I have the Oilers going 3-2-2 during the current homestand and last night’s game tells you why. For some reason these Oilers have the damndest time taking advantage of opportunity. They are often better against higher quality teams, and slack against the soft parade. It’s a damn silly waste of an opportunity, but you’re not going to win many NHL games scoring one goal.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1) 1-1-0
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games
- Season Record: 25-18-8, 58 points in 51 games
After last night’s loss, the club is on a trajectory that will see them finish just shy of my prediction. No worries really, but winning the division requires showing a little more than we saw last night.
There will be plenty of chatter today about the team’s inability to win three in a row this season, but the Oilers are better in coverage and in goal now. If Leon plays that game, maybe there’s a different result. Any road, this will give the coach a chance to tweak the lines and pairings.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 8:43, 6-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 89X, 6-0 HDSC
- Howard-Roslovic-Savoie 7:13, 3-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 34X. 1-2 HDSC
- Mangiapane-Lazar-Janmark 4:58, 1-3 shots, 21X, 1-2 HDSC
- Frederic-Nuge-Roslovic 4:09, 0-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 27X
Matt Savoie scored a goal, that’s a positive, with Ike Howard picking up an assist. Five-on-five scoring in the second half will be vital for both men’s hopes of hanging around for the playoffs. Vasily Podkolzin isn’t listed here, but had three shots, two HDSC, and 17 minutes in penalties. He came to McDavid’s aid after the high hat from Kovacevic and that’s alright by me. Target the captain, there will be blood. McDavid can take care of himself, but I don’t mind a little enforcing and was happy to see Podkolzin step up there. Threw the lines for a loop, though. I’m not going to blame the skill guys, chances were there, luck wasn’t with the Oildrop and that happens.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 18:19, 6-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 49X, 5-1 HDSC
- Nurse-Emberson 8:25, 2-3 shots, 44X, 2-2 HDSC
- Stastney-Walman 7:37, 4-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 81X, 1-1 HDSC
- Nurse-Walman 5:52, 4-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 83X, 3-1 HDSC
- Stastney-Emberson 4:07, 1-0 shots, 44X, 1-1 HDSC
- Tristan Jarry 15 of 17 stops, .882SP
Nurse-Walman played about six minutes together and it was good. I hope to see them tomorrow night on the second pair. Over parts of two seasons, the tandem is 59 percent goal share at five-on-five. The top pairing had five HDSC and came out behind, that’s blue rare. Tristan Jarry allowed two, but made one scintillating stop and a couple of nice ones to boot. We are entering the ‘we don’t talk much about the goalie because he stops everything he should’ zone, suspect the last time was Cam Talbot.
I don’t like the 11-7 but it’s short term and there is value in making sure the goaltenders acquired a healthy and true for the long haul. Sam Pollock ran three goalies (Michel Larocque, Michel Plasse, Wayne Thomas) when he wasn’t sure, I think Stan Bowman can do the same.
Since January 1, Matt Savoie is scoring 1.57 points-60 and Ike Howard is at 1.21 points-60. They are sucking hind banana in goal share five-on-five, but there is progress. I’m extremely doubtful either man plays as much as Dylan Holloway did in the spring of 2024.
On the Lowdown today, I’ll be joined by Kevin McCurdy. We’ll talk about last night’s game, the Oilers baffling inability to take advantage of opportunities, and the Nuge! Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
About the Nuge
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6984682/2026/01/21/edmonton-oilers-ryan-nugent-hopkins-nhl-1000-games/
RNH is in my top 5 Oilers of all time.
under appreciated by some, beloved by most.
I wrote last week that Nuge should get to 1000 points by age 35 at the end of his current Oilers contract. I think he’s on the borderline of HHOF induction with a Cup win needed to confirm his HHOF qualifications. If he’s still a 50 point player going into his 40th year, that would also seemingly lock in his Hall of Fame credentials.
Of course, McD and Drai are locks to get in now with Bouchard, needing the same Cup win(s) as Nuge, to solidify his HHOF candidacy. Without having the chance to be on this year’s Olympic team or many Team Canada(s), Bouch will have to produce at a #1D rate (~60+ pts/yr) for about 10 more years and get close to 1000 pts to make it overwhelmingly obvious to vote him in. Kevin Lowe only has 431 pts and it looks like Bouch will pass that point total in 3 years by the time his 30th birthday rolls around.
A HOF who never scored 50 pts you say? Who does he think he is? Bob Gainey?
I assumed this was hyperbole, until I looked it up. In the high-flying ’80s, the age of air hockey, Bob Gainey maxed out at 47 points!
Granted, four consecutive Selkes ain’t bad. But how much did voters really know? Craig Ramsay finished second to Gainey every year, except the year he was third. Never won a Selke. Montreal privilege.
I was projecting ahead a decade and looking at upcoming HHOF defencemen candidates.
Erik Karlsson has been an elite offensive D for 15 seasons, 3 Norris Trophys and has over 900 points without winning a Cup. Oliver Ekman Larsson has also been around 15 years, being great on some horrible Coyotes teams, has 531 points and has won a Cup. Pretty sure Karlsson gets in but does OEL?
Mark Giordano is at 577 pts over 18 seasons. Was that enough?
Bouchard’s candidacy will have the questions: Was he that good or was his production propped up playing with 29/97?
37 save shutout for Matt Tomkins – his second straight shutout as the Condors move to 2 points from the division lead beating a very good Colorado team.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski added to his apple collection with a pair.
Nicholl garnered an assist.
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
DNB confirms he no longer works for The Athletic.
Josh Brown with the zone entry, drops to Griffith, skates in to top of circles, rips it, Brown crashes the net (Marjala in picture), Griffith bangs home the rebound.
3-0.
Condors running the division leading Eagles right out of the building.
Marjala with a great forecheck and steal behind the COL net, feeds Griffith who goes cross crease to D’Amato for a back-door tap in. 2-0 Condors early (Pitlick with the 1st). Miner had back to back NHL/AHL shutouts!
Tomkins stopped ANOTHER breakaway.
Per Spec:
If the org really love the guy as much as we here, lets him go on waivers and see if there is a team that will grab him and give him some playing time as he works towards a contract for next season….. right?
Trade – get something. But yes if he wants to play more than ride it out and see happens
They don’t want to trade him or waiver him – they want to keep him as insurance but they can’t. Don’t see any real asset coming back in a trade.
Why would an org that loves and values the guy give him away for free?
Allow the GM to work and do what’s best for the team, Pickard will survive I’m sure.
Right?
They have two goals that are materially better and they need the cap space he occupies.
Getting something would be nice but it’s highly likely there is zero trade value or next thereto. He might even slide through on waivers – probably not because of a couple desperate teams but no real asset of any value is being given up for him, in my opinion.
I mean, hold out for seventh round pick or a C prospect – its not worth it given the clear need NOW for the cap space – it might have already costs the team a point or two last night.
Goalies that have any type of NHL success always have value. Especially at a low cap hit, right?
He’s not had success this year – he’s been one of the worst tenders in the league 50 games in to the season and his success was based on wins and team based more than anything, right?
Among 75 goalies who have played at least 5 games this season, Pickard ranks 55th in GSAx/60. Not great, but far from “one of the worst”. Notable names below him: Bobrovsky, Montembeault, Merzlikins, Andersen, Markstrom, Ullmark, Stolarz, Hill, Binnington and Hart. Do those goalies also have no value?
I’d have to go look at cap but, yup, I wouldn’t think any of those goalies would be tradable at there cap hits if there is any term on their contracts. Bob has not term left so maybe a team would take him with big retainment but, if he had a year left at his AAV, nope.
Pickard said don’t feel sorry for me
I understand that they are people. But – they make such enormous amounts of money even at league minimum, and chose the path, sorry
So many people are struggling, so many people are working away from their families in Alberta or wherever to have a better life
Pick has earned by Puckpedia almost 10M US. Don’t bother correcting me Fibb, the point is 100% valid
Sit or get traded. If I had that much money, and an organization helping, a move, which we and 80 zillion people have had to do, would be a ‘little’ easier
Be the best you can be is the only choice for successful pro sport
I don’t think it’s the Org that loves him. I am sure they like the guy, but it was the players who were to have said they loved him and didn’t want him traded. But yes from that interview he is not happy, so ask Philly or Ottawa if they want him in a trade and if not put him on waivers. He has been a good soldier and never complained or said anything until this blurb with Spector.
Philidelphia is said to be monitoring Edmonton’s goalie situation ( Dregger mentioned it) . Ottawa is in somewhat of a pickle with goaltending, But if he goes on waivers and they are both interested there are 10 teams with worse records than Ottawa and 14 in front of Philly. No clue if any would take him before either of those teams. But if Philly is interested they could trade for him. Not that we would get anything in return besides a really low pick or prospect, but he would get to play
OTT and PHI both have need of a backup goalie and would send back a 5th rounder now for Picks. I believe the Oilers are trying to send him to a contender of his choice in recognition of his playoff contributions to the team. Plus they may be looking at packages that include Mangiapane in the same deal.
Other teams can see the roster and cap pressure the EDM is under and are hoping we crack first in this game of chicken. If the Oilers can keep up the roster juggling until the Olympic break, I think we see the Pickard trade shortly after players come back from Italy.
Regular season performance is nice but an experienced playoff goalie is always valuable asset. I bet SJ would love to get Pickard to back up Askarov or, if Kuemper is out longer than expected, Holland would be happy to grab a vet like Pickard for LA.
If EDM put Pickard on waivers, don’t be surprised if a team like VAN puts in a claim. They would take him simply to flip him for that same draft pick that EDM was/is asking for and generate more assets for their rebuild.
One thing to consider is that if you claimed a guy on waivers, and then waive him again, the original team gets him back, right?
Not exactly.
If the claiming teams waives him, the regular waiver order still applies to the Oilers only get him if they are lowest standings team to claim him and the Oilers can only put him in the AHL if the Oilers are the ONLY claiming team – if a second team behind the Oilers also put in a claim then the Oilers cannot assign him to the AHL without more waivers.
Thanks! Clearly I am not a lawyer.
Honestly with the regression from the last 2 seasons and post seasons. How far do all of you think the teams makes it his year in the post season ? 1, 2, 3, 4 rounds ??? I think maybe 3 maybe.
I think it comes down to if Bowman can make tweaks. And if the players come around to playing a more consistent game, which I think they will (it starts at the top) but I bet not until after the Olympics. I think it’s distracting Connor and Leon, human nature and two hyper competitive guys, first Olympics and all
There are 2 teams that are at a level above the Oilers as things stand – the Avs and Lightning. Maybe adding Andersson pumps up the Knights, we’ll see and they have more cap to use. But the tracking I do doesn’t show them as one of the really strong teams since Nov 29, even if they have been pretty hot lately
If they play up to their level, injuries don’t derail them, 3 seems realistic and if someone else takes out the Avs 4. I’m not sure the Oilers can take them out, maybe bad memories from them hammering us a few years ago
A lot of folks see the team as not as good as the last two seasons, I’m not sure yet, even if they aren’t playing their best every game
A real wild card this season is the goaltending changes. If Ingram and Jarry can keep it rolling the consistency would be a huge help. Last playoffs Bob in all strength SV% was 2nd, Stu and Pick 11th and 14th. They had their moments, but for the goalie it needs to be every game, or almost. Massive difference to the skater’s mind set
Scungilli Slushy i agree with alot said i worry cause its an olympic year as well and the oilers never play great after any break. When they come back its like the training wheels are back on and i worry that can detrail the team. Never thought Edmonton and maybe St. Louis are the only teams that havent won 3 games in a row. Not saying thats important but man oh man. Consistancy is Bloody Important IMO. And that last commment about the wild card goaltending is spot on we wont know until we are backs against the wall and quite possible KO out of the Playoffs and dont even get me started on reffing the last few post seasons.
I know it’s just one game, but the effort last night sort of encapsulates what I think will hold them back this year. The whole team looked listless unless McDavid was out there – New Jersey knew this and zoned in on him and was able to shut down most of our offence until the second half of the third period. Obviously we were thin on forwards with draisaitl and kapanen out, and podkolzin getting his instigator, but it still felt like our lack of depth was exposed.
There are a lot of positive arrows and room for growth throughout the lineup, but they just seem too inconsistent this year to be a real threat. Our top 6 is good enough that they may be able to cover up the lack of depth if everyone stays healthy, but my guess is that eventually one of McDavid or Draisailt gets shut down and our bottom 6 continues to score 30% of the goals and that’ll be that.
They have upgraded the goaltending, both 1A and 1B and the entire core is still in their primes and have the ability to play at the peak of their powers: McDavid and Drai are in their prime and Hyman and Nuge are at the end of their primes but are showing they can still play at near peak levels and Bouchard isn’t even in his prime yet. Ekholm is +24 since mid-November.
Maybe they lose n the first round but this core with this goaltending can certainly go just as far as they did the last two seasons.
Skinner starting tonight so it’s testing towards Ingram vs. Silovs tomorrow.
Where are all the Skinner haters now?
Gregor noting that Clattenburg had surgery on his hand today – wlll be out a while.
Tomkins starts tonight for Bako……. sigh.
I know (or at least have been told) that the one area the NHL team “controls”, at least by way ‘of general directive” is the goaltending.
I can only gather they want to ensure the Tomkins running and at the top of his game knowing that Pickard will be at risk soon and he could get the call at any time if an injury/illness/personal matter pops up.
Lines at practice today:
Oilers practice lines…
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Howard-Roslovic-Savoie
Janmark-Lazar-Mangiapane
Podkolzin-Frederic-Regula (playing Fwd)
No neither Nurse nor Bouchard will, or should, play forward.
Why are they punishing Podz by playing him with Freddy & Regula on a fourth line?
Weird, he’s been tremendous with Connor & Zach. Those are some odd combinations.
But it’s PRACTISE.
Just guessing the coach wants a heavy line. Maybe signaling a team need.
They could simply use Lazer at 4c with Freddy & Reg, keep Podz with Connor & Zach
and play Nuge at center. I don’t know but that makes sense to me.
It was telling when Knoblauch was being interview at the start of the second by TNT and they asked him what it means for the team that Podz stood up for the captain and not one positive word came out of Knoblauch’s mouth about it.
If you drop the gloves and fight for your teammates under Knoblauch expect 4th line duties, if not healthy scratched.
This is concerning if true
Good point I guess
Or, they expect Drai back on Thursday so they are keeping the other 3 lines together. Draisaitl wiould play with Pod and Fred so Regula is the placeholder because he will be scratched.
I gather, with only 11 available forwards, they figure they only need three players to play center and Nuge can go back to the top line where the org clearly likes him the best right now.
Podz isn’t being punished but they want to keep the “normal” third line together and Podz can literally play any of the 8 winger positions…..
Or maybe Kapanen will be back for tomorrow. Did he not skate at practice?
I know he skated yesterday don’t know about today but he didn’t practice.
Accounts are Saturday at the earliest but likely next week.
The coach lost me a a while
back. I know no one cares, but I don’t like him as a coach for this team.
My daughters u18 Major team runs 11 forwards and uses this method with a “pair”. It’s best to look at Podz/Freddy as the second line as they’ll have a significant influx of talent as in general they’ll have one of 97/93/18(?) go through it. But in practice they’ll be 3rd so that the double shifter has a rest.
97 line
28 kine
92 pair +97/93
20 line
Having your pair be top 6 players leaves your bottom six together and ensures you don’t waste talent playing with scrubs.
Saying all of that, Trent Frederic in that pair after yesterday? Woof
Fire the coach
Cool, so while missing one of our top two centers, coach thinks the best idea is to load up the top line with the replacement #2 center. Essentially running a 1C, a 4C and two wingers as makeshift centers.
One winger as a make-shift center (who did score two goals as a centre in a game on the weekend…) – its three centers and a winger pair I think.
I think I know what could work better – 12 forwards……
Any of Hutson, Jarventie, Samanski, Jones, shit, even Hamblin could make an impact play.
Great song. But yes, a terrible way to play the first 40.
Especially so as I’d just watched a very awake and electric Habs team win. (I had my fingers crossed for a similar finish for the Oilers -last year the two teams were both rocking incredible late-3rd come-from-behind performances. Alas, Allen -and bad luck- had the Oilers numbers.)
11-7 12-6 last night’s results would of been the same regardless of what alignment was rolled out.
Calling up someone from the AHL to play 8:57 of wandering headless chicken wouldn’t make a scratch of a difference
Does the coaching staff realize you need to have a clear game plan and role for everyone and not just 5 or 6 guys?
Whats easier for Bowman at this point, flip a 1/3rd of the roster or come back with a new bench boss after the Olympics?
I wonder how much they miss Gully
Coffey too.
Breaking camp with McDrai as line 1 should of rang more alarm bells.
I think it rang a lot and alarm bells. I recall pretty much everyone has always complained about loading up McDrai for as long as I can remember lol. Except for Gregor but I think even he came around a couple years ago.
but IIRC Knoblauch basically said he was starting them together because he wanted to have at least a one line that could be relied on for offense? Paraphrasing, but I think that was the logic stated. not a great way to start the season – basically no confidence in the supporting cast from day 1..
My recollection was that the coach defending loading up McDrai, saying that he didn’t want them to play too many minutes.
Then he proceeded to play McDavid for more minutes than ever before.
Drai in 2025-2026 is averaging 22:05 per game, and while his career average is 20:40, he has averaged more minutes per game in 4 previous seasons (2018-2022).
It wasn’t ringing alarm bells inside the arena, and that’s alarming.
If the GM is bringing in puck skill and the coach only believes he has one offensive option.. The GM and coach are not on the same page, something needs to change.
I’m going to optimistically say that training camp McDrai was to keep McDavid happy, so that he would sign a team-friendly extension.
And it worked!
They abandoned it early enough to save face.
Hasn’t it been stated McDavid wanted to sign longer for less and his camp was fully against it.
They could of abandoned it the moment the contract was sign, instead they burnt all of October to go with it.
They have the best powerplay to ever walk the earth without him so it can’t be all bad.
That’s true, it’s also true Gully’s team has 7 more points and 3 more wins in 1 less game then the Oilers with their greatest of all time powerplay.
They finished last year 5 ahead with 2 more wins. 2 point Gully affect, generational edge. Beat in 5.
Finished ahead 9 points the year before that, negative 2 point Gully edge. Beat in 6.
Why are we talking about the past?
Gully’s team is ahead of Knob’s team with less games played and not the best powerplay in the history of hockey.
Because they don’t miss Gully because the PP somehow got better and the Stars are in almost the exact same place as the last 2 years so not sure what they gained getting him.
Their PP is a bit better but they’ve only won 3 of their last 13. In case we wanted to discuss the now.
I don’t think you can measure impact in the way you suggest. I think Gully was pretty good tactician and was involved in a lot more than the power-play. He was much senior too Knoblauch and offered a different voice in the room.
Presently, I don’t think there’s any opposing voices in the room and one might say that’s a good thing but it also doesn’t breed any competition or new thinking
Taking aside the fact that coach has the ability to ice a call-up more than 8:57, if he so chooses, stating that it wouldn’t have made a difference is unknowable speculation – for all we know a Hutson or a Jarventie or a Samanski, young, energetic, full of confidence and swagger, could have made a legit play in one-goal game.
Taking further aside it would have permitted the coach to run lines and it would have been a hell of a lot easier to manage when Podz was taken out of the game for a third of it and they went down to 10 forwards.
I know for a fact that Pickard on the roster didn’t make a scratch of a difference.
And anyone watching knows for a fact calling up anyone from the AHL to play 9 mins for this coach does not make a difference.
Pickard being kept around is not the reason the Oilers lost last night.
Having 3 goalies isn’t the reason the Oilers typically get out worked, are beaten to pucks consistently, and are left praying McDavid magic saves the day.
Podz stands up for his captain and the coach takes their 2nd line center and puts him back on the first line and signals the remaining forwards are useless.
I know for a fact that Pickard being on the roster didn’t make a scratch of a difference.
Hutson scored a goal and made plays in very limited ice time.
Max Jones was playing well when he was up.
James Hamblin has scored goals in the NHL from a depth role.
You do not know what any call-up would have done and would having a 12th forward would have done to the flow of their game.
Having Pickard on the roster 100% made a scratch of a difference as it prevented his coach from icing 12 forwards like he prefers.
Oilers played quite poorly and seemed stuck in the mud until the 3rd period. Then they looked great. Allen stole that game in the 3rd for sure as the Oil were all over him. He always gets up for the Oilers. POD’s gets credit for jumping in on that cheap shot, but 17 minutes.hurt.
One thing I noticed last night and Mactavish even mentioned it in the intermission of the 2nd and 3rd. He said the Oilers looked great small out there. After Pods went out ( and w/o the big Drai) they really did. That line of Roslovic , Savoie, Howard were getting knocked down a lot. Roslovic is tall but he is a lightweight as well with those 2. Add Magpie to the mix and he was right.
They will need a bigger winger for the 3rd line for sure. Freddy was really starting to come along, but last night was not good at all. For a big guy he really gets pushed off the puck a lot .
That 3rd period was fun. Just too bad they didn’t tie it.
It seems the 3 game winning streak is a curse.
Hyman is playing sooooo good right now , it’s unreal. The Olympic team really is nuts if they don’t take him.
I really liked Jarry’s game as he made some unreal saves as well in the 2nd to keep it close. The 1st goal he let in was a bit ? But he was good. Letting in just 2 with this team should win you the game.
Hope Drai is back for Thursday but if not they need to play that 3rd period. Skinner will be up for this one. Light him up !
This is what I saw too. Only difference I saw, was that I thought Hyman and Nuge were both a bit off. They both did a lot of fumbling and bumbling. Especially in the possession metric and on PP. Other than that you hit the nail, Good post.
1st periods they were but Hyman was a beast in the 3rd .
LMAO. Thank you for the chuckle LT. “Sucking the hind banana” is still one of my Favorite quotes by any coach and I used the quote myself from time to time. Forgot about it recently. Thanks for the reminder. I thought the game was awful last night and I would have been very angry if I was paying for tickets to watch that crap, but the team has had another incredibly hard stretch and they looked very tired and not very interested to win a division title. Tired teams can do these types of things.
The other team played the night before – THEY were supposed to be tired.
Matt Tomkins had the tending performance of the year for the Condors but I’m hoping to see Ungar with the start tonight. With back to backs Fri/Sat, tonight’s starter will start 2 of 3.
Tomkins has got half the starts at least all season long and Ungar, who did get two in a row last week, starting tonight would be a tell the org wants to see more.
One would think they don’t need to keep Pickard around anymore.
This team is so frustrating.
Since Nov 29 the Oilers have played 8 games against playoff teams (based on standings the previous day to the game). Of the 10 teams I track the average POT GP is 11
They are 4-4. I don’t think they play better teams any different than their weird rhythm so far. Their schedule opponent wise has been pretty easy
I imagine they don’t get rolling until after the Olympics, given how unpredictable they are. Hopefully they focus and dial it in then and are rolling come playoffs, and get up the standings
“playoff teams” in a season where the standings are so close and very fluid are not very revealing.
There are 10 teams with a winning percentage above .600 and the number of games and record against the “good” teams tells us more.
Since November 29, the Oilers have played 7 games against those teams and have a record of 2-4-1
Fortunately, the games scheduled before the Olympic break and to the end of February are generally against the Sisters of the Poor (sub .600).
March will be much tougher with 7 games against the “good teams).
Maybe but ‘in the playoffs’ works as a benchmark when I’m collecting a bunch of different numbers. Also, while the standings are compressed, I think that being in the playoffs indicates teams that are playing well, they jump in and the teams that aren’t or aren’t consistent fall out
The thing is there are so many teams doing that and winning or losing even one game in OT can have an outsized impact.
Having a winning percentage above .600 is a much better indication of what a “good” team is IMO since it reflects playing well over a much larger sample size.
Then run your own numbers, come to your own conclusions, and stop attacking folks that are running numbers in a way they like that are digestible to them.
Slushy doesn’t need to tally anything in a way that’s digestible to you.
I did….look up.
2-4-1
I agree your suggestion would show stronger teams, but at the same time W% also jumps around your number. Of the teams I track there are currently 4 above .600, and all but the Sharks are the actual top contenders that get mentioned
So I’m not sure that tells anything more or that different given it cuts out so many teams, maybe less
There are 10 teams above .600
In the WC there are 7 teams ranging from 58 points down to 51 points…however once adjusted for games played and remaining things are even closer than that so these teams are roughly equal.
In the EC, there are 10 teams below .600 but above .500 and any of them can rocket up the standings and into playoff spots with even a brief win streak and then fall back just as easily.
Seems to me, if you’re judging how well a team is performing, what they accomplish against the .600 club will tell you far more than a constant churn of mediocrity.
Having said that, I find your posts on this of interest and welcome.
Thanks for this. I know everyone is excited about the new goalie tandem, but I’m hesitant to make any conclusions until the sample size is larger than 6 & 9 games respectively, and the strength of competition is ramped up as we get closer to playoffs and in playoffs. It was a pretty tough schedule with all that travel the first couple of months (19 away games out of 28 games played).
Right back to square one with Frederic too. His worst game in weeks.
Complete black hole of a player. Not seeing anything promising. Any positive stats he has seen like they must come from linemates doing stuff because of you focus on him during plays he is so rarely doing anything contributory. Below replacement level. Just bring up Samanski. At least he would be playing for something. Frederic gifted minutes for nothing. Worst self-inflicted wound of a contract. A truly unbelievable story for this team.
Frederic and Magpie are DOD bad. Just sit them and let the kids from the minors play.
I thought until last night he had put up 5-6 so,I’d games.
I think Frederic is struggling with finding his identity and the way the coach runs the forwards (11) makes the issue worse.
Not saying it’s an execuse, but when your dance partners constantly change and you’re not sure of your role, it’s back to having to think instead of react.
In some ways, Freddy needs a Crash Davis to tell him to stop thinking and just throw the ball.
Maybe the coach will sit him for one game and expect a reset again? :\
I don’t think it’s bad attitude or laziness.
I’ve previously suggested that he needs to be sat until he gets the physio / strength training / etc. until he’s close to 100% physically.I’ve previously neglected that if he’s not 100% physically, his confidence is likely plummeting. I don’t see his ongoing struggles playing like this contributing to improvements in his confidence.If he gets rehab and eventually feels 100% again, I think he would start to feel more confident in his ability to contribute physically to the team.Dear Coach: please stop playing him and expecting him to improve. And if you sit him, be prepared to sit him for as long as it takes to get him back to being his best. We don’t need this version of Frederic at all, but come playoff time, we really could use the pre-injury Frederic who played for Boston a little over a year ago.
Absolutely. Just LTIR hom already and get him rehabbed. No recent player can be this bad for so long without something physically severely off of baseline
Saw him very tenative and slow to react.
I am surprised to see our host say Nurse played well with no mention of what, to my eye, was among the worst plays of the season.
Note, I mentioned yesterday the player has played well in the last 20 but to keep the conversation honest we have to call out mistakes this large.
I would suggest it’s unreasonable to expect rookies Savoie and Howard to produce meaningful offence playing together on the third line with no PP time.
That’s the job, Jimmy. You have to move the needle. Knoblauch would be foolish to move Nuge or Hyman off the PP for Savoie and or Howard as a regular. I’m not a ‘they have to wait their turn’ but do believe you need to show a pulse. They are currently doing so at five-on-five.
Wasn’t Walman on the PP? Shouldn’t Howard have been there instead?
Unless you have the forward of at least a Hyman to replace Drai, when he is missing you need to put a D back there, imo.
Pods was supposed to be on it, but took 17 minutes
You’re crazy man.
Give them a Nuge up the middle and see, Henrique’s corpse and career winger Roslovic isn’t offering much of a chance to anyone.
Nurse on the second goal I just don’t understand. Threw away two points because you wanted to throttle someone at the boards over and over and then didn’t even look at the play before going for a change. Ghastly.
Every time I mention having Nurse as a forward, I get some downvotes. But I’ll try again…
Nurse is fast, amazingly conditioned, is good at transporting the puck up the ice, and (IMHO) better offensive instincts than defensive instincts.
And if people don’t agree with that… how about this logic… when Nurse takes himself out of the play or flops on the ice, there’s only one other defender trying to help the goalie stop the other team from scoring. If Nurse does the same thing as a winger, there are still two defenders trying to help the goalie on the play.
The team is already playing 11-7… I wish the coaching staff had the creativity to try Nurse as a LW for just a few games.
I would never downvote you but I think the reaction is because the idea is silly. Name one defenseman who has done this in this century. A couple have moved to forward last century. And they were early 20s. It’s like saying he’s 6’5” and flexible so should try goalie.
I can think of only three.
Burns
Byfuglien
Howe (Mark)
All drafted as Defencmen, All moved briefly to forward then back to defence, with the exception of Byfuglien who excelled at forward during the cup run with Chicago, switched back to Dman after.
notables are
McSorley
Coffey was moved up to wing at times
As I’m writing this, I believe Dandenault on the Wings was a defenceman who converted as well.
In my 40 years of hockey that’s all I can think of.
extremely rare.
I forgot Buffy had as well.
Wendel Clark
okay, we may have to back a century but…
BURNS
He went the other way. Maybe there was some jiggling in his early 20s but like Buff he settled in at defense for 90% of his career. I can think of no one in decades who had a 10+ year career as a top 4 defense and then switched to forward for the last 10.
While far from a household name Kurtis MacDermid…a team mate of Connor McDavind with the Erie Otters has done so.
MacDermid has largely transitioned from a defenseman to a forward (left wing) in recent seasons, but he has played a total of 304 regular-season games in his NHL career.
While he debuted as a defenseman with the Los Angeles Kings, he has increasingly played as a forward/enforcer for the Colorado Avalanche, New Jersey Devils, and Ottawa Senators.
In the 2024-25 season, he played 23 games and in 2025-26, he has played sparingly (16 games in early 2025-26), often serving as a depth forward.
Dustin Byfuglien moved from D to Forward and Chicago took Stanley 2010
Thanks for the comment. I just don’t see the transition as being that hard… I think going from a forward to defense would be crazy, but I think the transition the other way should be more doable, certainly for someone like Nurse with his attributes.
Maybe it’s just unrealistic at the end-of-the-day but a contributing reason for me to keep hoping they try Nurse at forward is because I don’t think the Oilers can win the cup with Nurse playing defense for them, and I know they’ll never sit him.
In an interview with Wendle Clarke who was drafted 1OVA as a number 1 dman and was put on the wing the first day of training camp said it’s easy to transition from a dman to a forward; not so much the other way.
Don’t waste your breathe.
I also support this idea. Not sure why we can’t think outside of the box on stuff. Shrug. I think he would be a great forward as his best qualities seem to be suited to forward and his worst to defending. I dunno. It would be pretty interesting to try it for 20 games. Especially since we have a couple of extra D. Darnell on wing would have at least a chance to excell.
No one knows whether Nurse would work out as a LW until they try it. But if he could play LW that helps solve multiple current problems: Adds size and grit and speed to forward group; Frees Nuge to play 3C, bottom six desperately needs Nuge at 3C to out score; Walman move to his natural left side where he is more effective; and focuses management on finding and filling the one remaining weakness on this team and that is a playoff caliber 2RD.
I would luv to see him up front. Remember Burns used to do it in Minny and when he 1st got moved.
And Nurse loves to join the rush
Sometimes he thinks he’s Bobby Orr???
100%
i do not agree that he is fast. His strides are becoming straighter-legged and choppier/shorter. What I notice is how often forwards close the gap on him on puck retrievals now.
I would not trust him on break outs, which might be ~25% of a wingers job, to be able to do so reliably – pick up the pass, move it safely or get it over the blue line. Probably a lot of Kassian ass-to-the-play and bump it back to the D so we can go try the other side.
I would also not expect good results on cycles, where touch matters to put the puck in the right spot for teammate.
They’ll never do it. Players always think they can help or do the job. Ray Whitney eventually dropped his animosity to the team regarding his health issues and play
I think that if Bowman decides Nurse is in the way he’ll do something about it if he can before the trade protection relaxes. I don’t know how aggressive he would be, and it could be risky if he is, but he seems like he doesn’t wait around long
Prospectiation!
A dyad of NAmateurs take the ice this day, both north of the border.
William Nicholl is getting his groove back with points in four of his last five, 3-2-5 in 7 GP overall. He is also >55% on the dot.
David Lewandowski hasn’t scored in seven Dub games but continues to lead the Blades with 28 apples. His Blades host a Victoria squad that got Royally smoked 12-2 in PA last night.
If you have the eyes to see, you may watch S’toon vs. Victoria on TSN+. Check local listings for details.
London (Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Dead Man’s Flats time.
This team has virtually no chance of winning a division, they can’t expect to win games just showing up for a period. I didn’t bother watching the game, just saw the highlights. Figured Jersey would win. The Oilers lack depth and what in the double hockey sticks was Nurse doing on that second goal?? Albatross of a contract and why is the discussion always: who can play with him? 9.25 mil player should be able to push the play and jive with other partners. Seems like a cool dude but I’m not a fan of the player or his continuous bone headed plays. Vegas added Rasmus, so they will win the division with absolute ease. Oilers will probably play the Kings again for the umpteenth time 😤
This team as it’s built gets skidded the first round.
I don’t think so. Big guns will show up as they do.
I think goalies will show up
But it will be a struggle for rest of the team. This is who coach has to coach
The 3 goalie issue is not ideal. I think there is little chance they can sneak Pickard through waivers. I understand they are probably worried about Jarry’s durability at the moment. You would think that they could find a trading partner for Pickard rather than losing him on waivers. If they jettison Pickard and Jarry gets hurt again, it seems like they can run with Ingram and pull up a goalie from the farm.
Trade Jarry? He probably has good trade value, and that frees $5M+
As this team has shown, since Nov 26, when they play well it doesn’t matter who’s in net. (Yes, I loved the Hasek-like flamboyance, but that neither saved nor won the game.)
Ludicrous – Tristan Jarry is showing why he is value for his cap hit and, once the re-sign is done, the Jarry/Ingram tandem for the next few years wlll make goaltending a non-conversation, finally!
I know. Crazy. But as I watch this game (hockey, generally, at the NHL level, where “elite” goalies wax and wane, and some of the seeming best can’t win a Cup), and as I look at the numbers (not just the “he looks steady” or “he stole the game” verbal), and as I listen to the muddied rationale of goalie coaches & whisperers who are seriously trying to figure out what’s going on in the crease and in front of it I’m less inclined to think any one goalie makes a difference (outside of the obvious hot and cold streaks).
I was waiting to hear this fan base start to question one of these new goalies. After last night, I figured it’d start. It has. Several times today I’ve either read or heard, “He should have had that one” and “That’s one he’d like back.” Strudwick had the only useful response I can imagine to these meaningless phrases (shouldn’t the goalie get all the saves? Want to bet he wants every goal back? Duh): Who could have prevented that shot, but was out of position?
When the team plays well, it makes everyone’s job easier, including the goalies. The Oilers had bottom of the league GA 5v5. Since Nov 26 they’re third best in the league for GA 5v5. The goalie w the best SV% in that time had a .943 in his five games.
Trading Jarry may be audacious. But if this team keeps playing as it has since Nov 26, I submit that it may be the key to getting the D or F they need to win the Cup.
I’m not sure there is any trade value in Pickard and I get not wanting to lose him for free, or at all, but they cannot operate on fear of potential future injury.
We have TWO goalies with a history of being starters in this league that can clearly handle a 1A load and, even if they lose Picks, they have the SAME 3G they entered the season with plus a 24-year old on a season long heater putting his name in the conversation.
The Ollers came hard in the third period and it was highly unlucky that they didn’t tie it.
With that said, they earned the ability for luck to work against them with their first 40 minutes of play. I would say “lethargic” more than lack of effort as they generally defended well and “tried”, just couldn’t accomplish anything.
Part of last night was also on management. Being forced to go 11/7 for a few games isn’t the end of the world (although never good when you have to ice a less than ideal lineup because of the cap) but, going down to 10 forwards for a portion of the game (Podz in the box) really wasn’t great for their forward flow.
3 goalies on the roster hurt the team last night.
You hate 3 goalies.
It will pass. We might even bring another asset in if we are lucky.
Yes, it will pass, it will have to as the Oilers need that cap space.
As it turns out, they need it right now – they were forced to play short a forward last night (and the 7th d-man played like 3 minutes) and Podz was out of the game for almost a third of it leaving them with 10 forwards and overtly messing with any sort of flow.
Keeping three goalies may have cost a point or two in the standings last night.
I believe Pickard as all but zero trade value and there is even a chance he clears waivers – at the most, we are talking about a C prospect or 6th/7th round pick at some point, right?
I’ll take the coach having 12 forwards available to him but that’s me.
Given you’ve seen Tomkins play more than most, how do you think he’d fare in the NHL should he be inserted into the lineup?
I don’t know if I can really say as I’m far from a goalie expert.
We’ve seem countless times over the years that a “non real prospect” AHL goalie can come in and throw in a solid NHL performance at any time – we’ve seen the Oilers goalied by no-names and journeymen. In that regard, sure Tomkins could give a start here or there and maybe even win a game.
I’m not sure I’d want him playing more than a pure back-up would.
With that said, if they lost Pickard and a goalie got hurt, I am fully comfortable with running with our other NHL goalie night in and night out in the playoffs which is likely the case anyways (they won”t tandem in the playoffs, I wouldn’t think).
Even after the lethargic start the first period was even, it was the second where disaster struck(better known as Darnell Nurse) the third was all Oilers where they should have won it. Jake Allen was lucky that Oilers flubbed their chances. Jarry gave them the chance to win. And of course they’re missing Leon & Kapanen not to mention managements difficulties. Plenty of factors in last nights one goal loss.
It should also be noted that the Devils coach said that he thought the first two periods, from a checking defensive stand point, it was the best his team has played for a long time.
I agree with your first point. It was a sleepwalk, and I almost turned the game off for boredom.
This team is used to the line blender. Three goalies and Drai away, Podz out could have meant more opportunities for the likes of Savoy, Howard, etc to play with McD, RNH.
I’m not sure if the 3-goalie-body-problem is a reason for sleepy play. I do think luck and maybe bad ice played a role. Good hands could not get the puck on sticks, let alone in the spaces Allen allowed (yes, he played a strong game, but there was a lot of empty net that Oilers scorers couldn’t own). The fumbles w pucks and missed opportunities seemed to my eye to be a thing for both teams.
Nurse’s line change faux pas is something different. Or sleepwalking of a higher (lower) order?
Howard played 43 seconds with Nuge and 22 seconds with McDavid.
Savoie did play 4 minutes (aggregate) with Nuge/McDavid (may be some overlap, didnt’ delve in to that detail).
Guess what? The coach can play those kids with McDavid and Nuge any time he wants to.
The three goalies on the roster did not lead to sleepy play, of course. At the same time, the coach was FORCED to ice less than a full forward group and then as forced to play almost a third of the game down to 10 available forwards – I don’t think this helped the flow of the offence.