The Edmonton Oilers 2015 draft is in year five and shines like a diamond with Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and John Marino in the NHL now, today. The club needs that kind of production from 2016, 2017 and beyond.
The first draft for Ken Holland, the first one that will include 12 scouting months to prepare, is the 2020 edition. It is a monster at the top.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
- Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
- Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
- Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Leon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
- Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS 2020 DRAFT PICKS
- First round—No. 28 overall.
- Second round—No. 59 overall.
- Third round—No. 90 overall (dealt to Calgary in James Neal trade. Not official until Neal scores 21 goals).
- Fourth round—No. 121 overall.
- Fifth round—No. 152 overall.
- Sixth round—No. 183 overall.
- Seventh round—No. 214 overall (may belong to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Nolan Vesey trade).
CURRENT PROSPECTS, BY POSITION AND TYPE
When we talk draft, we all say the Oilers don’t ‘draft for need’ but that only really applies for the first round. We’ll have a look at this year’s group in a minute, but the team has tremendous quality and depth on defense and a lack of centers and top-end wingers.
A QUICK CHAT
Last season, when I released my final draft rankings (here), there was more than the usual amount of push back and derision. I don’t mind, grew up Jehovah’s Witness and have been a target for many personality types as an adult. I would rather find the truth than worry about what the pack is talking. Waiting for loudmouths to admit they’re wrong is a waste of time (you know who admits when he is wrong? Darcy McLeod. People could learn a lot from him about arguing your point with passion while still having the self awareness to admit discovery has landed you on a new tectonic plate), so it’s best to find out what you can and not argue a point that will see a series of chains being moved.
In that ranking last June, I placed Arthur Kaliyev No. 5 overall, and you could hear the hoots and howls all the way down the Henday. This year? Well, Kaliyev has scored 27 goals in 26 games while playing in the best junior league in the world, so the hollers aren’t quite so loud. Kaliyev is a player with some warts, but when you see a June 2001 eligible for the 2019 draft who scored 51 goals at 17, you should value that thing. One of the weirdest things about scouts is their allergy to math. If you had a tool that could make you better in your job, would you use it? I think you would. Scouts are important, vitally important, but if I was a scouting director and a scout had a 51-goal draft eligible (who was a June birthday) in his area he was trashing, I’d want to have a damned long report on why my team was going to pass on him.
Who is this year’s Kaliyev? Don’t know yet. It might be Mavrik Bourque and it could be Tyson Foerster or some other young first-shot scorer. He’ll let us know.
2020 BUTTON’S TOP 10 NHLE’S
- Alexis Lafreniere 51.1
- Quinton Byfield 46.9
- Cole Perfetti 44.1
- Connor Zary 37.1
- D Jamie Drysdale 28.6
- Tim Stutzle 20.9
- Hendrix Lapierre 20.8
- Alexander Holtz 17.1
- Lucas Raymond 15.3
This is Craig Button’s top 10 run through NHLE. My ranking here isn’t a ranking, we’re just figuring out what the equivalencies say. Button’s list is here. My list would move up Raymond, who is playing just 10 minutes a night in the SHL. He’s probably top five overall. Alexander Holtz is playing 13:24 in the same league, I think he would climb up my list as well. Tim Stutzle plays in the DEL, I don’t trust that league (yet) so would probably fade him a little. Connor Zary is a Sept 2001, so is older than the other kids. I would fade him, too. My top three NHLE match Button’s here, that’s a good guess for my top three when I publish the first ranking (New Year’s Day).
2020 HOCKEY PROSPECT.COM 11-20
- Marco Rossi 61.3
- Dawson Mercer 37.7
- Anton Lundell 22.2
- D Braden Schneider 15.8
- Dylan Holloway 12.6
- Noel Gunler 11.6
This is an assortment of 2020 prospects ranked very high by HockeyProspect.com. I value the work done by this group highly, so will be tracking these names and others. Marco Rossi is an older player and a small player, but my goodness that’s a big number.
One Player
For the next few weeks, I’m going to highlight one player from the 2020 draft we should investigate. Today it’s LC Ty Smilanic from the U.S. National Development Program. A pure scorer, Smilanic has plus speed and good playmaking skills. His calling card is his shot. He has been compared to Dylan Larkin. Suspect he’s gone inside the top 20. A couple of cool highlights here.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll kickstart the weekend with a fun and informative show. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk Mike Babcock, Grey Cup coverage and what HNIC is doing in the Cherry segment. Frank Seravalli will talk Oilers injuries, Jesse Puljujarvi and Bill Peters. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
So if you are Ron Francis, and you are down to Bill Peters and Todd Nelson as your choices for head coach, whose recommendation, Babcock’s and Holland’s and the Bowman’s, or MacT’s and Tambellini’s and John Anderson rate higher?
Remember sociopaths are experts at managing up the chain of command, and are bullies towards their underlings.
Former players of the coach are typically not used in the vetting process. That is not how the old boys network/club works. In almost any field
When they traded for Kawhi, winning the championship WAS the plan. Everyone knew it was likely a one shot deal.
There was no “process”. The existing core was good but not championship worthy so Ujuri rolled the dice on a top 5 NBA player and proven playoff stud coming back from a serious injury.
The plan was championship or bust. If bust, tear it down.and rebuild.
Arguably, the Raptors season turned out exactly as planned when they traded for Kawhi.
Thanks Wilde, I appreciate your work on the AHL games. I figured it was a typo on your part actually, just wanted to make sure our boys weren’t shortchanged!
I’m just here for the Exile on Main Street references.
To be fair to yourself, it was 10 years ago and for a joke blog that existed for about 3 weeks. I can’t say I blame you for mis-remembering. Only reason I remembered was because I had it on the blogroll over on my old site so I was able to find the link pretty quickly.
Ahh the good old days…
right, that works. I guess I’ll check
e: lol my own data has it at 3 – 1 too, I was gonna be mad; everything else in my post is verified
Beauty
I see that
When i said I didn’t remember the details, I wasn’t kidding.
No, but the gamesheets have who was on/off for each goal.
https://lscluster.hockeytech.com/game_reports/official-game-report.php?client_code=ahl&game_id=1019933&lang_id=1
it was this: http://indifferenttobelgium.blogspot.com/
Icecastles set it up.
Fun times indeed
The AHL has WOWY stats?
Theahl.com has Lagesson-Bouchard 3 GF – 1 GA.
That Dictionary is so delightful.
What a fantastic piece of writing!
A real treasure.
Thanks for the updates and numbers. Great to see the Condors get a deserved W.
The Oilers blue line has gone and got crowded but nice to hear Persson is bringing his SHL game to the AHL at least.
You’ll never be hired as an NHL coach now!
Material: An Original way of assessing value.
Crozier gets credit for the first popecheck.
Fine work, Wonder Llama and Bone207. Fine work.
Maksimov also creeping up in Game Score per game despite putting himself firmly in the depth-journeyman tier (0.00-0.40 for forwards) until his breakout game on the 21st – was 0.22 in his first 12 games, 1.01 in his last 4. Highest on the team in that short period, though mostly buoyed by that absurd 2.92 game.
Persson also appears to not be an AHL defenseman. He’s basically just an uncheckable passer, and AHL speedsters (there’s a ton on the Barracuda and Roadrunners) don’t seem to be able to challenge him hard enough to make a hard-punish out of the worse end of his puck and positioning decisions.
bassguy,
Oh no, I didn’t compile that list!
Credit to Wonder Llama and Bone207, not me.
I really like the composition of that line. I hope it sticks together for awhile. Cave is a great mentor for both the young lads.
Some extra notes:
– Bouchard’s 12 shot contributions is the highest of any defenceman this year in a single game
– I’m taking credit for the Lowe-Persson and Lagesson-Bouchard swap; the latter went 33 CF – 19 CA , 2 GF – 1 GA
– Maksimov, on a very strong ling with Cave, McLeod and he (20 CF – 7 CA), clocked 5 iCF + 4 iCFA, 24 CF – 7 CA
..my alltime favorite though is , not sure if I have the exact wording…, “Im going to drink a beer then Im going to have another one” …
Munny,
yes, excellent description of Lowetide’s pronouns, adjectives, verbs and secret meanings..haha
you are missing one but i am so impressed at this list you have compiled…”the donner party”
…The Donner Party was a group of American pioneers who migrated to California in a wagon train from the Midwest. Delayed by a series of mishaps, they spent the winter of 1846–47 snowbound in the Sierra Nevada. …. obviously that is a hockey reference” if I ever saw one”, reference to “a drunkards dream” but in the song”up on crippled creek”by a favorite band of Lowetide’s..”the band”….(donner party is referenced by this scholar “wonder llama ” previously being “the decade of darkness” and such)
‘Violently disagree’ should also be added
Condors v. Barracuda; Totals; 5-on-5
60 CF – 41 CA
35 FF – 24 FA
4 GF – 2 GA
One of my favourites, along with OTC.
Oilers already threw away a 1st on Yamamoto, but of course this time everything’s going to be different.
Mr DeBakey,
I’ve never been partial to Belgium…?
Soon as I read this I started to laugh.
But, y’know I can’t remember the details about the story.
I recall it was started by someone who calls him [or her] self “Steve Smith”.
“Steve Smith” set up a Blogspot account in that name.
But not exactly that name, “partial to Belgium”, “couldn’t give a damn about Belgium” – something like that wasn’t it?
Anyways, fun times.
BONE207,
It would have to be called something like The Lowetide Ganger…
Compelting Air-ers by Lowetidian Reiders.
Wonder Llama,
Don’t feel any need to continue. You’ve already delighted us all. But if you did, you should probably disregard anything that is self-evident or a known meme.
For eg. Dys – Dynasties, for the Canucks is one that newbs here ask about all the time.
But “Steve Smith’s”, “I don’t think that means what you think it means” needs no explanation lol.
Llama…maybe we could collaborate on a: Epic Typos project.
Compelt, baraduda, popecheck would just a few that I read just tonight that could fill pages. You know…when we’re not drinking whiskey.
I checked out Peters’ head coaching record and it is spectacularly mediocre. Won the WHL championship once. Other than that, he has never made it out of the first round at any level.
Oh Gord, this is going to get out of hand.
I think HH brought up The Donner Party on page 1.
Your 2) reminds me off “I don’t think that means what you think it means”.
Ryan,
Wow. Nice!
Did LT call The Hockey News at Rexall Drugstore The Draft Bible? All summer you had to read it, lol.
If so, that ought to be in there.
He tells that THN story a lot, reminds me off the smell of those small town stores.
Are we missing:
Get your shine box, Rob Schremp
5 years of experience or one year of experience x 5
Something unusual about Belgium.
Coke machine – JF Jacques et al
Magnificent bastard – Stu
Unicorns – aka 3 scoring lines
Horcoff and die – the original proposed name for the blog shot down by Mrs Lowetide.
Toonces “Tambelleni”
Off board “for the draft”
Courage of convictions
Draft and college
Draft and follow
Trust the board
Pardubice prince – Hemsky
Walkabout – on the draft
Acid eater – Grebeshkov
The Dys – Sedins
Munny,
Incredible. That wondrous Llama.
Perhaps we should also add:
1) Donner Party
2) Fuck Bookje
Schitzo,
Could probably actually fill a friggin book lol.
Grey Creek…..home of the Gold Boulder no less. And, apparently “proudly metric free”. We are ‘up the lake’ as they say. As in up the lake from Nelson. Kaslo. Home of the Moyie, the Angry Hen Brewing, Langham Cultural Centre. Soon to be home of Muddy’s Roastery and fine tea. On the way to New Denver. Give me a nudge next summer if you get this far again. And with that, I bid you good evening as I head out the door to look at the stars on a clear night. Maybe there will be a unicorn!
Too bad that offer didn’t pan out but…
If you were to position yourself as Darnell’s voice of reason, plant yourself firmly upon his manly shoulders, you could help him negotiate his next contract. For which his remuneration to you would mean that 20k difference would be fire starter in terms of comparison. Just do it Pouz…
#Nurseslittlemonkey
Thanks for all your updates today.
Always room for a good Barbara Anne Scott reference. Or a pubis thing.
Edit: sugartits Robbie Schremp
Kootenay Lake – I’ve been there that last couple of summers – my wife’s cousin has a cottage up at Gray Creek.
100% agree – see also the Toronto Raptors last season. Nobody could have planned for how last season came together. But full credit for being able to make the right bets on the fly and having a system that could adapt and evolve. Even if they would have come up short it was the right process.
Wonder Llama,
Really great stuff Llama.
+1
+1
(in white to make it easier to read)
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Second edition, incorporating most of the suggested terms from Wednesday’s thread and a bonus section of BONE207’s additions!
LOWETIDE DICTIONARY
ALSO IN PHOTO: A sports journalism-inspired Lowetidian euphemism for “late to the play.” Example: “Number 12 Yvan Cournoyer hugs an elated Paul Henderson in front of a prone Vladislav Tretiak. Also in photo: future salt miner Yuri Lyapkin.”
BALANCE PHOTO: A mythical image promised for years to the Lowetide faithful when the Oilers roster is finally balanced with Pisscutters and Pisanis. Its appearance will herald a new Oilers Dynasty and the psychic orgasm of Lowetidians around the world.
BARKING CORGIS: A rare example of LRS (Lowetidian Rhyming Slang). In this case corgi = corsi. Corsi is a measure of official shots, missed shots, and blocked shots originally named by early Oilers blogger Tim Barnes (aka Vic Ferrari) arbitrarily yet appropriately after Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi. Whatever. When the small royal dogs are barking the Oilers are pushing the frozen disc of vulcanized rubber in the correct direction.
CALM YOUR TITS: Hold your horses. Chill your cheetahs. Mellow your manatees. Placate your platypuses. Sedate your salamanders. Temper your tardigrades. It’s just a game.
CAMPING BOX: Arguably Lowetide’s greatest childhood story. Soon to be a major motion picture. Search the archives and enjoy.
CAN’T PISS A DROP: The inability to score points at the NHL level (see Jean-Francois Jacques).
DANCES WITH BEES: Nail Yakupov’s Sioux name.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE: The deceptive temporary sign of life that a player or team displays just before his or its final collapse. Often occurring as the result of a desperate structural change like firing the head coach.The Oilers’ 9-2-2 record from Nov. 20 to Dec. 14, 2018 under new coach Ken Hitchcock was a dead cat bounce.
DECADE OF DARKNESS: 2006-2015; essentially the period between game 7 of the 2006 finals and the 2015 draft lottery win. Most Lowetidians developed their sophisticated understanding of scotch and rye whisky during this time.
EDMONTON OILERS: A team in the National Hockey League.
FIFTY: The number of points Ryan Nugent-Hopkins might someday score if all the planets align and he finally shaves his sideburns.
FOXY BOX: An entry to keep HH pacified. Stop trying to make Foxy Box happen. It’s not going to happen.
GALES OF NOVEMBER: A reference to the 1976 Gordon Lightfoot song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald,” this frightening phrase acknowledges the Oilers’ recent history of futility in the 11th month when playoff hopes come on deck and say “fellas it’s been good to know ya.”
GET GOOD PLAYERS, KEEP GOOD PLAYERS: A quotation originally attributed to legendary NY Islanders coach Al Arbour? [citation needed] Frustratingly simple advice ignored by Oilers management who too often employ an opposing strategy (one Ace becomes two Jacks become three sevens become late draft picks become nothing).
GORD: Yahweh/God/Allah.
GRIFFIN REINHART: Matthew Barzal and Sebastian Aho.
KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY: Wikipedia can tell you all about muskets, Oliver Cromwell and early 19th century poems, for Lowetidians it means don’t make unnecessary trades based on emotion or desperation. (see Taylor Hall, 16 & 33, Eberle/Strome/Spooner, etc., etc.)
KOMRADE HORCOV: Where do you think you are, Copper and Blue?
MATERIAL: The difference OP makes.
MICHELLE JENNEKE: A world-class Australian track and field athlete who deserves nothing but our utmost respect and admiration. Also, she’s crazy fucking hot good Gord.
MUSIC!: One-word Lowetidian exclamation of joy when things actually go right. Example: In the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2015 draft the Oilers chose defencemen Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear. Both were allowed to develop and overripen appropriately. Now both are real NHL defencemen just when we need them. Music!
OVERRIPEN: The practice of granting more than sufficient development time for players to mature, hone their skills, and build their confidence in the AHL or equivalent. The gold standard for this strategy was Montreal in the 1970s. Then there’s Jesse Puljujarvi.
PISSCUTTER: A hockey player so good he produces a stream of urine that shines like a shaft of gold when all around is dark and cuts through sheet metal like a Bond villain’s laser.
PUSHING THE RIVER: Perhaps the quintessential Lowetide term, it refers to a player’s ability to singlehandedly tilt the ice in his team’s favour. Taylor Hall was a river pusher; Jordan Eberle, as much as we loved him, was not. Bruce Springsteen, Joni Mitchell, and Neil Young are also river pushers. Andy Williams, as much as we love Breakfast at Tiffany’s, was not.
REAL AND SPECTACULAR: 1. Ample not gauche, firm not hard, sensitive not ticklish, with perfectly proportioned areolae and nipples.
2. James Neal’s SH%. [see Seinfeld episode “The Implant,” Feb. 25, 1993].
REGRESSION TO THE MEAT: Based on some analytics crap (watch the game, nerds) called regression to the mean. It is the tendency for outliers to stop lying out there. Example: Milan Lucic’s hands might score two goals this week but his head will soon regress to the meat.
RICKIBOX [TM]: Associated with the enigmatic figure Ricki the Bear, it remains ill-defined. Some believe it is simply the area in front of the goal while others insist it is a place to put a number so that it does not become lost. YMMV.
SAIL ON: The traditional Lowetide farewell salutation when an Oiler leaves the patch, often employing a geographically specific alliteration. If, for example, Joakim Nygard were to leave, the headline might be “Sail On, Stockholm Syndrome.”
SIDEBURNS: What Don Mattingly and Martin Marincin never shaved. [see Simpsons episode “Homer at the Bat,” Feb. 20, 1992].
STAN WEIR: Stan Weir bought straight-blade sticks and curved them with his iron will. You don’t know who Stan Weir is? You better pray he doesn’t find out who you are.
TABERNAC SATURDAY: An acknowledgement of the Oilers’ tendency to lose on Saturday night’s Hockey Night In Canada broadcasts. Not even the sensory assault of Don Cherry’s suits could overcome the need to shout this most sacrilegious of Quebecois profanities. Lowetidians guardedly believe these days are done.
VEGREVILLE: Las Vegas (but with perogy payouts at the Kaiser tables).
WE HOPED FOR THE BEST: But it turned out like always.
WE WAIT: What Lowetidians do indefinitely after a logical and perfectly obvious course of action is publicly suggested.
WOODMONEY: 1. Something something Woodguy and GMoney… something something brilliant and innovative… something something Puck IQ is amazing:https://lowetide.ca/2017/07/02/its-the-real-thing-woodmoney/
2. One trick to faking analytics knowledge is to tell stories that don’t go anywhere. Like the time I caught the Red Arrow to Red Deer. I needed a new box for my camping trip. So I decided to go to Moose Jaw, which is what they called Red Deer in those days. So I tied a perogy to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now to take the bus cost a WoodMoney, and in those days WoodMonies had pictures of Stan Weir on ‘em. “Gimme five Weirs for a Pisani,” you’d say. [see Simpsons episode “Last Exit to Springfield,” March 11, 1993]
YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary, an acknowledgement of differing assessments within a mutually-understood set of parameters. Taken from a common refrain in late 20th century car commercials. I think Ethan Bear is a serious Calder candidate and BoJack Horseman is the best show on TV, but YMMV.
BONE-US SECTION! – Entries added by BONE207:
LAST CHANCE TEXACO: A mythical gas station where you either catch the plane to stardom or catch the bus/hitch hike your ass out of the land of milk and honey that is the NHL.
HOUSE AT THE SIDE OF THE ROAD: Slow moving defensemen, forwards that have slow boots and generally anything slower than the speed of light as compared to CONNOR.
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR JAZZ: The premise that jazz music, often played by four musicians doing different songs, is a good equivalent of among different players doing different things in hockey to be successful.
WOODGUY: He is the echoing voice heard down the streets of the book, 1984. He tells you what you are doing wrong, how you should see things and has a house with a moat that features a complex to manufacture torches and pointy things.
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*Bump*
Because of awesome.
I would maybe add, “The Vaunt”, and “There are 4 lights!”
I know we have Pike’s Peak and The Camping Box, but I feel like we’re forgetting another classic one of LT’s stories though…
That’s real pretty.
The kid is a burner and from what I see, responsible. If his hands learn to remain calm and they teach him these things (are you listening JP???) he will be a good one. There is no substitute for speed.
Perhaps the Big Oil feel that they need to unload a few of the ‘old school’ before they bring him up. They are becoming a different, more mobile, puck distributing, jumping in sort of D now. But it wasn’t a guarantee. Now it is working we may see Benning or Lars replaced by a cheaper version.