Making the Call on the Back Drafts

We are at a point where we can make the call on the first six drafts of the previous decade. It takes a long damn time for five long years to find its way into the rear view window. We are here.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: The 2020 NHL broadcast rankings: The best and worst markets to watch the games
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
  • New Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
  • Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • Lowetide: Will Oilers drafts be less reliant on the WHL under new management?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
  • Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling

2010

Oilers grabbed Hall No. 1 overall, so there’s going to be fond memories no matter one decade later. I don’t think Pitlick or Merrill worked out completely, and don’t believe there was a clear winner at that spot. The Toffoli pick tips the balance in favor of the McKenzie list (Edmonton could have walked into the draft with the consensus. I once trumpeted this as a possibly special draft, but Pitlick, Marincin and Brandon Davidson (sixth round) were unable to establish themselves as NHL regulars. Davidson was so close to being a legit top-four blue before derailed by injury. A wonderful No. 1 overall, but the 2010 draft fell short of original promise.

2011

Nuge is a personal favourite and even with some seasons where he was less than stellar offensively I’ll suggest he has been a quality player. Klefbom later in the first round was another impressive addition, but the second rounder was a miscue despite quality on the board. Tobias Rieder’s late addition makes this a winning draft, but is awarded only a draw against the McKenzie list due to the Saad kicker.

2012

I think they were in an impossible situation. The Oilers picked the right guy, he just didn’t work out. Seriously. The draft gets a fail but I’m not going to hammer the team for picking Yakupov. Khaira and Aberg aren’t so strong you can make a call one way or another and Erik Gustafsson didn’t sign, so I’ll call it a wash with the McKenzie list.

2013

Oilers won the first round but the second round pick clearly favors the McKenzie list. Anton Slepyshev was a solid pick later but the McKenzie list wins it. I’ll give this a passing grade, the Nurse selection provided Edmonton with a top-four defenseman.

2014

This was a home run for the Oilers. Leon Draisaitl has emerged as a tower of strength for the current team and a ridiculous steal at No. 3 overall.

2015

In the history of a hockey team, walking to the podium and calling out the name McDavid is once in a lifetime. For all of the hype and expectation, he hasn’t disappointed. Not for one moment. A home run on the first pitch, ball still hasn’t landed.

I think the 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts contributed to the team we see today and so judge them as successful. A lot was left on the table, injury impacted 2010’s haul, and of course luck has a lot to do with this portion of the hockey industry. Getting impact players in 2014 and 2015, considering where the team picked 2010-12, is really kind of incredible.

The fourth Condors signing of spring, this is the most promising to my eye. A center, his NHLE implies he could be a plug and play on a skill line in the AHL. Astute addition.

OILERS PROSPECT NHLE (FORWARDS)

I’m not suggesting Brosseau and Fowlkes will skate on the skill lines, but the previous regime was handing out NHL deals to Colin Larkin and Nolan Vesey. This is better.

2016 DRAFT

This is a little like 2012 in that a very high pick is going to fall short of expectations. As was the case then, I don’t think anyone can hammer the Oilers for taking JP. I do think his NHL story will involve many more chapters. The rest of the draft is too soon to know. One more season before we make the call, this one is looking like an F.

2017 DRAFT

This draft has two years left and is the last one we’ll look at today. I like the chances of this one landing for Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today gets rolling at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis will pop in to talk about his latest article (link above) about the best-to-worst broadcast teams across the NHL. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will discuss which of the North American leagues are easiest to handicap. Cody Benjamin from CBS Sports will talk about the new NFL playoff format. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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105 Responses to "Making the Call on the Back Drafts"

  1. N64 says:

    Welcome to April everyone. The end of the beginning?

    April is the cruellest month, breeding
    Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
    Memory and desire, stirring

    @ScottGottliebMD
    We can end the national epidemic with tough measures in April, and gradually restart our activity in May and June. As we do, we must focus on getting technology and tools to make sure we can end the current spread more quickly, save lives, and keep it from ever happening again.

    Road map to the end game (20 pages):

    https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

    (Of late I’m keeping coronavirus posts to the reply button, but I know there’s a lot of interest in the slow restart after the sudden stop)

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Too bad about the 2019-20 season. I really wanted to see the team in the playoffs.

  3. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Too bad about the 2019-20 season. I really wanted to see the team in the playoffs.

    I understand, but this is more important.

  4. N64 says:

    5 years for the 2015 Class. Here. We. Are. Music.

    1 1 Connor McDavid
    117 4 Caleb Jones
    124 5 Ethan Bear
    154 6 John Marino

    Great hit rate for all of the retained first 6 round picks. Lost Marino along the way.

  5. N64 says:

    Your Death March was way too literal this year.

  6. dustrock says:

    Hopefully. I’d settle for some decent weather at this point.

  7. dustrock says:

    Safin looked like a late steal at that time.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    my 81 point prediction looks pretty good

  9. Ben says:

    A bright spot from the season, regardless of what happens next:

    The team performed well enough that you have to think 97 feels encouraged about the future.

    My deepest Oiler-derived dread is that McDavid asks out if they keep floundering. That feels far less likely, today.

    Holland and Tippett (in particular) deserve big credit for righting the ship.

  10. geowal says:

    Agreed. In spite of everything else, if I could sit in the sun on my desk I’d be relatively content.

    Hopefully the weather starts to turn the corner next week and the virus follows suit (not implying a relation).

  11. geowal says:

    Based on McKenzie I’d say he still was, but some just don’t work out. And his book isn’t written yet.

  12. defmn says:

    It seems to me that McTavish took a fair amount of flack for not choosing the consensus picks when he selected Draisaitl and Nurse but the look back says he knew what he was doing.

  13. defmn says:

    Ben:
    A bright spot from the season, regardless of what happens next:

    The team performed well enough that you have to think 97 feels encouraged about the future.

    My deepest Oiler-derived dread is that McDavid asks out if they keep floundering. That feels far less likely, today.

    Holland and Tippett (in particular) deserve big credit for righting the ship.

    Not to mention whoever is responsible for picking Bear, Jones and Yakomoto. 😉

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting that so many love the McKenzie list (as they should as its an average of the list of top scouts from 10-12 NHL teams) but, yet there are quite a few places where the Oilers not sticking to that list was of benefit.

    The major one was Drai over Bennett – that was a massive decision for the organization.

    Other than that major win, I would say the more material differences favor the McKenzie list:

    Toffoli over Marincin
    Sadd over Musli
    Buchnevich over Roy

    On the other hand, there are some big wins for straying from the McKenzie list:

    Nurse over Nikuschkin (Hart Trophy candidate and all)
    Yamamoto over Vesalainan
    Klefbom over Biggs

    Actually, now that I look at those two lists, maybe the Oilers have done better overall than sticking to the McKenzie list?

  15. jp says:

    “I’m not suggesting Brosseau and Fowlkes will skate on the skill lines, but the previous regime was handing out NHL deals to Colin Larkin and Nolan Vesey. This is better.”

    Hear hear.

    Nice update on the drafts too. You can always quibble but the Oilers drafting in this period hasn’t been bad.

    Draisaitl was an inspired pick at #3 (and not the consensus). That big hit buys a lot of leash for any other misses.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    Jon’s new article on the Athletic rating all the NHL broadcast crews is a masterpiece.

    Highly recommended.

  17. dustrock says:

    Agreed.

    I mean Drai over Bennett wasn’t a huge reach, let’s be honest.

    And same thing with Nurse. I wanted Monahan. I was curious about Risto because he was RHD. Horvat wasnt’ sure if he’d be dynamic enough.

    It wasn’t a huge outlier to take Nurse there.

    Yamamoto seems like a win for now for sure.

    And the Klefbom pick is one of their best picks ever I’d say.

  18. Oilpower says:

    Let’s be honest, Edmonton had the mcdavid pick and still screwed up the 2015 draft and that takes some skill!

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    Will read – thanks.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    The GM screwed it up, the scouts most certainly did not.

  21. dustrock says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jon’s new article on the Athletic rating all the NHL broadcast crews is a masterpiece.

    Highly recommended.

    It’s incredible. Canadian hockey fans sure do not like their local broadcasts.

    But Oilers fans are more perceptive than even the rest of Canada. 😉

  22. Pescador says:

    N64:
    not as good as this:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

    Spooky,
    Are you at liberty to say anything about why you predicted only 71 games yet?

  23. Pescador says:

    I like Kevin Quinn & Loui,
    they get get negative reviews because Remeda needs to constantly make it about himself & San Josè
    [Did you know he used to an assistant coach there!]
    even Mean Gene seems like the kind of guy that would help you move that old hideA bed couch out of your basement just because you asked

  24. buck yoakam says:

    Pescador,

    ok that is weird man!

  25. defmn says:

    OK. This will keep me checking back all day. 😉

  26. dustrock says:

    I like DeBrusk, I think he does a pretty decent job.

    Quinn is pretty mediocre at best. Calls wrong players still, don’t think he’s very dynamic.

  27. dustrock says:

    N64:
    not as good as this:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

    Bill Gates did a seminar on the next pandemic in October 2019. He predicted it would be a COVID type of virus.

    NIT64 in October 2019 predicts 71 games for the NHL season, a strangely specific number.

    The only possible conclusion is that Bill Gates started the COVID-19 spread for mumbledy-mumble-reasons-which-shall-be-revealed and that NIT64 is actually Bill Gates.

  28. buck yoakam says:

    Many moons ago CBC Radio Edmonton did a yearly show show called “come to my house”. My wife (with the aid of our children) managed to win this contest. This was apprx a 4 hour show beginning very early in the am …trucks were unloading gear and setting up the night before the big event (pre digital days) …the radio crew were aware that myself and my bros all played music around town so three of us did all the intros and outs and I was also asked to do the early sports reports…at this time the oil and flames were the biggest deal in the nhl ….anyway, long story short , we had a preset time when my son (maybe 7 years old) was going to tell a joke. The premise was the announcer would ask him what do you think of the Calgary team and he was to answer “I think they will flame out” needless to say this was live and all his class etc were listening and his answer :the flames suck like ***t….you should have seen the faces on the crew ….priceless…sorry, just had to tell that one

  29. Pescador says:

    N64:
    Welcome to April everyone. The end of the beginning?

    @ScottGottliebMD
    We can end the national epidemic with tough measures in April, and gradually restart our activity in May and June. As we do, we must focus on getting technology and tools to make sure we can end the current spread more quickly, save lives, and keep it from ever happening again.

    Road map to the end game (20 pages):

    https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

    (Of late I’m keeping coronavirus posts to the reply button, but I know there’s a lot of interest in the slow restart after the sudden stop)

    40 separate papers & studies referenced
    After reading through I am reminded of how grateful I am to live in Canada.
    Although Federal & Prov. gov’t response has not been perfect, at least they have listened to medical experts and have tried to take a common sense approach to our collective health and safety.
    Could be so, so much worse.

    I am curious about the part of the tweet msg that says
    “And keep it from ever happening again”
    In your opinion, is that a statement about : ‘American being unprepared’ or
    ‘preventing another global pandemic’?
    I didn’t find anything in the report about shutting down the Wet Markets in Asia

  30. Pescador says:

    NIT64 is Bill Gates
    I don’t see how this could be anything but truth

  31. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Biggest shocker since we found out Einhorn is Finkle!

  32. pts2pndr says:

    Injuries derailed his career but there is still hope. In two years he could make a nice addition to the bottom six. Big kid and can skate. He also has a pretty good hockey IQ by what I observed in very limited viewing.

  33. Pescador says:

    This is just fantastic!

  34. DaVinci says:

    Thank you, thank you, thank you! Laughed lik crazy. Those where the good old days before the 10 second delay!

  35. pts2pndr says:

    I’m ok with Debrusk. Remenda has a voice that peels paint, continues to talk when the play is on and not about anything pertaining to the play. More an old lady gossip hound than a color man. Just a few of his less than redeeming qualities. His favourite team seems to be any team playing the Oilers.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Based on McKenzie I’d say he still was, but some just don’t work out. And his book isn’t written yet.

    It sure isn’t – he just finished his first year pro after, essentially, losing an entire development season to injury (his last year in the CHL).

    It wasn’t a great year, I mean, he didn’t even graduate to the AHL from the E but, again, first year pro and time to recover.

    Here is hoping he can put up 40 plus points in the AHL next season.

  37. defmn says:

    Pescador:
    After reading through I am reminded of how grateful I am to live in Canada.
    Although Federal & Prov. gov’t response has not been perfect, at least they have listened to medical experts and have tried to take a common sense approach to our collective health and safety.
    Could be so, so much worse.

    I think that history will show that pretty much every political jurisdiction listened to medical experts. The problem is that if you ask 10 experts – on any subject – their opinion on an unprecedented event you will get at least 7 different answers and the four that are the same are most likely to be the least accurate since they will be based upon historical information which is, by definition, of little use when confronted by unprecedented events.

    Having worked for and with politicians I am pretty confident in this position.

    They always get advice and information from their bureaucracies which are full of ‘experts’ and expertise – even when they don’t want it.

    I’m sure you have seen the short video on twitter and elsewhere of New York City’s chief medical officer inviting everybody to join her at the St. Patrick Day’s parade about a week before it was to take place. She would have been one of the medical experts advising.

    And it was pretty easy to predict there would be a pandemic at some point in the future. It’s just that such information is completely useless without details of specifics of when and what kind.

    jmo

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Remember the Brett Kissel game a few weeks ago where it felt like some sort of career achievement for Kissel broadcast?

    Well it seems there was a reason – Kissel will be doing the color on all Oiler home games next year.

    I’m assuming this is in replacement of Remanda (who did all Oiler non-national games)…..

  39. buck yoakam says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    that is sweet!….so hoping this is the case…no more ferengi on the broadcast!

  40. N64 says:

    Timely announcement. We all needed a pick me up today.

  41. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That sounds horrible.

  42. dustrock says:

    Funny timing on the announcement.

  43. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Remember the Brett Kissel game a few weeks ago where it felt like some sort of career achievement for Kissel broadcast?

    Well it seems there was a reason – Kissel will be doing the color on all Oiler home games next year.

    I’m assuming this is in replacement of Remanda (who did all Oiler non-national games)…..

    Awesome! What day is it today?? Is this the same reason I woke up to saran wrap on the toilet seat and a frozen jug of milk in the fridge?

  44. Munny says:

    Pescador: I am curious about the part of the tweet msg that says
    “And keep it from ever happening again”
    In your opinion, is that a statement about : ‘American being unprepared’ or
    ‘preventing another global pandemic’?
    I didn’t find anything in the report about shutting down the Wet Markets in Asia

    There’s going to be more formal protocols in place especially with regards to travel limitations. The West is not going to leave this in the hands of China or the WHO again, both of whom failed badly in this case.

    Wet markets should probably be shut regardless, but I do not believe we have evidence yet that gives us certainty that wet markets are the source (although even if they aren’t, they’re likely to be blamed). We need postmortems and serological research. Typically when a virus leaps species, there’s evidence of several failed attempts by various strains of the virus… we do not have that evidence yet.

  45. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Are we sure this isn’t an April Fool’s announcement?

  46. pts2pndr says:

    This is obviously an April fools joke!🙄

  47. N64 says:

    Pescador: I am curious about the part of the tweet msg that says
    “And keep it from ever happening again”
    In your opinion, is that a statement about : ‘American being unprepared’ or
    ‘preventing another global pandemic’?

    Both. That refers to phase 4 where the topics are:

    * Develop Vaccines for Novel Viruses in Months, Not Years.
    * Modernize and Fortify the Health Care System.
    * Establish a National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center.
    * Governance.

    The first item is a global research priority. This was the first pandemic where:

    * genetic sequencing was available in days after first strike
    * tests were designed and built before national labs even had access to the virus
    * software built candidates vaccines without access to the virus

    The logical follow on is how do you build technology and procedures to safely winnow though all the candidates to find one that works in months not years.

    Effective. Safe. Available. How do you get there? It’s a moon shot but for a fraction of lost GDP can we build the tech to triple track? So that we’re simultaneously building and testing antibodies (short term repair & early therapy) and the antigens that will generate them in people (vaccines) on platforms backed up by scalable animal/human safety/effectiveness testing, human testing and manufacture. A lot of those scaling problems have analogue when sorting through potential drug treatments as well

  48. jtblack says:

    2016 – ” One more season before we make the call, this one is looking like an F. ”

    is that based on IF Benson makes NHL or not?

  49. RonnieB says:

    dustrock: Bill Gates did a seminar on the next pandemic in October 2019.He predicted it would be a COVID type of virus.

    NIT64 in October 2019 predicts 71 games for the NHL season, a strangely specific number.

    The only possible conclusion is that Bill Gates started the COVID-19 spread for mumbledy-mumble-reasons-which-shall-be-revealed and that NIT64 is actually Bill Gates.

    Or could it be some sort if technical wizardry that enabled him to insert a new post into an old column for April 1st ?

  50. N64 says:

    Go Kraken!

  51. N64 says:

    Said it was timely. 😉

  52. N64 says:

    N64says:
    March 16, 2020 at 9:28 am
    hunter1909,

    Hunter, Your Death March support team needs to restore your site from backups. It’s been hacked:

    You have my entry wrong:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

    JORDANsays:
    March 16, 2020 at 11:11 am
    ROFL

    Nicely edited. I especially like your bit about the 71 game season.

    Well played.

    N64says:
    March 16, 2020 at 3:03 pm
    Death March gets serious in March. How could that have possibly have needed further explanation?

  53. jp says:

    That’s amazing! 🙂

  54. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Great post today. Nice to look back on the process with some objectivity.

    Back in the days before I found the blog, I was reliant on word of mouth and coverage by the MSM. Interesting thing is there were plenty of WTF moments in drafting by the team (from my perspective) throughout the whole period.

    Here’s my retrospective of what I’d wanted at the time. I’m prepared to look foolish in the process, but the difference in end result would be interesting. Willing to bet we wouldn’t have CMD, so as I’ve said before I don’t back date any criticism until 2015 onward.

    2010 – Seguin: we needed a #1C more than a winger.
    2011 – Larsson: needed a #1D more than another forward (sorry Nuge). Also wanted Boone Jenner in round two.
    2012 – Dumba: Really wanted to trade down for him, whether it was feasible or not.
    2013 – Monahan: was happy with Nurse as next man up.
    2014 – Bennett: for shame. I totally bought the MSM hype that he was the next Gilmour.
    2015 – Connor. Clearly. At #16: Evgeny Svechnikov was my front runner, Samsonov was my dark horse… great place to draft a potential #1G with a second pick in the first round. Also on my radar was Chabot and Konecny. This was the beginning of me really paying attention to the blog. Carlo and Blackwood were my hopefulls for the 2nd round pick.
    2016 – Tkachuck or PLD. I didn’t ever think JP would fall so I was looking elsewhere, but when PLD went third I was hoping for Turtle. He would have been a great fit. #32 I wanted DeBrincat… his numbers away from Connor showed there was something special going on, and built in chemistry with 97 was a bonus.
    2017 – Robert Thomas: both based on need and size bias. Was happy with KY once he was who remained based on LT pimping his mathy goodness pre-draft.
    2018 – Whalstrom/Dobson: wanted either because I was convinced of Bouchard’s supposed skating deficiencies. Slipped back into the MSM narratives a bit, ha. Happy to be proven wrong (although the jury’s still out).
    2019 – Krebs/Newhook/Tracey: I liked how Krebs was able to carry such a poor team, plus at international competition it was like the puck just followed him around the ice. The other two also stood out to me as value at the same competitions. When Lavoie fell to us in round two I was instantly pleased with the haul. Will be interesting to see how it pans out over time.

    Who did you guys prefer?

  55. jp says:

    Also if Puljujarvi returns to the NHL, and how successfully that goes. I’d think.

    Maybe add Berglund, if he signs and is/looks like an NHLer.

  56. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
    — NIT640K, apparently.

    There you have it folks, irrefutable proof that our own NIT640K is actually Bill Gates.

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Out of the mouths of babes. And the fact that he spoke the truth makes it all the better.

  58. SkatinginSand says:

    I actually think that Remenda is ok as a between period analyst. His background in coaching helps when he is breaking plays down. However, his mumbling ramblings during play drive me crazy. Louie has greatly improved, he is no Ferraro, but he isn’t just a cheerleader any more.
    I find Gene’s opening monologue to be incredibly painful. Puns need to be subtle and used with discretion, not thrown in your face constantly.
    I find the quality of the actual broadcast to be the biggest problem. As noted in the article, it would be nice if we could actually watch the faceoffs. The camera is often wandering around, showing the bench while there is a two on one in progress, for example. Their tendency to show powerplays from behind the goalie is terrible, you can’t see anything that is going on. The between period segments are completely predictable and painful, listen to a player telling us they need give 110%, listen to Gene and Drew killing time, go back to the next period. This is a company that is willing to spend a fortune to get the broadcast rights, then present a third rate product.

  59. godot10 says:

    The federal government was listening to the wrong experts.

    Their experts still say no masks. Their experts said asymptomatic people could not spread the virus. Their experts said no need to check and force self-isolation of people returning to Canada.

    The federal government has been dissembling for two months on the inadequacy of the nationial stockpile of masks and PPE. Until today when the media finally forced the Minister to answer a direct question.

  60. dustrock says:

    Stop ruining my time travel conspiracy

  61. jtblack says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    2010 – TAYLOR vs TYLER. Didn’t care as both seemed excellent.
    2011 – RNH. Consensus #1
    2012 – YAK. Consensus #1
    2013 – Monahan: was happy with Nurse as next man up. AGREED
    2014 – DRAI. but thought BENNETT and him would be very similar in NHL.
    2015 – EICHEL. APRIL FOOL’S !!!!!!!!! McDAVID. #16 BARZAL #33 CARLO. I also wanted SAMSONOV and would have reached @ #16.
    2016 – JP. Big. Skate. Score. Dominate Peers. Thought JP would be excellent.
    2017 – TOLVANEN. Just thought he could be a Pastrnak Gunner. Hasn’t worked out.
    2018 – WHALSTROM. Supposed to be excellent scorer.
    2019 – ZEGRAS / KREBS.

  62. tileguy says:

    I think the gm had a lot of help from the FoK

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2020-nhl-draft/roby-jarventie/

    I’m really liking this kid. I wouldn’t be disappointed if Ken traded for a 2nd round pick to land him – I don’t think he’ll last until #82. What do you guys think?

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Nice follow up, thanks. I can see and agree with much of your reasoning. I think the obvious takeaway from my hypothetical is that drafting is hard.

    Still interested in other’s preferences as well. Would be neat to see how things sift out in the aggregate.

  65. digger50 says:

    buck yoakam:
    Many moons ago CBC Radio Edmonton did a yearly show show called “come to my house”. My wife (with the aid of our children) managed to win this contest. This was apprx a 4 hour show beginning very early in the am …trucks were unloading gear and setting up the night before the big event(pre digital days) …the radio crew were aware that myself and my bros all played music around town so three of us did all the intros and outs and I was also asked to do the early sports reports…at this time the oil and flames were the biggest deal in the nhl ….anyway, long story short , we had a preset time when my son (maybe 7 years old) was going to tell a joke. The premise was the announcer would ask him what do you think of the Calgary team and he was to answer “I think they will flame out” needless to say this was live and all his class etc were listening and his answer :the flames suck like ***t….you should have seen the faces on the crew ….priceless…sorry, just had to tell that one

  66. digger50 says:

    Good one – I have to share another.

    Popcorn playhouse sometime in early seventies I went on as a youngster. The host asks a young boy of about 7 what his dad does for work.

    “He drives a big truck” says the boy
    “Oh I bet he’s away from home quite a lot then” says the host
    The boy replies “yes”

    “Well at least you get to sleep in Mum’s bed while hes away right?”
    The boy replies ” Oh no, uncle Mike does that”

    Truly i was too young to get understand it, but my father retold the story so many times I still laugh. He was in the back with the other parents.

    Live TV

    (trying to reply to Buck here)

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    It seems to me that McTavish took a fair amount of flack for not choosing the consensus picks when he selected Draisaitl and Nurse but the look back says he knew what he was doing.

    but, but, but, Nichushkin is in the Hart Trophy conversation……..

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Not to mention whoever is responsible for picking Bear, Jones and Yakomoto.

    From accounts, Bob Green was clamoring hard for Jones (I think it was Green).

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Agreed.

    I mean Drai over Bennett wasn’t a huge reach, let’s be honest.

    And same thing with Nurse.I wanted Monahan.I was curious about Risto because he was RHD.Horvat wasnt’ sure if he’d be dynamic enough.

    It wasn’t a huge outlier to take Nurse there.

    Yamamoto seems like a win for now for sure.

    And the Klefbom pick is one of their best picks ever I’d say.

    Sure, Nurse and Drai were not huge reaches, not at all.

    At the same time, they were deviations from the “McKenzie List” and this blog was comparing the two (and we even here the argument “if they just stuck to the McKenzie list, they’d be better off”).

    At the end of the day neither Drai nor Nurse were the consensus at their spot. Drai is a slam dunk win whereas Nurse is over Nichuskin (but maybe not over Risto or Horvat).

  70. yeraslob says:

    Hmmmm… Can you tell us, Bill, why you don’t vaccinate your children?

  71. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: From accounts, Bob Green was clamoring hard for Jones (I think it was Green).

    Yeah, I have read that but I was never sure where the info came from. I’ve also read that it was Howson. Not sure we’ll ever get to know other than anecdotally.

  72. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, Nurse and Drai were not huge reaches, not at all.
    At the same time, they were deviations from the “McKenzie List” and this blog was comparing the two (and we even here the argument “if they just stuck to the McKenzie list, they’d be better off”).

    The Drai pick may turn out to be the single most important drafting decision of the decade.

  73. Lowetide says:

    I think it has more to do with Puljujarvi. Benson should have a career but I don’t think he could do enough to save a draft all by his lonesome.

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    The federal government was listening to the wrong experts.

    Their experts still say no masks.Their experts said asymptomatic people could not spread the virus.Their experts said no need to check and force self-isolation of people returning to Canada.

    The federal government has been dissembling for two months on the inadequacy of the nationial stockpile of masks and PPE.Until today when the media finally forced the Minister to answer a direct question.

    Regarding economics which is directly responsible for what you’re saying, the correct word is not capitalism, it is corporatism. And trade deals that limit a country’s sovereignty to act in it’s self interest which is the essential point as to why there are countries.

    People can’t be asked to mask up when there aren’t any. Governments that think companies can take care of serious issues for them have their answers now in drastic terms.

    It always takes dire situations to reset priorities for places that go for decades without anything that dire happening.

    We can hope we get a reset again on what matters most to the well being of Canadians after this. There are certain sectors of the economy that can’t be allowed to operate without restrictions and oversight.

    I’m not talking about too much, but that Canadians are guaranteed certain protections regardless of what companies that are designed and legally mandated to seek profit want to pursue.

    Really it’s common sense, but it seems to take emergencies that directly impact us, to remind us, after long periods of easy life.

    Same as it always was.

    I’m thankful Canada overall is responding well overall as things evolve. And feel sorry for our US neighbours and all of the other countries in the weeds.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Solid write-up by Alex Thomas re: the new Condors and the AHL deals:

    https://thesportsdaily.com/2020/04/01/condors-add-three-from-ncaa-ranks/

    LT sounded pretty stoked about Brosseau this morning….

  76. Pescador says:

    defmn:
    It seems to me that McTavish took a fair amount of flack for not choosing the consensus picks when he selected Draisaitl and Nurse but the look back says he knew what he was doing.

    I agree with this blasphemy

  77. Pescador says:

    Munny: There’s going to be more formal protocols in place especially with regards to travel limitations.The West is not going to leave this in the hands of China or the WHO again, both of whom failed badly in this case.

    Wet markets should probably be shut regardless, but I do not believe we have evidence yet that gives us certainty that wet markets are the source (although even if they aren’t, they’re likely to be blamed).We need postmortems and serological research.Typically when a virus leaps species, there’s evidence of several failed attempts by various strains of the virus… we do not have that evidence yet.

    Thank you NIT64 for your response to my question.
    Munny,
    This is was what I was curious about,
    Also, that is fascinating
    I just assumed that there was consensus on the source of the virus that has brought the world economy to its knees.
    Dammit, why can’t I ever just have 1 thing to point my finger at and say:
    “That, fuck that shit right there!”
    Wet markets are a disgrace of humanity

  78. Pescador says:

    defmn: I think that history will show that pretty much every political jurisdiction listened to medical experts. The problem is that if you ask 10 experts – on any subject – their opinion on an unprecedented event you will get at least 7 different answers and the four that are the same are most likely to be the least accurate since they will be based upon historical information which is, by definition, of little use when confronted by unprecedented events.

    Having worked for and with politicians I am pretty confident in this position.

    They always get advice and information from their bureaucracies which are full of ‘experts’ and expertise – even when they don’t want it.

    I’m sure you have seen the short video on twitter and elsewhere of New York City’s chief medical officer inviting everybody to join her at the St. Patrick Day’s parade about a week before it was to take place. She would have been one of the medical experts advising.

    And it was pretty easy to predict there would be a pandemic at some point in the future. It’s just that such information is completely useless without details of specifics of when and what kind.

    jmo

    Solid opinion

  79. defmn says:

    Pescador:
    Dammit, why can’t I ever just have 1 thing to point my finger at and say:
    “That, fuck that shit right there!”
    Wet markets are a disgrace of humanity

    Because then you couldn’t go to a farmer’s market this weekend which is just the local name for a wet market. 😉

  80. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    People can’t be asked to mask up when there aren’t any. Governments that think companies can take care of serious issues for them have their answers now in drastic terms.

    Homemade masks are good enough to help if everyone is wearing them.

    Suppose they are only 50% effective. If everyone is wearing a mask, than the asymptomatic carrier reduces the number of people he infects by the airborne droplet route by 50%. When R0 is greater than 2, significantly reducing the transmission by one of the infection pathways helps.

    It is not an expert scientific opinion to oppose masks for all. It is an ideological political one.

    The non-masked countries are all on the same failing trajectory. Canada is doing no better than the US or Europe. We are only two weeks behind on the trajectory. The federal government just does PR better, and has a subservient media class (all of who are dependent in whole or in part for their funding from said government).

    The masked countries are the only ones fighting the virus to a standoff.

    My mask protects you. Your mask protects me. Even if they are homemade masks, and do so less than perfectly. The perfect, in this case, is the enemy of the good.

    Masks help because there are asymptomatic carriers (or nearly so). So until there is nearly unlimited rapid testing to identify the asymptomatic carriers, masks are necessary.

  81. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2020-nhl-draft/roby-jarventie/

    I’m really liking this kid. I wouldn’t be disappointed if Ken traded for a 2nd round pick to land him – I don’t think he’ll last until #82. What do you guys think?

    The Mestis is the Finnish 2nd Div. right?

    The numbers he posted vs men are crazy impressive. Seems he was one of 7 or 8 guys over a PPG in the league. And one goal off 2nd in the league, with the guys ahead playing 13-14 more games.

    No idea if he can skate, but he’s got some size and apparently can score. Sounds like a great target in the 2nd round.

  82. N64 says:

    Our usual influenzas (H1,H2,H3) have to be tracked in swine and people as strains cross back and forth recombining.

    Stuff thats harder to track comes from flying things Bats (often through intermediaries) and Birds (often through domestic fowl).

    All of this needs better tracking and better response and management.

  83. defmn says:

    godot10:

    It is not an expert scientific opinion to oppose masks for all.It is an ideological political one.

    Or a pragmatic one because we sent most of ours to China a couple of months ago so we don’t have enough.

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    Yeti: The Drai pick may turn out to be the single most important drafting decision of the decade.

    Only if the abundance of riches is turned into a perennial playoff favourite.

    That has not yet happened and there is not much evidence that it is imminent.

    The Leafs have Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares but are so top heavy they are creaking under the weight.

    With Draisaitl and McDavid and their cap hits, the Oilers are in a period where they need to take swift action to compete now.

    As the cap stagnates, the teams with a more balanced salary structure will have a tremendous advantage.

    The Bruins are an excellent example of this.

  85. N64 says:

    They tell people who are not sick this story to conserve the undersupply to hospitals. Singapore does the same for the same reason, but Singapore did actually deliver 4 to each household.

    Within days the CDC will recommend alternatives for the rest of us not made from the raw materials used for n95 and surgical masks.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/trump-coronavirus-masks/index.html

    “Hey, you sass that hoopy Ford Prefect? There’s a frood who really knows where his towel is”.

  86. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    As the cap stagnates, the teams with a more balanced salary structure will have a tremendous advantage.
    The Bruins are an excellent example of this.

    It’s true, I wish the Oilers 1st line had 2 guys who’ll be 35 and 32 when next season starts. And a 2C who’ll be 34. And whose top scoring D is a UFA, plus a 1st pair D who’s 43. Perennial favourite going forward for sure.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Drai pick is a massive win no matter how the team does going forward.

    With that said, there is every indication that this team will indeed be a legit playoff contender, year over year over year, for the foreseeable future.

    That is the goal of the current general manger and that same general manager has a history of attaining that exact goal. His moves and non-moves over the last year show a clear path on that goal.

    The team has already started – the corner was clearly turned this season despite very little cap space in the off-season.

    Drai and McDavid do provide two high end cap hits but both of them are already performing value in excess of their cap hits, neither are even in their primes yet (maybe offensive primes but both have years to develop as overall players) and both are locked in for term at their solid to fantastic cap hits.

    Taking away the virus and short term economic impact, we don’t know what that is going to do to the league for the next year or two, those two contracts should become even more value year after year for their terms. Neither player will regress during the terms of those contracts – they are signed for their 20s.

    The core of the team is young (McDavid, Drai, Klefbom, Bear, Nurse – Nuge being the “old guy”) and there are key pieces that are starting to show themselves very young – Bear, Yamamoto, Jones – all 22 or younger. Guys like Kris Russell and Alex Chiasson will be replaced with the likes of Bouchard and Benson. There are various other d-men with real NHL potential and top 4-potential that will even allow a Nurse replacement, for example, in a year or two.

    If Edmonton is top-heavy in contracts, what will Vancouver be in a year when Pettersson and Hughes are on their second contracts?

  88. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: It’s true, I wish the Oilers 1st line had 2 guys who’ll be 35 and 32 when next season starts. And a 2C who’ll be 34. And whose top scoring D is a UFA, plus a 1st pair D who’s 43. Perennial favourite going forward for sure.

    And yet, the Bruins would crush the Oilers in a seven game series.

    You don’t seem to understand that the NHL is about to go through a massive upheaval and the process of wishing and hoping will no longer apply.

    Contract efficiency will become a guiding principal.

    Under those circumstances, despite what OP would like you to believe, balance will become hugely importance.

    His “fantastic cap hits” are about to become fantastic anchors.

  89. N64 says:

    [ ̄ ̄]ノ( º _ ºノ)

  90. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: And yet, the Bruins would crush the Oilers in a seven game series.

    They would. But we were talking about the decade…

  91. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: And yet, the Bruins would crush the Oilers in a seven game series.

    You don’t seem to understand that the NHL is about to go through a massive upheaval and the process of wishing and hoping will no longer apply.

    Contract efficiency will become a guiding principal.

    Under those circumstances, despite what OP would like you to believe, balance will become hugely importance.

    His “fantastic cap hits” are about to become fantastic anchors.

    Well, the edit expounded on things considerably.

    You seem awfully sure about the aftermath of the massive upheaval. Sounds like wishing and hoping may be all that’s left.

    If it all comes to that, maybe Holland will be lucky to have a compliance buyout to use on Connor.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai and McDavid’s contracts are about to become anchors.

    Drai, the 25 year old likely Hart Trophy winner, signed for the rest of his 20s for $8.5M – if that’s an anchor, what is Tyler Myers for his 30-35 years at $6M?

  93. jp says:

    Pescador: Dammit, why can’t I ever just have 1 thing to point my finger at and say:
    “That, fuck that shit right there!”
    Wet markets are a disgrace of humanity

    defmn: Because then you couldn’t go to a farmer’s market this weekend which is just the local name for a wet market. 😉

    I very much enjoyed both of these comments.

  94. Munny says:

    I did too.

    And I think I forgot to say thanks the other day for your work in researching the new percentages by draft round for 100 games-played etc. That was very welcome info.

  95. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: The Bruins are an excellent example of this.

    The Bruins are an excellent example of the calendar turning the page on another season… a season their elderly team did not have to waste. Their window is NOW, and for those teams with disappearing windows, this virus is tragic. They are a very poor example for the counterpoint you’re trying to make.

    Harpers Hair: And yet, the Bruins would crush the Oilers in a seven game series.

    The season series seems to say otherwise. And of course, that’s why we play the games… because of outlandish statement-makers.

    _________

    must’ve been some good whiskey in the bottle tonight, DSF.

  96. N64 says:

    dustrock: The only possible conclusion is that Bill Gates started the COVID-19 spread for mumbledy-mumble-reasons-which-shall-be-revealed and that NIT64 is actually Bill Gates.

    Pretty sure Steve Balmer started Covid19. It’s an elaborate program by his medical staff to load manage Kawhi.

  97. jp says:

    You’re welcome.

    Likewise, the continued covid-related information from you, N64 and others is much appreciated.

    I don’t want to talk about it ALL the time, but I also don’t want to pretend it’s not a thing.

  98. BONE207 says:

    After watching the replay tonight of game 6 of the 1989 Stanley Cup series, I will never again complain about the current refereeing. The amount of tripping, hooking, icing & other transgressions was beyond acceptable. Goalies being run & interference made on players make a season’s worth of CONNOR infractions seem negligible. Ok, maybe never complaining about the refs is going too far but the modern game is still superior. Now if only we could penalize this plague…😷

  99. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ~Precisely what I’d say myself, if I were in fact Bill Gates.~

  100. buck yoakam says:

    digger50,

    Good old klondike eric and the boys…I am sure those guys had a few nips every so often …that is a great story!

  101. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: It’s true, I wish the Oilers 1st line had 2 guys who’ll be 35 and 32 when next season starts. And a 2C who’ll be 34. And whose top scoring D is a UFA, plus a 1st pair D who’s 43. Perennial favourite going forward for sure.

    Their 33-year-old goalie should be good for another decade though, no?

  102. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Making the call on RFA and UFA players on the Oilers’ 50-man roster

    https://theathletic.com/1714285/2020/04/02/lowetide-making-the-call-on-rfa-and-ufa-players-on-the-oilers-50-man-roster/

  103. jp says:

    No doubt.

  104. Ribs says:

    Please upload and link. Wonderful.

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