Ziggy did a better job of protecting her hedgehog in this photo than the Oilers did protecting the puck on Friday night. If the visitors play as badly today against the New Jersey Devils, those delayed waiver transactions and demotions to the Bakersfield Condors could come sooner than later. If this team leaks as badly for the next six games, some significant changes would have to be contemplated. It won’t happen.
Why? the team is too talented. David Tomasek will score a goal. Perhaps this is the day. There are issues. For one, captain Connor McDavid has played over 10 minutes with Leon Draisaitl (43 minutes), Andrew Mangiapane (28), Trent Frederic (27) and David Tomasek (12). Time with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? 42 seconds. Zach Hyman? Less than zero.
Coach Kris Knoblauch put the Glimmer Twins together to start the season, but it didn’t rhyme. Part of the issue may have been the curious decision to place Trent Frederic on the No. 1 line. By the way, Frederic is a middle-six winger when he’s at his best, suspect the coaching staff will use him there eventually.
Draisaitl has played 43 minutes with McDavid, 24 with Frederic, 17 with Nuge, 14 with Jack Roslovic, 14 with Mangiapane. The current bets on right wing are Tomasek and Roslovic, and that’s going to take some time. I think Hyman and Matt Savoie could be the answer. We’ll see. Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie is just sitting there, like a perfect fit staring at you in a coffee shop at 2am. I don’t know how the hell Knoblauch stays the course. Must starch his shirts.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 1-1-0
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 2-1-1, five points in four games
I have the road trip 2-2-1 so the team isn’t under the Hudson River yet, but could be with a loss today. The five-on-five goal shares by line (using centers as proxy) is damned fascinating today:
- 97 & 29: 43 mins, no goals, 68 pct shots, 75 pct expected goals
- McDavid: 23 mis, 1-1 goals, 52 pct shots, 53 pct expected goals
- Draisaitl: 21 mins, 1-0 goals 50 pct shots, 48 pct expected goals
- Nuge: 29 mins, no goals, 59 pct shots, 48 pct expected goals
- Frederic:23 mins, 1-0 goals, 46 pct shots, 42 pct expected goals
- Henrique:: 28 mins, no goals, 50 pct shots, 34 pct expected goals
- Philp/the rest: 21 mins, 1-3 goals, 71 pct shots, 57 pct expected goals
I think these numbers show there’s no reason to panic. I am disappointed Noah Philp hasn’t played recent games, his goal share runs counter to the indicators. It’s a small sample, for me Philp is a strong option for multiple reasons. Scratching Adam Henrique or Kasperi Kapanen might raise a commotion, but Philp brings some things and he’s a young bull.
Condors just pouring in on the last 10 minutes.
Baracuda breaking out by Griffith just pestering the activating d-man and his rushed pass is picked off at the blue by Hutso who goes in all alone and buries the go-ahead goal with 3:30 to go.
Unassisted but Griffith with a big assist.
Condors give up a clean 2 on 1, the carrier decoys the pass and rips one short side under the bar.
1-1/
Summarizing!
Lafreniere, like the Pink Panther, strikes again for his 8th goal of the season. Now has goals in four straight, and one would think he merits consideration for POTW in the Dub.
Lewandowski picked up a helper.
Wakely did not incur soup.
Berry did not dress.
The Jarventie goal:
https://x.com/bcurlock/status/1979751627738493301
Josh Brown destroy a Barracuda coming across the line – whistled down for a penalty as the hit was clean except maybe a bit late. A couple Barracuda looking to engage and Stilman and Clattenbrug engage but its Josh Brown that finds the dance partner and scores the KO – plays to the crowd on the way to the bench.
Hamblin and MAX JONES watching as Stilman, Clattenburg and Brown engage.
Max Jones gets a ton of top 6 and PP minutes though 1.5 games.
Jarventie cleans up the rebound the Leppanen shot.
1-0.
15 moimutes in to the first the shots were 7-0 for the Barracuda – they are 12-7 Condors.
Low event period in Bakersfield.
Ingram stops all 7 shots but no high danger and just a couple medium danger – one was a shot pass from the side boards that was going in the corner but got deflected on not – solid position save.
Condors very low event offensively – most noticeable of the “talked about”, probably Samanski who seems to find the puck in open space quite a bit.
Connor Ingram has seven saves on seven shots, a couple of screens he looked calm on. Early days of course.
It’s funny. Connor Ingram was one of my few early calls in his career before he spiked In Arizona.
Sean Durzi and Gabe Villardi were a few others. I guess it’s only a matter of time until they’re Oilers too.
Willy Lindstrom was the guy I wanted for the Oilers. I was thrilled when they got him. On the other hand, I was made as hell when Slats grabbed Ken Linseman, who turned out to be an all-time favourite. 🙂
Yeah. Me too. Funny how that works. He’s a rat until he’s our rat.
Acquiring Linseman at that time was akin to trading with the Flames.
Betting there was a rookie dinner and party in the big Apple. Looks like a 3 day hangover for some
These bad losses would be a lot easier to swallow if we were using them as reps for the young guys. Instead they are burried or sitting on the bench, and we’re losing anyways.
You want chemistry, start rolling the lines
This is the oilers way, tried and true. Make sure all players who aren’t the stars know they can’t be counted on. It’s not easy stripping confidence and ruining a dressing room, but somebody’s gotta do it.
Don’t disagree but Savoie was almost at 15 minutes today, more than:
Lazar
Tomasek
Henrique
Frederic
Kapanen
Roslovic
Mangiapane
Holty did just say both Akey and Carfagna are expected back in the near future.
More undersized offensive D might not be the help needed. But get back and start playing and lets see
I would prefer them in the Condors lineup over Mason Millman.
Same skaters for the Condors so Akey and Carfagna still hurt.
This has become a thing for Akey even as young as he is.
Griffith-Marjala-Hutson
Jones-Samanski-Rh. Pitlick
Re. Pitlick-Hamblin-Jarventie
Clattenburg-Copponi-Petrov
Dineen-Leppanen
Stillman-Brown
Millman-Prokop
Ingram
It’s obvious the core is tired they’re making mental mistakes 2 years in a row with very little downtime. So what does K.K do he pounds these guys into the ground with more minutes. Come on K.K play the fresher gang Magpie-Savoie-Howard-Philp-Podkolzin. I hope Ingram gets in the zone quickly because I’m tired of watching average goaltending sink us year after year after year. Gregor should not be comparing Dubnyk to Skinner they play different styles and if Bowman pours starter money into Skinner we are hooped.
Are they tired and making mental mistakes or are they “pacing” themselves after 2 straight cup final appearances? Feels like a case being disinterested in October hockey.
I’m concerned that 29 & 97 are doing very little 5×5 and using them on the PK will wear them further. The coaches lines have made no sense (10 w/97 & 29) was pounding a square peg into a round hole. The turnovers by 2 and 25 are piling up. The PP misses Hyman and Tomacek is not finishing.
I’d like to see Ingram get going too, but right now, the issue is what’s happening in front of the goalies.
Tired?
The “short” off-season was still 3 months and they didn’t break a sweat in exhibition.
Tired? Pffft they haven’t broke a sweat yet.
Looks like they were hoping it would be easy and it’s not. Stallion’s have been consistently outplayed by opposition
Coach treating first 10 as exhibiton as usual
If the ‘short’ off season is a killer, how did the great teams of the past win multiply? Or more recent recently? A short off season is relative, those teams had shorter recovery than their contemporary teams
Ingram is an average goaltender.
Per Woodley, for his 1.5 years as a starter for Arizona prior to his issues last season, he was a top 10 goalie in the league – adjusted.
Evan Bouchard this season:
5 games played
— 0 goals
— 0 assists
— 0 points
— -3 rating
— 11 giveaways (4th most among defensemen)
Part of our problem
Exactly! He is not alone…..
What do you suggest be done?
Thought so.
Easy, bench him for a period. Send a message—obvious thing to do.
Why bench Bouchard and not bench Nurse? or Drai?
I agree with benching a star player. This has more effect than a bottom player on limited minutes. Bouch came up because I pointed out his stats.
Because it’s been multiple game with majors gafs, an earlier season pattern for years..
Yup, ANOTHER bad start to the year for Bouchard – every year.
ALL of the other top players, but for Nuge, join him – Nurse, McDavid, Drai.
A truly unique player – floor to ceiling shift to shift, game to game
At least there is a Condors game to watch tonight at 8.
They were DYNAMIC last Saturday – of course, as dynamic as they were with offensively, they were equally AWFUL defensively – the AHL contract pair of Millman and Prokop, fair enough, but Dineen/Leppanen was awful. As bad as Leppanen was, Dineen made him look like prime Niedermayer out there he was bad.
I expect a much stronger game from that pair (hopefully one, or both, of Akey/Carfagna are healthy – no idea) and Ingram in the net!
Very interested to see how Ingram performs in the next month or so. Will he end up being a legit call up option????
He is 100% objectively a better goaltender than Pickard when he’s anywhere near his top game.
When he’s at his top game, he is better than non-heater Skinner.
We’ll see how it goes.
Maybe they gave knobby the extension too early.
Mcdavid and Drai should not kill penalties. Too many chances for bruises or worse. Plenty of other guys should own that job.
Drai cannot play 25 min a night. That’s too big of a body. Mcdavid shouldn’t play 25 min a night either.
put Podkolzin Drai and Savoie together. It’s a very easy decision.
Sadly I think given his lack of NHL experience Knobby is out of his depth. One thing to coach baby Connor, another for the adult version
Not an easy job to be sure having 3 elite offensive players and trying to manage their games. But this team needs a leader, that does not defer to anyone on the team. He is supposed to build them up better, because what the team does isn’t quite enough yet
Two rookies in a row. I have said they need a coach with enough gravitas and personality. Have also said who I thought it should have been given who was available at the time
I fear they are being coached to a level down from what they should be doing. McFarland talked about thinking outside of the box, he probably doesn’t have enough pull to do anything significant
The Oilers should be playing like the panthers, it suits their core players. Aggressive and on the right side of the puck. They wouldn’t cheat so much I think if they felt the system was working
Maybe they weren’t fast enough last year to play that way, but they are this year
The other side of the coin is that the owner is not micro managing finances
As a GM and knowing that, you give the coach an extension so they aren’t coaching scared. But, you are also looking to see what that looks like
The caveat is that a replacement that would be different is not an obvious one
🎯
Scratching Philp for three games in a row after his best outing as a professional, Knoblauch is coaching to lose his job in quick order.
Let’s be honest. We are losing games because our best players are not at their best. The bottom two lines are not the problem and doesn’t really matter how you configure them. Connor, Leon, Bouch, Nurse not getting the job done consistently. Giving up shorties and not scoring on the PP can’t be blames on bottom 6 players or tenders for that matter. Don’t think yo can blame coaching either. Until our top players find their game the struggles will continue.
Can we all agree Noah Philp has learned his lesson?
He has repented enough….
Coach is going to wait until he’s 30 and too slow so that he can justify why he sat him.
I wonder if he’s banged up and we don’t know about it……?
I commented about his goal share, and some where it was pointed out that a couple of GA for that line where the flukey bad goals. So to me there is no reason not to take advantage of his potential or that line
It’s hard to win when they give up a shorty & a pp goal then don’t score any on their own pp opportunities.
Despite the circumstances, I enjoyed Lazar’s first as an Oiler at the end there.
Do you think Lazar has won the 4c job & Philp the 3c job?
Knoblauch changes things up so often I can’t see either of them being a lock for either slot.
Might not be able to take Lazar out of the lineup.
I think you have to that’s the Oilers way apparently
First goal?
Yeah you sit the next game
Might be time for a coaching change and yes I’m serious.
Curtis with a frickin’ Lazar beam with 1.7 ticks left. Too little, too late though
That was a devil of a pass and a devil of a shot.
The details were in the Devils.
Yup – but scoring when it doesn’t matter will help with his next contract.
So is it the goalie?
Nope.
Maybe special teams?
Nope, it’s the coach.
When I was going through the stats I mentioned, if Bennett hadn’t taken out Stolarz right off the bat I’m pretty sure the Leafs would have beaten them. Too bad
Yup.
and, that should have been a suspension for Bennett for at least as long as Stolarz was out. Head hits have to have heavy consequences.
Can we please complete a pass?
Are you sure Nuge needs to be the 3c?
Bowman needs to bring in a coach to fix the PP … they’ve gone from historically best to completely awful in the span of two seasons under KK.
How ’bout removing Bouchard while he’s coughing up pucks and odd man rushes to start.
Nuge x 2!
This is the third year in a row where we’re using the first two weeks as an extension of training camp. This s**t has to stop. Be ready to start the season.
Yeah. I’d like someone to ask the coach how moving Philp out is working out? Lazar adds a lot to the team. Might as well waive him so he can play in another city since KK doesn’t value him.
I know it’s October, there are injuries on defense – but everyone has injuries now. Team is playing disinteresed but for a few.
I sure hope the Jays can come back. Need to get my sports fix from somewhere. What was Schneider thinking. Little, really?
That was a $9.25MM giveaway that ended up in the back of the net.
Nurse has become such a soft player. Weak on his stick, slow on his skates. No hockey sense whatsoever.
In garbage time. Bouchard had a 2nd game of blunders when the game was being contested. Bouchard has also kneecapped the power play.
one has nothing to do with the other
$20 million in cap hit does.
Which Oiler provided Nurse with an outlet? Nobody. It was 3 on 1 on Nurse with no Oiler available to Nurse.
He was trapped to his backhand like a pee wee hockey team would trap a poorly coached team. He should see that coming from a mile away. Get your freaking head up and see that they have 4 defenders on one side of the ice.
Poor hockey sense and now he thinks he doesnt need to play physical.
Where were the other four Oilers? Everyone had fled the zone already.
Wow
Annnnnnnnd, back to dog shit!
2 in another highlight
And almost another!
Man he’s in the clouds
This is the first game I’ve been able to watch this year and this team looks absolutely terrible.
Like genuinely awful.
Done. Better options to waste my time on today.
Yep, Im out
Shorty? Boo
The Oilers rocking low PDOs with McD and Drai is so bizarre.
I really think the Oilers lack of scoring is, in part, coaching. Same thing happened last year for stretches.
Right in the yap, thankfully Frederic isn’t made of Glass.
Missig Hyman, Walman and Regula and it shows. Offense looks anemic, defense looks chaotic.
Just thought McD and Drai would be having a bit more impact on the games thus far.
They miss them, but that shouldn’t change things that much. Other teams roll along pretty well even with significant injuries. There issues are of a different variety to me
Their top guys are getting easily outplayed by the opposition’s best.
Lack of urgency, getting outworked, low percentage decisions. They look like rookies alot of shifts.
Coach has ice time to send the message with. I dont think he has the balls to do it
At work so not watching the game, sounds like it would mek me medd
I went through a bunch of stats trying to find some correlation of things that the last 6 Cup winners had, and how it compares to the Oilers. GF/GP, GA/GP, FOW%, Goals For Average/60, GAA/60, 5v5 SV%, 5v5 HDSV%, All SV%, All HDSV%, the two SV% rankings. There isn’t anything really
Obviously none of the numbers were bad, but not always the top. Maybe the closest thing was the All Strength SV% being stronger, but I think that points to the PK playing well
I think that ultimate success comes down to some pretty basic things. Having enough good players is first. Health is another main one, although I don’t think that health is completely random. There is luck involved, but also that some players can play their game well and watch out for themselves, others not as much
Roster balance comes in here, top players should be playing hockey first, and a smart coach doesn’t want his best talent banging around more than necessary, and needs them to understand that, and the other guys to know it’s on them to provide that
I think coaching is up there on the list. A team needs to be firing on all cylinders when the playoffs roll around, that’s the coaches main job, getting the people to be at their best, and special teams functioning well. There are always ups and downs, getting back on track quickly is important
Focusing on executing details personally, and following and trusting the system. Hopefully it is the right one for the players and the desired team identity. Developing that team identity and a finding role for each player, you need all of them, and they all need to be fully bought in and willing to give everything in playoffs
Having elite star players is an advantage, because if the team can do the things mentioned, they can be the difference, and usually are for strong teams that are doing things right. That doesn’t always mean high scoring, strong two way players that can dominate other good players may even be more important
Single events may just be that, but I think the players on teams that win don’t make many, or any, critical blunders. The margins are too thin, and scoring can be very hard the deeper you get. The goalies don’t have to have the highest SV%, but I think they need to be able to deliver timely saves in the toughest moments
Focusing on not making those errors especially when it counts most again points back to coaching, teaching guys strong puck management and game state awareness. They need to be doing that over the season, you can’t just turn it on. If as Struddy says you have one of those that will never get it, that’s on the GM to replace that player unless there is a strong reason not to. In that case you need a deep enough bench to sit that player when need be
Mental team strength and confidence comes from knowing you can play as well or better than the other team. Any other team. That is different than thinking you can come back from anything, that is a form of confidence, but is tiring to do, and leaves room for doubt
The Devils aren’t in the same class as the top teams. They have young players. The Oilers should own teams like this, often they do on the shot clock, but it’s not complete. The things I mentioned are on full display again
Leading in shots the whole game. Hits, faceoffs, penalties and blocked shots are pretty even. The problems
5v5 goals 1 / 1
PP 0/3 gave up a shorty
PK 1 / 2
Giveaways 20 / 9
Takeaways 3 / 8
Since I started typing this the Oilers gave up 3 more giveaways and another takeaway
Them becoming more stable in the process and less prone to getting away from the most important things is what I am watching for this season. Stan will keep working I am sure. But this is the last step that they haven’t been able to take, and they have to if they want a Cup or two
Bob just mentioned Hyman’s goal totals as an Oiler: 27, 36, 54 and 27.
Clearly, he likes scoring in multiples of 9.
A few early season observations. Coaching decisions are a bit baffling to say the least. Not sure why Philip is still sitting, after having arguably his best game in Oilers silks.
Draisatl also needs to be ‘called out’ by coach. He is coasting on his backhand waiting for a pass through 5-6 skaters. Unsurprisingly these passes often end up with a scoring chance… off the rush for the wrong team. Full 2 minutes for one unit on the power play is beyond stupid. I’d give them a minute, then they start switching.
The minutes being played by top players is nonsensical in a season where your top players will be getting zero rest, and a whole ton more travel. Not forward thinking at all.
Not sure what the offensive scheme is but taking to the net does not seem to be part of the plan. Enter zone and curl back along boards- yup that’s part of the plan.
signed confused and frustrated early season fan.
yes I know it’s early.
once again our lines are totally different than preseason.
positives- goalies have been decent and defensive play has been ok.
Agreed on all points. Its still pre season for the Oilers though. They play a 72 game regular season so lines aren’t set yet
Also so far Brown looks like a contract might have been worth fighting for over Mangiapane. I take positives back. Oilers defensive play and awareness is seriously lacking at the moment.
They seem to be playing in the O zone for possession on the walls. Guys don’t swarm the net when the pucks there like many teams do, seem to be ready to head to the corner in case the puck goes there, and if they get it they are so spread out there is no play to make except up the wall or to the point, but of course there is nobody in front – in case the shot goes wide I presume. Thus trying to force it through players or a maze of them and turnovers happen
Adam Oates last year said he thinks some teams are too spread out, and most players can’t score if it’s like that, other than the top players. And now even the Duo can’t
Net front is the hard area though. Not enough players willing to go there. They’re satisfied with attempting the low percentage plays from the outside because there is less traffic there
Walman and Regula will make this team so much better. Emberson culpable on both goals against.
Nurse looking like playoff Nurse at the moment too. He does NOT deal with pressure well at all. Jersey is a fast forechecking team. Oilers Kryptonite.
Recall last year LT talking several time about the large gap between the Oilers ceiling and floor. This still holds true. They can look awful, then in an instant create a great scoring chance and goal like the one RNH scored.
Update: McDavid will never score another goal 5×5 again.
I mean, what they hey, right?
Hey, a top half of the net shot and goal!
Papa Nuge comes up huge.