Game 36 2022-23: Oilers at Flames

The Edmonton Oilers had an unsatisfactory 1-1-2 run leading up to Christmas, and have been sputtering along at a point-per-game since the start of November. No one is overly worried, because everyone knows this team could rip off a 9-1-0 run led by 97 and 29 starting tonight.

There are holes on the roster, but general manager Ken Holland has made his bets and is patient. So, Jack Campbell’s struggles, Philip Broberg’s halting progress and injuries, the Bouchard troubles, the lack of right wing quality, all of those things may frustrate you. Holland? He’s counting on enough of those things to regress before the deadline. It’s going to be an interesting nine weeks.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
• Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, quality prospects
• DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
• New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
• Lowetide: What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
• Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer make the NHL leap next season? 
• New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
• DNB: Why the Oilers need to make a trade to give Darnell Nurse more help on defence
• Lowetide: Ranking Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 5 best trades in Edmonton
• DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
• Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers avert disaster with strong finish to November
• DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland Q&A: Can the team be improved? If so, how?
• Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Jack Campbell will be better, but can he be a true No. 1?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

• On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: MTL, WAS, ARI, MIN (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
• On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• At home to: STL, ANA (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-1-1)
• On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
• At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• On the road to: CAL, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• December expected result: 9-5-1, 19 points in 15 games
• December actual result: 5-5-2, 12 points in 12 games
• November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
• October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2022-23: 18-15-2, 38 points in 35 games

A win tonight puts Edmonton on a trajectory for 91 points and that should be a playoff spot but it’ll be close. Beating Calgary tonight would help, in regulation would be ideal. Edmonton nor Calgary can declare victory after tonight. There’s a chance one of the Alberta teams won’t make the playoffs so there is some weight to this game. As much as the Oilers have the firepower, Seattle has the defense and mostly nobody has the goalie in this division.

LEFT DEFENSE, RIGHT WING, GOALTENDING

Fans are clamoring for Ken Holland to find help, but the general manager known for patience is unlikely to make a deal until close to the trade deadline, 86 days away. There is some logic in the idea of waiting. Edmonton isn’t in imminent danger of missing the playoffs and some of the performances in the last 10 games offer hope.

Among forwards, five-on-five pts-60 totals for Klim Kostin, Warren Foegele and Kailer Yamamoto have spiked. Dylan Holloway has a 75 percent goal share five-on-five in the last 10 games, Foegele and Yamamoto 60 percent and Kostin 56 percent.

On defense, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak and Philip Broberg are all 50 percent five-on-five goal share over the last 10. Tyson Barrie (58 percent) leads the club, although Markus Niemelainen has a 67 percent share but in just four games. Evan Bouchard, at 47 percent, is much improved of late.

In net over the last 10 games at five-on-five, Stuart Skinner (.912) has faded a little while Jack Campbell (.907) is finding his game. In the first 25 games of the season, Skinner was .935 (in 13 games) and Campbell .886 (also in 13 games). Skinner has delivered 12 of 20 quality starts (60 percent) and Campbell five of 15 (33 percent).

Holland waits because he isn’t certain of the holes that will be filled. Can Broberg or Niemelainen matriculate? Holland will get a replacement for Ryan Murray, but if one of the kids emerges the quality of the addition doesn’t have to be pristine. Same situation in goal? Is Campbell recovering? Or could Edmonton send him to Bakersfield and grab a replacement for the playoffs? Seems unlikely, but the general manager will want protection for Skinner either way. A RHC who can penalty kill would be a fine addition, and there’s plenty of clamoring for a big, rugged winger (I vote Trent Frederic) to be added before the deadline.

I wonder about right wing. There isn’t enough offense coming from the position. My guess is Holland has a scoring winger much higher on his list than he’s letting on. We’ll see.

Holland has guided his team into the postseason in each of his seasons with the Oilers. In year one, Edmonton lost in the qualifying round, next season round one, and last year made it to the final four. That’s progress.

It’s also pressure. The current edition of the Oilers is about equal to one year ago, meaning Holland knows there is work to do. Last season, the team was very patient with Mike Smith (expect the same with Campbell), spike when Kane arrived (assume Holland is counting on the same when Kane returns from injury) and replaced the head coach (extremely unlikely during the season).

There’s work to do. I wonder if Holland contemplates a January move for a scoring right winger. Defense likely waits until the deadline to make sure the pool of available talent is as deep as possible, but a scoring right winger should be an easier get. Ilya Mikheyev, Josh Anderson and Yegor Chinakhov are interesting options.

THE POST-CHRISTMAS SPIKE

For as long as I’ve been doing this blog, AHL prospects spike after Christmas. Not all of them, and not every year, but odds are Xavier Bourgault (8-7-15 in 26 games), Tyler Tullio (4-3-7 in 21 games) and Carter Savoie (20 games, 3-2-5) will post superior numbers now through the end of the season. It probably has to do with the game becoming familiar and players figuring out what works and what does not work at this level. I’ll also suggest the head coach should know his young players better now. Men who are spiking who have been in the AHL, but are pushing for an NHL look: Mike Kesselring (8-3-11 in 26 games), Olivier Rodrigue (.916 SP in 16 games) and Phil Kemp (5-6-11 in 26 games). Condors play tonight against San Jose Barracuda at 6pm Edmonton time.