The Oilers did in fact employ centers before Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, some of them were damned good. One of my favourites was Shawn Horcoff, who signed a big contract and paid a heavy price with fans. His coach, Craig MacTavish, said this about him in the fall of 2007: “I’m Horc’s biggest booster always have been. It’s unfortunate that he’s had to defend himself as a number one center. He’s done well in that position before, it’s a case of what you create minus what you give up. There’s every reason to believe that’s his spot.”
In the season that followed, with Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Jarret Stoll and Marty Reasoner all playing in the middle, Horcoff led Edmonton centers with a 52 percent goal share at five-on-five. MacT had it right. What you create minus what you give up. Same as it ever was.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie is in for a make or break season
- Lowetide: Finding Edmonton Oilers’ ideal skill lines for 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers have room for UFA contract or PTO. Is there a match?
- Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
HORCOFF VERSUS NUGE
I wrote a post about Horcoff’s 2009-10 season versus Nuge 2016-17 for two reasons. It was the first season I could find that provided me with the Horcoff info and I was writing it in late summer 2017, so Nuge’s numbers are the latest (at that time). I concluded the following:
- I chose 09-10 for Horcoff because I had the numbers for this specific year. Horcoff was 30 and I know for a fact he was playing tough minutes (as Nuge did this past season).
- The 5×5 offense is about even.
- Nuge on the 5×4 is just really good, brilliant really. He could help a lot of teams in this area, but as luck would have it RNH plays on the same team as Zeus.
- Horcoff was much better in the dot than his number from 2009-10 shows, Nuge has an issue in this area. I don’t believe it’s fatal.
2007-08 OILERS CENTERS
Look at that man Horcoff cheating the night. This is he at 28, winning the five-on-five minutes with trusty wingers Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. MacT had it right you know. Sam Gagner was rarely an outscoring center, and he couldn’t play the No. 1 C role. Jarret Stoll, as I recall, got the zone start mountain and that had an impact on him. Andrew Cogliano was gone and a winger by 2011. Coaches know, and when Horcoff was too old to play that role? They rolled him out there anyway, and then used a very young RNH in the role. MacT was long gone by then.
2021-22 OILERS CENTERS
Behold the splendor of McDavid, holy crap that’s a player card. Awestruck. Leon Draisaitl is no slouch either, this is ridiculous to be true. I excluded Nuge here because the overlap is already massive and I also wanted you to see Ryan McLeod. It isn’t a direct comparable, but there are things in common between McLeod and Cogliano. MacT’s handling of Cogliano in the early years involved being on a kid line with Sam Gagner and Robert Nilsson, Ethan Moreau when the kids got silly.
I’m going to be watching McLeod’s progress, because, and I reiterate they aren’t the same player, young McLeod will receive the benefit of astounding help at his position. You know, men like McDavid and Draisaitl float boats, and Nuge has all kinds of tricks he can pass along. I’m absolutely wild about McLeod’s future, because he could be a modern example of those Oilers players in then 1980’s who had careers far beyond expectations because of time spent with Zeus.
One final item: the Al Gore is abuzz with excitement over seventh-round selection Joel Maatta and that’s so cool. He scored three goals and an assist in seven games during the WJ’s and played a lot in the gold medal game. I would say there’s reason to be encouraged, but remember he is 20, has more man strength and impressed in a very small sample. Take heart, while also tempering expectations.
Like Cogliano and Gagner before, McLeod now and Maatta possibly in the future, be like MacT. Let them show you who they are, and then act accordingly. Pushing youth above their level of performance is a bad idea, and almost every youth has a point where the competition overwhelms. Everyone but Zeus, pretty much.
Are we in the Twilight Zone???
I keep looking at Austin Watson as a solution for the Oilers because of his aggressive style of play and a UFA at the end of the season, likely a trading chip for Ottawa. He is listed as a four line right winger in Capfriendly. Would Foegele and a 3rd pick get Watson with half retained salary?
This would provide Ottawa two assets for one 4th line player, that will not be resigned. This would solve the Oiler’s cap issue and allow them a 23 player roster.
Was trying to reply to this earlier but a couple of edits seemingly got it flagged as spam.
Even this I have a bit of trouble with.
How do we even assess this? If you look at the highest paid Dmen in the league, they’re getting paid for playing heavy minutes, and for putting up some points (though not necessarily elite points).
Folks want their on ice results to be strong relative to league and team, but results for the top paid Dmen are all over the place. Hence some of those guys are regarded as terribly overpaid, others not so much. But we know Dmen don’t really control their on ice results, and those results aren’t very reproducible year over year.
If you look at the things that do get guys paid (using last 3 years from NHL.com for this):
TOI/game – Nurse is 10th among Dmen
Points – Nurse is 26th
Even strength points – Nurse is 14th
Even by +/-, Nurse is 24th among D over the last 3 years (+43). Other top 10 paid defensemen range from +77 to -45.
Nurse is the #7 paid Dman today, entering year one of his deal. He’ll be bumped out of the top 10 before long, as will continue to move down as the deal progresses. He’s 27 years old, so lots of the deal will be peak years, with the decline years not being as severe as many UFA deals (he’ll be 34 for most of the final year, turning 35 that February).
And in terms of evaluating him, he plays a ton of minutes, wins those minutes, and posts offense (even with most of it coming from even strength minutes). His on ice results (real and fancy) are also good, though not at the very top of the league. I personally have no issue at all with the deal, and don’t even think the statistical argument against it is strong.
Your points are valid and its a good post.
I value TOI quite a bit but I’m not quite in the David Staples box where TOI equates to value. Just because a player is the top option on the team and is used a ton doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s a top tier d-man, just the best option on the team. With that said, I do agree that Nurse is a legit top pairing d-man but maybe not quite a top 10 d-man.
Yes, the 5 on 5 scoring and outscoring is fantastic, hence why I have him a legit #1 d-man (more than just a top pairing guy). Of course, some of that is zoomed by McDavid minutes but, as we know, the minutes he plays are enormous comp and he wins those (generally) both with and without.
Where I don’t see him in quite the “elite category” which is what I think $9.25MM is worth is he doesn’t have the abilty to “control” the game along the lines of a Hedman, a Makar, a Josi, a Fox, etc. and I still have some concern about his defensive zone structure (decision making) game.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Nurse fan and, as I’ve said, I am good with the contract given he is more than just on-ice results (and they are very good but not “elite good” which is where is money is now and I’m talking today).
I think if the coaches can sort the team play out he’ll be way better
Goalies too
Trusting everyone is going to do their job makes everyone better, as in the best teams and what they do
Perhaps but my concern/issue was I saw regression in that area – that was his main area of improvement during the 56 game season, his best NHL season. For me, it wasn’t the 16-goals that excited me but it was the massive step he took in that area – seemed to regress markedly, to my eye, this past season.
If you use the Norris Trophy vote from the past season as a proxy for the top 10 defensemen in the league (and IMO it’s pretty accurate) and correlate that with cap hits, you see pretty quickly who is overpaid.
Just using the top 7 highest cap hits ignores that a few of them are terrible mistakes as some were signed when the cap was expected to keep rising exponentially (Doughty, Karlsson) and some were just dumb (Jones, Werenski).
Much more revealing to look at the cap hits of elite D that were signed in the flat cap era for players like Fox and Makar who both have won Norris trophies.
I understand that previous mismanagement of Nurse’s contract situation was a factor but the bottom line is that Holland paid well over market value and suggesting a stupid contract like Jones set the market is nonsense.
Otherwise Makar and Fox would be making well over $10 million.
And, no, the RFA-UFA split is not convincing since good managers are locking up their elite players coming right out of their ELCs.
Its going to be interesting to see how Treleving handles Weegar since he is roughly the same age as Nurse and IMO brings about the same value.
If you look at the past 2 seasons combined Nurse is 10th in Norris voting, so I guess a top 10 D in the league.
6 of those top 10 Norris vote getters have signed deals in the past 2 off seasons. All of them except for Kris Letang (signed for his age 35-41 seasons) received AAVs of $9M or more. I’m not sure what the issue with Nurse’s deal is.
And you’re wrong about the RFA/UFA, good managers locking up elite players stuff. The FA game has changed. Young players have taken the control from teams. They’re getting paid almost like UFAs for their RFA years, and still heading to UFA at pretty much the first chance.
Makar only signed for 6 years and Sakic bought only 1 UFA seasons.
Rantanen also signed for 6 years, only 2 UFA seasons.
Hughes 6 years, 1 UFA season.
Matthews 5 years, 1 UFA season.
Marner 6 years, 2 UFA season.
Folks complain about how Nurse’s previous contracts were mismanaged, but the Oilers got tremendous value out of the first 7 years of his career.
10th in Norris voting the last 2 years with career earnings of around $20M (that’s 2 or 2.5 years of RFA aged players like Makar, Fox, McAvoy, Werenski, Hughes etc).
Nurse is going to get paid now that he’s UFA age, but you’re pretending if you’re claiming it’s a ‘smart’ thing to pay RFA aged players $9 or $10M or $11M, only to watch them walk at age 27 or 28.
.
Nurse got ZERO Norris votes this past season and was only considered previously due to a shooting percentage heater that predictably collapsed…good managers see this.
The past value the Oilers got from Nurse has nothing at all to do with his present or future value…it’s a sunk cost for both parties.
Suggesting you would rather have a $9.25 million Nurse for the next 8 years as opposed to another 5 years of Makar illustrates my point completely.
Colorado has the best defenseman in the league locked up as he hits his prime and they will then have options while Nurse will still have 3 years left as he declines.
Suggesting all those players will walk away at the end of their contracts is not realistic as most don’t and, if the teams can’t re-sign them, they can explore trade options before that happens.
Looking at it from a league-wide perspective, if both Nurse and Makar were on the trade market right now, I expect the Oilers would likely have to retain salary to do the deal while multiple teams would be lined up to get Makar.
Makar’s contract is a bargain and will be for 5 years while the most likely outcome for Nurse is declining value in the last few years.
The 9 million dollars paid to PK Subban is an object lesson as is the contract for Dougie Hamilton who the analytics savvy Hurricanes walked away from.
Eric Tulsky knows his stuff.
It’s sad that you put in all of this effort to make this post, only for none of it to matter because chunks of it either:
A) don’t make sense
B) contradict your recent or previous posts
I hope you are grateful for the people who put effort into their posts and engage in conversation with you in good faith.
You certainly don’t reciprocate.
Love the love for McLeod LT! I’m in a similar boat and could see the man dramatically overperforming the spread if things break right. Speed, tenacity, nose for the net and for now an obvious drive to get better. Gotta love that combination of things.
Going back a few days to LTs Q of whether or not Oiler fans believe in the team I think we can say no at this point. Just got through reading Dom’s Athletic article about front office perceptions and its fun to see the team ranked a superb 23rd out of 32 and with the kind of letter grades only a student athlete would love.
Ya know I think the skepticism is for the best. It’ll keep the boys motivated, it’ll keep that shoulder chip nice and raw and hopefully will keep the fire burning in the belly. I’m really looking forward to the pre-season rankings that will have all of the Flames, Vegas and LA coming out ahead of our little northern team.
Here’s a thought experiment – what would it require for Darnell to live up to say 90% of the contract that kicks in this year? Would the highest league ice time vs Elites, a GF north of 57%, 15 goals and say >45 points a year do it? Should we add in the highest ice time on PK and top 12 say in total ice time make it work?
Nurse needs to revert back to his defensive zone structure game of the shortened 2021 season. Of course his rush defence is elite (when not immobilized by injury) and we know his skills transitioning the puck, etc., etc. but, for me, his defensive zone game regressed last season. I saw him revert to “puck chasing” and going walkabout leaving the high danger zone. I believe it was a function of “trying to do too much”.
With that said, the goal share numbers he put up with the minutes he played (with and without McDavid) show how damn effective and important he is, even when, at least to me, he isn’t bringing his A defensive game nightly.
I think he’ll need to win the Norris, cure cancer, help old ladies cross the road, develop a new sustainable form of energy, and get Britney Griner out of Russia. Even then there would be people bitching about his contract.
I travelled extensively when I was younger and you better spend 10 minutes of your valuable time and brush up on what’s legal and illegal when it comes to transporting drugs into a foreign country.
Some notes from Wheeler on Maata and Munzenburger (which include a very specific trait on Munzneburger (of a type I’ve never read/heard) that he feels will be somewhat prohibitive:
https://theathletic.com/3478992/2022/08/21/world-juniors-notebook-2022/
Kind of weird he went out of his way to make comments that both Oilers prospects would fail to make the NHL when he didn’t make those types of predictions on almost every other player he graded.
Agreed. Casual dismissal.
I find it best to disregard most of what is written by anyone from Toronto the self proclaimed centre of the universe!
Wheeler has written some glowing pieces on a few Oilers prospects in recent years, including Lavoie. Maybe there is Toronto bias there but I don’t really see it.
moved to correct thread
Fluff piece from another fake scout .. the vast majority of players from any WJC won’t play more than 200 games in the NHL … and that includes the prospects that these fake internet scouts tell us are sure things to be stars in the NHL.
I value the opinion of the likes of Scott Wheeler. Do I take it as gospel? Absolutely not, however, he does see these guys all play and, while one can only know so much about any particular player when tasked with such a volume of player to watch, I’ll take the information he provides.
One caveat, while I am far from any sort of hockey scout or player analyzer, and am more “fake scout” than the likes of Wheeler, I’m HIGHLY confident I’ve seen the likes of Lavoie, Holloway, Broberg, Samorukov, etc. play more as pro hockey players than he has given I watch them game in/game out in the American league.
Of course, my opinion is what it is, that of a non-trained fan.
Albeit with limited viewing I have been very impressed with Munzenburger. His skating is excellent and he went to the aide of a team mate, his passing was good to excellent. He obviously is very green and needs time to fine tune both his defensive and offensive game. His coach thought enough of him to make him team captain for Germany. His command of English is excellent. He also has size at 6ft 3 and almost 200 lbs. In an interview he mentioned he is hoping to get some PP this winter. There should be room for him in the AHL when he leaves college. I see all as positive unless he has greater interest in a different life pursuit!
I also see positive arrows but won’t discount the opinion of Wheeler (and others) that also see him (and more of the other prospects).
Sure, he would very well get a pro contract in a few years and play in the AHL, like another prominent captain of a development team, Phil Kemp.
I have higher hopes for Munzenbruger than I do of Kemp (and than Wheeler does) but, again, i am simply a fan watching games and can’t honestly discount the opinion and analysis of those like Wheeler.
We’ll have a much better idea after this hockey season. Given the difference in minor hockey in Germany vs that in Canada makes his skill level at this time quite impressive. The college route seems perfectly suited for his continued development.
I’m really looking forward to seeing which prospects make a push this fall. There is a nice pipeline of prospects trying out for only a few spots. I love that stat that Stauffer put out there that the Oilers are the only team in the league not to trade their first round pick in the last 10 years. Normally the Oilers are at the opposite end of good drafting stats. Lets keep that streak alive and our Stanley cup window open longer. I’d rather see Holland try a guy like Kessel for cheap than trade a bunch of assets for Kane.
In the fall, I would suggest Broberg, Samorukov, Nimelainen and Deharnais will “push” with the first two making the roster and Niemelainen definitely playing games this season. Dehernais is a dark-horse for some game as a result of lack of a legit 4RD option.
I would suggest Bourgault, Holloway and Benson pushing. I think all three see NHL games this season, Bourgualt as a call-up, Holloway in the fall/early winter but not necessarily October 12. I wouldn’t be surprised if Benson and his $750K impacts the roster early.
That 5 on 5 production sticks out like a sore thumb for Nuge and its a couple season’s running now so its a concern.
At the same time, he has four seasons over 1.9 P/60 and he’s only 29 (for the entirety of the regular season).
No doubt he can get back to being a plus producer at evens – whether as a winger with an elite center or centering a 3rd line with legit skilled wingers now.
He CAN do it, but will WILL he do it? Here is hoping!
He’s great on the PP, and can PK, and doesn’t hurt the team 5on5, but RNH has always been subpar at 5 on 5 production.
He’s dependable but he needs guys that can produce ES on his line or nothing gets done in that regard.
Holloway and Puljujarvi. 😉
4 years of 1.9 P/60 (one over 2) – I wouldn’t say he’s always been “subpar”. I don’t think that every player needs to be the “driver” in order to considered a top 6 producer.
Yeah but if you look at his teammates during his good years of points/60 you will see he was vastly outperformed in almost all cases by his linemates.
I would stand by the statement that his ES production is subpar given the history of his role and line mates.
Sure, that’s a fine point but I stand by my opinion that complimentary producer on a scoring line driven by linemates is still value for that production. I’m going to guess that, when playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle, Nuge was doing quite a bit of the lifting from the blue line in (while acknowledging that Hall drove the play).
That’s not really true.
The 4 years:
11-12
Nuge 1.95 P/60
Linemates >200min, in order:
Eberle 3.04
Hall 2.12
(his rookie year it was true)
14-15
Nuge 1.91 P/60
Linemates:
Eberle 1.98
Hall 1.91
Pouliot 1.93
Purcell 1.11
(Nuge was a full and equal contributor here)
17-18
Nuge 1.96 P/60
Linemates:
Lucic 1.30
Maroon 1.76
McDavid 3.17 (just under 25% of Nuge’s TOI)
(the time with McDavid was a big boost, but he was being dragged down by Lucic and others this year)
19-20
Nuge 2.23 P/60
Linemates:
Draisaitl 2.89
Yamamoto 3.16
Neal 0.94
Chiasson 0.87 (197 min)
19-20 was the tale of 2 seasons. Clearly pumped by Draisaitl/Yamamoto. Clearly dragged down by Neal/Chiasson.
The 30 games after Yamamoto’s recall though:
Nuge 3.40
Draisaitl 3.01
Yamamoto 3.16
Crazy that Nuge and Yamamoto both outscored (rates) Draisaitl during that run. Nuge was most definitely not a passenger though.
Anyway, the only season I think it’s fair to say he was being vastly outperformed by a linemate was in 11-12 by one of his linemates (Eberle).
I’ve often wondered what was the driver behind the divergent paths that Nuge’s career has followed compared to Mitch Marner. On their respective draft days, if you squint they look like reasonable facsimiles of each other. It feels like Nuge had the tools to accomplish more offensively than he has to date.
What were Marner’s number like in junior? I know Nuge feasted on the PP (similar to the NHL in some years) – no idea about Marner….
It’s just what they are as players
Nuge is a thinking player with ranging ability, decent skill and skating for a skill player
Marner is more dynamic and a lot quicker and more aggressive in style. And shoots better
Nuge said he likes skating shooting wingers, but hat he isn’t, he can set them up
Absolutely, we are 2-3 years from even signing the young Fin (likely) – let him progress, year after year, at Vermont – the benefit of drafting NCAA players, the runway for signing.
Will be keeping my eyes on Vermont and Munzenburger and Maatta under the tutelage of Todd Woodcroft.
I think about how Horcoff was viewed by many in Oil Country and, after he signed the big contract he was under-appreciated for what he did on the ice and what role he played as it was viewed in relation to a bloated contract.
We are seeing the next version in real time vis-a-vis Darnell Nurse and his new contract – there will be some (many) that simply won’t, or can’t, appreciate the play on the ice given the contract.
Both Horcoff and Nurse signing contracts that were almost impossible to out perform (and very hard to just provide value for) and both player asked to do a bit more than one would hope. Horcoff for sure, playing 1C was simply too much. Nurse is a legit top pairing guy but the Klefbom injury changed his role and importance – He and Klef would have provided amazing cover for each other as 1/2LD helping each other’s minutes and role.
a MAIN difference, prior to the contract, Horcoff was appreciated in real time whereas Nurse never was. Nurse has provided the Oilers with 7 years of outperforming his contract but many couldn’t appreciate it as they were always in fear of “the next contract”.
Nurse is indeed a legit top pairing d-man but maybe not a “true #1” (although I don’t know if anyone can name even close to 32 d-man “better than him).
Just looking at on-ice play in isolation, Nurse is almost assuredly overpaid by a bit at $9.25MM but looking at his role and what he brings to this team, both on and off the ice, he’s an enormous piece of this team’s success.
A critical point many haters of Nurse’s contract seem to ignore is that Nurse was willing to sign long term to stay in Edmonton. Can you imagine the gaping hole of D if they let him walk? I think it’s extremely doubtful:
a) the team could have found a better D willing to sign with the Oilers;
b) whoever would have been signed to replace him would have been signed to a FMV contract; and
c) fans would be happy with the assets sent out in any trade to try and replace him.
He didn’t set the market price for his services, so why hate on him for it? We’d all take the highest salary we could possibly get at our jobs no?
The timing was unfortunate from the team’s perspective as the market was at a high point for dmen. Waiting carried dangers and not moving earlier was a missed opportunity.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
Doc walks, think Oil would have had to make a move for what’s-his-face* in AZ. And pay full price.
* my spelling can be terrible and sometimes i don’t try.
This is true but I would note that in his interview shortly after the re-sign he said/admitted straight up that he was looking for an apx 4 year term until the market got re-set with Jones, etc.
I would love it if he came in at, say, $7.75MM but its not the case and this is not the place where I’m going to have heartburn over an overpay. Every cap dollar matters, yes, but this player is going to be massively important to team and organizational success over the next 8 seasons. His value is more than just the minutes he plays on the ice and I am surely not going to yell “9.5 MILLION for THAT” every time he ices the puck or shoots the puck near the chest protector.
I recall him saying he was looking for a 4 year deal, and the team pushed for longer. But was he explicit about the ‘market re-set/Jones deal’ part?
I took it at the time as Nurse wanting his deal to end the same time as McDavid’s and also allowing him another big payday (he’d have just turned 31 when a 4 year deal was expiring). And Holland on the other side favouring a deal that kept Nurse an Oiler beyond McDavid’s deal expiring.
My take is a guess at the reasons behind the 4 vs. 8 year deal, obviously. I think your saying it was related to a market re-set and/or Jone’s deal is also a guess, but perhaps I’m forgetting some details that were said/reported?
My recollection is, yes, as I somewhat vividly remember where I was when I hear it and thinking to myself it was a boldly honest.
I have no doubt he wanted to line the contract expiry up with the big 2 (he all but said that when he talked about the 4 year term) and he pretty much said the spike in the market changed his thought on term (in different words) – I’d have to go back and find the interview to say for sure what he said but I’m fairly confident in what I remember hearing.
OK, thanks. If you do remember/find exactly where you heard that I’d be interested to read/listen.
I wonder what the AAV on a 4 year deal would have looked like (I guess before the Heiskanen, Jones, Makar, Hamilton and Werenski deals were signed).
Sorry OP, I have to disagree.
I believe Horcoff was value for the money he signed for *on the day of his signing*. He had come off of two point-per-game seasons in the past three, on an outscoring power-vs-power line (the most advanced stats at the time). The problem was that Horcoff got injured in the All-Star game during his contract year, and was never the same after. The team couldn’t have really known that.
By contrast, Nurse’s deal was known not to be value for money on the day he signed, and many of us pointed that out. Nurse’s shooting percentage that year was higher than Taylor Hall and Nathan MacKinnon’s career shooting percentage. That lack of value for money is now evident. Would Nurse have gotten that much on the open market in July 2022? I’d say very unlikely.
I still love Nurse the player, and he is a key guy for us.
I don’t love the Nurse contract (to put it mildly). I think the Oilers could have and should have known better on the day they signed it.
I don’t think the same was true of Horcoff’s contract.
We are entering what could be an embarrassment of riches in player talent at seemingly all positions. How well this translates to success as an organization is dependant to a large extent on the ability of the coach and GM to make the correct judgement on the talent level and readiness of the young players pushing for jobs. It is a great time to be an Oiler fan!
So true on both counts.
It’s really nice to see Maatta against his peers and showing a pulse offensively.
His main value is clearly not offensive though. For me at least this tournament has given a much better appreciation of why the Oilers spent a pick on him, even if he remains very much of a long shot.
I think Aapeli Räsänen is a recent comparable. In his two world juniors he scored 6:2-4-6 and 5:4-0-4, while being given significant minutes and the trust of his coaches. He has been a good college player, but is now 24 and still unsigned.
I think Finland makes their junior players look very strong because of their overall skill level and strong team play at that level. Puljujarvi, Aho and Laine are strong players in the NHL, but their world juniors were unreal. Also, not one team in the league could tell it was actually the little guy stirring that drink.
Rasanen is a very apt comparable – great job.
I remember REALLY liking his play during his World Junior stints – in his last tournament he was a total “all-situations center” for Finland – top 6, PK1, PP1, important faceoffs, etc., etc. Not too much different from how Maatta was used in this tournament (although I would say that Rasanen was more relied upon as a top player).
Rasanen was a watch and monitor for me but he never really “popped” at Boston College until they moved him to wing and, at that point, the NHL dream was essentially over.
Now its watch and monitor for Maatta at Vermont – the chances of an NHL career remain slim but early arrow up which is all we can ask for at this point.
Yes, Rasanen is a good comparable. He’s not close to an NHLer, but he’s turned into a pretty good SM-Liiga player at least.
Not trying to pump Maatta up as a prospect of note, but a better understanding of what got him drafted is nice, and a little offense is a good arrow for a guy who hasn’t shown much of it any level.
Love to see players flourish at all levels, great for organizational depth, but Maatta not even a blip on my radar, yet, when considering the Bigs.
The amount of points #83 would have had with capable linemates is almost painful to contemplate.
Add in the fact that he bailed out every C he ever played with in the defensive zone …maybe they’ll one day be able to retroactively apply/find a stat that would show his outsized impact and the specific situations he altered so much.
Them not getting this poor guy one shooter…heaven forbid a C who could actually convert from 10 feet and in…shame.
Horcoff was both loved and resented as a journey of a player. He seemed to steadily grow as a player from the fourth line to third to eventually first. Always matching up against the Avs and Stars felt like a similar fight.
Horcoff represented that oilers era perfectly. Hard nosed team, did all the little things right, but also a real and definitely ceiling on those skills. The leader of a blue collar bunch who was judged for not being as skilled as the opponents they faced off against.
It also was an era of extreme loyalty to a fault. That included not only elevating players beyond their limits on the ice, but also in the front offices. Horcoff bled copper and blue for years, and it seemed inevitable the team would reward him with more. It stopped at a first line role (which was too high) but I always assumed it would be a lifelong gig.
As much as I appreciated the heart he gave the team, the current org is finally beyond the confines of that era. From elevating top line players, to coaches and GMs; it may not be evolving as fast as fans would like, but now that the team seems to at least hire with a track record of success instead of relying solely on blood and sweat. The blood and sweat are still welcome, but the org is nearly there where success and capability matter.
Still, beauty of a player, wish we had 3 on this team (just in the bottom 6).
Watching some world junior this past week it was amazing how many talented players that are out there. No longer is it just Canada, Sweden, Russia and US with talented players. The gap seems to be closing with other Euro teams really improving their competitiveness.
The Czechia team was fun, and I felt the games between lesser nations (hockey wise) were more entertaining and had real talent.
I don’t disagree with position but some of the top teams were missing some top end player, Canada alone had the following opt out: Power, Perfetti, Wright, Neighbours, Guenther, Xavier Bourgault, Mavrik Bourque, etc.
Team Sweden yesterday didn’t have 2/3 of their top line: Raymond and Holtz.
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Czechia was fun – I saw them live twice (SF vs. Canada and the Bronze Medal game) – Bruce M. accompanied me to the game yesterday and we were definitely pro Czechia.