In 2011, along with the usual slow boats and relatives, the Edmonton Oilers pursued genuine skill. Almost a decade later, three of the nine picks made by the team remain active NHL players. In 2020, Edmonton used all of its picks on skill. Can we expect 604 games (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), 434 games (Tobias Rieder) and 378 games (Oscar Klefbom) from three 2020 picks when we arrive in 2029?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: The Oilers and the Calder Trophy: 5 rookies, 1 strong contender
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The results
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: Goals against
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The Goals
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers defensive prospects are impressive overseas, but what comes next?
- Lowetide: Oilers pick up an intriguing addition in free agent Dominik Kahun
- Lowetide: How close is Ryan McLeod to an Oilers roster spot?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft oversees a spike in Oilers prospect development
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ organizational depth chart: Where does Edmonton stand today?
- Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov’s KHL impact and what it means to the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers extend Kris Russell, solve expansion issue
- Lowetide: Can Kyle Turris centre an outscoring No. 3 line in Edmonton?
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s skills and how Oilers coach Dave Tippett will deploy him
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers unlock James Neal’s scoring potential at five on five?
- Lowetide: Why is Ilya Konovalov no longer starting in the KHL?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
2011 NUMBERS
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (WHL) 69 games, 31-75-106 (1.54)
- Oscar Klefbom (SHL) 23 games, 1-1-2
- David Musil (WHL) 62 games, 6-19-25
- Travis Ewanyk (WHL) 72 games, 16-11-27 (.38)
- Dillon Simpson (NCAA) 30 games, 2-8-10
- Tobias Rieder (OHL) 65 games, 23-26-49 (.75)
- Martin Gernat (Czech Jr) 28 games, 3-15-18
Oilers drafted Travis Ewanyk at No. 74 overall and everyone gets mad at Ewanyk. That’s on the scouting department for those playing along at home. This is a nice draft for Edmonton, one of the best this century. Of course, two first round selections helped.
2020 NUMBERS
- LC Dylan Holloway 35 games, 8-9-17 (NCAA)
- LW Carter Savoie 54 games, 53-46-99 (AJHL)
- RW Tyler Tullio 62 games, 27-39-66 (OHL)
- LW Maxim Berezhkin 51 games, 25-29-54 (MHL)
- RW Filip Engarad 25 games, 8-7-15 (NCAA)
- LW Jeremias Lindewall 39 games, 11-17-28 (SuperElite Jr)
I don’t know enough about Holloway, beyond he didn’t score like Luke Kunin. Holloway did score well at the end of the Big-10 season (5-4-9 in last 10 games), that’s not a ringer but it’s a leaner. I’ve mentioned this before but Holloway was in the AJHL a year ago and it’s interesting to compare his numbers then to Savoie this year:
- Savoie at 17 years & 250 days old Oct. 1, 2019: 54 games, 53-46-99 (1.83 pts-game)
- Holloway at 17 years & 18 days old Oct. 1, 2018: 53 games, 40-48-88 (1.66 pts-game)
They’re close offensively based on math. Savoie’s NHLE is 22.5 and Holloway is 20.4. You never know with tier-2 prospects, Tyson Jost hasn’t spiked offensively yet and he was drafted in 2016. I’m impatient for the NCAA season to begin, last I heard Holloway would be in action November 13 weekend.
THE GALES OF NOVEMBER REMEMBERED
In the darkest days of this blog, Gordon Lightfoot’s classic “Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” offered words and phrases to fit the mood. I know “gales of November” and “Lake Huron rolls, Superior Sings” are not hockey phrases any more than the Donner party represents a failed Oilers season, but the despair and the simple words that describe 29 tortured deaths somehow met the moment with clarity. The unfortunate inspiration for Lightfoot’s classic sunk 45 years ago today (my thanks to Bruce McCurdy for the reminder) and the song still rings as true as that whale of a guitar riff that guides the epic piece to its depths and rises again.
The wildest homage to Lightfoot’s classic is this: It. was. a. hit. single! No. 1! Right in the middle of the peak of Top 40 radio, where songs were three minutes long and played hourly, Lightfoot stormed the control room with majesty that docked only after 6 minutes and 32 emotional seconds. It remains without equal as a musical chronicle in (basically) real time: A year after the tragedy, Lightfoot’s song owned the radio.
It avoids maudlin, limits poetic license, eludes description—beyond achieving greatness. Inspiration from the headlines that immortalizes those lost souls forever. It might be the finest song ever written by a Canadian. I cannot think of its equal.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning we hit the ground running with lots of good news, TSN1260. Bob Weeks, Senior Reporter and Golf Analyst for TSN, joins us at 10:20 to talk about the Masters. At 11, Kaitlyn McGrath at The Athletic talks about the Blue Jays and a possibly huge offseason. We’ll also chat NBA and some interesting comments from Steve Yzerman of the Detroit Red Wings about the year to come in the NHL. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s going to be a great day!
A quick, delayed, update on Raphael Lavoie. Seems the cut wasn’t all that bad, which is also what the first reports suggested, and from what I understand he’s traveling with the team for their away game against Modo(Jeremias Lindewall’s team). From what I could gather the skate cut his lip which is probably why he went to the hospital to get stitched up, the team doc might not have been comfortable with suturs in the lip since if you mess up matching the transition between the red of the lip and the skin the scar can end up pretty ugly.
I do find it a bit odd that someone who decides to be the team doc for a hockey team isn’t more comfortable with suturs but I don’t know the whole picture and there’s also this idea amongst some that only ENT and plastic surgeons should be suturing lips. Anyway Lavoie seems to be fine and that’s what’s most important.
Wow no love for “My Way” by Paul Anka. Goes to show there are some damn good Canadian tunes.
I guess he didn’t even write it – always thought he did.
anka did write it
How about the underrated April Wine with Fast Train.
My choice for “Canadian” song would be “ Northwest Passage” by Stan Rogers
All good suggestions. I’d throw Joni’s “A Case of You” into the mix. Hell, she even draws a map of Canada in the song!
Best Canadian song: “Keep on Rockin’ in the Free World’ by Neil Young.
Best song by a band from Edmonton, for those old enough to remember: “Janie You’re Wrong” by the Models.
Seconded.
Although ‘Wheat Kings’ is modern quintessential
Best song out of Edmonton Bearfoot’s “Passing Time”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE-Ns9Ctmr8&ab_channel=NGamble
I have mentioned many times over the last few months that the players believe their agreement with the NHL is that they get 100% comp (of course, minus the escrow and 10% holdback) no matter how many games are played. No pro rating of salaries to take in to account less than 82 games.
Obviously this can be re-negotiated and I just anticipated that the players would have to give on this as I would presume the existing agreement was made on a presumption (not condition) that there would be more fans in that stands that what we will see.
With that said, as per Friedman, the players are digging in on this right now and aren’t moving off 100% gross comp even with a shortened season
Even with pro-rated salaries, given the limited number of fans through the year (if any), I think the owners may be operating knowing they will take a loss but doing so in order to ensure they vest the last year of the NBC TV contract so that it doesn’t roll over and the new TV deal can provide a big influx of cash starting in 2021/22.
Now, if they play 48-60 games and the players gross isn’t pro-rated in addition to the fan issue, that may be a bit much for the owners…..
I anticipate the players will move off this.
With Fehr heading the PA and all of his experience there should have been no ambiguity when they negotiated the extension.
I know there was a lot on the table but doesn’t this strike you as a part of the agreement that should have received a fair amount of consideration at the time?
I believe what the players are relying on is that there is nothing in the CBA or the MOU for its extension that provide any mechanism for pro-rating of salaries.
The whole point of deal was players got short term cover in return for a longer deal. T
No season was never an option for the NHL. They do want to fulfill the TV contracts and set up for the next deals when the prospect of full stands energize their biz
I think the talk of the deal being too generous for a shorter season is just some pressure for the players to be flexible on all of the soft points to be settled. I think this will all be wrapped up this month.
Won’t the players have to pay it back anyway with escrow.
looks like a vaccine will be ready with fans in stands by the following season even if not 100% capacity yet.
if I’m a player with a low one year contract I’d rather pay 50% of my one year contract than drag out over several years of my next contract.
The players will have 28% deducted off their gross pay – 18% escrow (which they won’t get back given they are so far in he hole) and the 10% holdback which they will get back in a few years.
The question is if what that 28% will be deducted from – their contracted 100% gross or a reduction in that 100% gross pro rated from the number of games played.
—————
There may be normally for the on-ice product in 2021/22 – maybe but the cap won’t be going above $82.5M for many years – probably 3-4 if not more. In order for the cap to go above $82.5M, HRR needs to get back up to $4.8B (which could happen within a few years) AND the Escrow Balance will need to be paid back.
That Escrow Balance is likely huge given the reduction in revenues this past season and it likely goes up, not down, next season even with pro-rated salaries let alone if the players get “paid in full” for less games – the cap is artificially inflated and the owners will probably lose money next year without even close to normal attendance, gate and related revenue.
There may well be a vaccine but there will not be an effective one. We’ve had the flu vaccine for 37 years and it hasn’t reduced flu incidence.
I am FAR from an expert or even knowledgable on this but isn’t that due to influenza being highly mutative and there being numerous new strains of it yearly?
The cornavirus is not new – there are many strains of the virus, however, the one that causes Covid-19 is new but is not highly mutative?
I think that’s right but I could be totally off-base – as I said, my knowledge is limited.
My reading shows that there are already variations in different parts of the world and this is year one. We will see. Obviously we all hope for the best.
Great post (although I only quoted a portion) and I agree with the overall premise. I anticipate he will indeed to given true top 6 usage based off of opportunity and merit.
What he did in the 2nd half of the season was impressive and, from watching/reading Wheeler’s piece, it was even more impressive given he was an 18 year old who could physically dominate players 3-4 years older. Holloway seems to have the Drai type work ethic and I anticipate he has worked hard this off-season and his skill-set a year older and stronger and used to the NCAA could/should shine.
I also think there is something to say for the fact that he was a top draft pick and Granato will take some price in developing him in to a top 6 NHL player.
I sure hope he gets enough games in this season – damn 5-week World Juniors camp (as much as I want him on that team, I don’t want him gone for 7 weeks from his club and head coach).
I have this kid at 65-35 he blossoms into the smooth skating power forward that most of us thought Jesse would be. If this kid knocks it out of the park this year we could see him sooner than later.
When Khaira is healthy and confident, he is a very strong transporter of the puck – he carries the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone with power and authority. I believe injuries slowed him down over the last few years and, last year, he made some mistakes carrying the puck, own-zone turnovers, that cratered his confidence (and likely got him a stern talking to) – he never recovered.
He may be competing nightly with the likes of Haas for a lineup spot (maybe with the likes of Chiasson or even Archie and Neal as well – could see a rotation in the bottom part of the lineup and maybe some load management for a guy like Neal).
As far as a “taxi squad” – well, for one I do see the AHL playing (target start date of Feb 4). About 2/3 of the teams are owned by their NHL affiliates and, while it will add to the financial strain of the owners, they will want their prospects playing a developing. There may be some of the independently owned teams that have to disperse their players but I think there will be an AHL season.
If there is a “taxi-squad”, I don’t think the coach will have unfettered access to those on the taxi-squad like a true expanded roster. Those players will essentially be assigned to the AHL for cap and waiver type purposes but travelling with the team and practicing with the team in order to be in game shape for “call-up” – at least that’s how I see it.
For example, if Benson is on the taxi squad, Holland would need to “re-assign” someone in order to get him in the lineup – waivers, etc. would apply if its Khaira, Chiasson, Neal, etc..
At least how I anticipate it would work – could totally be wrong
Thanks for the post. You have a great knack of being informative while staying upbeat about our team. The Oilers should hire you in public relations.
He’s a named parter in a national law firm. His hourly billable rate must be obscene.
Better for Katz to let OP keep working for free and spend his money on the players.
Partner, yes, named, nope. That doesn’t quite happen the way its portrayed on Suits. In fact, nothing about corporate law happens with any resemblance to anything that happens on that show.
We do do some work for the Katz Group of Companies.
Hehe. In my experience nothing on TV resembles the way it really is. 😉
Fair enough but that show, as much as I enjoyed the first few seasons, is the most asurd representation of a corporate law firm and everything about it. What irks me is that so many seem to think that it represents – seriously, people think that it does.
Yup, that’s right, I spend most of my days crashing people’s lunches, calling them pieces of shit and blackmailing them……
It could be worse. You could have wasted your life collecting degrees in political philosophy and then working with and for politicians only to find out that all you need to do to be an expert on the subject is to watch CNN or CBC. 😉
Thanks buddy.
Greetings,
This article has been torture for me because the nexus of the music talk and the title got me thinking that there was some famous song with the title Holloway Road. An hour of frustration and I realized that the song is “Holloway Jail” by the Kinks!!!
Let’s hope that the Oiler’s prospect Holloway doesn’t land there… for many reasons.
The Hockey Song – Tom Connors. Jeez.
I guess I am the only one here who thought this but as the early descriptions started to arrive after the Oilers chose Holloway the comparison I couldn’t get out of my mind was Bob Gainey.
He didn’t score in junior (or the NHL) like a lot of others but 1160 games over 16 seasons later he proved to be worth that first rounder.
Looking forward to watching Holloway make his way to the Oilers.
I think he’ll have a little more offence. draft -1 numbers in the A were pretty strong. It will be fun to watch him progress. Not that it would be a terrible thing to have a Bob Gainey on the team for 15 years or so! 🙂
Yeah, I watched some highlight video and he looks more skilled bu the narrative on draft day sure reminded me of Gainey.
I’m not from Ontario but Neil Young’s ‘Helpless’ has to be on any top 10 list.
No love for Barrett’s Privateers? I consider that a quintessential Canadian tune, although it’s not as relevant outside of the Maritimes.
Ladies/Fellas – This Canadian song argument is an unwinnable one; but I’m still going to cast a vote for “Blackie and the Rodeo King” by Willie P. Bennett.
Sorry guys.
Best Canadian song ever is:
Four Strong Winds — Ian Tyson.
Anybody who suggests otherwise is wrong. The song is pretty much perfection.
Not Running Back to Saskatoon?
Other than Leonard Cohen, LT, I’d probably agree with Wreck being the #1.
Either that or something by Drake.
Bettman confirms today they that are looking at the hybrid-hub with a reduced schedule:
Per TSN:
“You’ll play for 10 to 12 days,” Bettman explained during the conference. “You’ll play a bunch of games without travelling. You’ll go back, go home for a week, be with your family. We’ll have our testing protocols and all the other things you need.
Scott Darling agrees to a PTO with Florida.
Posted because, well, with the new about the BoG being updated on Thursday and the league still looking at early January, maybe this “signing” isn’t as premature as it seems……
Michigan will not be releasing Owen Power to the Team Canada camp.
I don’t anticipate the same will happen with Holloway but you never know – Granato did expressly state he wishes that they could keep their developing star until early December like the initial plan.
EDIT: The team confirmed that they will release the player but simply not in mid-November. Seems Mel Pearson is of the same view as Tony Granato (although I don’t think Granato will put the kybosh on the release even though he’s not happy about it).
A shortened season is all but a foregone conclusion at this point.
Your point is solid, a shortened season may be better for the owners (assuming the players move off their “100% comp even if only 1 game is played – which they will have to).
They probably lose money with no gate and gate related revenue but not playing for the year is not an option for the NHL – they need the last year of their deal with NBC to vest so that they can get the massive financial influx of a new deal. At the same time, playing without fans is a money loser. They may start with no fans but will very much hope to be able to play in from of some fans, and more and more fans, as the season goes on.
Bruce Garrioch
Per @SunGarrioch
Per Bruce Garrioch:
Deputy commissioner Bill Daly sent a memo to the 31 NHL teams today saying negotiations have been continuing with the NHLPA and the league is hoping it will be able to make a recommendation to the governors Thursday. Daly wrote “the objective remains to start as early as Jan. 1.”
Daly added in the memo the NHL is hoping to complete the schedule before the end of April and get back on a regular schedule for 2021-21. Didn’t say how many games would be played. The league also sent out a survey asking about local conditions and restrictions. #NHL
That’s pretty interesting. I’m reading between the lines here, but if we’re looking at completing the schedule before the end of April, even with a January 1st start, we’re probably looking at an abridged season.
That’s fine in my book. Owners might be against it, but if we have no fans in buildings anyway there’s surely less of an argument to push for an 82 game season like regular isn’t there?
A key element in this will be satisfying terms of contracts with television providers.
I’ve heard many of these contracts contain clauses outlining the minimum number of games played.
Me too – absolutely. In fact, I’m not 100% certain I wouldn’t prefer him just to stay in Wisconsin in any event (although I won’t deny how great an experience the tourney would be for him and I’ll be excited for him if he makes it).
The thing is, we just don’t know if he’ll be getting a roster spot – I think he has a good chance but clearly a bubble guy right now. He very well could attend the 5-week camp and then get cut. He very well could make it. If we knew he was getting cut then I’d prefer him not to go but I can’t predict the future. If the likes of Dach and some other NHL ready players weren’t available, we’d have a bit more surety on his roster spot.
Eddie Pasquale did give up 2 goals on only 25 shots in a 7-2 win – is that enough for Konovalov to get a start next game?
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Berezkin was a scratch for Lokomotiv (as he often is).
———–
Samorukov with a 3rd period assist on the tying goal as CKSA Moscow is tied at 3 in the third.
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Rasanen with a 1st period goal as KalPa is tied at 3 in the third.
————
Do you think Eddie Pasquale is going to get an NHL contract out of this?
He was .930 in 46 games last year in the KHL. This year he’s .960 in 11 games.
Though he is turning 30 this month…
Recall that .930 is not particularly remarkable for the KHL. He was in a 4 way tie for 12 in the league last year (>10GP).
If he can stay well above that this season he could get a backup or 3rd string contract. Or not.
Yeah, I hadn’t looked recently. I knew .930 wasn’t what it was for the NHL, for example, but it’s still a little more pedestrian than I had recalled. I thought Francouz had a .937. Francouz actually had .953 and .946 seasons before Colorado signed him.
Still Pasquale is on quite a run so far.
I thought he was actually older than that.
He might – Koskinen was older when he came back to North America.
Pasquale does have a solid track record in the AHL and sometimes goalies blossom in their late 20s/early 30s.
I would think any sort of return to North America would start as an “Anton Forsberg” type deal, a 3G.
.937 in the KHL? I had the right number, but the wrong player.
That was Koskinen’s last season in the KHL.
.939, .921, .927, .915, .916, and .937.
Well damn. THOSE are pedestrian KHL numbers.
I do think we should allow his playoff numbers into the equation (.928, .936, .949, .938, .935, in 10, 22, 15, 15, 15 games) but still not terribly impressive overall.
When comparing Savoie to Holloway, its interest to look at their offensive numbers in their 17 year old seasons. Of course, the numbers don’t show a few other attributes that have provided the seperation between the two.
Things like Holloway’s size and speed and ability and willingness to use that size and be very aggressive in all zones – an engaged battler that consistently comes out with the puck. Even showed the ability to physically dominate older players in college as a teenage rookie. Holloway also has that two-way accumen and, from accounts, that incredible work ethic where he doesn’t take a shift off.
We are likely three years from the potential but, after reading and watching Wheeler’s article and generally learning about the player, I think Holloway has almost the perfect skill-set to be McDavid’s left winger. Fast, wins battles (i.e. gets the puck), smart and skilled enough to do the right thing with the puck once received, defensive conscious of the line, good shot, big and aggressive, etc.
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I’m excited for Wisconsin to play a few games this weekend. I’ll find a way to watch.
I’m actually disappointed that he’ll have to leave the team for at least 5 weeks (he may not make the World Junior team but he won’t be an early cut).
If hes not getting a roster spot Id almost rather he stayed at Wisconsin. Thats as long as they are consistently playing games though.
KHL DIARIES (@vorkywh24) Tweeted:
Russian NT U20 will play two exhibition games against Slovakia & Canada before the 2021 #IIHF @iihf_wjc in Edmonton. Both games in Canada. Russian camp should start on Nov 28. See @darina_vymetali @robertzaruba #wordljuniors #wjc #hockeycanada
https://twitter.com/vorkywh24/status/1326220842230042631?s=20
With the recent Athletic post on Calder trophy requiring talent AND opportunity, I think its a good theme to go with when looking at Holloway’s recent season. Nearly every other comparable for College seasons is POST draft, the fact Holloway did it in his draft season should be highlighted as a strength not a detriment. He had to play Center behind Turcotte and 22 YO Ty Pelton Byce but still forced his way in at the end of the season.
There have been no comments about Caufield or Turcottes scoring numbers and they are high 1st round 2019 draft picks. TOI would be useful but I couldnt find any for NCAA.
Total Scoring:
Caufield: 19-17-36 in 36 1.00 PPG
Turcotte: 9-17-26 in 29 0.90 PPG
Holloway: 8-9-17 in 35 0.49 PPG
Total Scoring Minus Power Play:
Caufield: 12-10-22 in 36 0.61 PPG
Turcotte: 5-8-13 in 29 0.45 PPG
Holloway: 7-6-13 in 35 0.37 PPG
If Holloway gets true top 6 usage and PP1 (opportunity) he is going to pop this season. I firmly believe the 9 points in 10 games is much closer to the real Holloway than the 8 in 25.
Source: http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/filters20.php?target=WIS&conf=on&nonconf=on&playoff=on&ncaa=on&site=all&wins=on&losses=on&ties=on&otgames=all&start=34&end=189&sun=on&mon=on&tue=on&wed=on&thu=on&fri=on&sat=on&limitx=none&limitn=1&limitt=indiv&p1=on&p2=on&p3=on&ot=on&full=on&even=on&pp=on&sh=on&lead=on&tied=on&trail=on&time1=on&time2=on&time3=on&time4=on&time5=on&time6=on&time7=on&time8=on&for=on&def=on&goal=on&fr=on&so=on&jr=on&sr=on&drafted=on&eligible=on&free=on&stats=scoring&sort=pts
Turcotte and Caufield are a little older (7 and 9 months respectively) but are smaller, especially Caufield at 5-7 / 162. Takes time for some bigger young men to mature physically. Holloway will take off this year and hopefully makes the WJC team and can represent Canada.
Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah may be the most covered song in history.
Patsy Gallants from new york to la was epic!!
….and The Guess Who’s American Women one of the most all time played on American radio..The Band as best Canadian band by a metric mile if I were to answer @ Boho
LT notes, regarding WotEF: “It might be the finest song ever written by a Canadian. I cannot think of its equal.”
It’s bad manners to openly disagree with one’s host, so more obliquely: can we count The Band as Canadian? I know, I know, Levon Helm &etc., but how about some love for The Weight?
Here’s a recent version with some famous types:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph1GU1qQ1zQ
A comparison for the song is ‘Ohio’ written by Canadian Neil Young after the Kent State shootings. Another generational song written about real-world events without any glitz, glam or over-production. Interesting that both songs are about USA events.
Holloway has the boots, now we need to see if he will do what is required to make the NHL. Savoie (22.5 NHLe) and Tollio (28.2 NHLe) have skill, but are they Ty Rattie or something more? All Oiler prospects should be required to spend time speaking with Ethan Bear about what it takes – mentally and physically.
Really good draft given the picks available. Holland / Wright zero in a first round selection, do not get swayed by all the noise and make the pick. It shows in the Broberg and Holloway picks. We wait.
She sank in Canadian waters, and endured the damage that sank her in Canadian waters.
American boat sailing from an American to another American port.
Canadian history is often described as American history from a Canadian perspective, also.
This is an interesting post in a few ways… first, the The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, great song…
The other is NHL Games Played. I was thinking about this after the Benson post… LT says he expects 200 NHL games from him. And now LT says “Can we expect 604 games (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), 434 games (Tobias Rieder) and 378 games (Oscar Klefbom) from three 2020 picks when we arrive in 2029?”
It’s perfect timing as I was thinking about this just last night. I’m sure it’s been discussed several times but what are the values of NHL games played? Specifically is Benson’s projected 200 games “met the mark”. If so, is Rieder’s 400 games considered quality? What is RNH at 600+ games, great player? 800 exceptional? 1000 Elite? 1200+ HHOF caliber?
A quick search shows Jujhar Khaira is at 218… sadly if it wasn’t for the PK I believe he wouldn’t be playing on the current roster. Did he “meet the mark”? Is that all, or does he get to Rieder’s equivalent?
Neal has 821, Gagner 844, are these “exceptional” careers? Ryan Smyth had 1270 games.
It’s probably harder for today’s defenseman with this “metric” if you will.
Kris Russel has 846. Larsson 547. Mike Green 880. Paul Coffey 1409.
And at first, I would have thought not applicable with goalies games played numbers. Nope, Martin Brodeur 1266. Mike Smith 610, Grant Fuhr 868
I do know, looking at this list, RNH could do some serious damage on the most games played in Oilers silks with another contract:
http://oilers.ice.nhl.com/club/teamstatsleaders.htm?fetchKey=00002EDMAAHAll&sort=gamesPlayed&viewName=careerLeadersForFranchise
Personally, I’m routing for him. Is he Elite, and can he take the #2 spot?
For a third round pick out of the BCHL, Khaira has covered the bet on draft day.
And — to me, at least — players aren’t judged elite or exceptional based solely on the number of games played, rather on how they actually played the games.
I agree, that’s why my actual question was “what are the values of NHL games played?”. 500 games for a player has value to team, certainly more than 200.
I just took a stab at a “term” for each in 200 game increments. I could have easily used fruits, vegetables, baseball analogies (i.e: home run for Smyth), Flintstones characters or any other “terms”. I don’t think I was that off base with the terms, but perhaps others don’t see a 400 game career that different than a 600 or 700 game career. That’s what I was hoping for feedback on, regardless of the term used.
I guess my point is, regardless of draft pedigree, as some are busts (i.e.: Travis Ewanyk), what truly indicates the scouts, and later, management got it right and found a successful/useful player? Even Nail Yakupov played 350 games. I know LT has mentioned 100 and 200 games in the past, most recently with Benson for a line in the sand.
I’ve also watching been watching old Oilers games recently… when management gives up on skill or useful players too early it’s maddening. Gretzky is the highlight of the group, how about Stoll or Eberle. I’m sure the list is huge. If Matt Benning plays 500 games did management miss the mark? If Holloway gets 350 games in will you be upset or consider that a successful career?
I think, simply put, the value of x games played by a player is the return on investment (drafting/development) the organization puts into the individual in the years prior to their professional career.
Yak at 350 games is a bust, because he went 1OV. JJ carving out a PK role and career on the fourth line is a solid depth pick.
Guys like Rieder and Nash playing for other teams before even signing with EDM is maddening but not nearly as big of a waste of draft and development resources as letting Ebs or Satan go early (and for next to nothing) when you consider the amount of time and resources the team spent developing them as capital other teams covet.
Truth be told, in the years following the initial trade, I could opine that Strome outperformed Eberle even without taking in to account contract. As far as value for cap dollar, 100% Strome out-valued Eberle.
To your point though, I agree, a third round pick even playing an NHL game for the org covers the bet – even earning an ELC probably covers the bet as well.
If Khaira played with that edge and confidence that he seems to have for 15-20 games a year where he opens up the ice for his line mates and drives to the net is a well sought after skill in this league. I think Tippett should rotate Khaira every second game or depending who were playing keep him healthy fresh and hungry. With the condensed schedule and Possibly a taxi squad I can see Tippett rotating 2 or even 3 different players every game.
Another cool thing about that song is that they nailed it the first time they played it together in the studio. That’s the version on the record. They couldn’t improve on it. The first try was perfect. This is from a documentary on Lightfoot that aired a while ago.
Why do so many sad things have to happen in November?
…Edmund Fitzgerald
…Remembrance day
…First snowfall
…Oilers out of playoffs…not this year baby…?
First snowfall in November? In Alberta?
I remember the ’11 draft well. Excited to see RNH putting on Oiler silks, thrilled with the Penner trade that netted the extra 1st rounder, but it wasn’t the Ewanyk pick that irritated me, it was Musil. The first pick of the second round. While it was a shame Rakell was snatched by Anaheim on day 1, there were the 2 Gibson goalies and Saad, Jenner, and a load of other high-skill players available. We were sold that Musil was a safe pick and was a great bet for 2nd/3rd pairing NHL work for 15 years.
Full disclosure… I wanted Victor Rask, so take that for what it’s worth.
Hindsight is genius, always, but taking the “sure thing” over talent is fool’s gold.
Missing out on Boone Jenner still pisses me off.
That’s who I was screaming at the T.V for as well. How could our scouts be so terrible for so long. In saying that they sure did get it right selecting lazy slow skating Leon over push up boy down south. If Calgary had Leon they would be a bonafide Stanley cup contender.
Pull up boy….
Re Calder trophy
Would Lagesson playing second pairing left side with Larsson on an Oiler team winning the Pacific division be enough to get him some votes for the Calder?
Without the point total, no. It isn’t sexy enough. Now if he goes 5-20-25 in a 60 game season, then he definitely gets a few nods.
Bear playing first line and putting up points in his rookie season wasn’t even close to enough. So, no.
He did get some votes though – not first place votes, but votes.
I opened this line of thought to see if what I have began to believe is true and that is quite simply value of player equals points scored. We should change the name of a defence man to a back liner as it seems by valuation only the offence holds importance. The pay scale for D seems to follow this line of thought with a very few outliers. The only exception being a number one D that is expected to both score points and defend. There is small hope for a defensive D to win a Norris trophy. Given the above what should be the average overall cap hit for a teams D. The average seems to run around 26 million. Note did not do the math but intend to and post same.
While they will never be considered for the Norris (kind of your point), on the pay scale point, there are quite a few primarily defensive d-men that are paid handomely – the Oilers have had two of them on long term contracts with $4M cap hits for the last number of years (Rusty and Larsson).
After doing the math the team average for D Corp is 21m with a high of 31 million and low of 17 million all figures were rounded to nearest million. Highest paid D is LA Kings Doughty at 11 million. If your kid and or grandkid wants to be an NHL player centre is the position that pays the best. Nine teams cap hit were under 20 million for their D with Winnipeg having the lowest cap hit for D at just over 17 million. Will do this exercise again after teams are set for the season.