This should be a big day for Oilers fans, the organization will no doubt make some transactions (waivers on some, demotion for others) and we could see a claim. Terry Jones trick knee (acquired by climbing stairs at the Lacombe Globe in 1957) tells him we might see a trade. I have a guess after the turn.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.
- New Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
- New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s fast start leads the way for Oilers prospects as 2019-20 gets underway
- New Lowetide: Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas bid for final Oilers spots during a strange game in Calgary
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: An educated guess at the Oilers’ opening-night roster
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
- Jonathan Willis: Ethan Bear, Tomas Jurco outshine the competition in second-to-last Oilers preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Joakim Nygard managing his anger as he eyes spot on Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Assessing the Oilers’ roster as the final positional battles are sorted out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers cut Evan Bouchard and Shane Starrett. Is Ethan Bear on the cusp of making the team?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ bottom-six forwards, penalty kill shine in loss to Arizona Coyotes
- Lowetide: Injuries and prospects: A brief Oilers history of devastating derailments
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
- Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
- Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
- Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
CERTAIN OILERS [18]
The numbers: Forwards five-on-five scoring per 60; Defense Corsi for five-on-five; Goalies five-on-five save percentage.
Everyone among the certain group is healthy and ready to go, that’s the top worry every year. After that, the goalies were poor and Granlund probably doesn’t dress in the first game based on his performance. The defensive possession numbers, while a small sample size, are quality, and you’d like to see them remain that way (plus a few more stops by the goalies).
UNCERTAIN OILERS [8]
The numbers: Forwards five-on-five scoring per 60; Defense Corsi for five-on-five; Goalies five-on-five save percentage.
My estimate of the strongest names for the final five additions to ‘certain’: Ethan Bear, William Lagesson, Tomas Jurco, Joakim Nygard and Colby Cave. I don’t think my list will win the day. Haas and Manning (from the distant bells) have a real chance.
THE DISTANT BELLS [1]
The numbers: Forwards five-on-five scoring per 60; Defense Corsi for five-on-five; Goalies five-on-five save percentage.
Brandon Manning has not outplayed William Lagesson, in fact Caleb Jones is a better option. The only reasons to keep him are to give Lagesson regular work in Bakersfield and the fact Manning can go weeks without playing and not hurt his development. I don’t think it’s enough, but the Oilers may.
CONDORS PRESEASON NUMBERS
OILERS FANS AND DEFENSEMEN
Reading online these days, I’m beginning to wonder if Oilers fans value Darnell Nurse at all. That’s sad, because Nurse is a fine defenseman who has 279 NHL games on his resume at age 24. He’s a value deal and based on his foot speed I think he might be able to play until freedom 55. Nurse is not perfect, but his 2017-18 season (have a look at Puck IQ) showed real promise. He’s easily top 4D on this Oilers team and scored 10 goals and 41 points on a team that couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn door a year ago. His contract, this season, is a value deal. He has areas of the game that need work, and I’m not convinced the shutdown duo (Nurse and Larsson) will work. That’s miles from Nurse being the problem, people. I think hyperbole has gotten the best of some of you as it pertains to Mr. Nurse.
On the other hand, Ethan Bear is being heralded as the next great blue, which irritates me. Why? I like Ethan Bear, like his story, like his hard work and skill set. Which means it’ll be impossible to ignore all the negatives from the same bunch who are ripping Nurse now. When Bear struggles this season, and he will because he’s young, the criticism will begin, light like dry timber on the side of a mountain, and we’ll be reading about Bear being the problem for the next five years.
Defensemen are difficult to gauge and progress is a series of ladders with a few snakes thrown in. Do not get ahead of yourself on these young blue. Ethan Bear is a helluva prospect, I like him plenty and have since before his draft day. Don’t ruin his early NHL career for me. Seriously.
Brandon Manning is a strong candidate to be placed on waivers today and my guess is the Oilers will be watching the other waiver players (at 10 this morning) for possible claim tomorrow morning. There are holes. The best names might be goalies and it will be fascinating to see if Ken Holland grabs someone.
As for trades this week, it has to be a defenseman, no? Lots of blood in the water around Matt Benning, so we’ll see if Holland wants to pull the trigger on a deal early or later. For me, Benning offers more experience than Bear, Evan Bouchard or Joel Persson. It would be a nice change of pace to see a general manager who makes sure he can afford to trade a RH defenseman before he actually does. Call it the Jeff Petry rule.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we get the week started with high quality talent (well, the guests are great). Andy McNamara from TSN4Downs talks NFL weekend and the surprises from Sunday. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 talks Oilers and Eskimos at 11, while Pete Jensen from NHL.com talks fantasy hockey and your best bargains this year. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I don’t think his salary had anything to do with his demotion. His replacement costs a minimum of 750 thousand. At best the Oilers save 350 thousand off the cap.
rickithebear,
– Steven Truscott: that case has always fascinated me. Your father found Lynne’s body?!
I’m not sure if you’re referring to your nether regions, agreeing with me, or disagreeing with me (or just being sarcastic)?
I’d rather give a mid-range UFA an extra year than give up a 1st round pick for a mid-range player who is already overpaid. Hands down.
Again, buying out Sekera SAVED the Oilers $3M in cap space. Your argument is nonsensical.
Something tells me that you don’t understand math. Let’s work out your formula in numbers, shall we?
Not buying out Sekera: + $3.0M cap hit
Not signing Chiasson: – $2.15M
Not signing Granlund: – $1.3M
Cap space made available: $450,000
So your statement adds less space to the cap than league minimum, you can’t add ANYONE for that amount let alone a top-6 forward. The statement is factually incorrect.
Of course, if Sekera is on your roster you can back out Bear’s $720k cap hit now, leaving you with $1.17M. But, you have to bring in 2 players to replace Chiasson and Granlund, putting you back in an impossible situation again. On its own, this just isn’t true.
I agree that Holland could have added a top-6-type player over the summer – say Dzingel or Connolly – but your statement is an oversimplification of the cap situation.
rickithebear,
As you know, typically those South American military dictatorships dealt out their violence to people and in places that Thatcher and Reagan wouldn’t give a damn about.
The stupidest of the stupid (when it comes to war and despair) seems to always come from those that were allowed to do some of it as long as it was against peasants, farmers and trade unionists; then all of the sudden, bam! The sadistic and stupid people that were given the weaponry started doing stupid and sadistic things with it.
In my circles, sometimes people will call these wars pointless or thoughtless or wasteful. I think that’s naïve, controlled losses are still controlled.
I don’t care how bad his attitude is. If Sprong can put up 14 goals over 47 games as a 21 year old, he’s more valuable than one of Granlund, Archibald, Khaira, Sheahan, Haas, P Russell, Cave. I’d say bye bye to Cave myself and bring in Sprong. I’m guessing he’s claimed before the Oilers get a crack at him though.
hunter1909,
Hey hunter, thanks for doing this!
Please mark me down with 97 points and 15 for JP!
Cheers.
Numenius,
I don’t think they’re unhappy he’s in the org. It’s actually a benefit that at his salary, they know he’ll clear waivers and thus they will have vet skill on call in the minors in case of injuries or widespread anemic play.
Sure it would’ve been better if they had had the caps space instead. (Or even better, Strome) . But they could’ve bought him out and didn’t this summer. That’s a choice… knowing full well what would likely transpire in pre-season.
It’s expensive depth at the cost of $3M and change, but that’s part of the reason why it exists.
I also think it’s affected by the desire to send Laggy down to get more reps in the A, rather than sitting in the PB here. Because that means expensive depth Manning on the roster.
Tippet made his main reasons clear in his presser.
1) To be in top 6 you need speed, To be in bottom six you need to pk, and Gagner has/does neither.
2) We don’t want to lose Russell to waivers, which would be more likely than Gagner.
The first shows it has quite a bit to do with what Gagner does, though the second presumably has something to do with what he makes.
I think???
Nooooooo!
If you had stated:
I looked at a 40 gm sample of 5 strong gf teams even goals for.
From the 1038 evg I observed
– The 4 Corsi penetrations % to be.
In corsi
In to in corsi
Out to in corsi
Out corsi
Their is clear trends requiring more complex look over last 2 seasons.
Like a high % of direct penetration Un challenged open IN corsi to undefended side of Rovers HD area.
Video (undying eye) based, first 2 levels of soft, review quickly identifies high affect SOE choices to further study to identify systematic robotic repetition of high success SOE.
My father among others taught me this.
My father has not known who I was for 2 years.
But he accepts that I am who people say Imam when I come to visit.
We talk about the things he did with me that I loved the most.
It makes him smile and you see the pauses with smile we’re he remembers slight moments.
We talk about our past.
It re- inforces what I have learned.
One time he asked me when he was most frustrated by his work.
1. Involved in Steve Truscott victim search. Found the body placed and positioned in a way no boy could do it.
– He said those “ meatheads” ( RCMP) were going to convict him no matter what.
– My Uncle ( moms side) did not soften the stance when he was discharged from RCMP.
He arrived at his first domestic and rather quickly beat the guy unconcious.
– Was not until death of my Moms close friends husband “ RCMP officer Don King” that he softened his stance. He regretted his label. ( we are not the clothes we wear, we are individuals)
2. Using remote sensing and thermal technology to find proper laying position of Clifford Olson victims.
That agreement sickened him. ( victims should be protected in human rights)
3. Helping build the Argentine satellite tracking stations and Program (he was the world leader)during the Falkland war. Knowing his only ( non defensive misses) Exocet was responsible for deaths.
And Knowing they would try to fault with on board military Personel
Leading command were 2 stupid to know the ability of excocet.
(It is OK to advance, but almost any advance will lead to death)
Jaxon,
THANK YOU! I feel like everyone is taking crazy pills.
Nurse is a fantastic player who is not yet at his ceiling. Should have been signed long term last off season.
“Elite D tend to show themselves early…”
Not all of them guys!
20/20 Troll-sight is nice, eh?
I wonder if Columbus would trade for Gagner, 50% retained by the OIlers, for their power play. I guess we find out tomorrow.
From the days of yore I have not been a supporter of Gagner as a top 6 contributing overall player. Points he scores but I want more.
However at this point in his career I would say his demotion has far more to do with his salary than what he actually does. At a low salary he’s probably on this team.
Gagner waiver today reminded of his draft mate, Alex Plante. Now there’s a name if you want to complain about slow developing defenceman. At least Nurse can skate.
From Plante to Broberg. This org IS getting better if you look from the right angles.
Very happy to see the Gagner waiver today. This, and the demotion of the young AHL guys early shows maturation of the organization. Last spring, fans and ownership (including Keith Gretzky) we’re falling over each other on how awesome it was to have Gagner back in an Oilers uniform. But if we’re honest with ourselves, Gagner is very one dimensional and he doesn’t cut it for top 6 NHL. Tippet saw this. No way this happens without both Holland and Tippet here.
Netflix?
I’m sure we will hear the same faulty argument a few more times; it’s been like a broken record around here lately for certain posters. We’ve gone over this a thousand times.
Four year contracts for non-core players is a failure, historically. Why would you give one to Michael Ferland or Benoit Pouliot or Antoine Roussel or Andrew Ference or….
JT Miller cost a first round draft pick. That is a huge price to pay for the Canucks. The Oilers cannot afford that; I don’t think the Canucks can afford that. I’m glad Holland didn’t do that.
The other guys aren’t difference makers — I’m not sure why DSF keeps referencing them. It’s like trying to impress your buddies with your sports car that turns out to be an 80’s Mustang LX with the four cylinder engine.
Well then…no top six wingers for you!
You seem to have missed the part about not buying out Sekera and not signing Granlund.
Connolly will be an interesting case study though.
Seriously. Gagner is a shining example of why you don’t sign free agents.
Ferland didn’t score a single goal
In his last 17 regular season games and 7 playoff games. His icetime was dropped to 10 minutes by the playoffs. Like all UFAs who hit the open market, his previous team did not want him at his market price. The only successful UFAs are the marginal players who get paid virtually nothing. Maybe Ferland defies the odds and works out. It’s very unlikely and it doesn’t make it a good signing. It makes it a lucky signing.
Chiasson was likely the wrong signing for the Oilers (in that his salary could theoretically have been supplemented and used to sign a UFA “top 6 forward”).
But I dunno. Combining his last 2 seasons Chiasson is 212th in points for NHL forwards. His salary is 243rd. Shrug.
If you keep repeating the same message, eventually you start to believe it.
Agree with this assessment. Signing top six UFAs does not solve problems. It creates them. You think people would realize this in Vancouver and Edmonton.
So they could have signed Ferland who scored less than Chiasson last year and will probably be slightly better this year for 1 million more and 2 years more, no thanks. 80% of the league’s contracts look better than Gagners so that is a useless comparison.
Of course Edmonton can make trades but we were talking about the players Edmonton could have signed with the money from not signing Chiasson buying out Gagner.
Baertschi and Sprong would beat out guys in our 12. That’s all.
hunter1909,
agreed.. new side topic!
Dr. Taboggan,
sekera, I believe , he believed… he was going to be injured and then you’d have another big problem. Too risky, in other words. Chaisson, you’ve got a point.. . good player and I don’t know all the details of the contract.. ok wait looked it up.. 2 years at 4.3.. so 2. 15 ish per year… yes that is much too high. Not all that much too high mind you.. I’d say he well worth 1.5 to 1.7 in that range.. .
he’s a really useful and versatile player that won’t hurt you, bit of an overpay for sure overall. Could we replace Chaisson and could we survive his loss from the roster…. probably yes.
I’m fully agree with the sekera buy out though. I never saw him return close to form when he came back ( put him even or just under benning) . and very likely to reinjure. That sounds mean Andre and I”m sorry. Prove me wrong! ( great year in Minny)
The larger issue with the argument (keep Sekera, don’t sign Chiasson or Granlund = top 6 winger) is that those moves retain a veteran D while leaving about $2M to replace Chiasson and Granlund on the roster (with one of the replacements being a top 6 winger). The original statement was not a true statement. And whether Ferland is worth 4X$3.5M is moot.
Okay I’m going to shock you all and say I really don’t give much of a flying fuck about music but if any of you like cinema on it’s highest plane check out “Generation War” a 4.5 hour I guess made for tv movie made by the Germans. A WW2 story that will blow your tiny minds! It certainly blew mine.
Holland is allowed to trade all season long if I understand how the NHL operates.
On so many levels I 100% agree with you.
On the other hand since 2001 or so I’ve been following this medicine show of a franchise. MacT’s 8 games then sacked by those non-impressed by 5 cups dynasties former soviets really hits it home for me. lol
I don’t necessarily mind Holland taking a conservative approach to the offseason but then why the Sekera buyout and Chiasson contract? Just sign more plugs at league minimum and ride out the year (and another year of Sekera’s contract). It makes no sense.
Ferland is not overpaid in either dollars or term
His cap hit is slightly more than Gagner’s and he’s three years younger.
Twitchy? My dude has a long, long career.
rickithebear,
I think that any third pass with an ‘in’ destination is deadly no matter what because of the implications of the player movement that makes that happen.
As for in to in, if that’s someone skatning outside in and then making the pass to another player in a high danger area, that’s probably a lower success rate pass than anything that could be characterised as that above play I just mentioned.
Ferland is 27. Why is 4 years too long?
Miller can be counted on for 20+ goals playing the top 6
Leivo is a possession pisscutter. and just needs more opportunity.
Pearson is a former 24 goal scorer on a Kings team that couldn’t score a lick.
You know the Oilers can make trades too, right?
Again tell me which top six winger free agent would be available that wasn’t overpaid either with cap hit or term. The Vancouver example does not prove this in the least.
Ferland 3.5m for four years
Miller 5.25m for 4 more years
Leivo 26 years old 133 career games 46 career points
Pearson 3.75m 2 more years
My opinion on these players is
Ferland too long of contract. PASS
Miller. TAKE
Leivo just adds another bottom 6, doesn’t move the needle. PASS
Pearson could help. TAKE
The 2 I would take were from trades. We were talking about using cap space to pick up wingers. These 2 weren’t available for cap space so they have nothing to do with the discussion.
Yes it is.
Are people really turning on Holland before the season starts?
Yikes. We really are in a sad state of affairs as a fanbase if we’re that twitchy.
Please stop. This is not a true statement.
The one that didn’t cost a lottery pick in either of next two drafts
dessert1111,
I believe the oilers are 7th on the pecking order for waiver claims based on last seasons standings. Will 6 other teams pass on him (well 5 teams since Ana put him on waivers)?
dessert1111,
no… don’t bring anybody in. This is a good group and a competitive group.. ( and Haas is going to be good, and I think should play right now) .. Roll with what we have.. it’s a competitive team.
The only thing to bite on is a 2RW, via trade bundle. We should not be looking at bottom 6 waives right now at all..
I’d be keeping my eye on the Drouin situation in montreal.
Got’s to love how Oiler fans just freaking cannot wait to trade away every fucking half decent player for more magic beans.