Blue Rush

I’ve been scoping out the 2019-20 season and possibilities for the Oilers roster since July 12 (article on Tyler Benson is here). One thing that struck me early in the process, even before the buyout of Andrej Sekera: The Oilers badly need some answers about the young blue bubbling under.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • **New Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • **New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NOTES

I think the 2019-20 season will see 10 ‘major players’ on defense during the season. The big three (Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse) will all play well over 20 minutes a night and will have huge impact on the success or failure of the team.

I have a second tier of three defensemen in 2019-20 who will all play between 15 and 19 minutes a night: Kris Russell, Matt Benning and newcomer Joel Persson. I have Persson getting significant power-play time and posting enough offense to be the No. 3 scorer among the blue. I have faded the GP total for both Russell and Persson because there are trade deadline possibilities.

I have a (final) third tier of youngsters, and that includes Caleb Jones, Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear and William Lagesson. Some of these men represent the future and others represent trade pieces and the organization has to figure everything out over the next 12 months or so. Jones has the edge in games, the other three are about equal. It’s going to be a fun follow in 2019-20.

FIRST LINE AND BEYOND

I woke up to a conversation on the blog this morning about Alex Chiasson and whether or not he’s a legit No. 2 right winger. I use five-on-five points-per-60 as a gauge and 492 minutes as a line in the sand. If we use NaturalStatTrick, we get exactly 372 players (31 times 12) and have an actual pool of qualifying forwards. First line forwards include all players in the top 93 (31 times 3) and on it goes. Here are the Oilers from last season:

First Line: Connor McDavid 2.82 (No. 7 overall)

First Line: Leon Draisaitl 2.57 (No. 22 overall)

Second Line: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.75 (No. 159 overall)

Second Line: Drake Caggiula 1.68 (No. 172 overall) (TRADED)

Third Line: Jujhar Khaira 1.38 (No. 247 overall)

Third Line: Zack Kassian 1.32 (No. 261 overall)

Third Line: Alex Chiasson 1.25 (No. 277 overall)

Fourth Line: Ty Rattie 1.16 (No. 299 overall)

Fourth Line: Ryan Strome 1.12 (No. 308 overall) (TRADED)

Fourth Line: James Neal 0.99 (No. 337 overall (ACQUIRED)

Fourth Line: Milan Lucic 0.97 (No. 340 overall)

Fourth Line: Jesse Puljujarvi 0.80 (No. 361 overall)

Fourth Line: Colby Cave 0.75 (No. 362 overall)

Fourth Line: Tobias Rieder 0.75 (No. 362 overall)

Fourth Line: Kyle Brodziak 0.70 (No. 370 overall)

So, Chiasson can play on the No. 2 line but it isn’t efficient. Drake Caggiula would be a far better candidate. It’s the same as Kassian on the top line. Milan Lucic in 2016-17 posted 1.21 per 60, despite getting 50 points. Why? 25 points came on the power play. Lucic scored 1.46 points-per-60 with McDavid that season.

Chiasson had a similar experience to Lucic 2016-17 this past campaign. He was 1.25 per 60 overall, but scored only 13 of 22 goals at even strength. Chiasson scored 1.48 per 60 with McDavid.

Chiasson’s last three seasons at five-on-five per 60: 1.28, 1.27 and 1.25. He is telling us who he has, and the big spike a year ago came on the power play.

No one hates Alex Chiasson, or Zack Kassian, but they are inefficient players on high skill lines.

I hope he fills the net, and then does it again. Impossible to cheer against this young man, and coming off injury it will be good for him to test everything in an actual game.

BODY LANGUAGE, AND YOU

Here’s my advice: When you encounter an article that delves into body language or verbal thrust, be like Dionne Warwick and walk on by. You’re a fan of sports, not interpretation of the physical movements of athletes during scrums. Just because it’s about a person of interest doesn’t make an article worthwhile.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the long weekend with great guests and general confusion. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will stop in to talk about the enormous changes in broadcast media this week. Hernan Salas from TSN1260 will tee up the Labor Day Classic with depth chart analysis and keys to the game. Sean Fitzgerald from The Athletic will also pop by to talk about this article and how players ready themselves for training camp and the long season ahead. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!!

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135 Responses to "Blue Rush"

  1. Profit says:

    ” Just because it’s about a person of interest doesn’t make an article worthwhile.”

    That is a great point. I think these Eastern-based writers like to write articles about the Oilers that are full of ridiculousness because Oilers fans will gobble them up and give them the clicks/visibility they want. If we all just ignore them, maybe they’ll go away.

  2. DBO says:

    I feel we are greatly underestimating Marody. Top player in the AHL (yes better then Benson), Right shot (needed on this team), can play centre or wing and has enough size to compete. I wonder if our 3rd line centre spot is his to lose, and the Oil will address it towards end of camp if he can’t make it work.

    Painfully this is a SHOW ME year for the team. A lot of 1 year players or players on expiring deals. Kids playing their way into the everyday lineup, and 2 goalies trying to see where they stand. No pressure on Holland to win now so he will be patient. It may drive people crazy, but he is going to see what he has. And next year we could conceptually see 2 huge buyouts = Neal and Koskinen. If they are terrible, I expect he will cut bait and walk away, freeing up a ton of cap space and allowing the team the money to sign a bigger free agent and make serious moves.

    I will still love to watch this year, but my expectations are best case scenario in the running for last payoff spot. Nothing more. Happy to be proven wrong!

  3. stevebergeron97 says:

    Broberg and Skelleftea playing at 10 mountain time this morning. Apparently they live stream on the Champions Hockey League website. Not sure of the quality of streams.

  4. Lowetide says:

    DBO:
    I feel we are greatly underestimating Marody. Top player in the AHL (yes better then Benson), Right shot (needed on this team), can play centre or wing and has enough size to compete. I wonder if our 3rd line centre spot is his to lose, and the Oil will address it towards end of camp if he can’t make it work.

    Painfully this is a SHOW ME year for the team. A lot of 1 year players or players on expiring deals. Kids playing their way into the everyday lineup, and 2 goalies trying to see where they stand. No pressure on Holland to win now so he will be patient. It may drive people crazy, but he is going to see what he has. And next year we could conceptually see 2 huge buyouts = Neal and Koskinen. If they are terrible, I expect he will cut bait and walk away, freeing up a ton of cap space and allowing the team the money to sign a bigger free agent and make serious moves.

    I will still love to watch this year, but my expectations are best case scenario in the running for last payoff spot. Nothing more. Happy to be proven wrong!

    I have Marody as an early recall and also have him posting the most points among rookies. I think people are fairly strong on Marody at this point. Benson too, of course.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    One week until the first rookie game – so close, can’t wait!

    Do we think Joel Persson will be at rookie camp? I wonder if he’s “too old”? Presumably they would want to get him as much time on the smaller ice as possible.

  6. 106 and 106 says:

    The 2019-20 Oilers are the best 20th place team there is.

    With development and the one year bets and ability for Ken to address weakness with strength 2020-21 is where the money is.

    Good development year ahead fans!

  7. Professor Q says:

    Uh oh. Lowetide is calling me out…

    I had to share those articles at the time. Yes, I was frustrated. I’m young so I will learn your ways.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    “I have Persson getting significant power-play time and posting enough offense to be the No. 3 scorer among the blue. I have faded the GP total for both Russell and Persson because there are trade deadline possibilities.”

    —————————————————————

    Listening to Gully on the Gregor show – it was almost as if Persson wasn’t in the “rookie try-out tier” with Lagesson, Jones and Bear but is essentially on the team. Gully said the Persson will get his at bats on the PP. He did acknowledge the likelihood of an adjustment period.

    This isn’t really all that “shocking”, I think most of us assume he’ll be on the team. I really really hope he can handle the 5 on 5 play as I think he’ll be huge as a block/cover for Bouchard as a PP guy and puck moving guy on the right side.

    Go Joel!

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    “I hope he fills the net, and then does it again. Impossible to cheer against this young man, and coming off injury it will be good for him to test everything in an actual game.”

    Agreed! Go Jesse!

    “Here’s my advice: When you encounter an article that delves into body language or verbal thrust, be like Dionne Warwick and walk on by. You’re a fan of sports, not interpretation of the physical movements of athletes during scrums. Just because it’s about a person of interest doesn’t make an article worthwhile.”

    Haha, nice!

  10. blackadder says:

    Man, Caggiula’s numbers make an already awful trade look even worse.

    The Oilers need to have at least two of Neal, Benson, Yamamoto, Marody and Nygard show that they are second line players or offensively this year is going to be another disaster.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Both Skellefteå and Karpat play this morning – at 11am I think.

    Suppsoably to be shown on TSN GO and streamed on the Champions Hockey League website.

    Jesse is slotted for 1RW on Karpat.

    I don’t know where Broberg is playing but in 2 of the 3 exhibition games, he was paired with Berglund and excelled. Hopefully the same continues in some “real games” now.

    How exciting!

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    Drake Cagguila scores at a rate of 20 points per season for the last 3 season NHL season.
    Alex Chaisson scores at a rate of 27 points per season for the last 3 NHL seasons.

    Drake Cagguila plays an average of about 60 NHL games per season over the last 3 seasons
    Alex Chaisson plays an average of about 71 NHL games per season over the last 3 seasons

    Drake Cagguila a combined minus 15 over the last 3 seasons
    Alex Chaisson a combined minus 6 over the last 3 seasons

    Neither player is a legit top 6 player. But health / games played should be factored in when deciding which of the two is a better option in this lineup.

    Cagguila is on a better contract. But as far as overall results go. I’d take Chaisson for this coming year.

    Come On Benson and Lavoie and Cap Relief ! Hurry Hard !

  13. Darth Tu says:

    “When you encounter an article that delves into body language or verbal thrust, be like Dionne Warwick and walk on by.”

    If the article deals in verbal thrust per 60, with and without McDavid I’ll find it hard to ignore.

  14. Psyche says:

    stevebergeron97,

    Thank you for sharing! A nice way to spend a holiday Friday – watching hockey in between yard chores.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is this SHL/Liiga pre-season? I know some euro leagues start pretty early

  16. Wilde says:

    Speaking of points per hour production, I posted these on Twitter this morning because I think they’re the most stunning illustration of how much more there was to the offensive droughts under McLellan/Hitchcock than just personnel-

    [obviously everyone knows this isn’t me excusing the horrific rosters that were presented to us]

    player – primary points per hour 5v5 in 2018-19 regular season

    EDM:

    McDavid – 2.29
    Draisaitl – 1.96
    Gagner – 1.35
    Currie – 1.32
    Chiasson – 1.19
    Nugent-Hopkins – 1.18
    Caggiula – 1.16
    Khaira – 1.10
    Kassian – 1.09
    Rattie – 1.05
    Lucic – 0.84
    Spooner – 0.81

    MTL:

    Shaw – 2.23
    Domi – 2.22
    Tatar – 2.11
    Gallagher – 1.88
    Byron – 1.67
    Drouin – 1.63
    Kotkaniemi – 1.45
    Lehkonen – 1.44
    Danault – 1.43
    Peca – 1.19
    Weal – 1.12
    Armia – 1.05

    Put another way, this is what a top-ten ranking of both rosters combined would have from each team:

    EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL.

    I’m kind of sad that they picked up only penalty killers and checkers to fill out the roster, seeing as there’ll be plenty of time to run test drives this year, but to be honest things will be more interesting with returning players if Tippett gets them to try to score actual hockey goals.

  17. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Wilde,

    Yeah but like Wilde they didn’t have cap space to make any moves this offseason. 😉

    That list is pretty bleak. RNH once again falling in the super underwhelming scorer column. Silver lining: Lucic and Spooner are gone.

  18. geowal says:

    texmex:
    Rookie Roster has been released

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-announce-details-for-2019-rookie-camp/c-308781124

    Strikes me as a conservative roster – not too many invites for guys who have 2 AHL seasons.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi scores less than 3 minutes in for Karpat……

  20. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Puljujarvi scores less than 3 minutes in for Karpat……

    Excellent.

    Let the rebirth begin!

    Now to convince him that trying YEG again next year is a good idea…..

  21. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    One week until the first rookie game – so close, can’t wait!

    Do we think Joel Persson will be at rookie camp?I wonder if he’s “too old”? Presumably they would want to get him as much time on the smaller ice as possible.

    Holy crap! Exciting to get stuff started!

    On Persson, wasn’t Gambardella at rookie camp last year at a similar age and with 1 pro season under his belt? Maybe I’m misremembering.

    Anyway, Persson playing would help get his acclimatization to the bigger ice started ASAP.

  22. jtblack says:

    Anyway to get Chiasson’s number PRE X MAS. POST X MAS …

  23. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Puljujarvi scores less than 3 minutes in for Karpat……

    Just like his first NHL game…

  24. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I wish the media that wouldn’t let Leon off the hook demanding answers regarding Puljujarvi were as demanding of all the idiotic detritus that Oilers management has fed the fans during the last thirteen years.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nope, no Persson at rookie camp. Looks like none of the “veteran” d-men will be there (Lagesson, Jones, Bear, Persson) but the forwards will (Benson, Marody):

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1167460048764669953

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Holy crap! Exciting to get stuff started!

    On Persson, wasn’t Gambardella at rookie camp last year at a similar age and with 1 pro season under his belt? Maybe I’m misremembering.

    Anyway, Persson playing would help get his acclimatization to the bigger ice started ASAP.

    Ya, Gully did mention they anticipate an “adjustment period” for Persson but, nope, he won’t be at rookie camp.

    Too bad, I’m excited to see him.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg on the first PP until – also on the 5 on 3.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    Drafted Puljujarvi with the hopes of him being an immediate Top 6 power forward along the lines of a Jamie Benn.

    Instead we get to follow along with bust updates from the Finnish league.

    Joy.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Puljujarvi scores less than 3 minutes in for Karpat……

    Holy shit! 2 x 1st rounders and a roster player?

  30. texmex says:

    Jethro Tull: Holy shit! 2 x 1st rounders and a roster player?

    Did you see this one from Matheson?

    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    19h
    If Oilers talking to Tampa re Puljujarvi for young player, most likely they would want C Anthony Cirelli or D man they wanted to draft in Jesse’s draft year Sergachev. Most likely prospect winger: Taylor Raddysh, who had 46 pts in first AHL season. Former jr teammate of McDavid.

    The dude has lost the plot.

  31. Jethro Tull says:

    texmex: Did you see this one from Matheson?

    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    19h
    If Oilers talking to Tampa re Puljujarvi for young player, most likely they would want C Anthony Cirelli or D man they wanted to draft in Jesse’s draft year Sergachev. Most likely prospect winger: Taylor Raddysh, who had 46 pts in first AHL season. Former jr teammate of McDavid.

    The dude has lost the plot.

    Nah. It’s like selling something on Kijiji. We can ask whatever we want.

    It’s like a young soccer player straying from the path and going home to kick the shit out of his Sunday league in the hopes Juve or Barca or Man U will drop 20mill quid on him.

  32. Professor Q says:

    Question about the rookie roster:

    Is it fine that the European, Russian, and NCAA players aren’t heading to the camp and games?

    I know they have a number of years before we have to worry about them, and they already start their seasons, but it would have been nice to get a preview of them with the old crew (plus a couple of invitees it seems).

  33. Professor Q says:

    texmex: Did you see this one from Matheson?

    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    19h
    If Oilers talking to Tampa re Puljujarvi for young player, most likely they would want C Anthony Cirelli or D man they wanted to draft in Jesse’s draft year Sergachev. Most likely prospect winger: Taylor Raddysh, who had 46 pts in first AHL season. Former jr teammate of McDavid.

    The dude has lost the plot.

    McDavid mostly played with Strome and DeBrincat. Raddysh generally played with the latter two but post-McDavid. Caggiula could have played with them all also if he hadn’t gone the NCAA route!

  34. defmn says:

    Just got my tickets to the rookie game in Calgary on the 10th. Its been a few years since I made it to Penticton – McDavid draft was my last one – so really looking forward to this.

  35. geowal says:

    defmn:
    Just got my tickets to the rookie game in Calgary on the 10th. Its been a few years since I made it to Penticton – McDavid draft was my last one – so really looking forward to this.

    For $5?! I might have to swing that too.

  36. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: Nah. It’s like selling something on Kijiji. We can ask whatever we want.

    It’s like a young soccer player straying from the path and going home to kick the shit out of his Sunday league in the hopes Juve or Barca or Man U will drop 20mill quid on him.

    Ah, actually this does sort of remind me of the Adrien Rabiot scenario this season. Wanted more minutes in PSG as he felt he deserved it, wasn’t getting them, up and down between First Team and Reserves, trouble making it to training on time (same with Mbappé, but Mbappé is Mbappé…), so he transferred to Juventus (free transfer, however). I think his Mom was involved? Unsure is she was his agent, though.

  37. Primetime says:

    Professor Q:
    Question about the rookie roster:

    Is it fine that the European, Russian, and NCAA players aren’t heading to the camp and games?

    I know they have a number of years before we have to worry about them, and they already start their seasons, but it would have been nice to get a preview of them with the old crew (plus a couple of invitees it seems).

    Not sure about the Euros/Russians, but I believe that the NCAA players are not allowed to attend anything paid for by a professional team or they lose their eligibility.

  38. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    I don’t know if you caught it, but the sale of the Wanderers was successful this week and they will trot on, for at least another season lol. Sadly, RIP Bury.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi with a primary assist on a late insurance goal.

  40. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Puljujarvi with a primary assist on a late insurance goal.

    How did his overall game look?

  41. jake70 says:

    Grenoble – looks like S. Bisaillon still plays for them. Wonder if he and Jesse had a pregame chat at the red line about the Oil. 😉

  42. jake70 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Drafted Puljujarvi with the hopes of him being an immediate Top 6 power forward along the lines of a Jamie Benn.

    Instead we get to follow along with bust updates from the Finnish league.

    Joy.

    The good news is you can laugh or cry…your choice….lol.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    I feel we are greatly underestimating Marody. Top player in the AHL (yes better then Benson), Right shot (needed on this team), can play centre or wing and has enough size to compete. I wonder if our 3rd line centre spot is his to lose, and the Oil will address it towards end of camp if he can’t make it work.

    I’m not sure that most are under-rating Marody as I think most have him competing for the 3C spot or potentially third line winger.

    Its interesting that in the verbals I’ve heard from Tippett, he mentions Khaira and Haas as potential 3C candidates but hasn’t mentioned Marody. It would be massive for the roster if he is able to handle that spot.

  44. Rusty says:

    Jesse’s game looked quite good, especially for a come back game from hip surgery. Could have had couple of points more. Let’ see how it goes in next CHL game on Sunday.

  45. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It would be massive if anyone not named McDavid, Drai or Hopkins could handle 3C this year.

  46. Melman says:

    I can’t help but wonder if a trade can’t be made somehow around JP and Virtanen. Virtanen has been streaky and has slowly slipped out of favour in Van with the new wave of players and youth coming in. He has raw tools though, and could potentially benefit from a new home. He’s legit 3rd line and with the right C could possible establish himself as a 2RW. Do you worry about trading JP within the division?

  47. Professor Q says:

    Edmonton should sign Jakub Krejčík.

    Then we’d finally have our Krejčík we’ve all been waiting for.

  48. Fraktal says:

    defmn:
    Jesse’s goal.

    https://twitter.com/championshockey/status/1167470742134579210

    I wish that we had Jesse’s Goal…

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    Who does this sound like to you?

    “(This player) was as good in the AHL as you could have hoped for, dominating right away at that level. His skill and offensive IQ are very good, and he consistently made plays versus men. He’s a player who wants the puck on his stick and tries to make things happen. He’s more of a playmaker than a pure goal-scorer, but he scores because he attacks the net and shows no fear of playing in the hard areas. (His) skating has always been a minor issue. There are times I think his feet look heavy and other times I think it’s fine. I don’t think it will ever be a selling point of his game, but with his skill, vision and how well he’s shown versus men, I think he’ll be a great player even with average speed.”

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    Melman:
    I can’t help but wonder if a trade can’t be made somehow around JP and Virtanen.Virtanen has been streaky and has slowly slipped out of favour in Van with the new wave of players and youth coming in.He has raw tools though, and could potentially benefit from a new home. He’s legit 3rd line and with the right C could possible establish himself as a 2RW. Do you worry about trading JP within the division?

    You only worry about trading within the division if you’re losing said trade. I don’t think anybody worried about the Lucic-Neal trade being within the division.

  51. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Who does this sound like to you?

    “(This player) was as good in the AHL as you could have hoped for, dominating right away at that level. His skill and offensive IQ are very good, and he consistently made plays versus men. He’s a player who wants the puck on his stick and tries to make things happen. He’s more of a playmaker than a pure goal-scorer, but he scores because he attacks the net and shows no fear of playing in the hard areas. (His) skating has always been a minor issue. There are times I think his feet look heavy and other times I think it’s fine. I don’t think it will ever be a selling point of his game, but with his skill, vision and how well he’s shown versus men, I think he’ll be a great player even with average speed.”

    I’ll take Lander for $5

  52. Munny says:

    Fraktal: I wish that we had Jesse’s Goal…

    Where can I find a winger like that?

  53. Munny says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It would be massive if anyone not named McDavid, Drai or Hopkins could handle 3C this year.

    There’s some smoke around a Sheahan signing.

  54. JJS says:

    Munny: Where can I find a winger like that?

    Nice

  55. BustedSoulO says:

    Darth Tu: I’ll take Lander for $5

    Benson?

  56. Munny says:

    Dragging this out of the dank dark depths of Woodguy’s twisted Twitter feed in anticipation of LT goin’ goalers next:

    Woodguy‏ @Woodguy55 · Jul 15

    Hitch played Koskinen in 25games from Feb 13-Apr 6. That’s 25 games in 52 days. An insane work load. Stupid, stupid, stupid. He put up a .905 all situations SV% during that stretch.

    __________

    Mike‏ @Mikeoil91 · Jul 15

    What were the 12 game splits? Did he get worse the last 12 games?

    __________

    Blue Bullet Brad‏ @BlueBullet1981

    .925 SV% in 13 games from Feb 13-Mar 11

    .881 SV% in final 12 games to end the season.

  57. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: You only worry about trading within the division if you’re losing said trade. I don’t think anybody worried about the Lucic-Neal trade being within the division.

    I’m old school and so are a lot of GM’s about trading in your division and then conference. Will you say the same thing if Lucic rattles a few collarbones on the Oilers this year. I’m sure Calgary management are worried Neal pops a couple of game winners against them and missing the playoffs because of it.

  58. Reja says:

    Munny:
    Dragging this out of the dank dark depths of Woodguy’s twisted Twitter feed in anticipation of LT goin’ goalers next:

    Woodguy‏ @Woodguy55 · Jul 15

    Hitch played Koskinen in 25games from Feb 13-Apr 6.That’s 25 games in 52 days.An insane work load.Stupid, stupid, stupid.He put up a .905 all situations SV% during that stretch.

    __________

    Mike‏ @Mikeoil91 · Jul 15


    What were the 12 game splits?Did he get worse the last 12 games?

    __________

    Blue Bullet Brad‏ @BlueBullet1981


    .925 SV% in 13 games from Feb 13-Mar 11

    .881 SV% in final 12 games to end the season.

    Kosh and Smith with Tippett running the show will quiet down the Debbie Downers to a peep by Christmas.

  59. oilersfan says:

    Munny,

    Where?

    I hope so!!

  60. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Speaking of points per hour production, I posted these on Twitter this morning because I think they’re the most stunning illustration of how much more there was to the offensive droughts under McLellan/Hitchcock than just personnel-

    [obviously everyone knows this isn’t me excusing the horrific rosters that were presented to us]

    player – primary points per hour 5v5 in 2018-19 regular season

    EDM:

    McDavid – 2.29
    Draisaitl – 1.96
    Gagner – 1.35
    Currie – 1.32
    Chiasson – 1.19
    Nugent-Hopkins – 1.18
    Caggiula – 1.16
    Khaira – 1.10
    Kassian – 1.09
    Rattie – 1.05
    Lucic – 0.84
    Spooner – 0.81

    MTL:

    Shaw – 2.23
    Domi – 2.22
    Tatar – 2.11
    Gallagher – 1.88
    Byron – 1.67
    Drouin – 1.63
    Kotkaniemi – 1.45
    Lehkonen – 1.44
    Danault – 1.43
    Peca – 1.19
    Weal – 1.12
    Armia – 1.05

    Put another way, this is what a top-ten ranking of both rosters combined would have from each team:

    EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL.

    I’m kind of sad that they picked up only penalty killers and checkers to fill out the roster, seeing as there’ll be plenty of time to run test drives this year, but to be honest things will be more interesting with returning players if Tippett gets them to try to score actual hockey goals.

    Let’s go back a year and see what this picture looked like by 17-18’s results.

    EDM:

    McDavid – 3.17
    Draisaitl – 2.29
    Gagner – 1.04
    Currie – ?
    Chiasson – 1.27
    Nugent-Hopkins – 1.96
    Caggiula – 1.16
    Khaira – 1.38
    Kassian – 1.29
    Rattie – 2.49
    Lucic – 1.3
    Spooner – 2.5
    (Strome) – 1.46

    MTL:

    Shaw – 1.08 (2.9 in 18-19)
    Domi – 1.68
    Tatar – 0.98
    Gallagher – 1.88 (2.33 in 18-19)
    Byron – 1.51
    Drouin – 1.23
    Kotkaniemi – ??
    Lehkonen – 1.09
    Danault – 1.49
    Peca – 2.53
    Weal – 1.24
    Armia – 1.69

    If I did all of that right, I’d get

    EDM, MTL, EDM, EDM, EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL to start 18-19 (using Strome instead of Spooner).

    If I subtract Peca and Rattie because of their low GP in 17-18, I get:

    EDM, EDM, EDM, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL, MTL, EDM, EDM

  61. Yeti says:

    Rusty: Jesse’s game looked quite good, especially for a come back game from hip surgery. Could have had couple of points more. Let’ see how it goes in next CHL game on Sunday.

    Honest question: are Grenoble effectively ECHL level competition? Or would they just about qualify as AHL level?

  62. Georgexs says:

    “Milan Lucic in 2016-17 posted 1.21 per 60, despite getting 50 points. Why? 25 points came on the power play. Lucic scored 1.46 points-per-60 with McDavid that season.”

    5v5 P60 isn’t a great predictor of future offense. It was in Lucic’s case, but, in general, it’s really not. Of 5v5 P60, All Situations P60, P/GP, and Total Points, the relationship to future performance is weakest for 5v5 P60. The relationship is generally weak for all these metrics but weakest for 5v5 P60.

    You can get a sense of that from some of the swings in the 5v5 P60 numbers in my post on EDM and MTL above.

    “Chiasson had a similar experience to Lucic 2016-17 this past campaign. He was 1.25 per 60 overall, but scored only 13 of 22 goals at even strength. Chiasson scored 1.48 per 60 with McDavid.”

    13 EV goals was actually a pretty good total last season. I think it puts him in the top half of forwards by your criteria, so, on that alone, a not unreasonable candidate for the second line.

    “Chiasson’s last three seasons at five-on-five per 60: 1.28, 1.27 and 1.25. He is telling us who he has, and the big spike a year ago came on the power play.”

    You’re using the same line of reasoning as you used for Lucic here. Once again, you get better predictions on a forward’s future offensive performance (overall and at 5v5) by taking into account his offensive contribution in all the minutes that he plays, not just his 5v5 minutes. If you get in the habit of discarding or discounting a forward’s PP points, you just end up making worse guesses at how the forward will perform in the future. It is surprisingly hard to guess who a forward IS; take the MTL results from above or VGK a couple of years back. You improve the accuracy of your guesses by taking into account all available information.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    blackadder:

    The Oilers need to have at least two of Neal, Benson, Yamamoto, Marody and Nygard show that they are second line players or offensively this year is going to be another disaster.

    I optimistic Neal will score 2nd line goals in the 15-25 range.

    I’m cautiously optimistic the Benson is a legit 2LW, or will be by the end of the year.

    The Swedish league is good league and Nygard led it in 5 on 5 goal – with that said, top 6 producer is BIG stretch until we see more.

    I don’t want to hear Yamamoto’s name as a thought to be an Oiler until 2020.

    With respect to your premise, none of those guys were top 6 producers on the team last and they weren’t a disaster offensively.

    They were a disaster defensively (GA) last season.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:

    Come On Benson and Lavoie and Cap Relief ! Hurry Hard !

    Don’t sleep on Krill………….

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is this SHL/Liiga pre-season? I know some euro leagues start pretty early

    Nope – Champions League – these games are meaningful.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ:
    Question about the rookie roster:

    Is it fine that the European, Russian, and NCAA players aren’t heading to the camp and games?

    I know they have a number of years before we have to worry about them, and they already start their seasons, but it would have been nice to get a preview of them with the old crew (plus a couple of invitees it seems).

    Well, the college kids can’t participate as they would lose their college eligibility and, for the Europeans, not only have their games started and its far but the players are also under contract to those teams – wouldn’t think the owners would be amenable to that risk, nor should they.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: How did his overall game look?

    Don’t know, I had that Skelefftea game on in the background at the office, not the Karpat game.

    He finished with apx 15 minutes of ice and 6 shots on net (although I think I saw that Karpat had 70 shots on the CHL site – not sure how legit that was/is.

  68. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t know, I had that Skelefftea game on in the background at the office, not the Karpat game.

    He finished with apx 15 minutes of ice and 6 shots on net (although I think I saw that Karpat had 70 shots on the CHL site – not sure how legit that was/is.

    Do you know how much Jesse signed for or a ballpark figure?

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs:
    “Milan Lucic in 2016-17 posted 1.21 per 60, despite getting 50 points. Why? 25 points came on the power play. Lucic scored 1.46 points-per-60 with McDavid that season.”

    5v5 P60 isn’t a great predictor of future offense. It was in Lucic’s case, but, in general, it’s really not. Of 5v5 P60, All Situations P60, P/GP, and Total Points, the relationship to future performance is weakest for 5v5 P60. The relationship is generally weak for all these metrics but weakest for 5v5 P60.

    You can get a sense of that from some of the swings in the 5v5 P60 numbers in my post on EDM and MTL above.

    “Chiasson had a similar experience to Lucic 2016-17 this past campaign. He was 1.25 per 60 overall, but scored only 13 of 22 goals at even strength. Chiasson scored 1.48 per 60 with McDavid.”

    13 EV goals was actually a pretty good total last season. I think it puts him in the top half of forwards by your criteria, so, on that alone, a not unreasonable candidate for the second line.

    “Chiasson’s last three seasons at five-on-five per 60: 1.28, 1.27 and 1.25. He is telling us who he has, and the big spike a year ago came on the power play.”

    You’re using the same line of reasoning as you used for Lucic here. Once again, you get better predictions on a forward’s future offensive performance (overall and at 5v5) by taking into account his offensive contribution in all the minutes that he plays, not just his 5v5 minutes. If you get in the habit of discarding or discounting a forward’s PP points, you just end up making worse guesses at how the forward will perform in the future. It is surprisingly hard to guess who a forward IS take the MTL results from above or VGK a couple of years back. You improve the accuracy of your guesses by taking into account all available information.

    Wouldn’t one need to back out the SH minutes – not for Chiasson/Lucic, etc. but for Nuge, Drai, Khaira, Kass, etc.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Do you know how much Jesse signed for or a ballpark figure?

    $200K

  71. Professor Q says:

    Does anyone know anything about these Anton Burdasov rumours?

  72. gimme shelter says:

    Jesse got a goal and an assist this game. I hope he gets lots more goals and assists to up his trade value. I am one of those who believe he should be traded. The current consensus is an established player and a draft pick. I would accept a one for one trade for a top 6 winger.

  73. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t know, I had that Skelefftea game on in the background at the office, not the Karpat game.

    He finished with apx 15 minutes of ice and 6 shots on net (although I think I saw that Karpat had 70 shots on the CHL site – not sure how legit that was/is.

    Thanks. Obviously you are going to have to install more TV’s in your office for this coming season. 😉

  74. defmn says:

    Professor Q:
    Does anyone know anything about these Anton Burdasov rumours?

    Just what Eronko is reporting. Edmonton and 2 other teams have expressed interest. Seems late in the season for this kind of rumour but Eronko does have connections.

  75. flyfish1168 says:

    gimme shelter:
    Jesse got a goal and an assist this game. I hope he gets lots more goals and assists to up his trade value. I am one of those who believe he should be traded. The current consensus is an established player and a draft pick. I would accept a one for one trade for a top 6 winger.

    nikolaj ehlers, Might be tough to make the numbers work

  76. Munny says:

    A reiteration of what we’ve heard from other sources…

    NHL NETWORK:

    Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the Edmonton Oilers won’t trade Jesse Puljujarvi unless they get a deal that makes them happy. He claims their asking price for the unhappy winger is a player and a pick.

    Friedman believes they’ve had lots of conversations with the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Carolina Hurricanes. He thinks the Hurricanes are willing to offer up one of their prospects like Julien Gauthier but not a draft pick. As for the Lightning, Friedman believes the Oilers know what Tampa Bay prospects they might be able to get.

    There’s been little interest in Puljujarvi from Canadian teams. Friedman believes he prefers playing somewhere a little quieter in the United States.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its good to have Friedman back – I posted a link to the video of that in yesterday’s thread – it sounds even more legit when you see him say it with his beard…

  78. hunter1909 says:

    Important Announcement from Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™:

    September 1st until puck drop for the opening game October 2, the book opens for another scintillating season of Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™ hockey!

    Which one of the current all time top players will prove themselves worthy of the all time Death March™ race to…to…

    Or will another, unsung hero emerge to show everyone the way?

    Such excitement should the team be once more facing no playoffs by mid November!

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Munny,

    Do not trade him. JP has no leverage. It’s only a matter of time that he and his agent will get dissatisfied with a 200k a year (minus whatever taxes are) contract and will realize that he’s got to come back and earn a trade

  80. defmn says:

    Reja: Do you know how much Jesse signed for or a ballpark figure?

    Jim Matheson
    ‏ @NHLbyMatty
    Aug 21

    Finnish League sources say Puljujarvi would likely get about 200,000 Euros ($221,000 US, $294,000 Cdn) to play in his hometown of Oulu. That’s long way from $1 mil US here.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Munny,

    Do not trade him.JP has no leverage.It’s only a matter of time that he and his agent will get dissatisfied with a 200k a year (minus whatever taxes are) contract and will realize that he’s got to come back and earn a trade

    Yup, I put the chances we see him in an Oiler uniform this year at about 1% but closer to 35% for next season.

  82. Ryan says:

    Georgexs:

    5v5 P60 isn’t a great predictor of future offense. It was in Lucic’s case, but, in general, it’s really not. Of 5v5 P60, All Situations P60, P/GP, and Total Points, the relationship to future performance is weakest for 5v5 P60. The relationship is generally weak for all these metrics but weakest for 5v5 P60.

    Shot fired. Haha ala Staples.

    I suspect your analysis relies on running correlation coefficients without accounting for confounding variables.

    I’m a believer. Producing at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game. Players get zoomed by teammates all over the place, but it’s still the hardest aspect of the game.

    5v5 offense is also the most susceptible to aging curves from my reading.

    Did you adjust your analysis for player age?

    I’ve seen analysis that suggest that PP offense doesn’t decline much per age, but EV goals really drop with age.

  83. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, I put the chances we see him in an Oiler uniform this year at about 1% but closer to 35% for next season.

    Jesse traded this year 49% traded next offseason 48% return this year 0.5% return next year with Oilers 2.5%

  84. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey

    https://theathletic.com/1174562/2019/08/30/estimating-reasonable-expectations-for-the-2019-20-edmonton-oilers-a-difficult-journey/

  85. jp says:

    Georgexs: 5v5 P60 isn’t a great predictor of future offense. It was in Lucic’s case, but, in general, it’s really not. Of 5v5 P60, All Situations P60, P/GP, and Total Points, the relationship to future performance is weakest for 5v5 P60. The relationship is generally weak for all these metrics but weakest for 5v5 P60.

    Which/what is the best single predictor you’re aware of?

    Any chance you could post the correlations?

  86. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Once again, you get better predictions on a forward’s future offensive performance (overall and at 5v5) by taking into account his offensive contribution in all the minutes that he plays, not just his 5v5 minutes. If you get in the habit of discarding or discounting a forward’s PP points, you just end up making worse guesses at how the forward will perform in the future. It is surprisingly hard to guess who a forward IS; take the MTL results from above or VGK a couple of years back. You improve the accuracy of your guesses by taking into account all available information.

    It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value. Chiasson’s 13 even strength goals are outstanding, best of his career. Even with that, he isn’t really a top six forward. That’s my opinion. We’ll see.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey

    https://theathletic.com/1174562/2019/08/30/estimating-reasonable-expectations-for-the-2019-20-edmonton-oilers-a-difficult-journey/

    Going to be a great read and series, as always. With so much flux on, not only who makes the roster, but where they play (up and down), its got to be a very tough year for the series.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value. Chiasson’s 13 even strength goals are outstanding, best of his career. Even with that, he isn’t really a top six forward. That’s my opinion. We’ll see.

    Lucic in year 1 of his current contract is the perfect example of decent overall protection that had a minute chance of being repeated.

  89. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic in year 1 of his current contract is the perfect example of decent overall protection that had a minute chance of being repeated.

    It was also counter to his entire career. Lucic did most of his work at even strength before his first year in Edmonton, and then divided the offense 25/25 points. Crazy.

  90. Ryan says:

    jp: Which/what is the best single predictor you’re aware of?

    Any chance you could post the correlations?

    Iirc, he likes points per game. Could be wrong.?!?

    I’m a disciple and firm believer in Lowetide’s “toughest discipline” producing offense at 5v5.

  91. Wilde says:

    Georgexs,

    Wilde: illustration of how much more there was to the offensive droughts under McLellan/Hitchcock than just personnel

    Wilde: more

    Wilde: than

    Wilde: personnel

    What point do you think I was making?

  92. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value. Chiasson’s 13 even strength goals are outstanding, best of his career. Even with that, he isn’t really a top six forward. That’s my opinion. We’ll see.

    I 1000% agree with this opinion.

    Also, If there’s a better bet than Chaser to regress the meat, I’d love to hear it.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: It was also counter to his entire career. Lucic did most of his work at even strength before his first year in Edmonton, and then divided the offense 25/25 points. Crazy.

    That’s what I was getting at when i said it wasn’t repeatable. Lucic had never been a PP producer. All of his metrics, traditional and advanced, more than double previous career highs on the PP. It was a clear one-off PP heater that masked the cliff he had fallen off at evens – to fourth line rates.

  94. jp says:

    Ryan: Iirc, he likes points per game. Could be wrong.?!?

    I’m a disciple and firm believer in Lowetide’s “toughest discipline” producing offense at 5v5.

    He’s been using that so I guess you’re right. I’m curious what the gaps (and predictive powers) are.

    I agree with it in theory too, but if there’s something that works better I’ll listen.

  95. Georgexs says:

    Wilde:
    Georgexs,

    What point do you think I was making?

    “… horrific rosters…”

    This one.

  96. Georgexs says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wouldn’t one need to back out the SH minutes – not for Chiasson/Lucic, etc. but for Nuge, Drai, Khaira, Kass, etc.

    Maybe it matters. Haven’t checked. Some scorers kill penalties. I think GF60 is less than half on PK compared to 5v5. But the minutes per game are a small fraction as well. Coaches tell you things about players by how they dole out minutes. They’re not always right but they do give information. That’s why I include all minutes.

  97. Ryan says:

    Georgexs: Maybe it matters. Haven’t checked. Some scorers kill penalties. I think GF60 is less than half on PK compared to 5v5. But the minutes per game are a small fraction as well. Coaches tell you things about players by how they dole out minutes. They’re not always right but they do give information. That’s why I include all minutes.

    This I agree with in principle and it’s particularly useful for dmen, Dmen are difficult to otherwise evaluate by stats. If there’s one stat better for dmen than Toi/g, I’d like to hear it,

    OP and I debated a Justin Faulk in the past. His position at the time was that Faulk was a sieve, but the Toi/g with a stacked dcorps suggested he had value.

    Even Tim Barnes acknowledged the coaches intelligence in deploying Toi.

  98. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: “… horrific rosters…”

    This one.

    That’s still not contradictory. If it was, and I was saying Montreal’s roster was good, that wouldn’t be internally coherent because the point would be lost by condemning the lesser output of a team with lesser inputs!

    Should I be giving you less credit than I do?

  99. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: Shot fired. Haha ala Staples.

    I suspect your analysis relies on running correlation coefficients without accounting for confounding variables.

    I’m a believer. Producing at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game. Players get zoomed by teammates all over the place, but it’s still the hardest aspect of the game.

    5v5 offense is also the most susceptible to aging curves from my reading.

    Did you adjust your analysis for player age?

    I’ve seen analysis that suggest that PP offense doesn’t decline much per age, but EV goals really drop with age.

    I don’t know what your first two statements mean so I’ll skip those.

    Sure, producing offense at 5v5 is difficult. But knowing what the player did this season tells you very little about how they’ll do next season. That’s the point. It’s hard to tell who a player IS by his 5v5 offense. You can’t bank on him being that player next season. You get closer to the bank by going with other numbers. Still not that close to the bank but closer.

    I’ll put up some stuff on aging at some point.

  100. Ryan says:

    Georgexs: I don’t know what your first two statements mean so I’ll skip those.

    Sure, producing offense at 5v5 is difficult. But knowing what the player did this season tells you very little about how they’ll do next season. That’s the point. It’s hard to tell who a player IS by his 5v5 offense. You can’t bank on him being that player next season. You get closer to the bank by going with other numbers. Still not that close to the bank but closer.

    I’ll put up some stuff on aging at some point.

    The fist two statements were a reference to David Staples of the cult of Hockey’s proclivity to writing articles entitled “Shots Fired!” In reference to dissenting opinions such as https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/shots-fired-oilers-insider-says-not-a-chance-that-connor-mcdavid-is-pushing-to-get-out-of-edmonton

    As for 5v5 offense, if you can control for player age and eliminate ‘fluke’ years, I suspect the predictive value would be very strong.

  101. Jaxon says:

    I would like to point out that Samorukov and Bouchard were born only 4 months apart. They are the same height and weight. Samorukov is a better skater. Samorukov is a more physical player. Samorukov led his team to the semi-finals of the Memorial Cup. He was +36 during the regular season and +18 in the playoffs. In his last 36 regular-season games since November 25th, he had 10G, 29A, 39pts and was +36. His surge from November 25th to December 15th probably gave Guelph the confidence to trade Merkley. Averaging +1 per game is pretty awesome. It’s not quite at Bouchard’s offensive production but it is elite. And Samorukov’s defensive game is elite.

    Bouchard’s defensive game, physical game, and skating are not at Samorukov’s level. Seeing that they’re only 4 months apart, other than their draft pedigree why do we have Bouchard challenging for a roster spot and Samorukov starting in the AHL. Samorukov has been stuck behind some quality blueliners and jumped up and stole top spot this season.

    Bouchard has a longer history of offensive production but if we’re going based on merit of current play and projectible skills, I think Samorukov has the edge.

    Samorukov’s 1.08 pts/gp in his last 36 games puts him 4th in the OHL for under 20 D. Bouchard had 1.18 pts/gp, Bode Wilde and Ryan Merkley both had 1.13pts/gp, and Adam Boqvist had 1.11 pts/gp, so Samorukov isn’t far off the pace and he followed the regular season up by scoring 1.17 pts/gp in the playoffs. Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp. Samorukov had 67 pts in his last 60 games including playoffs.

    I’m not saying Samorukov should be making the team or even challenging for a roster spot, I’m just saying that neither should Bouchard if that’s the case. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Samorukov and Bouchard are both forcing the issue in the new year. Jones has speed and some offensive production but he didn’t show it as early as Samorukov and Jones doesn’t have the physical element that Samorukov brings. Lagesson brings physicality and a defensive game but he hasn’t shown much for offensive chops at any level. Bear might easilt get pushed out of the equation if Bouchard develops quickly and Pearsson or Benning show well at 2RD.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs: Maybe it matters. Haven’t checked. Some scorers kill penalties. I think GF60 is less than half on PK compared to 5v5. But the minutes per game are a small fraction as well. Coaches tell you things about players by how they dole out minutes. They’re not always right but they do give information. That’s why I include all minutes.

    My point was that, given there is really zero expectation of producing offence on the PK and scoring isn’t a primary or even secondary goal, those that PK will have their numbers artificially reduced, even if its just a few minutes per game. Someone like Archibald, even more so than Drai, given lower overall minutes so PK being a higher percentage, will have his numbers skewed when comparing to a guy like Chiasson.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Lagesson brings physicality and a defensive game but he hasn’t shown much for offensive chops at any level.

    Lagesson led the Condors D in even strength points.

  104. jp says:

    defmn: Just what Eronko is reporting. Edmonton and 2 other teams have expressed interest. Seems late in the season for this kind of rumour but Eronko does have connections.

    Yeah that would be very odd timing for a European signing.

    I’m not sure he has a KHL deal for this season though – he’s not listed as on a team for this season on Elite Prospects nor on the Salavat Yulaev Ufa roster (where he played last season). Maybe he’s a UFA looking for a deal?

    FWIW his teammates last year (all on the same team!) included:
    Linus Omark
    Teemu Hartikainen
    Vladimir Tkachev
    Philip Larsen
    Alexei Semenov

  105. defmn says:

    Jaxon:
    I would like to point out that Samorukov and Bouchard were born only 4 months apart. They are the same height and weight. Samorukov is a better skater. Samorukov is a more physical player. Samorukov led his team to the semi-finals of the Memorial Cup. He was +36 during the regular season and +18 in the playoffs. In his last 36 regular-season games since November 25th, he had 10G, 29A, 39pts and was +36. His surge from November 25th to December 15th probably gave Guelph the confidence to trade Merkley. Averaging +1 per game is pretty awesome. It’s not quite at Bouchard’s offensive production but it is elite. And Samorukov’s defensive game is elite.

    Bouchard’s defensive game, physical game, and skating are not at Samorukov’s level. Seeing that they’re only 4 months apart, other than their draft pedigree why do we have Bouchard challenging for a roster spot and Samorukov starting in the AHL. Samorukov has been stuck behind some quality blueliners and jumped up and stole top spot this season.

    Bouchard has a longer history of offensive production but if we’re going based on merit of current play and projectible skills, I think Samorukov has the edge.

    Samorukov’s 1.08 pts/gp in his last 36 games puts him 4th in the OHL for under 20 D. Bouchard had 1.18 pts/gp, Bode Wilde and Ryan Merkley both had 1.13pts/gp, and Adam Boqvist had 1.11 pts/gp, so Samorukov isn’t far off the pace and he followed the regular season up by scoring 1.17 pts/gp in the playoffs. Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp. Samorukov had 67 pts in his last 60 games including playoffs.

    I’m not saying Samorukov should be making the team or even challenging for a roster spot, I’m just saying that neither should Bouchard if that’s the case. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Samorukov and Bouchard are both forcing the issue in the new year. Jones has speed and some offensive production but he didn’t show it as early as Samorukov and Jones doesn’t have the physical element that Samorukov brings. Lagesson brings physicality and a defensive game but he hasn’t shown much for offensive chops at any level. Bear might easilt get pushed out of the equation if Bouchard develops quickly and Pearsson or Benning show well at 2RD.

    Totally agree with all of this. Samorukov sounds to have a full range of skills. Those guys don’t come along that often and can materially change the way a team looks when they are on the ice.

    He is the guy I am most looking forward to watching at the rookie game on the 10th.

  106. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value. Chiasson’s 13 even strength goals are outstanding, best of his career. Even with that, he isn’t really a top six forward. That’s my opinion. We’ll see.

    Yeah, Chiasson’s career numbers aren’t consistent with consistent top 6 forward. But this isn’t about Chiasson. It’s about: “It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value.” I’m pointing out that math (which I know you also value) doesn’t line up with this particular experience.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs: Yeah, Chiasson’s career numbers aren’t consistent with consistent top 6 forward. But this isn’t about Chiasson. It’s about: “It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value.” I’m pointing out that math (which I know you also value) doesn’t line up with this particular experience.

    I’m always willing to learn, although it’s by sundial. Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?

  108. Georgexs says:

    jp: Which/what is the best single predictor you’re aware of?

    Any chance you could post the correlations?

    Sure. Maybe this weekend.

  109. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: I’m always willing to learn, although it’s by sundial. Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?

    Awesome! That’s a very good question. Please give some time to respond.

  110. Ryan says:

    Georgexs: Yeah, Chiasson’s career numbers aren’t consistent with consistent top 6 forward. But this isn’t about Chiasson. It’s about: “It has been my experience that five-on-five scoring has the most value.” I’m pointing out that math (which I know you also value) doesn’t line up with this particular experience.

    My point is that if you look at year-over-year production to predict offensive production in the subsequent season without accounting for confounding variables such as player aging, you’ll likely see a stronger correlation for p/g than points/60 5v5 in part perhaps due to larger sample size, but as well due to the issue that 5v4 offense doesn’t decline with age.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    I would like to point out that Samorukov and Bouchard were born only 4 months apart. They are the same height and weight. Samorukov is a better skater. Samorukov is a more physical player. Samorukov led his team to the semi-finals of the Memorial Cup. He was +36 during the regular season and +18 in the playoffs. In his last 36 regular-season games since November 25th, he had 10G, 29A, 39pts and was +36. His surge from November 25th to December 15th probably gave Guelph the confidence to trade Merkley. Averaging +1 per game is pretty awesome. It’s not quite at Bouchard’s offensive production but it is elite. And Samorukov’s defensive game is elite.

    Bouchard’s defensive game, physical game, and skating are not at Samorukov’s level. Seeing that they’re only 4 months apart, other than their draft pedigree why do we have Bouchard challenging for a roster spot and Samorukov starting in the AHL. Samorukov has been stuck behind some quality blueliners and jumped up and stole top spot this season.

    Bouchard has a longer history of offensive production but if we’re going based on merit of current play and projectible skills, I think Samorukov has the edge.

    Samorukov’s 1.08 pts/gp in his last 36 games puts him 4th in the OHL for under 20 D. Bouchard had 1.18 pts/gp, Bode Wilde and Ryan Merkley both had 1.13pts/gp, and Adam Boqvist had 1.11 pts/gp, so Samorukov isn’t far off the pace and he followed the regular season up by scoring 1.17 pts/gp in the playoffs. Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp. Samorukov had 67 pts in his last 60 games including playoffs.

    I’m not saying Samorukov should be making the team or even challenging for a roster spot, I’m just saying that neither should Bouchard if that’s the case. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Samorukov and Bouchard are both forcing the issue in the new year. Jones has speed and some offensive production but he didn’t show it as early as Samorukov and Jones doesn’t have the physical element that Samorukov brings. Lagesson brings physicality and a defensive game but he hasn’t shown much for offensive chops at any level. Bear might easilt get pushed out of the equation if Bouchard develops quickly and Pearsson or Benning show well at 2RD.

    Nice post. Makes you think. And I largely agree with the premise. Just a couple quibbles.

    Samorukov went on his tear after Merkley left, not before. Merkley was traded for reasons other than his performance on the ice. He was traded because mngt thought his absence would make the overall team better. He wasn’t traded because of anything Samorukov did.

    Although you mentioned Bouchard’s play in the post season, I think it should be highlighted. He had 21 pts in 11 playoff games with the Knights, which is truly staggering, and another 8 pts in 8 games with the Condors in very limited minutes. The day the Oilers sent down Bouchard, I wrote a post on this blog telling people not to expect huge numbers in London because Bouchard had nothing left to prove there.

  112. Georgexs says:

    Wilde: That’s still not contradictory. If it was, and I was saying Montreal’s roster was good, that wouldn’t be internally coherent because the point would be lost by condemning the lesser output of a team with lesser inputs!

    Should I be giving you less credit than I do?

    Well, you could’ve said in your original post, hey, look at how bad MTL’s roster was at the start of the season. Worse than ours. But weird: worse inputs, much better outputs; maybe inputs don’t equal outputs. I would’ve nodded, strong post. But you didn’t say any of that.

    Well that’s nice and not nice all at once. It’s the Internet. Everyone sucks.

  113. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Samorukov went on his tear after Merkley left, not before.

    Before. Samurokov scored 11pts in the 7 games before Merkley was traded from November 25th to December 14th, Merkley was traded December 15th. It seemed like after because many reporters spoke about how he lit it up after Merkley left, but he was on a tear before he left.

  114. hags9k says:

    defmn: Jim Matheson
    ‏ @NHLbyMatty
    Aug 21

    Finnish League sources say Puljujarvi would likely get about 200,000 Euros ($221,000 US, $294,000 Cdn) to play in his hometown of Oulu. That’s long way from $1 mil US here.

    Man. If it is conflict in the dressing room keeping him away that’s ridiculous.

    They could put Pierre McGuire, Roseanne, a live cougar, Satan himself in the dressing room for 700K I will make it work.

  115. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Although you mentioned Bouchard’s play in the post season, I think it should be highlighted.

    He had 21 pts in 11 playoff games with the Knights, which is truly staggering

    I said: “Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp.”

    Which is pretty much the same amount of ink and exuberance you gave it.

    unbelievable tear = truly staggering
    11gp at 1.91 pts/gp = 21pts in 11 playoff games.

    It is up there in the history books as a great 11 playoff games. I think we agree on much of this. Bouchard is an amazing talent. I’m just not so sure we know yet who will be the better NHLer. At this point I think Samorukov may have more physicality, speed, and defensive accumen to build a career on and it may take him farther than Bouchard’s pure offensive talent. We wait.

  116. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: The fisttwo statements were a reference to David Staples of the cult of Hockey’s proclivity to writing articles entitled “Shots Fired!” In reference to dissenting opinions such as https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/shots-fired-oilers-insider-says-not-a-chance-that-connor-mcdavid-is-pushing-to-get-out-of-edmonton

    As for 5v5 offense, if you can control for player age and eliminate ‘fluke’ years, I suspect the predictive value would be very strong.

    1. Oh, OK.

    2. I suspect the predictive value would still be very short of very strong. Lots of randomness in hockey and lots of players who are about the same player. And, anyway, those two conditions in your if statement are doozies.

  117. defmn says:

    Jaxon: I said: “Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp.”

    Which is pretty much the same amount of ink and exuberance you gave it.

    unbelievable tear = truly staggering
    11gp at 1.91 pts/gp = 21pts in 11 playoff games.

    It is up there in the history books as a great 11 playoff games. I think we agree on much of this. Bouchard is an amazing talent. I’m just not so sure we know yet who will be the better NHLer. At this point I think Samorukov may have more physicality, speed, and defensive accumen to build a career on and it may take him farther than Bouchard’s pure offensive talent. We wait.

    I think we can agree that having the two of them on their current trajectory is nothing but good news for the Oilers future.

  118. Georgexs says:

    Ryan: My point is that if you look at year-over-year production to predict offensive production in the subsequent season without accounting for confounding variables such as player aging, you’ll likely see a stronger correlation for p/g than points/60 5v5 in part perhaps due to larger sample size, but as well due to the issue that 5v4 offense doesn’t decline with age.

    I see. Interesting.

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: Before. Samurokov scored 11pts in the 7 games before Merkley was traded from November 25th to December 14th, Merkley was traded December 15th. It seemed like after because many reporters spoke about how he lit it up after Merkley left, but he was on a tear before he left.

    My apologies. Did you check the game log? I did during Guelph’s playoff run and I thought his heater didn’t start until after the trade. I could be wrong and I’m too lazy to check.

  120. Georgexs says:

    OriginalPouzar: My point was that, given there is really zero expectation of producing offence on the PK and scoring isn’t a primary or even secondary goal, those that PK will have their numbers artificially reduced, even if its just a few minutes per game. Someone like Archibald, even more so than Drai, given lower overall minutes so PK being a higher percentage, will have his numbers skewed when comparing to a guy like Chiasson.

    This seems reasonable. I don’t know much about penalty killers. I should have a look.

  121. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: I said: “Although to be fair, Bouchard went on an unbelievable tear for 11GP at 1.91 pts/gp.”

    Which is pretty much the same amount of ink and exuberance you gave it.

    unbelievable tear = truly staggering
    11gp at 1.91 pts/gp = 21pts in 11 playoff games.

    It is up there in the history books as a great 11 playoff games. I think we agree on much of this. Bouchard is an amazing talent. I’m just not so sure we know yet who will be the better NHLer. At this point I think Samorukov may have more physicality, speed, and defensive accumen to build a career on and it may take him farther than Bouchard’s pure offensive talent. We wait.

    I’m not actually disagreeing with your argument. I guess I should have said more strongly that Bouchard might have been complacent during the regular season because he didn’t have anything left to prove in the CHL.

  122. Side says:

    Wilde: That’s still not contradictory. If it was, and I was saying Montreal’s roster was good, that wouldn’t be internally coherent because the point would be lost by condemning the lesser output of a team with lesser inputs!

    Should I be giving you less credit than I do?

    What a pretentious post. Lol

  123. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: My apologies. Did you check the game log? I did during Guelph’s playoff run and I thought his heater didn’t start until after the trade. I could be wrong and I’m too lazy to check.

    Yup, re-checked the game log tonight. November 25th is when he started heating up. As mentioned, it’s great to have 2 players on such a great trajectory. It has been fun watching Jones and Bear continue along somewhat parallel careers and they didn’t do quite as well as Bouchard and Samorukov at the same age. And we’ve also got Broberg on the way. Things are looking up on D.

  124. Munny says:

    Jaxon,

    Lol. thank gord they don’t play the same position.

    I’m not sure some of the compared qualities in your OP where you grant the edge to Samo are true on a certain level (they might be true.)

    I actually wanted Samo back in the CHL this year to build off that offensive season. From the games I watched, he looked like he was still figuring it out, and wasn’t fully confident. There was a fair amount of deference offensively to his partner in the MC too.

    Playing in the A will make that offensive development more difficult.

    Now Bouchard had that shit well-figured out by the end of the year prior. He was only in the C this year because they couldn’t put him anywhere else. Age makes a massive difference in predicting future offense.

    I would also add that as a Dman, playing top TOI with the best forwards on a great offensive team brings a lot of automatic points with it, which we have to be careful of.

    Not to knock Samo, he was a helluva pick, but we know less about his offense than we know about Bouchard’s. Be nice if we had primary points data. I mean those 25 goals by Bouchard as an 18yo just jumps right out at me. Ain’t nobody zooming that.

  125. Munny says:

    Lowetide: I’m always willing to learn, although it’s by sundial. Is there a long list of successful offensive players who are poor five-on-five performers?

    Georgexs,

    I think Georges is on to something.

    I’m more Latka Gravas than Vic Ferrari, but if I was to put on my jacket with the Elvis collar for a moment, I think Tim would say that PP scoring and 5 v 5 scoring—in general—require the same talent-sets. That those who are good at doing the one thing are also good at doing the other. And we see in most cases that the best EV scorers are typically a team’s PP options.

    I distinctly recall Vic saying things very close to that, if not exactly that… LT you might also.

    I think he would then say that when trying to predict the future (a fool’s game if there ever was one lol) the best thing to do is to choose the largest sample possible. Which of course was the philosophy behind us all jumping on the Corsi train back in the day. And it is Georges’s point too.

    The problem with scoring—and this also applies to age curves too, as I was expressing to Ryan the other day—is that it is so low, less than 10 percent of the offense directed towards a net, and affected by so many variables, that Variance is a Bitch.

    I don’t think anyone disputes that there is nothing more difficult than scoring at 5 v 5—it’s certainly harder than scoring on the PP—but if we solely look at that particular stat and take it as the Gospel, we are building more of that Variance Bitch into our equation. And more of our thoughts about the future will be inaccurate.

    *removes Disco jacket, pulls on coveralls and returns to working on the taxicab*

  126. Yeti says:

    Jaxon: Seeing that they’re only 4 months apart, other than their draft pedigree why do we have Bouchard challenging for a roster spot and Samorukov starting in the AHL.

    I’d imagine because there’s still a roster hole at RD and a glut at LD?

  127. Jaxon says:

    Yeti: I’d imagine because there’s still a roster hole at RD and a glut at LD?

    Good point.

  128. Jaxon says:

    Munny: Be nice if we had primary points data.

    ahhh! Your post prompted me to go to prospect-stats.com to dig up that info. It’s gone! It’s all gone! This makes me very sad. Does anyone know if that database has moved elsewhere?

  129. frjohnk says:

    Fascinating discussion on 5 on 5 scoring.

    I don’t have much time but would like to add that 5 on 5 scoring is also very dependent on who you play with if you come from the Caggiula, JP , Ty Rattie tree.
    These types of guys score at close to first line rates with an elite talent like McDavid, but score at 4th line rates elsewhere.

    Elite talents like McDavid will score at 1st line rates with pretty much anyone but who they play with will also affect those scoring rates. McDavid with Drai and he will be at the upper end. McDavid with a 4th liner and he will be at the bottom end 1st line rates.

  130. Yeti says:

    Jaxon: Good point.

    To be clear, I think your broader point stands – Samorukov may well turn out to be the more complete player. Wouldn’t it be cool if Samorukov – Bouchard was a regular D pairing playing good minutes by January 2021…

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti: To be clear, I think your broader point stands – Samorukov may well turn out to be the more complete player. Wouldn’t it be cool if Samorukov – Bouchard was a regular D pairing playing good minutes by January 2021…

    Huh, I was hoping to see that by November 2019! In Bakersfield, of course.

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti: I’d imagine because there’s still a roster hole at RD and a glut at LD?

    I think this is exactly it. Broberg is rated higher than Bouchard by Pronman, but he has a longer road to the NHL simply due to the Oilers depth chart.

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