NHL teams may not get the combine, the interview process or a final good look at the 2020 draft eligible players. There’s obviously a large number of scouting reports and plenty of video, and I do hope math will play a factor in the process. The Oilers 2020 draft has a ‘magic bullet’ feel to it, as the team has dealt some quality beginning in the second round. So, the first-round pick must pierce the darkness and find a way.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
- Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
- Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
- Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
- Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
OILERS CURRENT SELECTIONS
No. 23 overall, No. 85 overall, No. 147, No. 178 and No. 209 overall. The important selection is that first rounder and there should be a good player there. In February I listed the 62 best players in the draft (and will have another list by the end of this month) and there are a bunch of forwards who math adores. Here’s a quick look at the top end NHLE’s.
This isn’t my rankings list, this is 32 forwards who are under consideration for my first round in 2020, plus a few that my guest on the Lowdown today (Steve Kournianos) has ranked in his first round from March.
I wanted to run this because it gives us a good idea about the math of the draft, but also shows there are areas that don’t make sense.
Remember the story I told you a few months ago about Bill James? He’d ask a question, build a formula to reflect what he wanted to see, run a thousand seasons and look at the results. If Tim Foli was ranked ahead of Dave Concepcion, he’d flag it and have a look at how the wrong result landed in his rational math formula.
Tweak formula, run more seasons. As much as I like math, there’s some tweaking to do after running NHLE.
Lafreniere is going No. 1 on merit, but trails Rossi in NHLE. Why? Well it isn’t age (Rossi is 18 days older than Lafreniere) and size isn’t the issue it was decades ago. Rossi is a center, shouldn’t he have more value?
Alexander Holtz (12:53) and Lucas Raymond (9:48) played in the SHL this season and their time on ice would certainly impact the boxcars. How do we adjust for that when ranking these two men?
Who will be available when Edmonton picks? I can tell you that some of the names above with 30+ NHLE will still be on the board at No. 23 because it happens every year. Arthur Kaliyev (NHLE: 40.3) went in the second round in 2019’s draft.
Seth Jarvis will probably be available at No. 23, Jan Mysak was No. 53 on Bob McKenzie’s mid-season ranking. If Mysak is still on the board at (say) No. 35, would you trade the rights to Jesse Puljujarvi for him? I would. If the Oilers could leave draft weekend with Jarvis and Mysak, that’s the smell of victory in the morning. Here’s the current NHLE for prospects to give you an idea about what kind of push getting Jarvis and Mysak represents.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s a busy morning on the Lowdown, beginning at 10, TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will chat NFL free agency and the change in power we’re seeing in the AFC East (I think). Steve Kournianos from The Draft Analyst will help us make sense of an impressive pool of talent available in the 2020 NHL draft. Daniel Gallen of Penn Live will tell us how Darius Slay fits the Eagles rotating db depth chart. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Crude oil up to $27.42. Canadian dollar back up over 70 cents US. a glimmer of hope?
Just wanted to update that I clicked the “I disagree with this” button when Facebook flagged the Medium article I shared on Monday and a notification just popped up now that says “Your post is now back on Facebook. We’re sorry that we got it wrong.”
All better! (No one died, right?)
oilersfan,
From The Lancet, published today (well, Thurs)
Antiviral drugs administered shortly after symptom onset can reduce infectiousness to others by reducing viral shedding in the respiratory secretions of patients (SARS-CoV-2 viral load in sputum peaks at around 5–6 days after symptom onset and lasts up to 14 days), and targeted prophylactic treatment of contacts could reduce their risk of becoming infected.
The implementation of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis has several requirements. The stockpile of drugs must be adequate, the safety of treatment must be very high, and costs should ideally be low. The antimalarial drug, hydroxychloroquine, is licensed for the chemoprophylaxis and treatment of malaria and as a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. It has a history of being safe and well tolerated at typical doses. Notably, the drug shows antiviral activity in vitro against coronaviruses, and specifically, SARS-CoV-2.4
Pharmacological modelling based on observed drug concentrations and in vitro drug testing suggest that prophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine at approved doses could prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and ameliorate viral shedding.
Clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia are underway in China (NCT04261517 and NCT04307693). We are reviewing the results from China as they emerge. The first study (NCT04261517) has showed positive preliminary outcomes (albeit not conclusive because of the small sample size) in terms of clinical management, with published data expected soon.
Preliminary news looks good.
Much better than the news for the combo HIV pair lopinavir-ritonavir has been.
The cool thing about the above is the reduction of infectiousness by infected patients, who along with health care workers would obviously be the first to obtain the drug. That would take so much strain of the health system.
(The WHO would not have enough data on healthy recipients, so that sort of “preventativeness” will likely remain unknown on their trial’s completion. The Minnesota trial will be helpful in adding that data point.)
Also, there would be a beautiful side effect…
Sub-Sahara Africa got creamed by Malaria when its hospital resources were getting creamed by Ebola. Death rates from Malaria shot up. Getting a two-in-one solution into Africa would be tremendous.
But right now…. We Wait.
I don’t think we will have to wait too long to find out one way or another if any of these trials have positive results.
Ability to scale provincial or national production in any solution would be huge too. Then you could eventually get it into the hands of the general public once production was there.
oilersfan,
Munny,
Thanks for this stuff both of you. This really does look promising.
Seems that production is being ramped up in the US already. I imagine elsewhere too.
https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/03/19/teva-mylan-coronavirus-covid19-malaria/
I am praying this chloroquine can work not just As a medicine to cure the illness but as a preventative drug people can take so they don’t catch it, like people take it before they go to Africa so they don’t get malaria.
University of Minnesota is doing a 1500 person study now giving it to family members of people who have Covid 19 to see if it prevents the family members catching it.
It’s been used for lupus and arthritis and a nurse says she was taking it for her arthritis and her whole family got covid 19 but she didn’t.
It can be made for 10 cents a pill and people hAve been taking it for 75 yeArs with little side effects unless a person takes it for over 5 years daily. I think this is our best hope to rid the world of the worst outcomes by giving it to as many seniors and high risk people as possible and allow the rest of us to build up a heard immunity so we can all get on with our lives without having to wait 18 months for a vaccine
Would be great to see. A huge amount of damage has already been done to the economy. It will be interesting to see what’s on the other side. It may look very different.
Very few straw dogs hunt.
Someone said something stupid (or their notion of modern excluded 1918) and therefore every country (all of them) that can’t stand by while something spits out ICUs for breakfast is wrong.
Also depends on what they mean by “unprecedented”, a word that gives them a lot of wriggle room.
2.
The Canucks?
Also 2.
I guess you could pick “last 27 years” and the Canucks are ahead 2-1. But we all know it’s difficult to find a window that even paints the teams as equal. Hell, you were trying just now and failed.
Well played.
Convenient how you left out the Stanley
With a 24 year signing age, only one year can be subject to the ELC parameters including performance bonuses etc. The new German did not only sign for one year b/c of not being able to burn a year of his ELC b/c they aren’t playing – the team likely wanted to keep the entire contract within the ELC parameters.
Brogan Rafferty did not sign a 2-year ELC contract, the second year of his contract was not subject to the ELC parameters.
It’s even weirder.
He actually signed a 1 year ELC on April 1st 2019, while still 23.
Then re-signed to his current 2 year contract (a standard contract) in July at age 24.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/brogan-rafferty
So if I’m understanding, the age sets the maximum contract length, but minimum is not specified? Like Laferriere could ask to sign for 1 year after being drafted?
There would be no advantage to Laferriere and other higher picks since they’re getting max bonuses, but for a 2nd or 3rd rounder who would get no bonuses written into their ELC this could actually make sense. But I’ve never heard of it. Is there an example of this for a non-college player? (unless I’m misunderstanding)
Two fairly long days of driving from Palm Springs and it feels pretty good to be home.
Thanks to all those who wished us well a couple of days ago before we started the drive north. The border crossing was smooth and well organized. Much quicker that I thought it would be but covered all the bases and there was printed material that didn’t say anything that isn’t on the net but it was there and being handed out to everybody as we crossed back.
Two weeks of isolation now but that will go quickly enough. I know it is pretty common to comment on how good it feels to get home after a trip but I have to say that this time it felt pretty good to be back n Canada when we finally made it this afternoon.
Glad you made it safely and smoothly.
Thanks. It was a weird trip as about 70% of the traffic north of Utah was Canadian. Last night in Idaho Falls the hotel was like a ghost town and pretty much everything but gas stations/convenience stores and hotels were shut down or shutting down.
No doubt it was weird. Strange times we’re in.
welcome home. Glad to hear it went well. I was supposed to fly down tp PSP Saturday to get my motorhome but did not go. My golf clubs are in it. Which will come first, golf season here or the opportunity to go down and get my clubs?
Excellent. That must’ve been one heckuva sigh of relief.
*thumbs up* Welcome home!
How many pennants have the Oilers won in the last 30 years?
Asking for Lowetide.
Two pennants and a Stanley Cup. 1990 & 2006.
lol. A Self-Troll?
I’m not impressed that borders were left open to tourists in the face of such a thing.
We’ve seen it recently in Canada with SARS.
Jet setting politicians didn’t want to. Our PM saw his wife travelling to an emerging hot spot and she got it. Did he not have intel we don’t? That would be sad and dangerous.
So we pay the price with our jobs and some of us maybe businesses.
Completely predictable, completely could have been mitigated.
Instead massive economic damage to those on the margins, and the lodging and hospitality sectors that bring a lot. Oil and gas. Two huge drivers.
Maybe the former was unavoidable. But of Canada and the US were awake at the wheel we could have been isolated fairly easily and avoided most of this.
And helped the others who would have had a hard time doing it comparatively. Like Europe.
In other words you were wrong.
His $700K one way contract is fully buryable in the minors.
A colleague not hockey interested proposed that the NHL play the game NHL 20 amd see what happens.
I proposed EA set the game to league stats as they were and start it and see who wins, millions would watch games.
He said he also intended that the league award the actual Cup based on the video game winner.
Oilers with a sniff?
Soon we’ll have more insightful numbers into our situation with corona.
I’m quite hopeful Canada half shutting down will be effective.
I’m also quite sure our neighbours have not done enough.
So the chances of hockey I see now as naught for this season, she gone.
Next year for sure.
Makes sense to me sorry. On phone, busy house always.
Unless you’re just disagreeing. Fine, but I’m correct in my considered evaluation of this.
Other than the above, everything you wrote made sense.
With the upward trajectory of the Draisaitl/McDavid Oilers it appears the Canucks are preparing to give the Oilers a jolly good game or two every upcoming playoffs, with moral victories for the West Coasters left right and centre.
Taylor Hall playing Biff with his Steve Austins all thinking they’re superstars above the game since the team itself is a complete shambles, etc.
Kevin Lowe and his stooges waiting in the wings to publicly announce that all is well.
I look forward to the upcoming Canuck’s success.
Same as it always was, he he.
He was subject to the ELC parameters for one year due to his signing age of 24.
You’ll notice his second year is a one-way contract which is not permitted under the ELC parameters.
I guess I mis-typed a bit – the contract length isn’t capped but the number of years of the contract being within the ELC limits is.
Nope, the maximum length of an ELC is determined by the age at signing and there is no distinction between amateur league.
First SPC Signing Age (Period Covered by First SPC and Years in the Entry Level System
and Subject to Compensation Limits)
18-21 (3 years)
22-23 (2 years)
24 (1 year)
25 and older (No required number of years, not in the Entry Level system and not subject to limits on compensation)
Yes.
Sloppy use of words around the stats about this thing have not been helpful, as the constant pounding by the sloppy media has not.
It is known Italy and Iran have jumped in the free stuff China boat and their populace has paid dearly for it. The massive travel between the 3 is why they are so devastated.
Our lack of vision is in this around the real threat is making us pay economically, with compassion and empathy to those that have lost love ones everywhere.
I deeply hope the powers that be have learned the lesson. This highly contagious flu, that puts our elders in ICU thus causing chaos, was imported because we value lifestyle over obvious sensibilities. Or our leaders do.
Next time the old world far east generates another serious illness, shut travel related to there down ASAP.
For all of us. And those that have employed hundreds, have generated a lot of economy and supported many families, that may lose it now all for others lack of care, understanding and conscience.
End rant.
Brogan Rafferty signed a two year ELC at the age of 24.
That’s not really true – only the higher end college signings get signed with a view to burning that year first year by playing at the end of the season.
Most of the signings have the contract kick in the following season.’
This was one-year because that was mandated by the terms of the CBA b/c he’s 24. If he was 25, he wouldn’t be subject to ELC parameters. If he was 22-23, he could sign for a max of a 2 year ELC.
I thought they were mandated 2 year ELCs out of college (just like they’re 3 yrs out of Jr). Guess I’m mistaken. A 1 year deal here is certainly in the spirit of 2 yr deals where the first burns with a cup of coffee post-graduation.
Its because of his age – 24 years old, can only sign a one year ELC.
Thanks. What is the age cutoff for that? Guys like Benning, Caggiula, Marody, Russell (?), Gambardella (?) all signed for 2 yrs no? Maybe I’m mistaken on some of those…
JP seeing his good buddy Laine having instant success probably didn’t help. Just added stress to his frail ego.
No.
One of these players is mature…and the other is a snowflake,
And playing hockey with kids on outdoor rinks.
Charming but extremely unusual. To me I thought lonely and said so at that time here.
Either a complete lack of supports or no interest from him. I’d guess his discomfort is directly related to this.
No Messier to take him under his wing.
We’re talking about Pujo here right?
They usually do and then burn off the first year with a few games at the end of the season.
Not an option this season.
Michaelis looks like a solid prospect. Nice get.
Lockwood sounds like a Dudek/Vesey level long shot. Could well see time in the ECHL.
Curious about the 1 year deal for Michaelis though. I thought college guys always got 2 year ELCs…
Could just be an artifact of present cap uncertainty and future TV contracts to be signed.
Bit of a risk on the kid’s side but could pay off big.
I, in no way, am letting the former management team off the hook for agreeing to these demands from Jesse’s camp but Jesse’s “people” have culpability as well – and its back much further than current bad advise.
and he’ll likely have similar numbers for the Comets……
The chinese parts, obviously.
haha
ty
You’re entitled to that opinion. I think it’s more complicated than that (but I don’t *know* either). I think Puljujarvi bears some of the blame too, but definitely suspect it’s shared (as per Leroy mentioning him hitchhiking).
The other thing is that blame doesn’t really matter either (IMO). Just what happens going forward. The players past actions inform the future to an extent, but I personally wouldn’t close the door on this player.
Thanks for this. Out of curiosity, what parts of China?
Dali, Yunnan. Beijing. Guangdong. Shanxi
Thanks. Any idea how many cases there were in those areas? Were they just shut down out of caution? (I understand if you’re not sure, just trying to get a sense of how affected the areas were).
Sorry JP, I wasn’t tracking the number of cases
Totally understand! Thanks again.
Following Peter Chiarelli around is tantamount to capital murder.
No wonder you want to trade him.
Given that the Western economies are being run on fiat currencies; now even President Trump embraces the opportunity to join in on the great Ponzi scheme of finance in order to buy time exactly the same way as he originally railed against lol
Fake news. I queued outside the butcher shop this morning for 23 minutes but was able to get everything I wanted.
It’s pretty cool of Puljujarvi to star in Finland because only a fool will discount that achievement for a super young player. The idea of bailing this prospect no matter how awkward his team has made it in self defence of their interests cannot be understated.
Holland needs to be creative here. Make it worth Puljujarvi’s time to consider coming back to play for the Oilers or, shake hands on his 2nd season playing in Finland with all good wishes, because Oilers are sitting in a 4th OA pick like he’s still worth at least a 20th OA pick.
ps: Naturally there will be a strong resistance to this thinking, since Oilers have been run into the ground for the last 20+ seasons lol
Okay there’s nothing wrong with tossing a talented person into the proverbial deep end from time to time. But an 18 year old slow witted athlete from halfway across the world who similar to Yamamoto had zero chance of stepping into a quality NHL team on a top 6 level you simply send down to the NHL for seasoning, and say if he blows the doors off the AHL he gets to come up after doing that for 40+ games.
Inserting him in and out of the top lines during regular season games is 10X more likely to break his confidence and from that point all the team has is a floundering prospect good for nothing.
Panic Never Helped Any Pandemic And Won’t Start Now
“CNN Business calls it “a pandemic unprecedented in modern times.” That would probably include the so-called “Spanish Flu” pandemic of 1918-19 that killed more than 500,000 Americans, and perhaps 20 million to 50 million worldwide. Coronavirus so far has killed fewer than 75 Americans, fewer than 7,000 people worldwide, and its growth internationally already is clearly slowing. But economic growth is another matter: We’re now in a bear market, with worldwide recession a serious possibility. For hysteria has now become the “conventional wisdom.”
https://issuesinsights.com/2020/03/16/panic-never-helped-any-pandemic-and-wont-start-now/
Michael Fumento and Steven Milloy both have ties to Monsanto and Big Tobacco and make a practice of “debunking” just about any concern whatsoever originating from the Volvo and kale set.
But you don’t even need to look at the big picture here. Fumento argue that America has a smaller problem than Italy because America has an extra 18 ICU beds per 100,000 (not necessarily equipped with ventilators, which is presently the key limiting factor).
If 5% of those 100,000 people end up in critical care, that’s 5000 people lining up impatiently on their wedding nights for 35 available beds after Reverend Moon conducts just a “small” local service.
———
Moonies hold biggest mass wedding since 1999 — October 2009
———
Hey, everyone, look at me! I’m less dogshit because I packed three condoms for spring break, instead of just one.
Actually, I crossed some wires there. But it doesn’t matter, because Fumento wrote this:
I don’t know, maybe because there’s a gap between the Chinese bubble and all the other bubbles yet to bloom, like every damn bubonic plague through the whole of the Middle Ages?
This clearly has got nothing to do with the creation of a successful NHL hockey team so I 100% doubt if Steve Yzerman would consider it. Or Ken Holland for that matter. Or anyone else with enough common sense to know you don’t play politics with rookies – instead you do everything possible to assist said rookies to achieve the making of a functioning NHL player.
Clearly former Oilers management operating under such overt corrupt ideology is destined to fuck up in other areas; being that both competence and incompetence are mathematically understandable conditions.
Rafferty will play more than 61 games next season.
Book it.
Rookie of the year. Book it.
Boobie Raft will win the Norris. Book it!
And his goalie will win the Vezina cuz Boobie Raft floats all boats! Book it!
To state that the Bruins didn’t see any point in signing him is not honest – Benning chose not to sign and followed the GM that drafted.
Benning has 61 NHL points. Rafferty may not play 61 NHL games…..
Benning was drafted by Boston but they didn’t see any point in signing him so the Oilers scooped him up.
He has 248 NHL GP so I would think it was also a smart bet but Rafferty is likely to have more offence.
So you’re saying Bug Riffiertony is the next Matt Benning? Sweet.
I heard he was the next Chara.
Yes…I would think a fully developed player who was the offensive player of the year in his league and has played in the World Juniors and two World Championships is equivalent to a high second round pick.
No guarantees but a very smart bet.
See Chris Tanev, Troy Stetcher and Brogan Rafferty 🙂 for reference.
Isn’t that the guy Leon was supposed to call?