Marleau, Brown, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Leivo, Hyman, Matthews. Not quite 97 minutes with Matthews in 3 years (of Kadri’s 3163 total 5on5 minutes).

Matthews has had zero effect on Kadri’s offense. In fact, Matthews more likely hurt Kadri’s value by pushing him down the lineup than pumping him up. Note he has actually scored 1.88P/60 over that span (including the 2 x 30 goal season) with largely 3rd line teammates. And prior to this year vs extremely tough competition (>44% vs elites).

I’m seeing basically zero similarities to Kassian/Wilson here. And a very very good player on a very good deal for 3 more seasons.

I wouldn’t trade Kadri for Larsson either, due to the Oilers makeup, but I agree with OP that the value of the 2 players is very similar (recall that Larsson has one year less on his deal, and is coming off a very poor season). And expecting to get Kadri for Russell is a dream. Why would the leafs do that to save 500k? They’ll get far far better offers for Kadri assuming they do move him.

greenshifter

ArmchairGM,

Seems like acquisition costs and contracts for top 4 Dmen are too steep a price nowadays.

Draft and develop your own is my thinking there.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar: I’m going to agree with this.Sure, Kadri has his warts and is currently “in trouble” with the Leaf franchise, however, he is a VERY good hockey player, a multiple time 30 goal scorer who provides plus attributes in other areas as well – signed to a value contract for a somewhat perfect term – 3 years left – won’t decline during that term.

I think Larsson is actually very good value for Kadri and I think that Kadri would be awesome as an Oiler – check alot of boxes.At the same time, I wouldn’t make that trade today because, in isolation, as much as I’d love Kadri, given our current RD depth chart, I think that trade makes us work – Larsson is just too important right now.In a year that trade may work when Bouchard has a full year of pro and we know more about Jones on the right side and more about Persson (and even Bear – although unlikely to factor in the top 4 right D depth chart).

I disagree with it. I think you both are way off base.

Check when he scored said 30 goals, and check how many assists he had in conjunction with that. Check who he played with. Then come back. He’s only done it twice and then back down he went this season.

Check how many PIMs and suspensions he had, also, and THEN start relating the value to the value of Larsson, which is larger than Kadri BEFORE even taking to account his importance to the Oilers as their Top RHD. Then take into account his very good contract.

That’s why the proposal of Larsson + a 1st or 2nd (or even any plus, really, unless it is Lucic) for Kadri is outright insulting.

I’d obviously trade Nuge for Karlsson though (Larsson does have a better contract, and obviously doesn’t have as much offence), you’re right. Doesn’t mean it’s good value for the Sharks.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

I’m going to agree with this. Sure, Kadri has his warts and is currently “in trouble” with the Leaf franchise, however, he is a VERY good hockey player, a multiple time 30 goal scorer who provides plus attributes in other areas as well – signed to a value contract for a somewhat perfect term – 3 years left – won’t decline during that term.

I think Larsson is actually very good value for Kadri and I think that Kadri would be awesome as an Oiler – check alot of boxes. At the same time, I wouldn’t make that trade today because, in isolation, as much as I’d love Kadri, given our current RD depth chart, I think that trade makes us work – Larsson is just too important right now. In a year that trade may work when Bouchard has a full year of pro and we know more about Jones on the right side and more about Persson (and even Bear – although unlikely to factor in the top 4 right D depth chart).

Pouzar

ArmchairGM: 4th line center candidate?

Sounds like it.

ArmchairGM

Pouzar:
swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews

NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers

https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers

Eliteprospects:
Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)

Stats:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

4th line center candidate?

Pouzar

swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews

NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers

https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers

Eliteprospects:
Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)

Stats:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

ArmchairGM

rickithebear: Of the 40+ theories I have.

I think I found the problem.

😀

ArmchairGM

McSorley33:
godot10,

Agreed.

Jake Bean and Trevor Carrick are both LHD prospects….so that is probably
What Holland is after in a JP trade with Carolina.

Maybe G Alex Nedeljkovic.

Huh? He took what he felt was BPA in the draft, it doesn’t mean that he can’t read a depth chart. Trading JP for a depth LHD makes no sense.

ArmchairGM

greenshifter: Imagine if Myers gets 7×7!! Keep drafting Dmen high every year please.

I’m struggling to connect the dots here. What does Myers potential UFA deal have to do with the draft again?

SwedishPoster

Ok so he won’t have to wait until his draft +3 to go to the AHL. Makes sense. At least then he can go to the AHL after a year in juniors. So that’s good.

Still think the SHL route is far better as it has a better track record with swedish players, he’d face tougher competition, gets to play with seasoned pros and Skellefteå also lost/dumped their top 3 LHD this off season and of the replacements only one could be argued to be pre-slotted ahead of him on the depth chart and even in his case he’s coming from a questionable season. So there will be every chance to get a spot in the top 4. As for pp time they lost their main PP D, Emil Djuse, to the Dallas Stars so there’s an opening there as well. He’ll probably compete with Jonathan Pudas and the other Oilers prospect Filip Berglund for PP time. Both RHD.
If he can’t get proper ice time there’s always the option to loan him out to allsvenskan. Or he could join the Bulldogs midseason. It’s been done before, Daniel Bernhardt former Rangers prospect joined the London Knights midseason a few years ago for example.

In the case of Broberg the issue at least won’t be mental maturity or lack of english skills. He’s fine there. I just believe he’ll learn more and better back home.

ArmchairGM

godot10:
Carolina is a budget team.They are trading salary to free up money to sign Aho.Their initial offer of 8 x $6 million was laughable.

Aho’s minimum is probably $8 million.Also, Jake Bean tore up the AHL last year is a left D.Haydn Fleury also. Trevor Carrick.

Aho should get every penny Marner gets and maybe more. I would think 3 years from now they’ll be very happy to have him on a $10M long term contract.

And Haydn Fleury hasn’t torn up anything. He’d likely be 7th defenseman in Bakersfield next year if he came over to the Oilers org.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar:
You may have personal property but if it causes one to value Kris Russell over Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, the means the personal property itself has no value.No disrespect intended.

This is an opinion!
So your point of view is not based on fact or Knowledge.

It is nice that subjective the belief of old boys club Lowe, Chiarelli, Cherry that OFF Dmen are have great value mirrors yours.

My study of Zone position & structure identifies them as a rover not a defenceman.
My study shows a true 2 dman – Goalie Defence of the true critical def zone ( HD area) the highest value of anything in the game when wanting to win a championship.
Turn shots into 0X density – no scorable value
Or
Reduce scoreable shots to the lowest x possible .1X

When I looked @ GA rates and win ability.
You win almost all the games you yeild 2 GA or less.
Running 2-1 structure with top 60 HD dmen, 0% shot dmen, Open HD shot goalies
Gets you closer to consistent 2Ga games.
Running 1-1-1 structure creates overlap free path to create high rates of open 2x – 5X shots resulting in high Ga mass. So rovers like Klefbom & Nurse cause you to get closer to 3 ga rates.

This is the biggest failing of your knowledge.
In a Cap world we pay more for offence.
Forwards and rovers cost too much to be able to have the off production depth to consistently out score 3 GA.

The introduction of table hockey goalie movement by Roy & JVB caused the most significant change in density ratio between HD & LD shots.
Pre table hockey goalie movement 80,s offence could out score 3 ga.

Then in mid 90’s NJD ran a NZ fwd trap causing low Entry rates.
They had 5-6 dmen deep 2-1 defensive structure that yeilded 19 sh/gm
Those dmen were physical elite HD dmen that yeilded minimal HD shots.
Their pressure yeilded historically low open shots.
Broderick had minimal real shots to save.

But most teams did not run an elite HD Open SH structure.
So the other goalies yeilded 3.5 ga rates.

From that time.
We see the final 4 being a function of the most critical cup core structure.
1. Top 15 HD open sh save% goalie
2. As much HD open sh dman depth as possible.
– 3+ dmen was good at original point of my analysis.
– 4+ Dmen is a truer norm now.
3. You require the being as deep a top 125 forward depth team with top 125 goal scoring depth the most critical.

For 25 years now rovers do not have a +ve goal dif affect they had in 70’s & 80’s.

Our team had the cup core roster needed.
In 05-06 conf champ.
16-17 series win against anahiem had the 2 interference goals been properly called.
Competing for conf & maybe cup.

You continue your 80’s opinion.
I will continue my 94 to 2019 facts.

Professor Q

JimmyV1965: I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

I’m definitely not way off. Read it again.

Zach Kassian is a 30 point player. A higher skilled version of him (with a bit of Tom Wilson thrown in; why do people always seem to miss the caveats?) would be a 40-50ish point player, which Kadri is. He’s only gotten 60 points once.

I’m a Knights fan in Leafs territory. I hear all the pumped bias, too. Obviously Toronto would trade him for their needed Top RHD in Larsson. I’d trade Nuge for Erik Karlsson, too, if given the opportunity. Although there’s more pay difference between Larsson and Karlsson, of course.

Coincidentally those two 30 goal years arrived once an Auston Matthews arrived. Whoever that scrub is. Although he might have also centred Marner and Nylander at times.

Munny

Nit64,

While I was looking for answers on the eligibility issue, I ran into an article that I thought made a lot of sense… That the eligibility rule shouldn’t be based on years but on games played in all competitions.

So if you’re good enough to get regular shifts at 16 and 17, play on the international teams, go deep in the playoffs etc. you can make the jump earlier. Thus, this would only give eligibility to the kids who are dominating at the Jr level and can use more of a challenge.

Not a bad idea.

N64

Munny:
Nit64,

Good find! Confirmation is good. I think we have it surrounded, and can be confident too if he chooses to play for Staios, he can still choose to go to the A the year after.The IIHF considers it to be a loan from his Swedish pro club.

So, a bridge hasn’t been burned by the Import Draft… and he can’t burn a bridge with his choice for next season.The A will be there when they want it, not at age 20.

Surprisingly the rule does not penalize the player for being drafted by a league he did not sign up with. They’ll need to fix it up to make it more unfair 😉

More seriously the current rule is awful for CHL players. Everyone else can develop against men before 20 and even before the NHL draft. e.g. euros can play in men’s leagues and the us dev team plays elite NCAA teams stocked with older players. This really reduces the opportunities from the CHL to the NHL.

Long overdue for the CHL to allow 18 years old to go pro. Also players under pro contract should not be allowed in the CHL. These two changes would open up routes from the CHL to the NCAA and to the AHL at 18. Not doing this harms Canadians rising to the NHL.

JimmyV1965

Professor Q:
Cassandra,

Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much. Are you trolling right now? It seems like it. He’s a higher-level Kassian mixed with a Tom Wilson, and the Leafs are backed into a corner.

Also, Russell’s contract does not have negative value. He is an effective and sought-after D-Man who got paid market value. Just because many on here disagreed with him being paid said market value, with term, specifically by Edmonton (when Edmonton was desperately trying to get any D they could), does not negate that fact.

I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

Munny

Nit64,

Good find! Confirmation is good. I think we have it surrounded, and can be confident too if he chooses to play for Staios, he can still choose to go to the A the year after. The IIHF considers it to be a loan from his Swedish pro club.

So, a bridge hasn’t been burned by the Import Draft… and he can’t burn a bridge with his choice for next season. The A will be there when they want it, not at age 20.

JimmyV1965

pts2pndr: There is no way a third line centre has equal value to a 2-3 right shot D. That doesn’t even take into account age and contract.

Kadri might play 3C in Toronto, but he’s definitely not a third line player. He’s top six on virtually every team in the league. He might be as good as RNH, maybe better. Older though.

Pescador

Bulging Twine: and a 6th for Petrovic who didn’t play one game after the deadline
and a 6th for Gravel who would be crazy to resign here
and a 3rd for Chiasson

A definite plus that comes with the Holland hire is he won’t be GMing for his job when the next deadline comes around.

slopitch

I doubt we get Kadri for Russell lol

To really change a teams fortune around is to win a trade. Flames and Blues both did it last summer. Colorado absolutely changed their fortune around moving Duchene for that haul. Meanwhile Ottawa, Boston and Edmonton are still reeling (we lost several). Im all for bold moves. Maybe Winnipeg re-signs Myers and Ehlers shakes loose. Maybe Kadri becomes available. Vegas also has to move lots of salary. The well run management teams seem to take adv of teams in these positions. I just wish we werent the team getting taken adv of all the time. Id like to find out if Holland still has it. Put the 2020 1st + JP in play? I think its worth dangling. Just be opportunistic, and calculated. If the oilers could get Mrazek, Burakovsky and win a trade (ill say JP + 1st + Bear for Ehlers), next season might be fun again.

N64

OriginalPouzar: The first scenario is still not cut and dry and it could still mean not eligible even though he hasn’t played in the CHL – there is nothing out there that we’ve seen that doesn’t create some ambiguity on the matter.

Munny and OP,

Here’s the case study Munny and I were looking for. Early AHL eligibility after not playing in the CHL (even though drafted by the AHL before the NHL):

Adrian Kempe
Born September 13, 1996
CHL Import draft Barrie 2013
No CHL Play, remained in Sweden
NHL Draft 2014
2014/15 move to AHL Manchester from Sweden

https://chl.ca/prospects/2013/-185685088

Not loaned to the CHL like Alex Nylander’s loophole:

“Though normally players from the CHL aren’t allowed to “go pro” until their 20th birthday, Nylander had played the entire year with the Mississauga Steelheads on loan from his Swedish club, making him eligible like any other European prospect”

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/adrian-kempe/page/2

If being loaning to the CHL is a loophole, then never going to the CHL has to keep you eligible for the A as per Munny’s initial reaction to the loophole 😉

So Broberg could play for Woodcroft next year or the year after if he wants to come to North America

OriginalPouzar

You may have personal property but if it causes one to value Kris Russell over Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, the means the personal property itself has no value. No disrespect intended.

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0:
rickithebear,

There is a clear indication of shooting less & not trying to have misses the last 2 years.

Lucic hasn’t shot over 6.5/60 since 10/11

He was just a hair over 5.0/60 in LA in 15/16

He’s never been a volume shooter.

His 5v5 SH% was identical in 17/18 and 18/19.

This is who he is.

You really do not get it.

I am about to show you something on here I said I would not do.

This formula and thereom is my personal property.
Any use for competitive or financial gain without my permission is strictly prohibited.

In 2006 coming to LT site taught me the value of analyzing hockey as a science.
Observations that date back 50 years could be applied to this practice.

In 2006 I started charting success rate of shots in OZone. I ended up with a basic shot success chart.
At the same time Alan Ryder came out with his shot Quality study 2006.
His numbers were a more refined version with some results.
So yeilded to his study.

When I looked at shot curves. They mirrored an observation I first developed 50 years ago.
Re observed over the continuing years.
The sh charts were a density.
With graph amplitude increasing as you moved towards the net.
They failed to recognize the density variance.

My High danger theory was in place in 2006.
I recognized HIgh danger shots ( from rickisbox as you guys called it years ago) went in 5 times more than low danger ( perimeter shots)

45 years ago I observed Ronnie Gunville generate a high hit goalie rate by moving like a Table Hockey Goalie. The real differentiation of Quality of shot.

Their are 2 parts to acquiring the proper shot data charts.

The open and closed shot theory began 12 years ago.

Open shots by open space in net location have a quality of going in.
Closed shots hot goalies have 0% chance of going in. They have no shot quality.

THE SCIENCE OF HOCKEY IS A GOAL MASS FORMULA.

SHOT DENSITY x SHOT VOLUME = GOAL MASS
Density = goals/sh by location&Quality
Volume = SH/ gm
Goal mass = goals/gm

Their are 4 SHots to measure that have 3 different densities.

1. Average open High Danger Shot Density = 5X
2. Average Open Low Danger Shot Density = 1X
3. Average Closed High Danger Shot Density = 0X
4. Average Closed Low Danger shot Density = 0X

x = average success rate of LDSH for that season.

By Mass Formula.
The goal mass potential of closed shot is 0.
They must be excluded from any goal scorable data.

The greatest influence on any shot is making it non Scoreable.
* The biggest influence a dman can have is causing it to have a density value of 0.
Kris Russell is the best at it.
I have been able to define him for 11 years.

* the 2nd biggest influence a dman can have is causing density to reduce.
One of the best in the game Larsson.
The proper structure to achieve top density reduction is 2D-1G structure.
*1R – 1D-1G yields high density rates and higher % of scoreable shot Quality.

as the ratio between open HDSH and open LDSH reduces the concern over 1-1-1 structure reduces.

Of the 40+ theories I have.
2 critical situational performance analysis went from 3D to 5D Analysis.

* you want forward with high density rates with high volume rates so they end up with top of league goal volume.

Lucic was a 1.67 sh/ gm volume player.
Who concentrated on Trying to get highest % of open high danger 1.5x to 5X shots.
Resulting in a high shooting% & volume
He still continued with High danger penetration.
But now he wa concentrating on not missing which lead to a shift to closed shots with densities = 0X

You need to exclude all shots with a density of zero.
You want to concentrate on get shots in the 2-5X range

Their are a collection of theories that relate to entry- corsi – shot – goal progression.

The 5 D situational graph includes the 5 biggest goal variance factors.

Yiou have to get it now WG:

Glovjuice

JJ:
SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo! says:
June 24, 2019 at 12:05 pm

Andy Dufresne,

I try and pry Kadri from the Leafs. He can score, he draws more penalties than he takes, he annoys and he can play all roles.

Toronto is cap screwed, have no defense and Kadri is on the outs with a coach who isn’t necessarily in line with his GM. The Oilers are well stocked at the very position the Leafs are lacking and can afford to part with one defenseman.

Toronto is the desperate team in this transaction, the Marleau disposal showed it. Holland can sit and wait, no need to rush, let Kyle come to you.

Russell is your starting piece, he saves the $500,000 and is a year shorter. Yes he’s older, but can play both sides and in any situation. He also brings the “grit” that I can see a guy like Babcock loving

————————————————–

I talked about this possibility after Kadri lost his temper and got suspended and then the Leafs were eliminated.

The idea got roasted by a couple of folks on here (their idea being that Kadri > Russell).

The Kadri for Russell idea assumes that:
1) after signing Marner, the Leafs will need to dump salary,
2) they may have soured somewhat on Kadri after the suspension and elimination, and
3) as the end of the summer approaches and the Leafs are still short on defensemen, the versatile, gritty Russell will continue to look better and better as an option for them.The Leafs can’t start the season without a full slate of defensemen and expect to make the playoffs. Not making the playoffs is Dubas suicide.

I agree that Kadri is greater than Russell. However, the Leafs have backed themselves into a corner and may believe a NHL defenseman like Russell is greater than Kadri, given their circumstances.

Wouldn’t it be great if the Oilers created and transacted a trade that they win.

</blockquot
Ok then

Scungilli Slushy

The Leafs need cap. Russell is only 500K less. Shorter term. I’m not sure that helps them enough unless Holland retains, and boy wonder likes the fancies.

Edit: Russell and Kadri.

Scungilli Slushy

Professor Q:
Wow. Rumours include Talbot signing with the Flames.

This could be very good or very bad for Edmonton.

Against us he’ll rock. But he’s far too sensitive to be a starter or apparently backup in the N. Maybe it’ll work if he has no significant challenges there.

Being a pro athlete involves a high level of low sensitivity and a perhaps an unhealthy in normal life compete level.

Bulging Twine

Reja: I like that that Pitlick fella wish the Oilers would acquire players like him on the cheap and he willmore than cover his bet. He’ll blossom in Philly the fans thrive on hard working go to the net blue-collar players with skill.

Vigneault likes wingers with good straight line speed – Pitlick has pretty good straight line speed. I don’t know about Hartman’s.
I liked the Pitlick kid too

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Also, I have a few athletes as clients.There are things that can be done to reduce the taxes: its’ one of the big reasons why so many players have these “off-season bonuses”

– I know what I’m talking about.Those who disagree that taxes aren’t a consideration do not.Plus if you have ever dealt with an athlete, losing a few hundred grand matters more to them than you can appreciate.They are just wired different: their “pay” is part of the competitive psyche.Taxes matter a lot on dollars and to them.It just is

– Here is how is works, Depending on where you are a “tax resident”athletes only pay tax in Canada based onCanadian “duty days.” Provincially and Federally. Duty days begin on the first day of training camp and end either when the regular season ends or when the team finishes its playoff run. Canadian duty days count the number of days that the players are in Canada for games, practices, training and days off. So one of my clients: he has 70% per cent of total duty days in Ontario

– So you can see why they have these bonuses paid in the off-season: they get taxed at wherever they “reside”, and aren’t “duty days”

Interesting … was never sure how this actually worked. Thank you, Kinger.

El Duderino

Nit64: Not ironclad, but I’m working off of this:

The rule is as follows:

Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.”

She leads with “the rule is as follows” and then uses AND not OR.

This statement is further down and it seems more exploration than definition. I suspect this is only true if you actually play in CHL. Ithink it’s exploring the case where the NHL drafts you before the CHL:

“If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.”

Tomorrow I’ll see if I can look through the import drafts and see how many players followed theBrogerg’s case; i.e. CHL draft then NHL draft without any CHL play. Andthen I’ll see if any played in the AHL before 20. Quickly checked a few years and there weren’t a lot drafted by the CHL AND skipped CHL play AND ever played in North America at any level.

Quite a boring brain battle here.

Bulging Twine

LadiesloveSmid:
Carolina is run so well, man. JP for Gauthier is like when they pulled off Niederreiter for Rask.

Just don’t answer their calls, let JP play in Europe.

Uptick since they hired Rick Dudley

Bulging Twine

ArmchairGM: Would have been nice to have had a 5th on the weekend. Just sayin.

and a 6th for Petrovic who didn’t play one game after the deadline
and a 6th for Gravel who would be crazy to resign here
and a 3rd for Chiasson

N64

OriginalPouzar: The first scenario is still not cut and dry and it could still mean not eligible even though he hasn’t played in the CHL – there is nothing out there that we’ve seen that doesn’t create some ambiguity on the matter.

Not ironclad, but I’m working off of this:

The rule is as follows:

Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.”

She leads with “the rule is as follows” and then uses AND not OR.

This statement is further down and it seems more exploration than definition. I suspect this is only true if you actually play in CHL. I think it’s exploring the case where the NHL drafts you before the CHL:

“If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.”

Tomorrow I’ll see if I can look through the import drafts and see how many players followed the Brogerg’s case; i.e. CHL draft then NHL draft without any CHL play. And then I’ll see if any played in the AHL before 20. Quickly checked a few years and there weren’t a lot drafted by the CHL AND skipped CHL play AND ever played in North America at any level.