This is my final list for the 2020 draft. It is 125 names deep and this has been a most unusual draft season. It’s my opinion this is an ideal draft for the Edmonton Oilers, owing to a plethora of forwards. Here we go.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett’s track record in developing young players
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We rallied and regrouped’: How the Oilers won the 1990 Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto represents ‘Money Puck’ value for NHL teams
- Lowetide: Exploring hidden-gem draft options for the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He set his place in history’: On Bill Ranford’s Conn Smythe run, 30 years later
- Jonathan Willis: Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards later in the draft
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. I punish poor foot speed liberally. My list list rewards offense heavily, and players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a minor-league future. That’s the biggest difference between my 2013 list and this one: Offense is king.
If you play significant minutes on the No. 3 line during your draft year, that’s a factor. The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Why? The checkers of tomorrow are hammering junior goalies into submission. Speed and skill, with astute decision making, is rewarded lavishly.
Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, success over more than one season has terrific value.
Corey Pronman has been an education for years now, his final list is here. Scott Wheeler is a unique voice, his final list is out today and here. His use of video and description of each player are welcome now and will be vital on draft day. We’ll talk to him on the Lowdown at 10:40 Edmonton time this morning.
Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions. I pay attention to Red Line Report. Steve Kournianos provides mountains of useful information. I value McKeens, Grant McCagg, Tom Hunter, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren, ISS. I miss Simon Boisvert but he does appear in McCagg’s Recrutes with a fantastic top 30.
I do have conversations with scouts in junior hockey and they are very helpful. This year’s list has less outside input, probably related to the vague timeline for the draft.
Hockey Prospect.com is a brilliant reference. Mark Edwards release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft. Highly recommended. If there’s one publication I would suggest purchasing, it would be Edwards.
I have been following the NHL draft since 1971, so can blame politics, Guy Lafleur, Marcel Dionne and Phil Russell for this obsession. Each year has a wrinkle, this year’s it’s an enormous crop of fascinating forwards. Very few burners, several miles of ridiculous offensive centers and wingers. Let’s go.
The 125 best players in the 2020 draft
- (1) L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL. NHL ready, fleet scorer who plays with an edge.
- (2) LC Quinton Byfield, OHL. August 2002, 6.04, 215. Big, powerful winger, excellent speed.
- (3) LC Tim Stutzle, DEL. Dynamic player, highlight reel offense. Tremendous skater.
- (4) LC Marco Rossi, OHL. Good speed, exciting, range of skills. Exceptional talent.
- (5) RHD Jamie Drysdale, OHL. Great speed, passing and instincts, instant offense from the blue.
- (6) LC Cole Perfetti, OHL. Outstanding talent, not as fast as top forwards, has tremendous skill.
- (7) RW Alexander Holtz, SHL. First-shot scorer with a range of skills, he’s an electric player.
- (8) LW Lucas Raymond, SHL. Smart player who has ridiculous skill. March 2002. Fine skater.
- (9) RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger was a late breaker. Pure goal scorer.
- (10) RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL. Impressive player who is both scorer and playmaker.
- (11) RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL. Creative center, great passer, great shot. Plays in tough areas.
- (12) LC Connor Zary, WHL. Quick, smart two-way center effective across 200 feet.
- (15) LD Jake Sanderson, USHL. Smart, fast two-way defenseman has complete skill set.
- (13) LC Anton Lundell, Liiga. Complete skill set, average speed but improving.
- (16) RC Seth Jarvis, WHL. Jarvis is a fantastic player, undersized and skilled. Big second half.
- (14) RW Noel Gunler, SHL. Has a great release and an impressive resume. Attractive option.
- (23) G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. He plays an unusual style. June 2002, has a .923 VHL save percentage.
- (18) RC Jacob Perreault, OHL. Skates well, great shot, great numbers, excellent passer.
- (20) LC Jan Mysak, OHL. Skilled and is effective in all areas. Major move in second half.
- (26) LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL. Big defenseman has good foot speed and full skill set.
- (17) LD Jérémie Poirier, QMJHL. Smart offensive defender, puck transporter.
- (19) RD Braden Schneider, WHL. Fine skater, physical, smart two-way defenseman.
- (22) LW Lukas Reichel, DEL. Mid-season riser. He has skill, speed and plays with abandon.
- (25) LW Rodion Amirov, KHL. Scouts love the tools. A fast train in a draft season with slow boats.
- (27) LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. Big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills.
- (29) LW Ridly Greig, WHL. Smart offensive winger with good instincts, August 2002. Not a burner.
- (24) RC Tyson Foerster, OHL. Great offensive weapon, quick release and accurate.
- (21) LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center projects as a playmaker. Injury a worry.
- (28) RHD Justin Barron, QMJHL. Mobile blue can defend. Lacks top-end offensive ability.
- (34) LW John-Jason Peterka, DEL. A speedy winger with skill, survived in a men’s league.
- (37) LW Martin Chromiak, OHL. One of the most skilled players in the draft.
- (44) LW Brendan Brisson, USHL. Undersized speedster spiked late. Big riser.
- (33) LD William Wallinder, Superelite. Big (6.04, 195) 2-way defenseman with good speed.
- (31) LW Jake Neighbours WHL He’s skilled, gritty and plays a strong two-way game.
- (42) RW Zion Nybeck, SuperElite. Undersized playmaker, great passer. Impressive speed.
- (30) RC Jean-Luc Foudy, OHL. Speedy center plus skill, mediocre season.
- (36) LD Emil Andrae, SuperElite. Fast defenseman with offensive potential. Plus passer.
- (38) LC Ty Smilanic, USHL. Lean center, plus skater and pure scorer. Had mono.
- (39) LC Vasili Ponomaryov, QMJHL. Great hands and good speed, he’s a little under the radar
- (35) RW Ozzy Wiesblatt, WHL. Undersized winger is aggressive, fast and skilled.
- (41) RW Sam Colangelo, USHL. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
- (32) RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
- (51) RD Helge Grans, SHL. Solid two-way defenseman with good size and speed.
- (45) RW Connor McClennon, WHL. Numbers are solid to excellent. Undersized, range of skills.
- (47) RC Jack Finley, WHL. An August 2002 and a big pivot, he plays a fairly complete game.
- (52) RW Kasper Simontaival, Liiga. Unusual skating style but he’s quick and has high-end skill.
- (49) RC Justin Sourdif, WHL. Two-way winger gained notice at the Hlinka, solid season.
- (56) LW Veeti Miettinen, Jr Liiga. Undersized winger, fills the net with pucks.
- (73) RW Pavel Novak, WHL. Speedster with skill, he’s a scorer.
- (48) LW Sean Farrell, USHL. A good skater with plus skills, spiked offensively.
- (55) LW Daniel Torgersson, SuperElite. He has size and good speed.
- (53) LC Thomas Bordeleau, USHL. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck.
- (84) RC Tyler Tullio, OHL. Small playmaking pivot. Good passer, great shot.
- (75) RW Ryan Francis, QMJHL. Playmaking winger who plays a smart game.
- (64) RC Theodor Niederbach, SuperElite. Skill center is a late breaker this draft.
- (63) LW Carter Savoie AJHL. Small, fleet skill winger delivered 99 points in 54 games.
- (40) LD Ryan O’Rourke, OHL. Good size (6.02, 181) projects as a top-four defenseman.
- (76) LW Brett Berard. Small skill winger with good hands.
- (46) RW Daniil Gushchin, USHL. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers.
- (74) LW Oskar Magnusson, SuperElite. Smaller winger good speed and two-way acumen.
- (50) RC Jaromir Pytlik, OHL. He’s a fine skater and has two-way skills.
- (62) RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way blue spiked offensively.
- (72) LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Pederson scored 28 goals in 61 games.
- (68) LC Marat Khusnutdinov, MHL. Small (5.09, 165) two-way center with great wheels.
- (54) LW Will Cuylle, OHL. Has a great shot, plus size and skill. Smart winger.
- (66) LD Lukas Cormier, QMJHL. Undersized skill defender with good speed and skill.
- (69) RD Michael Benning, AJHL. Impressive skills (fine skater, excellent passer).
- (79) RW Brandon Coe, OHL. Power forward scored 25 goals in the OHL this season.
- (55) LC Roni Hirvonen, Liiga. Undersized two-way playmaker can play center or wing.
- (57) LW Luke Tuch, USHL. Alex Tuch’s brother, he plays a similar style with less offense.
- (85) RC Tristan Robins, WHL. Impressive numbers, he is very skilled and doesn’t get much attention.
- (82) LD Yan Kuznetsov NCAA. He’s 6.03, 201, 18 and regarded as a solid defender.
- (60) LC Antonio Stranges, OHL Terrific speed and skill, disappointing season.
- (58) RW Alexander Pashin, MHL. Small winger with impressive skill can score and pass.
- (59) RW Dylan Peterson, USHL. Big winger with skill and speed, he was shy offensively this season.
- (61) RD Topi Niemela, Liiga. Niemela skates well, playing in Liiga. Some chaos.
- (71) LD Shakir Mukhamadullin, KHL. He’s 6.04, 178 and raw. Good speed, talent.
- (65) LW Roby Jarventie, Mestis. He’s an August 2002 and a nice size and speed combination.
- (70) LD Eemil Viro Sm-Liiga. Small, fast offensive defender, no dominant skill.
- (77) G Calle Clang, SHL. Good size, a .913 SP and stellar work at the Hlinka.
- (87) LW Kyle Crnkovic, WHL. Small (5.07) doubled his point total season over season.
- (78) LC Elliot Ekmark, SuperElite. High skill, elusive, great speed, undersized.
- (89) RW Wiljami Myllylä, Jr Sm-Liiga. Speed demon, gaudy scoring numbers for days.
- (88) LC Theo Rochette, QMJHL. Undersized two-way center, intriguing offense.
- (80) RD Luke Prokop, WHL. A giant (6.04, 218) able to close gaps and suppress offense.
- (81) LD Tyler Kleven, USHL. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed.
- (83) G Sam Hlavaj, QMJHL. Boasts a .915 save percentage and stands 6.04, 218.
- (67) G Nico Daws, OHL. .924 save percentage represents a big performance spike.
- (87) LC Daniel Ljungman, SuperElite. Emerged from nowhere at the Hlinka Gretzky. Great release.
- (83) G Joel Blomquist, Jr Liiga. Strong numbers (.929), good glove.
- (91) LC Cameron Berg, USHL. Good speed and skill.
- (92) G Dylan Garand, WHL. Eye popping SP (.921) for June 2002, but he’s only 6.0.
- (93) RC Zayde Wisdom, OHL. Pure scorer, strong season, wheels are the concern.
- (NR) LW Emil Heineman, SHL. Older prospect, good size and speed.
- (94) LD Daemon Hunt, WHL. Will earn his money as a shutdown defenseman.
- (95) LW Pavel Gogolev, OHL. Now 20, he is fast and has a great shot.
- (96) LC Juuso Mäenpää, Jr Liiga. Very small but highly skilled playmaker.
- (97) LW Maxim Groshev, KHL. Skilled and determined with the puck on his stick.
- (98) RD Kasper Puutio, WHL. Good Hlinka and then a strong late push after being dealt.
- (99) LW Cross Hanas, WHL. Speedy winger scored 22 goals in Portland.
- (100) LC Evan Vierling OHL. Playmaking center spiked late. Excellent passer.
- LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, OHL. Impressive season for Feb. 2001, under the radar skill W.
- RD Alex Cotton, WHL. Big defenseman with a great shot, overager.
- LD Anton Johannesson, SuperElite. Small puck mover is a wizard, could be a steal.
- RD Billy Constantinou, OHL. Chaos blue made my list last year, worth a late flier.
- G Brett Brochu, OHL. Under the radar goalie who delivered a .919 SP as a rookie.
- RC Josh Pillar, WHL. Fast player, spiked offensively, could be underrated here.
- LW Blake Biondi, USHS. High skill, great speed.
- RC Colby Ambrosio, USHL. Speedster, very skilled, I love his resume. Just 5.08, he’s a bullet.
- LW James Hardie, OHL. Volume shooter, 34 goals, one dimensional.
- RD Thimo Nickl, QMJHL. Strong skater, two-way blue, December 2001.
- RD Eamon Powell, USHL. Impressive skater can move the puck effectively
- LD Donovan Sebrango, OHL. Two-way defender, excellent skater.
- LD Dave Ma, USHL. Tremendous skater and very creative.
- LW Rory Kerins, OHL. 30 goals for an April 2002 is worth drafting.
- LD Mitch Miller, USHL. Fine skater, has two-way skills.
- RW Oliver Suni, OHL. Strong winger with range of skills.
- G Devon Levi, CCHL. Impressive .941 SP.
- LC Michal Gut, WHL. Skill center, average speed, August 2002.
- LW Eric Juhlin, SuperElite. Good shot, solid performance (13 goals in 36 games) at even strength.
- RD Ian Moore, USHS. Massachusetts offensive defenseman.
- LW Maxim Beryozkin, MHL. Size, speed, skill, shot. Average speed is the worry.
- LHD Alexander Nikishin, KHL. Good skater, plus shot, he’s a throwback who hits to hurt.
- G Drew Commesso, USHL. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20. Big step forward.
- RD Ethan Edwards, Spruce Grove, AJHL. Impressive speed and skill puck mover.
OILERS MOCK DRAFT!
I added a second round pick via Ottawa, let’s say it’s a deal that involves Jesse Puljuarvi.
No. 20 overall. LC Connor Zary, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). He’s a center, six foot 180, September 2001. Makes smart plays, great passer, offensive spike this season far more than expected. Not fancy, lets the puck do the work with deft passing. Red Line likes his skating, Pronman says he’ll be pro average. That’s good enough for me. I would prefer either Mercer or Bourque but they’ll be gone at 20.
No. 50 overall (assumed acquisition). LD William Wallinder, Modo (SuperElite). Big Swedish defenseman with great wheels, my guess is Edmonton has him high on their list. Offensive potential but I’d phrase him as a two-way type. I’ll bet Wallinder goes 22-40 overall but he could fall if things break right.
No. 82 overall. RC Jack Finley, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). He’s a big center with skill and a good skater, too. Some question about what position he’ll play at the pro level and it’s a bit of a boom or bust but the payoff on the bet is huge.
No. 144 overall. LW Veeti Miettinen, Espoo (Jr Liiga). Undersized scorer with a great shot. Again, fabulous value at this spot.
No. 175 overall. LW Oskar Magnusson, Malmo (SuperElite). Fine prospect brings speed and a great shot. Undersized, always a theme of my mock drafts.
No. 206 overall. LW Kyle Crnkovic, Saskatoon (WHL). The parade of small forwards with skill continues to the bitter end.
PROJECTED PROSPECT DEPTH CHART AND NHLE
Oilers have themselves at a point where drafting best player available has to be abandoned. This draft needs to deliver quality forwards. Fortunately, I see this draft as top heavy in forwards.
The numbers suggest there isn’t much difference year over year: My first round this summer has one goalie, six defensemen and 24 forwards. A year ago it was no goalies, nine defenseman and 22 forwards.
My entire 125 list contains 9 goalies, 32 defensemen and 84 forwards. My list last year contained 6 goalies, 39 defensemen and 80 forwards.
I see my mock as something close to ideal. Two centers, three wingers and a blue. I don’t see this as a fabulous crop for goalies although the kid from the OHL is intriguing.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on another week of fun sports chat on TSN1260. Hernan Salas from TSN1260 will join us to talk about another outstanding goal by Alphonso Davies this weekend, plus the return of the EPL in the middle of this month. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will discuss his final top 100 for the 2020 draft just out today. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 pops in at 11 to chat NHL news, MLB’s sputtering carcass and whatever breaks between now and then.
That’s fair. I still don’t think anyone will be “forced” to return to play if they don’t want to (whatever their reason) but sure, there could be some form of distinction.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
I fully agree there’s likely to be some sort of informal peer pressure or issues otherwise for players who decide not to play without clear health/family related reasons. There may even be team sanctioned penalties by some owners/managers. I just don’t think the league will mandate that sort of thing or officially endorse it.
jp,
I definitely don’t disagree with your points (especially regarding optics) but mostly in theory.
In theory hockey is for everyone. Unless the coach doesn’t like you then it’s open season to denigrate you in front of your teammates and limit your opportunity for ice time… Akim Ailu says hello and I’m sure there have been countless others. The only reason Peters was sacked was because of the optics. Not because of platitudes and promises or union representation. It was a bad look for the league and would have a direct impact on revenue.
I don’t see the Wild or NHL taking putative action against Dubnyk if he doesn’t play, but what a pickle that would be for the team. I can envision mixed reactions within the locker room and organization which would lead to an awkward work environment at the very least. Again, just in theory. Not in the room so it’s tough to speculate.
Thanks for sharing your blog post Sheps. Like how you zoomed out to map the bigger system which guides our reality tunnels. Should the system also be on trial?
OriginalPouzar,
No doubt!
The entire NHLPA will return on the actual return to play plan that is negotiated by their representatives.
I anticipate that it will pass and the vast majority of players on the 24 teams will return.
As I as posted, I anticipate there will be at least a handful of players that refuse to return – some may have direct health issues. Some may have family health issues. Some may have other family reasons. Some may have other reasons.
I don’t know what the NHL and the teams may do but I think there could be a differentiation between the four categories I listed (and sub-categories within).
To all who read, commented and emailed me yesterday about that thing I wrote, thanks for taking the time to read it and think about some of the ideas.
It’s not much, but all of us can help in our own ways.
Thanks again
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
Thanks for the perspective.
My opinion on this is mostly based on the NHLs words so far (which as OP pointed out don’t technically cover later phases), the reaction of other leagues (the NBA I think said something similar about not forcing players to return, though I could be mistaken) and the climate around returning to work at my own workplace (in the US) which has stressed that people will not be forced to return if they don’t feel comfortable.
I fully agree that these things, and the presence of unions, are not guaranteeing anyone legal protection from punitive measures if they refuse to return to work.
I would just be extremely surprised if the NHL officially did such at this point considering the optics public nature of doing it during a pandemic. And beyond that, they don’t currently force players to play or honor their contracts currently if they don’t want to. Now seems like about the worst time to start.
Maybe I’m off base. But I just don’t see it happening.
Not a word out of place in this post. My thoughts exactly.
jp,
Not sure if you work for a union or not, but I work for one of the largest ones in Alberta industrial construction/maintenance, which is federalized with one of the largest throughout North America.
Individual members are absolutely penalized for rocking the boat, especially those whom have low social/professional standing or personal clout.
If you, say, speak out about safety violations or (gasp) hypocrisy withing the rules or application thereof (related to safety, camp conditions, labour code or union rule violations, or otherwise), you are very likely vilified and subsequently laid-off at first opportunity… only to go back to the dispatch board to try again. If/when there’s work available.
Referees/Job Stewards are not typically ensconced based on competence or character, but on inside knowledge of being reliable/sympathetic to a core set of values not intrinsic or shared with the bulwark of the membership — and rather most typically favourable to the leadership classes of both the client and union.
All one really learns over time is that if you want to have a career, you need to mind your own business, consistently produce quality work, and network with your own kind. Leave the thinking to the big fish.
I’m not so sure it’s any different when the salary figures are seven-plus compared to five or six. In fact, it may be worse; especially so when the stakes are public.
In short, if you think that players are shielded by the NHLPA to any kind of backlash or repercussions for not reporting to play due to Covid-related fears by way of having a union, I think you’re bound to be disappointed.
That’s the problem. No team places the same value on JP as the Oilers. If they are only willing to give up a second round pick this year, that value will diminish even more next year. If a second rounder is the maximum return this year, it will be third rounder next year. Holland is better off taking the second round pick. The best solution for the Oilers is JP returning, but that is out of the team’s hands. The next best solution is trading for another former highly touted prospect who has diminished value to his team. IMO the least desirable option is JP spending another year in Europe. I’d rather have the second round pick. Although I agree with your evaluation of second round picks, it really doesn’t matter. It’s still better than a third round pick.
Georges,
VOR advocated for a JP for Strome trade early.
It would appear he was right.
Georges,
Bravo.
Georges,
Without actually crunching the numbers I *think* only 5 of the 25 forwards listed above scored 0.4+ PPG for the rest of their careers (excluding Burns who didn’t remain a forward).
A few of them are young and might still get there but the odds for Puljujarvi scoring at even 0.4 PPG going forward don’t look overly strong.
Georges,
I can’t answer my own question fully, but I did go to HockeyReference and look for NHL players who fit the following criteria:
Forwards, from the modern era (post 1967 expansion)
Age 20 or younger
100+ NHL games
Up to first 3 seasons
Sorting for Pts/Game puts Puljujarvi near the bottom of the list of 190 players. All the players within +/- 0.10 PPG of Puljujarvi’s 0.27 career PPG are:
Stanislav Chistov 0.36
Pavel Zacha 0.36
Tyson Jost 0.35
Magnus Paajarvi 0.35
Filip Chytil 0.34
Sean Couturier 0.34
Troy Mallette 0.34
Andrew McBain 0.34
Everett Sanipass 0.34
Alexander Burmistrov 0.32
Rob Niedermayer 0.32
Dainius Zubrus 0.32
Luc Dufour 0.31
Ryan Johansen 0.31
Taylor Pyatt 0.30
Dave Chyzowski 0.29
Mike Marson 0.29
Grant Mulvey 0.29
Herb Raglan 0.29
Jesse Puljujarvi 0.27
James Sheppard 0.27
Curtis Lazar 0.24
Jason Wiemer 0.22
Shane Doan 0.21
Brent Burns 0.20 (not sure he played F for all this time)
Manny Malhotra 0.19
Tom Wilson 0.18 (this is actually the last name/lowest total on the list)
There’s lots of useful, and a few exceptional, players on this list. But I’m not sure it’s a list that would prompt me to pay a 1st rounder for Puljujarvi (though I may also be over-valuing a pick in the 20s, as it seems we’ve likely doing for 2nd round picks).
I agree with your conclusion here, that Puljujarvi returning to the Oilers is likely the best outcome. And in general I’ve been (I think) among the more optimistic supporters regarding Puljujarvi’s future.
A 0.4 PPG floor seems rather aggressive though. And having nothing to back it up seems a little unusual for you.
So, the player scored 0.19 PPG in his last stint in the NHL. 0.27 for his NHL career.
This season in Finland produced an NHLE of 35 points, which would be 0.43 PPG. (I don’t deny 0.4 is possible, maybe even likely btw).
His AHL career sits at 0.7 PPG with I believe works out to just south of 0.35 PPG NHLE.
His BEST NHL season to date produced 0.31 PPG.
I have zero doubt he might score 0.4 or 0.5 or even 0.6 PPG in a return. I just have a hard time agreeing that’s the floor. There’s risk involved with Puljujarvi, just as there’s very significant upside.
I guess a question for you (I didn’t start out thinking to ask…) is what have players who’ve score 0.27 PPG in the NHL before turning 21 done at the NHL level going forward?
Do you really think the league might force the players to return? Or in any way officially penalize them for not returning (beyond loss of whatever compensation is decided on)? I just don’t see it happening…
Alright, that’s far more fair.
I think Lowry is a better skater, and more of a crash and banger, more in a Kassian mould (without the crazy), whereas Finley is better positionally, thinks the games very well and has better offensive instincts.
Finley is also better defensively.
So Lowry is a clear bottom 6, where Finley could very well be a 2nd line C. Couturier-lite, if you will.
Finley has normally been placed in a 2-way role and throughout his minor league career often took on the opponent’s best players.
I have no doubt that he will be an NHL Centre.
Thanks for sharing!
As a very shy person I was never good at speaking up for myself, but whenever I witnessed injustice as a child I would spring into action. That never went away.
I have been extremely privileged in my life and it would be better for our society if people spoke up every single time. We are making progress as a society in breaking down the barriers with the “Me Too” movement, for mental health stigmas and gender/sexuality type issues, but this racial inequity/injustice has been devoid of effort by the leadership in society at every level forever….
Change can’t happen in a vacuum, otherwise it will be short-lived or isolated, which has happened all over, I am sure. But the leaders at the top need to link with lower level leadership to present a united front. Hopefully we see that happen in our lifetime.
stephen sheps,
Thanks for taking the time to write this.
Keep up the good work!
If JP refuses to play for the Oilers, the GM’s hands are tied. He will have to basically accept the best offer. If JP spends another year in Finland, his value will be sewered IMO, even if he has another good year.
Of course if he was an Oiler, Panarin would be automatically disqualified because they weren’t a playoff team. Being Russian probably seals his fate though. Like I said a week ago, Drai deserves it. McKinnon wins it.
PS. I have no idea who you would vote for. Sadly, I know who you wouldn’t vote for.
True
It was my way of saying it is a bad idea to draft a goaltender until late in the 2nd round at the earliest, because almost all 18-year old goaltenders are suspects.
If a goaltender isn’t a suspect, then he must be a sure thing and amongst the very top in his draft class. Since 99.9% of 18-year old goaltenders are suspects of varying degrees, one really shouldn’t be drafting them till the 3rd round.
I would agree that, overall, Broberg is a higher rated prospect than Sammy but I thought your list was for next season and Broberg will be playing over in Sweden next season (unless something changes).
For sure Sammy struggled early as a rookie pro, which was expected, but he also showed some fine development and was really starting to find his game with his face injury occurred – when he returned, the team was gutted and dumpster fire. First year pro d-men from the CHL typically struggle in their first year pro – I anticipate we are going to see a monster spike in Sammy’s development in year 2.
I agree with your assessment of Berglund, Kemp and Kesserling but, at the same time, there is no guarantee that any of them will be NHL players.
From what I’ve read (and a bit of what I’ve seen), yes, Berglund could very well be an NHL d-man right now but we don’t know that to actually be the case and we won’t for another full year.
I think Kemp is earning himself a pro contract but he’s far from a sure-NHLer and Kesserling is years away.
Adding some more talent to the RD pipeline would be great
Other than JP’s perception/attitude and his Agent, the environment is ripe for JP to have NHL success next season. I hope he receives and heeds level-headed advice, I really want to see how he responds to Tippett.
My viewpoint is they already have pro seasons under their belts, and Samorukov struggled a bit as a rookie pro and lost time to injury, while Broberg is a higher pick and will likely get preferential opportunity ahead of Samo.
Broberg is a Holland pick so this may play a part as well.
Well there is Bouchard, right?
Berglund could be a better than 3rd pair Dman right now.
Kemp will be a good 3rd pair D, I expect a similiar style to Lagesson, but a better skater when he arrives
Kesselring is still very raw, but already he is better than Desharnais and should improve a lot over the next 3 yrs. He finished the season much improved from the beginning of the NCAA season.
I agree with your ranking for next season except Samorukov is definitely ahead of Broberg for next year (in my opinion) and potentially ahead of Niemalainen.
Phase 2 is completely voluntary.
Parameters around phase 3 (training camps) and phase 4 (travel to hugs, 2 exhibition games, real games) havt not.
Gelsenkirchen Frozen Yellow Strudel?
The Leprechaun comment suggested otherwise to me, but cool, agreed.
Hi OP, My apologies for my lack of clarity, I see the leftorium ranked like this for NEXT season:
Klef
Nurse
Jones
(Russell) – Traded
Lagesson
Lennstrom
Niemelainen
Broberg
Samorukov
Have they not said very clearly already it’s up to the player? No one will be forced?
It’s absolutely possible teammates, coaches, GMs will take offence. This could be an issue for fringe players in particular, getting another deal and that sort of thing. Pretty sure the NHL will NOT sanction any punitive action for an individual making a personal decision to stay home though.
Yeah with that much talent down low the Oilers should be focusing on bombs from the point.
Get outta here.
The reason the Oilers pp is so good is because Klefbom knows not to waste the puck with point shots when he’s got the two best players in the game down low
Here’s the interesting thing about Klefbom
He took 159 shots on goal during the season which is good for 19th in the league
But when you take a look at defensemen that played 100 minimum power play Klefbom drops to 8.8 shots per 60 min which is 43rd in the league
So he is intentionally not shooting the puck as much on the pp as he does normally
Guess who takes the most shots
Burns 18.9/60
Doughty 18.4/60
Josi 18.3/60
And where are their powerplays ranked you may ask?
Sharks 23rd
Preds 25th
Kings 26th
So we can live without a bomb from the point
Because Weber’s bomb from point only gets the Canadians a 22nd ranked pp
Don’t draft Askarov. I have no issue with that POV.
Draft top 5 or not until late 2nd. Huh.
The complete list of goalies drafted in the top 5 in the past 30 years:
2005 5th Price
2003 1st Fleury
2002 2nd Lehtonen
2000 1st DiPietro
DiPietro was a bust. And was Lehtonen worth the #2 pick? Drafting a goalie top 5 is far from fool proof.
Then you’ve got:
2006 6th Montoya
1999 6th Finley
1994 7th Storr
But drafting a goalie 6 or 7 is fundamentally different from drafting #5…
Then there are 50 slots where it’s a bad idea to draft a G. Then it’s OK…
Honestly this is a weird one Godot.
My main three ingredients for a prospect are skating, hockey IQ and passion for the game.
I think he will win the Hart so, no, I don’t think I’ll take that bet.
Yeah, plus minus is a respected stat. GFYS
I know who votes on the award, thank you very much. That’s great for Kurz – of course, there are other members who have mentioned that Drai is their run away #1 you.
Its so odd that you contribute all of the Oilers success to the PP and then use Drai’s PP points, the primary reason for that PP and the team’s success as a way to say he isn’t as valuable to his team. Its almost as if you are making the point of how valuable to the team he was.
Yes, his plus/minus will be an issue for those voting members that don’t actually watch the Oilers play as its clearly not representative of his play as his team’s best faceoff guy, a top PK guy, etc.
I know where your vote is going – oh, wait, it matters as much as mine.
Name a Nucks player in the running…..
F u
Every once in a while I wander over to the sports channels and see what’s on. Just catching game 5 of the 1984 Stanley cup final (which I’ve never seen before). Fun game.
Thanks for this contribution Stephen and to LT for the space to post it. I have read your piece and want to thank you for several things. For the skills and dedication work and patience to research and write and to teach, to engage. For the clear and compelling analysis you put forth in this article. For the invitation it poses to me, and more significantly, to leaders of groups of influential athletes. The names on this blog that LT is proposing to take the next steps. And the names on the jerseys of the team we cheer for.
You definitely don’t draft a goalie top 5.
There’s just too many things that can go wrong and most teams would not draft a goalie until mid to late 1st round.
Wait for 3rd round?? There’s no way he’s going to be around anywhere close to that?
So you would pass on drafting Hart, Samsonov hoping on a 3rd round Flyer.
And Askarov is supposed to be the best G prospect in years
You wouldn’t vote for Joe Colborne?
Shocking!!
I seem to remember that your not a gambling man but I am if you would like to go $100 to Lowetide or a charity it’ll make it more interesting. I’ll take Leon wins MVP and he does it pretty easily if you don’t want to wager no problem. If you do wager and when you lose unlike HH when he lost the Mcdavid, Mackinnon scoring race I know you’ll honour our bet.
I doubt anybody here would disagree with that.
I would far sooner see a smaller player with skill over a bigger player with questionable skating and hands of stone any time!