The Edmonton Oilers are a team in the National Hockey League. They have many players from several different countries. The Oilers play in a giant building that resembles a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re going to get.
Before the season began, I predicted 88 points this season for the Oilers. We’re at exactly the halfway point (41 games) and the team has 44 points, exactly half. There are several ways one could write that story in a positive way, but the Oilers play in December makes it impossible. It is truly a one man show and general manager Ken Holland is going to need to get to work immediately if he wants to be a buyer at the deadline. Edmonton’s NHL team looks spent.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Broken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Grasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
- Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
A CONVERSATION
The most interesting hockey subject I came across yesterday was the comments section in the GDT. A discussion around Ken Holland and Philip Broberg got my mind wandering and I’d like to linger for a time and discuss it.
I wanted to go back to last spring, when we were discussing the Oilers at the draft. I don’t recall Philip Broberg’s name being in the conversation until Ken Holland arrived, and once he mentioned the name, I don’t recall any other names being mentioned. On the draft show, Louie DeBrusk mentioned Broberg pre-game, pre-pick and post-pick. Edmonton telegraphed it, just like MacT did with Darnell Nurse. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that, but Holland was working off two lists: Detroit’s and Edmonton’s. I think it’s fair to at least make the point that Holland might have been working off the list he was most familiar with, that of the Red Wings.
Holland hired Tyler Wright as Edmonton’s scouting director after the draft, he’s familiar with him from Detroit. Now Holland is an old scout himself, so I think we might be in for quite a ride with Holland-Wright at the draft controls.
I would describe Broberg as a ‘saw him good’ draft pick. He is fast, had a great Hlinka tournament and WJ’s, owned an 8.5 NHLE from his Allsvenskan boxcars and a shining scouting report that implied he was a complete prospect. That’s an attractive player.
This blog likes the math of the draft and I do think that players who are impact juniors in draft seasons (and not overage) have a far better chance to succeed as NHL players down the line. Here, let me show you the NHLE’s for Edmonton’s first-round draft picks since 2010. See if you can pick out the pure ‘saw him good’ selections:
- Taylor Hall 2010: 49.25
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011: 38.04
- Oscar Klefbom 2011: 4.24
- Nail Yakupov 2012: 43.51
- Darnell Nurse 2013: 15.97
- Leon Draisaitl 2014: 40.63
- Connor McDavid 2015: 67.62
- Jesse Puljujarvi 2016: 20.76
- Kailer Yamamoto 2017: 37.73
- Evan Bouchard 2018: 34.39
- Philip Broberg 2019: 8.5
There. Now, it’s easy to spot the ‘saw him good’ group, but these years later no reasonable person can argue Oscar Klefbom was a poor choice. Vladislav Namestnikov (NHLE: 23.29) was probably the best forward available at that time who was in the range. The Darnell Nurse choice had some more controversy, Max Domi (NHLE: 36) had a handsome set of boxcars but Edmonton passed. Broberg was chosen over Trevor Zegras (NHLE: 32.8), probably closer to the Domi pass.
None of that will matter if Broberg develops into a quality player like Oscar Klefbom, unless Zegras develops into a big-time offensive player. We wait. And we should expect a draft next summer like last summer. Saw him good. Tyler Kleven of the USNDTP is a current example of a non-math option who is getting first-round love. This is us. Or could be.
THE 2020 DRAFT
This is a strong draft at the top, I can’t tell you yet how deep it is because it’s not completely baked. Below are the kids who are tearing up the blacktop offensively. Here are the three best players in the draft. Despite last night, Edmonton won’t get to choose any of them.
1 L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL. He’s a wizard passer with the puck and can score goals with equal aplomb. Size, speed, skill, he has it all. Only downside? He’s an October 2001, so has less development time than some others. Whoever wins the lottery, this will be their choice.
2 LC Quinton Byfield, OHL. He’s an August 2002 and a big man (6.04, 215) already. He skates well, can pass, take a pass and has a dynamic ability to him. He might be the best player in the draft, partly because he’s several months younger than Lafreniere.
3 LC Cole Perfetti, OHL. Intelligent center with a terrific release, Perfetti is a January 2002. His wrist shot is already a great weapon in the OHL and he’s not fully grown (5.10, 177). Once he adds strength, he should be a formidable player. Has some range.
OILERS AFTER 41
- Oilers in 2015: 17-22-3, 37 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016: 21-14-7, 49 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 18-21-3, 39 points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in 2018: 19-19-3, 41 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in 2019: 20-17-4, 44 points; goal differential -8
I’ve grown weary of this part of the Oilers schedule. There’s something about this team around Christmas, the club just can’t wake up in time. Do you remember that crazy rant I did a couple of years ago? It was after a 5-0 loss to Buffalo iirc, early January, after two similar games around Christmas. Same basic game. Not ready, other team mows them over, everyone says the right thing and we all go home. I don’t know the cure for that. I don’t know what a coach can do, and I sure as hell know that trading a bunch of future for right now doesn’t work. There’s something about this team, and the worry is growing.
What the hell happened with Jesse Puljujarvi? Do winning teams lose their top prospects that way? And another thing: Why aren’t guys drafted in 2011 and 2013, who should be the leaders by now, ready for last night’s game? What do the Oilers do at the Christmas break that the Calgary Flames don’t, and vice versa? Why is Andrew Mangiapane better than any Oilers forward not named Connor McDavid? Where have all the Leon Draisaitl gone?
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-5-2, 14 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, 18 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in December 2017: 7-5-1, 15 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-6-1, 13 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in December 2019: 4-8-1, 9 points; goal differential -14
This isn’t really about talent, although that’s part of it. Teams that are outclassed by their opposition can outwork those clubs, the Los Angeles Kings did it last night. Edmonton can work hard, we’ve seen it. Ponderous. This team is ponderous. Most exciting player on the planet and they can’t piss a drop. Incredible.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-8-1, 9 points in 13 games
The coach killer Oilers are back in town. Ken Holland’s plan this year appears to be waiting to see how things turn out. I don’t think these recent performances will allow him to be ponderous. His team has allowed inertia to take hold.
December was a disaster. They can’t possibly be this bad. Can they? We are here….again.
OILERS 2019-20
Then why don’t you get lost? Your drivel is tiresome.
He’s just playing the role of Canuckleheads fan trying to foment dissent and rebellion in the masses. Usual schtick. We should really all just ignore him (I know sometimes I just can’t! ;-(
Pragmatic. Reasonable. Agreeable.
Thanks! Just pulled up.
I would have done the same thing. Winnipeg’s blue Heinola will be noticeable. Here’s a good preview:
https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-world-junior-championship-team-finland-final-roster/
Made the impromptu decision to go see Kazakh-Finland game in Trinec instead of touring metro Ostrava today. Not expecting a close one obviously, but for less than $10 cad per ticket for row 5 centre ice (purchased today, looks like some reserved blocks were released), the bar to get fair entertainment value is easy to achieve. Plus the burgers there are delicious.
I wish I had some time to know a bit more about Finland’s roster and who to look for, but I’ll figure it out. Or if any early risers know who to look for! Might see some pretty goals!
A new goalie is a priority.
I never called for the play-offs so, for me:
– finding out that Haas, Nygard and one/of Archibald/Russell (P) is worth keeping
– finding out that Bear is a player and that Jones is on the cusp
– finding out that Koskinen is a good 1a
– further developing Yamamoto and Benson
– getting something out of Neal
– burning through another year of Russell’s (K) contract plus Gagner’s and Manning’s contract
all serve to make this an okay year. Great? No. But a good step forward.
Kassian at $2.5 for 3 years is something I could live with. I see, however, where this will end up at $3.0 for 4 years and that will bother me a bit.
Nurse will probably be wanting $6m and a bit and will probably get that on a 6+ year deal and that will bug me (I prefer $5 and a bit over 5).
I do believe we are getting closer to needed to trade someone like Nurse in order to make a trade for an impact winger. I also believe there is at least one good FA pick up and that will help the team a LOT when it does come about.
I would go a bit higher than that even, but not for more than 3 years. I don’t think any of the goalie prospects will be ready before Koskinen’s contract is up… unless Starrett is, and we *should* know that by next summer.
Yes losing 4 first round draft picks in 9 years has a significant impact on a rebuild
Wait, so we traded OP for Verdad? That’s like the Reinhart-trade equivalent for blogs…
If we add two forwards to Drai, McDavid and RNH, our top six will look similar to all these teams and these are amongst the best in the league. I didn’t say two players would make us the best in the league. I said it would make us competitive.
Harpers Hair,
Russell becomes an eminently tradeable piece after July 1, 2020 when his NTC list goes from 10 to 15 teams, and his salary goes down to $1.5M.
Top 5 teams in the league are Washinton, St. Louis, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Colorado. These are their top 6 depth charts.
Bergeron
Krejci
Marchand
Debrusk
Pastrnak
Coyle
All 40 pt pace or better
Mackinnon
Kadri
Landeskog
Burakovsky
Raantanen
Donskoi
all 40 pt pace or better
Crosby
Malkin
Guentzel
Rust
Hornquist
Kahun
All 40 pt pace or better
O’Reilly
Schenn
Schwartz
Thomas
Tarasenko
Perron
All 40 pt pace or better
Backstrom
Kuznetzov
Ovechkin
Vrana
Oshie
WIlson
Alll 40 pt pace or better
Good teams don’t ice 2 goal scorers in thier top 6 forwards. I wouldn’t bank on Kassian keeping his pace next season, and James Neal is probably in the same boat. Do with the information what you will.
How did the Canucks get Miller? I’m sure it’s possible to do the same thing. Unfortunately, it likely has to wait until the offseason. There’s always top six wingers available every year.
And just because you say we can’t trade Russell doesn’t make it so. He’s a useful dman with one year left on his contract. Far worse players have been moved and his NTC clause expands to 15 teams next year.
If Kassian doesn’t sign for a reasonable contract, trade him at the deadline and use those assets to for his replacement.
We need two players. It ain’t rocket science.
If you re-sign Nurse and Kassian that cap room is gone.
Russel aint going anywhere.
GAGNER $3.15
MANNING $2.25
Have to trade RUSSELL @ $4 MIL (Thanks Pete!)
aint pretty but should.open up some room eve with Kassian anf Nurse sigjings
Jimmy:
So how, exactly. do you acquire two top six wingers?
Be specific and bear in mind the Oilers have zero cap space.
Most teams are not loaded with top six players. If we get two, that gives us five. Not great, but definitely in the range of other good teams.
Nygaard-McDavid-Kassian
New guy-Drai-New guy
Benson-RNH-Neil
Archibald-Sheahan-Khaira
This isn’t a world beating roster, but it’s good. It’s competitive. It allows you to introduce a young player like Benson in a position where he can succeed; on the third line with a good centre playing weaker competition.
It allows you to slot players like Sheahan and Archibald into positions more suitable to their skill level. Maybe you keep Haas or Chiasson in the lineup, but if they remain, it’s at the bottom of the lineup.
We are not that far away, despite the horrible results from December. This team is bad because they don’t have enuf top six players.
Condors game tonight was a beauty. Little bit of everything, mostly passion.
I have been critical of K Lowe, in particular his skating and clearing attempts, but tonight he was moving the puck well, but for two bad penalties that he took. Benson and Marody passed and created opportunities … either one would be a good call up, preferably both. Day played an excellent game, could he have potential as a winger?. I like Lagesson ‘s game, he positions himself well and has an edge to his game. Yamamoto was all over the opposition, but I don’t think his game transfers to the NHL yet (size/weight) , but he certainly meshes well with his linemates. Skinner was solid, but so was the team in front of him. One more forward who stood out was Currie. Bouchard is so “Coffey Like” it is unreal, hope he turns out just as good.
Wilde I look forward to your review of the game, as yours is by the numbers, mine by the eye ( by the way, did I mention I was blind in one, and cannot see out of the other ?)
I have no idea.
They should score more based on their roster…but they don’t.
Kings with 51 shots on goal and lose.
Seriously?
Lack of goal scoring skill?
Luck?
I was going to respond with the same thoughts, but I will just +1 your post.
If good players choose to leave it’s likely because they want to be somewhere they feel they have a better chance of winning.
Six players minimum.
Teams are always adding glue guys and PK and Faceoff specialists at the deadline.
Kassian has rental value
I would pay money to see what you see when McDavid is on the bench.
Chaser
Sheahan
Gagner
Archibald
JJ
Granlund
Nygard
Haas
Almost all would certainly clear waivers.
Two players…..wow.
You’re not wrong…I cant figure it out.
Yeah but…why are those things true.
On the surface they have decent goaltending and scoring but it just never works.
They’re currently outshooting the Canucks 44-24 and losing 3-2.
Something else going on here.
I initially thought “volume shooters” and “score effects”, but the more games I’ve watched featuring them they do generate quality chances. Definitely not as much of a tire fire as I thought they’d be this year.
Proviso – this is my eye test.
The Oilers need to trade Draisaitl to get some wingers to play with McDavid. They should simultaneously trade McDavid to get wingers who can play with Draisaitl.
It’s the Trade of the Magi.
Save percentage .889, that is a factor. 965 PDO too.
So how do you get those wingers?
At some point, we need to figure out the Kings.
They outshoot everyone but lose anyway.
What’s the deal ?
RAANTA 4 Goals on 16 shots
Will be interesting to see if AZ can win without Kemper
Not sure why you would trade RNH. He is 1 of 3 players on the roster who can play Top 6. He just needs NHL wingers.
For those that follow WHL, 15 yr old Matthew Savioe took a clean, open ice hit – Knocked unconscious. Got up and left game.
I don’t think Nuge given the contract is a deadline deal. I don’t necessarily want to trade any good player, but improvement beckons.
More any of the expiring contract players that anyone wants, if any. Or obvious salary dumps but that isn’t the norm at the deadline.
I think some might be of interest. Gagner is a skill player who could help a team lacking that, and also boost a PP. Depends on what is being looked for etc.
Condors up 3-2 after two, Currie with a goal and a fight, Skinner some nice stops, Benson and Yamamoto with apples. A recall is on the line, looks like several are submitting their resumes.
I think he’ll set up the summer at the deadline, and try to acquire a piece or two. He made two deadline deals (both sell) at the 2019 deadline.
I would never have guessed he was so well spoken based on his playing career. Can’t judge a book by its cover. Agree, he is excellent. I think Burke gets the Cherry job but Bieksa is rising.
Kevin Bieksa should be a regular HNIC panelist.
Quality.
Trading Nuge for futures no matter what you think of the team says where 2 years away from being 2 years away.
A 5 game winning steak and the teams back in business? At the end of the day Holland is going to put his stamp on this team; he hasn’t been here 25 years; I dont beleive he keeps the team the way it s constructed now
Purely for fan reasons I’d love Holtby in town. Sterling gent, I met him in Lloydminster – he was at a venue where I was playing a gig.
Apart from that, it’s all down to cost. He’s a prairie boy, so probably not completely against playing in Alberta.
Ryan strome is killing it this year. Guess playing with Looch and Jesse P wasn’t doing it for him in Edmonton lol.
Agree with all of this but not sure what the return would be at the deadline.
Nuge ?
I have one timeout of a long time poster and don’t wish to have it continue, so I’ll repeat what I have said in the past. DO NOT make personal comments about other posters, putdowns are not allowed. It is NOT okay to do it and I have to time you out if you do.
Please understand that you are free to start your own blog where you can say whatever you want about people. But not here.
Thanks.
I think Haas has too much utility to move at this point.
Any other expiring contract, not Connor or Leo.
No other player on the roster is a keeper, at the right price. Loyalty should be based on play, not character or being liked, in pro sports which has a very short career window, and doesn’t involve personal relationships as a foundation of the job like a salesperson perhaps.
Making trades isn’t a bad thing. Losing and losing trades is. At least too much losing trades is.
Again with the lawyer threats. This guy’s got no life, lol.
Harpers Hair,
Remember when I called Zibanejad a pisscutter this last offseason and you scoffed.
Oh fun times
You may want to dig a little deeper and see who is zooming who.