Evan Bouchard scored the overtime winner last night, giving the Oilers win No. 49 on the season and keeping the dream of a Pacific Division and western conference crown intact. The club will need some help from the Seattle Kraken, and take care of the San Jose Sharks later this week, but this is no pipe dream. What a run!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?
- DNB: Top seed in West and ‘momentum’ for playoffs
- Lowetide: How a balanced Oilers roster is finally uniting the fan base
- Lowetide: Who’s the Oilers’ best player outside the NHL? It’s a tough call
- Lowetide: Which Oilers’ minor leaguers could help in the playoffs?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto’s future may hinge on 2023 NHL playoffs
- Lowetide: 5 ways Oilers’ Mattias Ekholm has delivered since trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers post an incredible March with playoffs in sight
- DNB: The Oilers ‘found a way’ against the Kings
- Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 4-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
- April results: 5-0-0, 10 points in five games
- March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 49-23-9, 107 points in 81 games
The Oilers won 50 times in 1984, 1986 and 1987. Edmonton won 49 games in 1985 and in 2022, plus this season. Stanley visited in 1984, 1985, 1987. This is going to be one helluva ride through spring and summer 2023. The team is 29-7-7 since January 1.
GOALTENDING AND DEFENSE
Stuart Skinner was outstanding in this game, one in which he tied Grant Fuhr’s Oilers record for most wins by a rookie goaltender. He stopped Nathan MacKinnon several times on good looks and both Mikko Rantanen and Evan Rodrigues on multiple chances. His .926 five-on-five save percentage ranks No. 10 among NHL goalies with 1000+ minutes played this season.
Darnell Nurse is playing rock solid hockey, physical, aware, closing gaps and displaying strong suppression skills by moving the puck out of danger. Seems more sure these days, and this was with a rookie partner in Vincent Desharnais. I thought Desharnais played well, calm feet, moved the puck out effectively. A good night for this pairing. I don’t know what his outer marker is, but ‘third-pairing defenseman’ is what we’ll go with until further notice. He looked capable, though.
Mattias Ekholm is a strong defensive player, but it was his offense that took center stage. His first-period goal showed impressive shooting power and his pass to spring McDavid later showed creativity and that he already understands that playing with greatness means getting. him. the. puck. Evan Bouchard scored the winner in overtime, showing patience and prudence. He had a takeaway, two blocked shots and hit somebody. Finishing the season with a flourish.
Brett Kulak hat one shot, one HDSC, blocked a couple of shots, but what I noticed is how effective he is with that foot speed. Closes gaps in a quick hurry, recognizes danger. In terms of cap hit he’s a luxury as a third-pairing option, but it’s sure nice to have him there. Philip Broberg is using his shot more recently, puck going in the net sometimes does that for a young player. He still looks like a yearling at times defensively, but has all the tools. He’s a more substantial player now than Matt Greene was in 2006 spring in my opinion.
FORWARDS
Leon Draisaitl picked up an assist and his passing was a major threat all game long, several lovely passes to 97. The Kane-29-Yamamoto line is up to 159 minutes at five-on-five this season, with a 10-6 goal share and an expected goals share of 47 percent. It is common for Leon’s actual goals-for total to outpace expectations. If this line holds, it helps the rest of the batting order. Evander Kane was ruthless in his physical play, he got some of the Avs off their game with his hits and invasions of space. Valuable player now, even more valuable in the postseason if he can outscore and stay out of the box. Kailer Yamamoto has gone five games without a point, he has had six HDSC in those five games but none in the last two. He needs to post offense.
Connor McDavid was on fire to my eye, seven shots and two HDSC. He got a breakaway but the puck slip slided away, the pump don’t work and the vandals took the handle. Damndest thing. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two shots, a HDSC and a takeaway, I thought he played well but the Avalanche also played him well. That goes for the entire Colorado PK. Smart team, smart men on that team. Zach Hyman was up to his usual shenanigans, seven shots, two HDSC, a couple of rebound attempts, two penalties drawn, takeaway, stole second base and got an outfield assist.
Ryan McLeod is already something and he may one day be something else. His line had a 91 percent expected goal share and he had an immediate impact. An assist on the Ekholm goal was the big item, but his speed was noticeable and gave Colorado another difficult forward to deal with on the night. Warren Foegele picked up an assist, but also gave the puck away. The move I found galling came in the first when he received the puck near his blue line for a defenseman, and bolted back toward his own net. Seeing he was cut off, Foegele cranked it along the glass. It was intercepted, and much Colorado merriment ensued. Foegele has improved a great deal this season, but that can’t happen. Bad Warren. Bad bad Warren. Derek Ryan had two HDSC, made several smart veteran plays and generally gave his line a lift and a defensive conscience. He isn’t Craig Ramsay, but he is as smart. That’s as high a compliment as I can pay. It’s like if Billy Moores played in the NHL. This guy will coach one day.
Nick Bjugstad was part of the weird GA sequence, the main part, but that’s such a flukey play I can’t get riled up about it. He had four shots, including a HDSC, and led Oilers forwards with 2:28 on the power play. I like him, knew I would. Mattias Janmark also spent two minutes on the PK, had a HDSC and a shot, he’s got into a wraparound streak, I think everyone sees him coming by now. Klim Kostin took a POG penalty early in the second period and played less than two minutes over the last 40 minutes. The coaching staff is trying to get him to show more discipline, pretty sure. I think Kostin might come out for Dylan Holloway once playoff time arrives.
THOUGHTS
I didn’t know if the Oilers would win, but expected the team to make things tough for Colorado early. The opposite happened, in fact. The Avalanche got a lucky goal but were full measure for it to my eye. Edmonton’s quick response allowed both teams to settle in to what was a most enjoyable game. I was especially impressed by Denver’s PK attack and suspect the only error on the night for the coaching staff was giving Edmonton’s Jay Woodcroft video evidence he can pore over.
This team is ready and several young players are going to play important roles. We saw Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod deliver last night, but I think Kailer Yamamoto must also join the party more often. Philip Broberg will contribute, but right now Yamamoto isn’t cashing these cherry passes. He must once the playoffs begin.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’ll spend plenty of time talking Oilers, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to go over last night’s game, the chance to win the division and conference, and the playoffs to come. We’ll talk Jays, NFL draft and more! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
The Oilers and Avs are similar in that they are skill speed teams at heart. When the Avs get everyone back (Landeskog being the wildcard as to effectiveness) the forward groups are pretty even, except the Oilers have the best player there is
I’m not sure how fully recovered Leon is. If he’s not 100% I think MacKinnon is more dangerous because of his speed and how he uses it to create looks for himself and his ability to get super dangerous shots off without much help or space . It is very hard to stop that
The D groups are fairly even, except they have the best player. As a group they are better puck movers and their breakout is insane as we saw last night before the 3 in 4 started to kick in later. But they have small players, that can be a vulnerability
If health stays and things don’t go haywire these two should be meeting again soon. The teams are so even, the Oilers much improved and don’t have two key players seriously hurt like playoffs last, so for me the series will come down to one thing. Coaching
Bednar is really good. He has them doing all the things I always wish for, namely tactically creating all those high quality scoring chances. They are really good at getting players open and clean and that’s why I think they have such good HD goal numbers, better than the chances number, they are in great position to finish them
The Oilers are getting HD chances, but I still don’t see them tactically setting them up consistently. A lot of it is Connor and Leon riffing. Why this matters is that in tight games, the Oilers attack relies on a lot of energy but also lucky banging, jam plays, in really close with no chance to finish other than lucky gaps etc
Connor had trouble finding plays and was skating in too close to defenders a lot so also didn’t have much shooting lane. He’s been doing that quite a bit lately. The Avs had more slot shots, I think that’s because they have a plan of how to set it up. Maybe because they don’t have Connor and Leon, the Bruins either, they have to be more strategic
Same on PP. Couldn’t score in a huge game with 4 minute PP. Lots of looking and perimeter, but they had no lanes so forced some low percentage plays. If there is a plan they couldn’t do it. I don’t think there is a plan, a set of tactics, to handle teams just collapsing to the net. When they did score there was room to wheel
What I am saying is that when they have room and things open up they can hammer teams. When that doesn’t happen they aren’t nearly as dangerous. This is what the best teams can do, stay dangerous as a team, regardless of the mud. Connor and Leon are always dangerous, but get smothered in such games. I thought MacKinnon had the better looks and had a post, it’s tactics driven
So coaches. Bednar plays us well and definitely game plans Connor. I don’t see that from Woody. Maybe he wants team D, it’s just that MacKinnon and Makar are so fast and dangerous and Makar creates so much havoc with his movement. The Avs slow Connor down. I don’t see us slowing those 2 down or being very aggressive on Makar. He will take you apart if given time and space. Our guys don’t get time and space or much good to shoot at
I think the Oilers can beat the Avs, but unless Woody comes up with something more, I’m not sure. They need to be more tactical and rely less on skill alone when there is no room or lanes. They need several set plays for a PP with no space in front of the net, to open someone up in a good scoring position
They have to get on the smaller Avs D quickly and not let them move the puck, and punish them physically and tire them. Kane had them rushing out of fear, perfect. That means a timed organized fast forecheck. They cannot let Makar freelance. Whomever is on him should get right after him, give him no time and stay below him. Like they do to Connor
They have to get in front of them in the neutral zone, like they do to us, don’t allow them to wind up or have an easy time to our blue line
If Woody can do that, I think Connor tips the scales. If not, it will take luck. I prefer specific tactics so they don’t start forcing things and taking risks. Which they always do, did last night, sometimes it works but that’s not the way to try to win a Cup. Or two. Take as much luck out as possible, take away what your opponent is best at, and let Connor put you over
Since Jan 1st, at 5v5 the Oilers are 6th in HDGF%, the Avalanche are 10th.
In all situations (since Jan 1st) the Oilers are 2nd in HDGF%, the Avalanche are 13th.
It’s late so I’ll just put the number I had below. Since March 6th when this version of the Oilers was formed, at 5v5 the Oilers are 7th in HDGF% and the Avs 2nd
Another two to note
HDSH%
Oil 23rd
Avs 4th
HDSV%
Oil 12th
Avs 5th
Why March 6? Ekholm was acquired Feb 28th and played 3 games before March 6. Bjugstand was acquired March 2nd and played 2. The trade deadline itself was over on March 3.
Why March 6?
Nice analysis.
The Avs do play an effective system which is evident when you can subtract (Lehkonen, Landeskog, Makar, and Manson) and plug in Jack Johnson and a 34-year-old Brad Hunt along with 2 pedestrian looking bottom lines and still keep the game close.
Hopefully Bednar’s shown his hand with their PK strategy for Woody to analyze and counter.
Makar’s a concern if we see them in a series. It’s really difficult to contain those elite #1 d, more so than even shutting down 97…
Makar’s good for nearly 30 minutes per game and can turn a nothing situation into a quick counter attack in transition.
Makar had 9 points to McDavid’s 7 in the last series.
He’s also really difficult to hit on the forecheck.
Schmitty had an .872 on the series vs Francouz .908, so they had better goaltending even with their backup.
This time around with team health factored in, the relative additions and subtractions on each roster, it’ll be a better matchup should we play them in the conference finals.
It will. My concern is that without so many players the Avs are posting better numbers in a lot of key 5v5 metrics. This was what surprised me after our strong run
I’ll say again despite our good HDGF% I wonder if it is pumped by the easy games. I don’t see in many tight games a consistent attack strategy in the O zone. Connor and Leon together can attack and riff
Apart I don’t think they have the right or enough wingers that can do that. Those players need a plan to follow so something dangerous happens when nothing is there, to consistently get to a place where the Duo can get them the puck, or vice versa
Georgexs posted this for you earlier in the evening, you must have missed it.
“Also, during that stretch COL has played 19 games, only 6 against playoff teams. Record against playoff teams 3-2-1.
EDM has played 17 games, 9 against playoff teams. Record against playoff teams: 7-1-1.”
And I really don’t understand you picking March 6th. That is not when this version of the Oilers was formed.
It seems like an arbitrary date, but it’s more than that. It actually removes dominant post-Ekholm wins by the Oilers (for instance convincing wins over Toronto and Winnipeg where the HDCF/A were 30-6 for the Oilers at 5v5).
Why?
I disagree on the PP. It is far more than 97+29 freelancing. 97, 29 and 93 play a rotating triangle while 2 patrols the point and 18 works net front. 97 is constantly in motion attacking space while the others fill gaps and/or complete their rotation. There was a great Bouch shot set up off of this. This PP has many set looks but when things get chaotic they can put the other team on a carousel and look out.
it looks to me at 5v5 they cycle well in the corners as a two man unit and attack the goal line. When they are in trouble they use the point and go D to D put it in the other corner and do it again. With the end goal being to eventually come out of the corner to get to the slot. If the top side gets shut down the drop and pick to the D starts it again.
loved the personnel assessment. Agreed on each team has the best players at D or F. The two are worthy opponents and it is going to come down to who is better prepared.
Being injured in camp, then going on IR in November, and LTIR for a month in January certainly doesn’t help either. Kailer having to restart his season effectively 3 times.to get back up to game speed and timing have possibly contributed to reduced performance and production.
Kane was just under a point a game last season and for the first 14 games this season before his wrist injury. Comes back from the wrist and gets 6 points in 10 games, then out with the rib injury and has 8 points in the 16 games since his second return. Kane was getting first unit PP time last season and some at the start of this season with Hyman generally starting with the first unit, then Kane often coming out after 45 seconds or so (for the first 14 games before his injury Kane played almost as much PP time with McDavid as did Hyman). But with his absence and with the PP clicking so well, Hyman has entrenched himself for almost the full time period with the rest of the first unit, so Kane has had only 10 minutes with the first unit in his 26 games in 2023.
You must remember of course Kane and Yamamotos’s injuries don’t count because they play for the Oilers. Injuries only matter if they happen to Colorado, LA, Dallas, Seattle…. Then injuries mean whatever team will beat the Oilers because – well that’s just how it works.
Dom’s updated ranking metrology has Darnell Nurse as a #1 d-man, not just a top pari guy but a #1 guy – of course, this makes sense as there is a little doubt he’s a top 32 d-man in the league.
https://theathletic.com/4396412/2023/04/12/nhl-advanced-stats-offensive-defensive-rating/
When a player has all his teeth like pretty boy Coronato you know he plays in a soft league.
Esposito with a great look from the half walk, goes cross ice to the trailer, Alex Peters, perfect pass, Peters walks in to the top of the circles and buries the 3-1 goal.
Great post, as per usual. Thank you!
The panel was extra spicy on the Phlegms pregame.
Laoive with his 25th – Kemp from the side boards right on the blue across to Lavoie in the centre of the blue line and he ripped it home from distance.
I love what the Oilers we doing and believe they are a very good team. I felt they had become the best team in the west. I have had to accept after looking at all those stats that the Avs still are
It takes years for teams to get their strategies down and perfected and the Avs started that process before the Oilers. They have had their key pieces and especially coach in place longer. So I shouldn’t be surprised that they still dominate so many metrics over us
A few more since March 6
5v5 GF/G
Oil 2.64
Avs 2.63
5v4 GF/G
Oil .88
Avs .89
Total GF/G
Oil 4.23
Avs 3.94
Total GA/G
Oil 2.47
Avs 2.47
The Oilers GF/G is pumped by the shorties. They all count, but that’s not goals you want to count on. The Avs have drawn a fair bit more penalties as well 62 vs 46 in 2 extra games. Their conversion rate is lower, but still over 30%
This with missing Makar for a fair number of games. It seems goaltending is a wash if Skinner can play and keeps his head together. If both teams starters have trouble who knows?
Colorado was also missing Landeskog, Lehkkonen, Manson and Francouz for all those games and Byram for quite a few,
All are expected back for the playoffs.
Yes I’m going annoy everyone with my analysis. I’m going to blow Hrudey out of the water
Button too
True.
Your copy/paste skills are tremendous, second only to your amazing dysfunction as relating to seeking negative attention by incessantly and obsessively posting negativity on a hockey blog that promotes inclysivity and love. Sad sad sad little man.
You go girl! 🤣🤣🤣
So the Oilers have scored and given up goals identically to the Avs in the last 5 weeks. Except for SH goals, which the Oilers have way more or. And that’s bad because Makar has missed 7 of the Avs 19 games.
Is that a fair summary of your comment?
And why on earth March 6th?
I think it’s fair to say the Avs are the favourites, but the Oilers can beat them. Injuries will play a pivotal role. How healthy is Makar?
Great assessment – really enjoyed this. Thanks!
King of a quick strike 2 on 2 off. won board battle, Bourgault fakes the pass across Bouchard-style and snaps one – misses wide short side but it comes out the far side and Captain Malone puts in in the empty net for a 1-0 lead
Henderson ties it right back up, Oilers style – Lavoie may have cheated down low in the defensive zone too much helping Peters off the rush and the point man had all sorts of room and I think the shot was deflected.
Islanders clinch and the Penguins will not play in the post season for the first time since Sid was a rookie.
Marek speculating today that the Penguins who are no longer owned by Mario might try and move the last two years on his contract to kick start a rebuild,
Wow. Islanders clinch the last available playoff spot. Penguins eliminated.
First time in 16 years, apparently, that the Pens haven’t made the postseason
Passing of the torch? Both Washinngton and Pittsburgh ageing out a bit? Next Tampa I think,and maybe next year or more likely the year after, Boston?
A fun fact about the NCAA champion Quinnipiac team.
Fully 14 of the team roster are graduates of the BCJHL.
Quite a pipeline.
https://www.timescolonist.com/sports/bchl-basks-in-reflected-glory-of-ncaa-sweet-16-while-preparing-for-its-own-playoffs-6751411
Wait… how does this reflect badly on the Oilers?
BCJHL grad Skyler Brind A’Mour won’t sign with the Oilers?
Ah yes because he sees he may not have a direct line to the NHL. So his potential being “lower” means the Oilers are too good for him – is that what you are saying?
It is an Oiler failure now to be too good to have a “possible” NHL level player sign with them?
Convolutions, convolutions convolutions. How do you keep track of which way is up anymore?
Confirmed that Demers is the only change for the Condors – Savoie and Niemo both remain out.
I am as excited as anyone about our team playing so well. I started looking at stats on NST. We’ve been the hottest team heading into the playoffs. It seemed natural we’d be running the best numbers along with that
The D play has tightened up so much the season stats are misleading. I wanted to find the turn. So I went to January, nope not yet. Feb, nope not yet. March nope, not yet
So I went to the trade deadline using March 6 so the cavalry had arrived. League wide rankings. It wasn’t as dominating as I assumed. I don’t like expected stats, I like what went into the bank. It is a small sample but the last weeks heading into playoffs
I’ll compare to the Avs and Kniggets because I see them as most dangerous
GP Oilers 17 Avs 19 VK 18
Wins 15 (tied 1st with Avs)
Points 31 (tied 1st with Avs)
CF% 9 (Avs 4th, VK 28th)
FF% 11 (Avs 5th, VK 27th)
SF% 12 (Avs 7th, VK 23rd)
GF% 6 (Avs 5th, VK 8th)
SCF% 10 (Avs 6th, VK 27th)
HDCF% 5 (Avs 12th, VK18th)
HDGF% 7 (Avs 2nd, VK 5th)
HDSH% 23 (Avs 4th, VK 3rd)
HDSV% 12 (Avs 5th, VK 7th)
SH% 7 (Avs 9th, VK 6th)
SV% 8 (Avs 12th, VK 5th)
Not what I expected. The Oilers were ‘finding ways to win’, but not dominating the various stats as I expected. The goalies didn’t let them down
It looks to me like Vegas is hot, high SH% and SV%, their other metrics are weak. I would pick that as strong heading to playoffs
Colorado hasn’t dropped as much as I thought. They actually are better in every metric except HDCF% (better in HDGF%) SH% and SV%
I meant not strong for VK
I’m not sure how you went about this, but I don’t agree with what you’re saying here. The turning point was around Jan 1st (or Christmas, as Woodcroft has referenced a few times).
We should also note that you appear to be looking only at 5v5 numbers here. That is the largest game state, and a championship team clearly needs to be strong there.
At the same time, special teams are very important. They don’t go away in the playoffs. The Oilers also excel there, so I don’t know why anyone would try to downplay their importance.
Since Jan. 1st the Oilers have been very damn good in all the metrics you’re looking at.
The team overall:
43 games, 29-7-7 65PTS. .762 points% which is 2nd in in the league to Boston (COL .711 4th, VEG .679 6th)
First at 5v5 (Oilers rank, I didn’t check COL and VEG for everything):
CF% 4th
FF% 6th
SF% 7th
GF% 5th
SCF% 3rd
HDCF% 2nd
HDGF% 6th
SH% 8th
SV% 16th
Now overall:
CF% 4th
FF% 4th
SF% 7th
GF% 2nd
SCF% 3rd
HDCF% 1st
HDGF% 2nd
SH% 1st
SV% 12th
The 5v5 numbers look very good. The overall ones look even better. That’s because special teams are a major Oilers strength (even though they’re also very good at 5v5).
PP
GF/60 1st (13.14)
GA/60 16th (1.19)
44GF-4GA
+40 goals, or +11.95 goals/60
PK
GF/60 2nd (3.29)
GA/60 16th (6.58)
13GF-26GA
-13 goals or -3.29 goals/60
So the Oilers are +27 (in 43 games) on special teams.
They are also +29 at 5v5.
And they’re +56 overall (in the 43 games).
In overall goal differential Boston remains the class of the league at +69 (45 games) since Jan. 1st. Colorado is 3rd at +45 (45 games) compared to the Oilers +56 in 43 games. Vegas was +22 in 42 games.
I’ll look tomorrow as to what I wasn’t seeing again until the deadline
I also forgot to put 5v5
Why I looked at 5v5 is the PP isn’t reliable. We saw it last night. They could only score once there was enough room. Reg time they couldn’t figure out how to open them up
This is what I saw last playoffs at key times. Remember the 5v3 they couldn’t cash? It may go differently this year, maybe not. I think the coaches think they have so much skill they let them figure it out
What I see is they aren’t as creative, have trouble creating HQ looks, and force lower danger plays when it gets clogged net front. Sometimes it works
They can and I want to see them get to being better 5v5 and adding the PP to that. The date range I took from NST doesn’t favour us against the main western rival and it’s most recent
I can’t see what metric I was thinking about yesterday which I had as the ‘turn’. I’ll cool my jets when I have an idea next time and wait until I’m not in the middle of a hectic workday and be more careful with the details
Since Jan 1 they of course started playing better, I was looking stats that seemed to match their win loss run
It seems if the Oilers play the Kings its close to a lock that the series will open on Monday (M/W/F) due to the Staples Center being locked in for the Clippers on Thursday and Saturday (20/22).
Craig Button takes alot of heat on hear as an “Oilers Hater” which I don’t necessarily buy in to (although I may be biased as I do get to chat with him sporadically as he plays pickelball two blocks from my house and works out at the same gym as me) but he did state that Skinner may be his #1 vote on his Calder ballet (he’s debating between him and Berniers and will have Power 3rd).
OP, normally I agree with your take on things but I’ll disagree on this one. Not sure if hate is the right word but he surely does not like the Oilers. To wit, a few weeks ago on getting quizzed which team is the best in the Pacific he unequivocally stated “LA Kings” are the best especially with their new additions in Korpisalo and Gavrikov, they will top the Pacific. He was also pretty livid that Holland traded for Ekholm instead of Chychrun when it was pretty clear who was more appropriate for the Oil.
Even in a recent piece on TSN, when asked if Oilers and Avalanche were the best of the west, he said “all the teams are good” and with some reluctance finally agreed that if Avalanche get healthy, they will be the team to beat.
I know LT likes the guy but I’m not on that train.
I saw the TSN piece and he even went so far as to imply that the Jets are just as good. You can sure that if the Flames made it in he would have them as the favourite. He is just HH in a nice suit – always trolling the Oilers.
My suit is much nicer.
That mirror beneath the bridge must be pretty dirty…..
Highly doubtful.
You think he wears nice suits?
The suit isn’t THAT nice….
A few weeks ago, the Oilers couldn’t make up any ground not he Kings as they were even hotter than the Oilers at the time, Korpsal was on a heater and Gavrikov was like 80% goal share with great underlying metrics as a King – the Kings were ahead of the Oilers in the standings.
On deadline day, most were quite happy with Ekholm but there were many that would have preferred Chychrun.
Neither of those were unrealistic takes at the time.
I actually respect Button for coming on TSN Edmonton and not catering his opinions to the listernership. No offence to the other out of market regulars but I’m not sure the opinions of Dreger, Noodles, Johnston, Johnson, etc. on the Oilers are necessarily consistent on other networks.
Button was ripping on Sutter/Treliving yesterday…
Sleeping with enemy first it’s Peplinski and now Buttons. Buttons trolls Oilers every chance he gets it’s all about Clicks. I don’t think you relize how much of a rivalry and hate the 2 City’s and Teams had in the 70’s 80s 90’s.
I am quite aware.
I’ve had many a 2-3 minute conversation with Button re: Oilers matters and have listened to many reasonable takes about the Oilers from him on the radio.
I have listened to him bash the flames many times, including in the last 48 hours.
Yesterday Keith Gretzky did say that Niemo may be back soon, potentially by the weekend – he isn’t in tonight – Demers expected to be the only addition to the Condors’ lineup.
As impressive as this back end of the season run has been, especially the last 1/4, looking at MoneyPucks expected goals for/against for the season this actually looks like a return to the meat rather than a crazy heater.
We’re still bottom of the league for expected goals against. Even more impressive is despite being the best offensive team in the comp we’re also very slightly below our expected goals for.
Idk y’all, the team seems the goods.
On the lottery draft what’s the most spots you can move up is it 10? Also when is the lottery draft held?
https://thehockeywriters.com/guide-2023-nhl-draft-lottery/
Yeah, you can only move up 10 spots so the bottom 11 teams all have a shot. Currently the odds can be found here: https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm (last column to the right)
The lottery will be held Monday, May 8th.
My favourite current stats is the one Bruce has been throwing out there. In the last 8 games, the Oilers have trailed for a TOTAL of 2:38 (in over 430 minutes). They’ve fallen behind four times and tied it up in less than minute every time.
That is WILD?
The game is so much “easier” and less exhausting when you aren’t chasing it (so it seems and so we’ve been told – I’m not out there of course).
Never before in their history have the Oilers held the opposition to 4 goals against in a 6 game stretch. That’s pretty neat too.
This is all utterly insane.
I don’t know if I have seen one player impact a team as much as Ekholm seems to have.
But I also think that for all the verbal from the coach about taking it a day at a time, he also sees the year in segments. I think Leon and 97 do too. I had thought earlier in the season that it looked like an “R&D” phase when the team wasn’t so hot. But they were trying to see what worked. In terms of combos but also in terms of passing, skating. they were playing. The ice was a sandbox for them. Phase 2 was “The Push”, from Christmas. By then they knew what was working and what wasn’t, so they put their foot down and rocketed up the standings. Since the deadline it has been “The Rehearsal”: Acting and playing as if this were already the playoffs. Buttoned down tighter than a duck’s butt. And, by now, in the chance something happens like some bad puck luck, they can pull back into phase 2 and pop a goal when they need it.
Amazing season. Amazing coach. He knows he has a massive machine and knows exactly when to shift gears.
This approach also helps defer some of the pressure of being President’s trophy winners in a walk 🙂
The defence wasn’t balanced or even set and the bottom six was still a work in progress when the season started. This was why I said I would be pleased with a top 8 finish for the team back in September.
Too many ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’ to think this team was a finished product – and no cap room to play with. As you say it was R&D time – especially with Broberg not claiming his spot right off the hop. Puljujarvi was the other disappointment. More questions than you want to see from a true contender.
Slowly but surely Woodcroft sorted and Holland added. Not quite ‘dominant’ but definitely a contender.
All of what you’re saying is correct, but I think Triassic Chelios also has a quality point.
I believe Woodcroft has been trying things and practicing things and dabbling all year long (through the team struggling relative to expectations) with an eye to the playoffs.
There’ve been legitimate struggles too, but I think the coach and team have been very confident that they could turn it on and win games when they needed to (that to say I highly doubt the coaches and players worried in December over missing the playoffs, as many fans clearly did).
You’re right that the D wasn’t balanced, and that the bottom 6 was a work in progress, but I also think Woodcroft and his staff came into camp with a plan for the season, and have generally stuck to it with impressive success through the year. (hopefully the playoff version goes as they wrote it up too 🙂 )
I think we’re both right. Following my logic of three distinct segments, each one roughly correlated to significant player acquisitions, roughly. From R&D to The Push they added VD, Kostin, Janmark. Of course they added again at the deadline. Not having the horses in the early going served a purpose to: what can you make with less? Where are the glaring holes? Identified? Next phase please. Deadline? Same deal. Ratchet up, ratchet up, ratchet up. Coach and GM in lockstep. This is a brilliant regular season.
When the team went from R&D to Push, they also went to 11-7. Thank you Vinny. This served to allow 97 and 29 to move down the lineup. During R&D these two were putting up points and making some spectacular plays. Also giving the puck up and being sloppy on defensive coverage. Again, sandbox. But at 11-7, all of a sudden everyone got a shot to play with a superstar and *boom* bottom six learns to score. Through the Push phase, Leon and Conner were training, and literally pulling, the forward core up to their level. Deadline adds for the Rehearsal phase walked onto an engine going full bore, but shaking loose and loud. They provided the stability to set the responsible trajectory.
Playoffs!
I agree that Woodcroft has spent the whole season getting the team ready for the playoffs. As I said Woodcroft sorted and then Holland added the missing ingredients – in spades as it has turned out.
Only ones I could actively think are Pronger and maybe Roloson because the goalie situation was that bad for the Oilers. Pronger did everything and played an average of 27:59 a night, only McCabe, Kaberle and Lidstrom played more a night and McCabe was #1 with 28:18 a night.
Ekholm has been a blessing. It’s a wonder how some teams like Anaheim and Nashville are just incredible at drafting and developing defencemen.
Some chat on ON that if the Oil make the conference finals, Holland will be a favourite to win the Jim Gregory.
I was not expecting that. Probably because he isn’t exactly lauded in Oil Country. He should be.
We like to think that means we have high standards but it just might mean that we like to hold grudges. 😎
The Oilers could still finish ahead of the Leafs in league standings….. Imagine home ice against the Leafs in the finals?
I would love that matchup OP.
I’m sure Connor, Darnell, Evan, Warren and the rest of the Ontario boys would as well.
I may not breath for 2 weeks if this happens.
It might just be me but I find it hilarious that the flames have called up Dustin Wolf for the last regular season game after they’ve been officially eliminated. No doubt he’ll be back on the Wranglers right after that game.
Their fans on Flames Nation have been clamoring for him to brought up for a few games since Markstrom has played poorly, so they will be happy.
It is very common for teams that have missed the playoffs to give young prospects a taste…nothing hilarious about it.
Connor Zary also set to play for the Flames tonight after signing an ELC.
Correction…Matt Coronato.
I will be cheering for Wolf to get a shutout this will then have the Flames fans in a tizzy plus they won’t move up in the draft. Let’s go Flames!!! I’m anxiously waiting to hear Hrudey, Cassie and Finnegan tell us for the 100th time how many 1 Goal games they lost. My favourite will be the long explanation by Hrudey and also the Panel on how it takes a year or two for a new player to get settled in and feel comfortable. They will pump crybaby Huberdough and the Magic Man Kadri because he disappears for long stretches tires all night long.
It’s hilarious because Wolf should have been called up months ago when both Markstrom and Vladar were in the crapper. There was even a moment where I think it was Markstrom was on a 1 game family leave and they still didn’t play him. If he had gotten in and had even a short run, say 5 games, where he helps close the door on a few points that those two gave away they might have made the playoffs.
Pretty damn funny if you ask me.
I don’t get the Calgary fan bashing of Markstrom he’s been playing almost lights out the last 20-25. Calgary’s a wierd team they remind me a little like the strategy Eakins (swarm) deployed heavy shot volume pinching D most of the game. The Flames pinch so hard with Weeger Rasmus etc that they give-up a lot of two on ones and slot shots. This is why the save pct is way overrated in my opinion.
Lights out? Not from my viewings – full value for his 0.892 over the last 25 games.
If you stop 8 out 10 breakaways are you loser a bum or hero. The Flames give-up a ton of two on ones because they pinch so hard. Did you even read my post. I’ve watched the Flames games and Markstrom is not the reason why they’re not making the playoffs. Ask you Pickelball buddy he’ll say the same thing.
I’ve watched plenty of flames and I fully disagree with your opinion.
His play this year makes Leaky Mikko look like prime Haskek.
Huberdough and Kadri are tied for 108th in scoring yet you wanna blame Markstrom.
Of course I put blame on Markstrom. He’s been quite poor on the season, both subjectively (by watching and the eye test) and objectively – 7th worst goalie in GSAA in the NHL (min 100 minutes) – worse than Campbell.
I repeatedly watched him let in terrible goals to put his team behind and terrible goals in close games, consistently.
Did I ever say the was the only issue with the flames? OF course not and that’s just you creating phantom opinions on others. I responded to a post saying Markstrom has been lights out over the last 20-25 against – again, objectively (and subjectively), false.
Yeah, Markstrom has been brutal this year. Great in his Vancouver years, great last year and awful this year.
Calgary should have easily made the playoffs this year. Lots of reasons they didn’t. They would have made it with one of the following:
So what is the biggest reason the Flames aren’t in the Playoffs. Is it either A. Markstrom or is it B. Huberdough and Kadri sucking the hind tit. Anyone can say it’s a combination of this and that. When your 2 supposed stars who by the way primed out on a last chance huge paydirt contract or tied for 108th in scoring you sure don’t need Columbo to figure this mystery out.
I’m sure they are – I find it hilarious that they are in this place.
They brought up Coronato so he can have the pleasure of playing 3 minutes, getting benched after making a mistake and hearing Sutter talk about how he sucked in the post-game scrum.
“Lucic, get out there and show those youngins how it’s done”
*Lucic gets scored on while on the ice
“You see that intensity in his eyes, Colonado? That’s how it’s done”
LMAO!!
😂🤣😂🤣
A couple of milestones likely to be reached tonight.
If NYI beat MON, the Penguins will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Milan Lucic will play his final NHL game against the Sharks.
Interesting. Has he indicated he’s retiring or are you thinking he won’t be able to get a contract next year?
Very unlikely in my mind that he will be offered a contract but perhaps some bottom feeder offers him a one year cheap deal.
Hometown team Vancouver perhaps?
Last I heard he still lives in Southern California…maybe the Ducks?
You mean like.. the Flames?
So glad that the Flames are using the savings from Lucic’s bloated contract coming off the books to use towards Huberdeau’s bloated contract.
A bloat = bloat dynamic equilibrium! Is there an award for “Biggest Season to Season Point drop”? At least then a Flames player could get an award this year.
I am pretty sure that on more than a few occasions since the Oilers lost in the 2020 play-ins to the Blackhawks, you posted suggesting that the Oilers had not really made the playoffs that season. Based on your wording in this post, seems pretty clear you take it as a fact that the Penguins did make the playoffs that season, despite also having lost during those same play ins. Strange that you only took that stance when considering the Oilers.
Oh fuck nice catch redbird, HH gets roasted on cross examination…48hr timeout HH
Just a passing fancy here: I wonder if late-season success against opponents makes any kind of difference when facing them then soon in the playoffs?
It’s an interesting question. The 2001-02 Detroit Red Wings famously went 1-6-3 in their last 10 regular season games. Then lost their first two playoff games before going 16-5 the rest of the way to their cup win. There is probably something to the psychology but how much would be interesting to know.
I think dustrock was talking about beating specific opponents late in the season and then facing that specific team in the playoffs.
For example, the Oilers have beat LA in their last two games. Does this give the Oilers an advantage going into a potential playoff series?
I doubt there is a definitive answer but it seems like it would be more important to a team without a recent history of success than one that was used to winning in past seasons.
No matter how much you try and shake it there is an element of expectation built in based upon your recent experience. You see it with teams that win long after you shouldn’t expect it and teams that lose when there were greater expectations. Tampa – Toronto series have been like that recently, no?
Quick check cause slow day: Doesn’t answer your head to head question but does answer hottest teams going into the playoffs:
Stats are from March 1-season end.
Format is Best team (pts%) – Cup Winner – Cup winner ranking in that stretch:
2011- Caps – Bruins – 10th
2012- Pens – Kings – 7th
2013- Pens – Hawks – 5th
2014- Bruins – Kings – 6th
2015- Senators – Hawks – 13th
2016- St.Louis – Pens – 2nd
2017- Ducks – Pens – 4th
2018- Jets – Caps – 6th
2019- Lightning – Blues – 6th
Skipping the most recent years cause the dates are all over the place. Possible 2013 is weird.
In short, it doesn’t really matter how you finish going into playoffs.
Injuries are always a factor come playoff time. When relying solely on data for this scenario, the context (not just data) has to be taken into consideration.
Edmonton finished the 20/21 season 17-6-2 over the last 25 games including including 5 wins and no losses against the Jets outscoring them 18-5 in the bargain. We all know what happened in the opening round.
This is obviously only one example. Gathering all the data on this question would take a lot of time, but I suspect that, like with most other analyses of this type, the team with the better record (both in the league and head to head) on average wins more series than it loses. As Defmn mentions, the reasons why upsets occur probably can’t be boiled down to just a few obvious reasons.
Redbird you are probably correct that the better team pre-playoffs wins more often, but I would bet that the correlation is lower than what most people would presume. The amount of randomness in sports, financial markets and life in general is chronically underestimated.
Also think that some of it has to do with how you match up against the team you’re going to be facing. It’s a big deal.
Success agains the Jets in the 2021 season was not indicative of success against the Jets in the playoffs that season…..
One factor that worries me from last night’s game is the strong play of Georgiev. I know there was a handful of us that were really hoping for a Georgiev add over Campbell and were disappointed when Sakic acted so decisively to bring in the young G from the NYR Goaltender Finishing School. I wondered at the time if the Georgiev vs Campbell matchup would be the error that cost this club a Cup Final berth.
Thank Gord for Skinner. That said, imagine how bullish we’d feel about a Georgiev/Skinner pairing right now?
That said part deux, how does Skinner not get the first star last night? I know Georgiev faced more shots but the only goal Stuey ‘allowed’ was an own goal deflection. The man with the moustache was money!
In a world where Georgiev was an Oiler and Campbell wasn’t, we’d probably still be unsure of how good Skinner is.
Well, we could have found out last year and ran Skinner – Koskinen with extra money for a depth forward or something which even though thats not a need it could have been flipped for a pick!
And Hall for Larsson was one for one!
And Bonsignore is a bust!
And the Gretzky trade was a sale!
Alright I’m heading down to Gainers to raise some shit whose with me!?
Ooh the good old days when hard working folks fought back after there pensions disappeared in Pocklington minute.
This is a very good point.
I would still like to see Bjugstad get a few shifts at RW with Drai and Kane. Another big body. Bjugstad is probably a better finisher than Yamo.
McLeod can play 3C and Ryan 4C.
“Bjugstad is probably a better finisher than Yamo” – seems unlikely,
Since becoming full time in the NHL at Christmas of 2019, Yamamoto has scored 49 goals and 112 points in 219 games with a 15.6 shooting %. Bjugstad, over those same seasons in 191 games, scored 31 goals and 61 points with a 9.6% shooting %. Yamamoto has been the more productive offensive player by a wide margin.
Maybe Woodcroft gives Bjugstad some time in the top 6 in the playoffs to feature a different look for a short period, but barring injuries, I don’t see that as a consistent line up deployment from Woody.
I mean, Bjugstad has a history of scoring. His career was derailed by injuries. He seems back on track.
Also, Yamo has played the majority of his NHL career with two of the best passers in the game. That is a consideration when evaluating his point totals and goals scored.
But point taken.
How many clean Goals has Yamo scored this year like say on a 2-1 or from a nice shot? Of his 10 Goals 3-4 have been tipped in from a shot from the point. Yamo is actually really good at it. Anyhow that leaves like 5 or 6 clean Goals by Yamo where as No Frills (min wage) Chaisson has 6 shot Goals in 20 games. Yamo is over prized, if your going to keep Nurse,Hyman,McDavid,Leon,Nuge,Bouchard,kane,Bouchard you can’t have a 10 Goal top 6 winger making 3M no matter how good of a guy he is.
KY had an outlier season with 17.5S% that was largely driven by one hot scoring streak. Factor that out and he’s much closer to Bjugstad for career S%. Neither project as exceptional finishers imo.
Yamamoto has shot 13.7% over the last 3 years (since said heater).
Bjugstad is a 9.2% shooter for his career and is 9.9% in the last 3 (he is on a personal heater this year and actually has only 1 other season of his career over 9%).
FWIW.
Aside from his backtrack on that shift, I certainly didn’t see Foegele bad. Quite the contrary, I was struck by how often he was acting as a key transporter on that line on OZ entries. Seems that surprised even him at times because he’d beat a couple guys at the blue line with his speed and then turn it over in the offensive zone. If he could curl more effectively there for a dish off, that would add a nice element to his game. I thought McLeod and Foegele’s speed was a handful in general for the Avs and was really encouraged by the play of our bottom six vs the Avs’ depth guys.
The cap has hurt the Avs particularly the depth of their roster. They’ll likely have Landeskog back for the WCF so the strength vs strength matchups will be tough, but of course Jay will pull out the nuclear pairing for key situations.
Wouldn’t it be something if it’s the Oilers depth scoring that proves the decisive edge in a playoff series against the champs?
I evaluate players not on points but on finishing the chances they do get, and puck management. The teams that cause the Oilers problems create open looks in scoring areas and have good finishers, because those chances happen a lot. Better play by goalies has eased the carnage, and Ekholm doesn’t let a lot of those happen on his side
The game is won or lost over time in details. Boston did what they did because they mange the puck better and control play better. They know how to break down coverage and set up scoring plays. They have a great finisher. I don’t see their roster as the difference, but their process and consistency, Bergeron aside
Players have to be over 50% in battles, execution of game play (clears, dumps, puck support) for the team to reach consistent dominant levels and carry it through playoffs. So say the Leafs
PLayers have to support offense in zone by getting open when the puck carrier needs them. As in Connor ripping around the O zone and skating himself into coverage because there isn’t anyone that has moved themselves into a place to get a pass in a scoring area. Gretzky used to have Kurri and Coffey
Certain games sure they do it. Many tight games it goes away like last night. Gregor tweeted SportsLogiq which I think OP dropped for us from the first 2 periods and the Avs had more puck control (successful entries) despite less possession time, and more dangerous chances (slot shots) despite less shots
I have no problem with Foegele, everyone seems to take assessment as attack, but he is poor with the puck. His feet get way ahead of his processing. He isn’t great or consistent with clears or on the boards. His passing is marginal. He wasn’t great last night getting the puck deep which is forecheck 101. His backhand attempt was a vintage Oiler muffin to the crest, no feint, straight panic
He can rip a beauty once in a while yes. But those details are key, he’s inconsistent and not cheap, so I look for better. But not right now, the trade deadline has passed!
I was really pumped that they won the game last night. The win being so huge, that they were given such a battle from a team missing their top player and a beast difference maker, to keep the focus sharp after such a long run of success. A reminder
The Oilers went opposite on me last night. I thought they would bring a better game, not that they didn’t play well as a group, but wanting to show dominance. I felt they slipped into some old habits almost like a time warp back into last year’s playoffs, This time though they are ‘healthy’ and had Skinner and Ekholm, the Avs no Makar
As the Avs started to fade, I felt that while they were getting more shots, they weren’t creating a lot of dangerous chances. They killed the penalty, and I felt like it would take a lucky break and if it went to OT they would lose
Leon finally got a pass through a player, Connor made his best play of the game drawing a PP, and Bouch unleashed. Total flip on how I thought the game would play out. I want to post some stats in a bit to ponder
It’s amazing how Elkholm has positioned everyone in the correct batting order. This is the best I’ve seen Nurse all year he’s not trying force as much. Ekholm has taken some of the negative spotlight ( cap hit) off of Nurse and he’s upped his game as a result.
Pts% against the Pacific:
EDM – 0.740 (37)
COL – 0.646 (31)
LAK – 0.620 (31)
MIN – 0.604 (29)
WPG – 0.604 (29)
VGK – 0.580 (29)
SEA – 0.560 (28)
DAL – 0.542 (26)
Pts% against the West:
EDM – 0.704 (69)
COL – 0.688 (66)
WPG – 0.663 (65)
LAK – 0.653 (64)
DAL – 0.646 (62)
VGK – 0.643 (63)
MIN – 0.633 (62)
SEA – 0.633 (62)
Sure would be nice to draw Seattle in round one. Also interesting that LA bests VGK in both.
IMO, 1 – 3 points is immaterial. when you factor in injuries, can you really say 1 team is more of a threat than another (L.A. vs VGS)?
Colorado, Vegas, LA will all be getting very substantial players back from injury before the playoffs begin and Minnesota hung in there while Kaprizov was out but he is now back in the lineup.
Objects in the rear view mirror are closer than they appear.
Acknowledging who is in whose rear view mirror is an important first step. I’m so proud!
EDM was without Kane, McLeod, Yamamoto, Bjugstad and Ekholm for a large portion of the season and still managed to bring the conference title down to game 82.
Objects in the rear view mirror have been getting smaller and smaller since the calendar hit 2023.
Meeting SEA in the first round is a very tough task.
That would require the Ducks to beat the Kings in regulation,
The Ducks are on a 12 game losing streak and the Kings are getting Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson back in the lineup.
And of course Seattle would need to beat Vegas in regulation as well.
But stranger things have happened.
We get it we would lose to everyone even though we havent lost to anyone in a month.
Every win is circumstantial. The Oilers have dealt with 0 injuries and everyone else is icing an AHL team against us.
Does this not count as LT’s warning about 500 of the same comment.
Oilers could beat Colorado at full strength and HH would talk about how Colorado was missing their equipment manager who was out with a flu as if it makes a difference.
Exactly!
If we beat SJ(likely), we need SEA to beat Vegas to get first. If we get first we also win COnverence and face Winnipeg, regardless of whether SEA catches LA or not. If we win and Vegas beats SEA , we get LA. If we lose to SJ amd SEA catches LA, THEN we get SEA.
Howdy Stranger!
PITT has 0 players on their roster from the last 9 drafts.
Assuming Edmonton will trade their 1st round pick most years while they are true Cup contenders, this outlines why it will be so important for them to keep or add some later picks AND to continue finding NHL players outside of Round 1.
I imagine the Oilers add picks this summer, trading away some combination of Kulak, Foegele, and Yamo.
They’ll hold on to Kulak for another season for sure, once Broberg’s contract comes up then Kulak probably goes….I agree one or both of Yams and Foegele are likely gone this summer.
I still want a Niemo/Vinnie third pairing. Guess I’ll have to wait until next year after the parade.
What is the preference for first round opponent?
Seattle
Winnipeg
LA
in that order? I don’t rate the Jets but who wants to run into a hot Hellebuyck
I don’t think anyone wanted to run into a hot Markstrom last season either. A Hellebuyck/Oiler matchup could very well ruin his career as well.
Jets because then watching their average team for a season was worth it for STM playoff prices to see 97.
Seattle, then LA, then Winnipeg … the first two have mediocre goaltending.
Hellybuyck is the main reason the Jets are in the playoffs, and can tilt a series when he gets hot … I don’t want to get ‘goalied’ out of the first round … let Vegas or Colorado deal with them.
I remain of the belief that if a goalie beats you in a series, you weren’t willing to or can’t play the right way, and/or have poor shooters. Goalies can’t save pucks they can’t see. Or get them moving and SV% goes way down
With our speed I believe we can exploit the Winnipeg D. If Ehlers is hurt that would be a huge loss to the Jets hopes.
Ehlers always lights us up
I see your point, but I recall a few years back when Montreal used Halak to bounce both of Washington and Pittsburgh two rounds in a row. I don’t think Washington or Pittsburgh were short of good shooters that year!
Not saying it could never happen. You need to get traffic and be good at creating high quality chances. If your pounding at the sides and shooting right at a hot goalie, especially with no deception and also losing confidence, then no
Boston and the Avs are good at it. It takes years to get the timing etc down. The Oilers used to regularly take weak shots head on the goalie, no changing shooting angle, no shoulder fake, no pass fake. It’s hard to score in any goalie like that
As we know, moving the puck east west makes the goalie move and the save harder. Screening the shot and setting up tips. Plays from the corner to an open shooter makes the save much harder. Being able to elevate the puck and hit the net, as goalies protect the bottom once moving. If this is strategized and done often it works
I also think if ice isn’t open you need quick puck movement and a plan in mind. Just relying on talent riffing often doesn’t work, without a plan. Have to make the D open up or miss a coverage
If you’d said to me at the start of the season that those would be the 3 first round options I’d have taken any one of them. Winnipeg gives me the biggest pause and it’s completely due to goaltending and the horror show from a few years back. But, things have changed with the Oilers since then.
I’m not bothered. Any team is fine.
Our roster, including goaltending is as good or better than anything Seattle or LA has.
Hellybuyck until proven otherwise is better than Skinner. Our shooters vs mediocre goaltending … I’ll take our shooters to win a 7 game series every time.
Hellybuyck already ‘goalied’ us once. I’d like to avoid seeing that again.
Hellybuck goalied a top-heavy team that scored 3.27 goals/games, were reliant on two players to produce that offence and had Puljujarvi play the 3rd most forward minutes (with Yamamoto fourth and Kassian, Khaira and Archibald 6-8 in minutes player – 5 on 5).
He did not goalie this deep ass 2-way team.
I did some quick and dirty analysis on possible first round opponents. Stats are from this season only:
Edmonton vs LA. 2-2 record 9-10 goals. Skinner started all 4 games.
Edmonton vs Seattle. 3-1 record 20-13 goals (!). Skinner started 3 of 4, and went 2-1.
Edmonton vs WPG. 1-1 record 11-10 goals. Each goalie started as these games were back-to-back. Campbell got pumped for 7 goals on 4 March.
It’s worth mentioning that in the two very recent games against LA (30 March and 4 April), the Oilers won both and outscored the Kings 5-1.
Missing the NYE game versus Jets.
Oops! Thanks.
Edmonton 1-2 vs Jets. 12-12 goals. Skinner was 1-0 and Campbell was 0-2.
Can someone explain to me how the strength of the divisions are determined?
I keep seeing the pacific being labeled the weakest division but haven’t seen an explanation as to why. Reminds me of when the Canadian division was called the weakest and then Montreal went on to the Stanley Cup final.
I cracked this code about a year ago and it is a very complicated algorithm. Since “A” is first in the alphabet, combined with the Leafs existence, the Atlantic is always the most difficult division and any team reaching the postseason is better than all other division leaders. Metro and Central don’t matter so they are 2/3. Pacific is alphabetically last, includes the teams of peasants such as Edmonton, and is the furthest away from Toronto, so is always the weakest, and winning a division in the Pacific is akin to finishing second last in the almighty Atlantic. Hope that helps and clarifies things for you.
As with all awards and power rankings, East coast bias.
Edit: I’d bet my hat half of the people that will vote Beniers for Calder have never seen him play.
Just total up the points (or records, or goals) from teams in each division. The within division part will cancel out, any differences are how the teams did against the rest of the league. => strength of division.
I looked at this a week or so ago. What PinkSocks said is totally correct.
(It actually is, the Atlantic is the best and Pacific worst, but the gaps are not large so it’s probably being overstated. The Pacific has been on a bit of a tear since Christmas though, so the gaps may have been larger earlier in the year).
I don’t believe total points is definitive in terms of deciding which is the stronger division, but it might be pretty close. The OT shoot out bonus point can skew results within and between the divisions. If I am thinking correctly, at the extreme, if all inter-divisional games were perfectly split, (ie all teams win in regulation exactly as many as they lose in regulation with no OT games to teams in the other 3 divisions, and if only one division has all its intra-divisional games go to OT, while all the other 3 divisions had all their intra-divisional games end in regulation, comparing total points by division would falsely conclude that the one division was significantly superior to the other 3. Everyone in the other 3 divisions would have .500 records across the board, or 82 points average per team, while the division with all the intra-divisional OT games would be well over 100 points.
It is possible in the real world all the OT point noise washes out somewhat evenly across the divisions though, and the overall comparison between the divisions would be the same. The NHL site used to let you track team statistics by division and conference which could allow you to easily sort data to get to how the teams actually faired in intra vs inter-divisional games.
Yes it’s an assumption that the extra points even out. You can also use goals for/against, though that’s not perfect either.
There are still sites (like ESPN) that have the vs. division and vs. conference records even thought the NHL doesn’t (https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings/_/view/vs-division).
Taking away the standings impact Thursday’s game might have and taking away and sort of credence to what Campbell may need as far as not getting rusty, etc., with the goal being solely to ensure Skinner is ready to go, rested but to rusty, for game 1 of the playoffs, who starts on Thursday.
The Oilers will start the playoffs either Monday or Tuesday. If Campbell starts Thursday, that means it will be essentially a week between games for Skinner? Is that too much time between starts? Should he play Thursday in order to keep in rhytyhm with a more reasonable 3-4 days between starts.
Thinking solely of preparing for game 1, I think Skinner plays on Thursday.
That goes for the entire lineup as well – a week between games is not good for any player (and Woody already expressed the importance of rhythm and that noone would be fully rested a few days ago).
Agreed. Unless someone has a minor injury that would better heal with some time off, start Skinner and run the full lineup.
I agree. Start Skinner and all the big boyz. If the game is out of hand after 2, I would look at putting Campbell in and not playing or greatly reducing ice time for McD / Drai / etc.
I think Kostin might come out for Dylan Holloway once playoff time arrives.
I agree with this. Kostin is the one current lineup player (in addition to Shore) that I think Holloway could play over.
I don’t think this coaching staff plays Holloway over either Janmark or D. Ryan in the playoffs even though the suggestion is rampant in certain places online.
I think Holloway in for Kostin could happen. Far from a sure thing, but Kostin hasn’t been playing much and has been scratched a few times. Holloway-McLeod had been playing quite a bit together too, IIRC.
Agree Janmark or Ryan coming out for Holloway is very unlikely, though I do think it’s conceivable with D. Ryan.
Early days yet for this, but I’m a fan and overly excited. Taking out first round picks, is Vinny the best Oilers defenceman drafted and developed by the organization in the last couple of decades?
Petry is the obvious one to think of. Bear maybe? I have him ahead for now but for some reason Vinny strikes me as a guy that could hang around the league for a long time and Bear might end up going the same route as the next guy I’ll mention. Davidson. He’ll always feel like the one that got away and that’s completely down to the injuries.
Then you have guys like Marino that never suited up for the organization. Gustafsson who was lost in the shuffle etc.
I guess the main point I should be taking from this is probably more that we’ve turned a corner on defensive player assessment somewhere in that 2012-2014 time period and haven’t looked back. Niemalainen, Kemp, Kesselring, Lagesson, Samorukov etc. Those were all good 3rd round on bets.
In summary, pleasing.
Some of the more recent picks are looking like good bets too: Wanner and Yevseyev come to mind.
100%. Munzenberger I think could also be a solid player as well, we need to see him on a non bad team though.
We need Luca on the team, if only to get rid of the Bobby Nicks Burger and replace it with a value priced (like an ELC) Munzen Burger.
… with muenster cheese melted over it?
Now I’m all hungry.
As both a devourer of burgers and cheese I am on board with this. Maybe there could be a multi burger meal as well, like a two for Wanner?
Good post. I’d split hairs & say neither Gustafsson nor Marino should be considered because they were drafted but NOT developed by the organization, unless you count a couple of Dev Camps.
Good picks, though.
Petry was basically a #1RD when the Oilers decided to move on from him
I loved, and still enjoy Petry. Definitely a “what are we doing here?” moment when he was traded (ran out of town).
Maybe on the Oilers, but Petry doesn’t appear to have had a lot of time as a true number one D since he left Edmonton. Subban was the number one right D when Petry first went to Montreal, then when Subban was traded for Webber, Webber was basically the number one guy unless he was hurt. By the end of Webber’s time (when he was 36), Petry was playing similar TOI so maybe a 1B, but Webber was still getting the tougher minutes. Just look at the Habs deployment in the ’21 playoffs after which Webber had to retire from injuries. In 2021/22, the first season Petry was anointed as the full time undisputed number one guy (again except for the previous stretches where Webber was injured), it was arguably the worst of Petry’s career. He’s traded in the off season to the Pens, where this season he has undoubtedly played behind Letang.
Tough to fully judge Petry’s career. Having to play behind these 3 shouldn’t be a knock on him: Subban, a former Norris winner who finished 3rd in the Norris the season Petry arrived); Webber, nine times consecutively finishing in the top 10 for Norris votes, including 2 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th and finally a 6th in his first year in Montreal; and, Letang, also finishing in the top 10 for Norris 8 times including 7th last season. But playing behind these 3 for the most part, also has sheltered him somewhat in terms of looking at his body of work. A stellar career for a 2nd pair D perhaps. Maybe on another team he could have flourished as a number 1 D, or at least have been a very capable one, but we are unlikely to find out at this point.
Evan Bouchard?
Great game by the Oilers last night, I wish Makar was playing so it would feel like we beat the Avs at their best but I’ll take the win. Oilers and Avs are the two best teams in the West.
We were missing Ceci too.
Not saying Ceci and Makar are the same players, but we played a rookie in Ceci’s spot and they were not playing a rookie in Makar’s.
Seattle should be pretty fired up for Thursday. You don’t want to go into a playoff series against a team that just beat you twice in a row. I have a feeling our conference crown is coming.
edit: nevermind, that’s not how things would shake out if Vegas won. C’mon Seattle, just win one in your own barn for the hell of it! Anaheim can beat LA and you can move up!
Just noting that if the Oilers take care of business against San Jose, Seattle WILL go into the playoffs against a team that just beat them twice in a row. Which one is still TBD
I do wonder what night we will start the playoffs. Cutthbert let out a slip the other night when he mentioned Tuesday night for the Leafs. That would make sense so the series would line up with Sat night for HNIC. Going Tues/Thur/Sat.
I would assume they put the Oil on Monday / Wed/Friday . But with Winnipeg in the playoffs. And if we end up 2nd and draw LA, Would they screw us over for 8 PM games. On the back of the Leafs. Hope not.
i guarantee it’ll be 8pm starts. They will want these other Canadian games clear of the leafs games and other eastern matchups.
Winnipeg likely gets the off night due to time zone, but it’s their first two games are at 8pm as well – likely opponent is Vegas or Edmonton.
It’s the G3&4 for Winnipeg at home they will want to start earlier, so no way they run those during the leafs games. If it isn’t Edmonton/Winnipeg in the first round I’d expect Edmonton will go Tues/Thursday/Sat all at 8pm or later.
Every Oilers game will be 8pm in the first round.
There will be two games every night.
I would be shocked if its any other way.
Crazy that our two biggest RW bets (Pulj and Yamo) are/were barely able to hold on to any role with the team – let alone the top line(s).
Between Halloway, McLeod and Lavoie, there should be a decent fit on Drai’s flank for the playoff stretch.
How has Yamamoto been barely able to hold on to a team spot let alone top line when you consider he is only ever out of the line up due to injury, and when in the line up, he almost exclusively plays in the top 6?
He frequently plays with MacLeod & Foegele. So, I wouldn’t say he is exclusively a top six forward.
Less than 20% of Yamamoto’s ice time has been with McLeod and/or Foegele, and almost a half of his time with either of those 2 individually was with Leon as their center Foegele, Yamamoto and Draisaitl have been a line combo for about the same amount of time as McLeod, Foegele and Yamamoto.
Some of those shifts not in the top 6 even occurred when the Oilers were going 11-7 and various top forwards including Yamo would take a shift or two with 2 members of the bottom 6. It also includes shifts after PP’s when all of McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH have come off a lengthy PP shift.
With over 80% of his ice time clearly in the top 6, it’s pretty fair to say on this current roster at this time, Yamamoto is a top 6 player. All the top 6 wingers on the team have some TOI without McDavid and/or Leon.
Yamamoto has his moments. But they’re too few and far between.
When Yamamoto is missing wide open nets that’s a good sign it means he’s going to the net. Once he stops crashing the net they’re better options. Cap wise of 3M for a 10 Goal scorer especially with league average of top 6 players way up can be better spent next year. Of course everything gets throw out with the babies bath water if he contributes in a good way this spring.
Seriously?
A rookie that struggled somewhat every time he was in the top 6 this season and is currently in the AHL.
A rookie who has never played an NHL game.
You really think Lavoie is going to play a playoff game for the Oilers this year….. on Drai’s wing? You think he’d be more effective than Yamamoto, really?
I actually like the Nurse/Desharnais pairing better than Nurse/Ceci. Desharnais seems to be really confident in the last few. Nurse was mean Nurse last night. When he plays like that he is scary.
Skinner is so good and confident right now . That bodes well for a cup run.
That was a full on playoff game last night.
Great win and hopefully It sent a message to Colorado.
The D is night and day from last years series with them.
If Nurse – Desharnais works out, that leaves Kulak – Ceci as the 3rd pairing which means there are no weak spots in Edmonton’s defense corps.
A 6M third pair. Not bad if you can use one
There’s no cap constraints in the playoffs. And somebody (probably Kulak) will be moved in the summer.
Yes I meant a pretty good 3rd pair
Does it matter? There is also a league min on the top pair and a $925K on the second pair.
No I meant who wouldn’t want the third pair to be players like that instead of league minimum types or greenhorns
What a horrible pair to play against if it holds. Huge and mean, both of them
Agree on mean Nurse. I liked when Johnson took that run at Kane but barely glanced off him. He didn’t even get stopped from the run and Nurse was right there and laid him out. Kane was turning to take a number and almost got hit as well. The knowing smile that he had backup let’s Kane play his physical best.
If Oilers beat the Sharks, and Vegas lose to the Kraken, does this mean Oilers play Seattle in round 1?
That would be cool.
Jets
No it means we would play Winnipeg
Not a team I would want to play, in the 1st round
Good thing it’s the Oilers that would be playing them and not you.
Is that suppose to be witty?
They are a big team and it would be a physical series, rather see them play less physical team. Also their goaltender can steal games
Never mind, I was mistaken.
The Oilers will play Seattle if San Jose beats Edmonton, Seattle beats Vegas, and Anaheim beats LA in regulation.
OR, if Anaheim beats LA in regulation, and Seattle beats Vegas in extra time – then it doesn’t matter what Edmonton does; it will be Edmonton/Seattle in the playoffs.
Instead of Kostin, maybe it’s Holloway for Yamamoto. Maybe.
Doubtful. That POG penalty and the one lost board battle should cost Klim a place to start the playoffs. Though having a player of Klim’s quality ready to go in case of injury is a pretty nice to have.
I saw KY good last night – he made some nice plays in all three zones both at 5v5 and on the PK. Hoping he channels his inner Pasani and emerges as a major contributor to the Oil SC win.
No chance the puck over glass by Kostin would be held against Kostin by Woodcroft in the manner you suggest. That was an accident (somewhat poor execution of a dump out, not a mental error). That happens almost once a game by some player on one or both teams.
Could not find data for 2023 (maybe someone has this and can share). However, in 2021, POG accounted for 3.2% of all penalties so not sure this happens ‘almost once a game’.
You’re right, I should have checked the data before making a claim based on my perception of how often it seems to happen (maybe that’s influenced by how frustrating a penalty it is and often just bad luck (the rule makes sense, but the punishment is not balanced with the crime).
Assuming your 3.2% is correct, and roughly 300 penalties per team per year, that would be one roughly every 4 games to one team or the other, well below my perception. My primary point though still stands that this happens to a lot of players (as many as 300 POG or more in a season) most of whom are not making a mental error, but more often attempting the right play but not quite executing properly.
Contrary to popular belief, even marginal players are rarely benched for just one mistake. Sometimes it can be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back, (an accumulation of other bad play that the coaches saw, that the outside observer didn’t see or a mental error that the coaches have been continuously reminding the team about.
Clearly marginal players have less room for error, since the coaches perception of the risk reward for each player varies widely, but I doubt Woodcroft sees Kostin any more likely to make that mistake again than most of his other forwards.
Perhaps but, at the same time, the objective facts that we have are that Kostin barely saw the ice after that penalty.
Think the coach loves Yammo. Doubt he gets scratched. But if we play LA, I think Kostin draws in for game 1 for sure over Holloway.
Leon likes playing with Kailer, which is a factor unless Kailer actually Kostin really out played him (which he hasn’t in the vast majority of games). And Kailer kills penalties.
Woodcroft’s trust in Yamamoto’s defensive game and puck management anywhere on the ice will very likely overshadow the physical edge Kostin brings.
I’d like to see Foegele back on Drais RW. He was catching fire there.
I think Yama is a bit of a problem. I like the player, but there’s nothing he does that can’t be done by a bunch of guys in the bottom six. If you want forechecking, Foegle is a better option. If you want defence, Janmark is a better option. If you want overall play, Bjugstad is a better option.
Yama needs to create offence and he’s simply not doing that right now. Yama is a legit NHL player, and could still be a legit top six forward, but right now he’s not doing anything to separate himself from the bottom six.
This isn’t true. It’s BS that’s he not creating and/or contributing to offense. The constant hate for Yamo is bizarre considering how effective he is.
Plugs haven’t worked with Leon or McD because they cannot think or play the game at the same speed. They don’t get chances because they can’t comprehend or read plays quick enough. This is what sunk JP. Yes he could turn over pucks. He then proceeded to get in his teammates way and kill sorties left and right.
Yamo has trouble scoring but he gets to pucks, makes plays and gets chances. He forchecks well and suppresses offense in the D-Zone and its why he got PK reps instead of JP. Scoring in the NHL is damn hard, especially if you’ve been in and out of the lineup due to injury.
Zach Hyman’s scoring numbers are eerily similar to Yamamoto’s early in their careers. Despite the size difference they play similar games but Yamo is already a far better defensive player.
It is a mistake to give up on this player.
I must say, I’m impressed by your passion. Thumbs up for that alone.
I was very explicit that I’m not giving up on the player. And the numbers indicate that Yamamoto isn’t generating any offense right now. Something like 5 points in the last 20 games. Yes he forechecks, but Foegle does it better. Yes he plays good defence, but Janmark does it better. Yama can still be a legit top six player going forward, but right now he’s not.
He’s got 8 points at 5 on 5 in the last 20 games which is fifth among forwards…..
5 goals in that time (3rd, tied with Leon).
Thank you…
I was just reaching for the keyboard to blurt out the thought’s in my head about the constant abuse of 56. (don’t exactly know what they’d’a been, but “Bull Shit” was top of mind) But you’ve stated my thoughts with way more grace than I’d’a mustered.
Anyone who watches 56 & 37 play a string of games, and comes away thinking 37 is > than 56 struggles with the skill of “watching hockey”.
I fully appreciate 37, for what he is.
But I recognize 56, for who he is.
In the last 16 games (I use that since that is when Kane got back in the line up full time) At 5 on 5, Foegele has 9 points, while Kane has 7, Hyman 6 and Yamamoto 5. Seems like all 3 of the top 6 wingers have been struggling. (dropping those 4 games from the data actually hurts Yamato’s stats, since he actually scored 3 points in those 4 games).
in terms of on ice results though, Yamamoto has an on ice goal share of 61% (11/7) compare to Hyman’s 50% (13/13) and Kane’s 42% (10/14). Foegele is probably on his best stretch with the Oilers and has a team best 68% goal share (11/5). Using your theory, any one of those 3 would be as likely a candidate to be replaced by Foegele.
Woody is much more patient than that though as he knows what they’re all capable of. His patience isn’t endless, but as long as the team is still winning and play is going the right way, I don’t see him dropping Yamo down the line up any time soon.
I’ve been saying, BJUGSTAD for some time now. But nobody listens.
Kane- Draisaitl – BJUGSTAD.
The problem with putting Yams down in the lineup is that there is no one that can cash in the chances any better. His small size would weaken our grinding third or fourth lines, he is better playing with the 2 big men. If Holloway was a proven sniper, yes put him in that spot, but for now that is a move that would stink of desperation. I like last nights lineup, in a 11-7 configuration I’m afraid it would be Kostin getting the seat, but as OP mentions, what a luxury 12/13th forward to have.
The bottom six has been contributing on the score sheet at a high rate. It’s no longer just Connor & Leon. Which is a tribute to why the team is having such success, not to mention their defensive play.
Yet you think nobody from the bottom six can cash in their chances any better than Yamamoto and he’s too small to play anywhere but the top six, where he actually does a decent job of grinding despite his size already? Ridiculous.
I wonder. I think Drai would benefit from a playmaking winger. Maybe Kane can do that but he doesn’t regularly. This season Drai has had games where his skating is way off, like the ankle is acting up, like last night, and he gets into trouble
He wants to dominate, and when he can’t, bad things happen. They were lucky one of his poor puck management plays didn’t end up in the twine. When he is off and can’t carry the puck in successfully, someone else should and he should look to be set up
It would open the D zone because they will follow him, being the shooting danger. Last night they collapsed on him and he continually gave it up or didn’t get it deep
All this talk about Yamo and the 2RW spot and who should and could replace him, etc., etc.
I’m going to guess that the coaching staff is going to stick with the structure of the lineup that is playing absolutely elite 2-way hockey for a long stretch and leading being the best team (points wise) for a LONG period of time.
If there are struggles in the playoffs and a loses start to come, an adjustment will be made, I’m sure but, seriously, this team is playing as good as and Oiler team has played since the 90s (potentially), maybe they should roll with it even if Yamo only his 5th in forward scoring in the last 20 games (5 on 5)?
I didn’t say to replace Yama necessarily. I don’t care right now about his scoring anyway. I care about getting the best out of Leon. There are games like last night where I don’t like Leon being the only puck carrier and play maker
Yama and Kane can keep plays going and contribute, but don’t carry play enough. Last night Leon needed more help IMO
Leon was only partially interested last night and will likely be the same tomorrow. He’ll be full on Leon on Monday and his most successful stretch of the season (over the last month) has had Yamamoto on his right wing almost full time.
As an aside, my post wasn’t directly at you per se, I just responded to the last post in the thread and the premise of the thread which was mainly a discussion on who should play the 6F spot with various options that looked at change from what has been working as well as anything for months.
Fabulous game last night and one of the most enjoyable stretches of Oilers Hockey since the dream run in 2006. As LT like to remind us, these are the good times folks, enjoy and soak it in!
As spectacular a game as it was, I have to say that thread yesterday was perhaps even more remarkable than the game. The personal comments and thoughtful reflections regarding the group’s Oiler Fandom and aspirations was truly a genuine reflection of our gracious hosts perspective and tone.
Yesterday’s thread served as another reminder how extraordinary this place can be and what an oasis LT has curated and created. I hope the thread was received as a bit of a belated Easter gift by our host, after he gifted us all with his truly remarkable post/update on Easter.
Thank you LT, you are a hearder of cats extraordinaire! … No offense Ziggy:)
Nice to come out on top in a game that could have gone either way. I’m really impressed with how many times this year they’ve been able to respond to a goal against with a quick strike back. My recollection from past years is that it often went the other way.
The only down arrow I had last night is I thought there were times they gave MacKinnon a bit too much time to wheel. I guess there’s no sense in showing them too much before meeting later in the playoffs.
That’s what I’m hoping. Just like you can’t play the Oilers and let Connor and Leon run free, you can’t play the Avs and let MacKinnon and Rantanen loose. Or in the Oilers case Compher, he always gets us
Makar wasn’t even playing and he’s almost on half the game. The key to the beating the Avs solidly is the forecheck. They like the Oilers need to be stopped starting in their end. No room to break out clean, hits on the small D whenever possible, no free lanes, no building up speed through the N zone
Bednar had last change so got 29 / 96 out against Oilers 3rd pair a few times. They did fine all things considered.
Ever since the leafs debacle, it seems like they’ve focused on making sure to respond the other way instead of letting it snowball against. That loss might’ve taught them a very good lesson.