I chuckled yesterday at an online conversation re: Oilers drafting. Idea being the club cannot draft outside the first round. The facts are sadder than that: In the last decade, two of the best picks outside the first round (Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson) didn’t sign with Edmonton and were developed elsewhere. Drafting is important development is key.
However, there are good signs for fans of the Edmonton Oilers. For the first time since the turn of the century, the pipeline appears to be pumping effectively.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- **New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
- New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
- New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
- New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
- Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
Signs
There are good signs in drafting and development for the Edmonton Oilers. A small one? Edmonton signed William Lagesson in the spring of 2017. He had been drafted during the time Craig MacTavish was general manager, but by 2017 the team was being run by Peter Chiarelli with Keith Gretzky and Bob Green as lieutenants. MacT passed on signing Gustafsson, who was chosen during the Tambellini era.
Another positive, and we rarely make this distinction (perhaps I should mention it more often) is that the prospects are in all sectors of development—surely a good sign for continued success.
Edmonton has Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ethan Bear, Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson pushing up from the AHL. The team also boasts new arrivals to pro Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov, Kailer Yamamoto, Kirill Maksimov and Ryan McLeod.
At the amateur level, Philip Broberg, Raphael Lavoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Michael Kesselring and Maxim Denezhkin are percolating. The Oilers have stayed the course through the last four drafts. If you add up the totals from the 2016-2019 drafts, the team has chosen 14 players inside the top 100 overall.
The Oilers are drafting, signing and developing (Woodcroft in Bakersfield delivered a stunning set of results in 2018-19) players who are on an NHL trajectory. Ken Holland has the depth to trade a defenseman right now, that’s how much improvement we’ve seen in the back half of this decade.
RECOGNITION
So. It is a fact the Edmonton Oilers haven’t developed players chosen outside the first round. The last five players to be drafted outside the first round, signed, developed in the system, and then found NHL success are Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson and Jujhar Khaira. The last home run? Jeff Petry in 2006.
So. Since 2014, Edmonton has drafted, signed and is developing William Lagesson, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Tyler Benson, Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov, Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue. Never count your chickens, but the team signed Woodcroft and he has some high end talent coming in this fall. Critics can say the Oilers haven’t developed any top flight players outside the first round since 2006, but that statement should be rendered untrue in the days to come.
TYLER WRIGHT
Edmonton has a new director of amateur scouting in Tyler Wright. His resume isn’t fabulous, although drafting Dylan Larkin was a helluva get in 2014. We’ll see how things progress, but my own opinion is that the scouting department was solid under Chiarelli. I hope Wright retains the current scouts and adds an analytics element. I’m not the guy who can do it, but I know someone.
LEON’S COMMENTS
They were fine. He could have said ‘let’s move on’ but in the moment they were fine. Guys, the die is cast. This movie is over, we’re just waiting for the trade.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE.
At 10 this morning, we have a helluva show for you. TSN1260, at 10:20 Corey Pronman from The Athletic pops in and will answer all of your questions (you can post them in the comments section if you wish). Danny Austin from the Calgary Sun/Herald will help us tee up the Labor Day Classic. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
TheFinn60,
Nice input, but try the new post where all the traffic is!
Hmm, looking at the highlights from this freed do not tell you much. Anyway his goal is a nice one timer and shows he has some sort of ”awerness”, i.e. Hockey IQ.
The 2nd one is his slapbshot on the Power play, too easy to read by the goalie so no surprise it did not go in, despite the effort to ”aim” it to the hard area for the goalie. Once again shows he has some awernes!
Then there is the two on one sequnce where Jesse try to feed the guy to the left and he do that on the ”fly” and it was not a bad feed it all. Also point to some awarnes and hockey IQ.
Forth is his feed to the blue line which is good but he had ”all the time in the world” to do that pass and not under pressure.
The question still remains open and will be open until Jesse get another chance to play NHL on whether he can think the game Quick to play on this side of the Atlantic.
Some highlights
https://youtu.be/-ZUl0_xMa4k
Grenoble is not exactly the best team in Europé so no one will readto much into this game, whether that is about Jesse or any other player in that game. Also early. The positive is the points and the fact Jesse has not had a ton of tpractice time with the team and his line did not look out of place. Lats its a good start for Kärpet and Jesse. Lets hope Jesse and the team can improve from here onwards and both Oil and Jesse can move on with a trade that fits both sides. No way he is back in Edmonton to play, but one the other hand nerver say nerver…
Jesse had a 2 point game, 1+1. Have not been able to watch any of the game though so cant’t really say much more then, two points are two points. Do not think his game has improved, like a 100 times, but maybe he is “mentally” at a better plage and the “big ice” help his game. Might also be that he is healthier now after his hip surgery. Lets what comes down the road, good result for Jesse and good for Edmonton as of now.
Both Skellefteå and Karpat play this morning – at 11am I think.
Suppsoably to be shown on TSN GO and streamed on the Champions Hockey League website.
Jesse is slotted for 1RW on Karpat.
I don’t know where Broberg is playing but in 2 of the 3 exhibition games, he was paired with Berglund and excelled. Hopefully the same continues in some “real games” now.
How exciting!
Calling it a rich deal is rich.
It was less than 60% of projected value, no? It pays him below average for a 3rd liner (#233 among forwards, with players still to sign).
Sure, me still might not cover it but geez.
Disagreed. JP is still very young and even when being jerked around by idiot coaches he still “held his own”. He still has big upside and as such Ken is right to not undervalue him, in my opinion.
LOL, He’s not 70!!! He had some bone spurs or something similar repaired, NOT hips replaced !!!
He excluded JP because he isn’t a prospect anymore, he has played more than 50 NHL games. He does mention JP here:
Organizational Top 10 (23 and Under)
1. Connor McDavid, C (22)
2. Leon Draisaitl, C (23)
3. Philip Broberg, D (18)
4. Evan Bouchard, D (19)
5. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW (21)
6. Dmitri Samorukov, D (20)
7. Tyler Benson, LW (21)
8. Raphael Lavoie, RW (18)
9. Kailer Yamamoto, RW (20)
10. Caleb Jones, D (22)
He also wrote:
“Puljujarvi, who signed in Finland with an NHL out, is one of the most debated players in the league in terms of public discourse and in the scouting community – everyone has a theory as to what he is and how it got to this point. On the one hand, he only turned 21 in May and a lot of good (albeit not top) prospects have barely cracked the league by that age. For that reason, I’m not willing to stamp a bust tag on a guy with his talent. But realistically speaking, he’s likely not going to be an above-average NHL player. You hope with his size, speed and skill you can squeeze a useful regular contributor out of that.”
His PP shooting percentage prior to 18-19 was 11.71%, last year it was more than double that at 23.53%. Expect regression to the meat, although the team clearly isn’t what with a rich, 2-year deal.
Then Ken’s delusional if he thinks that price is fair value and JP can attain it by dominating Z list players.
I don’t know if I’m buying the injury angle. It’s an easy out – all the three, JP, his agent and the Oilers could have pinned a lot of issues on it and saved a lot of face. And the out wasn’t taken by any of them.
Either the Oilers knew and didn’t tell the other two, or Jesse knew and didn’t tell. And the agent poured on gasoline instead of Aloe.
I think the Oilers got Oilered and people can’t believe it.
I fully agree, neither do I.
I didn’t include him in my ‘3 good PP players’, but it’s a fact that he scored well last year.
oops, missed this reply before mine. Sorry! ☺️
I don’t think Holland “upped” any ante. Whatever deal Lehto was able to find (if any), just didn’t meet Ken’s idea of fair value that would help the team. That is what he has been looking for according to his own words.
I fully agree. I thought I’d sufficiently indicated my skepticism.
I think I’d be okay with something like a Gauthier and Fensore trade with Carolina for Puljujarvi right now. Not sure they could get more.
Long may it last. In 16-17, Letestu was 4th in the league in PP G/60 with 3.72, which is miles better than Chiasson’s 2.51 and 39th overall finish. The following year it was down to 1.31. I’m not expecting Chiasson to repeat his career year again, ever.
Benson and Broberg were listed at a higher rank, something like “very good prospect”, if I recall correctly.
Munny,
I think my recent cynicism comes from a bit of some talking out both sides of the mouth (or typing with one finger from both hands?).
We’re a numbers based blog. Our glorious host (may he never get carpal tunnel) has said this many times. We have numbers on Jesse in the NHL against good players. He’s not that good. We then choose to ignore this because we’ve fallen in love with the idea of Jesse’s potential.
I just think it’s pretty arrogant to pick and choose when we give these numbers weight in supporting our arguments. The data is the data and it doesn’t care if you like it or not.
I also think it’s the height of arrogance to assume we’re the only place that knows and values these numbers.
Still, taking the new bike downhilling today, and it’s glorious.
Have a good one everyone.
Ah, that’s where I was getting it from (old age in action, here). Thanks jp, munny!
He is probably excluding Pulujarvi because he is not signed.
Ah, that’s where I was getting it from (old age in action, here). Thanks jp, munny!
Jesse has been on the shelf due to having both of his hips replaced. If Jesse performs well in the league and his hips aren’t bothering him, that should help increase his value in that fact alone. No magic required.
ok, thanks. So 4 or 5 more years. JP is not being very smart about this…
Agreed. It’s a big problem.
He shot 17.9%.
He’s a career 12.7% shooter.
Like any Canucks season, eh?
Good on the PP. Goals and goal rates were both top 50 in the league.
Chiasson scored at a 4th line pace last year, despite playing significant minutes in the top-6. That’s not good.
rickithebear,
I said 5 good players because the Oilers only have 3 very good ones by my count.
You’re right that Chiasson was good last year. Hopefully he can keep it up though I have some doubt given his lack of success/opportunity before last season.
And Nurse-Larsson, I’m hopeful they can do what they did in 17-18.
Good point!
Why 5 fwds.
Other than for injury!
Ovechkin gets 4:25/ GP
You would expect to 40 players to get as much PPTOI as possible.
We already know Drai, Mcd, RNH, Chiasson we’re top 42 ppg scorers.
PPGF/60 rank; PPTOI/GP rank.
Chiasson #21 Fwd 9.72 PPGF/60; #86 fwd 2:37
Draisaitl #25 fwd 9.62; #30 fwd 3:20
Mcdavid #31 fwd 9.43; #21 fwd 3:25
RNH #37 fwd 9:25; #38 fwd 3:14
These players not getting 4:00+ per gm is inexcusable.
And Chaisson 2:37 and top 42 ppg scorer.
Could you imagine 4:00+ he ends up being #12 12 ppg – #10 13 ppg fwd.
I have said in the past it is 3 times easier to generate ppg than evg.
This year 7.21/2.64= 2.73 times easier.
So give as much PPTOI to your top 4 producing fwds.
Why would you want other options.
Taking PPTOI to give to inferior producing players so coaches can feel they have some important input is a fools game.
Remember what D. Sutter said to me.
We are turning them into fucking Robots.
What he was feeling is he was getting less input.
Amen to that.
When it comes to unit and structure effectiveness.
That is why Draisaitl getting
Top 45 per position LW/RW 1000 Ev min (68.3%) as primary winger with Mcdavid
And
Draisaitl for 490 ev min (49.5%) as primary 3C is smart usage.
Playfair saying Nurse – Larsson
Nurse and Larsson scares me.
But if nurse is restricted in his walk about.
Nurse – Larsson
17-18 840:13 1.86 evga/60
Dramatically +ve Goal diff relative to season median.
In screen when HD area is visible Mr. Nurse.
Of course its possible. Its also possible to trade players after the deadline, but it never seems to happen.
The only way I see JP traded is in late November if he gets off to a hot start and there’s an NHL team with aspirations that gets off to a slow start and / or sustains a significant injury to a key forward. At this point I think teams are mainly looking to TC and pre-season now, with only their RFA re-signings on the radar. GM’s will continue to poke around for deals, but I don’t see anybody paying Ken’s price until they can have their scouts watch JP in action.
Agree 100% with this.
What are you on about? Only Nurse is on his off-side. I thought the pairings were interesting – the 2 best defensemen on the 1st pairing, a workable 2nd pairing (at least on paper) and a veteran 3rd pair.
Why “before July 2020”? I understand that his $1M bonus gets paid in July, meaning he’ll be MUCH easier to move after that has vested as he has just $1.5M in salary for the final year.
I can’t find any statistic that suggests he’s below average. But you know, sometimes what’s written doesn’t reflect reality.
Why would we sign him to a $3 million dollar contract that isn’t multiple years ($3 million being the total)? Hollandaise are here. ChiaPet is gone.
The Oilers were shockingly healthy last year… they seem “due” this season. :/
Thanks for correcting me. I don’t know much about Riley and I read a article last week that wrote that his below average PK skills were one of the reasons no one has signed him.
Thx, was wondering how the hell McLeod could be legit but Benson not.
Jethro Tull,
JP’s performance to mid-November will have less bearing on the situation than the needs of NHL teams will, particularly injury or age cliffs or other roster issues.
There apparently has been legitimate interest in Pujo already, by multiple teams, if we can trust the reports. So there is some competition for acquiring the asset. The traditional game of chicken Is underway. Obviously early season might generate some factors which increase the competition, ie the needs of other GMs.
The price that gets paid will depend on that competition, and on Holland’s willingness to bend his ask depending on what the market has been showing him.
If the bids fall well short of what he wants, there’s no reason why Holland can’t sit it out till next summer and see what the market says then, or see if the mercurial 21 yo changes his mind. Because at that low present bid, the risk of waiting is decreased.
But you know all this. I don’t recall Olive Oil ever being this cynical towards this blogosphere…
:-p
Hopefully.
What do you mean? He’s 23rd in the league in PK GA/60 over the past 3 years. He was 11th this past year. His underlying numbers aren’t quite that good, but above average by almost every measure. Sold?
You never know if a team runs into a rash of injuries early on I think Jesse comes into play for the price Holland is asking.
Good on the dot not great on the PK. I’m still hoping for a true shutdown 3rd line that can Pk.
All the guys you list were ranked higher, I just included the ones in the same tier as Gaultier (Broberg was #1 for the Oilers “High-end NHL prospect”, Samorukov #3 and Benson #4 “Very good NHL prospects”). Jones to Maksimov were #7-11 for the Oilers, Gaultier #6 for the Canes.
Yes, that could well be the return.
Because Toronto is the bully on the block you piss them off and you might find yourself selling vacuums door to door in Goose Bay.
So we’re agreed:
If JP tears it up in a substandard league against substandard player (comparative to even 4th line NHL players), his value magically increases to the point where a GM must simply have him or die, instead of waiting until the Oilers have to sit him for an entire year. Which no doubt will improve his already lofty opinion of the organization.
If anyone wanted him that much, he’d be gone by now. Wasn’t he and his agent given permission to find their own trade? Which Ken nixed by raising the ante. And JP double nixed by shooting mouth off.
JP reminds me of a Brazilian beach soccer player. All the individual skills, but couldn’t play a structured game if their life depended on it.
This isn’t exactly true IMO. If Holland’s ask gets,bid, he should take it. There’s some risk to the Oilers in Jesse playing in Finland: poor performance, injury, preferring Europe…
Hazel Mae.
If JP goes to Europe and puts up thoroughly mediocre numbers then it’s getting closer to the Nichushkin situation. He hasn’t done that yet. If JP puts up meh numbers in Europe and then we sign him to a $3 mill deal I will not be happy. Right now there is no comparison with N.