Last spring, I wrote an article entitled “In defence of Colin Chaulk” (it is here) and received some quick reaction on X to the article. Chaulk has been highly criticized by Oilers fans for his ability to develop talent, and I pushed back. From my perspective, Chaulk gave all three of his first-round selections (Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Xavier Bourgault) the opportunity to succeed by playing the hell out of them in all situations. Holloway developed from exceptional athlete to fine hockey player, Broberg learned to keep his head up and stop admiring his passes, and Bourgault found out he was not physically strong enough to compete for AHL pucks. That’s what you want from your AHL pipeline. Results. You want the good, but prospects need to be placed in a position to succeed. What happens after that is up to the player.
If my argument a year ago was correct, we should be seeing players continue to develop in Bakersfield. How is that going?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1) 1-1-0
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games
- Season Record: 25-18-8, 58 points in 51 games
CHAULK’S CONDORS
Bakersfield is 9-1-0 in the last 10 games, and prospects are percolating in all areas. Music! Stan Bowman populated the roster with terrific NHL signings and Keith Gretzky found some AHL gems, too. Coach Chaulk should be given credit for coaching up this group to the point they are close to the best AHL club in the Pacific.
- Matt Tomkins 22, .907 2.96
- Connor Ingram 11, .856 4.04
- Connor Unger 6, .955 1.32
These numbers are exceptional, but the Ingram totals stand out in the negative. During the time he was in the AHL, Chaulk’s club found themselves without some important defensemen due to injury and recall. During that period, the coaching staff began to rely on rookies Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna. The team’s defensive structure needed to work around some areas of weakness (not everyone can move the puck) and things slowly came into view. Here’s how it looked for Carfagna and Akey during and then after the Ingram games.
- Carfagna during Ingram’s time: 18, 1-4-5; 12-13 EV goals (48 pct)
- Carfagna after Ingram’s time: 14, 2-3-5, 14-6 EV goals (70 pct)
- Akey during Ingram’s time: 11, 0-4-4; 12-9 EV goals (57 pct)
- Akey after Ingram’s time: 14, 2-4-6, 13-7 EV goals (65 pct)
Akey started to find his game when placed with Atro Leppanen, and then teamed up with Carfagna more recently. This is Chaulk’s job, coaching up defensemen and getting them to their outer marker as prospects. He did it with Broberg, and then Mike Kesselring and Max Wanner. Now, it doesn’t always work out, Wanner got lost in the flood last season when the Bakersfield defensive depth chart fell apart. He was impressive with the Bruins organization before injury this season.
Bakersfield’s attempts to cover for these issues last year didn’t work. The acquisitions, like Ronnie Attard, and the AHL deals, like Connor Corcoran, weren’t able to raise the group. This season, the two main AHL deals (Mason Millman and Luke Prokop) have been more reliable, with Millman especially useful.
The goaltending has also spiked since Ingram’s exit, and there’s plenty of credit due the stoppers. The question is, how much credit is due these two goalies, and will either of them play an NHL game for Edmonton?
- Matt Tomkins 8 games, .924 2.48
- Connor Ungar, 6 games, .955 1.32
My guess is no. Tomkins has stopped 164 of his more recent 172 shots faced (.954) and Ungar has been out of this world in the ECHL and AHL this season. I always pull for prospects and underdogs, and Ungar is both! I have to tell you I don’t see it. This is a small but brilliant sample size. It would take a couple of injuries to get either man to Edmonton, a city that has three goalies for two roster spots. If Ungar runs for a sustained period at this level? The Oilers will bring him up. That’s a helluva ask
I do see a path to the NHL for Akey and Carfagna, but not this season. The forwards? Well hell there’s a pike I’d like to see, including Quinn Hutson (again), Josh Samanski and Roby Jarventie. The point of my prose today is this: Let’s give enormous credit to all of these players. Let’s save a little for Chaulk and his assistant coaches: Keith McCambridge, Adam Krug, Kelly Guard. They don’t get much attention, but deserve it. The Condors have talent, and are well coached. It’s easy to hammer the AHL coach, hell I’ve done it many times. I think this team is a team, and Chaulk and his staff deserve their flowers.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. We’ll chat at length about the Oilers-Penguins and the goaltending for each team moving forward. We’re live on Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm. I hope you can join us.
Beauty goal by Savoie. Him and Howard are figuring things out in real time.
That third line is fun to watch. More so when Roslovic is at center.
Only 5 points up on San Jose and LA. Both have three games in hand.
Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
That’s why I said “if/when” they lose in the first round. This season is frustrating as it’s equal parts a lack of urgency and a lack of chemistry.
Stauffer blames the schedule and injuries but it’s more the roster construction and the coach’s misuse of players/failure to find roles that has this team much closer to the playoff cut line than it should be.
Schedule is rotten for everyone
Gotta stop blaming the schedule.
Both Jersey and Pittsburg were in the back half of a back-to-back set on the road.
Injuries … everyone’s got them.
Roster construction … yes.
Frederic, Mangiapane and Henrique … 4th line and pressbox material being paid a combined 10 million.
Nurse … a glorified 3LD being paid 9+ million.
Coaching … absolutely. The lack of accountability … being stubborn about playing the overpaid vet forwards cherry minutes, instead of rewarding the younger players who had shown more is fewer minutes.
The constant line juggling is baffling. Overplaying the 4 forwards and the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing.
The defensive structure and breakouts … a mess on most nights.
Sports net delivering the same advanced stats they’ve been giving since 1995.
Did you know when Crosby and Malkin both score the Pens are 160-10? No shit. I bet the Oilers have a good record when they get goals from Janmark and Nurse too. Why don’t you tell us their road PP% again.
Yeah, that was a huge complaint I had about Kevin Quinn. The baseball stats.
When Hall scores a secondary assist on a Tuesday matinee road game, the Oilers are 54% less likely to lose the game in regulation than if Khabibulin gets a shutout.
Give me a break. If only they put some time into understanding the stats and respecting the intellect of the audience, they might just be able to put out a half decent product. Instead they’re already being lapped by newcomers like TNT and Amazon.
I miss TSN’s coverage of EDM games.
Something needs to be said to the team after losing 6 of last 7 at home. Fans deserve better efforts.
My dad and younger sister came in from SK for the game. Her first in Edmonton (long time Oiler fan). That lack of effort is really inexcusable. As I said after a lifeless loss a couple weeks ago, when you need a geriatric Perry to be your emotional leader this team needs personnel changes and a new coaching staff. It just does. Anyone who thinks Bouchard should play on the Olympic team needs to watch the first goal. I don’t mind the occasional giveaway etc but he is entirely uninterested/clueless/useless in the defensive zone.
Two to two two
Drai knocking Brazeau and nurse down with one hit.
Too bad Brazeau got in the way.
Oh great now after Kris had th brainstorm to start #10 at 3C he thinks he sees something with #88 with Leon. Guaranteed we see it next game. Meanwhile we know 53-28-22 has no chance of surviving long term.
Ffs. It’s so sad. But my only guess is that Bowman is forcing KK to play those two. He signed these two to ridiculous contracts and now Bowman is doubling down by forcing the coach to play them. It’s the only possible way that they get into the lineup…stop the madness…please…
On a nite where nothing was going I did like many of Howard’s quick puck touches. Had some wobbles as well but I do think he’d work well with drai. Tonite may have been a chance to try something.
Why does he think he needs to do Louie’s job too? Let alone Siskel & Ebert’s….
Someone needs to tell Jack to just call the game. Or don’t. Its ok to be quiet at times.
LOL, Roslovic on the rush defence.
I said earlier today that McDavid is frustrated with the Edmonton ice. Watch on the Malkin goal. He loses his mind at the bench. It can’t be any of his teammates as that was all on him. Can’t be at the refs as it was a clean poke check.
I firmly believe he was barking “the ice is shit” because he can’t get a handle on the puck.
He should be frustrated wth himself on that play (and maybe at the pass to him being, well, not ideal).
You think he was screaming at Evan Bouchard?
He was.
I don’t believe that for one second. Maybe frustrated at himself for blowing the pass but I think too long and directed a tirade for that. It was more of a general rant…refs usually…but no way the refs could be blamed for that.
.
He was pissed at Bouchard for serving him up a pizza.
The Prime Video crew was all over it.
Prime video crew = gospel
I don’t follow. This game wasn’t a Prime telecast.
The game was part of Amazon Prime’s NHL Coast to Coast, a Thursday night “whiparound” show for Canadian subscribers, is hosted by Andi Petrillo.
The crew features rotating analysts and personalities, including notable contributors like Paul Bissonnette, Ryan Whitney, and Keith Yandle to discuss live action.
Since the Oiler games was late it got plenty of attention.
This team is so frustrating.
I am neither a Nurse hater, nor defender. I’ve always been of the opinion that if he made 7 million, no one would say a thing.
He’s obviously an incredible athlete. I truly believe he could have played any sport professionally he wanted to. Unfortunately for us, he chose hockey.
Jokes aside, this is the worst stretch he has had during his contract. Like others have said below, too many times he does the least hockey minded play available to him. Finally a cycle, and he wafts it on net with no one in front.
Saturday is a must win.
Jarry sporting a modest .722 save percentage after 40 minutes. Sooo…How about those Blue Jays?
Knoblach has to be getting close to being on the hot seat i would think. This team is better than this
He’s going to get a pass for this season if/when they get knocked out in the 1st round.
But he will be on the hot seat for sure next season. All he’s shown this year is that he knows how to put 97 & 29 out for 25+ minutes a night. A peewee coach can do that. That he and the GM are not on the same page on roster construction should be concerning.
I had tickets to tonight’s game.
I gave them away to two friends.
I now have two less friends.
If people want to know why I don’t think the Oilers can win a Cup (or I should say makes it very difficult to) with Darnell Nurse playing the 6th most even strength minutes in the NHL it’s that shift right there. Draisaitl line dominating possession. 7-8 passes it gets to Nurse and he floats a wrist shot into traffic and it’s blocked. The puck is then recovered and even better possession….probably 10 passes and Nurse tries a blind pass to no one in the slot. Shift over.
Could see Leon shaking his head.
He could be a Good player with a good bottom 6 who plays like that or even on a team who are looking for shots into traffic but this team, whether you like it or not, wants to win with possession. He’d also be much better on a team that plays man to man defense.
Haha. I yelled at drai. Why pass that to nurse?
A little line shuffle closer to the last 2 games wouldn’t hurt.
92-97-18
53-93-28
10-29-22
88-20-13
Not like anything else has worked tonight. Swap 88 and 10, but c’mon, this just isn’t working.
This team seems more discombobulated than a peewee team, like no one seems to be able make or take a clean pass.
Painful.
From the very first shift they looked like they were skating in sand.
Well yeah, it’s now a soft schedule and opposition is exhausted on a back to back.
Outskated, outworked, outplayed, outclassed. #thatsallshewrote
I missed half the game did skinner get a video like kane?
Yes, it was actually a combo video for Stu and Kulak, it was very nice.
Thanks for the update
Bad game all around. Jarry does not look in control in the net either. 5 alarm chances but he is ending up on his belly alot. Bit of a worry.
Not for me. He’s made a couple saves by his ability to scramble and recover.
For sure a tough game tho.
This game is not on Jarry. The team has been horsecrap in front of him.
Coach has no feel for his lines this year. At all.
Mcdavid looking pretty bad out there. Yikes
Turns out the Oilers were the soft spot in the schedule for a couple of mid tier teams on the second night of back to backs.
Thank goodness this game is blacked out here.
Coach is pissing away the longest home stand in 30 years. Yeeeesh
This team sure can lay eggs. Absolutely pathetic effort this evening.
I picked on a couple posters for suggesting Nurse should move to wing. I felt it was fantasy land. But I should apologize. If KK thinks Trent Frederic is a 3C he could easily think Nurse is a winger.
Backbreaker?..
Yup…mostly unwatchable. Very poor attention to detail. I’m out, but will check score in the morning….feels like a blowout.
Knoblach needs to realize that Novak vs Mcdavid is not working….
Connor has been noticeably bad for nearly five straight periods now. Bobbling pucks, trying to force it, taking bad penalties.
This team is obviously doomed without him playing like he who he is
This is a team problem mostly-not mostly a Mcdavid problem…the officiating has not been good either for last 5 periods…
Solid backtrack D by Nurse there.
Big Goal Jake – lets run with it.
A bright spot on a dark night.
Oilers: get he next goal – bare down and get it.
Hypothetical trade proposal,, and improbable due to NMC’s, but what would thoughts be on a Mangiapane/Nurse/Regula/3rd round pick for Couturier with half retention and Ristolainen? Enough, too much? Would it move the needle?
Nuge McD Hymen
Podz Drai Roslovic
Howard Couturier Savoie
Janmark/Frederic Lazar Kap
Ekholm Bouchard
Walman Ristolainen
Stastney Regula/Emberson
Jarry
Ingram
Holy garage league, Batman.
Everyone literally stopped waiting for a whistle, meanwhile the stripes were oblivious.
^FIFY
This might be the most frustrating Oilers club to watch in quite a long time. The inconsistent play is beyond weird. They just can’t get out of their own way….
For sure.
Wow. 3 goals on 9 shots?
Haven’t been able to watch.
What’s going on?
noattentiontodetail.gif
lackadaisicaleffort.gif
Nurse
Don’t listen to the BS, Nurse was hardly a problem.
The first was a 3 on 3 the Oilers played terrible. Bouch slid over the help Ekholm, Mang did not recognize and the third guy was given a clear lane to the net for a tap in – not unstoppable.
2nd was a bad turnover by McDavid on the rush so Bouch was caught up, Ekholm beat on the stretch pass for a breakaway.
Third was really just a good tip on a slot pass high by Crosby.
Oilers played and after the first 4 minutes but could’t execute some great chances.
It was actually 3 for 4. Much better second half!
Sure, Jack, but why would the Penguins run out of gas when they’ve encountered almost zero resistance through the first period?
I was about to sarcastically post “Fellas, I think this team may be better with the puck than without it.” Then that 3 on 1 happened. Completely derailed my sass.
Really took the wind out of my sails, what do I say now? “Smart play Ekholm, get the puck deep.”
3 on 1 and not even a shot. Why pass it to Ekholm???
Inexcusable. That can’t happen.
I’ve never seen a team pass up a 4 on 1
3 on 1 and no shot on net????
Its a tough decision to drive 3 hrs and drop 600-800 bucks to watch an Oilers game because you know this team takes off like 60 percent of every season and you never know what you’re going to get.
Your mileage may vary.
Another form of sports gambling!
It’s definitely what they are being asked to do
It’s wrong. So now this Art S is goalering team? BS
Let me guess…
Nurse’s fault?
Clearly it is all Skinner’s fault.
Maybe Nurse’s?
Ha! Clearly.
100/100 goalie pull situation, and Knoblauch leaves him in…
Good gawd this guy…
The good thing about giving up 3 goals in the first 3 minutes is there’s lots of time left to get back into it..? I guess.
The Oilers special
First thing poor defensive coverage. Jarry might have had one of them
Second Bouch is not on team Canada bcs he doesn’t realize in time danger #1 which is the seam pass
Forwards abandoned defense
Sure they will get it together, boring for paying fans
The second one was a terrible offensive zone turnover by McDavid/Nuge.