There are NHL trades that make loud noises and there are NHL trades fans react to violently. The deal that sent Frank Mahovlich to the Detroit Red Wings was a breach of faith by the Toronto Maple Leafs. The transaction that sent the Big M to the Montreal Canadiens? Treason.
Imagine a man who captured the hearts of English Canada, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to four Stanley Cups, suddenly arriving in town wearing the uniform of the sworn enemy, the Montreal Canadiens. It happened. Mahovlich added two Stanleys to the four from TML, and finished his career at age 40 playing for the Birmingham (baby) Bulls of the WHA. What kind of trade, today, would have the same impact?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers look for rugged forward in a trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players providing a spark after a slow start
- Lowetide: What could Oilers forward Dylan Holloway accomplish in AHL?
- DNB: Oilers’ win over Rangers shows how valuable secondary scoring can be
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into 2nd decade of being misunderstood
- DNB: Oilers have a long way to go as defensive problems persist
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and early-season trades during road trips
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ lack of secondary scoring is a critical situation
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers trade targets from the AHL
- DNB:How Oilers star Connor McDavid went from poor to unreal in a pivotal win
- DNB and Jesse Granger: Is the Connor McDavid vs. Jack Eichel rivalry finally about to become reality?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers can replace Evander Kane’s production on a budget
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers need to trade for an established defenceman
- Lowetide: What should the Edmonton Oilers expect from Klim Kostin?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers start October slow but finish month strong
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected (1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
- December actual result: 0-1-0, 0 points in one game
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 13-11-0, 26 points in 24 games
This is an important homestand for Edmonton, and the fact the Habs defeated Calgary on Thursday should serve as a sober reminder that no NHL team can afford to look past tonight’s competition. If the Oilers can deliver my predicted record during these next four home games, the record would be 16-12-0, 32 points after 28 games. That’s a 94-point trajectory and should land this team in the postseason. The Seattle Kraken are going to cost an Alberta team a playoff spot. That’s how important every game will be this season.
A MODERN MAHOVLICH TRADE
Frank Mahovlich was three days past age 33 on the day he was dealt from the DRW to Montreal in exchange for Mickey Redmond, Guy Charron and Bill Collins. All three trade pieces would play as regulars, and Redmond blossomed in Detroit before a back injury ended his career far too soon.
Is there a modern day target, age 33, similar to Mahovlich on the day he was dealt? Mahovlich finished in a tie for No. 13 in points that season (73, 31-42-73), new teammate Yvan Cournoyer matching his point total. His 31 goals were good for No. 15, but his brother Peter (also acquired in an earlier deal with the Red Wings) had 35 goals to rank No. 11.
Anyone like that in today’s NHL? Using the current top-20 points leaders, men in the same age range as Mahovlich at the time of the trade produces one name. Steven Stamkos, who is 32 years and 299 days old, would qualify. He ranks No. 15 in scoring, 13-15-28 in 23 games. He’s not going anywhere, but it gives you an idea about how much impact it would have had back in 1971.
It was more than that, though. Due to the intense rivalry between the Habs and TML, and the status of Mahovlich in Maple Leafs lore, it was unthinkable to a large group of hockey fans. In trying to drive the point home, I thought of suggesting an Edmonton trade of Leon Draisaitl to the Islanders and then an immediate flip to the Calgary Flames. I thought of it, but didn’t want to ruin your Saturday.
FIVE ON FIVE SCORING, LAST 10 GAMES
- Ryan McLeod (7 games) 2.80
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.20
- Leon Draisaitl 2.10
- Warren Foegele (7 games) 2.08
- Mattias Janmark 1.5
- Connor McDavid 1.43
- Zach Hyman 1.42
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.35
- Devin Shore (7 games) 1.01
- Klim Kostin (8 games) 0.78
- Dylan Holloway 0.74
- Derek Ryan 0.70
The first thing we notice is that Connor McDavid hasn’t produced at established levels over the last 10 games. That market is going to correct like adding Mick Taylor to the Rolling Stones lineup, and these next four games would be a good place to start.
I notice Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele, Mattias Janmark and Jesse Puljujarvi with some improving numbers, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins doing something similar to driving a line.
DEFENSE GOAL DIFF AT FIVE-ON-FIVE (LAST 10 GAMES)
- Markus Niemelain 100 percent (1-0)
- Cody Ceci 54 percent (7-6)
- Darnell Nurse 50 percent (10-10)
- Tyson Barrie 41 percent (7-10)
- Ryan Murray 40 percent (2-3)
- Brett Kulak 33 percent (5-10)
- Evan Bouchard 25 percent (3-9)
- Philip Broberg 20 percent (1-4)
We’re seeing some market correction on some of these players. Darnell Nurse was 10-12 leading up to the last 10 games, while Tyson Barrie was 11-7. Some going in good directions, Evan Bouchard is 10-21 (32 percent) for the year and that’s the big item for Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson to correct. Perhaps we’ll see four huge games from Bouchard this week.
The Modern Mahovlich trade:
If we’re talking the first trade of Big M, then I say Kane or Toews to the Oilers. Although they’re not really young enough.
If we’re talking the second trade of M, then I say Sean Monahan to the Oilers. That would be a dagger to our bitter rivals, especially if he played well and stayed healthy. But he’s too young.
Still either of those scenarios suit me well as a modern comp.
Maybe LT is thinking Brock Boeser to the Oilers. That’s sitting down at the three-assets minimum-ante table though.
And none of these men have acceptable caps. Bastards. All of them would be helpful.
Boeser, the youngest, is pretty darn interesting, not that the Nucks would ever give us a reasonable deal. They’re not compelled to trade him so no way is he coming here without a middle man and Holland doesn’t work in deception.
Sadly, I don’t think there’s really a blockbuster out there we can swing either due to asset cost or cap hit… or both.
A really amazing forecheck and caused turnover by Esposito who them grinds on the boards and gets it back to Kesselring who fires one on net – tipped in by Tulio to tie the game at 4 with 7 minutes to go.
That’s goals in 3 straight for Tulio.
A wicked writer by Philp from the left face-off dot ties the game up for the Condors who have no business being tied.
Summarizing!
One of the most productive nights in a while.
In a repeat performance of last night, Brind’Amour went 1+1 and was an ace on the dot (15-for-25, 60.0%) in a Quinnipiac victory.
Also going 1+1 was Max Wanner, whose goal stood as the game-winner.
Petrov chipped in two helpers in a 3-0 win.
Schaefer picked up two aPPles and 5 SOG in a Seattle win.
Chiasson contributed an aPPle.
Mazura, Münzenberger and Määttä (who only went 50% on FO’s) were held off the scoresheet.
Bakersfield related, but Max Gildon (Dman) has been reassigned by Florida to the Condors. Precursor to a deal?
Ya, I mentioned this earlier this afternoon.
He was very good as a Condor a few seasons ago but wasn’t able to repeat last season nor regain that form so far this season.
I’m not sure what the deal is in Charlotte and why he’s being loaned outside the org but I think it would take a prospect with NHL aspirations like Lavoie to get his rights.
Sorry man, never seen it earlier.
Lavoie? Be a tough call, but I don’t see Lavoie having a career in Edmonton. Watch the lad depart and carve himself a few hundred games somewhere else. It happens. Either way, if Gildon can help it’s a bonus.
Oh, no worries at all – that may have come off wrong.
Ya, I would think that would be the type of deal, two prospects nearing the end of their ELCs with down arrows…
I don’t know. Gildon has barely played for Charlotte. Total of 28 AHL games (and zero ECHL) over this season and last. His ELC is up at the end of the year, I’d wonder if they’re going to qualify.
He had a wonderful run with the Condors though, and has pretty decent pedigree. He might be worth paying something for.
Are our Oilers quietly making some improvements?
Various metrics in the first 15 games vs. the last 10 games (tonight was game 25).
Points%
First 15 .533
Last 10 .600
GF%
First 15 49.6
Last 10 48.5
SF% (overall)
First 15 48.2
Last 10 50.6
SCF% (overall)
First 15 50.8
Last 10 52.1
HDCF% (overall)
First 15 53.0
Last 10 53.0
SA/60 (overall)
First 15 34.5
Last 10 30.5
SCA/60 (overall)
First 15 32.4
Last 10 26.4
HDCA/60 (overall)
First 15 13.0
Last 10 10.9
Modest improvements in the shot and scoring chance rates.
More clear reductions in the number of shots and scoring chances they’re giving up.
I didn’t calculate exactly, but it doesn’t look like their strength of opponents has been overall weaker in the last 10 vs first 15.
Anything different happening at 5v5?
SF% (5v5)
First 15 47.9
Last 10 48.4
SCF% (5v5)
First 15 51.3
Last 10 49.0
HDCF% (5v5)
First 15 51.2
Last 10 51.8
SA/60 (5v5)
First 15 33.2
Last 10 30.4
SCA/60 (5v5)
First 15 30.1
Last 10 26.8
HDCA/60 (5v5)
First 15 12.6
Last 10 10.5
Rates are about the same, but less is being given up (and less generated obviously).
Probably injuries have been more of a factor in the last 10 than the first 10 with Kane and Yamamoto out (plus Foegele/McLeod for the last 4).
Special teams?
PP
First 15 14.1 GF/60
Last 10 9.2 GF/60
Shots and scoring chances generated are similar, but their HD chances are way down. They’ve been struggling legitimately.
PK
First 15 12.6 GA/60
Last 10 12.6 GA/60
Consistent. But terrible.
Their shot against rates are similar, but they’ve improved their scoring chance rates shockingly (70.8 to 48.0 SCA/60). HDCA rates are improved slightly but nothing much (HDCA are a bit better than average so that doesn’t explain the poor results).
So some legit PP struggle, and some signs that the PK has improved despite the same results.
Shooting and save percents?
SH% (all situations)
First 15 11.4%
Last 10 10.2%
SV% (all situations)
First 15 .892
Last 10 .889
Same poor goaltending (though median team SV% is only .899, so it hasn’t been that bad). SH% is suffering, probably due to the PP funk.
The team does appear to have tightened up defensively somewhat. And that’s seen in the overall results as well as at both 5v5 and on the PK.
Tkachuk has twice as many points as the leading scorer has on Calgary. Also Bennett would be the leading scorer on Calgary.
sweet nectar to my soul.
Wanner scores a beaut for his 6th of the campaign as he walks in uncontested from the blue line and goes roof-daddy:
https://twitter.com/MJWARRIORS/status/1599243262404993026?cxt=HHwWhICx0cTR07EsAAAA
Bailey to Rymshaw, back to Bailey, in all alone, goal – 2-0.
Condors getting caved early, shots 7-1 but then Griffith makes a very nice defensive zone PK play, steals the puck, goes back to Kemp who head-mans to Esposito for a 3 on 3 rush, he holds up, feeds Griffith at the face-off circle for a one-time shorties.
Jesse with eight hits given, four taken, 2 blocks no giveaways for the night. No shots, one attempt. He didn’t get an assist but he certainly played a role on the 5-on-3 goal. Nice tussle along the far boards (later in the game).
Calgary has no identity. Who exactly is the leaders on this team?
Skinner had a few big moments in this game that impacted it for the good guys to pull out the win. Big glove stop on a breakaway and moves it to get it going the other way. With Campbell that likely would have gone through his glove right now. And that’s the difference in the game. Team is not playing fabulous but deflating goaltending changes the way the team plays also. Hockey is mostly goalie! As evidenced by Leaf’s currently. Everyone is talking about Marner but their two tenders are playing great. Gives confidence for everyone to just worry about their own job.
He did make some big saves, he was also highly culpable on the 1st goal against and had 3 other bad rebound sequences.
He wasn’t on tonight but battled through and got the win.
He can, and will, play better and I expect it on Monday.
Skinner isn’t the first NHL goaltender that Suzuki has beat with than shot. Suzuki is a really good player.
Sorry, I meant the 2nd goal he was highly culpable on.
The first one was stoppable (in my opinion) but that was a great release and shot on a PP – I don’t but much blame on him on that one.
We at CoH had Skinner as part of the problem on all 3 goals. We scored the first & third goals as Grade B shots — which of course sometimes go in — & the middle tally as a bad rebound.
No other goals of course & some pretty good saves mixed in, one of them on the 5v3 when Stu not only made an excellent stop he kept the play alive leading to aan odd-man counter attack & eventually a goal.
Seems like 3 GA is a best case scenario these days, but when 97 & 29 get 4 points each it’s a successful formula!
Looks like we saw Skinner’s performance similar.
I thought he/we got lucky they didn’t blow it down on that one play – the attacker was right at the goal mouth and Skinner took quite a while before he was able to play the puck – good break.
Happy about the win, but that was not an encouraging game.
Keith needs to send healing crystals to Kane, Yamo, Foegele, and McLeod.
4 W’s in their last 5 sans four regular forwards and a hellish set of travel for good measure.
You’d swear by some of the commentary they went 1-4 instead 😉
Hopefully we see a few regulars rejoin this week. That’ll help big time. Keep the momentum going.
Biggest takeaway tonight is how much I dislike Hyundai’s WAH ads. What a dumb advertising idea. 😡
I hear the ‘WAH’ like it’s being said by a Budweiser frog.
I see “WAH” and immediately think of Wario in Mario Kart 64 when ever you hit him with a turtle shell.
WAAAHHH!!! LOL!!! 😂🤣
Seriously, what kid is awed by seeing Scheifele in person? It’s not like he’s McDavid.
I don’t think the kid was saying wah when seeing Scheifele, he was saying, “Wah-t a shitty car for an NHL star to be driving.”
5 shots from the bottom six wingers. 3 from Malone. A bunch of PP goals. PK gets abused again. Need a different type of bottom 6.
Pretty soon we should be able to add Janmark and Foegele to the group (Janmark down with Yamamoto, of Foegele, return).
We should also acknowledge that bottom 6 played 18 clean minutes at 5v5 tonight. That group of (mostly) AHLers.
They sawed off, and it’s not like they were lucky to escape without being scored on (shots were even and they were +1 in scoring chances and HD scoring chances).
That was not a pretty game, and it was somewhat all over the place. For yet another night the Oilers didn’t bring their A game (haven’t even once this season). That 2nd was weird with all the penalties but NST had the Oilers ahead in both the 2nd and 3rd periods at 5 on 5 and the Habs had zero high danger attempts in the 3rd.
The Oilers really did lock it down in the 3rd to my eye (and via stat).
What is their “A” game? I’m beyond impatient at the make up of this team. I don’t need an excuse about injuries. This team played the same way with a healthy Kane and Yams and McLeod.
Hmm. Injuries to Kane, Yamamoto, McLeod and Foegele IS part of the story. You can ignore it, but it still exists. Yelling at the AHL recalls doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. They are trying their best and the results are predictable.
You can be impatient and frustrated but, through injury and scheduling adversity, the team has won 4 of 5 – you (we) may not like “how” they won the games but they won the games.
A few minutes ago you posted about needing a boost for the bottom six, well, soon enough, the likes of Shore and one other will be replaced with the likes of Janmark and, likely Foegle (maybe Jesse or Yamo).
I thought the 3-2 win at Tampa was pretty close to an A game. Of course they lost Kane & Yamamoto that night, & have been down at least a couple of quarts ever since.
But there sure haven’t been many candidates, not for the full 60 at least. The final 40 vs Pittsburgh was pretty damn good.
Fair enough – one “A” performance in almost a third of the season.
GarbanzoHumanBean asked me “what is their A performance” and its a valid question given we almost never actually see it….. is (what I expect to be their A game) something they can actually show?
Ethan Bear on After Hours after the Canucks game
That was a solid 3rd period. Even aside from getting the insurance goal they didn’t give up a lot. Only 5 scoring chances and 0 HD scoring chances allowed.
There was some ugly in there tonight, but they got the W, and they finished strong.
Yes, I should give them credit for a strong(er) 3rd period and the win
Looking for ARI, FLA, CAR, WSH victories this evening.
They actually held the Habs off the scoreboard for the whole third period. They played a lot of safe, smart, un-Oiler-like hockey for most of that stanza. There were poor plays yes, 14 had me swearing at him, but the damage was always limited because they were on the right side of the puck and sending it to low danger areas.
Per NST, they didn’t give up a single high danger attempt at the net – they did lock it down mostly in the 3rd.
Why they don’t play every period like this is beyond me. With their quick strike ability every forward should be below the puck until an opposition breakdown.
Yet they start the game with forwards flying the zone and floating 2 zones north
Seemed to me that the forecheck was working pretty well in the third
Per Mike Griffith:
Tullio-Esposito-Kambeitz
Savoie-Dove-McFalls-Griffith
McKegg-Rymsha-Bailey
McPhee-Philip-Bourgault
Niemelainen-Demers
Kielb-Kesselrinbg
Peteres-Kemp
Rodrigue
Is Bourgault on the 4th line a thing?
Those lines don’t look numbered to me.
I’m more concerned with Lavoie being scratched (??) with that set of forwards in the lineup. Hopefully it’s an injury? I guess I shouldn’t hope for that either…
Nope – healthy scratched – I made a seperate post about it – Savoie, Tulio, Lavoie have all been scratched for ECHL call-ups. Chaulk has made some choices….
Thanks.
Savoie and Tullio are rookies so I can kinda see it. That can’t be a good sign for Lavoie in year three of his entry deal though.
I wouldn’t but any stock in to the order of the lines – its essentially 4 3rd lines…….
That 2nd line looks like it might draw a too many men penalty 😜
How does a professional Hockey player miss a wide open net from basically the blue line with no pressure on him.
The same way McDavid missed a wide open net with no-one around him the other game….
Which game was that I can’t recall?Janmark had a clear path no one near him Woody trying to give the dregs a freebie. I personally would of had Holloway and Ryan our for the last 35 seconds.
Ryan was out there. He tried to get one on net from the boards shortly after Janmark’s miss but it was blocked.
He’s an imperfect human.
Well, I’ve been disappointed in and critical of this team so far, but that was a fine 3rd period – tight-checking, focussed, sacrificial and disciplined.
May it continue!
Looks like Skinner will end with the save percentage above .900 but, for me, he didn’t look great of comfortable this game.
He should get the net on Monday and I expect a more solid performance!
Big win. Well done.
Not a fan of this D crew.
Kind of feels like 2006. There’s big talent, but the holes are so obvious and they just need to get in. There’s issues in G, but the most pressing is at D and more complete players up front. Just waiting for the deadline to fix this with Spacek, Dicky T, Roli and Samsonovs. Could use a Peca, Stoll, Torres, and Pronger to!
Well, Skinner gets the win and the team gets 2 points and I’m gonna leave it at that LoL
Quietly good job by Broberg tying up dues and sticks in front there.
He wasn’t as noticeable tonight. That’s a good thing for him
I don’t know his period splits but, to my eye, he was getting MORE ice in the 3rd than earlier in the game.
Ryan sticks the puck in his secret pocket and stops play. Gets a bro hug from Skinner for the block. lol
Nice moment where Skinner hugs Ryan after Ryan absorbs the puck and ‘freezes’ it. Goalies are lonely types!
lol is it just me or does Bouchard always have a confused look on his face?
He has the Merry Jane stare.
McDavid wants the hatty it seems…..
I can’t see Broberg lasting he gets Wallpaperd at least once a game.
Yes, he does. He has to get this out of his game before he gets seriously hurt.
Well that is a big damn goal. Beauty too.
4 point nights for both McDavid and Draisaitl.
There will be more goals in this game as well, likely.
If nothing else, Allen will likely be pulled early……
Tic-Tock-Tic-Tock/
Oh, McDavid goal – dagger.
Yes. Needed that one
McD and Drai still pretty good.
Oh. Tabernac!
the highlight reel duo
BOOM!!! McDavid makes it look soooo easy!!!
Drai! Nice lazy exit of the ozone…turned away from what coulda been a grade A.,,
Be better…
Jesse’s got a burr in his saddle, today…
I like it.
Man nuge is looking confident and smart.
#roadto50
Hmmm – last 4 shifts or so, the Oilers have been structured.
Some deft play behind his own goal line by Nuge
The Nuge Puljujarvi line would be a lot more dynamic with Holloway on it.
2nd line has been caved tonight….. badly.
Hyman having a great game.
Pretty much every game thats the case
He’s made a few weak and bad plays in the defensive zone over the last few games but he sure is something else from the redline forward.
Lavoie healthy scratched for an ECHL call-up – this continues to be a thing with Chaulk:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
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4m
Ollie Rodrigue gets the start tonight for a Condors team that could use a win. Drake Rymsha jumps in the lineup from Fort Wayne, while Raphael Lavoie sits.