Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels

Mike Green’s announcement that he is passing on the playoffs for personal family reasons is both understandable and commendable. No one should be asked to put himself or any loved one in grave danger during this pandemic.

It’s left for the rest of the Oilers roster to pull together and make a good showing in the postseason. There are considerable talents remaining on the roster.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

LIKELY TRAINING CAMP ROSTER

It’s my understanding that all but Caleb Jones are in training camp. Edmonton needs that young man, especially now that Green is not available. All fans think their team has a shot during training camp and the Oilers have abundant blessings in many places. Make no mistake: Jones as the No. 7 defenseman is better than any of the names below him. It may be nothing but it could be a big damn deal as the days roll along.

LINEUP PREFERENCE

Everyone has a lineup they believe will work best, and for me the possibilities are so impressive when playing Andreas Athanasiou, Caleb Jones (if ready) and Mikko Koskinen in feature roles that I’d deploy them in lofty places.

Connor McDavid at center with Andreas Athanasiou and Zack Kassian gives the captain two big wingers with speed. AA also does have a reputation for having two-way ability (although it was buried on a terrible Detroit team) so perhaps he can deliver in an area that needs help on that top line.

Leon Draisaitl remains with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto until they prove the magic has disappeared. The trio was so dominant down the stretch, the chemistry so strong, I do believe we should expect success.

Riley Sheahan and Josh Archibald together is a no-brainer, I’d choose Joakim Nygard to run alongside. He brings speed and some skill to the line and does have two-way ability. I like all three players and believe this trio can have success. Gaetan Haas earned a spot but I don’t think he’ll get one, at least to start.

Jujhar Khaira gets the nod for me at No. 4 center, with Tyler Ennis and Alex Chiasson on the wing. Ennis can slide up and down the roster, he has scoring ability and speed. Khaira struggled for much of the season, but settled in as a pivot late and impressed. He played center for the final five games of the year, his line outscoring opponents 3-0 and about even save the Vegas game where the trio got shellacked. Chiasson is a veteran and had some success with Khaira as well late in the year. No shot at James Neal, he could plug on to this line without skipping a beat. Ken Holland gave Dave Tippett real depth and that means some tough decisions.

Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson as the top pairing gives the team a veteran tandem with puck moving and defensive ability. Larsson played brilliant hockey down the stretch and Klefbom is the team’s best overall defender.

Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear were effective together in 2019-20, in fact these two formed the top pairing for much of the year. This will be a big playoff for both men and I think playing as a tandem gives both their best chance at success.

Caleb Jones and Matt Benning is my choice for third pairing. Jones was exceptional after recall and Benning has been on a pairing that outscores opponents since he arrived in Edmonton years ago. It would be a team strength if both are healthy. That isn’t a rip on Kris Russell by the way, he’s a veteran NHL defenseman and the Oilers are lucky to have him. Jones passed him, plain and simple.

Mikko Koskinen is my choice in net because he outplayed Mike Smith over the long season. It’s a fairly easy decision in my mind.

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144 Responses to "Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels"

  1. dustrock says:

    Bear gonna get hard targeted with dump-in?

  2. dustrock says:

    I agree with you Nygard could be that strange beast known as Playoff Hero.

    Ennis the other candidate.

  3. jjmclean says:

    Rumours that an Oiler tested positive. Is it Jones?

  4. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock:
    Bear gonna get hard targeted with dump-in?

    I hope so. He can move the puck out of trouble a lot better than Nurse
    Really need AA to drive that 3rd line. Playoffs mean top two lines get hard matched so it’s important to win the soft parade battle.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    When do they print up the schedule for the entire playoffs? Don’t they need to do that before everyone can start evaluating Oiler’s chances?

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    When you say ” Klefbom is the team’s best overall defender.”, I read that as “Klefbom is the best Oiler Dman at defending”

    Did you mean that or “Klefbom is the team’s best overall defenseman”?, which would include the transition and offensive zone abilities?

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This piece on The Athletic about the coaching challenges in getting a team up to speed quickly is pretty good.

    They talk to Krueger and Hitch about it and how it relates to other somewhat similar (minus a pandemic) circumstances in which they coached:

    https://theathletic.com/1923630/2020/07/12/the-unique-nature-of-the-nhls-return-to-play-is-a-stage-where-coaches-can-shine/?source=emp_shared_article

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    When do they print up the schedule for the entire playoffs? Don’t they need to do that before everyone can start evaluating Oiler’s chances?

    The play in round and round robin for the top 4 teams in each Conference is published.

    Since they are re-seeding after the play in round no one has a clue what the actual playoff rounds will look like at this point.

    This piece has the current scheduled games: https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/07/10/new-nhl-critical-dates-calendar-means-an-october-free-agent-frenzy/

  9. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Once in the bubble – is the danger (risk of infection) more or less than the risk of infection compared to the rest of the North American population?
    Of course, the answer to that is dependent on where you live and how you live. I have some difficulty believing that playing in the bubble (once established and incoming infections identified and with daily testing) would increase risk compared to a typical lifestyle (some public interaction, groceries, day-to-day, etc), particularly for NHL players and families living in the United States. For those opting out, their choice – but I hope they maintain a very strict and isolated lifestyle for the next 3.5 months to ensure virtually no chance of exposure.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jjmclean:
    Rumours that an Oiler tested positive. Is it Jones?

    That was my first thought too.

    If it is I hope he comes through it ok.

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    I agree with LT’s defensive pairs, but do believe the coach starts Russell over Jones, just my thoughts.

    I can’t see Tippett sitting Neal, so I guess Nygard has to come out from LT’s lineup? We lose that speed, but gain some veteran filth and a real scoring threat on the PP.

    Not sure if this is a SPAM alert but NHL Rewind is showing DRW-Oilers 2006 game 3 tomorrow night, game 6 on Wednesday and SJ-Oilers 2006 game 3 next Sunday… I missed the entire 2006 on my world travels and was knee deep in 4 months of Europe during the playoffs so I didn’t see any games from the 2006-07 season/playoffs… the only game I’ve watched was the game 5 vs. Carolina that came in the box set of 10 best Oilers games… so pretty excited to see these…

  12. defmn says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    7m
    Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin announced the team has agreed with Max Domi to wait for “a 7-to-10 day period” before deciding if he will join his teammates at camp.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @TSNHockey
    UPDATE: #Canadiens announce the team and forward Max Domi have agreed to wait 7-to-10 days before deciding if the forward will join the club for Phase 3. #TSNHockey

    I wonder if he’s quarantining or thinking about not coming due to his asthma?

  14. Kraz says:

    Bob Stauffer
    @Bob_Stauffer
    Three things to Watch at
    @EdmontonOilers
    Training Camp:

    #1. Who is sharper, Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen?
    #2. Is RNH with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl?
    EDM went 14-5-5 with RNH-Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto together.
    #3. Who plays 3rd pairing LD? Kris Russell or Caleb Jones?

    Hopefully this is a sign Jones is OK and will be reporting ASAP

  15. Munny says:

    Guy Ritchie was a thing there for a while.

  16. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wouldn’t this be passing the allowable time to notify your team (Monday, I believe) if you’re available or not… I figured Monday was the you’re either in or you’re out deadline, unless of course something comes up in the testing thereafter? Anyone, OP?

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wouldn’t this be passing the allowable time to notify your team (Monday, I believe) if you’re available or not… I figured Monday was the you’re either in or you’re out deadline, unless of course something comes up in the testing thereafter?Anyone, OP?

    Well it sounds like MTL is allowing Domi to do just that.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    When you say ” Klefbom is the team’s best overall defender.”, I read that as “Klefbom is the best Oiler Dman at defending”

    Did you mean that or “Klefbom is the team’s best overall defenseman”?, which would include the transition and offensive zone abilities?

    For sure. Overall, including all things best defender. Larsson, when healthy, is easily the team’s best shutdown defenseman.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well it sounds like MTL is allowing Domi to do just that.

    How are they planning to control the bubble if they are letting players in late?

  20. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @TSNHockey
    UPDATE: #Canadiens announce the team and forward Max Domi have agreed to wait 7-to-10 days before deciding if the forward will join the club for Phase 3. #TSNHockey

    I wonder if he’s quarantining or thinking about not coming due to his asthma?

    He has asthma as well? I was thinking it was because of his diabetes.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: For sure. Overall, including all things best defender. Larsson, when healthy, is easily the team’s best shutdown defenseman.

    Thanks LT, that clears it up.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: He has asthma as well? I was thinking it was because of his diabetes.

    Dammit, my memory sucks.

    Yes, diabetes, not asthma.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: How are they planning to control the bubble if they are letting players in late?

    I’d imagine by full testing pre-entering, private jet or similar to get the to city and testing immediately once in the bubble with quarantine until test results.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d imagine by full testing pre-entering, private jet or similar to get the to city and testing immediately once in the bubble with quarantine until test results.

    Only need one person with a false negative result.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d imagine by full testing pre-entering, private jet or similar to get the to city and testing immediately once in the bubble with quarantine until test results.

    Because of a false negative result resulting in spread in some staff we treat everyone that is undergoing anything aerosol generating as a COVID patient.
    The only way to make a real bubble is 14 day quarantine

  26. godot10 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wouldn’t this be passing the allowable time to notify your team (Monday, I believe) if you’re available or not… I figured Monday was the you’re either in or you’re out deadline, unless of course something comes up in the testing thereafter?Anyone, OP?

    There are three choices involved here. The players choice, which has to be in by Monday. The teams choice, which is who they take to the tournament. And the doctor’s choice, team and NHL, which can be anytime.

    This delay sounds like a doctor’s choice to make more sure there is no Covid in Montreal’s camp before letting Domi in.

  27. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: How are they planning to control the bubble if they are letting players in late?

    There is no bubble in training camp. Players have to police themselves. Hopefully most, unlike Kassian, are already in self-isolation mode.

  28. John Chambers says:

    I’m glad Mike Green isn’t reporting. I feel Benning is underrated for his defensive prowess, and paired with Jones’ puck-moving they make up an ideal 3rd pair.

    Also wasn’t a fan of the idea of using valuable cap space on Green for next season, or taking minutes away from Bouchard.

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn:
    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    7m
    Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin announced the team has agreed withMax Domi to wait for “a 7-to-10 day period” before deciding if he will join his teammates at camp.

    I wonder if it’s the player who is hesitant or the team and league. I heard on a radio program or podcast, forget which one of course, that the league might not allow players with underlying health conditions to participate.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Well, with Green not joining, the chances of Bouchard playing rise as he is 4th on the right side option.

    It would/will be interesting to see what Coaches Tippett and Playfair do if/when there is an injury to Bear, Larsson or Benning – will they flip one of Rusty or Jones over to play 3RD or give that opportunity to Bouchard?

    I’m OK if Bouch plays a few games but I do think they need to be cognizant of the 10 game threshold – I’m generally not concerned about burning a year of a players’s ELC – its often beneficial vis-a-vis the 2nd contract but, in this case, with the Oilers cap situation, I’m very much looking forward to 3 years of Bouchard on his ELC – cap hit under $1M (well, bonuses could take it to $1.6M).

    As far as his deployment, I would assume he would be VERY sheltered and would see zero PP1 time and likely very little, if any, PP2 time.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    I’m glad Mike Green isn’t reporting. I feel Benning is underrated for his defensive prowess, and paired with Jones’ puck-moving they make up an ideal 3rd pair.

    Also wasn’t a fan of the idea of using valuable cap space on Green for next season, or taking minutes away from Bouchard.

    I was one that wanted to have Benning start game 1 at 3RD over Green but I can’t agree this is a good thing for the team – depth is key in the playoffs and this simply diminishes the depth.

    As far as next season, I was also very skeptical of resigning Green and its a non-starter for me now (without seeing if he can recover from his awful season in Detroit).

    I am 100% fine with Benning at $2M next season.

    As far as taking away from Bouch’s playing time – I have zero concern. Whether it was Benning, Green or another, it is important that Bouch is 4RD coming in to camp next season – injuries will happen and the initial 4RD will play plenty of games.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: Only need one person with a false negative result.

    I would hope they do multiple testings over a period of days before they pronounce someone virus free.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Only need one person with a false negative result.

    I stayed away from this place because of all the rabbit holes people were going down.

    Please don’t with my posts.

    I’m not trying to police the forum, just asking you not to with my posts.

  34. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Dumb question alert… does the 10 game ELC threshold include playoffs? I would assume it does but I don’t know for certain…

  35. PREDICKTER says:

    What would be a couple of good, safe and secure online betting sites I could check out? For wagering NHL futures bet. I’m betting from Canada and looking for a site that’s user friendly.

  36. godot10 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Dumb question alert… does the 10 game ELC threshold include playoffs? I would assume it does but I don’t know for certain…

    Bouchard’s ELC clock has already started this season. It is unaffected by whether he plays in the playoffs or not.

    Broberg, on the other hand…

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Bouchard’s ELC clock has already started this season.It is unaffected by whether he plays in the playoffs or not.

    Broberg, on the other hand…

    That’s not what I’ve read.

    I’ve read if he plays 10 games 1 year tolls, if he doesn’t it starts next year.

    I’ve haven’t dug into the “whys” of it.

    Why do you think the clock started?

  38. Brantford Boy says:

    PREDICKTER,

    playnow.com

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Bouchard’s ELC clock has already started this season.It is unaffected by whether he plays in the playoffs or not.

    Broberg, on the other hand…

    capfriendly has his contract as a slide candidate.

    he signed his ELC at 18 and wasn’t 20 on Sept 15 2019 so he can slide again.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Bouchard’s contract, as of now, is in fact a slide. If he plays enough playoff games that changes and this would count (2019-20) as his first season.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Dumb question alert… does the 10 game ELC threshold include playoffs? I would assume it does but I don’t know for certain…

    Yes, it would.

    There is a 9 game buffer. I don’t imagine this becomes an issue but you never know.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Bouchard’s ELC clock has already started this season.It is unaffected by whether he plays in the playoffs or not.

    Broberg, on the other hand…

    Nope, this is not the case – it is subject to slide again this year if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games (regular season and post-season). His signing age is 18 and two slides are possible.

    This is different than say, Ryan McLeod who has a signing age of 20 and isn’t subject to a single slide (recall speaking out wanting to get McLeod signed before the end of the calendar year to give him a signing age of 19 and one possible slide – his agent, I’m sure, advised him to wait, which he did).

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Nugent-Bowman, Holland did say yesterday he expects that Jones will be participating.

    Perhaps he came back to Edmonton a bit late and is quarantining? I assume he was in the US for the pause.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    As far as LT’s lineup thoughts, all points are defendable even though I think we’ll see some tweaks.

    I think we’ll see both James Neal and Alex Chiasson to start on that 4th line with Khaira – Haas gets the press box. I think coach will want his PP guys in there and we know he raved about that line in there last few games.

    I can see either AA or Ennis with McDavid/Kass and either with Sheahan/Archie. I’ve switched and think I agree that AA will get the start up top (subject to camp battles).

    With Green out, does Tippett got with Russell to replace the experience or with Jones to replace the puck-moving? I know what I want (Jones) but I don’t know what he’ll do.

    I agree, Mikko simply outplayed Smith over the course of the season and was the hotter goalie when the pause started. With that said, we know Smith is Tippett’s guy and has had playoff success. Subject to separation at camp, I believe Smith is pencilled in – he could start out hot as can be, however, he could start out like he played in December – its a risk, in my opinion.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers release their training camp roster.

    Jones is indeed on it.

    Granlund is not.

    Interesting to see Wells and no Starrett. I wonder if he’s not healthy still

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-announce-phase-3-training-camp-roster/c-317386884

    Goaltenders (5): Mikko Koskinen (Vantaa, FIN), Olivier Rodrigue (Chicoutimi, QC), Stuart Skinner (Edmonton, AB), Mike Smith (Kingston, ON), Dylan Wells (St. Catharines, ON)

    Defencemen (10): Ethan Bear (Ochapiwace, SK), Matt Benning (St. Albert, AB), Evan Bouchard (Oakville, ON), Philip Broberg (Orebro, SWE), Caleb Jones (Arlington, TX), Oscar Klefbom (Karlstad, SWE), William Lagesson (Gothenburg, SWE), Adam Larsson (Skelleftea, SWE), Darnell Nurse (Hamilton, ON), Kris Russell (Caroline, AB)

    Forwards (18): Josh Archibald (Brainerd, MN), Andreas Athanasiou (Woodbridge, ON), Tyler Benson (Edmonton, AB), Alex Chiasson (Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, QC), Leon Draisaitl (Cologne, GER), Gaetan Haas (Bonfol, SUI), Tyler Ennis (Edmonton, AB), Zack Kassian (Windsor, ON), Jujhar Khaira (Surrey, BC), Cooper Marody (Brighton, MI), Connor McDavid (Newmarket, ON), Ryan McLeod (Mississauga, ON), James Neal (Whitby, ON), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Burnaby, BC), Joakim Nygard (Stockholm, SWE), Patrick Russell (Holte, DEN), Riley Sheahan (St. Catharines, ON), Kailer Yamamoto (Spokane, WA)

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Okay. Maybe this is an inside joke that I missed.
    But I gotta ask 3 questions.
    Is there actually Jewish hockey leagues in Calgary and Edmonton?
    And are you actually bragging about leading them in scoring?
    And who the hell keeps scoring records in arec league?

    Ummmm, Ok……

    Noone ever said or implied anything about validating opinions.

    Wild stuff.

  47. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I stayed away from this place because of all the rabbit holes people were going down.

    Please don’t with my posts.

    I’m not trying to police the forum, just asking you not to with my posts.

    Rabbit holes?
    Only thing I’ve been saying was a month ago in my best medical opinion they need to leave the US and they did. I also said Vegas is not a viable option which it wasn’t
    Now I’m saying they need to move to their playing location and distance from everyone for 14 days to burn out any virus that snuck in due to the high prevalence in the US
    But Feel free to ignore posts

  48. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: I would hope they do multiple testings over a period of days before they pronounce someone virus free.

    Absolutely they will.
    We’ve found the rapid tests to be almost worthless as only about 85% sensitivity which missing one in 8 cases is terrible

  49. Rugbypig says:

    leadfarmer:
    Only need one person with a false negative result.

    Since they are implementing a daily testing regimen for all players – your false positive narrative holds no water

    Per Frank Seravalli
    ” In the Bubble: Each team will be permitted to bring a maximum of 52 individuals inside the secure zone, including ownership, players, coaches, executives and staff.

    Teams are permitted to bring no more than 31 players. The list of each traveling part must be submitted to the NHL by July 13, the day training camps are scheduled to open.

    Each team will have at least one physician, one security representative, one club Phase 4 compliance officer, and one content creator / social media member included in the traveling party.

    > Testing: Every person inside the NHL’s “bubble” will be tested for COVID-19 daily via nasal swab, also administered temperature checks and symptom screenings.

    With 24 teams inside the bubble (at 52 people per team), that is 1,248 tests required daily for team personnel only. Add in all of the other levels and it is easy to imagine the NHL requiring upwards of 2,000 tests daily to begin the 24-team tournament. That is 20,000 tests in first 10 days alone.”

  50. defmn says:

    The starting goalie question is interesting for me.

    If you look at the save % or GA average there is really no question that Koskinen is the guy.

    If you look at the win-loss records it is not as clear.

    19-12-6 for Smith in 39 starts

    18-13-3 for Koskinen in 38 starts

    I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.

    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.

    At least that is what the eye test looked like to me.

    So do you take a chance in a 5 game series on the guy who is better when he is hot but less than mediocre when he is not or do you go with the guys whose game is more predictable?

    I’m betting that is a question Tippett will go to sleep thinking about right up until the day of the first game.

    And I think there is one exhibition game before the series, is there not? Do you give each guy half the game?

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Rugbypig: Since they are implementing a daily testing regimen for all players – your false positive narrative holds no water

    Per Frank Seravalli
    ” In the Bubble: Each team will be permitted to bring a maximum of 52 individuals inside the secure zone, including ownership, players, coaches, executives and staff.

    Teams are permitted to bring no more than 31 players. The list of each traveling part must be submitted to the NHL by July 13, the day training camps are scheduled to open.

    Each team will have at least one physician, one security representative, one club Phase 4 compliance officer, and one content creator / social media member included in the traveling party.

    > Testing: Every person inside the NHL’s “bubble” will be tested for COVID-19 daily via nasal swab, also administered temperature checks and symptom screenings.

    With 24 teams inside the bubble (at 52 people per team), that is 1,248 tests required daily for team personnel only. Add in all of the other levels and it is easy to imagine the NHL requiring upwards of 2,000 tests daily to begin the 24-team tournament. That is 20,000 tests in first 10 days alone.”

    The best current estimates are that up to 50% of people are asymptomatic and I’m guessing young athletes are probably up at the higher limits although I don’t have any scientific data to prove it.
    So symptom and temp screenings for people involved in high risk activity of which 50% may be asymptomatic doesn’t help that much
    The testing every day assumes everyone who is positive will test positive aka sensitivity of 100% which we don’t have that ability.

  52. Reja says:

    defmn:
    The starting goalie question is interesting for me.

    If you look at the save % or GA average there is really no question that Koskinen is the guy.

    If you look at the win-loss records it is not as clear.

    19-12-6 for Smith in 39 starts

    18-13-3 for Koskinen in 38 starts

    I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.

    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.

    At least that is what the eye test looked like to me.

    So do you take a chance in a 5 game series on the guy who is better when he is hot but less than mediocre when he is not or do you go with the guys whose game is more predictable?

    I’m betting that is a question Tippett will go to sleep thinking about right up until the day of the first game.

    And I think there is one exhibition game before the series, is there not? Do you give each guy half the game?

    Smith starts unless he’s not ready. It was Smith that pulled his boot straps up and had some playoff like performances when the team was teetering and still unsure of themselves in Dec. If Smith shits the bed in game 1 then you give Kosh game 2

  53. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ummmm, Ok……

    Noone ever said or implied anything about validating opinions.

    Wild stuff.

    Ummmm, Ok……

    Did you reply to the wrong post?

  54. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oilers release their training camp roster.

    Jones is indeed on it.

    Granlund is not.

    Interesting to see Wells and no Starrett. I wonder if he’s not healthy still

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-announce-phase-3-training-camp-roster/c-317386884

    Goaltenders (5): Mikko Koskinen (Vantaa, FIN), Olivier Rodrigue (Chicoutimi, QC), Stuart Skinner (Edmonton, AB), Mike Smith (Kingston, ON), Dylan Wells (St. Catharines, ON)

    Defencemen (10): Ethan Bear (Ochapiwace, SK), Matt Benning (St. Albert, AB), Evan Bouchard (Oakville, ON), Philip Broberg (Orebro, SWE), Caleb Jones (Arlington, TX), Oscar Klefbom (Karlstad, SWE), William Lagesson (Gothenburg, SWE), Adam Larsson (Skelleftea, SWE), Darnell Nurse (Hamilton, ON), Kris Russell (Caroline, AB)

    Forwards (18): Josh Archibald (Brainerd, MN), Andreas Athanasiou (Woodbridge, ON), Tyler Benson (Edmonton, AB), Alex Chiasson (Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, QC), Leon Draisaitl (Cologne, GER), Gaetan Haas (Bonfol, SUI), Tyler Ennis (Edmonton, AB), Zack Kassian (Windsor, ON), Jujhar Khaira (Surrey, BC), Cooper Marody (Brighton, MI), Connor McDavid (Newmarket, ON), Ryan McLeod (Mississauga, ON), James Neal (Whitby, ON), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Burnaby, BC), Joakim Nygard (Stockholm, SWE), Patrick Russell (Holte, DEN), Riley Sheahan (St. Catharines, ON), Kailer Yamamoto (Spokane, WA)

    A good portrait of both the current and future Oilers. Nice to see Benson, McLeod, Marody, Broberg, and Bouchard.

    If they had one more spot I’d want to have Lavoie join.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Training camp tomorrow – just let that sink in for a second.

    Not just training camp but training camp and then playoffs.

    Not just training camp and then playoffs but playoffs with a fully healthy and rested Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

    How exciting.

    —————–

    I’m sure there will be some post practice media avail (zoom) but I wonder if there will be any sort of feed showing the on-ice practices? Even just for media?

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Once in the bubble – is the danger (risk of infection) more or less than the risk of infection compared to the rest of the North American population?
    Of course, the answer to that is dependent on where you live and how you live. I have some difficulty believing that playing in the bubble (once established and incoming infections identified and with daily testing) would increase risk compared to a typical lifestyle (some public interaction, groceries, day-to-day, etc), particularly for NHL players and families living in the United States. For those opting out, their choice – but I hope they maintain a very strict and isolated lifestyle for the next 3.5 months to ensure virtually no chance of exposure.

    I’ve been saying for a while, once the players are in the “secure zones” in phase 4, they are likely “safer” than they would be in their general lives.

    Of course the secure zones won’t be 100% air tight but they should be fairly close.

    The danger is really now (well the last little while) until getting in to the zones with the players generally available to be in society as they choose (albeit it with “suggestions” to stay at home as much as possible).

    Here is hoping that management and coaching staff make it very clear to the players that the expectation is “rink and home” over the next two weeks – I’m talking every team in the league.

    Sorry Taylor, you shouldn’t be going out for dinner in Phoenix. Sorry Victor, no drinks with your buddies in Tampa. Sorry Marc-Andre, you and your family will have to have your “send off day” at home.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers: A good portrait of both the current and future Oilers. Nice to see Benson, McLeod, Marody, Broberg, and Bouchard.

    If they had one more spot I’d want to have Lavoie join.

    My guess is McLeod, Broberg, Wells, Rodrigue do not accompany the team to phase 4 (subject to injuries).

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kraz:
    Bob Stauffer
    @Bob_Stauffer
    Three things to Watch at
    @EdmontonOilers Training Camp:

    #1. Who is sharper, Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen?
    #2. Is RNH with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl?
    EDM went 14-5-5 with RNH-Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto together.
    #3. Who plays 3rd pairing LD? Kris Russell or Caleb Jones?

    Hopefully this is a sign Jones is OK and will be reporting ASAP

    He’s on the roster for camp and, as per Nugent-Bowman, Holland expects him to be part of the team.

    He very well could be just finishing up a quarantine – presumably, he was in the US for the pause.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wouldn’t this be passing the allowable time to notify your team (Monday, I believe) if you’re available or not… I figured Monday was the you’re either in or you’re out deadline, unless of course something comes up in the testing thereafter?Anyone, OP?

    Opt out deadline is 3pm (mountain) on Monday.

    Jones’ isn’t opting out, well, he’s expected to be there (as per Holland via Nugent-Bowman).

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: How are they planning to control the bubble if they are letting players in late?

    There is no bubble until July 26……

  61. defmn says:

    Reja: Smith starts unless he’s not ready. It was Smith that pulled his boot straps up and had some playoff like performanceswhen the team was teetering and still unsure of themselves in Dec. If Smith shits the bed in game 1 then you give Kosh game 2

    That is what I expect as well.

    No idea if it is the right call though. In a short series like this I’m not convinced that season long stats tell you the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

    It’s more of a trust your eyes and your gut kind of decision imo.

  62. Rugbypig says:

    leadfarmer: The best current estimates are that up to 50% of people are asymptomatic and I’m guessing young athletes are probably up at the higher limits although I don’t have any scientific data to prove it.
    So symptom and temp screenings for people involved in high risk activity of which 50% may be asymptomatic doesn’t help that much
    The testing every day assumes everyone who is positive will test positive aka sensitivity of 100% which we don’t have that ability.

    Your suggesting that any false negatives will always be false negatives regardless of how many times testing is performed – that is spurious logic

  63. N64 says:

    Rugbypig: Since they are implementing a daily testing regimen for all players – your false positive narrative holds no water

    https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions

    Yes. The daily testing is critical and the move from Vegas is critical because the bubble is not expected to be a guarantee and outside rates matter.

    Here’s what happened when a bubble collapsed 8 days after 14 days of iso and same thing happened at another command.

    https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions

    #benningeffect

    But even daily testing is certain to stop an outbreak at the 1st case in close quarters. If a case is picked up with really *bad* luck it hits half a team before the 1st positive. With Edmonton and Toronto and everything planned I think they have a good chance to complete the playoffs with the measures chosen, but not a slam dunk.

    Lastly the Canadian requirement for an these bubbles is to protect the local community from the carefully reduced chance of a big outbreak in the bubble.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: The best current estimates are that up to 50% of people are asymptomatic and I’m guessing young athletes are probably up at the higher limits although I don’t have any scientific data to prove it.
    So symptom and temp screenings for people involved in high risk activity of which 50% may be asymptomatic doesn’t help that much
    The testing every day assumes everyone who is positive will test positive aka sensitivity of 100% which we don’t have that ability.

    I know in the current cultural climate how I comment leads to push back, which is how it goes. Still, can I ask this please?

    I understand that for most people (under 80, healthy otherwise) the virus is not necessarily a life threatening issue. There are no guarantees for health in life. For Max Domi, yes, because of comorbidities – particularly diabetes, although I have heard doctors say asthma (which I have) is not necessarily an issue.

    My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem? Given the resources available to care for them, and also that it will be a highly controlled ‘bubble’, and the general public is not being put at risk of an ‘outbreak’. Which is defined as one case.

    I have no doubt Covid 19 is a problem, what I can’t surround is the way data is being reported, and how that relates to what many professionals are saying, who are not about conspiracies.

    It matters for the hockey players, but also for everyone. Unnecessary fear leads to other problems, as we know. If we are going to fear things, there are many out there in the wide world that take people’s lives. Coconuts kill an unexpected amount of people yearly at 150 according to interwebs.

    A question because of your stated qualifications, I hope for an informed opinion, but understand if there isn’t one.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d imagine by full testing pre-entering, private jet or similar to get the to city and testing immediately once in the bubble with quarantine until test results.

    In the case of Domi, if he joins in 7-10 days, he won’t be joining a bubble – no bubble in stage 3.

    This does raise what the protocol will be when families are permitted to enter the secure zones when the conference finals start. Presumably, similar protocol, pre-entry, to the players – full testing for days before, etc.

  66. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem? Given the resources available to care for them, and also that it will be a highly controlled ‘bubble’, and the general public is not being put at risk of an ‘outbreak’. Which is defined as one case.

    First, the bubble is not perfect in either direction, but yes it’s required to protect the public (especially from kicking off a large outbreak outside) and I agree the bubbles are a reasonable response to that risk.

    Second. I think the best measure of serious risk would be hospitalization and consequences

    In Alberta about 1% of positives 20-29 and 2% 30-39 end up in hospital, but very small sample size. If we add in some coaching ages about 6% for age 50-59.

    If hospitalized the story does NOT end with leaving hospital alive:

    “Two months after there was no detectable virus, only 13 percent of the study group was free of any COVID-19 symptoms. By contrast, a bit over half still had at least three symptoms typical of the disease”

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/two-months-after-infection-covid-19-symptoms-persist/

  67. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem?

    Great question. Here’s my answer: I don’t know, but believe society is best suited to controlling as much as possible. So, when Alberta opened, and people who were younger and healthy re-entered the work force and took advantage of things that had previously been unavailable, I think that was a positive.

    We have had increased positives, and the death toll has increased slightly, but there has to be a line of acceptable risk because the economy has to get back to work. People have to pay their bills, rent or mortgage, so getting things as close to normal is important.

    However, the frustration over being too careful, although understandable, also compromises the good efforts of many.

    Your actual answer to the question: We don’t know.

    That isn’t enough for many, who can’t believe we’re making it up as we go along with ‘best practices’ help from those who are more learned. But this is a malady without a cure.

    You have to proceed as you see fit, as do all others. Don’t cough on me, please wear a mask when indoors at a public place.

    I hope to see you on the other side.

  68. Side says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I know in the current cultural climate how I comment leads to push back, which is how it goes. Still, can I ask this please?

    I understand that for most people (under 80, healthy otherwise) the virus is not necessarily a life threatening issue. There are no guarantees for health in life. For Max Domi, yes, because of comorbidities – particularly diabetes, although I have heard doctors say asthma (which I have) is not necessarily an issue.

    My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem? Given the resources available to care for them, and also that it will be a highly controlled ‘bubble’, and the general public is not being put at risk of an ‘outbreak’. Which is defined as one case.

    I have no doubt Covid 19 is a problem, what I can’t surround is the way data is being reported, and how that relates to what many professionals are saying, who are not about conspiracies.

    It matters for the hockey players, but also for everyone. Unnecessary fear leads to other problems, as we know. If we are going to fear things, there are many out there in the wide world that take people’s lives. Coconuts kill an unexpected amount of people yearly at 150 according to interwebs.

    A question because of your stated qualifications, I hope for an informed opinion, but understand if there isn’t one.

    Who are these “many professionals” that you are referencing exactly?

    I don’t think your comments have anything to do with the “current cultural climate”. To be honest, your comments just seem ignorant. Particularly around the topic of wearing masks.

    There is a large amount of content available about each one of your paragraphs, but you have somehow sifted all those out and grabbed.. idk, out of date? Uninformed articles?

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: There is no bubble in training camp.Players have to police themselves.Hopefully most, unlike Kassian, are already in self-isolation mode.

    I agree that the players should be essentially nowhere but the rink and home right now and that should have been the case for the last few weeks. Of course, we know that the vast majority are not doing that – I’m sure there are various levels of “protecting themselves” going on but to single out Kassian, repeatedly is clearly just propagating a narrative.

    Tyler Benson was golfing yesterday – maybe he wasn’t talking selfies in coffee shops but he wasn’t protecting himself fully.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I would hope they do multiple testings over a period of days before they pronounce someone virus free.

    Yup, multiple tests.

    The following, from the phase 4 protocol, is just for players that are local and not travelling to EDM/TOR. I’m sure this, plus additional protocols, apply to those on the other 11 teams travelling:

    Prior to transitioning into the Phase 4 Secure Zone, individuals in Groups 1-4 who are local to the hub city and who will not travel by air shall:

    • 14 days before transition into the Phase 4 Secure Zone: Adhere to diligent preventative measures (e.g.,
    strict social distancing, use of masks frequent hand washing)

    • 7 days before transition into the Phase 4 Secure Zone: Stay at home as much as possible and avoid
    unnecessary interactions with non-family members (e.g., no use of public transportation/mass transit,
    use a food delivery service)

    • Obtain laboratory based RT-PCR testing three times 48 hours apart over the 7 day period prior to entering
    the Phase 4 Secure Zone

    • Be asymptomatic with receipt of three negative tests from the prior 7 day period and have no suspected
    exposure to or symptoms associated with COVID-19

    • Local personnel must avoid car-pooling or taking public transportation when entering the Phase 4 Secure
    Zone (including rideshares and taxis). All drivers must wear and a mask/face covering.

    • For medical staff, an additional 4-day quarantine in hotel room after they enter the Phase 4 Secure Zone
    until four (4) negative test results are confirmed from NHL Phase 4 Secure Zone testing.

    • After quarantine has concluded, for an additional three (3) day period following entry to the Phase 4
    Secure Zone, individuals may perform essential work functions, and otherwise shall remain in their
    respective hotel room.

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that the players should be essentially nowhere but the rink and home right now and that should have been the case for the last few weeks.Of course, we know that the vast majority are not doing that – I’m sure there are various levels of “protecting themselves” going on but to single out Kassian, repeatedly is clearly just propagating a narrative.

    Tyler Benson was golfing yesterday – maybe he wasn’t talking selfies in coffee shops but he wasn’t protecting himself fully.

    Golf is actually one of the safest activities that can be engaged in as long as protocols around social distancing and disinfecting are being followed.

    Hanging around with bikers indoors and ignoring social distancing is about as bad a transgression as you can get.

    Kassian deserves every bit of scorn heaped on him.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rugbypig: Since they are implementing a daily testing regimen for all players – your false positive narrative holds no water

    Per Frank Seravalli
    ” In the Bubble: Each team will be permitted to bring a maximum of 52 individuals inside the secure zone, including ownership, players, coaches, executives and staff.

    Teams are permitted to bring no more than 31 players. The list of each traveling part must be submitted to the NHL by July 13, the day training camps are scheduled to open.

    Each team will have at least one physician, one security representative, one club Phase 4 compliance officer, and one content creator / social media member included in the traveling party.

    > Testing: Every person inside the NHL’s “bubble” will be tested for COVID-19 daily via nasal swab, also administered temperature checks and symptom screenings.

    With 24 teams inside the bubble (at 52 people per team), that is 1,248 tests required daily for team personnel only. Add in all of the other levels and it is easy to imagine the NHL requiring upwards of 2,000 tests daily to begin the 24-team tournament. That is 20,000 tests in first 10 days alone.”

    In addition, before they get in to the secure zone hub, they must

    Obtain laboratory based RT-PCR testing three times 48 hours apart over the 7 day period prior to entering
    the Phase 4 Secure Zone

    • Be asymptomatic with receipt of three negative tests from the prior 7 day period and have no suspected
    exposure to or symptoms associated with COVID-19

    Further, for the first three days in the secure zone, other than “essential work activities”, they are restricted to their hotel room – basically, practice, meetings, hotel room

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    The starting goalie question is interesting for me.

    If you look at the save % or GA average there is really no question that Koskinen is the guy.

    If you look at the win-loss records it is not as clear.

    19-12-6 for Smith in 39 starts

    18-13-3 for Koskinen in 38 starts

    I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.

    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.

    At least that is what the eye test looked like to me.

    So do you take a chance in a 5 game series on the guy who is better when he is hot but less than mediocre when he is not or do you go with the guys whose game is more predictable?

    I’m betting that is a question Tippett will go to sleep thinking about right up until the day of the first game.

    And I think there is one exhibition game before the series, is there not? Do you give each guy half the game?

    I agree with your general assessment of Smith having “more range” in his games and the higher likelihood of an absolute stinker.

    To me, that range and likelihood of a stinker provides too much risk.

    The Oilers likely don’t need their goalie to steal games to beat the Hawks. The Oilers are the better team and shitty tending is one of the things that could lead to a lost series.

    Not to mention, to me, despite W/L record, I agree that Koskinen was the better goalie in aggregate and he was also the better/hotter goalie whent he pause came.

    Two or three weeks ago on the Gregor show, Woodley talked alot about Mikko and, when taking in to account shot difficulty, he was actually a top goalie in the NHL in 2020.

    Its a no-brainer to me, unless there is separation at camp, but I don’t make the decisions and we know that Tippett favors Smith.

    I would think, with only one exhibition game, the goalie slated to start Game 1 would play but, ya, maybe they split.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Smith starts unless he’s not ready. It was Smith that pulled his boot straps up and had some playoff like performanceswhen the team was teetering and still unsure of themselves in Dec. If Smith shits the bed in game 1 then you give Kosh game 2

    Smith was absolutely BRUTAL in December – below AHL level goaltending in December.

    Mike Smith had an .828 Save Percentage and a 4.27 GAA in December.

    He recovered in January but Mikko was the much hotter tender when the season paused.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Golf is actually one of the safest activities that can be engaged in as long as protocols around social distancing and disinfecting are being followed.

    Hanging around with bikers indoors and ignoring social distancing is about as bad a transgression as you can get.

    Kassian deserves every bit of scorn heaped on him.

    Again, as usual, in your course of looking to propagate a personal issue, you missed the point of the post completely.

    Godot opined that players should be “rink and home” and I agree with that. He used Kassian, as he does, as an example of someone not doing that.

    Benson was an example of many many many players that aren’t “rink and home” just like Kassian.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some FANTASTIC cap info here from Puckpedia:

    (Bottom Line, the bonus overage cap penalty for next year will be nil or nominal unless the Oilers, not only get past Chicago, but win a few rounds – AWESOME)

    The MOU states that to calc Final Team Cap Hit, assume all players eligible for loan were loaned March 13 https://puckpedia.com/PPCBA

    For #LetsGoOilers: Haas, Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, Nygard

    Reduces Final Team Cap Hit $521K to $80.676M = $824K Cap Space.

    bonus earned:

    -Smith $500K

    -Haas $212.5K

    -Bear $20K

    Total: $732.5K

    If EDM loses QR to CHI, no Bonus Overage.

    If win, Smith earns $125K, total Bonus $857.5K = $34K Bonus Overage

    Smith earns $125K-$250K per playoff round won if 2 or 3 “Wins”

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: Who are these “many professionals” that you are referencing exactly?

    I don’t think your comments have anything to do with the “current cultural climate”. To be honest, your comments just seem ignorant. Particularly around the topic of wearing masks.

    There is a large amount of content available about each one of your paragraphs, but you have somehow sifted all those out and grabbed.. idk, out of date? Uninformed articles?

    Am I uninformed, or are you reading in a way that doesn’t expose you to the multiple epidemiologists, top level health officials, professors and academics, that have valid and explained concerns not about that Covid is what it is, but that the response is highly concerning and dangerous.

    Opinions counter to yours are everywhere, you can find them if you are interested. But they are not top on your Google search. The ones that concern me are how Covid numbers are counted and reported, and how in the US doctors and hospitals are paid extra if people die of Covid. It’s obviously biased. In Canada and the US, and in many other countries – no context, which as hockey stat lovers we know holds the key to real answers.

    If we do this for a disease that is not by current data (which has really big problems in how it’s gathered and what it refers to) particularly likely to cause serious outcomes for the vast majority of those exposed, what happens if something really deadly comes along?

    It’s a serious question. There are things that are happening now with our governments that are deeply concerning. It isn’t often governing bodies are effectively suspended in democracies with basically no oversight, and the ability to spend and decree at will. Those forms of government have a different name.

    Most could care less, I know. ‘Living easy’ for a long time leads to people not caring about their hard won freedoms and protections.

    It’s the political science degree that has me concerned I suppose. Very concerning things are happening in these times around extremism, autocratic behavior by elected officials, all that we are seeing in push back on racism and structural corruption, and even what we are being told about Covid and the way it’s being handled. There is a definite lack of transparency and reasonable accounting of stats, resulting in the obvious fear in many people. Why is this?

    You don’t agree and that’s fine with me. However my opinions are not unconsidered or betrothed to a particular political or other ideology, as you state. I look at all sides, and this is where I’ve landed. I feel you buy into popular narrative without looking deeply enough into it. Perhaps you don’t want to, fair enough.

    I’m off to other things now so I’ll stop getting up in LT’s grill before he let’s me know. If he let’s this comment post.

  78. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again, as usual, in your course of looking to propagate a personal issue, you missed the point of the post completely.

    Godot opined that players should be “rink and home” and I agree with that.He used Kassian, as he does, as an example of someone not doing that.

    Benson was an example of many many many players that aren’t “rink and home” just like Kassian.

    I know you like to control narratives here to reflect your personal agenda but any comparison between Benson golfing and Kassian appearing on a smooch cam inches away from from a stranger in an indoor environment is nothing short of ridiculous.

    I have no “personal issue” with Kassian but his behaviour was dangerous and disrespectful to his team mates and his family.

    If I was in Oiler management I would ensure his “rink and home” routine included only home.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Rugbypig: Your suggesting that any false negatives will always be false negatives regardless of how many times testing is performed – that is spurious logic

    No that’s not what I’m suggesting at all. Any testing protocol is never 100%. Also They will test them daily but there’s a time you can test negative and still spread the virus which can ruin a bubble.

  80. Side says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Am I uninformed, or are you reading in a way that doesn’t expose you to the multiple epidemiologists, top level health officials, professors and academics, that have valid and explained concerns not about that Covid is what it is, but that the response is highly concerning and dangerous.

    Opinions counter to yours are everywhere, you can find them if you are interested. But they are not top on your Google search. The ones that concern me are how Covid numbers are counted and reported, and how in the US doctors and hospitals are paid extra if people die of Covid. It’s obviously biased. In Canada and the US, and in many other countries – no context, which as hockey stat lovers we know holds the key to real answers.

    If we do this for a disease that is not by current data (which has really big problems in how it’s gathered and what it refers to) particularly likely to cause serious outcomes for the vast majority of those exposed, what happens if something really deadly comes along?

    It’s a serious question. There are things that are happening now with our governments that are deeply concerning. It isn’t often governing bodies are effectively suspended in democracies with basically no oversight, and the ability to spend and decree at will. Those forms of government have a different name.

    Most could care less, I know. ‘Living easy’ for a long time leads to people not caring about their hard won freedoms and protections.

    It’s the political science degree that has me concerned I suppose. Very concerning things are happening in these times around extremism, autocratic behavior by elected officials, all that we are seeing in push back on racism and structural corruption, and even what we are being told about Covid and the way it’s being handled. There is a definite lack of transparency and reasonable accounting of stats, resulting in the obvious fear in many people. Why is this?

    You don’t agree and that’s fine with me. However my opinions are not unconsidered or betrothed to a particular political or other ideology, as you state. I look at all sides, and this is where I’ve landed.I feel you buy into popular narrative without looking deeply enough into it. Perhaps you don’t want to, fair enough.

    I’m off to other things now so I’ll stop getting up in LT’s grill before he let’s me know. If he let’s this comment post.

    These are fair points.

    I also question the COVID numbers in the US and I realize the incentive to the bloat nunbers is there. But given the US’ response to COVID and how poor it has been in almost every regard, I could also see the numbers being higher than what is reported just with all of the potential asymptomatic people and the defiance they have towards social distancing and wearing a mask.

    I guess we will see how it shakes out in the US given their irreverence.

    NOW WHO WANTS TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD FLORIDA?!

  81. N64 says:

    defmn:
    Leavins on how Edmonton became one of the two hubs.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-behind-the-scenes-story-of-how-the-edmonton-oilers-won-their-stanley-hub-bid-9-things/

    The precipitator should definitely stay clear of the Vegas Strip even after covid

    SinBin.vegas
    @SinBinVegas
    ·
    Jul 2
    Las Vegas appears to have lost the opportunity to host 12 NHL teams as a hub city. With it has come a smear campaign indicating that Las Vegas is dangerous. The NHL’s “bubble” concept is to blame, not the number of positive cases in this city.

  82. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that the players should be essentially nowhere but the rink and home right now and that should have been the case for the last few weeks.Of course, we know that the vast majority are not doing that – I’m sure there are various levels of “protecting themselves” going on but to single out Kassian, repeatedly is clearly just propagating a narrative.

    Tyler Benson was golfing yesterday – maybe he wasn’t talking selfies in coffee shops but he wasn’t protecting himself fully.

    Vancouver supposedly has their Kassian in Virtanen. Guess there is probably one clueless guy on every team.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I know you like to control narratives here to reflect your personal agenda but any comparison between Benson golfing and Kassian appearing on a smooch cam inches away from from a stranger in an indoor environment is nothing short of ridiculous.

    I have no “personal issue” with Kassian but his behaviour was dangerous and disrespectful to his team mates and his family.

    If I was in Oiler management I would ensure his “rink and home”routine included only home.

    Substitute Benson golfing for Virtanan at the bar, to the STL Blues at the bar, to whatever the 3 Habs recently diagnosed were doing.

    Point is Kassian is FAR from the only NHL player not sticking to a “rink and home” quarantine.

    I’ve been very clear that I think ALL players (and coaches, etc.) should have been doing so for weeks now – they clearly aren’t as a group and the post I responded to was made solely to point out Zack who is far the only player not protecting himself to the fullest extent possible.

  84. Lowetide says:

    I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: We don’t control these young men they’re not chess pieces on a board. I think it’s ridiculous to suggest people who are golfing have crossed some kind of line and further think it’s possible to be a person of goodwill and have a momentary selfie lapse.

    Have we all lost the ability to allow for both personal freedoms and momentary lapses? Or is it off with their heads for everyone because you want to watch a hockey game?

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Vancouver supposedly has their Kassian in Virtanen. Guess there is probably one clueless guy on every team.

    Yep.

    Both serial offenders.

  86. jp says:

    defmn: The starting goalie question is interesting for me.
    If you look at the save % or GA average there is really no question that Koskinen is the guy.
    If you look at the win-loss records it is not as clear.
    19-12-6 for Smith in 39 starts
    18-13-3 for Koskinen in 38 starts
    I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.
    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.
    At least that is what the eye test looked like to me.
    So do you take a chance in a 5 game series on the guy who is better when he is hot but less than mediocre when he is not or do you go with the guys whose game is more predictable?
    I’m betting that is a question Tippett will go to sleep thinking about right up until the day of the first game.
    And I think there is one exhibition game before the series, is there not? Do you give each guy half the game?

    I agree it’s quite likely Smith has more range in his starts but I think there’s more to his W-L record than that.

    Despite his relative inability to stop pucks the Oilers have actually done better with him in net (GF% in the minutes he’s played).

    The all situations numbers with Smith and Koskinen from Natural Stat Trick:
    SmithON — 49.3%SF 52.3%GF 52.45xGF%
    KoskinenON 46.2%SF 51.0%GF 47.2xGF%

    Despite giving up 15 SV% points the Oilers are outscoring opponents more when Smith is in net. You can see the SH% and xGF% gap is much larger than the GF% gap (because Smith isn’t great at actually stopping pucks). But still, the Oilers were actually a better team with him in net, so the W-L record isn’t a surprise.

    I’d pass this off as fluke but it was similar for Smith vs Rittich in Calgary last season. It’s also weird because he seems to be helping shot/scoring chance metrics a little at even strength, but more on special teams.

    It’s strange but it looks like it could be real.

    NST link for Smith/Koskinen here, worth having a look at 5v5, 5v4 etc.:
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

  87. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I know in the current cultural climate how I comment leads to push back, which is how it goes. Still, can I ask this please?

    I understand that for most people (under 80, healthy otherwise) the virus is not necessarily a life threatening issue. There are no guarantees for health in life. For Max Domi, yes, because of comorbidities – particularly diabetes, although I have heard doctors say asthma (which I have) is not necessarily an issue.

    My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem? Given the resources available to care for them, and also that it will be a highly controlled ‘bubble’, and the general public is not being put at risk of an ‘outbreak’. Which is defined as one case.

    I have no doubt Covid 19 is a problem, what I can’t surround is the way data is being reported, and how that relates to what many professionals are saying, who are not about conspiracies.

    It matters for the hockey players, but also for everyone. Unnecessary fear leads to other problems, as we know. If we are going to fear things, there are many out there in the wide world that take people’s lives. Coconuts kill an unexpected amount of people yearly at 150 according to interwebs.

    A question because of your stated qualifications, I hope for an informed opinion, but understand if there isn’t one.

    While initially the risks to people were overstated I think we understated the risks to younger people which led to the south getting hit by a population of COVID patients that avg age is in early 30s and some need some very significant medical care.

    Now professional athletes are not like the regular population but The scary thing is these patients can clot like crazy. That’s pretty common in my field now, get called in to suck out giant blood clots in the lungs on covid patients. Some of these players have had blood clots without covid.

    I just hope they take it seriously and all self isolate for 14 days before camp. Don’t want anyone to get hurt for our entertainment

    I had a colleague at work that all looked like he was going to have is a mild sore throat and all of a sudden 3 days in the icu. And he’s in great shape

  88. Side says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: We don’t control these young men they’re not chess pieces on a board. I think it’s ridiculous to suggest people who are golfing have crossed some kind of line and further think it’s possible to be a person of goodwill and have a momentary selfie lapse.

    Have we all lost the ability to allow for both personal freedoms and momentary lapses? Or is it off with their heads for everyone because you want to watch a hockey game?

    My train of thought on this usually goes:

    -they get paid an incredible amount of money to play a game
    -they got to this level by demonstrating incredible discipline and responsibility, surely they could exercise more of the same kind of discipline and responsibility during this pandemic
    -so they should just limit all possible physical contact with people as much as possible, because if they get sick, it’s almost inevitable for them to get others sick which is very bad
    -but why should they be held to higher standards compared to regular people, who should also behave more responsibly and exercise discipline, but get to enjoy their personal freedoms and go out on the town?
    – oh its because they are playing a game to entertain people like me, who selfishly wants hockey to return for my enjoyment
    -but I don’t want them to risk getting sick for a game
    -maybe they should just cancel the playoffs and see how next year goes
    -but it has been so long since I watched hockey..
    -and it looks like the league, medical professionals, governments, the players and the union are going through a lot of work to make this happen with safety in mind… maybe it can work afterall if everyone does their part
    -damnit Kassian! STOP LETTING STRANGERS BREATHE ON YOU STAY IN YOUR ROOM!

  89. Lowetide says:

    Side: Beautiful!

  90. Side says:

    leadfarmer: While initially the risks to people were overstated I think we understated the risks to younger people which led to the south getting hit by a population of COVID patients that avg age is in early 30s and some need some very significant medical care.

    Now professional athletes are not like the regular population but The scary thing is these patients can clot like crazy.That’s pretty common in my field now, get called in to suck out giant blood clots in the lungs on covid patients.Some of these players have had blood clots without covid.

    I just hope they take it seriously and all self isolate for 14 days before camp.Don’t want anyone to get hurt for our entertainment

    I had a colleague at work that all looked like he was going to have is a mild sore throat and all of a sudden 3 days in the icu.And he’s in great shape

    Also, we don’t yet know what long term effects COVID could have on people, if any, asymptomatic or not.

  91. defmn says:

    jp: I agree it’s quite likely Smith has more range in his starts but I think there’s more to his W-L record than that.

    Despite his relative inability to stop pucks the Oilers have actually done better with him in net (GF% in the minutes he’s played).

    The all situations numbers with Smith and Koskinen from Natural Stat Trick:
    SmithON — 49.3%SF 52.3%GF 52.45xGF%
    KoskinenON 46.2%SF 51.0%GF 47.2xGF%

    Despite giving up 15 SV% points the Oilers are outscoring opponents more when Smith is in net. You can see the SH% and xGF% gap is much larger than the GF% gap (because Smith isn’t great at actually stopping pucks). But still, the Oilers were actually a better team with him in net, so the W-L record isn’t a surprise.

    I’d pass this off as fluke but it was similar for Smith vs Rittich in Calgary last season. It’s also weird because he seems to be helping shot/scoring chance metrics a little at even strength, but more on special teams.

    It’s strange but it looks like it could be real.

    NST link for Smith/Koskinen here, worth having a look at 5v5, 5v4 etc.:
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

    Yup. I think the usual explanation is his puck handling allowing the transition game to be more effective.

    I do think that when he gets into his ‘zone’ Smith is a premiere goalie but those days are too far between anymore. I agree with OP that in a short series the Oilers should not need more than good reliable predictable stops.

    I start with Koskinen but if the Oilers move on I expect both goalies to see games.

  92. leadfarmer says:

    defmn,

    Smith is more likely to win a series on his own
    But he’s more likely to loose a series on his own and this is more likely to happen

    I go with koskinen

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Some FANTASTIC cap info here from Puckpedia:

    (Bottom Line, the bonus overage cap penalty for next year will be nil or nominal unless the Oilers, not only get past Chicago, but win a few rounds – AWESOME)

    The MOU states that to calc Final Team Cap Hit, assume all players eligible for loan were loaned March 13 https://puckpedia.com/PPCBA

    For #LetsGoOilers: Haas, Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, Nygard

    Reduces Final Team Cap Hit $521K to $80.676M = $824K Cap Space.

    bonus earned:

    -Smith $500K

    -Haas $212.5K

    -Bear $20K

    Total: $732.5K

    If EDM loses QR to CHI, no Bonus Overage.

    If win, Smith earns $125K, total Bonus $857.5K = $34K Bonus Overage

    Smith earns $125K-$250K per playoff round won if 2 or 3 “Wins”

    Of note, the Nucks finish over the cap (due to LTIR) and Hughes and Petersson both maxed that Sched A bonuses for a total of $1.7M. If Petterson is a first or second team all-star, he gets a $2M bonus.

    Nucks will have a cap penalty of either $1.7M or $3.7M (which they can “pay” in full next year or split over two years).

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: We don’t control these young men they’re not chess pieces on a board. I think it’s ridiculous to suggest people who are golfing have crossed some kind of line and further think it’s possible to be a person of goodwill and have a momentary selfie lapse.

    Have we all lost the ability to allow for both personal freedoms and momentary lapses? Or is it off with their heads for everyone because you want to watch a hockey game?

    I didn’t suggest that Benson crossed any line.

    I merely used Tyler as an example to prove that Kassian was far from the only NHL player not limiting himself to a “home and rink” quarantine and his being pointed out for such was a bit dishonest.

    Of course these players have personal freedoms and golfing, taking selfies at coffee shops and even going out for a few drinks is something they are all at liberty to do.

    At the same time, every single player and person that will be part of stage 4 should have feel a personal responsibility to to what they can give to help give the Return to Play the best chance it has to work – for themselves, their teammates, their league and the fans.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    defmn,

    Smith is more likely to win a series on his own
    But he’s more likely to loose a series on his own and this is more likely to happen

    I go with koskinen

    I agree with this and the Oilers shouldn’t need a goalie to win a series and they definitely can’t withstand a goalie “losing a series” for them.

    As an aside: Mikko has shown the ability to get hot for stretches as well – he’s done it a few times each season. He could win a series as well.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of note, the Nucks finish over the cap (due to LTIR) and Hughes and Petersson both maxed that Sched A bonuses for a total of $1.7M. If Petterson is a first or second team all-star, he gets a $2M bonus.

    Nucks will have a cap penalty of either $1.7M or $3.7M (which they can “pay” in full next year or split over two years).

    So, what you’re saying is the Canucks young players are really good.

    Did any of the Oilers young players hit bonus levels?

  97. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Smith was absolutely BRUTAL in December – below AHL level goaltending in December.

    Mike Smith had an .828 Save Percentage and a 4.27 GAA in December.

    He recovered in January but Mikko was the much hotter tender when the season paused.

    I got my months mixed up it was Jan 2 against Buffalo when Smith started playing lights out.

  98. Munny says:

    defmn:
    The starting goalie question is interesting for me.

    If you look at the save % or GA average there is really no question that Koskinen is the guy.

    If you look at the win-loss records it is not as clear.

    19-12-6 for Smith in 39 starts

    18-13-3 for Koskinen in 38 starts

    I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.

    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.

    At least that is what the eye test looked like to me.

    So do you take a chance in a 5 game series on the guy who is better when he is hot but less than mediocre when he is not or do you go with the guys whose game is more predictable?

    I’m betting that is a question Tippett will go to sleep thinking about right up until the day of the first game.

    And I think there is one exhibition game before the series, is there not? Do you give each guy half the game?

    The above is a very reasonable approach to the issue. Although the three extra ties for Smith call into question whether he has the bigger range of performance. Either way, we’ve seen both goalies both stink and steal.

    In my mind it comes back to goalies are voodoo.

    That is, psychology will be playing a role. So here are some of the things running through my head…

    —I think OP is correct in saying that Koski has had two hot starts to a season. I don’t think two is enough to rely on to be sure the coin will flip heads yet again, but it is something.

    —Smith has far more NHL playoff experience including a great outing just last year. We know he can raise his game when the stakes get raised. Doesn’t mean he will do it again, but there’s more history behind it than Koski’s two hot season starters.

    —I think given last year’s playoff performance, his age and experience, not starting Smith would raise more questions in Smith’s head than it would Koski’s. I’m not MacT, I don’t want to be messing with goalie heads

    —Not starting Game 1 doesn’t affect Koski’s “hot start” streak. He would still be starting fresh from a personal p.o.v. if he starts Game 2

    —A stinker from Smith in Game 1 means the coach has carte blanche to do with the goalies as he will from that point forward with no question from the long term vet.

    —Yeah it’s a short series and one loss can make all the difference, but there isn’t enough of a difference between the two goalies in terms of record (which does matter) to be confident of picking one or the other

    …so go with the vet for Game 1.

    As for the one exhibition game… split the netminding. One would be nuts not to, I think. Every team should be giving their backup at least a period. Been a long time since any keeper saw frozen rubber fired in anger. Get both your goalies back into it while you have the briefest of chances to do so without consequence.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Some FANTASTIC cap info here from Puckpedia:

    (Bottom Line, the bonus overage cap penalty for next year will be nil or nominal unless the Oilers, not only get past Chicago, but win a few rounds – AWESOME)

    The MOU states that to calc Final Team Cap Hit, assume all players eligible for loan were loaned March 13 https://puckpedia.com/PPCBA

    For #LetsGoOilers: Haas, Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, Nygard

    Reduces Final Team Cap Hit $521K to $80.676M = $824K Cap Space.

    bonus earned:

    -Smith $500K

    -Haas $212.5K

    -Bear $20K

    Total: $732.5K

    If EDM loses QR to CHI, no Bonus Overage.

    If win, Smith earns $125K, total Bonus $857.5K = $34K Bonus Overage

    Smith earns $125K-$250K per playoff round won if 2 or 3 “Wins”

    One thing on this – Smith was 1GP away from a $250K bonus for 40 games and 6 away from an additional $250K at 45 games.

    Not sure what the league will do but I anticipate at least $250K awarded which will add to the cap penalty for next season.

  100. Munny says:

    I haven’t taken a peek at the schedule (don’t wanna jinx shit), but wasn’t some of the commentariat here saying that there are B2B games?

    If that’s the case, we’re going to see backups deployed far more than we would in a normal playoffs.

    #newnormal

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: So, what you’re saying is the Canucks young players are really good.

    Did any of the Oilers young players hit bonus levels?

    Was simply providing some facts on the cap situation – the cap situation of a division rival is relevant information for Oiler fans.

    Yes, yes they did.

  102. OilFire says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I’m not trying to pile on as you got sort of tackled a bit after your first question post there despite it’s polite tone.

    However, I want to point out that at least one of your points is completely the opposite of what is true. You say that Covid is over-reported because docs/hospitals are paid an extra fee for that, so they “juice” the numbers. My wife is a doctor and I live in the U.S. The real situation on the ground is that hospital administrators are stopping docs from using Covid tests in order to keep the numbers artificially low.

    My wife has been trying to help an ER doc at an unnamed hospital here because she got in a fight with admin. over this. This doc ordered the Covid test on a patient that was exposed to it and clearly had the symptoms. A hospital administrator blocked it and called her into his office, telling her she is not allowed to order any Covid test for any patient unless he has his authorization first (which won’t be coming).

    Why? Well, the answer is that hospital corporations are losing money hand-over-fist because so much elective healthcare is being postponed. Look up the slice of the GDP that is healthcare here, and how much it’s down here just due to people postponing things. So: hospital administrations here are stopping the tests so that they don’t have to report the cases, so that they aren’t known as a Covid hotspot, and they can keep doing business. It’s sick, and this ER doctor that got blocked is caught up fighting, but is very likely going to get fired and then blackballed from the area (that is quite common here).

    Once the numbers of infected in the area start to get pretty high, the horse is out of the barn though. I think at that point the administrators will stop interfering with the testing.

    How else do we know the infection rate isn’t lower than the published numbers? Well, two things: the test positivity rate is up to like 15% when experts say that you’re missing many many positives if that number isn’t well below 5%. Even better evidence comes from excess deaths. Look up the “Covid death rate” in NYC during it’s Covid storm. When compared to the seasonal death rates for NYC, it is clear that there are actually many “excess deaths” that must have been Covid-19 that weren’t caught and labelled under that umbrella. Circa 20% if I recall correctly. I think it’s pretty clear then that instead of non-Covid deaths being counted as the new virus to boost the numbers, we’re actually somewhat undercounting the numbers of actual Covid deaths (though obviously the official count is only approximate).

    I think overall, the picture we see of the infection spread is fairly accurate. If we had many more tests of course, we could do much better than the current fuzzy picture, but there’s no way that the current dataset is vastly *over*-reporting things.

    I would also urge caution in buying into the idea that the now-lower-looking death numbers means they were previously mis-counting deaths due to incompetence or to make things appear more dire. It’s complicated to explain the different possible reasons for it, and I don’t think we have the real statistical explanation yet anyway so I won’t guess other than to mention the factors involved: change in age of infected population, lag between infection and death, and under-testing during the first wave. But, I will say that it is quite possible to see the current trend in deaths without it meaning that we are looking at a non-serious disease.

    Edited to add: Houston just started adding refrigerated trailers outside the hospital for the bodies… Also this from today’s Houston Chronicle: “But Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows Texas is one of 24 states that publicly reports only confirmed COVID-19 deaths, not “probable” ones. And with rampant testing shortages in Texas, many patients likely died without being screened for the disease, experts said. ” and also this from the same: “Front-line doctors are skeptical that all of the deaths they see are being accurately counted. “The death certificate I signed on June 30 with a confirmed lab test is still not being reported as a COVID death,” said one HCA Healthcare Northwest physician on Thursday.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I got my months mixed up it was Jan 2 against Buffalo when Smith started playing lights out.

    Yes, he recovered from that terrible December and, if I recall correctly, he got hot and they rode him to some success. His hot streak ended and then Mikko took back over and was the better playing goalie heading in to the break.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: The above is a very reasonable approach to the issue.Although the three extra ties for Smith call into question whether he has the bigger range of performance. Either way, we’ve seen both goalies both stink and steal.

    In my mind it comes back to goalies are voodoo.

    That is, psychology will be playing a role.So here are some of the things running through my head…

    —I think OP is correct in saying that Koski has had two hot starts to a season.I don’t think two is enough to rely on to be sure the coin will flip heads yet again, but it is something.

    —Smith has far more NHL playoff experience including a great outing just last year.We know he can raise his game when the stakes get raised.Doesn’t mean he will do it again, but there’s more history behind it than Koski’s two hot season starters.

    —I think given last year’s playoff performance, his age and experience, not starting Smith would raise more questions in Smith’s head than it would Koski’s.I’m not MacT, I don’t want to be messing with goalie heads

    —Not starting Game 1 doesn’t affect Koski’s “hot start” streak.He would still be starting fresh from a personal p.o.v. if he starts Game 2

    —A stinker from Smith in Game 1 means the coach has carte blanche to do with the goalies as he will from that point forward with no question from the long term vet.

    —Yeah it’s a short series and one loss can make all the difference, but there isn’t enough of a difference between the two goalies in terms of record (which does matter) to be confident of picking one or the other

    …so go with the vet for Game 1.

    As for the one exhibition game… split the netminding.One would be nuts not to, I think.Every team should be giving their backup at least a period.Been a long time since any keeper saw frozen rubber fired in anger.Get both your goalies back into it while you have the briefest of chances to do so without consequence.

    I should note, the Mikko’s playoff save percentages in the KHL:

    .936
    .928
    .936
    .949
    .938
    .935

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    I haven’t taken a peek at the schedule (don’t wanna jinx shit), but wasn’t some of the commentariat here saying that there are B2B games?

    If that’s the case, we’re going to see backups deployed far more than we would in a normal playoffs.

    #newnormal

    Each of the play-in series have one potential back to back game.

    For the Oilers/Hawks, its games 4 and 5 on August 7th and 8th – may not be necessary.

  106. Munny says:

    OilFire,

    Thank you so much for this behind the scenes view.

  107. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ahh, thanks. Thought it was more than that. Then I rescind my 3 on 3 OT for the qual round postulation (I would’ve been okay if they did it after playing one full regular OT period, but that measure likely isn’t necessary).

  108. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I should note, the Mikko’s playoff save percentages in the KHL:

    .936
    .928
    .936
    .949
    .938
    .935

    I should in return note, KHL.

    They’re both streaky. No doubt. Can’t make a strategy off who was streakiest last. Go with psychology. We’re going to need them both (as we have all season), but Game 1, give the crease to the vet.

  109. OilFire says:

    Munny,

    The ER doctor story is behind the scenes, but the statistical stuff is just all from articles (my wife is ER, not epidemiology or infectious diseases).

    I do have a personal interest in this stuff though, as I may have been exposed last week and we have a 1 month old. My wife is off on Mat. leave, and we are on full quarantine as a joint unit with one other family. The other family dropped off a birthday cake at a house on Wed. that turned out to have Covid. They didn’t go inside the house and chances are low, but we now have to begin testing the chain of people. Fingers crossed.

  110. Munny says:

    OilFire,

    Oh dear. Hope that works out well.

    I knew the statistical stuff beforehand, including the excess death data in NY… and have been telling people about the under-reporting, but had not heard clear confirmation about the politics behind it till your post. And for that… again, I say thank you.

    All the best to you and yours; I’ll be cheering for that harder than the hockey.

  111. defmn says:

    OilFire:
    Munny,

    Fingers crossed for you here as well.

  112. OilFire says:

    Thanks folks.

    This community is the best.

  113. N64 says:

    OilFire: isn’t lower than the published numbers? Well, two things: the test positivity rate is up to like 15% when experts say that you’re missing many many positives if that number isn’t well below 5%. Even better evidence comes from excess deaths.

    Thanks for that exemplary post. Changes in positivity rate without test rate changes are a tell. Finals host Edmonton is at 1% positivity.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I should in return note, KHL.

    They’re both streaky.No doubt.Can’t make a strategy off who was streakiest last.Go with psychology.We’re going to need them both (as we have all season), but Game 1, give the crease to the vet.

    Yup, KHL.

    I would further note that, in 3 of those 5 years, his save percentage went up in the playoffs, it went down one year and stayed the same one year (well, .002 down).

    The up bumps were material.

    I think coach should go with who is playing better in the camp but, if all things are equal, Mikko was better on the year but we know Smith will be pencilled in.

  115. jp says:

    defmn: I am guessing but my guess would be that Koskinen is more consistent while Smith has ‘more range’ in his performances.
    Or to put it with less decorum. While Smith steals more games from top end performances he shits the bed more often with kind of ugly games.

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with your general assessment of Smith having “more range” in his games and the higher likelihood of an absolute stinker.
    To me, that range and likelihood of a stinker provides too much risk.

    What do the numbers say?

    39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.

    .950 SV%
    Smith — 6
    Koskinen 10

    I didn’t try to look at who was starter/got pulled/came in in relief. Neither goalie had a single appearance all year less than 20 minutes though (and there was only one of those).

    Rather than more range, it kinda just looks like Smith was worse at stopping pucks more often than Koskinen.

    Edit: well that’s annoying. Most of my actual post disappeared.

    39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.

    .950 SV%
    Smith — 6
    Koskinen 10

    2nd Edit:
    I have no idea what’s going on. Someone doesn’t want you to see the numbers… (typed it in a 2nd time but won’t translate to the internet) (maybe the syntax?)

    Anyway, Smith has more shitty games. They have similar decent games (exactly the same between .850 and .950 SV%) and Koskinen, as you actually can see, has more good games.

    3rd edit:
    Yup, the I used the “greater than”, “less than” symbols on the SV% and deleted (but did not quote) my post..

  116. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    defmn,

    Smith is more likely to win a series on his own
    But he’s more likely to loose a series on his own and this is more likely to happen

    I go with koskinen

    That’s the beauty(?) of this version of the Oilers.

    Neither goalie will get the chance to lose a series on his own.

    (that’s not meant as an argument for Smith btw)

  117. jp says:

    OilFire,

    As others have said, appreciate the info and all the best to you and yours.

  118. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, KHL.

    I would further note that, in 3 of those 5 years, his save percentage went up in the playoffs, it went down one year and stayed the same one year (well, .002 down).

    The up bumps were material.

    I think coach should go with who is playing better in the camp but, if all things are equal, Mikko was better on the year but we know Smith will be pencilled in.

    Unless I’m reading the stats wrong, in all of the years Smith went to the playoffs, his SV percentage dramatically increased.

    Scoring typically drops in hockey playoffs, so I don’t take the above as evidence for anything (other than scoring typically drops).

  119. Munny says:

    jp: That’s the beauty(?) of this version of the Oilers.

    Neither goalie will get the chance to lose a series on his own.

    (that’s not meant as an argument for Smith btw)

    I think we’re just arguing about Game 1. I hope so because I think we’ll need both goalies for the team to do well in the Covid Cup.

  120. defmn says:

    jp:
    What do the numbers say?

    39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.

    .950 SV%
    Smith— 6
    Koskinen 10

    I didn’t try to look at who was starter/got pulled/came in in relief. Neither goalie had a single appearance all year less than 20 minutes though (and there was only one of those).

    Rather than more range, it kinda just looks like Smith was worse at stopping pucks more often than Koskinen.

    Edit: well that’s annoying. Most of my actual post disappeared.

    39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.

    .950 SV%
    Smith— 6
    Koskinen 10

    2nd Edit:
    I have no idea what’s going on. Someone doesn’t want you to see the numbers… (typed it in a 2nd time but won’t translate to the internet) (maybe thesyntax?)

    Anyway, Smith has more shitty games. They have similar decent games (exactly the same between .850 and .950 SV%) and Koskinen, as you actually can see, has more good games.

    3rd edit:
    Yup, the I used the “greater than”, “less than” symbols on the SV% and deleted (but did not quote) my post..

    Not sure I am following exactly. What does the

    .950 SV%
    Smith— 6
    Koskinen 10

    refer to exactly?

  121. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: We don’t control these young men they’re not chess pieces on a board. I think it’s ridiculous to suggest people who are golfing have crossed some kind of line and further think it’s possible to be a person of goodwill and have a momentary selfie lapse.

    Have we all lost the ability to allow for both personal freedoms and momentary lapses? Or is it off with their heads for everyone because you want to watch a hockey game?

    Excellent, excellent comment. Pro athletes are people too. We forget that too easily. I think the vast majority of players will take this very seriously now that training camps are starting. Most guys don’t want to be the teammate who puts the rest of he team at risk by doing something stupid.

  122. Munny says:

    jp: What do the numbers say?

    39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.

    .950 SV%
    Smith — 6
    Koskinen 10

    Those numbers don’t say a lot to me.

    Koski clearly has the better SV percentage on the year as a whole. The numbers above are basically saying the same thing. I.e. nothing new.

    What I’d want to know is the details about the games. Was the team in front of the keeper selling the farm? Were the games all about the goaler having a bad day? Were there more penalties/powerplays in those games, etc., etc…

    I will say up front that I expect the younger fellow to be more consistent and reliable in the long run. As he seemingly proved to be this season.

    But I give him a chance to experience the NHL playoffs from the bench (and he has yet to ever do even that) in Game 1, play the vet, and run with a no-lose scenario with respect to goalie deployment.

    Play Koski in Game 1, thus dissing the vet and then if Koski shits the bed, we are in a much tougher spot than the other way around, in my opinion.

  123. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I will say that I’ve been here since the beginning and that… might be one of LT’s absolute best comment posts.

  124. Munny says:

    defmn,

    Games is the way I took it.

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny:
    I haven’t taken a peek at the schedule (don’t wanna jinx shit), but wasn’t some of the commentariat here saying that there are B2B games?

    If that’s the case, we’re going to see backups deployed far more than we would in a normal playoffs.

    #newnormal

    Oilers B2B is scheduled for Games 4&5 so they might not happen. For other teams, it’s Games 2&3 and 3&4.

  126. jp says:

    Munny: I think we’re just arguing about Game 1.I hope so because I think we’ll need both goalies for the team to do well in the Covid Cup.

    Yes, agreed. This was a direct response to “Smith can win you a series, Smith can lose you a series”.

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I should note, the Mikko’s playoff save percentages in the KHL:

    .936
    .928
    .936
    .949
    .938
    .935

    He’s won two cups in the KHL. Much weaker league of course, but it shows he can handle the pressure.

  128. jp says:

    defmn: Not sure I am following exactly. What does the

    .950 SV%
    Smith— 6
    Koskinen 10

    refer to exactly?

    Yeah the edits tried to explain the failed post.

    I looked at how many games each goalie played that ended with a given SV%. To see if there was evidence of wider performance swings by Smith (“more range”).

    I can probably do this by memory now after typing it twice

    Less than .800
    Smith 4
    Kosk 1

    .800-849
    Smith 6
    Kosk 4

    .850-.899
    Smith 9
    Kosk 8

    .900-.949
    Smith 15
    Kosk 14

    better than .950
    Smith 6
    Kosk 10

    I think that’s right.

    So the SV% doesn’t seem to show more range. Just less good and more shitty performances by Smith. Not very interesting in the end. (and using <.850 and the like was a bad idea)

  129. Munny says:

    jp: Less than .800
    Smith 4
    Kosk 1

    .800-849
    Smith 6
    Kosk 4

    .850-.899
    Smith 9
    Kosk 8

    .900-.949
    Smith 15
    Kosk 14

    better than .950
    Smith 6
    Kosk 10

    Actually, when I originally read the post one of the things I wondered about was the other ranges, so thanks for re-posting and clearing that up.

    I think you’ve proved Defmn’s hypothesis to be correct.

  130. jp says:

    Munny: Those numbers don’t say a lot to me.

    Koski clearly has the better SV percentage on the year as a whole.The numbers above are basically saying the same thing.I.e. nothing new.

    What I’d want to know is the details about the games.Was the team in front of the keeper selling the farm?Were the games all about the goaler having a bad day?Were there more penalties/powerplays in those games, etc., etc…

    I will say up front that I expect the younger fellow to be more consistent and reliable in the long run.As he seemingly proved to be this season.

    But I give him a chance to experience the NHL playoffs from the bench (and he has yet to ever do even that) in Game 1, play the vet, and run with a no-lose scenario with respect to goalie deployment.

    Play Koski in Game 1, thus dissing the vet and then if Koski shits the bed, we are in a much tougher spot than the other way around, in my opinion.

    As just explained to defmn most of my intended post failed to make it to the final.

    Was trying to see if Smith had more good and more bad starts (‘more range’, as defmn originally said). The numbers just look like he wasn’t as good overall (as you say). It was indeed nothing new.

    I had/have no issue with Smith starting game 1 and agree with your logic on starting him in addition.

  131. digger50 says:

    Harpers Hair: Golf is actually one of the safest activities that can be engaged in as long as protocols around social distancing and disinfecting are being followed.

    Hanging around with bikers indoors and ignoring social distancing is about as bad a transgression as you can get.

    Kassian deserves every bit of scorn heaped on him.

    HH – quotes Absolute nonsense once again

  132. Munny says:

    jp,

    Sorry, in my reply I lost track of your focus on Defmn’s comment and was applying your post to the Game 1 starter discussion. I think you did a good job of looking at Defmn’s musings. The “less decorum” version seems supported by the data… ie, out of the outlier performances (good and bad), Smith’s are nearly 50-50, ie, we can be more confident that he will provide more range in performance good and bad. He’s nearly as likely to stink as he is to steal, given a large enough body of data. Regular season data doesn’t indicate the same with Koski.

  133. defmn says:

    jp: Yeah the edits tried to explain the failed post.

    I looked at how many games each goalie played that ended with a given SV%. To see if there was evidence of wider performance swings by Smith (“more range”).

    I can probably do this by memory now after typing it twice

    Less than .800
    Smith 4
    Kosk 1

    .800-849
    Smith 6
    Kosk 4

    .850-.899
    Smith 9
    Kosk 8

    .900-.949
    Smith 15
    Kosk 14

    better than .950
    Smith 6
    Kosk 10

    I think that’s right.

    So the SV% doesn’t seem to show more range. Just less good and more shitty performances by Smith. Not very interesting in the end. (and using <.850 and the like was a bad idea)

    Thanks. Got it now. Not sure I think it disproves or proves anything about a short series though for me. The numbers clearly favour Koskinen for the season. It could be my old memory, of course, but I seem to remember more ‘hilight’ or important saves from Smith which was all that I was getting at.

    Maybe it is just his swagger when he is out there. He is clearly not as good as Koskinen over time.

  134. Munny says:

    defmn: He is clearly not as good as Koskinen over time.

    Agreed.

    But I’ve always thought that about this season, and Smith would still be my starter Game 1. Swagger being a big part of that.

  135. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I know in the current cultural climate how I comment leads to push back, which is how it goes. Still, can I ask this please?

    I understand that for most people (under 80, healthy otherwise) the virus is not necessarily a life threatening issue. There are no guarantees for health in life. For Max Domi, yes, because of comorbidities – particularly diabetes, although I have heard doctors say asthma (which I have) is not necessarily an issue.

    My question is, are the vast majority of players at risk of anything other than getting a flu like problem? Given the resources available to care for them, and also that it will be a highly controlled ‘bubble’, and the general public is not being put at risk of an ‘outbreak’. Which is defined as one case.

    I have no doubt Covid 19 is a problem, what I can’t surround is the way data is being reported, and how that relates to what many professionals are saying, who are not about conspiracies.

    It matters for the hockey players, but also for everyone. Unnecessary fear leads to other problems, as we know. If we are going to fear things, there are many out there in the wide world that take people’s lives. Coconuts kill an unexpected amount of people yearly at 150 according to interwebs.

    A question because of your stated qualifications, I hope for an informed opinion, but understand if there isn’t one.

    I live in Calgary, on Thursday I had a meeting with a contractor we work with quite often. On 12-13 March he was set up at a tradeshow in Southern Alberta and a woman from Toronto had her booth set-up across from him. She was coughing and sweating the entire time. 2 days later he had the same symptoms and was very ill for about 1 week. He could not get tested, since he hadn’t left the country.

    We were aware as this was happening based on phone calls, but no one at the tradeshow was officially announced as having had Covid-19.

    This contractor has 2 adult daughters, they both visited him the Sunday after the tradeshow and had not gone anywhere else the week prior or following. They were both diagnosed with Covid. His 30 yr old daughter, an avid hiker was hospitalized.

    She has officially “recovered”, but she now has significantly reduced lung function. She is unable to walk more than 30 feet without having to stop to take a break. The contractor has also developed a corn allergy.

    I doubt these are unique stories.

  136. jp says:

    Munny,

    defmn,

    Well, Smith certainly has swagger. 🙂

  137. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    I’m sure they’re not, but wow.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Monday, July 13 – TRAINING CAMP!

    Who is excited to hear some post practice verbal?

    Maybe even hear about initial lines and pairings?

  139. hunter1909 says:

    €√¥£€^$: I live in Calgary, on Thursday I had a meeting with a contractor we work with quite often. On 12-13 March he was set up at a tradeshow in Southern Alberta and a woman from Toronto had her booth set-up across from him.She was coughing and sweating the entire time. 2 days later he had the same symptoms and was very ill for about 1 week.He could not get tested, since he hadn’t left the country.

    We were aware as this was happening based on phone calls, but no one at the tradeshow was officially announced as having had Covid-19.

    This contractor has 2 adult daughters, they both visited him the Sunday after the tradeshow and had not gone anywhere else the week prior or following. They were both diagnosed with Covid.His 30 yr old daughter, an avid hiker was hospitalized.

    She has officially “recovered”, but she now has significantly reduced lung function.She is unable to walk more than 30 feet without having to stop to take a break.The contractor has also developed a corn allergy.

    I doubt these are unique stories.

    A story like this illustrates the need to stop trusting “official” information and start exercising common sense. If we get ill the last thing anyone needs is to look to start blaming anyone else. Some things are beyond puny man’s ability to control and this looks like one of them.

  140. hunter1909 says:

    €√¥£€^$: I live in Calgary, on Thursday I had a meeting with a contractor we work with quite often.

    This is a case of using the old chestnut “Avoid that man like the plague” guilt free.

  141. defmn says:

    Munny: Agreed.

    But I’ve always thought that about this season, and Smith would still be my starter Game 1.Swagger being a big part of that.

    I’m leaning that way as well but it is a coin toss that I think TC will decide.

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