Opening night lineup coming into view

The Edmonton Oilers are 2-3-0 in preseason with two games to go before the end of the exhibition schedule. The club’s overall goal differential (13-16) includes a five-on-five differential of -1 (10-11). The Oilers badly need to improve that ratio, and to grab secondary scoring from depth lines.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ bottom-six forwards, penalty kill shine in loss to Arizona Coyotes
  • Lowetide: Injuries and prospects: A brief Oilers history of devastating derailments
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
  • Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
  • Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
  • Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
  • Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Brandon Manning on how his contract is hurting him, proving his worth at camp and being a mentor
  • Jonathan Willis: Four players who helped, three who hurt their Oilers hopes in Edmonton’s second preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How an offseason adding more pop in his stick and skates has James Neal primed for first Oilers season
  • Lowetide: A big night for Oilers defencemen Joel Persson, William Lagesson and Evan Bouchard
  • Lowetide: Handicapping Oilers prospect progress: The development of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
  • Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

LAST NIGHT’S GAME (5×5)

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian. 11:25, 7-8 Corsi for, 6-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 1-2 HDSC.

Connor McDavid had a gigantic chance early, but nothing rhymed most of the night. Who cares? 10 fingers and toes and he remains the fastest train on record. I think he might get the Saturday game.

Leon Draisaitl had the roar and his partner in crime, but as the game wore along his attention to detail drifted. Still made some great plays. Saturday’s lineup will be interesting.

Zack Kassian seemed the most engaged of the top trio, he got a nice chance in the first period off an errant pass.

LINE 2 Sam Gagner-RNH-James Neal. 10:22 together, 12-10 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 0-3 goals, 1-3 HDSC.

Sam Gagner is terrific with the puck on his stick, great passer and fabulous vision. He also made a nice defensive play. However, this needs to be an outscoring line and I’m not sure No. 2 LW is his sweet spot.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a shorty, his snapshot is even better this year. The goal against is a perfect example of why he needs better support. 93 lost a small struggle for puck possession in the neutral zone and Crouse had a nice lane to the net. Playing without the puck is a lot about positioning, and Nuge is going to be alone a lot this year.

James Neal had three shots and one HDSC (high danger scoring chance) but wasn’t a factor in the game. He’s a tricky fellow to mark, because in the middle of not doing anything he’ll score. Didn’t have a big night.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald 8:26 together, 15-2 Corsi, 10-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC. Write this line in stone. My piece in The Athletic goes into a little more detail on Khaira, I believe in this player.

LINE 4 Patrick Russell-Colby Cave-Alex Chiasson were 6:45, 13-9 Corsi together, 10-6 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC. Cave had both HD chances, I like him but he’s going to spoil 25 tap-ins. Russell has surely made the team and Chiasson must be wondering how he landed with this crew after a 22-goal season.

DEFENSE (5X5)

Darnell Nurse-Adam Larsson were 7-12 Corsi in 12:01, 5-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Nurse pinched when he would have been better to stay and the duo doesn’t have a crisp outlet passer among them.

On the other hand, Oscar Klefbom-Adam Larsson were 12-4 in 6:10, 8-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-1 HDSC. The GA was a great pass to the wrong team, Larsson sending it for an Oilers forward who zigged when he should have zagged (is my guess). This pairing is damned good.

Oscar Klefbom-Joel Persson went 5-6 Corsi in 6:01 before Persson’s injury. 4-5 shots, no goals, I thought Persson performed well with the puck and in puck pursuit. Needs to work on his board battles.

Kris Russell-Matt Benning went 7-2 Corsi in 6:30, 3-2 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC. Benning hammered the puck senseless and hit the post in the first, man he can unleash the hounds. Russell looked fine LH side on the first day back to work.

Darnell Nurse-Matt Benning were meh in 4:22, 3-4 Corsi, 1-3 shots and 1-2 HDSC.

I thought Mike Smith played well, Koskinen made some big stops too. Goalies weren’t the culprit last night. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick.

CERTAIN OILERS [18]

The 18 men we started out with remain, Granlund is apparently nicked up so he’ll be on the opening night roster but possibly on IR. Neal moving to RW complicates things, but coach Tippett is moving Gagner et al as opposed to deploying bubble men.

UNCERTAIN OILERS [9]

Evan Bouchard was sent down last night, that’s what the Oilers should have done with Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi. Bouchard is probably NHL-ready, but for an organization that has capsized so many prospects on this trip across the AHL to NHL waters, I’m fine with 20 games in California for this player. Persson’s injury may help both Lagesson and Bear.

DISTANT BELLS [3]

Shane Starrett also sent out, and with Logan Day requiring surgery and Burdasov arriving so late, we’re down to Manning. My suspicion is that Lagesson wins the No. 7 job, but Manning is still in camp.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, there’s a lot going on. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me at 10:20, we’ll chat about last night’s game and the roster cuts. Kent Wilson will pop in at 10:40 from The Athletic to talk about the new Matt Tkachuk deal. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will chat football just after 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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161 Responses to "Opening night lineup coming into view"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Persson gets hurt (shoulder) and, although we don’t know how “bad” it is, they still send Bouchard down.

    Very happy they “stuck with this plan”. They know how important this prospect is and, while I’m sure they see the NHL ready and “Oiler top 4 ready” offensive and transition skills, they know there are parts of his game that could use some seasoning. Not to mention, pro hockey and its schedule is an absolute grind, in particular as compared to junior hockey – adjusting to the grind is also a real thing and its excellent that Bouch will be able to develop his skills and get used to the pro game in the appropriate league where there isn’t a ridiculous amount of pressure.

    While I don’t imagine he spends the entire year in the AHL, lets not forget that, if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games this year, his contract will indeed slide.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping that Nygard (face lacitration) and Jurco (undisclosed) are able to play tomorrow night in Winnipeg – there is still a 2LW spot open for the taking in my opinion. I guess Burdasov should be in that mix as well.

    I don’t know what happens to Gagner is one of the other two (three) slide in to 2LW to start the year.

    Granlund as well – he’ll be on the roster but he may be 13th forward with Russell being on the 4th line.

  3. Pretendergast says:

    PK went 5-5 and the bottom six outplayed the competition, at the very least pulling a Strome line last year where nothing happened, and that was okay cause it meant we weren’t getting caved like usual.

    An upgrade from Gagner would help balance the forwards but it ain’t coming unless Benson goes full Pisani.

    Tippett has done what he set out to do so far, now he’s gotta get the thoroughbreds rolling and buy Koskinen a glove 5 times as big.

    The D scares me, not quite good enough. Saw Benning good on what I believe was 3rd pair.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    How many games until 77-6 are the top pair getting the OEL treatment of 40%+ TOI vs Elites?

    If the line is 10 games I’ll take the under.

  5. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    How many games until 77-6 are the top pair getting the OEL treatment of 40%+ TOI vs Elites?

    If the line is 10 games I’ll take the under.

    Not taking that bet.

    Makes sense to send Bouchard down but guess what, the D is still worse than mediocre, and there still aren’t any top 6 players not named McDavid, Drai or Nuge.

    You’ve got Kassian, Neal and Gagner playing in the top 2 lines.

    If playoffs are more than an oilpipe dream, it’s going to be (once again) McDavid brilliance + supernova hot goaltending.

  6. razor says:

    LT, I read your take on last nights game at the Athletic and I agree about the lack off defensive conscience on 2L and also Khaira. Nuge has also stated that the player he feels he has the most chemistry with is Khaira. Therefore, I suggest this lineup:
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Chiasson- Sheahan- Archibald
    Jurco- Granlund- Gagner
    I don’t think Gagner has enough to maintain his spot on the second line. 4th line can be the sheltered offensive line that Tippet has been suggesting.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    3 x $7M seems like a pretty fair deal for Calgary and Tkachuk.

    Agreed – its a “fair deal” for the next three years but, remember, this structure is very player friendly.

    The third year has the $9M salary so his QO needs to be $9M and Tkachuk will have arbitration rights.

    He can essentially turn this in to a 4 year/$30M (min) deal that takes him right to UFA.

    For the next three years, its value but its got long term risk for sure.

  8. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    How many games until 77-6 are the top pair getting the OEL treatment of 40%+ TOI vs Elites?

    If the line is 10 games I’ll take the under.

    What’s your over/under till Russell finds his way back to 2RD?

  9. Dr. Taboggan says:

    dustrock,

    Take a look at the 2015-2016 Oilers roster. Is this year any better? It is really close, and that is depressing.

  10. Truth says:

    Lol. The Athletic annual goalie tiers article is up. Formulated from a panel of NHL GM’s, coaches, and goalie coaches. the article has Koskinen as the lowest rated starter in the league.

    Comments such as; “oof, don’t like him” and “what a signing…I don’t know what that was.”

    Everyone is worried about who’s going to play where in the lineup. It’s not going to make a difference when both goalies are posting 0.880 save percentages. We’re in for a long year, I’m thinking.

  11. JJS says:

    Pretendergast:
    PK went 5-5 and the bottom six outplayed the competition, at the very least pulling a Strome line last year where nothing happened, and that was okay cause it meant we weren’t getting caved like usual.

    An upgrade from Gagner would help balance the forwards but it ain’t coming unless Benson goes full Pisani.

    Tippett has done what he set out to do so far, now he’s gotta get the thoroughbreds rolling and buy Koskinen a glove 5 times as big.

    The D scares me, not quite good enough. Saw Benning good on what I believe was 3rd pair.

    Agreed. And the bottom six did more than just hold their own. Heavily out-corsi’d the Coyotes.

    That third line may make some noise

  12. hunter1909 says:

    LAST WEEK! LAST WEEK!!! LAST WEEK! LAST WEEK!! LAST WEEK!!

    FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  13. teddyturnbuckle says:

    As the roster begins to take shape I think we should definitely prepare ourselves for another year out of the playoffs. The second line is going to get crushed and the right side on D looks skimpier than a mini skirt at Barrie -T’s. Larsson , Benning and Bear probably to start. In the real world Larsson is a 4 and Benning and Bear are 6’s.

  14. Darth Tu says:

    Truth:
    Lol.The Athletic annual goalie tiers article is up.Formulated from a panel of NHL GM’s, coaches, and goalie coaches. the article has Koskinen as the lowest rated starter in the league.

    Comments such as; “oof, don’t like him” and “what a signing…I don’t know what that was.”

    Everyone is worried about who’s going to play where in the lineup.It’s not going to make a difference when both goalies are posting 0.880 save percentages.We’re in for a long year, I’m thinking.

    Columbus says hello. Korpisalo (admittedly in a backup role) has rocked a sterling .897 save percentage for the last 2 seasons.

    Goalies are a concern, but the Oilers aren’t the only team in the shitter with their starter this year.

  15. Truth says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    As the roster begins to take shape I think we should definitely prepare ourselves for another year out of the playoffs.The second line is going to get crushed and the right side on D looks skimpier than a mini skirt at Barrie -T’s.Larsson , Benning and Bear probably to start.In the real world Larsson is a 4 and Benning and Bear are 6’s.

    Not to mention the goalies are likely to let in about 0.5 – 0.75 goals per game more than the average goalie in the league.

  16. jake70 says:

    hunter1909:
    LAST WEEK!LAST WEEK!!!LAST WEEK!LAST WEEK!!LAST WEEK!!

    FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    It amazes me that poster who believe the team will add double digit+ points up the next season post their predictions so early.

  17. Ribs says:

    Got a giggle out of this TSN quote from Nuge on Tippett…

    “He’s a big structure guys with his systems and I think that’s going to be big for us because I think in the past, when things start going bad for us, we kind of abandon our structure and then things get worse and worse,” forward said. “When things start to go wrong, I think Tipp’s going to be able to keep us within that structure.”

    It’s almost as if Nuge anticipates things to go wrong this season!

  18. Truth says:

    Darth Tu,

    I agree there are a few teams in the same position, but none with realistic playoff aspirations (are the Oilers’ outside of Edmonton??). All the referenced quotes in that article display a lot of promise in Korpisalo as someone on the rise. The exact opposite of what could be said about both Koskinen and Smith.

  19. Darth Tu says:

    Truth:
    Darth Tu,

    I agree there are a few teams in the same position, but none with realistic playoff aspirations (are the Oilers’ outside of Edmonton??). All the referenced quotes in that article display a lot of promise in Korpisalo as someone on the rise. The exact opposite of what could be said about both Koskinen and Smith.

    I don’t think we realistically have playoff hopes. I’m hoping for an improvement in play from the defence, and less shitting the bed completely by the PK this year.

    Better protection for the goalies will help this year, and that’s what we need to rely on. Apart from that, hope that one of the goalies in the pipeline develops into a starter over the next few years. Starret looks like he could be trending towards being a capable backup (for next season). Who knows, maybe he can continue to develop towards being a number 1.

  20. who says:

    I think the question marks in this lineup are pretty obvious.
    1. Is the goaltending good enough? I have no idea, but I think the best we can hope for is middle of the pack.
    2. Who plays 2RD? Looks to me like we have a bunch of 3RD/PP guys (Perrson, Bear, Bouchard), and one proven 3RD ( Benning). Best bet is probably Bouchard at 2RD next fall. I have no answers for this year.
    3. Who is the 2LW? And is Neal really a 2nd line winger? Don’t know yet, but we do have more options here. Just don’t know if any of them are good options. Also don’t think the position is as crucial as 2RD.
    4. Who is our 3C? Sheehan has looked decent but would probably be 4C on a good team. Cave has had a good camp, but I don’t see NHL skill here. Probably best suited to 13th forward. The only answer I can come up with is to move Drai to center and hope we have 3 lines that can slightly outscore the opposition. Looks to me like we have a bunch of 3rd line wingers, Drai is certainly the only 1st line winger we have, so why not give the top 9 three good centers and hope for the best.
    I was encouraged to read your take on Khaira LT. I have been reading a lot of negative comments on him lately and I just don’t see it. I see a big strong forward, with NHL average speed, who can control the puck down low. He also seems to have the patience and vision to make a play in all 3 zones. He may never score 20 goals, but he can help just about any line.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    Please, please, please; just one more 1st overall pick. I promise not to piss it away this time.

  22. McNuge93 says:

    Darth Tu: Columbus says hello.Korpisalo (admittedly in a backup role) has rocked a sterling .897 save percentage for the last 2 seasons.

    Goalies are a concern, but the Oilers aren’t the only team in the shitter with their starter this year.

    Not sure it makes me feel any better, that there are some teams almost as bad as us.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    No peeking

    What was SLB pre-season record last year?

    What was Washington Caps record the year before?

    Nothing really matters in September games?

  24. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Sonny Milano sounds like he’s on the outs in Columbus.

    Worth a late round pick? LW with some skill (and warts)

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Please, please, please; just one more 1st overall pick. I promise not to piss it away this time.

    – Reminds me of the first bumper sticker I ever saw (in Yellowknife, bumper stickers just frooze off, so no one had them).

    But the first time I came down south to Edmonton as a kid, I saw this one: “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next time”

    – Even at 11 years old I thought it was funny. It was a common bumper sticker at the time…Bumper stickers are fun when you are driving to new places. They are bigger thing (and way more diverse and whacky) in the US is my unscientific analysis.

    – Who here has a bumper sticker, and if so, what does it say?

  26. Kraz says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 95 points and 14 goals for Puljujarvi

  27. jtblack says:

    “However, this needs to be an outscoring line”

    I agree the 2nd Line has to outscore. Question is: “Assuming Connor and Leon stay together, is there any real combination that the Oilers can deploy that can outscore Most other teams 2nd lines?”

    I do not believe so.

    I am interested to see if others have a possible solution?

  28. ronniegoeswild says:

    hunter1909

    I predict the Oilers will finish with 85 points and JP will score 13 goals.

  29. jtblack says:

    Woogie63:
    No peeking

    What was SLB pre-season record last year?

    What was Washington Caps record the year before?

    Nothing really matters in September games?

    I agree Pre season records are irrelevant. But Roster construction and Talent are not.

    Edmonton has a poor roster full of holes, from forward depth to D pairings to question marks in Goal.

    They lack talent on 3 out of 4 forward lines.

    As usual, if everything breaks right, they will compete for a playoff spot. BUT, with any injury triubles or if things don’t break right, they don’t have the depth

  30. Younger Oil says:

    My biggest concern for this season is that I don’t see our goalies getting through a period without letting in at least one goal too often.

    I also don’t see our forward group getting more than three goals a game very often.

    That will make it very difficult to outscore the other team on a consistent basis.

  31. GBandQ says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Sonny Milano sounds like he’s on the outs in Columbus.

    Worth a late round pick? LW with some skill (and warts)

    We are “loaded” on LW, no?
    RW is the problem spot. No way should Kass be the everyday 1RW.
    How much of the current batch of LWs on this roster could play the other side?

  32. cowboy bill says:

    Yup … maybe they should put Klefbom & Larsson back together , Nurse and Bear / Persson on the second pair . It might be something to try in the preseason . But on the other hand , Nurse may need the stability of a Larsson and not so much the instability of playing with two young players .
    Klefbom is the steadier player and might be better suited to mentor two young players . No doubt his countrymen ,Persson would probably be the preferred partner . But depending on how serious Persson’s shoulder injury is , now the opportunity belongs to Bear .When Persson is ready they could alternate the two working them both into the rigors of NHL play partnered with Klefbom . Allowing both to showcase their talents .

    They could go with 8 defenseman ( Nurse , Larsson , Klefbom , Bear / Persson , Russell , Benning & Manning or Lagesson ? maybe Manning at #8 ) & 13 forwards that I won’t bother to name .

  33. McSorley33 says:

    jtblack,

    They lack talent on 3 out of 4 forward lines.
    *************************************************************
    This needs to be pinned at the top of all of our threads this year…

    Plus, Mikko Koskinen is our starter and our back up goalie is turns 38
    in March.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Please, please, please; just one more 1st overall pick. I promise not to piss it away this time.

    At this point I wouldn’t mind getting 2nd or 3rd, either. Objectively Lafreniere is ahead of the others, but seeing as Byfield is a very late birthday and Holtz and Raymond play in a pro league already, I’d be very happy even if we don’t score the 1OA.

  35. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

  36. Pouzar says:

    who: 4. Who is our 3C? Sheehan has looked decent but would probably be 4C on a good team. Cave has had a good camp, but I don’t see NHL skill here.

    I’ve seen Cave way better than Sheahan in preseason. The former was better 5v5 last year by a long shot(extremely low bar though) and looked to be playing a ton of PK this preseason on the first unit.

  37. Dustylegnd says:

    hunter1909:
    LAST WEEK!LAST WEEK!!!LAST WEEK!LAST WEEK!!LAST WEEK!!

    FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    Oilers get 83 points and JP scores 12 goals

  38. Pouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    jtblack,

    They lack talent on 3 out of 4 forward lines.
    *************************************************************
    This needs to be pinned at the top of all of our threads this year…

    Plus, Mikko Koskinen is our starter and our back up goalie is turns 38
    in March.

    There is more “talent” on the sidelines if indeed last night was the “dress rehearsal”.
    I got sick every time Stauffer said this yesterday on his show/color commentary.

  39. Dustylegnd says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

    It is funny because it is true…..good lord

  40. who says:

    GBandQ: We are “loaded” on LW, no?
    RW is the problem spot. No way should Kass be the everyday 1RW.
    How much of the current batch of LWs on this roster could play the other side?

    This is an interesting take.
    Can you name 1 left shot winger, other than Drai, that is better than Kassian right now?

  41. Bos8 says:

    People have been glooming and dooming all summer. Relax guys, take a deep breath. Season starts shortly, then you can gloom for real. Real talent is a step away, both D and forwards, including Center.

    ‘‘Tis the season of bounty, God Bless”.

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    “However, this needs to be an outscoring line”

    I agree the 2nd Line has to outscore.Question is: “Assuming Connor and Leon stay together, is there any real combination that the Oilers can deploy that can outscore Most other teams 2nd lines?”

    I do not believe so.

    I am interested to see if others have a possible solution?

    Winnipeg has lots of young forwards but badly needs defensemen. Surely something could be made to work… I would not suggest trading one of the big-3 until the prospects show that they’re ready, but if the trade was a clear win? It’s not like there are any expectations this season anyhow.

    Something like Vesalainen for one or two of the young guys might work too, although the Jets might like to wait a bit to see how they do against NHL comp.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Darth Tu,

    ArmchairGM,

    – Meh: all we know based on history is that many of the players in each of those “tiers” will do a lot better or worse, and next year, those “tiers” will be a lot different.

    – FUN FACTS:

    In 2017-2018 there were 21 goalies with 5×5 GAA > .920 (30 starts min.)

    In 2018-2019, there were 22 goalies with 5×5 GAA > .920: (30 starts min.)

    – Guess how many of those 21 goalies in 2017 weren’t above .920 in 2018?

    Answer: 12.

    – More than half the “good” goalies changed. We are just guessing how Smith and Koski will do this year, based on last year. (well except OP who “knows” that Koski is awful, but hopes he’s wrong)

    – Bennington was in the minors, and won the Cup. Quick was a stud, and then this Jack Campbell was awesome. Smith was awesome 2 years ago, then sucked last. Greiss was almost out of hockey, and everyone felt sorry for Lehner moving from Buffalo. Khudobin was done in Boston, then went to DAL.

    – You just don’t know how the system is going to work, the puck luck, a bunch of things. Everything is just look-back with goalies. Even the “elite” have bad years.

  44. Atc-Nate says:

    Hunter1909

    91 points / 10

    Ty sir

  45. who says:

    Pouzar: I’ve seen Cave way better than Sheahan in preseason. The former was better 5v5 last year by a long shot(extremely low bar though) and looked to be playing a ton of PK this preseason on the first unit.

    Maybe.
    Sheehan looks bigger, and seems to have better puck skills.
    My point is, neither one of them looks like a 3C to me.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    GBandQ: We are “loaded” on LW, no?

    Not really, no. Both Neal and Burdasov prefer playing on the right side despite shooting left, and Draisaitl would do fine there as well due to his one-timer. Any improvement in talent is welcome.

  47. GBandQ says:

    who,

    Not sure anyone is. Which is the problem, and has been for a while.
    There’s quantity, but not quality.

    And all 3 of Nygard, Jurco and Burdasov are LWs.
    I spose Neal could play RW, can any of these guys play the opp side as well?

    Ugh.

  48. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

    LOL. Maybe we can hold off til NEW YEARS. early 5 game road trip will be a big tell …

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

    Aren’t Canadians thankful every day?!

  50. Pouzar says:

    who: My point is, neither one of them looks like a 3C to me.

    Agreed

  51. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Winnipeg has lots of young forwards but badly needs defensemen.

    There are lots of matchups for deals but for NHL GMs it’s like splitting the f^cking atom OR
    it’s bizzarro world trades like yesterday…”You what we need?!?!?!…ANOTHER Right Shot d-man!!!”

  52. Ginch says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “Please don’t tell my Mom I work in the oil patch. She still thinks I’m a piano player in a whorehouse”

  53. Pouzar says:

    GBandQ: And all 3 of Nygard, Jurco and Burdasov are LWs.

    Jurco has played mainly RW and I believe Burdasov has in the KHL as well.
    We as fans of the Oil have been conditioned to conflate handedness and position.

  54. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Off topic: but I live in Toronto, and would listen to the FAN on my drives home, as I liked the guests Bobcat used to get. The “smart” people: Brunt, Deistch and Blair are getting demoted.

    – Those :”smart” people, they needed a talent like Bob to bounce off of, and run the show. None of them are natural “hosts”, and prone to long rambling: collectively they will be a challenge, and now they won’t get the guests. It’s a shame because I do appreciate their more “adult” conversations, and not Leafs Nation all the time. They all have varied sports backgrounds and good insights

    – Tim & Sid: this was telegraphed a long time ago. Different strokes for different folks. Guess I’m going to have to find something else to listen to on drives home (I go from CNBC to the FAN, and if there is a good Howard Stern interview that as well):

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/more/sportsnet-590-fan-announces-new-revamped-schedule/

  55. Pouzar says:

    Rapid fire snarky posts over the day.

    *back to lurking*

  56. GBandQ says:

    Pouzar: Jurco has played mainly RW and I believe Burdasov has in the KHL as well.
    We as fans of the Oil have been conditioned to conflate handedness and position.

    Good point.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

    It’s weird. Last night Oilers started off organised and I still think they’re getting into the playoffs yet…

    Then these miserable and informed Lowetide posters go and drag me down to their realistic and sensible level.

  58. SkatinginSand says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Darth Tu,

    ArmchairGM,

    – Meh: all we know based on history is that many of the players in each of those “tiers” will do a lot better or worse, and next year, those “tiers” will be a lot different.

    – FUN FACTS:

    In 2017-2018 there were 21 goalies with 5×5 GAA > .920 (30 starts min.)

    In 2018-2019, there were 22 goalies with 5×5 GAA > .920: (30 starts min.)

    – Guess how many of those 21 goalies in 2017 weren’t above .920 in 2018?

    Answer: 12.

    – More than half the “good” goalies changed.We are just guessing how Smith and Koski will do this year, based on last year. (well except OP who “knows” that Koski is awful, but hopes he’s wrong)

    – Bennington was in the minors, and won the Cup.Quick was a stud, and then this Jack Campbell was awesome.Smith was awesome 2 years ago, then sucked last.Greiss was almost out of hockey, and everyone felt sorry for Lehner moving from Buffalo.Khudobin was done in Boston, then went to DAL.

    – You just don’t know how the system is going to work, the puck luck, a bunch of things.Everything is just look-back with goalies.Even the “elite” have bad years.

    Good point, but a 31 yr. old goalie with extremely poor movement and body positioning has very little chance of making a significant upward move.

  59. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Please, please, please; just one more 1st overall pick. I promise not to piss it away this time.

    That’s what we need. A Québecois Super Star to pair with Lavoie.

  60. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ginch:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “Please don’t tell my Mom I work in the oil patch. She still thinks I’m a piano player in a whorehouse”

    haha if that is for real your bumper sticker!

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Reminds me of the first bumper sticker I ever saw (in Yellowknife, bumper stickers just frooze off, so no one had them).

    But the first time I came down south to Edmonton as a kid, I saw this one: “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next time”

    – Even at 11 years old I thought it was funny.It was a common bumper sticker at the time…Bumper stickers are fun when you are driving to new places.They are bigger thing (and way more diverse and whacky) in the US is my unscientific analysis.

    – Who here has a bumper sticker, and if so, what does it say?

    Now there’s a business opportunity for a young buck. Hang out at the exit after an Oilers game and you’ll be selling a bunch of bumper stickers.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: Now there’s a business opportunity for a young buck. Hang out at the exit after an Oilers game and you’ll be selling a bunch of bumper stickers.

    Then management phones the police and he gets busted for selling on the street without a licence.

  63. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: At this point I wouldn’t mind getting 2nd or 3rd, either. Objectively Lafreniere is ahead of the others, but seeing as Byfield is a very late birthday and Holtz and Raymond play in a pro league already, I’d be very happy even if we don’t score the 1OA.

    From what I understand, there’s four or five guys who can step into the NHL right away. And a goalie who will go a bit lower who is supposed to be special.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Respectfully, talk about next year’s draft should be off limits until at least Thanksgiving.

    Canadian Thanksgiving, but still…

    Makes sense to me. No more draft talk for three weeks. We still have hope for a couple weeks anyway.

  65. cowboy bill says:

    Just maybe they should look at Sam Gagner at 3c .

    Leon-McDavid-Kass
    Nygard / Burdasov-Nuge-Neal
    Granlund-Gagner-Chiasson
    Khaira-Sheahan-Arch

    Cave

    It just balances things out . But what would really balance things out , is taking Leon off of McDavid;s wing , Now is the time in pre season to look at these options . There’s only two more pre season games and they need to sort these things out before the games become meaningful .

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: That’s what we need. A Québecois Super Star to pair with Lavoie.

    Maybe having Lafreniere and Lavoie as linemates would convince Nuge to stick around… otherwise we aren’t adding a 1OA to the arsenal, we’re just exchanging an older one for a newer one.

  67. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SkatinginSand: Good point, but a 31 yr. old goalie with extremely poor movement and body positioning has very little chance of making a significant upward move.

    – just a narrativ IMO: Greiss was done, Halak awful, Lehner, Khudobin, Kuemper, Howard, Rittich, Mrazek: all these guys and more provided .920 + GAA%, and most thought they were “done”

    – All of them top-21 GAA%5×5 in 2018 (none of them the year before)

    – We will look back this year and say “yup Koski sucked”, Smith was old garbage, or “Man Tippet’s systems helped, Koski emerged and is now legit, and Smith was great, or thank god Starrett came in and saved the day”

    – I know what consensus is: consensus is very unlikely for our G’s IMO: the variability taking just 2 years of results is too compelling to ignore. Narratives are written after the fact to match up with the goalies results. We just don’t know based IMO

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bos8:
    People have been glooming and dooming all summer.Relax guys, take a deep breath.Season starts shortly, then you can gloom for real.Real talent is a step away, both D and forwards, including Center.

    ‘‘Tis the season of bounty, God Bless”.

    I think I’m at peace with the situation. I won’t lose my marbles when we get clobbered. Even last year, I had hope to start the season because of the kids. Optimism is essential to a happy life. Maybe not so much as an Oiler fan.

  69. jp says:

    Pouzar: I’ve seen Cave way better than Sheahan in preseason. The former was better 5v5 last year by a long shot(extremely low bar though) and looked to be playing a ton of PK this preseason on the first unit.

    You mean by underlying metrics? I’m fairly certain (without checking) that Sheahan was better by goal differential and points. He also scored 32 points the previous season.

  70. Georgexs says:

    Tippett’s system requires his defensemen to make good reads quickly.

    Some of our defensemen didn’t do that last night.

    This is going to happen. The Oilers will make mistakes and lose games. They’re not going to be a pre-season powerhouse like they were in the TMac era. So sad.

    Interesting to see how Tippett handles it. If he get carried away with the PR part of his job rather than the HC part of his job (like our two most recent coaches), the results won’t change. I don’t think he’s that guy given his work in the league so far. I really like Tippett. He kept his post-game short and blunt. Wasn’t that interested in talking to the town through the media. Hopefully that means he saves what he really wants to say for his players. The rest is “just something you gotta do”. But this town has been known to mess with the hockey pros who pass through here.

    It’s a good thing the top 6 did so poorly (0-4 5×5, 0-2 on PP) and the bottom 6 did so well (1-0 5×5, 5-5 on PK).

    I think Tippett’s going to have to give the Euro pros a chance in the top 6. It might take some persuading. Better to have that happen in pre-season.

  71. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Maybe having Lafreniere and Lavoie as linemates would convince Nuge to stick around… otherwise we aren’t adding a 1OA to the arsenal, we’re just exchanging an older one for a newer one.

    Oh Lord, that’d be a beauty!

  72. fishman says:

    Returned home from Scotland yesterday afternoon so was only able to watch first half of the game before crashing. What I saw seemed pretty similar to what we watched last season. The shocking things are we only have 3 top 6 forwards on this team and all are natural centres! No natural top 6 wingers. Worse is we MAY not have any in the minors either. Have high hopes for Benson but who really knows. How the frick does this happen (Chia!) The goalie situation is very scary with no real heir apparent any time soon. Our top 4 D is a man short and one could argue our top 2 D is at least a man short. We do have help coming on the back end but it’s not ready just yet.

    Very sad reflection on management of this team since purchased by Katz. I believe Holland has done as much as he could given the turd he was handed. Oh the joys of being an Oiler Fan!

    Hunter please put me down for 88 pts. Can’t see this team gaining more than 10 pts over last year.

    JP for 13….

  73. blainer says:

    I was really hoping KH would have made that trade by now for the much needed scoring winger. Looks like most of the RFA’s are getting signed so he is running out of time.

    That lineup as of today is gonna be downright unwatchable IMO.

    I gave up watching after January last season and I really don’t expect to be watching games past October this season.

    Just extremely sad what Chia did to this team .. Especially the Kosk signing.

    Me thinks we will have a three headed monster by the end of October..

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge isn’t skating today (not sure why), nor is Granlund.

    No mention of Jurco or Nygard missing so I assume they are both skating – that’s good, want to see them tomorrow night.

    No Persson, oubviously – no update yet, hope coach has one after practice.

    Bear taking some reps with Klefbom.

  75. McNuge93 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think I’m at peace with the situation. I won’t lose my marbles when we get clobbered. Even last year, I had hope to start the season because of the kids. Optimism is essential to a happy life. Maybe not so much as an Oiler fan.

    Yes, as an Oiler fan optimism starts to build just before July 1 each year. It slowly builds until September when camp opens and then spikes higher through camp as we see all these new players and young prospects. It reaches crescendo levels at the end of Sept. Then the season starts and it’s all over.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    razor:
    LT, I read your take on last nights game at the Athletic and I agree about the lack off defensive conscience on 2L and also Khaira. Nuge has also stated that the player he feels he has the most chemistry with is Khaira. Therefore, I suggest this lineup:
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Chiasson- Sheahan- Archibald
    Jurco- Granlund- Gagner
    I don’t think Gagner has enough to maintain his spot on the second line. 4th line can be the sheltered offensive line that Tippet has been suggesting.

    I’d like to see Khaira with Nuge as well but Khaira seems to fit well on that third line and I think it has the makings on a very nice line that can, at least, saw off the opposition, tough opposition, and maintain and even create momentum with possession – each guy can chip in 10-12 goals too potentially. I also don’t think Chiasson’s game fits on that line.

    Given that, I’d like to see Jurco (or Nygard) as 2LW – preferably Jucro based off of exhibition game play and “skill level”.

    Maybe Gagner can “center” that 4th line with Chiasson and Gagner – that’s a slow line but at least they are all veterans

  77. elgruntus says:

    Pouzar: There is more “talent” on the sidelines if indeed last night was the “dress rehearsal”.
    I got sick every time Stauffer said this yesterday on his show/color commentary.

    As the prophet Gord Downie once said…”no dress rehearsal. this is our life”

  78. Woogie63 says:

    jtblack: I agree Pre season records are irrelevant. But Roster construction and Talent are not.

    Edmonton has a poor roster full of holes, from forward depth to D pairings to question marks in Goal.

    They lack talent on 3 out of 4 forward lines.

    As usual, if everything breaks right, they will compete for a playoff spot. BUT, with any injury triubles or if things don’t break right, they don’t have the depth

    I see this different, our depth is in:

    $1M real NHL players (Grunlund, Archibald, JJ, Kassian)
    At least 6 AHL real prospects (Scarlett, Bouchard, Lagesson/Bear, Marody, Yamamoto, Benson)
    5 Defensemen that will have +200 NHL games this year

    That group in Bakersfield and the under $2M summer signing is the depth, and I think that is way different than other years.

  79. SkatinginSand says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    There is a world of difference between a goalie being supposedly “done” and one who simply does not have the necessary skills. If you bothered to read my post, I gave reasons why Koskinen was unlikely to become even an average starter. You did nothing to refute this, you just screamed, “Fake news!’ Since you obviously think that you know way more about goaltending than I do, try reading the Athletic article, rating every team’s starter, and you will find Koskinen dead last.

  80. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SkatinginSand:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    There is a world of difference between a goalie being supposedly “done” and one who simply does not have the necessary skills. Since you obviously think that you know way more about goaltending than I do, try reading the Athletic article, rating every team’s starter, and you will find Koskinen dead last.

    – When I looked up the goalies form 2017 vs 2018, and found that more than half of them replaced, it was because I was curious about how predictive one season was to the next. That’s a lot of turnover. In both those years a bunch of “bad” goalies became “good”

    – So the math tells me that a goalies performance in one year isn’t a good predictor for the next. I’d bet a lot that if you pulled this Athletic article off next year, you’d have a bunch of goalies that move up and move down. It’s a backwards looking piece: not predicting the future. That’s why I pulled the results to confirm my thesis

    – So if Koski wasn’t good last year and is actually no good, because he doesn’t have the necessary skills: you may be right. I was simply encouraged that good goalies one year are often the not good the year after, and the bad goalies often follow up a poor year with a good one. It happens more than I thought actually: that was what I was getting at.

  81. VanIsleOil says:

    Hunter:

    Can you put me down for 89 points for the OIl and lucky 13 goals for the Big Tongue. Thanks

  82. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar: Jurco has played mainly RW and I believe Burdasov has in the KHL as well.
    We as fans of the Oil have been conditioned to conflate handedness and position.

    I blame Woodguy’s phone.

  83. Munny says:

    The PK so far this pre-season has been very encouraging.

    If there’s sustain there to the regular season, that alone should be very helpful to the win column, and goalie SV percentage.

    The third line as constructed last night is hands-challenged, but they spent most of the time not playing in their own end. Also very encouraging for the GA number.

    I don’t see many nights where Line 1 delivers zero offense. It will happen from time-to-time, but there’s no chance of it being the story of the season.

    As Pouzar has remarked above, there’s some talent sitting on the sidelines. The question is… can the players not playing last night, in particular Nygard and Burdasov, add some offensive punch to the line up without giving up more than they get?

  84. Pouzar says:

    jp: You mean by underlying metrics?

    I am using GF%rel

  85. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I blame Woodguy’s phone.

    hee hee

  86. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan Rishaug
    @TSNRyanRishaug
    ·
    23m
    Persson to miss a week to 10 days with shoulder injury. RNH sore leg, kept off ice today.

    Tippett says he skated up to Bear today and said “knock knock..”. Huge opportunity for Bear right now.

  87. The Mook says:

    Hunter1909,

    Oiler points : 96

    JP goals : 18

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Munny: The third line as constructed last night is hands-challenged, but they spent most of the time not playing in their own end. Also very encouraging for the GA number.

    Hands-challenged but not face-challenged, amirite? Nice goal Sheahan scored with his noggin, driving to the net and “getting” the rebound. That’s what I call having a nose for the net.

    Joking aside, that line had an excellent game, spending lots of time in the attacking zone on the cycle. As a trio their Corsi was +15/-2, SC was +6/-0, HDC +3/-0, with a well-earned +1/-0 goal differential. That’s at 5v5. All three guys also chipped in to the PK with Khaira even getting an assist and all hands keeping a clean slate.

    Addressing the PK was a clear focus of Holland’s summer, adding Granlund, Archibald, Sheahan who collectively averaged around 2:00 SH TOi /GP on their respective NHL teams. Preseason has also seen an increased role for Cave & P.Russell on the unit, with no sign of the likes of Kassian or Chiasson PK-ing even as they are in the line-up. Seems like an upgrade & sure needs to be. Oilers allowed 62 PPG last year, 1 fewer than Chicago, 4 more than anyone else and about 15 worse than the mean. Find a way to cut those 15 goals to simply become league average, & the Oilers have covered off ~a third of their -42 goal differential in about 10% of the actual game time.

    Next step: figure out a way how not to be in the top ten for penalties taken and the bottom ten for penalties drawn.

  89. Pouzar says:

    elgruntus: As the prophet Gord Downie once said…”no dress rehearsal. this is our life”

    Then life sucks!

    Dammnit their pullin me back in!

  90. Pouzar says:

    blainer: That lineup as of today is gonna be downright unwatchable IMO.
    I gave up watching after January last season and I really don’t expect to be watching games past October this season.

    It’s sad…and I want to be optimistic about the new season but dayum.

  91. Munny says:

    PuckPedia‏ @PuckPedia · 42m42 minutes ago

    As Persson is on a 1-way deal, if injured to start year his full $1M Cap Hit counts against #Oilers Cap.

    If player like Yamamoto (2 way, <50 NHL GP last year) is injured to start year, his Cap Charge is based on his Accumulated NHL Cap Hit last year ($303K); so $1.6K charge/day

  92. Eh Team says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Addressing the PK was a clear focus of Holland’s summer, adding Granlund, Archibald, Sheahan who collectively averaged around 2:00 SH TOi /GP on their respective NHL teams.

    That’s why these guys will be in the lineup, regardless of what we think their preseason ‘performance’ is. We have enough candidates to field a useable bottom 6 now. That’s a big improvement over last year.

    The problem is that Gagner and Kassian are in the top 6. Gagner is okay once we have the puck in the opponents end. Otherwise, not so good. Kassian is pretty weak defensively too. If McDavid and Drai are out there together the Oilers should be dominating the GF%. Both those lines need two-way wingers would can handle defensive responsibilities.

    And goaltending is the other huge question mark. Saying that tKoski and Smith are below average, but hey, that just means they will regress to the mean and be average, isn’t the most likely outcome.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    So:

    Persson out for 7-10 with a sore shoulder – good news as its short term.

    Bear will play the next two games – opportunity knocks.

    Nygard may line up with Drai as his center next game.

    Nuge held out of practice with a sore leg but he’s fine – he wasn’t going to Winnipeg any ways.

    ———————-

    They are really trying to push Nygard in to the 2LW (assuming they want to replace Gagner there). I don’t know what more Jurco needed to do in his two games to get a shot up there.

  94. SwedishPoster says:

    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

  95. BONE207 says:

    jp: What’s your over/under till Russell finds his way back to 2RD?

    I have game 2. I don’t know if Benning/Nurse will be a reliable pair. Neither one has looked overly competent so putting them together may be double trouble. Tippet will trust the veteran Russell sooner than later. As for Benning, I saw him starfish the other day on a goal against. I hope it’s not contagious…

  96. Lowetide says:

    razor:
    LT, I read your take on last nights game at the Athletic and I agree about the lack off defensive conscience on 2L and also Khaira. Nuge has also stated that the player he feels he has the most chemistry with is Khaira. Therefore, I suggest this lineup:
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Chiasson- Sheahan- Archibald
    Jurco- Granlund- Gagner
    I don’t think Gagner has enough to maintain his spot on the second line. 4th line can be the sheltered offensive line that Tippet has been suggesting.

    I’d love to see it. Khaira needs to show more offensive ability, and there’s an opportunity here. I’m reminded of a story about Gilles Tremblay when he was a young player for the Montreal Canadiens. “I can check, but goal scoring is my problem” he said to Toe Blake. “Don’t worry,” said the coach. “I can show you where goals are scored.”

  97. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    God. God.

  98. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    Ha!

  99. jtblack says:

    Woogie63: I see this different, our depth is in:

    $1M real NHL players (Grunlund, Archibald, JJ, Kassian)
    Atleast 6 AHL real prospects (Scarlett, Bouchard, Lagesson/Bear, Marody, Yamamoto, Benson)
    5 Defensemen that will have +200 NHL games this year

    That group in Bakersfield and the under $2M summer signing is the depth, and I think that is way different than other years.

    I agree the depth is bubbling under. Thats why I see this as a transition year. Cap opens up slightly next year and more players will be ready for NHL duty.

    We Wait

  100. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    – I’ve got some connections with coaches/players that were/are with team. MacT apparently tried to BigTime them: like I’m the new sheriff in town, I’m going to teach you about pro hockey if you want to be good type stuff”

    – So he rubbed some people the wrong way, wasn’t attuned culturally and the team expects results, and MacT had no one to protect him, so they all realized it wasn’t going to work out long term (I’m being respectful)

    – If only his tenures as coach and GM were based on merit here with the Oil…

  101. Pouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    If yer asking the question…then Yes. 😛

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is absolutely a reasonable chance that Mike Smith will provide 50 or so solid games of goaltending. He dealt with personal issues last year and had a terrible year. A solid bounce back late in the season and the playoffs.

    Two two seasons Prior to last were .914/.916 in 55 games.

    Sure, maybe the cliff has come but I think its reasonable to presume a bounce back of some sort.

    Now Mikko, well, he doesn’t have that track record but what he should have is a veteran partner in net – whether its tips, comfort level, more rest, being pushed or what, hopefully it has some sort of positive effect.

    I fully acknowledge I’m stretching here a bit but I just don’t see Smith being awful like last season.

  103. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    Rapid fire snarky posts over the day.

    *back to lurking*

    I can see it now…

    Jofa helmet strapped tight. Knife in the teeth. Shoe polish on the face & hiding behind a twig which has lost its leaves. The whites of your eyes would give you away.

  104. jp says:

    Pouzar: I am using GF%rel

    Fair enough. There’s a big gap by that metric but I don’t think it tells the whole story.

    Cave
    Minutes (5v5): 563
    GF%: 41.2%
    GF% rel: -4.56
    OZ start%: 44.2% (from NST, different from the PuckIQ numbers)
    TOI vs elites: 22.9%
    P/60: 0.75

    Sheahan
    Minutes (5v5): 913
    GF%: 39.8%
    GF% rel: -16.48
    OZ start%: 34.8%
    TOI vs elites: 27.5%
    P/60: 1.05

    Sheahan 17-18
    Minutes (5v5): 925
    GF%: 49.4% (-1 GF/GA)
    GF% rel: -0.43
    OZ start%: 36.2%
    TOI vs elites: 31.6%
    P/60: 1.68

    IMO there’s a big gap between Sheahan and Cave despite their GF%rel last year and how they’ve looked in camp so far.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    THAT was a quick turn!

  106. Jaxon says:

    Is Burdasov still considered a long shot? If he does make it on the RW, and if Neal is a lock, then that leaves Kassian, Chiasson, Gagner, Archibald, and P Russell battling for 2 RW spots in the lineup. Gagner can still play C or LW, and I suppose the others can play their off wing but at least 2 of them won’t be on the opening night lineup. Based on experience, contact and preseason I would expect Chiasson and Kassian get the most rope. Gagner’s versatility and experience and skill level may keep him in the lineup. That puts Archibald and Russell in the press box or sent down. Interesting preseason.

  107. jp says:

    BONE207: I have game 2. I don’t know if Benning/Nurse will be a reliable pair. Neither one has looked overly competent so putting them together may be double trouble. Tippet will trust the veteran Russell sooner than later. As for Benning, I saw him starfish the other day on a goal against. I hope it’s not contagious…

    With Persson injured I think it’s probable for game 1. Benning hasn’t gotten a sniff or a mention from the coach so he appears to be well down the list of options.

    Klefbom-Russell haven’t actually been bad together, 45.8%GF% but positive Fenwick and shots% with a bad PDO (and fairly tough ZS). Goals and PDO favor Nurse-Russell, but the underlying stuff suggests Klefbom-Russell have been better.

  108. jimmers2 says:

    BONE207,

    BONE207: I can see it now…

    Jofa helmet strapped tight. Knife in the teeth. Shoe polish on the face & hiding behind a twig which has lost its leaves. The whites of your eyes would give you away.

    No problem for Jaroslav; his eyes were cold like stones!

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    How did last night’s game resemble last year (except for defensive breakdowns)?

    Our best forwards last night were in the bottom six – the “3rd line” dominated possession and scored a goal. The fourth line sawed off and had some positive metrics.

    The top 6 played like there were 8 days until the regular season and they were all on the team.

    If the bottom 6 has that type of game, they will win more than they lose.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Am I the only one that saw Jurco good and skilled in his two exhibition games and who thinks his name should be right up there with Nygard for the 2LW job?

  111. gimme shelter says:

    I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
    I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
    Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

  112. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There is absolutely a reasonable chance that Mike Smith will provide 50 or so solid games of goaltending. He dealt with personal issues last year and had a terrible year.A solid bounce back late in the season and the playoffs.

    Two two seasons Prior to last were .914/.916 in 55 games.

    Sure, maybe the cliff has come but I think its reasonable to presume a bounce back of some sort.

    Now Mikko, well, he doesn’t have that track record but what he should have is a veteran partner in net – whether its tips, comfort level, more rest, being pushed or what, hopefully it has some sort of positive effect.

    I fully acknowledge I’m stretching here a bit but I just don’t see Smith being awful like last season.

    “I fully acknowledge I’m stretching here a bit”

    Ever the Optimist!

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    gimme shelter:
    I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
    I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
    Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

    No need to trade. We already know Benning and Russell are capable of playing RD, while one of Lagesson or Manning cover off 3LD. We’ll be fine for now.

  114. jtblack says:

    OCTOBER SCHEDULE:

    10 of 14 Games against Non Playoff teams.

    NOVEMBER SCHEDULE: tougher

    6 of 14 Games Against Non Playoff teams.

    So we should have a decent idea of this team quickly.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

    Beat me too it – thank you.

  116. drglen says:

    Pouzar,

    Shehans pretty good on face of though isn’t he? I think Cave is pretty good too, but if we can get a 55% face off man, that’s worth more offence and less defending.

  117. drglen says:

    In the minority but I’m actually pretty good with our goalies…. especially smith.

  118. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    yes, he was also pretty tenacious as I recall. Too much time has elapsed and he’s kind of out of mind unfairly.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Is Burdasov still considered a long shot? If he does make it on the RW, and if Neal is a lock, then that leaves Kassian, Chiasson, Gagner, Archibald, and P Russell battling for 2 RW spots in the lineup. Gagner can still play C or LW, and I suppose the others can play their off wing but at least 2 of them won’t be on the opening night lineup. Based on experience, contact and preseason I would expect Chiasson and Kassian get the most rope. Gagner’s versatility and experience and skill level may keep him in the lineup. That puts Archibald and Russell in the press box or sent down. Interesting preseason.

    Considering he’s played 13:31 (all situations)…..

    He’s going to have to show ALOT in these last two games to get an actual contract I would think.

    I can’t imagine Archibald not being in the lineup – his PK acumen and speed are coveted assets for this team.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    gimmeshelter:
    I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
    I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
    Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

    I’m 99.9% certain you won’t be seeing Bouchard in the Oilers last two exhibition games.

  121. Darth Tu says:

    So, if you’re Calgary, how do you make the cap work with the Tkachuk signing? Have less players in your squad to start the season?

    They’re barely over, $650k or so by my reckoning.

  122. jp says:

    Munny:
    PuckPedia‏ @PuckPedia · 42m42 minutes ago


    As Persson is on a 1-way deal, if injured to start year his full $1M Cap Hit counts against #Oilers Cap.

    If player like Yamamoto (2 way, <50 NHL GP last year) is injured to start year, his Cap Charge is based on his Accumulated NHL Cap Hit last year ($303K); so $1.6K charge/day

    Does this allow the Oilers to get close enough to the cap to take advantage of some of Brodziak’s LTIR relief? I remain confused about the LTIR/finalizing roster details.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    Darth Tu:
    So, if you’re Calgary, how do you make the cap work with the Tkachuk signing? Have less players in your squad to start the season?

    They’re barely over, $650k or so by my reckoning.

    Send a player down and then recall when Valimaki goes on LTIR.

  124. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So:

    Persson out for 7-10 with a sore shoulder – good news as its short term.

    Bear will play the next two games – opportunity knocks.

    Nygard may line up with Drai as his center next game.

    Nuge held out of practice with a sore leg but he’s fine – he wasn’t going to Winnipeg any ways.

    ———————-

    They are really trying to push Nygard in to the 2LW (assuming they want to replace Gagner there).I don’t know what more Jurco needed to do in his two games to get a shot up there.

    Nygard with Draisaitl could also be an audition for 1LW.

  125. hunter1909 says:

    HURRY BEFORE PRE SEASON ENDS AND THE TRUE OILERS ASTOUND US ALL!!!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  126. kgo says:

    102 points, 13 goals

  127. Gamma Cassiopeiae says:

    hunter1909:
    HURRY BEFORE PRE SEASON ENDS AND THE TRUE OILERS ASTOUND US ALL!!!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    I’ll take 94 points and 17 goals… because there are other goalies out there when these two fail.

  128. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Am I the only one that saw Jurco good and skilled in his two exhibition games and who thinks his name should be right up there with Nygard for the 2LW job?

    I agree. Him not being in the top six after his camp and very solid AHL numbers in the past as well as NHL experience is exactly why so many posters here continue to espouse phrases like Because Oilers or Doing Things Not to Win etc. Jurco has speed, skill, shot and some size (plus a drive I suspect to finally make it). Him not getting a shot is actually ruining the latter part of pre-season for me. It’s totally old hockey man stupid.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Does this allow the Oilers to get close enough to the cap to take advantage of some of Brodziak’s LTIR relief? I remain confused about the LTIR/finalizing roster details.

    No, I don’t think it does – even if they IR Persson for day 1 and call-up the most expensive player in the minors, Marody, I don’t think its gets them within $1.15M to activate an LTIR relief cushion.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    A hockey milestone today.
    Cammi Granato hired by the new Seattle franchise as the first female pro scout in the league.
    I would imagine her husband Ray Ferraro may have some unofficial input into the next expansion draft.

  131. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: No, I don’t think it does – even if they IR Persson for day 1 and call-up the most expensive player in the minors, Marody, I don’t think its gets them within $1.15M to activate an LTIR relief cushion.

    Well they’re $1.533M from the cap right now. I guess my original question, not explicitly stated, was where does Persson “go” if he’s injured. He counts against the cap once the season starts, so does the roster expand to 24 effectively once he’s on IR? Or does the limit remain 23 for cap compliance? So that they need to keep him among the 23 even though they know he’s injured and will need to be replaced immediately (that seems unlikely since it could in some circumstances necessitate waiving a player a team plans to use to replace the already injured player).

    If the roster effectively expands to 24 players, still counting Persson’s salary, then adding Bear to replace him brings them to ~$800k from the cap. So they could get a little relief from Brodziak in this case. And there’s potential to shuffle some more expensive players in short term to get even closer to the cap if this is an option at all (Bouchard vs Bear is an extra $170k for instance).

    But maybe this isn’t how it works at all.

  132. Jordan says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A hockey milestone today.
    Cammi Granato hired by the new Seattle franchise as the first female pro scout in the league.
    I would imagine her husband Ray Ferraro may have some unofficial input into the next expansion draft.

    I think it might be the other way around, and Cammi’s scouting reports might not be available to Ray when he’s working anymore…

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Well they’re $1.533M from the cap right now. I guess my original question, not explicitly stated, was where does Persson “go” if he’s injured. He counts against the cap once the season starts, so does the roster expand to 24 effectively once he’s on IR? Or does the limit remain 23 for cap compliance? So that they need to keep him among the 23 even though they know he’s injured and will need to be replaced immediately (that seems unlikely since it could in some circumstances necessitate waiving a player a team plans to use to replace the already injured player).

    If the roster effectively expands to 24 players, still counting Persson’s salary, then adding Bear to replace him brings them to ~$800k from the cap. So they could get a little relief from Brodziak in this case. And there’s potential to shuffle some more expensive players in short term to get even closer to the cap if this is an option at all (Bouchard vs Bear is an extra $170k for instance).

    But maybe this isn’t how it works at all.

    (A) They can leave Persson on the 23 man roster (and his cap hit stays).

    or

    (B) They can place Persson on IR which takes him off the 23 man roster (but his cap hit stays).

    With option (B), they can call someone up to fill the 23 man roster while Persson is on IR (for an additional cap hit).

    You are correct, if they do this and get within $800K of the cap, and then place Brodz on IR, they will get small cushion to go over the cap of just over $300K.

    This will stay for the year.

    ————————–

    With that said, something doesn’t add up right with capfriendly’s numbers.

    If you add up the 14/7/2 plus buyout hits plus retained plus Brodz it doesn’t get you to the number they provide (around $80M).

    Further in order to use that LTIR relief in this situation, that 23 man roster on day 1 (plus Persson on IR) needs to be cap compliant including Brodz, before placing Brodz on LTIR.

    What I’m getting at here is that, in order to get the relief, they need to account for Brodz in the intial day 1 cap compliance and, when doing so, we won’t be close enough to the cap to get any relief (even if Persson is on IR and a replacement is called up.

    Unless I’m doing the math wrong.

  134. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did you include Brodziak in your calculation? I just did it and the 14/7/2 + retained + buyouts + Brodziak comes out to the $79.967M shown on CapFriendly (that is $1.533M under the cap).

    So if your take is correct and they can put Persson on IR and replace him on the roster, a paper transaction of Bouchard instead of Bear (who’d be in the actual opening night lineup) would get them to within $639k of the cap. Then Brodziak to LTIR would open up an extra $510k for the season. Not earth shattering, but not a bad thing.

    That’s the only easy transaction that wouldn’t expose a player to waivers, but if Burdasov signs and/or if Haas makes the roster over Jurco or Cave that would add more to the cap and allow the team to claim more of Brodziak’s LTIR relief.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Did you include Brodziak in your calculation? I just did it and the 14/7/2 + retained + buyouts + Brodziak comes out to the $79.967M shown on CapFriendly (that is $1.533M under the cap).

    There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

    That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

    In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

    Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

  136. Jaxon says:

    Not sure if this lines up with everyone eyes, but here is an attempt to list the forwards in order:
    Elite:
    McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins
    Wow, it gets tough from here on….
    Players with at least 2 straight seasons solely in the NHL:
    Neal, Chiasson, Granlund, Sheahan, Kassian, Khaira
    Skilled, versatile very with over 800 NHL games who scores close to .5pts/gp:
    Gagner
    That brings us to 10 forwards who are pretty sure to be in the lineup.

    3 fringe NHLers:
    Archibald played NHL-only last season for the first time and his career pts/GP (.3) is slightly higher than Jurco’s (.25), who didn’t play in the NHL last season, and only played part of the year prior. Jurco’s only full-time NHL season was ’14-’15. Cave is the youngest of the group at 24 so there is still a reasonable expectation for improvement, but he hasn’t scored all that much (.14 pts/GP NHL) at any level and he still hasn’t made the NHL on a full-time basis. They’ve all had decent camps, but there isn’t a lot separating them.

    3 Europeans:
    Nygard and Haas have contracts but they haven’t shown all that much so far. Nygard looked decent in his last game and Haas has shown some signs of improvement but it might be too little, too late for him. There is ( is there?) a possibility for them to get sent down and come back up in a month after they adjust to the North American game.
    Burdasov is a wild card and slightly behind the eight ball after joining camp so late. He looked quite promising in his one exhibition game, though, and his numbers suggest he might have the biggest upside of anyone outside the top 3. Goal NHLes of 32, 24, and 25 in his last 3 seasons in the KHL. Has decent speed and is physical enough that the transition might be less of an issue. Can he be signed to an NHL contract? Does a trade have to happen first? How do they see more of him to make an informed decision before the season starts? It would be a shame if he pulled a Versteeg and signed elsewhere to only light it up and become a force in the NHL.

    AHL player who has earned a long look:
    Patrick Russell. He’s had a textbook camp on how to do everything you can to make it.

    Do we agree on…
    McDavid Draisaitl Nugent-Hopkins
    Neal Chiasson Sheahan
    Granlund Kassian Khaira
    Gagner
    … as 10 sure things?
    Although Granlund has done as much as he can to move off that list, in my opinion. But he is probably still given the benefit of the doubt as a vet who was just signed by the GM.

    Which 2 of the following make it?
    Archibald, Jurco, Cave
    Nygard, Haas, Burdasov
    Russell

    Cave can play C, and was in the NHL last season and has played well in the preseason, so he may have a leg up. Archibald has been a buzzsaw and played all year in the NHL last season, so maybe he grabs the other spot.

    That leaves Jurco, Nygard, Haas, Russell, and Burdasov out of the opening night lineup.

    Who is sent down, sent home, sent packing or in the press box?

    Jurco and Russell make sense as press box sitters as they don’t need to learn more, they just have to earn their keep at this point.

    Would Nygard, Haas, and Burdasov (assuming they even sign him) accept an assignment to Bakersfield? And, if so, for how long before they go back to Europe? I believe Haas indicated that he’d be fine for about a month. I think a trade might have to happen before they sign Burdasov.

  137. drglen says:

    Looks like Bear gets the nod with Klefbom

    (yay)

    Archibald is a lock. shehan, hasn’t blown away but they brought him in to defend and win draws.. which I think he will do. Khaira is the guy who has to start moving the needle either by checking, possession, or …. actually scoring? ( khaira also has value in a trade)

    Burdy probably starts in AHL or offered to do so.. (unless he scores 3)

    I think he’s gonna start with gagne and slide jurco and nyggard down to minors for a few games.. see what happens. ( if they can do that)

    Same for hass… call up if 4th line crumbles.

    you’d have to say Chaisson is maybe a bit overpaid but also a really good asset to have… I mean, he’s good, and can play in any line, no ego, makes no difference.

  138. ausadian says:

    hunter1909,

    93 pts, 19 goals

  139. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

    That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

    In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

    Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

    Right, that makes sense, sort of.

    So if I’m understanding correctly a team can put a player on IR before the season starts (Persson) and add a player to replace him with both players counting against the cap (an effective roster of 24 players). That’s what I understood you to say above, please correct me if i’m off base.

    But if a player is on LTIR, or will be placed on LTIR (Brodziak) they can’t be replaced in the same way? Maybe Brodziak is/could be simply on IR (not LTIR) right now, and will be transferred to LTIR status once the season starts? Then, following the Persson logic, his roster spot could be filled while his salary still counts against the cap, making the effective roster 25 players (including the Persson AND Brodziak salaries, plus their replacements).

    If this is true then the Oilers will be able to get some ($500k+) LTIR relief for Brodziak this season. Unless I’m missing something .

  140. Jaxon says:

    Draisaitl / McDavid / Kassian
    Khaira / Nugent-Hopkins / Neal
    Granlund / Sheahan / Chiasson
    Cave / Gagner / Archibald
    Jurco / P Russell

    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Benning
    Russell / Bear
    Lagesson

    Koskinen
    Smith

    Persson inj
    ___________________________

    AHL
    Nygard / Haas / Burdasov
    Benson / Marody / Hebig (Yamamoto inj)
    Gambardella / Malone / Currie
    Safin / McLeod / Maksimov

    Jones / Manning
    Samorukov / Bouchard
    Lower / ? (Day inj)
    ?

    Starrett
    Skinner or Wells

    Persson conditioning stunt in the AHL?

  141. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp,

    OriginalPouzar,

    The Oilers don’t have to put Brodziak on LTIR on day 1, it’s quite likely they just assign him to IR and stay 1.55 under the cap (or whatever number you guys are discussing) and run with that much cap space for the time being

    IIRC, you can retroactively place a player on LTIR, or subsequently change the players status from IR to LTIR later iin the season if it’s advantageous to do so ..ie:if you make a trade and take on more salary at a future date, or if the injuries pile up and you have to recall player(s) from the AHL, you can push your cap hit to the limit(or as close to it) and THEN put Brodziak on LTIR and subsequently claim the cushion

  142. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp,

    Yes, effectively any team is allowed to have 24 or 25 on the roster (or more if the injuries pile up), but you can only have 23 players on the “active” roster, and if you’re not on the active roster, your status has to be adjusted accordingly….ie: placed on IR, or LTIR, or on waivers on your way to the AHL, or assigned directly to the AHL if you’re waiver exempt

    The ‘active roster” is a moving target daily…if a player’s status changes, you have to assign him elsewhere

  143. jp says:

    Jaxon,

    1) I agree with your 10 sure things.

    2) I’d put Archibald in that group rather than the fringe NHLers. First, I believe he’s been in the NHL full time since January 2018, so 1.5 seasons. Second, he has a “role” in Tippet’s system. He’s been 3RW with Sheahan exclusively thus far, he’ll sure as hell start the season there (whether he keeps the spot all year or not).

    3) Burdasov is in tough due to when he arrived, but the absolutely can sign him if they want. Something that pays him ~$1M per is a non-issue since he would be taking a spot from someone making similar money. If he shows well in the next 2 games I’d be inclined to give him the Nygard/Haas deal since it doesn’t really negatively effect the team in any significant way.

    4) “Which 2 of the following make it? Archibald, Jurco, Cave, Nygard, Haas, Burdasov, Russell”. Well there should be 4 spots on the big club, so 4 will “make it” and not need to be cut/exposed to waivers. I think Archibald and Nygard are locks, with the other 2 being Cave and Jurco as a guess. But who knows. As you note it’s funny that all the oldest guys (the Euros) are/would be waiver exempt, while the younger group would need to clear waivers to be sent down.

  144. Jaxon says:

    Of the forwards and D who does Holland see as must vulnerable to a trade?

    My guess: Gagner, Kassian, Cave, Russell, and Benning.

    All players procured by the previous regime and fairly replaceable in the current roster.

    Gagner is a scoring vet in a precarious position. His cap hit is still pretty big. He spent time in the minors last year. Does Tippet like him? I think he might. Gagner was his top scoring forward the year he played for him in Arizona. Hard contact to unload so he might stay.

    I think Kassian is well liked and might be seen as a bit of glue on the team. He showed we’ll at the end of last season on the top line and will likely get a chance there to start the season. He also brings an aspect that only Nurse and Khaira can duplicate. I don’t think they trade him.

    Cave was an inside knowledge acquisition by Chiarelli, so Holland might be more inclined to let him go but Cave has definitely turned heads at camp and is young enough to improve. He won’t do much to move the needle in a trade but he could get picked up on waivers if they won’t to dangle him to get rid of one of their 50 contacts.

    Kris Russell. If Tippett sticks to lefty righty, then 3rd pair $4M Russell may be most vulnerable. It would be great to unload his $4M cap hit as well. The stumbling block may be his NMC but if he sees his I’ve time being limited to 3rd pairing he may relax that a bit. I bet they could find a partner with one of his 10 teams.

    From Holland’s POV, Benning may be the player he’d most like to be rid of. There isn’t a player in the NHL with more of a connection to the old regime. Benning is basically family to Chiarelli. Probably feels like having a spy in your midst. Maybe Holland can swing a trade with STL to reunite them. I like Benning. I think he’s a good 3rd pair who can play up on the 2nd pair and read water with the right partner. And I don’t think they should trade him. At least not until someone on the team can move into the 2RD position and someone else can move into the 3RD position. That’s a lot of waiting, though. Maybe we see a Benning plus ???? for one of Faulk/Parayko/ Pietrangelo. Please don’t let it be Faulk!!

  145. Jaxon says:

    jp: 4) “Which 2 of the following make it? Archibald, Jurco, Cave, Nygard, Haas, Burdasov, Russell”. Well there should be 4 spots on the big club, so 4 will “make it” and not need to be cut/exposed to waivers. I think Archibald and Nygard are locks, with the other 2 being Cave and Jurco as a guess. But who knows. As you note it’s funny that all the oldest guys (the Euros) are/would be waiver exempt, while the younger group would need to clear waivers to be sent down.

    We’ll said. The consensus seems to be that Archibald is a lock and your probably right. Yes I realize they don’t have to cut 2 of those players but I’m trying to figure out who plays on opening night, not who makes the opening 23 man roster. But as far as the 23 man goes, it does make some sense to send the Europeans to the AHL as they are waiver exempt and would benefit the most from playing
    lots of pro hockey instead of sitting in the press box.

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

    That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

    In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

    Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

    If they sign Burdasov for $1M and put Brodziak on IR, while bringing up the most expensive defenseman (Bouchard) in a paper transaction, that brings the roster to within $313k of the limit. Once the season starts they can LTIR Brodziak and then switch

    Bouchard for Bear
    Manning for Lagesson
    Burdasov for Cave

    and end up with $1.67M in cap space going forward. When Persson comes back and Bear gets sent down they’ll have $2.39M in cap space.

    Edit: I had Haas down and Jurco up prior to the LTIR move, if we switched these guys the cap hit comes to $81.361M, just $138,834 below the upper limit. Thus LTIR would net $1,011,166 in cap relief.

    If they want to get as close as possible they would leave Bouchard down and bring up Marody in a paper move, that would add $30,833 to the cap and the resulting LTIR relief, for a total of $1,041,999. Lots of juking, but the result is maximum relief so it’s certainly worth it.

  147. ArmchairGM says:

    … cont…

    that means an opening roster as follows:

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Nygard – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
    Khaira – Sheahan – Archibald
    Granlund – Gagner – Chiasson
    Burdasov ($1M) – Haas – Marody = $48,175,000 for 15 forwards

    Nurse – Larsson
    Klefbom – Benning
    Manning – Russell = $19,683,666 for 6 defensemen

    Koskinen
    Smith = $6,500,000 for 2 goalies

    Brodziak – IR
    Persson – IR = $2,150,000

    Lucic – RST = $750,000

    Pouliot – BO
    Gryba – BO
    Sekera – BO = $4,133,333

    Total = $81,391,999
    Cap space = $108,001

    Now, if Holland is smart he’ll sign Burdasov to a $1,108,001 x 1 deal instead of the $1,000,000 I had figured on above. If he needs to be moved to the minors, that deal would only result in a $33k cap hit, which isn’t going to negatively affect anything. I’d rather the $33k cap hit than lose $108k in LTIR relief.

  148. jp says:

    Jaxon: We’ll said. The consensus seems to be that Archibald is a lock and your probably right. Yes I realize they don’t have to cut 2 of those players but I’m trying to figure out who plays on opening night, not who makes the opening 23 man roster. But as far as the 23 man goes, it does make some sense to send the Europeans to the AHL as they are waiver exempt and would benefit the most from playing
    lots of pro hockey instead of sitting in the press box.

    Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

    And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

    And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

    I agree about Granny – I don’t think he’s likely to be among the starting 12.

  150. Jaxon says:

    jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

    And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

    Yeah, I’m not sure how much rope a vet like Granlund gets. He’s played 199 games in the past 3 seasons with 66 points or about .33 pts/gp. In preseason he has been invisible. He’s definitely not playing himself into a good spot on the lineup and may wind up in the press box. I believe they generally let vets come up to speed at their own pace (within limits?), but I’m not sure he’s in that category of vet to get that much rope. He’s only more of a sure thing because he has 3 years of solely NHL experience so may have ‘earned his stripes’ so to speak. That’s something much of his competition for a roster spot can’t claim and Granlund is a Holland product so he has that going for him too.

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

    And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

    https://theathletic.com/1241723/2019/09/25/assessing-the-oilers-roster-as-the-final-positional-battles-are-sorted-out/

  152. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Yeah, I’m not sure how much rope a vet like Granlund gets. He’s played 199 games in the past 3 seasons with 66 points or about .33 pts/gp. In preseason he has been invisible. He’s definitely not playing himself into a good spot on the lineup and may wind up in the press box. I believe they generally let vets come up to speed at their own pace (within limits?), but I’m not sure he’s in that category of vet to get that much rope. He’s only more of a sure thing because he has 3 years of solely NHL experience so may have ‘earned his stripes’ so to speak. That’s something much of his competition for a roster spot can’t claim and Granlund is a Holland product so he has that going for him too.

    “Near lock”

    https://theathletic.com/1241723/2019/09/25/assessing-the-oilers-roster-as-the-final-positional-battles-are-sorted-out/

  153. Pouzar says:

    “Vets” and “rope” are what has been killing this organization for years now.
    I may lose this bottom 6 scoring bet with TheHop.

  154. Abbeef says:

    Pouzar:
    “Vets” and “rope” are what has been killing this organization for years now.
    I may lose this bottom 6 scoring bet with TheHop.

    I’d argue it’s the opposite. Having young players play over their head based on preseason results has been the problem imo. How many successful teams cut NHL veterans based on preseason?

  155. Pouzar says:

    Abbeef: I’d argue it’s the opposite.Having young players play over their head based on preseason results has been the problem imo.How many successful teams cut NHL veterans based on preseason?

    I should have clarified…”Vets past their best before date or who just plain aren’t very good”.

  156. Abbeef says:

    Pouzar,

    Fair enough.

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