Low Budget!

I always thought Andrej Sekera was a great target in free agency. He was mobile, skilled, had good years remaining and was good enough to play up and down the lineup as required. Maybe he wasn’t a top pairing blue, but any fool could see he was bona fide top-4 D.

Now, what do you pay for free agents in Edmonton? Among the 31 teams, there are better and worse destinations for free agents, I think the market has spoken and there’s a premium in dollars and years. Sekera signed a six-year deal, $33 million for a $5.5 million AAV.

What would have have signed for with (say) Tampa Bay? Great weather, tax situation ideal. Say, four years and $4.5 million? Is that fair? Maybe we’ll make it $4.5 million times five years. So, the Lightning save $1,000,000 a year on the cap and spend one less year worrying about injury.

If we can agree those things are true, why don’t fans factor those facts in when a free agent signs here? Why do fans fail to make the connection going forward when we can all agree looking back? Damnable question, don’t have the answer.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanKen Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

LOW BUDGET

We’ve talked about Brett Connolly for weeks now as a free-agent option, I think the Oilers will have a look at him. Will the team be able to afford him? I refer you to the passages above. They may have to overpay for him because that’s the marketplace. Ken Holland can’t change the taxes and he can’t move 2,000 palm trees to Crestwood so we are here. I’m going to list the Matt Cane free-agent dollars below. PLEASE do not send me angry emails if the actual cost to Edmonton is greater than the Cane estimate.

FREE AGENT FORWARDS, VOLUME 1

Connolly should be pursued, but at what price? If he can command $4.5 million times 3, should the Oilers pursue? The club could sign Donskoi or Ennis for far less, and possibly add another free agent from this list.

So the question for today: Would you rather Connolly, or Donskoi/Carr, or Ennis/Pirri?

LOW BUDGET

Magnus Paajarvi scored 11 goals for $900,000; Kenny Agostino posted 24 points for $700,000; Taylor Leier scored 22 goals in the AHL; Jean Sebastian Dea played in the NHL and flourished in the AHL; Riley Barber scored 31 AHL goals; Andrew Poturalski scored 70 AHL points; Michael Sgarbossa scored 30 AHL goals. Fussy Britches mentioned Ville Leskinen, I don’t know much about him (EP page here). Oilers have informed the agents for Tobias Rieder and Ty Rattie they’re on the Lido Shuffle, so someone is coming in. I remain convinced Tyler Benson has a clear shot at this roster.

2019 OILERS DEVELOPMENT CAMP

The kids are in town for a few days and there are lots of chances to see this year’s prospects. Details are here.

Goalies (3): Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue

Defense (7) Philip Broberg*; Evan Bouchard, Matt Cairns*, Leon Huttl; Phil Kemp, Michael Kesselring; Dmitri Samorukov*

Forwards (11) L Matej Blumel; LC Skyler Brind’Amour; R Cam Hebig; RC Raphael Lavoie; R Kirill Maksimov; LC Tomas Mazura; LC Ryan McLeod; L Graham McPhee; L Patrik Siikanen; L Nolan Vesey; R Taylor Ward.

I know some of you are likely disappointed the top 20 landed at The Athletic, but I can tell you there’s a new offer that gets you a year for less than $4 a month (link is here). The piece is 4,000 words and it’s a helluva list this year.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we’re back on the air, TSN1260. Corey Pronman, Jason Gregor and Hart from PuckPedia join us as we talk draft and free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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399 Responses to "Low Budget!"

« Older Comments
  1. Reja says:

    Nit64: Clearly only the politicians can lower or raise taxes. So this does not appear to be addressed to the civil service.

    I always thought it was a ex friend of Gord.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: If Vegas can find the space to sign Stone, we can find the space to sign Marner.Start with the Gagner buy-out and go from there.

    At this point, they haven’t found the space to do so. They are currently almost $7M over the cap with a roster of only 20 out of the standard 23.

    They still need to move out pieces and will lose players they don’t want to or have to pay with important futures to move players.

  3. Ari says:

    Yeti,

    Then again, Eric T is their VP of Hockey Management and Strategy.

  4. Jaxon says:

    Age clusters with Broberg, Lavoie and Konovalov added. If Broberg matures quickly it would really benefit the Oilers. Lavoie may jump up sooner than we expect. Next year until 2025-26 is their 6-year window with 2022-23 and 23-24 looking like their best shot at winning. I’ve made broad assumptions about development, peaks, and aging curves that may or may not be accurate.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Jason Gregor just said Oilers tried to trade down in the 1st rd.

    Rishaug mentioned on the “Morning Mandate” that he knows for a fact they he tried to but also that ANA would have picked Broberg.

  6. Material Elvis says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Carolina is run so well, man. JP for Gauthier is like when they pulled off Niederreiter for Rask.

    Just don’t answer their calls, let JP play in Europe.

    Broberg should stay in Sweden for another year.

    Yes and yes. Europe would be perfect for JP.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Howson asked if its a priority to bring Broberg over to get used to the North American game and Howson stated its too early to determine that but they have had initial discussions with the player.

    He said the first thing that has to happen is that the player has to want to come over – they won’t force a player like this to come over if he’s not mentally ready for it. Broberg is at this point at least open to it. Will discuss over summer and decision in the next month or so.

    There can be no “assurances” on time on ice over in Sweden – its pro hockey, you never know. If they KNEW he would play 20 minutes a game over there – no brainer for him to stay.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Howson confirmed with absolute certainty they will not be signing Hawkey and he’s been informed of that.

    Just don’t have the space for him to play and don’t have the room under the 50 (or use a spot).

    Oh well.

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: I heard he is either first or second off the court.

    This made me LOL.

  10. Yeti says:

    Material Elvis: Yes and yes.Europe would be perfect for JP.

    That presumes there is a chance to integrate him one year from now. Such a scenario has not been helped by the agent’s calculated statement that effectively sought to burn bridges. I think Holland is absolutely correct to see if he can get some sort of asset now while keeping Europe as the fallback option.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    If I’m trading JP to Carolina I want Necas back.(Doubt Carolina would do)
    Otherwise make the player earn his trade.No reason to trade him for a pick

    I agree. Trade up for the better player, add a prospect or pick if you have to but always come away with the better player.

    This should be carved into the boardroom tables and management’s desks at the Oilers HQ.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan:
    Munny,

    As I know many people who work in different levels of government, I take offense to you saying “ask the idiots in the government to lower the damn taxes.”

    Feelings come into play when insulting language is used.

    I don’t object to you discussing taxes.

    I object to your characterization of people in government being idiots.People in government are not all idiots any more than hockey players are, or oilfield workers are.

    Would you please consider either retracting your characterization or apologizing?

    I greatly appreciate your efforts to be considerate.Based on your previous comments, I’m certain this was not intentional.

    Sounds personal.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Broberg talk – he said he’ll talk to the Oilers and where they decide they think is best for him, that’s where he’ll go. Sounds like both sides want to do what the other wants. I’ve got a feeling he’ll be in Hamilton as the org seems to really want to ensure he gets ice time and they just can’t be sure of that if in the SHL.

  14. npanciroli says:

    I hate to be the person that drools over size but Gauthier put up 27 goals in the AHL at 21 and is 6’4 225. The question is what kind of usage did he get in the AHL? Top line or third line? Having competent pro scouts woud help.

    I know people want a better return but have to be realistic also. I don’t think a better prospect offer comes so the question then is will JP increase his value in Europe? That really comes down to how much do you believe in him.

    Will be interesting to see what Holland does in the end.

  15. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: Sounds personal.

    It’s only politicians that set taxation, so that wasn’t even about gov’t employees. If we can’t call politicians dumb, next thing Oil Management will be off limits 😉

  16. JJ says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo! says:
    June 24, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    Andy Dufresne,

    I try and pry Kadri from the Leafs. He can score, he draws more penalties than he takes, he annoys and he can play all roles.

    Toronto is cap screwed, have no defense and Kadri is on the outs with a coach who isn’t necessarily in line with his GM. The Oilers are well stocked at the very position the Leafs are lacking and can afford to part with one defenseman.

    Toronto is the desperate team in this transaction, the Marleau disposal showed it. Holland can sit and wait, no need to rush, let Kyle come to you.

    Russell is your starting piece, he saves the $500,000 and is a year shorter. Yes he’s older, but can play both sides and in any situation. He also brings the “grit” that I can see a guy like Babcock loving

    ————————————————–

    I talked about this possibility after Kadri lost his temper and got suspended and then the Leafs were eliminated.

    The idea got roasted by a couple of folks on here (their idea being that Kadri > Russell).

    The Kadri for Russell idea assumes that:
    1) after signing Marner, the Leafs will need to dump salary,
    2) they may have soured somewhat on Kadri after the suspension and elimination, and
    3) as the end of the summer approaches and the Leafs are still short on defensemen, the versatile, gritty Russell will continue to look better and better as an option for them. The Leafs can’t start the season without a full slate of defensemen and expect to make the playoffs. Not making the playoffs is Dubas suicide.

    I agree that Kadri is greater than Russell. However, the Leafs have backed themselves into a corner and may believe a NHL defenseman like Russell is greater than Kadri, given their circumstances.

    Wouldn’t it be great if the Oilers created and transacted a trade that they win.

  17. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Listening to Broberg talk – he said he’ll talk to the Oilers and where they decide they think is best for him, that’s where he’ll go. Sounds like both sides want to do what the other wants.I’ve got a feeling he’ll be in Hamilton as the org seems to really want to ensure he gets ice time and they just can’t be sure of that if in the SHL.

    Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL? I don’t think so. The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

  18. Buddy says:

    One thing has been left out of the discussion of why we have trouble attracting free agents, namely whether their wives/girlfriends are pre or post NHL.

    Buddy Jr.’s coach in Bantam a few years ago played in the NHL, and his wife explained it like this. The wives on every team (he played on a bunch) divide into two groups. They get along with each other, but don’t typically spend much time together away from the rink or outside hockey related events, because they have very little in common.

    The pre-NHL wives are what you would expect: Canadian small town girls, farm girls, high school sweethearts. And the post-NHL wives are also what you would expect: gorgeous big city girls who married millionaire celebrity athletes. You can guess which group is likely to be more amenable to living in Edmonton.

    Not the most important factor, but it is a factor.

    This has become one of Mrs. Buddy’s favourite lines when we watch a game and they show some player’s amazingly beautiful wife or girlfriend: “Do you think she’s pre or post NHL?”

  19. dustrock says:

    Dammit Canada.

    Saved penalty, poor all-around touches in the box.

    They worked hard and the D was pretty stellar, but I never believed in their offence. Sinclair could not get service on the ball, and most of the Canadian tactic seemed to consistent of going hard down the right side and firing in crosses.

    Absolutely flabbergasted you wouldn’t have Sinclair take the penalty. Even just for form’s sake, if nothing else.

    Ah well, I wasn’t convinced they’d even get out of the group round, so well played, get some offensive creativity, and maybe next time they’ll have a shot at the quarters.

  20. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thank you for this report. That’s quite reassuring.

  21. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    Hampus Lindholm might be the only statistical comparable drafted in Broberg’s range that comes to mind.

    Their numbers in Sweden look pretty similar, and he too was a reach at the time at 6th.

    Lindholm went straight to the AHL, however. I’m on the send him to Sweden train but if not for the logjam on D in Bako I wonder if he’d tread water.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Howson confirmed with absolute certainty they will not be signing Hawkey and he’s been informed of that.

    Just don’t have the space for him to play and don’t have the room under the 50 (or use a spot).

    Oh well.

    Would have been nice to have had a 5th on the weekend. Just sayin.

  23. PennersPancakes says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    Not commenting on whether its a good idea or not, but this is exactly what Chicago did with 2018 8th overall Swedish Defensman Adam Boqvist last season.

  24. Munny says:

    Nit64: It’s only politicians that set taxation, so that wasn’t even about gov’t employees. If we can’t call politicians dumb, next thing Oil Management will be off limits 😉

    *Nailed* it. lol

  25. Nit64 says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL? I don’t think so. The smartest men in the room are going to do it again

    Turns 18 tomorrow. He also has the AHL option.

  26. PennersPancakes says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Lindholm went straight to the AHL, however. I’m on the send him to Sweden train but if not for the logjam on D in Bako I wonder if he’d tread water.

    I would have to dig deep into the NHL-CHL agreement but I believe since Broberg was drafted in the CHL Import Draft by Hamilton, he is still bound by the 20 year old rule making him ineligible to play in the AHL until then.

    This means he plays in the SHL, the CHL, or if he were theoretically; ready the NHL.

  27. Reja says:

    dustrock:
    Dammit Canada.

    Saved penalty, poor all-around touches in the box.

    They worked hard and the D was pretty stellar, but I never believed in their offence.Sinclair could not get service on the ball, and most of the Canadian tactic seemed to consistent of going hard down the right side and firing in crosses.

    Absolutely flabbergasted you wouldn’t have Sinclair take the penalty.Even just for form’s sake, if nothing else.

    Ah well, I wasn’t convinced they’d even get out of the group round, so well played, get some offensive creativity, and maybe next time they’ll have a shot at the quarters.

    Men’s are Women’s soccer ( football ) doesn’t matter always playing not to lose never to win.

  28. Munny says:

    There is material risk in sending Pujo to Europe for next season. His value could easily be less in a year. If there are multiple teams interested now, use that and do your best to get a roster player out of the deal.

  29. Nit64 says:

    #TradeCentre ALERT: @NHLFlyers acquire F Tyler Pitlick from the @DallasStars for F Ryan Hartman…

  30. Munny says:

    PennersPancakes: This means he plays in the SHL, the CHL, or if he were theoretically; ready the NHL.

    This is correct. No AHL possibility for Bro.

  31. Nit64 says:

    PennersPancakes: I would have to dig deep into the NHL-CHL agreement but I believe since Broberg was drafted in the CHL Import Draft by Hamilton, he is still bound by the 20 year old rule making him ineligible to play in the AHL until then.

    This means he plays in the SHL, the CHL, or if he were theoretically; ready the NHL.

    Players drafted from the NCAA or Europe do not fall under the agreement, which is why Toronto was able to add William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen to the Marlies as 19-year-olds.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/chl-no-intentions-changing-underage-rules-ahl-exemptions/

    You’re referencing the CHL draft, but it’s about where the NHL drafts FROM.

  32. Alpine says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    Rasmus Andersson, if it’s not too early to call him a success. Was a late brithdate and moved from the Allsvenskan to the OHL at 18.

  33. Jordan says:

    Nit64,

    ArmchairGM,

    Maybe I am too sensitive about this. I’ll take a step back.

  34. Material Elvis says:

    Yeti: That presumes there is a chance to integrate him one year from now. Such a scenario has not been helped by the agent’s calculated statement that effectively sought to burn bridges. I think Holland is absolutely correct to see if he can get some sort of asset now while keeping Europe as the fallback option.

    I suppose it would be nice to get an asset now but it’s not going to be good one. And there is no GM in the league who could salvage JP’s value at this stage. Would you rather trade him now for a draft pick or a B level prospect OR send him to Europe for a year where he has a chance to regain his confidence, mature a bit, and possibly improve his trade value? Some of the names that people are floating around (Necas for example) are not going to happen. I was hoping for a JP- Burakovsky trade but that doesn’t appear likely at this stage.

  35. Reja says:

    Munny:
    There is material risk in sending Pujo to Europe for next season. His value could easily be less in a year.If there are multiple teams interested now, use that and do your best to get a roster player out of the deal.

    I hope Holland doesn’t make a deal just for the sake of making a deal. Remember it was Jesse’s agent making all the demands like his Client just scored 20 plus and is trending up.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    npanciroli: I hate to be the person that drools over size but Gauthier put up 27 goals in the AHL at 21 and is 6’4 225. The question is what kind of usage did he get in the AHL? Top line or third line? Having competent pro scouts woud help.

    I can’t answer all your questions, but Gauthier did lead his team in PP goals this past season. His 5v5 p/60 was underwhelming though, the nearest Bakersfield equivalent would be Evan Polei, although Evan is a year older. His GF%rel is a shocking -10, so he doesn’t bring much 2-way ability to the table to put it mildly.

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    Rasmus Andersson is doing pretty good but I’d argue his development was stunted in the CHL and got going again in the AHL.
    It’s not been a great route for swedes and I don’t like the OHL idea for Broberg. In particular Broberg since he skates past most of his peers at will, don’t think a junior league, even if it’s the best there is, will help him develop the more subtle parts his game needs better than the SHL. It’s not like the SHL has a bad track record developing NHL D.

    Edit: As a general rule swedes (and finns, and russians) tend to develop better back home. Or at least there’s far less risk that their development is stunted by the change in scenery. I don’t get the allure for NHL teams to remove these teenage kids from the enviroment that’s made them high end prospects to begin with. They’re on an upwards trajectory, why risk for them to stumble off it?

    I’m not saying it should be written in stone, there are cases where a player could use a change or where their future situation looks like it’s going to be less than ideal, this is rarely the case with top prospects but some midrounders ends up in limbo between the juniors and the men’s team for example. But as a general rule leave them be. You can always bring them over later if their trajectory flatlines or they’re not getting ice time.

  38. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    If the player was drafted by the CHL prior to the NHL draft, he cannot go to the AHL until his CHL eligibility expires.

  39. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    There is material risk in sending Pujo to Europe for next season. His value could easily be less in a year.If there are multiple teams interested now, use that and do your best to get a roster player out of the deal.

    Are there really multiple teams interested (or is that Holland’s way of trying to gain leverage)? Are multiple teams lining up to give the Oilers a 2nd round draft pick in 2020 or a B/C level prospect? What are the chances that JP’s value is any less after a year in Europe? Either way, I doubt he ever plays with the Oilers again.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Carolina is run so well, man. JP for Gauthier is like when they pulled off Niederreiter for Rask.

    Just don’t answer their calls, let JP play in Europe.

    Broberg should stay in Sweden for another year.

    I like Broberg getting heavy minutes in the OHL for Hamilton.

    Get used to smaller ice and different decision making due to that right away.

    Play more minutes than he would in Europe

    AHL year after.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Russell is Holland’s bullet, here.

    No idea how he’s valued around the league, but if he can be moved with either space or a cheaper, semi-useful forward/backup goalie coming back, that’s a huge win.

    I’d buyout Gagner, too.

    From accounts, Russell does have value around the league for some managers. I’m not sure if we would get a clean $4M for his but I would think we could get a clean $3M at least if not $3.5M.

    His trade protection is a big factor though as he could limit the list to team’s that don’t want him is he wanted to dig in.

    I don’t see the point in buying Gagner out – he actually scored at top 6 rates away from McDavid last year and can provide some skill in the bottom 6 and fill in in the top 6 in a pinch – useful on PP2 as well. Yes, he’s overpaid but I’m not sure anything “better” can be found with the cap savings and we know its important to Holland get some skill and depth in the bottom 6.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Nit64,

    If the player was drafted by the CHL prior to the NHL draft, he cannot go to the AHL until his CHL eligibility expires.

    I’ve never heard that.

    I know the “drafted out of the CHL” part.

    Source?

  43. Reja says:

    Nit64:
    #TradeCentre ALERT: @NHLFlyers acquire F Tyler Pitlick from the @DallasStars for F Ryan Hartman…

    I like that that Pitlick fella wish the Oilers would acquire players like him on the cheap and he will more than cover his bet. He’ll blossom in Philly the fans thrive on hard working go to the net blue-collar players with skill.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You sure?

    I thought it was only for players drafted from the CHL.

    Doesn’t matter if a CHL team has his rights.

    Pretty sure I’m right on this, not 100% tho

    Nope – for European players, if they have been taken in the CHL important draft prior to being drafted in the NHL, then the CHL/AHL rules and age restriction applies. He’s not eligible for the AHL until he’s “of age”. I’m certain.

    This is different than the situation with Safin – he was drafted by the Oilers prior to being taken in the CHL important draft and was therefore available to play in the AHL as a teen.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    So glad EDM doesn’t have the cap space to give Tyler Myers $8M!

    Vancouver does and I greatly look forward to it!

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: Not commenting on whether its a good idea or not, but this is exactly what Chicago did with 2018 8th overall Swedish Defensman Adam Boqvist last season.

    He seems to have done okay. Maybe a slightly different situation though, as I’m not sure he was physically ready to play against men and SuperElit didn’t provide enough competition.

    I generally fall on the Allsvenskan / SHL side of the argument when it comes to Broberg, but won’t be the slightest bit bothered if he lands in OHL. I might even get a chance to watch him play next year.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Ben,

    The timing is perhaps not helpful, but I think that Holland’s best chance to trade Russell is when teams fail in the FA market to address their D needs.I’m sure he’d prefer to get it done before then though, if he can.

    Holland has been express that he’s “not looking to upgrade the defence this off-season” – see the interview with Nugent-Bowman. He’s going to be focussed on a goalie (likely in free agency) and the forwards (in particular the bottom 6).

    Yes, only a fool takes a GM’s word as gospel, however, to this point, everything he has done (and not done) has lined up exactly with what he’s said.

    A Russell disposition is key – but its for cap space not to replace him on the blue line – at least I believe so.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tyler Pitlick traded to Pilly for Ryan Hartman!

  49. npanciroli says:

    ArmchairGM: I can’t answer all your questions, but Gauthier did lead his team in PP goals this past season. His 5v5 p/60 was underwhelming though, the nearest Bakersfield equivalent would be Evan Polei, although Evan is a year older. His GF%rel is a shocking -10, so he doesn’t bring much 2-way ability to the table to put it mildly.

    Thanks! That is… unimpressive.

  50. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I like Broberg getting heavy minutes in the OHL for Hamilton.

    Get used to smaller ice and different decision making due to that right away.

    Play more minutes than he would in Europe

    AHL year after.

    I think Swedish Poster does raise some good points on this matter too. Tough call as to which is the best course as both options have advantages and disadvantages

    I like the Oilers take that OP provided from Howson above: play where you have the desire to play and where you will feel the most comfortable.

  51. rickithebear says:

    Last season:
    Did not watch any oilers games on TV.
    Oct to Dec spent 90 days in hospital.
    First 40 not eating or physically able to lift myself.
    Moved to dimensia and kidney failure.
    Jan till recently sleeping 20 hr a day.

    Watched the 8 to 10 min game recap.
    Perfect package for watching players baseline failure rate and highlights.
    Get a real critical count of true plus/minus.

    Watch a year of game recaps.
    Watch for open space in front of net.
    Who,s traditional d partner is missing.
    Identify repetative penetration forwards.

    Past years game recaps lucic got inside HD area and had an above avg % of targeted open space in net elevation. Hence his high sh%.
    Last 2 years lucic still gets HD penetration but shots the puck at goalie resulting in above avg hit goalie rate. Resulting in low SH%.

    Clearly his inability to back check on missed or blocked shot counter attack has caused him to change his targeting of open space were missed sh% is higher.

    Partner that with rovers that cause high% of 3-1-1-1 structures.
    He is used to top 10 3-2-1 HD open sh defences in Bos & LAK + 16-17 in EDM.
    10-11 to 16-17 1.67 SH/ gm 16.74 SH%
    17-18 & 18-19 1.37 SH/gm 7.2%

    There is a clear indication of shooting less & not trying to have misses the last 2 years.
    Another theorem to be checked.
    Players Shooting density by structures 3-2-1 & 3-1-1-1.

    Seeing a clear variance with a Lucic!

    This thought finally made me look at our cap and visit 2 & 3 year season use avg of our current roster & UFA depth Fwds.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan:
    Nit64,

    ArmchairGM,

    Maybe I am too sensitive about this.I’ll take a step back.

    Ok. I want you to know that I wasn’t calling you on it, just softly digging for more info. 😀

  53. pts2pndr says:

    Bohologo:
    Holland can’t do much about federal taxes or the weather in Edmonton, but the exchange rate is still favourable.I realize it may swing either way for a host of unpredictable reasons, but for now anyone buying a house in YEG for themselves and their family will see that their U.S.-dollar denominated salary gets an exchange rate bump of nearly a third.So, it’s not all down arrows if you are pitching to a prospective free agent, I would submit.

    There are interesting dynamics in the various state tax systems. The U.S. owners have a huge advantage. Worst tax city in Canada is apparently Montreal. The sun belt cities in the U.S. have a definite life style benefit! I would argue that if you are raising a family that Canada is a kinder gentler place to do so. I made that bet and have no regrets. The difference in the education systems alone is huge. If in doubt see Donald Trump. I truly respect the generosity of the American people and think they make great neighbours. Politics aside it is a personal choice and we are very lucky that either choice is excellent.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun · 18h18 hours ago


    A number of teams reached out to pending UFA RHD Anton Stralman today. His agent Marc Levine says next step is to iron out the interview schedule.

    Are the Oilers one of those teams?

    He was my initial fantasy 2RD 1-2 year stop gap target in connection with the Russell disposition but I have changed my thoughts and believe that $4M (hopefully) should (and will be) spend elsewhere.

    Also, as per my previous post (after you posted this one), if you take Holland at his word, he’s not looking to upgrade the D.

    Stralman would be vastly too expensive and likely wants term, in any event.

  55. PennersPancakes says:

    Nit64: Players drafted from the NCAA or Europe do not fall under the agreement, which is why Toronto was able to add William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen to the Marlies as 19-year-olds.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/chl-no-intentions-changing-underage-rules-ahl-exemptions/

    You’re referencing the CHL draft, but it’s about where the NHL drafts FROM.

    Again I could be totally wrong since it isnt something I have looked into. In Kapanen and Nylanders case I think it is because they were drafted by the NHL BEFORE the CHL? They were both drafted in 2014 by both leagues but the CHL import draft is after the NHL draft.

    In Brobergs cause Hamilton drafted him last year. This is where without the official wording it gets muddy. He was drafted out of the SHL but the CHL had his rights before the NHL meaning hes subject to the 20 year old rule. (?)

    Again could be totally wrong. Even if he was/is eligible for the AHL I dont think theres a chance he plays there next season. Oh well

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: Rasmus Andersson is doing pretty good but I’d argue his development was stunted in the CHL and got going again in the AHL.
    It’s not been a great route for swedes and I don’t like the OHL idea for Broberg. In particular Broberg since he skates past most of his peers at will, don’t think a junior league, even if it’s the best there is, will help him develop the more subtle parts his game needs better than the SHL. It’s not like the SHL has a bad track record developing NHL D.

    Well put. Is SHL the only option? He was in Allsvenskan this year, is there any chance he’ll end up back there come September? I’m unsure how the leagues / eligibility works over there.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Andy Dufresne,

    I try and pry Kadri from the Leafs. He can score, he draws more penalties than he takes, he annoys and he can play all roles.

    Toronto is cap screwed, have no defense and Kadri is on the outs with a coach who isn’t necessarily in line with his GM. The Oilers are well stocked at the very position the Leafs are lacking and can afford to part with one defenseman.

    Toronto is the desperate team in this transaction, the Marleau disposal showed it. Holland can sit and wait, no need to rush, let Kyle come to you.

    Russell is your starting piece, he saves the $500,000 and is a year shorter. Yes he’s older, but can play both sides and in any situation. He also brings the “grit” that I can see a guy like Babcock loving

    If they are trading Kadri and not getting cap relief, they can do much better than Russell, I’m sure. They could probably get Brodie for example for Kadri.

    Larsson is probably close to value for Kadri – of course, that trade would make the Oilers worse given current organizational depth (as much as we could use Kadri) but, in my opinion, that’s the “value” that Kardri likely has – subject to Dubas having zero leverage.

  58. Munny says:

    PennersPancakes,

    Again, you are correct. Check the link I provided to WG above. Your memory is spot on.

  59. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: A Russell disposition is key – but its for cap space not to replace him on the blue line – at least I believe so.

    Don’t think anyone was saying anything different?

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Not a great trade. Gauthier had 41 points in 75 AHL games last year with one of the best teams in the league, he’s also 7 months older than JP. If it’s a 1-for-1 deal it’s Chia-worthy: pure crap.

    Agreed, I don’t think those numbers are far off from what Jesse produced in the AHL as an 18 year old and I have little doubt that, if he had played a material amount of games in the AHL this past year, he’d be at a PPG – he did have 4 in 4 games, 17 shots, a fight and was the best player on the ice in 2 of the 4 games.

  61. LadiesloveSmid says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Not that they play similar styles per se, but how would you rate Hampus Lindholm & Broberg on their draft days?

    As I recall HL was picked about 8 spots earlier than anticipated as well, and they J20 & Allsvenskan numbers look very similar.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: By Wednesday he’ll be (destined to be) a UFA or not. You don’t give Washington anything Wednesday AM because they no longer hold his rights.

    He won’t be an actual UFA unitl July 1 thought so, if the Oilers essentially have a reasonable contract negotiated with the player, a condition 7th would be fine (similar to other pending UFA transactions).

  63. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: If they are trading Kadri and not getting cap relief, they can do much better than Russell, I’m sure. They could probably get Brodie for example for Kadri.

    Larsson is probably close to value for Kadri – of course, that trade would make the Oilers worse given current organizational depth (as much as we could use Kadri) but, in my opinion, that’s the “value” that Kardri likely has – subject to Dubas having zero leverage.

    There is no way a third line centre has equal value to a 2-3 right shot D. That doesn’t even take into account age and contract.

  64. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I like Broberg getting heavy minutes in the OHL for Hamilton.

    Get used to smaller ice and different decision making due to that right away.

    Play more minutes than he would in Europe

    AHL year after.

    Getting used to smaller ice rarely takes more than a few months, the guys who can’t make the transition are usually guys who are either not good enough or they are just a bad fit for NA hockey. Look at all the swedish D in the league, it’s not like they needed a lot of time adjusting.
    Goalies can take longer to adjust but oddly they are almost always the last to actually come over.

    As for ice time, if for some reason he’s not getting decent minutes with Skellefteå he can always step back to allsvenskan.

    The OHL would be a step back in competition compared to what he faced this season. Not sure that’s the best step forward. Especially if he’s not allowed to play in the AHL until his draft +3 season which would mean he either stays two seasons in juniors or spend one year in the OHL then back for one year in the SHL and then back again to the AHL/SHL or you hope and pray he’s NHL ready by his draft +2.

    ArmchairGM: Well put. Is SHL the only option? He was in Allsvenskan this year, is there any chance he’ll end up back there come September? I’m unsure how the leagues / eligibility works over there.

    He could be loaned back to Allsvenskan if he’s not getting ice with Skellefteå. It happens a lot.

  65. Nit64 says:

    Munny:
    PennersPancakes,

    Again, you are correct. Check the link I provided to WG above.Your memory is spot on.

    Where in the link are you getting this? The article starts with this.

    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”.

    Broberg did not PLAY in the AHL. He was drafted out of Europe/.

    Looked through all the cases in the article for a clear example of Broberg’s case. But Nylander was not drafted by the CHL before the NHL and Tlusty played in the CHL before his NHL draft. Broberg did not play in the CHL after they drafted him. In the end he was drafted out of Europe.

    Again what language or case are you getting the idea being drafted by the CHL is sufficient to be excluded from the A?. Most articles refer to being drafted out of which implies they also played in the CHL.

    https://www.nhl.com/flyers/news/who-can-play-where-and-why/c-889461

  66. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    It’s about half way through the article. Gives the difference cases of Panarin and Vishnevskiy.

  67. Cassandra says:

    JJ:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo! says:
    June 24, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    Andy Dufresne,

    I try and pry Kadri from the Leafs. He can score, he draws more penalties than he takes, he annoys and he can play all roles.

    Toronto is cap screwed, have no defense and Kadri is on the outs with a coach who isn’t necessarily in line with his GM. The Oilers are well stocked at the very position the Leafs are lacking and can afford to part with one defenseman.

    Toronto is the desperate team in this transaction, the Marleau disposal showed it. Holland can sit and wait, no need to rush, let Kyle come to you.

    Russell is your starting piece, he saves the $500,000 and is a year shorter. Yes he’s older, but can play both sides and in any situation. He also brings the “grit” that I can see a guy like Babcock loving

    ————————————————–

    I talked about this possibility after Kadri lost his temper and got suspended and then the Leafs were eliminated.

    The idea got roasted by a couple of folks on here (their idea being that Kadri > Russell).

    The Kadri for Russell idea assumes that:
    1) after signing Marner, the Leafs will need to dump salary,
    2) they may have soured somewhat on Kadri after the suspension and elimination, and
    3) as the end of the summer approaches and the Leafs are still short on defensemen, the versatile, gritty Russell will continue to look better and better as an option for them.The Leafs can’t start the season without a full slate of defensemen and expect to make the playoffs. Not making the playoffs is Dubas suicide.

    I agree that Kadri is greater than Russell. However, the Leafs have backed themselves into a corner and may believe a NHL defenseman like Russell is greater than Kadri, given their circumstances.

    Wouldn’t it be great if the Oilers created and transacted a trade that they win.

    This might be the single most ridiculous ideas I have read here.

    Russell’s contract has negative value. You can’t trade it without taking a negative contract back. You can’t even get back a 7th pick back.

    Kadri, on the other hand, has one of the best value contracts in the league.

    The price for Kadri is Larsson +++

  68. Munny says:

    To wit:

    European players further complicate The Agreement. If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them. However, if they’re drafted as a member of a European squad, and choose post-NHL-draft to play for a CHL team, they can, in fact, report to the NHL team’s minor squads before the age limit kicks in. To explain this in detail, let’s look at three European players who were drafted in 2006: Jiri Tlusty, Artem Anisimov, and Ivan Vishnevskiy. Based on the agreement, the age cutoff for the AHL for 18-year-old players drafted in 2006 would be 20 years old by December 30, 2008.

    Artem Anisimov is the simplest of these three cases. He was drafted by the New York Rangers out of the Yaroslavl Locomotiv of the KHL, and was assigned to the Hartford Wolf Pack at the age of 19 for the 2007-2008 season. He turned 20 on May 24, 2008. No CHL involvement means no age restriction. Easy enough.

    Ivan Vishnevskiy is the opposite case. He was the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies’ (QMJHL) second pick in the CHL import draft in 2005, before being drafted by the Dallas Stars out of R-N in 2006. Since he was drafted from a CHL team, the same rules apply to Vishnevskiy as any other player drafted from a CHL team: 20 years old or 4 years of play. Vishnevskiy played for Rouyn-Noranda for three seasons, turned 20 during the 2007-2008 season, and reported to the Peoria Rivermen of the AHL to start the 2008-2009 season.

  69. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    or you hope and pray he’s NHL ready by his draft +2.

    – Yeah this seems to be what many are projecting. I think that is setting up fans for being mad.

    – Nurse: who was at least Brah’s peer, when was he “ready” for the NHL?: I’d say it was his 2017 season 4 years after draft. Then he was “ok” (and many clamouring for him to be traded)

    – Sure hope, but it’s not realistic, or projectable that in 2 years he’s ready. Holland said as much: worry about him later

    – So I just tell him: ” ‘Brah: we are going to set you up for success”

    – Now if we have 5 bonafide D’s and he’s eased into 3 LHD with a stud: maybe in two years, but that isn’t this current D roster:

    2021 season:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    ‘Brah-Jones(?)

    -No way: you can “hope” for that, but that’s a lot of development that goes perfect. Sorry ‘brah.

  70. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Cassandra,

    Ya and Kevin Hayes just got $7.14 million. Calgary dove head first into Neal while the Lucic deal sits less than 2.5 hours away . A constant reminder of not to do that.

    Kyle Dubas just gave away a 1st round pick to get rid of a contract.

    Never say never when a GM is backed into a corner and a coach is breathing down his neck after running Ron Hainsey and Jake Gardiner into roles they never should have been in while Kadri sat in a pressbox watching for the 2nd playoffs in a row

  71. Cassandra says:

    pts2pndr: There is no way a third line centre has equal value to a 2-3 right shot D. That doesn’t even take into account age and contract.

    Well, there is no way that Kadri is a “third line centre” (if there were such a position) so I guess it doesn’t matter.

    Every trade suggestion demonstrates that Oiler fans overvalue their players and undervalue the players on other teams.

    Dubas might trade Kadri straight up for Larsson because of positional needs, but he would be holding his nose while he did it.

    To trade Kadri for Russell you’d have to add a first round pick and Caleb Jones,

  72. Professor Q says:

    I think Lowetide and the rest of the crew might like this! I certainly do.

    Not only are Mazura and Blumel best friends with each and played together, but Mazura is family friends and plays tennis with one Ales Hemsky. I’m not sure if Blumel is as well, but at least they’re from the same place and have a chance.

    That’s a doubly great story for them to be drafted by Edmonton. Let’s hope they both become as loved as he in The Big E!

  73. Professor Q says:

    Cassandra,

    Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much. Are you trolling right now? It seems like it. He’s a higher-level Kassian mixed with a Tom Wilson, and the Leafs are backed into a corner.

    Also, Russell’s contract does not have negative value. He is an effective and sought-after D-Man who got paid market value. Just because many on here disagreed with him being paid said market value, with term, specifically by Edmonton (when Edmonton was desperately trying to get any D they could), does not negate that fact.

  74. Nit64 says:

    Munny:
    To wit:

    European players further complicate The Agreement. If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them. However, if they’re drafted as a member of a European squad, and choose post-NHL-draft to play for a CHL team, they can, in fact, report to the NHL team’s minor squads before the age limit kicks in. To explain this in detail, let’s look at three European players who were drafted in 2006: Jiri Tlusty, Artem Anisimov, and Ivan Vishnevskiy. Based on the agreement, the age cutoff for the AHL for 18-year-old players drafted in 2006 would be 20 years old by December 30, 2008.


    Artem Anisimov is the simplest of these three cases. He was drafted by the New York Rangers out of the Yaroslavl Locomotiv of the KHL, and was assigned to the Hartford Wolf Pack at the age of 19 for the 2007-2008 season. He turned 20 on May 24, 2008. No CHL involvement means no age restriction. Easy enough.

    Ivan Vishnevskiy is the opposite case. He was the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies’ (QMJHL) second pick in the CHL import draft in 2005, before being drafted by the Dallas Stars out of R-N in 2006. Since he was drafted from a CHL team, the same rules apply to Vishnevskiy as any other player drafted from a CHL team: 20 years old or 4 years of play. Vishnevskiy played for Rouyn-Noranda for three seasons, turned 20 during the 2007-2008 season, and reported to the Peoria Rivermen of the AHL to start the 2008-2009 season.

    So you are basing this on Vishnevskiy. He played in the CHL 2005-06 BEFORE the NHL draft.

    Step back to the lead paragraph from that article:

    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”.

    Broberg was drafted by the CHL but not DRAFTED AND PLAYING.

  75. Cassandra says:

    Also Julian Gauthier has negligible value. I mean I would take him if he as free, I suppose, but he isn’t a real prospect.

    27 goals with a significant portion of them on the powerplay (which is a significant negative) with double the goals than assists, while 21 years old are down arrows not up arrows.

    He’s a significantly worse prospect than Cooper Marody let alone Puljujarvi.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Psyche:
    Howson was interviewed today, the video is on the Oilers site. At the 8:15 mark he states that they won’t be re-signing Hawkey. (Video is on their Twitter feed.)

    hopefully Howson isn’t employed by the team for much longer but it’s a solid interview to watch.

  77. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Ah: OK: for illustrative purposes.Edmonton Athlete is a Florida/Russian/German/ MonteCarlo /whatever resident for tax purposes.He gets a bonus paid July 1st.It is taxed in that jurisdiction: that’s where he “lives”.Once the pre-season starts and the regular season, playoffs, and all the days he’s living in Edmonton, he pays “Duty Day” taxes at the provincial and federal rates

    – So he avoids the Alberta tax-rate on the bonus, but has to pay it on the salary earned while in Edmonton (and he actually has to report taxes for each game played in each province and state, and there is an off-set so no double-taxation, just like any citizen), but that’s another matter.

    * as an aside: it’s a sweetheart deal for highly paid athletes: the CRA is too dumb to figure out what is happening with this legal tax avoidance, and/or the NHLPA has lobbied hard to permit it

    Thanks. I think I have it now. It really only affects players who are not ‘residents’ of the country where they play and you probably explained that and I just missed it.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    Holland has actually shown to be one of the smartest guys in the room in this regard……

    Miles to go but there is very recent precedent – Adam Boquist.

    There point is valid, there is zero way to ensure any material ice time and we know the European league’s are not generally seems as giving material ice to teenagers.

    I’ll trust Holland in this.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Carolina is run so well, man. JP for Gauthier is like when they pulled off Niederreiter for Rask.

    Just don’t answer their calls, let JP play in Europe.

    Broberg should stay in Sweden for another year.

    JP for Gauthier looks like an awful trade. Although he scored 27 goals in the AHL, he got very few assists. He also did virtually nothing in the playoffs. Hell, there are other players on the Checkers I would rather have, and that doesn’t include Necas, who I assume is untouchable. Just once I want to look at an Oiler trade and be happy with the return.
    L

  80. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    I agree it is less clear than I originally thought upon re-reading the article, because she doesn’t actually provide a similar example. But she quite clearly states in the excerpt I posted:

    If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.

    That’s pretty cut and dried.

    She’s not writing as a lawyer, nor a philosopher, so I have no idea whether, in the quote you are providing,she means the “and” to be inclusive or exclusive.

    And I cannot find a bloody copy of the actual agreement anywhere.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64: Turns 18 tomorrow. He also has the AHL option.

    AHL isn’t an option as he was drafted to the NHL after being selected in the import draft.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes: I would have to dig deep into the NHL-CHL agreement but I believe since Broberg was drafted in the CHL Import Draft by Hamilton, he is still bound by the 20 year old rule making him ineligible to play in the AHL until then.

    This means he plays in the SHL, the CHL, or if he were theoretically; ready the NHL.

    Correct!

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64: Players drafted from the NCAA or Europe do not fall under the agreement, which is why Toronto was able to add William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen to the Marlies as 19-year-olds.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/chl-no-intentions-changing-underage-rules-ahl-exemptions/

    You’re referencing the CHL draft, but it’s about where the NHL drafts FROM.

    No – that isn’t correct. There are nuances.

  84. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: JP for Gauthier looks like an awful trade. Although he scored 27 goals in the AHL, he got very few assists. He also did virtually nothing in the playoffs. Hell, there are other players on the Checkers I would rather have, and that doesn’t include Necas, who I assume is untouchable. Just once I want to look at an Oiler trade and be happy with the return.
    L

    Necas is a pipe dream. That would be a great trade. These guys are all way better than Gauthier

    Aleksi Saarela
    Morgan Geekie
    Jake Bean
    Janne Kuokanen
    Roland McKeown

    And those are pretty underwhelming names. If you trade with the Hurricanes I want one of them + Trevor Van Riemsdyk

  85. Truth says:

    Professor Q:
    Cassandra,

    Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much.

    Agreed. Kadri is a suspension away from being worth negative value. Him for Russell would leave a bad taste in my mouth as an Oilers fan, knowing Kadri ‘s cap hit is $500k more / year and has one more year than Russell on his contract.

    I’d offer them Kadri and Brown for Sekera and Gagner ($1.5M retained).

  86. Doug McLachlan says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I wanted to put this down on paper (as it were) to avoid looking at this draft several years down the road and having my views clouded by hindsight.

    [Great Idea so I am going to shamelessly steal and cut and paste in response.]

    #8: While I really, really like Broberg as a player (I think I was one of the first to mention him on this blog, certainly before the media began hyping him), I wouldn’t have drafted him based on the available talent at the actual draft. I wanted Zegras, and I think if Broberg was the target they could have dropped down a couple of spots and picked up a high 2nd… missed opportunity IMO. So while I don’t hate Broberg, my pick would have been Trevor Zegras.

    [I would have been more upset had the choice been Cozens. I think the choice was size and speed. Had it been down the middle vs on the blue it would have been a much tougher call. When Broberg’s name began to float I started to dig into him and think his two tournaments against his peers (Hlinka-Gretzky and the U18s, while small sample sizes, showed a player who could be a home-run at best and a very, very solid top 4 d at worst). I will say that Broberg would have been my call vs Zegras and I will stand by that one.]

    #38: I like the Lavoie pick at 38, no question.

    [I think Kaliyev would have been the only player coming into the second round I would have preferred to Lavoie and he went to the Kings. Very happy with this pick. Not going to get into speculative trades. Trading up is, IMHO always an expensive game to play – look how much Arizona paid to get Soderstrom as opposed to York, a 2nd – too much. Trading down, on the other hand can make some sense but Lavoie was not going to last much longer so happy with the pick.]

    #85: My preference here was Maxim Cajkovic – I just cannot believe he dropped this far. To me he was a mid-2nd and wouldn’t have been upset to pick him at 38 had the above players been taken already. At 85? That’s a steal.

    [Yup, you and I are on the same page here. Really liked the idea of getting Cajkovic too, though admittedly this is ONLY because of his ranking on LT’s list. I checked in with Catherine Silverman who I believe LT has had on in the past to talk goaltending and she REALLY is high on Ilya Konovalov. The more I read on him the more I am doubting my “in the moment” thinking that he would be there later. Two goalies were taken earlier in this round and two more taken within the next 8 picks so if the Oilers think this is a potential seasoned starter who could step in two years from now, I will be happy to say I was wrong. Not mad about the pick but will watch Cajkovic’s progression in Tampa’s system.]

    #100: Anyone who was paying attention to the comments in LT’s draft day posts will know that I had very strong feelings for two late picks in particular: Blake Murray and Ethan Keppen. In fact, I mentioned them as options for the #85 pick, and when Edmonton took the goalie I reacted aversely, mentioning these two and Cajkovik within minutes. So my 4th round pick is a no-brainer then: Ethan Keppen.

    [Your emotional engagement at this point in the draft is super impressive. I literally have no rooting interest but get why you are boosting Keppen. Flint is a gong-show on ice but it is also close to Detroit. I wouldn’t doubt that Holland had some viewings and, given the Wings’ season last year, they likely would have been in the second half when Keppen was popping. I can’t say I had a name at this point but will watch Keppen vs. Blumel moving forward. I will say, at this point in the draft I am very inclined to lean towards NCAA-bound players who have more time to bloom and develop so am very open to the scouting staff looking at potential as opposed to product – which does seem to describe Blumel (and Mazura as well).]

    #162: So by the time the 6th round rolls around and Blake Murray is STILL on the board I’m going nuts! I’m pretty sure I came pretty close to being banned for my ALL CAPS comments and angry language (sorry LT!), but it goes without saying that Blake Murray was the man of choice at this pick.

    [Again, well past my knowledge base but really like what the first line of the Hockey News says about him and wonder about the consistency question they mention as being a knock. Will watch but as will Blumel, like that Mazura is going the NCAA route and wonder if they see the potential for a more rounded game in Mazura.]

    #193: By this time I was too fatigued from writing angry posts calling for a complete sweep of the Oilers amateur scouting staff to have posted a preferred pick – at least I don’t remember doing so anyhow. I do remember being shocked when Cole Moberg’s name was posted at 194 as I thought he’d gone earlier. As a 7th round pick I think the value there is excellent, if I’d had my head about me (which I would have if I’d been running the draft table) that’s the guy I would have gone with.

    [You will note a theme about me NOT claiming to know enough to have an informed opinion but will say that Pronman’s interest in Maxim Denezhkin was enough, on its own, to sway me. Secretly am intrigued at the idea of MacT coaching him next two years and if we have a reincarnation of Sergei Samsonov circa 2006 – I would call that a huge win in a smaller package.]

    That’s my list and I’m sticking to it.

    [Will do my best to keep you honest. Talk again in 5 years.]

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Munny,

    Thanks for that gents.

    *The More You Know rainbow*

  88. Cassandra says:

    Truth: Agreed. Kadri is a suspension away from being worth negative value.Him for Russell would leave a bad taste in my mouth as an Oilers fan, knowing Kadri ‘s cap hit is $500k more / year and has one more year than Russell on his contract.

    I’d offer them Kadri and Brown for Sekera and Gagner ($1.5M retained).

    That is an insulting offer and you know it. Why don’t you get the Leafs to throw in a 3rd round pick while you are at it?

    The 3rd year on the contract dramatically increases Kadri’s value. That you don’t see that shows how little you understand of how good he is.

    If you offer that to Dubas he hangs up on you and doesn’t take your calls anymore because he doesn’t think you are a rational person.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: I think Swedish Poster does raise some good points on this matter too. Tough call as to which is the best course as both options have advantages and disadvantages

    I like the Oilers take that OP provided from Howson above:play where you have the desire to play and where you will feel the most comfortable.

    Agreed that the player’s mind set and desire trumps all.

    If he’s open to it and is mature enough to start the acclimation process then I like it.

    Small ice for Dmen is a thing, as is TOI.

    Not saying staying Europe is inferior, case by case is best.

    Is the player getting +15min 5v5 in Europe? Fill yer boots.

    ~10min on a deep team? Maybe CHL is better for that player if they are emotionally and intellectually mature enough to make the move.

    Find the right billet family for him as well.

  90. Cassandra says:

    I mean seriously. I know Kadri has baggage, but on the ice he is a similar player to Nugent-Hopkins with a cheaper contract and more term.

    Don’t believe me, check out his pts/60 while often playing in a shutdown role.

    You can quibble as to who is the better player but they are clearly in the same category of player.

    And you guys think you can get him for Russell?

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    There is a clear indication of shooting less & not trying to have misses the last 2 years.

    Lucic hasn’t shot over 6.5/60 since 10/11

    He was just a hair over 5.0/60 in LA in 15/16

    He’s never been a volume shooter.

    His 5v5 SH% was identical in 17/18 and 18/19.

    This is who he is.

  92. SkatinginSand says:

    OriginalPouzar: AHL isn’t an option as he was drafted to the NHL after being selected in the import draft.

    I would like to see your reference for this. I have checked every link, and I see only references to players signed and playing in the CHL. Being drafted by a CHL team does not make him their property, unless he has a contract with him.
    https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019/06/24/nhl-chl-transfer-agreement-faq-rules-penguins-tlh/

    Another exception is if an NHL club drafts a player out of a European league, and then the player joins one of the CHL leagues after the NHL draft. Since he was property of an NHL team before he joined the CHL, he isn’t bound to the transfer agreement

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Not able to play in the AHL until draft +3?

    Yeesh.

  94. Professor Q says:

    Question for the group, since we’re discussing the draft nuances and AHL time:

    What if they’re drafted by the CHL but go the NCAA route, and are drafted out of the NCAA?

    Jack Roslovic technically could have dropped out of Miami of Ohio and played for the Flint Firebirds, as he was drafted by them in 2013, later to be acquired by the London Knights. Although to be fair, he could have just went straight to the OHL instead of playing a year each in the USNTDP and Miami.

    Yet instead, Roslovic was drafted in the 2015 draft by Winnipeg, then dropped out after a year in Miami (at 18 years old, so he signed his Entry Level Deal that Spring/Summer at 19 years of age and played in the AHL at 19) and played for the Moose and Jets. I’m sure there are other cases with similar factors involved, too.

    How did he circumvent the 20 Years Old threshold, despite being a CHL drafted player? This question is based on the reasonings given that if a player is drafted into the CHL prior to being drafted into the NHL, even if they never play, they are subject to that rule.

  95. Nit64 says:

    Munny: “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”.

    Munny: I agree it is less clear than I originally thought upon re-reading the article, because she doesn’t actually provide a similar example. But she quite clearly states in the excerpt I posted:

    If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.

    That’s pretty cut and dried.

    Not when she starts with:

    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”

    When I say IF A & B first and later say if A is that really cut and dried saying factor B is irrelevant.

    Oddly the CHL class action suit does have a short letter from the NHL extending the CHL agreement but they did not post the Section A referred to in that letter.

    Given the lead sentence I’ve quoted and given that most articles refer to where you were drafterd OUT OF, and given that we don’t have access to the agreement, I’d have to see a real case matching Broberg where the order is: drafted by the CHL, never played in the CHL, drafted by the NHL. On the other side if I went through enough of the Euros who went from Europe to the AHL before 20 I’d be looking to see if any of them happened to be named in the import draft. Not sure how often CHL teams draft imports who do not come. So no idea how many cases you’d need to look for to find examples that match Broberg.

  96. rickithebear says:

    Holland, Tippett, & Playfair narrative from interviews.
    1. Do not want to touch def much.
    2. Desire Dmen with size & length (span)
    3. Prioritize GA def with subtle system recognition changes
    4. Want All 5 skaters as attacking options but GA def must be assured. ( no rovers)
    5. Intelligent high center blue/our side of center transition passing. Top guys like Russell

    Let’s hear it for 3-2-1 structures attacking opp HD area with Dmen coming down to top of circles as 4th & 5th options but no deeper. Things rovers fail to understand.

    Holland understands low GA makes you playoff competative.
    But if you get in the best HD open sh defences rise to the final 4.

    You want top 125 fwd depth.
    Mcdavid 1C 40G 110P
    Draisaitl 1LW/2C40G 90P
    RNH 2C 25G 60P
    Kassian 1/3 RW w/ Mcdavid 20G 45-50P
    Gagner 3RW/3C 15G 24A 39P

  97. Nit64 says:

    Professor Q:
    Question for the group, since we’re discussing the draft nuances and AHL time:

    What if they’re drafted by the CHL but go the NCAA route, and are drafted out of the NCAA?

    Jack Roslovic technically could have dropped out and played for the Knights, yet instead played for the Moose and Jets. I’m sure there are other cases with similar factors involved, too.

    If they play in the CHL they can’t go NCAA. As with the Euro my understand is that to be delayed to 20 in the AHL two things must both be true:

    * drafted by the CHL before the NHL
    * played in the CHL

  98. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: No – that isn’t correct.There are nuances.

    If you’ve seen the actual agreement please share some of these nuances. The only nuances I have seen is that the ineligibility is based on two factors CHL draft before NHL draft AND CHL play.

  99. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    I think she is saying AND in the first statement because not everyone playing in the CHL was drafted by the CHL, and she intends to include those players. Ie. the rule still applies. And I disagree that this is the more precise statement.

    This from the Wikipedia entry on the CHL Import Draft:

    One benefit of selecting an import player before he is drafted into the NHL, is that he is treated like a North American player in the sense that he will either have to play in the CHL or NHL, and not in the American Hockey League.

  100. Professor Q says:

    Nit64: If they play in the CHL they can’t go NCAA. As with the Euro my understand is that to be delayed to 20 in the AHL two things must both be true:

    * drafted by the CHL before the NHL
    * played in the CHL

    Roslovic was drafted by Flint in 2013, two years prior to being drafted by Winnipeg. He played one more year in the USNTDP Juniors after being drafted by Flint, and then one year at Miami of Ohio after being drafted by Winnipeg. London traded for his rights, and there was a lot of excitement surrounding the possibility that he might join the squad and play with Tkachuk (the signing of his Entry Level Deal prevented him from staying in the NCAA).

    He instead played in the AHL that year, at 19 years of age.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    Munny:
    There is material risk in sending Pujo to Europe for next season. His value could easily be less in a year.If there are multiple teams interested now, use that and do your best to get a roster player out of the deal.

    Easily less is difficult given how low the bar is now.🙃

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Has there been a Swedish defensemen successfully progress through the CHL route to the NHL?I don’t think so.The smartest men in the room are going to do it again.

    This. I don’t see how going from playing pro hockey against men to playing junior hockey against teenagers challenges him, especially being so big and fast.

    He’ll destroy the league but won’t be challenged enough to grow in his game. Maybe fighting for ice time there is the challenge he needs if he can’t go to the A.

  103. leadfarmer says:

    And stats darling DeHaan dumped already

  104. Munny says:

    Professor Q: Roslovic was drafted by Flint in 2013

    Flint didn’t draft anyone in 2013. They didn’t even exist till 2015.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chicago Blackhawks

    Verified account

    @NHLBlackhawks
    Follow Follow @NHLBlackhawks
    More
    The #Blackhawks have acquired defenseman Calvin de Haan and forward Aleksi Saarela from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for goaltender Anton Forsberg and defenseman Gustav Forsling.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Moral of the story
    Keep your cap space. Carolina attached a pretty good prospect to get rid of the cap of a pretty good defenseman to get very little back

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dustrock:
    Dammit Canada.

    Saved penalty, poor all-around touches in the box.

    They worked hard and the D was pretty stellar, but I never believed in their offence.Sinclair could not get service on the ball, and most of the Canadian tactic seemed to consistent of going hard down the right side and firing in crosses.

    Absolutely flabbergasted you wouldn’t have Sinclair take the penalty.Even just for form’s sake, if nothing else.

    Ah well, I wasn’t convinced they’d even get out of the group round, so well played, get some offensive creativity, and maybe next time they’ll have a shot at the quarters.

    No offensive creativity or aggressive attack is the hallmark of Canadian soccer. Sinclair is fantastic and hopes have always relied on a player or two. Changes far down the ladder in amateur soccer is probably the answer, won’t be coming soon as I see it.

    Going from anecdotes from acquaintances trying to do things in soccer (a friend takes a cast off team with three days practice to a rep tournament and destroys them all) and other sports that are done in countries actually strong in the sport, the folks that are entrenched are pretty resistant to change.

  108. Glovjuice says:

    ArmchairGM: *drops mic*

    Players still want control regarding where they may go from Edmonton though.

  109. Professor Q says:

    Munny: Flint didn’t draft anyone in 2013. They didn’t even exist till 2015.

    Fine. Flint when they were still Plymouth.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    PennersPancakes: Not commenting on whether its a good idea or not, but this is exactly what Chicago did with 2018 8th overall Swedish Defensman Adam Boqvist last season.

    Teenager sized offensive player with questions about defensive play. The best path isn’t the same for players.

  111. RonnieB says:

    I was hoping the Oilers would target Aleksi Saarela in a JP trade, but Carolina just traded him to Chicago.

  112. Munny says:

    Professor Q: Fine. Flint when they were still Plymouth.

    Yes, thank you, but I am pretty sure his year of NCAA college took precedence over the CHL mandate. Was this what came out of the Morin affair, I can’t remember? This is part of the problem… multiple agreements, none of which we are privy to.

    And being born in Ohio, of course, Roslovic wasn’t part of the Import Draft. I don’t know why the two drafts would be different, but again there may be special rules and agreements to which we are not privy.

    If only there was a lawyer here who could explain and source what he means by nuance.

  113. Munny says:

    Munny: Was this what came out of the Morin affair, I can’t remember?

    Nope. That was just about the Hawks avoiding cap hit.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I like Broberg getting heavy minutes in the OHL for Hamilton.

    Get used to smaller ice and different decision making due to that right away.

    Play more minutes than he would in Europe

    AHL year after.

    Still won’t be eligible for the AHL.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: pretty good but I’d argue his development was stunted in the CHL and got going again in the AHL.
    It’s not been a great route for swedes and I don’t like the OHL idea for Broberg. In particular Broberg since he skates past most of his peers at will, don’t think a junior league, even if it’s the best there is, will help him develop the more subtle parts his game needs better than the SHL. It’s not like the SHL has a bad track record developing NHL D.

    That’s exactly one issue that I brought up yesterday, or maybe the day before. I find that sometimes, junior prospects that are bigger and faster than almost anyone else on the ice can use that speed over and over to succeed, both offensively and defensively, and it impedes their ability to work on deficient aspect of their game.

    Also, since Broberg won’t be AHL eligible for two full seasons, does two CHL seasons make sense? I wouldn’t think so. I wouldn’t think he’d play on CHL season and then head back to SHL before coming over for good.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Leave Broberg in Sweden. They will develop him for us and playing with the professionals and practicing with professionals over there will help his game against more difficult competition.
    We always think we know better and bring players over too quickly.
    While he will get to learn playing against men and not kids.

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q:
    Question for the group, since we’re discussing the draft nuances and AHL time:

    What if they’re drafted by the CHL but go the NCAA route, and are drafted out of the NCAA?

    Jack Roslovic technically could have dropped out of Miami of Ohio and played for the Flint Firebirds, as he was drafted by them in 2013, later to be acquired by the London Knights. Although to be fair, he could have just went straight to the OHL instead of playing a year each in the USNTDP and Miami.

    Yet instead, Roslovic was drafted in the 2015 draft by Winnipeg, then dropped out after a year in Miami (at 18 years old, so he signed his Entry Level Deal that Spring/Summer at 19 years of age and played in the AHL at 19) and played for the Moose and Jets. I’m sure there are other cases with similar factors involved, too.

    How did he circumvent the 20 Years Old threshold, despite being a CHL drafted player? This question is based on the reasonings given that if a player is drafted into the CHL prior to being drafted into the NHL, even if they never play, they are subject to that rule.

    Excellent point and it sways the argument for me. I don’t see how Hamilton has any control over where Broberg plays next year (vis a vis AHL). I don’t think, if they elect to play him in CHL next year, that he’s stuck there for 3 years.

  118. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Still won’t be eligible for the AHL.

    Still will be eligible. Courtesy of Munny. Lead paragraph. How are you reading AND here. Sources for your nuances?

    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: There is no way a third line centre has equal value to a 2-3 right shot D. That doesn’t even take into account age and contract.

    Except Kadri is only a third line center in the same way Nuge is. I don’t know multiple 30G scorers that are nothing more than 3rd line centers.

    Also, the contracts favor Kardi over Brodie – Brodie is a UFA in one-year and will get a massive raise. Kadri is locked in for 3 more at a value contract and won’t see material decline through that term.

  120. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra:
    I mean seriously.I know Kadri has baggage, but on the ice he is a similar player to Nugent-Hopkins with a cheaper contract and more term.

    Don’t believe me, check out his pts/60 while often playing in a shutdown role.

    You can quibble as to who is the better player but they are clearly in the same category of player.

    And you guys think you can get him for Russell?

    Hey, you know who Kadri reminds me of? *squints eyes* Ryan Nugent Hopkins!

    So their p/60 is similar. I KNOW you’re smart enough to know the correlation/causation thingy. Hey, they also both identity as male AND hockey players! It’s uncanny!

    When was the last time you saw RNH hard matched against Crosby and Nuge is just sticking him in the ribs at every opportunity?

  121. rickithebear says:

    When looking at players +/-
    Playing in a repeatative 3-2-1 team we see seasonal numbers of +2 to +10 regularly
    In a 4-1-1-1 team we see -4 to -16 regularly.
    It is stunning how seasonal results mirror SOE affect results.
    The need for for a 4th. Variable is needed on situational graphing.
    It is a game changer:
    My proprietary theorem!
    All situational predictive mean graphing requires a
    4D graph of
    Team,
    Comp,
    ZS, &
    % of 4-1-1-1 structure.

    The question is does the FWD failure to run NZ trap also mirror SOE affect results.

    We should be able to create a 5D graph that includes
    Team
    Comp
    ZS
    % of 4-1-1-1 structure
    % of failed fwd BZ trap.
    To pretty much nail a +ve/-ve erformance value above/ below situational column results.
    EVP/60
    +/-
    ETC.

    This Establishes the first real WAR in Hockey!
    Though PAR would be the better description
    Production above replacement.

    It parallels SOE affect!

    BOOM!

  122. Oil2Oilers says:

    If Vancouver, as rumored, is heading for Cap hell there might be an opportunity for the Oilers.

    Brandon Sutter is a competent #3C who is right handed and kills penalties. His contact is for two more years at $4.35M and the Canucks have younger and cheaper players that can fill that roll. The Oilers do not.

    Oilers acquiring him for Manning (1 year at $2.25M) and Bear. This gives Vancouver defensive depth they can bury in the AHL plus Bear’s upside potential.

    Oilers get a 3C. He is not cheap but unloading the Manning money helps for the first year. Decision on Cap versus performance can be made the following year. Injuries are the biggest concern with Sutter.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra: This might be the single most ridiculous ideas I have read here.

    Russell’s contract has negative value.You can’t trade it without taking a negative contract back.You can’t even get back a 7th pick back.

    Kadri, on the other hand, has one of the best value contracts in the league.

    The price for Kadri is Larsson +++

    I will remind you of this when it doesn’t work out the way you think. Yes Kadri has that kind of value but if Marner gets the kind of money everybody is talking about with Toronto also requiring minimum of two top four D all bets are off. The leafs are bent over only question is who takes advantage!

  124. godot10 says:

    Carolina is a budget team. They are trading salary to free up money to sign Aho. Their initial offer of 8 x $6 million was laughable.

    Aho’s minimum is probably $8 million. Also, Jake Bean tore up the AHL last year is a left D. Haydn Fleury also. Trevor Carrick.

  125. Ben says:

    Carolina making space for the JP+Russell for Wallmark+Gauthier deal.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    So Samorukov is only going back to Russia for a few weeks to visit his family and will come back to Edmonton for like a month and a half – great stuff.

  127. Mr DeBakey says:

    Pánik, Fernando $3,210,000 ** McDavid, Connor $12,500,000 ** Kassian, Zack $1,950,000
    Khaira, Jujhar $1,234,000 ** Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000 ** Ferland, Micheal $3,210,000
    Benson, Tyler $808,333 ** Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000 ** Chiasson, Alex $1,234,000
    Nygård, Joakim $925,000 ** Cave, Colby $675,000 ** Currie, Josh $687,500
    Lucic, Milan $6,000,000 ** Marody, Cooper $925,000

    Sekera, Andrej $5,500,000 ** Larsson, Adam $4,166,666
    Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000 ** Russell, Kris $4,000,000
    Nurse, Darnell $3,200,000 ** Benning, Matthew $1,900,000
    Persson, Joel $1,000,000

    Reimer, James $3,400,000
    McElhinney, Curtis $1,234,000

    CAP HIT – $80,954,276
    CAP SPACE – $545,724

    Trades:
    EDM Reimer, James
    FLA Manning, Brandon

    Buyouts:
    Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
    Eric Gryba: $300,000
    Mikko Koskinen: $744,444

    If Chiasson wants more, sign Ilya Mikheyev or Brandon Pirri.
    If a Cap-saving trade for Russell can be made……upgrades can be made elsewhere.
    This assumes Puljujärvi is playing in Finland for a season.

  128. Munny says:

    Nit64: This is true for a player who played in the CHL and wasn’t drafted by the NHL first.

    That does not say that. Just “drafted” as Connors states later in her article.

    Nit64: Still will be eligible. Courtesy of Munny. Lead paragraph. How are you reading AND here. Sources for your nuances?
    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”

    Again, she makes a statement that conflicts with the ambiguous language in this statement later in the article. Beware of language used by sportswriters… they’ve probably never taken a symbolic logic course in their lives and know not the havoc they can wreak, lol.

    ____

    N64,

    I’ve actually been trying to find an example that proves your point (because basically I just want to know the truth) by combing through the Import Draft, and I’ve uncovered this one that seems to break ALL the rules…

    Julius Honka, drafted by the SC Broncos in 2013. Played for the Broncos in 13-14. Drafted by the Stars in 2014, played in the A as a 19 yo in 14-15.

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrhockey-buzzing-the-net/whl-s-swift-current-broncos-lose-julius-honka-to-dallas-stars–ahl-team–which-could-have-ripple-effect-042557619.html

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/edmonton-loses-a-prospect-while-dallas-beats-the-system

    Not the same situation. However, here it is clear that whichever European team owns your rights takes precedence over the CHL draft.

    I capitulate to your side on this. He can play in the A.

  129. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except Kadri is only a third line center in the same way Nuge is.I don’t know multiple 30G scorers that are nothing more than 3rd line centers.

    Also, the contracts favor Kardi over Brodie – Brodie is a UFA in one-year and will get a massive raise.Kadri is locked in for 3 more at a value contract and won’t see material decline through that term.

    This is true but how many first pairing right D are on the market for Kadri’s contract which may be as much as Toronto can afford. My point is value is one thing cap space is another. Toronto may get a great deal on a right shot D but who do you see lining up to help them?

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wherever it comes out on the AHL eligible vs. not-Eligible conundrum, the organization has already stated that he won’t be in the AHL this year – that was stated right after the draft (can’t remember if it ws Holland, Howson or Green but it was express).

    Where it could matter is next season – if he plays in the CHL this year, its unlikely they’d prefer him there for two.

  131. greenshifter says:

    Imagine if Myers gets 7×7!! Keep drafting Dmen high every year please.

    Agree with Godot’s plan of seeing what shakes out from the cap strapped teams instead of free agents.

    Sign Mrazek though, hopefully under 5 per

    PTO Pirri

    PTO Schenn (if Russell can be moved)

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    SwedishPoster,

    Not able to play in the AHL until draft +3?

    Yeesh.

    Yes, if the AHL/CHL rule applies – he’s only 17 right now.

    Its not uncommon for CHL drafted players to not be eligible for the AHL until their draft plus 3 – Samorukov for example, Maksimov as another example.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:

    How did he circumvent the 20 Years Old threshold, despite being a CHL drafted player? This question is based on the reasonings given that if a player is drafted into the CHL prior to being drafted into the NHL, even if they never play, they are subject to that rule.

    Where I read that nuance – it was specific to Europeans.

  134. McSorley33 says:

    godot10,

    Agreed.

    Jake Bean and Trevor Carrick are both LHD prospects….so that is probably
    What Holland is after in a JP trade with Carolina.

    Maybe G Alex Nedeljkovic.

  135. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, if the AHL/CHL rule applies – he’s only 17 right now.

    Its not uncommon for CHL drafted players to not be eligible for the AHL until their draft plus 3 – Samorukov for example, Maksimov as another example.

    This is the more important reason to know the eligibility rules. That he can go there, if desired, any time prior to turning 20.

    Please review the situation I posted above with regards to Honka and let us know your thoughts.

    It appears that he can go the A route, unless the CHL/NHL have closed the loophole, which would require the IIHF’s agreement.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64: Still will be eligible. Courtesy of Munny. Lead paragraph. How are you reading AND here. Sources for your nuances?

    “Players drafted and PLAYING for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors”

    Firstly, I apologize for the “you are wrong, I am right” and “certainty” nature of my posts. I posted them prior to reading the evolving discussion on the topic later in the thread.

    With that said, the European nuance changes the “drafted AND playing for” criteria in my interpretation.

    Does that Vishnevskiy not apply? It doesn’t say that he had to be playing in the CHL prior to the NHL draft even if that was, in practice the case. That isn’t cited as a requirment for drafted in the important draft prior to the NHL draft.
    —————————————————-

    European players further complicate The Agreement. If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them. However, if they’re drafted as a member of a European squad, and choose post-NHL-draft to play for a CHL team, they can, in fact, report to the NHL team’s minor squads before the age limit kicks in. To explain this in detail, let’s look at three European players who were drafted in 2006: Jiri Tlusty, Artem Anisimov, and Ivan Vishnevskiy. Based on the agreement, the age cutoff for the AHL for 18-year-old players drafted in 2006 would be 20 years old by December 30, 2008.

    Artem Anisimov is the simplest of these three cases. He was drafted by the New York Rangers out of the Yaroslavl Locomotiv of the KHL, and was assigned to the Hartford Wolf Pack at the age of 19 for the 2007-2008 season. He turned 20 on May 24, 2008. No CHL involvement means no age restriction. Easy enough.

    Ivan Vishnevskiy is the opposite case. He was the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies’ (QMJHL) second pick in the CHL import draft in 2005, before being drafted by the Dallas Stars out of R-N in 2006. Since he was drafted from a CHL team, the same rules apply to Vishnevskiy as any other player drafted from a CHL team: 20 years old or 4 years of play. Vishnevskiy played for Rouyn-Noranda for three seasons, turned 20 during the 2007-2008 season, and reported to the Peoria Rivermen of the AHL to start the 2008-2009 season.

    Jiri Tlusty exemplifies the strange hybrid case of a European player who played for the CHL but was drafted from Europe. He was drafted tenth overall in 2006 from HC Kladno of the Czech Extraliga, then signed with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the OHL. After one season, he split the season between the Marlies of the AHL and the NHL’s Maple Leafs as a 19-year-old. Since he was drafted by the Maple Leafs from Europe, he was eligible for minor league play. David Krejci could have been in a similar situation; he was also drafted from HC Kladno in the same draft before playing for the Gatineau Olympiques of the QMJHL the following season; he, however, opted to spend two years in juniors before playing for the AHL P-Bruins at the age of 20.

    These rules don’t just apply to Europeans, as was the case with the Blackhawks’ Jeremy Morin. He was drafted out of the USA’s National Development program before signing with the Kitchener Rangers in 2009-2010. After some controversy, it appears he will report to Rockford of the AHL to begin the 2010-2011 season if he does not make the Blackhawks’ NHL squad.

  137. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So Samorukov is only going back to Russia for a few weeks to visit his family and will come back to Edmonton for like a month and a half – great stuff.

    His interview was excellent. Howson’s comments on Samurokov not getting any offensive opportunities in Bakersfield next year are both realistic and disappointing. Realistic because of the depth chart down there, disappointing because when you find money you should not piss it away without a little bit of fun first.

  138. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Does that Vishnevskiy not apply? It doesn’t say that he had to be playing in the CHL prior to the NHL draft even if that was, in practice the case.

    His issue is that he played in CHL before the NHL draft. After the NHL draft he could have played in the CHL draft and still gone early to the A as per the examples.

    You can’t play in the CHL before being drafted and the CHL drafts right after the NHL. So the only scenarios are:

    CHL draft, NHL draft (Broberg, I’m reading eligible)
    CHL draft, CHL play, NHL draft (update: generally ineligible, but see Honka)
    NHL draft, CHL draft, CHL play (clearly eligible)
    NHL draft, CHL draft (clearly eligible)

  139. Munny says:

    Nit64: CHL draft, CHL play, NHL draft (clearly ineligible)

    Apparently not ineligible. This is precisely the situation that Honka got around, because he had played as a pro in Europe prior to playing for the Broncos. So was considered on loan from JYP… and both the CHL Import Draft AND CHL play were rendered completely irrelevant.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, in reference to the Top 20 piece at The Athletic, I find it interesting that you have Mariano and, in particular, Safin over Phil Kemp.

    Thoughts on Kemp? Issues?

  141. Professor Q says:

    Wow. Rumours include Talbot signing with the Flames.

    This could be very good or very bad for Edmonton.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64: His issue is that he played in CHL before the NHL draft. After the NHL draft he could have played in the CHL draft and still gone early to the A as per the examples.

    You can’t play in the CHL before being drafted and the CHL drafts right after the NHL. So the only scenarios are:

    CHL draft, NHL draft (Broberg, I’m reading eligible)
    CHL draft, CHL play, NHL draft (clearly ineligible)
    NHL draft, CHL draft, CHL play (clearly eligible)
    NHL draft, CHL draft (clearly eligible)

    The first scenario is still not cut and dry and it could still mean not eligible even though he hasn’t played in the CHL – there is nothing out there that we’ve seen that doesn’t create some ambiguity on the matter.

  143. rickithebear says:

    Ufa 18-19 viable oilers choices:
    You pick!

    Holland understands we need Goals.
    Need to look at veteran depth that forces our prospect fwds to earn a spot.
    Need to look for cheap cap options near Gagners production with 11-14 EVG potential over 2-4 seasons.

    Gagner buyout makes zero sense.
    He is part of what limited G scoring depth we have.
    The 2M savings from buyout will be spent on a fwd with likely less production.
    Holland may question his 2 way g amen& replace it. But that is the only way.
    But that drags 1M into next year.
    When Pouliot s 1.3333 is coming off & we could likely use.

    Younger UFA options

    Johannssonn (28yr) 78gm 19G 29A 49P +2; .50 ppg
    Ferland (27) 78 gm 18G 18A 36P +6; playoff .30 ppg
    Brassard (31yr) 74gm 16G 20A 37P -2; playoff .40 ppg
    Connally (27yr) 72Gm 15G 15A 30P +4; playoff .29 ppg
    Pirri (28 yr) LW/RW 15G 12A 27P -1 with sub 1M salaries;
    Panik (28yr) 74gm 14G 20A 34P +2; playoff .3 ppg
    Donskoi (27yr) RW 69Gm 13G 22A 35P +5; playoff Top .5 ppg before this yr
    Sheehan (27yr) LW,C 79gm 12G 16A 28P -4; playoff .3 ppg
    C. Wilson (29yr) 11G 19A 30P +1; playoffs 65Gm 17G 33P high standard .51 ppg
    NSH 3-2-1 73gm 12G 22A 34P +6
    Col 4-1-1-1 60gm 9G 14A 23P -6
    Gibbons (31yr 62gm 10g 12A 22p +3; playoff .3 ppg
    Ennis (29 yr) C, LW, RW 60 gm 10G 10A 20P -3; playoff .33 ppg
    Lindbergh (27yr) LW,C 63Gm 10G 10A 20P +2; playoffs .33 ppg
    Puljujarvi (28yr) LW, RW 79gm 10g 8A +2, sub 800K salaries; playoffs .36 ppg
    Tanev (27yr) LW 64Gm 8G 9A 17P +5; playoff .36 ppg

    Older players:
    Vanek (35yr) LW,RW 72Gm 19G 24A 43P -8; playoff .37 ppg
    Pomminville (36yr) 14G 23A 37P -2; playoff .67 ppg
    Filpulla (35yr) C 77gm 13G 22A 34P +4; playoff .5 ppg
    Spezza (36yr) C,RW 77Gm 8G 18A 26P -12

    What players exceed ideal performance divided by cap range Holland wants.
    As well as max cap spent per player.

    PS: might start expressing players production in 3-2-1 & 4-1-1-1 terms.
    Hoping our team becomes a 3-2-1 fwd NZ trap team.
    Yeah Tippett.
    Puljujarvi showed same variance.

    The more I look at Cap situation and preserving 3-2-1
    Dmen who will flourish in 3-2-1
    Larsson, Russell, Benning, Nurse, Manning, Lagesson, Bouchard, Manning

    I buyout Sekera.
    But Would prefer Sekera for alzner a 1st comp PK, HD open sh stud.
    Trade a Klefbom to T.O. For Kapanen.

    It frees up 1-4M in cap while filling a 2W Slot.
    Add a big Dman with span & PK def zone strength.

    Lucic
    16.7 SH% in 3-2-1 dominated team
    7.2% in 4-1-1-1 dominated team

  144. jp says:

    Cassandra:
    I mean seriously.I know Kadri has baggage, but on the ice he is a similar player to Nugent-Hopkins with a cheaper contract and more term.

    Don’t believe me, check out his pts/60 while often playing in a shutdown role.

    You can quibble as to who is the better player but they are clearly in the same category of player.

    And you guys think you can get him for Russell?

    It’s shocking how divisive a player Kadri is.

    I immediately thought of RNH too when PTS2PNDR called Kadri a 3C. Absolutely agree they’re in the same range.

    Was going to look up Kadri’s league wide scoring in recent years. He’s tied for 71st among forward in the league over the past 3 seasons. And huh, tied with RNH. The guy also played >44% vs elites in the 3 yrs before this one.

    I’m honestly at a loss how anyone anywhere thinks he has negative value, though some do it seems.

  145. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    Leave Broberg in Sweden.They will develop him for us and playing with the professionals and practicing with professionals over there will help his game against more difficult competition.
    We always think we know better and bring players over too quickly.
    While he will get to learn playing against men and not kids.

    I like the idea of leaving him in Sweden for two years depending on the ice time he is receiving. It will allow him to physically mature and get experience playing against men. This would have him coming over at 19. If unable to make the third pairing Oiler D which I believe he would with the mentorship available give him one more year in Sweden.

  146. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: Rishaug mentioned on the “Morning Mandate” that he knows for a fact they he tried to but also that ANA would have picked Broberg.

    Comforting to know that Anaheim would have picked Broberg. They seem to know Defencemen.

  147. Glovjuice says:

    Nit64:
    The BobFather list and the actual draft have the same top 1, top 2, top 5 and top 18. Essentially the BobFather list looked like this with exactly one D in the top 13:

    Top 2: Hughes/Kakko
    Next 3:Dach/Byram/Turcotte
    Next 8: Seven Forwards and a Goalie
    Next 5: Five D

    Hair on fire fans in various markets believe there teams overpaid for four of those five D.

    But did any GM believe that most of those D would actually be outside the top 13? Heck 3 of 6 were drafted top 10. Just like the GMs would have expected year after year.As per comments to Bob the guys Bob is polling are talking about consensus market ranking not necessarily their internal boards.

    Team Zoom USA and useful Offensive Analytics gave them 7 forwards to sort out andthen they laddered on the next 5D. Surprise.Surprise. At the actual draft those forwards between 5 and 13 dropped an average of 3.1 spots from Bob’s List and those D from 14 to 18 jumped 4.6 spots.

    Looking ONLY at D between the two lists we can see three cohorts with Broberg going exactly in order of D:

    TSN / D Order / Draft

    1 / Byram/ 1

    2 /Soderstrom / 4
    3 / Broberg /3
    4 / Seider / 2

    5 / Harley / 6
    6 / York /5

    The market has spoken.Five D at 14-18 was a pipe dream. They were always going to go higher than that. No one was going to pay you and let you take them later.

    Fans can pick their favorite F at 8, but whether Broberg busts and their guy booms, the D market and the Oil Board were way more rational than many fans.

    Excellent analysis. The USA team was zoom personified (time will tell of course). The fact that Yzerman took a D – one off the board – is a great indication that the smart money was in tune with the zoom. Broberg is a 2 at worst – Very young, second best skater in the draft; bam. Scotty Niedermier actually had hands of stone when you look back.

  148. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The first scenario is still not cut and dry and it could still mean not eligible even though he hasn’t played in the CHL – there is nothing out there that we’ve seen that doesn’t create some ambiguity on the matter.

    Not ironclad, but I’m working off of this:

    The rule is as follows:

    Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.”

    She leads with “the rule is as follows” and then uses AND not OR.

    This statement is further down and it seems more exploration than definition. I suspect this is only true if you actually play in CHL. I think it’s exploring the case where the NHL drafts you before the CHL:

    “If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.”

    Tomorrow I’ll see if I can look through the import drafts and see how many players followed the Brogerg’s case; i.e. CHL draft then NHL draft without any CHL play. And then I’ll see if any played in the AHL before 20. Quickly checked a few years and there weren’t a lot drafted by the CHL AND skipped CHL play AND ever played in North America at any level.

  149. Bulging Twine says:

    ArmchairGM: Would have been nice to have had a 5th on the weekend. Just sayin.

    and a 6th for Petrovic who didn’t play one game after the deadline
    and a 6th for Gravel who would be crazy to resign here
    and a 3rd for Chiasson

  150. Bulging Twine says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Carolina is run so well, man. JP for Gauthier is like when they pulled off Niederreiter for Rask.

    Just don’t answer their calls, let JP play in Europe.

    Uptick since they hired Rick Dudley

  151. El Duderino says:

    Nit64: Not ironclad, but I’m working off of this:

    The rule is as follows:

    Players drafted and playing for CHL teams are ineligible to play in the professional minor leagues (AHL, ECHL) until they are 20 years old (by December 31st of that year) or have completed four years in major juniors.”

    She leads with “the rule is as follows” and then uses AND not OR.

    This statement is further down and it seems more exploration than definition. I suspect this is only true if you actually play in CHL. Ithink it’s exploring the case where the NHL drafts you before the CHL:

    “If European players are drafted in the CHL draft before they’re drafted by an NHL club, this rule applies to them.”

    Tomorrow I’ll see if I can look through the import drafts and see how many players followed theBrogerg’s case; i.e. CHL draft then NHL draft without any CHL play. Andthen I’ll see if any played in the AHL before 20. Quickly checked a few years and there weren’t a lot drafted by the CHL AND skipped CHL play AND ever played in North America at any level.

    Quite a boring brain battle here.

  152. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Also, I have a few athletes as clients.There are things that can be done to reduce the taxes: its’ one of the big reasons why so many players have these “off-season bonuses”

    – I know what I’m talking about.Those who disagree that taxes aren’t a consideration do not.Plus if you have ever dealt with an athlete, losing a few hundred grand matters more to them than you can appreciate.They are just wired different: their “pay” is part of the competitive psyche.Taxes matter a lot on dollars and to them.It just is

    – Here is how is works, Depending on where you are a “tax resident”athletes only pay tax in Canada based onCanadian “duty days.” Provincially and Federally. Duty days begin on the first day of training camp and end either when the regular season ends or when the team finishes its playoff run. Canadian duty days count the number of days that the players are in Canada for games, practices, training and days off. So one of my clients: he has 70% per cent of total duty days in Ontario

    – So you can see why they have these bonuses paid in the off-season: they get taxed at wherever they “reside”, and aren’t “duty days”

    Interesting … was never sure how this actually worked. Thank you, Kinger.

  153. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja: I like that that Pitlick fella wish the Oilers would acquire players like him on the cheap and he willmore than cover his bet. He’ll blossom in Philly the fans thrive on hard working go to the net blue-collar players with skill.

    Vigneault likes wingers with good straight line speed – Pitlick has pretty good straight line speed. I don’t know about Hartman’s.
    I liked the Pitlick kid too

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q:
    Wow. Rumours include Talbot signing with the Flames.

    This could be very good or very bad for Edmonton.

    Against us he’ll rock. But he’s far too sensitive to be a starter or apparently backup in the N. Maybe it’ll work if he has no significant challenges there.

    Being a pro athlete involves a high level of low sensitivity and a perhaps an unhealthy in normal life compete level.

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Leafs need cap. Russell is only 500K less. Shorter term. I’m not sure that helps them enough unless Holland retains, and boy wonder likes the fancies.

    Edit: Russell and Kadri.

  156. Glovjuice says:

    JJ:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo! says:
    June 24, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    Andy Dufresne,

    I try and pry Kadri from the Leafs. He can score, he draws more penalties than he takes, he annoys and he can play all roles.

    Toronto is cap screwed, have no defense and Kadri is on the outs with a coach who isn’t necessarily in line with his GM. The Oilers are well stocked at the very position the Leafs are lacking and can afford to part with one defenseman.

    Toronto is the desperate team in this transaction, the Marleau disposal showed it. Holland can sit and wait, no need to rush, let Kyle come to you.

    Russell is your starting piece, he saves the $500,000 and is a year shorter. Yes he’s older, but can play both sides and in any situation. He also brings the “grit” that I can see a guy like Babcock loving

    ————————————————–

    I talked about this possibility after Kadri lost his temper and got suspended and then the Leafs were eliminated.

    The idea got roasted by a couple of folks on here (their idea being that Kadri > Russell).

    The Kadri for Russell idea assumes that:
    1) after signing Marner, the Leafs will need to dump salary,
    2) they may have soured somewhat on Kadri after the suspension and elimination, and
    3) as the end of the summer approaches and the Leafs are still short on defensemen, the versatile, gritty Russell will continue to look better and better as an option for them.The Leafs can’t start the season without a full slate of defensemen and expect to make the playoffs. Not making the playoffs is Dubas suicide.

    I agree that Kadri is greater than Russell. However, the Leafs have backed themselves into a corner and may believe a NHL defenseman like Russell is greater than Kadri, given their circumstances.

    Wouldn’t it be great if the Oilers created and transacted a trade that they win.

    </blockquot
    Ok then

  157. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    There is a clear indication of shooting less & not trying to have misses the last 2 years.

    Lucic hasn’t shot over 6.5/60 since 10/11

    He was just a hair over 5.0/60 in LA in 15/16

    He’s never been a volume shooter.

    His 5v5 SH% was identical in 17/18 and 18/19.

    This is who he is.

    You really do not get it.

    I am about to show you something on here I said I would not do.

    This formula and thereom is my personal property.
    Any use for competitive or financial gain without my permission is strictly prohibited.

    In 2006 coming to LT site taught me the value of analyzing hockey as a science.
    Observations that date back 50 years could be applied to this practice.

    In 2006 I started charting success rate of shots in OZone. I ended up with a basic shot success chart.
    At the same time Alan Ryder came out with his shot Quality study 2006.
    His numbers were a more refined version with some results.
    So yeilded to his study.

    When I looked at shot curves. They mirrored an observation I first developed 50 years ago.
    Re observed over the continuing years.
    The sh charts were a density.
    With graph amplitude increasing as you moved towards the net.
    They failed to recognize the density variance.

    My High danger theory was in place in 2006.
    I recognized HIgh danger shots ( from rickisbox as you guys called it years ago) went in 5 times more than low danger ( perimeter shots)

    45 years ago I observed Ronnie Gunville generate a high hit goalie rate by moving like a Table Hockey Goalie. The real differentiation of Quality of shot.

    Their are 2 parts to acquiring the proper shot data charts.

    The open and closed shot theory began 12 years ago.

    Open shots by open space in net location have a quality of going in.
    Closed shots hot goalies have 0% chance of going in. They have no shot quality.

    THE SCIENCE OF HOCKEY IS A GOAL MASS FORMULA.

    SHOT DENSITY x SHOT VOLUME = GOAL MASS
    Density = goals/sh by location&Quality
    Volume = SH/ gm
    Goal mass = goals/gm

    Their are 4 SHots to measure that have 3 different densities.

    1. Average open High Danger Shot Density = 5X
    2. Average Open Low Danger Shot Density = 1X
    3. Average Closed High Danger Shot Density = 0X
    4. Average Closed Low Danger shot Density = 0X

    x = average success rate of LDSH for that season.

    By Mass Formula.
    The goal mass potential of closed shot is 0.
    They must be excluded from any goal scorable data.

    The greatest influence on any shot is making it non Scoreable.
    * The biggest influence a dman can have is causing it to have a density value of 0.
    Kris Russell is the best at it.
    I have been able to define him for 11 years.

    * the 2nd biggest influence a dman can have is causing density to reduce.
    One of the best in the game Larsson.
    The proper structure to achieve top density reduction is 2D-1G structure.
    *1R – 1D-1G yields high density rates and higher % of scoreable shot Quality.

    as the ratio between open HDSH and open LDSH reduces the concern over 1-1-1 structure reduces.

    Of the 40+ theories I have.
    2 critical situational performance analysis went from 3D to 5D Analysis.

    * you want forward with high density rates with high volume rates so they end up with top of league goal volume.

    Lucic was a 1.67 sh/ gm volume player.
    Who concentrated on Trying to get highest % of open high danger 1.5x to 5X shots.
    Resulting in a high shooting% & volume
    He still continued with High danger penetration.
    But now he wa concentrating on not missing which lead to a shift to closed shots with densities = 0X

    You need to exclude all shots with a density of zero.
    You want to concentrate on get shots in the 2-5X range

    Their are a collection of theories that relate to entry- corsi – shot – goal progression.

    The 5 D situational graph includes the 5 biggest goal variance factors.

    Yiou have to get it now WG:

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    You may have personal property but if it causes one to value Kris Russell over Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, the means the personal property itself has no value. No disrespect intended.

  159. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The first scenario is still not cut and dry and it could still mean not eligible even though he hasn’t played in the CHL – there is nothing out there that we’ve seen that doesn’t create some ambiguity on the matter.

    Munny and OP,

    Here’s the case study Munny and I were looking for. Early AHL eligibility after not playing in the CHL (even though drafted by the AHL before the NHL):

    Adrian Kempe
    Born September 13, 1996
    CHL Import draft Barrie 2013
    No CHL Play, remained in Sweden
    NHL Draft 2014
    2014/15 move to AHL Manchester from Sweden

    https://chl.ca/prospects/2013/-185685088

    Not loaned to the CHL like Alex Nylander’s loophole:

    “Though normally players from the CHL aren’t allowed to “go pro” until their 20th birthday, Nylander had played the entire year with the Mississauga Steelheads on loan from his Swedish club, making him eligible like any other European prospect”

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/adrian-kempe/page/2

    If being loaning to the CHL is a loophole, then never going to the CHL has to keep you eligible for the A as per Munny’s initial reaction to the loophole 😉

    So Broberg could play for Woodcroft next year or the year after if he wants to come to North America

  160. slopitch says:

    I doubt we get Kadri for Russell lol

    To really change a teams fortune around is to win a trade. Flames and Blues both did it last summer. Colorado absolutely changed their fortune around moving Duchene for that haul. Meanwhile Ottawa, Boston and Edmonton are still reeling (we lost several). Im all for bold moves. Maybe Winnipeg re-signs Myers and Ehlers shakes loose. Maybe Kadri becomes available. Vegas also has to move lots of salary. The well run management teams seem to take adv of teams in these positions. I just wish we werent the team getting taken adv of all the time. Id like to find out if Holland still has it. Put the 2020 1st + JP in play? I think its worth dangling. Just be opportunistic, and calculated. If the oilers could get Mrazek, Burakovsky and win a trade (ill say JP + 1st + Bear for Ehlers), next season might be fun again.

  161. Pescador says:

    Bulging Twine: and a 6th for Petrovic who didn’t play one game after the deadline
    and a 6th for Gravel who would be crazy to resign here
    and a 3rd for Chiasson

    A definite plus that comes with the Holland hire is he won’t be GMing for his job when the next deadline comes around.

  162. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr: There is no way a third line centre has equal value to a 2-3 right shot D. That doesn’t even take into account age and contract.

    Kadri might play 3C in Toronto, but he’s definitely not a third line player. He’s top six on virtually every team in the league. He might be as good as RNH, maybe better. Older though.

  163. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    Good find! Confirmation is good. I think we have it surrounded, and can be confident too if he chooses to play for Staios, he can still choose to go to the A the year after. The IIHF considers it to be a loan from his Swedish pro club.

    So, a bridge hasn’t been burned by the Import Draft… and he can’t burn a bridge with his choice for next season. The A will be there when they want it, not at age 20.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Professor Q:
    Cassandra,

    Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much. Are you trolling right now? It seems like it. He’s a higher-level Kassian mixed with a Tom Wilson, and the Leafs are backed into a corner.

    Also, Russell’s contract does not have negative value. He is an effective and sought-after D-Man who got paid market value. Just because many on here disagreed with him being paid said market value, with term, specifically by Edmonton (when Edmonton was desperately trying to get any D they could), does not negate that fact.

    I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

  165. Nit64 says:

    Munny:
    Nit64,

    Good find! Confirmation is good. I think we have it surrounded, and can be confident too if he chooses to play for Staios, he can still choose to go to the A the year after.The IIHF considers it to be a loan from his Swedish pro club.

    So, a bridge hasn’t been burned by the Import Draft… and he can’t burn a bridge with his choice for next season.The A will be there when they want it, not at age 20.

    Surprisingly the rule does not penalize the player for being drafted by a league he did not sign up with. They’ll need to fix it up to make it more unfair 😉

    More seriously the current rule is awful for CHL players. Everyone else can develop against men before 20 and even before the NHL draft. e.g. euros can play in men’s leagues and the us dev team plays elite NCAA teams stocked with older players. This really reduces the opportunities from the CHL to the NHL.

    Long overdue for the CHL to allow 18 years old to go pro. Also players under pro contract should not be allowed in the CHL. These two changes would open up routes from the CHL to the NCAA and to the AHL at 18. Not doing this harms Canadians rising to the NHL.

  166. Munny says:

    Nit64,

    While I was looking for answers on the eligibility issue, I ran into an article that I thought made a lot of sense… That the eligibility rule shouldn’t be based on years but on games played in all competitions.

    So if you’re good enough to get regular shifts at 16 and 17, play on the international teams, go deep in the playoffs etc. you can make the jump earlier. Thus, this would only give eligibility to the kids who are dominating at the Jr level and can use more of a challenge.

    Not a bad idea.

  167. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

    I’m definitely not way off. Read it again.

    Zach Kassian is a 30 point player. A higher skilled version of him (with a bit of Tom Wilson thrown in; why do people always seem to miss the caveats?) would be a 40-50ish point player, which Kadri is. He’s only gotten 60 points once.

    I’m a Knights fan in Leafs territory. I hear all the pumped bias, too. Obviously Toronto would trade him for their needed Top RHD in Larsson. I’d trade Nuge for Erik Karlsson, too, if given the opportunity. Although there’s more pay difference between Larsson and Karlsson, of course.

    Coincidentally those two 30 goal years arrived once an Auston Matthews arrived. Whoever that scrub is. Although he might have also centred Marner and Nylander at times.

  168. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You may have personal property but if it causes one to value Kris Russell over Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, the means the personal property itself has no value.No disrespect intended.

    This is an opinion!
    So your point of view is not based on fact or Knowledge.

    It is nice that subjective the belief of old boys club Lowe, Chiarelli, Cherry that OFF Dmen are have great value mirrors yours.

    My study of Zone position & structure identifies them as a rover not a defenceman.
    My study shows a true 2 dman – Goalie Defence of the true critical def zone ( HD area) the highest value of anything in the game when wanting to win a championship.
    Turn shots into 0X density – no scorable value
    Or
    Reduce scoreable shots to the lowest x possible .1X

    When I looked @ GA rates and win ability.
    You win almost all the games you yeild 2 GA or less.
    Running 2-1 structure with top 60 HD dmen, 0% shot dmen, Open HD shot goalies
    Gets you closer to consistent 2Ga games.
    Running 1-1-1 structure creates overlap free path to create high rates of open 2x – 5X shots resulting in high Ga mass. So rovers like Klefbom & Nurse cause you to get closer to 3 ga rates.

    This is the biggest failing of your knowledge.
    In a Cap world we pay more for offence.
    Forwards and rovers cost too much to be able to have the off production depth to consistently out score 3 GA.

    The introduction of table hockey goalie movement by Roy & JVB caused the most significant change in density ratio between HD & LD shots.
    Pre table hockey goalie movement 80,s offence could out score 3 ga.

    Then in mid 90’s NJD ran a NZ fwd trap causing low Entry rates.
    They had 5-6 dmen deep 2-1 defensive structure that yeilded 19 sh/gm
    Those dmen were physical elite HD dmen that yeilded minimal HD shots.
    Their pressure yeilded historically low open shots.
    Broderick had minimal real shots to save.

    But most teams did not run an elite HD Open SH structure.
    So the other goalies yeilded 3.5 ga rates.

    From that time.
    We see the final 4 being a function of the most critical cup core structure.
    1. Top 15 HD open sh save% goalie
    2. As much HD open sh dman depth as possible.
    – 3+ dmen was good at original point of my analysis.
    – 4+ Dmen is a truer norm now.
    3. You require the being as deep a top 125 forward depth team with top 125 goal scoring depth the most critical.

    For 25 years now rovers do not have a +ve goal dif affect they had in 70’s & 80’s.

    Our team had the cup core roster needed.
    In 05-06 conf champ.
    16-17 series win against anahiem had the 2 interference goals been properly called.
    Competing for conf & maybe cup.

    You continue your 80’s opinion.
    I will continue my 94 to 2019 facts.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Carolina is a budget team.They are trading salary to free up money to sign Aho.Their initial offer of 8 x $6 million was laughable.

    Aho’s minimum is probably $8 million.Also, Jake Bean tore up the AHL last year is a left D.Haydn Fleury also. Trevor Carrick.

    Aho should get every penny Marner gets and maybe more. I would think 3 years from now they’ll be very happy to have him on a $10M long term contract.

    And Haydn Fleury hasn’t torn up anything. He’d likely be 7th defenseman in Bakersfield next year if he came over to the Oilers org.

  170. SwedishPoster says:

    Ok so he won’t have to wait until his draft +3 to go to the AHL. Makes sense. At least then he can go to the AHL after a year in juniors. So that’s good.

    Still think the SHL route is far better as it has a better track record with swedish players, he’d face tougher competition, gets to play with seasoned pros and Skellefteå also lost/dumped their top 3 LHD this off season and of the replacements only one could be argued to be pre-slotted ahead of him on the depth chart and even in his case he’s coming from a questionable season. So there will be every chance to get a spot in the top 4. As for pp time they lost their main PP D, Emil Djuse, to the Dallas Stars so there’s an opening there as well. He’ll probably compete with Jonathan Pudas and the other Oilers prospect Filip Berglund for PP time. Both RHD.
    If he can’t get proper ice time there’s always the option to loan him out to allsvenskan. Or he could join the Bulldogs midseason. It’s been done before, Daniel Bernhardt former Rangers prospect joined the London Knights midseason a few years ago for example.

    In the case of Broberg the issue at least won’t be mental maturity or lack of english skills. He’s fine there. I just believe he’ll learn more and better back home.

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    greenshifter: Imagine if Myers gets 7×7!! Keep drafting Dmen high every year please.

    I’m struggling to connect the dots here. What does Myers potential UFA deal have to do with the draft again?

  172. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    godot10,

    Agreed.

    Jake Bean and Trevor Carrick are both LHD prospects….so that is probably
    What Holland is after in a JP trade with Carolina.

    Maybe G Alex Nedeljkovic.

    Huh? He took what he felt was BPA in the draft, it doesn’t mean that he can’t read a depth chart. Trading JP for a depth LHD makes no sense.

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    rickithebear: Of the 40+ theories I have.

    I think I found the problem.

    😀

  174. Pouzar says:

    swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews

    NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers

    https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers

    Eliteprospects:
    Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)

    Stats:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

  175. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews

    NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers

    https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers

    Eliteprospects:
    Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)

    Stats:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

    4th line center candidate?

  176. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: 4th line center candidate?

    Sounds like it.

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m sorry, but you’re way off on Kadri. You compare him to Kassian, who has never scored 30 goals at any level, including his junior days on a stacked Windsor team. Kadri has scored 30 twice in the NHL. There is absolutely no way the Leafs trade Kadri for Russel. For Larsson yes, because he’s exactly what they need, a shutdown RHD. I would think the Canes gladly trade Hamilton for Kadri.

    I’m going to agree with this. Sure, Kadri has his warts and is currently “in trouble” with the Leaf franchise, however, he is a VERY good hockey player, a multiple time 30 goal scorer who provides plus attributes in other areas as well – signed to a value contract for a somewhat perfect term – 3 years left – won’t decline during that term.

    I think Larsson is actually very good value for Kadri and I think that Kadri would be awesome as an Oiler – check alot of boxes. At the same time, I wouldn’t make that trade today because, in isolation, as much as I’d love Kadri, given our current RD depth chart, I think that trade makes us work – Larsson is just too important right now. In a year that trade may work when Bouchard has a full year of pro and we know more about Jones on the right side and more about Persson (and even Bear – although unlikely to factor in the top 4 right D depth chart).

  178. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m going to agree with this.Sure, Kadri has his warts and is currently “in trouble” with the Leaf franchise, however, he is a VERY good hockey player, a multiple time 30 goal scorer who provides plus attributes in other areas as well – signed to a value contract for a somewhat perfect term – 3 years left – won’t decline during that term.

    I think Larsson is actually very good value for Kadri and I think that Kadri would be awesome as an Oiler – check alot of boxes.At the same time, I wouldn’t make that trade today because, in isolation, as much as I’d love Kadri, given our current RD depth chart, I think that trade makes us work – Larsson is just too important right now.In a year that trade may work when Bouchard has a full year of pro and we know more about Jones on the right side and more about Persson (and even Bear – although unlikely to factor in the top 4 right D depth chart).

    I disagree with it. I think you both are way off base.

    Check when he scored said 30 goals, and check how many assists he had in conjunction with that. Check who he played with. Then come back. He’s only done it twice and then back down he went this season.

    Check how many PIMs and suspensions he had, also, and THEN start relating the value to the value of Larsson, which is larger than Kadri BEFORE even taking to account his importance to the Oilers as their Top RHD. Then take into account his very good contract.

    That’s why the proposal of Larsson + a 1st or 2nd (or even any plus, really, unless it is Lucic) for Kadri is outright insulting.

    I’d obviously trade Nuge for Karlsson though (Larsson does have a better contract, and obviously doesn’t have as much offence), you’re right. Doesn’t mean it’s good value for the Sharks.

  179. greenshifter says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Seems like acquisition costs and contracts for top 4 Dmen are too steep a price nowadays.

    Draft and develop your own is my thinking there.

  180. jp says:

    Professor Q: I’m definitely not way off. Read it again.

    Zach Kassian is a 30 point player. A higher skilled version of him (with a bit of Tom Wilson thrown in; why do people always seem to miss the caveats?) would be a 40-50ish point player, which Kadri is. He’s only gotten 60 points once.

    I’m a Knights fan in Leafs territory. I hear all the pumped bias, too. Obviously Toronto would trade him for their needed Top RHD in Larsson. I’d trade Nuge for Erik Karlsson, too, if given the opportunity. Although there’s more pay difference between Larsson and Karlsson, of course.

    Coincidentally those two 30 goal years arrived once an Auston Matthews arrived. Whoever that scrub is. Although he might have also centred Marner and Nylander at times.

    The Kassian/Wilson comparisons don’t even fit stylistically. I don’t see it at all.

    Kassian and Wilson are 6’3, 210lb + wingers. Kadri is a 6′, 190lb C.

    As noted, Kassian has never scored 30 points. Kadri has never had less than 39 in a full season (and 44 in 48G during the lockout season). And scored 30 goals in each of the two years prior to this one.

    Kadri is a shit disturber and prone to meltdowns, but he’s had 43 and 42 PIM in the past 2 seasons. He’s only had 1PIM/Game once. Wilson has never had less than 128 in a season and Kassian has over 100 in 3 of the last 4.

    These aren’t remotely similar players in really any way.

    Professor Q: I disagree with it. I think you both are way off base.

    Check when he scored said 30 goals, and check how many assists he had in conjunction with that. Check who he played with. Then come back. He’s only done it twice and then back down he went this season.

    Check how many PIMs and suspensions he had, also, and THEN start relating the value to the value of Larsson, which is larger than Kadri BEFORE even taking to account his importance to the Oilers as their Top RHD. Then take into account his very good contract.

    That’s why the proposal of Larsson + a 1st or 2nd (or even any plus, really, unless it is Lucic) for Kadri is outright insulting.

    I’d obviously trade Nuge for Karlsson though (Larsson does have a better contract, and obviously doesn’t have as much offence), you’re right. Doesn’t mean it’s good value for the Sharks.

    Kadri’s most common linemates in the past 3 seasons are Komarov, Marleau, Brown, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Leivo, Hyman, Matthews. Not quite 97 minutes with Matthews in 3 years (of Kadri’s 3163 total 5on5 minutes).

    Matthews has had zero effect on Kadri’s offense. In fact, Matthews more likely hurt Kadri’s value by pushing him down the lineup than pumping him up. Note he has actually scored 1.88P/60 over that span (including the 2 x 30 goal season) with largely 3rd line teammates. And prior to this year vs extremely tough competition (>44% vs elites).

    I’m seeing basically zero similarities to Kassian/Wilson here. And a very very good player on a very good deal for 3 more seasons.

    I wouldn’t trade Kadri for Larsson either, due to the Oilers makeup, but I agree with OP that the value of the 2 players is very similar (recall that Larsson has one year less on his deal, and is coming off a very poor season). And expecting to get Kadri for Russell is a dream. Why would the leafs do that to save 500k? They’ll get far far better offers for Kadri assuming they do move him.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Ok so he won’t have to wait until his draft +3 to go to the AHL. Makes sense. At least then he can go to the AHL after a year in juniors. So that’s good.

    Still think the SHL route is far better as it has a better track record with swedish players, he’d face tougher competition, gets to play with seasoned pros and Skellefteå also lost/dumped their top 3 LHD this off season and of the replacements only one could be argued to be pre-slotted ahead of him on the depth chart and even in his case he’s coming from a questionable season. So there will be every chance to get a spot in the top 4. As for pp time they lost their main PP D, Emil Djuse, to the Dallas Stars so there’s an opening there as well. He’ll probably compete with Jonathan Pudas and the other Oilers prospect Filip Berglund for PP time. Both RHD.
    If he can’t get proper ice time there’s always the option to loan him out to allsvenskan. Or he could join the Bulldogs midseason. It’s been done before, Daniel Bernhardt former Rangers prospect joined the London Knights midseason a few years ago for example.

    In the case of Broberg the issue at least won’t be mental maturity or lack of english skills. He’s fine there. I just believe he’ll learn more and better back home.

    This is simply fantastic info on the depth chart – thank you so much.

  182. Professor Q says:

    jp,

    I said a higher skilled version of Kassian mixed with Tom Wilson. The Wilson part is the dirty and physical play leading to suspensions.

    Learn to read qualifiers.

    Kassian has also scored 30 points before (29 with Vancouver, and a few other high 20s; I wasn’t talking goals), and Chiasson even scored 20 goals this season. Maroon even had a high goal-scoring season before.

    I never suggested trading Russell, let alone trading Russell for Kadri, so I don’t know why you keep suggesting that I have.

    I’m not the one undervaluing Larsson here.

  183. jp says:

    Pouzar:
    swisshockeynews.ch@SwissHockeyNews
    NHL: Gaëtan Haas to join the Edmonton Oilers? #SCB #Oilers
    https://swisshockeynews.ch/index.php/shn/13-international/north-america/nhl/15482-gaetan-haas-to-join-the-edmonton-oilers
    Eliteprospects:
    Gaetan Haas is an offensive center, who plays a reliable and smart two-way game. An excellent skater, who reaches very good top-speed and can make end-to-end rushes. Has soft hands and strong puck-skills. Haas sees the ice well and can play the point on the Power Play, distributing the puck using his excellent vision. He leads by example by competing hard for the puck, doing solid backchecking and not being afraid blocking shots, rounding out his solid defensive game. Haas can lead a team’s shutdown line. (by Rafik Soliman, November 2015)
    Stats:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125053

    Nice to see Ken looking under lots of rocks for some cheap depth.

    A couple more tidbits from Elite Prospects. He’s been a fixture on the Swiss World Championship and Olympic teams for years. And he was an NLA all-star in each of the past 2 seasons despite the modest scoring totals, so the guy must have some real 2-way ability.

    Also, the MAP dream may not be dead 🙂
    He’s still playing there and put up very similar numbers to Haas the past 2 seasons.
    And fun facts: Hass was teammates with Mark Arcobello (currently 30 years old) who finished 2nd in NLA scoring. MAP (now 34) was teammates with Toni Rajala (now 28) who finished 4th in NLA scoring. Lots of Oilers connections to that league.

  184. Yeti says:

    Pouzar: Sounds like it.

    I like that kind of bet! Hope he joins.

  185. Yeti says:

    jp: Hass was teammates with Mark Arcobello (currently 30 years old) who finished 2nd in NLA scoring. MAP (now 34) was teammates with Toni Rajala (now 28) who finished 4th in NLA scoring.

    Our babies done grown up. Crap, I’m feeling old right now.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    greenshifter:
    ArmchairGM,

    Seems like acquisition costs and contracts for top 4 Dmen are too steep a price nowadays.

    Draft and develop your own is my thinking there.

    Any good player is going to cost a lot to sign though, why restrict yourself to defensemen in the 1st round? Looking at the 16 best players players drafted in the range of 7-10 over the past decade or so, I’d say targeting forwards is more appropriate:

    F
    Jeff Skinner: $72M ($9M x 8)
    Mark Scheifele: $49M ($6.125M x 8)
    Sean Couturier: $26M ($4.33 x 6)
    Bo Horvat: $33M ($5.5M x 6)
    William Nylander: $45M ($7M x 6)
    Nikolaj Ehlers: $42M ($6M x 7)
    Timo Meier: RFA, estimated $35M ($5.8M x 6)
    Mikko Rantanen: RFA, estimated $80M ($10M x 8)

    D
    Dougie Hamilton: $34.5M ($5.75M x 6)
    Jonas Brodin: $25M ($4.167M x 6)
    Matt Dumba: $30M ($6M x 5)
    Jacob Trouba: RFA, estimated $36M ($7.2M x 5)
    Darnell Nurse: $6.4M ($3.2M x 2)
    Rasmus Ristolainen: $32.4M ($5.4M x 6)
    Ivan Provorov: RFA, estimated $39.6M ($6.6M x 6)
    Zach Werenski: RFA, estimated $48M ($6.85M x 7)

    F: $382M over 6.875 years on average = $6.95M
    D: $251.9M over 5.375 years on average = $5.85M

    So the top 8 forwards are getting over $1M more and 1.5 years more on their contracts on average. Notwithstanding several of the forwards are widely considered to be on incredible value deals, they are still getting larger contracts than their defensemen peers. If Scheifele and Couturier were up for new contracts this summer they’d easily get $70 – 80M deals, you can’t say that about any of the defensemen.

    Even if Darnell Nurse had signed a long term contract last summer instead of a bridge, that deal would probably have been in the $6M x 8 year range, no? Based on this the D group would be as follows:

    D: $293.5M over 6.125 years on average = $6.0M

    Still well below the forward group and no screaming team-friendly deals in sight.

    ________________________________________

    TL;DR

    I see your Myers conjecture and raise you Jeff Skinner.

  187. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is simply fantastic info on the depth chart – thank you so much.

    Send him to Sweden all day every day. I dunno “why” this works but it does and the list of Swedish NHL d-men that have gone this route is substantial. Not to say the Woodguy way isn’t valid (Alex Edler) but I think the overwhelming majority have stayed home in their draft plus 1 year and more.

  188. Pouzar says:

    Yeti: I like that kind of bet! Hope he joins.

    Seems Holland is throwing whatever he can against the wall to see what sticks to try and re-build the bottom six with some speed and tenacity.

    EDIT: I love these bets as well.

  189. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) · Twitter

    Would have to think Brett Connolly makes a lot of sense for the Oilers. Lots of experience, cup winner, 52 goals last 3 seasons, Western Canadian. Ideal complimentary goal scoring winger for either McDavid or RNH.
    11 mins ago

  190. jp says:

    Professor Q: Learn to read qualifiers.

    There’s no need for that.

    Your comparison is quite a stretch and your qualifier was more than a little vague. “higher skilled version of Kassian with Tom Wilson mixed in” brings your mind directly to dirty play leading to suspensions? It’s possible, but far from obvious.

    Professor Q: Kassian has also scored 30 points before

    Zack Kassian has never scored 30 points. In the NHL. In a single season. Are you taking about junior?

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=106835

    Professor Q:
    jp,

    I never suggested trading Russell, let alone trading Russell for Kadri, so I don’t know why you keep suggesting that I have.

    Apologies for that. Others suggested the trade and you were involved with the following:

    “Kadri isn’t worth nearly that much (Russell + +). Are you trolling right now? It seems like it. He’s a higher-level Kassian mixed with a Tom Wilson, and the Leafs are backed into a corner.
    Also, Russell’s contract does not have negative value. He is an effective and sought-after D-Man who got paid market value. Just because many on here disagreed with him being paid said market value, with term, specifically by Edmonton (when Edmonton was desperately trying to get any D they could), does not negate that fact.”

    My mistake.

  191. jp says:

    Yeti: Our babies done grown up. Crap, I’m feeling old right now.

    Haha, yup. I should probably give up on my dream of being drafted too 🙂

  192. Professor Q says:

    jp,

    My mistake as well (I did add in later that by 30 point player, I was referring to the 29 point season and other high 20s).

    People were suggesting Larsson and a 1st or 2nd or highly skilled prospect for Kadri (or, hey, maybe this was me imagining what they meant by Larsson ++ being fair value). Maybe it was hyperbole but I don’t think it would go down like that. Was this based on the Nurse for Nylander/Marner talks (or whatever that rumour was)?

    The Russell thing got carried away but yes the Leafs don’t trade Kadri for him, and, hey, maybe he doesn’t even waive to go to Toronto anyway. But I do believe that he has value and his contract was signed at a time when Edmonton needed him, and other teams wanted him. People seemed more upset with the term at the time, right? Who else could we even have signed?

    I’m just going to move on though. I’ll leave it at me not wanting to trade for Kadri nor seeing the point. I’m very certain that Holland knows better than I do anyway so I’ll go with what he goes for.

  193. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) · Twitter

    Would have to think Brett Connolly makes a lot of sense for the Oilers. Lots of experience, cup winner, 52 goals last 3 seasons, Western Canadian. Ideal complimentary goal scoring winger for either McDavid or RNH.
    11 mins ago

    And so it goes…

  194. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Was this based on the Nurse for Nylander/Marner talks (or whatever that rumour was)?

    If I know Toronto the talks involved Nurse for Kadri. GTFO with the Nylander/Marner talk! Don’t you know that any player in the Leafs organization is by default worth twice the equivalent loser Oilers player?!

  195. CallighenMan says:

    Jordan: 48.00% – the combined federal and provincial tax rate in Alberta for all direct income over $307,548 dollars annually in 2018.

    There is no state income tax in Florida – only the US Federal Income Tax of 36.3% in 2018.

    So, lets use a salary of 4M as an example.

    Alberta taxes:
    4,000,000 – 307,548 (that’s taxed at lower rates) is 3,692,452 – the amount taxed at the highest rate.

    That leads to a taxed amount of 1,772,376.96 and a take home amount of 1,920,075.04 (plus a larger portion of the 307,548, which I have not calculated)

    Florida Taxes:
    1,340,360.076

    To ensure we’re comparing apples to apples, I’m removing the same amount from the Florida salary, as I am not as familiar with tax rates and brackets in the states, so I’m only going to play this game on the dollars that I know will be comparable.

    4,000,000 – 307,548 that’s taxed at lower rates is 3,692,452 – the amount taxed at the highest rate.
    That leads to a taxed amount of 1,340,360.076 and a take home amount of 2,352,091.924 (plus a larger portion of the 307,548, which I have not calculated)

    So, on that comparable 3.7M, the player would take home about 432,016.884 more in Florida than in Alberta in 2018.

    As anyone with any experience with math will tell you, this works out to an 11.7% premium that the player in Florida will earn compared to the player in Alberta.This could also have been calculated by just subtracting the two tax rates, but I don’t do this kind of math often, so forgot while I was running the calculations.Lol.

    So, the more a player earn, the bigger the “premium” required by Edmonton to equal the dollars offered by the non-state tax teams:Dallas, Vegas, Tampa Bay and Florida.

    Of course, the only of those teams that has money right now is Florida and Dallas.

    Here’s a list of the different tax rates in the states:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_income_tax

    Here’s the taxes in Canada
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_taxes_in_Canada

    Basically, there are a few areas that have real advantages to sign FAs, but there are a lot that pay comparable or more taxes than Edmonton.

    These are tangible differences.The intangible differences (waether, culture, family life, crime, etc…) that impact quality of life are certainly considerations, but estimating those in terms of expected salary inflation are much more difficult to quantify.

    Anyone need a thesis topic?

    Why do so many people on this site completely ignore the exchange rate? US dollars are paid to all players. Canadian-based players get a large discount on housing and all living expenses in the home team city during the season and all year if they live in Canada year-round.

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