Although 2018-19 was Connor McDavid’s most challenging year since his rookie campaign, the quality of his time on ice was obvious. When on the ice with Leon Draisaitl at even strength (888 minutes), Edmonton outscored opponents 75-60 (55.56 percent). Music!
When McDavid was on the ice (at even strength) without Draisaitl? Goals were 22-34 (39.29 percent) and that’s a concern. Draisaitl without McDavid? 19-30 (38.78 percent). Oilers without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice at even strength? 64-85, 42.95. What the hell? Exactly.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
THE WHO BY NUMBERS
The Oilers a year ago were so bad that the McDavid double shifts went for a powder. McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played together for 351 minutes (even strength, without Leon) and were outscored 16-19 (45.71).
McDavid with Draisaitl and Kassian at even strength? 27-22 in 292 minutes. McDavid with Kassian and without Leon? 4-7 in 145 minutes.
McDavid with Draisaitl and Chiasson at even strength? 19-15 in 263 minutes. McDavid with Chiasson and without Leon? 2-5 in 41 minutes. All of this is available via NaturalStatTrick and is a fascinating look at a frustrating season.
TIPPETT’S OPTIONS
James Neal is an obvious option to add to either the McDavid or (likely) Nuge line, Edmonton needs him to shoot the puck 200 times and post something close to a 10 percent shooting percentage. Neal delivered 141 shots last season, suspect he’ll pass that total (if healthy). I am close to the end of the RE estimates and still haven’t decided on Neal’s power-play time.
I think Tippett will try Neal with Nuge on the second line, that’s the logical solution. Part of the issue is Nuge’s performance last season with possible solutions. At even strength, his goal differentials with partner: Sam Gagner (6-12 in 130 minutes); Zack Kassian (13-10 in 193 minutes); Jujhar Khaira (8-9 in 185 minutes); Alex Chiasson (13-15 in 315 minutes).
So, I think Tippett might look at the math and the tape and decide to go Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian, secure in the knowledge the trio were 27-22 in about 300 minutes of even strength time.
He might also decide to run Nuge with Neal and Chiasson, two more veterans. He said as much recently. Now. We know there are a bunch of options, veterans and kids, pushing for playing time on skill lines. Who would be first on your list?
THIRD LINE
We’ve been discussing Gaetan Haas as the possible third line center, although Dave Tippett did tell Daniel Nugent Bowman that Sam Gagner played some pivot for him in Phoenix. Jujhar Khaira was also mentioned recently.
I wonder about a Khaira-Gagner combination on the No. 3 line, with Gagner taking RH faceoffs and Khaira the LH faceoffs. Khaira is unable to win enough faceoffs against either left or right to be considered a strong option. I think there’s something to Khaira, he’s a worthwhile third-line option. Right now, it’s more about Haas than we’d like it to be, Holland clearly values him.
TIPPETT ON TYLER BENSON
“Tyler Benson is one of those guys. He could come in here and find a niche and push somebody out or push somebody down in the lineup. I’m hoping we have situations like that because that makes your team better.” Source
This quote has been made in one form or another by every Oilers coach since Slats. It’s a good sign, these young prospects are close enough to be evaluated seriously, and in some cases might win jobs. Important to recognize what is happening here: The head coach is discussing Benson on the NHL roster, pushing more established players down the depth chart.
TIPPETT AND KHAIRA
One of the things I’m looking forward to this winter is Tippett’s usage of players who can help but are not complete players. Brad Richardson, Jordan Martinook, et cetera. I think Khaira and Josh Archibald are two candidates and hope Tippett has enough time to see Matt Benning and what he can do to help a team.
Buck Rodgers, the old Expos manager, rebooted so many careers simply by not worrying about what the player couldn’t do, and focusing on strengths. Otis Nixon hits popups to shortstop? Well, he can bunt and run fast enough to beat out infield hits, and we can pinch run him when he isn’t in the lineup. Same with Rex Hudler. He straightened away Dennis Martinez and turned Tim Burke into a solid closer. I believe Dave Tippett will impact a few players that way.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun Friday to end the week and kickstart the long weekend. TSN1260, beginning at 10. Steve Lansky will be by to talk Jays at the trade deadline and a huge Argos win. Schuyler Dixon covers the Cowboys for AP Dallas-Ft. Worth and we’ll talk Cowboys. Matt Iwanyk will stop in to chat about tomorrow’s game (Esks-Stamps) in which the winner will be in first place.
Last time I checked, 21 years old is a man. He’s playing in a man’s league, not a little boy’s league. So man up Jesse and act in an honorable and responsible fashion. Or not and take the heat. At this point I really don’t care … this player is dead to me. Not an Oiler. And there’s a very old and very appropriate saying that applies here: stupid is as stupid does. So do I know categorically that Jesse is stupid? No, and I never claimed such (you might Google the word “maybe”). But it sure is looking that way.
As Oilers fans, we don’t get to call a player the village idiot when our collective management team has held that title for so long.
It’s not Jesse’s fault he was drafted so high… it’s our management’s fault. He’s not the player the Oilers want him to be so they blame him for not living up to their expectations. It’s Dustin Penner vs MacT all over again (“he’s big and strong… why doesn’t he play mean too?!” except this time it’s “he’s a former 4th overall… why can’t he drive his own line and why does he need actual coaching?”).
The Oilers with Chia and Tambellini developed a past of not doing due diligence. I don’t like Jesse’s stance now, but the Oilers aren’t getting a pass from me on this situation.
How about not making any overall judgement on a 21 year old kid based off of some decisions that you don’t agree with, as a biased fan, and profess that a 21 year old kid, you’ve never met and only know by a minutia of public identity, is an idiot, stupid, etc.?
Very well put!
I agree and also take issue with, all of a sudden, many professing that this person (not player) is an idiot, with low intellect and stupidity. I mean, come on, the info we have on Puljujarvi as a person is minimal and its low brow to make judgement on him as a person based off of a few public comments. Yes, his current decisions seem to be poor choices but to call the person an idiot is too much. No, its not to his face but, come on Oiler Nation, lets be better!
Clearly I agree, as I data I posted (and the great additions you made to it) are fairly evident.
I will say that, with respect to the very end of your post, I won’t agree that if they are giving up a bunch of odd man rushes, etc. against that it “doesn’t matter”, I think it does matter, but that they are clearly on the ice for more positive chances than they give up, including high danger chances, and that is primary.
I don’t think he understands how this works.
I haven’t been hot on acquiring Krieder because he’s one year to UFA and then would need a fairly large raise I’m sure.
I’m not sure if we can afford to re-sign him – he’ll be 29 when next season starts so, if we can sign him for like 4 years is that the substantial top 6 guy we want to spend out money on for next season?
We only have the cap space for one substantial signing and that presupposes a Russell disposition for cap space.
I dug in to the numbers on Krieder yesterday and they are phenomenal – year after year he’s strongly positive in ALL metrics, in particular goal share, and he’s strongly positive in ALL metrics relative to his teammates. He is an analytics darling and also passes the eye test and is fast.
The more I think about it, the more I am on board trading for him but only if we can re-sign him and only for 3-4 years.
Finland/Sweden at 11
Canada/US at 2
Haven’t seen any lineups but hope each of Silkanen, Broberg, Lavoie and Rodrigue are playing – could be none of them as they all played in their team’s previous games.
Saviour. Right.
Luc, just keep on keeping on down there in Calgary. Everything will be just fine. You still get to keep your money.
New for The Athletic: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months
https://theathletic.com/1113749/2019/08/03/lowetide-ken-hollands-roster-construction-options-for-the-oilers-over-the-next-seven-months/
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/lucic-admits-he-put-too-much-pressure-on-himself-with-oilers/ar-AAFdOZB?li=AAggXBR&ocid=mailsignout
Lucic comments yesterday
No. Not even post of the day. Jesse is not merely choosing to turn away from what we call an opportunity. That would look more like deciding to go back home to play in Europe. No, what Jesse is doing by demanding a trade more resembles immature, adolescent behavior. There is no noble aspect to this that should be admired. Just more self-centered I want what I want and I want it now.
This might be too soon and I got jumped on this previously but I really think with Jesse out of the picture this will benefit my man weighing in at a modest 203 pounds and standing at a incredible height of 6 foot 7 the one the only Mikko KOSKINEN!
Well shit … at least I’m consistent. What state is Columbus located in again … Ohiowa?
Post of the decade.
Carolina – Lol. That’s twice now. Brutal.
Apparently this already happened a week or so ago.. One of the talking heads had tweeted that agent had been given permission to find own trade cause nothing satisfactory found by Holland.
Personally I would rather Jesse sit in Europe for good rather than dumping him for a 3rd rounder like Chia got for Yak. Team needs to stick to its guns here
Every village has one … someone has to be on the low end of the distribution. So if village idiot is too harsh, what would you suggest in this era of political correctness where everyone earns a gold star? Emotionally underdeveloped? Socially challenged? Intellectual late bloomer? Wet behind the ears? Whatever.
I also disagree with the premise that every other team would have taken him if the Oilers didn’t. When Carolina passed it was a huge, huge, huge red flag. A sea of red flags. This is a team that had more access to information on Jesse than any other and they passed hard. Recall that there was a top three that year with a perceived fall off thereafter. What should the Oil have done once they picked their collective jaws from the floor? Trade out, if possible, or select Keith’s kid. That is the smart move when you realize you are the mark in the room … try to get out alive.
As to the rest of the post, I will give it the response it deserves.
Every day, in every part of the world, people turn away from what others see as “opportunity” and they are judged. Usually without full knowledge of that persons situation, how they see the world and how they put that ‘opportunity’ in the context of the rest of their lives. Rightly or wrongly.
As fans we can cheer for the team or players, management etc. Trash them all, too. As players, management etc. But that doesn”t give us the right to trash them as people unless their actions are ‘trash’ or otherwise violate societal norms, etc.
As far as I know, JP is a 20 year old kid who has not done this. He is merely chosing to turn away from what we call an opportunity. Lots of cash and fame for sure. Maybe more by our choices. Maybe what he needs by his.
Lets keep our judging to the impact of the team rather than the value of that human being. Or speculation on their motives.
Thanks
Ok. But village idiot is too harsh. Every other team would have taken him if the Oilers didn’t.
Would you call him that to his face?
It’s easy to call it as you see it when there are no consequences isn’t it.
To me when people act like this I think coward. Phony. I hope you aren’t.
First, the rates Armchair posted would rank (among the Oilers main 6 D over the same span):
CF-1st
FF-1st
SF-1st
GF-2nd (Benning overall is was better)
xGF-1st (Benning and Klefbom were basically the same overall)
SCF-1st
HDCF-5th
HDGF-1st
More to your point, their “against” rates (what they gave up) were also exceptional:
CA-1st
FA-2nd (behind Sekera, who played most of his games in 16-17 when everyone’s against numbers were better)
SA-2nd (behind Sekera)
GA-4th (behind Sekera, Russell and Benning overall)
xGA-1st
SCA-2nd (Benning overall was better)
HDCA-1st
HDGA-1st
I know you can’t be convinced. But Klefbom-Benning were excellent not only in their for/against rates, but also in what they actually gave up defensively. At least by everything measurable that’s available to us.
If you look at just the last 2 years (removing the Sekera-Russell magic from 16-17) Klefbom-Benning together were better than any other Oilers defensemen overall in every single “against” category.
The mismatches and odd man rushes you recall were inconsequential to the overall results on the ice, as well as to the chances against, shots against, goals against, etc etc etc that the Oilers gave up with them on the ice.
Whatever you were seeing was either:
1) not real, or,
2) did not matter
Of Dougie I have no idea, but given a RD of his skill and size that no team seems to value as a keeper? Must be a locker room or off ice thing. Seriously. Why else?
She was distilling some fine Lynchburg lemonade there.
Hankster,
It’s kind of irrelevant. All that matters is how Jesse feels about the room and the organization, And apparently it’s not with happy thoughts. However we are also seeing some very poor judgement on display from Pujo and those observations bring a lot of things into question with regards to the player himself.
The signs that it’s more than just hockey sense with Pujo are becoming unequivocal.
Well reasoned observation … fresh take and insightful. Thanks for sharing that.
Blame the player eh? NEVER been done in a fish bowl Canadian market.
How do we know that Jesse was not liked in the dressing room. He appears to be and sounds like a country bumpkin with very little exposure to anything. He feels left out and does not want to return to the same team. Understandable. No one here knows if mcdavid drai or nuge likes or dislikes him.
I think we are generally on the same page here.
As oppossed to Jesse and Kailer and even Bouchard, Benson has already played AHL games, significant AHL games, and has a very high level of success – before he’s played an NHL game.
Looking back, Jesse’s 18 year old season in the AHL was actually quite solid given he was the youngest player in the North American pro hockey – I imagine things may be different if it was 60 games played.
Benson has already established himself as a high end AHL player and all he can do now is show continued progression in camp and exhibition – 7 points in 5 games in exhibition won’t show he’s NHL ready but it will check off the next box – a plus NHL camp. Whether that would get him on the team or he goes down to blow the doors off the AHL for a few weeks (or so), we will find out.
Dougie Hamilton style?
Jesse plus will be traded before seasons start. I felt it was Lucic last game in Edmonton after his post season interviews I believe they had a deal with Van but Eriksson balked it. Calgary was plan B and it was in place or very close before July 1st that’s why Holland didn’t go after a top 6 he new he had Neal in the bank.
My difficulty is with your hard core line that training camp and preseason doesn’t have value in determining NHL readiness. I agree to a certain extent if it is a stand alone sample. In Benson’s case he is coming off a very productive AHL campaign therefore a good preseason is a continuation of good play and could get him a roster spot to start the season. My guess would be he starts in the AHL and is first call up in the event of injury or another player struggles.
Only in Edmonton does JP have a realistic shot of riding shotgun to the world’s best player. (Because Edmonton HAS the world’s best player and the rest of the team, Drai excepted, is frankly mediocre at best.) He’s going the way of bouncing around a couple of better teams’ 3rd/4th lines, then out the league.
I agree. He needs to keep his mouth shut, because sewering your own value is not the way to get traded.
I really think he’s oblivious to the opportunity here….and that’s on his agent.
Yah, Jimmy, read my first line again. “Shouldn’t the agent advise him against making exactly this kind of statement?”
I’m in your boat!
Huh? I didn’t say he wasn’t the consensus pick. He definitely was. The physical toolbox is undeniable. We literally drafted the village idiot who just happens to have some mad physical tools. Unfortunately, the rest of the league probably recognizes this as well at this point.
I think as you have said and LT has said Marody has pointed at a level that says NHL.
Tweeners have a fatal flaw. I hope he jumped on the Connor Leon train, recognizing a smallish player has to be have enough tools to keep a spot. Maybe he’s so gifted he succeeds but his audition didn’t suggest he’s a killer in the bigs.
Stick tap to my lemon tree for seeding the word “rollercoaster”.
Perfect
No, consensus pick by everyone. The issues being I don’t think Pete was thinking too far outside of his heavy box.
City of Champions[A dozen yellow men-at-work with hardhats.]
New signage:
World’s largest rollercoaster!
[Five remaining men-at-work with hardhats.]
Small sub-signage:
Bring lunch.
The problem being, it’s a very long ride.
I think I know why Cpt Kirk passed on him. Yes the C thing, but going on my instincts as an employer, after JP was on the team, and the off ice news we could read, I began to wonder, as I did with Yak.
Charming but odd behaviour off ice is a bit of a concern, if you want to play in the highest league in the world. To me it’s a sign of not being ready or able to do the ‘bro’ culture players seem to need to have.
ALERT hot deals to come.
Maybe it was more than just language issues with Jesse. Maybe it was more than just homesickness. Maybe it was more than adjusting to the smaller ice and the NHL game. Maybe it was more than problems in the dressing room. Maybe it wasn’t the agent at all. Maybe Carolina knew something from the beginning. Maybe we actually drafted the village idiot 4OV.
Skating without the requisite non-skating skills, same thing – unless one has a plus IQ and can carve out that Marchant-type of career. I’m not so sure they older Haas is that player.
Of course, I’ve never seen him play……
I have seen Marody play, even back to watching 5 Michigan games and dozens and dozens of Condors’ games, he has the NHL skill level and NHL smarts. We’ll find out if the “questionable boots” is prohibitive.
Although I only watched bits and pieces of the game today but I notices this when I watched Halifax in the playoffs, Lavoie seems to be a player that one might not notice much from shift to shift but pretty much every game he makes 2 or 3 really high level, individual offensive players – generally a combination of size, skill, speed and power.
Marginal players that can’t skate at an NHL level don’t help, at least on a strong team. There are hundreds of thousands of NHL talented players in the world. The difference is skating and personal drive.
Life lesson incoming for Mr. Jesse Puljujärvi in 3…2…1….
I’m loving it. There has been a serious lack of forwards that attack the net for years until Connor showed up. Far too much pretty and to the perimeter.
Being a risk to walk in or also have a shot that can score puts the D on it’s heels. Connor being awesome saw in his first year that he needed a shot to open his game and he figured it out by the following season. Perfect.
Props to Leon for also working to elevate his game straight away. That’s the difference between stars and good players.
Have a deficiency, fix it.