The Edmonton Oilers didn’t have a lot of gas against the Minnesota Wild last night, there should be no surprise. Klim Kostin scored a goal, played 14:31 at five-on-five, and had a takeaway. If there’s one thing the Oilers could use during this team of injury, it’s for one of these depth forwards to step into a significant role. Godspeed, Klim Kostin.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers look for rugged forward in a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players providing a spark after a slow start
- Lowetide: What could Oilers forward Dylan Holloway accomplish in AHL?
- DNB: Oilers’ win over Rangers shows how valuable secondary scoring can be
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into 2nd decade of being misunderstood
- DNB: Oilers have a long way to go as defensive problems persist
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and early-season trades during road trips
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ lack of secondary scoring is a critical situation
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers trade targets from the AHL
- DNB:How Oilers star Connor McDavid went from poor to unreal in a pivotal win
- DNB and Jesse Granger: Is the Connor McDavid vs. Jack Eichel rivalry finally about to become reality?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers can replace Evander Kane’s production on a budget
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers need to trade for an established defenceman
- Lowetide: What should the Edmonton Oilers expect from Klim Kostin?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers start October slow but finish month strong
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 0-1-0, 0 points in one game
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 13-11-0, 26 points in 24 games
I think last night’s result was predictable and people will put the boots to the group but we all know it was a schedule loss. A brutal road trip comes to an end and this homestand has to be successful for Edmonton. I like their chances. I would play Stuart Skinner often.
SUMMARY
Summarizing!
Brind’Amour fashioned a fine evening, potting the GW goal and an assist in a 2-1 victory. He also went a robust 15-for-22 (68.2%) on the dot.
Petrov and Lachance each garnered a helper.
Chiasson, Mazura, Munzenberger and Maatta (who went 9 of 15, 60% on the dot), were held pointless.
Nashville beats NYI 4-1 to take over the 1st wildcard spot in the WC.
… with 56 games left to go. You get excited quickly, the ladies must love you.
That Campbell contract, eh?
On a positive note, Campbell surely cannot get worse. Right? RIGHT?
I’ve been on the other side of a lot of discussions about goaltending selection with others here, notably JP.
Whichever proprietary method or stat elite teams use to rate one goalie over another, I’m not privy to that nor do I have my own process to make these predictions.
However, as an observer, the smart teams do target goalies under 30 and they make in some cases large sacrifices to mitigate risk. In this case, the very risk we’re talking about is the cap killing $5 x 5.
Sakic paid a king’s ransom for one year of Kuemper last year—in fairness, Holland was bidding on the same player and drove up the price.
The difference between Holland and Sakic here? While Holland was willing to pay a high price for a goalie he could acquire and extend, Sakic was willing to pay the high price for a goalie he could potentially win a cup with that year and walk away from.
Great thoughts
Holland’s risk analysis leaves me meh for this season
His AGM calls Skinner the best player in the A 2 years running. So he signs an unproven guy at the cliff to a long high deal, stating other teams wanted him. Meanwhile McCrimmon in the same position signs a competent guy for the tandem for little risk, and leaves room to manouvre if it fails
Decides Bouch isn’t worth the risk, stating Barrie is good for the PP and is ‘liked’. Kenny is also in a cap crunch. This while stating made of glass Bro of zero NHL traction has to play his way off the team.
Then trades one of the leftorium. So he ends up with 2 guys that need top play 3 RD, neither of whom defend reliably worth a shit at this point 5v5, no 1 RD because his 1 is a 2
He signed Kulak to 4 years who’s highest somewhat established level was of high end 3rd LD. But his other LD (a failed vet and two rookies one of whom doesn’t have NHL wheels) all also need to play 3rd pair
So now he has no one strong to partner the talented Bouch, no one strong to partner the rookie Bro, who should start at LD, an NHL unready Niems. A younger smart vet that can’t keep a home bcs boots. No one to break cycles or clear the net except Nurse, if he has the feels
The goalies and forwards aren’t playing well enough, again. Hmmm
Love the team, I know the players gut themselves, not feeling it with management again. We deserve better. Connor deserves better
Actually McCrimmon signed a 29 year old goaltender to a 5-year deal. That player is on LTIR now.
True
Do you consider Lehner and Campbell at the same level?
Not so different, they had similar SV%s in the years leading up to the 5-year deals. There were other known risks with Lehner as well.
Main point though is that McCrimmon did not go the low risk route at all, but was forced into it by his own earlier high risk move(s).
Keith trade was pilloried by most. Kind of miss him right about now, but is a long season and expect we will see a better team and a better Campbell in time. This team has the pieces, but schedule and injuries are a thing right now.
Important to remember that Holland was also hot after Markstrom who obviously required a long term contract.
He turns 33 next month.
Also, do not look now, but Skinner has been sub-.900 in his last three starts.
Soupy looking like he’d struggle saving 15% switching to Geico
(sorry, had to do it again).
A redirection by Brind’Amour puts Quinnipiac in the right direction to victory:
https://mobile.twitter.com/QU_MIH/status/1598856020742311936?cxt=HHwWgMC4tY3Fo7AsAAAA
Just checking in to see if everyone can post? This article, incomplete as it is, has been up for several hours. Hopefully things are getting back to normal.
Test
Testing!
Testes.
test
Le Testu
Play McDavid and Draisaitl -together.
Play them a ton.
Work the PK.
New Boss. Same as the old boss.
Well, this method does have a 3-1 record this season….
Have you seen their numbers apart? (each is 43%GF without the other)
What would you do in the short term with 4 top 9 forwards out?
The 5v5 numbers this season are so bizarre.
Injuries. It’s a thing.
Also, it has only been four or five games.
There is no Cup based on a 3-4 player plan
If they can’t involve everyone it’s all moot
Remember when Ryan became useful and based on what he said many commented this is a
step in the right direction? It’s reverted to what 2 other established and proven coaches did
So either the coaches are chicken shits, or Kenny needs to retire to the upper chambers because he can’t build a team anymore, or never did in actuality
He’s had long enough now as I see it. There are only excuses at this point cap or otherwise. We know this because we watch the top shelf GMs get things done without destroying anything, and especially recouping draft picks, which the Oilers never do, and is what is hamstringing them
Not paying for quality players bcs overpaying for placeholders, and unable to get returns for draft and farm investments
If the coaches can’t play his players do the right thing Mr Holland. He should be in the org, the model is successful team’s GMs moving aside – Kniggets and Avs
If we’re being fair, Sakic got 8 years before stepping aside.
Are there any other ‘top shelf’ teams/GMs outside the Avs, Knights and Lightning?
Devils aren’t doing too bad. Canadiens far above expected. Panthers with a fast turn around
It can never be perfect. But it also doesn’t have to move by sundial as generational players age out
The Devils have played well for a quarter of a season. They have not won shit. Oilers have had more playoff success under Holland than the Panthers.
All true
It’s about what you are content with as a fan
I am not content with anything but Cups and being a top team each season
I can’t watch the Bruins somehow stay tops, or the Kniggets not regress despite 80 million reasons why they should
While having Connor
YMMV
Not regress like >not< missing the playoffs last season?
Bruins are on a weird heater right now. Believe they will be the team we thought they were at some point. GKs will find out that goaltending is a thing – not sold thatThompson is real. Like HH, when you have 31 other teams to choose from, at least one or two will look better and at the end of the season there is only one GM who got it right. Am choosing to be patient right now because the team is still in the mix despite being adrift, with goaltending that is still trying to settle. If either JC or SS doesn’t figure it out by mid-season then will hit the panic button.
Wait, the Devils’ rebuild wasn’t by sundial? They’ve made the playoffs one in the last 10 years, a total of five games and one win.
Sakic made great moves and was active. Won a Cup. Moved up to keep talent in house
He won a cup after eight years. Including many years in the basement. Moved up to keep talent in house”–what does this mean?
He took over a dysfunctional team and tried to fix it for a couple of seasons but bottomed out.
Then he got to work on a total rebuild that started with the Duchene trade.
He didn’t make even one bad deal after that.
Allowed Macfarlane to take over
It took Sakic the better part of a decade and he was “gifted” MacKinnon and Makar every bit as much as Holland was gifted McDavid and Drai and Sakic also missed the playoffs for three straight years after drafting MacKinnon, etc.
He drafted Makar (4th pick) and Rantanen (10th pick)
I would concede a first or second pick as ‘gifted’
How many 1st overall picks have the Oilers had since Sakic was named GM?
Sakic got most of his high picks through astute trades and none were gifted.
Why don’t you share the answer if you know?
I’ve read over and over and over that the Oilers were gifted McDavid and Drai – if that’ the case, then the Avs were gifted MacKinnon and Makar
-Sakic got 8 years though, that was my point. Holland is 1/4 of the way through season 4. The Avs missed the playoffs in Sakic’s first 3 season, finished last overall in his 3rd, then made the playoffs in his 4th (1st round exit). Through his first 7 seasons they never made the conference finals, in year 8 they won the cup (and agreed, well done).
-The Devils are playing wonderfully, but as noted it’s been all of 24 games. They’ve won a total of 1 playoff game in the last 9 seasons, and finished bottom 5 in the league both of Fitzgerald’s full seasons as GM. Holland was hired only 8 months before Fitzgerald in NJ.
-Montreal is tied with the Oilers, so yeah. Hughes was hired last January. He’s made some moves. We’ll see I guess.
-Florida I don’t know at all. Zito has been active AF, and he’s made lots of good moves. But you mentioned ‘not destroying anything’. Zito traded 5 years of futures at the deadline last year, and hasn’t won a damn thing. Also tied with the Oilers this year, so not exactly showing sustain after last years regular season.
I don’t know, I just don’t see most of these ‘top shelf’ GMs holding up when you really look at them. Or at least not in the ‘first 3.25 years’ window that you’re holding Holland to.
Boston.
Carolina.
Leon + Connor = 128:21 minutes 61.54 GF%
Connor w/o Leon = 262:08 minutes 43.48 GF%
Leon w/o Connor = 249:16 minutes 43.33 GF%
w/o Leon and Connor = 490:43 minutes 40.63 GF%
Honestly, the 5v5 numbers are wild this year.
Connor has a super low ONSH%. Leon has a terrible ONSV%.
I think the bottom six GF% is largely a function of luck/bad bounces. The rest of the bottom six underlying numbers are around 50%.
Edmonton is 25th in 5v5 GF%. McDavid and Leon have been a part of the problem this year. I speculate part of the issue is Leon is less than 100%.
The issue is bigger than that. Holland has done far better with forwards than D and G
The defense is so out of balance and one dimensional I think it is the lynch pin of progress not being made
It is also contributing to G issues
Oh, for sure. The D is mediocre, and the goaltending is still a question mark.
That being said, the team has made progress under Holland. They consistently qualify for the playoffs. They just made the conference finals with major injuries to Nurse and Drai.
Yes for sure
For me getting better slowly isn’t enough
They are a couple of astute moves from being dominant
I also grew up with a dynasty team with a GOAT player, with a wicked awesome GM. It has an impact on what one sees as possible
Perhaps the perspective needs change though, no? I mean, building a cup team is a heck of alot different in 2022 than it was in 1983. Of course, having Gretz, Messier, Fuhr, Anderson, Kurri, Coffey on the same team past their ELC in the cap era – not a chance.
Building a cup winner in 2022 is as much about finding impact ELCs and value 2nd contracts as much as just acquiring the best players.
That’s often said, but is that how Tampa win 2 and had a crack at 3 in a row?
They went after top talent and paid for it. But are also able to turn their assets into draft picks to replenish them, and make trades that return good value
Cup winning teams use all avenues to success. But it’s been shown here repeatedly that trading is a major part to fill gaps the drafts didn’t fill, or free agency
A large part of the Tampa Championship teams was value contracts.
Other teams don’t derail with the same or worse issues
We have gone through so much since Connor was drafted
We are at the point where the team is not a top level team, still despite incoming hopes for the year
Yes they will get better
They still are a weak team in group play, with a cheat code
So it’s either the players Holland has collected aren’t good enough, or yet again the coaches aren’t. Or it’s the water
Playing like this overall certainly can’t be acceptable anymore, for any reasons
They well could make another push if healthy. The thing is the Oilers aren’t competing in a vacuum. They have not taken a step, but other teams have
Even if it’s not the Flames. Who paid for having US players as their core. Should have dealt them from a position of strength. It was not a sideswipe that US guys want to play in the US, it has happened so many times before to other teams
Even with Norris Fox in Calgary
Or you can ignore the pattern
Risk management is everything. In a league where contracts are guaranteed, is capped, and so movement is stagnant, there is little room for big mistakes
No Kane changes the top six. Add Yammo being out and options narrow. Actually like idea of Jesse and Nuge and interested to see how that plays out. Maybe a finisher (EK?) on that wing and we have a second line that works when Woodcroft loads up. Not a problem playing McDrai for now.
.
Good point!
I believe Danny asked for website loading error messages the other day, thought I’d share in case the infor helps in any way.
502 Bad Gatewaynginx/1.23.2
Weird – are all the comments post 10:08 being deleted unless they’re replies?
I’d posted something that I didn’t think was all that controversial. A little bit on maybe shoring up the defence to help with the PK/5×5 issues.
The forum has been very glitch for days now. I posted two comments right around 6 am on this blog and they are gone as well…… oh well.
There’s a whole article missing too from yesterday software issues is my guess.
Anyone else seeing two versions of the comments section today?
I’ve had to log back in at least four times today (and yes I click the leave me logged in box lol). Each time I go between this set of comments and a totally different group, which just had a comment by Kinger at the top.
Yeah, I’m having issues as well. I’m now your comment is at the top for me currenty, but it’s been cowboy bill at 10:08 the last few times I logged in. I’ve tried clearing my cache etc. no luck.
Lords, have we been placed into like a “good group of people” “bad group of people” comments section? WHICH ONE IS WHICH!?
Are we in The Good Place?
if you can see me… you’re in the bad place. 😉
Have to feel for Jack Campbell. He wants nothing more than to be the best he can be for his team. He seems out of sorts for some reason. He’ll get out of it. Maybe Mike Smith could take it upon himself to dig into his inner goalie coach and offer up some advice or some words of encouragement. On second thought, he might make it worse. Always thought Smiddy would make a great goalie coach though.
Or how about the Oilers fly in the goalie coach Smith worked with over the summer two years ago? He came back like a different goalie, his rebound control and tracking was superb.
Or! how about we fly in Mike Smith as a goalie! /S
Soup is in a terrible, no good, mental funk.
Reminds me of that two weeks during the Canadian COVID bracket when we got whooped left right and center by the Leafs and couldn’t do a damn thing about it. Mentally beat and then hockey-wise beat.
His confidence is shattered. Now that the hole in his glove is fixed he’s back to opening every nook and cranny that a shot can get through. Watched him lose his net about five times last night and it wasn’t on Royal Road passes either. Just bad goalering.
This signing was supposed to solve the AMC Stonk levels of ups and downs with goalering. Well technically I guess it has cause its only been down so far this year.
Uggh going back to the off-season there were two things that bugged me. First were some folks suggesting that Kulak was gonna need a four handle to sign. Recent troubles in Habs land be damned!
The second was Kenny going all in on the Soup when he hadn’t fully established himself in the NHL and had yet to play 70 games at 30. That’s a helluva bet that didn’t seem to be backed up by any publicly available evidence at the time and yeesh she stinks to high heaven now.
I think he’ll get it fixed but man this is an annoyance of the highest fricken Oilers order.
I replied to this earlier but will try again. A couple of points on Campbell.
I’m not sure where 70 games came from. He’d played 135 regular season games prior to being signed by the Oilers.
And I’m not sure exactly what kind of ‘publicly available evidence’ you’re hoping for, but the nhl.com (among other sites) has Campbell at a .916 SV% over the previous 4 seasons.
That would be 8th of 44 goalies who played 100+ games (or if you prefer, 5th of 31 goalies who played 125+ games).
23 hours between games and needing to travel.
bottom six are arguably all AHL players.
Holloway-Malone-Hamlin
Kostin-Shore-Ryan
The goalie challenge is somewhat tied to this group 5v5 and their role within 5v4.
During the Chicago game, the Chicago TV crew were discussing the Oilers travel and said it was incredible that they had all that and 3 in 4. Said NHL schedule was horrible.
Mentioned last night by the TNT crew as well.
I’m usually supportive of Ken Holland, but he went after the wrong goalie this summer.
Husso has been very good in Detroit
Kuemper has been steady for Washington
Vanacek has been money for Jersey
Campbell has been awful in all but two games. He is objectively worse than Mikko Koskinen.
Skinner probably isn’t prepared to be an NHL starter but he’s going to have to be. Campbell should be given starts against the Coyotes and Ducks, but otherwise he needs to work with Schwartz before he’s put into competitive games.
I’d put him on waivers, see what happens. I can’t think of any bad scenarios with that move.
Apart from not having a backup!
It’s too early to overreact. That isn’t Holland’s MO.
The plan has to be to re-habilitate Campbell’s game. At least to have him perform as a capable backup, but more importantly to deploy his $5M cap hit productively as a starter.
Luckily the Oilers have a lot of winnable games ahead on the schedule – Skinner should be able to handle an increase workload through Christmas.
If the problem persists into February I could see a demotion – trade for Reimer.
Ooops and there was Elliot Freeman n Bob Staufers show just this afternoon suggesting the same thing.
Campbell also wasn’t a target of mine, I was in the established goalie as a stop gap to see what we had in Skinner.
Even Reimer has done well in SJ.
I’m not in the fire Schwartz camp. But I’m starting to wonder if we can’t aim higher as his body of work accumulates. When was the last time a goalie notably improved under his tenure? Skinner was developed during that timeline, but he was largely working with Sylvian Rodrigue to my knowledge.
I think the thing that made me start to question his efficacy is when Mike Smith went to work with a different goalie coach in the off-season, and came back much improved with his tracking and rebound control.
One would think that there are only so many Korns, Clarkes, Ranfords, Allaires, and Burkes of the world. Not every team is going to have an elite goalie coach. But it’s an area we could stand to improve that doesn’t count against the cap.
Skinner attributes most of his success to Dustin Schwartz, for what its worth.
Interesting… I thought he’d been working more with Rodrigue over the years.
I know he’s well regarded. If I’m not mistaken he’s the goaltending consultant for the WHL. I just begin to question why we don’t see goalies raise their game in Edmonton, and it’s not just under Schwartz.
I wonder if it has more to do with defense. It takes a ton of mental and physical energy to be a goalie, especially at the NHL level. The oilers leave soooo many options open, that the goalies become overwhelmed and don’t seem to recover until they leave because they finally get to fully rest and reset.
Skinner and campbell were facing 40+ shots a game nearly every game for a month. Then they’re expected to settle in nicely and play a full season of hockey. Its a difficult ask, and part of why Smith might have been so good his last year.. when he missed a huge chunk of time.
But Skinner was absolutely glowing when talking about Schwartz in his podcast interview a while back.
I also know that Carter Hart continues to work with Schwartz in the off-season, for wha its worth.
Interesting photo of Romanov in the background (from previous season) in the TSN story on Bunting.
Looks like Romanov is trying to get a close up view of the fans poster.
Heh heh
They should frame this pic for Bro and Hollywood – how to avoid a headhunter and last longer
I really like what Kostin brings I would like to see him tried in top 6 big body, smart player takes good shots.
He was the Oilers best player in the first period to my eye.
He’s certainly earned it as much as anyone else.
WIth that said, Foegele was never placed on IR so I would think he’s close and we keep hearing that Yamo is as well. We could get an extra body (or two) back for Saturday.
Soup’s calling card so far has been to over-anticipate the play, to the point where the least little happening pulls him (badly) out of position and out of his stance. By comparison, Stew’s play is like watching a stone in a stream.
Of course I’ve never played the position and Bruce says it better:
His game seemed way off technically: not square to the shooter, pulling away from the post leaving holes on the short side, biting hard on first moves or first shots
As a goalie myself, I 100% agree with Bruce’s take.
Take the Steel goal for example. Breakaways are always bad odds for goalies and its why shootout save percentages are so low. Therefore, I am usually very hesitant to blame a goalie for a breakaway goal.
On this goal we saw steel take the puck on his backhand and start motioning towards his forehand before he even accepted the puck. Furthermore, his skates had clearly turned into the direction of his forehand as soon as he received the puck. Despite all of these clues, Campbell bit to the glove side for…. virtually no reason.
I am in no way an expert, nor the best goalie of all time, but watching in real time, I saw all of those clues and would have pushed in the right direction.
I compared Campbell’s play to those NHL videogames, where Goalies have set motions and save selections, and don’t “Follow the puck” but just make a save selection that would “make sense” depending on where the puck is.
Thats why he slid back into the net, but didnt have an active stick to stop the puck on the first goal. Its why he slipped into the RVH on the second goal, which opened up the hole above his shoulder. Its why he didn’t move into the right position on the breakaway. Its also why the five hole goal, while also screened and tipped, squeaked through.
Watch Stuart Skinner, or alternatively, watch a Shesterkin or a Helleybuck and they constantly follow the puck with their eyes and they know to abandon traditional technique to make a save. They follow the puck and it guides their actions more than “Technique”. Technique is important, and it allows you to get into the right position to make a save, but once that’s in place, the goalie needs to react. Campbell isn’t reacting, he’s going through his motions, which is why he’s “in position” and then the puck finds a hole.
Tim Thomas had a quote for this. He said that sometimes you need to throw in a little road hockey. Campbell, especially in comparison to Skinner, is not fully into the game it seems, or maybe he’s trying to trust the process too much and forgetting to focus on stopping the puck. Either way, at this point, I’ve never seen an NHL goalie struggle this badly for this extended period of time, and I’m not quite sure what his next steps should be. Except we need to play Skinner. A lot more.
I have to say that above and beyond Campbell’s numbers, he just looks lost. He’s playing with zero confidence and getting beat by shots that should not be getting by an NHL goaltender. I don’t know how he gets his mojo back because we cannot afford to gamble games away waiting for that to happen.
A trade for Cal Peterson would be win right now.
I don’t know how he gets it back either but just that, at some point, he will. All goalies have ups and downs and confidence comes and goes. He’s done this before and rebounded and it should happen again. All it takes is a big save or two or a solid game impacting a win and, bam, confidence.
This was meant as a comment on the daily Tarkus prospecting post, but will leave here where the comments seem to be at least temporarily lost to the ether:
https://www.brandonsun.com/local/2022/12/02/wheat-kings-talk-distressed-man-off-bridge
Let’s add another assist to Jake Chiasson’s season, and the most important one of his life. What a great story and thing these kids did.
Yes, thank you for this – I had posted about this yesterday (and that a piece was being penned to come out today) but I think that got lost as well.