The New Jersey Devils come to town looking like they’ve been rode hard and put away wet. Now it don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that swing, but these Oilers are looking fine. Can Edmonton win three games in a row for the first time this season?
Early, North Jersey industrial skyline
I’m a all-set Cobra Jet, creepin’ through the nighttime
Gotta find a gas station, gotta find a payphone
This turnpike sure is spooky at night when you’re all alone
Gotta hit the gas, baby, I’m runnin’ late
This New Jersey in the mornin’ like a lunar landscape
-Bruce Springsteen, Open All Night
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1) 1-0-0
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 5-2-2, 12 points in nine games
- Season Record: 25-17-8, 58 points in 50 games
In his most recent 10 games, center Curtis Lazar is scoring 2.39 points-60. Now it’s in just 75 minutes, but the Oilers fourth line is delivering a 57 percent share (55 expected) in those minutes. Here is the breakdown since December 15:
- 97 and 29: 5-4, 56 pct (45 mins)
- McDavid: 12-6, 67 pct (234 mins)
- Draisaitl: 9-10, 47 pct (200 mins)
- Lazar: 4-2, 67 pct (74 mins)
- The rest: 5-9, 36 pct (280 mins)
In a grand example of crawling from the wreckage, Lazar is helping the team’s bottom six in outscoring. Now, it’s a small sample size for sure, but he’s winning faceoffs, posting some crooked offensive numbers and generally making himself useful. That’s a positive turn. Nuge is 2-1 in 40 minutes away from the Glimmer Twins (all numbers via Natural Stat Trick) and there’s some hope here. Finally.
Lots of talk about Darnell Nurse in yesterday’s comments section. He has some intereesting moments, but offers several valuable things to the roster. Nurse has always been a solid five-on-five scorer from the defense, something this group of Oilers has covered well. He also plays monster minutes, and that’s high value for any team.
This season, Nurse’s five-on-five goal share is 45 percent, 51 expected. When on the ice with both 97 and 29, it’s 5-3 goals at five-on-five, 63 percent. Solo McDavid 12-8, 60 percent and 57 expected. That’s versus tough competition and includes the entire season. With Draisaitl solo, 46 percent and 47 expected. A little wobble there, but those numbers should regress as the season wears along. With Lazar? 0-3 goals but 51 expected. With Nuge? 1-1 goals, 44 expected.
Here’s a curious areas. Nurse is 6-15, 29 percent in a whopping 284 minutes with the bottom six outside Lazar and Nuge. Ekholm with the dregs? 143 minutes, 6-6 goals. I think Bouchard is a major lift, and a RH veteran partner for Nurse would help enormously. Hopefully it’s Walman.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable with Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick. Oilers, college and NFL football, and more. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
That was a lame duck effort, if I’ve ever seen one.
The officials phoned it in, as well.
Also, what is with the adverse reaction to winning a 3rd game in a row? Other than on the PP, NJ barely showed up, themselves.
I’m glad I didn’t spend the $350.00+ it would cost (for just me) to attend a game.in Edmonton. I feel for those who made the effort and expense to attend this game.
Nuge as 2C 2-5, -28% CRel, xGF 26.8% against a very very lackluster Devils team.
Don’t try to shoehorn a player into a role he can’t play anymore.
Leave him with McDavid. It is the way.
Except for the games that he plays well in the role, right?
Lots of players had a poor game, below their expected level of play. Every player has poor games.
I would also suggest that Nuge would be 3C with Drai at 2C if he’s moved off the wing.
Oh, well – unlucky to not tie that one up in the third.
Frustrating they came out without great legs and everything being a bit off with the puck – defended OK but were definitely off.
Oh well, those nights happen.
Back at er on Thursday.
We last beat Jake Allen in Dec of 2022. He’s 5-0 against us since then (one of those wins coming while he was with Montréal).
9 goals on our last 147 shots on him. It may just be my selective memory combined with recency bias, but I feel like we’ve been shooting into his pads and crest for years.
That period was ridiculous. period.
Good Lord.
Outscore the opponent 12-3 over four games, and the record is 2-2.
Perhaps the most frustrating McDavid era team yet.
No the one with Ty Rattie on the top line was by far a worse experience for Oiler fans.
I knew what to expect from the RatMan, God bless him. I wasn’t frustrated by that group; you got exactly what was on the tin.
But this team REFUSES to get on a roll to just put any true seperation with demonstrably lesser teams.
GAH!
Draisaitl may be the key
Jersey seems incredibly lucky.
Noticing a bit of a trend of small, poor decisions with Howard. Whether it’s skating routes, positioning along the wall, decisions on when to carry and when to pass on transition or other things, he hasn’t clicked yet. Could just be a byproduct of his dominance in the AHL and not being able to be the same focal point in the NHL. Needs to figure out how to integrate, but I’m sure it’ll come!
Third period has been quite dominant – a lot of pucks just an inch away from being banged in.
Keep this up through the last 8 minutes and they’ll bury one.
shots 11-0 thru 13 mins
Terrible finish by Hyman there. Straight back across the net into his chest.
Hyman has to go short side on that one – not a great one-timer shot.
Wow, this is unbelievable
Oilers finally and some life but its starting to feel like one of those games where it just isn’t going to happen – still hoping though.
What is going on with these guys tonight? No one can control the puck worth a lick
Or they aren’t ready to receive a pass.
Sleepy team tonight. Too bad.
Nurse’s expected (XG%) goals is better than his actual goals (GF%) which indicates that the team should either be scoring more or preventing more goals while Nurse is on the ice based on the “typical” shots or chances that are allowed.
Single plays or mistakes CAN lead directly to goals and that change on the fly by Nurse was a direct example that led to the 2nd NJ goal.
The other thing that Nurse is failing at is zone entry prevention. If he used his frame effectively, he could ride opponents into the walls and stop the entries or give his partners the time to go back and retrieve the dump-ins.
Instead he keeps flailing at the pucks with a one handed wide sweep of his stick every damn time. It’s like a boxer who uses a roundhouse punch every time and the opponents know it. Expect it. And. Dodge it. Every. Single. Time.
A ten year NHL defenceman who has never learned to use his stick properly.
Hopefully Bouchard will awake from his NyQuil hangover for the final 20 minutes
Odd that one player was picked out of a large group of lethargic players…
Jeebuz this team passes up way too many open looks. Did they see the first and only goal?#harlemglobetrotterhockey
Thanks the gords Drais’ absence coincided with these match ups. Ugh
A rather unattractive 2 periods of hockey – perhaps they can pull this one out in the final 20 minutes
Be nice if we win a few puck battles. 9 shots in two periods pretty pathetic. Not a fan of 11/7 but we likely see it for another game yet. Paying a price for carrying 3 goalies
Yes, a rookie call up would definitely fix whatever gameplan Knoblauch is deploying.
Definitely possible that a young skilled forward full of confidence and energy could have made a play made a difference on a one-goal game.
That was the 6th game in 9 nights for these forwards – there were only 10 available for 1/6 of the game too.
Pass around the smelling salts in intermission. Jarry only reason we are in this one
This is such a bad effort tonight… I’m questioning the entertainment value of this even though it’s a close game…
Oilers all kinds of discombobulated.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poor game for Allen against the Oilers.
Looking out of sorts but can cut them some slack with all the line up changes and the ridiculous podz misconduct. Bouchard is having one of “those” nights.
Oilers will never score another PP goal.
Hopefully they shoot the puck on this PP.
If coach puts Walman statue to start pp1 again I’m out
Bye.
You’re lovely
What a save, after amateurish defending of a 2 on 1 by Bouch.
Shoot the dadgum puck!!
Nurse changes and allows the 2nd goal and then has a clear lane a man in front and skates around the net. Just shoot the f’ing puck!!!!
Oilers do not match up well against the Devils. They are a fast, aggressive forechecking team. Oilers look “plodding” tonight.
You are giving the Devils too much credit. This is entirely self inflicted, comically bad execution by the Oil
Walman standing completely stagnant with the stick half cocked. Has he been told to be a Drai statue over there? It’s like they are playing 4 on 4 with him out there? This plan is not working. Man these coaches can be stubborn sometimes
Ranford out of retirement.
Billy Ranford, is that you?
That save will make the highlight reels
A PP goal would be just fine.
Can’t defer to McDavid the whole powerplay
Let me try again. Gotta say, I’m getting a little frustrated with Howard’s inability to keep control of the puck and make plays
Why do they always seem to give back the lead right after tying the score?
ugh…
Nurse with a completely unaware change at the worst time. Maybe look up after getting untangled?!!!
Yeah he won’t get a minus but that goal was on him.
Who was the center on the ice when the kids got points on that goal?
Was about to say the Oilers would never score again…
The goal against started when Mangiapane decides to backhand the puck to no one in the middle of the ice on the O zone, after making a good play to gain the zone and allow for a change. Starts the rush the other way and he’s out of the play, Oilers on their heels until the eventual goal. When he made that play I immediately groaned, why didn’t he just put it in deep?
Why are they always such dog dodo against the Devils and Islanders?! Every year!
Gotta say I am getting a little frustrated with Savoie’s inability to finish
Great tip there.
That worked
You were saying lol
You need to say this from now on. Always.
I guess he didn’t actually finish it though…
You should have said this earlier! 🙂
Now do Howard and Frederic.
Almost like the Oilers don’t really feel inspired to put too much effort to get 3 wins in a row.
Not a great goal on Jarry – not terrible – Skinner would get evisciarted by the fanbase for it.
Stu had a substantial body of evidence behind him. Ranting between +1 and -1 goals above expected per game is a wild range. If I remember the stat correctly..
Nice to see Savoie with a shift on the top line.