We are five years past the 2016 entry draft, meaning we can look closely at the five-year window that began with the 2012 selection. Did the Oilers get enough? Did the top end compensate enough for the later rounds? How does Edmonton’s haul compare to the other teams in Canada’s west?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: When will the Edmonton Oilers fully embrace analytics?
- New Jonathan Willis: How the 2021-22 Oilers mirror their coach’s best teams from the past
- DNB: Maxing out LTIR
- Lowetide: What might Oilers do if Kailer Yamamoto’s goal scoring slump continues?
- DNB: Oilers’ Mikko Koskinen much happier with family by his side again
- Lowetide: Is this Jay Woodcroft’s final year coaching the Bakersfield Condors?
- Lowetide: How could waivers impact Oilers’ roster decisions?
- New DNB: Duncan Keith’s decline, by the numbers and video
- Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and line chemistry
- New DNB: Oilers training camp invitees tell us what it’s like to face McDavid in practice
- Lowetide: Why Tyler Tullio’s skill set is a good match for the Oilers
- DNB: Oilers training camp observations
- Lowetide: Why Colton Sceviour could be an important addition for the Oilers
- DNB: Derek Ryan Q&A
- Jonathan Willis: How can the Oilers find a long-term solution in net?
- Lowetide: What will three outscoring lines do for the Oilers and Connor McDavid?
- DNB: Oilers training camp questions
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, in context
- DNB: The Oilers’ plan for prospect Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Filip Berglund, sleeper option for Edmonton’s defense
- DNB: Cooper Marody Q&A
- Lowetide: The Oilers and the Cooper Marody experiment are at a crossroads
- DNB: Warren Foegele Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers reasonable expectations for 2021-22: Goal differential
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2021-22: Goal scoring
- Lowetide: What should the Oilers expect from Cody Ceci in his first season?
- Lowetide: Projecting the 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers opening night lineup
- Lowetide: What should Oilers expect from Duncan Keith in his first season?
- Jonathan Willis: Tyler Benson, Devin Shore and the 4-year difference between a prospect and a has-been
The 2012 draft
The Winnipeg Jets had to wait until No. 8 overall to draft Jacob Trouba, but delivered the class of the group. Calgary went walkabout in the first round (Mark Jankowski) and Vancouver didn’t cash (Brendan Gaunce) but the loser in Round 1 was Edmonton. It’s a famous story now, but plenty of interference left the Oilers taking Nail Yakupov No. 1 overall. He was the right choice imo, but the organization was changing coaches and managers like they were the office water bottles in those days and Yak got lost in the flood. Edge: Winnipeg.
In rounds 2+, Edmonton delivered Jujhar Khaira and Erik Gustafsson, two players who have enjoyed careers of 250+ games. It isn’t close to Winnipeg, who drafted franchise goalie Connor Hellebuyck in the fifth round. Calgary added Brett Kulak, in the range with Khaira as an NHL player. Vancouver drafted Ben Hutton, who would be clear of Khaira, Kulak and Gustafsson but still in the range of complementary NHL player. Edge: Winnipeg.
The 2013 draft
The Calgary Flames (Sean Monahan), Edmonton Oilers (Darnell Nurse), Winnipeg Jets (Josh Morrissey) and Vancouver Canucks (Bo Horvat) all emerged as significant NHL players for their teams. Morrisey was chosen No. 13 overall, the latest of the four picks. Edge: Winnipeg.
Winnipeg added Andrew Copp in later rounds, as well as fringe players (Nic Petan, Tucker Poolman) later. Edmonton added Anton Slepyshev. Edge: Winnipeg.
The 2014 draft
Edmonton’s choice of Leon Draisaitl trumps Calgary (Sam Bennett), Winnipeg (Nik Ehlers) and Vancouver (Jake Virtanen). It’s not fair, especially for the Jets, but Draisaitl became a transcendent player and that’s not something anyone can argue. Edge: Edmonton.
Vancouver was the only team to score outside the first round in the 2014 draft, grabbing Thatcher Demko in the second round. Canucks also added Jared McCann with a late first. Edge: Vancouver.
The 2015 draft
Everyone got rich in the first round of the 2015 draft. Winnipeg picked up Kyle Connor, Vancouver grabbed Brock Boeser, and Calgary made a big trade for Dougie Hamilton. Edmonton won the lottery, and Connor McDavid was the prize. No credit, but acknowledgement of luck on a massive scale. Edge: Edmonton.
In later rounds, Winnipeg delivered Jack Roslovic, Mason Appleton and Jansen Harkins. Vancouver picked Adam Gaudette, Calgary delivered Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington and Andrew Mangiapane. Edmonton added Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and John Marino. Edge: Calgary.
The 2016 draft
The first round saw three great players drafted, Patrik Laine (Winnipeg), Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) and Matt Tkachuk (Calgary). I don’t know how they’ll end up, and Bruce McCurdy made a great comment in yesterday’s post comments about JP passing Laine. I hadn’t thought about it, but I think he’s right. Bruce said some time this year and that seems right. Edge: Calgary.
Winnipeg grabbed Logan Stanley, Edmonton picked Tyler Benson, Calgary had Dillon Dube and Adam Fox. Edge: Calgary.
Drafting 20 players
I decided to have a little fun and draft players 1-20 and see how many Oilers would land and where. Oilers do well but Winnipeg kills it. I don’t think you’d trade McDavid and Draisaitl for the Jets though. People, if you ever own a hockey team, please draft first overall as much as possible.
- Connor McDavid (EDM)
- Leon Draisaitl (EDM)
- Adam Fox (CAL)
- Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG)
- Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)
- Matt Tkachuk (CAL)
- Kyle Connor (WPG)
- Darnell Nurse (EDM)
- Josh Morrissey (WPG)
- Jacob Trouba (WPG)
- Patrik Laine (WPG)
- Brock Boeser (VAN)
- Andrew Mangiapane (CAL)
- Bo Horvat (VAN)
- Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM)
- Sean Monahan (CAL)
- Thatcher Demko (VAN)
- Dillon Dube (CAL)
- Sam Bennett (CAL)
- Ethan Bear (EDM)
I’m open to changing the list, let me know. I have to apologize for the crazy day, suspect we have figured it out but sincere apologies. We have so many people on the site it’s a difficult site to keep airborne. Thanks for dropping in, sorry we were closed.
Get Well Carey:
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
NHL/NHLPA announce Carey Price will be away from the team to voluntarily take part in the Player Assistance Program
This would be my top of the order:
The Next Tier:
The rest are somewhat interchangeable at the moment with some on their way down and some on the way up:
Hellebuyck has a recent Vezina in the most important position on a playoff team. Has to be near the top. Nurse has been steadily improving since he was drafted and just finished a monster year as a tough, goal-scoring minute muncher. I’d rather have him than Fox on my team going into a playoff run. Tkachuk’s style of play and skill also puts him in that “I-want-him-on-my-playoff-team” category, but maybe not enough to move him ahead of Fox’s skill.
Laine, Monohan, and Trouba would have been near the top at one time. Bennett, Puljujarvi are on their way up. The Canuck trio of Boeser, Horvat, and Demko may be on their way up too. Mangiapane and Dube are a bit fringy and will likely not move much. I’m looking forward to seeing what Bear can do now (cheering for him).
Tkachuk is 15-3-2-5 with 32 pims in the playoffs. His selfish attitude is the opposite of “I want him on my playoff team”.
Being a selfish piece of shit doesn’t make you good in the playoffs. It just makes you a selfish piece of shit.
Yup, I get it. I hate him and he does take some stupid penalties that cost his team, but he is also (when he’s doing it right) able to get the other team off their game ala Marchand and former players like Ciccarelli, Tikkanen, Linesman, Dale Hunter, Claude Lemieux, etc. All hated by their opposition but loved by their team. And the kid has skill. If he learns how to control his game better, he and his team will reap the benefits and that may come maturity.
No Marino?
Oh yeah, built it by copy-pasting Lowetide’s list. Missed Marino. I’d have him around Trouba maybe?
Mangiapane looked REAL good at the World Cup. Wasn’t he mvp? Fringe is not a descriptor id use.
Yeah, you’re probably right. It’s just that he’s 25 and he didn’t really make the NHL until his 23 and 24 year olds seasons and got about a half point per game. He doesn’t have a lot of room for growth. But, yeah, fringe is definitely overstating it.
I kind of hate to be the one saying this but…
Yamamoto has been ineffective for a long while. He’s easily knocked off the puck, the opposition takes delight in double teaming him, and he’s got a lot of growing(sic) to do as an NHLer if he is serious about remaining in the NHL.
This is not to take delight in his troubles. He’s got a zip to his game that, if he can figure out how to use it properly can help the team move forward but he’s half way behind the 8-ball now.
Agree hunter, let’s also enjoy the penalties that he draws while he is being mugged each game. Hard life for him but he can be useful for the right price.
Tippett’s in a contract year can’t see Yamo lasting more than a 6 pack of games on line 2 unless of course Yamo regains his form that he had earlier in his career.
this outage was by far worse than Facebook’s
so glad you’re “airborne!’
Facebook had an outage?
http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com/marches/2021-22
Less than 1 week left to open the season and with under 99 players registered for the season, and without more entries it becomes tedious…
and unless there is that Oilers front office offer still open for 750K in a paper bag…lol
Finally after many years Death March™ that could mean its finished.
Happy Winnipeg are out of the Division.
Very happy Calgary are in the Division.
The Jets’ main issue was their defensive group and, while I’m not a big Schmidt fan, his addition along with Dillon are substantial – that is a good team.
The flames, well, acquiring guys to play them above the current levels of ability (Coleman 3rd line to 1st line, Zadarov to top pairing and Gubrandson, well, to the NHL), as the fan of a rival, I’m all for it.
Zadorov is not playing top pairing.
Calgary’s top pairing is Hanifin and Tanev.
Methinks Sam Bennett will live to haunt Calgary’s Flames for a very long time.
While that top pairing sounds solid, the Flames team as a whole reminds me a lot of the days when Edmonton routinely got pummeled by that Dallas Stars juggernaut.
They hopefully finish high enough to miss the playoffs by a whisker, then draft accordingly low in the 10-15 range that drives the fans insane.
They tried him there but he looked worse than Podkolzin in preseason. Now they’ll play him on the second pairing where he will still look like crap.
And just like that, Flames tie the game 2-2 while being outshot 9-26.
YET
8 Darnell Nurse (EDM)
9 Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Explain?
I gave Winnipeg the drafting edge because they grabbed Morrissey No. 13 overall, whereas Nurse went No. 7 overall.
I was about to ask the same question, but this is a good answer.
Josh Morrissey was absolute crap last year though
He looked okay in the first round of the playoffs last year.
Huh, he was pretty bad. Last 2 years really.
I would not trade nurse for Morrissey even with a good add coming from their side
No, me either. Still, I didn’t realize at all how bad Morrissey has been. His (relative) numbers are as bad/worse than Keith’s over the past 2 seasons.
Who you play with is a huge factor.
Clearly. Do you mean Keith or Morrissey?
Morrisey.
Morrissey’s most common D partners:
Poolman (485)
DeMelo (235)
Boileau (118)
Pionk (83)
Keith’s most common D partners:
Mitchell (275)
Boqvist (221)
Murphy (178)
Kalynuk (85)
Who you play with is a huge factor.
Yeah and Winnipeg’s great forward Corp was stuck playing with Morrissey
and somehow he gets top pp minutes over Pionk
Yeah. And Nurse played the last two years against top opposition with Barrie and rookie Bear
Thrilled Edmonton are out of the Jets Division.
Bring on the Canucks, Flames and Dallas Eakins’ Ducks.
IMO the team plays a big factor in our evaluation of dmen. Schmidt looked great in Vegas and not so good in Vancouver. I think he will look much better in Winnipeg this year. The same goes for Keith. He will look better in Edmonton. But geez, 38 is really old for the nhl.
Part of me was wondering if Tip may play McLeod on the wing but, when asked about that today, it sounded like he really sees him as a center.
Also, when asked about Perlini playing the right wing, his response was that he has done so in his career but Tip thinks he’s better on the left side.
I was wondering about a 4th line of McLeod, Shore and Perlini but it doesn’t sound like that would be an option for Tip to start.
Where can I find Tippett talking from today? It’s not on the Oilers site.
Youtube
Thank you.
I didn’t realize they posted availabilities there but not on the Oilers site.
They usually post on both (some time a time delay) but I guess this on is only on twitter (which is odd – generally if its only on one, its on the website).
Good to know. I generally only check the website, I thought I might need to change my habit if I’m missing stuff, but it sounds like this is an anomaly.
Oilers twitter.
He hinted we just might see that lineup, only with Shire at wing and McLeod as centre. Though he did it with a bit of a wink, so who knows.
Would love to try this out….Size And Speed on the 4th line.
Kyle Turris does not fit.
Tippett said he’d looking for more scoring from the 4th line – in that role, Kyle Turris does fit (historically and, as per play this exhibition season).
If Tippet wants the Oilers to be scored on then Turris is his man. 5v5 last season Turris delivered at an awesome rate of -2.31 goals per 60.
Yup, Turris was terrible last season.
Its a new season and he has looked like a much stronger player so far.
Low bar!?
The question – as has been discussed quite a bit – is how much of that was a covid hangover.
Turris makes sense as a 13th or 14th forward at his cap hit and assuming he continues his preseason play.
In reality how much ice time will a fourth line get given the amount of ice time for Draisaitl and McDavid’s lines. With TV t8me outs etc the reality is most team’s rely on three lines. In today’s game for five on five play a fourth line is like a third testicle!
It has been 5 yrs since JP been drafted. Now let us see where each player is over the next 5. For starters, I would say Jesse has been the player that smiles the most and over the next 5 years easier to coach than the ones drafted above and around him.
Jesse’s smile is infectious. Even bison love his smile.
They’re so nice.
Are you suggesting that my real name is “Bruce McCurdy”? I’ve been called worse by better.
Are we in an episode of Gunsmoke? 🙂
You go by many names, but I’ve always known you as Baba Yaga.
So far JP looks improved beyond most expectations.
Laine however has that super portfolio of scoring goals.
Advantage Laine.
Value is a combination of cap hit and productivity. Portfolio may get you payed but guarantees nothing. JP in my opinion holds more value with an increasingly higher ceiling.
Laine is coming off a pretty rough season though. It’s too soon to say that it’s a trend but check out these numbers:
https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8479344&p2=8479339&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
He’s just not going to the High Danger areas, his iHDCF/60 was DEAD LAST among 415 forwards to play at least 250 minutes at 5v5 last year.
His on-ice numbers tell much the same story:
https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=r&p1=8479344&p2=8479339&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
I agree that his history is alluring as he posted massive goal numbers while Jesse languished, but right now, today Jesse is the better player and it’s not close. And that’s BEFORE talking contract…
Yeah, it wasn’t me who said that.
Everyone wish they were Bruce McCurdy but there can be only one.
Flames looking pretty poor so far.
I’m watching the football game but I expect Winnipeg to make a lot of teams look pretty poor this year. That is a very good team imo.
But, but it’s just preseason phhht (according to Darrel) Total no hitter…..
Sitter out of touch with reality
Watching MLB national league wild card game 🙂
I gotta say the whole high sticking the puck thing, not the penalty, is a pretty useless rule. What’s the point?
I think we are the ones who should be doing the thanking. I hope this place didn’t ruin your whole day getting it back up and running.
If true what a bum bet:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/ap-source-nhl-investigating-evander-kane-fake-vaccine-card/
If true, that is what- like strike 6??!
Evander Kane doing something selfish and ill-advised? I am shocked, I tell you. SHOCKED.
(Ron Howard Narration: In fact, he wasn’t shocked at all)
Reading the sports headlines too quickly this morning I was wondering why Xavier Bourgault had contributed a 2 run homer to the elimination of the Ysnkees #prospectroundup
So many times i wanted to express those sentiments, but didn’t want to appear late to the party.
Byfield out indefinitely with a fractured ankle.
Tough blow for the youngster.
Given the best center depth in, maybe, the history of the league, the Kings should be fine but gotta feel for the kid.
You talking about the Kings centre depth reminds me of ALL the times you told us Benson, McLeod and Marody were surefire bets.
I never once said anything along those lines – that is a 100% made up lie – you are not a good person.
You’re the fella running telling everyone Colorado is playing hockey in a way that no one else has ever played before. How’s that top 4 defender Bison Roastbelly doing?
Did you not say hughes going to win the Norris this past season and some guy name Brogan Rafferty was NHL ready and one of the best Dman
Nope.
It was Valimaki that was going to win the Calder and Rafferty was a lock 2nd pairing d-man (and he wouldn’t trade him for Bouchard or Bear).
Said Valimaki would be a Calder candidate…he had a below average season.
Also said Rafferty’s upside was second pairing D… same as Bouchard…one of them may make it.
Stop making things up.
You obviously didn’t reread your work before you posted this defense. None of these 3 sentences reflect well on you in any way.
It’s pretty sad how you went from hyping up Brogan, to saying it was all just a joke, to defending your initial hype job. People call you a troll but, pretty sure you are just a bad poster.
liar
lies
Just re-posting from the earlier thread as its pertinent for tomorrow night’s game and has updated on Yamamoto and Smith and Russell:
Lots of criticism of Dave Tippett online with his likely deployment for tomorrow night’s game. Personally, I think its fantastic.
I believe that playing McDavid/Drai together tomorrow night (with Jesse) is mostly to to get some information on a 2nd line in behind and to see if Nuge and Hyman can drive a real 2nd line. McDavid and Drai are going to play together, mostly situational I would think, but likely for stretches here and. A major key to the season is finding some depth in behind them when there is a load up.
With Yamo being shut down for a few days with a head issue…… Turris is getting the shot with Nuge/Hyman. I am just fine with this as well.
For one, Turris has legit offensive skill, can help Nuge with faceoffs and, of course, has played well offensively in camp. No, he can’t fill Yamamoto’s shoes as a 2-way player on the line but I’m fine with him getting an at bat there in camp.
More than anything, to me, it shows that Tip doesn’t feel Kass is the primary fill-in option at 2RW which is huge. Maybe its an acknowledgement of his not so great 2-way play or perhaps an acknowledgement that he’s also had a meh camp.
In any event, I’m on board with tomorrow’s lineup.
Also, Smith starts and Russell plays with Bouch.
Never mind Dube and Bennett who will thrive in Florida.
I wanted the Oilers to trade for Bennet for several years as he languished in Calgary. No idea if they tried or not but he always struck me as a great ‘buy low’ guy.
15 points in 10 games in Florida..could go supernova on a stacked team.
Out of all the Flames I hated Bennet the most and especially come playoff time. The man plays on the edge to bad the Oilers didn’t pick him up in a three way deal with Florida.
Not sure what your response has to do with anything OP said. I guess just a stupid reflex by a silly old man.
Turris gets a chance to play with top 6 line mates; Benson has not. Hmm.
Anton Lander killed it in the AHL and then the KHL. He was also fantastic in the 2015’ish world championships. Yet in the NHL he gets 4th line mates and, unsurprisingly, gets about as much done as Hemsky would have in the same situation. I can see Benson following a similar career trajectory. Not saying either player would have succeeded in the Top 6 but it would have been nice to know.
P.S. The Oilers have done well in recent years drafting D, but F selected outside the first round – zilch! Benson and McLeod, both high second round picks, look to be joining a long list of Fails.
Lander and Benson have something in common, and it isn’t missed opportunity.
The Oilers don’t have a spot open in the top 9 LW, let alone the top 6 (yes I know Hyman and Foegle can play the other side but that’s not how the coach wants to deploy them to start the year) nor an injury.
As of now, there incumbent 2RW is not producing and is also banged up – hence the opportunity for Turris, a right side player.
If Hyman or Nuge were banged up, we’d likely see Perlini/Benson get the chance.
I think we are VERY far from calling McLeod a fail. I think his floor is a 4C/PK guy and that’s not terrible for drafting outside the first round. As of now, only 7 other 2nd rounders from 2018 have played in the NHL.
Or they could just get a better player on the waiver wire or in free agency.
Quiet, adults talking hockey.
If you’re playing McDavid and Drai together, JP should be on the second line.
I don’t necessarily disagree but that is just one of various options for deployment. Recall how darn good Hyman was away from the superstars against the Oilers in the famous 3-game set last season.
Its tough to put Puljujarvi ahead of the likes of Monohan and even Demko. I anticipate Jesse will wave at Monhohan as he blows by his this season but is he there yet?
Somewhere, someplace, there are underpants getting itchy.
That said, Laine and Trouba are WAY too high. This isn’t 2018 anymore!
LT is back. I can now rest easier.
Hey, I’ve tried all day and I finally gained access. Huzzah.
Woohoo