The Edmonton Oilers will meet Florida Panthers tonight at Rogers Place. The two teams are not the same group who met in the last two Stanley Cup Finals, but the emotions should run high on the ice and in the stands. For the Oilers, the key to winning might be avoing the extracurricular activities. The two points matter for Edmonton. Big time. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-0-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 5-2-1
- Season Record: 34-26-9, 77 points in 70 games
As much good has been done since the deadline, back-to-back losses to the visiting Florida teams would be a tragic turn.
The look of the team will remain the same according to coach Kris Knoblauch. However, we know the coach will tweak the lines and maybe the pairings, too. I think we’ll see a strong effort by these Oilers, but in all honesty the turnovers bring sadness and sorrow. I think it will cost Edmonton eventually, hope I’m wrong.
The news on Leon Draisaitl’s injury was a little all over the place. First it sounded dire, then Stan Bowman spoke and everyone was Julie Andrews in the meadow singing The Sound of Music. I suspect both men told the truth, as someone who issue frames all the live-long day, words matter.
This crew has some useful younger players now, and that’s exciting for the future. Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie and Josh Samanski are all 24 and younger. Colton Dach, Quinn Hutson and Ike Howard have played in the NHL with the Oilers this season and could be part of a productive future.
The heart of this Edmonton Oilers team (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard) needed a younger group to bring speed and inexpensive skill. The progress made this season is real. I don’t believe it’s enough to win Stanley, but do believe the Oilers make the postseason.
On the Lowdown today, we will be joined by Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. He’ll tell us what it’s like to live in a world with no Leon on the ice. We’ll also talk Condors, March madeness and more. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
I don’t see how KK is back next season after that. I only watched the beginning (which sucked) as prior commitments, but he clearly can’t prepare his team for the biggest moments. And it doesn’t serve the org to let him learn, if he ever will
They don’t lack heart, they lack inspiration and correct direction
From what I did see, them banging the puck around the bottom of the net will probably give me bad dreams
He was out coached and out witted in two SCF’s, and still hasn’t gotten the memo. He is clearly a smart man, but not a leader of men
Agreed, but hes also JJ’s guy. I imagine that is what kept him his job this season.
It’s impossible to prepare your team for a game where the other team has a different rule book.
The Oilers tried to play by their rulebook once and ended up marching to the penalty box and swung the series completely. That was, of course, after ignoring the too many man and letting them tie it up.
Sure, ‘one’ can make ridiculous claims that Kane couldn’t keep his stick down and the phantom slash was a deserved call. It’s a nitpick, there was never a chance that series. Just like a seldom used rookie Broberg was the right call in order to swing things to the assured future Stanley cup champs in Vegas.
The only chance the Oilers had was to be absurdly good and leave no doubt. Pretty sure that ship has aged out or sailed away.
Coach doesn’t matter Eff this league.
Knoblauch getting some tough questions from Rishaug and Spector tonight. Worth a watch.
alarming stat of the night – Stastney on for 1 shot for, 17 against. 6% xGF in13.5 mins 5v5
Anything beyond “what in hell was that?” And then repeating it after you don’t get an answer, is overthinking it.
KK’s responses were very analytics heavy. Having looked at the advanced numbers closely for almost two decades I feel comfirtable saying: They aren’t enough. That he doesn’t get it speaks volumes and reminds me of Eakins. The deserve-to-win-o’meter doesn’t mean shit if you’re chasing Stanley.
Agreed 100%. They came out flat and lost in the first period, as they always do against this team
Quick Analysis
Volume vs. Efficiency: Interestingly, his shots per game have dropped significantly since the break (from nearly 4 per game down to under 2), yet his points per game have actually increased. He is currently leaning much more heavily into his playmaking role.
The Power Play: A large portion of his post-break production has come via primary assists on the man advantage, where he is currently averaging 3:42 of ice time per game.
Using NHL EDGE tracking data, we can see a clear shift in McDavid’s shooting profile following the Olympic break. While his skating speed remains elite, he is currently favoring placement and playmaking over pure velocity.
Inside the Edge Data
The Velocity Drop: The drop in average shot speed (nearly 5 mph) correlates with his lower shot volume. This suggests that since the break, McDavid has been taking fewer “hopeful” or long-range shots and is instead focusing on high-danger looks or “tapping in” rebounds, which naturally register lower speeds than his signature mid-range wristers.
Observations from the “Peak Shooting” Period
The Goal Binge: During this 14-game stretch, McDavid was a puck-dominant shooter. His 4.71 shots per game is significantly higher than his season average, and it resulted in nearly a goal per game.
Velocity Spike: This was also the period where he recorded his highest average shot speed (51.24 mph). This suggests he was attacking the zone with speed and firing more primary wrist shots rather than looking for cross-seam passes.
Faceoff Insights
The December Workload: During that “Peak Shooting” stretch, McDavid wasn’t just shooting more—he was also taking nearly two more draws per game than his season average. His 54.8% win rate during that time was among the highest of his career, showing he was physically dominant in all zones.
Post-Olympic Fatigue?: Since returning from the Olympics, his faceoff volume has dropped to 14.1 per game, and his win percentage has dipped below the 50% mark.
So….just ugh for the 3rd connsecutive series of questions exact same angle in a row repeat sake “why did you guys suck today? Like fid you not care at all.that it was the team that has beat you in last 2 finals? Like what woukd you suggest is likelyhood you maybe seem to care more consitently than you have all seemed to this season?”
Common question, lack of passion and emotion. KK seems to (observation only) coach that way as well. The stars need to look in the mirror.
Rishaug has talked about this so many times on Got Yer Back. Coach doesnt value physical play. I couldn’t believe when Knoblauch said Clattenburg’s physical play didnt make a difference in his first game against Florida. I thought he had a massive impact on that game in his 6 minutes or whatever. Brought so much energy
KK nice man, not a leader of men. You need some raw passion to rile up the troops. He seems to prefer low and slow. I wish him luck
Never in doubt… That they would lose. Ha.
Games like this have happened way too often this season and they sure make it look like the window is closed. Holy hell.
Its like what Dennis Green said
“We are who they thought we were”
Not the actual quote but close enough.
Oilers with some elite perimeter play,
lots of hustle & bustle, trying to pass the puck into the net all night and nothing to show for it
Mix that with some indifferent defensive play, errant passing & so so goaltending
FLA 4 zilch to the surprise of no one
Classic FLA vs OIL
Pathetic
Good thing that the Oilers don’t have to play Florida in the playoffs this year.
The road to the Cup is rat free.
Silver linings!
That was unpleasant.
Jarry going to have a great game on Sat!
I think the comments do not reflect the game I was watching.
Oilers were not “not trying”, or “terrible effort”.
A few posters noted it… full scale Maurice game. Infinit stick infractions so the refs feel like they cant call anything because it would be a parade to the box. Picks, sticks, and interference. **old seahawks line…”If you hold every play they cant call holding. Cant call it every single play boys”
Not justifying the loss. But i do not believe it is effort. This is why every Maurice team runs the oilers over (jets anyone?) Because our boys have never learned to play “that way”.
I dunno if there has been an oiler team that can play that way in the past 30 years…
Im also not sure i would have much interest in watching if we did… I already did through the dead puck era…
This is accurate. Unfortunately they haven’t learned how to play this opponent after 13 games with the highest of stakes on the line. I would have liked to see them shoot when they had the opportunity. Unlike you I need to see them be filthy dirty against this team. Make the refs call every single infraction. Make it so obvious it can’t be missed.
‘06
You saw good effort in that game?
Coach put together idiotic lines and got an idiotic performance.
Dont over think yourself there KK.
On the day that the Oilers announce their playoff ticket prices, we get a team that doesn’t look like they want to play in the spring. This team is beyond confounding.
At this point in the game every single check should be finished. Every chance to slash at the hands should be taken.
Podkolzin/Hyman should flip back, Podkolzin has been pushing rivers without McDavid, team needs that more then him playing 3rd wheel to Savoie/McDavid.
I don’t think they’re playing that badly. Some over passing, drive the net more, PP letting them down, bounces not going their way, plus it’s prison rules out there but Edm didn’t get the memo.
I wish out big guys were bigger jerks. Way too passive. Somebody run somebody.
This is the kind of game where a captain’s job is to fire everyone up. Thats the job. If you can’t get it done going one on four, inspire your teammates.
Already not looking forward to tomorrows’ quiet, moody interview answers.
Florida continues to just run the Oilers show. Why can’t they figure out how to beat these guys?
The oilers are slow to realize they have to stop playing in circles, instead of imposing their will, driving the net, and with the occasional heavy stick, pick and other types of nuisance that irritates other
teams and gets the out of rhythm.
While the Oilers are playing exceedingly poorly tonight, it’s beyond frustrating to see that even when the Panthers are out of the playoff race stick infractions and interference continue to vanish from the rulebook during their games.
Not enough compete. The Panthers may be short handed but they are all over the place with heavy sticks…the Oiler are playing like it’s rec league. One period to go….let’s go Oilers….could a come back be in the works?
That’s kind of how it looked in Games 5 & 6 in last year’s SCF
Yes, agreed, these are bad memories. And, while I’d love a come back, I would think not
Not making any excuses but Florida just continues to get away with little picks, hooks, trips. It’s infuriating
Shoot High. Shoot Low. Just shoot when you get the slot. Not going to pass the puck into the net.
The good news is the Pacific is a Turtle race ….
SEA losing …
VGS losing 3-0 ..
Just need Sharks to lose and ……….
We lose no ground !
Vegas gives up 3 in the first 10 minutes at home
3 Goals on 3 shots. not sure I have ever seen that before. Hill got yanked
How about Koskinen’s 4 GA on the first 4 shots vs. Vancouver?
Tarkus channeling his inner Bruce.
Only Bruce, Marilu Henner and Arnold Schwarzenegger were gifted with total recall.
Ha!
Terrible effort. They should be ashamed. Absolute weaksauce.
Im out. Can’t watch this pathetic game. One team looks like an NHL team playing an AHL team and literally toying with them. Sad thing is Florida could win the draft lottery as well.
4D chess this game will hurt their odds.
Well the mountain is now taller than K2. They’re done…
The Oilers are playing a shell of the team that won the cup and they are getting their ass kicked.
Because the Oilers are a shell of a team that went to the SCF x 2
I have PTSD
So do the Oilers.
Terrible PP#1 and then hemmed in their own zone for quite awhile and pushed around
Not sure why this took so long to show.
And now Panthers score #3.
The give a shit meter is below zero…. for both the oilers and me. Not a great game. 1st place on the line and playing a non playoff team. Because Oilers. Come on pick it up!!!
Bouchard almost never shoots on the power-play anymore, and it feels to me like it allows the PKers to put a ton of pressure on the forwards behind the net and along the sideboards since they aren’t being forced to respect the threat from the point.
Shooting low on Bob is not going to cut it. You’d think they remember that.
Oilers look completely stymied.
They are psyched out
It does have that feel to it.
Would be nice if they shoot the puck on net instead of passing all the time….
Would also be nice if they remembered to shoot up high in Bobrovsky….I swear we lost the first cup sliding pucks in along the ice
The fact they still can’t show any animosity or pride vs the Panthers is one of the most pathetic things I’ve seen from a hockey team.
We are shy in the ass hattery department. Missing an E Kane type of player. Maybe Clatt????
Every professional hockey player can do something. They’re doing nothing.
Gamesmanship is a real skill … that’s why guys like Perry and Marchand have hung on for so long. It’s why Turtlechuk wins everything. There are very few real life Shoresy-types on the ice these days.
People in Edmonton got spoiled from the glory years when the Oilers had high end asshats like Messier, Linsman, Anderson.
Anaheim came back from 2-0 against Flyers, now it’s Edmonton’s turn to show if they can step it up against what should be a lesser opponent.
One more leaky goal and I would put in Jarry.
Some teams just have your number.
One more leaky goal and I am watching curling…
Pathetic.
xGF 1-0.5 for Panthers
Team playing poorly, Ingram included
i thought tonight was the easier Florida team…….
It is. If we were playing Tampa it would probably be 4-0.
Yea likely true. Was really hoping they would come out hard and play a strong game. Again too many defensive lapses.
Now it is 4-0.
No one in the shooting lane. No one boxing out. Good grief
Bouchard with a random skate to the other side of the D zone leaving his side undefended.
Not sure Nurse was really doing his job there…..
20 million dollars of defence let a player get behind them. Standing next to each other watching the puck go past them.
Bouchard’s man scored the goal. They were both behind the net. Bouchard let him go to the front of the net, while Bouchard wandered into Nurse’s corner.
Couple that with letting another Panther behind him on the first GA and then lackadaiscally chasing him, and Bouchard is Boucharding tonight.
Bouchard ended up in no-man’s but Nurse was in front of the net and oblivious to the Panther coming up an standing in the danger area.
The Oilers top line and top pairing employ the high cycle in the offensive zone – one expects McDavid to make a positive play with the puck when he has it with time and pace – he doesn’t and it creates the fast break opportunity.
Definitely a tactics and 1 on 1 battle problem. I’m out on the HC
You would think there’d be extra motivation and battle considering the history between the teams.
Knob gets punked every meaningful game against these guys. It’s meaningful bcs panthers and the need to not lose
He doesn’t understand how to counter teams like this obviously. That they’re squeaked by the Kings and Canucks is weak sauce. Lost twice, a rarity, in finals es no bueno
All I can say is 100% Same with all the other comments: psyched out, gamesmanship etc they all apply.
Wow somehow the Panthers of all teams lead the league in PP chances. How can that possibly be? Oh yes, Gregory’s daddy.
Would be nice to see the McDavid line pay attention to defense and not get caught deep in the zone
Refs not calling obvious penalties on Florida as usual; Louie- their letting them play…weak push by Stashey- interference. Call out the bias for once you donkeys!
Jack and Louie are pretty hard to take tonight
Unfortunately most nights.
We all know the SCF history, we haven’t been living under a rock
Hyman finishes the line change instead of turning back and that goal against probably doesn’t happen.
What was there, 2 or 3 trips in the minute leading up to that goal…?
Refs letting them play according to Jack. BS of course
I hate seeing people fired but love to see Jack and Louie lose their job. The worst so called local announcers in the entire league.
Sigh
How many times have we seen that play work for Florida the last few years?
The definition of insanity.
Whoa – Ingram wasn’t close on that one. Fooled!
Looks like he was attempting to poke check but changed his mind
Boy was Savoie close to opening the scoring there