I didn’t have Christmas as a kid, grew up in a religion that didn’t observe it. Don’t feel sorry for me, I was raised by two parents who loved me and received lots of toys and bikes and enough sense to make it this far. When I celebrated my first Christmas (in Leduc, with my friend’s family) it was a lovely afternoon and evening. Later this year, I will celebrate (God willing) Christmas No. 39 with Mrs. Lowetide and they’ve all been wonderful.
For me, the NHL draft is kind of like Christmas in summer. In most summers, I publish my final list June 1, then await my favorite lists. Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler have published, Red Line Report has been out for several weeks, Steve Kournianos published his final list first week of June, Grant McCagg is out (and Simon Boisvert!) and HockeyProspect.com released its first round on Friday. Music! After we look at HP, we are down to Bob McKenzie’s list on Monday and then Craig Button when he publishes a final list. And then, we wait for Friday and the lottery, draft in October, November or hell maybe August.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Lowetide: 5 AHL forwards who offer the Oilers a chance to buy low on real talent
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
HP VERSUS LOWETIDE, FIRST ROUND 2020
This is a fascinating list. A reminder HP isn’t trying to predict the draft, this is a scouting staff ranking the players they would draft in order. Jamie Drysdale is the third defenseman, Marco Rossi is No. 9, Tristen Robins is in the top 15, and Samuel Johanneson is No. 31. Fantastic conversation can be enjoyed by looking over this list and drilling down on the decisions.
ROOKIE AHL FORWARDS AT 20, LAST 25 YEARS
Over the last two+ decades, the Oilers have had many forward prospects arrive at the pro level (age 20) and fail miserably in their efforts to make it to the show. Of those who did make an NHL impact, most are fringe players, enforcers or a combination of same. As I mentioned in Farm Workers the other day, the successes are men who emerge as quality role players, like Fernando Pisani, Daniel Cleary and Jason Chimera. They can mind the store and chip in offensively. Notice how many forwards ranked among the top 10 prospects below didn’t make a dent in the NHL. It’s what you can suppress, and what you can score. The outscorers make the show. Here they are, 32 strong, ranked by points-per-game:
1 Tyler Benson (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 68gp, 15-51-66 .97 An exceptional rookie season, Benson’s passing ability and vision reflected in his assist total. He isn’t a pure offensive player, there are elements to his game that will be useful in a two-way role.
2 Michel Riesen (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 29-31-60 .822 Riesen’s quality AHL season at 20 is somewhat misleading in that it was his second year in the league. He played well no matter the circumstance, so well that his entire line (Riesen-Swanson-Cleary) won jobs in the fall of 2000 on the big club. His 99-00 AHL season and the pre-season in fall 2000 represent the highlight of his NHL career (plus the 12 games he actually got into 00-01).
3 Steve Kelly (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 48gp, 9-29-38 .792 Kelly was a speed demon who the Oilers liked a “hair” more than Shane Doan at the draft in 1995. His pro debut wasn’t Doan-like (Doan had played over 130 NHL games by the spring of 1997) but he held his value better than did Bonsignore and ended up having a better (if hugely disappointing) NHL career.
4 Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768 Schremp had a tough first year pro, getting benched a few times and was a healthy scratch a few times too. His coach did have some nice things to say about him but he was always dogged by skating and coverage issues.
5 Magnus Paajarvi (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735 Paajarvi played in the NHL at 19, so this is kind of cheating (so is Riesen, the Euro’s have different rules). I like this player a great deal, great speed and an attention to the defensive game not often seen in such a young player. However, his rookie season aside, he didn’t score enough to stay in the NHL. He can skate like the wind, so don’t rule out a return.
6 Jarret Stoll(02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711 The two things I remember about Stoll in the AHL are a goal he scored maybe 5 seconds after the faceoff at center-ice and that the “shared” Habs/Oil team that year was a beauty. Stoll played with really good players and had an excellent season, which he built upon to become a solid NHL player.
I have Raphael Lavoie’s reasonable expectations for 2020-21 here, .696 on 56, 18-21-39.
7 Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692 Pouliot played on a shared team (like Stoll) and put up excellent results. Of all the kids who’ve played extended AHL time this century for the Oilers, he’s the guy who I thought could have helped them in the two-way role. It never happened for him, some evidence he balked at the checking role and injury contributed to his lack of NHL success.
8 Jason Bonsignore (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 78gp, 21-33-54 .692 Bonsignore’s career has been well documented and his 20-year old AHL season might have been his pro career highlight. These are reasonable scoring numbers for a player with a two-way game and the desire to work every shift. Bonsignore was not that player.
9 Peter Sarno (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs). 67gp 10-36-46 .687 Sarno was an interesting prospect who ended up with 7 career NHL games for two different teams (Oilers and Columbus). He gained a solid reputation as a powerplay specialist and got a couple of long looks from the Oilers.
10 Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg Jacques had a helluva pro debut and his size and speed made him a promising prospect. He lost a lot of momentum due to back injuries and lacked ‘hockey sense’.
11 Kailer Yamamoto (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 27gp, 10-8-18 .67 High-end talent didn’t get a push during his AHL debut but showed his fearlessness and created mountains of offense. Has a good chance to be one of the very best names on this list when all is said and done.
12 Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 Oklahoma City Barons) 66gp, 17-25-42 .636 The big Finn was a pure delight and the first 20-year old AHL forward in a couple of years to show up on the radar in the Oilers system. He was a little shy on speed but could have had an NHL career with a little luck. He built a fine career in the KHL.
13 Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571 Brodziak had a nice combination of size and skill. His AHL debut at 20 came on a very poor offensive team, and he built on that season (that team couldn’t score a lick), finally emerging as a legit NHL player about the time Edmonton traded him. He was an NHL regular for a long time, the next in line after Cleary, Pisani and Chimera on the list of successess.
14 Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553 I thought Jani Rita would make it, swear to God. I remember at WJC goal he scored (it was real, and it was spectacular) and also saw a few AHL games in which he always looked like he was having an impact (plus he could score goals, 63 in 204 AHL games). He never made it, but that first AHL season would have to rank as one of the best on this list.
15 Slava Trukhno (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 64GP, 14-21-35 .547 I loved his passing, Trukhno could really find the lane. He had a nice debut but was a bit of wide body skater and I don’t think Edmonton had a tremendous need for a slower skill LW at the time.
16 Bogdan Yakimov (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 57gp, 12-16-28 .491 This is a more impressive season than it looks here, Yakimov’s offense comes in a more defensive era than some of the numbers above him. Big man has a range of skills, bolted for Russia but he had ability.
17 Marco Roy (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 42gp, 8-12-20 .480 One of the truly strange happenings from the Bakersfield era is the AHL contract doled to Roy. They put him on the fourth line, had him PK and he still outscored the other AHL forwards that year (Slepyshev, 21, excluded). For the life of me I’ll never understand the Oilers not signing him.
18 Georges Laraque (96-97 Hamilton Bulldogs). 73gp, 14-20-34 .466 Laraque is the only one of the three 20-year old AHL prospects in 96-97 to become an NHL player and contribute to his team’s wins. The other two were Steve Bleeding Kelly and Jason Bloody Bonsignore. BG was a world class enforcer and an effective shot suppression winger. When the big man held the puck down low in the opposition end, you could be sure nothing bad was going to happen. One of my favourites on this list, he was part of some legendary fourth lines.
19 Phil Cornet (10-11 Oklahoma City Barons) 60gp, 7-16-23 .383 He looked like a tweener from the start, I always liked his spirit. Made it to the NHL for two games and at 30 he’s productive in the Liiga.
20 Tyler Pitlick (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons) 62gp, 7-16-23 .371 Highly thought of on draft day 2010, a decade later he isn’t so much a failed pick as a slow developing one. He has played 248 games and is averaging 13.5 NHL goals per 82 games.
21 RW Greg Chase (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 19gp, 1-6-7 .370 Chase didn’t make it but he was a talented prospect and fantastic value for where they drafted him. There’s much we don’t know about player development but his junior career warranted a longer AHL look before he was traded.
22 Jason Chimera (99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs) 78gp, 15-13-28 .359 Chimera was a speed demon who improved offensively by some distance during his entry deal in the AHL. He didn’t champion the finer points of the defensive game but stay in an NHL lineup forever.
23 Kyle Platzer (15-16 Bakersfield Condors) 48 gp, 6-11-17 .350 I always thought the pick was innovative, as Platzer was buried on a deep London Knights team in junior. He didn’t make the NHL but just posted a damn fine Liiga season.
24 Ryan Martindale (12-13 Oklahoma City Barons). 41gp, 6-8-14 He showed well in a couple training camps, you could see the size being an advantage and he could pass the puck. It never found its way to the regular season, not enough anyway.
25 Dan Lacouture (97-98 Hamilton Bulldogs). 77gp, 15-10-25 .325 Lacouture was a big kid with speed when he arrived in pro hockey. I remember him scoring a goal scorers goal against Boston (probably fall 2000) as he came in over the blueline and ripped a beauty by the goalie. Lacouture learned how to stay in the NHL after a time as a role player and played at least as long as his talent merited. The first discussion about the Oilers I ever had online was with Kim Gernack (redtwilight) in regard to his future. Miss that guy.
26 Curtis Hamilton (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons). 41gp, 5-6-11 .268 A wildly disappointing pro debut based on his final junior season, Hamilton never did get untracked during his entry level deal. Improved in year four and made it to the NHL for one game, but more was expected.
27 Kirill Maksimov (19-20 Bakersfield Condors) 53gp, 5-8-13 .250 A disappointing season but far from a confirmation he won’t have an NHL career. He can score goals, has utility and two more years to refine his skills.
28 Jujhar Khaira (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 51gp, 4-6-10 .196 He is 218 games into his NHL career despite a distinct lack of offense. Has established himself as a quality penalty killer, had a poor season five on five in 2019-20.
29 Travis Ewanyk (13-14 Oklahoma City Barons) 68gp, 7-5-12 .176 Ewanyk had a lot of nice things but the offense in junior suggested this would happen. What is the difference between Khaira and Ewanyk? Don’t know but both were shy offensively.
30 Zack Stortini (05-06 Iowa/Milwaukee) 64gp, 2-8-10 .156 Low event offensive player also slowed down the other side a little, but not on BG’s level. Got all he could out of his career and should be remembered as a guy MacT played over many more talented kids. Stortini earned every shift with hard work.
31 Mitch Moroz (14-15 Oklahoma City Barons) 66gp, 5-4-9 .136 Big man came off injury at the end of the Memorial Cup and then had some issues in the AHL, among them ice time. Moroz should have been drafted in the fourth round, don’t think he could overcome expectations.
32 Kale Kessy (13-14 Oklahoma City Barons) 54gp, 2-4-6 .111 Now universally hated for his hit on Cooper Marody, Kessy was never wildly popular with Oilers fans (return on the Rieder trade) but most of that wasn’t his fault. He was never going to score enough to make it.
Once was essentially a PPG 20 year old rookie in the AHL.
The other was a 0.5 PPG player in the USHL at 20.
———–
All i know is that your position is that, if the Oilers sign a 31 year old Ennis to multi-year contract, it means the 22 year old Benson should be flipped for a pick and that, last year, the Canucks signed a 31 year old Benn to a multi-year contract and didn’t give a 24 year old (now 25 year old) Rafferty an NHL game.
Laagesson is on his way to Edmonton from Sweden – I expect a pretty big influx from Europe over the next week
Living marooned on an island does that to people.
Am happy to see the Blackhawks, 3X champ with plenty of ammo left in this unique opportunity to make history with 4(!!) Sc’s in a post-cap career. Ditto Pittsburgh who will be a terrible opponent to have to face.
New Oilers coach Tippett’s no deer in headlights like McLellan; he will make certain the team understands that they’re in for a tough series.
jp,
That’s my take as well.
He’s likely to be value going forward a couple years. He’s got the head for the game. Willing to go to the difficult areas. Has hands. Can play either wing, and move up and down the line up as required.
Pretty sure it was Bob or Leavins who was throwing out sub million dollar contract figures. I have time for Ennis for 3x$1.25M and expect Kenny can grind that down a bit further.
This is ridiculous of course. Reminds me of the mngt style of the Oilers during the decade of darkness. Player doesn’t live up to expectations, trade him for picks. I hear the Sabres are looking for sone hockey ops people. Maybe you should submit a resume. Your first deal could be Middlestad for a third rounder.
Marino just made the NHL after 3 college years and he was 22
If he takes any longer he’ll be a pensioner
I’m not sure how Ennis’s situation is like Chiasson’s. Ennis didn’t have a career year riding shotgun to Connor McDavid (at evens and on PP1). He scored like a 2nd liner in 3rd line minutes with White, Tierney, Anisimov and Namestnikov as his main linemates.
For sure no one wants to give too much money or too much term to a player who doesn’t deserve it. It appears you and many others don’t think Ennis is a true talent 1.85 P/60 scorer (as he has been the past 2 years). I can understand that I guess.
But I think he likely is a 2nd line quality player (or close) that the Oilers may have a chance to sign for much less than 2nd line money.
May as well go home, lol.
If Benson isn’t 3LW next season he’s a tweener? Sure.
I’m not sure what decent team would give that spot to a player with 7 NHL games. Re-signing Ennis (were it to happen) doesn’t preclude Benson from earning a job. It’s good business.
One of these players scored 45 points in the AHL last season.
The other scored 36.
One of these players is a defensemen and the other is a forward.
Now you’re moving the goal posts to Yamamoto?
Its time to flip the 22 year old for a pick but the 25 year old has all the time in the world?
Not note, the 22 year old played NHL games (and he was 21 at the time) and didn’t have the like of Saunter and Breisbois called up over him – just PPG Yamamoto.
We made that mistake with Chiasson; I wouldn’t want to do it again with Ennis. Chiasson had a few one year deals under a million. He shouldn’t have gotten 2 x $2.15 million after a season with a high shooting percentage in his late 20″s. Ennis’s situation is not that much different.
If Benson isn’t apparently ready for one of those spots, he may as well go home.
No idea what this has to do with Rafferty.
He took the NCAA option and defenseman always take longer.
Rafferty’s time is now and if he can’t cut it, he’ll be a tweener.
Same as Benson.
– I’ve been adamant since the beginning of this that there is no more hockey
– I’m the first to eat humble pie if I’m wrong, and said so when they announced the playoffs
– I totally did not consider the financial implications for the Hockey industrial complex however: health is very much secondary to getting paid, and I now get that: If they can sell sausages, well goddamit, they should should be selling sausages: its just ‘bidness
– I have the luxury of running my business entirely virtually, and except for some glitches, most professional services can meet demand remotely, using techonogy: I totally didn’t recognize the desperation and the financial incentives that Hockey and professional sport has. They aren’t a charity, they aren’t serving a public good, they aren’t rallying the people:its just bidness, and that’s fine. Sport can’t work “remotely” No players, no one gets paid
– The Athletic, god bless, them is virtually awful now: they have to give it away, the dearth of meaningful content (there are some good pieces to be sure). Sport has to be day to day. They don’t know how to report on the anything other than the scores: so they need to give it away. Just like all sport content now.
– Hopefully they can do the hockey thing I guess: everything I said would happen has happened: players get the virus, players don’t want to show up, health and safety, etc. In most industries, it’s easy to say: your health is number one. But in sport, players gotta play to have everyone get paid.
– Anyway, it’s an intersting introspection: I went from being adamant there wasn’t hockey, to wow, I totally didn’t get the financial incentive, to yeah, the virus isn’t going away as I originally thought
– While I’m less confident in my original prognostication that Hockey was done, and ought to have known to follow the money, I see a lot more obstacles than consensus on how they get this done…
– Unless the Oil get the the finals of this tourney, really does anyone here care: and take that for every market?
* NFL football though: In the Fall, all the games on Sunday, regig travel, massive budgets: I still can see that happening, its way easier than MLB or NBA or NHL. The NBA though, they have a really comprehenisve plan, everyone in one location, shared on the Athletic, that I disparaged earlier: LOL!
That’s simply not true.
Benson’s time is likely now but… he’s also 3 years younger than Rafferty…
More importantly there’s no reason Benson and Ennis can’t co-exist. There’s so much flux. The Oilers only have Nuge, Nygard and Neal for LWs signed for next season. Does Nuge get moved back to C? Does Nygard get injured again? Or show he’s just not that good? Does Neal get bought out?
He may be around when the Oilers pick if they lose the play-in and win one of the lotteries….
Yep.
I’d wager Ottawa will try and move up and grab him.
Yeah, a veteran LD is exactly the same as a young RD.
If, at Benson’s age, he can’t handle 3LW, he ain’t much.
If you sign Ennis to a multi year deal to play that spot, Benson’s fate is already decided.
Rossi is the sleeper in this draft.
If Debrincat was a miss by all, how can Rossi not be?
His numbers are bonkers.
Might be around when Oilers pick.
He’s a bigger version of DeB.
His previous deals are only vaguely relevant to his next deal.
I think he would get more than $2M x 2 on the open market based on his most recent season. I may be off base.
Canucks signed a 31 year old Jordie Benn to a multi year contract last off-season and a 24 year old B. Rafferty played the entire season in the AHL…..
No, it doesn’t work that way.
There’s a huge amount of middle ground between gifting your ELC prospect 3LW and cashing him for picks because you aren’t gifting him 3LW. It’s not an either/or scenario (or doesn’t need to be).
He’s coming off a 1 year $650K contract followed by a 1 year $850K contract – not sure he’s going to get double or triple both term and AAV….. right?
He is or he ain’t.
If you have to sign a 31 year old to a multi year deal, time to cash Benson for a pick.
Fair take. But Tyler Benson didn’t 37 points in the NHL this season.
Tyler Benson is also a LW but on an ELC.
It’s go time.
Even if that term drives the AAV below what it would be otherwise?
Tyler Ennis will be 31 when/if there is a next season.
Never, ever give term to a declining player.
lol. Yes, oops.
Nice article. I hadn’t realized how little Ennis played at evens in Ottawa, and how sheltered he was. There’s definitely real risk in signing him to any term.
I’d still be open (personally) to giving him 2 or 3 years if the AAV was low enough ($2M x 2 or $1.5M x 3?). Not sure what you or others think about it (or Ennis for that matter). But that seems reasonable to me for a guy penciled in on your 3rd line who could also slide up if needed, or if his play warrants.
Oops. You might want to correct that. #canceljp
+1
Well some of it stays, yes. Much it has come and gone before it knows it has Covid.
It is odd/interesting that Vegas didn’t have more cases in the first wave though. Considering all the travel and exposure it would have seen from all over the world. They’re seeing a spike now though for sure.
One word for who Gary won’t cross by putting both in Canada. The shorter of the 2 words our host blocks.
Oh it stays and stays and stays some more. Don’t Open That Door Richard.
In this case what happens in Vegas doesn’t stay in Vegas though.
Elliotte Friedman and Chris Johnston were discussing with David Amber the realistic possibility that both hubs could be in Canada, given the spikes in Covid-19 cases happening in USA.
On a side note, I hadn’t seen Friedman for a while. If you haven’t seen him lately, it’s quite a sight. He’s gone full sasquatch.
There are lots of lawyers here that know better than me, but it probably depends on the organization and the situation. Alberta Soccer has a 5 page waiver for referees to sign to participate in the return to play this summer. It includes acknowledgements every 2 or 3 points to confirm you agree to those points, before you get to the signature at the bottom of the last page.
PA probably acquieses if they push both countries. But will be interesting to see if they really are mesmerized by the Vegas Cruise pitch or pick a US site with a better chance of working. I think the NBAPA is more likely to balk at Orlando (fewer and more powerful players), but expect both to acquiesce.
Worth noting that MGM is the official partner of the NHL for sports betting.
Follow the money.
Level of protection needs to be commensurate to level of proximity. These guys are #benningeffect close. There will be waivers and players will be able to sit it out which probably matters to make waivers enforceable.
Why would a waiver be required? I don’t see employees in other industries signing waivers. And I’m sure the NHL is doing much much more to protect their employees than other businesses.
If they pick Vegas they may as well cancel. With people traveling to the casinos and no social distancing it’s going to be very hard to play hockey when you need ice surfaces for make shift morgues
Pittsburgh and Van/Edm would be better choices.
The rest of Canada will wait for the Horgan invite this week
I’ve been wanting to say this for awhile.
If under horrible and somewhat unforeseen circumstances, the NHL were to be cancelled indefinitely…
I’m fairly certain you could write about the Oilers and keep us entertained for at least the next five years.
That is a gift sir…
Bang on.
Have been meaning to post on my latest epicurean adventure but had to take a couple days to sleep off the food coma.
Visited a client in Campbell River, Crabby Bob’Seafood on the dock. (It’s a floating seafood store) and picked up a 5 pounds of fresh BC spot prawns and some fresh black cod for Mrs. Hair who doesn’t like shellfish.
The back story is that spot prawns are a delicacy in Asia but this year the harvest was delayed by Covid and the export market has collapsed.
The delay in the harvest means the prawns had a couple of extra months to grow and now resemble small lobsters.
I grilled them in a cast iron prawn pan that I picked up from Amazon and slathered them in garlic butter.
The pan holds 22 prawns and I was only able to down 11 so used the other 11 last night in a fettuccine with garlic Alfredo sauce.
Oh my.
Any Lowetidians on the Island or the lower mainland should rush out for some of these.
Hah. Looks exactly like the NHL is asking the PA to pick one from the NBC host network column and one from the Sportsnet host network column.
My take Wednesday was that the OIC was only executed because the NHL was serious about a Canadian site. #thanskssportsnet
June 16, 2020 at 12:15 pm
I doubt the feds signed off without a signal that the NHL was serious about at least one Canadian city. It’s likely up to the PA now whether to have a Canadian city. I’ll guess Vegas and Vancouver.