Before the season began, I was looking forward to seeing the Oilers rookie candidates find their way. In August, I picked Philip Broberg as the most likely to emerge as the top rookie. In January, it was Stuart Skinner. Now? Skinner has 25 wins and people are talking about him as a Calder candidate. It’s been a helluva ride. Question: What about next year’s rookies?
AUGUST 2022 (some words and music may be outdated)
Total Rookies of Interest: There are 7. Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Stuart Skinner, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Vincent Desharnais. I’m also including Xavier Bourgault because he’s skilled and there could be an opening.
2022 Draft Notes: The Oilers had only one pick of true value in 2022 and spent it on Reid Schaefer. You can criticize the team for identifying a need and then acting on that need, but at No. 32 overall that’s a pick with a chance to fill the role projected in the NHL someday. It’s clear the organization has made enormous progress over the last decade.
Best Player as a Rookie: Philip Broberg has 23 games experience, he was drafted by Holland and Woodcroft-Manson are Steve McQueen in Bullitt. Fast men play. He’ll get opportunities.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Dylan Holloway is a close second. I’ll throw Stuart Skinner in here in case opportunity knocks.
Oldest Rookie: Vincent Desharnais is 26.
Oldest Rookie Who Will Play a Lot: Stuart Skinner is 23, this is a young group.
Most Unusual Story: Noah Philp is not a known commodity. A college man with an interesting scouting report that dovetails perfectly with team need. Today, there’s very little ahead of him in terms of player-type and what he brings. RHC making under a million with two-way ability? Yes, please! A solid month in Bakersfield could get him a spin in Edmonton on the fourth line. I’m not saying it will happen, only that the way is clear.
Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner. Stay healthy, men.
Anything Else? Vincent Desharnais lingers in the shadows, like a character in an Agatha Christie novel. He isn’t central to the plot, but are you absolutely certain? He always shows up when things are happening, could he be a bigger character in the story? Woodcroft likes him, he’s righthanded and a crane in human form. He has a chance.
JANUARY 2023 (some words and music may be outdated)
Total rookies of interest: Not all of the seven named in August made it to the NHL this season. Dylan Holloway (44 games), Stuart Skinner (27), Markus Niemelainen (23), Philip Broberg (22) and Vincent Desharnais (6) made it, and James Hamblin (10) didn’t make my list but is in the NHL. Dmitri Samorukov was traded for Klim Kostin and Xavier Bourgault remains in the AHL.
2022 draft notes: Reid Schaefer has enjoyed a fine season, and Nikita Yevseyev has emerged as a legit prospect. Scott Wheeler also had nice things to say about Samuel Jonsson, so maybe there’s something there. The 2022 draft was only four players deep, but more than one true prospect is a rock solid trend based on where the Oilers were picking.
Best Player as a Rookie: Stuart Skinner. He delivered in the first half when the organization badly needed someone to save the day. His numbers are impressive (top SP among rookie regulars) and he has the calm of a confident goaltender ready for the challenge. An absolute Godsend.
Second best player: I’m going with Philip Broberg here. He has played fewer games with the Oilers but has helped settle things down. I know it’s not a major roster role, but Evan Bouchard was struggling to post outscoring numbers with previous partners (Bouchard’s underlying numbers have been strong all along) and Broberg has stepped in and flourished. Could be luck, but I give the Swedish blue the nod.
Oldest rookie: Vincent Desharnais is 26.
Most unusual story: James Hamblin didn’t get drafted and initially received just an AHL deal. He worked hard, found a way to impact the game, and has played in the NHL. I don’t know where he goes from here, but it’s a great story no matter what happens.
Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner. Stay healthy, men.
Anything else? Vincent Desharnais, man. His NHL debut and the games that followed have been surreal. Imagine having a need and finding it in the minor-league pipeline? No idea how long it lasts, but that was one inspired draft pick back in 2016. Like Skinner, he looks like he belongs.
THE FINAL LOOK (APRIL)
Total rookies of interest: There are five rookies to remember from this season. Dylan Holloway (51 games), Stuart Skinner (46), Philip Broberg (43), Vincent Desharnias (31) and Markus Niemelainen (23). This is a talented group. Last season, only Ryan McLeod (71, 9-12-21) was in the same range. Two years ago, the best rookie (Evan Bouchard) barely played (14, 2-3-5) so you never know.
2022 draft notes: Reid Schaefer was traded and that means 2022 is going to be the least productive draft in terms of GP with the Oilers in a long damn time. That said, Russian defenseman Nikita Yevseyev played 48 KHL games (5-2-7) in his draft plus one year and that’s a strong arrow.
Best player as a rookie: Skinner and it’s not close. I’m surprised, because Broberg and Holloway are top-15 overall picks. Skinner had a fine season.
Second best player: Broberg, who helped settle the third pairing and displayed the promise one would expect from such a high pick. Desharnais and Holloway could make a case, and if the season lasted longer, I think any of these men could win this category.
Oldest rookie: Vincent Desharnais still.
Most unusual story: Desharnais takes the lead, for one specific reason. Opponents really don’t like him. He is going to be one of the most hated Oilers in history by the end of next season. He’ll join the ranks of Mark Messier, Kelly Buchberger, Steve Smith, Jason Smith, Dave Manson, Brian Marchment, Don Jackson. He riles people up.
Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner.
Anything else? Unique bunch. Skinner has calm feet, stops pucks. Desharnais inspires quotes from Slap Shot (“this young man has had a very trying rookie season, with the litigation, the notoriety, his subsequent deportation to Canada and that country’s refusal to accept him”) and he’s effective in the NHL. Plus Holloway and Broberg should be NHL players in feature roles for years. It’s a fine group.
THE 2023-24 CROP
Total rookies of interest: Nine but it’s early. Xavier Bourgault is the first round pick, plus there’s Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie pushing from Bakersfield. Matvey Petrov, Noah Philp, Olivier Rodrigue and Phil Kemp are also worth noting this early in the proceedings. Maxim Berezkin might be the most promising prospect in the system, but he isn’t a KHL UFA for another year. No idea who is honoring what nowadays, but that is the date of his free agency.
2023 draft notes: The Oilers own their own second-, fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round selections. I think they’ll trade that second for two thirds. The best player they draft, someone like Coulson Pitre, will be shy of Bourgault and Berezkin offensively, but have enough potential to land ahead of Tullio, Savoie, Petrov and Yevseyev.
Best player as a rookie: This is a tough call from here, the Oilers are running to Stanley now and the summer is a distant bell. Based on talent and how well he played this year, I’ll suggest Lavoie has the edge now. So much of rookie success depends on opportunity, we don’t know enough yet.
Second best player: Bourgault is a first-round selection, so gets the nod here. He has an opening on right-wing, as Jesse Puljujarvi wasn’t fully replaced at the deadline.
Oldest rookie: Noah Philp will be 25 in August, he has a real shot. A RHC with size, two-way acumen and enough offense to stay in the lineup has value. There’s some parallels with Derek Ryan in terms of career progression, Ryan didn’t make the NHL until he was 28. Plenty of time for Philp, but I think he’ll arrive earlier than Ryan.
Most unusual story: Ilya Konovalov had another strong season in Russia, I wonder if the Oilers would have given him an NHL chance this year? Those strong KHL save percentages roll off the assembly line with impressive regularity.
Another unusual story: The Oilers traded Jesse Puljujarvi to the Carolina Hurricanes, choosing Patrik Puistola from a list of prospects. He needs to be signed by June 1, and the scouting report (scoring winger, can play either side) is solid if unspectacular. Puistola scored 16 goals on 155 shots (10.3 percent) so it’s a stretch to suggest he’ll be an NHL scoring winger but there is some range to his game based on reports. One imagines the Oilers will work hard to sign him, although the $3 million in relief had exceptional value. I don’t believe he should be considered a strong candidate for NHL play next season, but I don’t know this player so thought it was worth a mention.
Longest NHL career: Bourgault. Always bet on the first-round pick. His season may not seem like a player knocking on the door, but his points-game in the AHL (.554) isn’t so far away from Dylan Holloway or Kailer Yamamoto (both .667) and is better than Raphael Lavoie (.464) managed in his rookie season. I think we might be looking at a player in Bourgault who has more range, but enough skill to land an NHL job in the next 18 months.
Anything else? Ken Holland’s system has some mystery to it, so there’s a flock of players we have to at least ponder in terms of a possible NHL future. Ryan Fanti didn’t have a strong pro debut, but that doesn’t bury him as it might have in the past. In Holland’s minor-league system, Fanti has thrown about six warmup pitches. Maybe Skyler Brind’Amour and or Joel Määttä sign and impress in a specific role during training camp.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We have a great show today, 10-2 on TSN1260. Delighted to welcome Bryn Griffiths to the studio for a live conversation about his podcast ‘Cancer in the Room‘ he hosts with Dave Jamieson. We’ll chat about his heroic battle with cancer and about the top drawer guests who have and will appear. We’ll also chat about the Oilers strong finish and what it could mean for the playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Vegas playing some desperate hockey – desperate to not see the Oilers in round one 🙂
I don’t think we catch them in the time remaining but I’m not worried about starting a 2nd round series in Vegas. But we would be well advised to have home ice against LA – and I would really really like have home ice in a potential 3rd round matchup against the central division champs. We control our destiny on both those counts. Beat LA tomorrow – take care of business in ANA and SJS – then the last important game could be Colorado next week. Hopefully the final game against SJS at home next week is meaningless and we can rest anyone who has a few bumps or bruises.
I am not sure why anyone thinks a spot will be held open for any rookies next year. With where we are at I fully expect Holland to keep his bottom 6 cheap and interchangeable. Much like this year with Ryan, Janmark, Kostin and McLeod. Rookies will need to show better than who they will replace. Right now the bar is set at Shore for replacement level. IMO there are several rookies who could top that next year but will they.
Some of this will come down to how many players are on the roster. A full 23-man unit gives more room. Edmonton has several men who will be waiver eligible next season for the first time, that includes Vincent Desharnais, Raphael Lavoie, Markus Niemelainen and Phil Kemp. One would think Desharnais makes it, after that we’ll see. Seems unlikely the Oilers would lose Niemelainen on waivers, but stranger things have happened.
dunterpunter
April 3, 2023 10:18 pm
If McDavid wore Gretzky’s should pads, would he lift off and get tangled in the netting above the end boards?
“final update” of the season and i botched the values for the lower and middle class for the league leading to some exorbitant market values
whoops https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1fae1.svg
might have to make next week the final update to undo this fuckup lol
I followed rabbit a bit on dom’s explanation of model. Might be wrong but it kinda sounds like “usage adjustment” 5×5 (some form of QOT/QOC) might be magic knob a bit in model thus likely where recent miscalcs originate from.
Yeah I obviously have no idea the specifics, but I wouldn’t think Dom would be turning knobs to change the model in-season. Most likely the glitch, whatever it is, has a much more mundane origin than that.
His player valuation doesn’t really do much for me. The above market valuation of combined oiler players far exceeds cap in a way that it really seems like it should be globtrotteresque vs wizards on a nightly basis if it was close to representative.
Munny 2.0
April 3, 2023 6:15 pm
Just saw the clip of Mason Shaw hitting the boards and tearing his ACL. Don’t wish such a horrible injury on anyone.
Clouder on the trip but he says he’s likely a good week or so away. No surprise here as Holland recently updated that they are hoping for the last couple games of the regular season.
Now I know Stauff said overtly “not a concussion” but, damn does it sure sound like it when listening to the player and stuff. No real pain, no real rehab, just making sure its right and doesn’t get worse, etc.
I honestly blanked out on the nickname reference. After I posted in I realized that There can can only be one McLeod…,, When I try to cancel a post nothing happens I even try X each letter out but it then says message is to short to cancel. Does this happen to anyone else I’m on a I-phone? There’s been a handful of messages I’ve tried to extinguish to no avail.
Doubt it’s a concussion. Gregor was saying on his show last week that it was a really strange injury and he’s not aware of other hockey players having it before. Said he was going to ask McLeod for permission to say what it was on his show. I’m assuming he never got the go ahead as I haven’t hear Gregor mention it any further.
I think it was on Gregor when I heard him mentioning something about McLeod spitting up blood.
Fuge Udvar
April 3, 2023 4:48 pm
Seeing the Detroit model for development is live is incredible.
Two years ago people were very vocal about Bouchard’s playing time negatively effecting his development. And it was brought up last year as a reason for Bouchard’s wobble. Looking at his up and down play this year it looks like they made the right call and didn’t overload him early on.
Broberg is now in that same process. He has played a lot of games this year, I’m sure he is watching the game from the press ring completely differently to before his 60+ games in the NHL. People can point to his results and say play him more but maybe his results are because of how much he is playing.
Holloway’s injury was very unfortunate but I like how they weren’t scared to send him back to the A after 50 games. He only played 33 down in the A last year. Same with Broberg I’m sure the game looks completely different after a long stint in the show.
Lavoie could potentially be one of these forgotten 22-23 year old Holland prospects that fills a role nobody was expecting. Maybe Tullio or Savoie will be in this position in the next couple years.
Bourgault is getting the Holloway treatment. Potentially he also earns a chunk of NHL games next year and then finishes it out I’m the A.
Holland doesn’t seem to do the cup of coffee thing. He calls a guy up for a good chunk of games then backs off the pressure and then give them time.
Of course this is only possible because the team has been good. It’s easy to put prospects in a position to succeed we aren’t relying on them to win games.
Holland had no cap in Detroit that’s why there’s so many young players on ELC in the league right now. If your going to win a Cup in the cap world you need cheap labour.
I hear you but will add that I don’t think the Bourg has done enough yet to earn a cup and that this year’s roster ws so tight with cap and waiver concerns there was no room for Hey let’s give this kid a game.
Preferable the Oilers have young value deals on the roster, if only for deadline trades. I think Lavoie more likely than Philp, but agree it’ll be a pre-season head-to-head.
Yeah I mostly meant Lavoie. I think Holland will earmark a roster spot for him as he did for Benson.
Lavoie’s training camp will need to be strong to hold it (we saw Broberg failing to make the team despite Holland saying he’d need to lose the spot this fall). I think Benson’s situation is the best comparable though, with Lavoie also being waiver eligible.
Hi might but “leaving a spot open” for an unproven player (in this case, with zero NHL games) is a risk for a team looking to compete for Stanley. That was kind of the MO of some of the dark years, counting on prospects to fill NHL spots before they showed they are ready.
Holland’s MO is to have the roster filled and force the kids to take someone’s job.
Of course, filling the roster spot without the kid costs money but we are talking about a Kostin or Janmark type player to beat out.
Lavoie’s trade value at the deadline may mean a deal can be made. The Oilers don’t have a pile of prospects with plus value. I don’t think dropping Devin Shore and elevating Lavoie is a move that tips the balance of the roster in a negative way, but if it does, it’s minimal. Your mileage may vary.
Prospects were expected to fill important roles in the dark years. End of roster is different. And you need to incorporate youngsters into the lineup at some point.
We agree on taking someone’s job and not being gifted a spot. I think the quality of veteran that needs to be in the way is where we’re differing.
I don’t think having Kostin and Janmark quality players down to 14 or 15 forwards (at least entertaining camp) is reasonable. We will see I guess.
OriginalPouzar
April 3, 2023 2:25 pm
Chaulk mentioned today they hope to have Lavoie back for the game on Wed.
Jay Woodcroft says it’s a good sign that Ryan Murray is skating with the team again and he’ll join the Oilers on the road trip. However, Woodcroft noted that Murray’s return to the lineup isn’t imminent.
Tom Gazzola had some interesting tidbits about Murray on the Oil Stream podcast.
I’m paraphrasing, but he said Murray was the kind of guy to be showered, changed and on his way home while other players are still working on stuff in practice. Said he asked an Oilers exec about Murray who just rolled his eyes and shook his head.
It doesn’t sound like Murray is very well regarded and is probably around #10 on the depth chart if everyone’s healthy.
He’s the new Corey Perry… guarantee Stanley cup final. 😜
Victoria Oil
April 3, 2023 12:15 pm
Monday Fun Fact #2: After the Ottawa Philadelphia game last week in which Philly only had 11 shots (but managed 4 goals in a 5-4 loss), I dug into the record for fewest shots in a game. In October 1958, the Rangers had ZERO shots in a game against Detroit. Detroit had 31 shots and won 3-0.
No other team has had less than 7 shots in a game.
Despite the win that night, Detroit finished last in the league that year, one place behind the Rangers.
Bruce McCurdy could give more info on that game as he was in attendance, taking time off from his studies for his PhD in Astro-Physics. 🙂
Monday Fun Fact: The top 3 searched names on the Elite Prospects site this week were Bedard and Connor McDavid (no surprise there) and Cameron McDavid (after his interview with the great Gene Principe). Cameron played a couple seasons for Newmarket in the OJHL. If I recall correctly, I thought that the interview was on a regional broadcast only so I didn’t think that many people would have seen it.
Chelios is a Dinosaur
April 3, 2023 11:56 am
VD is going to lob a seeing-eye wrister through 6 dudes and a goalie in double OT at some point in the next two months.
I could see it. I swear the first 4 shots he took from the point this year all ended up in goals.
Now everytime he lobs one in, I start standing up in anticipation.
You should see someone for that, I hear they hae shots for it now….
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour
April 3, 2023 11:40 am
I’m a bit curious as to why Bourgault is consistently ranked ahead of Lavoie. Seems the latter has “flipped a switch” this year. Does that not figure into projections?
Lavoie is big, has a bit of nasty, is scoring – what’s not to like? Does draft pedigree really translate at this point?
JMO but I think it comes down to 1st rounders holding on to their value for at least the first season and a half of playing professionally before their futures start to be questioned.
Lavoie is an outlier given the amount of time it has taken him so his ability to maintain that level is still not totally settled.
That would be how I get to Lowetide’s assessment. It is a ‘reasonable expectations’ kind of evaluation I would think.
From watching, Bourgault’s rookie season > Lavoie’s rookie season.
Yeah, that makes sense. It seemed like Lavoie’s first two and a half AHL seasons were trending toward failure.
With his ELC coming to an end, it might be worth giving him a quick look to see what we’ve got. But I like to see guys play well in two different seasons before really believing my eyes. (Remember Robert Nilsson?)
There is no reasonable way to give him a “quick look”, right.
Both of Shore and Broberg would have to go down (or one of them and McLeod on LTIR).
The team has 5 games lefts and are gearing up for a playoff run – I’ve fairly confidant that is the sole focus of the players, the coaches and the GM. Of course, there is much to play for. Home ice vs. either Vegas or LA or even the ability to play a wild card team.
I don’t think they are interested getting a game look at prospect at this time of year.
Age, stage of development, previous performance… Light turned on only recent.
Chelios is a Dinosaur
April 3, 2023 11:35 am
Some wild Oiler derangement syndrome out there on the social media.
Evidently Leon and Carter Verhaeghe contribute evenly to their clubs.
Signals to me that people are threatened by this team. The old “one man team” tropes are growing old and people are reaching for straws. This is a wagon, watch out NHL.
Leon has the most goals in the NHL over the last 5 years. He’s the only active player with 3 50 goal + 50 assist seasons. He’s making a very strong case for 2nd best player in the game.
He’s the only active player with 3 50 goal + 50 assist seasons… in the past decade. Ovechkin’s 50+50 seasons were all in the aughts.
who
April 3, 2023 11:30 am
Others have already stated this, but it’s worth repeating. Vincent Desharnais has been the Oilers second best rookie.
Who knows who will be better next year, or even in this years playoffs, but right now Desharnais is playing more than Broberg, by a considerable margin. And he’s earned it.
Hollaway was fine, as a depth forward, but he hasn’t been a difference maker offensively.
I expect both Broberg and Hollaway to continue to improve, but I’m not sure Desharnais has reached his ceiling either. His skating looks fine at the NHL level, he’s shown some poise with the puck, and he continues to defend well.
I’m very curious to see how high up the depth chart this player can climb.
Yep, I definitely agree with you. Broberg may eventually be the best of the group, but there’s no way he’s second best rookie right now. Desharnais is a big, mean, athletic beast on the 3rd pair. And he plays with passion…something I think every team desperately needs and what every fan loves to see on their teams. I could see him taking Ceci’s spot as early as next year if he continues to learn and makes the right decisions with the puck.
Broberg should be on the 3rd pair by next season for all 82 games…but he still hasn’t even secured that spot this season. We need him there for cap reasons and for his proper development. If he can’t crack the roster full-time by the start of next season, then he starts to become a “maybe” instead of a “lock” for a top-pairing D-man.
He’s behind Desharnais at this point and its not even close. The age gap is a factor for sure, but right now the bigger man has 2nd best locked down.
In fact I think LT kinda hoped someone would comment 🙂
Washingtron
April 3, 2023 10:55 am
Two things!
first: very excited to be attending the game tomorrow night in LA (where I live). Row 5 between the benches, $200. Like, that would cost a low mileage RV and two jet skis in Edmonton!
second: I was pretty little, but I remember Esa Tikanen (sp👎) infuriating people too. Not sure if it was just cuz he shadowed so well or if he liked a little sh*t housery.
Haha, Tikkanen was special, I loved him. He was sneaky dirty, a handful in a scrum, and liked to chirp people in his own made‐up language(Tikkanese) that really got to people. He was a beaut.
Hey Me too! When I first signed on with LT Blog I was inspired by posters like Zdeno’s Cigar and wanted to put together some kinda loose homage to Mike Krushelnyski. Can’t remember what I came up with, but at the time autocorrect or spellcheck or whatever converted it on the spot into “Mushed Peas” and here we are. Was so far off base decided to go with it.
That reminds me of SCTV parody by Rick Moranis that was filmed at Hawrelak Park .I’m turning Japanese (popular song in its day)was a song by the Vapours. Moranis and the rest of the gang were hilarious they’re the funniest and most talented ensemble ever put together.
Friday nights, in it’s heyday circa 1982, but I think it was on Friday nights for at least 3 years. I remember watching it on Saturday nights when it was still based out of Toronto and production value was noticeably lower.
Not sure why they moved it to Edmonton, since the entire cast were from Ontario, I am guessing cost…
Big D-men take longer to develop
but when they do look-out. I’m by no means comparing Vinny to Chara Pronger parayko etc. Vinny’s 1st game when they showed him doing the solo lap to begin his career was a eye opener. I thought holy-shit this man can skate. I think Vinny’s here to stay and does bring enormous value cap hit wise as well as talent wise.
Yeah, I expect Campbell to be much better next season and I won’t be shocked if he gets into playoff games this year.
Skinner is very reliable and steady but is peak Skinner better than peak Campbell?
I don’t know because I didn’t watch him in Toronto and there wasn’t much ‘peak Campbell’ to see so far in Edmonton but the reputation says Campbell is very good when he is good and like a lot of other goalies around the league these days it seems like nobody knows when the switch is going to flip.
Lots of things go better and worse in long playoff runs.
Campbell has played much worse than expected this year so far and Skinner has played much better than most expected this year. Skinner is the steadier of the two by a wide margin but I believe Campbell’s reputation has him more in the Mike Smith lane – very good when good but less predictable.
I don’t think Woodcroft is afraid to take chances if he sees something he likes or doesn’t like.
It’s just crazy talk to give up on Campbell 3/4 of the way into a 5 year contract. Next year are even sooner Jack might shock the mob and return to form. New team, city, equipment and possibly new style could all be contributing factors on such a rough season. As bad as some people (drama queens) think he’s played he and Skinner are both sitting at 11 games over 500.
I have definitely not given up on Campbell overall. I have consistently posted about goalies often taking a year to settle in with new teams and being much better in the second year. I have posted that there is no chance he gets bought out and all but no chance he’s traded.
At the same time, given where we are this year, its absolutely correct to posit that, if Campbell is playing in the playoffs, things have gone wrong – he will only play if Skinner gets hurt or struggles in losses – something going wrong.
With that said, if something does go wrong and he’s starting games, I do think there is a legit possibility that he provides solid to good to great goaltending. He can do it, he’s done it before.
I’m not going to call anyone a drama queen, or any other derogatory name, but will say that I think its very odd to continue to dig in on “wins/loss record” for goalie as a proxy for performance. It seem very clear that Skinner has outperformed Campbell on the season despite similar win loss records.
No doubt Campbell has had a off year. At least a 1/3 of the Goals on him were pinballed off 3 people. I’ve never seen a Goalie with such bad bounce’s. I think he tried a new a style with new equipment. The man has major pedigree and everyone has seen him play well for stretches. I don’t get it, both Goalies are 11 games over 500 one is a Saviour the other is Dogshit on new shoes.
Prior to this season, I thought Skinner showed well enough for consideration for the starter job with Smith as his backup. When Smith went LTIR all season, I still wondered if all we needed was a decent backup to help relieve some pressure off of Skinner.
Holland did not want that gamble and instead brought it someone he thought had proven himself enough that warranted a 5 year commitment. I understand the rationale but so far his “lesser” gamble was the wrong call.
Thankfully we are still not paying an exorbitant amount for goalies which makes this miscalculation (so far) easier to take
Been a Skinner fan since day 1 just like I was a Dubnyk fan from day 1. That said, he’s been developed on a proper timeline with reasonable expectations. He was ready to be the backup last summer but no way a contender could have counted on him to be starter material right out of the can.
Aside from Campbell the options were meager last summer. Kuemper and Fluery were not signing in EDM and I would not have signed Husso @ 3 x $4.75 million. Samsonov was a good signing as a backup but Holland would have been crucified (justifiably) if he signed him to be our starter given his mediocre track record. Not thrilled about Campbell’s contract but I get it and we will see how year 2 goes. I’ll hold judgement until then and cheer like heck for Skinner to keep up his play and Campbell to rebound.
There were many vets on contract with one-year of term left that could have been acquired. Holland was asked about the trade market prior to free agency opening – he acknowledged it as an option but essentially brushed it off. I don’t think he explored it and was lazer focussed on the UFA for term.
I can understand his focus on getting someone with term. Last thing we needed was someone to come in, have one outlier red hot year and hold us hostage for bucks so big it complicated resigning Drai and McD down the line. IIRC didn’t Holland once caution about going whale shopping on goalies? Something about a large portion of the top 5 every year changing out and not necessarily consistnetly repeating? Remember the Net Detective (and others) as examples some had mentioned in discussion to illustrate this….
Last edited 1 year ago by Mayan Oil
Durag
April 3, 2023 9:46 am
Wow, I hadn’t ever given any thought to Yevseyev but that is impressive work he’s doing at 18 years old. KHL site gives pretty detailed stats, looks like he is the #7 in a 7 d-man setup, averaging about 10:30 a night and less in the playoffs, but playing every game.
His team is up 1-0 in the semi-finals against Avangard Omsk, who might as well be Avangard Oilers with Nail Yakupov, Vladmir Tkachev, Anton Belov and Ziyat Paigin in the lineup. Go AK Bars!
If I’m not mistaken, he was in the KHL on that obscure rule that they have that allows for extras 18 and 19 year olds on the roster (and in the lineup – dressing more than 18 skaters).
These players generally only play 2-4 minute per game (and often in garbage time) and Yeseyev started out like that but seemed to earn some real minutes fairly early in the year.
His season in the KHL as a teenager is a massive up arrow even if the stats will look very meh – in my opinion.
OriginalPouzar
April 3, 2023 9:30 am
2022 Draft Notes: The Oilers had only one pick of true value in 2022 and spent it on Reid Schaefer. You can criticize the team for identifying a need and then acting on that need, but at No. 32 overall that’s a pick with a chance to fill the role projected in the NHL someday. It’s clear the organization has made enormous progress over the last decade.
It’s notable that it seems that Reid Schaefer was a “must have” in the Ekholm trade so kudos to the scots (and Tyler Wright and the general manager) for identifying a player very late in the 1st round that carried extreme value one year later.
Second best rookie player: For me, this is Desharnais. He brings frustrates players to no end (remember Tavares?), and takes care of business. I don’t think he will be better then Broberg, but to me has clearly been more impactful this season. A player like him has been missing in our lineup for a long long time.
Usage over the last couple months suggests the coach agrees with you.
OriginalPouzar
April 3, 2023 9:02 am
Oh, Lavoie has done everything possible to earn an “NHL opportunity”.
No, he hasn’t proven ready, that can only be done during actual NHL regular season games (we’ve seen that exhibition games mean little as far as readiness for the NHL).
He should be penciled off the roster going in to camp but, like Holloway, could take someone’s job and then get an opportunity during the regular season.
If not, he’ll assuredly get an in-season call-up unless he regresses.
Yes, he’s waivers eligible, and that’s an important factor, but more famous names slide through waivers each and every October. He’ll be 23, on his second contract with zero NHL games – that player rarely gets claimed (but its a risk).
If you are Arizona and a young breakout AHL player hits the waiver wire, isn’t it a no-brainer to claim him? Or Chicago? There’s no shortage of terrible NHL teams that should claim Lavoie.
There are tons of “Raphael Lavoie’s” that slide through the waiver wire every October. Most teams have a player or two just like this and the terrible teams do as well.
Lets not forget, the Yotes or the other terrible team that claims that have to put him back on waivers in order to assign him.
As I said, its a risk but a “bigger risk” in my opinion, is going in to the NHL season counting on a 23 year old rookie with zero NHL games to be a lineup player, let alone in an impact role – if the team has Stanley Cup aspirations.
He’ll have every opportunity to “win a roster spot” for game 1 but we also know that he could score 8 goals in exhibition and still not be NHL ready – that story starts to get told once the actual games start, right?
Yup a 6.4 big player that has improved his skating overall in his AHL career and lit it up over the mid point of the year and showed he seems to have finally got over his inconstancy issues will get picked up for sure by a bottom feeder. Scouts will be watching him for sure and will have been since he started potting points consistently. NHL teams scout the AHL a lot looking for just this type of scenario. Especially the bottom feeders. My brother in laws buddy is a scout for Arizona and he scouts amateur but watches a lot of the Pacific Division of the AHL . Looking for these types of guys.
Stauffer mentioned keep an eye on Lavoie late last week. No clue what cryptic message this was , but could he be in LA tom night. Doubt it, but not sure on that little blurb out from him.
Do wish they would have brought up Lavoie for a few after Jesse departed and the RW was a bit depleted. But cap issues seemed to derail any thought of that happening.
I would hope he is pencilled in on the big club next year and if not traded in a package this summer . If not he won’t be like a Benning ( who was never claimed because of his boots and was not 6.4 with a rocket shot) , because he will get claimed .
Completely agree – posting crooked numbers in the AHL suggests which players might be able to play a regular shift in the AHL … but there is no guarantee that prowess will translate to the NHL. He’s earned a shot … next season. Lavoie is not a bottom 6 checker and he’s not going to be playing top 6 minutes for a playoff-bound contender.
Potential NHL rookies on the Oilers next season is a subject of the blog and Lavoie is, of course, in consideration, and I posted my thoughts on the player and how I think Holland should (and will) proceed with the player.’
It seems to have advanced a solid conversation on the subject and some interesting discussion.
I do believe the only waiver claims off of the Oilers since 2011 is Taylor Chorney and Anton Forsberg in 2021. Forsberg was claimed because of a league wide goalie shortage. Normally I would say B grade prospects like Samorukov, Benson slide through waivers all day. Most teams have 4 of these guys in their system at all times and fans tend to over value their prospects. Lavoie to me has graduated to a A- prospect and due to his size and skill I would not chance him on waivers next fall. He seems to be manhandling guys in the AHL right now which is unique. If the Oilers were not cap strapped and gearing up for a Stanley cup run Lavoie would be playing in the NHL.
OriginalPouzar
April 3, 2023 8:59 am
If the Oilers only bring one of Bjugstad and Ryan back (which is a real possibility due to cap structuring and the potential raise that Bjugstad may “want”), then Noah Philp has a real chance at real NHL games next year.
He’s got the size, battle and 2-way maturity to his game. Will he be able to “score enough” at the NHL? We don’t know but he’s pushing 20 goals as a rookie (older rookie albeit) after a slow slow start.
They can’t pencil him on to the roster going in to camp – he’ll need to take someone’s job at camp or wait for an assured injury call-up but I think he can play.
Don’t get me wrong, I want Bjugstad and Ryan both back on this team but the cap is a real thing and, if Bjugstad is looking for $1.75MM to $2MM, while he may be “worth it”, the Oilers may not be able to afford it.
Why is it Bjugstad vs Ryan? Won’t Ryan be a league minimum? I guess if Ryan is looking for the same salary as this year, then maybe its one vs the other…
I did say I would like to bring them both back but I’m just not sure its feasible cap wise.
As of right now, the Oilers will have apx $8MM of cap space with a 15 player commitment. We are looking at 8 players (ideally) but even 7 players for a short roster. That includes the likes of Bouchard and McLeod. Shit, Bouch could eat up half of that (more if they can figure out long term).
Yes, cap will be moved out but Yamamoto or Foegele out need to be replaced in the top 6/middle 6 – Kulak likely goes but that weakens the depth.
Maybe Ryan is OK with league min or maybe he is looking for $850K or $1MM or back to $1.25MM.
Maybe Bjugstad is OK with $1.25MM but maybe he wants $2MM.
Ryan is a depth player at this point and if they just bring back Bjugstad and Philp isn’t ready they know they can bring in a depth RSC for the bottom six in-season fairly cheap – in addition to Philp likely being ready at some point during the season.
Bjugstad will have apx 15 goals and going in to UFA. If he has a decent playoffs, I don’t think a doubling of his current full cap hit is out of the question.
I hope he’s willing to sign for $1.25MM – not sure he does that, in particular without going to market first.
Maybe he loves his 3 months in Edmonton – he does seem genuinely happy to be here, but he’s only got a few “prime earning seasons” left so we’ll see.
Had to laugh a few months back at Kane telling a microphone that ‘top end’ players ‘get it the worst’ thanks to to the salary cap. Maybe in an absolute dollars scenario but the biggest pieces of the pie are getting bigger.
I like Ryan, but at his age I only resign him at league minimum. If he wants more than that then I think he is still good enough to sign for a higher amount somewhere else. We don’t need veteran leadership as much as we need to give an opportunity to a young player who earns a spot in the big league.
And like you say, cap hit is a big factor too
Ryan shouldn’t really be getting much more than league minimum. Yes, he been useful but in a salary capped and constrained league, your fourth liners are vets at the $1m level or less or young players breaking in at the same price point.
I would think Bjugstad would have a big advantage over Ryan considering Ryan’s age. Bjugstad does everything that Ryan does, is younger and much larger. It comes down to what the price to extend him is. I don’t think they completely know what they have in Bjugstad. But they will. We’ll see what Noah Philp is about next year. They will need to re-sign him too.
I don’t see Bjugstad commanding a large raise, He is on a league minimum contract right now and his last team retaining HALF of that to boot. 1-1.2m ought to do it and be good value at that price over 2 years.
Vegas playing some desperate hockey – desperate to not see the Oilers in round one 🙂
I don’t think we catch them in the time remaining but I’m not worried about starting a 2nd round series in Vegas. But we would be well advised to have home ice against LA – and I would really really like have home ice in a potential 3rd round matchup against the central division champs. We control our destiny on both those counts. Beat LA tomorrow – take care of business in ANA and SJS – then the last important game could be Colorado next week. Hopefully the final game against SJS at home next week is meaningless and we can rest anyone who has a few bumps or bruises.
home ice? what a concept
I am not sure why anyone thinks a spot will be held open for any rookies next year. With where we are at I fully expect Holland to keep his bottom 6 cheap and interchangeable. Much like this year with Ryan, Janmark, Kostin and McLeod. Rookies will need to show better than who they will replace. Right now the bar is set at Shore for replacement level. IMO there are several rookies who could top that next year but will they.
Some of this will come down to how many players are on the roster. A full 23-man unit gives more room. Edmonton has several men who will be waiver eligible next season for the first time, that includes Vincent Desharnais, Raphael Lavoie, Markus Niemelainen and Phil Kemp. One would think Desharnais makes it, after that we’ll see. Seems unlikely the Oilers would lose Niemelainen on waivers, but stranger things have happened.
If McDavid wore Gretzky’s should pads, would he lift off and get tangled in the netting above the end boards?
I’d like to see McDavid do a 100M race against Tyson Fury, Messi, Lebron, Brady, and Ohtani.
VGK scores with an empty net to make it 3-3 against the Wild.
Huge implications for both WC divisions.
Going to OT.
VGK wins 4-3 in the shootout.
Even when not playing us Minny manages to screw us over.
So the most updated player cards seem to have Bouchard at $9.5M rather than $8.0M. He’s $8.7M surplus value.
Oilers D are absurd currently:
Ekholm $11.4M
Bouch $9.5M
Nurse $9.4M
Kulak $5.3M
Broberg $5.1M
Ceci $3.6M
So according to Dom, that’s 6 value deals out of 6 on the Oilers D, lol. That’s not even including Desharnais among the 6.
Definitely a ‘FWIW’ list, but that is pretty fun.
Link for those with subscription or considering getting one.
https://theathletic.com/3989345/2023/01/30/nhl-player-cards-edmonton-oilers-2/
Seems to be a ghost in the machine.
When I first looked, it had Bouchard at $8 million, you saw $9.5 million and now it reads $7.4 million,
Yeah I don’t know. I’m still seeing the numbers I posted after refreshing the page.
Maybe someone else can check to see if something mythical is going on.
Now I’m also seeing $9.5 million.
Seems excessive.
Good Lord man.
Brett kulak is valued at 5.3 million…that system needs a massive revamp.
Tyson Barrie still worth $8.2M according to Dom as well (he was in that range most of the year IIRC).
Dom mentioned on twitter the totals were wrong for several players, suspect they are tweaking now.
dom https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4c8.svg
@domluszczyszyn·7h
“final update” of the season and i botched the values for the lower and middle class for the league leading to some exorbitant market values
whoops https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1fae1.svg
might have to make next week the final update to undo this fuckup lol
sorry everyone https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f497.svg
I followed rabbit a bit on dom’s explanation of model. Might be wrong but it kinda sounds like “usage adjustment” 5×5 (some form of QOT/QOC) might be magic knob a bit in model thus likely where recent miscalcs originate from.
Yeah I obviously have no idea the specifics, but I wouldn’t think Dom would be turning knobs to change the model in-season. Most likely the glitch, whatever it is, has a much more mundane origin than that.
So that Nurse contract is basically not quite full price.
Getting paid what he is worth, long term after years of being a good soldier and taking one for the team.
Kinda lines up with what a lot of folks have been saying since the deal got signed.
Dom has updated his player cards and has Bouchard at $8 million market value.
I wonder if Dave Gagner has an Atketuc subscription,
What’s the connection?
Gagner is his agent.
OK, now your posting it makes sense.
I wouldn’t worry DSF, elite defensemen show themselves early.
It’s already late for Bouchard.
I haven’t looked through all the cards but quite a few.
I’ve only seen two that are league maximum.
Connor McDavid and Cale Makar.
Is that Bouchard guy any good?
some say he might be as good as Brogan Rafferty one day…
His player valuation doesn’t really do much for me. The above market valuation of combined oiler players far exceeds cap in a way that it really seems like it should be globtrotteresque vs wizards on a nightly basis if it was close to representative.
Just saw the clip of Mason Shaw hitting the boards and tearing his ACL. Don’t wish such a horrible injury on anyone.
Man, as someone who competed at a decent level for ski halfpipe/big air/slopestyle, that is the worst thing to witness. Season is shot immediately.
Farmboys are tough he’ll be back.
Clouder on the trip but he says he’s likely a good week or so away. No surprise here as Holland recently updated that they are hoping for the last couple games of the regular season.
Now I know Stauff said overtly “not a concussion” but, damn does it sure sound like it when listening to the player and stuff. No real pain, no real rehab, just making sure its right and doesn’t get worse, etc.
Will be real nice to have him back, when ready.
Who’s Clouder?
That looks an awful lot like trolling, Reja. Surely you can figure this one out on your own…
honestly had to think it. Mainly cause for me it doesn’t look like it sounds at first glance.
I honestly blanked out on the nickname reference. After I posted in I realized that There can can only be one McLeod…,, When I try to cancel a post nothing happens I even try X each letter out but it then says message is to short to cancel. Does this happen to anyone else I’m on a I-phone? There’s been a handful of messages I’ve tried to extinguish to no avail.
Clouded…good grief.
I’m a Moron. I was going to make a joke about it but the thought police would have zapped my collar
I’m sticking with highlander
Doubt it’s a concussion. Gregor was saying on his show last week that it was a really strange injury and he’s not aware of other hockey players having it before. Said he was going to ask McLeod for permission to say what it was on his show. I’m assuming he never got the go ahead as I haven’t hear Gregor mention it any further.
I think it was on Gregor when I heard him mentioning something about McLeod spitting up blood.
Seeing the Detroit model for development is live is incredible.
Two years ago people were very vocal about Bouchard’s playing time negatively effecting his development. And it was brought up last year as a reason for Bouchard’s wobble. Looking at his up and down play this year it looks like they made the right call and didn’t overload him early on.
Broberg is now in that same process. He has played a lot of games this year, I’m sure he is watching the game from the press ring completely differently to before his 60+ games in the NHL. People can point to his results and say play him more but maybe his results are because of how much he is playing.
Holloway’s injury was very unfortunate but I like how they weren’t scared to send him back to the A after 50 games. He only played 33 down in the A last year. Same with Broberg I’m sure the game looks completely different after a long stint in the show.
Lavoie could potentially be one of these forgotten 22-23 year old Holland prospects that fills a role nobody was expecting. Maybe Tullio or Savoie will be in this position in the next couple years.
Bourgault is getting the Holloway treatment. Potentially he also earns a chunk of NHL games next year and then finishes it out I’m the A.
Holland doesn’t seem to do the cup of coffee thing. He calls a guy up for a good chunk of games then backs off the pressure and then give them time.
Of course this is only possible because the team has been good. It’s easy to put prospects in a position to succeed we aren’t relying on them to win games.
Holland had no cap in Detroit that’s why there’s so many young players on ELC in the league right now. If your going to win a Cup in the cap world you need cheap labour.
I hear you but will add that I don’t think the Bourg has done enough yet to earn a cup and that this year’s roster ws so tight with cap and waiver concerns there was no room for Hey let’s give this kid a game.
Definitely agree. The two guys that have played well enough to earn the cup would be Lavoie and Philp.
Tulio and Bourgault have had OK rookie seasons (Tulio very good relative to early season expectations) but both have a ways to go.
In my opinion.
FWIW, I think Holland will leave one roster spot open for Lavoie/Philp next fall (or another young guy who might step up).
And by ‘open’ I mean needing to beat out guys like this years Benson, Malone, McKegg, Bailey, Griffith.
Preferable the Oilers have young value deals on the roster, if only for deadline trades. I think Lavoie more likely than Philp, but agree it’ll be a pre-season head-to-head.
Yeah I mostly meant Lavoie. I think Holland will earmark a roster spot for him as he did for Benson.
Lavoie’s training camp will need to be strong to hold it (we saw Broberg failing to make the team despite Holland saying he’d need to lose the spot this fall). I think Benson’s situation is the best comparable though, with Lavoie also being waiver eligible.
Hi might but “leaving a spot open” for an unproven player (in this case, with zero NHL games) is a risk for a team looking to compete for Stanley. That was kind of the MO of some of the dark years, counting on prospects to fill NHL spots before they showed they are ready.
Holland’s MO is to have the roster filled and force the kids to take someone’s job.
Of course, filling the roster spot without the kid costs money but we are talking about a Kostin or Janmark type player to beat out.
Lavoie’s trade value at the deadline may mean a deal can be made. The Oilers don’t have a pile of prospects with plus value. I don’t think dropping Devin Shore and elevating Lavoie is a move that tips the balance of the roster in a negative way, but if it does, it’s minimal. Your mileage may vary.
Prospects were expected to fill important roles in the dark years. End of roster is different. And you need to incorporate youngsters into the lineup at some point.
We agree on taking someone’s job and not being gifted a spot. I think the quality of veteran that needs to be in the way is where we’re differing.
I don’t think having Kostin and Janmark quality players down to 14 or 15 forwards (at least entertaining camp) is reasonable. We will see I guess.
Chaulk mentioned today they hope to have Lavoie back for the game on Wed.
Bourgault?
Sorry, yes, Bourgault – sigh, too much life going on all at once.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
17m
Jay Woodcroft says it’s a good sign that Ryan Murray is skating with the team again and he’ll join the Oilers on the road trip. However, Woodcroft noted that Murray’s return to the lineup isn’t imminent.
Tom Gazzola had some interesting tidbits about Murray on the Oil Stream podcast.
I’m paraphrasing, but he said Murray was the kind of guy to be showered, changed and on his way home while other players are still working on stuff in practice. Said he asked an Oilers exec about Murray who just rolled his eyes and shook his head.
It doesn’t sound like Murray is very well regarded and is probably around #10 on the depth chart if everyone’s healthy.
I wonder if this stuff was present while he was on colorado? And if so, why would we sign him?
Maybe he sees that he probably can’t get back to the show and isn’t that motivated.
He’s the new Corey Perry… guarantee Stanley cup final. 😜
Monday Fun Fact #2: After the Ottawa Philadelphia game last week in which Philly only had 11 shots (but managed 4 goals in a 5-4 loss), I dug into the record for fewest shots in a game. In October 1958, the Rangers had ZERO shots in a game against Detroit. Detroit had 31 shots and won 3-0.
No other team has had less than 7 shots in a game.
Despite the win that night, Detroit finished last in the league that year, one place behind the Rangers.
Bruce McCurdy could give more info on that game as he was in attendance, taking time off from his studies for his PhD in Astro-Physics. 🙂
Detroit’s barn.Typical NHL stat keeping.*
* srsly. 0 shots? how
Monday Fun Fact: The top 3 searched names on the Elite Prospects site this week were Bedard and Connor McDavid (no surprise there) and Cameron McDavid (after his interview with the great Gene Principe). Cameron played a couple seasons for Newmarket in the OJHL. If I recall correctly, I thought that the interview was on a regional broadcast only so I didn’t think that many people would have seen it.
VD is going to lob a seeing-eye wrister through 6 dudes and a goalie in double OT at some point in the next two months.
I could see it. I swear the first 4 shots he took from the point this year all ended up in goals.
Now everytime he lobs one in, I start standing up in anticipation.
“VD” will catch fire!
You should see someone for that, I hear they hae shots for it now….
I’m a bit curious as to why Bourgault is consistently ranked ahead of Lavoie. Seems the latter has “flipped a switch” this year. Does that not figure into projections?
Lavoie is big, has a bit of nasty, is scoring – what’s not to like? Does draft pedigree really translate at this point?
As I said just curious.
JMO but I think it comes down to 1st rounders holding on to their value for at least the first season and a half of playing professionally before their futures start to be questioned.
Lavoie is an outlier given the amount of time it has taken him so his ability to maintain that level is still not totally settled.
That would be how I get to Lowetide’s assessment. It is a ‘reasonable expectations’ kind of evaluation I would think.
Thanks!
I think its fairly clear that Lavoie is closer to NHL ready but Bourgault could have the higher ceiling/impact.
Bourgault is in his 20 year old rookie pro season and Lavoie if in his 3rd year pro on an expiring ELC.
From watching, Bourgault’s rookie season > Lavoie’s rookie season.
From watching, Bourgault’s rookie season > Lavoie’s rookie season.
Yeah, that makes sense. It seemed like Lavoie’s first two and a half AHL seasons were trending toward failure.
With his ELC coming to an end, it might be worth giving him a quick look to see what we’ve got. But I like to see guys play well in two different seasons before really believing my eyes. (Remember Robert Nilsson?)
There is no reasonable way to give him a “quick look”, right.
Both of Shore and Broberg would have to go down (or one of them and McLeod on LTIR).
The team has 5 games lefts and are gearing up for a playoff run – I’ve fairly confidant that is the sole focus of the players, the coaches and the GM. Of course, there is much to play for. Home ice vs. either Vegas or LA or even the ability to play a wild card team.
I don’t think they are interested getting a game look at prospect at this time of year.
Age, stage of development, previous performance… Light turned on only recent.
Some wild Oiler derangement syndrome out there on the social media.
Evidently Leon and Carter Verhaeghe contribute evenly to their clubs.
Signals to me that people are threatened by this team. The old “one man team” tropes are growing old and people are reaching for straws. This is a wagon, watch out NHL.
Leon has the most goals in the NHL over the last 5 years. He’s the only active player with 3 50 goal + 50 assist seasons. He’s making a very strong case for 2nd best player in the game.
e: whoops Ovechkin also has 3 50+50 seasons
He’s the only active player with 3 50 goal + 50 assist seasons… in the past decade. Ovechkin’s 50+50 seasons were all in the aughts.
Others have already stated this, but it’s worth repeating. Vincent Desharnais has been the Oilers second best rookie.
Who knows who will be better next year, or even in this years playoffs, but right now Desharnais is playing more than Broberg, by a considerable margin. And he’s earned it.
Hollaway was fine, as a depth forward, but he hasn’t been a difference maker offensively.
I expect both Broberg and Hollaway to continue to improve, but I’m not sure Desharnais has reached his ceiling either. His skating looks fine at the NHL level, he’s shown some poise with the puck, and he continues to defend well.
I’m very curious to see how high up the depth chart this player can climb.
Plus I love the edge he brings. Not a bad thing for the team to be harder to play against.
Yep, I definitely agree with you. Broberg may eventually be the best of the group, but there’s no way he’s second best rookie right now. Desharnais is a big, mean, athletic beast on the 3rd pair. And he plays with passion…something I think every team desperately needs and what every fan loves to see on their teams. I could see him taking Ceci’s spot as early as next year if he continues to learn and makes the right decisions with the puck.
Broberg should be on the 3rd pair by next season for all 82 games…but he still hasn’t even secured that spot this season. We need him there for cap reasons and for his proper development. If he can’t crack the roster full-time by the start of next season, then he starts to become a “maybe” instead of a “lock” for a top-pairing D-man.
He’s behind Desharnais at this point and its not even close. The age gap is a factor for sure, but right now the bigger man has 2nd best locked down.
Agree. Certainly the second most impactful
In fact I think LT kinda hoped someone would comment 🙂
Two things!
first: very excited to be attending the game tomorrow night in LA (where I live). Row 5 between the benches, $200. Like, that would cost a low mileage RV and two jet skis in Edmonton!
second: I was pretty little, but I remember Esa Tikanen (sp👎) infuriating people too. Not sure if it was just cuz he shadowed so well or if he liked a little sh*t housery.
Haha, Tikkanen was special, I loved him. He was sneaky dirty, a handful in a scrum, and liked to chirp people in his own made‐up language(Tikkanese) that really got to people. He was a beaut.
Ha! That is why my prior moniker on this site was Turning Tikkanese!
Ha, I love the usernames from old Oilers. Ladieslovesmid, Zdeno’s Cigar, Don’t Bishai, Zelepukin, Comrade Horcov, Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville….
Hey Me too! When I first signed on with LT Blog I was inspired by posters like Zdeno’s Cigar and wanted to put together some kinda loose homage to Mike Krushelnyski. Can’t remember what I came up with, but at the time autocorrect or spellcheck or whatever converted it on the spot into “Mushed Peas” and here we are. Was so far off base decided to go with it.
I still remember exhibition season one year where Davide Pope and Miro Satan were on the same line. Not the balance we expected… ? Made me snicker.
That reminds me of SCTV parody by Rick Moranis that was filmed at Hawrelak Park .I’m turning Japanese (popular song in its day)was a song by the Vapours. Moranis and the rest of the gang were hilarious they’re the funniest and most talented ensemble ever put together.
Every weeknight (or Saturday?) on ITV! Oh the days.
The good old days when men are men and sheep were nervous.
Friday nights, in it’s heyday circa 1982, but I think it was on Friday nights for at least 3 years. I remember watching it on Saturday nights when it was still based out of Toronto and production value was noticeably lower.
Not sure why they moved it to Edmonton, since the entire cast were from Ontario, I am guessing cost…
Tik among my all time favorites and even when he’s overrated he’s underrated. Vive la Finlande!
While I think Broberg will be a good player for a long time, Cousin Vinny is the second best rookie currently.
Vinny followed the Borgan Raggidy time line and simply perfected it.
Thank you Broman Rambelly for your trail blazing journey.
Big D-men take longer to develop
but when they do look-out. I’m by no means comparing Vinny to Chara Pronger parayko etc. Vinny’s 1st game when they showed him doing the solo lap to begin his career was a eye opener. I thought holy-shit this man can skate. I think Vinny’s here to stay and does bring enormous value cap hit wise as well as talent wise.
A guy with competent skill that big and mean always has an NHL job while the rest is adequate enough
— Last year it behooved the Oilers to see what they had with Skinner.
— Might have saved them from more term and dollars for Campbell…
— This is an interesting week. Oiler in SoCal for 7-8 nights with a few two nights off.
— i don’t know how many know this but its is a nice place to be for a week. Test to see that they show up for every game with no sun burns.
The oilers made it to conference last year.
Im at peace with what transpired. I was hoping for maybe a 3 year contract type goalie.
Yeah, I expect Campbell to be much better next season and I won’t be shocked if he gets into playoff games this year.
Skinner is very reliable and steady but is peak Skinner better than peak Campbell?
I don’t know because I didn’t watch him in Toronto and there wasn’t much ‘peak Campbell’ to see so far in Edmonton but the reputation says Campbell is very good when he is good and like a lot of other goalies around the league these days it seems like nobody knows when the switch is going to flip.
If campbell gets games in the playoffs it means something has gone wrong and we are in trouble.
Lots of things go better and worse in long playoff runs.
Campbell has played much worse than expected this year so far and Skinner has played much better than most expected this year. Skinner is the steadier of the two by a wide margin but I believe Campbell’s reputation has him more in the Mike Smith lane – very good when good but less predictable.
I don’t think Woodcroft is afraid to take chances if he sees something he likes or doesn’t like.
It’s just crazy talk to give up on Campbell 3/4 of the way into a 5 year contract. Next year are even sooner Jack might shock the mob and return to form. New team, city, equipment and possibly new style could all be contributing factors on such a rough season. As bad as some people (drama queens) think he’s played he and Skinner are both sitting at 11 games over 500.
I have definitely not given up on Campbell overall. I have consistently posted about goalies often taking a year to settle in with new teams and being much better in the second year. I have posted that there is no chance he gets bought out and all but no chance he’s traded.
At the same time, given where we are this year, its absolutely correct to posit that, if Campbell is playing in the playoffs, things have gone wrong – he will only play if Skinner gets hurt or struggles in losses – something going wrong.
With that said, if something does go wrong and he’s starting games, I do think there is a legit possibility that he provides solid to good to great goaltending. He can do it, he’s done it before.
I’m not going to call anyone a drama queen, or any other derogatory name, but will say that I think its very odd to continue to dig in on “wins/loss record” for goalie as a proxy for performance. It seem very clear that Skinner has outperformed Campbell on the season despite similar win loss records.
No doubt Campbell has had a off year. At least a 1/3 of the Goals on him were pinballed off 3 people. I’ve never seen a Goalie with such bad bounce’s. I think he tried a new a style with new equipment. The man has major pedigree and everyone has seen him play well for stretches. I don’t get it, both Goalies are 11 games over 500 one is a Saviour the other is Dogshit on new shoes.
He stuck with smith through wild swings last playoffs, so i am not sure i have seen evidence of woody taking risks with goalies in playoffs.
I think campbells comeback run must wait till next year.
Is there an echo in here, or is it just me?
I apologize I don’t know what happened.
Prior to this season, I thought Skinner showed well enough for consideration for the starter job with Smith as his backup. When Smith went LTIR all season, I still wondered if all we needed was a decent backup to help relieve some pressure off of Skinner.
Holland did not want that gamble and instead brought it someone he thought had proven himself enough that warranted a 5 year commitment. I understand the rationale but so far his “lesser” gamble was the wrong call.
Thankfully we are still not paying an exorbitant amount for goalies which makes this miscalculation (so far) easier to take
I had that thought. Here we are.
Been a Skinner fan since day 1 just like I was a Dubnyk fan from day 1. That said, he’s been developed on a proper timeline with reasonable expectations. He was ready to be the backup last summer but no way a contender could have counted on him to be starter material right out of the can.
Aside from Campbell the options were meager last summer. Kuemper and Fluery were not signing in EDM and I would not have signed Husso @ 3 x $4.75 million. Samsonov was a good signing as a backup but Holland would have been crucified (justifiably) if he signed him to be our starter given his mediocre track record. Not thrilled about Campbell’s contract but I get it and we will see how year 2 goes. I’ll hold judgement until then and cheer like heck for Skinner to keep up his play and Campbell to rebound.
There were many vets on contract with one-year of term left that could have been acquired. Holland was asked about the trade market prior to free agency opening – he acknowledged it as an option but essentially brushed it off. I don’t think he explored it and was lazer focussed on the UFA for term.
Bang on post.
I can understand his focus on getting someone with term. Last thing we needed was someone to come in, have one outlier red hot year and hold us hostage for bucks so big it complicated resigning Drai and McD down the line. IIRC didn’t Holland once caution about going whale shopping on goalies? Something about a large portion of the top 5 every year changing out and not necessarily consistnetly repeating? Remember the Net Detective (and others) as examples some had mentioned in discussion to illustrate this….
Wow, I hadn’t ever given any thought to Yevseyev but that is impressive work he’s doing at 18 years old. KHL site gives pretty detailed stats, looks like he is the #7 in a 7 d-man setup, averaging about 10:30 a night and less in the playoffs, but playing every game.
His team is up 1-0 in the semi-finals against Avangard Omsk, who might as well be Avangard Oilers with Nail Yakupov, Vladmir Tkachev, Anton Belov and Ziyat Paigin in the lineup. Go AK Bars!
If I’m not mistaken, he was in the KHL on that obscure rule that they have that allows for extras 18 and 19 year olds on the roster (and in the lineup – dressing more than 18 skaters).
These players generally only play 2-4 minute per game (and often in garbage time) and Yeseyev started out like that but seemed to earn some real minutes fairly early in the year.
His season in the KHL as a teenager is a massive up arrow even if the stats will look very meh – in my opinion.
It’s notable that it seems that Reid Schaefer was a “must have” in the Ekholm trade so kudos to the scots (and Tyler Wright and the general manager) for identifying a player very late in the 1st round that carried extreme value one year later.
I’ve always given kudos to the scots. 😉
McLeod, MacDavid, Murray, formerly Barrie…
Oilers Playoff Death March:
Rules:
1 – how many games do the Oilers win during these playoffs?
tie break
2 – how many points do Leon+Connor score combined?
tie break
3 – How many goals does Evander Kane score?
Hunter1909 plays Playoff “deathmarch”
1 – 16
2 – 57
3 – 12
But how old is Vincent Desharnais?
Old enough as to not make as many rookie mistakes.
43 to be precise
Just a few years younger than Dad Bouch
Second best rookie player: For me, this is Desharnais. He brings frustrates players to no end (remember Tavares?), and takes care of business. I don’t think he will be better then Broberg, but to me has clearly been more impactful this season. A player like him has been missing in our lineup for a long long time.
Usage over the last couple months suggests the coach agrees with you.
Oh, Lavoie has done everything possible to earn an “NHL opportunity”.
No, he hasn’t proven ready, that can only be done during actual NHL regular season games (we’ve seen that exhibition games mean little as far as readiness for the NHL).
He should be penciled off the roster going in to camp but, like Holloway, could take someone’s job and then get an opportunity during the regular season.
If not, he’ll assuredly get an in-season call-up unless he regresses.
Yes, he’s waivers eligible, and that’s an important factor, but more famous names slide through waivers each and every October. He’ll be 23, on his second contract with zero NHL games – that player rarely gets claimed (but its a risk).
If you are Arizona and a young breakout AHL player hits the waiver wire, isn’t it a no-brainer to claim him? Or Chicago? There’s no shortage of terrible NHL teams that should claim Lavoie.
There are tons of “Raphael Lavoie’s” that slide through the waiver wire every October. Most teams have a player or two just like this and the terrible teams do as well.
Lets not forget, the Yotes or the other terrible team that claims that have to put him back on waivers in order to assign him.
As I said, its a risk but a “bigger risk” in my opinion, is going in to the NHL season counting on a 23 year old rookie with zero NHL games to be a lineup player, let alone in an impact role – if the team has Stanley Cup aspirations.
He’ll have every opportunity to “win a roster spot” for game 1 but we also know that he could score 8 goals in exhibition and still not be NHL ready – that story starts to get told once the actual games start, right?
Yup a 6.4 big player that has improved his skating overall in his AHL career and lit it up over the mid point of the year and showed he seems to have finally got over his inconstancy issues will get picked up for sure by a bottom feeder. Scouts will be watching him for sure and will have been since he started potting points consistently. NHL teams scout the AHL a lot looking for just this type of scenario. Especially the bottom feeders. My brother in laws buddy is a scout for Arizona and he scouts amateur but watches a lot of the Pacific Division of the AHL . Looking for these types of guys.
Stauffer mentioned keep an eye on Lavoie late last week. No clue what cryptic message this was , but could he be in LA tom night. Doubt it, but not sure on that little blurb out from him.
Do wish they would have brought up Lavoie for a few after Jesse departed and the RW was a bit depleted. But cap issues seemed to derail any thought of that happening.
I would hope he is pencilled in on the big club next year and if not traded in a package this summer . If not he won’t be like a Benning ( who was never claimed because of his boots and was not 6.4 with a rocket shot) , because he will get claimed .
Completely agree – posting crooked numbers in the AHL suggests which players might be able to play a regular shift in the AHL … but there is no guarantee that prowess will translate to the NHL. He’s earned a shot … next season. Lavoie is not a bottom 6 checker and he’s not going to be playing top 6 minutes for a playoff-bound contender.
Not sure where I said Lavoie had an NHL job, but you do you.
No kidding
I never posted that you did……
Potential NHL rookies on the Oilers next season is a subject of the blog and Lavoie is, of course, in consideration, and I posted my thoughts on the player and how I think Holland should (and will) proceed with the player.’
It seems to have advanced a solid conversation on the subject and some interesting discussion.
I do believe the only waiver claims off of the Oilers since 2011 is Taylor Chorney and Anton Forsberg in 2021. Forsberg was claimed because of a league wide goalie shortage. Normally I would say B grade prospects like Samorukov, Benson slide through waivers all day. Most teams have 4 of these guys in their system at all times and fans tend to over value their prospects. Lavoie to me has graduated to a A- prospect and due to his size and skill I would not chance him on waivers next fall. He seems to be manhandling guys in the AHL right now which is unique. If the Oilers were not cap strapped and gearing up for a Stanley cup run Lavoie would be playing in the NHL.
If the Oilers only bring one of Bjugstad and Ryan back (which is a real possibility due to cap structuring and the potential raise that Bjugstad may “want”), then Noah Philp has a real chance at real NHL games next year.
He’s got the size, battle and 2-way maturity to his game. Will he be able to “score enough” at the NHL? We don’t know but he’s pushing 20 goals as a rookie (older rookie albeit) after a slow slow start.
They can’t pencil him on to the roster going in to camp – he’ll need to take someone’s job at camp or wait for an assured injury call-up but I think he can play.
Don’t get me wrong, I want Bjugstad and Ryan both back on this team but the cap is a real thing and, if Bjugstad is looking for $1.75MM to $2MM, while he may be “worth it”, the Oilers may not be able to afford it.
Why is it Bjugstad vs Ryan? Won’t Ryan be a league minimum? I guess if Ryan is looking for the same salary as this year, then maybe its one vs the other…
I did say I would like to bring them both back but I’m just not sure its feasible cap wise.
As of right now, the Oilers will have apx $8MM of cap space with a 15 player commitment. We are looking at 8 players (ideally) but even 7 players for a short roster. That includes the likes of Bouchard and McLeod. Shit, Bouch could eat up half of that (more if they can figure out long term).
Yes, cap will be moved out but Yamamoto or Foegele out need to be replaced in the top 6/middle 6 – Kulak likely goes but that weakens the depth.
Maybe Ryan is OK with league min or maybe he is looking for $850K or $1MM or back to $1.25MM.
Maybe Bjugstad is OK with $1.25MM but maybe he wants $2MM.
Ryan is a depth player at this point and if they just bring back Bjugstad and Philp isn’t ready they know they can bring in a depth RSC for the bottom six in-season fairly cheap – in addition to Philp likely being ready at some point during the season.
Bjugstad’s last two contracts were $900k. If he’s demanding $2M after scoring ~30 points he’s going to be sitting by the phone a long time.
20 goals has gotten RFAs $3MM in recent seasons.
Bjugstad will have apx 15 goals and going in to UFA. If he has a decent playoffs, I don’t think a doubling of his current full cap hit is out of the question.
I hope he’s willing to sign for $1.25MM – not sure he does that, in particular without going to market first.
Maybe he loves his 3 months in Edmonton – he does seem genuinely happy to be here, but he’s only got a few “prime earning seasons” left so we’ll see.
I agree, but cap economics continue to squeeze.
Had to laugh a few months back at Kane telling a microphone that ‘top end’ players ‘get it the worst’ thanks to to the salary cap. Maybe in an absolute dollars scenario but the biggest pieces of the pie are getting bigger.
I like Ryan, but at his age I only resign him at league minimum. If he wants more than that then I think he is still good enough to sign for a higher amount somewhere else. We don’t need veteran leadership as much as we need to give an opportunity to a young player who earns a spot in the big league.
And like you say, cap hit is a big factor too
Ryan shouldn’t really be getting much more than league minimum. Yes, he been useful but in a salary capped and constrained league, your fourth liners are vets at the $1m level or less or young players breaking in at the same price point.
I would think Bjugstad would have a big advantage over Ryan considering Ryan’s age. Bjugstad does everything that Ryan does, is younger and much larger. It comes down to what the price to extend him is. I don’t think they completely know what they have in Bjugstad. But they will. We’ll see what Noah Philp is about next year. They will need to re-sign him too.
Yup, they’ll need to re-sign Philp but he’ll be qualified at league min and I imagine Philp accepts.
I don’t see Bjugstad commanding a large raise, He is on a league minimum contract right now and his last team retaining HALF of that to boot. 1-1.2m ought to do it and be good value at that price over 2 years.
Could be – I think that’s a bit unlikely and he may be looking for more as we takes advantage of his “prime earning years” with a bounce-back season.
Pedantic Point: He’s apx $150K over league min.