Ken Holland is weighing his options now and we’re left to wonder how many he has at this point in summer. This roster is going to change, but let’s check in for our first RE estimate and see how this thing shines.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A deeper look at Mike Smith’s comments after signing with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
- Lowetide: Oilers add free agent Markus Granlund, creating a crowded depth chart at left wing
- Jonathan Willis: Tomas Jurco is a nice little reclamation bet by the Oilers.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How re-signing winger Alex Chiasson impacts the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers add Mike Smith to an uneasy goalie depth chart for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers buy out Andrej Sekera, look to a more dynamic free-agent frenzy.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”
RE 2019-20 ESTIMATE
Looking long and hard for volume shooters to elevate to a skill line is damned difficult for the current Oilers. Tyler Benson (2.54 shots per game in the AHL), Joakim Nygard (2.94 shots per game in the SHL) and Sam Gagner (8.13 five-on-five shots per 60) are candidates for feature roles, but it’s a moving target for this Oilers team. He’s my first attempt at RE for 2019-20, understanding changes will come.
Leon Draisaitl [41]—Connor McDavid [44]—Zack Kassian [13]
Milan Lucic [9]—RNH [23]—Alex Chiasson [12]
Markus Granlund [11]—Gaetan Haas [7]—Joakim Nygard [10]
Jujhar Khaira [7]—Colby Cave [4]—Sam Gagner [10]
Tomas Jurco [7]—Cooper Marody [4]
Oscar Klefbom [8]—Adam Larsson [3]
Darnell Nurse [8]—Kris Russell [2]
Caleb Jones [2]—Matt Benning [5]
Brandon Manning [0]
Mikko Koskinen [.912]—Mike Smith [.905]
My estimate has Edmonton scoring 230 goals, allowing 252. That’s a massive year over year improvement, most of it defensively. In 2018-19, the Oilers were 229-271 (-42) and my initial 2019-20 RE has the team -22, owing mostly to a massive improvement in goals against (+19 season over season). How will they get it done? I’m giving a lot of credit to Dave Tippett and shot suppression. In the Coyotes final season before Tippett, the team allowed 2591 shots. The following year? 2427. He also increased shots for by 200, but the Oilers currently employ a group who are unlikely to take full advantage. We’ll see what the summer brings in terms of roster improvement.
There are some concerns, mostly surrounding how much time on ice Broberg will receive. Oscar Klefbom played 33 games in the SHL in draft +1, seeing the ice 13:44 per game and scoring 2-0-2.
All our trials, lord, soon be over. McDavid healthy is absolutely vital for a team that has so little going on. I don’t buy the idea that he’s going to ask for a trade next summer if the team misses the playoffs, and I sure as hell don’t believe Ken Holland would grant his wish if the request were made. However, a full season without McDavid gets Edmonton in Alexis Lafrenière territory. If that happens, and it could, the Oilers get another ridiculous talent and who knows what happens.
LUCIC TRADE?
Kurt Leavins reported yesterday ” The next $3m bonus for Milan Lucic is payable July 17th” and then opined on the possibility of a trade that saved some cap room for Edmonton. Music! Would you trade Lucic and Jesse Puljujarvi for Brandon Sutter? Same package for Zack Smith?
It’s a shame that things have reached this point with the kid. Blame one side, blame both sides…at this point it doesn’t matter. The sole issue at this point is that the Oilers have an ‘asset’ that hasn’t proven his worth and a team that desperately needs him to because of the lack of depth in that position.
Rock, meet hard place.
I trust in Holland to do the right thing for the organization. If Jesse is to go elsewhere then I think he’s going to get the benefit of the doubt for awhile but if past behaviour is an indicator of future behaviour then his time in the NHL might be shorter than he might realize.
This is pure awesome.
The thing that everyone seems to be forgetting is that Puljujarvi’s season ended with major surgery on both hips. The kid was not only getting yanked around by the organization, he was playing with a chronic and painful injury that required significant surgery.
A year of development for Jesse would be a luxury that I don’t beleive this current roster can afford. A healthy 21 year old year old Puljujarvi is a perfect fit for the roster. A place on Connor’s wing is the ideal opportunity for this player.
Need meets opportunity. If you can’t see that you’re not alone, you’re just like Jesse’s Agent.
If everyone is singing Kumbyah after 30 – 40 games of the Connor and Jesse show all the better! All that I am saying is that there is a path forward out of this stalemate, and that Holland appears to be holding all the keys to a reconciliation.
Punishing the player for hurting the Team’s feelings is not the best utilization of the player as an asset and ultimately just hurts the team. The former management could never get this right, hopefully Holland can.
The resolution of the “Jesse Situation” will be a major tell to all of us if the management of the organization has actually shifted.
The fallacy here is that Jesse isn’t a child anymore, nor was he recently introduced to our culture and language. He has played 3 seasons in North America now and is 21 years of age. I have zero doubt that playing in Liiga or KHL would be more comfortable for Jesse, but if the issue here is that the player is resting on his talent and isn’t willing to put the work in (as has been suggested) then going to an easier league isn’t the answer.
I’ve spent a lot of time teaching and training children and youths. Sometimes kids get overwhelmed on an emotional level and just need a place they feel comfortable to be able to perform well.
Jesse seems like a good kid who’s having some trouble getting comfortable and finding his place with the Oilers. I don’t think this is a “sink or swim” moment for him. Moving him to a place and a team and a culture that he is more accustomed to where there are fewer distractions for him may be helpful. Maybe his hockey won’t develop as significantly, but maybe him as a person will, and that will facilitate growth in hockey later.
Hard to say based solely on speculation, but it seems completely reaonsable to me. Here’s my analogy: Imagine if You went to play in the KHL and you weren’t learning Russian well and the people and culture were a mystery to you. You don’t make friends on the team, you’re lost in the city you play in and you don’t want to go down a league (what’s below the KHL?) because it will be more of the same with less support in smaller towns.
Maybe what would be best for you is to come play in the AHL or ECHL to get you comfortable being you and playing pro hockey?
I don’t disagree at all – its all pure speculation on what is happening in the room but it does seem somewhat evident that something is happening in there at least with respect to Jesse.
Reja,
His NHL game and hockey sense is so lacking, I really don’t think any NHL team is willing to make a decent offer or would have time and patience to get him right without taking him off the ice for a time, which is counter to what he and his agent seem to want.
Reps in the KHL to get his confidence and game back is the best option, and maybe the Oilers get a better trade piece back next year.
The Oilers can QO him for two more seasons if he and his agent want to play hardball that long.
I don’t see how having success in an easier league will teach Jesse how hard he has to work to be successful in the NHL. Seems counterintuitive.
Europe is probably the most realistic option, I’m not sure it’s the best one for the team and player though.
IMO if he really wants a trade he’s going to have to earn it by proving he can succeed at the NHL level. Playing well in Liiga is great but it doesn’t prove anything vis-a-vis the NHL and I’m not convinced that a plus season in a lesser league will raise his trade value by a lot.
Been saying the same thing for a quite a while now. IMO This player believes he can play based on talent alone and has NOT put in the work it takes to be a top player in top league.
This player has to go back to Europe to learn he has to work hard if he wants to play in the NHL.
I’d bet if we went back and reviewed the comments on Yak his last couple of years we’d be reading the same comments as we are now on JP.
We need to move on from this player. Send him back over seas and forget about him for a year or two.
Doing this also sends a message to the Broberg’s .. If you want to play in the NHL…put the work in with that talent and you will be rewarded..
JMO.
Hopefully.
I’m not sure where the ceiling is on this goalie tandem, but the floor is very very low.
Well clearly he hasn’t figured it out yet so that’s not seven months. Puck drops in three months. JP demanded a trade, his agent reiterated those thoughts only days ago. I think it’s a fantasy of epic proportions to think he’s going to change his mind in three months and then jump into the lineup, play with McDavid and start lighting it up. Playing a year in Europe is the most realistic best option for the team and player.
He’s got all summer to figure his shit out. Actually, since he hasn’t played since February 15 and isn’t due at TC until mid-September, that gives him 7 months to figure his shit out. If he can’t do it in 7 months I’m not sure what good another few months will do.
I agree with all of this.
Actually I don’t understand your point. JP has made it quite clear he doesn’t want to play here. It doesn’t matter who is to blame, but JP clearly has some shit to figure out. That will be best served in Europe; not in the NHL or on McDavid’s wing. And if he ever does play and perform well on McDavid’s wing for 40 games, there would be no point in trading him because he’s; A) obviously decided to return to the Oilers and; B) he’s performing well.
I agree with you. A year of development in Europe just might be the best thing for Puljujarvi’s hockey career. Unfortunately, with the current Oiler Roster so barren of potential scoring wingers I’m not sure a year of Jesse developing in Europe is the best thing for the Oilers.
Jesse Puljujarvi is no Ray Martynuik. Jesse doesn’t have a Ken Dryden blocking his path and Martyniuk didn’t score 12 goals in 65 games as a 19-year-old in the most difficult hockey league in the world. Which would have been mind-blowing for Ray to accomplish seeing as he played goalie, but I trust you get my point.
Question – If Jesse is happy and healthy and playing on McDavid’s wing how many goals might he score in the first 40 games of the season?
More than Lucic? Sure. More than Nygard? Sure. More than Jurco? Sure. More than Granlund? Probably. More than Kassian? Maybe. You see where I’m going with this exercise. My bold prediction is that if Jesse played the first 40 games on Connor’s wing and got some PP time, he’d have 10 goals… easy.
Next Question, what is the trade value of a fast 21 year old power forward on a 20 goal scoring pace? If you answered more than what Jesse Puljujarvi is worth today, you understand my point.
Added bonus – Playing Jesse with Connor, permits the Oilers to pair up Nuge and Leon and gives the team a legit framework for a top six. Super Nova Connor can carry his own line, Leon and Nuge together can play in any top six in the NHL.
I’m not saying sign Pulju to a lifetime contract. Just, might we please try to maximize the value of our asset before we depose of them for pennies on the dollar… again.
I like the patience that Holland is showing with the “Jesse Situation”, he’s being firm, but he’s also leaving the door open to reconciliation. Build the bridge Kenny, you can do it!
If Connor McDavid has proved anything during his time in Edmonton, its that he is a good soldier and that he is mature beyond his years (as well as being the best hockey player in the world!). No one should doubt that if Jesse Puljujarvi can help the Edmonton Oilers win Hockey games, Connor McDavid will welcome him on his hockey club.
Now, let’s get back to the OP & Reja debate – play nice Gents!
I knew that if I stuck around long enough I’d be rewarded….
Sociologists are flocking from around the world to see the spectacle. The overzealous vs the obsessive. Let’s imagine…
They would be like the table of bettors at the Casino Royale. Only, I think they both have twitchy eyes. Both excited to be playing & can’t wait for the next hand.
One of them used to be bold & make wild eyed predictions but after many stunning defeats, they have backed off and play more cautious. He doesn’t drink but is constantly diverted by the unequal stacks of chips that the other players have amassed. Constantly yelling, YOU MUST HAVE 50 NOT 49!!! He rarely leaves the room except when he steps out into the hall to do 50 pushups. He carries and uses a well worn & squeaky wrist exerciser which annoys the other players. He only sweats when his chips are an odd number & can’t stack them evenly. He goes on about his lifestyle, holidays & how work keeps him away from the table. He’s very committed to his game but many feel that he’s just going to one day pass-out & sleep for 30 hours.
The other, willing to go all in cause they believe a 2 & 3 will beat that pair of AAs across the table. He is very opinionated & rambles on in unintelligible bursts that no one can understand. One sentence bleeds into the next without pause so keeping track of the topic with him is nearly impossible. He’s also running back & forth to the bar trying anything & everything that is on the liquor list. He sweats profusely & his cards are always damp & stuck together. His excitement causes him to leave “conversation spots” on anything within a meter around him as he boldly proclaims his infallible strategy. His clothes look fairly modern but rumor has it he’s from the Ozarks & has an unhealthy love for his sister.
Imagine the information that would be gathered by future superior aliens if the only surviving record of mankind was the LOWETIDE CHRONICLES…
Excellent post
Fire JP into the sun and move on. He failed the organization and the organization failed him.
Would not be shocked at all to learn Jesse is a goofy, fun-loving guy who was so much more talented than his peers that he didn’t actually have to try until he hit the NHL
I love the fascination with “unlocking” the potential, as if he’s ever shown anything in the NHL remotely resembling a star prospect. He looks more like Late Stage Ethan Moreau TBH.
Just think he’s another in the long line of professional athletes who don’t want to put in the crazy hours needed to make tbe NHL.
+1
If JP ever comes back and he can play and contribute, I can almost guarantee he will be welcome with open arms.
I hated Smith because he was a hotdog, now I love Smith because he’s a hotdog on our team. If he stays healthy both him and Tippett know it’s the last hooray. Tippett will put Smith in a position to succeed they will give it everything they have in the tank. Smith is a gamer he’ll be gunning for the bonus. Oilers will make the playoffs yes the Oilers will make the playoffs with the calm coaching of Tippett.
I find it hard to believe McDavid and the core went out of their way to make life difficult for JP. As young kids themselves, they are likely ill equipped to deal with the challenges that come with grooming another even younger kid. Plus we have zero knowledge of anything in the dressing room.
Connor McDavid is 22 years old. It’s kinda silly actually to think he wouldn’t have flaws as a captain.
The best thing that can happen to JP is to go to Europe and prove to the world that he is an elite player. Maybe more importantly, prove to himself that he is an elite player. The solution is NOT to staple him to McDavid for 40 games or even four games. It no longer matters why he is cutting ties with the Oilers. Now he has to find his own way. If he’s truly elite, he will do that.
You have changed my mind… thanks again for walking me through your logic!
It terrifies me. I try not to think about it.
I can’t piece it together how can Jesse’s agent land Kosh a homerun full sprint to the bank and cash that Cheque before Pete sobers up deal. Then turnaround and completely cave in Jesse’s career being a incompetent tool makes no sense there has to be other folks involved.
Unfortunately, Jesse’s agent has shot his bolt too soon. He’s gone full “move him now” and very publically. You get one of those per career, if you’re good enough. Like Patrick Roy good enough. What if he goes to the ‘canes and the same shit happens?
It’s almost too late now. Things are being said. Shit is being done that there’s no going back from saving face. Pride. It’ll shoot your eye out, man.
Jesse isn’t holding out for money, correct me if I’m wrong but he up and quit on his team do you really think there going to have a big party for him if he returns. He has alienated himself big time he fuked up. I will be surprised if he plays another game with us.
I don’t expect any more value at this point as we’ve seen what market value currently is – less than an overpaid middling player like Rust.
Given the foregoing, I don’t expect Jesse to be traded as Holland has been clear he wants value back (although he either values Rust more than me or Jesse less than me). He should either get his head on straight and sign with the Oilers and be ready to compete, head back to Europe or simply not play hockey.
I expect a return along the line of Tolaven (a similar pedigree prospect that his also struggling to make it) but it doesn’t seem available.
OriginalPouzar,
If that return is disappointing to you, how much more value than Rust/comparable do you expect in a 1-for-1 JP trade (either a prospect, or a roster player)?
I liked Jesse up until these demands, he made it clear he doesn’t want to play for my Oilers. Holland will set the tone and let him rot in the KHL unless he can get a top 6 winger back. I do think Jesse with a new no pressure start like the canes may save his career.
This thread is fascinating…
Original Pouzar and Reja having a discourse…
We’re talking about two posters that co-lead this blog in rigid thinking /60 having a discussion.
Two posters whose opinions are immutable to change.
It’s surreal.
Of course the agent shouldn’t run the show but its been clear that his agent has indeed had a large say in how the Oilers have deloped the player to this point – that was all pre-HOlland and I have been greatly critical or prior management on this point.
I agree that Holland shouldn’t give in and I am against any sort of trade that doesn’t provide material value back – i would have been upset if PIT didn’t turn down the rumored rust trade and, frankly, am disapointed that Holland may have been amendable to that trade.
Maybe just maybe they’re trying to be nice in a roundabout way.
I’m not trying to be rude but a agent of a career 17 goal scorer does not run the show. Holland will not give in to Jesse’s demands. Sometimes a player just doesn’t turn out who’s fault is it if it’s not mostly Jesse’s fault
I will not continue this conversation if you speak to me like that again.
1) It appears Jesse’s agent has had a large say in his development path over the last few years
2) It appears that only Koskinen has gone out of his way to try and help Jesse – the others you mention, the core of the team, well, it appears they may have done the opposite
3) I do not buy in to any player being immune to criticism
You mean the media that is largely thought of to be a mouthpiece for the organization? I don’t think you need help answering that question.
Do Labanc and Puljujarvi have the same agent?
If you enter ‘cut the mustard’ into google, the example they give very much pertains to this thread and Milan Lucic.
further, further on Brassard
in 16-17 with OTT his EvP1/60 was 1.08 (not great)
EVP/60 1.56
this last year, he wasn’t having a great year but his numbers were further dinged by getting one EV point in 20 games with COL (a goal).
He played on 3 teams in 18-19
His EVP/60 with each was:
PIT 40 GP 1.16
FLA 10GP 1.39
COL 20 GP .24
Ray Martyniuk, he was the Canadians #4 overall in 1970 2 picks before Darryl Sittler. Everyone can make a mistake. I think that JP is seriously flawed and Chia and Oilers mis-handled him as well.
they took his backup, Cal Hammond too
I’m not buying that, not in the least.
Exactly
Going to go out on a limb here and say there is likely a gentleman’s agreement between both parties that hey, take a 1 year paycut and we’ll make it worth your while next year.
Honestly I have no problem with it – assuming this wasn’t a case where the team and agent colluded against the player.
With this new nickname sprouting up here, all I can think about is Colby, back when he used to write a lot of articles about the Oilers, years ago.
What part don’t you understand Jesse agent does not dictate shit it’s not Connor Leon Nuge Lucic Kosh etc fault that he appears to have no hockey sense they’ve all gone out of their way to help him figure it out. And anyone questioning McDavid will and leadership skills at such a young age is pure Blasphemy.
#BecauseLeafs?