It’s been several years since this blog began the transition from the NHL season ongoing to prospects and the draft, but we are here once again. The Bakersfield Condors played two in Calgary against the Wranglers this week, and some conclusions can be drawn.
As you may know, I like to monitor performances after Christmas for rookie pro players. Why? Back in the olden days, I noticed some players spiked in a big way in the second half of their freshman year.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers winger Warren Foegele has been odd man out, so what’s next?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Should Oilers GM Ken Holland trade the 2023 first-round pick?
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen pursue final defence spot
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenceman despite struggles
- DNB: How Oilers are different yet similar to last season through 35 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard’s difficult season disguises elite talent
- New DNB: Why the Oilers should, but probably won’t, acquire Jakob Chychrun
- New DNB: Oilers throwing away points as defencemen continue to make crucial mistakes
- DNB: Oilers’ Klim Kostin much happier in Edmonton than he was with Blues
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
- Lowetide: Will Oilers pro scouts help identify quality at the deadline?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- January actual result: 1-2-1, 3 points in 4 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 21-17-3, 45 points in 41 games
The Oilers are in a tie for 10th in the Western Conference based on winning percentage, and the penalty kill has sprung a leak. Ordinarily it would be easy to project a win tonight, and another in San Jose later in the week. It’s my opinion Oilers fans should approach this team with a “so what?” approach until wins come against both the poorer teams and at least some of the good ones. Oilers need some strong performances from middle-six players tonight.
Edmonton would draft No. 12 today based on current winning percentage. The Oilers would also hold the Nos. 44 and 76 selections, meaning three picks in the top-100 overall. It would be the first time since 2019 the team had three picks in the first 100. My No. 12 prospect is Braydon Yager of the Moose Jaw Warriors, he’s someone to get excited about as a prospect, but not what Oilers fans were hoping to be discussing in the early days of January.
BACK IN THE OLD HIPPIE DAYS
One of the players I noticed 20 years ago played his rookie pro season with the Edmonton Roadrunners of the AHL. The Roadrunners didn’t have a lot of firepower, and they played in the season the Oilers did not play (lockout). It wasn’t fabulous hockey compared to the NHL, but I enjoyed it because prospects are one of the things I love tracking.
I paid attention to a rookie pro, age 20, named Kyle Brodziak. The reason was his numbers in his draft season looked quite similar to Edmonton’s first-round selection (Marc Pouliot) and I wondered if math could project their futures. Here’s Brodziak with the Roadrunners, first and second half:
- First half: 28 games, 4-11-15 (.54 pts-game)
- Second half: 28 games, 2-15-17 (.61 pts-game)
- Total for 2004-05: 56 games, 6-26-32 (.57 pts-game)
Brodziak did enjoy a small uptick. He wasn’t a feature player, in fact he scored just .56 pts-game in his second season in the AHL. However, he increased his shot total by 60 (in one fewer game) and then blossomed in his third AHL season (24-32-56 in 62 games). Brodziak had a solid NHL career, carved from the depths of the 2003 draft where he was an overager chosen in the seven round, long after the expensive suits flew home.
Marc Pouliot was 20 and turned pro the following season with the more impressive Hamilton Bulldogs. It was a shared team (Montreal, Edmonton), MAP had fantastic linemates and played a feature role on the power play. Here are his splits.
- Before Christmas: 33 games, 7-15-22 (.67 pts-game)
- After Christmas: 33 games, 8-15-23 (.70 pts-game)
- Total for 2005-06: 66 games, 15-30-45 (.68 pts-game)
There is no second half spike to speak of here. Pouliot’s numbers were better, but his team averaged 2.81 goals-per-game while Brodziak’s Roadrunners averaged 2.51 goals-per-game. They were closer than it appeared on draft day (I wrote a long and boring post at hf boards about it, belaboring the math point until people stopped commenting on it). I think my initial question, is Brodziak the equal of Pouliot, was answered in the affirmative somewhere along the way.
THIS YEAR’S CONDORS
XAVIER BOURGAULT
- Before Christmas: 26 games, 8-7-15 (.58 pts-game)
- After Chrtistmas: 6 games, 0-0-0
- Total for 2022-23: 32 games, 8-7-15 (.47 pts-game)
The Condors are averaging 2.63 goals-per-game this season, a little more than the Roadrunners of 20 years ago. The second half has been poor for Bourgault but the Condors have injuries and recalls to the sky and are in a tough part of the schedule. It’ll be interesting to see if the first-round pick, who can score in all three game states, has a strong run from here. He is still getting touches through the lean run.
TYLER TULLIO
- Before Christmas: 21 games, 4-3-7 (.33 pts-game)
- After Chrtistmas: 6 games, 0-1-1 (.17 pts-game)
- Total for 2022-23: 27 games, 4-4-8 (.30 pts-game)
Tullio’s offense at even strength (8 points) matches Bourgault’s in fewer games. I don’t know what he is really, but suspect (as his scouting report implied) he’ll be able to fill more spots in the lineup than Bourgault.
CARTER SAVOIE
- Before Christmas: 20-3-2-5 (.25 pts-game)
- After Christmas: 4 games, 1-1-2 (.50 pts-game)
- Total for 2022-23: 24 games, 4-3-7 (.29 pts-game)
Among the 20-year olds Savoie’s post-Christmas performance is off to a good start. He’s a smart player who can cause havoc if he can turn the corner and head to the net. They have to play him, find out what he is.
NOAH PHILP
- Before Christmas: 25 games. 3-1-4 (.16 pts-game)
- After Christmas: 6 games. 2-1-3 (.5 pts-game)
- Total for 2022-23: 31 games, 5-2-7 (.23 pts-game)
Philp has been productive and increasingly looks like an AHL veteran. That’s reasonable, since he is 24 and the others are 20. Philp is a RH center who can play in all situations, so has a nice range of skills that could be useful in Edmonton. I don’t know if any of these men will play in the NHL, although Bourgault seems likely as a first-round selection. Philp is the easiest to project into an NHL role. If the Woodcroft coaching staff deemed him capable of helping on the PK, he’d move ahead of Devin Shore immediately.
DesCHARAnais looked a little like a younger version of the big man. Late bloomer, hope he continues to improve.
The Ducks are butter soft. Klingberg was a complete non-factor. Glad we didn’t sign him to a bloated contract this summer.
I know this is obscure…digging into the 2016 draft, Comparing NHL Games played by round drafted…
Round 1, every single player drafted played at least 1 game.
Round 2, 7 players have 0 NHLGP
Round 3, 11 players have 0 NHLGP
Round 4, 15 (exactly half) have 0 NHLGP
Round 5, 21 players have 0 NHLGP
Round 6, 21 players have 0 NHLGP
Round 7, 26 out of 30 players drafted have 0 NHLGP
Let’s set the bar at 5 games: how many players failed to reach 5NHLGP in the 2016 draft by round
R1: 2 players failed to hit 5GP, Philly and Washington had busts
R2: 8 players failed, Tyler Benson has played 38 games.
R3: 20 players failed, Neimo was picked 3 spots before Adam Fox…
R4: 17 players failed, Gregor’s Nephew stands out in this round with 48p in 140GP.
R5: 24 / 30 failed to hit 5GP, Dylan Wells, EDM Goalie with his 1st and only GP for CHI
R6: 24 failed to hit 5GP, Jesper Bratt is the star of this round
R7: 28 of 30 failed to hit 5GP, That will change to 27 if Desharnais gets 4 more GP.
I love a round 7 success story, If Dezzy (as Woody called him) hits 50 games I’ll run another comparison.
Watched on delay. Some “thoughts”…
— Lol, glue Klim to Nuge. Screw that McDavid poser. Seriously, what a find by Holland’s scouts. K-Smart now leads Gritensity in Oiler scoring and is sustaining a position up the line-up. It’s the equivalent of having a 3rd rounder pop, something many of us have been dreaming about. Safe to say he will be going nowhere, if when Kane returns they still need to cut salary.
— Desharnais has better hands than Niemo. Better touch. He relays the puck well even when he’s off balance or under duress. Now, there really isn’t a spot for anyone on the right side, but you can see why they want to give Vinnie some minutes. If there’s any sort of injury, and they have another guy on the farm that can play at this level… And a good arrow so far. Looked confident–assertive, involved–and that might be the most important thing the first time out.
— 97 was full McMagic tonight. Could’ve had like 8 points and dear lord whaddagoal. May that fill highlight reels for years to come. And then Drai with maybe the cheekiest goal he’ll ever score. There was a little Tkachuk in that one. Those two goals make an otherwise innocuous game one to remember for the ages.
— Good to see the PK go 100%. The first powerplay was super interesting to me. It’s rare to see PP2 get that much time that early in the game. They had some really nice zone time, but struggled to get the puck to Bouch in a shooting position and one would think that would be one of their primary plays, especially without Kane.
— The Ducks have beat us (and other good teams) and are only over-matched when we play the right way. Tonight we did. After the Avs game I wasn’t as discouraged as everyone else was. Looked like process to me. They played patient, but way too passive. Tonight they played patient, but not passive. That’s the groove. They kept at them all game, great to see.
Question is, has this team had it’s “Come to Jesus” moment? Have they seen the light? Are they truly committed to playing the right way, every game? They give us these flashes.. Yes, tonight was an easy test. Just what the doctor ordered in fact. And they put in 60 minutes of playing smart, hard hockey despite the opponent, despite the score. For once.
So as far as accepting Manwood as their One True Savior goes, in my opinion, all the arrows are pointing that way since the team meeting. Born again. But now we need to see some sustain. A run of success… A month of Missouri. Show me.
…We wait.
Unfortunately, for now, the evidence points to the answer to your question being “NO” – the team has had very strong performances a few times this season, stronger than this one and against better teams, and have regressed, sometimes after that one single game.
IF they do continue to play like this consistently (with the odd stinker as every team throws out), they could indeed rack off MANY wins. The schedule, my goodness, its middling team after middling team after middling team for a LONG time.
Honestly, we should lay off our entire amateur scouting department and not even attend the draft for the next 4 years. Let’s trade every single draft pick and load up. 3 firsts + barrie for Karlsson @ 50% retained? 1st, three 2nds, Kulak for Chychrun…
Boys needed that one.
Deshernais was a lot better handling the puck than I thought….
The 53 shots was the most for the franchise on the road (and it wasn’t a “fire from everywhere” game, it was a “had the puck all game” event.
What happened with Barrie? Hurt? I didn’t see him on the ice in the third.
Just under 12 mins of ice. The lowest of the d. I honestly didn’t even realize he was out. Hopefully it’s just precautionary since we were up by a lot at the time…
I think it might have been an “in-game rest” with 4RD in the lineup and a blowout. I know he was banged up recently (missed practice with Drai a few weeks back).
Fine performance tonight .
Quality of competition be damned! Our boys were supposed to win, and they did… convincingly. It feels good to feel good. Tonight was good. Pretty good game for the rookie D, he is a very big boy, hits hard… luv it.
Expected outcome but still fun.
Klim is a keeper. I like the chemistry with Nuge and Janny. Sure liked seeing The Highlander between Hollywood and Yammo. It’s was only one shift but they owned the puck. Wouldn’t mind seeing that for a stretch. It would free up Drai to play with Connor. Maybe Drai’s body language will improve…
Vinny looked good! Solid gaps, good stick and physical. Made some decent passes and didn’t panic. Can’t ask for much more than that.
Bro and Bouch are gonna be our second pairing soon. They’re starting to play off each other and look pretty calm out there.
Campbell needed a game like this. Let’s hope it’s the start of more confident play from him.
Philip Broberg is developing in front of our eyes in real time….
Hes making everything look easy these last few games. I don’t think he took a hard hit this game. The game has definitely slowed down now. Can’t wait til he starts joining the rush more. I’d like to see some of those end to enders we’ve heard about from the ahl.
He’s top 4 quality. Lots of smart plays all over the ice.
Yaasssss!
Soup with two starts >0.900 for the first time since late October.
Now go do it again Friday!
Nurse did not have a great game moving the puck to my eyes. I would be interested in seeing the micro stats.
Fuck that!
Leave Nurse alone until the playoffs at least…
Hahaha. I like Nurse!
That pass to Yamo for the breakaway would’ve been perfect if Yamo was 7’5 instead of 5’7.
From NHL_Sid on twitter:
Only complaint about tonight’s game is that Nurse could have been better defensively. Allowed a controlled entry on all 4 targets against, had 5 failed zone exits (all turnovers), and a mediocre 40% DZ retrieval success%.
He did have 9 entries, although 7 of them were dump-ins.
The controlled entries against him are probably the most frustrating part of his game. Given his speed, size and athleticism, he should be playing a tight gap on those rather than backing off at the blueline. He’d have much more success.
At LTs behest: Meh, now do it against an NHL lineup.
Fuck you GI!
Ducks are in the NHL that qualifies the pricks.
Get over it lol
McDavid played 15:21 tonight…….
Unofficial, but my eye tells me that Kostin had 47 shot attempts – give or take.
desharnias kinda gives me ingo montoya vibes
NOW PREPARE TO DIE!
Refs call that penalty on Jesse in the name of getting Campbell’s save percentage up a bit more….
Campbell over 900 hurrah hurrah
LOL – after the no-call on Hyman, they actually call a penalty against the Oilers……
And the no-call on Nuge’s breakaway
Kostin should have 5 Goals.
Could of had 5 goals.
Future top player mark my words…
Broberg xGF=92%
Stolarz keeping this game to single digits…glad he didn’t start…
Kostin is not afraid to shoot the puck
No sir
He’s the anti Puljujarvi
God bless you!
finally a voice that understands reality
He’s got a heavy shot that he gets off quickly and with good accuracy. Jesse would be a helluva player if could learn to shoot like that.
McLeod hands on full display tonight yet he’s the one that will get a Goal in double overtime in the Playoffs.
McLeod is a decent player, and diss him at your peril.
And Woody gettin Kostin decent line mates
Broberg is silky smooth, man.
I think Woody is trying to get Kostin his hatty….
What a pass by Leon to Kostin. My goodness, shame it didn’t cash.
Oil running set plays to got Kostin a hatty
McLeod, Hollywood and Yammo look so fast together! Kid line?
McLeod centrist the 1st line wingers on that shift.
Come on hockey gods give the Soup two more saves! I only ask for two more saves!
And no goals of course, two saves but no goals.
piss off the Oilers good job Ducks. 👏 Oilers need the rough stuff to galvanize
Atta boy Kostin way to stick up for your line mate.
What chemistry the Nuge line has! Also some grit, too. Don’t break up that line, whatever you do.
Have a night 3rd line…..
McLeod continues to get chances – over two games now.
I guess that happens plying with Leon….
He’s had two great chances. He’s gotta get one soon or his confidence is gonna take a hit, methinks. Rootin for the kid.
He scored last game no?
Yes, he did – he’s probably had 7 point blank looks at the net through 2 games which is what I was getting at.
Desharnais isn’t fast or anything, but he moves alright.
With his wingspan he only has to not get outta position to be effective. He’s been good at it so far. He knows his game and plays it well. Better with the puck than I expected, tbh
Yes, so far so good.
Bouch’s offensive confidance is back – firing dart passes.
Oh, Drai, move the puck to your multiple line mates that were open with time and space.
to casual in our zone, there. Barely touched the puck after a McD turnover.
Can’t just expect teams to roll over cuz we’re a better team.
Benoit (balls) with the bomb.
Thumbs up for the Archer reference.
Thanks! Most go unnoticed (and yet I continue).
Please do continue.
Interesting goalie ‘duel’ between old USNDP team-mates tonight.
Am feeling sheepish about coveting Gibson a year ago – what happened?
He’s doing what he always does. Starts strong and fades as the intensity ramps up.
Thx! Here’s hoping Mr Soup is ‘opposite Gibson’
Historically that’s correct, but he didn’t even start strong this year.
Oct: .888
Nov: .899
Dec: .907
Jan: .884
He’s just not a good goalie anymore.
Shot on net while Broberg is on the ice at 5 on 5: 13-2
lol Poor Jesse. Can’t win for tryin…
BOOM!!! Great pass and creative tip by Drai!!!
The Duck’s hosts are pretty good, all talk about the Oilers, more admiring of than the local guys are at times
Seem to know hockey better
They are one of my favourite host team broadcasters. Knowledgeable and not Homer’s
Drai just showing off with the between the legs tip in…LoL
Slick pass by Bouchard for the easy tip by Drai. Very nice, high skill play.
Vinny has looked really strong. I’m impressed. No jitters for the young/old rookie.