This is the ‘riesen to believe’ from September 3, 2017, and you can see the storm clouds forming. Young blue pushing up the depth chart, injured veterans gone with no real idea about date of return, luck possibly running out from another veteran and a fascinating bet on a puck mover who never got a chance. Oh, those memories.
In 2016-17, the top pair (Klefbom-Larsson) played vs elites over 490 minutes and sawed off (just shy of 50 percent DFF) with 61 percent goal share. Sekera and Russell played over 400 minutes, about 48 percent DFF, and a goal share in the 60’s. The following year, Nurse played 540 minutes versus elites, had a 50.3 percent DFF and 56 percent goal share. He has been quality since (55 percent goal share versus elites).
NEW for @TheAthleticNHL As training camp arrives, Edmonton Oilersβ right wing options on skill lines may be shifting. Could there be loud noises? https://t.co/1UGkj7sKVy
Jack Campbell, 30. A .914 save percentage in all situations ranked him No. 17 among starters (Mike Smith was .915, No. 15). If he starts 50 games, and wins over 30, this is a winning bet. 100 percent
Stuart Skinner, 23. His .913 SP in the NHL over 13 games is a solid introduction and he has delivered for two AHL seasons. 90 percent
Calvin Pickard, 30. He played just three NHL games last season, but 43 solid AHL outings (.918). 10 percent.
Ryan Fanti, 22. Looked good at young starts in Penticton, only quibble is rebound control.
Olivier Rodrigue, 22. Rodrigue hasn’t played much as a pro he needs to get into 30+ games in one city and see how he shines. He should do what Nelson Santovenia did in 1987.
LEFT DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse, 27. 9-26-35 in 71 games and a 54 percent goal share at even strength. Plays 25 minutes a night, big minutes against elites. He is mobile, rugged and plays a strong two-way game. 100 percent
Brett Kulak, 28. He scored 5-16-21 in 74 games for two teams in 2021-22. Kulak has great wheels and can defend, does not play a pronounced physical game. 100 percent.
Philip Broberg, 21. He gained 22 pounds this summer. He played well in the AHL and late-season NHL, there’s always a little doubt about rookie blue. 90 percent
Ryan Murray, 28. He’s insurance against Broberg, or the next Kris Russell, but he’s really an injury-plagued defenseman with a Stanley Cup ring. 60 percent
Dmitri Samorukov, 23. Heβs waiver eligible, and played extremely well in the second half for the Bakersfield Condors. Heβll need to wow the coaches in camp, but heβs capable. 40 percent
Markus Niemelainen, 24. Big defenseman is a spectacular open-ice hitter but has some coverage gaps. 5 percent.
Slater Koekkoek, 28. Veteran of 186 NHL games hasnβt played well for the Oilers and left the team in late January. We could see something today on him. 5 percent.
RIGHT DEFENSE
Cody Ceci, 28. 5-23-28 in 78 games, and partnering expertly with Nurse on the top pair. Edmonton badly needs him to be healthy and as effective as he was in 2021-22. 100 percent.
Evan Bouchard, 22. He scored 12-31-43 in 81 games one year ago and settled in defensively. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction. 100 percent.
Tyson Barrie, 31. His performance later in the regular season and in the playoffs was impressive. Barrie finished 7-34-41 in 73 games. 90 percent.
Jason Demers, 34. Veteran comes in on a PTO and has a brief chance to show he can help. He could occupy the Russell role this coming season, that’s probably the outer marker. 25 percent
Vincent Desharnais, 26. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) who plays with an edge. Injured. 5 percent.
Mike Kesselring, 22. He has been progressing since turning pro, looked great in Penticton. 5 percent.
Phil Kemp, 23. Young defender with shutdown ability unlikely to play in NHL this season. 1 percent.
CENTER
Connor McDavid, 25. He’s the best. 100 percent.
Leon Draisaitl, 26. The big man should be good for 50 goals again in 2022-23. 100 percent.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 29. Heβs a terrific player, a special teams maniac. 100 percent.
Devin Shore, 28. He was a Dave Tippett guy, we donβt know if heβs a Woodcroft guy. 60 percent.
Greg McKegg, 30. He scored 2-3-5 in 43 games a year ago. 20 percent.
Brad Malone, 33. Woodcroft has confidence in him, so we could see him in the NHL this year. 5 percent.
Noah Philp, 23. Heβs a RH center in a pool of lefties, thatβs an advantage. 4 percent.
LEFT WING
Evander Kane, 31. He needs to be consistent, play his rugged style and avoid suspensions. 100 percent.
Ryan McLeod, 22. Expect a spike in offense (9-12-21 in 71 games last year). 100 percent.
Warren Foegele, 26. He scored well enough (12-14-26 in 82 games) for a third-line winger but the five-on-five goal differential (37-54, 46 percent) was a little shy. 100 percent.
Mattias Janmark, 29. Heβs a solid veteran role player, having scored 9-16-25 in 67 games one year ago. 100 percent.
Dylan Holloway, 20. Speedy winger with great passing, he was outstanding in Penticton. 60 percent.
Tyler Benson, 24. He scored 29, 1-1-2 one year ago. 5 percent
James Hamblin, 23. A speed merchant with enough skill to score 21 AHL goals a year ago. 2 percent.
RIGHT WING
Zach Hyman, 30. He posted career best totals (27-27-54 in 76 games) and then popped 11 playoff goals. 100 percent.
Kailer Yamamoto, 23. He scored 20-21-41 in 81 games, the most encouraging part of last season was his ability to remain in the lineup. 100 percent.
Jesse Puljujarvi, 24. He scored 14-22-36 in 65 games last season, and owned a 65 percent goal share at five-on-five. A highly productive player in his prime. 80 percent.
Derek Ryan, 35. He scored 10-12-22 in 75 games last season, the Oilers probably want him more as a fourth-line winger than a third-line player. 70 percent.
Jake Virtanen, 26. PTO, he could slide in as an extra forward. 10 percent.
Xavier Bourgault, 19. High skill in an area of need. 2 percent
Seth Griffith, 29. He fashioned an outstanding AHL season in Bakersfield. 2 percent
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A big day with the Oilers training camp, we’ll find out about all manner of things and cover it closely. Reports from the rink, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, and more. Plus NFL, Blue Jays and Els. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Per Friedman, looking like McLeod is about to be signed at 1 year near $800K.
I mentioned yesterday it could come in WAY lower than the $1MM mark.
Hart at puckpedia crunched the numbers on air with Stauff a couple of days ago and we are literally in to the singles of thousands – $790K vs. $830K could make a difference of ability to keep Malone or McKegg vs. Benson for example or have room for Shore at $850K
Clearly they are down to singles of thousands with a certain lineup if everyone makes it through camp healthy.
Munny 2.0
September 21, 2022 10:21 pm
I’m still trying to get over the announcement that Smith has failed his physical.
I didn’t see that coming. I mean… We’re friggin doomed!!! Just stick a fork in the season right now.
π
I’m an Oilers fan. I have no idea how to enter training camp without excessive hand-wringing, brow-mopping… and the consumption of copious amounts of pharmaceutical-grade tranquilizers. Don’t make me start now.
Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
theDjdj
September 21, 2022 9:43 pm
Random Proposition: the change of Home jersey back to Blue will improve our Special teams. I remember a few years back we had a trend of terrific away special teams and awful home special teams. Couldnβt really account for it as it was the exact same team. My theory is that our jerseys being bright orange triggers a deeply instinctual mammalian reflex in the brain that triggers warning before the message is even contextualised in the neocortex. Orange being a colour in nature that commonly warns predators of poison. Just a thought.
and special teams specifically because the game state encourages a far more reactive play style. Basically, defenders react quicker to our orange jerseys than they do blue or white dominated ones. Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk.
Looks like we’re waiting on four teams to announce their training camp rosters: New Jersey NY Islanders Chicago Edmonton
I Wunder
September 21, 2022 7:25 pm
I’m just catching up with the news, RE MacKinnon’s new contract. There was chat yesterday about it, but I’m wondering if anyone knows why most of his millions will come as signing bonuses? Why is his base salary over a million on only one year? And why is so much paid (45m) in the first three years? Thank you muchly.
Its part of the agreement between management and player.
From management High signing bonus signal 1) lots of cash on hand and we pay our stars, 2) “we believe in you.” From player its a way to make sure the team stays interested in you. First there are only a few teams that can afford massive outlays on July 1 and as the base salary climbs later it makes the contract a lot harder to move and/or dispose of in a buyout.
Its a way to guarantee the marriage lasts and keep everyone happy.
Only available to the Elite of the Elite though.
Spartacus
September 21, 2022 7:14 pm
Funny, I’m seeing an ad for a Campit camping box.
Now there’s a perfect ad for this site.
I imagined it would be bigger. Like car-top size.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2022 5:03 pm
1) Nurse seemed pissy in his media avail today and, honestly, he seemed that way down he stretch and in the playoffs. Not just “focussed” or “serious” but somewhat “pissy”. Now, its probably not a big deal, and maybe I’m making this up in my head, but his “personality” seems to have shifted over the last 6-8 months. Yes, I know, dealing with the media can be tiresome, annoying, repetitive, etc. but its the first day of camp and he STILL seems “pissy”.
2) Holland has said a few times, Holloway won’t be on the roster unless he’s playing every night and in the top 9. I totally get that but damn if the 4C isn’t a position with no real player (presuming one of Nuge/ McLeod is on the wing). Its too bad that he won’t be given any PP or PK time as that could make up for some lower 5 on 5 minutes (and I think a reason that McLeod could play 4C as he’s a top PK guy now and also a top PP2 guy).
A 4th line of Janmark/Holloway/Ryan is one that could take a regular shift though….. (although with Holloway being at $925K, I can’t see both him and Ryan on the roster without a trade).
3) One minute I’m thinking Broberg can push for 2LD minutes during parts of this year and the next minute I’m wondering if he’s going to struggle playing every night in the NHL – I don’t really know what to expect from him in October, January or April. Probably a mix of both, right?
Well I watched that interview and he did not seem pissy to me. He seemed like he’s kicking asses and taking numbers. These guy know they deserved better last season but injuries cost them. The injuries were the result of having to fight every game the last 30 to make the playoffs and be ready. They are going to come out and settle the playoff question early and then prepare for the playoffs. Make sure they are as healthy as possible.
Great song. Trivia time: On the same Alice Cooper album came a song called “Hello, Hurray” a tune that saw a lot of airplay in Canada. Why? CANCON! Words and music by Rolf Kempf and produced by Bob Ezrin. Three parts of the MAPL foursome!!
I was suggesting Janmark Holloway Ryan thing as a post New Year 4th line, if Holloway was sent down to be #1C in Bakersfield till Christmas.
But it looks like Holloway is not going to get a shot a centre initially.
OmJo
September 21, 2022 4:58 pm
“I don’t want players to be safe.” – Ken Holland, 2022
OmJo
September 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Sound like Woodcroft was involved in the Demers PTO. I like what Holland said about that… even if he doesn’t make this team, he might impress another team and earn himself a contract. Treating players like people instead of just assets. McCrimmon/McPhee should take notes.
Mayan Oil
September 21, 2022 2:39 pm
Team site video says 17 D and 30 C/W at camp, LT’s list shows 14 D and 21 C/W. WHo are the other names? I can’t find a camp list anywhere! Anyone have good info on this?
By the way, 2025, is that still the estimation of when the cap could really start to take a big jump?
So I would say we exceeded our expectations this year on revenue. And even our forecast, which is done fairly late in the season, we exceeded pretty dramatically. So a lot of the escrow balance actually got paid back this year, certainly more of it than we had originally projected. I think the most likely answer is, weβre tying the cap to revenues again in the summer of 2024. Which would mean one more year of a million dollar increase in the summer of 2023, and then a tied cap starting in 2024. So, I think, thatβs the most likely scenario at this point.
———
Also from the piece – don’t expect details injury updates any time in the near future.
The one area of our lives where inflation is helping lol…
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2022 1:17 pm
1) Al, may I ask why you have Skinner at 90% and not 100% – do you think there is a 10% chance they waive him in favour of Pickard? I can’t imagine that scenario.
2) Little typo, 12 pound weight gain for Broberg – 22 would be a bit concerning, lol.
3)Cody Ceci, 28. 5-23-28 in 78 games, and partnering expertly with Nurse on the top pair. Edmonton badly needs him to be healthy and as effective as he was in 2021-22. 100 percent.
and he’s got a hamstring injury……. only supposed to be off skates for 3 days but….. it starts.
4) I’d put Shore down to near 20% – his $850K hurts him – Benson is $100K cheaper, for example, and I think that might make a real difference.
5) Interesting that you have Nuge as a C and McLeod as LW. I think both players will play both positions but I think mostly the other way.
6) I think Derek Ryan’s spot is in real jeopardy solely due to cap hit. Stauff mentioned waiving a “$1.25MM player” and it won’t be Janmark and, well, Virtanen, Malone, Griffith, etc. save app $400K on Ryan – I don’t like it, it downgrades the team, but It might be done.
Having listened to Holland’s avail:
1) damn he did not answer the Virtanen questions well.
2) it didn’t quite sound like he has a deal done with McLeod and he’s just been trying to figure out how much space he might have and if he can fit in a multi-year deal – sounds like there may be some work to do (but that it should get done).
3) Damn, two players knocked out in Penticton, Tulio and Savoie. Sounds like Tulio is good to go for camp but Savoie is still “waiting for test results” – ugh… Hope its nothing long term that will cause him to miss his first training camp, let alone the start of the Condors’ season. Not a huge deal as he’s not an NHL option this season but, damn, these are good development days.
4) Bob Nicholson will appear before the Heritage Committee in early August. So much criticism of the Edmonton media for not asking him questions and tough questions, etc. but, come on, lets be real here, I don’t think even the likes of Rishaug, Matty, Spec, etc. can just force comments on the record from Nicholson and what do we expect, them to call out Nicholson when speaking to the Iikes of Holland?
5) Nice spot by DNB on the show and it seems now the general Oilers media is live to the emergency recall rules, and Holland even alluded to them specifically. Yes, I’m going to toot my own horn here as I researched them a month ago an provided the criteria and how it would work in practice.
I am by no means a professional athlete, but when I started doing some weight lifting 3 days a week I gained 20 pounds over a couple of months. I have no clue where it went but it was a surprising gain and I didn’t feel anything weird health wise and wasn’t taking any PEDs. Maybe Broberg had a similar response if he started committing more to weight training.
Given where Phillip was 6 months ago, it would probably be impossible to gain 22 pounds of muscle and, really, I don’t think he gained 12 pounds of muscle – a bunch of that wait gain is likely water and glycogen – its all good though, its all “good weight” – muscle and non-fat bulk (probably a little fat though).
Are you suggesting what I think your suggesting for the young man.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2022 11:31 am
Well, that is a lot of info to start the day.
1) We knew Koekkoek wouldnβt be on the roster or effect the cap. We now know heβs dealing with mental health issues (and likely what the personal leave was last season). Hope he is doing ok and gets back to a good place.
2) Sounds like McLeod should be signed in the next bit here and wonβt miss any on ice time. He may be ground more than anticipated. Hart had the numbers crunched with Stauff yesterday and there is actually a real difference between $790K and $830K with who can fit on a 21 player roster – itβs that tight.
3) No surprise that Foegele is slated for some right wing reps. Either him or Hyman to provide the fourth right winger and they are still 4LW deep plus Holloway. Amazing depth.
4) Janmark at $1.25MM is not an issue – thatβs Likely a big value contract. Itβs fine if Holloway May start in the AHl. Injuries WILL happen (Ceci is already hurt, for example) and having this amazing LW depth is fantastic.
5) Jesse Puljujarvi is real and he may be spectacular and he is a great fit at any of 1RW, 2RW or 3RW.
6) canβt wait to see how Woody deploys the camp roster in like rushes. Do the likes of Tulio, Bourgault, Holloway, etc. get reps up the lineup and some shifts with the starts or simply who they might play with realistically?
LadiesloveSmid
September 21, 2022 11:26 am
LT,
37-54 goal differential for Foegele would put him at 40.66% not 46%.
There are no cap implications. It will be fully buried in the AHL.
Given the intel that he will be away from the team working on his mental health, no, I don’t think he will be waived/assigned – I don’t think they could actually do that as, essentially, he’s an “injured player” – he’ll likely be on LTIR and, given the team will already otherwise be in LTIR, for the purposes of the cap, its essentially the same thing as if he was assigned – his cap hit will essentially be buried.
So I don’t have the understanding of LTIR that you have, but if they are able to place KK on it, wouldn’t that theoretically enable the Oilers to have another $1 million (or whatever his salary is) to fit another play onto the roster? Might come in handy.
So I donβt have the understanding of LTIR that you have, but if they are able to place KK on it, wouldnβt that theoretically enable the Oilers to have another $1 million (or whatever his salary is) to fit another play onto the roster? Might come in handy.
No, it would not. Nobody’s calculation of the cap has included Koekkoek on it. The premise was that he’d be waived/assigned (and his cap hit fully buried) or put on LTIR.
If he is waived/assigned, as most presumed, his cap hit just disappears. Now, that won’t happen but he’ll be on LTIR. Yes, that will allow the team to go over the cap by an additional $925K but, at the same time, the cap calculation includes his $925K (its not removed like it would have been if he was in the AHL) – its a net zero.
Just caught some of Holland’s presser. Said ideally he and McLeod wanted to do a 2 or 3 year deal but because he hasn’t been able to make a trade it was probably going to be one year and that the same thing he had to do to Yamamoto last year was going to have to happen to McLeod – he was going to have to take less because that is what the team could afford. Also said he values McLeod highly going forward but it is what it is. Doesn’t see a problem with the signing.
So now everything is falling into place for the most likely of all scenarios. McLeod at $900k with a bet on himself. This is for the best. Stay hungry young man.
Think they could at least give him a gas card or something.
teddyturnbuckle
September 21, 2022 10:43 am
Funny story about Chara since he retired yesterday. I grew up in Prince George BC and am about the same age as Zdeno. In my grade 12 year Chara played for the Cougars and attended my high school. I had never met him before and don’t recall seeing him around much as he was probably pretty busy with his junior schedule. One day I was eating lunch in the cafeteria with my friend Manny. Manny was your typical class clown and at times bordered on being a bit of a bully. I remember Manny opening his lunch bag and cursing his mom on her choice of the meat she put in his sandwich. Being the attention seeking kid he proceeded to take out the Bologna from his bread and “skyhooked ” it towards the garbage can 15 feet away. His aim was well off and the Bologna disappeared into the crowded tables behind us. I didn’t see where it landed and continued on eating my lunch like everything was fine. A few seconds later I remember sensing a giant shadow appear behind us as I was sitting beside Manny. When I turned around there was a Giant human being standing there holding the Bologna. I immediately shrunk down in my seat and pulled a full on Lloyd from dumb and dumber pointing to my friend Manny. “IS THIS YOUR MEAT?” Chara asked in a loud terminator voice. You could now hear a pin drop in what was a once a bustling cafateria. “umm.. yes it is”, said Manny. Chara then proceeded to put the Bolonga back into Manny’s sandwich with an extra squish on top. “Thank you sir”, said a sheepish Manny who was now white as a ghost. Chara headed back to his seat and that would end up being the only time either one of us interacted with him. Of all the people in the cafateria its funny that the Bolonga had to land on Chara.
I immediately shrunk down in my seat and pulled a full on Lloyd from dumb and dumber pointing to my friend Manny.
Kick his ass, Z-Bass!
Great story.
jp
September 21, 2022 10:37 am
Warren Foegele, 26.
100 percent.
Curious if this is a typo, or if you think Foegele will not be traded. (You do have Puljujarvi and Barrie nicked due to the trade worry)
jp
September 21, 2022 10:34 am
Jake V., 26. PTO, he could slide in as an extra forward. 10 percent.
It doesnβt matter, but I really believe heβs got a better than 50% chance of making the team, and being in the opening night lineup for that matter.
The $750,000 contract that he will be offered if he is offered any contract at all increases his chances of making this team by quite a bit above 10% imo. We aren’t just in ‘who is the better player’ territory with the current cap situation – we are in the ‘who can we afford who can do the job’ conversation.
If Jake is in shape physically as well as mentally heβs exactly what the Oilers need up front on the right side. Meat and potatoes at no frills prices.
And I also think JV is a better player (or at minimum brings different elements) than Shore, McKegg, Malone, Benson, who are his competition for a roster/lineup spot.
I agree with JP and defmn, I think the apx $400K of cap savings over Ryan for that 4RW is going to factor in to the October 12 lineup. It could be JV but it also could be Griffith, McKegg, Malone, etc.
I’m loathe to lose Ryan off the lineup – PK and right shot face-offs. He’ll be back (presuming he clears waivers) but this is not something that makes the team better (but its better than moving Jesse out for cents on the dollar, for example).
I’m not positive that JV is exactly what the team needs, even if he’s in shape and giving full effort. I will need to see him play to formulate my own opinion but, from the accounts of various others, if its true that his defensive commitment is worse than Kassian’s and is his overall and defensive “sense” is awful, well, I don’t want the player even if he can score 12G and bang the odd body.
This article’s premace feels like analytics morphed into a game of twister.
Not sure how much predictive power this sort of mashup has. Seasons typically always come down to even strength outscoring, meaning bottom 6 strength, goaltending, are significant metrics in this regard. Then there’s the requisite power play and penalty kill performances. Systems matter too.
Ranking top 100 players in tiers and seeing who got more is a bit simplistic.
Yeah, it’s a strange way of ranking teams that I don’t think bears out in the real world. It also only takes skaters into account and not goalies.
Even if you buy the premise, I’m not sure it weights top tier players enough.
Take Calgary, who are ranked higher than Edmonton on the basis of the top 100 players they own. Would you trade McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse for Huberdeau, Lindholm, Weegar, Kadri, Mangiapane, Hanifin and Andersson and expect to come out of it a better team? I sure wouldn’t!
One thing that struck me was that Nichushkin is included for Colorado but the author does not bother (not mentioned at least) to do the same with regards to Kane and Hyman for the Oilers. Both the Oiler forwards are comparable, if not better than the Colorado forward, I would aver.
I canβt believe Sakic signed him for 8 years at over 6 million. He had a career year at age 27 heβs not getting any better. If over 6 million to max term is the going rate for a 20 Goal winger all I can say is Wowsa.
They needed to create a reason to elevate the Avs up to Stanley Cup favourite status.
Kane will outscore Nichushkin this year and for the next 3 years after that. 4 years from now that Nichushkin contract is going to be an albatross.
If he scores 25 Goals this year does he garner a 8 year contract at 6 million per from any G.M in the league?
Brantford Boy
September 21, 2022 9:23 am
So 30 wins in 50 games for Campbell (60%), that same percentage with Skinner gives us 19 wins… so are we looking at a duplicate of 49-27-6 (104 pts) record for the upcoming season?
I thought this was the Riesen to Believe post not the the Reasonable Expectations!
Depends if your the back-up you might get the dredded 3rd game in 4 nights. Also a back-up can go many days without getting into game action which usually creates rust.
Mayan Oil
September 21, 2022 9:08 am
It’s like Christmas morning waiting for the TC roster to drop… anticipation!
Per Friedman, looking like McLeod is about to be signed at 1 year near $800K.
I mentioned yesterday it could come in WAY lower than the $1MM mark.
Hart at puckpedia crunched the numbers on air with Stauff a couple of days ago and we are literally in to the singles of thousands – $790K vs. $830K could make a difference of ability to keep Malone or McKegg vs. Benson for example or have room for Shore at $850K
Per RIshaug, its done at $798K.
Clearly they are down to singles of thousands with a certain lineup if everyone makes it through camp healthy.
I’m still trying to get over the announcement that Smith has failed his physical.
I didn’t see that coming. I mean… We’re friggin doomed!!! Just stick a fork in the season right now.
π
I’m an Oilers fan. I have no idea how to enter training camp without excessive hand-wringing, brow-mopping… and the consumption of copious amounts of pharmaceutical-grade tranquilizers. Don’t make me start now.
Random Proposition: the change of Home jersey back to Blue will improve our Special teams. I remember a few years back we had a trend of terrific away special teams and awful home special teams. Couldnβt really account for it as it was the exact same team. My theory is that our jerseys being bright orange triggers a deeply instinctual mammalian reflex in the brain that triggers warning before the message is even contextualised in the neocortex. Orange being a colour in nature that commonly warns predators of poison. Just a thought.
and special teams specifically because the game state encourages a far more reactive play style. Basically, defenders react quicker to our orange jerseys than they do blue or white dominated ones. Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk.
Maybe you’re on to something https://www.livescience.com/276-red-outfits-give-athletes-advantage.html
My wife and I have been on this train for a few years now! Back in Blue, gonna make some marginal difference π
Sure enjoy KH interview. Well-spoken and answers many questions with good answers.
Cap Friendly:
Looks like we’re waiting on four teams to announce their training camp rosters: New Jersey NY Islanders Chicago Edmonton
I’m just catching up with the news, RE MacKinnon’s new contract. There was chat yesterday about it, but I’m wondering if anyone knows why most of his millions will come as signing bonuses? Why is his base salary over a million on only one year? And why is so much paid (45m) in the first three years? Thank you muchly.
Signing bonuses are guranteed even if there is a labor dispute. More $$$ earlier is better for Mackinnon (can invest, etc) …
Great contract for Nate
Also, signing bonuses cannot be bought out for savings.
Why would one year have a massive base salary (yr r)
Its part of the agreement between management and player.
From management High signing bonus signal 1) lots of cash on hand and we pay our stars, 2) “we believe in you.” From player its a way to make sure the team stays interested in you. First there are only a few teams that can afford massive outlays on July 1 and as the base salary climbs later it makes the contract a lot harder to move and/or dispose of in a buyout.
Its a way to guarantee the marriage lasts and keep everyone happy.
Only available to the Elite of the Elite though.
Funny, I’m seeing an ad for a Campit camping box.
Now there’s a perfect ad for this site.
I imagined it would be bigger. Like car-top size.
1) Nurse seemed pissy in his media avail today and, honestly, he seemed that way down he stretch and in the playoffs. Not just “focussed” or “serious” but somewhat “pissy”. Now, its probably not a big deal, and maybe I’m making this up in my head, but his “personality” seems to have shifted over the last 6-8 months. Yes, I know, dealing with the media can be tiresome, annoying, repetitive, etc. but its the first day of camp and he STILL seems “pissy”.
2) Holland has said a few times, Holloway won’t be on the roster unless he’s playing every night and in the top 9. I totally get that but damn if the 4C isn’t a position with no real player (presuming one of Nuge/ McLeod is on the wing). Its too bad that he won’t be given any PP or PK time as that could make up for some lower 5 on 5 minutes (and I think a reason that McLeod could play 4C as he’s a top PK guy now and also a top PP2 guy).
A 4th line of Janmark/Holloway/Ryan is one that could take a regular shift though….. (although with Holloway being at $925K, I can’t see both him and Ryan on the roster without a trade).
3) One minute I’m thinking Broberg can push for 2LD minutes during parts of this year and the next minute I’m wondering if he’s going to struggle playing every night in the NHL – I don’t really know what to expect from him in October, January or April. Probably a mix of both, right?
Well I watched that interview and he did not seem pissy to me. He seemed like he’s kicking asses and taking numbers. These guy know they deserved better last season but injuries cost them. The injuries were the result of having to fight every game the last 30 to make the playoffs and be ready. They are going to come out and settle the playoff question early and then prepare for the playoffs. Make sure they are as healthy as possible.
I saw it the same way. Measured, thoughtful and focused.
The window is now, this is as good as it gets, itβs go time. No more Mr. Nice Guy No more Mr.Cleanβ¦
Great song. Trivia time: On the same Alice Cooper album came a song called “Hello, Hurray” a tune that saw a lot of airplay in Canada. Why? CANCON! Words and music by Rolf Kempf and produced by Bob Ezrin. Three parts of the MAPL foursome!!
CANCON, is that still a thing? I have not lived in Canada for 20 years.
Yes.
I was suggesting Janmark Holloway Ryan thing as a post New Year 4th line, if Holloway was sent down to be #1C in Bakersfield till Christmas.
But it looks like Holloway is not going to get a shot a centre initially.
“I don’t want players to be safe.” – Ken Holland, 2022
Sound like Woodcroft was involved in the Demers PTO. I like what Holland said about that… even if he doesn’t make this team, he might impress another team and earn himself a contract. Treating players like people instead of just assets. McCrimmon/McPhee should take notes.
Team site video says 17 D and 30 C/W at camp, LT’s list shows 14 D and 21 C/W. WHo are the other names? I can’t find a camp list anywhere! Anyone have good info on this?
I interviewed both DNB and Gazzola today and they got a list at training camp today.
I liked what I saw in Philp. Why canβt he be 4C. I give it 50%.
I would guard against these types of prognostications based off of NHL exhibition games, let alone, prospect camp games.
Not to mention, he did struggle a bit with the speed and forecheck of the Canucks in the 3rd game (to my eye).
I actually think he has a shot at some NHL games later this year but there are ALOT of steps and tiers to get through first.
Looks like we are still trending towards a real rise in the cap for the 2024/25 season (per Bill Daly):
https://theathletic.com/3601499/2022/09/21/bill-daly-nhl-qa-salary-cap/
By the way, 2025, is that still the estimation of when the cap could really start to take a big jump?
So I would say we exceeded our expectations this year on revenue. And even our forecast, which is done fairly late in the season, we exceeded pretty dramatically. So a lot of the escrow balance actually got paid back this year, certainly more of it than we had originally projected. I think the most likely answer is, weβre tying the cap to revenues again in the summer of 2024. Which would mean one more year of a million dollar increase in the summer of 2023, and then a tied cap starting in 2024. So, I think, thatβs the most likely scenario at this point.
———
Also from the piece – don’t expect details injury updates any time in the near future.
The one area of our lives where inflation is helping lol…
1) Al, may I ask why you have Skinner at 90% and not 100% – do you think there is a 10% chance they waive him in favour of Pickard? I can’t imagine that scenario.
2) Little typo, 12 pound weight gain for Broberg – 22 would be a bit concerning, lol.
and he’s got a hamstring injury……. only supposed to be off skates for 3 days but….. it starts.
4) I’d put Shore down to near 20% – his $850K hurts him – Benson is $100K cheaper, for example, and I think that might make a real difference.
5) Interesting that you have Nuge as a C and McLeod as LW. I think both players will play both positions but I think mostly the other way.
6) I think Derek Ryan’s spot is in real jeopardy solely due to cap hit. Stauff mentioned waiving a “$1.25MM player” and it won’t be Janmark and, well, Virtanen, Malone, Griffith, etc. save app $400K on Ryan – I don’t like it, it downgrades the team, but It might be done.
Having listened to Holland’s avail:
1) damn he did not answer the Virtanen questions well.
2) it didn’t quite sound like he has a deal done with McLeod and he’s just been trying to figure out how much space he might have and if he can fit in a multi-year deal – sounds like there may be some work to do (but that it should get done).
3) Damn, two players knocked out in Penticton, Tulio and Savoie. Sounds like Tulio is good to go for camp but Savoie is still “waiting for test results” – ugh… Hope its nothing long term that will cause him to miss his first training camp, let alone the start of the Condors’ season. Not a huge deal as he’s not an NHL option this season but, damn, these are good development days.
4) Bob Nicholson will appear before the Heritage Committee in early August. So much criticism of the Edmonton media for not asking him questions and tough questions, etc. but, come on, lets be real here, I don’t think even the likes of Rishaug, Matty, Spec, etc. can just force comments on the record from Nicholson and what do we expect, them to call out Nicholson when speaking to the Iikes of Holland?
5) Nice spot by DNB on the show and it seems now the general Oilers media is live to the emergency recall rules, and Holland even alluded to them specifically. Yes, I’m going to toot my own horn here as I researched them a month ago an provided the criteria and how it would work in practice.
if you think a 22 pound weight gain would be concerning, don’t ask about my freshman year at uni
1. Injury. Allowing for injury.
I am by no means a professional athlete, but when I started doing some weight lifting 3 days a week I gained 20 pounds over a couple of months. I have no clue where it went but it was a surprising gain and I didn’t feel anything weird health wise and wasn’t taking any PEDs. Maybe Broberg had a similar response if he started committing more to weight training.
Newbie gains are an entire other story.
Given where Phillip was 6 months ago, it would probably be impossible to gain 22 pounds of muscle and, really, I don’t think he gained 12 pounds of muscle – a bunch of that wait gain is likely water and glycogen – its all good though, its all “good weight” – muscle and non-fat bulk (probably a little fat though).
22 pounds of muscle is a different story for sure.
But as LT was saying
“Philip Broberg, 21. He gained 22 pounds this summer.”
22 pounds doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. Like you say, it is all very likely the good kind of weight.ο»Ώ
Happy birthday to Ryan McLeod.
Reid Schaefer as well – 19 today.
Now c’mon, Holland, and give him a real birthday present
Are you suggesting what I think your suggesting for the young man.
Well, that is a lot of info to start the day.
1) We knew Koekkoek wouldnβt be on the roster or effect the cap. We now know heβs dealing with mental health issues (and likely what the personal leave was last season). Hope he is doing ok and gets back to a good place.
2) Sounds like McLeod should be signed in the next bit here and wonβt miss any on ice time. He may be ground more than anticipated. Hart had the numbers crunched with Stauff yesterday and there is actually a real difference between $790K and $830K with who can fit on a 21 player roster – itβs that tight.
3) No surprise that Foegele is slated for some right wing reps. Either him or Hyman to provide the fourth right winger and they are still 4LW deep plus Holloway. Amazing depth.
4) Janmark at $1.25MM is not an issue – thatβs Likely a big value contract. Itβs fine if Holloway May start in the AHl. Injuries WILL happen (Ceci is already hurt, for example) and having this amazing LW depth is fantastic.
5) Jesse Puljujarvi is real and he may be spectacular and he is a great fit at any of 1RW, 2RW or 3RW.
6) canβt wait to see how Woody deploys the camp roster in like rushes. Do the likes of Tulio, Bourgault, Holloway, etc. get reps up the lineup and some shifts with the starts or simply who they might play with realistically?
LT,
37-54 goal differential for Foegele would put him at 40.66% not 46%.
37-43, 46.25%.
Ya, the 54 looks to be the incorrect number for LT
βHe should do what Nelson Santovenia did in 1987.β
which isβ¦.. (?)
I have absolutely no idea. Thought about it for a sec, maybe look it up? Nope. Don’t think I care……….and on to next sentence
Notes from Ken Holland:
Ceci (hamstring) will miss the first few days of Training Camp
Koekkoek (personal) will be away from the team indefinitely
Smith failed his physical & will be placed on LTIR
Hopeful to have McLeod on the ice tomorrow with a new contract
Wonder if LT knew,
Koeekoek isnβt even on the list.
If Koekkoek is away indefinitely would he be suspended, on regular IR, or LTIR? Just wondering what the cap implications are of his $925k salary.
There are no cap implications. It will be fully buried in the AHL.
Given the intel that he will be away from the team working on his mental health, no, I don’t think he will be waived/assigned – I don’t think they could actually do that as, essentially, he’s an “injured player” – he’ll likely be on LTIR and, given the team will already otherwise be in LTIR, for the purposes of the cap, its essentially the same thing as if he was assigned – his cap hit will essentially be buried.
So I don’t have the understanding of LTIR that you have, but if they are able to place KK on it, wouldn’t that theoretically enable the Oilers to have another $1 million (or whatever his salary is) to fit another play onto the roster? Might come in handy.
No, it would not. Nobody’s calculation of the cap has included Koekkoek on it. The premise was that he’d be waived/assigned (and his cap hit fully buried) or put on LTIR.
If he is waived/assigned, as most presumed, his cap hit just disappears. Now, that won’t happen but he’ll be on LTIR. Yes, that will allow the team to go over the cap by an additional $925K but, at the same time, the cap calculation includes his $925K (its not removed like it would have been if he was in the AHL) – its a net zero.
He wasn’t on Edmonton’s training camp roster, which has been published for some time.
Did not know that. Thank you.
Just caught some of Holland’s presser. Said ideally he and McLeod wanted to do a 2 or 3 year deal but because he hasn’t been able to make a trade it was probably going to be one year and that the same thing he had to do to Yamamoto last year was going to have to happen to McLeod – he was going to have to take less because that is what the team could afford. Also said he values McLeod highly going forward but it is what it is. Doesn’t see a problem with the signing.
Need this damn cap to go up finally. It likely aint next year either.
No, I don’t think we’ll see a big jump until 24-25 at the earliest.
So now everything is falling into place for the most likely of all scenarios. McLeod at $900k with a bet on himself. This is for the best. Stay hungry young man.
Think they could at least give him a gas card or something.
Funny story about Chara since he retired yesterday. I grew up in Prince George BC and am about the same age as Zdeno. In my grade 12 year Chara played for the Cougars and attended my high school. I had never met him before and don’t recall seeing him around much as he was probably pretty busy with his junior schedule. One day I was eating lunch in the cafeteria with my friend Manny. Manny was your typical class clown and at times bordered on being a bit of a bully. I remember Manny opening his lunch bag and cursing his mom on her choice of the meat she put in his sandwich. Being the attention seeking kid he proceeded to take out the Bologna from his bread and “skyhooked ” it towards the garbage can 15 feet away. His aim was well off and the Bologna disappeared into the crowded tables behind us. I didn’t see where it landed and continued on eating my lunch like everything was fine. A few seconds later I remember sensing a giant shadow appear behind us as I was sitting beside Manny. When I turned around there was a Giant human being standing there holding the Bologna. I immediately shrunk down in my seat and pulled a full on Lloyd from dumb and dumber pointing to my friend Manny. “IS THIS YOUR MEAT?” Chara asked in a loud terminator voice. You could now hear a pin drop in what was a once a bustling cafateria. “umm.. yes it is”, said Manny. Chara then proceeded to put the Bolonga back into Manny’s sandwich with an extra squish on top. “Thank you sir”, said a sheepish Manny who was now white as a ghost. Chara headed back to his seat and that would end up being the only time either one of us interacted with him. Of all the people in the cafateria its funny that the Bolonga had to land on Chara.
That is the greatest and most telling off ice hockey anecdote ever.
This is exactly why I enjoy this place so much. Thank you for sharing this.
Oh that is perfect!…what a great story!…bet buddy had to change his shorts up after that one!
Kick his ass, Z-Bass!
Great story.
Curious if this is a typo, or if you think Foegele will not be traded. (You do have Puljujarvi and Barrie nicked due to the trade worry)
It doesnβt matter, but I really believe heβs got a better than 50% chance of making the team, and being in the opening night lineup for that matter.
The $750,000 contract that he will be offered if he is offered any contract at all increases his chances of making this team by quite a bit above 10% imo. We aren’t just in ‘who is the better player’ territory with the current cap situation – we are in the ‘who can we afford who can do the job’ conversation.
If Jake is in shape physically as well as mentally heβs exactly what the Oilers need up front on the right side. Meat and potatoes at no frills prices.
Yup.
And I also think JV is a better player (or at minimum brings different elements) than Shore, McKegg, Malone, Benson, who are his competition for a roster/lineup spot.
I agree with JP and defmn, I think the apx $400K of cap savings over Ryan for that 4RW is going to factor in to the October 12 lineup. It could be JV but it also could be Griffith, McKegg, Malone, etc.
I’m loathe to lose Ryan off the lineup – PK and right shot face-offs. He’ll be back (presuming he clears waivers) but this is not something that makes the team better (but its better than moving Jesse out for cents on the dollar, for example).
I’m not positive that JV is exactly what the team needs, even if he’s in shape and giving full effort. I will need to see him play to formulate my own opinion but, from the accounts of various others, if its true that his defensive commitment is worse than Kassian’s and is his overall and defensive “sense” is awful, well, I don’t want the player even if he can score 12G and bang the odd body.
NHL teams ranked by tiers.
https://theathletic.com/3595935/2022/09/16/nhl-player-rankings-teams/?source=user_shared_article
This article’s premace feels like analytics morphed into a game of twister.
Not sure how much predictive power this sort of mashup has. Seasons typically always come down to even strength outscoring, meaning bottom 6 strength, goaltending, are significant metrics in this regard. Then there’s the requisite power play and penalty kill performances. Systems matter too.
Ranking top 100 players in tiers and seeing who got more is a bit simplistic.
Yeah, it’s a strange way of ranking teams that I don’t think bears out in the real world. It also only takes skaters into account and not goalies.
Even if you buy the premise, I’m not sure it weights top tier players enough.
Take Calgary, who are ranked higher than Edmonton on the basis of the top 100 players they own. Would you trade McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse for Huberdeau, Lindholm, Weegar, Kadri, Mangiapane, Hanifin and Andersson and expect to come out of it a better team? I sure wouldn’t!
Calgary higher than Edmonton means the fools making this so called evaluation are on Thai Sticks.
graduated from high school in 1969. in Vancouver we called them lunch
One thing that struck me was that Nichushkin is included for Colorado but the author does not bother (not mentioned at least) to do the same with regards to Kane and Hyman for the Oilers. Both the Oiler forwards are comparable, if not better than the Colorado forward, I would aver.
I canβt believe Sakic signed him for 8 years at over 6 million. He had a career year at age 27 heβs not getting any better. If over 6 million to max term is the going rate for a 20 Goal winger all I can say is Wowsa.
They needed to create a reason to elevate the Avs up to Stanley Cup favourite status.
Kane will outscore Nichushkin this year and for the next 3 years after that. 4 years from now that Nichushkin contract is going to be an albatross.
Incredible that people around the league think Puljujarvi isn’t worth a 2nd round pick at just $3M.
If he scores 25 Goals this year does he garner a 8 year contract at 6 million per from any G.M in the league?
So 30 wins in 50 games for Campbell (60%), that same percentage with Skinner gives us 19 wins… so are we looking at a duplicate of 49-27-6 (104 pts) record for the upcoming season?
I thought this was the Riesen to Believe post not the the Reasonable Expectations!
Skinner gets the “easier” games so he’ll win a higher percentage π
Depends if your the back-up you might get the dredded 3rd game in 4 nights. Also a back-up can go many days without getting into game action which usually creates rust.
It’s like Christmas morning waiting for the TC roster to drop… anticipation!
Alex Galchenyuk on a PTO in Colorado.
That could be a nice pickup at league minimum.
“He’s the Best”
‘Nuff said
Now I have that song from the original Karate Kid in my head