Free Falling

by Lowetide

I have the Oilers with about $3.5 million in cap room, meaning the team might be able to grab one more free agent in the $2 million range. By the time you get into mid-July, players are willing to sign for less. Can Edmonton find value with the last free-agent?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • New Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A deeper look at Mike Smith’s comments after signing with the Oilers
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • New Lowetide: Oilers add free agent Markus Granlund, creating a crowded depth chart at left wing
  • New Jonathan Willis: Tomas Jurco is a nice little reclamation bet by the Oilers.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How re-signing winger Alex Chiasson impacts the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Oilers add Mike Smith to an uneasy goalie depth chart for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers buy out Andrej Sekera, look to a more dynamic free-agent frenzy.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Alex Chiasson signed with Edmonton on October 2, 2018 for $650,000. He scored 22 goals and turned that season into a two-year deal with an AAV of $2.15 million annually. The Oilers have done this twice recently (Kris Russell) and perhaps it gives them a slight edge with the current free agents. Here’s my list of worthy targets.

1 LW Ryan Dzingel. Cane has him $4.2 times four, I think he’s going to be too expensive for Edmonton. Dzingel has exactly what Edmonton needs (first-shot scorer) and I think they’d be willing to live with the play away from the puck. He’s my target. Posted 2.09 five-on-five per 60 for two teams.

2 LW Michael Ferland. Matt Cane pegged him as a $4 million time four years player, so I assumed he wouldn’t be available to the Oilers. Now? Would $3 million times three get it done? He’s probably going to get more but it’s worth pondering. He delivered 1.80 five-on-five per 60 in 2018-19.

3 LW Marcus Johansson. Cane has him $4.6 million times four, I fade him for Edmonton because of injury worries (Ferland too). Strong playoff run has his value soaring but his regular season was shy of Dzingel and Ferland. He scored 1.32 per 60 five-on-five for two teams last year.

4 LW Patrick Maroon. Cane has him $3.5 million times three, but he scored only 28 points one year ago. He does have chem with McDavid and that might allow Draisaitl to center his own line or team up with Nuge. Posted only 1.08 per 60 at five-on-five last season and is not fast.

5 LW Tomas Vanek. He’s old as the hills and twice as slow, but scored 1.87 per 60 five-on-five last season. I think it’s possible he signs. Cane has him $1.99 million times one.

6 LC Oscar Lindberg. He can play center and scored nine goals a year ago, plus he’s 27 so should have plenty of track left. He scored 1.77 points per 60 at five-on-five and has the look of a productive player. Cane’s projection is $3.4 million times four.

7 LC Brian Boyle. Cane has him $1.2 times one and I think he has a chance to be an Oiler come September. The big issue will be the number of teams who are after him. His five-on-five per 60 was 1.02.

8 LC Derick Brassard. Cane has him $3.955 million times three but he scares the hell out of me. Brassard’s last two seasons (four teams, eroding production) have all the look of a free fall. I don’t like the bet. He posted 0.94 per 60 at five-on-five in 2018-19.

9 L Magnus Paajarvi. Cane estimates his contract at $1.9 million times three but one would guess it’s a one year deal and maybe less than $1 million. He scored 1.00 five-by-five per 60, he can skate and check and PK.

10 LC Riley Sheahan. Cane’s number ($1.3 million times two) is manageable and maybe he’ll sign for less. Five-on-five per 60 (1.05) is shy, but he wins 52 percent of his faceoffs and penalty kills.

11 RW Josh Archibald. Several posters have mentioned him, he’s an interesting depth option. He posted 1.3 per 60 at five-on-five, Cane has him $741,000 times one.

12 LW Kerby Rychel. In his NHL career, Rychel has 14 five-on-five points in 413 minutes (2.03 per 60). He also does other things. Cane’s estimate is $737,000 times one.

CURRENT 50-MAN (49)

The Oilers have two slides, so are at 47 at this time. As I mentioned in my article for The Athletic yesterday, a shoe will have to drop if Ken Holland is serious about making the playoffs (or pushing for the postseason) as he’s stated. Who is vulnerable? I’ll suggest a defenseman and leave it at that.

Young forwards who are in very good position to impact the NHL roster currently include Benson, Marody and Yamamoto, really anyone with skill. Nygard isn’t well known to us, but I’m doing the RE’s now and he is one of the more promising goal scorers beyond 97, 29, 93 and 39.

Which brings me to Sam Gagner. I run him as 4R in my lineups because it’s a great spot for him. If Zack Kassian or Alex Chiasson struggle, he can move up, and if Samwise is up against the soft parade you have to like him. Here’s the thing. My first run of RE for Gagner has him at 15 goals next season, partly because he’s going to get some power-play time. My measure (which is the Bill James measure plus some power-play tweaking and adjusting for age) probably gets him to 20 goals if I place him on a more substantial line.

So, our question for the day is this: Does Sam Gagner’s offensive ability trump his defensive liabilities? I think the answer is no, but Dave Tippett played him at center for a high percentage of the time and he had success. The time on ice for centers against elites that season was Antoine Vermette (36.7); Martin Hanzal (36.5); Kyle Chipchura (33.6) and Gagner (28.9) and Sam was slightly in the black in DFF%RC. Source: Puck IQ.

I don’t think Gagner is going to play center. I do wonder where Tippett will slot him though. Thoughts?

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Yeti

Ben: Your Edmonton Oilers: excreting value since 2006.

That’s why they call us the excretorium.

Bulging Twine

Of Arizona’s top 12 even strength goal scorers at FW, they have let 5 of them go.

Bulging Twine

Arizona signed Nick Schmaltz to a 7 year, 40.95 million dollar contract after scoring 1 even strength goal for them

Bulging Twine

On the same day that Milan Lucic is paid his signing bonus, July 17, it’s Loui Eriksson’s birthday

OriginalPouzar

Munny: You have an expert that is offering to help with your suffering, and you’re going to go close-ended, rather than exploring the option? Why not ask why, if it’s a concern?

Gerta is one of the classiest posters on this LT’s blog, despite the fact he lives in BC.

I’m not about to start asking permission from my IT department to download now browsers, etc. – get past privacy settings, etc. – Sorry, not an valid option.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Not meaning to single you out OP, but it seems to be a common refrain that Chiasson was pretty good in minutes with Draisaitl but that he was a major drag on McDavid.

I dunno, it’s not quite so clear to me.

With McDavid at 5on5:
Chiasson scored 1.47P/60 (1.25 overall)
McDavid scored 2.96P/60 with Chiasson (2.82 overall)

GF% together was 50%
McDavid without Chiasson 48.54GF%
Chiasson without McDavid 48.57%

The underlying metrics weren’t good at all, but McDavid was under water in most of the overall. The negative effect of Chiasson was not severe.

And Draisaitl with Chiasson:
Draisaitl scored 1.37P/60 (2.57 overall)
Chiasson scored 1.16 (1.25 overall)

GF% together was 56.4%.
But all the underlying metrics were quite poor.

Seems like an incredibly mediocre wash in both cases to me.

Maybe the Chiasson heater was more Rieder than anything else (the 5 on 5 heater was when he played with Drai and Rieder – it was when McLellan inexplicably broke them up and put Chiasson with McDavid in the name of “he’s earned more minutes” without realizing that performance away from McDavid is the ultimate key to team success – that things went to shit).

I am also partially relying on eye test – Chiasson and McDavid simply had zero chemistry – they just didn’t work together – I remember their first 5 or 6 games together, the team scored like one goal with McDavid on the ice at 5 on 5 – not acceptable.

Gerta Rauss

Munny: Oh woah… I don’t have the same problems, read it wrong, Thought you were wondering who is using the same browser–and not having problems–because it would increase the odds it was local to OP’s box.

Totally sorry, man.

10-4

So we’re back to just OP having problems-so far nobody else has raised their hand stating they are having the same problems with the reply function

There was one poster a few days ago that mentioned he was having problems, but OP clearly stated those were not the same symptoms

I’ve found the WordPress support forums but once you wade in there, you can find that several hours of your life just slips away, and I’m not going to go there if the end user isn’t interested in helping himself

Munny

Gerta Rauss: Thank you-I’ll see if the google-tron turns up anything

Oh woah… I don’t have the same problems, read it wrong, Thought you were wondering who is using the same browser–and not having problems–because it would increase the odds it was local to OP’s box.

Totally sorry, man.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: No, I have not tried another browser and I don’t plan on downloading another on the lap top – I’m using Chrome.

You have an expert that is offering to help with your suffering, and you’re going to go close-ended, rather than exploring the option? Why not ask why, if it’s a concern?

Gerta is one of the classiest posters on LT’s blog, despite the fact he lives in BC.

Gerta Rauss

Munny: Laptop/7/IE and Chrome

Thank you-I’ll see if the google-tron turns up anything

And your symptoms are the same as OP…intermittent, started around the same time(about a week ago)..?

Munny

Gerta Rauss:
In my 20 years as an IT professional I’ve found that doing nothing and hoping the problem resolves itself generally doesn’t provide satisfactory results

A show of hands amongst the group: how many other posters are having the same type of problems replying to comments..?

If you reply yes, please provide platform details ie:
-type of hardware Laptop/desktop/smartphone
-type of OS Windows 10/Android/iPhone
-type of browser Edge/IE/Chrome/Firefox/other

cheers

Laptop/7/IE and Chrome

jp

OriginalPouzar: Chiasson in the top 6 causes problems as he has to play with Drai and simply cannot play with McDavid.

Not meaning to single you out OP, but it seems to be a common refrain that Chiasson was pretty good in minutes with Draisaitl but that he was a major drag on McDavid.

I dunno, it’s not quite so clear to me.

With McDavid at 5on5:
Chiasson scored 1.47P/60 (1.25 overall)
McDavid scored 2.96P/60 with Chiasson (2.82 overall)

GF% together was 50%
McDavid without Chiasson 48.54GF%
Chiasson without McDavid 48.57%

The underlying metrics weren’t good at all, but McDavid was under water in most of the overall. The negative effect of Chiasson was not severe.

And Draisaitl with Chiasson:
Draisaitl scored 1.37P/60 (2.57 overall)
Chiasson scored 1.16 (1.25 overall)

GF% together was 56.4%.
But all the underlying metrics were quite poor.

Seems like an incredibly mediocre wash in both cases to me.

JimmyV1965

Ryan: You’re really splitting hairs here.

The Oilers bought out Sekera freeing up $3m in cap space which they promptly used $2.15 to sign Chiasson the following day.

Effectively, the used 72% of Sekera’s cap savings on Chiasson.

If they didn’t sign Chiasson or buyout Sekera, they’d be in virtually the same cap situation they are in now with Granlund etc.

As for Smith, they needed a backup goalie, but have plenty of options to play in the bottom six.

I don’t like the Chiasson signing at all. It’s not debilitating, but it’s not good value and the money could have been used much more effectively. However, it’s unfair to say $2.15 mill of the Sekera signing was used on Chiasson. Virtually anyone would have been paid $1 mill or at least the league min.

rickithebear

Ryan:

Taking shots on opposite side of goalie half way into the HD area yields goal density greater than 35%.
Imagine what it is on PP.

Map his PP shots from last year relative to open HD shot chart.

It is only then you can question wether that shooting % is repeatable.

Or we know he finished 42nd in PPG
When you look at players who had 65 min TOI.
Establishes a population close to 1:00+ PPTOI players.

Chaisson was tied for 41st in forward shootng %
If he targets in the HD area the same way next year.
It is not unexpected to be top 45 in G and Fwd shot density again.

Numbers without context are as brutal as the bull pie number WAR in any other sport than non human to human contact sport like baseball.

Baseball can get away with it cause of the % of game that is binary pitcher to plate action.
And
structure of the teams and diamond creates points of binary measure.
Over the fence. Foul, caught ball,
strike, ball, Balk, Pass ball,
safe at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, home.
Error, no error
It is the only sport that war makes sense.

rickithebear

leadfarmer:
rickithebear,

My god man.
That is the worst 2nd line in the entire league
For all this talk about non binary analytics and complex models your models are just Even strength goals for forwards, sprinkled in with pp goals for, and goals against for D.
In all your complex word hurricanes that you drop on here you don’t even consider how much Gagner gives up going the other way.
Chaisson lower level 3rd liner pp option
Gagner replacement nhler.Pp 2 option
Kassian bottom 6 player that I got my wish last year that he got to play with Mcdavid

Even or PP

Goals from shooting is more pocession efficient than being the first or 2 nd passer.
That is why measure of a player is by
Goal efficiency
Then Primary pt efficiency
The 2ndary point efficiency.

Most on here like to look at pt/60.
Terrible measure beyond first line forwards.
Bottom 8 is about evg/60
And if they are top PPG forward you can steal cap space.

First off Chaisson was #42 8 ppg for forwards making (31 + 11)/31 = 1.35 ppg fwd in the game.
When there are 93 -.124 #1 pp unit feds.
That is #1 PP unit performance by Chaisson.
Which makes you calling him 2nd line bull pie when it comes to PP.

EVG win games we want as many of 8-11 evg forward cause the goals/M cap makes them very cheap for goals.

Chaisson averaged 10.33 evg last 3 years. (31evg)
That is 62nd among LW and 60th among RW.
His 13 evg last year was 46th among RW
With Bailey, Donskoi, Panik.

Kassian averaged 9.33 evg last 3 years. (28 evg)
His 14 last year was 40th among RW.
With K. Hayes, R. Smith, J. Williams, Frolik, Buchnevich.
You should check the cap hit on this group.

Gagner does not play Center very often any more.
You cannot call all three a line.
Once again when questioning my comments
You present a bull pie arguement.
But as many times a day on this blog.
It has to be intentional lies.

Chaisson-xxx-Kassian is a great 2 Nd line winger pair.
You are brutally bad at off pair identification.
So your opinion is so frustratingly inaccurate.

1. All forward can do to prevent GA is pressure transition passing in the NZ.
2. Collapse to the perimeter of HD area like Pittsburgh did on PK & at even during there 2 cup win runs.
3. take pocession away from opposition.
1 takeaway per game is elite.
4% of the time is considered elite.
Elite 4% versus poor 1%.

The key is forwards can reduce zone entry dramatically.
But that is an affect of system run by coach. NZ trap.

Forwards corsi allowed & attained is dependent on were the ZS is.
Def zone Face Off
Neutral zone Face off
Off zone Face off
Off bench with Pocession
Off bench without pocession.

Intuition or observed ocvurance will tell you that Def platers will get Def Zone starts and come off bench without pocession.

The offensive favoured will start in O zone & with pocession off the bench.
Variance by bench can cause 33-66% variance in corsi.
Zonestart can cause +/-25%
That is easily 33% +25% incorrect.

So GA is dependent on coach and HD performance of D and goalie in a 2-1 or 1-1 structure.

Saying you do not look at a forwards GA.
They can affect Corsi by entry & minimal Closed shot count.

Once again a bull pie arguement!
You do not understand how coaches dramatically affect a player & the games results.

Allways say to myself.

What uneducated bull pie vitriol arguement is lead farmer going to throw today.
Bull pie throwing Flat earth forest farmer.

This is not analytics.
These are results.

Nat stat trick and
Woodguys site are calculators of some ones work.
Nat stat trick is an accurate calculators. Of results.

Wood guy provides information that is the least accurate measure of the goal diff game.
A simple NHL population acquisition test of best GF and GA players.
Came out at 47% correct.
I have not run a 4 yr measure though.
Yet their are simpler measures that let you identify 80% of NHL population.

It is proper situational open HD sh identification that captures 100% of population.

Was talking to one of 2 scouting directors for a WHL team in West conference.
Outside a post office.

Told him their were people who thought making a corsi unscoreable (0% Density) was not important.
We laughed.

jp

Ryan:
Here’s another way of looking at it.

Letestu.

16-17.11 pp goals. 13 pp points. 25.58 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 6 pp points (60 games only.)8.82 s%

Lucic

16-17. 12 pp goals. 25 pp points. 24.49 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 7 pp points. 13.04 s%

Chiasson.

18-19. 8 pp goals. 15 pp points. 23.53 s%

Guess what happens next?

Very nicely illustrated.

Though I still don’t particularly hate the deal.

Scungilli Slushy

Ryan:
Here’s another way of looking at it.

Letestu.

16-17.11 pp goals. 13 pp points. 25.58 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 6 pp points (60 games only.)8.82 s%

Lucic

16-17. 12 pp goals. 25 pp points. 24.49 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 7 pp points. 13.04 s%

Chiasson.

18-19. 8 pp goals. 15 pp points. 23.53 s%

Guess what happens next?

That’s out of line!!!!

The only similarity in the players is that they are old and slow and right shots that got deals after heaters. But AC is taller so there is that.

Reja

Ryan:
Here’s another way of looking at it.

Letestu.

16-17.11 pp goals. 13 pp points. 25.58 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 6 pp points (60 games only.)8.82 s%

Lucic

16-17. 12 pp goals. 25 pp points. 24.49 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 7 pp points. 13.04 s%

Chiasson.

18-19. 8 pp goals. 15 pp points. 23.53 s%

Guess what happens next?

If I had my way 2nd line Anderson Messier Linseman. ( The Rat) 3rd line Graves Murphy Gelinas. How many goals do you predict for Chase?

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

My god man.
That is the worst 2nd line in the entire league
For all this talk about non binary analytics and complex models your models are just Even strength goals for forwards, sprinkled in with pp goals for, and goals against for D.
In all your complex word hurricanes that you drop on here you don’t even consider how much Gagner gives up going the other way.
Chaisson lower level 3rd liner pp option
Gagner replacement nhler. Pp 2 option
Kassian bottom 6 player that I got my wish last year that he got to play with Mcdavid

rickithebear

Gerta Rauss:
OriginalPouzar,

When I suggested you try another browser, I didn’t mean it permanently

If you install Firefox/Safari/whatever, and you post for 24 hours, and your problems go away, the trouble then would appear to be with your current installation of Chrome

This is standard troubelshooting-cause and effect

You can then chase the problem with your current installation of Chrome, but I would suggest you simply uninstall/reinstall Chrome

Beauty Greta.
Multi variable exclusion process to reduce level of failure.
We can do the same with data relative to goals against ( the best way to bevcup competative) & Goals for.
You map a list of actions to final outcomes.
With a series of increases and decreases in probality of outcome in each path.
In itial seoeration with Collection of situation variables for each action.
You are able to identify the repetative high actors in variables & actions.

Such as
Team: higher GF and GA success actors make it easy.
Comp: facing Lower GF & GA actors make it easy.
Zone start: affects Corsi numbers by +ve/-ve 25% to league avg.High % off ZS easy, high % DZ start hard.
HD penetration density. The closer you are the more successful you are by action.
Open & Closed shot density. Excluding
3-2-1 & 3-1-1-1 structure
Forward NZ trap. None High % entry rate, entry rate reduces by % of opp pocession NZ Fwd trap run.

Intuition.
Is cognitive brain function paired with life experience.

Ryan

Here’s another way of looking at it.

Letestu.

16-17. 11 pp goals. 13 pp points. 25.58 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 6 pp points (60 games only.) 8.82 s%

Lucic

16-17. 12 pp goals. 25 pp points. 24.49 s%
17-18. 3 pp goals. 7 pp points. 13.04 s%

Chiasson.

18-19. 8 pp goals. 15 pp points. 23.53 s%

Guess what happens next?

Side

rickithebear:
LT:
Chaisson, Kassian, Gagner shown to be top 2nd line winger in evg driving it themselves.
Chaisson, & Kassian have shown to be 1st line evg wingers with 1st & 2 Nd line centres.
Chaisson has shown to be a top 45 PPG forward and top 1st unit Ppg/60 forward with PP#1 play.

Knock knock!
Who is their?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals scored at 1st/2nd line rates by forwards who are paid like #8 to #12 fwds is elite Gming.

Knock Knock!
Who is there?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals against when Klefbom & Nurse ( rovers) are on the ice costs the oilers offence playoffs.

Noticed I put there and their.
It was an intentional variance in dialect.
Good test to see if you could understand that they meant the same thing!
In a easily clear context structure.

Ricki can you tell me why you bash Klefbom and Nurse so much, but think by adding Fayne, Davidson and Nikitin that suddenly, those 5 become a cup core for multiple years?

Gerta Rauss

I guess if we’re splitting hairs you could argue that the Sekera buyout is the only reason we have any cap space at all right now

Foege Foegele Torpe

rickithebear:
LT:
Chaisson, Kassian, Gagner shown to be top 2nd line winger in evg driving it themselves.
Chaisson, & Kassian have shown to be 1st line evg wingers with 1st & 2 Nd line centres.
Chaisson has shown to be a top 45 PPG forward and top 1st unit Ppg/60 forward with PP#1 play.

Knock knock!
Who is their?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals scored at 1st/2nd line rates by forwards who are paid like #8 to #12 fwds is elite Gming.

Knock Knock!
Who is there?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals against when Klefbom & Nurse ( rovers) are on the ice costs the oilers offence playoffs.

Noticed I put there and their.
It was an intentional variance in dialect.
Good test to see if you could understand that they meant the same thing!
In a easily clear context structure.

knock knock!
Who’s there?
Data
Data who?
Data is what you provide to prove your hypothesis,
Data is only for me,
So none for you.

Haha, I’m only kidding Ricki, you’re a quality contributor and
I’m glad you seem to be feeling better because you’re full of vinegar.
The way it should be

OriginalPouzar

I don’t agree that it can be earmarked for any particular player.

They bought out Sekera to give them flexibility to do what they wanted to do – get a goalie, add some bottom six and middle six players. They have under $4M of cap space now and still have work to do – stated priority of finding a 3C and leaving some wiggle room for the season to deal with injuries/call-ups, etc.

Sekera was bought out to help implement the summer plan – flexibility was (and is) needed in general.

They didn’t know exactly what July 1 (or the rest of the summer) would bring and they only had the one opportunity to buy out the player.

I don’t agree with the buyout, I’ve been clear on that, but I also don’t agree that the money from the buyout was used on any particular player.

MrEd

Doesn’t it seem like the way the roster is being built out that we should be preparing ourselves for Tippet to go with McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH down the middle?

Everywhere is look Nygard is a LW… which with JJ playing where he’s most comfortable (I think) sure makes for a glut on that side.

On RW we’re super weak… and so Sam could have his old spot with RNH? The most economical way for Holland to fill out this roster would for JP to stick around to trade him for another JP.

All in will be Lucic playing up the line-up until the deadline.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: This is a false equivalency – they did not buy out Sekera to sign Chiasson – they bought out Sekera to give themselves some flexibility in general come July 1 and the rest of the summer. It gave them the ability to offer Connolly $3.5M X 3. Its given them the ability to look at taking advantage of a team like Vegas and maybe scooping Eakin or being in the Gusev sweepstakes. Why was the buyout for Chiasson and not for Smith or for Hass and Gralund?

You’re really splitting hairs here.

The Oilers bought out Sekera freeing up $3m in cap space which they promptly used $2.15 to sign Chiasson the following day.

Effectively, the used 72% of Sekera’s cap savings on Chiasson.

If they didn’t sign Chiasson or buyout Sekera, they’d be in virtually the same cap situation they are in now with Granlund etc.

As for Smith, they needed a backup goalie, but have plenty of options to play in the bottom six.

rickithebear

LT:
Chaisson, Kassian, Gagner shown to be top 2nd line winger in evg driving it themselves.
Chaisson, & Kassian have shown to be 1st line evg wingers with 1st & 2 Nd line centres.
Chaisson has shown to be a top 45 PPG forward and top 1st unit Ppg/60 forward with PP#1 play.

Knock knock!
Who is their?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals scored at 1st/2nd line rates by forwards who are paid like #8 to #12 fwds is elite Gming.

Knock Knock!
Who is there?
Goals.
Goals who?
Goals against when Klefbom & Nurse ( rovers) are on the ice costs the oilers offence playoffs.

Noticed I put there and their.
It was an intentional variance in dialect.
Good test to see if you could understand that they meant the same thing!
In a easily clear context structure.

Glovjuice

Bag of Pucks:
LT included, I know there’s a few Bowie fans on the board.

I just read Ashes to Ashes by Chris O’Leary and there’s a couple curios of note for Oiler fans.

At the behest of others, typically his record labels, there were numerous attempts to spur Bowie to recapture the more radio friendly direction of his commercial heyday. Consciously, but more often subsciously, Bowie sabotaged all such efforts, essentially becoming a very famous fringe artist from the 90s onward. The wasted time and money of these efforts is reminiscent of the Oilers turning a litany of 1OVs into little in the way of Ws.

Unlike the OEG however, Bowie loathed celebrating nostalgic victories and was almost exclusively future focused and forward thinking. No OBC here.

Secondly, Waiting for the Man is often cited as the song that most influenced Bowie. Pretty much sounds like where we are with Holland at the moment. At least the OBC is largely dead and we’re done putting out fires with gasoline.

Yup, big fan of Bowie I am. A visionary on par with Beethoven, Stravinsky, Wagner, Johnson, Shankar, Miles, Paul, Lou and few others. Sather had vision. Nothing since. Katz has vision but hires bumbling fools so lacks the impartation of execution. Lowe envisioned a balanced team and actually delivered to a fair degree for one year. After that; epic failure and complete lack of vision by all.

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar,

When I suggested you try another browser, I didn’t mean it permanently

If you install Firefox/Safari/whatever, and you post for 24 hours, and your problems go away, the trouble then would appear to be with your current installation of Chrome

This is standard troubleshooting-cause and effect

You can then chase the problem with your current installation of Chrome, but I would suggest you simply uninstall/reinstall Chrome

Ryan

Reja: Do you believe another team would have offeredhim 2×2?

Anything’s possible.

Maroon had a 27 g 42 point campaign followed by 17 g 43 point season.

St Louis gave him 1 x 1.75.

Now Maroon was older and wanted to play in St Louis, but he is also had that other element to his game.

By the boxcars, that’s a pretty good hockey player. Why weren’t teams lining up to pay Maroon? Stat Mcflation. 734 5v5 minutes with McDavid.

The problem that you’re missing is that Chiasson is not a 22 g 36 p hockey player. Not in the sense that you could put him in the bottom six on any team and expect him to produce like that. 8 of his goals and 15 of his 38 points were on the PP

If he were, the contract would be reasonable.

Milan Lucic sort of had a Chiasson-like season on steroids in 2016 with 12 power play goals and 13 power play assists hiding his ugly 1.21 5v5/60. We saw what happened next.

So any team with an analytics department would be wary of overpaying a guy who had a hot stick on the power play while producing an ugly 1,25 5v5/60 despite playing mostly with Draisatl.

In other words, take Chiasson off the power play, cool his stick down to his career shooting %, take him out of the top six and what do you have?

I see an overpaid fourth liner.

We already have one in Zack Kassian who couldn’t produce playing in the bottom six.

You can’t play everyone with McDavid or Draisatl and if a player’s been paid over $2 m, they should be able to produce something playing in the bottom six.

anjinsan

It’s truly monstrous the harm Chiarelli did, then and going forward.

Scungilli Slushy

As someone said, one player more is not going to make this team a team.

It’s going to take all of them playing a team NHL game, and being mature enough to act like professionals.

Stability will lead to those that are selfish and don’t do enough going out.

Be healthy, personally sacrifice for overall success. Like anywhere in life.

The key is will Tippet get them to finally do it?

who

OriginalPouzar: Not really to the point of the post but I did want to add that, at least in my opinion, Lagesson has top 4 potential. This isn’t your Jason Smith type of defensive d-man – he can skate, he can move the puck and he has some offensive skill and instincts – no, he’s not as proficient in those areas as the others but he is solid and then you add the aggressive plus defending and I can see him logging 22 minutes as 2LD for a decade. Of course, he may prove not to make it at the NHL level but I put him in the same tier of prospect as Jones (different type of players, obviously.

Great. That makes 5 potential top 4 lefty dmen. The odds just got better.

Reja

Lowetide: Evolving Wild had him at $3.1 million times three. I do think the lower cap impacted, but Chiasson’s pricetag had some range.

I don’t get the dislike for Chase or his contract. For me he was one of the few feel good stories that occurred last year.

Reja

Ryan:
Ryan,

The other two issues are that the Oilers effectively bought out Sekera to sign Chiasson. Buying out Sekera with two years left on his contract doubles the pain of a buyout.

I’m not sure buying out Sekera to overpay Chiasson makes the team better.

Also, the Oilers could have used Chiasson’s money to acquire a more substantial winger.

I’ll bet dollars for doughnuts they offered Connolly 4×4 and he chose no pressure laid back Florida over if your in a slump for 10 games there running me and my family out of town Edmonton.

OriginalPouzar

YKOil: I forget the exact sequence but, back in the day, when I used to hand code my webpages the Ampersand was generally tied to a sequence of characters that would hardcode a ‘space’ being two words.That was purely on the code side however.

Your browser may be reading code from this site in such a way that it is putting an ampersand sequence where a space would normally be but when it sends that back to the site… the site is not recognizing it as such and won’t make the translation back to a ‘space’, basically a ‘wtf’ from the different programs in play.

Two cents, worth two cents, good luck

Thanks – maybe next time I quote a post that brings up the code, I’ll try removing it and replacing it with a space and see what happens.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan:
Ryan,

The other two issues are that the Oilers effectively bought out Sekera to sign Chiasson. Buying out Sekera with two years left on his contract doubles the pain of a buyout.

I’m not sure buying out Sekera to overpay Chiasson makes the team better.

Also, the Oilers could have used Chiasson’s money to acquire a more substantial winger.

This is a false equivalency – they did not buy out Sekera to sign Chiasson – they bought out Sekera to give themselves some flexibility in general come July 1 and the rest of the summer. It gave them the ability to offer Connolly $3.5M X 3. Its given them the ability to look at taking advantage of a team like Vegas and maybe scooping Eakin or being in the Gusev sweepstakes. Why was the buyout for Chiasson and not for Smith or for Hass and Gralund?

YKOil

Lowetide: Evolving Wild had him at $3.1 million times three. I do think the lower cap impacted, but Chiasson’s pricetag had some range.

Yes. I liked a lower number too but $2.15m was definitely in the range. With that number Holland did get the term right – and that is no small thing after the Chia years.

OriginalPouzar

who: Sounds like Samberg is Winnipegs top d prospect. I suspect he has more trade value than JP right now.The Oilers would then have 4 lefty dmen with top 4 ceilings. Broberg,Samarukov,Jones andSamberg.Good bet that 2 of them reach that ceiling.
We definitely will have a weaker defense next year, but this trade is not about next year. It’s a trade you make for 2 years down the road. And you hope the extra scoring Ehlers provides makes up for some of the kids on defense right now.
People all swoon at Klefboms contract, but having Ehlers locked in for 6 years at 6 million might be just as good.
I know it’s risky, and I’m not sure I’d have the guts to pull the trigger, but I really think it could work. And if JP really has flamed out in Edmonton, then I don’t see another forward like Ehlers in our system.
It’s not really Hollands MO, and I doubt it happens, but that’s how you deal from a position of strength to get a true scoring winger.

Not really to the point of the post but I did want to add that, at least in my opinion, Lagesson has top 4 potential. This isn’t your Jason Smith type of defensive d-man – he can skate, he can move the puck and he has some offensive skill and instincts – no, he’s not as proficient in those areas as the others but he is solid and then you add the aggressive plus defending and I can see him logging 22 minutes as 2LD for a decade. Of course, he may prove not to make it at the NHL level but I put him in the same tier of prospect as Jones (different type of players, obviously.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I’ve always noticed and thought he was dangerous when he played for Ott Dal Cal he just had bad luck or couldn’t figure it out around the net. Maybe he’s our Paddy Maroon for 2 years. From what I remember Chase must of hit 10 posts in the last 35 games.

4 posts and 1 crossbar for the season.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=shottype&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&position=F&playerPlayedFor=team.22&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=missedShotsHitPost

YKOil

OriginalPouzar: In fact, when I put the ampersand, hashtag and the number 32 in to the body of the post it also didn’t work.

Weird.

I forget the exact sequence but, back in the day, when I used to hand code my webpages the Ampersand was generally tied to a sequence of characters that would hardcode a ‘space’ being two words. That was purely on the code side however.

Your browser may be reading code from this site in such a way that it is putting an ampersand sequence where a space would normally be but when it sends that back to the site… the site is not recognizing it as such and won’t make the translation back to a ‘space’, basically a ‘wtf’ from the different programs in play.

Two cents, worth two cents, good luck

Reja

Ryan: That’s either a misinterpretation or misrepresentation.

I have nothing against Chiasson, the hockey player.

His contract, however, that I do not like.

https://theathletic.com/870613/2019/03/15/willis-analyzing-how-much-the-oilers-should-be-willing-to-spend-on-pending-free-agent-alex-chiasson/

“The Oilers should be able to accommodate him. Two years isn’t much of a risk, and given his power play scoring, they could probably safely go as high as a $1.5-million AAV on that term. ”

Do you believe another team would have offered him 2×2?

Ryan

Ryan,

The other two issues are that the Oilers effectively bought out Sekera to sign Chiasson. Buying out Sekera with two years left on his contract doubles the pain of a buyout.

I’m not sure buying out Sekera to overpay Chiasson makes the team better.

Also, the Oilers could have used Chiasson’s money to acquire a more substantial winger.

Ryan

Reja: Why does Chase rub so many people the wrong way. I believe Mr Chase will have a big chip on his shoulder and prove to the league that they were wrong to nearly wash him out of the league.

That’s either a misinterpretation or misrepresentation.

I have nothing against Chiasson, the hockey player.

His contract, however, that I do not like.

https://theathletic.com/870613/2019/03/15/willis-analyzing-how-much-the-oilers-should-be-willing-to-spend-on-pending-free-agent-alex-chiasson/

“The Oilers should be able to accommodate him. Two years isn’t much of a risk, and given his power play scoring, they could probably safely go as high as a $1.5-million AAV on that term. ”

who

ArmchairGM: I’m not familiar with Samberg, but I don’t think we have the defensive depth ( now that Sekera has been bought out) to pull this off. Not to mention that Winnipeg is winning this trade by a large margin.

Sounds like Samberg is Winnipegs top d prospect. I suspect he has more trade value than JP right now. The Oilers would then have 4 lefty dmen with top 4 ceilings. Broberg, Samarukov, Jones and Samberg. Good bet that 2 of them reach that ceiling.
We definitely will have a weaker defense next year, but this trade is not about next year. It’s a trade you make for 2 years down the road. And you hope the extra scoring Ehlers provides makes up for some of the kids on defense right now.
People all swoon at Klefboms contract, but having Ehlers locked in for 6 years at 6 million might be just as good.
I know it’s risky, and I’m not sure I’d have the guts to pull the trigger, but I really think it could work. And if JP really has flamed out in Edmonton, then I don’t see another forward like Ehlers in our system.
It’s not really Hollands MO, and I doubt it happens, but that’s how you deal from a position of strength to get a true scoring winger.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: I think if anything, the chip is gone now that he’s been given a massive raise and term – if anything, he had the chip last year when he was forced to sign his fourth one-year contract in a row, each with decreasing money and this time off a PTO on the eve of the start of the season.

I’ve always noticed and thought he was dangerous when he played for Ott Dal Cal he just had bad luck or couldn’t figure it out around the net. Maybe he’s our Paddy Maroon for 2 years. From what I remember Chase must of hit 10 posts in the last 35 games.