Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody. Photo by Mark Williams
This is the final time we’ll be able to discuss several current Oilers as being part of the organization. There will be trades, and there are some talented free agents (restricted and unrestricted) who may not be back. If you had to place them in order of future value, where would you rank Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody?
The Oilers need to add several pieces this summer, and not all of them are going to be $5M AAV. Here are 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season @TheAthleticNHLhttps://t.co/1r0mhH3lis
DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
RANKING THE FREE AGENTS
LW Evander Kane (43 games, 22-17-39) (2.2 pts-60 five-on-five) (63.9 Goal Share five-on-five). A major lift to the team when he arrived mid-season and Kane will (and should) cash in with a lucrative contract with somone. His goal-scoring exploits in Edmonton work out to 42 per 82 games, but there’s no guarantee that kind of urgency will return on a long-term deal. I think Holland will move heaven and earth and Barrie to get him, but am still betting on another team landing Kane. UFA
RW Jesse Puljujarvi (65 games, 14-22-36) (1.62 pts-60 five-on-five) (64.6 Goal Share five-on-five). He is likely to be the more durable of the young RFA’s, and owns the most potential among the top group. Probably a complementary offensive player, there is more than enough evidence that he can help the finishers spend more time attacking. RFA
RW Kailer Yamamoto (81 games, 20-21-41) (1.48 pts-60 five-on-five) (48.7 Goal Share five-on-five). He’s a personal favourite and I do think he is figuring out how to stay in the lineup now. Still, there’s enough of a worry for me to rank him behind the Finn (another personal favourite). It’s important to note both of these men were extremely valuable when they were being paid less than $1.5 million. Salary increases mean higher cap, and less value from both men. RFA
LC Ryan McLeod (71 games, 9-12-21) (1.29 pts-60 five-on-five) (48.1 Goal Share five-on-five). He began the season well behind the two wingers, but ended it in the conversation with JP and KY. He’s a center, fast, took on more chores as the season went along, and now appears to be a strong option for No. 3 center on the 2022-23 Oilers. If he can add a little offense, we’ll be talking about a feature player (No. 3 center) with a long career ahead of him. RFA
LD Brett Kulak (18 games, 2-6-8) (1.32 pts-60 five-on-five) (57.1 Goal Share five-on-five). He was a huge help for the Oilers and a key addition at the trade deadline. There is talk of signing him long term, it would be difficult to argue against the idea. What an impressive homecoming. UFA
RW Cooper Marody (1 game, 0-1-1). I remain flummoxed by the lack of opportunity extended this player during his time with the Oilers, but he’s a group 6 UFA this summer and a good guess has him signing with a team that needs inexpensive skill (Pittsburgh?). He can play based on his AHL career, I’d bet money on it. UFA
LW Tyler Benson (29 games, 1-1-2) (0.50 pts-60 five-on-five) (35.3 Goal Share five-on-five). We know he has fine passing skills, and that he didn’t use them enough when on the ice in 2021-22. He may not get another 29-game audition, but if he does, it’s imperative Benson move the needly offensively. He has played 36 NHL games in his career, and it’s possible those 36 games represent the bulk of his career. He’ll have to work for his next NHL chance. RFA
LW Brendan Perlini (23 games, 4-1-5) (1.6 pts-60 five-on-five) (42.9 Goal Share five-on-five). I liked him, he scored goals more often than the average depth player. You can see why he lives most of his life outside the NHL, but in a “hey, Ryan Jones can score goals” kind of way a guy like Perlini comes in handy as a spot starter. He is RFA.
LD Kris Russell (31 games, 2-7-9) (1.18 pts-60 five-on-five) (55.6 Goal Share five-on-five). I always liked him more than the math folks, who aren’t fond of pure defenders (and I understand why). He’s likely to retire based on usage and I have enjoyed his Oilers career. Wish there were more who felt the same way. UFA
RW Josh Archibald (8 games, 0-1-1) (1.00 pts-60 five-on-five) (33.3 Goal Share five-on-five). An unusual season derailed by illness, Archibald lost his foothold on an NHL job. A new coach coming in and what appears to be an overhaul at his position mean a downbeat beginning to summer for the veteran. He’s had to fight for everything that has come his way and there may be an NHL job out there somewhere. UFA
RW Kyle Turris (23 games, 1-3-4) (1.3 pts-60 five-on-five) (44.3 Goal Share five-on-five). I always liked Turris, so watching him being miscast as a No. 3 center was no fun, and it wasn’t much better on the wing. I think he, and the NHL, have combined to make a decision. UFA
RW Colton Sceviour (35 games, 2-3-5) (0.88 pts-60 five-on-five) (37.5 Goal Share five-on-five). He was a regular (or close) under Dave Tippett, but sent away when Woodcroft arrived. Sceviour was useful because Tippett’s fourth line needed PK men. The new coach took a different route. UFA
LC Derick Brassard (15 games, 2-1-3) (1.24 pts-60 five-on-five) (33.3 Goal Share five-on-five). The veteran showed shockingly little in his time with Edmonton, playing in just one playoff game. UFA
RD Filip Berglund (no NHL). He’s off to Örebro HK in the SHL and my bet is he plays for several more years as a productive two-way defenseman. He played 53 games in the AHL, zero goals, six points and an even strength goal differential of 32-28 (52.5 percent). Berglund didn’t get much special teams opportunity (less than 30 seconds combined based on our friend Eric Rodgers estimates). If I had a criticism, it would be the young man cam over to North American about three years too late. RFA
LW Ostap Safin (no NHL). We have reached the point in the play where the main plot (a significant injury) pierces the heart of the hero’s dream and the audience is left with a broken heart. If it’s a musical, some gorgeous melody from Richard Rodgers fills the air, and the words of Lorenz Hart or Oscar Hammerstein would bring a tear and some closure to the broken main character. Safin has shown flashes, and my guess is he’ll be a highly productive player in a European league. He never did get a chance to show us what he could bring. RFA
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
These are busy days, because all hell can break loose at any time. TSN1260, 10-2 today. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us at 10:20, and we’ll have plenty of Oilers and draft talk. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
With Kuemper available now, any contract negotiations will likely be tricky with regards to term. He’s 32. He’s not 30 like Campbell or 27 like Husso. How high can Oilers go with their cap situation to make a play? Wash needs older starter, so does Detroit, and Buffalo.
Mister Georgex, I look forward to your posts, always educational and thought provoking, thank you.
OriginalPouzar
July 7, 2022 5:28 am
Post Gorilla trekking, 5 hour drive out of Bwindi forest gives me a chance to catch up on Holland’s media avail and spot on Gregor from yesterday which is much better then just reading quotes. A couple of things additional for me:
1) He made a point of mentioning that contracts signed this year will effect cap available in the next few years and specifically mentioned needing to keep money for Bouch and projecting his future cap hit. Not sure if that means he may try and get the extension in advance but Good to hear in any event.
2) While the goalie acquisition is likely via free agency, he has had conversations on trades and will continue to do so. We all know I’m on board with a trade given the risk of all free agents with projected contracts.
Bling
July 6, 2022 8:57 pm
Great post and I’d add, JP is already elite defensively. So he really doesn’t have to score that much to be a very, very important piece. You could have him shadowing a team’s best player while 97 makes hay.
The guy on that list I liken him to would be a Danault, but on the wing. Kings almost knocked out the Oilers because of Danault’s handiwork. These guys do not grow on trees.
WOWYs not being predictive is, IIRC, your grievance against tracking EV scoring instead of total points. I think where we disagree is, just because something isn’t predictive doesn’t make it completely useless. I don’t have any reason to expect JP + 97 to put up a near 70% goal share next season, but the fact that 97 was really only marginally good goal share wise away from JP means something to me.
I look at JP as a guy who already scores at a top 6 rate at evens, is big, wins battles, is already elite defensively, and could pop with better finishing ability, AND seems to make his teammates better. Will it happen? No clue. Could it all be a mirage, luck, smoke and mirrors? Maybe.
Btw, if you thought WOWYs with two players is too small a sample size, wait til you see Redbird’s post below using Puljujarvi, Keith, and McDavid.
I think we agree on a lot. I totally agree CMD is the best, and I agree he doesn’t *need* a specific line mate to succeed. Except for:
McDavid could put up 150 points and what if his goal share is between, say, 50 and 55? Versus, say, 55+ or 60+? McDavid is amazing, but he can’t drive a goal share that high all by himself. We know that, because in the past he’s had mediocre linemates and he hasn’t hit those sensational heights. His own performance has always been spectacular.
You say WOWY doesn’t correlate on a year-to-year basis on average partly because on average everything changes, partly because of SS. But then the question arises: how do you explain it? Was JP extraordinarily lucky? On every single line he played on? For an entire season?
My other issue with “predictive value” is that player development and decline isn’t a static process either. That’s to say nothing of injury, luck, opportunity, etc. I will totally cede to you that point that WOWY on average is not predictive. But I disagree on your conclusion that it means nothing.
My issue with your philosophy is you are shopping in the expensive aisle if you are going by what is “predictive.” It’s a flat cap world. You need to find some guys who are undervalued, and I suspect by using some of these advanced stats with real world observation, one could nail down an undervalued player.
I’m convinced JP is one.
Will he score? Agree, he is nowhere near elite in terms of production. That said, I showed awhile back that even with marginal improvement in shooting %, JP can very easily be a first line caliber forward.
You would think its possible for a GM to let a player rot unless he is prepared to play ball with the team. Ever since Lowe was buffaloed into giving Pronger away it’s felt like the players have all of the power, which clearly they aren’t supposed to have.
Not talking about destroying anyones career here.
If JP wants to play for another team then that’s fine, but it need not screw the Oilers. Or does it?
That’s been my worry for a little while now that the players will turn this into an NBA type situation. Player contracts mean nothing, trade demands need to be heeded, and the teams are essentially beholden to a bunch of mercenaries.
And if you are, I am so glad to see that the treatments worked!
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 6:54 pm
Holland says the goalie is most likely a free agent acquisition. No surprise, and the signing as opposed to trade is Holland’s MO, but I’m disappointed.
Holland also says there is going to be more change than normal and at least one of the young D will be on the team.
He could be referring to Broberg for a more permanent role on the big club.
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 6:53 pm
Sammy is currently In Edmonton and DNB did some digging and Petrov is in Russia but is planning to be in development camp on Sat. I don’t think CSKA holds Petrov’s rights.
Harpers Hair
July 6, 2022 6:22 pm
Andy Strickland on Twitter.
Evander Kane talks with #Oilers haven’t gotten to close to what he’s hoping to get. Would you give Kane 6-7 years at $6-7 mill? Several teams with interest.
Andy Strickland also thinks Zadorov is looking for a 4 year deal in the mid to upper 4’s.
This for a 3rd pair D who made $3.75 MM last season. I guess he is hoping no one watched the Battle of Alberta.
What any player is hoping to get and what they realistically get are two different things. Maybe someone pays that for Zadorov, but my goodness is Ceci a bargain if that is the market for Zadorov. I don’t think Kane gets that either, but there is always a chance.
No, would not give Kane 6 x$6 mil. Max 3, maybe 4 year term. Hard to guage interest in him as he is not a free agent yet. Frankly I cant see other teams wanting to go long term on him.
“several teams interested” Yet I have not heard a single team interested except Oilers. Make cap low enough and term short enough that he’s back in the value isle, then sure, teams are interested.
Artemi Panarin is 5″11″ and 170 lbs and makes $11 million. Alex DeBrincat is 5″7″ and 165 lbs. His QO is $9 million. Patrick Kane is 5″10 170 lbs. and makes $10.5 million. Nikita Kucherov is 5″11, 180 lbs. and makes $9.5 Million (and took a substantial discoun). None of these smallish wingers are versatile – all they all do is score – a lot.
(In an Elmer Fudd voice) … My widdle heart bweeds for them… it bweeds I tell ya.
Bling
July 6, 2022 4:04 pm
The crew that is okay with trading JP should offer up solutions on how to get 97 up to a near 70% goal share without him. These WOWY numbers have been posted by WG and DK and others on twitter (hat tip to all them) but let’s go through them.
97 w 13: 69% GF
97 wo 13: 53% GF
13 wo 97: 57% GF
JP with a higher goal share away from McDavid than McDavid away from JP.
How about this:
Yamo w 97: 54% GF (okay)
97 wo Yamo: 62% GF (hmmm)
Yamo wo 97: 46% GF
How about this:
Hyman w 97: 59% GF
97 wo Hyman: 60% GF
Hyman wo 97: 38% GF (woof)
How about this:
Nuge w 97: 60% GF
97 wo Nuge: 59% GF
Nuge wo 97: 52% GF
So. Jesse wants to play in the top six. McDavid is *far* more effective with him than without him (not close). The guy “ahead” of him on the depth chart in Yamo can’t get to 50% GF without the best player in the world. The other guy “ahead” of him in the depth chart in Hyman can’t get to 40% GF (!!!) without him.
None of this makes any sense. JP is right to be pissed — he IS better than these guys. They should outplay him!
Btw: By this analysis, Nugent-Hopkins is in a different (better) league than KY and Hyman.
Wait. I’ve often said this team has one true top line winger (excluding Draisaitl):
Kane w 97: 64% GF
97 wo Kane: 57% GF
Kane wo 97: 64% GF (!!)
The only winger who matches JP’s profile is Evander Kane.
Evander Kane is a premier first line winger. I’ve said it since the rumours of him signing came about. I humbly propose to you that JP is also a first line winger. He may do it differently, but they’re both the same, and both men should be brought back.
I would go long on JP and 3 years with Kane. JP will pop soon. Get in on the ground floor!
Just make sure that Keith doesn’t retire then and play him with Connor. Keith had an 80% goal share with McDavid, which included a 67% goal share when Jesse joined them and an 89% goal share when Duncan and Connor played without Keith. Clearly Jesse was a drag on the performance the wonder-duo that was McDavid/Keith.
I am being facetious, but the above data is real. Kinda hard to argue using the data you’ve provided that to retain Jesse is a no brainer keeper, while hoping that Keith retires.
Jesse without Keith or McDavid – 62.5% goal share
Keith without Jesse or McDavid – 48% goal share
McDavid without Jesse or Keith – 41% goal share
This McDavid guy is being propped up by Jesse and Keith, what’s the story with that?
The truth is I don’t have the answers. But I can say with a fair amount of confidence, with all due respect, neither does WG nor, for damn sure, does DK. The Oilers have every piece of data and information that either of these guys has access to and multiples more.
That data doesn’t really surprise me. McDavid’s goal share away from Puljujarvi was very ordinary. Interesting that it’s even lower without Keith, but I suspect those would be tougher minutes (Nurse would almost always draw the tougher matchup).
I think what you’re arguing is interesting, but I do not think that it says Puljujarvi is not a top 6 winger.
I should add that you are doing WOWYs with 3 players. Smaller sample sizes and noisier. Oh and you’re making comparisons with 2 forwards and 1 D. Two of the forwards played on the first line and the D played second pair under Tippett and was further sheltered under Woodcroft.
It’s a completely disingenuous comparison, but fill your boots, appears the community agrees.
Okay, but we also know that Tippett gave Nurse the bulk of the tough minutes and then Woodward doubled down on that strategy. Ergo, Keith would play softer minutes with 97, whereas JP would not.
There’s also the matter of JP not competing with Keith for ice time, but rather with Hyman/Yamo and, to a lesser extent, Nuge and Kane (who play the opposite wing).
Can’t dispute the numbers, but what about zone starts? I might be wrong, but I can recall something to the affect that JP had a very high rate of OZ starts. I wouldn’t trade JP though, unless he wants out.
I like Puljujarvi as a player and would not be looking to trade him.
These numbers are a snapshot though. If you look at the same numbers for last season, or this season’s playoffs, McDavid was better without Puljujarvi than with him.
Redbird has done a nice job illustrating the fallacy of following numbers like these too closely. Jesse is helping out there, but the numbers you (or WG, or DK) posted overstate his impact by a wide margin IMO.
Puljujarvi was a better player this season compared to last. Playoffs he was not himself, no question, and it turned out was playing injured after having come back from some illness late in the regular season.
I don’t agree with the nihilist interpretation that because there is something we don’t understand in the numbers, that we should throw them away. To each their own.
As for what redbird is saying, my theory is above. Comparing Keith and Puljujarvi is not an apples to apples comparison. Puljujarvi plays on a line with McDavid; Keith does not. These are different things. I suspect Keith gets softer ice when on with 97 as compared to, say, Nurse.
I didn’t say throw away the numbers. Not at all. I’m saying don’t take them at 100% face value.
The reasons being:
1) a larger sample size considerably weakens the effect you’re looking at
2) on ice measures of player performance are not very reproducible in general. That is, a given players GF%, xGF%, SF%, etc, does not correlate very well year over year.
(Georgexs alludes to point #2 in his post this evening, but has shown it much more thoroughly and convincingly here in the past).
So when I say “Jesse is helping out there,”, I mean that he really does seem to be improving team performance when he’s on the ice.
And when I say “but the numbers you … posted overstate his impact by a wide margin”, I mean that his impact on team performance is very unlikely to remain as strong as it was this regular season, even if there may be a real positive effect there.
So no, you don’t lock him up long term as the guy who’s the key to McDavid having a 70% GF% every year.
To what Redbird was saying, I believe what was intended was to show that the numbers and method used to pump Puljujarvi’s tires as a play driver can often produce unreliable results (with Keith used as an example near and dear to your heart, who you clearly do not value).
winchester
July 6, 2022 3:56 pm
Kane – Connor – Necas
Hyman – Leon – Yamo
McLeod – Nuge – Kessel
Holloway – Ryan – Hoglander
Nurse – Bouchard
Chychrun – Ceci
Kulak – Broberg
Husso
Skinner
Technically possible if we could delay signing Kane until LTIR for Klefbom and Smith opens up. Acquisition costs pretty high. But a hell of a roster to ponder.
Must be three 40 goal scorers here
And another four 20 goal scorers
Good mix on defense
Bling
July 6, 2022 3:39 pm
Did you know Jere Lehtinen topped 50 points just twice in his career (14 seasons)? Heck of a player, still, and gave opposing top line players nightmares.
Did you know that Michael Peca topped 50 points just twice in his career (11 seasons)? Heck of a player, still, and gave opposing top line players nightmares.
McDavid was 39-35 away from JP and 34-15 with JP. A 52% goal share from your top line C is middling; a 69% goal share is otherworldly and what a McDavid centred line *should* be putting up (although even that is maybe too high).
Takeaway: Puljujarvi doesn’t have to score that much more to be *extremely* valuable. He already is.
Holland wants to find a similar player to JP, in terms of growth. Good luck Ken!
Such is the harshness when reality puts it’s foot down
LadiesloveSmid
July 6, 2022 3:30 pm
Has anyone compared Jesse to Benoit Pouliot? Reminds me of Pouliot – in that he was a high draft pick who settled in to be a really effective middle 6 forward. Often maligned for taking too many penalties – instead of low finishing ability.
I think Keith will retire. Playing for 1.5 mil (half taxed) to spend another half year away from your kid in a season in which you’ll have Kulak/Broberg and maybe Niemelainen pushing you for ice. You may have to travel just to sit.
DeBrusk had a pretty tumultuous ride with the Bruins that culminated in his trade request being rescinded.
The reality for JP — and really, his agent should be telling him this — is that his earning potential is considerably higher playing a middle six role here than potentially being traded to a Siberia-like destination where he will be forced to be a main option offensively. Injuries are inevitable; he will get his top 6 ice and special teams time.
There’s a good chance Holland asked about this possibility while making the trade deal
dessert1111
July 6, 2022 3:03 pm
I’d like to see the top 5 in LT’s list back and also Benson and Russell, who’d I’d move up to 6 and 7. Wouldn’t mind Marody or Sceviour for call up depth but can’t see Marody wanting to stay. Wouldn’t mind Archibald for call up depth either but I imagine he gets a roster spot somewhere.
An already elite (defensively) winger with 4 OV pedigree for a guy who couldn’t score in the A. Lol.
The Oilers are forever interested in things that have nothing to do with winning. Meanwhile, they obsess over big power forwards and trade the one guy they have that could be a real effective one.
I know OP will lecture me about criticizing moves that haven’t been made. Then it’ll be made and he’ll say give the guy a chance. Then he’ll say, jeez imagine he retires? 😉
I’m no Holland fan, but there’s no way this happens. A second rounder would be more valuable.
DevilsLettuce
July 6, 2022 1:58 pm
Will Russia allow Ovi to continue chasing the record?
If multiple players are barred from leaving Russia, will the NHL allow the ones that are able to leave play? while others are barred from their opportunities?
Does Holland spend all the late picks on Russians? Detroit was built off of it.
I brought this up three months ago and was promptly destroyed here…..
So some Russians playing in the NHL are US citizens (Malkin) and will have no problems but those trying to come over, and that includes this draft class could have difficulties. Especially if Russia institutes the draft. That is why they are trying to get these counterfeit certificates indicating they are exempt, or something to that end.
Ovi is Putin’s buddy and an old man, I doubt he has a problem from the Russian end. The US on the other hand may not grant work visas……
I remember someone suggesting the CHL should bar Russian kids. I don’t remember a conversation about Russia banning players from coming here.
leadfarmer
July 6, 2022 1:40 pm
Curious how much Russian players drop in the draft. With some ambiguity about Kaprizov whereabouts (may just be to protect his family) teams may shy about drafting Russians in case they become cannon fodder
AMD
July 6, 2022 1:36 pm
Sounds like Oilers are tipping their hand. Schaefer If he’s not there at 29 seems like they will trade down
That is an excellent movie. Possibly the best at conveying a claustrophobic environment ever made. Peterson hasn’t been able to reach the same heights since but that film is still a great legacy.
winchester
July 6, 2022 1:33 pm
In searching for undervalued players with upside, I still like Nils Hoglander.
Hes not big, but he handles himself well, young, high motor, high puck skills. Fallen out of favor with new coach. 1.2M this year then RFA
I think he is the type of target Oilers should be looking at to add skill to middle six.
I heard a lot from BC news that said Nils only likes the O zone. If he was like Lekhonen no problem
Munny 2.0
July 6, 2022 1:19 pm
Staples making a great point…
There are a lot of NHL teams that are predicated on “advanced stats” as a resource in the organization. If Pujo actually looks good by analytics, the market for his services should be very healthy. And it doesn’t appear to be the case.
(Once again, I will raise the point that there is a difference now between “advanced stats” and “public stats”. We the public, are no longer the holders of the most advanced information, sadly.)
I am speaking out of my ass, but I get the feeling there are organizations who are just getting analytics departments because they feel they should have them, but the GMs still don’t know how to use them properly, or don’t want to depend on them to make decisions and would rather do it their way (using the ol’ gut or scouts who seen a player good).
For example, I remember reading a lot about how great of an analytics team Seattle assembled and how “cutting edge” it was and with that + weaponized cap space, they would become Vegas 2.0. An unstoppable force in a position to challenge for a cup or 10.
And.. well.. look at how they assembled their team.
And I don’t think it’s the analytic’s department who is to blame for that.
True dat. But there are other more established departments that are lauded by the public stats community. Yet they don’t seem to value the player as high as the community does.
Who are the teams that have established analytics departments who we are confident are being used to make player acquisitions that are being lauded?
I know I have heard over the last few years that teams have acquired analytics folk or built out their departments, but then nothing much seems to happen with the team’s turnaround (on the surface that I can see at least).
I have a feeling the list isn’t very long.
Also, we only know what teams may have expressed interest based on the GMs reaching out.
I wonder how many analytics departments are pushing to entertain JP but the GM hasn’t because
All valid questions, for sure. It’s Staples’s point, not really mine. But I certainly agree and have said before in different words, that NHL analytics is still a very young and likely heterogeneous group finding it’s way. Who really can say what is happening under the hood across the League?
The other thing is, from Holly’s point of view, he needs a team with an analytics dept that values JP, but also has a team need for him AND also has something Holland himself desires in return. A trade match.
Still I thought it was a bit of creative thinking from Staples and probably there’s some grains of truth in it, but how much is unknown.
Ron Francis lost his previous GM job for being too ponderous and that perhaps played a role in the expansion draft.
Likely his biggest mistake was the goaltenders he invested heavily in but there is some hope for a bounce back there if Seattle gets its defensive house in order.
Having said that, Seattle has one 1st, four 2nd, and seven additional picks in the upcoming draft as well as a total of 13 picks in the 2023 draft.
With $23 million in cap space this offseason Francis has a second chance to build a competitive roster.
There is an excellent chance they pick a stud defenseman (Simon Nemec?, although Kevin Korchinski played in their backyard) in tomorrow’s draft.
With Matty Beniers already on board (9P in 10 NHL GP) they are positioned to improve significantly
Why. Those teams can offer sheet Puljujarvi at the 2nd round draft pick compensation level at a number that will be painful for Holland to match.
1 year @ $3 million. The Oilers have no choice but to take the 2nd round pick. This is why the best offer is a 2nd round pick.
So it is a 2nd round pick or a similar player in need of a 2nd look.
But unlike most other “similar players” that are on offer, we know, because of analytics, that this is the floor value of Puljujarvi, and that they is significant upside potential…i.e. a short-date call option quality that a 2nd round pick, or a “similar player” does not offer.
The teams with analytics and smart cap management are more likely to offer sheet Jesse, rather than trade for him, with an offer of something like one year @ $3 million.
Why wouldn’t the Oilers match 1 year @ $3 million? Seems still in the realm of reasonable and they could still trade him, especially if he has a good start to the year.
Not sure you can extrapolate that in an offer sheet scenario. I’ve been expecting both of them to sign for about $3M all along though.
I don’t think a $3M offer sheet will be extended (or signed by Puljujarvi’s camp for that matter) though because everyone would expect Holland to match it.
This is correct, the analytics may love the player, but why would you go around parading how much you like those players? The entire other end of the job is finding undervalued players and paying the minimum to get them.
Signing Puljujarvi is like selling a put with a strike price of a good 3rd line winger. (i.e. selling an at-the-money put)
Trading Puljujarvi for a 2nd or some of the crappy “similar” players that have been suggested is like selling a call with a strike price of good 3rd line winger.(i.e. selling an at-the-money call)
If the Oilers are tipping their hand this badly that they’re desperate to move Puljujarvi, why would other teams be tripping over themselves to make good offers for him?
The players that interest me the most in the draft are Maverick Lamoureux, Tyler Brennan, and Filip Mesar. I’ll be watching for them, especially if we trade down to the 2nd round for more picks.
Munny 2.0
July 6, 2022 1:00 pm
Former Oiler Bryan Marchment has died suddenly in Montreal at age 53. He was a scout for the Sharks.
Just checking out some of the lines suggested lately.
Me thinks the McD/Drai playoff combo was more a story of injuries than a sure fire strategic decision going forward.
I would think those two are split up to start the season. A playmaker like Giroux on the cycle with McDavid could be fun. It would be a pesky line of all peskiness with Yamo in there. The physicality of Drai/Kane/Hyman is the stuff of nightmares.
Giroux is sneaky dirty in a Giordano way.
Fun Times in the hours before the draft in Oiler land.
Gonna laugh when Francis spends a small fortune for a guy he could have had for free last summer
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 12:20 pm
Gregor with sourced intel on Jesse (and much more). Just one quote:
Holland is looking for a player of similar ability. Not the same type of player, but one who still has room to grow. Three teams I’ve heard expressing interest are Carolina, Detroit, and Nashville. I’ve heard there are more, but haven’t been able to confirm so I won’t guess.
When I review those teams, there are a few names that fit that bill to varying degrees.
CAR: Necas
DET: Zadina and Rasmussen
NAS: Tolvanen and Kunin
Necas is the best of these options but also not someone I think is actually available as a return- even for Puljujarvi+. As such, I’ll exclude him from the analysis.
Both Zadina and Tolvanen possess a similar and (likely) attractive profile for EDM. Talented shooters who have struggled to translate their offense to the NHL but nonetheless possess skillsets that may be a good fit alongside EDM’s talented Cs. Of the two, I like Tolvanen more because, to my eye, he has more “grind” to his game, has more of a cannon, and is more elusive in the offensive zone. He’s also signed for 1.45mil for 2 more years (Zadina is an RFA).
Rasmussen has the that ever-tantalizing combination of size, speed, and some skill. Haven’t seen enough of him play and his numbers aren’t what I’d call encouraging but few players present as interesting a possibility to a team like EDM. His 1.46mil contract for 2 more years is also attractive.
Kunin is a hard-working utility guy that hits a lot (223 in 2021-22) and has scored at a decent clip before. Think Compher-esque. Might be a good fit for the team’s 3rd line w/ McLeod if his contract ask isn’t too high (2mil or below).
Of those names, I’d be most interested in Tolvanen while I’d say Zadina or Kunin are the most likely to be the name coming back in a Puljujarvi trade. Anything below this tier of players should be outright rejected as the basis for a Puljujarvi trade.
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 11:58 am
Meanwhile, the sense is Edmonton and New Jersey are the leading suitors for Campbell once/if he hits the market next week. It wouldn’t surprise me if Washington also inquired on Campbell.
I’d be excited to nab Campbell but my preference remains a less risky contract acquisition, the one-year to one of the established vets – most of which would be cheaper on the cap this coming season as well.
LeBrun also advises the Canes have interest in Giroux as they will be looking to add offence with the likely loss of a couple guys to the market.
Munny 2.0
July 6, 2022 11:52 am
I had pre-written comment last night based on signing the Kessel Spice Run to replace JP but I see the media is all over that angle this morning (*checks firewall*), so there’s no need for me to post lol. So let’s go with this instead…
I think Kane would sign a 6 X 6.6M 😉 from the Oil. Would you offer it?
I think Giroux has the most to offer the Oilers with his RH FO skills and PP one-timer. A lot of competition for his services though.
I think Perron is likely the most value to be had out of the three, ie most goals per dollars. But would he come back to Perogyville?
I do not watch a lot of Philly. Does Giroux really have a good one-timer? I always thought he was more of set-up guy/playmaker?
Kane for six years scares me. He does have obvious chemistry with McD and he brings an element of nasty that this team sorely lacked. Signed until he is 37-38…I don’t know.
Giroux for 2-3 years is probably the better option.
Reading some scouting reports this morning, it sounds like Lian Bichsel is exactly what the Oiler D core lacks. The development timeline for young D is the problem though given the need for urgency with the McDavid/Draisaitl cluster.
Not liking the verbal on Brad Lambert. One scout described his compete level and work ethic as not there 90% of the time! Would think his being traded in Liiga would be a red flag as well. Seems to be a guy that would dangle in the regular season then stay on the perimeter once the real season starts.
Kane will come in over $7 mill over 5 and Giroux would max out at 2/3 years around $5 mill or less. I’d take him at $5 mill
Giroux is a better two way player and can take faceoffs to help McDavid or Nuge, whoever he lines up with.
Sneaky D signing
Colin Miller from Buffalo if they move on from Barrie
He could come in less then $2 mill, and is a solid PP backup QB and his analytics on a crappy team is solid and is a bigger, better defender and less flashy version of Barrie. Fits 3 RD.
Puljujarvi is gone (sadly) and I still want Brown from Ottawa, but accept it’ll probably be a 3rd liner with more grintensity. No idea from whom, but I expect we will be similarly disappointed as per the Bear/Foegele deal.
Our top 6 could be
Draisatl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Nuge-Giroux
That is freakin solid. And you can swap Nuge and McDavid wanted to.
If Nuge can’t take FOs over Nuge, then I guess that does leave Nuge on the wing so Nuge can take FOs instead of Nuge. Which is nice, cause if Nuge is having a bad day on FOs he can always swap with Nuge and then push Nuge to the wing.
I don’t think there’s anyone who has more grin-tensity than Puljujarvi, haha.
Shaun VanAllen's mom
July 6, 2022 11:21 am
Hey LT, just pre-ordered your book – looking forward to digging into it. I got a bit of a chuckle from your Amazon author’s bio – why don’t you talk about the Harvard days more?
Allan Mitchell received his PhD from Harvard in 1961, then taught at Smith College (1961-1972) and the University of California, San Diego (1972-1992). His recent books include “The Devil’s Captain: Ernst Jünger in Nazi Paris, 1941-1944 (Berghahn Books, 2011)” and “Dynamics of Innovation: The Expansion of Technology in Modern Times” (Berghahn, 2013).
Paulie
July 6, 2022 11:18 am
I agree with many here that Jess brings a lot to team. His defensive contributions are stellar, both in terms of analytics and by the eye test. His offense has always been inconsistent, and I recall LT raising questions about whether his offense might prove shy at the NHL level. While there is potential for improvement in the future, he’ll be 25 next season and has already played 279 NHL games (regular season + playoffs) and scored 49 goals, added 54 assists, and totaled 103 points. He often had bad line mates early in his career and was not ready in season 1, but he has not exploded offensively the past two years given more opportunities with superior line mates. And while he might take off the way Nichushkin did for the Avs this year, I suspect these kinds of leaps in production in the sixth or seventh of someone’s career are rare.
The best person to get a read on what Jesse brings is the head coach. Woody slotted Jesse as a middle-six forward, especially during the playoffs. Holland’s commentary suggests that he does not yet see Jesse as a top 6 forward either. Jesse’s own performance suggests, to me at least, a middle six guy with the potential to move up temporarily or perhaps permanently at some point. Part of this likely reflects Jesse’s illness and injuries – he was unable to perform at something close to 95-100%.
There has been speculation that Chia guaranteed Jesse playing time in his first season after the draft. DNB has reported that there’s a “philosophical discrepancy” between the organization and Jesse about his role. Whether it’s his agent of Jesse driving this, it suggests, to me at least, a “me first” mentality rather than a “team first” mentality. His position seems to be “I’m better than you give me credit for and I should be playing more.” Woody’s TOI decisions suggest he doesn’t see it that way and that he wants Jesse to earn more ice time (a healthy Jesse might be able to just that). I wonder how this attitude plays in the locker room, to see a solid contributor asking for more ice time without having necessarily earned it.
Trading for pick/s would be a disaster, but it doesn’t sound like that is on the table. Perhaps the best course of action is to sign Jesse to a one-year “show me” deal, see if he can earn more ice time and pop for 20 goals, 40-50 points, and see where things stand next year. As LT has shown, Jesse raises all boats on whatever line he’s one. Putting him as 3R with the Highlander as a 3rd line center (perhaps Fogle or Holloway as LW) has the potential to be a dominant shut down line that produces enough offense to outscore the opposition when 97 and 29 are off the ice. Even if Jesse’s offensive ceiling is 35 points or so, his defense pushes the team toward a Cup. There is tremendous value in that, but what if Jesse doesn’t see it that way? What if he is insisting that he’s really a top 6 guy?
Great post. I would quibble in the sense that you have to take some chances once in awhile and going long on Puljujarvi now is the right play, particularly with the cap set to rise. It’s not going to be an immoveable contract the way Kassian is, for example.
The upside? Enormous. Top line RW locked up (relatively) cheap.
How does being a solid contributor equate to not necessarily earning more icetime?
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 11:15 am
My initial post here seems to now be subject to moderation but, for me, if a thread citing tweets from this person to be revered and praised, is permitted, it’s only fair and honest to have all the information available
jp
July 6, 2022 11:12 am
So Claude Giroux.
The guy is getting up there, but he’s still a heck of a hockey player. The Oilers reportedly have interest, and it sounds likely he’d consider a move west if he’s getting more than a 1 year deal (which seems right up Holland’s alley). I almost feel like Giroux is more likely to end up an Oiler than Kane at this point.
What would that look like? Well he could obviously complement McDavid or Draisaitl nicely from the wing, but he’s played center almost exclusively. A quality 2-way player and an exceptional face-off man as well (#2 in the league over the past 5 years at 59.1%). Would he play 2C and allow McDavid and Draisaitl to play together?
Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Giroux-Kessel
Nuge-McLeod-Puljujarvi (or C. Brown)
Holloway-J.Larsson-Ryan
(Giroux at 2 x $5M, Kessel at 2 x $1.5M, Larsson at 3 x $1.25M)
I agree about Giroux. I think Holland’s best bet is to pursue Giroux agressively first (2 year deal) as if Kane is unattainable, and only turn back to Kane if that doesn’t work out. We just don’t have the long term cap available for Kane beyond 2-3 years, and even those years are iffy.
Kurri17
July 6, 2022 11:06 am
I am not a fan of Benson the player. Seems like a true tweener. Perhaps one day he will blossom late and find a place in the league. But I think there is no place for him on this Oilers team, he has no role. Marody probably should have received a fair shot in the bottom six at least at some point.
Not fair to Benson, but I can’t help but think of Debrincat everytime I see Benson on the ice. After the pure excitement of the first pick of that 2015 draft, the rest of it went downhill super fast.
Whoops, you’re right. Geez, the years are just mixing together. I guess my brain ended up conflating the disappointment of the Reinhart trade with the miss on Benson. It’s definitely time for morning coffee.
Mike Grier, his brother is the GM of the Miami Dolphins.
winchester
July 6, 2022 10:34 am
I have been enjoying the summertime write ups LT, and following your thought process on team building.
–We have some real disappointments on that list. Depth signings have not been working out well. Turris, Brassard, Sceviour. Scevior was working for a while but best of the worst is faint praise. Brings up your recent discussion of the absolute need to get these signings correct.
–If I had a line of Jesse P, McLeod, and was looking for a right winger, I would think Perlini would be worth a try.
–Both Benson and Cooper were coming in with an NHLE of 39. That should translate. Benson problem was obvious, it was hs skating. He could not create offense, could not get to the puck fast enough nor around the ice quick enough to contribute.
–Cooper I have no idea. His knock was skating but I didn’t see it and did not see him play enough games. For him it was the GM bringing in “his” guys in Haas, Nygaurd, Perlini…etc that kept perpetual ongoing tryouts without any participation from Cooper. The tell was Woody passing on him to bring up Malone.
–Archibald was a decent player and although he was one dimensional he filled the role well. That question again, “can you win Stanley with Archibald” as fourth line winger?”
hunter1909
July 6, 2022 10:22 am
I got spoiled from the Sather era – when he routinely went out to improve the team draft choices be damned.
Having Gretzky/Messier/Anderson/Simpson/Tikkannen in the top 6 helps…
Benign Bone
July 6, 2022 10:16 am
As dumb as it may seem given the other names on the list, Kulak is my #1 priority. After that, it’s McLeod.
Wow, thank you for sharing these numbers. Not totally surprised, but am a bit shocked to see how he came out so clean goal wise.
Russell will always be a solid example to me about the value of nuance. Based on the shot metrics, it seemed like his goal share would eventually crater, but it never did. He for sure made too much money on his second contract here, but he wasn’t the reason for cap woes.
Russell was a major target in this city for a long time. I cringed at some of the blog posts written against him, and I think a local blogger even wished for his death on Twitter at one point. In hindsight, all of that seems pretty exaggerated and silly considering how Russell ended up performing. Certainly wasn’t worth the stress and panic.
As good an argument as any for nuanced, rational discussion, as our host often calls for.
For me there are things that players do that are good hockey, and don’t show well in some ways
For Rusty it looked like he spent too much time defending because of his size and not moving the puck well. So often it came straight back in. A lot was coaching though, they were asked to use the glass we’ve read, and the forwards were not supporting the break out well. It got better with Woody
Still teams had trouble scoring on him
JP is similar in a way. He is great at disrupting breakouts and holding possession but isn’t great using his linemates or finishing
They both help goal share but I think also suppress offense compared to more rounded players. If you can get them that is
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 9:52 am
Even when he was making $4MM, Kris Russell was far more value for cap hit then he got credit for.
He got asked to bat way above his established abilities, playing his offside on his second paring way too much, and did a serviceable job and was actually solid in that one year paired with Sekera.
I was definitely one that derided him at times and posited that he can’t be an option at 2RD but that’s on management. over the years and he was a better player than I gave him credit for in the moment over the years.
Should make for a interesting draft. What G.M’s are going to gamble their early picks and jobs in a way on CCCP players.
OriginalPouzar
July 6, 2022 9:47 am
Last I saw Sammy was in the Dominican and that was in mid-June. Here is hoping he hasn’t gone back to Russia and, if he has, he’s able to get back.
The players who’s rights are held by CSKA (who’s owner is good friends with Puts) seems to be in a precarious position. Good article up at ON which I can’t seem to link properly from my location for some reason.
https://twitter.com/azadarski/status/1544716711311446016?s=21&t=AcQgYLfQDEYT0MjubS8zJQ
Upon hearing about the arrest of Ivan Fedotov, Kirill Kaprizov reportedly immediately returned to the United States. His name is linked to fraudulent military IDs being sold to players, including Fedotov, and Kaprizov is now wanted in Russia, per Sport-Express.
I don’t know who would neg a post about a guy who basically gave away decades of his life because of his play for the Oilers. The ultimate sacrifice and a true tragedy. HH is that you?
I respect Sammy (Semenko) and he filled a valuable role on the team, but he did not die for the team. He passed away from pancreatic cancer.
I still get the idea that he is the only “Sammy” to play for the Oilers. I don’t believe Gagner was ever given that nickname, at least not publicly. Samorukov needs to actually make the team to carve out a nickname for himself.
At 5’8″ and 188 lbs., he wasn’t going to get the nickname “Samson”. While his relationship with the Oiler was at a very meaningful time, it was also very short at just over 90 days. Amazing the significant difference one game could have made to his and several others’ legacies in Edmonton had they won that game 7.
jp
July 6, 2022 9:46 am
This is a nice rundown of the rumors surrounding the Oilers this week (and their sources), for anyone who’s interested.
Yeah, I know. I just wanted to show that I could fit in with the crowd by bashing the locals. 😉
Randle McMurphy
July 6, 2022 9:44 am
~ Shorter post by LT this morning as he pounds away at the keyboard to finish off the book manuscript that he told the publishers was ready to go to press. ~
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
·
23s
With Kuemper available now, any contract negotiations will likely be tricky with regards to term. He’s 32. He’s not 30 like Campbell or 27 like Husso. How high can Oilers go with their cap situation to make a play? Wash needs older starter, so does Detroit, and Buffalo.
Good grief….someone tell Matty Mike Smith is 40.
Mister Georgex, I look forward to your posts, always educational and thought provoking, thank you.
Post Gorilla trekking, 5 hour drive out of Bwindi forest gives me a chance to catch up on Holland’s media avail and spot on Gregor from yesterday which is much better then just reading quotes. A couple of things additional for me:
1) He made a point of mentioning that contracts signed this year will effect cap available in the next few years and specifically mentioned needing to keep money for Bouch and projecting his future cap hit. Not sure if that means he may try and get the extension in advance but Good to hear in any event.
2) While the goalie acquisition is likely via free agency, he has had conversations on trades and will continue to do so. We all know I’m on board with a trade given the risk of all free agents with projected contracts.
Great post and I’d add, JP is already elite defensively. So he really doesn’t have to score that much to be a very, very important piece. You could have him shadowing a team’s best player while 97 makes hay.
The guy on that list I liken him to would be a Danault, but on the wing. Kings almost knocked out the Oilers because of Danault’s handiwork. These guys do not grow on trees.
WOWYs not being predictive is, IIRC, your grievance against tracking EV scoring instead of total points. I think where we disagree is, just because something isn’t predictive doesn’t make it completely useless. I don’t have any reason to expect JP + 97 to put up a near 70% goal share next season, but the fact that 97 was really only marginally good goal share wise away from JP means something to me.
I look at JP as a guy who already scores at a top 6 rate at evens, is big, wins battles, is already elite defensively, and could pop with better finishing ability, AND seems to make his teammates better. Will it happen? No clue. Could it all be a mirage, luck, smoke and mirrors? Maybe.
Btw, if you thought WOWYs with two players is too small a sample size, wait til you see Redbird’s post below using Puljujarvi, Keith, and McDavid.
I think we agree on a lot. I totally agree CMD is the best, and I agree he doesn’t *need* a specific line mate to succeed. Except for:
McDavid could put up 150 points and what if his goal share is between, say, 50 and 55? Versus, say, 55+ or 60+? McDavid is amazing, but he can’t drive a goal share that high all by himself. We know that, because in the past he’s had mediocre linemates and he hasn’t hit those sensational heights. His own performance has always been spectacular.
You say WOWY doesn’t correlate on a year-to-year basis on average partly because on average everything changes, partly because of SS. But then the question arises: how do you explain it? Was JP extraordinarily lucky? On every single line he played on? For an entire season?
My other issue with “predictive value” is that player development and decline isn’t a static process either. That’s to say nothing of injury, luck, opportunity, etc. I will totally cede to you that point that WOWY on average is not predictive. But I disagree on your conclusion that it means nothing.
My issue with your philosophy is you are shopping in the expensive aisle if you are going by what is “predictive.” It’s a flat cap world. You need to find some guys who are undervalued, and I suspect by using some of these advanced stats with real world observation, one could nail down an undervalued player.
I’m convinced JP is one.
Will he score? Agree, he is nowhere near elite in terms of production. That said, I showed awhile back that even with marginal improvement in shooting %, JP can very easily be a first line caliber forward.
One way or another, we’ll see!
JP may be under valued but not by his agent!
Great post. Well thought out.
You would think its possible for a GM to let a player rot unless he is prepared to play ball with the team. Ever since Lowe was buffaloed into giving Pronger away it’s felt like the players have all of the power, which clearly they aren’t supposed to have.
Not talking about destroying anyones career here.
If JP wants to play for another team then that’s fine, but it need not screw the Oilers. Or does it?
That’s been my worry for a little while now that the players will turn this into an NBA type situation. Player contracts mean nothing, trade demands need to be heeded, and the teams are essentially beholden to a bunch of mercenaries.
Holland said he’s willing to wait all summer. I think DNB’s reporting has captured the nuance of the situation the best.
DNB with a Holland interview from Montreal.
https://theathletic.com/3404912/2022/07/06/nhl-draft-oilers-ken-holland/?source=user_shared_article
Sounds like Kassian is gone one way or the other.
Killing it, HH. Don’t let these downvotes get you down!
Not sure about Kassian, but Oilers have some very good defence prospects emerging.
Ummmmmmm……what in the actual fu-huck?!?
I sincerely have to ask……….. are you okay?
And if you are, I am so glad to see that the treatments worked!
Holland says the goalie is most likely a free agent acquisition. No surprise, and the signing as opposed to trade is Holland’s MO, but I’m disappointed.
Holland also says there is going to be more change than normal and at least one of the young D will be on the team.
He could be referring to Broberg for a more permanent role on the big club.
Sammy is currently In Edmonton and DNB did some digging and Petrov is in Russia but is planning to be in development camp on Sat. I don’t think CSKA holds Petrov’s rights.
Andy Strickland on Twitter.
Evander Kane talks with #Oilers haven’t gotten to close to what he’s hoping to get. Would you give Kane 6-7 years at $6-7 mill? Several teams with interest.
Andy Strickland also thinks Zadorov is looking for a 4 year deal in the mid to upper 4’s.
This for a 3rd pair D who made $3.75 MM last season. I guess he is hoping no one watched the Battle of Alberta.
What any player is hoping to get and what they realistically get are two different things. Maybe someone pays that for Zadorov, but my goodness is Ceci a bargain if that is the market for Zadorov. I don’t think Kane gets that either, but there is always a chance.
No, would not give Kane 6 x$6 mil. Max 3, maybe 4 year term. Hard to guage interest in him as he is not a free agent yet. Frankly I cant see other teams wanting to go long term on him.
It would be absolutely wild to me if a team gave Kane a 6-7 year contract at 6-7 million.
At that cap hit and term you’d wish him well, and part ways amicably.
Well I was hoping for a 7 year nhl contract for myself too but that’s not happening
“several teams interested” Yet I have not heard a single team interested except Oilers. Make cap low enough and term short enough that he’s back in the value isle, then sure, teams are interested.
Otherwise where are these teams?
CLB signs Adam Boqvist to a 3 year extension.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/blue-jackets-sign-rfa-adam-boqvist-to-three-year-7-8m-contract/
Andy Strickland
@andystrickland
· 1h
Matthew Tkachuk trade rumors swirling…some talk of last offer from #Flames to Johnny Gaudreau was in the $9.5 range.
Calgary potentially losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk in the offseason?
Hate to see it.
One has to be as careful with US players as Russians
Many are total homers. Hockey be the sideline to the lifestyle
But.. Johnny said he loves it in Calgary and will stay there forever and ever. Crossed his heart and everything.
Hits a body right in the feels wallet!
They’ll need to offer 10+ million to keep him off the market.
Small wingers won’t in my opinion get that kind of money. Centers and versatile players that also score ie Draisaitl will.
Artemi Panarin is 5″11″ and 170 lbs and makes $11 million. Alex DeBrincat is 5″7″ and 165 lbs. His QO is $9 million. Patrick Kane is 5″10 170 lbs. and makes $10.5 million. Nikita Kucherov is 5″11, 180 lbs. and makes $9.5 Million (and took a substantial discoun). None of these smallish wingers are versatile – all they all do is score – a lot.
Cujo said the same about Edmonton, back in the day. That didn’t end well…
Be a damn shame if they both left. Damn, damn shame.
(In an Elmer Fudd voice) … My widdle heart bweeds for them… it bweeds I tell ya.
The crew that is okay with trading JP should offer up solutions on how to get 97 up to a near 70% goal share without him. These WOWY numbers have been posted by WG and DK and others on twitter (hat tip to all them) but let’s go through them.
97 w 13: 69% GF
97 wo 13: 53% GF
13 wo 97: 57% GF
JP with a higher goal share away from McDavid than McDavid away from JP.
How about this:
Yamo w 97: 54% GF (okay)
97 wo Yamo: 62% GF (hmmm)
Yamo wo 97: 46% GF
How about this:
Hyman w 97: 59% GF
97 wo Hyman: 60% GF
Hyman wo 97: 38% GF (woof)
How about this:
Nuge w 97: 60% GF
97 wo Nuge: 59% GF
Nuge wo 97: 52% GF
So. Jesse wants to play in the top six. McDavid is *far* more effective with him than without him (not close). The guy “ahead” of him on the depth chart in Yamo can’t get to 50% GF without the best player in the world. The other guy “ahead” of him in the depth chart in Hyman can’t get to 40% GF (!!!) without him.
None of this makes any sense. JP is right to be pissed — he IS better than these guys. They should outplay him!
Btw: By this analysis, Nugent-Hopkins is in a different (better) league than KY and Hyman.
Wait. I’ve often said this team has one true top line winger (excluding Draisaitl):
Kane w 97: 64% GF
97 wo Kane: 57% GF
Kane wo 97: 64% GF (!!)
The only winger who matches JP’s profile is Evander Kane.
Evander Kane is a premier first line winger. I’ve said it since the rumours of him signing came about. I humbly propose to you that JP is also a first line winger. He may do it differently, but they’re both the same, and both men should be brought back.
I would go long on JP and 3 years with Kane. JP will pop soon. Get in on the ground floor!
Just make sure that Keith doesn’t retire then and play him with Connor. Keith had an 80% goal share with McDavid, which included a 67% goal share when Jesse joined them and an 89% goal share when Duncan and Connor played without Keith. Clearly Jesse was a drag on the performance the wonder-duo that was McDavid/Keith.
I am being facetious, but the above data is real. Kinda hard to argue using the data you’ve provided that to retain Jesse is a no brainer keeper, while hoping that Keith retires.
There’s more:
Jesse without Keith or McDavid – 62.5% goal share
Keith without Jesse or McDavid – 48% goal share
McDavid without Jesse or Keith – 41% goal share
This McDavid guy is being propped up by Jesse and Keith, what’s the story with that?
The truth is I don’t have the answers. But I can say with a fair amount of confidence, with all due respect, neither does WG nor, for damn sure, does DK. The Oilers have every piece of data and information that either of these guys has access to and multiples more.
That data doesn’t really surprise me. McDavid’s goal share away from Puljujarvi was very ordinary. Interesting that it’s even lower without Keith, but I suspect those would be tougher minutes (Nurse would almost always draw the tougher matchup).
I think what you’re arguing is interesting, but I do not think that it says Puljujarvi is not a top 6 winger.
I should add that you are doing WOWYs with 3 players. Smaller sample sizes and noisier. Oh and you’re making comparisons with 2 forwards and 1 D. Two of the forwards played on the first line and the D played second pair under Tippett and was further sheltered under Woodcroft.
It’s a completely disingenuous comparison, but fill your boots, appears the community agrees.
Because Keith struggles in the defensive zone?😉
Okay, but we also know that Tippett gave Nurse the bulk of the tough minutes and then Woodward doubled down on that strategy. Ergo, Keith would play softer minutes with 97, whereas JP would not.
There’s also the matter of JP not competing with Keith for ice time, but rather with Hyman/Yamo and, to a lesser extent, Nuge and Kane (who play the opposite wing).
Can’t dispute the numbers, but what about zone starts? I might be wrong, but I can recall something to the affect that JP had a very high rate of OZ starts. I wouldn’t trade JP though, unless he wants out.
I like Puljujarvi as a player and would not be looking to trade him.
These numbers are a snapshot though. If you look at the same numbers for last season, or this season’s playoffs, McDavid was better without Puljujarvi than with him.
Redbird has done a nice job illustrating the fallacy of following numbers like these too closely. Jesse is helping out there, but the numbers you (or WG, or DK) posted overstate his impact by a wide margin IMO.
Puljujarvi was a better player this season compared to last. Playoffs he was not himself, no question, and it turned out was playing injured after having come back from some illness late in the regular season.
I don’t agree with the nihilist interpretation that because there is something we don’t understand in the numbers, that we should throw them away. To each their own.
As for what redbird is saying, my theory is above. Comparing Keith and Puljujarvi is not an apples to apples comparison. Puljujarvi plays on a line with McDavid; Keith does not. These are different things. I suspect Keith gets softer ice when on with 97 as compared to, say, Nurse.
I didn’t say throw away the numbers. Not at all. I’m saying don’t take them at 100% face value.
The reasons being:
1) a larger sample size considerably weakens the effect you’re looking at
2) on ice measures of player performance are not very reproducible in general. That is, a given players GF%, xGF%, SF%, etc, does not correlate very well year over year.
(Georgexs alludes to point #2 in his post this evening, but has shown it much more thoroughly and convincingly here in the past).
So when I say “Jesse is helping out there,”, I mean that he really does seem to be improving team performance when he’s on the ice.
And when I say “but the numbers you … posted overstate his impact by a wide margin”, I mean that his impact on team performance is very unlikely to remain as strong as it was this regular season, even if there may be a real positive effect there.
So no, you don’t lock him up long term as the guy who’s the key to McDavid having a 70% GF% every year.
To what Redbird was saying, I believe what was intended was to show that the numbers and method used to pump Puljujarvi’s tires as a play driver can often produce unreliable results (with Keith used as an example near and dear to your heart, who you clearly do not value).
Kane – Connor – Necas
Hyman – Leon – Yamo
McLeod – Nuge – Kessel
Holloway – Ryan – Hoglander
Nurse – Bouchard
Chychrun – Ceci
Kulak – Broberg
Husso
Skinner
Technically possible if we could delay signing Kane until LTIR for Klefbom and Smith opens up. Acquisition costs pretty high. But a hell of a roster to ponder.
Must be three 40 goal scorers here
And another four 20 goal scorers
Good mix on defense
Did you know Jere Lehtinen topped 50 points just twice in his career (14 seasons)? Heck of a player, still, and gave opposing top line players nightmares.
Did you know that Michael Peca topped 50 points just twice in his career (11 seasons)? Heck of a player, still, and gave opposing top line players nightmares.
As per JFresh:
https://jfresh.substack.com/p/is-jesse-puljujarvi-the-next-nichushkin?sd=pf
McDavid was 39-35 away from JP and 34-15 with JP. A 52% goal share from your top line C is middling; a 69% goal share is otherworldly and what a McDavid centred line *should* be putting up (although even that is maybe too high).
Takeaway: Puljujarvi doesn’t have to score that much more to be *extremely* valuable. He already is.
Holland wants to find a similar player to JP, in terms of growth. Good luck Ken!
Except JP has Coglianoitis!
And egregious sideburns.
Sounds painful.
Such is the harshness when reality puts it’s foot down
Has anyone compared Jesse to Benoit Pouliot? Reminds me of Pouliot – in that he was a high draft pick who settled in to be a really effective middle 6 forward. Often maligned for taking too many penalties – instead of low finishing ability.
Pouliot’s EV GFrel%
2011-12: +7.82%
2012-13: +12.71%
2013-14: +7.54%
2014-15: +9.81%
2015-16: +3.94%
2016-17: -8.44%
An effective 5v5 scorer until his last 2 seasons – probably could have served one more season in Edmonton before buy-out.
Jesse just an absurd +16.09 EV GFrel% this past season. Some goaltending help – but +12.04% xGFrel.
It’s been beaten to death, but this is truly a player Edmonton should be targeting if he was on another team – not dead set on handing him off.
Great post and even better handle.
Tons of new Holland quotes on Twitter, paraphrasing:
Got these from Wilkins and Gregor – he was on with Gregor.
I think Keith will retire. Playing for 1.5 mil (half taxed) to spend another half year away from your kid in a season in which you’ll have Kulak/Broberg and maybe Niemelainen pushing you for ice. You may have to travel just to sit.
DeBrusk had a pretty tumultuous ride with the Bruins that culminated in his trade request being rescinded.
The reality for JP — and really, his agent should be telling him this — is that his earning potential is considerably higher playing a middle six role here than potentially being traded to a Siberia-like destination where he will be forced to be a main option offensively. Injuries are inevitable; he will get his top 6 ice and special teams time.
There’s a good chance Holland asked about this possibility while making the trade deal
I’d like to see the top 5 in LT’s list back and also Benson and Russell, who’d I’d move up to 6 and 7. Wouldn’t mind Marody or Sceviour for call up depth but can’t see Marody wanting to stay. Wouldn’t mind Archibald for call up depth either but I imagine he gets a roster spot somewhere.
If Holland trades JP for a player like:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=195511
…he is truly ass stupid.
An already elite (defensively) winger with 4 OV pedigree for a guy who couldn’t score in the A. Lol.
The Oilers are forever interested in things that have nothing to do with winning. Meanwhile, they obsess over big power forwards and trade the one guy they have that could be a real effective one.
I know OP will lecture me about criticizing moves that haven’t been made. Then it’ll be made and he’ll say give the guy a chance. Then he’ll say, jeez imagine he retires? 😉
I’m no Holland fan, but there’s no way this happens. A second rounder would be more valuable.
Will Russia allow Ovi to continue chasing the record?
If multiple players are barred from leaving Russia, will the NHL allow the ones that are able to leave play? while others are barred from their opportunities?
Does Holland spend all the late picks on Russians? Detroit was built off of it.
They also had, and still have, Håkan Andersson providing intel.
I brought this up three months ago and was promptly destroyed here…..
So some Russians playing in the NHL are US citizens (Malkin) and will have no problems but those trying to come over, and that includes this draft class could have difficulties. Especially if Russia institutes the draft. That is why they are trying to get these counterfeit certificates indicating they are exempt, or something to that end.
Ovi is Putin’s buddy and an old man, I doubt he has a problem from the Russian end. The US on the other hand may not grant work visas……
I remember someone suggesting the CHL should bar Russian kids. I don’t remember a conversation about Russia banning players from coming here.
Curious how much Russian players drop in the draft. With some ambiguity about Kaprizov whereabouts (may just be to protect his family) teams may shy about drafting Russians in case they become cannon fodder
Sounds like Oilers are tipping their hand. Schaefer If he’s not there at 29 seems like they will trade down
Oh? How so, has Holland been talking?
I like to tease how Holland gives his hand away even though I know I am exaggerating.
Apparently Stauffer said yesterday “the Oilers don’t have a first in the draft….Well I mean….something could happen on Thursday”.
This organization remains as leaky as the Ukrainian submarine with the screen door
I believe that was a Polish sub.
Well it definitely wasn’t a German U-Boat. Now I’m going to watch Das Boot one of the top movies ever.
That is an excellent movie. Possibly the best at conveying a claustrophobic environment ever made. Peterson hasn’t been able to reach the same heights since but that film is still a great legacy.
In searching for undervalued players with upside, I still like Nils Hoglander.
Hes not big, but he handles himself well, young, high motor, high puck skills. Fallen out of favor with new coach. 1.2M this year then RFA
I think he is the type of target Oilers should be looking at to add skill to middle six.
I heard a lot from BC news that said Nils only likes the O zone. If he was like Lekhonen no problem
Staples making a great point…
There are a lot of NHL teams that are predicated on “advanced stats” as a resource in the organization. If Pujo actually looks good by analytics, the market for his services should be very healthy. And it doesn’t appear to be the case.
(Once again, I will raise the point that there is a difference now between “advanced stats” and “public stats”. We the public, are no longer the holders of the most advanced information, sadly.)
I am speaking out of my ass, but I get the feeling there are organizations who are just getting analytics departments because they feel they should have them, but the GMs still don’t know how to use them properly, or don’t want to depend on them to make decisions and would rather do it their way (using the ol’ gut or scouts who seen a player good).
For example, I remember reading a lot about how great of an analytics team Seattle assembled and how “cutting edge” it was and with that + weaponized cap space, they would become Vegas 2.0. An unstoppable force in a position to challenge for a cup or 10.
And.. well.. look at how they assembled their team.
And I don’t think it’s the analytic’s department who is to blame for that.
True dat. But there are other more established departments that are lauded by the public stats community. Yet they don’t seem to value the player as high as the community does.
Serious question:
Who are the teams that have established analytics departments who we are confident are being used to make player acquisitions that are being lauded?
I know I have heard over the last few years that teams have acquired analytics folk or built out their departments, but then nothing much seems to happen with the team’s turnaround (on the surface that I can see at least).
I have a feeling the list isn’t very long.
Also, we only know what teams may have expressed interest based on the GMs reaching out.
I wonder how many analytics departments are pushing to entertain JP but the GM hasn’t because
“Did you see him in the playoffs, nerds?”
All valid questions, for sure. It’s Staples’s point, not really mine. But I certainly agree and have said before in different words, that NHL analytics is still a very young and likely heterogeneous group finding it’s way. Who really can say what is happening under the hood across the League?
The other thing is, from Holly’s point of view, he needs a team with an analytics dept that values JP, but also has a team need for him AND also has something Holland himself desires in return. A trade match.
Still I thought it was a bit of creative thinking from Staples and probably there’s some grains of truth in it, but how much is unknown.
Ron Francis lost his previous GM job for being too ponderous and that perhaps played a role in the expansion draft.
Likely his biggest mistake was the goaltenders he invested heavily in but there is some hope for a bounce back there if Seattle gets its defensive house in order.
Having said that, Seattle has one 1st, four 2nd, and seven additional picks in the upcoming draft as well as a total of 13 picks in the 2023 draft.
With $23 million in cap space this offseason Francis has a second chance to build a competitive roster.
There is an excellent chance they pick a stud defenseman (Simon Nemec?, although Kevin Korchinski played in their backyard) in tomorrow’s draft.
With Matty Beniers already on board (9P in 10 NHL GP) they are positioned to improve significantly
Will be fascinating to watch.
Think I have heard this story before and it turned out to be hot garbage. You are so full of it.
So you’re suggesting the Kraken don’t have 25 picks in the next two drafts and $23 million in cap space?
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/kraken
Why. Those teams can offer sheet Puljujarvi at the 2nd round draft pick compensation level at a number that will be painful for Holland to match.
1 year @ $3 million. The Oilers have no choice but to take the 2nd round pick. This is why the best offer is a 2nd round pick.
So it is a 2nd round pick or a similar player in need of a 2nd look.
But unlike most other “similar players” that are on offer, we know, because of analytics, that this is the floor value of Puljujarvi, and that they is significant upside potential…i.e. a short-date call option quality that a 2nd round pick, or a “similar player” does not offer.
The teams with analytics and smart cap management are more likely to offer sheet Jesse, rather than trade for him, with an offer of something like one year @ $3 million.
Why wouldn’t the Oilers match 1 year @ $3 million? Seems still in the realm of reasonable and they could still trade him, especially if he has a good start to the year.
they would of course do so, demonstrating that he is in fact worth more than a 2nd.
Holland would match an offer sheet at $3M. I’m all but certain of that.
That then becomes the floor for Yamamoto?
So Jesse and Kailer for $6 million total.
Not sure you can extrapolate that in an offer sheet scenario. I’ve been expecting both of them to sign for about $3M all along though.
I don’t think a $3M offer sheet will be extended (or signed by Puljujarvi’s camp for that matter) though because everyone would expect Holland to match it.
As I recall, the team tendering an offer sheet could go as high as $4.1 million while still only losing a second round pick.
How high do you think the Oilers would go to match?
For 1 year, I think they would match that. They would still have his rights at the end of it.
No idea.
So that you have an unhappy player on the team for the next year and the same situation next summer?
So you’re saying Pujo’s agent wouldn’t let him sign an offer sheet regardless?
The Oilers would match 1 year@$3M.
This is correct, the analytics may love the player, but why would you go around parading how much you like those players? The entire other end of the job is finding undervalued players and paying the minimum to get them.
you had me at short date call option
Now that I have thought more about this.
Signing Puljujarvi is like selling a put with a strike price of a good 3rd line winger. (i.e. selling an at-the-money put)
Trading Puljujarvi for a 2nd or some of the crappy “similar” players that have been suggested is like selling a call with a strike price of good 3rd line winger.(i.e. selling an at-the-money call)
If the Oilers are tipping their hand this badly that they’re desperate to move Puljujarvi, why would other teams be tripping over themselves to make good offers for him?
Multiple interested parties.
Highest bidder.
Ya know?
The players that interest me the most in the draft are Maverick Lamoureux, Tyler Brennan, and Filip Mesar. I’ll be watching for them, especially if we trade down to the 2nd round for more picks.
Former Oiler Bryan Marchment has died suddenly in Montreal at age 53. He was a scout for the Sharks.
Wow… Not good.
Really sad to hear.
RIP – he was a warrior in the playoffs,
So sad. He wore the Oiler crest with pride.
Way too young.
Just checking out some of the lines suggested lately.
Me thinks the McD/Drai playoff combo was more a story of injuries than a sure fire strategic decision going forward.
I would think those two are split up to start the season. A playmaker like Giroux on the cycle with McDavid could be fun. It would be a pesky line of all peskiness with Yamo in there. The physicality of Drai/Kane/Hyman is the stuff of nightmares.
Giroux is sneaky dirty in a Giordano way.
Fun Times in the hours before the draft in Oiler land.
It would be great but still no goalie!
Lawton:
I think 4 years is max term a team can offer Kane due to his past.
Also thinks a shorter contract would benefit Kane more.
I like the way the soon to be new AGM thinks.
Stauffer thinks Tarasenko will be moved this off-season.
He was my target before the Hyman signing.
Tarasenko has not rescinded his trade request.
Gonna laugh when Francis spends a small fortune for a guy he could have had for free last summer
Gregor with sourced intel on Jesse (and much more). Just one quote:
Holland is looking for a player of similar ability. Not the same type of player, but one who still has room to grow. Three teams I’ve heard expressing interest are Carolina, Detroit, and Nashville. I’ve heard there are more, but haven’t been able to confirm so I won’t guess.
https://oilersnation.com/2022/07/06/jesse-puljujarvi-trade-winds-are-blowing/
Pretty much exactly what Seravalli said on his bit with Yaremchuk that JP posted the link to earlier.
I haven’t been able to listen the DFO given where I am but I think Gregor had a bit more detail on teams, etc.
When I review those teams, there are a few names that fit that bill to varying degrees.
CAR: Necas
DET: Zadina and Rasmussen
NAS: Tolvanen and Kunin
Necas is the best of these options but also not someone I think is actually available as a return- even for Puljujarvi+. As such, I’ll exclude him from the analysis.
Both Zadina and Tolvanen possess a similar and (likely) attractive profile for EDM. Talented shooters who have struggled to translate their offense to the NHL but nonetheless possess skillsets that may be a good fit alongside EDM’s talented Cs. Of the two, I like Tolvanen more because, to my eye, he has more “grind” to his game, has more of a cannon, and is more elusive in the offensive zone. He’s also signed for 1.45mil for 2 more years (Zadina is an RFA).
Rasmussen has the that ever-tantalizing combination of size, speed, and some skill. Haven’t seen enough of him play and his numbers aren’t what I’d call encouraging but few players present as interesting a possibility to a team like EDM. His 1.46mil contract for 2 more years is also attractive.
Kunin is a hard-working utility guy that hits a lot (223 in 2021-22) and has scored at a decent clip before. Think Compher-esque. Might be a good fit for the team’s 3rd line w/ McLeod if his contract ask isn’t too high (2mil or below).
Of those names, I’d be most interested in Tolvanen while I’d say Zadina or Kunin are the most likely to be the name coming back in a Puljujarvi trade. Anything below this tier of players should be outright rejected as the basis for a Puljujarvi trade.
Meanwhile, the sense is Edmonton and New Jersey are the leading suitors for Campbell once/if he hits the market next week. It wouldn’t surprise me if Washington also inquired on Campbell.
https://theathletic.com/3403981/2022/07/06/lebrun-rumblings-miller-tkachuk/?source=user_shared_article
I’d be excited to nab Campbell but my preference remains a less risky contract acquisition, the one-year to one of the established vets – most of which would be cheaper on the cap this coming season as well.
LeBrun also advises the Canes have interest in Giroux as they will be looking to add offence with the likely loss of a couple guys to the market.
I had pre-written comment last night based on signing the Kessel Spice Run to replace JP but I see the media is all over that angle this morning (*checks firewall*), so there’s no need for me to post lol. So let’s go with this instead…
I think Kane would sign a 6 X 6.6M 😉 from the Oil. Would you offer it?
I think Giroux has the most to offer the Oilers with his RH FO skills and PP one-timer. A lot of competition for his services though.
I think Perron is likely the most value to be had out of the three, ie most goals per dollars. But would he come back to Perogyville?
Perron back would be fantastic
He’d be an excellent replacement for Kane. Not a fighter but he’s mean, can finish and plays 200
I do not watch a lot of Philly. Does Giroux really have a good one-timer? I always thought he was more of set-up guy/playmaker?
Kane for six years scares me. He does have obvious chemistry with McD and he brings an element of nasty that this team sorely lacked. Signed until he is 37-38…I don’t know.
Giroux for 2-3 years is probably the better option.
It is a tough call.
You mean like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B2Htuu_4hU
Thanks! Wicked goal to be sure.
Oiler powerplay be all Star Trek Mirror, Mirror…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-IvIziP5Tg
What a pass by Couturier though, wow.
Reading some scouting reports this morning, it sounds like Lian Bichsel is exactly what the Oiler D core lacks. The development timeline for young D is the problem though given the need for urgency with the McDavid/Draisaitl cluster.
Not liking the verbal on Brad Lambert. One scout described his compete level and work ethic as not there 90% of the time! Would think his being traded in Liiga would be a red flag as well. Seems to be a guy that would dangle in the regular season then stay on the perimeter once the real season starts.
Lambert sounds like another Filatov.
UFA hopes
Giroux ahead of Kane.
Sneaky D signing
Puljujarvi is gone (sadly) and I still want Brown from Ottawa, but accept it’ll probably be a 3rd liner with more grintensity. No idea from whom, but I expect we will be similarly disappointed as per the Bear/Foegele deal.
Our top 6 could be
Draisatl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Nuge-Giroux
That is freakin solid. And you can swap Nuge and McDavid wanted to.
There is zero chance Nuge would be taking FOs over Nuge. Nuge would be on the wing, helping Giroux on FOs, not the other way around.
If Nuge can’t take FOs over Nuge, then I guess that does leave Nuge on the wing so Nuge can take FOs instead of Nuge. Which is nice, cause if Nuge is having a bad day on FOs he can always swap with Nuge and then push Nuge to the wing.
That’s a whole lotta Nuge right there.
It’s just one big Nugget lol
Giroux is so vastly superior on the dot to Nuge (almost anyone really) that the idea that he helps other forwards to take face-offs is comical.
exactly
Who is the right winger on this line? Nuge?
I don’t think there’s anyone who has more grin-tensity than Puljujarvi, haha.
Hey LT, just pre-ordered your book – looking forward to digging into it. I got a bit of a chuckle from your Amazon author’s bio – why don’t you talk about the Harvard days more?
I agree with many here that Jess brings a lot to team. His defensive contributions are stellar, both in terms of analytics and by the eye test. His offense has always been inconsistent, and I recall LT raising questions about whether his offense might prove shy at the NHL level. While there is potential for improvement in the future, he’ll be 25 next season and has already played 279 NHL games (regular season + playoffs) and scored 49 goals, added 54 assists, and totaled 103 points. He often had bad line mates early in his career and was not ready in season 1, but he has not exploded offensively the past two years given more opportunities with superior line mates. And while he might take off the way Nichushkin did for the Avs this year, I suspect these kinds of leaps in production in the sixth or seventh of someone’s career are rare.
The best person to get a read on what Jesse brings is the head coach. Woody slotted Jesse as a middle-six forward, especially during the playoffs. Holland’s commentary suggests that he does not yet see Jesse as a top 6 forward either. Jesse’s own performance suggests, to me at least, a middle six guy with the potential to move up temporarily or perhaps permanently at some point. Part of this likely reflects Jesse’s illness and injuries – he was unable to perform at something close to 95-100%.
There has been speculation that Chia guaranteed Jesse playing time in his first season after the draft. DNB has reported that there’s a “philosophical discrepancy” between the organization and Jesse about his role. Whether it’s his agent of Jesse driving this, it suggests, to me at least, a “me first” mentality rather than a “team first” mentality. His position seems to be “I’m better than you give me credit for and I should be playing more.” Woody’s TOI decisions suggest he doesn’t see it that way and that he wants Jesse to earn more ice time (a healthy Jesse might be able to just that). I wonder how this attitude plays in the locker room, to see a solid contributor asking for more ice time without having necessarily earned it.
Trading for pick/s would be a disaster, but it doesn’t sound like that is on the table. Perhaps the best course of action is to sign Jesse to a one-year “show me” deal, see if he can earn more ice time and pop for 20 goals, 40-50 points, and see where things stand next year. As LT has shown, Jesse raises all boats on whatever line he’s one. Putting him as 3R with the Highlander as a 3rd line center (perhaps Fogle or Holloway as LW) has the potential to be a dominant shut down line that produces enough offense to outscore the opposition when 97 and 29 are off the ice. Even if Jesse’s offensive ceiling is 35 points or so, his defense pushes the team toward a Cup. There is tremendous value in that, but what if Jesse doesn’t see it that way? What if he is insisting that he’s really a top 6 guy?
Great post. I would quibble in the sense that you have to take some chances once in awhile and going long on Puljujarvi now is the right play, particularly with the cap set to rise. It’s not going to be an immoveable contract the way Kassian is, for example.
The upside? Enormous. Top line RW locked up (relatively) cheap.
How does being a solid contributor equate to not necessarily earning more icetime?
My initial post here seems to now be subject to moderation but, for me, if a thread citing tweets from this person to be revered and praised, is permitted, it’s only fair and honest to have all the information available
So Claude Giroux.
The guy is getting up there, but he’s still a heck of a hockey player. The Oilers reportedly have interest, and it sounds likely he’d consider a move west if he’s getting more than a 1 year deal (which seems right up Holland’s alley). I almost feel like Giroux is more likely to end up an Oiler than Kane at this point.
What would that look like? Well he could obviously complement McDavid or Draisaitl nicely from the wing, but he’s played center almost exclusively. A quality 2-way player and an exceptional face-off man as well (#2 in the league over the past 5 years at 59.1%). Would he play 2C and allow McDavid and Draisaitl to play together?
Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Giroux-Kessel
Nuge-McLeod-Puljujarvi (or C. Brown)
Holloway-J.Larsson-Ryan
(Giroux at 2 x $5M, Kessel at 2 x $1.5M, Larsson at 3 x $1.25M)
Just a thought.
I agree about Giroux. I think Holland’s best bet is to pursue Giroux agressively first (2 year deal) as if Kane is unattainable, and only turn back to Kane if that doesn’t work out. We just don’t have the long term cap available for Kane beyond 2-3 years, and even those years are iffy.
I am not a fan of Benson the player. Seems like a true tweener. Perhaps one day he will blossom late and find a place in the league. But I think there is no place for him on this Oilers team, he has no role. Marody probably should have received a fair shot in the bottom six at least at some point.
Not fair to Benson, but I can’t help but think of Debrincat everytime I see Benson on the ice. After the pure excitement of the first pick of that 2015 draft, the rest of it went downhill super fast.
Benson and DeBrincat were drafted in 2016, FWIW.
Whoops, you’re right. Geez, the years are just mixing together. I guess my brain ended up conflating the disappointment of the Reinhart trade with the miss on Benson. It’s definitely time for morning coffee.
You can still think of Barzal everytime you see Benson on the ice. Although I doubt you will be seeing much of him unfortunately
Andrew Cogliano signs for one year at $1.25 million in Colorado.
We know … that happened a couple of days ago.
Mike Grier, his brother is the GM of the Miami Dolphins.
I have been enjoying the summertime write ups LT, and following your thought process on team building.
–We have some real disappointments on that list. Depth signings have not been working out well. Turris, Brassard, Sceviour. Scevior was working for a while but best of the worst is faint praise. Brings up your recent discussion of the absolute need to get these signings correct.
–If I had a line of Jesse P, McLeod, and was looking for a right winger, I would think Perlini would be worth a try.
–Both Benson and Cooper were coming in with an NHLE of 39. That should translate. Benson problem was obvious, it was hs skating. He could not create offense, could not get to the puck fast enough nor around the ice quick enough to contribute.
–Cooper I have no idea. His knock was skating but I didn’t see it and did not see him play enough games. For him it was the GM bringing in “his” guys in Haas, Nygaurd, Perlini…etc that kept perpetual ongoing tryouts without any participation from Cooper. The tell was Woody passing on him to bring up Malone.
–Archibald was a decent player and although he was one dimensional he filled the role well. That question again, “can you win Stanley with Archibald” as fourth line winger?”
I got spoiled from the Sather era – when he routinely went out to improve the team draft choices be damned.
Having Gretzky/Messier/Anderson/Simpson/Tikkannen in the top 6 helps…
As dumb as it may seem given the other names on the list, Kulak is my #1 priority. After that, it’s McLeod.
I thought Kulak was excellent in playoffs and brought over some skills from his Montreal cup run.
I know building the top six is more exciting (to me)
But Goalie plus getting a solid D core together is going to take us farther.
Nurse – Bouchard
Chychrun – Ceci
Kulak – Broberg
Niemo – Samorukov
is it enough?
Riffing on the Kris Russell talk, if this is his sail on (Innisfail Flyer) year.
Agreed with LT and others that he did far more in the end than he got credit for.
6 seasons with the Oilers. 339 games.
865 blocked shots
His 5v5 goal differential was exactly even at 194GF-194GA
(with him off the ice the team was 718GF-746GA)
And an even 11GF-11GA in the playoffs too
(the team was 71GF-77GA with him off)
He helped the team in a real way, and he seems like a real solid person on top of it.
Math likes him if you look in the right spots. I wonder when the public stats community will get the position of defense cracked?
Wow, thank you for sharing these numbers. Not totally surprised, but am a bit shocked to see how he came out so clean goal wise.
Russell will always be a solid example to me about the value of nuance. Based on the shot metrics, it seemed like his goal share would eventually crater, but it never did. He for sure made too much money on his second contract here, but he wasn’t the reason for cap woes.
Russell was a major target in this city for a long time. I cringed at some of the blog posts written against him, and I think a local blogger even wished for his death on Twitter at one point. In hindsight, all of that seems pretty exaggerated and silly considering how Russell ended up performing. Certainly wasn’t worth the stress and panic.
As good an argument as any for nuanced, rational discussion, as our host often calls for.
For me there are things that players do that are good hockey, and don’t show well in some ways
For Rusty it looked like he spent too much time defending because of his size and not moving the puck well. So often it came straight back in. A lot was coaching though, they were asked to use the glass we’ve read, and the forwards were not supporting the break out well. It got better with Woody
Still teams had trouble scoring on him
JP is similar in a way. He is great at disrupting breakouts and holding possession but isn’t great using his linemates or finishing
They both help goal share but I think also suppress offense compared to more rounded players. If you can get them that is
Even when he was making $4MM, Kris Russell was far more value for cap hit then he got credit for.
He got asked to bat way above his established abilities, playing his offside on his second paring way too much, and did a serviceable job and was actually solid in that one year paired with Sekera.
I was definitely one that derided him at times and posited that he can’t be an option at 2RD but that’s on management. over the years and he was a better player than I gave him credit for in the moment over the years.
Kris Russell walked in the footsteps of Lee Fogolin.
#GreatOilers
#TougherThanNails
Radio report this morning that Kiril Kaprizov could be the latest Russian player to have issues getting out of the country.
Should make for a interesting draft. What G.M’s are going to gamble their early picks and jobs in a way on CCCP players.
Last I saw Sammy was in the Dominican and that was in mid-June. Here is hoping he hasn’t gone back to Russia and, if he has, he’s able to get back.
The players who’s rights are held by CSKA (who’s owner is good friends with Puts) seems to be in a precarious position. Good article up at ON which I can’t seem to link properly from my location for some reason.
I tried to link it earlier but the post is in purgatory. Yeah, hopefully he doesn’t get stuck in service there.
https://twitter.com/azadarski/status/1544716711311446016?s=21&t=AcQgYLfQDEYT0MjubS8zJQ
Upon hearing about the arrest of Ivan Fedotov, Kirill Kaprizov reportedly immediately returned to the United States. His name is linked to fraudulent military IDs being sold to players, including Fedotov, and Kaprizov is now wanted in Russia, per Sport-Express.
The is going to be an intriguing subplot to the off-season.
I doubt he was in the Dominican. Sammy passed away 5 years ago last week.
I don’t know who would neg a post about a guy who basically gave away decades of his life because of his play for the Oilers. The ultimate sacrifice and a true tragedy. HH is that you?
Obviously talking about Samorukov.
I am not sure he was speaking about Semenko??
When guys die for the team, I retire the nickname. It’s a sign of respect, like not taking 99 as a jersey number.
I respect Sammy (Semenko) and he filled a valuable role on the team, but he did not die for the team. He passed away from pancreatic cancer.
I still get the idea that he is the only “Sammy” to play for the Oilers. I don’t believe Gagner was ever given that nickname, at least not publicly. Samorukov needs to actually make the team to carve out a nickname for himself.
Nor Samsonov.
At 5’8″ and 188 lbs., he wasn’t going to get the nickname “Samson”. While his relationship with the Oiler was at a very meaningful time, it was also very short at just over 90 days. Amazing the significant difference one game could have made to his and several others’ legacies in Edmonton had they won that game 7.
This is a nice rundown of the rumors surrounding the Oilers this week (and their sources), for anyone who’s interested.
https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-news-rumors-keith-giroux-kessel-puljujarvi/
6-7 teams showing interest in Puljujarvi according to Seravalli.
Reja was right 😉
Or our local media is incompetent?
Yes, definitely possible.
I wasn’t being even 5% serious with my last reply.
Yeah, I know. I just wanted to show that I could fit in with the crowd by bashing the locals. 😉
~ Shorter post by LT this morning as he pounds away at the keyboard to finish off the book manuscript that he told the publishers was ready to go to press. ~
Midnight Rider indeed!
#It’sInTheMail
Go eat a peach will ya.