It’s my belief Canada is pretty normal as modern countries go. We’ve settled some important issues over many decades without bloodshed, and survived some truly unusual prime ministers.
There are things about Canada that take some explaining. Smarties, Hawkins’ Cheezies, surviving the cold, farmers making their own replacement parts out of necessity, and Toronto.
One of the curios must be the entry draft, a weekend each summer where fans of the various teams pray to any God that will listen for the strength to endure another addled draft set.
I don’t know if Bob McKenzie is a seer, saviour or enabler, but I’m happy he arrives each summer with a reasonable order. If we didn’t have Bob McKenzie, we’d have to invent him.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ July 2015 orientation camp produced a watershed of NHL talent
- New Lowetide: Do Oilers fans expect feature minutes from Tyler Ennis on top line?
- Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
McKenzie’s list
The unique quality of McKenzie’s list is that it represents the industry, or at least a portion of it. McKenzie polls a number of scouts (believe it’s 10 this year) in what might be more accurately described as a ‘poll’ that takes about 30 percent of the industry and presents it as the state of the art in real time. It’s always fun to see what McKenzie’s list would have recommended for Edmonton, and how those differences morph through the years.
2007 DRAFT EDGE OILERS
I didn’t like this draft, despite being pleased with Gagner at No. 6 (would have been equally pleased with Jakub Voracek, who turned out to be a better player). The Plante selection passed over several quality options and the Oilers traded up for a checking center in Riley Nash. Edmonton traded No. 30 and 36 to get to No. 21. It wasn’t a strong decision. The Oilers did beat the McKenzie recommendations, but it’s a stretch to suggest the organization got enough from four picks inside the top 36.
2008 DRAFT OILERS WIN
An absolute home run pick, supreme return on investment considering where Edmonton chose Eberle. He ranks No. 2 among all 2008 draftees in goals, behind only Steven Stamkos. He could score 350+ goals in his career (he’s at 225, age 30).
2009 DRAFT EDGE MCKENZIE
Ryan Ellis was the jewel available at No. 9, but Kulikov has enjoyed a strong career (11 years averaging 20 minutes a night) that ranks as superior to Paajarvi’s. Lander>Shore, I think the Oilers did just ‘okay’ in 2009.
2010 DRAFT MCKENZIE WINS
The McKenzie list graduated three bona fide NHL regulars who I think we can agree covered their draft bet. Edmonton? Full value for Hall, and some bad luck with Pitlick (who was in the range). The Marincin pick was off the board. A clear win for the McKenzie list. This isn’t 2007 disappointing, but Oilers needed to get more from this draft.
2011 DRAFT A TIE IN STRONG DRAFT
I think this is one of the best drafts of the decade for Edmonton, the dual hits in the first round had a big impact on the team’s roster depth for the last seven years of the decade. Saad would have been another major piece, but getting two men who serve in major roles can’t be overlooked.
2012 DRAFT EDGE EDMONTON
This was not a strong draft, Edmonton was unlucky to win the lottery. I’m not sure what can be said, beyond the fact the Oilers did slightly better than the McKenzie list.
2013 DRAFT EDMONTON WINS
I was a fan of MacT’s trades down and even though they didn’t work out the Oilers should do it again if the opportunity presents itself. Edmonton got a better first-round pick than McKenzie’s scouts and that fact wins the day. There are a significant number of Oilers fans who don’t rate Nurse but I think he’s been fairly consistent and his foot speed is a blessing.
2014 DRAFT EDMONTON WINS BIG
This is a long home run, the murder hornet version of the Eberle selection. The Oilers accomplished the unlikely when drafting the 20th best player in a draft at No. 1 overall earlier in the decade, and in 2014 grabbed the No. 1 player at third overall. Fantastic selection, the McKenzie list, the scouts, had the wrong man at No. 3 overall.
2015 DRAFT A TIE
Majestic moment. The power and the glory. Connor McDavid has the biggest impact on every game he’s in, beginning with the opposition coach having a terrible night’s sleep heading into game day. Superhuman hockey player. Both McKenzie and the Oilers got it right in the easiest test in draft history.
2016 DRAFT A TIE
For a draft that is now four years old, much remains up in the air. No clear winner here, I don’t think this will rival the 2012 draft in terms of farce but it does have that feel to it. Big seasons for the entire group on the way.
2017 DRAFT EDMONTON WINS
This draft has the potential to be one of the best this decade. Yamamoto took a big step forward, and Samorukov has a chance to be a top-four defenseman if he develops. A fascinating draft by Edmonton.
2018 DRAFT TOO SOON TO KNOW
I expect we’ll be looking back at this draft in 2025 and talking about most if not all of these names having NHL success. Things broke well for the McKenzie list and the Oilers in 2018.
2019 DRAFT TOO SOON TO KNOW
I’m still amazed Lavoie hung around to No. 38. For the purpose of the McKenzie list versus the Oilers it comes down to Zegras versus Broberg. Zegras finished third in scoring at Boston University, Broberg found his way in the SHL. Miles to go.
I have it at 6-2-3 with several too soon to knows thrown in for good measure. Clear victories for Edmonton in 2008, 2013 and 2014. McKenzie and his scouts win clearly in 2010.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we’ll talk McKenzie list and more on TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will review a great golf tournament on the weekend with a terrific finish (the RBC Heritage) and Jason Gregor will talk NHL return and NHL draft at 11. At 11:25, it’s Jon Abbott from TSN1040 in Vancouver to chat hub city. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
New for The Athletic: 10 things to look for at Oilers training camp and the 2020 playoffs
https://theathletic.com/1884896/2020/06/23/lowetide-10-things-to-look-for-at-oilers-training-camp-and-the-2020-playoffs/
You don’t think they would want the future 1C? Other than Larkin, their center depth is very thin. Maybe Valeno pans out for them but Byfield is a more substantial prospect.
Well Holland is still looking to overage players (Konovalov was 21 and Bumel 19 this past draft). But you’re right the market inefficiency may have corrected as the success rate has gone down in more recent years.
That’s so kind of you to tell me, thanks!
To LT re your Dad.
I passed along your tribute yesterday to your father
to someone in Port Hope, Ontario, and today I received
this reply from her: “You have made a lot of people happy
by sending it along . I had 7 thank yous this morning.”
Never underestimate the influence of your well-considered
thoughts, Blessings, k
there you go, yes, that makes more sense
I understand points percentage for teams 8-15 (non-lottery winners) but, for the teams in the 16 team playoffs, I would think its normal seeding based off of round eliminated and points percentage among the team in the eliminated group.
To the best of my knowledge, the league has not made public how the draft order will be determined for the playoff teams (16-31)
When Gary gave his press conference a couple weeks ago he only mentioned the lottery format and teams 1-15
It’ll be tricky for the league, as they’ve already pushed their chips in using points percentage for teams 8 thru 15
This is from Wiki so it may not be 100% accurate:
-The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1–15)
-The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or play in the Conference Finals (picks 16–23 up to 27)
-The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not play in the Conference Finals (potentially picks 24–27)
-The teams that lose in Conference Finals (picks 28 and 29)
-The team that was the runner-up in the Stanley Cup Finals (pick 30)
-The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 31)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Entry_Draft
So there is a lot to juggle there with the teams having played a different number of games (and no official division winners determined)
I think they’ll just use points percentage for teams 16-27 and then the conference finalists will be 28 and 29, Cup finalist will be 30, and Cup champ 31
That’s just me guessing though
While you can understand the concern with the COVID-19 cases spiking in Nevada, a source over the weekend said the NHL bubble plans to be very tight in Phase 4 during the actual tournament and that the league at this point isn’t overly concerned and still has Vegas as a strong option.
But I think what the Oilers stressed last week in their tweaked approach is that they can get 32 people from each of 12 NHL organizations in the JW Marriott for the play-in round, which means all the NHL roster players plus coaches and trainers. Other team staff could stay at the Delta or Sutton Place. It’s believed all 12 organizations will have about 50 people each in total (players and staff) in the hub city.
But Vegas is appealing for all kinds of reasons, to players as well, and again what I keep being told is that the proposed Vegas bubble will be airtight, perhaps the tightest of all the bubbles being proposed. Nobody gets in that isn’t supposed to, nobody gets out. So I think the NHL feels pretty good about the proposed Vegas setup.
https://theathletic.com/1886196/2020/06/22/lebrun-whats-next-after-nhl-narrows-focus-in-hub-city-selection-process/
The league would prefer an Eastern and a Western Hub.
The league would prefer a hub in the US and a hub in Canada.
At the end of the day, those are preferences but not requirements.
It could very well be Edmonton and Vancouver or Vegas and Vancouver.
Yes, of course, Vegas and TO is a legit option as well but, with recent public outcry due to positive tests, and players getting “louder”, a place like TO may be falling down the list (Vegas as well).
That’s a ridiculous list…..
Ya, he split his time with Gryba and Benning – almost entirely 3rd pairing in the 2nd year (after being forced up the lineup in his rookie season).
In that second year, other than close to 300 minutes with each of Gryba and Benning, he played 63 with Larsson.
————
In is rookie year, it was Sekera (on his off-side) and Shultz and then almost 200 minutes with Clandenning.
Ughhh.
The defensive depth has come a LONG ways.
So if the league wants a western and eastern hub, they are going to pick Edmonton?
TO and Vegas it will be.
A second round pick would be great in this draft, it is, from accounts, quite deep at skilled forward.
I wouldn’t trade Puljujarvi for a 2nd rounder straight up – even though its a deep draft, I don’t consider that appropriate value as I think he is a middle six NHL player right now, potentially even a top 6.
There are few markets unexplored now as to when the Wings looked outside of the box because they were too successful, and had a long run of later picks, because of them.
A little more on Holland drafting overage players. Just looking through his Detroit drafts for examples of overage players that made it (so not really any context on how many were drafted or how it compares to other teams).
1989 53rd Nic Lidstrom age 19 1564GP
1989 116th Dallas Drake age 20 1009GP
1990 129th Jason York age 20 757GP
1991 76th Mike Knuble age 19 1068GP
1992 46th Darren McCarty age 20 758GP
1992 238th Dan McGillis age 20 634GP
1994 257th Tomas Holmstrom age 21 1026GP
1998 171th Pavel Datsyuk age 20 953GP
2000 29th Nik Kronwall age 19 953GP
2003 64th Jimmy Howard age 19 543GP
2004 97th Johan Franzen age 24 602GP
2008 121st Gustav Nyquist age 19 570GP
2011 205th Aleksey Marchenko age 19 121GP
2013 79th Mattias Janmark age 20 297GP
Wow. Pretty sure that’s a ton of high end players drafted as overagers compared to most teams. Not certain on the full context but yeah. Come on down Egor Sokolov?
Lots of room for regular roster. Some of the black aces would share 5* accomodationm. Small upgrade from the AHL.
Still guessing Van and Vegas.
Heatley knew .
The lottery is going to be fascinating. There is about the same chance of a play-in loser winning first overall pick as the Senators! It’s twice as likely for a placeholder team to win then the wings.
It’s also not unthinkable there will be 2 placeholders from the lottery. If that’s the case then each team that loses in the play-in would have a 27% chance of picking on the top 3! (1/8 + 1/7)
The players will go all-out to win, but every fan would be grinning no-matter the result of every game. It’s certainly biased, but as a fan of play-in team that would be fantastic.
Don’t live in Edmonton and have been to Rogers but not to JW Marriott. Talk about it not having enough rooms for 12 team hub but isn’t the top of the tower luxury condos?. If it’s like everywhere else in the world significant portion would be Airbnb. Understand it would make “bubble” more challenging but is it feasible to use that space?
And a VERY clean ingredient list as well for a salty snack food. I have an MSc in food science (well, food microbiology) so know this sort of thing.
More of check box item that if border opens wider the Edmonton bid will cover whatever families want.
@TSNRyanRishaug
Clarification on the family element, I’m told family involvement will be decided by public health officials and the NHL, based on the public health environment at the time. If the public health situation warrants it, these are options OEG has helped arrange for families.
Every bug that persists has different advantages. Influenza best trick is shape shifting. Coronaviruses in general seem to rely less on shape shifting and more on immunity decay. Hard to say what this one will do. But I would not bet the farm.
– The 20015 draft is amongst the best drafts in the league in the last 10 – 15 years. Could possibly be the best when it plays out.
– By far the Oiler’s best. Those early years to be sure. But treding for 4 players that have impact: even those early 80’s drafts had three: But Messier, Anderson, Coffey, Lowe, Kurri, Fuhr, Moog, Smith Podnuby in 3 years: Thats multiple lines and D pairings and G for a generation of winning
– The guy they never drafted probably helped a little bit too…
– The equivalent would have been in the 3 years around McD’s draft you cashed: Bear, Jones, Marino, Kailer, Jessie, Benson, Skinner, Samo type thing: a bunch of players and lines that really build the foundation. We don’t have that of course….
My point was that the players are going to be more interested in their 5 star deal than the staffs 4 star.
Was referring to the CBA only as a proxy for normal expectations for black aces.
Nurse played more with Sekera in his first year and more with Gryba in his 2nd.
I get the don’t bend and trade Puljujarvi for a second but isn’t this a draft where we NEED a second? Isn’t it that good of a draft ? If no, then don’t make that trade but sure seems like a lot of good players will be available in round 2.
You need to get off that YouTube “research”. This is not the flu.
Just because you get immune to it or get a vaccine doesn’t mean you will be immune to the virus the next time it mutates and makes it’s rounds. They are already finding this virus is different than the original strains. You don’t need to live in bubbles but you need to be cautious.
The players may prefer the hotel situation in Vegas or Vancouver or wherever – I’m not in their mind.
I would think they would be fine with all players at the Marriott but who knows what is most important to them.
All I was saying is that the CBA provisions on accomodations don’t really factor in as the entire format and all the logistics are subject to a vote that supersedes current CBA provisions.
I mentioned the theory that “dead cap space” comes off and can be used for a raise to Nurse. This was including the likes of Neal and Rusty coming off the books.
Of course, as I said, its not just Nurse that will need to be paid, even more, but Nuge and Yamamoto and Bear and then Jones and then hopefully AA and hopefully Benson and then Bouchard.
Its never going to stop and the team will always need to manage at the upper end of the cap – seemingly.
I’m not saying, and I was clear on this, that i want to trade a guy like Nurse, however, at some point, the cap space gained plus the asset acquisition, when there is organizational depth at the position, may make it logical.
I understand the other viewpoint as well and don’t necessarily disagree with it – there are many developing factors in this including Klefbom’s future ability to stay healthy, current young d-men development, etc.
N64,
I would but you guys are wrong, and i’m using your beliefs to take it to the nth degree. Sports without fans won’t work eventually the players and staff would need to see their family.
But I’ll stop because this is a hockey blog.
Sure, But their norms include young players rooming on road trips.i really doubt they care if black aces share at the start.
The NHL is proposing a hub city “bubble” cut off from general society.
In theory, the players (and others) in the bubble should be safer than those in regular society.
CBA permits but this isn’t being governed by the CBA rules in these matters. This type of nuances will be part of the Return to Play plan to be voted on.
One would think that the PA wouldn’t have an issue with this but you never know – they are highly concerned about “life in the bubble”.
Of course, we are talking about one week – then all who is left can have their own room at the fancy hotel.
The 5 star hotels elsewhere are not integrated into a single village witt the arena
In Van players and staff would be in 5 star secondary bubbles. In Edmonton players get 5 star in the main bubble. Tough call for the PA?
Give it a break. 1918 sure. Swine Flu. No. Seasonal flu. No.
Sports without fans is resuming .
The issue is Edmonton only has one 5-star hotel and they want to get all the players in there during the play-in. Coaches, trainers, etc. will have to slum it at the Sutton Place, etc. for the first week.
There is plenty of good enough hotels for everyone if they can fit the pretentious players all in the Marriot for a week.
There will be more than casual interest in the infection rate in the next week or two down around Tulsa by those who host large sporting events.
OriginalPouzar,
I disagree. We can aford to spend more on our defence especially once cap space opens up in the future once Russel and Neal are gone. . We need to build our defence. And keeping a guy like Nurse is key, big mean fast and decent offensively. We currently do not pay any defenceman more than $6 mil and need to be prepared to open the wallet in the future.
LT,
Using your beliefs regarding Covid-19. Where is the virus going? Why would anyone play sports again?
Only real possibilites of playing sports using your beliefs
1. Vaccine
2. Virus mutates into something much weaker
3. Virus dies
4. Herd immunity
Don’t forget the regular flu kills more young people by many multiples than Covid-19. We should all live in bubbles for the rest of our lives. Why would anyone think you could play hockey this summer using your beliefs.
I believe in option 4.
Black aces can have roomies. Problem solved. CBA permits
His math was wrong but its still not enough rooms.
I think, at minimum, teams will be allowed 28 skaters and there had/has been talk of it being 30 skaters – that’s plus unlimited goalies – each team will bring at least 3, if not 4.
Ya, I did the math on that a few days ago and came to a similar conclusion (although 12 X 30 is 360 rooms).
They are stating that all the players can fit in the Marriott and then, when the play-in is done, and they move on to real round 1, all required can fit in the Marriot.
Doesn’t line up with the amount of rooms they have posted on their website though. Its only short by a few but teams may have more than 30 players – 28 skaters plus 3 or, even 4, goalies.
Perhaps there are “devil in the details” about bottom end roster players at another hotel or shared rooms?
Aside from a few (the vast minority), I don’t think anyone wants to not have Nurse on the team but, at some point, something likely needs to give with the leftorium – to open up cap space and to acquire help at another area.
Nurse has will have trade value after this season (even with only a year to UFA status) and, if there is another d-man that shows capable of playing 2LD minutes for a vastly reduced price, it may make sense, friendship notwithstanding. Jones at $850K.
Now, I am in no way saying that Jones could just replace Nurse and what he brings to the team – not at all. What I am saying is that, if Jones proves to be a legit 2LD, even if inferior to Nurse, the cap savings plus the asset acquisition may lead to a trade making the team better.
I’m not advocating for a Nurse trade, and certainly not until after this season (if ever), but cap management is going to be a primary concern indefinitely, and Nurse is already expensive (value though) and will be even more expensive in a few years.
Yes, I know the argument about “dead money” coming off the books that can be used but there will always be players needing raises. Yamamoto in one year, Nuge in one year. Bear (maybe now, maybe in a year or two). Maybe AA if he rebounds. Maybe Benson if he pops.
Lordy, 6’4”, 240 lbs and 52-46-46-92 in the Q?
He can’t be too fleet but that beast appears to have some skill.
He’s ranked in the top 100 by McKenzie and Central Scouting so he likely won’t last too late. A worthy pick it seems though.
Edit: Holland has a pretty strong history drafting overagers. He’s not shy and has hit on more than a few over the years.
Great explanation – better worded than the one I through out (after this post but before I read this post).
Question on the last paragraph – the rest of the draft order being based on points percentage, is that for teams 8-31 or just 8-15?
I would think 16-31 are based on real playoff results, as per normal?
Hopefully the NHL is able to return to play and the Oilers make a healthy run with a healthy Mike Green.
I need to see more of this player as I do think that Holland intends to re-sign him and I do think it could be for 2 years and over $2MM.
Early usage (in his two games) shows the coaching staff thinks he has up the lineup game left – he did kill possession during those two games.
Whether its Benning or Green that is re-signed, I think the term will be two years – partially for expansion draft exposure requirements – if they do end up wanting/needing to protect Jones, they will need someone to expose – could be Lagesson but he may not play enough games to qualify.
It is turning out to be a spectacular draft – best of the modern era for the org for sure.
Tough to beat a couple of the early drafts though:
Lowe, Messier, Anderson drafted in 1979.
Coffey, Kurri, Moog drafted in 1980.
HH tells us 12*30 is 480
OP tells us teams will not lose on purpose because the chances are only 3%. But they are actually 0% or 12.5% by the time they play
Might have to wait for Speeds to confirm if they are wrong 😉
From what I know, Lapierre is a top 10 talent in the draft but, yes, the injury concerns are real and they are spectacular.
Personally, if he is available when the Oilers draft, I would pass on him. The Oilers can’t afford to have this pick bust out and need to be a bit risk adverse – from accounts, the depth of skilled offensive forward is very large and there should be a very good forward prospect available.