Ken Holland inherited a fixer upper with some enormous gifts included, but was forced to shop at the bargain store all summer. His biggest move involved trading Milan Lucic (who was not working out) for James Neal (who may work out better) and we’ll see how it goes.
It falls to Dave Tippett to cobble the roster and we saw first blush at practice yesterday. It’s an interesting first glimpse into what the coaching staff is thinking.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
- New Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard and the Calder Trophy: The Oilers’ pursuit of the elusive rookie award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kyle Brodziak defied the odds, and then the Oilers, to carve out a significant NHL career
- Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
- Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
- Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
TIPPETT’S LINES
Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian. We could see a shuffle on right wing when an option comes available, my guess is James Neal plays at least some of the season with 97. Can McDavid-Draisaitl score 90+ again? I’m betting yes.
Sam Gagner—RNH—James Neal. This is why I love training camp and preseason. It’s like all the ingredients have been on the counter all summer and now the chef is starting to mix them, boil the water and pouring the wine. I don’t think this line a good idea, mostly because of foot speed and defensive acumen on the wings, but Dave Tippett is the chef. Gagner is the most likely player to capitalize offensively.
Jujhar Khaira—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald. Tippett talked about a heavy line and a skill line on his bottom six forward group. Khaira is a edgy player, Sheahan is a bigger man and Archibald is a small buzzaw. This line could work.
Markus Granlund—Gaetan Haas—Cameron Hebig. My guess is that Tippett identified pairs and then tacked a third on the side. Granlund-Haas might be a pair opening night, there’s speed and some experience. Nice reward for Hebig’s strong rookie camp showing.
Tomas Jurco—Cooper Marody—Alex Chiasson. I’m not sure there’s a pair here, more like Chiasson tacked to a couple of hopefuls. Still, all three should compete for a job so this line might not make sense but they have to start somewhere.
Joakim Nygard—Colby Cave—Patrick Russell. Both Nygard and Cave have a chance at the NHL opening night lineup, and Russell has some utility. I think Nygard makes the Oilers.
Tyler Benson—Ryan McLeod—Kailer Yamamoto. This could be an opening night Bakersfield line, although McLeod might not get a feature offensive role early in California. Oilers badly need the wingers to cash eventually.
Joe Gambardella—Brad Malone—Josh Currie. All three could play in the NHL this season, all three have some utility. To my mind, Gambardella’s style is a good fit for a Tippett team.
Ostap Safin—Luke Esposito—Anthony Peluso. This is the first trio without a true NHL recall option (that I can see). Peluso has NHL experience but my guess is he’ll play mostly against the Colorado Eagles.
Raphael Lavoie—Nolan Vesey—Kirill Maksimov—Beau Starrett. One imagines these four men get optioned out this weekend or Monday. There may be an NHLer on this line, but it won’t be this fall.
TIPPETT’S PAIRINGS
Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson. I think there’s a good chance we see these two men together opening night. Oilers seem quite invested in him, even early. If he plays well, suspect he gets at least 20 games.
Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson. Probably the biggest tweak by Tippett entering camp. Larsson needs a recovery season, Nurse needs a repeat of 2017-18. If this works, music!
Brandon Manning/Kris Russell—Matt Benning. This is the third pairing and I believe the chances of trade during the season are high for this group. Will Russell’s dutchies improve from the left hand side? I’m a fan of Benning and wonder if Tippett’s arrival could give him new life. Manning lined up with Benning because Russell was hurt and he has a chance to win 7D job imo. Not a good chance, but it’s there.
William Lagesson—Evan Bouchard. Both players in this pairing have a substantial chance to make the Oilers, so it’s worth noting they begin camp together. It’s important to find out about Lagesson in the next 12 months. Bouchard is the one defensive prospect whose skill is at a level where he could blow the whole damn bunch out of the water.
Dmitri Samorukov-Caleb Jones. Notable that Jones plays RH side based on depth chart and that could be a tell. I think Jones can win a spot with a solid camp. Samorukov was pedestrian at rookie camp and will want to avoid two lacklustre camps in a row.
Keegan Lowe—Ethan Bear/Vincent Desharnais. Bear is an interesting player in this defensive group, he has a little NHL experience and could slide into the third pairing if healthy and effective. Coverage and speed issues are things to watch for in preseason. Has he improved? Remember: Defensemen do not develop in a straight line. Struggle can mean motivation. Injuries are a concern.
Jake Kulevich-Logan Day. Holy crap this team has a lot of depth if Day is on the seventh pairing opening day at camp. He’s a good player.
General, although not universal, consensus on this blog. Of course, what this blog “thinks” is right, is not necessarily what Steve Yzerman thinks is right.
Yes, this is what others have suggested – I downloaded Chrome last night but haven’t had a chance to use is (I’m using my Windows based right now, for various reasons).
Thank you for the response and advice.
HTJoe,
Thanks.
The different operating system is going to take some time to get used to.
Press command+down arrow, which is essentially equal to pressing the end button on Windows.
MacT is getting his revenge it seems.
Of note, after losing his first two starts of the season, Konovalov hasn’t started either of the last two games for Yaroslavl – both wins.
Something to keep an eye on.
Team scrimmage today at the community center.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-approaching-uncertain-salary-cap-future-one-year-time/
“Friday night’s Marner signing also comes against the backdrop of the collective bargaining discussions between the NHL and NHL Players’ Association, which bear watching. While nothing has yet been agreed upon between those parties, sources with knowledge of the talks believe the salary cap could end up being frozen at its current $81.5-million ceiling for two more years — or raised only minimally — as a way to lower players’ escrow payments.
I said coming out of the first lockout that the escalator was foolishly being pegged at 5% every year by the NHLPA based on an unsustainable 7% growth spurt that the league saw in 2003-2004. Basically the players assumed the good times would always roll and were giving themselves the maximum 5% raise every year. Actual league revenues were only 1-3% per annum so at every season’s end the escrow amount came back to bite them in the ass just like an unpaid credit card bill.
If you heard Jonathon Toews complain, he says he doesn’t understand why he had to re-pay 18% escrow at the end of last season. If you go by that number, to decrease the escrow amount to zero, the actual cap limit should be closer to $75 million a year right now. This gives you an idea of how foolishly the NHLPA gave themselves raises every year activating overly large cap escalators for most of the past decade. Now in order to “rebalance” and decrease the escrow, the league revenues have to catch up to the players’ share of the pie by eliminating or minimizing any raises for two years.
I think they may have to freeze the cap for 4 years because I believe a 3% annual growth rate for the NHL over the next two years will still be unrealistic. But the players will never go for that. My gut feeling is that league revenues are strongly tied to the value of the Canadian dollar which is in turn heavily reliant on resource (oil) prices. With a Trump induced Great Depression on the horizon, I don’t think anyone should expect a healthy amount of growth in any business for the next five years unless you own a pawnshop.
From what I said in yesterday’s thread (with minor edits):
Next year TO has $66.3m against a Cap of (probably) $83.5m. For that $66.3m they have 8 of their top-9 forwards, 3 of the 4th line types, 1 1st-pair d-man and their #1 goalie. That includes Hyman. That is 13 of 23.
$17.2m to sign 2 more forwards, a back-up goalie and, at least, 6 defensemen. Lets say they follow the same format as this year and sign 2 forwards, the goalie and 3 of the 6 d-men to contracts averaging $750k. That is $4.5m and brings them to 19 of 23.
$12.7m left to fill out the last 3 d-men spots. This does not include any ‘LTIR’ contracts they decide to buy. I expect that this year and next they will run with 22 contracts instead of 23.
It is tight, especially if the Cap is any less than the $83.5m, but I think they are just waiting for Seattle expansion and the new TV contract to hit.
They will lose Hyman (and a draft pick to Seattle), one of Kapanen Johnsson or Kerfoot and one of Ceci, Barrie or Muzzin (read: Ceci) and have 2 to 3 lean years but they will be fine. Decent, if expensive, work by Dubas. Their young d-men HAVE to deliver, we’ll see.
I think Dubas will target Hossa’s $5.275m LTIR contract next year. Arizona will do well.
Also think that Calgary is a team in worse shape than Toronto.
– Tkachuk’s contract will cost them Frolik
– Jankowski, Kylington and Andersson will see jumps in their take home pay
– Brodie and Hamonic won’t be replaced for cheaper than what they are paying now (well, maybe Brodie)
– they still need a goalie and if Rittich is ‘the one’ he will double, or more his pay *
– right about when the goalie question needs answering they will have to deal with Dube’s and Valimaki’s contract
– what will Mangiapane get, I suspect ‘not much’, but I also suspect that will be a 2 year deal at most and that puts him in with Dube and the others
And, finally, they have nothing coming up on the farm (pretty slim there) and Giordano is getting older (36 in October – HE is the straw that stirs that drink) so every prospect that just graduated HAS to turn out. I think they lose Bennett or Jankowski to Seattle.
In regards to the Cap, Calgary is in worse shape than Toronto imo.
* basically, take Derek Ryan’s contract and shove those dollars into the goalie column, add a few bucks back to the plus with a cheap back-up (the savings on Talbot’s contract)
RHD have much more value at even skill. It’s a thing lefties are a dime a dozen. See Edmonton Oiler defenseman since forever.
Thanks. The RH shot makes sense although it seems to be agreed here on the blog that you always take BPA – at least in the first round.
If you already have an answer, I apologize for bing late (haven’t read the whole comments section. My iPad does the same thing with Safari. you could try Chrome or Firefox on the Air to see if the browser will make a difference. I usually am on my iPad when I respond, but I think FF on my PC(s) does the sme thing. so, Chrome?
Needed a right handed shot? I hope that wasn’t the reason unless they had they them ranked EXACTLY the same. Yikes.
Thanks for that.. I actually just installed Firefox to give it a shot, and it is indeed a good interface experience.
OP: For what it’s worth, I am no expert, but if Firefox works for you, it sounds like it is way better than Chrome from a digital security / privacy perspective. Good luck either way.
Needed a right-hand shot
Agreed. TO management overpaid Matthews for a shorter 5 yr term, and then had to overpay Marner.
Dubas did some good things to stay at the cap this year but far from brilliant so far. After this season he will need to rebuild his defence also. We’ll see how that goes.
I also have no problems with Firefox on a MacBook.
Simple theory:
1. He liked Seider better, partly because he’s a right shot.
More fun and convoluted theory:
1. Stevie liked Broberg better but not overly much.
2. Holland knew this and so decided to be extremely vocal about wanting Broberg, knowing that Stevie would feel pressured not to take him out of respect for his old boss.
3. Since Stevie didn’t have overly strong feelings about Broberg, that’s what happened.
Loving all the Leafs talk tonight. I wonder what Marner’s favourite colour is? Or what Matthew’s favourite movie is?
Thank you – I will download it. I am used to chrome on my work laptop.
I’m going to try to be objective here. Dubas has made some brilliant moves to manage the cap this year. But he created that hell by signing Tavares at $11 mill. By doing that he set the bar for Mathews and Marner. You can’t even ask them to take a hometown discount because you just paid someone else $11 mill. The team has massive cap issues and cobbling a defence group together next year will be a challenge. Who knows, maybe he can pull a rabbit out of the hat next year as well. For the record, I hate the Kadri trade. Guy has an incredibly great contract. It was a gift to the Avs. Exactly what that team needed. Would much rather have Kadri than Nylander straight up, not even factoring in the huge gap in contracts.
Really?
So the Leafs in their endless drive for the Cup and nothing else, are going to sell their Franchise player after only 4 shots rather than the already short 5? Instead of keeping him and going for the Cup one more time in his prime? And, if he makes it known that he is going to UFA regardless, someone is going to give up a boatload for him just to watch him walk at the end of the year? And that haul will help the Leafs continue to challenge for the Cup right away, which is the only goal of the franchise?
Golly indeed.
When I use Safari, all kinds of crazy happens. When I use Chrome on Windows or on MacBook air, the interface and experience is identical.
One would have to be dishonest, I think, to say that a shorter contract for an early 20’s star is preferable.
That said, I agree with our Vancouver Island friend that Dubas has done well to keep that core of players intact and that those deals will start to become value pretty quickly.
The Leafs cap situation is almost identical to the Oilers next year – they will have about $18M of space but with only a 12 player roster. For the Oilers, that is a 13 player roster (with Nurse signed at $7M).
Of those 12 players on their roster, one is a d-man.
The have to sign/acquire 6 roster d-man.
Not much without a contract extension agreement. That is why teams are willing to pay bigger dollars to get the UFA years. The player wants his retirement contract with big dollars extended term and no trade clauses.
What was Trouba worth having only a single year left on his contract?
A late first and Neal f’ing Pionk.
He has no trade protection because he didn’t give up any UFA years. Trade protection clauses can only attach to UFA years.
If he were traded in 4 years from now, I am 100% positive the Leafs could get more for him if he had 4 more years left on his contract as opposed to one year. The term of his contract reduces that trade value.
Tech question – I just bought a MacBook Air but when I quote a post, it doesn’t take to me to the place where I can reply to the post like it does on Windows. Is there an easy way?
Makes me think of this old movie scene.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0FAYOIt-VQ
I think its a big deal and the majority of the hockey world thinks its a big deal.
I think the reason for that is because it is indeed a big deal.
I don’t disagree with not signing most players past 4 years or so but we are talking about a franchise player, not a player where we don’t know how he will fare over the next few years, but an elite goal scoring center. Dubas would have prefered to tack on 3 years to that contract, I’m highly confident.
Would you have preferred McDavid only signed for 5 years to take him until 26? I mean, imagine what Holland could do with that cap space?
I think Iggy’s $91M still has him.
Yup, if Benson does surpass him in earning, assuming he does so as an Oiler, we will be doing very well.
Just like your predictions for the Wild, eh? So how did those turn out again? idiocy ….
Dubas has said publicly quite a few times about making long term plans and getting his players long term so they know they are part of this long term plan.
Unless you are saying this is part of his 3D chess playing here.
Golly.
If Matthews won’t re-sign with Toronto, what do you think he might fetch in a trade?
He has no trade protection.
He might…but it’s not a big deal.
He will have all kinds of options when the time comes.
Planning more than 5 years ahead in a rapidly shifting landscape in pretty much a waste of time.
As it stands, he has a fabulous top 9 locked up for a significant period.
Do you have a crystal ball? You seem to be suggesting Dubas is a genius for signing shorter contracts because you are certain the cap is increasing significantly.
Like, who is he going to sign with “Matthews money” when Austen signs with Arizona?
Oh right, McDavid. Pfffffff.
OriginalPouzar,
Congrats to Spurgeon anyway.
I believe this makes him the most well-compensated Edmonton-born player in history.
Here’s hoping Benson eclipses his total career earnings ;
Do you honestly believe that Dubas would rather have Matthews at $11M until his 26 years of age as opposed to Matthews at $11M until he’s 29? You honestly believe he’d rather have “cap space flexibility” than his franchise player from signed between 26 and 29 years of age?
If that is what you believe why pick up Tavares as a UFA. You can’t have it both ways.
I believe I retorted at the time that, while he’d be a great fit for a year or two, I wouldn’t pay the acquisition cost as I had no desire to resign him given his age.
Do you have a crystal ball that indicates what the cap will be in 2024-25?
Dubas will have all kinds of cap space to play with and if he can’t re-sign his FAs will have a tremendous arsenal of trade assets.
The structure of league contracts is rapidly changing and locking up assets for 7-8 years with trade restrictions is becoming anachronistic.
Tippett knows him, but there is a reason 2 of his last 3 teams demoted him to the AHL and now he is older…… I think there are hungrier and better/faster/cheaper players vying for spots. Unless they play him at the Letestu spot like they did in Columbus, I don’t see him winning a job. He is just too slow…
I’m quite confident Dubas would have rather had Matthews for 3 more years and his 26-29 years. Those years may be the tail end of his offensive prime but they will be absolutely his prime years as an overall player. Not to mention, the years where his AAV would start to look better.
Similar with Marner but add a year.
There is no way that Dubas is happy with the term he had to take on the premise stated above.
This past summer I made an argument on this blog for the Oilers to trade for Jared Spurgeon.
He signs today for $7.5M x 7.
I was wrong. That will be an awful contract before it has expired, and will couple with the hangover portions of the Suter and Parise contracts.
I cannot envision the Minnesota Wild being competitive at any point over the next seven seasons.
Perhaps Yzerman and his team like Seider better?
Maybe Holland and his team liked Seider better but, perhaps, they had a hard target on Brobeg – sounds to me like they really liked Broberg.
Even extended playoff runs would accomplish that and would make Rogers very, very happy.
Peak value is currently being re-defined as elite players coming out of their ELCs.
By the time any of the Leaf superstars need new contracts in five years or more, the cap will be much, much higher.
Seattle revenues and the new US TV deal will push the cap a lot higher.
In the meantime, Dubas has locked up a fabulous core for the next 5-6 years.
By then, the Leaf contracts will be relative bargains.
Second great comment today. Not quite up to the bear standard.?