VITAL SIGNS
The Edmonton Oilers had a problem in 2011 and 2012. The club projected Travis Ewanyk (No. 74 overall in 2011) and Mitchell Moroz (No. 32 overall in 2012) as players who could eventually play third-line minutes in the NHL. They miscalculated.
THE ATHLETIC
- New Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
- Lowetide: Oilers begin rise from the depths during a stunning November
- DNB: Is it time the Edmonton Oilers expected more from Ryan McLeod?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse impressive in all areas after coaching change
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg reaches crossroads as NHL defenceman
- DNB: Four reasons why the Oilers are very much in the Western Conference playoff race
- Lowetide: How is the Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects list shaping up?
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers find roster solutions on the NHL fringes?
- DNB: Oilers must address goaltending situation before it’s too late
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers making a productive goalie trade is an expensive proposition
- DNB: Who is new Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch? These 3 traits define his approach
- Lowetide: What Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction
- Lowetide: Can Connor McDavid come from behind to win another Art Ross Trophy?
MODERN OILERS DRAFTING
Edmonton got better in this area several years ago and has been doing good work in recent years. Finding someone who credits the scouts is difficult, but I’ve been watching this team draft since the WHA days and this group of scouts is excellent. Can they be better?? Sure, give them more picks!
Consider this past year’s draft. Beau Akey was a first-round talent, Matt Copponi looks like he’ll have a pro career based on his numbers so far in college. The club is getting a lot of heat about choosing Xavier Bourgault in 2021, but his junior numbers suggested he could hang as a middle-six winger in the NHL if he developed. Matvey Petrov, chosen in the sixth round, also had solid boxcars. Carter Savoie? Yes. Tyler Tullio? Yes. Dylan Holloway less certain.
Bottom line: When you’re ripping to scouts over Jesper Wallstedt, remember the Oilers scouts don’t make trades. Thanks.
At noon today we hit the airwaves on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie, Jason Gregor and Decklan Kreuger’s Mamma MMA will all be featured, starting at noon today. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
So ummmm Canucks eh?
Demko for the Vezina eh?
Hahahhahaha
So Demko leads in GSAx. And you don’t think that’s a rational basis for projecting a Vezina win? Ok then. What’s a rational basis for a prediction ? Most predictions aren’t accurate.
The only Canucks game I’m interested in is the remaining one against the Oilers in April. They owned the Oilers for three games and derailed our season. They should get some respect for that.
Here is the charted regression calendar from the 2022-2023 NHL season:
–monthly non-cumulative PDO
–monthly cumulative PDO
–monthly non-cumulative xGF%
–cumulative xGF%
I certainly heard at the start of this season, that EDM’s PDO would experience positive regression. What I heard a lot less is that the “real Oilers” from the end of last season (non-cumulative) were posting a PDO almost 2 standard deviations above the mean.
They will.
You’re come across math formulas that dont matter until sample sizes grow.
You’ve discovered nothing and the fights you’re trying to pick are 10 years old.
Youre fighting fights that are 15 years old.
They will what?
Theres no claim here to anything special and no fights.
There’s just charts for PDO and xGF% displaying regressed values in two conditions based on the comments earlier regarding a “regression calendar”.
if you can’t appreciate that, that’s your problem. And if you’re going to be an ass, at least criticize me for something which I’ve done.
I’m familiar with the fights. And familiar with the essentially non predictive aspects of public analytics.
Fun fact as pointed out by Gregor today: the Coyotes last 5 games (vs. Vegas, Tampa, Colorado, St. Louis and Washington) have been against the last 6 Cup winners (Tampa won twice). Not only was that an unusual scheduling quirk, but its pretty impressive that the Coyotes won them all. That said, there will be regeession with this team.
Playing in that tiny arena seems to give them a distinct advantage.
8-4-0 at home.
Flames terribad versus the Canucks.
If they decided to make a 2nd and first division in the NHL by splitting it in two;
…using a schedule that still allows the 2nd division to compete then Calgary are going straight in.
LA Kings fans scared of Oilers – say Kings will cool off just in time to play Oilers who will be surging.
Based on current point projections, that would require the Oilers to finish in the first wildcard position.
Is that what you’re expecting?
I think its in the range of reasonable. And i mean, its not what you want if your the kings and jist had a fairly successful season, only to play a surging team whose beat you in the playoffs 2 straight years.
I’d say it’s possible but not reasonable.
The Kings are the hottest team in the league, have the best team defence and multiple games in hand on most teams so have an excellent chance of finishing first in the conference which would have them play the second wildcard team
That might well be the Oilers but there are certainly other contenders.
But harp, if the kings end up first its even more likely the oilers would be the team they line up with. Them being “the hottest team” has no bearing on the oilers playoff position. Of course theres other contenders, and nothing in life is guaranteed. I will say this though. If i am a king, its not the first round match i would choose, given a choice.
The most unlikely first round matchup would not be a team with worst goaltending in the conference and, if it is, that certainly lessens whatever fear factor might exist.
None of that matters. A team has ousted you in consecutive years. Thats the team you want to play? Thats who you would CHOOSE to play? I think youre foolin yourself.
If I were coaching that team…that’s exactly who I would want to meet especially if I knew their goaltending is trash.
Staios might be interested in Jay Woodcroft for Senators.
https://dailyhive.com/edmonton/oilers-coach-woodcroft-new-job-ottawa-senators
…see the 4:02 post.
‘We’ll dig ourselves out of the hole’: Jackson confident that Oilers are on right track https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/~2818772
Am enjoying this season since the new coach and Coffey took over the team.
Woodcroft seemed to lose the plot after being bounced in the playoffs.
He turned up at training camp expecting the team to understand his new style of play and when they didn’t he was left all alone in the middle of the highway. He’s a good coach and someone is going to hire him.
Oilers for whatever they are worth are very close to contending. Sure it’s easy to write off a bottom 5 team in December lol which is going to make it all the more fun when it’s February/March and they’re in no lower than 3rd place.
I am here too. The coaching staff is responsible for the training camp and this one was fireable.
Theres been a couple times when excellent coaches were fired in the NBA, after an excellent season, and then replaced by rookies, who then went on to win a championship. Marc Jackson in G.S, and Dwayne Casey in TO are who i am thinking of.
Dumb question. Has Jack Campbell actually been re-called, or was that just probable speculation that arose Saturday night?
No, that’s a great question. The commentary Saturday evening had me searching the internet for substantiation of a Campbell recall, but I couldn’t find anything.
To my knowledge he has not been recalled as of now.
He has not been recalled although, if one listens to Friedman, its not a matter of if but when as they are just figuring out the roster issue as a skater, in addition to Pickard, would need to be assigned.
I presume that Pickard would need to clear waivers again as he’s dressed for 10 games but, of course, he hasn’t played in 10 games so I’m not 100% positive but that would make sense.
Pacific Division goaltending.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/travis-yost-pacific-division-being-defined-by-goaltending-outperformance-1.2044344
Looks to me like The Vezina Pacific is due for a regression just as the Oilers are set for a 4.5 goal pace for 60 games. Hello division title didn’t think we’d meet again.
Are all those goaltenders going to regress at the same time?
Is there somewhere to look at the Regression Calendar?
Anytime an Oiler is performing well, HH: “they will regress to normal”
Any time a non-Oiler does well, HH: “what are you, some kind of regression expert with a regression calendar?”
Example?
Sure, here are 5 examples in 1 post within the last few months:
“Harpers Hair
August 16, 2023 12:48 pm
Regression is most likely going to be the result of injury.
The Oilers top 5 scorers were uncommonly healthy.”
https://lowetide.ca/2023/08/16/idioteque/
Here, we see you, claiming 5 of the Oilers top scorers were going to regress.
And yet, I can safely say you have never made the same kind of claim for any other team in the NHL, where you predict 5 of their top scorers to regress.
And no, I won’t waste my time finding more examples over the last many years of you doing this kind of thing.
I couldn’t help myself:
“Harpers Hair
October 28, 2023 10:39 am
The best D pair in the league?
https://sportsnet.ca/”
October 28, you refer to a D pairing as the best in the league – a snapshot of excellence in another reply, even. And the season was only 18 days old at that point.
No mention of regression, but presented as some kind of threat to the Oilers.
You also wax poetic about the Ducks around this time too based on their performance, suggesting Oilers fans should be worried about them with no consideration as to whether they would regress or not.
I have the calendar. EDM will reach full regression April 18th. You’re welcome.
Well, Gibson already has.
It’s funny… you post Gibson’s regression calendar every year when people start calling to trade for him.
And yet, nobody seems to pay such consistent and drastic splits any mind. Sad.
They don’t need to regress *at the same time* if the oilers are a running 4.5 GPG for 60 games.
We’re already surpassing a 20 game sample. Regression is primarily a product of GP. In 21-22 VAN sustained just over 93% over 82 GP. Right now they are at 93.4%. Around game 20 we usually start to see values that start to work towards 82 GP values. This similar to the the playoffs American thanksgiving rule of thumb.
And just like that!
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/calgary-flames-g-jacob-markstrom-leaves-practice-with-apparent-hand-injury-1.2044417
Apparently took a hard shot on the hand resulting in a large amount of blood.
A huge blow for the Flames but an opportunity for Dustin Wolf.
Wolf is 10W 3L in the AHL.
.920
Why didn’t the Flames take Oettinger in the 2017 NHL draft? What a bunch of idiots.
Wolf is due for regression as he has been uncommonly healthy, as some would say.
You are on fire today. Thanks for all this.
More on Markstrom and Wolf.
https://sportsnet.ca/
After the last two ridiculously lucky injury wise seasons Flames actually have an injury
Sounds like they are regressing.
EDM’s low SH% is basically the product of VAN’s high SV%. If you remove the three losses vs VAN, EDM SH% at time of Woody firing is much closer to team MEAN. “VAN broke the glimmer twins and got Woody fired” is only a sight over-simplification.
LT…
Two thoughts on the Eagles-49ers game before you go on the air. One thought about the offense and one about the D.
1) Offense: Very few are going to say this but the Niners first quarter was one of the keys to victory. I know, I know, worst quarter for Shanahan as a coach in the NFL–by the stats. This was in part due to the Eagles getting the ball first and having two long drives. But the other part was the key… the Niners were using the pass to set up the run (as I said they would on the weekend), but not in a way that I visualized. Niners rarely use spacing concepts and almost never throw short outs to their wide receivers. Yet that was all we saw on their first eight plays.
The intention? To spread the Eagles secondary, which likes to play tight and in the box to protect the weakest part of the roster, the middle of the defensive secondary. These unusual plays resulted in some execution issues from the Niners O, but they achieved the desired effect, getting that secondary spread, especially after they began to execute and have success on the first two plays of the third drive. That unlocked the running game, which unlocks the play-action game and now the middle of the secondary is vulnerable and the Niners offense was able to feast from then on because of it. That dismal first quarter was actually key.
2) Defense: Did that pass rush by the Niners not look really unusual? Not particularly aggressive, just driving the pocket back but not really coming after Hurts? I think Jalen had a full ten seconds to make a pass on one play. And the Eagles OLine looked confused by this, because the rush would come, but once the Niner rush had pushed five yards or so, the interior (especially) stopped driving. I’ve never seen anything like it, TTYTT.
This completely nullified Hurts’s strength which is to use his feet to make off-schedule explosives. The pass rush stayed in their lanes, did not over pursue and refused to get caught above Hurts, keeping everything below him. This acts as containment and places Hurts in a position he’s not comfortable with… sitting in the pocket and processing to the open receiver. He broke pocket at the back multiple times without having to, but had difficulty finding ways to break containment, get yards with his feet or find receivers off-sked.
To me those were the two keys of the game no one is talking about. Maybe you can use them. maybe not, but I thought I’d put it out there just in case.
Love the football analysis, thanks! Missed the first 1/2 of the game, and was surprised to see how the 9ers just kept rolling to the end
Good stuff Munny. I’m a Niners fan too but don’t have nearly the technical knowledge of the sport that I do of hockey. Interesting read! That’s three dominant wins over so,e of the supposed SB favorites; Philly, Dallas and the Jags.
Thanks guys. KT, I highly recommend watching JT O’Sullivan if you want to learn more about football and quarterbacking/playcalling in general. The absolutely best at breaking down Niner tape though is this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/@jonnydel
He usually has his game breakdowns up on Tuesdays and I often enjoy them more than watching the actual game.
Leon not on the ice for practice today.
That is new (and very rare).
Kane and Nurse are both on the ice after missing yesterday.
There currently are a lot of people in Edmonton area sick with flus, colds and covid. That time of year. Hopefully something minor for Leon. Oilers need all their big guns on board.
The Oilers in style, and perhaps now in player sustainability, are drawing from basketball, and I’m here for it.
What I mean by that is McDavid breaks ankles and distributes the puck in the paint and dunks like no hockey player ever. I love Conner McDavid. He’s amazing.
Hey LT, Cam Wright with 2 goals the other day.
9 games, 5 points.
What if
I’m sure we are all aware of Friedman on Saturday night advising that the Oilers’ plan was, if Campbell had another good game, to call him up as early as this work.
Well, of course, Jack Campbell did not have another good game on Saturday night and one could even posit that the Condors outscored Campbell’s mistakes.
Well, today, on 32 Thoughts (which was tapped last night, post Saturday’s performance) and Friedman still thinks the plan is to call him up – the organization thinks its imperative to see if he can play well at the NHL level. It doesn’t seem like this, well, “same as always” performance in the AHL is a real factor and the hold-up right now is figuring out the roster as they’d need to send down a skater, in addition to Pickard, to make the swap.
This does NOT seem prudent but it does seem inevitable.
If true, the Oilers are setting themselves up for failure again. Even if Campbell comes up and manages to be “ok” as a backup playing every 5 games or so, I for one do not want to enter the playoffs relying solely on Skinner as the lone starter. How did that go last year? Skinner faltered and Woody had no real option except to keep going back to Stu. If this is the path forward, its an admission that the plan is just to cross our fingers and hope for the best. Not very astute management.
I don’t think Campbell is a lost cause. He may yet figure out his game old or not. He’s been good before he can be good again. Problem is we’ve almost sewered a window season, who has the stomach to try and find out. But Cambpell has extreme negative value. If we can continue our recovery and get Campbell a few backup starts maybe he becomes more tradable to a team who has more time. Is that the thinking here?
I’m curious as to why you think he isn’t a lost cause? He struggled ALL year last season…could not really turn it around over an extended period of time (save for one random playoff relief appearance). He then had all off season to do what he needed to get on track and, well, we know how the start of this season went. He gets sent down the the AHL and has been “passable” at that level at best. How/when is this miraculous turnaround going to happen?
As for his trade value, wouldn’t it be better to keep him in the AHL to work on his game and the illusion that maybe he is worth a shot at redemption from another team? If he comes back up to the NHL and has a single awful game, no one will touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let him create a mirage in the AHL and hope someone bites.
What’s the old saying? “Better to remain silent (and stay in the AHL) and be thought a fool than to speak (and bomb in the NHL) and remove all doubt”. Abe Lincoln (maybe)
Jack is a “sunk cost” It was a bad gamble by Holland the day the contract was signed. Jack ain’t going to turn in to a starting goalie and likely not even a good 1B. The drill now is finding best way to dump that contract. Going to be painful no matter the solution.
If he comes up and fails, you have hammered one more nail in the coffin. I would think the most prudent approach is to make sure he is coming off a string of good starts in the minors, not three bad, three good and one bad.
We can only hope this is the team trying to muddy the waters of the market, stirring some speculation that he’s not a lost cause, perhaps if we have internet in him yet there is some value there… I mean, we can only hope.
No offence but since when is this Friedman character the voice of authority?
I have a raging hangover, so please take this into consideration.
Since Bob McKenzie retired.
Haven’t seen vitriol about the scouts on Borgault. I think the consensus is the team has been making much better bets since 2017 on, given the opportunity. The GM makes the first round pick in most cases. I can’t honestly lay Broberg on the scouts, that wasn’t telegraphed until Holland arrived.
The organization thinking that adding a 3rd round pick to get a middle 6 at best forward as opposed to a high end goalie prospect is the part I take issue with. Those are never the same value. If you have too many goalies….good. That’s a problem the team would love to have right now and the last decade +.
Don’t disagree with the premise, although I’ve seen plenty of gnashing of teeth about XB over Wallstedt (much the same with Broberg > Zegras, etc).
LHD Luca Munzenberger was the player chosen with the extra pick as compensation for moving down a couple slots.
Right, I’m not saying it was the scouts, it was the organization/hockey ops that is getting the gnashing. Especially at the top of the 1st round (Yakupov, potentially JP, Bro, X) making decisions the scouts didn’t necessarily agree with has happened on record before.
Put simply, I blame the GM, not the scouts, and haven’t seen people blame the scouts here.
The tell is Guerin is on record saying they tried to trade up the whole draft because they were sure Edmonton was taking Wallstedt.
I’m right there with you. Edmonton’s drafting prior to Chiarelli was putrid, and that was even factoring in the turnaround under MacT. I was beside myself that they didn’t draft Jenner in the second round, seemed like such a slam dunk. So many, many, missed opportunities to right the ship over the years. Intentionally not drafting Parise. Woof. Parayko playing in our back yard going unnoticed. Brutal. Barely scratching the surface.
That’s news to me; wild stuff.
Munzenberger was a rather severe overdraft too. Don’t think he is trending very well at present
Defense first prospects can be like that.
Desharnais comes to mind, Kemp as well.
Although none of whom were drafted so early.
Calling Bourgault ‘middle 6 at best’ on draft day is crazy.
His Draft year NHLe was almost even with Zegras’ a couple of years earlier (32 to 33) and his Draft +1 was better (41 to 35).
How much better is Kulak than Broberg in a third pairing role? This position and either of the 4th line wingers is the spot where players break into the NHL.
We have an 8th overall not playing in the NHL as his AHL time is done. Broberg needs to play in the NHL.
Kulak is way ahead of Broberg.
Brett Kulak
22 GP, 1-1-2, -8 (11-19 at. 5v5)
0 points in last 13 GP
15:12 ATOI, no role on PP, 5th wheel on PK (plays when another D is in the box)
OK-ish underlying numbers
Kinda wondering what he does that’s worth $2.75 mil. And with 2 more years, how he might be seen to have positive trade value.
Dom at the Athletic is out with his updated player cards and Kulak is pegged at an $800K player.
https://theathletic.com/5015509/2023/11/30/nhl-player-cards-pacific-division/?source=user_shared_articleNHL Player Cards: Pacific Division
This is the third coach who has played other d-men ahead of Broberg. Currently, it is Kulak and Vinnie. Before it was Russell and Bear. Lagesson and Kulikov? Niemo?
There is something about Broberg’s game that isn’t sitting well with the decision makers.
He’s like Bouchard in terms of lack of urgency but without the offensive flair. Plus, he hasn’t seemed to progress much over the past couple of years.
You cannot progress unless you play. He was more than adequate in his role in the two months he was actually allowed to play last year.
Broberg was only ready last year, and did very well during the two months he was a regular. Only one coach chose not to play him. And that coach got himself fired.
Knobby hasn’t had a chance yet because he is not familiar with the players, and it was an emergency situation when he arrived. And had to put the tire fire out and get familiar with the players before making changes.
The Campbell situation is a mess that gets cleaned up by shipping him + assets out which depletes a stark cupboard, or a summer buyout which then costs the team an upgrade in at least 1 if not 2 positions.
Kulak and Foegele are fine enough, but due to the Soup that Kenny spilled all over the kitchen, they are luxuries the team can no longer afford. Trading Kulak saves enough $ that the drop in play between him and Broberg (or Niemo or Gleason, or veteran $1M D) has to be done. Same goes for Foegele when Holloway is healthy. Moving those 2 are the primary options out of the Campbell contract. Unless of course Jarmo KK has one more goofy move in CBJ before he gets fired – which can’t be too far away
Petrov was drafted all the way down in the 6th round, 180th overall.
With the draft pick Kyle Dubas refused to accept to trade the Oilers the rights to Hyman.
Holland does not believe in developing players it’s easier to sign veterans like Erne, Gagner in the bottom 6 and more dynamic forwards in the top 6 then to deal with the growing pains of young players. The league keeps getting younger and younger up front yet Holland is running the same playbook when he had no cap and unlimited Little Ceasars money. I hope the door doesn’t hit his ass on the way out.
It is more accurate to state Holland lets youth percolate in the minors while he fills the big club with vets – many on short term deals – until he/coaches feel the kids are ready.
You can’t blame Holland for Bouch, Holloway, Broberg getting limited minutes when up here. Or for Lavoie not making the team out of camp. Holland is paying full pop when these kids are in Edmonton.
I hate that percolator comparison so much that I threw mine in the trash. Sure your later picks need years of development but when your 1st rounder 4 years ago is sitting in the bleachers tell me how that is working out for Broberg.
The amateur scouts have done a spectacular job with later-round D over the past 8 years or so.
Marino, Kesselring, Desharnais, Bear, Jones, Niemeleinen, etc. Wanner’s trending.
Almost all of them play for other teams now, but that’s not on the scouts.
Several of them were directly traded out of town by Ken Holland, including Marino, Jones, Bear, Lagesson & Kesselring.
Return from those trades still on the team are Foegele & Kulak & their combined $5.5 million cap hit.
Marino didn’t want to be here and how many of these others are playing in the NHL today?
Lagesson currently on Leafs roster.
All but Ethan Bear (injured at World Championship while on an expiring contract) are in the NHL right now.
Bear will be back in NHL when he is physically able. Will be interested to watch his next interaction with Kasperi Kapanen.
Aside from Marino, who (like Fox) had zero intention of playing for the team that drafted him, how many of those players are better than Kulak?
Getting anything for Marino was a win and, as of now, the Oilers have a prospect who is massively exceeding draft day expectations and putting himself on the map to maybe have a career – Shane LaChance.
I keep posting about how Broberg needs to play, needs to play, needs to play – I remember posting about the same a few years back with respect to Lagesson and fuming when Brandon Manning was playing over him.
I got vicarated for posting that, while I understood it, I didn’t like the inclusion of Kesselring in the Bjugstad trade.