A year ago on this blog, I published a NHL equivalency chart that identified the top forwards in the draft, and suggested that the Oilers badly needed at least one name from that list added to their own depth chart. How did it go? And will one be enough this year?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
NHL EQUIVALENCIES, FIRST ROUND FORWARDS 2019
These are 15 forwards who made my first round list a year ago and posted over 20 points NHLE. Some of the European forwards (like Vasili Podkolzin) didn’t make the list, but those names were clearly bona fide as well. Oilers drafted one name from the list, Lavoie, and could have had two but drafted Broberg instead. That decision looks better now than it did one year ago.
NHL EQUIVALENCIES, FIRST ROUND FORWARDS 2020
The best plan of action is to draft skill with every pick. In the case of forwards, NHLE is a quick and easy way to look at a large group of players to see who delivered the most offense. Again, some European kids aren’t on this list (notably Lucas Raymond and Rodion Amirov) but are clearly in the conversation.
The Oilers might be able to draft Jarvis from this list (the two Swedish wingers will go before him) but I think Quinn could be more likely. Could Holland trade into the early part of the second round and grab Mysak? LAK got Turcotte, Kaliyev and Fagemo one year ago. That’s the kind of draft Edmonton needs.
Of course, it doesn’t stop there. My 2020 draft list is a full boat of forwards who have delivered enough offensively to project as possible top-six players should they continue to develop. If you look at the Oilers current pipeline, there are very few names who qualify:
- Jesse Puljujarvi 35. 1
- Raphael Lavoie 34.7
- Tyler Benson 30.5
- Evan Bouchard 26.6
Signing Puljujarvi would give Edmonton three (all but Lavoie) candidates to make the Oilers. Should that happen, should all three emerge this season as NHL players, the pipeline would be Lavoie and McLeod, who looks a little shy offensively. After that, you’re waiting on names like Kirill Maksimov and Maxim Denezhkin. Cupboard’s bare.
Benson is in a very good spot today, I wonder if the trades and signings will have him in the same position when the dust settles. Currently, with Joakim Nygard gone for 4-6 weeks due to another surgery, the LW depth chart (signed) is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella. Things could change, RFA Andreas Athanasiou could be signed and Tyler Ennis might return. Jake DeBrusk would have a major impact on the depth chart.
I believe Benson would be applying for a third or fourth line job in Edmonton for 2020-21, meaning Neal, Gambardella and (when he returns) Joakim Nygard will be his competition. Benson isn’t applying for the same job DeBrusk would fill.
We’ve discussed DeBrusk at length (Frank was on the Lowdown Friday) as a possible option, I think the price would be Klefbom. So, if you’re dealing Klefbom, does that mean OEL is coming here? For the first-round pick and other items? Defense might be OEL-Larsson, Nurse-Bear, Jones-Bouchard. I think Matt Benning will be in a new town.
There’s just $3 million in cap room, but dealing Kris Russell and Matt Benning will free up about $6 million (and their replacements might cost less than $2 million). Money is tight, I wonder if Zack Kassian or Alex Chiasson find new homes.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
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Athanasiou is a skater and shooter. He fails my key conditions of being able to play a give and go game (so no help creating space for McDavid) and he is a weak defensive player.
Kassian is awful with McDavid, mainly because of inconsistenet effort and reliability, and because he is a weak defensive player. And he mostly reacts too slow to unfolding plays.
godot10,
I have to disagree. Athanasiou is a plus skater but didn’t work well with McD or I think he’d have a contract by now. That’s why Holland risked 2 2nd rounders for him. Kassian can skate and create space but he’s only on the first line due to not having any better options.
McDavid needs a winger who can score when he gets the puck to him. Laine fits that bill in spades.
And they did it with only 3 minutes of their captain.
They are clearly the gold standard that we need to aim for.
On another note, happy 48th anniversary of Canada’s victory from the ’72 series, one of my most memorable days from my childhood.
I guess we have different definitions of true #1.
Didn’t Maroon all but prove that being a plus skater is not a pre-requisite to succeed with McDavid?
I’m not so sure he had a good shot either – I don’t really recall him shooting from distance.
I believe that some of what you described is important – mostly, the ability to get the puck to McDavid with time and space and, essentially, to think the offensive game at a “smart” level. Think of Benson’s pass to Archie for his lone NHL point – that kind of pass is what will be dynamite with McDavid in the offensive zone.
Being good on the boards is the next main element.
I don’t think “backchecking” is important as I don’t think that’s a part of being a good defensive player.but more positioning and recognition in the defensive zone.
Or Moses to Brisebois’s Joshua.
Ten years ago.
Nope. What McDavid needs is two all-arouind wingers who are plus skaters. Who can guarentee the puck exits the Oilers zone and ends up on McDavid’s stick. Who can make a give-and-go pass. Who are excellent backcheckers, because they will have to do McDavid’s. (It has been five long years and McDavid is poor at checking.) If you wanna be McDavid’s winger you have to be plus defensively.
They just have to be decent shooters.
McDavid needs wingers who can create space for him and who can get him the puck in space and in flight.
So Bowen Byram is already a #1D in the NHL without ever playing a game.
Gotta be the whisky talking.
13.
Just in the Central Division.
So you’re saying he was in the whiskey again. It would explain some of his wildly erratic posts lately
???? Maybe seven years ago…..
An 11?!! Who’s going to pay him 11M per year? Dubas already blew his wad and Chiarelli isn’t a GM anymore.
Hughes isn’t as good overall as Edler. Maybe he gets there one day but it’s no guarantee.
I’m not arguing with you.
And your Dad could beat up my Dad, if that’s what you want to hear.
But how many of the dmen you just listed are true #1’s?
Clearly, Yzerman was the problem in Tampa.
I looked at one division, the Atlantic and Klefbom would be the 1LD on the Habs and the Wing, even after they acquired a soon to be 34 year old Marc Staal.
Dought is still better than any Oiler D.
Can Fowler is still better than any Oiler D…so is Hampus Lindholm.
OEL is easily better than Klefbom or Nurse
San Jose, while aging, still has Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic.
At the moment, Arizona has OEL and Chychrun
Calgary has Gio, who is aging but also has Hanafin, Andersson and Valimaki who are all 23 or under.
Important to remember that Hughes is only 20…can you imagine how good he’ll be when he’s 25?
Vegas has both Theodore and Nate Schmidt.
Of course, to be a real contender, the Oilers have to eventually meet or beat the teams in the Central Division.
Dallas…Heiskanen, Klingburg
Colorado…Makar, Johnson and soon Byram
St. Louis…Parayko, Pietrangelo?
Nashville…Josi, Ellis
Minnesota….Suter and Spurgeon
Winnipeg…Morrisey
It’s a murderer’s row.
It’s like taking a knife to a gun fight.
Laine is only signed for 1 more year. His next contract will start with an 11. Not a fit financially here.
For sure they would be top pairings on the canuckleheads for the next 10 yrs even at there age.
Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Class org, long build, got good players and kept them.
I’ll hang on to see McD and Drai get their Stamkos moments… the cup looks good in E-town.
Guessing it was a large house cat
He was right about that couger being awesome…?
Sounds good but no way we fit that with our CAP situation
Staal is a 3rd pairing D at the twilight of his career
Are you right about anything?
Well Dallas is at 43% tonight. Can’t find a site that shows the stats just for the playoffs.
Thanks OP.
Well that brings up an interesting question. How many true #1’s are there?
LA. Doughty. Is he still elite or is he in decline?
Anaheim. Do they have one?
SJ. Karlsson. See Doughty above.
Arizona. OEL. See Doughty above.
Calgary. Gio. See Doughty above.
Vegas. Theodore.
Vancouver. Hughes. Definitely a #1 with the puck on his stick and in the ozone. Was exposed in his own end in the playoffs a little. He may struggle to defend down low against bigger forwards.
That’s the Oilers division. I suspect the other divisions would have a similar sampling.
No you didn’t.
Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.
He’s better than Klefbom.
I think most will agree McDavid needs a winger that is a pure shooter…badly.
He doesn’t have to be overly fast or good at passing/playmaking, but when he gets fed a gross saucy from McD, the puck is in the back of the net 90% (or higher) of the time. These players are hard to find and even harder to keep. Enter Winnipeg…
We have an abundance of D-men and Laine is available for trade. He played with Pool in WJs and they lit it up together. There’s a fit there…
If I were Holland I would be trading (Insert any Oiler D-man name here) + 1st rounder for Laine. My preference would be Larsson, but it would probably need to be Klef/Nurse.
Is the 1st rounder too much (too little) to get Laine? Not sure about that, but as much as we love our Oilers, our “top” dmen aren’t exactly top of the crop. So I think the 1st pushes the needle for Wpg. Maybe we can get a couple picks back depending who the dman traded is, but why not aim for Laine? We don’t need to be aiming at other team’s secondary players (Ehlers) during this once-in-a-lifetime offseason! Laine is the guy to aim for…he’s the modern day Brett Hull…lazy but can SHOOT the puck. And who knows, maybe Laine gets Pool going again and then we have two VERY good lines in a very short period of time.
Yes, all very wishful thinking, I know…
But when was the last time you heard about this many players available? And this many talented players because of cap constraints? It’s been a while.
I am a firm believer that one good/smart trade for our Oilers and we can get a lot better almost instantly. Wpg wants what we have (in abundance)….and has made it public that what we sorely lack (top winger)…is available right now via trade. Go get Laine.
P.S. I dont like trading the 1st as I think the top 20 this year will yield very good players. So I ask, what trade gets Laine from Wpg or is there a better target available this offseason for our needs?
46.7% coming in to tonight.
and I only looked at one division – came up with two locks.
Klefbom would undoubtably be 1LD on the Habs.
I agree on Haas – I’ve also questioned if he can produce enough offence to be 3C, and reference “can he provide 30 points”, but have been shown that production shouldn’t be a requirement for a 3C. I do think that, with a year in the NHL behind him, he will be more comfortable with the size and speed of the players (and the game) and may be able to produce a bit more (and, presumably, he’s worked on strength).
As far as being on his ass – ya, that happens alot, however, if he’s drawing PPs……..
I have no idea if he’ll work well with AA and JP but I wouldn’t mind seeing Haas given a chance at 3C – he’s got various of the other skills we want to see – quick, tenacious, causes turnovers, draws PIMs, very good defensively and PK (presumably on the PK as he was a plus PK in Europe, from accounts and the team will need to replace Sheahan’s minutes – Haas and Kailer).
Yep.
I think the potential is there for Broberg.
But lots of things can go awry on the way to Grandma’s house.
In the meantime, the teams the Oilers would have to surpass to be serious contenders, all have a legit #1D.
Anybody know what Dallas’s Corsi has been in the playoffs so far? I’d put the over/under at 45%, maybe less. Never seen a team go so far in the playoffs with possession numbers this bad.
Tampa might not allow 10 shots on net tonight. Only a massive collapse would let Dallas back in the game. Can they celebrate outside the bubble tonight.? Maybe the beer & romantic scenery will be better…?
Wasn’t talking about prospects but if you want to include them that’s fine.
I doubt Bouchard becomes a true #1, but I think Broberg has potential. Too soon to tell.
Fair enough.
But that speaks volumes.
Actually, Nurse, Bouchard and Broberg were all top 10 picks.
And, yet, here we are.
Harpers Hair,
Nope. I was just taking an opportunity to contest the narrative that Klefbom is our best Dman as I believe that’s false.
A geriatric Shea Weber and Jeff Petry would steal his lunch money.
If all you have left is a D from an historically bad team, that ain’t much.
Would you rank Nurse as one of the top 31 D in the league?
I wouldn’t .
Well in fairness, they’ve only spent one top 10 on a dman.
Not as sad as being in league for 50 years without a single cup
That was me.
I like Haas. Spends too much time on his ass, and I don’t know how much offense he will provide, but he’s a very good skater and is very responsible defensively. He always seems to be on the right side of the puck.
He’s the perfect center for a guy like AA, who seems to be able to create offense on his own, but will never be mistaken for a checking winger.
Then you add another big, fast winger like JP. He’s also solid defensively, and it might free him up offensively. Especially if he becomes the go to guy on the line.
Instead of blowing your brains out looking for the perfect 3rd line center, why not just put a defensive conscience between 2 big, skilled wingers?
Top paring – not #1D – not the same.
Detroit and Montreal in the Atlantic.
Refer to my comment after.
Nurse is better.
digger50,
Since one of our bottom-6 lines will likely include Neal, fair to say we have to trust the other of the two lines with tougher minutes. As such, I look for a C who has done that and doesn’t cost the world: J Larsson.
Then I look at swapping Russell for Grabner and then toss a physical presence on the RW. Maybe that’s Archibald, maybe it’s Chiasson, maybe it’s a triumphant return of Pitlick.
Maybe it’s also wise to consider replicating the skillsets of the linemates that Larsson saw his greatest success with in Girgs and Okposo. Neither are fleet of foot, both bring physicality and both have some size to their game.
Looking at something along the lines of:
Grabner-Larsson-Archibald
With Chiasson traded and Nygard as backup for Grabner.