Opening night lineup coming into view

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are 2-3-0 in preseason with two games to go before the end of the exhibition schedule. The club’s overall goal differential (13-16) includes a five-on-five differential of -1 (10-11). The Oilers badly need to improve that ratio, and to grab secondary scoring from depth lines.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ bottom-six forwards, penalty kill shine in loss to Arizona Coyotes
  • Lowetide: Injuries and prospects: A brief Oilers history of devastating derailments
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
  • Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
  • Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
  • Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
  • Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Brandon Manning on how his contract is hurting him, proving his worth at camp and being a mentor
  • Jonathan Willis: Four players who helped, three who hurt their Oilers hopes in Edmonton’s second preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How an offseason adding more pop in his stick and skates has James Neal primed for first Oilers season
  • Lowetide: A big night for Oilers defencemen Joel Persson, William Lagesson and Evan Bouchard
  • Lowetide: Handicapping Oilers prospect progress: The development of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
  • Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

LAST NIGHT’S GAME (5×5)

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian. 11:25, 7-8 Corsi for, 6-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 1-2 HDSC.

Connor McDavid had a gigantic chance early, but nothing rhymed most of the night. Who cares? 10 fingers and toes and he remains the fastest train on record. I think he might get the Saturday game.

Leon Draisaitl had the roar and his partner in crime, but as the game wore along his attention to detail drifted. Still made some great plays. Saturday’s lineup will be interesting.

Zack Kassian seemed the most engaged of the top trio, he got a nice chance in the first period off an errant pass.

LINE 2 Sam Gagner-RNH-James Neal. 10:22 together, 12-10 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 0-3 goals, 1-3 HDSC.

Sam Gagner is terrific with the puck on his stick, great passer and fabulous vision. He also made a nice defensive play. However, this needs to be an outscoring line and I’m not sure No. 2 LW is his sweet spot.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a shorty, his snapshot is even better this year. The goal against is a perfect example of why he needs better support. 93 lost a small struggle for puck possession in the neutral zone and Crouse had a nice lane to the net. Playing without the puck is a lot about positioning, and Nuge is going to be alone a lot this year.

James Neal had three shots and one HDSC (high danger scoring chance) but wasn’t a factor in the game. He’s a tricky fellow to mark, because in the middle of not doing anything he’ll score. Didn’t have a big night.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald 8:26 together, 15-2 Corsi, 10-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC. Write this line in stone. My piece in The Athletic goes into a little more detail on Khaira, I believe in this player.

LINE 4 Patrick Russell-Colby Cave-Alex Chiasson were 6:45, 13-9 Corsi together, 10-6 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC. Cave had both HD chances, I like him but he’s going to spoil 25 tap-ins. Russell has surely made the team and Chiasson must be wondering how he landed with this crew after a 22-goal season.

DEFENSE (5X5)

Darnell Nurse-Adam Larsson were 7-12 Corsi in 12:01, 5-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Nurse pinched when he would have been better to stay and the duo doesn’t have a crisp outlet passer among them.

On the other hand, Oscar Klefbom-Adam Larsson were 12-4 in 6:10, 8-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-1 HDSC. The GA was a great pass to the wrong team, Larsson sending it for an Oilers forward who zigged when he should have zagged (is my guess). This pairing is damned good.

Oscar Klefbom-Joel Persson went 5-6 Corsi in 6:01 before Persson’s injury. 4-5 shots, no goals, I thought Persson performed well with the puck and in puck pursuit. Needs to work on his board battles.

Kris Russell-Matt Benning went 7-2 Corsi in 6:30, 3-2 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC. Benning hammered the puck senseless and hit the post in the first, man he can unleash the hounds. Russell looked fine LH side on the first day back to work.

Darnell Nurse-Matt Benning were meh in 4:22, 3-4 Corsi, 1-3 shots and 1-2 HDSC.

I thought Mike Smith played well, Koskinen made some big stops too. Goalies weren’t the culprit last night. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick.

CERTAIN OILERS [18]

The 18 men we started out with remain, Granlund is apparently nicked up so he’ll be on the opening night roster but possibly on IR. Neal moving to RW complicates things, but coach Tippett is moving Gagner et al as opposed to deploying bubble men.

UNCERTAIN OILERS [9]

Evan Bouchard was sent down last night, that’s what the Oilers should have done with Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi. Bouchard is probably NHL-ready, but for an organization that has capsized so many prospects on this trip across the AHL to NHL waters, I’m fine with 20 games in California for this player. Persson’s injury may help both Lagesson and Bear.

DISTANT BELLS [3]

Shane Starrett also sent out, and with Logan Day requiring surgery and Burdasov arriving so late, we’re down to Manning. My suspicion is that Lagesson wins the No. 7 job, but Manning is still in camp.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, there’s a lot going on. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me at 10:20, we’ll chat about last night’s game and the roster cuts. Kent Wilson will pop in at 10:40 from The Athletic to talk about the new Matt Tkachuk deal. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will chat football just after 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Abbeef

Pouzar,

Fair enough.

Pouzar

Abbeef: I’d argue it’s the opposite.Having young players play over their head based on preseason results has been the problem imo.How many successful teams cut NHL veterans based on preseason?

I should have clarified…”Vets past their best before date or who just plain aren’t very good”.

Abbeef

Pouzar:
“Vets” and “rope” are what has been killing this organization for years now.
I may lose this bottom 6 scoring bet with TheHop.

I’d argue it’s the opposite. Having young players play over their head based on preseason results has been the problem imo. How many successful teams cut NHL veterans based on preseason?

Pouzar

“Vets” and “rope” are what has been killing this organization for years now.
I may lose this bottom 6 scoring bet with TheHop.

jp
ArmchairGM

Jaxon: Yeah, I’m not sure how much rope a vet like Granlund gets. He’s played 199 games in the past 3 seasons with 66 points or about .33 pts/gp. In preseason he has been invisible. He’s definitely not playing himself into a good spot on the lineup and may wind up in the press box. I believe they generally let vets come up to speed at their own pace (within limits?), but I’m not sure he’s in that category of vet to get that much rope. He’s only more of a sure thing because he has 3 years of solely NHL experience so may have ‘earned his stripes’ so to speak. That’s something much of his competition for a roster spot can’t claim and Granlund is a Holland product so he has that going for him too.

“Near lock”

https://theathletic.com/1241723/2019/09/25/assessing-the-oilers-roster-as-the-final-positional-battles-are-sorted-out/

ArmchairGM

jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

https://theathletic.com/1241723/2019/09/25/assessing-the-oilers-roster-as-the-final-positional-battles-are-sorted-out/

Jaxon

jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

Yeah, I’m not sure how much rope a vet like Granlund gets. He’s played 199 games in the past 3 seasons with 66 points or about .33 pts/gp. In preseason he has been invisible. He’s definitely not playing himself into a good spot on the lineup and may wind up in the press box. I believe they generally let vets come up to speed at their own pace (within limits?), but I’m not sure he’s in that category of vet to get that much rope. He’s only more of a sure thing because he has 3 years of solely NHL experience so may have ‘earned his stripes’ so to speak. That’s something much of his competition for a roster spot can’t claim and Granlund is a Holland product so he has that going for him too.

ArmchairGM

jp: Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

I agree about Granny – I don’t think he’s likely to be among the starting 12.

jp

Jaxon: We’ll said. The consensus seems to be that Archibald is a lock and your probably right. Yes I realize they don’t have to cut 2 of those players but I’m trying to figure out who plays on opening night, not who makes the opening 23 man roster. But as far as the 23 man goes, it does make some sense to send the Europeans to the AHL as they are waiver exempt and would benefit the most from playing
lots of pro hockey instead of sitting in the press box.

Yeah it’s far less clear who’ll be in the opening night lineup (and it’s not clear who will make the roster in the first place). I’m not so sure the 10 are locks to be on the ice opening night, though I don’t see any of them being cut from the team. If Granlund doesn’t make strides over the next 2 games for instance I could see him starting out in the PB.

And yes, sending all the Europeans to Bakersfield would certainly kick the cam down the road some.

jp

Gerta Rauss,

Thanks.

ArmchairGM

… cont…

that means an opening roster as follows:

Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
Nygard – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
Khaira – Sheahan – Archibald
Granlund – Gagner – Chiasson
Burdasov ($1M) – Haas – Marody = $48,175,000 for 15 forwards

Nurse – Larsson
Klefbom – Benning
Manning – Russell = $19,683,666 for 6 defensemen

Koskinen
Smith = $6,500,000 for 2 goalies

Brodziak – IR
Persson – IR = $2,150,000

Lucic – RST = $750,000

Pouliot – BO
Gryba – BO
Sekera – BO = $4,133,333

Total = $81,391,999
Cap space = $108,001

Now, if Holland is smart he’ll sign Burdasov to a $1,108,001 x 1 deal instead of the $1,000,000 I had figured on above. If he needs to be moved to the minors, that deal would only result in a $33k cap hit, which isn’t going to negatively affect anything. I’d rather the $33k cap hit than lose $108k in LTIR relief.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

If they sign Burdasov for $1M and put Brodziak on IR, while bringing up the most expensive defenseman (Bouchard) in a paper transaction, that brings the roster to within $313k of the limit. Once the season starts they can LTIR Brodziak and then switch

Bouchard for Bear
Manning for Lagesson
Burdasov for Cave

and end up with $1.67M in cap space going forward. When Persson comes back and Bear gets sent down they’ll have $2.39M in cap space.

Edit: I had Haas down and Jurco up prior to the LTIR move, if we switched these guys the cap hit comes to $81.361M, just $138,834 below the upper limit. Thus LTIR would net $1,011,166 in cap relief.

If they want to get as close as possible they would leave Bouchard down and bring up Marody in a paper move, that would add $30,833 to the cap and the resulting LTIR relief, for a total of $1,041,999. Lots of juking, but the result is maximum relief so it’s certainly worth it.

Jaxon

jp: 4) “Which 2 of the following make it? Archibald, Jurco, Cave, Nygard, Haas, Burdasov, Russell”. Well there should be 4 spots on the big club, so 4 will “make it” and not need to be cut/exposed to waivers. I think Archibald and Nygard are locks, with the other 2 being Cave and Jurco as a guess. But who knows. As you note it’s funny that all the oldest guys (the Euros) are/would be waiver exempt, while the younger group would need to clear waivers to be sent down.

We’ll said. The consensus seems to be that Archibald is a lock and your probably right. Yes I realize they don’t have to cut 2 of those players but I’m trying to figure out who plays on opening night, not who makes the opening 23 man roster. But as far as the 23 man goes, it does make some sense to send the Europeans to the AHL as they are waiver exempt and would benefit the most from playing
lots of pro hockey instead of sitting in the press box.

Jaxon

Of the forwards and D who does Holland see as must vulnerable to a trade?

My guess: Gagner, Kassian, Cave, Russell, and Benning.

All players procured by the previous regime and fairly replaceable in the current roster.

Gagner is a scoring vet in a precarious position. His cap hit is still pretty big. He spent time in the minors last year. Does Tippet like him? I think he might. Gagner was his top scoring forward the year he played for him in Arizona. Hard contact to unload so he might stay.

I think Kassian is well liked and might be seen as a bit of glue on the team. He showed we’ll at the end of last season on the top line and will likely get a chance there to start the season. He also brings an aspect that only Nurse and Khaira can duplicate. I don’t think they trade him.

Cave was an inside knowledge acquisition by Chiarelli, so Holland might be more inclined to let him go but Cave has definitely turned heads at camp and is young enough to improve. He won’t do much to move the needle in a trade but he could get picked up on waivers if they won’t to dangle him to get rid of one of their 50 contacts.

Kris Russell. If Tippett sticks to lefty righty, then 3rd pair $4M Russell may be most vulnerable. It would be great to unload his $4M cap hit as well. The stumbling block may be his NMC but if he sees his I’ve time being limited to 3rd pairing he may relax that a bit. I bet they could find a partner with one of his 10 teams.

From Holland’s POV, Benning may be the player he’d most like to be rid of. There isn’t a player in the NHL with more of a connection to the old regime. Benning is basically family to Chiarelli. Probably feels like having a spy in your midst. Maybe Holland can swing a trade with STL to reunite them. I like Benning. I think he’s a good 3rd pair who can play up on the 2nd pair and read water with the right partner. And I don’t think they should trade him. At least not until someone on the team can move into the 2RD position and someone else can move into the 3RD position. That’s a lot of waiting, though. Maybe we see a Benning plus ???? for one of Faulk/Parayko/ Pietrangelo. Please don’t let it be Faulk!!

jp

Jaxon,

1) I agree with your 10 sure things.

2) I’d put Archibald in that group rather than the fringe NHLers. First, I believe he’s been in the NHL full time since January 2018, so 1.5 seasons. Second, he has a “role” in Tippet’s system. He’s been 3RW with Sheahan exclusively thus far, he’ll sure as hell start the season there (whether he keeps the spot all year or not).

3) Burdasov is in tough due to when he arrived, but the absolutely can sign him if they want. Something that pays him ~$1M per is a non-issue since he would be taking a spot from someone making similar money. If he shows well in the next 2 games I’d be inclined to give him the Nygard/Haas deal since it doesn’t really negatively effect the team in any significant way.

4) “Which 2 of the following make it? Archibald, Jurco, Cave, Nygard, Haas, Burdasov, Russell”. Well there should be 4 spots on the big club, so 4 will “make it” and not need to be cut/exposed to waivers. I think Archibald and Nygard are locks, with the other 2 being Cave and Jurco as a guess. But who knows. As you note it’s funny that all the oldest guys (the Euros) are/would be waiver exempt, while the younger group would need to clear waivers to be sent down.

Gerta Rauss

jp,

Yes, effectively any team is allowed to have 24 or 25 on the roster (or more if the injuries pile up), but you can only have 23 players on the “active” roster, and if you’re not on the active roster, your status has to be adjusted accordingly….ie: placed on IR, or LTIR, or on waivers on your way to the AHL, or assigned directly to the AHL if you’re waiver exempt

The ‘active roster” is a moving target daily…if a player’s status changes, you have to assign him elsewhere

Gerta Rauss

jp,

OriginalPouzar,

The Oilers don’t have to put Brodziak on LTIR on day 1, it’s quite likely they just assign him to IR and stay 1.55 under the cap (or whatever number you guys are discussing) and run with that much cap space for the time being

IIRC, you can retroactively place a player on LTIR, or subsequently change the players status from IR to LTIR later iin the season if it’s advantageous to do so ..ie:if you make a trade and take on more salary at a future date, or if the injuries pile up and you have to recall player(s) from the AHL, you can push your cap hit to the limit(or as close to it) and THEN put Brodziak on LTIR and subsequently claim the cushion

Jaxon

Draisaitl / McDavid / Kassian
Khaira / Nugent-Hopkins / Neal
Granlund / Sheahan / Chiasson
Cave / Gagner / Archibald
Jurco / P Russell

Klefbom / Larsson
Nurse / Benning
Russell / Bear
Lagesson

Koskinen
Smith

Persson inj
___________________________

AHL
Nygard / Haas / Burdasov
Benson / Marody / Hebig (Yamamoto inj)
Gambardella / Malone / Currie
Safin / McLeod / Maksimov

Jones / Manning
Samorukov / Bouchard
Lower / ? (Day inj)
?

Starrett
Skinner or Wells

Persson conditioning stunt in the AHL?

jp

OriginalPouzar: There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

Right, that makes sense, sort of.

So if I’m understanding correctly a team can put a player on IR before the season starts (Persson) and add a player to replace him with both players counting against the cap (an effective roster of 24 players). That’s what I understood you to say above, please correct me if i’m off base.

But if a player is on LTIR, or will be placed on LTIR (Brodziak) they can’t be replaced in the same way? Maybe Brodziak is/could be simply on IR (not LTIR) right now, and will be transferred to LTIR status once the season starts? Then, following the Persson logic, his roster spot could be filled while his salary still counts against the cap, making the effective roster 25 players (including the Persson AND Brodziak salaries, plus their replacements).

If this is true then the Oilers will be able to get some ($500k+) LTIR relief for Brodziak this season. Unless I’m missing something .

ausadian

hunter1909,

93 pts, 19 goals

drglen

Looks like Bear gets the nod with Klefbom

(yay)

Archibald is a lock. shehan, hasn’t blown away but they brought him in to defend and win draws.. which I think he will do. Khaira is the guy who has to start moving the needle either by checking, possession, or …. actually scoring? ( khaira also has value in a trade)

Burdy probably starts in AHL or offered to do so.. (unless he scores 3)

I think he’s gonna start with gagne and slide jurco and nyggard down to minors for a few games.. see what happens. ( if they can do that)

Same for hass… call up if 4th line crumbles.

you’d have to say Chaisson is maybe a bit overpaid but also a really good asset to have… I mean, he’s good, and can play in any line, no ego, makes no difference.

Jaxon

Not sure if this lines up with everyone eyes, but here is an attempt to list the forwards in order:
Elite:
McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins
Wow, it gets tough from here on….
Players with at least 2 straight seasons solely in the NHL:
Neal, Chiasson, Granlund, Sheahan, Kassian, Khaira
Skilled, versatile very with over 800 NHL games who scores close to .5pts/gp:
Gagner
That brings us to 10 forwards who are pretty sure to be in the lineup.

3 fringe NHLers:
Archibald played NHL-only last season for the first time and his career pts/GP (.3) is slightly higher than Jurco’s (.25), who didn’t play in the NHL last season, and only played part of the year prior. Jurco’s only full-time NHL season was ’14-’15. Cave is the youngest of the group at 24 so there is still a reasonable expectation for improvement, but he hasn’t scored all that much (.14 pts/GP NHL) at any level and he still hasn’t made the NHL on a full-time basis. They’ve all had decent camps, but there isn’t a lot separating them.

3 Europeans:
Nygard and Haas have contracts but they haven’t shown all that much so far. Nygard looked decent in his last game and Haas has shown some signs of improvement but it might be too little, too late for him. There is ( is there?) a possibility for them to get sent down and come back up in a month after they adjust to the North American game.
Burdasov is a wild card and slightly behind the eight ball after joining camp so late. He looked quite promising in his one exhibition game, though, and his numbers suggest he might have the biggest upside of anyone outside the top 3. Goal NHLes of 32, 24, and 25 in his last 3 seasons in the KHL. Has decent speed and is physical enough that the transition might be less of an issue. Can he be signed to an NHL contract? Does a trade have to happen first? How do they see more of him to make an informed decision before the season starts? It would be a shame if he pulled a Versteeg and signed elsewhere to only light it up and become a force in the NHL.

AHL player who has earned a long look:
Patrick Russell. He’s had a textbook camp on how to do everything you can to make it.

Do we agree on…
McDavid Draisaitl Nugent-Hopkins
Neal Chiasson Sheahan
Granlund Kassian Khaira
Gagner
… as 10 sure things?
Although Granlund has done as much as he can to move off that list, in my opinion. But he is probably still given the benefit of the doubt as a vet who was just signed by the GM.

Which 2 of the following make it?
Archibald, Jurco, Cave
Nygard, Haas, Burdasov
Russell

Cave can play C, and was in the NHL last season and has played well in the preseason, so he may have a leg up. Archibald has been a buzzsaw and played all year in the NHL last season, so maybe he grabs the other spot.

That leaves Jurco, Nygard, Haas, Russell, and Burdasov out of the opening night lineup.

Who is sent down, sent home, sent packing or in the press box?

Jurco and Russell make sense as press box sitters as they don’t need to learn more, they just have to earn their keep at this point.

Would Nygard, Haas, and Burdasov (assuming they even sign him) accept an assignment to Bakersfield? And, if so, for how long before they go back to Europe? I believe Haas indicated that he’d be fine for about a month. I think a trade might have to happen before they sign Burdasov.

OriginalPouzar

jp:
OriginalPouzar,

Did you include Brodziak in your calculation? I just did it and the 14/7/2 + retained + buyouts + Brodziak comes out to the $79.967M shown on CapFriendly (that is $1.533M under the cap).

There is the issue – you have a 23 man roster PLUS Brodz to get within $1.5M of the cap.

That subsumes that Brodz is already placed on LTIR via off-season LTIR.

In order to activate an LTIR cushion, they need to be within $1.15M of the cap when the place Brodz on LTIR.

Essentially you have to assume Brodz is on the 23 man roster so you need to subtract a current player – even if its Cave and his league min cap hit, they are now apx $2.2M from the cap.

jp

OriginalPouzar,

Did you include Brodziak in your calculation? I just did it and the 14/7/2 + retained + buyouts + Brodziak comes out to the $79.967M shown on CapFriendly (that is $1.533M under the cap).

So if your take is correct and they can put Persson on IR and replace him on the roster, a paper transaction of Bouchard instead of Bear (who’d be in the actual opening night lineup) would get them to within $639k of the cap. Then Brodziak to LTIR would open up an extra $510k for the season. Not earth shattering, but not a bad thing.

That’s the only easy transaction that wouldn’t expose a player to waivers, but if Burdasov signs and/or if Haas makes the roster over Jurco or Cave that would add more to the cap and allow the team to claim more of Brodziak’s LTIR relief.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Well they’re $1.533M from the cap right now. I guess my original question, not explicitly stated, was where does Persson “go” if he’s injured. He counts against the cap once the season starts, so does the roster expand to 24 effectively once he’s on IR? Or does the limit remain 23 for cap compliance? So that they need to keep him among the 23 even though they know he’s injured and will need to be replaced immediately (that seems unlikely since it could in some circumstances necessitate waiving a player a team plans to use to replace the already injured player).

If the roster effectively expands to 24 players, still counting Persson’s salary, then adding Bear to replace him brings them to ~$800k from the cap. So they could get a little relief from Brodziak in this case. And there’s potential to shuffle some more expensive players in short term to get even closer to the cap if this is an option at all (Bouchard vs Bear is an extra $170k for instance).

But maybe this isn’t how it works at all.

(A) They can leave Persson on the 23 man roster (and his cap hit stays).

or

(B) They can place Persson on IR which takes him off the 23 man roster (but his cap hit stays).

With option (B), they can call someone up to fill the 23 man roster while Persson is on IR (for an additional cap hit).

You are correct, if they do this and get within $800K of the cap, and then place Brodz on IR, they will get small cushion to go over the cap of just over $300K.

This will stay for the year.

————————–

With that said, something doesn’t add up right with capfriendly’s numbers.

If you add up the 14/7/2 plus buyout hits plus retained plus Brodz it doesn’t get you to the number they provide (around $80M).

Further in order to use that LTIR relief in this situation, that 23 man roster on day 1 (plus Persson on IR) needs to be cap compliant including Brodz, before placing Brodz on LTIR.

What I’m getting at here is that, in order to get the relief, they need to account for Brodz in the intial day 1 cap compliance and, when doing so, we won’t be close enough to the cap to get any relief (even if Persson is on IR and a replacement is called up.

Unless I’m doing the math wrong.

Jordan

Harpers Hair:
A hockey milestone today.
Cammi Granato hired by the new Seattle franchise as the first female pro scout in the league.
I would imagine her husband Ray Ferraro may have some unofficial input into the next expansion draft.

I think it might be the other way around, and Cammi’s scouting reports might not be available to Ray when he’s working anymore…

jp

OriginalPouzar: No, I don’t think it does – even if they IR Persson for day 1 and call-up the most expensive player in the minors, Marody, I don’t think its gets them within $1.15M to activate an LTIR relief cushion.

Well they’re $1.533M from the cap right now. I guess my original question, not explicitly stated, was where does Persson “go” if he’s injured. He counts against the cap once the season starts, so does the roster expand to 24 effectively once he’s on IR? Or does the limit remain 23 for cap compliance? So that they need to keep him among the 23 even though they know he’s injured and will need to be replaced immediately (that seems unlikely since it could in some circumstances necessitate waiving a player a team plans to use to replace the already injured player).

If the roster effectively expands to 24 players, still counting Persson’s salary, then adding Bear to replace him brings them to ~$800k from the cap. So they could get a little relief from Brodziak in this case. And there’s potential to shuffle some more expensive players in short term to get even closer to the cap if this is an option at all (Bouchard vs Bear is an extra $170k for instance).

But maybe this isn’t how it works at all.

Harpers Hair

A hockey milestone today.
Cammi Granato hired by the new Seattle franchise as the first female pro scout in the league.
I would imagine her husband Ray Ferraro may have some unofficial input into the next expansion draft.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Does this allow the Oilers to get close enough to the cap to take advantage of some of Brodziak’s LTIR relief? I remain confused about the LTIR/finalizing roster details.

No, I don’t think it does – even if they IR Persson for day 1 and call-up the most expensive player in the minors, Marody, I don’t think its gets them within $1.15M to activate an LTIR relief cushion.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar:
Am I the only one that saw Jurco good and skilled in his two exhibition games and who thinks his name should be right up there with Nygard for the 2LW job?

I agree. Him not being in the top six after his camp and very solid AHL numbers in the past as well as NHL experience is exactly why so many posters here continue to espouse phrases like Because Oilers or Doing Things Not to Win etc. Jurco has speed, skill, shot and some size (plus a drive I suspect to finally make it). Him not getting a shot is actually ruining the latter part of pre-season for me. It’s totally old hockey man stupid.

Gamma Cassiopeiae

hunter1909:
HURRY BEFORE PRE SEASON ENDS AND THE TRUE OILERS ASTOUND US ALL!!!!

Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

That’s it!

Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

I’ll take 94 points and 17 goals… because there are other goalies out there when these two fail.

kgo

102 points, 13 goals

hunter1909

HURRY BEFORE PRE SEASON ENDS AND THE TRUE OILERS ASTOUND US ALL!!!!

Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

That’s it!

Tie break: How many goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

jp

OriginalPouzar:
So:

Persson out for 7-10 with a sore shoulder – good news as its short term.

Bear will play the next two games – opportunity knocks.

Nygard may line up with Drai as his center next game.

Nuge held out of practice with a sore leg but he’s fine – he wasn’t going to Winnipeg any ways.

———————-

They are really trying to push Nygard in to the 2LW (assuming they want to replace Gagner there).I don’t know what more Jurco needed to do in his two games to get a shot up there.

Nygard with Draisaitl could also be an audition for 1LW.

Harpers Hair

Darth Tu:
So, if you’re Calgary, how do you make the cap work with the Tkachuk signing? Have less players in your squad to start the season?

They’re barely over, $650k or so by my reckoning.

Send a player down and then recall when Valimaki goes on LTIR.

jp

Munny:
PuckPedia‏ @PuckPedia · 42m42 minutes ago


As Persson is on a 1-way deal, if injured to start year his full $1M Cap Hit counts against #Oilers Cap.

If player like Yamamoto (2 way, <50 NHL GP last year) is injured to start year, his Cap Charge is based on his Accumulated NHL Cap Hit last year ($303K); so $1.6K charge/day

Does this allow the Oilers to get close enough to the cap to take advantage of some of Brodziak’s LTIR relief? I remain confused about the LTIR/finalizing roster details.

Darth Tu

So, if you’re Calgary, how do you make the cap work with the Tkachuk signing? Have less players in your squad to start the season?

They’re barely over, $650k or so by my reckoning.

OriginalPouzar

gimmeshelter:
I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

I’m 99.9% certain you won’t be seeing Bouchard in the Oilers last two exhibition games.

OriginalPouzar

Jaxon:
Is Burdasov still considered a long shot? If he does make it on the RW, and if Neal is a lock, then that leaves Kassian, Chiasson, Gagner, Archibald, and P Russell battling for 2 RW spots in the lineup. Gagner can still play C or LW, and I suppose the others can play their off wing but at least 2 of them won’t be on the opening night lineup. Based on experience, contact and preseason I would expect Chiasson and Kassian get the most rope. Gagner’s versatility and experience and skill level may keep him in the lineup. That puts Archibald and Russell in the press box or sent down. Interesting preseason.

Considering he’s played 13:31 (all situations)…..

He’s going to have to show ALOT in these last two games to get an actual contract I would think.

I can’t imagine Archibald not being in the lineup – his PK acumen and speed are coveted assets for this team.

drglen

OriginalPouzar,

yes, he was also pretty tenacious as I recall. Too much time has elapsed and he’s kind of out of mind unfairly.

drglen

In the minority but I’m actually pretty good with our goalies…. especially smith.

drglen

Pouzar,

Shehans pretty good on face of though isn’t he? I think Cave is pretty good too, but if we can get a 55% face off man, that’s worth more offence and less defending.

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster: Konovalov with a shutout today. Is it the no more MacT effect?

Beat me too it – thank you.

jtblack

OCTOBER SCHEDULE:

10 of 14 Games against Non Playoff teams.

NOVEMBER SCHEDULE: tougher

6 of 14 Games Against Non Playoff teams.

So we should have a decent idea of this team quickly.

ArmchairGM

gimme shelter:
I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

No need to trade. We already know Benning and Russell are capable of playing RD, while one of Lagesson or Manning cover off 3LD. We’ll be fine for now.

jtblack

OriginalPouzar:
There is absolutely a reasonable chance that Mike Smith will provide 50 or so solid games of goaltending. He dealt with personal issues last year and had a terrible year.A solid bounce back late in the season and the playoffs.

Two two seasons Prior to last were .914/.916 in 55 games.

Sure, maybe the cliff has come but I think its reasonable to presume a bounce back of some sort.

Now Mikko, well, he doesn’t have that track record but what he should have is a veteran partner in net – whether its tips, comfort level, more rest, being pushed or what, hopefully it has some sort of positive effect.

I fully acknowledge I’m stretching here a bit but I just don’t see Smith being awful like last season.

“I fully acknowledge I’m stretching here a bit”

Ever the Optimist!

gimme shelter

I want to see how Bouchard does in his two preseason games with Persson out.
I want to see the Burd man have a good outing and not with Haas and Nygard. I would like him in the top 6 mix.
Ethan Bear needs to show he is NHL capable or do we have to trade for a RD?

OriginalPouzar

Am I the only one that saw Jurco good and skilled in his two exhibition games and who thinks his name should be right up there with Nygard for the 2LW job?