Photo by Fawn Mitchell
Evan Bouchard had one of those nights on Thursday versus the New York Islanders. He is a supremely confident player, and that gets him into some bad situations (the turnover by Mathew Barzal) that could easily be avoided. Bouchard is a fantastic player, he and Mattias Ekholm are enjoying an exceptional five-on-five start to the season (66 percent expected goals, 43-20 shots) but single events can have enormous importance while also being single events.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 1-1-0
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 2-1-1, five points in four games
That was an opportunity missed, and as easy as it might be to blame Bouchard, the backpasses to nowhere and lack of care with the puck earned this team a humbling experience. Two points wasted in October counts the same as if it were April. Kris Knoblach may want to sit Evan Bouchard for a game, but it’s kind of cutting off your nose to spite your face. Bouchard is needed, and yes, he needs to take care of the puck and help this team outscore. I think backing off his minutes would be a fine idea, perhaps when Jake Walman returns the team can increase the minutes played by the second pair.
QUICK NOTES
Nuge-Draisaitl-Roslovic did great work in 9:13 of five-on-five play They delivered 7-6 shots, 1-0 goals (Nuge!) 50 percent expected goals and 1-2 HDSC. Roslovic did himself much good with four shots and two high-danger chances. I like the line plenty, hope to see it again.
Podkolzin-Frederic-Kapanen played 7:31 (all numbers five-on-fve), 3-0 shots, 80 percent expected goals and 3-1 HDSC. I like the line but would still prefer Podkolzin on the 29 line. Having said that, it looks to me as though Knoblauch likes the trio. Unfortunate penalty by Frederic late in the game, he had two shots and two HDSC (plus a pair of giveaways added to the penalty on the other side of the ledger) and we’ll see if this line lasts the road trip. It might.
Mangiapane-McDavid-Tomasek should work. In 6:34, the line went 2-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 41 percent expected goals, 1-2 HDSC. Part of the problem is Tomasek needs eleventy chances before he scores (apparently, he hasn’t scored yet). Including power-play time, he has eleven HDSC, 10 shots and no goals. I like his game, but he needs to score. If he doesn’t score on Saturday, I’m going to tell you the Guyle Fielder story again.
Howard-Henrique-Savoie playyed 4:18, 1-4 shots, six percent expected goals and 0-2 HDSC. I don’t like the line at all, mentioned it yesterday. I do like the two rookies, very much, but not on the fourth line with Henrique. They’re going to get lost.
Some of the comments yesterday referenced the 1990 Kid Line, but that proves my point. By the spring of 1990, Joe Murphy had 152 NHL games, Adam Graves had 141 NHL games and Martin Gelinas had 52 NHL games. Only one of those names is a comparable for Matt Savoie and Ike Howard, and believe it or not Mark Lamb sometimes joined the Kid Line and he had 103 NHL games at the time. I’m all for a Kid Line in the playoffs, but these kids have to play, and a lot, this winter in order to bring it in the spring. Last night both played fewer than 10 minutes at five-on-five, and frankly both earned more playing time than they received. Savoie drew two penalties and Howard is making more plays because the game is slowing down for him. I’m hopeful Kris Knoblauch stays the course, with a slight increase in playing time for both, and only one at a time on the fourth line. Savoie and Howard do not resemble Murphy and Graves in 1990 when it comes to actual NHL experience. Important to close the GP gap and play them up the depth chart.
On defense, I thought the best pairing was Kulak-Emberson by some margin. As ghastly as Bouchard played, Darnell Nurse was having some troubles too. Lovely pass by Emberson.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will be our feature guest and we’ll load you up for Oilers, Elks, NFL, MLB action and more. We’re live on Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm today.
Edmonton Oilers’ pending roster decisions mean tough choices for management
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6720931/2025/10/17/edmonton-oilers-roster-ike-howard-alec-regula/
Summarizing!
Park had a PP goal (2nd goal of season) and two assists in a huge Michigan win.
Fischer scored his 2nd goal of the year.
Wakely had an assist and went 11-of-18 (61.1%) on the dot.
Lewandowski, Barnett and Berry were forbidden the gift of soup. The latter two were especially impressive, somehow avoiding the scoresheet when their teams scored 10 and 11 goals respectively.
Remember when Harper’s Hair used to marvel the never ending prospect depth of the LA Kings …
https://heavy.com/sports/nhl/los-angeles-kings/cody-ceci-brian-dumoulin-contracts-criticized/
Blake and now Holland frittered it all away.
Nathanial Day, freshly demoted after NOT getting the start last weekend in the AHL, posts a 27 save shutout in the Coments home opener.
He has now given up 1 goal on 167 shots over 4 games in the ECHL….. he was very good in the playoffs as well
The Paul Fischer pop is upon us.
Bowman said he had over 100 views of this guy over the years and he was a hard target.
He’ll be signed after this season I presume – I don’t know where he’ll end up but he’s a real prospect that is not often talked about.
I was impressed that Bowman the Younger managed to get a RHD out of the offer sheets as extra compensation, at all. Hearing that Fischer was a targeted add is music to the ears.
Fischer is a LHD though.
That said, you may yet be right though as the Oilers also have STL’s 3rd in 2028 from the offer sheet fiasco, so they well could get a RHD with it if the Oilers keep the pick.
Nice catch, thanks, Tarkus. The ol’ rememery banks need a-tunin’, me thinks.
If GeorgeXS is still around…
I’m curious. Now Draisaitl is one of my favorite players, but so far this year, he’s done 66 minutes of cardio at 5v5. He doesn’t have a single point yet at 5v5.
I wonder how many 60 consecutive minute stretches 29 has gone previous without posting a crooked number?
In fairness. xGF% I’d 65.64% which is an excellent number
I side with Gregor on expected anything. It’s a sign of positive play, but if bubble players are expected to produce to stay, minted players have to also, not that they get sent down or dealt, just earn your pay
I don’t want to see another season of the Oilers and all of their talent undershooting, they need to figure it out soon. Or Stan does
Rishaug and others were laughing at Strudwick when he pegged McDavid for 38 goals. Apparently Connor was making noise about shooting more but to me those quotes were after leading questions.
The reality is that his shot is in the bottom quartile. He’s got some crafty shots in tight but his main wrist shot takes forever to get off his stick and has just ok pop.
Add to that, he’s simply not wired to think shot even if all of the evidence is that defenders and goalies are playing pass. The pass to Stecher was as poor as any of Bouchard’s turnovers. He had another where Tomacek found him coming right down Main Street and he stick handled out of the slot into the corner (he did draw a penalty).
This version of McDavid tops out at 35 goals and 80 assists. Good value for 12.5 million but certainly not a 20 million dollar guy.
I have a feeling Barger is going to be the hero tonight.
I imagine Skinner gers the start against Jersey whereas Pickard will get his table scraps on the 2nd half of the back-to-back against the Red Wings.
Jack and Louie said something about Pickards record against NJ (as opposed to Skinner’s)..I don’t remember the details but the suggestion was Pickard might be the better choice against Jersey
But who knows
I disagree Pickard should start in Jersey. Regardless of the bad mistakes and needless penalties Skinner still lost. Win and you’re in as far as I’m concerned.
The elephant in the room? The minutes played by 29 and 97.
If you didn’t follow the NHL, and came from another planet quite frankly… if you looked at the Oilers TOI, you’d think their top d pairing was McDavid-Draisaitl. Both played clear of 25 minutes last game.
That’s not a recipe for success.
They both have had 2 of the shortest off seasons in Oilers history with a even more condensed schedule with the Olympics. K.K keeps pounding them like they’re 23 years-old. Somebody needs to relay the message to K.K that too much ice time is detrimental too forwards. Roll 4 lines and start trusting your players if he keeps pounding Leon-Connor it won’t surprise me if one are not both get injured because of overusage.
Oiler coaches always seem to chicken out on team building at the first hiccup. Hopefully Stan is communicating with him, I think they are short a centre. Or maybe use Philp
It’s easy for me to say when it’s not my job on the line but I thought K.K would lighten up with the extension. Of course vets are going to have a way longer leash on mistakes compared to the newer players. In saying that if Bouchard is having a bad game play someone who is playing well more minutes. Play your hot hands and quit trying to force things. We only have 8 goals not counting empty netters in 4 games against some shitty teams
If they are adding PK minutes to 29 and 97, they need to roll back 5×5 minutes for them
Having players like 29 and 97 kill penalties always makes me cringe.
Sure if you’re down a goal late in the game or something, but I generally don’t like it. Both played 2:10 last game.
You obviously never want your star players getting injured blocking a shot, but for me, it’s just silly. Any marginal advantage of 97 killing penalties compared to a 4rth liner will pale in comparison the gap between these players at 5v5.
One of Emberson’s best games since Dec/Jan when he starting finding his game.
I just realized he’s at $1.3MM for two year, for some reason I thought it was closer to $2MM.
I would NOT waive this guy over Stecher and wouldn’t trade him unless there was decent value coming back. He is not THAT young but he is young and his games played are still very low. There is legit STRONG 3RD upside here at a cost-controlled level.
I would not waive him over Stecher who does not have a real upside even with some solid “can give some good minutes” upside.
Totally agree OP. He just needs reps. Stecher is what he is, Emberson has upside.
I was leaning on some of the same assumptions. Thanks for the spotlight.
That was about as bad a game as Evan Bouchard has ever had.
Once again, he has started the season not near the top of his game.
We all know the value that he will provide over time and in the playoffs but its definitely frustrating to watch what we saw last night.
I look for Bouchard not to take a month or two or three to find his game but to do so starting in Jersey tomorrow.
Oh, and Connor, please don’t prove CTS right – this is now three seasons in a row (two seasons and the start of this one) where you have not been the best forward in the league.
You aren’t “producing at will”, you aren’t producing with Drai, you aren’t able to make any wingers better, etc., etc., you make defensive mistakes, etc., etc. – i don’t know what is going on – his skating remains as elite as ever but his brain and hands aren’t where they once were – its been a while now.
It’s baffling to say the least. He looks disinterested. Maybe it’s just ‘let’s get the regular season over with ‘ but it’s hard not to notice.
Teams have had years to figure out how to defend Connor. He still has the skating, but he’s also not in that mid 20’s range where guys play more flat out, the crazy rushes. He’s also had a lot of wear and tear
It’s not easy coaching players like him. Especially him because he’s so unique in how he plays. MacKinnon is a sturdier player with blazing speed, but he’s still more typical in style. Crosby is a bull, great around the net, also plays a more typical game
I always say the blueprint is in house. Gretzky was also unique, and Sather hunted high and low to find wingers that could play with him and allow him to hit his heights. I don’t see that the Oilers have done that, although Bowman is more aggressive in searching
The other coaching part is helping Connor make adjustments to what he’s trying to do to counter the defenses used against him. I don’t see him or Leon doing much different, just trying to make what used to work easily work now. It is getting less effective, teams have the book
There were a lot of changes and it’s early so maybe they are working on it. I hope so. But I fear KK is not as inventive as what I’m suggesting they need to do. To put it in a few points I think they need to fix their breakouts so they can function regardless of the forecheck, which should help the rush game as KK has mentioned, they need to develop an attack that is more focused on the slot or key (net front), and they need to train the other players to work off of Connor creating chaos when he’s ripping around the O zone
It’s like what Gretzky did in a different way. He’s trying to break down coverage, but the other players need to be moving into open positions to give him options. A lot of times there aren’t any dangerous options and he forces something or it’s back to the point with no net front presence. Guys should be getting set up in great areas and loving it. Leon still tends to go to his office, but everyone knows then that’s where the play is going and it gets defended
Players need to slip into quiet ice which would usually be weak side and be ready for the puck. Or pick players for him, lots of things that can be done to evade coverage and get into a high danger position. It’s tactics to me, which is why the coaches need to help develop it
They also should attack more off of the wall. If you get a bit of a lane jump, and someone should be moving in from the other side to get a pass or rebound. The panthers did that too much to them last finals
Not play it to a corner or behind the net or the side. Go hard right at it. Some of the newer guys are more like that, hopefully it doesn’t fade off as usually seems to happen once they’ve been around a while
Seems like other top tier players are still crushing it, even getting more productive – MacKinnon, Kucherov come to mind.
McDavid has played most of his time with Leon Draisaitl as his winger.
There are no excuses.
McDavid’s per-82 scoring rates in the last two playoffs:
26G 105A 131P
In the playoffs! When things tighten up like crazy.
To me that looks like “producing at will.”
Sure, but I’m talking about over the course of the regular season, which matters.
I would also note that he did NOT score at will in the SCF this past season and, in fact, his awful defensive play was one of the top reasons for the loss.
I would also note that McDavid was 50% goal share in the playoffs (3-8 in the SCF), 41% without Bouchard and 46% without Drai.
I have to use Firefox ‘cuz I’m still getting blocked on Chrome…
Connection Failed
Error 30
2025-10-17 17:22:23 UTC
logo
What happened?
The proxy failed to connect to the web server, no web server IP is defined
Your IP: 68.145.***.**
Proxy IP: 45.60.96.243 (ID 101836-100)
Incident ID: 1836000410141302938-440127168914917967
SiteLock is the leader in Business Website Security Services.
Terms of use|Privacy Policy
Flush your cache on Chrome, maybe?
Tried that, no luck.
If you’re seeing a “Connection Failed / SiteLock” message:
That’s just your browser remembering the old server from before the move.
Try one of these quick fixes:
It’s my windows computer that I use firefox on and that is working fine now… I use Chrome on my 2 android devices phone and pad (Samsung). How do I do the above in Android?
This morning all is good. Don’t know which of your suggestions did the trick, but I’m super happy I again have access across my devices. CHEERS!
Do you remember the good old days?
I remember why I jumped in here.
To access the blog when it was hosted on GoDaddy, it was like you need to know the secret knock to get in.
I can’t remember all of the steps, but the first one was you had to click a link to the exact post from Twitter. Then you had to fight to login and time it just right. Only the regulars had the routine down. It was kind of fun.
For years my access was to click the link at the Oilersnation part of the Edmonton journal.
I posted above just to see what the new digs were like. It’s snappier all around- login, posting comments, refreshing page.
Using Chrome on Android phone
Thanks again for all your help Ryan, it’s much appreciated
Chrome on iPad also working fine.
maybe knobby should try playing Mcdavid and Drai 30 min together
im sure that will help the other lines create chemistry
“I wonder? would that work…?”
I wonder what Henrique could provide moonlighting in the Top6. He thinks the game at a very high level. I feel like he could run some games with 29 or 97 and be fairly effective on the wing.
Podz got paid specifically to play with 29. It’s crazy he’s not.
Savoie/97/Henrique
Mangiapane/29/Roslo
Frederic/Nuge/Tomasek
Kapanen/Philp/Janmark/Lazar
Send howard down.
Lets go
WHoops forgot about PODZ haha…
Savoie/97/Henrique
Podz/29/Roslo
Mangiapane/93/Tomasek
Kapanen/Frederic/PhilpJanmarkLazr
WHen Rico hits a wall..swap him for Mangiapane
That’s pretty good C depth down the middle.
Can’t recall a more WTF 1st period ever… like really, ever! It’s one game, hopefully everyone is reset for Saturday.
Is it all about giving Skinner more reps? Keeping him fresh? Seems he does well when Bouch throws a few curves his way.
Yup. While Bouch was bad – he was not the only one making terrible puck decisions.
I like howard and think he will be a very good player for years to come… but it is clearly being telegraphed that he is going to bakersfield once this roadtrip is complete.
Would suspect major lazar is going with him.
When can we start discussing Henrique……. it seems to be an elephant in the room that his play has dropped off quite a bit. He seems to sewer the numbers of anyone who plays with him. Maybe after his 1000th game they will let Philp back to work his magic on the 4th line.
I hope for regulas sake that he is ok…. perhaps several days off getting rest and relaxation will mean he can play again next week,he was showing particularily well and in my opinion has passed stecher on the depth chart. stech had some egregious plays the last 2 games that are not even remotely ok.
I think Rico is just being miscast on the 4th line. HE still has offensive instincts. I think he could be this season’s Perry if he got a chance to play in Top 6 and net front like Perry did.
A problem might be Henri can’t be the transporter, so with wingers that aren’t the line is cooked. He’s probably best as a winger that takes draws with a C that can get the puck up ice. Maybe Connor or Leon would work. Maybe they need a C like that, there are only 2 and they sometimes play together. It’s tough to play C in the NHL without the boots, a lot of ice to cover, especially on this team
Part of me is ready for him to have a night off – easy switch with Philp – if nothing else, so he knows its an option.
At the same time, he is the main PK forward right now – and the PK has been good (he was on for the GA last night, lost the face-off).
I would note that Henrique has been on the ice for zero goals against at 5 on 5 this season (zero goals for but zero against). Philp is 1-3 goals.
Maybe the Freddy experiment at center should be over, especially with that needless penalty that crushed any hope of an Oiler victory on Long Island. At least Rico can win a draw.
Put Philp back in with Podz & Kap and drop Freddy down with Rico & Savoie. See how Freddy likes fourth line minutes.
That third line was good against the Rangers, well, as good as any line and he’s got a goal in two games as 3C. His FO% is 46.7%, it’s not great but it’s a two game sample size. I’m not saying to lock Frederic in to centre but I’m not giving up on any experiments based on 2 games of decent results.
I’m not saying I agree with coach’s deployment of the forwards at all but just responding to the specific.
Lt has moved the blog to a new web host.
We lost the post from the Islanders last night due to delays in switching from one web host to the other.
If you see a little “Not Secure” message or a warning on the site right now, don’t panic! 😊
We just finished moving the site over to a new and much faster home. When you change the website’s address like this, it takes a little bit of time for the internet to catch up and issue a new security certificate — that’s the thing that puts the lock symbol 🔒 in your browser bar.
Right now, that lock is just updating. It can take anywhere from a few minutes to about an hour for everything to refresh around the world. Once that’s done, the “Not Secure” message will disappear all by itself, and the lock icon will come back.
So in short: the site is totally safe — it’s just doing a quick tech refresh behind the scenes. Thanks for your patience while the internet updates its locks! 🔐
Thanks. I was more than a little shocked when Firefox blocked me, was still able to get in after ignoring the warning.
Just checked my phone for access and currently Chrome is blocking access, “Connection Failed Error 30”. Can’t get in.
Firefox is now showing the “secure lock” icon.
Thank you for all the work you do to support our host. I know how much goes into the technical side of things but never gets noticed.
Thanks for everything you do here Ryan! It is appreciated.
And another thumbs up for the moving day gifs this week.😆
(actually tried posting this a couple hours ago but also got the ‘error 30’ redirect.)
Thank you for your service.
That’s OK – in his article, Mark Spector basically repeated my lost post on Bouchard, and then expanded on it.
Wait a minute.
https://x.com/puckempire/status/1978976890078531716?s=46
Well at least we know Bouchard will be well rested after the olympics.
Was thinking the same thing after it was Oilers 2 – Bouchard 2
Unfortunately, McD was the worst player on his line! He seems to be overthinking the game right now.
Bouch contributed to at least 5 high danger scoring chances. Sadly, 4 of them were for the Isles. Such an enigma…
McD had chances to shoot and passed instead. His comments about wanting to score more is BS.
Oh, it was more than four – I think there were four in the first period.
Our two highest paid defenders need to take lessons on defending
Prospectacle!
A sextet of NAmateurs shall toil this day.
Despite missing his team’s first two games whilst at Oilers camp, David Lewandowski leads the Blades with 12 points (4 + 8) in seven GP. Sassytoon commences a 3-in-3 weekend.
Meanwhile, the full complement of NCAA prospects see the ice today, including the 5-0 Michiganders who look poised to make another jump in next week’s rankings. Barnett earned an apple last night, his second his season.
Fischer likewise had an assist, giving him three points in as many games.
Wakely and Berry, which latter has yet to post a number of crookedness, round out the sched.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 3 p.m.(?)
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 3 p.m.(?)
UMass-Lowell (Wakely) @ 5:15 p.m.
St. Thomas (Berry) @ 7 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Namaka time.
This update had my ADHD brain scramble to check Lafrieniere’s stats. Which of course led me to the Blazers points list.
Looks like we should get eyes on this JP Hurlburt 17YO. Leading the team with 24 points in 10 games, and is positive on +/- whereas our Tommy is a big negative.
Hurlbert also leads the WHL in scoring–the next closest player has 16.
He actually leads the entire CHL in points, with the next closest at 19 (from the QMJHL).
At this pace, the Oilers have no shot at him without a first-round pick.