The Oilers organization at this time has a crazy talent distribution. The best player in the game, another likely inside the top-10 overall, then names like Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with enough value to be “name” players. After that, several miles of role players and then a small group of talented youngsters (Evan Bouchard, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Carter Savoie) finding their way.
We used to talk on this blog about drafting high being the only way to get impact players. Now, we look longingly at the Moreau-Marchant-Grier line and wonder where they come from. The Edmonton Oilers have 32 names on the 50-man locked in, and are going to add a bunch of names in the next few weeks. What will it look like?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: What did the Oilers sacrifice in sending Caleb Jones to Chicago in the Duncan Keith trade?
- New Jonathan Willis: Duncan Keith, by the numbers
- New DNB: How Ken Holland’s overpay for Duncan Keith limits the Oilers’ offseason options
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for the Oilers to target this offseason
- Jonathan Willis: Yes or no? Have your say on 10 hypothetical Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Is this the year the Oilers find a world-class agitator in the draft?
- Lowetide: Which draft prospects will be available when the Oilers pick at No. 19?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
- DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
CURRENT 50-MAN (33)
- Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
- Left Defense (8): Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, Kris Russell, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Oscar Klefbom (inj)
- Right Defense (5): Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
- Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Tim Soderlund, Seth Griffith
- Left Wing (6): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Devin Shore, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Ostap Safin
- Right Wing (5): Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris, Josh Archibald, Kirill Maksimov
I included Klefbom because Puck Pedia told me he counts (Hart is a good man) and that does impact things a little. Now, here are the RFA’s, with the players who I believe will be signed in red:
- Goalies: Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells
- Left Defense: Theodor Lennstrom
- Right Defense:
- Center: Jujhar Khaira
- Left Wing: Dominik Kahun, Tyler Benson
- Right Wing: Kailer Yamamoto, Cooper Marody
Let’s say Dominik Kahun gets chosen by the Seattle Kraken, and Skinner, Khaira, Benson and Yamamoto are the only players added. That gets us to 37, and if Holland signs UFA’s Mike Smith and Slater Koekkoek that makes 39.
Holland has room to sign 7-9 new additions over the summer, even if no one is traded off the roster. It’s going to be a damn busy eight weeks.
NHL ROSTER 50-MAN (WITH SELECT RFA AND UFA)
Edmonton didn’t buy anyone out, but can do so after the draft and I expect it will happen (Neal). Holland can afford to sign two LW’s and move Nuge to center, or he can sign a LW and C (there aren’t many great pivots). Adam Larsson sounds less likely than a few days ago, we’ll see. I think Tyson Barrie might slide into the picture.
If you’re praying, the names are Linus Ullmark, Adam Larsson, Ryan Getzlaf, Taylor Hall and Tomas Tatar.
AHL ROSTER 50-MAN
One of the things I’ll be watching for is several NHL signings that will land in the AHL. Remember the year Peter Chiarelli signed Ty Rattie and a bunch of AHL vets in their mid-20’s? I think we’ll see several forwards added, although the Condors have signed several (including Brad Malone).
Here’s a list of players I believe are headed out: Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, James Neal, Kyle Turris (possibly AHL).
A realistic procurement list is Zach Hyman, Jordan Martinook, Alex Chiasson, Adam Larsson, Mike Smith and Linus Ullmark.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the airwaves with fun and great content (we hope). TSN1260, and our first guest is Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Ken Holland has set a course and the summer procurement is underway. Is Bruce more or less confident in Holland’s work today than he was a week ago? At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk MLB and NBA. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
The problem with Holland picking Broberg has nothing to do with Broberg.
Holland came in and did not support the Oilers scouts and draft list. He did not understand what the had for strengths and weaknesses. He was picking his pick.
The rumor of a rift between Holland and scouts is real. He is not listening.
He was was genuinely shocked at the kickback after the trade. He had no idea. He’s in a vacuum.
We talk about Keiths declining performance and cap hit.
Holland is well past his best before date and paid the most of any GM. Katz once again is not getting his money’s worth.
Is there a rumour about a rift between Holland and the scouts? I was not aware.
Can you elaborate? Or give a link or something?
Pick should have been going to an intermediate team to retain some of cap…with his actual dollars so low surely you might find someone willing to chew 25% at least for a pick no?
The not sending at least turris back and taking a plug contract off their roster to boot…just senseless lack of negotiating consider all factors in play and benefits for hawks here.
I dont mind having Duncan Keith and will cheer like he’ll for him – but I hate this deal.
Last thought;
The whole narrative about being a character guy or good in the room or championship pedigree is totally fine; but it’s completely irrelevant once a player loses their ability to play or loses their ability to play on the ice.
Gretzky & Jordan were the greatest “championship pedigree” guys ever. But after 35 their teams never accomplished anything.
So it just worries me when AGM talks about character and chat is character and championship pedigree with very old players.
If a guy is 29 or 31 ? I get it. 38????
Gretzky was traded at 28ish and never won the cup after. Creating the 35y+ narrative seems arbitrary.
There have been multiple examples of older defensemen playing prominent roles and getting far in the playoffs.
Posted either today or yesterday by people here
Yes it is a short list. KH has all the risk.
Kenny has mined the geriatric once elite D market over the years to great success.
Fetisov, Murphy, Chelios, Rafalski, Lidstrom, Coffey
Its his M-O also no cap helps as well.
Green, Ekman-Larsson, Keith, seems like we’ll have more of this to look forward to while Ken is the GM. More to speculate on, which aging vet defenseman will we target next?!
Yeah, I’ve been meaning to look more thoroughly at this.
Holland has indeed mined that market to great success. I’m wondering if there are also some notable fails in there?
Based on the old guys everyone remembers at least, Holland’s record here is really very good.
At least Keith and Smith have stuff in common.
Aging issues. Teenagers. Doubters.
I say bring Getzlaf… or Parise … or Jagr
Smith is happily married Keith is going through the ringer.
Keith separated from his wife over 6 years ago. The divorce itself is ancient history. This is only about getting to see his son more often, who has been living in Penticton for the past 6 years.
So he’s not in and out of courtrooms and doesn’t have a expensive lawyer. You must be in pretty tight with him:
Any tighter than you are with him? You know, as the person constantly speculating about how much money he needs in order to live through his support payments?
Didn’t you mention retirement after this year was possible sounds like speculating about his finances to me.
“Keith is going through the ringer” sounds pretty much like a statement of fact about what is happening right now with him. You have anything to back it up? The details of his divorce (finalized in 2015) and financial arrangements were publicly disclosed.
I don’t get what your point is but his personal life is why this trade happened in a hurry just like like Arnott and Pronger had to go. Shanahan and Janney saga and countless others over the years. You sound like a fanboy for Holland who can do no wrong where as I’m a Oiler fan first because he could of done so much better with the predicament Bowman was in.
Kent Wilson (@Kent_Wilson) Tweeted:
@Kinger999 @ChinookArchYYC @CofRedCentral Gio is worth more than that given the market set by Keith.
https://twitter.com/Kent_Wilson/status/1415509525717651465?s=20
Mike (@HabsLaughs) Tweeted:
UFA right handed defensemen that can replace Shea Weber:
-Dougie Hamilton.
End of list.
https://twitter.com/HabsLaughs/status/1415474877084094464?s=20
This reminds me of when you said Weber was a better LHD than Nurse.
Ahh, good times.
KH left DET in a hot mess Cap wise. Now It could be true that he had pressure from ownership to continue to win now at all is continue to win now at all costs. We will never know.
But It is not debatable that he signed some terrible longterm contracts in Detroit before he left. Showing almost no Pro Scouting Ability.
HERE GOES NOTHING: KH TRADE RECORD
IN:
NEAL
6th RD
REDMOND
7TH RD
ENNIS
GREEN
ANATHOUSIS
KUFFNER
KEITH
OUT:
LUCIC
3RD RD
MARINO
PERSSON
5TH RD
4TH RD
2ND RD
2ND RD
JONES
3RD RD
Assumimg NEAL gets bough out.
Current roster is KIETH in.
ALL the other stuff out ????
Am I missing something?
Only context.
Lol. I chuckled at that.
I know: but is there a pattern unfolding?
My point is the Trades are facts. They happenned. And if you look whats left on the Roster vs. What went out; makes you blush.
A lot of draft Capital Out
I would have put money down that getting rid of that Lucic contract by itself would have cost more.
and Marino wasn’t going to sign so we got something for him before he walked for free
Absolutely fair points. what about the rest?
Honestly the only one I hated at the time was the AA trade because I felt there was no way he was worth another 2nd
Otherwise I guess he should have predicted covid ?♂️
The Honeymoon is over he’s made some weird decisions that have not panned out. Holland walked into the perfect scenario and we sit with a 1W 7L playoff record under his leadership.
I’m going to go ahead and push back on the perfect scenario. Here’s the 50-man Holland inherited (with Nygard added). https://lowetide.ca/2019/05/29/its-morning-in-edmonton-do-you-trust-it/
it should of been Keith’s job who has Oiler blood running through his veins and not a lifelong Red Wing in Holland being our GM but Katz had to calm the masses and bring in stability. I have no doubt in my mind that we would be closer to a cup with Keith Gretzky running the show.
Perfect scenario??
he was in cap hell with roster holes galore.
I mean you can complain about his decisions since but that was a rough landing.
I agree 1000% , KH took over a hot pile of trash from Pistol Pete.
But. If we just look at his moves since arriving, are we seeing Red Flags?
The Lucic trade was fine. He was handciffed thanks to Pete. KOSKI same. Marino would not sign in Edm.
But the AA & Green at the deadline cost
2nd
2nd
4th
For 10 NHL games
The Keith trade? We wait, but MOST are already questioning that KH has all the risk.
Chiasson. 2 YRS
Kassian 4 YRS
Turris 2 YRS
SHORE 2 YRS
not long term hell, but All Look like swings and misses.
SMITH – Worked out well
I’ll never understand why people lump Green in with the bad moves. It was a 4th for a deadline rental, nothing egregious there. Green got injured, and the entire world was turned upside down. I don’t think we can blame Oilers management for that.
Beyond that point, I agree with you. I wanted Holland to work out, but it just seems like more of what came before him. We convince ourselves the rumours aren’t true, and then we convince ourselves the move wasn’t so bad. I’ll cheer for Keith, and he might be good coverage for Klef, but we shouldn’t have given up value to take that risk.
It sure sucks having Connor, Leon and RNH down the middle and a half decent D with a solid pipeline as well. I can see why it took 25 million to shake Holland out of his cushy job he had for himself in HockeyTown.
If we buy out Neal and Koski can we bring these assets in:
Hall @ 6.5*5
Danault @5.25*4
Larson @4.25*4
Ullmark @3.0 *4
for a total of 19 Million.
Would these additions to lineup help us go deep in the playoffs?
Huh! Looks like nobody thinks these additions will help the Oil. Expanding on the above, this is the lineup we’d see with the above additions:
Mcd RNH JP
Drai Hall Yama
Danault Benson Kass
Mcleod Holloway Archi
JJ Shore
Nurse Bear
Keith Larson
Kookoo Bouch
Ullmark, Smith
Won’t this make noise in the second season?
Sounds like Weber will not be protected and May be out for the season
Just heard on the radio it may be a career ending door injury.
*Foot.
Montreal just cleared up almost $8 million in cap space.
Dougie Hamilton?
Not enough museums
Landeskog.
Sakic loses the Midas touch.
I live in predominantly Hawks country and there’s some pretty devastated people about the Hawks trading Keith
i would be happy as a clam if Mikko would of been part of the trade this was probably the only chance to dump him. I don’t think I can take first shot glove hand side Mikko for 36 more games. He needs to be taken on a camping trip deep in the bush ASAP.
Didn’t Talbot establish a record in his last season here by allowing something like 16 first shot goals? Wouldn’t you like to have Talbot as our goalie now?
What happened to “Kosh”?
I never gave up in no particular order on Dave Dryden, Moog, Fuhr , Ranford, Joseph,Salo, Roloson , Dubnyk. Talbot lost the hard core working man’s confidence just like Mikko has and when that happens it’s time to leave the City of Champions.
So you are saying the trade was a lose-lose? 😉
Just heard that the Hawks are also looking at moving Patrick Kane.
They will be really devastated if that happens.
I think Patrick Kane is looking at moving Patrick Kane
Hopefully Patrick Kane isn’t Patrick Kane’s cab driver when Patrick Kane moves Patrick Kane. Otherwise Patrick Kane is in for a world of hurt.
But if he gets a cab ride from another ex-hawk, one E. Belfour, he could be in for a payday!
If we lose a good kid and leader like Benson without ever test driving him and he pans out which I think he will with a smart cookie like Francis handling him will piss me off. Holland needs to be held accountable sooner or later for some of his strange moves and throwing away draft picks like a drunken Sailor.
You think Benson will pan out. Why?
He is tracking not to pan out? Read draft day projections … he is yet to arrive and hasn’t fixed what plagued him on draft day. Slow Boots
Because Francis is one of the all time greats he will find the correct niche for Benson to succeed for years to come if left unprotected by Holland.
Benson very well could pan out as an NHL player. His time to step up and take that spot is now – if he’s still in the org, he should have every opportunity at camp. He was probably ready last season but Covid led to now tryouts at camp for rookies and no real ability to call-up.
Yanni Gourde had 3 more AHL seasons to come at Benson’s age.
Tampa has two very similar pedigree players they will likely be inserting. into the lineup this season – both with inferior AHL careers.
Benson’s skating issues are so highly over-rated in my opinion – his skating should not preclude an NHL career – he skates well enough.
Nobody was blocking Benson like Yanni no comparison he should of been given an opportunity especially with the draft this year. Excuses. Excuses.. Marody as well he should either be given a chance are set free. You don’t treat your prospects this way and don’t get me started on the first class treatment of Bouchard.
Kahun and Ennis were bought in and back as Coach T. had a one week camp with no exhibition games and had no time to try out unproven rookies. Those players didn’t work out well but, given the three weeks from call-up to being game available (until 80% of the season was done) call-ups were not practical this year.
Gourde played in the minors until he was 3 years older than Benson is now – just one prominent example of how players can “make it” at various ages and how the door is 100% not shut on Tyler Benson.
Ken Holland has been developing prospects for decades with great success – I’ll take his history of success over your speculation of hurt feelings with Benson.
Holland had a stacked team no cap he traded all his picks at the deadline for D depth sound familiar doesn’t it. When your picking projects in the. 6th and 7th rounds these players need your favorite word marinating because they suck that’s why they last till the 6th round. Go back and look at the trades Holland did at the deadline 1st 2nd for D depth didn’t matter to Kenny his team was stacked. All I know is Ken had his buddy Bowman by the balls and instead set him up for years.
How long did first rounder Larkin marinate about the same time Hollaway is going to. When a players ready he’s ready this isn’t rocket science it’s only up and down the ice hockey if you have speed hands and confidence your making millions.
His time to step up and take a spot was 2 years ago.
The Oilers bottom 6 has been the worst in the league for a very long time.
2 years ago, he got two NHL stints and showed marked improvement as between the two. Last year there was no opportunity due to Covid – its too bad but no tryouts were available.
Bruce McCurdy with just a great write up on the trade on the Cult of Hockey
Wow- outstanding
McCurdy is a wonderful, thoughtful writer.
Terrible lead singer in a rock and roll band, though.
Bruce nails it.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/some-thoughts-on-duncan-keith-and-on-the-trade-that-made-him-an-edmonton-oiler
Ha!!
ok guys get this get this!!
This is funny
so we’ve been getting trolled about how if we waited a day we could have had Suter instead of Keith for far less.
But then you go to the Athletic prediction for free agents and guess what their prediction is?
5.3 *3 years!!!
haa!!!!
oh yeah and Suter is not leaving the Midwest
Okay…so now that Keith is firmly in place I am wondering how folks feel now about the 2019 entry draft and the Oilers picking Broberg at #8.
The Bob Father’s list, which is the consensus of the scouting community had Broberg at #15 (Valsili Podkolzin was #8).
The following players were picked after Broberg up to #15.
Zegras
Podkolzin
Soderstrom
Boldy
Knight
York
Caulfield
Was Holland wise in spending a high pick on a D who obviously isn’t helping now or in the immediate future when there was, and is, immediate need for impact top 6 forwards?
Would you argue, as Holland seems to be, that the team is better off in the long run or is this just a miscalculation of the urgency of becoming a true contender?
I feel good about it. Plan for now and for the future. You can’t plan for only one and be successful.
Actually like it a lot more now that Klef is probably done.
Now go join the online outrage at projections showing Podkolzin to be an avg NHLer
Also Keith will help Broberg with the transition.
But hey we all know you are just trolling
How? Keith will likely be done or near done with the Oilers by the time Broberg plays any meaningful stretch of games. Unless the plan is to have Broberg billet with Keith and be the #7 D. Which I don’t see happening.
who You got playing 3rd pairing LD?
Whichever veteran #6,7,8 Kenny has been known to bring in to keep the prospects developing. The times Broberg and Keith are in the same dressing room in the next two seasons could probably be counted on one hand.
Looking at this another way, The Oilers wanted a d-man. They took a d-man. Now every team after them that selected a forward must feel silly that they passed on Caufield. Look at all those poor schlubs. But that’s a silly game isn’t it?
Entertaining that line of thought for D-men: is Soderstrom doing better than Broberg? No. Cam York? No. Thomas Harley? No. etc. Heinola has made it into games for Winnipeg I guess – but the coach didn’t seem to trust him, so again I’d say he’s not doing any better than Broberg. Maybe all these guys will make the NHL and in 10 years we can look back and say OH THE OILERS SCREWED UP THE PICK. For now we can’t, and Broberg looks to be developing just fine.
If he competently fills a top pairing, this decade, I have no issue. At the time of the draft I put that in the context of CMD’s second wave of cup runs, where we’d still need young cheap talent to maintain steam. The fact that we’ll be lucky if it’s the *first* (last?) phase of EDM as a perennial competitor under McD? Well that’s Oilers for ya.
Broberg was a teenager three weeks ago.
It was never anticipated that he would “help” before this season and he probably will play NHL games this season.
Duncan Keith acquired to play 2LD this season has zero to do with Broberg’s development.
Any reasons to like the pick on draft day, remain today. Reasons to not like the pick on draft day remain today.
Broberg’s development is mirroring Oscar Klefbom’s quite nicely.
I wanted Zegras then Caufield then Broberg.
but it’s way too early to make this call especially how much ground Broberg can cover
How many people would take Nurse over Monohan today? How many people would have done that before this past season? I don’t have an issue with Holland taking Broberg based on how long it might take for him to be an NHL player. The only question is whether or not Broberg become a quality NHL defender.
Great example.
Really, it may well come down to how good the GM is at assessing how close his team is being a contender and how waiting on a high draft pick affects the other pieces on his roster.
As I suggested earlier, Holland IMO just overpaid to get a 2nd pairing D since his draft picks are not ready.
Because he made that draft pick, he is now forced to likely overpay in either free agency or trade to acquire a top 6 forward who was obviously available in the Broberg draft..so at best he’s paying twice in the short term for making that pick.
Some might argue that Broberg was the best player available but the consensus of the hockey world suggests that’s not true so it appears Holland picked for need while the clock is ticking on the contracts of his best players.
Whether or not Broberg turns out to be the best D taken in that draft someday (early returns would suggest otherwise) is of little consequence in the next couple of seasons while the high end forwards are having an impact on ELCs.
How do you figure there was a top 6 forward “obviously” available? There’s almost never an obvious move at the draft. In hindsight there are a couple guys that are most likely going to be, but Zegras has 13 NHL points, Caufield has 17. Both of these guys are tracking well and should play a role next year, but Yamamoto is a good example of why you don’t count your chickens before the hatch. None of this was obvious on draft day.
On the other hand, shying away from drafting defensemen because of development time is foolish. Nurse and Klefbom are the first Dmen of consequence the Oilers have drafted and developed in exactly one forever (maybe two), and the D corps was in shambles for a long time. It’s unlikely Brobeg helps this year, but that shouldn’t impact draft day decisions much. Nobody can foresee the future. While we might need a winger right now, we’ll probably need a Dman when Broberg is ready with Klef’s situation and Keith being 37 and off the books in 2 years.
Zegras would sure look good with Leon
Spencer Knight is the only one I would have preferred but I was and am okay with the pick.
Those fast and toolsy defensemen are most often only traded past their prime, or before by mistake.
And I’d like to answer your question with one of my own, as it pertains to your drafting strategy.
Should an organization draft for need, or BPA?
What are the exceptions, if any?
This is evolving in my mind.
If you’re convinced the player can be an elite C or elite D…draft them…no matter your need.
This is especially true of centres since most can play wing just as well.
And, as we’ve seen in the last decade, elite D arrive very early.
Beyond that, always BPA.
I’ve always thought Broberg was drafted for a perceived need at the time which may or may not have been accurate.
And responding to your prior post about great defensemen never being available except through the draft or mistakes I wholeheartedly disagree.
Take a look at how Tampa, Montreal and Colorado, for example, acquired their defensemen.
The cap and especially the flat cap have drastically changed how that market segment functions.
Obviously, draft and develop will always have a role but any GM who relies on it exclusively will find himself left behind.
Elite offensive midget D arrive early. Big D do not. We’ve already been over this
This is nonsense.
Rasmus Dahlin is 6’3” 207.
I could give you a dozen other examples but you would just keep spouting blather so I won’t bother.
By what metrics is Dahlin elite?
I am going to puke if I hear “elite D arrive early” one more time.
Please define “early” and “elite D”.
As a crude exercise, look at the top-scoring D from this past season. The list is littered with D who spent years in development leagues/developing in the NHL before they became real difference makers.
Please provide specific criteria for early and elite.
Top Scoring doesnt mean elite
This is demonstrably false.
14 of the top 20 scoring D last season spent zero to little time developing in the minors never mind “years in development leagues”
http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20202021&seasonTo=20202021&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50
I don’t think Broberg was drafted for need. I think they thought he was BPA. Maybe they’re right. I was very disappointed with the pick though. Seemed like he should have went 7-10 spots later, which is a lot in the first round. I guess we’ll see. He’s very athletic so there is still that upside.
Imagine picking podkolzin when you could have had Boldy, Knight, York or caufield. Yikes
You mean the 19 year old who led CSKA St. Peterburgh in playoff scoring in the second best league in the world or some other Podkolzin?
Yes, that’s the one
He’s tracking like Klefbom that’s a win. There are miles to go.
Klefbom’s probably done 378 games in 4 1/2 years did he really cover the bet being made of glass his whole career. A lot of time, energy juggling the line-up because he’s injured again or dealing with a staph infection which can be career ending In it self. In my opinion he was dominant in only one year 2017 which isn’t enough if I’m the GM trying to keep the Wolves at bay and keep the best job on the planet.
Miles to go is both a blessing and a curse in this case.
When you pick a player that high in the contemporary NHL, you would like to see an impact sooner rather than later when the clock is ticking on your best players.
You mean like Podkolzin, who is almost the exact same age and is a forward (who are supposed to arrive even earlier). I believe your verbal on this player was glowing with playoff production yet he has shown no more than Broberg and, given he’s a forward, his development can be viewed as nothing but disappointing vis-a-vis Broberg.
I’m not a fan of the structure of the Keith trade but …
Keith was a big part of the Hawks’ play-in series win. That was August, 2020 … eleven months ago.
I recall Chicago getting off to a hot, PDO-driven start to the season. However around the middle of the season they were a spent force an no longer in contention.
I’d like to see Keith’s 1H vs 2H splits on the 2021 season. Could he have ‘checked-out’ in March after the Hawks were no longer competitive?
Every player declines with age, but perhaps Keith went through a dip this season due to the malaise of CoVid and the hopelessness of the season played.
If he’s anywhere near the player he was ONE YEAR AGO we’re getting a massive upgrade at 2LD.
Through March 15 (29 games) Keith had a GF/GA of 51% with a PDO of 1.018. The remainder of the season (27 games), he had a GF/GA of 41% with a PDO of .981. So yes, his and Chicago’s results declined in the back half of the season. I don’t put much stock in xGF/xGA for assessing individual players. Its value is highest, but still not perfect, when looking at overall league scoring. That diminishes when using it for an overall team assessment. But the public data is far too vague for it to be useful in assessing and/or predicting the effectiveness of individual players. I’d get rid of a consultant who tried to tell me how oil and gas wells would perform based on industry wide decline curves even for a specific play (different companies get widely varied results drilling similar acreage in a similar region for a whole host of reasons that need to be accounted for), and similarly I wouldn’t put much stock in the analytic value of xGF/xGA based on Naturalstattrick data to assess the past and future performance of an individual player.
Some would claim that the difference between expected and actual is just puck luck, but somehow Kris Russell’s actual goal share has been above his expected goal share for 12 of the last 13 seasons and in many seasons by quite a bit. Caleb Jones did not have an unlucky season, he had a poor season. No guarantees in life, but the odds are pretty good that Duncan Keith will be a better 2rd pair left D next season than any left D that was in that role this past season.
Agreed
anyone that thinks we just gave away Caleb Jones needs to rewatch his last year
We gave away nothing
Let’s see what he looks like after being mentored by his big brother for a few years.
Well I have taken 2 days to try and process the Keith trade ….
I still don’t understand what KH was thinking or how this transpired. I was ASSUMING Edm would be getting a pick OR Chi woold have retained some salary.
Reminds of another trade; where I heard “It’s 1 for 1” …. I said yah but what picks does Edm get and my friend said “No, it’s 1 for 1” ?
Yup. I know exactly how you feel.
Oilers official picks:
19, 116, 180, 186, 212
This is Not Good ?
Bit of a gap there….
Similar gap to this past draft and they turned one of those mid round picks in to Savoie and Tulio…..
Who? Is this an endorsement to piss your draft picks away? I’m all for using them to get help now, but that wasn’t the bill of goods we were sold on with Kenny, is it? Draft and Develop is supposed to be his MO. But maybe he swings some deals to get salary out and picks back. I’m not sure that it’s going to be that kind of year, though. I can see players AND picks going for cap relief.
It was simply pointing out that the Oilers has a large gap last between their 1st rounder and their next pick and the GM and the scouting staff was able to grab two talented skilled forwards well after their rankings on most boards – two “real prospects” as we sit today. Not sure why that seemed to trigger such emotion.
Did you just passive aggressively call me a triggered snowflake?
Surely you point underlines the idiocy of trading picks for magic beans.
Or do you think Ken has another Datsyuk and Zetterberg in him?
I don’t know what a snowflake is except the white stuff I have to shovel in the winter. I was just pointing out, in response to a post that showed the Oilers have 100 spots between picks, that not all is lost – it was similar last year and it looks like a very solid draft. You seem to be inferring meaning to an innocuous post that isn’t there.
There are no American tanks at the Baghdad airport.
You think you are clever with your passive aggressive insults but, of course, all they do is show immaturity. Carry on though as they give you so much pleasure.
Have we ever graduated a sixth round pick?
Marino was a 6th round pick, though we didn’t graduate him.
Davidson and Hartikainen were 6th round picks too. Brodziak was a 7th round pick.
You know who the Oilers all time best 6th round pick was? Steve Smith.
PLAYERS drafted after #100, to play more than 100 Games for EDM (mostly).
Between 2005 & 2015
2010 – Brandon Davidson
2015 – Ethan Bear & Caleb Jones (93 GP)
There is your list. The pickin’s be slim after #100
They will likely need to put Klef on off-season LTIR in order to get cap compliant on day 1. The amount of the LTIR reserves they will have (the amount they will be able to go over the cap by), will be the amount their total cap on the date of placement – no extra.
Of course, they will need to be less than $4.1M over the cap in order for this to work.
Also, importantly, if they are using LTIR reserves from day 1, just like last season, they will be accruing no cap space daily to bank and use for in-season transactions. Get used to “dollar in and dollar out” as we approach the deadline.
Using LTIR reserves – SUCKS!
A cold enough GM would trade the contract to avoid the hassles.
Contract is not insured. So this would be cost prohibitive in assets
Tampa managed for all of 2021 with Kucherov on LTIR. I believe they had to pick up Gaborik and Nilsson and their LTIR numbers as well before the season to make it all work. It cost them 2 guys they probably didn’t want anymore (Colburn and Paquette) plus they had to throw in a 2nd rounder. Not saying its easy or cheap, but it can be accomplished.
Thanks OP
So can Neal be added to LTIR as well, allowing us to exceed the cap up to the sum of his and Klefbom’s salaries?
If he’s injured and gone for the entire season.
I think James Neal is looking to play NHL hockey so i don’t see him going along with a rouse.
I know that he’d have to be gone for the season, but maybe it’s more appealing to him to get the rest of his contract paid in full as opposed to the buyout and maybe signing a pto. I’m not sure there would be a market for him at all.
I anticipate he’d get a contract from an NHL team.
Either way, if he wants to play hockey this year, agreeing to go with an LTIR rouse prohibits that.
If the start the season about 3m over the cap, then waive 3 guys who won’t get claimed before rosters have to be set, and play the first game with a 20 man roster, then call LTIR Klefbom and call everybody back up so there’s 4m to play with, would that work?
Yes, that would but here is hoping there aren’t three guys that would not be claimed on the roster…… Bouchard could be one of the guys, waiver exempt, but, then again, I believe there is a cap implication of calling guys up during the season with performance bonuses.
Well Bouchard and McLeod are 99% sure to be 2 ELC players on the roster who could be sent down for compliance. Shore/Turris seem like other obvious options who could be waived to get compliant.
I think there are salary cap implications with respect to bringing players up mid-season with performance bonuses (so this would hit Bouchard, if its true).
Also, the opening night 23 likely doesn’t have Turris to start with (although I think he’ll compete hard to make the team at camp and, from accounts, is training hard in Edmonton these days).
If I was Holland besides a Goalie and a 3C I would be using Keith to target Saab I know he’s American but so was Weight and Guerin who I fell in love with both with their dedication and talent. I got a good vibe that we will lock him up and he will mesh with Connor and Leon and rip up the league for at least 30 plus goals
Saab is Swedish!
I like Saab too…better than BMW..:)
Not enough like minded customers out there. Saab went bankrupt in 2012 and the successor company that bought the assets to make electric cars ceased using the name in 2014.
Sounds like a Saab story
Ill show myself out
A Saad story followed with a Saad joke! Starts ducking the flying objects.
magical thread ?
lol.
A fave of me Pa’s, as it happens. Never owned but always talks them up
I bought a SAAB 900 new. My favourite car of all time including an Audi and Mercedes that I have owned.
Just a beauty to drive.
Lets say we didn’t make the move for Duncan Keith. Please propose to me what the Oilers D core looks like for next season? Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear full stop. None of the prospect are capable of stepping into the top 4 just yet. Larsson is not signed, Klef is on LTIR and Barrie is not signed. Not many top 4 D available in free agency and even fewer likely coming to Canada. Plus you are competing against 31 other teams potentially to get them driving the price up. Holland felt a bird in the hand…… I will take the assurance of having a legit NHL defenceman vs magic beans. It is easy to see how Holland felt he had to make the move.
Can I add: Including Larsson at $4M and Sekera’s buyout, our top 4D are currently $18.4M in cap (Klef LTIR and not counted). That seems reasonable for next year’s cap hit.
Of course you can. I just hope Larsson re-signs. If we lose him we have huge holes to fill.
Yarp. That’s the right take. The lack of retention of any money at all is the issue with the trade. Apart from that I have no issue with Keith as a stop gap 2LD until Klefbom either returns (please), or Broberg or Samorukov forces the issue.
I know we can say “if we’d only waited a day, we could have offered Suter a deal”. However I don’t think Suter signs here – he’s going to have most of the league after him even if he is in decline.
Other Left D? I don’t think Martinez comes here. After that the choice is pretty weak for left d in free agency this year. Oleksiak? He’ll get paid by someone. Goligoski – similar to Keith. Kulikov was maybe an option, but definitely offers less than a little in the way of offence – I didn’t mind him though.
Again, if the Blackhawks had retained even a million I’d probably be reasonably pleased with the Keith trade. With no retention I’m disappointed, but don’t dislike the player.
I agree. Salary retained of any amount would have been ideal, But we did badly need a legit second pair D after the news on Klefbom. I suspect we would have paid close to Keith on a FA if we could find one to come here and likely would have been for at least double the term. It’s only 2 yrs and based on money owed, Keith could retire next year. A lot of people losing their minds over a mil.
All that being said, I do think in a second line role, Keith will be just fine. I am honestly looking forward to him and Larsson on a pair. They are both mean. Keith is no shrinking violet and will have a chip on his shoulder for sure.
Even one year of Turris the other way would make this more palatable.
Also very true. Man. I really wanted that Turris bet to work out.
Nick Leddy is a better bet. Same money, 8 years younger and just 1 year left.
So refreshed about a half an hour. Couldn’t get back in and got the Data Base error message (had trouble getting in first thing this morning as well). Just tried again and got back in. Gremlins obviously alive and well!
Yeah, it’s been bad today around lunch time.
Lowetide is a victim of his own success. Too much traffic.
Traffic is way up today from yesterday.
Maybe LT will have to turn this site into a private club with a monthly recurring membership fee.
Vomit inducing LW depth chart.
Sooooooo…circle back to Barrie?
Or go all in on Hamilton?
Yeah, you had the order wrong.
I still think Larsson will be back though.
All in! They’ll never see it coming
In Duncan Keith
Out Caleb Jones, Adam Larson (would be ironic if he signed in Chicago)Tyler Benson, 3rd round pick, 4.5 million on Cap
Not good asset management. Does not inspire confidence.
Just wait for the 6×6 for Hyman ?
Exactly part of the issue. If Holland had to go shopping for a FA to fill that second line D spot, what would it have cost?
Who filled that spot last year? There is more than one way to skin a cat.
1. Wait ro see what happens in the expansion draft.
2. You make a deal at the deadline just before the playoff run.
The biggest challenge is do you trust Kenny to make a smart trade/signing?
It’s not sign a FA or bust
You may be right. I’m hoping for 5.5×5.
Where is the 4.5 on the cap coming from?
Is that the difference with Jones out and Keith in?
I was thinking that is what he meant but in his scenario he doesn’t include the space created by Larsson “out” or Klefboms salary to LTIR. Actually as he has proposed, the Oilers actually gain 4 mill in space.
The Oilers have ~$11.5 million of cap room with Keith on the roster and with Klefbom’s contract effectively not on LTIR (or on LTIR but not going over the cap). If they buyout Neal, they gain another $3.8 million for the next 2 seasons (at the expense of -1.95 million in years 3 & 4). If they buy out Koskinen, they get another $ 3 million this year (and have a cap hit of $1.5 million the next).
So without having Klefbom’s $$ causing the team go over the cap, the range of cap they have would be $11.5 million to $19.3 million to pay for Larsson ($3-$4 million), Yamamoto (~$1.5 to $ 2 million) leaving $5.5 to as much as $15 million to go after other players (1 goalie if Koskinen stays or maybe 2 if he goes, plus a few forwards). And every player currently holding a roster spot that gets pushed down by a new player coming on board, frees up $700,000 to $1.1 million max. For example, Turris is listed on the roster right now, but if he gets replaced and goes to the AHL, it frees up ~$1.1 million whereas Shore or Lagesson being pushed off the 23 man roster frees up their actual cap hits ($725,000 and $850,00).
Without a buyout or a trade that moves salary, Kenny doesn’t have tons of room to add everything he probably believes he needs. But with 2 buyouts, he would have quite a bit of room. And it is also possible to use Klefbom’s cap hit, to get another player, either in season, or even beforehand, but that limits his flexibility.
No, your predictions do not inspire confidence.
That call they just played on OilersNow, from the night the Oilers were booted from the playoffs, with the caller pretty much predicting/forecasting the future Keith situation to a tee was…. strange. And the dude sounded half drunk to boot!
Now every single one of those crazy calls that comes into the open line I’ll be wondering if it’s possibly true. “This caller suggesting the Oilers could get Victor Hedman sounds batsh** crazy…. but what if???” lol.
…..and that little caller grew up to be……Ken Holland.
And now you know the rest of the story.
Well played…very well played
Thank you Mr. Harvey!
That AHL defence looks absolutely wonderful. I think Lennstrom may be added. No sure thing but I think the’ll qualify him. May need to subtract Sammy from the Condors’ roster – I could see him on the NHL team in October and, if not, prior to the turn of the calendar.
Oubviously Yamamoto and Benson will be qualified and brought back – Kailer will likely sign for a couple of years with an AAV around $2M. I think Benson may be lost in expansion the way its going and I won’t like it.
Khaira may not get qualified but I think he’ll be back – from accounts the team is looking to get him signed for a bit less than his QO – probably will get a couple of years in order to get that done.
I still see no reason not to qualify Kahun at $1M – I think the risk of an award over $2M in arbitration is low and he didn’t struggle to produce with 2nd line minutes any more than Yamamoto did. Qualify him but don’t protect him – it could save the organization Tyler Benson.
I remain confidant that Adam Larsson will be back next season.
Let me get this straight.
You have said that Broberg was drafted because Klefbom was injured and Broberg was his replacement.
Now the Oilers have signed Keith as a replacement for Klefbom.
What, then, was the point in drafting Broberg when the Oilers were, and are, in desperate need of top 6 wingers?
Was Klefbom injured when they drafted Broberg? Broberg was drafted because they wanted Broberg, who will be ready at the appropriate time.
Have you moved on from bashing Bouchard now to bashing Broberg?
Broberg likely replaces Keith and Klefbom one day. It’s like saying “why did Barcelona sign Iniesta to the youth academy when they already had Guardiola and Iniesta?”. In the words of Guardiola himself: “You will retire me, but this kid will retire us both.”
I was told (repeatedly) here that the reason Broberg was drafted was because Holland knew Klefbom was injured and would not be available.
Well…here we are with Klefbom gone and Holland trades for Keith to fill that hole which blows that theory right out of the water.
As of this next season, would the Oilers be better off with a high end forward from that draft and Keith on the roster or having yet another defenseman marinating in the minors while scrambling to find a top 6 winger?
As it turns out, the Oilers have already overpaid for Keith and are likely to overpay for a winger either in free agency or though trade as well as drafting Broberg higher than he should have been.
The logic escapes me.
So let me get this straight, you being the most brilliant man alive can’t see how Duncan Keith is filling the Oscar Klefbom role while Philip Broberg is developing? Which if all goes right in 2 years Philip Broberg will be knocking it out of the park assuming a 2nd pairing role behind Nurse while Duncan Keith’s contract is at an end who said replaced Oscar Klefbom due to a career ending injury.
Your brilliant ass can’t do that math?
You’re such a damn fraud.
He can do math. He just chooses not to when it helps him to crap on the Oilers. Which is much worse actually.
This is a polite take.
There have been a lot of times HH has just.. made up numbers. Or parotted wrong numbers put up by someone else and defended them.
Anything HH posts requires an integrity audit by whoever wants to attempt having a serious discussion with him.
Question for the group. If we can’t get Larsson done, do we take a shot at Brogan Rafferty?
No point. Rafferty is going to the Kraken. Shit, he WILL be the Kraken. No need to ice up a whole team when you have Rafferty and his ability to cover the entire ice and play as if he has mythological strength and 8 arms. Brogan Krakerty. Book it.
Yes, this is also true, haha.
Holland walked into a team stacked on D prospects with a couple of MVP Centres up front. Buys out Sekera when he didn’t have and has pissed away drafted picks like cheap beer. All that would have been forgiven if he would of dumped Mikko’s contract to the Hawks on the Keith deal.
There are a number of ways to get rid of Mikko’s contract. Stay tuned….ha ha
How can Holland possibly expose Benson with that LW depth chart?
RNH
Neal (buyout candidate)
Kahun (will they qualify?)
Shore (not an analytics signing)
Holloway
Shore should at best be our 13th forward. If we buyout Neal and the Kraken claim Benson, and Kahun doesn’t get qualified, that will be interesting.
Yeah, but we got a 38 year old “Top 4 ” Dman – baby!
I can’t see Benson being exposed unless two more forwards worthy of protecting are added first.
You should prepare yourself, I could definitely see it happening.
Kassian was # 6 in forward TOI this playoffs. Keith went out of his way to mention him too (that was actually interesting).
(To be clear, I’d have Benson among those protected too).
I have never ever stated that they drafted Broberg because Klefbom was injured.
100% never!
Agreed.
I think Holland will protect:
McDavid
Drai
Nuge
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
Kassian
Archibald
I agree. Bye bye Benson. After a total of seven NHL games. Egregious.
As i pointed out, this was never cited as a reason by me – not once, not ever.
Holland drafted Broberg (likely) because he valued him as the best player for the team to win Stanley Cups – the goal he is building towards. Holland values defencemen and depth in that area.
On that day Broberg was drafted it was known that he was raw and was going to take years before he was NHL ready. He is progressing on time and very well could play in the NHL this year.
He was a teenager 3 weeks ago.
Well, you may be right. Clearly Holland doesn’t value cap space the same way most of us do and might not consider Kassian a negative asset. I’m fine if Archibald is the last guy protected but this is not a player you should worry about losing in an expansion draft. If we miss him enough he’s a UFA in a year again.
Bruins with a nice deal on Brandon Carlo
6 x $4.1m
Talk about a Sweeney-heart deal!
Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) Tweeted:
The Bruins have signed defenceman Brandon Carlo to a six-year, $24.6-million contract extension.
Details https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/2935.svg
https://t.co/dQwygxEHYe
https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1415367760016773121?s=20
The Washington Capitals can only protect one of Vitek Vanecek (25 years old) or Ilya Samsonov (24 years old) ahead of the expansion draft.
I’m confused by these type of posts, it’s only helpful to trade the player if there is a substantial dropoff in the likely next player selected. Do you have an idea of the quality of other exposed Washington players?
i read an article on The Athletic out of Washington about their protection plans. It sounds like they are most concerned about losing one of their goalies, and f not them, potentially Justin Schultz who will likely be left exposed.
“If you’re praying, the names are Linus Ullmark, Adam Larsson, Ryan Getzlaf, Taylor Hall and Tomas Tatar.”
Nice Dream Team
In the mean time we’ll all sleep with one eye open, gripping the pillow tight
Nods off.. zzz….”Ullmark, Larsson, Getzlaf, Landeskog”
Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
nteresting secondary cost to the Keith trade:
– if they sign Larsson pre-expansion, they’re exposing a good forward (4-4 approach) or one of Bear/Larsson (7-3-1 approach)
– if they can sign Larsson pre-expansion but don’t, there’s a greater risk that he goes to UFA
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1415360962979196928?s=20
They should ask Keith to waive his NMC. No way Seattle picks him up. They aren’t picking up cap space without being compensated for it.
Pretty risky.
Seattle just might take him if they don’t find other options attractive.
Seattle isn’t going to waste their cap space. If they are picking up a contract that’s underwater, they are going to want to be paid for it with other compensation.
Are you suggesting the Oilers are wasting cap space on Keith?
Obviously I am and everyone knows that. Everyone except Holland.
I was surprised “waiving his NMC” wasn’t a condition of the trade.
Leads me to believe Larsson is a lock.
Or they trade bear for something and have someone in mind RD
I think Larsson waits on signing. But it was mentioned a while back (Stauffer?) that Holland was looking at 3Cs that other teams might lose to Seattle (though he gave no suggestion that was likely in his availability).
It’s conceivable Bear could go in exchange for one of those guys.
Nolan Patrick.
Fits a need for both teams.
I’d also have time for Warren Foegele+, as CAR will need to add to their RHD stable when Hamilton signs elsewhere.
Yes, either could be possibilities, though I’m in absolutely no rush to move Bear.
I said this yesterday but I think its worth repeating.
Keiths Even strength goals for
This last year with Lankinen 49.5%
The year before with Crawford 55%
Not sure why it dropped to 47% with Lehner
But still pretty decent for a team that finished 12th
The real problem was the 37% goal share with Subban who is a AHL caliber goalie.
I dont like the cap hit, but this does not look like a player that is done
This is great info, leadfarmer.
Finished 12th in what?
Oh sorry…you’re talking about the 2019-2020 season. Not this past season.
Sounds like Landeskog is seeking 8M and might hit the open market.
I haven’t worked out the opportunity costs lost on doing that but it seems that a 7.5Mx7 deal for him would be vastly preferred to the rumoured costs for Hyman. As good as Hamilton is I believe Landeskog is the only UFA available without downside so I’d rather have him… even thought it forces a bottom 6 fix that has to come from the bargain bin instead of the tier 2 prospects.
Strange. I don’t know many times I have read that Landeskog would be guaranteed to stay with the Overwheling Avalanche and RNH would leave the Oilers.
“How the turntables have.. turned…”
I’d written Landeskog off as an option, I couldn’t see him leaving the Avs. I still think the chance of him going anywhere else is pretty low, this smells like agent trying to squeeze a few extra dollars from Sakic.
Now Saad – is there zero chance that we could convince him to come to the Oilers? If we’re unlikely to get Hall or Landeskog he’s the next best thing out there. Could Keith do some convincing for us?
Saad-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Drai-Yamo
Benson/Holloway-XXX-Kassian
Khaira-McLeod-Archibald
Then either we find a 3C at a reasonable dollar amount, or another left winger and move Nuge to 3C as LT suggests above.
I would really like Landeskog. Over Hall, over any of the forwards out there.
Landeskog is Hyman on steroids. Has been the C since forever, is mean and nasty and scores. If you’re willing to give Hyman $6 mill, you have to be willing to give Landeskog $8 mill.
If the difference between Hyman and Landeskog turns out to be a couple mill, it’ll be a pretty good illustration of why the Oil needed to have money retained on a trade for a $5.5 million 2LD/3LD.
The bottom-6 fix is going to come from the farm IMO, and not right away. McLeod can be part of that, and Holloway and Lavoie. Perhaps Benson… it’ll come into focus in the next 12-18 months. Holland will limp along with Shore types for now.
I’ve been posting a lot about how Koskinen’s contract is untradeable, my phone dings, cover screen notification reads, “The Oilers trade Goalten..”
I’m like, “furk. Time to eat crow.” Click on the notification. “The Oilers trade Goaltender Dylan Wells.”
I’m both happy and disappointed at the same time.
Truth spoken by Mr. McCurdy!
What did he say?
I would obviously be paraphrasing Ryan. The general idea was that he was a little flabbergasted by the Keith trade; and Kenny’s propensity to throw away draft picks “like rice at a wedding” since he arrived. ?
The site is working much better now, thank you for getting a fix in guys!
With Hyman definitely set to hit the market according to LeBrun, and the word out of the Oilers camp is that this is a player the team “covets”, odds are high that he ends up here for sure. He is used to playing in Canada, he obviously likes and can play with superstars, and Holland wants exactly his player type.
At this point, I would be surprised if he isn’t an Oiler. And that will likely be a gross overpay. I love the player, I am certain we are all going to hate the price.
Things are holding on for now, but we might need to find a new web host.
I bought us more broadband.
It’s like Captain Kirk rescued his good friend Montgomery Scott by purchasing some dilithium crystals.
Thank you.
More broadband, in the middle of the summer …….. only in Edmonton 🙂
Broad Band would be a great name for an all female rock group.
Thanks LT, and Ryan.
?
Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) Tweeted:
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/1f501.svg TRADE https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/1f501.svg
The #Oilers have traded goaltender Dylan Wells to Carolina in exchange for future considerations.
#LetsGoOilers https://t.co/GhPhw6K3Zv
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1415344325345480704?s=20
Michael Smith (@MSmithCanes) Tweeted:
The #Canes have acquired goaltender Dylan Wells from the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for future considerations.
Wells is an RFA and, if tendered his qualifying offer in the next week, would meet exposure requirements for the Expansion Draft.
https://twitter.com/MSmithCanes/status/1415344119807938562?s=20
Saw the trade and thought this had to be part of it. Couldn’t have gotten a pick? Playing nice after the goalie fiasco?
Holland seems like a really nice man.
A pick? No chance – this player was not going to be qualified and was going to be a UFA.
Carolina wants him because he qualifies for the expansion draft, from what I gather – why wouldn’t Holland get something tangible from a GM that cratered his goaltending for the first month of the year? If Carolina is actually going to give him a shot and this is Holland doing Wells a solid after not playing him in a game last year, then that’s fine by me.
Can’t imagine Carolina would have given up anything tangible to acquire wells to meet the expansion draft exposure requirement – there are likely many similar goalies toiling in team’s minor league systems – they would have just gone somewhere else.
Future considerations like, “we promise not to poach your backup goalie if there’s ever another covid crisis??”
Kurt being inegmatic.
The #Oilers have traded goaltender Dylan Wells to Carolina in exchange for future considerations.
Kurt Leavins
@KurtLeavins
·
8h
These things never happen for “no” reason…
Al is obviously trying to motivate #29 this offseason ?
The Oilers traded for a 2nd pairing defenceman that will be paid $1.8 Million over the next two years.
And if it is demonstrated that he got too old and can’t play anymore he can retire at the end of next season and the Oilers will gain $9 Million in cap space.
If Keith retires – that leaves your GM having traded a 3rd round AND an Elite skating 24 year old Defencemen – for 180 days of Duncan Ketih.
Caleb Jones is not anything close to being elite.
It’s not at all clear Chicago will even protect him.
The $3.4 cap benefit (in addition to the $5.5M off the cap) would make that an amazing outcome.
Yes, Jones is elite skating….. he is still a 6-7 d-man in the NHL and very likely left unprotected in the expansion draft. Don’t get me wrong, I do value Caleb Jones but that description was intentionally misleading on the player’s NHL abilities as a whole.
Yep, with possible upside to being more than a 6.
People defending the trade based based on Keith retiring – miss just just how bad the deal then becomes.
180 days of Keith.
Possible upside to be more than a 6.
As of now, not more than a 6 and not able to fill the hole that Keith will be asked to.
Yes, I think Keith will perform better this season than Caleb Jones did last season and, yes, I’ve read all the stats (along with the ones that say Seth Jones is a poor d-man).
Noone is defending the trade based on Keith retiring but, its a point of note, its not totally out of the question and it would create $9M in cap space for 2022/23 so, yes, I’ll take 180 days of Keith.
One inconsistency I see here (not saying Holland wouldn’t do it, just that it doesn’t compute): trading assets for Keith at full cap hit for his ‘proven playoff leadership’ and then signing Tatar to play in the top-6, who was healthy scratched for most of Montreal’s playoff run and most of Vegas’ 2018 run.
He’s now missed 29 of his teams’ last 52 playoff games and scored just 23, 3-2-5 when he did play.
I am with you and am not on the Tatar train. I know his regular season stats are really good. Oilers making the playoffs as the 1st or 2nd seed are both reasonable projections even without Tatar. What the team needs is guys who will play hard in the playoffs and that is not what Tatar brings or he would not have been scratched for young players and rookies.
“When I was with Detroit, Tomas Tatar scored 110 goals in 5 years for Detroit when I was with Detroit. That’s right in the NHL Guide and Record Book.”
Top drawer post – love it.
“Let the fools have their tartar sauce”
C. Montgomery Burns
Yet, on some level – I almost expect a Tatar signing at this point.
To supply some optimism about Keith here are a few older players playing significant roles on contending teams in the playoffs:
Chris Chelios played 26:22 for 23 games in the playoffs at 40 years old to win the Cup. He won another Cup at 46 in a lesser role.
Zdeno Chara won a Cup at 33 playing 27:39 per over 24 games. Then went to the finals at 35 playing 29:32 per over 22 games and again at 41, playing 21:28 over 23 games
Ray Bourque won a Cup at 40 playing 28:32! per for 21 games!
Rob Blake lost in the conference final at 40 years old, playing 23:20 per.
Nick Lidstrom played 26:49/gm in 22 games to win a cup at 37 yrs old, and at 38 went to the final playing 25:39 in 21 games.
Scott Stevens went to the finals at 36, playing 22:37 per, and won Cups at 35, and 38 playing 25:25 and 24:44 per respectively.
Al MacInnis lost in the conference finals at 37 playing 30:46 per.
Larry Robinson won a Cup at 34, then went to the final at 37.
Chelios, Chara, Bourque, Blake, Lidstrom, Stevens, MacInnis, and Robinson all played significant roles in a good playoff run at 37 or older. I think Keith fits in with these players as far as skill and accomplishments. He may surprise us on a new team, closer to his son.
Some other decent but a bit younger runs:
Brook Orpik played 16:49 per on their Cup run at 37 years old.
Jay Bouwmeester won a Cup at 35, playing 23:30 per night.
Willie Mithcell won a Cup at 34 and 36 playing 25:19 & 22:20 respectively.
Chris Pronger went to the finals at 35 playing 29:03 per night. (We may have seen some older playoff runs if not for career-ending injuries)
Larry Murphy won a Cup at 35 and 36.
Shea Weber made it to the finals at 35, playing 25:13 per game.
Ron Hainsey played 21:07 at 35 to win a Cup.
Deryk Engelland went to the finals at 35 and played 21:39 per night.
Dano Boyle went to the conference finals at 34, playing 26:11 a night and again at 38 playing 19:48 per.
Paul Martin went to the finals at 34, playing 22:04 per night.
Kimmo Timonen went to the finals at 34 playing 26:38 per and won a Cup at 39 in a bottom-pairing role.
Scott Niedermeyer won a Cup at 33, playing 29:51 per game.
Steve Duchesne won a Cup in a diminished role at 36 years old.
The only reference/comparison from above that makes sense to me is Chara as he did it in the ‘faster’ NHL. Now Chara did it with smarts and being bigger than any other player in the NHL. It has been reported that Keith is still a good skater and we know that he did not lose his hockey IQ overnight so he should be just fine.
To be fair to Keith, I haven’t heard one report that foot speed is an issue. He can still skate. Not defending the trade.
I think Lidstrom, Chelios and Bourque are the closest players stylistically. Lidstrom overlapped eras with Keith. Neither were big, but they were both smart, skilled, and fast. Chelios wasn’t big either but played with an edge, much like Keith. Bourque was fast, too. All are in the 6′-1″, 190lbs range.
I believe all of Chara, Weber, Hainsey, Orpik and Bouwmeester listed above were in the last 5 years or so.
These are the correct comparables, not Ference, Lucic.
I am not annoyed or concerned about the player – haven’t seen him play in over a year so what do I know – I am totally pissed at Holland over the purchase price.
I agree. To be clear, I’m definitely not defending the trade. I don’t believe Holland had to pay as much as he did. If anything, maybe they should have paid the Oilers to take Keith if they weren’t retaining. Holland had all the leverage and used none of it. That said, there is reason to hold some optimism, hence the post. Keith might be exactly what this team needs come playoff time.
Lidstrom won a Norris at 40, Chelios came in 2nd in Norris voting at 40, Bourque came in 2nd in Norris voting at 40. Chelios switched to a contender at 37, Bourque switched to a contender at 39. Lidstrom, Bourque, and Keith have all garnered Norris, Hart, and Byng votes throughout their career. Chelios only got Norris and Hart votes (no Byng for him, haha). With their speed and style, I’d say Lidstrom and Bourque are the nearest players to Keith. And that bodes well for his 38, 39, and 40-year-old seasons. Fingers crossed.
Prices for goalers might be a bit lower before the expansion draft. Time to land a goaler that can’t be protected. Smith deal can wait a bit.
Listening to the Lowdown yesterday wanted to ask how much had to be retained to balance the Keith trade and *boom* LT tells DJ around 2 million a year.
Fortunately, UFA day is usually on Canada Day and I can flee to the mountains and beaches to ignore the tidal wave of overpays at the annual twit race regatta.
It’s bad, but how bad on the boat-holing whale hunting scale?
UFA Alternatives = Limited with more holes than plugs.
2-year term that won’t be found on the UFA market = Huge relief.
Overpay – I’m thinking 1.5M/year. Definitely, at least 25% needed to be retained.
The hole was big, the alternatives slim, and the overpay is confined to 2 years – not sure that’s even as bad as the Kassian deal.
Hang on. This was just the preamble.
I won’t cry if Adam Larsson isn’t signed because he wants above $4M or a fourth year.
Dom L at The Athletic both prices out and measures the value of the top-50 UFA’s here: NHL free agency: Ranking the top 50 available UFAs – The Athletic
Like the Keith acquisition, all UFA options fall into the category of ‘expensive luxuries’, of which Ken Holland can afford one, maybe two.
Adam Larsson, given his one-dimensional utility (helluva dimension, mind you), would be categorized as a luxury, but given the scarcity of right-shot D expect someone to lavishly overpay.
To maximize Keith, Larsson (or equivalent) is required for 2RD. A lot of bloggers are talking about how Keith has had to babysit young D for the last couple of years, well Larsson has had a parade of lesser-lights to play with and will be better with Keith. Larsson at $4m x 4 would be on the high end but Holland has painted himself into a corner. If, as has been reported, that Philly is interested in Larsson, I am not worried. Their team is not as good, the tax rates are close (40% and 46%) and Larsson wears an ‘A’ here. Holland will get this done and then, barring injuries, the D is better than last year.
And we should value Dom Ls opinion because,,,,,?
Gretzky should sign Marody to 2-way contract as RW cover. I would take a look at a ‘close to 1 pts/g AHL player’ instead of Turris.
Benson should be protected and signed. Cannot see him clearing waivers as the Kraken would be all over him, so he makes the Oilers or plays for another NHL team this year. Benson’s second stint in the NHL was much better than his first and is a viable option @ 3LW for the coming season.
I do not like buyouts and was hoping for none this year as the money will be needed down the road. However, with the Keith deal, Holland has put himself in a corner and now needs to find some cap room for a #1LW. Trading Kassian (which I don’t like at all) may be an option – hello Brian Burke! Guentzel or Zucker could both be fits for the Oilers.
could benson be the next Hyman?…or thereabouts?…I really worry we don’t protect him and he pops as a real nil’r for someone else…that hurts every time!…
Keith contract will be eaten up by Klefbom LTI
Stop saying stuff like this or it’s going to come true!!!
LT, with respect to Chaisson, do you believe it’s a situation of the ‘devil you know’ rather than keeping him because he provides something substantial to the team? I’m asking because I think there may be others available later this summer who might offer the same skillset at a reduced cost.
For me, losing Larsson would be an absolute gut punch. I’d hate for the team to lose him.
It looks like the dominos are really starting to fall around the league with respect to player movement.
I’m sure more and more potentials are going to be cropping up over the next few days. I honestly can’t remember a time where there was going to be this much uncertainty with player movement and roster turnover for almost all of the teams around the league.
I imagine it’s both an uber stressful and exciting time to be a GM in the league.
Kassian +5th for Eberle.
Hall 5.5m*7
Holloway-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Benson-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Hall-Nuge-Eberle
Realistic? Probably not.
Would it be cool? Absolutely
I fully expect that we will sign Zach Hyman for $6 x 6. How much better is he than Joel Armia, who will likely sign for a max of $3.5 mill x 4?
Zach Hyman is way better – but that contract will be awful before the 3rd year has been completed.
A $6mx 6 for Hyman will most probably not age well. I like the player’s versatility in that he can (and will) play anywhere in the lineup. Would like to see Holland keep his powder dry to see what shakes loose unless Hyman (or similar) takes a team-friendly deal with the Oilers.
How do you think that would work with the team’s salary structure? Can they pay Hyman more than Nuge without Nuge getting his nose out of joint?
I think so (Hyman or whoever). But it would clearly need to be for multiple years less term.
Hyman 6*6 will be the new Lucic
Holland essentially said that he is willing to overpay a LW either in term or cap.
For me, that is an overpay in both.
I can see it happening.
In no world is Zach Hyman worth more than Nuge on a per year basis (at any term).
Hyman is a $4.5M player that will be overpaid (for term).
If we’re being fair, Hyman was pretty clearly the better player this past season.
I certainly agree Nuge is the ‘better player’, but there are worlds where Hyman has been better than Nuge.
Well, I did say “worth more”, not “better”.
Do we include Hyman’s 1 point in 7 playoff games in the analysis? As much heat as Nuge gets for his playoff performances, he was better than Hyman this year and in their playoff careers, by far.
As I said I definitely agree that Nuge is the better player. But you said “worth more at any term”. When I posted I was thinking of short term, and that Hyman could be worth more on a 2 or 3 or 4 year deal than Nuge is getting on his 8 year deal.
Whatever deal Hyman signs won’t look like this, but I’d be willing to sign him to 2 or 3, even 4 x $6M if he were willing. It likely still is an overpay, but relative to the other options that would be good/maybe value option IMO. (again, value relative to other UFAs, this year)
Many/most would be happy with Saad at $5M or $5.5M (presumably for 5 or 6 years?). If that’s the alternative I think Hyman at $6M x 3 or 4 would be better value. I’m just trying to be realistic about what these guys are going to get paid in a couple of weeks.
JMO, but Hyman is getting way more flack/way less respect than he deserves as a quality 1/2LW option (and this goes back even before there were rumours Holland is interested).
If KH lets Larsson walk, our right side D will not be very good. In fact below league average. We have to hope Bear returns to form and Papa Bouch lights it up. If those things don’t happen, pitchforks will come out. Larsson stabilizes the defense and is a big part of it’s success. If Holland signs Smith, that could prove very risky too at his age and being susceptible to injury in a longer season. The overpay for the Keith trade tells me something is coming together as planned. Oscar out for another season and maybe his career is a huge loss. I’m less optimistic about this season even in a weak division. How do we compete with teams like the Knights in the postseason? Miles of work to be done, hopefully the Keith trade is the only overpay this offseason. History tells us otherwise.
There’s a lot of work to do to make this into a decent roster. Without McDavid, it’s clearly a bottom 10 team in the NHL
Next year, if we return with Smith and Koskinen, our goaltending will be a lot worse than this year. You can’t count on Smith to repeat his year and management has no faith in Koskinen.
Our defence is worse than last year. We’ve essentially replaced Barrie with Keith, who is the same type of player (all offense but no defence) but a lessor version. And now we have Koekkoek, Russell and Lagesson competing for 3LD, when they should be your 7th and 8th defenceman.
We better hope Larsson signs as he needs to carry Keith on the second pair.
And we need 2 more top 6 forwards and our 3rd and 4th line are still well below average.
And we have incompetent management.
Just how bad do you think Keith is? And have you actually watched him play?
Barrie is better?
Larsson will have to carry him?
I understand people not liking the trade, but lets keep the hyperbole to a minimum.
He’s a #3LD who has been caved in defensively.
Well, he’s a 1/2LD who was caved defensively, leading you to conclude he should be a 3LD.
“If KH lets Larsson walk, our right side D will not be very good. In fact below league average.”
Wouldn’t you have to see who Holland replaces Larsson with before making that determination?
I don’t see Larsson not re-signing – it could happen but I think its just a matter of time.
If I am wrong then, of course, that $4M targeted for Larsson would need to go to a separate 2RD acquisition. I haven’t researched “who” but it would be a must.
More to the story in Minnesota.
https://www.startribune.com/wild-wanted-zach-parise-and-ryan-suter-gone/600077722/
After reading that article one would have to believe those same stories got around the league. Imagine two players treating the club like their own private fiefdom?
Yep…looks like they’re a couple of divas.
So from that story my take is that Parise & Suter have been behaving like jerks for years and the media knew it but never said anything.
I guess it isn’t just Edmonton where that happens.
That is a real evidence-free OBC-level hit piece on those guys. They may be jerks for all I know, but it’s pretty class-less to shoot someone in the back as they walk out the door. Ooooooo Parise likes to practice on the Minny side of the river – what an awful team-mate. Gross.