Dylan Holloway’s first goal for the Edmonton Oilers was a terrific moment; so was Dan Lacouture’s first goal for Edmonton, didn’t get him 10 minutes on a skill line. I believe Holloway will play in the NHL, but can he move the needle enough to play on a skill line during his prime? Or now?
Holloway is an impressive player with the puck on his stick, I would suggest he’s the seocnd most offensively talented player on this list (Kailer Yamamoto is the other strong candidate) that tracks Oilers rookies back to the turn of the century. He may eventually pass Yamamoto, but as of this moment the Oilers coaching staff see him as a depth player.
I think it’s reasonable to suggest Holloway has 20-goal and 40-point potential, but he isn’t that player this season, and that’s important.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, quality prospects
- New DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
- New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together?
- Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season?
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ Philip Broberg’s progress as an NHL defenceman
- DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
- Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- DNB: Connor McDavid questions NHL rules, Darnell Nurse’s gaffes prove costly in Oilers loss
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
- DNB: If the Oilers can trade Jesse Puljujarvi, where is he likely to end up?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is redefining his role
- DNB: The Oilers don’t need someone like Zack Kassian. They need more efforts like this
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
HOLLOWAY’S OFFENSE
This is a list of players drafted 2014+ who have played in the NHL and remain in the system. McDavid and Draisaitl are beyond the blue horizon, Bouchard is a successful puck-moving blue, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi have played successfully on skill lines. McLeod is going to have a career, we just don’t know if it’s Andrew Cogliano’s or Steve Kelly’s.
After that? The unknown. It’s critical for the organization to develop Broberg and Holloway. Which brings me to this season. Holloway has scored 1-3-4 in 246 minutes five-on-five, averaging less than eight minutes a night. He’s at .97 points-60, but 40 percent goal share and over 50 percent expected goals. He needs to play. The last three times he played over 10 minutes in a game five-on-five, his line scored a goal. The Oilers handling of this player is peculiar.
REID SCHAEFER
Schaefer made Team Canada for the World Juniors and is listed as the No. 13 forward on the roster TSN is posting. Sometimes a 13th forward stays there (Curtis Hamilton) and sometimes he emerges as the star of the show. I expect Schaefer lands somewhere in the middle. He’s having a great season in the WHL. Some believe he’s fallen off a great deal because the goals have dried up, but the splits are revealing.
- First 11 games: 13-2-15 (1.36)
- Next 11 games: 2-10-12 (1.09)
Goal scorers are mostly prone to streaks and in Schaefer’s case the most recent 11 games have been slow. However, he’s contributing to scoring plays and is well over a point-per-game. He’s one of the best prospects in the system, hope to see him do well at the World Juniors.
THE OILERS
I’ll have the ‘standing on the shoreline’ post New Year’s Day, but this season feels like the die is cast. Edmonton is bumbling along, hanging around the playoff line, with clear and identifiable issues that can be addressed by overpaying now.
Ken Holland is a patient man, so patient it’s a good bet he’ll wait no matter what happens between now and March 3, 2023 (trade deadline). He believes in Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgualt and Reid Schaefer, especially Broberg. There can be only one other explanation beyond Holland’s stubborn belief in the men that have been drafted since he arrived in the spring of 2019.
The other explanation? The Coyotes aren’t convinced of Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault and Schaefer. The Coyotes might want the 2023 and 2024 picks, and Holland may not want to surrender picks. It could be Arizona doesn’t like the Edmonton things. It happens.
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
https://theathletic.com/4034653/2022/12/26/oilers-darnell-nurse-defenceman/
Nurse is currently 11th in Toi/g at 5v5.
He’s an interesting player in terms of Toi.
Other 5v5 minute munchers who PK, but see even less PP time are Parayko, Leddy, K’Andre Miller, Mikey Anderson, Zub, and Larsson… Only Paryko makes cash of that group, $6.5m hit.
Heiskanen plays similar 5v5 minutes, but one less on the PK and two more on the PP.
Makar plays 20 seconds less 5v5, 14 less on the PK, but 3 minutes more on the PP.
A better analogue might be Devon Toews.
Plays about a minute more per game than Nurse with very limited PP time.
Colton signed that deal coming off an injury plagued 12 point season. It was also mid pandemic and there was empty buildings and flat cap issues and full year before Seth Jones’ contract reset the market.
Apples and oranges.
This is fine lesson in the value of identifying key peices early and locking them in long rather bridging and paying in full later.
Matty is reporting that Skinner starts tomorrow.
To your earlier post.
The only extreme outlier is the HDGF number. Ever other stat, narrow and low volume stats that involve HD, or broader higher volume stats, show him winning the battles.
The PuckIQ exception is against Elites and I think there it owes at least some to partner.
The overall balance of stats leans that he’s riding some sort of shitty luck. His own, his goalies, his team and it’s crappy PK. Some kinda shitty luck. I’m very much in the LT camp that it’s likely to regress upwards
I also think it’s a very low volume stat for this time of year. I didn’t like his play through early November, he played well until a few Super Bad Moments against the Wild and Ducks ruined a pretty low event few weeks. He course corrected hard and the higher volume numbers reflect it.
I think 98% of young players would benefit from playing with a Vet. Odd that this is considered some sort of negative. Instead Bouchard has been actually playing with Raw Rookies and Ryan Murray. Again it’s sorta weird that fans, posters and analysts seem to hold this against him.
Edmonton decided that defense is it’s whipping boy dejour. It’s the teams unproven (weak?) spot. All the grass is greener. Everyone the Oilers have is shit and overrated. Mmmm maybe, but I don’t think so.
I think there’s an awful lot to like. Suspect Holland does to. I think a patient fan likes what it sees.
Shane Wright getting best player is a joke. Bedard was on a completely different level. Everything ran through Bedard and he could have easily had 3-2-5 on the night.
Wright was nothing special tonight despite the 2 points.
I know Bedard has this lethal shot, buy I don’t recall so many wristers in a game from distance as he attempted tonight. Seemed low percentage. Maybe works in the whl regular season, but there was very little penetration to the scoring area
Per Mark Masters, looks like Schaefer is indeed the 13th forward for today’s game.
Let’s see if the 13th Forward gets more minutes than the garbage time Holloway receives nightly
After that ridiculous misconduct he’s certain to get more time.
surprisingly didn’t, i think he only pk’d
Team could have used his agressiveness. Fairly vanilla performance. Held to the perimeter once they fell behind
Re: Bouchard
Huge variance in performance impact & fan perception of the player. A big contributor down the stretch & playoffs last season, but some undeniable spotty play this season.
Did he really get that much worse, or does he need to play with a defensive anchor to enable his game to flourish?
A wise man once said: “defensemen develop by sun dial”.
I would’ve considered him untradeable … until very recently (like, as recently as this thread). From an asset management perspective a home-grown cost-controlled RD shouldn’t just get “flipped” for leading the team in minuses 35 games in.
But Elliotte mentioned this week that the Oilers would consider doing things they wouldn’t normally do in order to compete here and now.
I agree, not untouchable, but 35 games does not re-write history and take away pedigree (that was showing through).
Similar with Darnell Nurse.
I’m not sure 153 games is by sundial but your mileage may vary. I was quite critical until the November road-trip, the ship has righted since then, Ducks game aside.
His point numbers are solid and they’re happening at 5v5. He’s also been tasked with breaking in rookies in his second full season. A bit surprised this isn’t discussed more.
The fancies are pretty good. Running some bad luck (as LT has described) in the GF/GA category. But they seem to suggest he’s having a pretty good year playing 2nd pair comp with raw rookie partners.
There’s been a few boner moments but single events are still single events. Even if they cost a point.
At 23 years old in a second full year Id say he’s doing just fine for his draft position. Not blowing the doors off, but not failing by any measure. Lots of room for upside.
Bouchard’s 2nd season looks a hell of a lot like Quinn Hughes 2nd season (though many of Bouchard’s relative numbers are better).
Of course, Bouchard has about 60% of a season left for his HDGF and GF% to regress to last season’s levels.
Even if Bouch isn’t a superstar he has undeniable skill and an elite shot
He has size and is at least a decent skater. Not all D round their games out at 23. Mid 20’s often. There was this guy called CFP that took a while, even got traded as a young guy
Turned out not bad, not that the two will be similar
Isn’t the thing you draft for top offense because defense can be learned?
Barrie isn’t a long term option bcs as someone here said if he’s your top D you’re in trouble. On a strong team he’s a sheltered specialist but too expensive for this team
If Bouch can’t be a solid top 4 he’ll be moved around a few times like Barrie and Schultz
I agree with a lot of this but think the future for Barrie isn’t this clear.
In a role suited to his attributes he’s damn effective. Barrie wouldn’t put up the numbers he has in Ceci’s role. But with a solid partner and the right comp he’s thriving. That’s not a negative on team or player, it’s awesome that he’s assigned properly and is delivering!
I could see a Dan Boyle like future for Barrie. At the right price point and until his boots fail, why not keep him around? He keeps the cost of Bouchard in check on PP points. Valuable. This is also why I’m loathe to move Kulak. He’s helping not hindering.
Bouchard is near untouchable for me at this point. He’s too young. I’d go bridge on way before I trade him. His contract should fit between Ceci and Kulak. Keep him through Drai’s resign. If the cost is too dear in a few years cause he overperforms trade him ala Tkachuk.
You should know by then.
Oilers D 5v5 +/-
Barrie +4
Niemelainen +3
Kulak 0
Nurse -2
Ceci -2
Broberg -3
Murray -4
Bouchard -12
Expected GF%
Bouchard
Nurse
Ceci
Barrie
Niemo
Broberg
Kulak
Murray
Not to mention the Ryan Murray effect with Bouch (0.5 goals).
Oilers FW’s 5v5 +/-
Yamamoto +6
Kane +3
Shore +2
Kostin +1
McDavid 0
Hyman 0
Ryan -1
Draisaitl -2
Foegele -2
Hamblin -2
Janmark -3
McLeod -3
RNH -4
Holloway -4
Malone -4
Puljujarvi -11
Gregg McKegg has been quite the underperformer thus far
Luke Esposito is a better AHL player.
Both these statements ring true to me.
Chaulk’s public verbal has not been kind to McKegg either.
In the last 12 drafts – the Oilers have selected 9 players from the Edmonton area or a son of a coach.
None of these picks have played 100 games for the Oilers yet.
How does that compare to the Oilers draft performance on non-Edmonton area players picked in similar spots over that time?
If you exclude the 1st round, the Oilers have only drafted 4 players (out of 68) who played 100 games for the team over that same span. So in the last 12 years, 1 in 17 Oilers picks has played 100 games for the club, or 1 in 14 non-Edmontonians. If Skinner hits 100 games, Oilers are batting above their average on Edmonton area players vs non Edmonton area players over the last 12 years.
Seems more like a problem with bad drafting overall than drafting too close to home.
They should just draft who they think Dallas or Stevie Y would
Sparta Prague is FULL VALUE for their 3-0 lead on Canada – dominating the 2nd.
Put me firmly in the group that thinks this team has underachieved all season and the best is yet to come. You just know that at some point they’re going to rattle off a ten game win streak. Perhaps the centers three format can bring some balance and stability and the goaltending can get settled in. And a defensemen at the deadline should help the blue line.
Heres to Reid getting into some games in the tournament, would be fun to watch.
I wasn’t able to get to the Christmas post until this morning, hoping everyone’s been having a decent holiday season. I know it can bring mixed feelings for some. Especially you and your family this year LT. Thinking of you.
Good point LT about “what does Phoenix want for Chyckrun”, as opposed to “what are fans willing to part with”.
Dorion and Sakic set the bar in terms of how to sell a player.
Dorion ultimately netted 5 roster players for Erik Karlsson: Norris, Tierney, De Melo, Balcers, and Sanderson.
Sakic got Sam Girard and Bowen Byram for Matt Duchesne.
For Armstrong he probably needs two quality young assets and two roster players with future trade value.
The hockey world has observed Chyckrun perform very well (all star level, really), since coming back from injury. The assets the Oilers can offer in return (Holloway, Broberg, Bourgault, Puljujarvi, Foegele), have all struggled to perform or take a step.
As you suggest, LT, Bill Armstrong is probably not convinced.
That said, I’m not sure what Ottawa, LA, or Seattle have convincing players either. I believe Chyckrun will be traded by the end of January and it may be the case of needing to be the tallest midget.
I think the team to keep an eye on is the LAK.
Blake has 5 NHL calibre RHD and has said he will look at balancing his roster in the new year.
When Brandt Clarke returns from the WJHC, the issue will come clearly into focus.
LA has the draft picks and a very deep prospect pool to draw on as well as the cap space to easily accommodate Chychrun.
Maybe Dorion and Sakic set the bar but I feel EK is a poor comparable. He already bagged a Norris trophy and a lot more substantial resume overall than Chychrun. The template these days seems to often be a first rounder, quality prospect and young cost controlled roster player. I think Arizona has a higher ask than the player is worth, but that’s driven by the fact that they don’t need to rush to make a trade. They’re hoping someone will be desperate enough to pay the asking price. So far over around 2 years that is yet to happen. Maybe it does or maybe Chychrun gets pissed at them taking so long and demands a quicker trade. That would force a change in the demand.
Bouchard and McLeod can be offered for Chychrun. (Holloway, Bourgault, and Broberg are on ELC’s next season, Bouchard and McLeod have to be paid real money). Nugent-Hopkins is signed long term in Edmonton and he essentially occupies McLeod’s spot, and well, Holloway’s best spot will be centre).
Bouchard, Puljujarvi, and the 2013 1st would be my offer for Chychrun. I would consider Bouchard, McLeod, Puljarvi, and the 2013 1st, but would want a 2013 3rd and 2014 3rd back.
Good points.
As per my above statement it’s a damn shame that virtually all of the Oilers’ younger players have underperformed this season.
Bouchard for Chyckrun might’ve been a 1 for 1 trade this off-season.
Develop players and trade them as they make an impact and continue to be value contract.
McLeod is far from “untradeable” but he’s not going to be overly-expensive, probably ever, but certainly over the next few years. Battle level will always be an issue with McLeod but he’s developing in to, not only, an effective two-way 3C but high end PK guy and, given he’s highly likely to be cheap for a long time, that has real value.
Yes, Nuge can play 3C, and I’m sure he will play plenty over the years but having McLeod allows various other deployments – with Nuge as LW or the McDavid/Drai load up, etc.
We don’t know what Holloway will be and he’ll likely play more wing on this team in the near future.
My trade for Chychrun is 1st, Kulak, Puljuarvi.
That may not do it for the Yotes but Kulak makes too much to be 3LD and Broberg is already ready for 3LD and will be ready to be an impact 3LD/2LD next season.
I know you think that Bouchard is fully developed defensively, on this ELC, but reality is he has 200 games and years until that’s really the case – Codi Ceci, as a local example, says hi. Bouchard has top 5 offence potential.
Bouchard will not be a value contract next year. The Oilers will be overpaying for boxcars with an inability to defend.
I don’t think the McDavid Oilers will be tight enough as a team defensely for the Oilers to see only the good Larry Murphy. Bowman ran a tight ship. The team around Murphy and Murphy could be synergistic. When the team can’t do that, Murphy got booed out of two NHL cities.
The worst contracts in the NHL are typically to offensive D who cannot defend. And these D are always available on the UFA market.
You use the phrase “can’t defend” like this is a 28 year old veteran when reality is he’s on his ELC and will likely improve in varies areas for years.
Yup, I presume he will be a value contract next season – there are various ways his contract can go. We know Holland generally grinds players coming off their ELCs and, if he doesn’t its very likely a result of some real positive regression from Bouchard.
PS – Bouchard has the top expected GF% among the Oilers D.
Bouchard and Barrie are playing within 2 seconds a game of each other on the PK, and Bouchard has the best PK results and underlying numbers of any Oilers defenseman.
That’s not a flashing yellow light – that’s the incumbent that is now 3-years in to the best PK in the league, keeping his job as the develop and work in his eventual replacement.
Ummmm, Bouchard, as a rookie, played more on the PK last year than Broberg this year. Bouchard also plays more on the PK this year than Broberg as well…..
Holland has to keep an eye on who remains affordable and has to learn to deal youth for solid returns
Running Connor Leo requires that. To have more high paid players would take high end cap management and a cap going up lots, or Leo or Nurse have to go
Never Connor. You retire players like Connor
A great read on how Adam Oates goes about maximizing player’s performance.
https://theathletic.com/4029945/2022/12/26/bo-horvat-canucks-goal-scorer-adam-oates/?source=user_shared_article
Would Jesse benefit from this ?
No doubt he would
Makes me wonder if the Oilers are receptive to “outside intervention “
Why wouldn’t they be?
Eberle worked with Oates.
Connor attends the Biosteel camps annually.
Nurse has a skills coach.
Mike Smith saw a goalie coach in Kelowna his final off-season and markedly improved his rebound control and tracking.
Recent precedent suggests the Oilers as an organization have nothing against “outside intervention” as you’ve so clumsily dubbed players seeking improvement. Which is typical across the league.
The correct angle, rather, is Jesse willing to put in the work to improve his craft, or is he another Yakupov?
I’ll be surprised if Puljujarvi gets offered more than $1M to play for an NHL team next season.
Once his pay stub takes a 2/3rd’s hit his ears should open up and his attitude will shift.
There are almost 50 more NHL games to play and I have little doubt they will go “better” for Jesse than the first 30 or so.
Enough to get qualified? Maybe not.
Enough to sign a lower AAV term contract with the Oilers? Maybe, likely not but maybe.
Enough to, while not get qualified, sign a higher than $1MM (but lower than $3MM) AAV contract elsewhere? Perhaps.
He’s a 750 now
If I’m not mistaken, Schaeffer got a bunch of PK time and was physical in the pre-tournament games that he played. That should keep him in the lineup and with ice. Will he be able to earn, or force, any offensive opportunities or time up the lineup?
Injuries are also an issue every year it seems, so I’d expect his time to be substantial based on that alone. He has impressed me in limited mins with his pk ability, especially getting in shooting lanes. Could use that skill on the big club these days!
Injuries may already be happening as Masters says Guenther left the morning skate early with a L arm injury. Start the countdown to liftoff of the Reid Rocket!
If we are going by injury history, well, we have to think its the Oilers’ prospect that will be the injured one. This is said in jest but, truth be told, Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault, etc. all hurt at this tournament. I think Munzenburger as well if I remember correctly.
All three of EDM 1st-round picks you name suffered an injury in a tournament opener in Edmonton. It was uncanny.
At least they are playing somewhere else this time, & I for one am glad of it.
Mark Masters
@markhmasters
·
15m
https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1e8-1f1e6.svg coach Williams also called over Bankier, Dach, Ostapchuk, Schaefer for some final instructions
“Their game will never be evaluated on scoring … their strength is size & using their big bodies to really lean on our opponents …”
Who is our best player when it comes to picking up loose change in the crease and making a deposit? This player should then play with Hyman who has tunnel vision but can eventually get the puck on net. PS, if the loose change guy is Hyman, who is the second best? Could Klim be that guy?
Kane… second best is Hyman… third Jesse, but he can’t cash
Imo Nuge plays best with Hyman, he doesn’t need the puck on his blade and is excellent at following up behind Hymans tunnel vision.
Agreed. If we’re not running unicorns, RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman make for a deadly line. Connor and Evander can play with just about anyone else and still remain effective.
I believe both Broberg and Holloway are at the place where they are ready to be developed at the NHL level and that is what the org is attempting to do.
I do agree that that deployment of Holloway does seem peculiar at time. With that said, he did get 2-3 shots “up the lineup” earlier in the season and when you are playing minutes against a higher quality of comp, well, the mistakes often end up in the back of our net and it happened a few times for the youngster.
When McDavid and Drai were loaded, I did think Janmark and Holloway could have “shared the 2LW spot” a bit but Woody didn’t go there.
I do like that Holloway sees PP2. I do like that he plays some center.
On Broberg, they were working him in very well at 3LD and he was starting to earn more minutes and settle in a bit – hence, another damn setback injury wise. He should be back soon and hopefully can gain traction.
Lets not forget, draft plus 4 and year 2 in North America was also Klefbom’s 1st mostly full season in the NHL and he struggled big time.
Broberg is developing right on time and playing as anticipating and expected. The ONLY concern right now is staying healthy and its becoming a real concern.
So far it’s been another disappointing season. The coaching staff is scattered it seems, the handling of Holloway is bizarre. The Oilers aren’t a playoff team right now especially if Nurse is their top Dman. Good trades need to happen, but are they available? Looking more like 2018-19, maybe getting to the Conference Finals is good enough for them. I hope it’s not another 5 years before they make a run again.
If it’s five years from now, the management, coaching and roster will all be different.
I think there is a history that proves Darnell Nurse can be the top d-man on a playoff team.
32 games (or so) does not erase or re-write a career history.
The question remains, IF Nurse is your top D man, can that team win a Cup?
History has not answered that question ….
That is indeed a relevant question – different than what was stated in the original post.
I would posit:
1) we KNOW Nurse can be much better than he has this season, with even bigger minutes.
2) we KNOW that Nurse has played some of the toughest minutes in the world with the likes of Barrie, Bear, Bouchard, Ceci as his partner. He’s never had the opportunity to play with even another low level top pairing guy.
Nurse is going to be the Oilers top Dman, even after the trade for another defensemen (unless it is Karlsson).
Broberg is the only D in the organizaton with the potential to eventually dislodge him but that is years away.
Holloway seems to be getting better every game. I know a lot of people want him in the top six but he still makes too many little mistakes to be in a feature role. The kind of mistakes he makes are along the wall moving the puck up the ice into a safe spot. He still tries risky little passes through the middle that get picked off. He will learn. I’d like to see him land on the 3rd line with Nuge. He should be getting 11- 13 mins a night otherwise maybe send him down for 3 weeks. Oilers haven’t handled him wells far. He isn’t helping the team at all these days playing 7 mins a night yet they won’t send him down to get his game going.
One doesn’t know what one doesn’t know. Perhaps another team has more of what Arizona wants? Who else is most likely in on bidding for Chychrun?
and Happy Boxing Day to all
I think there are MANY teams that would have real interest in this player – contenders and bottom feeder (given his contract).
I think all teams are concerned about his injury history and giving up such major assets with that risk. There is simply no way for the player to “prove” there doesn’t need to be a concern.
I think he’ll get moved, the return will be substantial but not the 4 pieces that Arizona are looking for – remove a piece due to that risk.