The Edmonton Oilers are delivering great entertainment and have gathered all the splinter groups in the congregation. It could last a week or forever, but foes are friends and cousins are brothers. Amazing what winning can do for a fan base.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Who’s the Oilers’ best player outside the NHL? It’s a tough call
- New Lowetide: Which Oilers’ minor leaguers could help in the playoffs?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto’s future may hinge on 2023 NHL playoffs
- Lowetide: 5 ways Oilers’ Mattias Ekholm has delivered since trade
- Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers post an incredible March with playoffs in sight
- DNB: The Oilers ‘found a way’ against the Kings
- Lowetide: How many more college players will the Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at 2018 NHL Draft, making the final call
- DNB: Connor McDavid joins the 60-goal club
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ defence deep enough to win the Stanley Cup?
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play gives 3 reasons to be optimistic about a long playoff run
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl shows he’s more than Connor McDavid’s sidekick
- Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s importance to the Oilers keeps showing no bounds
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, COL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- April prediction: 4-2-0, eight points in six games
- April results: 4-0-0, eight points in four games
- March results: 12-2-1, 25 points in 15 games
- February results: 4-3-4, 12 points in 11 games
- January results: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 48-23-9, 105 points in 80 games
The Oilers are one point closer to the Vegas Golden Knights in a fantastic race to the finish line, and have a chance at a 50-win season. That’s not an easy mark, Edmonton has done it just three times, none since 1986-87. There’s something happening here. Vegas leads by two points and plays Seattle twice. If the Oilers win out, this is going to be so close.
GOALIE AND DEFENSE
Mattias Ekholm posted one of the best games by an Oilers defenceman in team history. He was everywhere, making great plays, blocking out, making sure he had coverage, closed gaps, made one of the best passes in memory (I don’t know how many Oilers blue from past teams could have made it but it isn’t many) and generally looked like a man who was sent from heaven to help Edmonton win hockey games. My goodness he was exceptional. Last time an Oilers defender played that well? Probably one of Chris Pronger’s Rembrandts.
I waited five weeks to write about Ekholm because the early results were so positive and I didn’t want to ride a small sample size into a love letter. It’s a pretty positive read, but Ekholm has exceeded the verbal. No question.
Evan Bouchard is establishing himself as an impact player now. There will be many who give Ekholm credit, and they should, but this is the final elite offensive player in the McDavid cluster and my goodness he’s going to make the Oilers pay if they bridge him. Two assists, good decisions, 6-32-28 through 80 games and a five-on-five goal share of 53 percent on the year.
Darnell Nurse caught Erik Karlsson with a hit that looked borderline in real time, and played effective defense the rest of the way. Played with all other defensemen at least a little, most effectively with Ekholm and Vincent Desharnais. He played 37.6 percent of his five-on-five minutes versus elites before the deadline and 28.4 percent since. His DFF percentage (smart Corsi) went from 48.8 to 51.3. Music!
Brett Kulak was in chase mode for much of the afternoon, but he can skate like the wind and is solid in coverage. The was some bend but no break. Vincent Desharnais had a fine game, he’s going to appear on Law & Order: Criminal Intent one day with the way he uses that lumber out there. Wow! Jason Demers had a bad sequence that led to the GA, but settled in and showed veteran savvy a few times. Philip Broberg scored his first goal of the season, skated miles and created some offense. He was on the ice for the GA but was not the culprit.
Stuart Skinner stopped everything he had a chance on, and now owns a .926 save percentage at five-on-five for the season. That’s good for No. 9 on the year, tied with Connor Hellebuyck. Good company. I asked Steve Lansky on Friday’s show if he thought Skinner could win the Calder and Steve replied with an emphatic ‘yes’ and that’s heartwarming because this franchise earned one or several never received. It would be nice to right a wrong and Skinner is an excellent candidate.
FORWARDS
Connor McDavid scored twice and is now 64-87-151 for the season. I’m constantly reminded of 1970-71 and the Boston Bruins, a season where the guide and record book took a turn on Goliath at Six Flags. McDavid’s totals are so mind boggling the numbers have a heartbeat. He’s so much better than everybody, he’s a wonder of the world.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a great game, including a beautiful goal and an all-world pass to Derek Ryan. It’s like he banked three points a year for a decade and then cashed them when it mattered. This is peak Nuge, at age 29, because of course it is. I couldn’t be happier for him if I tried. Zach Hyman scored a great goal after a stunning pass from Ekholm, and made a sweet pass to the Nuge for his marker. He is 79-65, 55 percent in five-on-five goal share.
Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane both played well to my eye, but their sticks were a half-bubble off plumb and things never rhymed. Leon’s passing was the feature of the day on his unit, Philip Broberg can thank him later. Kane had so many chances and didn’t get anything in the net, plus his sticks were kindling as soon as there was any pressure placed on them. A weird afternoon. Kailer Yamamoto had just one great look, and promptly ended the play by dumping it and going to the bench. You can call it discipline, I call it come on, man!
Derek Ryan had one of his best games, finishing a SH sequence and adding an assist on the Broberg goal. Warren Foegele had an assist on the first McDavid goal, an inspired push pass to the captain. Nick Bjugstad had a good game but didn’t move the needle offensively, I think he’s faster than we think because of Frank Mahovlich Syndrome. Klim Kostin was productive on the day, rambunctious and getting in the way of San Jose men in the neutral zone. Maybe he’ll be Ethan Moreau. Mattias Janmark was not involved as much as normal, he got knocked a little by Kostin early and I wonder if that had an impact. He’s been the second best Mattias for weeks now, but I still like his game plenty.
HAPPY EASTER!
It’s early, kids are sleeping and the dog is too but she’s beside me as I write. Jo-Anne has been gone for coming on five months now, it’s been six months since she was in this house where we raised the children. When the kids were small, my son would make a town of Lego near where I’m sitting, and my daughter would play with her Powerpuff Girls. It was the best of times, when they were little and we were all safe. I miss them.
I am healing, slowly but surely, and time passing is a big part of it. Memories flood, tears flow, and then I feel better. Strangest thing. I don’t ever remember a good cry being as therapeutic as it appears to be currently. I look at old photos a lot, it’s very emotional. I feel pain, but it’s different than the December pain where I felt so alone. I know Jo-Anne wouldn’t want me to go through life in such pain, and I am trying to be strong for the kids.
I miss her cackle, her smile, her cooking, her clarity and caring. I miss her touch. Her hugs were the best in the world, even better than her rhubarb pie. I am learning to live without her. I can listen to music again. I am enjoying sports as always and have caught on to some new shows like Barry, Perry Mason and Last of Us although that last one scares the hell out of me.
Also major in my being able to deal with things are friends and family. Elaine, Heather, Kelly, Helen, Bruce, Lee, that’s all family. Friends? Another Bruce, plus Lynn and Dave and Jane, Dean, Jayson, Maggie, Erin, Lak, Matthew, Steve, Paul and many others. My kids have their circles of friends and they’re vital to us right now, too.
Our kids have been both overwhelmed and amazing. I’ll never ever forget their strength during this time. I love them so much, and know that Jo-Anne will want me to make sure they flourish and find their way. I’m taking note of their progress, so that when I see her again (I believe I will) I can give detailed updates on both of them.
Thanks to all of you for your understanding when the blog goes awry, thanks to Ryan and Danny and everyone who has been so kind. I’m going to be okay, and live the time I have left with hope and humor and sunshine when I can find it. I loved that girl with my whole heart, I was so lucky to find her. I will see her again. That keeps me going. Thanks for reading.
Hilarious that the Avs needed the refs intervention to beat the Ducks tonight.
Bullshit when’s the last time we had 7 PP in a game. As soon as the Av’s feel contact they dive, it’s like watching Colombian Soccer.
I tuned in for the last five minutes to see what would happen. I didn’t like that last penalty call. If that was McDavid, no way we get another power play. The Avs sure get the calls. Mackinnon pivoted and skated into his foot. It didn’t look like a trip to me.
Shouldn’t the ducks be starting OT on PP? How the hell did that not get called after garbage orher way…
1st star has got to be the refs. Holy crap that was ridiculous.
The first two calls on the Ducks in the third were no-brainers and just terrible plays by Zegras and Jones. The last one was very marginal and often let go given the repeated recent calls. The OT call was terrible, even if not taking in to account the 3 straight recent calls.
In my opinion.
What about the non call on eller near end of regulation? That was the most flagrant one of almost all of them.
I mean, it’s not like the there’s any gray area for the Refs… like 18 different versions of what may, or may not be offside. 🤣🤣🤣
When we won our Cups we never ever recieved the extra calls at the magical time. We all seen the Tampa bias reffing, now it’s the Av’s getting the pixie dust calls. If your going to get a penalty against Makar are MacKinnion you might as well get your money’s worth.
Maybe the refs can call another penalty help avalanche with their reg wins…
Man if the Avs could blow one of those games in hand tonight, that would be useful.
Did I ever mention I love trap games, lol.
Well for other teams…
Oh my god I can’t believe Jones didn’t score.
Big pushback shift by the Avs but good D by the Ducks, not over-skating the play and they keep everything to the outside till they eventually force a turnover and a break the other way. Jones on the second chance with the goalie down and out fails to find a gaping net. Maybe could’ve been a penalty…
Happy easter LT. Your post today puts life into perspective for certain. There is life and there is the Oilers, they are separate but they tend to blend together for many of us. I am glad you are able to take some joy out of this season.
Ducks mostly dominating the early part of the 3rd and a well-earned go-ahead goal 6 minutes in.
Whoa, make it 4-2.
Terrible team D by the Avs.
Maybe its a one-off (and they are back to back on the road) but this Avs team looks very pedestrian right now.
Avs get one back with 7 to go still – and they are buzzing.
Max Jones the second terrible offensive zone penalty for the Ducks (he didn’t take the first) – Avs back to the PP where they just scored
and with 6 seconds left in the penalty, Grant takes a third straight minor for the Ducks.
Will be a miracle if the Ducks (Dostal) can kill this off.
Mackinnon scores on the one-timer.
Tie game.
OT!
and a very “meh” interference call on the Ducks in OT – sigh.
3 straight PP goals (8 total PPs) and the Avs win in OT.
Ducks were the better team 5 on 5 in the 3rd – they beat themselves.
Well, I guess I should probably watch the third period of this Avs/Ducks game – wish I had an option to turn off the Eakins miked-up portion. Actually, it is entertaining.
Ducks tied it up on the Avs late in the 2nd. Third period now a minute or so in. 2-2. Godspeed, young mallards…
Does everyone else not know about “oiler aggregator” website?
It has basically every blog or network article on oilers listed.
I’m not sure if it’s okay to add link here but it’s obviously fairly heavy on LT main and his athletic posts.
My favorite post Al. No tears shed whatsoever ; ) Thank you for being you.
Man, it’s dusty in here. Thanks,Al for your straight from the heart.
So, Cam Fowler played over 38 minutes last night and was on for 7 of the 9 goals (4-5).
The game did go to OT (regular season OT) and the Ducks seemed to have dressed 5D but…..?
A Dementor is gonna dement?
Take care everyone.
the bad comes in threes, so weather what you can. Hug those around you. cuz life comes for everyone.
i am living a time in my own life with a young daughter, and am stuck trying to treasure every smile. Hard work sometimes, but significant.
thanks for writing. It is a good reminder — among many I ought to recognize — that pausing to consider the marrow of life often serves me well.
much love to you Al,
I have a 5 and 6 year old now, and we’re currently going through the struggles of figuring out finances as a family, spending lots of time working (both at work and at home), and dealing the tribulations of young kids. Like you say, it can be a lot of work.
It can be hard to be grateful for what we have, and stupid fights like “leave the f**king thermostat alone!” Have been common at times.
These posts about Jo-anne serve as a reminder on the bad days to cherish the time I have with Amy and the kids, because it’s not going to last forever. Thanks Al!
The Bruins did a hell of a job drafting and investing in American grown Swayman.
Pastrnak with a Hatty he now has 60 he’s blessed with a Mike Bossy release.
I guess that means McDavid gets a hatty vs Colorado as we all know he wants the Richard
Thanks, HH.
As far as I can tell 60 Goals has been reached on 42 seperate occasions by 22 players. It’s been done 8 times by a Oiler so a hair over 1/5 of the time a Oiler has done it. This is why everyone hates us outside the organization. For example this is only recently remember when McDavid recieved a 2 game suspension for playing hockey. How about it’s never been done and never will again probating Neal’s 20 Goals even though he was injured. How about losing a 2nd for Peter Peter Pumkin Eater. Then there’s the 3rd rounder for Flattop. What about the 13 reviews that were flip a coin calls yet we lost everyone of those a few years ago. Try to flip a coin and get heads 13 times in a row then get back to me. I could bring up many more occasions going back where tomfoolery has happened to us but I’m getting thirsty for a drink.
Looks like 34 times by 19 players since the Oilers entered the league, so even more concentrated since then (8 Oilers of 34 is almost 1 in 4 60 goal seasons).
They did pretty OK with the draft lottery balls though, including the important one.
If not for winning 1 drucken backgammon game the Oilers probably don’t exist anymore. They would of went Dodo like the Jets, Whalers and Nordiques. I was at the 1st game against Detroit everyone was so excited that nowhere butt ass cold Edmonton was in the same league as the teams we all grew up idolizing.
It would actually be 8 if 19 so a bit under half
No, 8 of the 34 60-goal seasons were by Oilers.
And 3 different Oilers were among the 19 players who had at least one 60-goal season.
LT your word’s always amaze and touch me. Like so many others I’ve lost to many loved ones by different means. Somehow your stories just seem to hit home more so than others. You truly are one of a kind and thank you for being you and sharing with all of us. Hockey and the Oilers are a love and passion for most of us but somehow you can remind us all what truly matters. For that I thank you.
Summarizing!
Petrov picked up an assist–his 10th of the series–as NB prevailed to win the series in six.
Beautifully written, as usual. Thanks for all you do and take care during these holidays.
What are the permutations and combinations that see the (disgusting) Flames miss the playoffs?
If the Flames win both of their last two games:
1) Jets pickup up only 3 of a possible 6 points in their last 3 games will eliminate the flames
2) Pred could still tie them if they win all 3 of their games and there are various combinations depending on how those games are won, regulation vs. OT vs. shootout. Right now the flames have one more regulation win (first tie break) and they are tied for regulation/OT wins (2nd tie break) so if all those game are won in regulation, they would be even on the first tie break and the Press would be ahead on the 2nd.
Of course, the flames such and its reasonable to think they’ll accumulate less than those four points…..
Preds play fLames tomorrow. So both winning out is not possible. That game is likely the most important remaining game of the season with regards to standings implications.
Demers back to the Condors.
Good for the Condors.
Good for the Oilers.
Likely good for Ryan McLeod.
A very class manoeuvre for the Oiler organization. You see Demers pick up the puck at the end of the game.
The kind of thing that goes well when looking to attract free agents. That of course and the chance to play with the two best players on the planet!
Jason will forever remember the classy move Oilers did for him. Let’s hope this creates good karma for us on the road to the Stanley Cup.
LT – I have been touched by your writing here for several years. I am always amazed at how well you set a scene, how you are able to evoke a sensation that goes beyond the words you use. It is a true and honest talent. And it is a tremendous gift to all of us here.
I feel I know you through your stories and your tone. My heart goes out to you when you grieve with us. I just want you to know that we return the emotions. I grieve with you my friend. I hope you give me the honour of calling you friend.
How could I say no to Walter Gretzkys Neighbour? Of course. I need as many friends as possible. 🙂
I am warmed right down to the cockles of my heart! Thank you good sir! You are such a light and a presence. This site is a go to for me before during and after every Oiler game. I watch the games thinking of all of us here – in this together, cheering for this team. You unite us all and that is good!
Also since you mentioned TV shows – check out “Shrinking” on Apple TV.
My heart is with you and your family. All the best!
Oh and Wayne’s sister in law used to be my dental hygienist – but that was way too long for a handle!
lol
I also forgot to mention that I am writing this – watching the Masters, with our latest dog Daisy – a 125 lb St. Bernard-Mastiff cross rescue (our FOURTH dog!), with her head in my lap, stretched out on the couch!
125 pounds? How much does this dog eat?????????????????????????
How much does the dog pooooooooo? Do the maths!
HA! the answer is PLENTY! and that goes for the answer to northerndancer too!
We have a 100 lb all black German Shepherd, a female smaller Shepherd at about 70 lbs and 75 lb Bernese Mountain Dog-Golden Retriever cross who acts more like honey badger.
All in all quite a lot of kibble and massive amounts of “waste material”! We have a small farm so thankfully plenty of space for “disposal, still guests are advised to be aware of “land mines”.
Don’t get me started on the 5 rescue horses and three rescue goats! Suffice it to say that I seem to be turning an inordinate amount of money into S*%T!
Love it though – all of it.
We had goats when I was a kid, my brother couldn’t drink cow’s milk. Goats are a different animal but they are lovable all the same. My Dad ran as fast as I ever saw him when we came home one night and one of the nanny goats had got herself caught in the fence. I remember thinking he cared a lot even though he kept saying ‘dumb, stupid goal’ during the rescue. 🙂
So true – lovable and yet indescribably stupid! Our goats are a trio of brothers. – so no milk for us but we like to say se saved them from becoming Tandoori.
So well written WG. It’s true LT, Many have grieved with you
Thank you for this. I know we all benefit greatly from this wonderful man. He is a treasure and he has singlehandedly created a community of “friends” but more than that it is almost like an extended sports family.
I derive equal pleasure from the games themselves and this website! What an incredible creation and environment.
Thank you for this. I know we all benefit greatly from this wonderful man. He is a treasure and he has singlehandedly created a community of “friends” almost like an extended sports family.
I derive equal pleasure from the games themselves and this website! What an incredible creation and environment.
Regarding Bouchard’s next contract. I agree that bridging him will cost us dearly down the road, I think it is the only option….keep him as affordable as possible in the short term.
Bouch does not hold the arbitration hammer…so I think Ken should qualify him and prepare to wait his agent out until after training camp starts…we can reasonably even play the first few games of next season without him if he’s willing to hold out.
Bouch knows he will get cherry PP minutes and tons of ice-time next year, so I don’t think he’ll be too opposed to a 1 year cheap-deal knowing he’ll hold a huge arbitration hammer the following year.
At the same time, Ken can dangle a reasonable 4 year bridge, say $3.8MM, that will walk him right to UFA status…that will have value for Evan, grow his bank account to 8 figures, offer him insurance against disastrous injury etc, and set him up for a major payday as a 27 year old RHD Free Agent.
Particularly because of how many OT games several teams have been in this season there has been more chatter about some wanting changes to the point format. However, regardless of the fairness of how points are currently awarded, if the NHL brass looks at what is going on right now in the standings on the last week of the season, it would very likely cause them to be reticent about changes. They are probably thrilled with what is happening right now with the playoff races.
-Only Boston’s final place in the standings (league, conference and/or division) is known
-Only a Toronto / Tampa series has been determined but Toronto can still move up or down in the conference and Tampa can move up in the league.
-In the other 3 divisions, who finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd is still up for grabs
-In the East, 4 teams are still vying for the 2 wild card spots (3 neck and neck, but Buffalo still has a small shot)
-In the West, 3 teams are vying for the one remaining wild card.
-Even at the bottom of the league last place, with the reward of highest odds in the draft lottery, is a 3 way, almost dead heat.
Even against the claims that the current structure, even when things look close, make it hard to make up ground, this season has seen meaningful movement.
Back on January 1st Winnipeg, Washington and Pittsburgh were firmly in a playoff spot, while Calgary was effectively in (ahead of the Oilers in win%). Colorado was also right at the cut line, while Edmonton was below it and Florida well below it. Today Edmonton and Colorado are right near the top of the conference, Florida surged up and is clinging to a wild card by their fingertips, Washington is completely done, and Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, and Calgary are fighting it out for an 8th wildcard spot in their conferences.
It’s only one season, but what a meaningful final week of the regular season in the NHL. They probably only wish it concluded on a Saturday if a lot of the drama continues to the final day.
Love always Al. It’s been a rough year; rough couple of years if I’m being honest. My father almost died in January; he’s made an amazing recovery and I’m blessed that we had another holiday dinner together yesterday. My partner is with the kids at her mom’s house today…I’m home enjoying a bit of quiet and thinking about life. ((Would have gone, mil is lovely but between her tiny apartment and wheelchair, I expressed my best, and took a seat on the bench.)
I teared up when I read this. That could be an understatement. We can’t grieve with you my friend, but we certainly can grieve for you, and we do. You’re our father, our brother, as well as our host and friend. Thank you for providing this space…it’s part of the fabric of my day to be sure. But more importantly, thank you for being a part of the distraction from the tough bits, and I certainly hope that we (your patrons and friends on the interwebs) are helping distract you from the hard parts too.
Much love.
Alan
That’s very kind. I appreciate your words, especially today. Are you getting some supper brought back to you? 🙂
Not today. :). But we had dinner with the folks yesterday, so leftovers aplenty. 🙂
I love rooting for the more “experienced” gentlemen during the Masters.
But why does Mickelson have to be such a douche?
ABK
Full on weeping here… this screen’s so damn blurry?!?
I used to think of “Lowetide” every day.
Now I think about LT… couple times a day.
I’ve caught myself being worried about you so many times over these past months.
I wonder how I could help; is there something I should do…
I constantly hope that you practice reaching out to any of the many, of whom I’m sure have offered to be there when called upon, when alone turns into lonely. That’s when those calls are the most important, though are so damn hard to make!
Avoid the twitter. Call a friend.
It’s so damn weird, that you mean so damn much to me…
Started Perry Mason last night, on your word alone.
I think it’s pretty good too.
Be well Allen. Know, you are loved.
…peace…
Ekholm and Drai together are truly amazing so far.
Since Ekholm got here (19 games) (NST data)
29 & 14 together 5v4 (100 min)
75% Goal Share
73% Expected Goal Share
72% Scoring Chance Share
79% High Danger Shot Attempts.
15% SH
.909% SV
1059 PDO
That’s just nuts. I know its 100 minutes by 73% xGF% is pretty much unheardof
Ekholm away from Drai (223 minutes)
74% Goal Share
56% Expected Goal Share
55% Scoring Chance Share
59% High Danger Shot Attempts
16% SH
.949 SV
1111 PDO
A heater no doubt, but the fancies are still high end
Drai away from Ekholm (201 minutes)
50% Goal Share
50% Excpected Goal Share
54% Scoring Chance Share
43% High Danger Shot Attempts
8.8% SH
.899 SV
987 PDO
This is better than it looks.
Drai hasn’t been 50% xGF% this year until lately.
He usually beats his xGF% by ~5% most years
Great to see.
My family and I will be Praying for you Lowetide. Hang in there. Much Love and Happy Easter.
Thanks LT. May your weekend be full of peace joy and wonder.
LT, as always, you piercing focus and clarity of thought and of emotion strikes to the heart of me, dare I say the heart of us all.
For these many many years you have written … passionately, resolutely, and with emnotional bravery about a great team sport in hockey. But also about the ultimate team activity that is family. I am emboldened and humbled after reading your words on so many levels, always deeply recognizing your awareness of CONNECTION making a person, a team and a family such powerful things.
I love hockey, but I love family and life more. You, sir, continue to shine as an outstanding person full stop. We are so furtunate to share this ongoing conversation with you.
Godspeed.
Thanks so much. Did I tell you I went to Tulum? Fascinating. The bus ride was among the scariest things I’ve ever experienced but it was worth it.
Your words really hit home today Allan.We lost my mother in law around 3 weeks ago to cancer so this is our first big holiday without her. She was a big part of my kids and family’s lives. I gotta say, don’t really feel like celebrating much today, it’s too fresh still. I have to have hope it gets better and that while she was here, she made an impact on my kids that will last their lifetime.
I’m so sorry for your loss. What I’ve learned, or what I’m learning, is that the memories become friends again but it takes time and there are lots of tough moments still.
Thanks for writing, LT.
This journey is amazing. I’m Ottawa born and raised. I’ve been an Oilers fan since their first year in the NHL. I think this is due to my Dad being a huge Leafs fan as back then there was only the one game on HNIC on Saturday night. It was always the Leafs or Habs. Along came the Oilers and their style was so different and exciting to watch. It was only in the playoffs that I could watch every Oiler game, much to my Dad’s chagrin lol I was the most exhausted elementary school kid during those playoffs. The ups and downs that I have gone through with this team is long. I got to meet the entire 84 – 85 team when they played an exhibition game in Ottawa, I skated with Paul Coffey when I attended the Eddie Shack hockey school as a kid. I love this team for all of to be glory and heartbreak. I joked with a buddy in recent years that I finally understand what it must be like to be a Leafs fan lol (he’s a big Leafs supporter). Having witnessed the glory years in real time was special. Connor McDavid is such a sublime talent. I feel fortunate, and I never thought possible, to witness this level of greatness a second time in my Oiler fandom. I’m enjoying this ride that we’re on with this current version. It’s truly incredible. This blog has been part of my daily life for years, thank you LT for providing a space where Oilers fans alike can share in their love for this team whether from Edmonton or wherever in the world that we cheer from. Cheers to all those who post and the stories that you share, hockey related and personal. I feel like I know you all. Cheers to everyone and Happy Easter. Be well, and let’s enjoy the past, present and future together.
Haha yeah many late nights out here in the Eastern time zone when the Oilers are playing meaningful hockey down the stretch!
How lucky we are to still have Nuge on our team. If he had the year he is having now last year I can’t see how we could have signed him. There may be a few still complaining about the Nurse contract but we more than make up on that with Nuge’s contract.
The term is long but the value is now as now is when we win the cup. I am very optimistic we can win the cup. Just beat Colorado next game to prove to themselves and everyone else they can take them down.
Happy easter everyone !!
We actually only have 6 more years on Nuge’s Contract after this year and he’s 29 still ( I know he turns 30 soon) so it’s not bad. There’s every chance that he could play well into his late 30s and gets another contract after this one is done at 35. Happy Easter!
He’s trajectory is reminding me of a poor-man’s Patrick Marleau who was still scoring 25 plus well into his mid-thirties.
I look at the likes of Bergeron, Marleau and Pavelski as example of how Nuge hopefully ages.
Indeed, yet we were mocked by other fan bases for that big contract for a “third line center”. The contract was the right value at the time for a unique two way player than can score 50-60 points, but it’s a hell of a deal after his performance this year.
I’ve always thought the ability was there though. There hasn’t been anyone in the league with a wrist shot like his since Joe Sakic. He reads the play well and is in all the right places. He didn’t get to play with talent much. TMac had him on the third line with plugs in the heart of his career. Tough to make hay there, but he did what he could without complaint.
Now we have a 10 million dollar guy getting paid 60 cents on the dollar. Value deals are the name of the game.
I think Nurse has a chance to also make other fan bases eat crow on their sweeping conclusions about his contract when it was signed. Time will tell.
LT I almost never post but I read every single one of yours over the years – I’m a lifelong Oilers fan who moved to Toronto to make my career and the pace of life here is like the Gardiner Freeway but your blog is the pullover and stretch your legs and take in the Alberta sky segment of my day, every day. Easy breath in and out, and just like that the rain stops.
That you cover this team we love with insight and perspective and balance AND do it as a hall of fame human being sharing your lived experience and vulnerability is incredibly rare and valuable. I’ll be as sad to see this blog go as I’ll be when McDavid plays his last game in blue and orange, but I’ll be richer and more grateful for having had the pleasure of enjoying both.
Grief is passion and I admire a man who can own his like you do. What else is life for.
Beautifully said…
Happy Easter LT. I think you may be the hockey blog equivalent of Ted Lasso – someone who always says and does the right thing and doesn’t stray from the high road. If someone says ‘What would Ted Lasso do”, I would say “What would Lowetide do”.
While you share the same level of integrity, the important differential between the two of you is that you know much more about hockey than Ted knows about English football. 🙂
Happy Easter to all! Thank you LT for providing this place to share. Enjoy your kids today! Thanks to all for commentary this past 3 months. Being Snowbirds in Mesa (and not savy technically) have only watched a handful of games broadcast down here so the blog was my Oiler lifeline! Start the 3 day drive home tomorrow (36 C here tomorrow!) Looking forward to PLAYOFFS!!!!
Oh and we just found out we will finally be Grandparents!!!
Yay! Congratulations!
I’m so glad Karlson did not get hurt on that Nurse check or else it might have been a 2 game suspension. That’s my view of it when seen in slow mo.
Saw it last night with Minnesota.
Erikkson-Ek hit with a slapshot ….injured. Look like week to week…..
I am paranoid about Oiler injuries in these last few games
Me too. Injury-free is maybe more important to me than 2 points and a shot at 1st in the conference.
It is, and I agree, but its also about keeping the players in their “natural rhythm” – Woody’s words. Woody mentioned that they play 3 games this past week and then only two next week. There will then be 3-4 days of before the playoffs. Its not a ton of hockey and, if games are taken off, its even less.
I also have fear of injury but Wood said straight up he’s not planning on having any player take a game off and I don’t necessarily disagree with him despite risk.
X 1000000000000
Injuries are the luck part of a Stanley run. The team needs to be good, and from an injury perspective, lucky to make it to the final. Especially the blueline.
A healthy Sekara takes us further in 2017.
Beautiful post, LT.
Thinking of you today.
Thanks for the wonderfully beautiful words this morning LT. I’m not much older than your children, and my mom is fighting for her life with the C word right now, and just earlier this week my best friend told me his mom had just been diagnosed as well. Your writing (and this website, with all the usual commenters) has been one of my favorite spots to browse and get my mind off the things when the world just feels a little too heavy.
Wishing you, and everyone else here, a happy and healthy Easter!
God Bless Alan and Jo-Anne…..
You’re words on Jo-Anne helped inspire me to write about my boy, Aslan, today, too.
It’s been a year tomorrow since he passed, and I found myself nodding and smiling and shedding a few tears for you and your experience.
Same, same but different, of course.
I send you my good thoughts all the time LT.
You’re words have helped more than you know.
You were lucky to find her. And you will see her again.
♥️
Thanks for sharing, I appreciate it. I know now that one year will be different, but it is never going to be easy. I share your pain, it is same but different, as you say. I so wish Aslan was here, and Jo-Anne too, but it helps I think sharing as you have. I hope you manage tomorrow as best you can, and know Aslan is proud of you.
This is an incredibly beautiful post, sir. Thank you for sharing.
Best wishes to you and your kids Al.
I’ve been saying for a month now that 156 is the truly historic number. Getting to that number creates a group with the name: Wayne, Mario, Connor – end!
I said a few times last night that it seems now that Connor himself wants that number. I don’t want to use the phrase “cheat for offence” but McDavid was making way more “risk stickhandle plays” in the neutral zone last night than normal (and more than a few didn’t work). I have zero issues at all with him doing that last night and in the current situation and I’d love for him to hit 156.
5 points in two games. Get a couple against the Avs and there is zero chance I bet against him in the last game agains the Sharks. Shit, even if he’s shut out against the Avs, I wouldn’t put a 5 point night in game 82 against the Sharks beyond him.
The number 1 is far more important than the number 156 is to McDavid’s legacy. Arguably, 2 and 3 are also. 156 doesn’t mean anything without number 1.
Crosby’s number is 3. 3 and 156 is the target.
Yzerman had 155, and 155 meant nothing until he had number 1. Yzerman’s number is 3 also.
That’s nice.
Not sure what the point is.
I’m talking about the potential over the next two gamesand a difference I see between 150 and 156 which has nothing to do with getting that 1, then 2, then 3 and a difference I see between 150 and 156.
If I had to choose between 156 and 1, of course I would choose the 1 and, of course, McDavid would choose the 1.
Of course, there isn’t that choice and I made a post about 156 vs. 150 – 150 is a mini-subject of today’s blog.
Happy Easter to all! It’s a lovely day in southern Saskatchewan. The sun is shining, birds are singing and the snow is melting. A welcome time of transition after a long and cold winter.
I didn’t realize his percent TOI vs. elites had gone down so much since Ekholm arrived.
This is fantastic, and must be a mental relief for Nurse knowing there is some real cover in and behind, as much as a physical relief.
I knew that Ekholm was taking on some of those minutes but Nurse was (and is) still the top guy for those elite minutes. I do wonder if some of the reduced number is due to playing quite a few teams that don’t have as many elite players – TOI vs. elites is simply going to be lower against the likes of SJS and ANA, right?
We all knew that the black hole at 2LHD was sinking the entire team.
Even if we dont have a true #1D (by old hfboards definition), we’re making up for it with 3, #2 defensemen
The data shows that your point about the particular teams played does impact the quality of competition data on Puckiq as expected. Using their data, over the 61 games prior to Ekholm arriving, on average there were 26 minutes a game of aggregate time played by Oiler’s D against Puckiq’s definition of playing against elite forwards. In the 18 games they have data for since (last night’s game was not included when I pulled the data) the Oilers D have played 23.4 minutes per night against the same definition of opposing forward lines. That’s a reduction of 10% of time per game against “elite”.
Prior to Ekholm, Nurse played 27% of the available minutes against Puckiq’s elites. Ceci played 25% of the minutes (the most any one individual could do if there are always 2 D on the ice 5 on 5 is 50%). Kulak was at 15.7% of the total, Barrie 13.2% and Bouchard 9.9%. Since Ekholm’s arrival, Nurse is at 21.9%, Ceci at 21.3%, Ekholm 19.3%, Bouchard 18.3%, and Kulak down at 9.3%. Even though the overall quality of the teams has an impact on the QoC, this data would support that Ekholm is trusted more as the second pair D to take on elites than Kulak was, and he is bringing Bouchard along with him. Nurse is still the minutes leader against Puckiq’s elites, the balance has been evened out considerably.
That looks to be part of it. If we look at 1st, 2nd and 3rd pair TOI% vs Elites before and after March 1 we see this:
Before March 1
1st (Nurse proxy) 37.6%
2nd (Kulak proxy) 26.1%
3rd (Bouchard proxy) 17.7%
After March 1
1st (Nurse proxy) 28.4%
2nd (Ekholm proxy) 26.8%
3rd (Kulak proxy) 16.0%
Before March 1 the 3 Dpairs (using those proxies) averaged 13.8 minutes per game vs Elites, after March 1 they are averaging 11.9 minutes.
1st pair percentage gone down a lot, 2nd pair up a smidge and 3rd pair down almost 2%.
Unfortunately the 3rd pair is getting hammered by Elites since March 1
Kulak putting up a 32.8% DFF and 22.2 GF% (2-7) vs Elites.
Desharnais with 36.4% DFF and 14.3 GF% (1-6)
Broberg with 25.4% DFF and 0% GF (0-2)
They’re going to be targeted by opposing coaches so Manson needs to be on top of his deployment game.
Bouchard was 50.6% DFF and 44.4% GF (8-10) on the 3rd pair before March 1, so the 3rd pair has declined.
For Desharnais, for example, that’s a sample size of what, 39 minutes?
I think we’d be better off at looking at the video to see exactly what is going on. Pretty sure Manwood will be doing exactly that, since it is their calling card. It’s nice to have the alarm bell, but I wouldn’t take anything definitive from it.
Kulak 39.5 and Desharnais 33.3. Broberg a miniscule 7.1
The DFF is more concerning that the goals given the samples.
I agreed that Manson runs the D well, I just didn’t expect to see those results.
Happily they’re killing the Grits in both DFF and GF%.
If I used NST correctly, it looks like Desharnais gets limited minutes with McD and Drai. This might explain the poor numbers vs. elites.
Since March 1, Desharnais has only played 26:39 with McD. 61:07 with Drai. 127:07 w/o Drai and McD.
That to both RB and WG for their analysis on this point.
One of a terrific set of posts. In February I posted that a RD line up of Ceci, Bouchard and Vinny D may not be enough and God help us if there is an injury. I like Bjugstad – man, that is a difficult name to spell – but McLeod, Ryan and Shore can all play centre. A hard assed 3/4 RD would have solidified the roster. JMHO.
Best wishes LT and thanks for everything.
How did you know Barrie was going to be traded before he was traded?
He may have been one of the many who commented on all the speculation prior to the deadline deals on whether Barrie should be traded and and the implications if that were to happen without another experienced right shot coming back.
Thank you Lowtide. Very nice and much appreciated writing. We’re all a small part of the LowTide team whether u like it or not and we couldn’t be prouder of it.
Evan Bouchard is establishing himself as an impact player now. There will be many who give Ekholm credit, and they should, but this is the final elite offensive player in the McDavid cluster and my goodness he’s going to make the Oilers pay if they bridge him. Two assists, good decisions, 6-32-28 through 80 games and a five-on-five goal share of 53 percent on the year.
100%, Mattias Ekholm should get SOME credit but lets not forget that for most of the season, Bouch’s production, procession and goal share numbers all under-represented the expected numbers.
Bouch was running alot of bad luck and, to my eye, had already started to turn the corner well before Ekholm arrived.
At the same time, Bouch was still making the very visible and costly defensive mistake with some regularity, even while his offensive game had regressed up to more normal levels. THAT has been cut down big time since Ekholm arrived.
Bouch and Ekholm with McDavid is absolute pure fire. Bouch made a diagonal seam pass to McDavid prior to the first goal last night that started the play – he didn’t get an assist but it was a subtle, quick, effective and talented play.
There is likely no money to not bridge Bouch. Here is hoping they can get him signed long term but I just don’t see. path – committed cap needs to go out just to bridge him at $3MM let alone give him term.
I’ve been saying all along he’s going to be a top 5 producer at evens and, once he gets the PP1, well, elite offensive production is coming.
If Yamo and Kulak are moved for picks and replaced with ELC,s or million dollar vets, can we get some extra term on Bouchard with a contract approaching 5 mill?
The future Bouchard contracts are going to be interesting negotiations. I wonder if there are more cap efficient ways to spend 5 million dollars
Points get paid in this league, and Bouchard is going to put up points. I’m still not convinced on his defensive game. I saw him get walked in the slot again last night by Thomas Hertl, and he still seems to “zone out” too much for my liking. I would sign him to as long a deal as possible in that 3 to 4 million range. If it’s 8 years, great. But I’m guessing 3 would be the max term he would accept.
If you bridge Bouchard for 3 years at 4 million he will be a lot more expensive to sign again. However, Eckholms contract will be finished at that point, and you do have the option to walk away from Bouchard, if his defense doesn’t improve. 3 years from now it may come down to a choice between Broberg and Bouchard.
You know what player type is easy to find right now?
The answer is 2nd or 3rd pairing PP quarterbacks.
I wouldn’t pay Bouchard big money and term until he proves he’s more than that.
I also wouldn’t go long on Bouchard now, but not because I’m unsure of the player.
For me it’s more about how to best maximize the chances of winning a cup in the next few years. For me that’s to keep Bouchard as affordable as possible on a bridge and use the rest of the money on other parts of the roster.
You read my mind. The next few years have to be the focus for this team. If Bouchard becomes too expensive after that then he becomes a valuable trade option. You can’t lock up every member of the team in a capped league.
I can’t find any news on clan McLeod. To me, he’s the key to having a competitive bottom 6. Along with Jugs, they’d be utterly terrifying at C for any team to play against. That’d also go a long way to reduce wear and tear on McLeon playing 4th line mins.
I’d love to see him get a few reps in before the end of the season….
I think that it was Gregor that said he would get into a game before regular season end? They put him on LTIR to be able to bring up Demers for a game, but only because he is already past the time off for injury that he could be immediately taken off again and put in the active lineup.
Yup, the verbal from Holland a little bit ago was they hoped to have him McLeod back for the last couple of games.
The further update about a week ago was that he’d be about a week.
The latest update was he could be ready to go for Tuesday.
He’s eligible to come off LTIR now. I presume we see the Demers re-assignment and McLeod activation tomorrow.
Demers re-assignment official. Here is hoping McLeod is activated for Tuesday.