The Edmonton Oilers have been mostly boring this season, but things got interesting later on in the game versus the Montreal Canadiens. Coach Kris Knoblauch shuffled the lines and the tweaks included a push for both Ike Howard and Matt Savoie. Music! Both are a smart bet to win the day eventually, but that is not assured early this season or this season at all. They’ve earned a look. Now it’s time to prove that talent is ready to deliver.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) Actual 1-0-1
- Road: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) Actual 2-3-0
- At home to: Montreal (1-0) Actual 1-0
- On the road to: Seattle, Vancouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammaoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 4-3-1, nine points in eight games
The Oilers were 2-7-1 after 10 games in 2023-24, and 4-5-1 after 10 one year ago. There’s a chance to for Edmonton to arrive at the 10-game marker this season with six wins. That would represent a strong start, especially considering the uncertainty of the forward group heading into the season.
THE NEW LINES
Howard-McDavid-Mangiapane have played 4:22 this season, 1-1 goals, 2-1 shots and an expected share of 69 percent. My observation is Draisaitl is better with the rookies, no idea if it’s true. We have biases about the damndest things, the brain is running down its own track.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie have played 4:10 together, 1-1 goals, 2-3 shots and 24 percent expected goals. I like the look of this line, hope they cash. Now before you go off half cocked about the numbers above, experts tell me that 200 minutes (all numbers here five-on-five) is the point at which we can begin to draw conclusions. We need to hold back our water until the sample is more substantial.
The other two lines (Nuge with Henrique and Jack Roslovic and Frederic and Tomasek with Noah Philp in the middle) are interesting but it’s my opinion this part of the roster is still transitioning. I’ve got half a mind to suggest Nuge-Philp-Tomasek but I’m not sure it would go. Trent Frederic, when completely recovered from the high ankle sprain, might also be a good fit for that line.
Looking forward to the game, the Kraken are a fun team and are off to a strong start.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
The goaltenders have had some tough moments but this young Condors team is going to the school of hard knocks defensively. Taking care of the puck is important, especially in the defensive end. I don’t know when Connor Ingram will get the call, but will suggest he needs a few more games.
I’m not feeling like a trip to the bathroom is wise during any shifts by the defensemen. Luke Prokop might be my current favourite, but I really want Atro Leppanen and Damien Carfagna to succeed. Perhaps soon.
Colin Chaulk is playing the kids, and because of it there are growing pains. I know it sucks, but when it comes to development you can’t go fast enough to get there early. Prospects tell us who they are, every season.
The player to keep an eye on is Roby Jarventie. The Condors are bringing him along slowly (no btb’s early this season) but he’s absolute money and belongs at the next level. Rem Pitlick is going to earn an NHL contract, sure as hell.
The group of young players that have us more interested in this year’s Condors didn’t do much last night. Still, when discussing Viljami Marjala, Quinn Hutson and Josh Samanski, we know they’re in the AHL for a reason and consistency is the goal. The kids are playing, and are 2-2-0. It’s Tucson again tonight.
Please try Nurse at forward. He would actually be an awesome winger, and it would be addition by subtraction on the back end! (Assuming this is when Regula can draw back in or something…)
I really just think this is the sort of unconventional thinking that could help this team right now!!
Then we have a 9.25 overpaid winger. Teams need to be run on merit. He should sit.
This suggestion has been cropping up for years and is too easily dismissed imo. Maybe he would be overpaid but how do we know by how much?
So eh, what’s the timeline on Zack Hyman?
This team sure looks short on finishers.
Counting on a player coming back from wrist surgery may not be the best strategy.
True, best he doesn’t come back
I’ll be honest with you. I’ve watched Savoie and Howard. Now, I’m not saying they won’t have NHL careers, but I’m not seeing players who’re likely to be useful this season at least in terms of any positive impact.
The team needs to start running on merit and if that means McDavid and Bouchard slide down a peg or two, fine.
The amount of accountability this will enable when they work their way back up to their spots would be immeasurable.
If it ends up backfiring then it’s a character issue and they can sail on.
McDavid and Bouchard are examples of who I would choose. Currently there is a long list of potential candidates.
This is exactly why you play them in October, November and December. They need to play enough for the game to slow down. Howard has especially shown progress imo and I think Savoie arrived as a guy who the coach can trust. The offense will come but you have to play them.
97 with a bunch of 0s for a stat line. Not even a top 5 player for the game again.
Something has changed there
No offence to Ryan McLeod but he basically looks like Ryan McLeod out there.
Summarizing!
The bad news: Lafreniere’s goal streak was stopped at five games. The good news: he assisted twice tonight.
Wakely also picked up a pair of helpers.
Berry, clearly inspired by Wakely’s 1st NCAA goal last night, scored his own tonight.
Lewandowski and Fischer did not garner soup.
Joey Daccord stole it. Oilers better team more chances , Kraken more opportunistic .
Not going to take anything away from Daccord, he played very well, and I know the analytics won’t support this, but it just seemed like a good portion of the Oiler’s chances came from the outside. The Kraken did a good job keeping things on the perimeter and clogging up the middle to protect their goalie. I was hoping the Oilers would make things a bit tougher on him as I was watching.
Daccord played well, but the Oilers made it pretty easy for him. I didn)t see a lot of rebounds, or screen shots, or even deflections in front of the net, the sort of things that are challenging for a goaltender.
Also didn’t do a lot of two on ones, something the Oilers gave the Kraken way to many of.
Bouchard with a well deserved -3.
The coaches and his teammates need to sit him down and ask him to play more conservatively for a while and stop doing the ill advised pinches. Giving up odd man rushes every second shift isn’t going to get him on Team Canada.
There isn’t a reality in this universe or any other in which Bouchard makes team Canada.
While Bouchard has massive talent and contributes to scoring he has the capacity to give games away at any point. Forget the Olympics, no GM should chance that. I’ve never seen such an enigma as Bouchard.
I think Jack mentioned after Seattle 2nd goal that Bouch and Ek had been on the ice for the last 8 goals against. I might have heard it wrong, I was in the other room.
Yes he did.
Ekholm sporting a -7 on the season…Bouchard -10
Impressive. Neither should be in the Olympics
They’re struggling vs regular nhl talent. Would not go well vs the best.
It’s fine. The Oilers will benefit from the rest most of their Olympic hopefuls will get.
97 and 29 are the only ones that will make it
Ha Olympics. 2 played his way off that team after game 6. No way they risk it with such volatility.
I don’t get it. If I’m Oiler coaches and Bouch Im solely focused on improving his defending since that is what would hold him off of that team. Also if the plan is to play him 23 min a game he needs to prevent goals against the best in the league. He’s already proved his offensive ability.
Instead he has lost all focus on preventing goals
its common for a player to try to do too much right after signing a huge contract, thinking they have to do EVERYTHING to prove his worth.
He is probably being told to simplify his game and just go back to the playing style that brought him to this point.
Bouchard is worse than Nurse at defense.
Thankfully we have Pickard starting tomorrow.
They might have the second best goaltender tomorrow night too.
This team needs a goalie it’s not arguable at this point.
Skinner didn’t have a chance on any of those. Eberle can snipe.
The first goal? Watch it again. What is Skinner doing?
The second goal he is so overcommitted and unbalanced to his left side that he has to flail if the puck is passed to the right, which it is. Guy is always flailing and lunging. Time to move on from Skinner.
Never ending perimeter play and trying to pass it into the net. Would it kill someone to drive to the middle?
Potentially yes – attacking the middle of the ice is how goals are scored, but also how players get injured. This is where they miss Hyman the most … that guy is fearless.
Realistically, they should have at least one player willing to drive the slot on each line.
This play on the outside is driving me bananas.
Even just some traffic would be something. They seem to want every goal to be on a highlight package.
True, but look at the four lines and tell me which player might fill that role. Hyman is unavailable, there is no Kane or Perry any longer, and it doesn’t appear they are being coached to play that way.
Noted forward Darnell Nurse with a tip-in goal.
How many games does Bouchard need to gift the opposition before I’m allowed to question the contract?
Recall that Bouchard is shit to start every season.
Its not an excuse and its not acceptable but its notable because, if there is one thing we can be certain of, its his improved play as the season goes on. This is year 4 of it.
Well somebody seems to think it’s acceptable
4 years of exhausting themselves climbing out of the Bouch-hole.
Bouch needs to start bringing his lunch box to work instead of his Bouche bag.
How many games does McDavid get?
Maybe it was always gonna be sign and trade because he’s as disinterested as I’ve ever seen.
The Oilers are like the Jays tonight – can’t get good wood on anything.
That’s what she said.
Watching McDavid as a liability on the ice is a hell of a thing.
How many hope passes to nobody does he need to make?
Why is Skinner falling forward on saves?
Neck can’t support the stash
Mike Smith used to do this
Game over – what a terrible sequence by Bouchard.
Tomasek would be great at corn hole. He’s dead centre with every shot on goal.
From BouchBum to BouchBomb.
Maybe that goal gets him going. He has had a pretty rough start to the season.
I hope he gets it on the net more versus cracking more shin pads
Nobody will ever see it due to the camera being aimed at centre ice while the Condors were in the offensive zone on a PP but Marjala sets up Lepannen for his first North American goal.
All along in the slot I’ve been told.
3-0??
Yes
Rarely watch a full game, but is this game just… Not smooth at all? Lol.
Has Skinner been training with a soccer goalie? What the heck was that
Regula in Bouch out????
Perhaps look at Bouch’s d-partner who left him high and dry on a clear 2 on 1?
First goal was bad pinch by Bouch no?
Correct.
And the belly flop save comes up empty haha
Ha Skinner, nice form
Shin Pad assassinator learnt to lie down on the ice like Nurse.
Condors peperring Sabourin who is stoning them.
Are the Oiler not carrying the play and getting the better chances?
Holy Roslovic – doesn’t get much uglier than that shot attempt….
Roadrunner with a horrific own goal mouth giveaway and Damato makes it 2-0.
Kudos to the Condors for some solid offensive zone work before the bad play.
Can anyone explain what Skinner is doing on that goal against?
Overreaction when sliding across calmly in position stops it easily.
Make an ear save
Connor — shoot the puck when you’re in the slot. Thanks.
Why the F are Mcd and Drai playing PK in the first period of a regular season game with a one goal deficit?
They’ve played on every PK this season I’m pretty sure…..
Lines lasted about 2 shifts each lol
They are back – it was temporary.
10mins into the second McDavid is with Draisaitl and Podkolzin, now Tomasek, in 2 mins it will be Kassian.
One might think all the extra attention being paid to Marchment may be a result of his hit on Hyman last playoffs.
Really? It was barely a hit.
Oilers look energetic and creative so far. Just need to play some team defence and Bob’s your uncle.
They usually don’t have 9 shots until 5mins left in the 2nd.
Rhett Pitlick pressures the d-man who received a no-time pass, steal, drives down and rips one home for the 1-0 lead.
The defense constantly jumping up on the rush just to shat themselves is something.
Marjala with a wonderful set-up of Clattenburg for a point blank slot chance but goalie makes a good save.
So a poor Bouch pinch and a Skinner ‘chest first’ special!! Game on!
Looked awkward, first shot on net is ripped from the circle by Eberle. Nice and easy….
Terrible pinch from Bouchard
Woof, piss poor start.
Tripple Screen engaged:
@EdmontonOilers
@BlueJays
@Condors
I’m stressed!
Dang, LA with two solo homers in the 7th to take 2 run lead. Hopefully Jays bats wake up in next couple of innings. Yamamoto has been tough.
Blue Saturday.
Oh yea, GO OILERS!
Clatternburg get a top 6 promotion with Jarventie not playing back to backs – playing with Marjala and Hutson tonight.
He made the most egregious of all defensive zone turnovers last night so bit of an odd choice as its not like he looks on the cusp of breaking out offensively – he’s been fine but in the 4th line role he’s been playing.
He’s 20. He’s going to make mistakes. I’m not as convinced of him as many Oilers observers, but absolutely support playing him to see if those hands he displayed in preseason can find their way to the AHL.
I find the timing odd given his play last game.
Anyone seen “JP” lately? I used to enjoy our discussions here. JP from Boston.
Where do you park your car?
JP and I once had a discussion about Nurse might age.
Nurse is having a rough start to the season. Odd he’s leading d in 5v5 toi/game.
Darnell Nurse – 5v5 Stats (8 GP)
He has been brutal.
Its really odd. He was brought into the league as a shut down physical D that could play against elites. He is now below average at that ask.
Now he’s a non physical good skating D that can at times can support offense.
Oilers haven’t backed him off of a role that he is not excelling at. Coaches can be stubborn. Trust the numbers
Cooley has 7 goals in 8+games I would call that hitting it out of the park. Utah is definitely playoff bound they’re comprising a playoff type team. It’s too bad we didn’t chase after Peterka with Samanski and Lewandowski in the system. These are 4 solid men the Germans are producing some power type forwards and they’re my dark horse in the Olympics with Leon being the Captain.
A shame we didn’t have a RHD like Kesselring to send back in a trade
Like all of the long-shot teams it comes down to
I would love to see Germany make a surprise upset run to the semis (provided it isn’t at Canada’s expense). And I hope Samanski makes the team.
They have Grubauer who can get hot in a short tournament. His playoff stats are 26W-17L .910-SV 2.65.GA. We have 2 Cups with that quality of netminding. Skinner 26W-22L .893-SV 2.88-GA.
If you feel the need to bring Skinner into a conversation about the German Olympic team, I suggest you take a look at Grubauer’s playoff stats from 2014-15 and 2016-17 when he was the same age as Skinner.
Skinner was the one talking about Olympics was he not?
Cooley has 5 goals in the his last 4 periods.
Nick Schmaltz now second in league scoring with 6 goals and 15 points.
Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther also top 20 in scoring.
A 3rd overall pick is NOT a comparable for Issac Howard.
I think it’s important to have D with puck skills and some offensive ability, but forwards drive most scoring, only elite offensive D contribute that much. But do those D make that big a difference in playoffs?
Going back to the Blue in 2019, the champs highest scoring D – EV PTS, PP PTS, P/GP, +/- and ranking P/GP:
2019 Blues Pietrangelo 15, 4,.73 +5 10th
2020 Bolts Hedman 12, 10,.88 +13 9th
2021 Bolts Hedman 5, 13,.78, +1, 5th
2022 Avs Makar 16, 12, 1.45, +7, 1st
2023 Knights Theodore 11, 2,.62, +8, 14th
2024 panthers Forsling 12, 0,.54, +9, 21st
2025 panthers Ekblad 9, 4,.68, +10, 8th
Makar lit it up, last playoffs was .71 and -1. The season before 1.36 and -3. The Blues year they had 4 D in the top 10 in +/-
What I get from this is that strong two way do more for a cup than high producing D. Teams key on them, Bouch was also not as effective last playoffs. Having puck capable D helps give more diversity to the offensive attack, but it’s the strong defending I think that is most important, like Pronger’s ‘quiet ice’
A fully healthy Ekhlom gives that dominant two way play, but he seems to get knicked up these days. It doesn’t hurt of course if you have an elite D like Makar, but the depth of the group is most important more often than not
Back in the day it was Coffey and a bunch of hard nosed guys that could pass a puck. The ’88 team many see as the best of all time, or at least right there, had no Coffey and Huddy as the highest P/GP at .69, and that was in the 80’s. The most points was Smith at 12
Puck skill is great, and I think any decent NHL player should be able to make a decent pass. A few around here me included, lean to that a few more capable but harder D would improve the group. Walman was acquired because Stan wanted better puck movement, and at some point he will replace Ekholm and add that element to the left side, but I wouldn’t want to see to much more, or any more
This is why I was stumping for guys like Romanov and Zub since before they got extended on long term deals. We’ve needed more complete defenders with an edge for quite a while.
It was suppose to be Nurse. Remember what a beast Nurse was for the couple of games where he was pissed off at the media.
Why would Frederic not already be fully recovered? It’s been what, 9 months since his injury? Longer?
I think the far more reasonable explanation is that he is what he is. This is his level. This is it.
Strudwick said it took him almost two years. Probably slower for really big guys. Drai took more than a year to get back to his normal skating after the King’s goon tackled him
I have Rachel Kryshak on every Monday, and she was talking on the Lowdown about it long before the new contract.
https://x.com/RachelKryshak/status/1935740079911112913
She’s a great guest! That last name change had me confused for a week or two
I still don’t understand how an ankle issue would make you unable to play smart, unable to shoot, unable to punch or hit anyone, and a whole bunch of other things that are not primarily “leg stuff”.
I think it delays his entry to the puck transactions. He gets there late,and what happens immediately is a big part of his game. I’m a Frederic fan, know he isn’t playing well, but will continue to defend him. I have eight years! 🙂
If this is true, he should be dropping the gloves every chance he gets, and working extremely hard on good positional hockey.
Otherwise – sit it out and rehab the thing.
Oilers have some of that, but don’t bring it. That’s probably the coach as opposed to a player.
It’s fairly well established that high ankle sprains can take a LONG time to fully recover from. Recall Drai’s skating was not near 100% the year after he played through his in the playoffs.
Maybe this is his level. Of course, prior to last year, he was a much higher level for 2 years in Boston.
Yes I think it would bother you most cutting edges. He looked great on his breakaway goal.
From John Chambers:
No publicly available WAR data, but we do have Dom’s NET rating.
Out:
Holloway: 10.1
Broberg: 5.8
Foegele: 3.1
McLeod: 0.5
+19.5
In:
Podkolzin: -3.9
Mangiapane: -2.3
Walman: +3.8
Savoie: -4.7
-7.1
Dom’s NET rating measures how many goals above or below replacement a player contributes over a season — basically a goal-based version of WAR.
The four players Edmonton lost (Holloway, Broberg, Foegele, McLeod) combined for +19.5, while the replacements (Mangiapane, Podkolzin, Walman, Savoie) total –7.1.
That’s a swing of about –26 goals, or roughly 4–5 wins in the standings — a massive drop in on-ice value for a team in its Cup window.
I did not understand the herique replace mcleod move.
Like 200 ft player, speed to burn, solid option top pk…for a a guy i wanted to trade for 3 years begoee they did (ardvisson was even worse as i had him as hard best deadline type get target when he got grabbed by LA.
I like henrique as a rental. Resign confused me. I just didn’t see him as ideal for any length over journeyman who also gave team a mdavid-lite version zone entry that was quite effective.
Dom has Henrique at -5.4.
Oilers never minded aging curves.
Henrique looked the part early with deft tips from the blue paint.
For non elite forwards, performance is highly volatile after or even before 30.
Remember Kyle Turris? He was a legit 2c at 28.
By 29 and 30 he was replacement level. By 31, he couldn’t play in the league.
There’s no country for old men in this sport.
For non elite forwards, performance is also highly volatile before 27, or before 24. Every player is different.
Peak scoring is between 23-25, then plateaus, then drops after 27.
While every player is different, you generally want to optimize the age of your roster towards these ranges.
So for example if you decide to replace McLeod who was 24/25 with Henrique who was 34, it generally plays out just as it did in this instance.
I saw the Oilersnation article on goalies that the Oilers might target and thought it was a pretty weak list. None of the names are definite improvements over Skinner.
Honestly, if we want to target a goalie it should come from a team headed down like Swayman out of Boston or Stolarz from the Leafs if he gets too frustrated with with lack of compete in that team.
Trade would be preferred but the cost would be painful.
Per Tony B:
Knoblauch confirms he will pick up where he left off for lines tonight vs. SEA:
Howard – McDavid – Mangiapane
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Savoie
Henrique – RNH – Roslovic
Frederic – Philp – Tomasek
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
I’ve wanted to see Henrique used as a wing with one of the other centers. He seems to still have the hands to score. I hope coach keeps him there for a while to see how it fits.
The chances those lines are the same the whole game: 10%? Is that being too optimistic?
If the Oilers come out with their legs, with energy and playing well (i.e. cutting out egregious mistakes) then they should be in the lead and the lines will roll (I presume).
The Oilers haven’t played a good first couple of periods since the Vancouver game.
Define “optimistic”…..
The Kid needs to pot one in the 1st or he’ll find himself stapled to the 4th line come the 2nd period.
If the Oilers are controlling the game, I doubt it.
This is the combinations that’s going to continue to bust out and win some games 5-2 instead this boring rope-a-dope 2-1 in OT style of hockey that K.K has been leaning on. When was the last Oiler not named Leon to get a hat-trick? Didn’t Foegele get 4 a few years ago and I remember James the real deal Neal gather 4 many moons ago. Let the horses run free the playoffs don’t begin for 74 more games it’s time to pad some stats against road weary Seattle.
Ryan Nugent Hopkins – March 2025.
Progress.
I like henrique/rnh actually. Gives rhc and lhc that hopefully get used for faceoffs that way always strong side drawing.
3rd line that stands good chance of starting with posession on dzone faceoffs is right sort of idea. Feed mcdavid line on the fly more starts and split up ozone favouring both thst line and drai.
It’s nice to start to be able to notice savoie with more minutes in better company for his skillset.