Free Bird

by Lowetide

There are pockets of procurement that provide opportunities for NHL teams. It should probably be titled ‘this is probably nothing’ or ‘you might also enjoy’ because most times nothing comes of it. However, when everything breaks right, things can get good in a hurry.

An example came in 2002, when Jarret Stoll refused to sign with the Calgary Flames, re-entered the draft and was chosen by Edmonton in the second round. The Oilers were on the other end of the deal in 2013, when Tobias Rieder made it clear he wouldn’t sign with the team. Is there a Jarret Stoll among the players who didn’t sign this year?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

EXPIRED SIGNING RIGHTS

LD Xavier Bernard. Big defenseman with good speed blossomed after a mid-season trade to Sherbrooke in his final junior year. 

RD Xavier Bouchard. Big defender with good speed took a big step forward (46 points in 60 games) in 2018-19. He did not repeat the performance this past season

LW Cole Fonstad. I had him No. 46 on my 2018 list, he’s skilled but didn’t progress as an offensive player.

LC Luke Henman. Spiked in his final junior season, increasing point total (in 63 games both times) from 46 to 74. Good skater, smart player, I’m a little surprised he didn’t get signed.

LC Allan McShane. I had him No. 31 on my final list, excellent passer and a nice range of skills. NHLE in his final OHL season (28.6) was shy.

RC Greg Meireles. Smaller forward, speedy, responsible. Florida didn’t offer him a contract. He’s 21, might be a European contract in his future.

LC Riley Stotts. I had him No. 107 overall, he improved slightly during his junior career but didn’t spike. Final junior NHLE (26.3) doesn’t stand out in the crowd.

If they gave me a vote, I’d select Henman as the player to pursue. He can skate and delivered strong offense. He might be worth a draft pick.

August 15

The next deadline is the college deadline, the one that freed Matt Benning to sign with the Oilers a few years ago. Graham McPhee, who we discussed the other day, is the lone Oilers prospect whose rights are set to be lost. Here are some other attractive possible free agents.

L Karch Bachman, drafted in 2015 by the Florida Panthers out of Culver Academy (USHS). Speedy skill winger, explosive. 31 points in 34 games as a senior with Miami of Ohio. NHLE: 32.8 and he is 23.

RD Ben Finkelstein, drafted in 2016 by the Florida Panthers out of Kimball Union (USHS). Played top pair with Boston College this season, a capable two-way college defenseman. NHLE 19.9

LW Matt Filipe drafted in 2016 by the Carolina Hurricanes out of Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL). Big power forward who will take some time to develop. Might get an AHL deal.

RD Luke Martin, drafted in 2017 by the Carolina Hurricanes out of Michigan (NCAA). Big, mobile defender plays intelligent game. Handedness a big advantage.

RW Carson Meyer, drafted in 2017 by the Columbus Blue Jackets out of Miami of Ohio (NCAA). Undersized offensive winger, good passer. NHLE: 24.2

LW Cameron Morrison, drafted in 2016 by the Colorado Avalanche out of Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Power forward could get a lot of attention should he reach free agency. NHLE 19.9

LC Nikita Pavlychev, drafted in 2015 by the Pittsburgh Penguins out of Des Moines (USHL). Towering two-way center had a mammoth junior season but fell to earth (and it’s a long way, he’s 6.07). NHLE 14.2

LC Lukas Sedlak, drafted in 2011 by the Columbus Blue Jackets out of Ceske Budejovice Jrs (Czech Jr). Two-way center who is tough to move (6.0, 205) and has 162 games. I’m not saying he is Jaroslav Pouzar but he’s tough to play against.

LD Ryan Shea, drafted in 2015 by the Chicago Blackhawks out of Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Excellent passer, he can defend and his senior campaign was his best season. Might have the most potential in this group. NHLE 29.4

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s a fun show today as we change up guests and subjects this week. At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we’ll discuss the NHL’s return plus the Oilers-Hawks with Tom Gazzolla from Locked on Oilers podcast. We’ll also chat mlb with Simon Sharkey-Gotlieb from The Score, as baseball prepares for a 50-game “season” and very little pay. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

69 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
69 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
OriginalPouzar

Will be interesting to see when the “new July 1” will be – when will contracts eventually expire, free agency start, etc.

I understand the premise of having a “hand-shake deal” with Nuge for him to officially sign after the Seattle expansion draft – that would be the ultimate scenario but, at the same time, if he’s willing to sign a reasonable extension this off-season, 6 years X $7-7.5M, I think you gotta get his name in ink.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know any of these unsigned drafted players or potential college free agents but adding to the depth and skill on the Condors is never a bad thing (well, Nolan Vesey and Colin Larkin type deals aside).

JJS

How many contract spots do we have available?

That is really the only risk with signing kids from this bucket.

Elgin R

Given the barren RHD and LW on the Condors it is worth making a play for one of each. The younger the better as the player still has time to mature physically and their game to grow at the minor pro level. Both players listed below are 20 years old.

In the case of Henman (LC), he was well over a point per game and listed at 164 lbs / 6′ (man is that skinny). Do the Carolina scouts think he is too slight for the rigours of the NHL? Elias Pettersson is listed at 176 lbs / 6′-2″ and he seems to able to play in the NHL.

Bouchard (RD) would be a good player to add to the Condors. 2018 scouting reports had him as a big stay-at-home defenceman with decent wheels (sounds like Adam Larsson). Cap Friendly lists Vegas having 5 of 8 being RHD so maybe that is why they did not sign him – but still worrying. It would also be fun to hear the call of a shift change with Bouchard off to Bouchard on.

The Oilers have room in the 50-man roster so taking a flyer is worth the gamble. Maybe they will sign 1-year AHL only show-me contracts just to play somewhere.

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar:
Will be interesting to see when the “new July 1” will be – when will contracts eventually expire, free agency start, etc.

I understand the premise of having a “hand-shake deal” with Nuge for him to officially sign after the Seattle expansion draft – that would be the ultimate scenario but, at the same time, if he’s willing to sign a reasonable extension this off-season, 6 years X $7-7.5M, I think you gotta get his name in ink.

If that number is doable, sign him today. Nuge is invaluable to this team.

Darth Tu

Elgin R:
Given the barren RHD and LW on the Condors it is worth making a play for one of each.The younger the better as the player still has time to mature physically and their game to grow at the minor pro level.Both players listed below are 20 years old.

In the case of Henman (LC), he was well over a point per game and listed at 164 lbs / 6′ (man is that skinny).Do the Carolina scouts think he is too slight for the rigours of the NHL?Elias Pettersson is listed at 176 lbs / 6′-2″ and he seems to able to play in the NHL.

Bouchard (RD) would be a good player to add to the Condors.2018 scouting reports had him as a big stay-at-home defenceman with decent wheels (sounds like Adam Larsson).Cap Friendly lists Vegas having 5 of 8 being RHD so maybe that is why they did not sign him– but still worrying.It would also be fun to hear the call of a shift change with Bouchard off to Bouchard on.

The Oilers have room in the 50-man roster so taking a flyer is worth the gamble.Maybe they will sign 1-year AHL only show-me contracts just to play somewhere.

I laughed out loud at the Bouchard/Bouchard shift change. Shame he’s not a LHD so they could play together.

I agree though, a play for at least two of the college pool is advisable. Let’s restock Bakersfield and possibly steal a prospect. Who knows, maybe X-Bouchard will be the new Broheim Raffleticket.

Jordan

I haven’t been on much recently, as there are other priorities in my life now, but I do want to express my gratitude for everyone on here and their thoughts, opinions and takes on all the hockey and non-hockey events occurring. The community here is one of the healthiest I am aware of on the interwebs, and I greatly appreciate everyone’s efforts to:
– foster rational discussion and debate,
– thoughtful questioning of motives, bias and facts
– exploring new ways to review and analyze data, and
– trying to do all of this in as respectful a way as possible.

Especially you Lowetide. Thank you.

———————————————————————————————————

Based on player production, positions of need, and qualities necessary for a jump to the NHL, L Karch Bachman and LD Ryan Shea look like the best options for the Oilers from this group.

I wouldn’t be opposed to someone like LC Nikita Pavlychev to help fill out our centre depth at the AHL level too – he might be able to push someone like McLeod. Competition by people at approximately the same is one of the best motivators for individual development, IMO.

WRT draft priorities…

I acknowledge the roster has specific needs, and the pipeline has specific needs.

But we’ve been through this before. Countless times. Drafting for needs now leads to heartache later.

Best Player Available.

Say it with me now – Best Player Available.

There is only one rule for drafting. It’s been the same rule since before Montreal was schooling the rest of the league 50 years ago.

Draft the Best Player Available. That’s how teams get deeper, that’s how dynasties are built, and that’s how teams avoid decades of darkness.

Make your picks. Make them good. Keep the good/great ones. Trade pieces that don’t fit to other organizations that need them for more draft picks. Keep stocking the cupboard.

Best Player Available.

Hitman77

With Nurse due for a long term contract after his current deal and Bear down the road, I wonder if there’s enough left under the cap to accommodate a Nuge extension.

defmn

Hitman77:
With Nurse due for a long term contract after his current deal and Bear down the road, I wonder if there’s enough left under the cap to accommodate a Nuge extension.

We are going to see how the flattened cap affects salaries starting after this season is over. I don’t think anybody knows for certain but I have a suspicion that ELC contracts to RFA contractswill see raises but UFA contracts to UFA contract will be closer to flat than we have seen in the past.

There just isn’t that much more room to squeeze the bottom six, bottom pair, and backup goalie contracts anymore.

OriginalPouzar

JJS:
How many contract spots do we have available?

That is really the only risk with signing kids from this bucket.

Tons of spots available right now – I think we probably have like 30 NHL contracts for next year – of course, some will get used on the likes of AA, Bear, Benning, back-up goalie, etc. but there is lots of room. Re-signing guys like Malone to AHL deals (and the recent free agent signings were also AHL deals) really helps in that regard.

OriginalPouzar

Darth Tu: If that number is doable, sign him today. Nuge is invaluable to this team.

Well, we can’t re-sign him “today” – not until July 1 (and that date will be extended until the end of the re-started playoffs I’m sure).

Jaxon

What happened to Cam Morrison. His numbers in his draft year were elite.

This is how he stacked up over 15 years of North American prospects Age & Era Adjusted 5v5 Projected Primary Points:

YEAR – Name – “AGE & ERA ADJ
NHLE 5-on-5 P1
@TOP6TOI” – eTOI/GP
1 2005 – Sidney Crosby – 48.18 – 15.28
2 2015 – Connor McDavid – 44.02 – 16.89
3 2018 – Andrei Svechnikov – 38.80 – 15.07
4 2015 – Mitchell Marner – 37.49 – 13.79
5 2015 – Dylan Strome – 36.80 – 15.49
6 2014 – Robby Fabbri – 33.93 – 14.99
7 2007 – Patrick Kane – 32.41 – 14.22
8 2013 – Nathan MacKinnon – 30.49 – 15.9
9 2014 – Sam Bennett – 30.15 – 15.87
10 2014 – Spencer Watson – 30.10 – 14.21
11 2010 – Taylor Hall – 29.83 – 13.88
12 2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48 – 17.21
13 2016 – Pierre-Luc Dubois – 29.43 – 15.4
14 2016 – Alex DeBrincat – 29.20 – 17.03
15 2016 – Cameron Morrison – 29.13 – 15.25
16 2016 – Adam Mascherin – 29.04 – 16.06
17 2008 – Steven Stamkos – 28.87 – 13.74
18 2009 – Scott Glennie – 28.83 – 14.12
19 2018 – Oliver Wahlstrom – 28.79 – 16.26
20 2013 – Jonathan Drouin – 28.62 – 15.98
21 2010 – Tyler Seguin – 28.53 – 17.52
22 2019 – Philip Tomasino – 28.348 – 13.93
23 2011 – Ryan Strome – 28.11 – 15.79
24 2006 – Chris Stewart – 28.11 – 13.9
25 2009 – Evander Kane – 28.10 – 15.13

Good size and good skating. Decent scouting report:

“A big, strong all-around player who thinks the game at a high level and executes plays with purpose and drive. Accelerates well and has no issues getting around the ice with haste; transition game will need some tweaks. Very good vision and puck skills, and has the size to make a difference driving to the net and causing havoc for the opposition’s defence. Defensively sound, using his size to his advantage along the boards and getting his stick in place to deflect passes out of harm’s way. Moving forward, Morrison will have every opportunity to develop into a smart power forward who can play in all situations and make it difficult on the opposition. ”

I’d take a flyer on him.

jp

LT: “An example came in 2002, when Jarret Stoll refused to sign with the Calgary Flames, re-entered the draft and was chosen by Edmonton in the second round. The Oilers were on the other end of the deal in 2013, when Tobias Rieder made it clear he wouldn’t sign with the team.”

It also happened to the Oilers in 2002! With Oilers pick Matthew Lombardi getting drafted by the Flames the same year as Stoll went from the Flames to Oilers.

Not quite the same career as Stoll but a pretty useful player in his own right.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=43804

Jaxon

For expansion reasons I’d like them to explore waiting to sign Nuge and Larsson until after the expansion draft, which would allow them to protect more players. As long as they’re confident they would re-sign with Edmonton and they have a verbal from them of their intentions.

jp

Elgin R: Given the barren RHD and LW on the Condors

Not suggesting the Oilers shouldn’t sign some of these player but the Condors aren’t that barren. There’s no question they could use a top 4 RD but they have lots of AHL contracts on top of what LTs NHL depth chart lists above.

Brackets for players who have real shots of being Oilers next season:
(Benson)-Marody-Lavoie
Gambardella-Malone-Esposito
Kuffner-McLeod-Maksimov
Hamblin-Stukel-Safin
Christiensen-Brosseau-Folkes

(Lagesson)-(Bouchard)
Lennstrom-Samorukov (LD)
Niemelainen-Desharnais
Kulevich-Jaks
Kaldis

Skinner-Wells-Rodrigue

There’s a lot of bodies. And most of the new guys on AHL deals have pretty strong resumes. Some of them should be real contributors. Most of them are listed here.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/724/bakersfield-condors/2020-2021

Spartacus

RD Ben Finkelstein, drafted in 2016 by the Florida Panthers out of Kimball Union (USHS). Played top pair with Boston College this season, a capable two-way college defenseman. NHLE 19.9

“You get a goddamn job before sundown, or we’re shipping you off to military school with the goddamn Finkelstein shit kid! Sonofabitch!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loLvbhuTh8c

I didn’t realize Chong’s Dad in this scene is Strother Martin. This guy has some great movie quotes!

jp

“LC Lukas Sedlak, drafted in 2011 by the Columbus Blue Jackets out of Ceske Budejovice Jrs (Czech Jr). Two-way center who is tough to move (6.0, 205) and has 162 games. I’m not saying he is Jaroslav Pouzar but he’s tough to play against.”

Sedlak does look pretty interesting. It’s remarkable he managed to play 3 NHL seasons coming off AHL seasons of 14, 16 and 18 points. He obviously brings some intangibles.

And this season in the KHL he found offense. Lead his team in goals, points, PIM and +/-. 5th in the KHL in goals. Huh.

duct tape and foil

What a change from the clowns who ran the show before Holland arrived. Those guys always spent all of their energy on “the big move” that was going to change everything, and lost all the small trades and made all of the wrong small signings. The small moves are what actually builds a team and we saw this in the past year with Holland rebuilding team depth one small smart incremental move at a time. Let’s see who he signs this year.

In Old Dutch we trust…..

jeetz

Hitman77,

That is a good question. I realize that people look at expiring contracts and come up with scenarios to bring is UFA/RFA or trade options.

I look at Russell’s contract of 4 mill coming of the books at the same time RNH needs a contract. There is enough there to resign nuge and replace Russell.

RNH at 8 million x 7 (2 mil raise) and Lagesson at 1 mil or so seems too easy

Hitman77

defmn: We are going to see how the flattened cap affects salaries starting after this season is over. I don’t think anybody knows for certain but I have a suspicion that ELC contracts to RFA contractswill see raises but UFA contracts to UFA contract will be closer to flat than we have seen in the past.

There just isn’t that much more room to squeeze the bottom six, bottom pair, and backup goalie contracts anymore.

Maybe Holland will have to consider drafting a possible replacement for Nuge if he’s priced out of our budget.

OriginalPouzar

Miles to go but the QMJHL has put out a statement that they are planning to start their season on October 1 and getting a full 68 games in.

I wonder if they will be able to do so if fans are not yet permitted?

Will be interesting if the CHL starts prior the NHL draft – will Lafreniere, Rossi, etc. be playing?

N64

Jordan: Best Player Available.

Always. Best Player Available is Most Valuable Player Available. Every draft pick is a chance to create long term excess value in a cap constrained world. If you need wingers and the most valuable player is a defender take the defender. If two forwards are otherwise equal take the centre. Many centres end up on the wing.

ArmchairGM

Hitman77: Maybe Holland will have to consider drafting a possible replacement for Nuge if he’s priced out of our budget.

There’s lots of money coming off the books summer 2021, there shouldn’t be any issues giving Nuge a $1 – 1.5M raise.

Russell: $4M
Chiasson: $2.15M
Pouliot: $1.33M (buyout amount disappears)
Sekera: $1M (buyout amount goes from $2.5M to $1.5M)

That’s $8.5M gone, the players being replaced by Jones ($850k) and Lavoie ($870k). Say RNH gets a $1.5M raise plus the $1.72M for the replacement players and you’re still ahead by about $5.25M – plenty to re-sign Yamamoto long-term.

Even Larsson’s $4.17M might be able to be replaced for a lot less, as there’s a decent chance Bouchard ($894k) has pushed him out of the 2nd pairing job by then.

I’d say there’s less cap pressure in the 2021 offseason than the 2020 offseason, and that’s without accounting for the fact that Seattle will take some cap away too.

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar: Well, we can’t re-sign him “today” – not until July 1 (and that date will be extended until the end of the re-started playoffs I’m sure).

Good point. After the playoffs then, get it done!

ArmchairGM

Darth Tu: Good point.After the playoffs then, get it done!

Signing Nuge this year virtually guarantees Jones will be available for Seattle. I’m not convinced this is a good idea.

OriginalPouzar

Hitman77:
With Nurse due for a long term contract after his current deal and Bear down the road, I wonder if there’s enough left under the cap to accommodate a Nuge extension.

Cap management going forward is always going to be important and this is why drafting and development are essential.

In no way am I saying that any of these players are as good as Nurse now nor that he should trade Nurse now nor that I want to trade Nurse, however, after Nurse as 2LD we have Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov, Broberg (and Lennstrom and Niemalainen).

There will come a time when a left D will need to be traded in the name of asset acquisition and/or cap space.

Perhaps Nurse can be moved at some point for an asset and he can be “replaced” by a cheaper player.

Nurse is part of the core. Nurse is part of the leadership group. Nurse is the team’s NHLPA rep. Nurse is buddies with McDavid.

Trading Nurse is not ideal and maybe that player is Klefbom but, at some point, assuming some/one of the prospect d-men keep progressing and reach potential, cheaper and younger models need to replace older more expensive models.

I believe Nuge is a “glue piece” – I think his loss will be felt massively as soon as he’s not in the org. Don’t get me wrong, Nurse isn’t replaceable inernally right now but neither is Nuge and there are better options for the Nurse replacement.

OriginalPouzar

Jaxon:
For expansion reasons I’d like them to explore waiting to sign Nuge and Larsson until after the expansion draft, which would allow them to protect more players. As long as they’re confident they would re-sign with Edmonton and they have a verbal from them of their intentions.

As I said above, that is the “ideal scenario”, however, it comes fraught with risk and, although I salivate at bringing him back and not having to use a protected slot, if he is willing to sign that reasonable term contract (i.e 5 or 6 X $7M-$7.5M), i do it July 1 (or whichever date they extend to).

I am a guy that always has his eye a few years ahead and, as of now, on expansion, but this piece is too important to take that type of risk, in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Not suggesting the Oilers shouldn’t sign some of these player but the Condors aren’t that barren. There’s no question they could use a top 4 RD but they have lots of AHL contracts on top of what LTs NHL depth chart lists above.

Brackets for players who have real shots of being Oilers next season:
(Benson)-Marody-Lavoie
Gambardella-Malone-Esposito
Kuffner-McLeod-Maksimov
Hamblin-Stukel-Safin
Christiensen-Brosseau-Folkes

(Lagesson)-(Bouchard)
Lennstrom-Samorukov (LD)
Niemelainen-Desharnais
Kulevich-Jaks
Kaldis

Skinner-Wells-Rodrigue

There’s a lot of bodies. And most of the new guys on AHL deals have pretty strong resumes. Some of them should be real contributors. Most of them are listed here.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/724/bakersfield-condors/2020-2021

I believe you just showed how barren they are on right defence, no?

While Bouchard may start the year in the AHL, I wouldn’t think he’d be there long and he may not be there at all.

You’ve got Sammy as 2RD (meaning 1RD when Bouchard is in the NHL) and he’s not even a RD.

Deharnais is an actual RD and he’s not even signed to an NHL deal.

Damn I wish Berglund was coming over now.

I assume they are trying to get Logan Day signed – back to an AHL deal.

OriginalPouzar

duct tape and foil:
What a change from the clowns who ran the show before Holland arrived. Those guys always spent all of their energy on “the big move” that was going to change everything, and lost all the small trades and made all of the wrong small signings. The small moves are what actually builds a team and we saw this in the past year with Holland rebuilding team depth one small smart incremental move at a time. Let’s see who he signs this year.

In Old Dutch we trust…..

One of the things that previous management did do sometimes, in my opinion, is “win” the small trades – they NEVER won the big trade. That was the issue.

The Maroon trade
The Kassian trade
The Benning signing
The Talbot trade

Reja

OriginalPouzar: As I said above, that is the “ideal scenario”, however, it comes fraught with risk and, although I salivate at bringing him back and not having to use a protected slot, if he is willing to sign that reasonable term contract (i.e 5 or 6 X $7M-$7.5M), i do it July 1 (or whichever date they extend to).

I am a guy that always has his eye a few years ahead and, as of now, on expansion, but this piece is too important to take that type of risk, in my opinion.

After we go on a magical ride and come close to winning the Cup I believe Nuge will sign 6×7=42 mill.

OriginalPouzar

jeetz:
Hitman77,

That is a good question. I realize that people look at expiring contracts and come up with scenarios to bring is UFA/RFA or trade options.

I look at Russell’s contract of 4 mill coming of the books at the same time RNH needs a contract. There is enough there to resign nuge and replace Russell.

RNH at 8 million x 7 (2 mil raise) and Lagesson at 1 mil or so seems too easy

I don’t rush to sign that particular contract – I rush to sign 5-6 years at $7M to $7.5M.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Signing Nuge this year virtually guarantees Jones will be available for Seattle. I’m not convinced this is a good idea.

Not necessarily:

McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Yamamoto
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones

AA, Benson, Puljujarvi available.

Deals can also be made with Seattle.

who

ArmchairGM: Signing Nuge this year virtually guarantees Jones will be available for Seattle. I’m not convinced this is a good idea.

Why?
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones
McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto
Koskinen
Or,
you drop Jones because you have Samarukov and Broberg, and protect 3 extra forwards.
Or,
You trade Klefbom or Nurse for a significant forward, protect Jones, the forward you just acquired, Kassian, and AA.
Lots of options for Holland.
Next years performance by certain players will probably help him make his decision.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Not necessarily:

McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Yamamoto
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones

AA, Benson, Puljujarvi available.

Deals can also be made with Seattle.

It’s more than likely that Benson and Jesse will not meet the requirements for exposure.

“* Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”

Benson would have to make the team and play half the games.

Jesse would likely not have played the 70 games the prior two seasons unless he signs with the Oilers and plays 40 games.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Not necessarily:

McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Yamamoto
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones

AA, Benson, Puljujarvi available.

Deals can also be made with Seattle.

AA is worth two 2nds minimum and Holland seems to think Puljujarvi is worth a late 1st; why on earth would you protect a 3rd pairing defenseman over thos two guys? Especially when the Leftorium is a thing and especially when the Oilers forward depth is terrible. Not to mention two highly touted LHD prospects bubbling under.

Makes zero sense.

Harpers Hair
so polar

ArmchairGM,

Connor Drais Nuge Yammy Athanasiou Benson… Kassian? Not really many good options to protect at F.
Klef Nurse Bear
Koskinen (presumably)

Of course, with 8 skaters instead, we could expose all F from Athanasiou onwards and protect Larsson or Jones.
I think it’d be worthwhile to try to acquire two forwards as I’m pretty comfortable exposing pending UFA Larsson as well as Jones.
Bouchard, Broberg, Lavoie, Haas, Nygard, Mcleod, Samorukov all exempt.

Edit: I see many covered this in the twenty minutes I spent trying to think of a 5th, 6th, and 7th forward to protect. Agree with all who see 7-3-1 as the better scheme – it obviously is, and even the forwards we collectively see as fifth through seventh best remain more valuable than Jones, for now.

Georges

JP:

I looked at your list of comps for JP from yesterday.

There were a few guys drafted in the 80’s in that list. I have no idea about a good threshold for top 6 scoring rates going that far back. I know they still played hockey with sticks, skates, and a puck back then, but, other than that, the game is barely recognizable.

The 90’s games are a little bit more recognizable once scoring dropped, so I guess it’s OK to include guys like Niedermayer, Zubrus, Pyatt, Wiener, and Doan.

I got a total of 17 players from your list, drafted in the 90’s or later. They were all first rounders.

8 of them scored at 0.4 Pts/GP after their 20th year, although it’s still early to say how things will go with Jost and Chytil. 8 out of 17 doesn’t provide strong support for my opinion yesterday that JP will be a minimum 0.4 Pts/GP player.

The one thing about finding comps for JP is JP is a top 5 pick, early in his career, and a 4 OV pick nearly universally expected to be picked 3rd.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016-draft/nhl-draft-rankings/

Top 5 forwards picks are special. They have a pretty high success rate when it comes to hitting top 6 scoring rates. For example, of the 17 non-Oiler top 5 forward picks between 2012 and 2017, 14 have scored at top 6 rates. Nolan Patrick may get there as well but appears to have some health issues.

The Oilers have managed to get two wins (CMD and Drai) and two losses (Yak and JP) so far with their 4 top 5 forward picks in that period.

Getting two losses out of 4 is unusual. You may get one loss out of 4 picks by chance, sure, but two? Two is unusual. Probably not chance. The fault may be with the regime more than the player. Which is what I think. Tbh, the Oilers seemed more intent on breaking down JP than building him up (never mind poor Yak). Maybe because the org. had stuffed itself on so many top 5 picks and top overall picks by the time they got to JP, they’d stopped valuing them.

I don’t think the old regime handled JP in a way a valuable top 5 pick should be handled. It was all so sketchy and disjointed. I don’t fault JP’s low scoring when I see his usage under the two previous HC’s. His numbers don’t bother me as much as they would if he had been given lots of opportunity with our scoring talent and he still fell short.

I remember seeing the weirdness in JP’s game, the falling down, the mishandling of the puck, the muffin shots, the weird placement, etc. He appeared to have lost all confidence. Understandable. I’ve heard stories that TMac spent a lot of time with JP, working on his game. The crazy thing is that the local media that reported this played that as a failing of the player and not the coach! How do you spend inordinate amounts of time coaching a highly touted can’t miss forward and get so little in return? Coach of the Year! TMac did seem to hypnotize reporters during his drone on and on bullshit press conferences. Imagine hours of that one to one “coaching” for a young ESL kid like JP. And then carrying that garbage in your head and trying to play hockey against NHL players. Bonkers.

I think JP is now mostly upside for the next NHL team and HC he plays for, hopefully the Oil and Tippett. I’m betting that what he showed to get to universal 3rd OV pre-draft choice is still there. He’s going to bounce back the way Dylan Strome bounced back. It’s early enough for that to happen.

And even if he has an 8 in 17 chance (47%) of hitting 0.4 Pts/GP in the rest of his career as per your comps, that’s still worth a bottom half first round pick. 165 forwards have been picked 16th or later in the 1st round between 2000 and 2016 (JP’s year). So far, just 58 or 35% have hit a career mark of 0.4 Pts/GP or better.

jp

Harpers Hair:
The Ducks make an unusual signing…the Swedish League MVP.

https://www.nhl.com/news/anaheim-ducks-sign-swedish-hockey-league-mvp-kodie-curran/c-317083262

Wow, Curran must be over the moon at his first NHL deal at age 30. Only 20 career AHL games on his resume before heading to Europe. Who knows if he’ll make any impact but it’s a nice story if nothing else.

Harpers Hair

jp,

Yeah..it’s one hell of a story.

Would love to see him have some success.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I believe you just showed how barren they are on right defence, no?

While Bouchard may start the year in the AHL, I wouldn’t think he’d be there long and he may not be there at all.

You’ve got Sammy as 2RD (meaning 1RD when Bouchard is in the NHL) and he’s not even a RD.

Deharnais is an actual RD and he’s not even signed to an NHL deal.

Damn I wish Berglund was coming over now.

I assume they are trying to get Logan Day signed – back to an AHL deal.

Yes, RD in Bakersfield is barren. I agree they’ll re-sign Day or bring in at least one more player, and it would be nice if Berglund had decided to come to NA for next season.

No disagreement the system at RD needs stocking, just saying that the actual situation in Bakersfield isn’t that bad right now. There are a lot of capable forwards. The 4 new forwards on AHL deals compare favourably to all the college FAs LT listed (Hamblin was 3rd in WHL scoring and the 3 college guys have all had at least 1 PPG season). The organization has done really well to get all those guys on AHL deals IMO.

On D they definitely need at least 1 more guy higher on the depth chart to fill in once Lagesson/Bouchard are gone (which is probably but not a 100% certainty). If that 1 player (hopefully a RD) is added, even if/when Lagesson/Bouchard are gone Bakersfield should have a decent D corps. Lennstrom, Niemelainen and Samorukov all have legitimate pro experience. Kulevich and Desharnais are 3rd pairing AHL options but passable and stable. The 2 new AHL deals have a chance to be good pros. Kaldis in particular has been a Hockey East all-star for 3 years running and has put up points.

Bakersfield will in all likelihood need some defenders playing off side but that’s not the end of the world. Jones has done it very well at the AHL and NHL level and I recall hearing that Lagesson and Samorukov had played right side already in Bakersfield. It’s not ideal but it’s often a fact of life at the AHL level.

The Oilers have (IMO) at least 5 quality bets on AHL deals. Pretty impressive IMO. And with a couple more adds (be it from NHLers slipping down like Granlund this year or AHL vets) they should be a strong team.

jp

Harpers Hair:
jp,

Yeah..it’s one hell of a story.

Would love to see him have some success.

Yes, it would be for sure. Not sure I’d call it probable but it also wouldn’t be a shock at all.

duct tape and foil

Obviously if RNH agrees to a handshake deal then it frees up another protected slot on the roster that can be used on a young guy who will help the team improve. It’s a decision for RNH. Playing close to home in Seattle might be appealing, but leaving the Oilers for an uncertain situation when they are finally becoming a serious contender would be hard. Plus he’s finally found real success with Drai and Yamo. No guarantee SEA will reproduce the success of VEG.

Given the uncertainty going forward, might be a good opportunity to lock him up at a fair price ASAP. He’s really developed the last couple of years (much stronger and more determined) and is now a very solid versatile top 6 forward and core player.

jp

Harpers Hair: It’s more than likely that Benson and Jesse will not meet the requirements for exposure.

“* Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”

Benson would have to make the team and play half the games.

Jesse would likely not have played the 70 games the prior two seasons unless he signs with the Oilers and plays 40 games.

Benson and Puljujarvi would still be eligible to be picked in that case, they just wouldn’t count to the required players each team is required to make available.

duct tape and foil

Yes Chia was better at those deals. I’m mostly talking abotu the Lowe era where they went on wild goose chases every summer, signed washed up UFA, and let guys like Glencross and walk away for nothing.

OriginalPouzar: One of the things that previous management did do sometimes, in my opinion, is “win” the small trades – they NEVER won the big trade.That was the issue.

The Maroon trade
The Kassian trade
The Benning signing
The Talbot trade

OriginalPouzar

Kenny’s office putting the pressure on the Feds:

https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1267964704640561152

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: It’s more than likely that Benson and Jesse will not meet the requirements for exposure.

“* Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”

Benson would have to make the team and play half the games.

Jesse would likely not have played the 70 games the prior two seasons unless he signs with the Oilers and plays 40 games.

Those are the players likely to be taken, not all the available player – Kassian, for example. James Neal for example. The Oilers won’t have an issue meeting the forward exposure requirement.

Its nice to see you getting your nightly stretching in though.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: AA is worth two 2nds minimum and Holland seems to think Puljujarvi is worth a late 1st; why on earth would you protect a 3rd pairing defenseman over thos two guys? Especially when the Leftorium is a thing and especially when the Oilers forward depth is terrible. Not to mention two highly touted LHD prospects bubbling under.

Makes zero sense.

I’m not saying they should protect Jones right now in that situation – was simply showing that there are other approaches.

Right now, sure Caleb Jones is a 3rd pairing d-man and AA is worth two seconds.

The situation could be vastly different in after next season with Jones locked in at a massive value contract and further developed – he may very well be a legit 2LD next season allowing a trade of a more expensive player. AA may score 30 next year of maybe he has another “meh” year for 4 times the price of Jones.

Strapping Jocks

So Canadian federal cabinet ministers were discussing the NHL’s proposal to play again tonight (it was the second time; first time was a week or so ago). Fingers crossed that we see some hockey in the near future!

jp

Georges: And even if he has an 8 in 17 chance (47%) of hitting 0.4 Pts/GP in the rest of his career as per your comps, that’s still worth a bottom half first round pick. 165 forwards have been picked 16th or later in the 1st round between 2000 and 2016 (JP’s year). So far, just 58 or 35% have hit a career mark of 0.4 Pts/GP or better.

As I think I said yesterday I generally agreed with your post and take on Puljujarvi. Same with todays post, absolutely agree with the large majority of what you said.

Puljujarvi definitely still has a chance to be a very good player and I agree the team situation did him no favours. The bit I quoted above is I guess the key point, even with the large grain of salt Puljujarvi is still a better bet than a late 1st. Thanks for adding that context.

Georges: I don’t fault JP’s low scoring when I see his usage under the two previous HC’s. His numbers don’t bother me as much as they would if he had been given lots of opportunity with our scoring talent and he still fell short.

The only thing in todays post I’d quibble with (sorry, I admit I’m highlighting the ONLY thing I disagree with). But Puljujarvi actually did get a LOT of time with the best linemates the Oilers had to offer.

From the NST line tool, for his career at 5v5:
Puljujarvi with McDavid —— 340 min
Puljujarvi with Nuge ———– 357 min
Puljujarvi with Draisaitl ——- 237 min
Puljujarvi with 2 of above —- 78 min
Puljujarvi with none of above 615 min

So totalling this up Puljujarvi’s minutes.
Total minutes: ———————- 1627
Minutes with 1 or more of big 3: 1012 (62%)
Minutes without any of big 3: —- 615 (38%)

Add in Strome (301 minutes with Puljujarvi but none of the others) and you’ve got more than 80% of his minutes covered with decent to great centers.

It’s true that he did get relegated to bottom 6 linemates for part of his last year with the Oilers. And also that he got less PP minutes than maybe he should have received. It’s a misconception though that Puljujarvi has generally suffered from poor linemates or opportunity through his career. And I think it’s fair for Puljujarvi to own some of his career success (or lack thereof) so far. He was very young, but 0.27 PPG with those linemates isn’t a good showing.