Blue Bayou

Connor McDavid is lightning on skates, pure adrenalin for hockey fans and almost impossible with his combination of speed and skill. How he can continue to shock quality defensemen amazes me. They know he’s fast, they know he’s going to drive to the net, but they can’t leave the inside so he goes wide. Except on Wednesday, when he was so fast the defensemen parted and he went down main street. McDavid’s nightmares per 60 has to be No. 1 among opposition defensemen. Fearsome.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Ethan Bear in the Oilers’ season opener
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Looking at how the Oilers can manage on defence without Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: No need to temper expectations after Connor McDavid’s season debut for Oilers
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: At home with Ken Holland: Packing away the championship memories and preparing for a new challenge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s fast start leads the way for Oilers prospects as 2019-20 gets underway
  • Lowetide: Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas bid for final Oilers spots during a strange game in Calgary
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: An educated guess at the Oilers’ opening-night roster
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
  • Jonathan Willis: Ethan Bear, Tomas Jurco outshine the competition in second-to-last Oilers preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Joakim Nygard managing his anger as he eyes spot on Oilers.
  • Jonathan Willis: Assessing the Oilers’ roster as the final positional battles are sorted out
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers cut Evan Bouchard and Shane Starrett. Is Ethan Bear on the cusp of making the team?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
  • Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

MCDAVID

After the game against Vancouver, it’ll be fascinating to see what Dave Tippett comes back with on Saturday. I don’t see McDavid playing with Nygard and Neal, so maybe it’ll be Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian and then Jurco-Nuge-Neal tomorrow night.

CAVE

Tippett’s options for the No. 3 line are basically waiting for Riley Sheahan to get better. Colby Cave played 11:10 at five-on-five on Wednesday and he’ll probably play the same on Saturday. Gaetan Haas will have to play more than 2:10.

LARSSON

Adam Larsson is a shutdown defenseman and a veteran. William Lagesson has a similar skill set but lacks experience, Kris Russell has been asked to play the role in his time in the NHL. Russell is the likely solution. Veteran coaches prefer veteran players for major roles. My prediction is Dave Tippett will play Russell with Nurse until it becomes obvious that it’s not working. Klefbom-Bear may remain and then the third pair will be two of Brandon Manning, Matt Benning and Joel Persson. Evan Bouchard has been recalled but is unlikely to play. I think William Lagesson should be considered. He might be the best option for a third pairing with Benning.

BAKERSFIELD

The Condors play tonight, the team’s roster is a rocket. Solid prospects like Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson, Dmitri Samorukov, Kailer Yamamoto, Caleb Jones, Cooper Marody, Kirill Maksimov, William Lagesson, Ryan McLeod, Shane Starrett, Stuart Skinner, Joe Gambardella and Josh Currie will be on display to begin the year, although Bouchard is in Edmonton at this time. Based on preseason scoring, might be an idea to watch for Kailer Yamamoto and Kirill Maksimov, Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody, Caleb Jones and Evan Bouchard:

I believe we’ll eventually see up to one dozen of these players in Edmonton during the regular season. Ken Holland said recently he’d like to see the group stay in Bakersfield until Christmas, or maybe even all year. Adam Larsson’s injury is the first challenge to the plan, there will be more.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will check in on MLB’s playoffs, the NHL season getting underway and the Oilers first game. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 will pop in at 11 and preview the CFL weekend and give early impressions on the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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197 Responses to "Blue Bayou"

  1. Pouzar says:

    In honor of OP, Riley Sheahan won’t make a material difference on that Arcibald/Khaira line…they may get a lot worser imo.

  2. defmn says:

    Isn’t Safin in the ECHL at this time. I think I read that here a week ago or so unless he was already recalled.

  3. Lowetide says:

    defmn:
    Isn’t Safin in the ECHL at this time. I think I read that here a week ago or so unless he was already recalled.

    Yes, those are preseason numbers in Bakersfield.

  4. PinkSocks says:

    Pouzar:
    In honor of OP, Riley Sheahan won’t make a material difference on that Arcibald/Khaira line…they may get a lot worser imo.

    If Jurco can go, then I think Khaira might be the winner to move over to C and drop Nygard (who I really liked vs Van).

    Jurco-McD-Neal
    RNH-Drai=Kass
    Nygard-JJ-Arch
    Cave-Haas-Chiasson

    Gives the 4th line 2 guys to win draws and it pulls powder puff Granlund out of the lineup.

  5. defmn says:

    Lowetide: Yes, those are preseason numbers in Bakersfield.

    Oh, sorry and thanks.

  6. tileguy says:

    So do we know exactly why Haas only played 2 minutes? If it was becauase of poor play why would coach put him back in the lineup?

  7. npanciroli says:

    Jurco and Sheahan used to form a great 3rd line for the Wings awhile ago IIRC. I like Sheahan just fine as a 3C I was always a bit surprised when we were being said to be looking for one still after signing him.

  8. Brantford Boy says:

    tileguy,

    Because Tippett reads this blog and knows we all want Marody recalled… it’s conspiracy at it’s finest…

    Adam… get well soon! Sincerely – every Oilers fan!

  9. Reja says:

    I checked the standings this morning and as of now Oilers still have a mathematical chance of making the playoffs even with Adam down.

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    Reja,

    You need the Java update…

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    A saying from my Army days:

    A good plan never survives the first fuck up.

    We’re seeing that in real time.

  12. jp says:

    From earlier. I did some legwork so I figured I’d post it in the new thread.

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Wondered about Smith.

    He Russell’s the puck out a lot by eye. Would love to see team shot metrics with him playing vs on the bench with the other goalie playing.

    Flames top 4 D at 5v5 with Smith or with Rittich last season (they played almost equal games and minutes):

    Brodie
    CF/60 61.9 59.7
    CA/60 45.8 50.5
    CF% 57.5 54.2

    SF/60 32.0 31.0
    SA/60 25.9 27.5
    SF% 55.2 53.0

    GF/60 3.4 2.5
    GA/60 2.1 2.2
    GF% 61.9 52.7

    SH% 10.7 7.9
    SV% .919 .920
    PDO 1.026 .999

    Hanifin
    CF/60 63.9 60.4
    CA/60 52.5 57.9
    CF% 54.9 51.1

    SF/60 33.4 33.3
    SA/60 27.9 32.0
    SF% 54.5 51.0

    GF/60 2.3 3.2
    GA/60 2.5 2.4
    GF% 47.3 57.1

    SH% 6.8 9.6
    SV% .910 .925
    PDO .977 1.021

    Giordano
    CF/60 68.2 65.0
    CA/60 47.3 49.9
    CF% 59.0 55.6

    SF/60 35.3 32.4
    SA/60 25.9 27.5
    SF% 57.7 54.1

    GF/60 4.0 3.1
    GA/60 2.2 2.4
    GF% 64.3 56.7

    SH% 11.4 9.6
    SV% .914 .914
    PDO 1.027 1.009

    Hamonic
    CF/60 66.1 64.5
    CA/60 53.8 56.1
    CF% 64.0 51.6

    SF/60 34.4 33.4
    SA/60 27.8 29.5
    SF% 55.3 53.1

    GF/60 2.67 3.61
    GA/60 2.97 2.51
    GF% 47.3 59.0

    SH% 7.8 10.8
    SV% .893 .915
    PDO .971 1.023

    So for each of the top 4 Flames D, the CF and SF were higher with Smith in net, and the CA and GA were lower. The goals didn’t always follow, but that’s impressive and compelling.

    But does it repeat? The flames had multiple goalies in addition to Smith in 17-18, and the WOWY doesn’t work since it only uses games where Smith plays (so others are not included).

    So I went back to 16-17 in Arizona where Smith played 55 games and Domingue was the main backup (31 games). Again, Smith first, Domingue 2nd.

    Goligoski
    CF/60 52.6 51.5
    CA/60 64.0 61.9
    CF% 45.1 45.4

    SF/60 27.9 27.2
    SA/60 34.3 32.6
    SF% 44.8 45.5

    GF/60 1.9 2.9
    GA/60 2.4 3.0
    GF% 44.8 48.9

    SH% 6.8 10.7
    SV% .932 .907
    PDO 1.000 1.014

    Ekman-Larsson
    CF/60 51.3 50.0
    CA/60 62.3 62.4
    CF% 45.2 44.5

    SF/60 28.3 24.9
    SA/60 33.5 32.5
    SF% 45.7 43.4

    GF/60 2.0 2.5
    GA/60 2.5 3.0
    GF% 44.9 45.5

    SH% 7.2 10.5
    SV% .926 .907
    PDO .988 1.008

    Murphy
    CF/60 50.2 50.3
    CA/60 57.0 60.6
    CF% 46.9 45.4

    SF/60 27.2 26.7
    SA/60 30.0 33.9
    SF% 47.5 44.1

    GF/60 1.6 2.7
    GA/60 2.5 3.1
    GF% 39.3 46.3

    SH% 6.0 10.1
    SV% .916 .908
    PDO .976 1.009

    Schenn
    CF/60 52.4 51.1
    CA/60 67.6 62.9
    CF% 43.7 44.8

    SF/60 27.8 24.5
    SA/60 35.3 32.4
    SF% 44.1 43.1

    GF/60 2.0 1.5
    GA/60 2.4 2.2
    GF% 45.0 40.9

    SH% 7.1 6.1
    SV% .932 .933
    PDO 1.003 .994

    Here we don’t see a clear effect of Smith on “for” or “against” metrics (on balance I think he helps the for and hurts the against slightly, but I didn’t calculate anything). I should probably have stopped after the Calgary set 🙂

    Maybe the Calgary numbers mean nothing? Maybe it takes a team that can move the puck once Smith sends it up to see an effect? I dunno.

    If nothing else I think we can say that he’s not a clear drag on corsi or shot against metrics. And I do take a little positive out of this, Smith might actually help the team with his stick handling though it’s hard to be sure.

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    OK. Slow news day?

    Lets get the clicks jump started here.

    So here we are.

    Lowly Kris Russell ~ who really isnt good enough to play 3rd pairing~ will be asked once again to put this defense unit on his back while ~useless~ Larsson convalesces.

    How about one of the darlings, like Handsome or Benning step up for change and carry this D while our anchor is out.

    But no. Its

    Nurse Russell
    Klefbom Bear
    XXX Benning

    Oh Yeah and ……. KASS is a Beauty!!!

  14. elgruntus says:

    AHL TV is offering a Free opening weekend. Just sign up with an email address and watch the Condors..for free

  15. Reja says:

    Any word on Riley? If he’s out longer than expected I can see a team that’s starts 1-5 and can’t score biting on a Jesse Plus trade for a paid well underperforming 3-C. Holland did clear a few bucks yesterday my spider senses tell me a Jesse trade is in the works.

  16. Wilde says:

    Deployment wise, based on last year, I would not be surprised to see this:

    Benson – Marody – Currie

    [ Steadily deployed for months last year, all the way into the spring until Marody was boarded and sidelined in the playoffs ]

    Gambardella – Malone – Yamamoto

    [ The two vets were never split to my viewing even when Russell was in Edmonton – they formed the most common and trusted line by deployment and games played together of anything put together last year and I would guess it’s put back together after Russell comes back down. Yamamoto there because he’s a killer retriever which fits the identity of the line as a high-skill chip&chasing one and will also certainly be in the top-six in general as he’s in the mix to be the best forward and player on the team imo ]

    Maksimov – McLeod – Safin

    [ This will probably be the 4th line by competition but the 3rd by TOI; it’s probably the most weighted towards my personal hopes vs. realistic projection because of the lack of a veteran but I think it’s underestimated just how bad most AHL bottom sixes are and the strength of this team’s top six earns a lot of soft opportunity for a line like this, plus McLeod is fairly responsible in the DZ. Next guess is Hebig at RW ]

    Starrett – Esposito – Stukel

    [ Letestu to McLellan is as Espo is to Woodcroft, Vesey got play he didn’t ‘earn’ – even in the playoffs – and I think Starrett’s going to follow that, also wouldn’t be surprised to see Peluso come in. Pure checking unit where Espo will run up the lineup for faceoffs occasionally but the opposite never happens. As with NHL 4th lines this one is both unpredictable and of little consequence in terms of personnel so it’s pretty uninteresting to project it ]

    Defense is pretty up in the air, I’d know if they streamed the preseason games. That third pairing of Samorukov – Desharnais is a good bet imo.

    Thing is, Lowe – Jones /never/ occurred by start in my sample and was never shifted to mid-game unless there was some broken changing. Never. Yet it makes the most sense here. If Bear was down this would be easy, it’d go like this:

    Lowe – Bear (Very common pair last year – though I think Lowe dragged it)
    Jones – Bouchard (Fucking disgusting.)
    Samorukov – Desharnais (Very Tall)

    The only question mark is/would be Bouchard in the top-four, but I’ve been higher on Bouch’s Bakersfield stint than I’ve seen anywhere written – though I don’t know how many who wrote about it watched/re-watched it with focus. That, and Jones is unstoppable at this level and could absolutely help along a rookie despite being a prospect himself in my opinion.

    I’m not particularly fond of Lowe playing top-pairing in this way if it does come to it, and hope the other pairings succeed in ways that balance it out from being a 45% v. elites pairing or whatever – not that the forward corps couldn’t rebalance things.

    Final note: in my tracking, when Kulevich played last year, it was alongside Lowe. So there’s precedent for that pairing. It wasn’t great, but part of the sample was against the Gulls in the playoffs after Bear went down and that short time vs that team without Marody or Bear and with a clearly concussed Gambardella was some of the toughest hours the team played all year.

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    jp,

    Nice work. And a lot of it . Thank You.

  18. PinkSocks says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    NurseRussell
    KlefbombBear
    XXXBenning

    You’re right. We all know Nurse Russell is a bad idea. Tippett said himself he has looked at some analytics with 97 & 29 from last season, which means he has certainly also looked at 25 & 4.

    Klef is going to be the guy that carries Bear or Persson and solidify a top 4 pairing. Nurse and Benning, theoretically, should be the other top 4 minute pairing. That still leaves Russell on the right side with either Manning or Lagesson. Either one is fine as long as it’s 3rd pairing 5v5 minutes.

  19. Wilde says:

    [also iunno about anyone else but the audio on the athletic stuff doesn’t work for me, i’m on microsoft edge]

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    jp,

    Great work, I’m thinking Smith got “Eberle’d” out of Calgary.

    (Good regular season, one nadir playoff moment/performance that idiots use as an excuse to trade you: Eberle’d)

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Wilde: Deployment wise, based on last year, I would not be surprised to see this:

    Benson – Marody – Currie

    [ Steadily deployed for months last year, all the way into the spring until Marody was boarded and sidelined in the playoffs ]

    Given what we’ve seen so far, and our injury situtation, this line looks like a pretty good option for the bottom six / energy line on the NHL roster right now.

    Will never happen under Holland though. Right?

  22. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Reverse Eberle’d?

    Smith was quality in the playoffs this past season, poor regular season

  23. PinkSocks says:

    Wilde:
    [also iunno about anyone else but the audio the athletic stuff doesn’t work for me, i’m on microsoft edge]

    I just had the same issue with Edge. Microsoft releases some updates and they can occasionally not be compatible with your audio driver.

    -In the search box on the taskbar “type device manager” and select it.
    -Sound, video & game controllers
    -right-click your audio device and update drivers
    -select search automatically & follow instructions

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    PinkSocks: You’re right.We all know Nurse Russell is a bad idea.Tippett said himself he has looked at some analytics with 97 & 29 from last season, which means he has certainly also looked at 25 & 4.

    Klef is going to be the guy that carries Bear or Persson and solidify a top 4 pairing.Nurse and Benning, theoretically, should be the other top 4 minute pairing.That still leaves Russell on the right side with either Manning or Lagesson.Either one is fine as long as it’s 3rd pairing 5v5 minutes.

    Interested to know, why, if Klefbom is our best defensemen, and he can carry a rookie like Bear, Why can he not play 1LD with a veteran like Russell. Where Russell only plays D and Klefbom does most or all of the transition work.

    STEP UP KLEFBOM!!

    Klefbom Russell
    Nurse Bear
    Lagesson Benning

  25. PinkSocks says:

    Does Currie or Safin or Hebig move the needle enough for Lou to give Ho-Sang his wish?

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    PinkSocks,

    – Big chance for Benning IMO. I bet they do this:

    Nurse-Benning
    Klef-Bear
    Russell-Perrsson

    – I think this is the least amount of “reach” in terms of slotting our D

    – they have to put Benning higher don’t they? He’s just not the 3rd RHD on our D corps

  27. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OK. Slow news day?

    Lets get the clicks jump started here.

    So here we are.

    Lowly Kris Russell ~ who really isnt good enough to play 3rd pairing~ will be asked once again to put this defense unit on his back while ~useless~ Larsson convalesces.

    How about one of the darlings, like Handsome or Benning step up for change and carry this D while our anchor is out.

    But no. Its

    NurseRussell
    KlefbomBear
    XXXBenning

    Oh Yeah and ……. KASS is a Beauty!!!

    Kass is in a contract year and yes it is a thing. Mama Kass has figured it out and he’ll copycat Patty Maroon style to a nice 3 year contract from if not the Oilers another team.

  28. HugThePost says:

    I think the season rests on klef and Darnell to carry their partners and stabilize. Darnell is playing for his big contract so this is a huge opportunity for him

  29. texmex says:

    I just lost all faith in Holland….. on TSN1260 he gave credit to Chiarelli!!

    Albeit, he gave him credit for drafting of the young D in Bakersfield.

  30. Wilde says:

    PinkSocks,

    Did this work for you?

    Andy Dufresne: Given what we’ve seen so far, and our injury situtation, this line looks like a pretty good option for the bottom six / energy line on the NHL roster right now.

    Will never happen under Holland though. Right?

    I think that Benson – Marody – Speed should be the third line (by TOI, fourth by comp), but yeah apparently we’re doing three checking lines

  31. Profit says:

    Reja,

    I agree with you there. Kassian seems to be on point when it comes to contract years. I think him just getting older also helps – seems to have a better and more consistent outlook on everything.

  32. Reja says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Jethro Tull,

    Reverse Eberle’d?

    Smith was quality in the playoffs this past season, poor regular season

    Smith had a rough first half changed up his equipment and responded with a good second half and lights out playoff.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    HugThePost:
    I think the season rests on klef and Darnell to carry their partners and stabilize.Darnell is playing for his big contract so this is a huge opportunity for him

    – Benning too… Great opportunity for him as well

  34. Reja says:

    Profit:
    Reja,

    I agree with you there. Kassian seems to be on point when it comes to contract years. I think him just getting older also helps – seems to have a better and more consistent outlook on everything.

    The light bulb went on. The subtle push on Edler was the only reason Leon scored and the tying goal was a snipe from someone with confidence.

  35. Coiler says:

    Larsson’s injury is a punch to the gut, for sure. This is where Tippett and co. need to work some magic.

  36. npanciroli says:

    2013-2015 Jurco with Sheahan

    57.59% CF
    58.44% FF
    58.14% GF
    .999 PDO
    93 games played 470 TOI 65% O zone faceoffs

    Thought this was neat although awhile ago.

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    In honor of OP, Riley Sheahan won’t make a material difference on that Arcibald/Khaira line…they may get a lot worser imo.

    They did extremely well together in preseason, I think Holland will give them a shot as soon as Sheahan is healthy.

  38. jp says:

    npanciroli:
    2013-2015 Jurco with Sheahan

    57.59% CF
    58.44% FF
    58.14% GF
    .999 PDO
    93 games played 470 TOI 65% O zone faceoffs

    Thought this was neat although awhile ago.

    ArmchairGM pointed out a while back that Jurco-Sheahan did most of this damage while together with Tomas Tatar. He was the driver and Jurco-Sheahan were thoroughly unimpressive without Tatar. Unfortunately.

    Plus, we need Jurco for the 1st line 🙂

  39. McSorley33 says:

    Looking forward to Saturday.

    That LA Kings forward top 6 group is ancient by today’s standards:

    Their top 6 forwards features:

    Kopitar – 32 years old
    Brown – turns 35 next month
    Kovalchuk – 36 years old
    Jeff Carter – 34 years old

    In case the above scares you the LA bottom 6 features a

    Blake Lizotte
    Austin Wagner
    Mike Amadio

    These two teams may be evenly matched when it comes to their bottom 6 …

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    npanciroli:
    2013-2015 Jurco with Sheahan

    57.59% CF
    58.44% FF
    58.14% GF
    .999 PDO
    93 games played 470 TOI 65% O zone faceoffs

    Thought this was neat although awhile ago.

    Pretty sure Tatar was the driver on that line. Check out their WOWY’s on NST’s Line Tool.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    Tippett should stay committed to

    1) The fastest line-up possible
    2) A line-up where Leon and Connor lead their own lines
    3) Defensive structure that gets the puck out of our zone quickly

  42. Wilde says:

    jp: ArmchairGM pointed out a while back that Jurco-Sheahan did most of this damage while together with Tomas Tatar. He was the driver and Jurco-Sheahan were thoroughly unimpressive without Tatar. Unfortunately.

    Plus, we need Jurco for the 1st line

    It’s almost like if you can hide an offensive weapon down-lineup and put them with complementary players you can outscore soft minutes much harder than with a typical bottom six unit =]]]]]]]]]]]]

  43. Reja says:

    Company leader calling OP.
    Come on OP.
    Company leader calling OP.
    Company leader to OP.
    Talk to me OP.

  44. npanciroli says:

    jp,

    Ahh thanks couldn’t figure out who the third was.

    Jurco and Sheahan without Tatar
    52.35‰ CF
    53.81% FF
    40.00% GF
    .935 PDO
    93 games played 154TOI 57% O zone faceoffs

    XGF is 45 too

  45. who says:

    Luke Schenn.
    Would be a decent bet to replace some of Larssons tough minutes on the cheap. Only negative I can see is he adds a contract.
    The big problem we have in replacing Larsson is that all of our other right shot dmen are puck moving, offensive types. None of them have a reputation for penalty killing or dzone defending.
    Right now, Benning is the best option. I would prefer Schenn.

  46. npanciroli says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Thanks! Didn’t know how to figure out the third person on that line.

  47. Reja says:

    Any word on why Jurco was out and when he’ll return?

  48. jp says:

    Wilde: It’s almost like if you can hide an offensive weapon down-lineup and put them with complementary players you can outscore soft minutes much harder than with a typical bottom six unit =]]]]]]]]]]]]

    Almost 🙂

  49. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Yet you can’t even give Manning away.
    Ricki the Binary Bear at it again
    Ricki D are out of the league, fayne etc
    How many Ricki forwards will get the axe this year.Granlund looks like he’s heading up the gallows pole.Gagner is there.And we are desperate for forwards
    Once you realize that your analysis is F
    EV goals For >10 =1. EV GF < 10 = 0
    Ricki Analysis for D
    EV GA per 60 top 60=1. Beyond top 60 = 0
    You realize why you are The Binary Bear

    You do realize:

    I have stated that GA is dmen to their side.
    And
    Save% from goalie relative to baseline established.

    I list 2 evga/60

    When he was #2 evga/60
    Cause he was in a 2D-1G system and elite to his side.
    Simple look at video shows 2 dmen defending.

    Holy fuck Manning was #1
    Same video evidence.

    Then I show manning paired with a top HD dman to his side generates elite evga/60
    Video evidence 2D defending.

    Talk of video evidence and structure that dictates absence of hybrid players called rovers.
    See Larssons numbers climb.

    All simple video review.
    Showing failure to side.

    I even suggested a little self training by watching def break down over last 2 years.
    In step by step sequence.
    It is enlightening.

    All multivariable break down of def structure.
    That a simple evga/60 number can show.

    I am sorry you do not have the ability to organize simple multivariable theory.
    Or
    To lazy to follow the instructions to enlightenment.

    It is as simple as going to Nat stat trick.
    1. Select individual
    -Filter by
    year
    Even strength
    Rates
    Skater
    492 ev min( top12 fwd( ( top 7 d) ( approx 589)
    The look at
    -evg/60
    – eva/60
    -Evp/60
    Right away you will say
    “Almost every dman sucks offensively.”
    “The top 9 fwds need to have the puck.”

    2. Make a list of top 60 dmen.
    With thier skater ranks.

    3. Select on ice
    – filter by
    Year
    Even strength
    Rates
    Defencemen
    657 min ( top 6 d) (approx 186)
    -Look at evga/60
    Remember a simple set of fwd, d, skater filter gf and ga/60 establishes evga/60 median
    Approx 2.64 evga/60 last 2 season.
    -Look at evga/60 rank of top Off dmen.
    -Make note of the dmen with evga/60 below 2.64/60

    – Look at attacking structure of the
    -low evga/60 dmen
    – High evga/60 dmen.
    4th/5th attacking option vs Rover HD abandonment

    I have done this for more than a decade.
    Constantly post these numbers.

    It is simple pattern recognition thru video and data.

    Lead farmer it is common sense.
    A single number shows us.
    Cause you should have the mental smarts to take the structure Video to see we’re the failure is.
    It has to be video.
    Not (“false eye affect”) memory.
    Plus it lets you track baseline ( Belichek and me) play.

    I expect everyone to think at this grade 5 pattern recognition level.

    Lead you seem to think everything in binary.

    Sorry but I do not have a blog to show the video break down of the repeat structures.

    One educational Dman is Giordano.
    His game has become a 4/5th attacking dman with a lot less HD area abandonment.
    But he has proven you can still be a bottom open HD sh dman to his side.
    20 worst last 5 years.
    But as a Dpair we see better evga/60 from him.

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja:
    Any word on Riley? If he’s out longer than expected I can see a team that’s starts 1-5 and can’t score biting on a Jesse Plustrade for a paid well underperforming 3-C. Holland did clear a few bucks yesterday my spider senses tell me a Jesse trade is in the works.

    I hope you’re wrong. He hasn’t scored 17 goals yet.

  51. Harpers Hair says:

    who:
    Luke Schenn.
    Would be a decent bet to replace some of Larssons tough minutes on the cheap. Only negative I can see is he adds a contract.
    The big problem we have in replacing Larsson is that all of our other right shot dmen are puck moving, offensive types. None of them have a reputation for penalty killing or dzone defending.
    Right now, Benning is the best option. I would prefer Schenn.

    Schenn was very good in a number of games with Vancouver at the end of last season.
    Was surprised they didn’t re-sign him.

  52. jp says:

    Wilde:
    Deployment wise, based on last year, I would not be surprised to see this:

    Benson – Marody – Currie

    [ Steadily deployed for months last year, all the way into the spring until Marody was boarded and sidelined in the playoffs ]

    Gambardella – Malone – Yamamoto

    [ The two vets were never split to my viewing even when Russell was in Edmonton – they formed the most common and trusted line by deployment and games played together of anything put together last year and I would guess it’s put back together after Russell comes back down. Yamamoto there because he’s a killer retriever which fits the identity of the line as a high-skill chip&chasing one and will also certainly be in the top-six in general as he’s in the mix to be the best forward and player on the team imo ]

    Maksimov – McLeod – Safin

    [ This will probably be the 4th line by competition but the 3rd by TOI; it’s probably the most weighted towards my personal hopes vs. realistic projection because of the lack of a veteran but I think it’s underestimated just how bad most AHL bottom sixes are and the strength of this team’s top six earns a lot of soft opportunity for a line like this, plus McLeod is fairly responsible in the DZ. Next guess is Hebig at RW ]

    Starrett – Esposito – Stukel

    [ Letestu to McLellan is as Espo is to Woodcroft, Vesey got play he didn’t ‘earn’ – even in the playoffs – and I think Starrett’s going to follow that, also wouldn’t be surprised to see Peluso come in. Pure checking unit where Espo will run up the lineup for faceoffs occasionally but the opposite never happens. As with NHL 4th lines this one is both unpredictable and of little consequence in terms of personnel so it’s pretty uninteresting to project it ]

    Defense is pretty up in the air, I’d know if they streamed the preseason games. That third pairing of Samorukov – Desharnais is a good bet imo.

    Thing is, Lowe – Jones /never/ occurred by start in my sample and was never shifted to mid-game unless there was some broken changing. Never. Yet it makes the most sense here. If Bear was down this would be easy, it’d go like this:

    Lowe – Bear (Very common pair last year – though I think Lowe dragged it)
    Jones – Bouchard (Fucking disgusting.)
    Samorukov – Desharnais (Very Tall)

    The only question mark is/would be Bouchard in the top-four, but I’ve been higher on Bouch’s Bakersfield stint than I’ve seen anywhere written – though I don’t know how many who wrote about it watched/re-watched it with focus. That, and Jones is unstoppable at this level and could absolutely help along a rookie despite being a prospect himself in my opinion.

    I’m not particularly fond of Lowe playing top-pairing in this way if it does come to it, and hope the other pairings succeed in ways that balance it out from being a 45% v. elites pairing or whatever – not that the forward corps couldn’t rebalance things.

    Final note: in my tracking, when Kulevich played last year, it was alongside Lowe. So there’s precedent for that pairing. It wasn’t great, but part of the sample was against the Gulls in the playoffs after Bear went down and that short time vs that team without Marody or Bear and with a clearly concussed Gambardella was some of the toughest hours the team played all year.

    Thanks for the synopsis, and for your work following the Condors generally.

    Pouzar posted this yesterday from Woodcroft:

    ———————————————————————–
    Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/JasonGregor
    “I thought moving Currie from centre to RW in the second half last year and playing him with Benson and Marody really got us going. So we will start with them.” Woodcroft. Other lines.. Gambardella-Malone-Yamamoto Gagner-McLeod-Maksimov
    ———————————————————————–

    So you nailed the top 2 lines. Gagner makes sense on the 3rd over Safin for various reasons (I’d have thought also Hebig over Safin, but they’re your lines obviously). It’s so incredible the depth the Condors have this year. Just drunk with high end AHL players.

    Even outside these top 3 lines they have Esposito, Hebig, Safin, Stukel, Iacobellis, Starrett, Vessey, Peluso. And they might get Russell or someone else back from the Oilers pending injuries.

    On D, what about Lagesson? They have a very projectable top 4 when you include him (maybe Lagesson-Jones, Lowe-Bouchard, Samorukov-Kulevich/Desharnais?).

    Really looking to see how Bouchard and the other new pros adjust.

    And again, thanks for the updates and analysis!

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Andy Dufresne,

    PinkSocks,

    – Big chance for Benning IMO.I bet they do this:

    Nurse-Benning
    Klef-Bear
    Russell-Perrsson

    – I think this is the least amount of “reach” in terms of slotting our D

    – they have to put Benning higher don’t they? He’s just not the 3rd RHD on our D corps

    Nurse – Benning has been much more successful than Nurse – Russell historically.

  54. Pouzar says:

    elgruntus:
    AHL TV is offering a Free opening weekend. Just sign up with an email address and watch the Condors..for free

    Sweet thx!

  55. vinotintazo says:

    When I thought the dcorpse could not be more dead we lose Larsson.

    Klef-Bear
    Nurse-Benning
    Russell-Persson

  56. Pouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    2013-2015 Jurco with Sheahan

    57.59% CF
    58.44% FF
    58.14% GF
    .999 PDO
    93 games played 470 TOI 65% O zone faceoffs

    Thought this was neat although awhile ago.

    There is compelling evidence that Tatar may have been the stir mixer guy on that line (Credit to Armchair? I believe)

    EDIT: What others have said.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: moving Currie from centre to RW in the second half last year and playing him with Benson and Marody really got us going. So we will start with them.” Woodcroft. Other lines.. Gambardella-Malone-Yamamoto Gagner-McLeod-Maksimov

    So Bakersfield has three 1st lines? Embarrassing.

  58. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Andy Dufresne,

    PinkSocks,

    – Big chance for Benning IMO.I bet they do this:

    Nurse-Benning
    Klef-Bear
    Russell-Perrsson

    – I think this is the least amount of “reach” in terms of slotting our D

    – they have to put Benning higher don’t they? He’s just not the 3rd RHD on our D corps

    It definitely will be interesting to see what Tippett tries.

    Benning was given zero looks in TC for the open 2RD spot, so I’m not so sure we see him moved up now.

    His numbers are sparkling, but we’re on 3 coaches now who don’t seem to see the upside. I think Benning being first up is the right move, but I’m becoming resigned to the likelihood that hockey men don’t agree.

    All that said, Tippett’s verbal didn’t leave much hope of McDavid and Leon being split up and that case to fruition at least temporarily.

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    jp,

    Safin is in ECHL.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: On D, what about Lagesson? They have a very projectable top 4 when you include him (maybe Lagesson-Jones, Lowe-Bouchard, Samorukov-Kulevich/Desharnais?

    This team is unbelievably stacked. Too bad they play so late, I won’t be able to watch them.

  61. jp says:

    vinotintazo:
    When I thought the dcorpse could not be more dead we lose Larsson.

    Klef-Bear
    Nurse-Benning
    Russell-Persson

    And he’s out for a while. Lots of time for another injury to make the corpse more more dead. Question is can the youngsters resurrect it.

  62. Wilde says:

    jp,

    this is like the third time I’ve forgotten about gagner

  63. Pouzar says:

    One poster mentioned after the game he thought the breakouts were good. I thought they were really bad. Mostly a replay of last year’s “upTheBoards-itis”. I thought they abandoned the middle ice breakout they seemed to have successfully executed a few times this preseason. Early days…….

  64. rickithebear says:

    jp: ArmchairGM pointed out a while back that Jurco-Sheahan did most of this damage while together with Tomas Tatar. He was the driver and Jurco-Sheahan were thoroughly unimpressive without Tatar. Unfortunately.

    Plus, we need Jurco for the 1st line

    The first thing he did was look at repetative video to see
    who drove Entry
    and
    HD penetration leading to structure break down.
    To see if video evidence matched the open HD sh density rates?

    Probably not.

    Video review of play shows.

    -CF/60 and CA/60 is reflective of forward performance.
    -Open HD sh density rates is reflective of the battle between Off attacker penetration and HD area def.
    -GA is reflective of goalie +ve/-ve save% performance relative to baseline xSave% established by open Shot density to each dman side.

    Why do you allways want to Include dman and goalie affect ( ga/per corsi) in the measure of forwards.
    Or
    Forward even offence when dmen are 4 th line to 2 Nd line AHL even offence (GF/ corsi) in the measure of dmen who’s primary affect is Open density/ corsi (xSave%/ corsi)

    I told Emanuel’s Perry on Hockey future boards he did not understand the purpose of Homeplate.
    It was not xGF.
    He was bastardizing the proper use of my work.
    It was the xSave%/corsi to identify baseline (Belichek and me) performance of dmen to their side.

    Another one I posted yrs ago on HF boards.
    Not here but referenced on this site.

    When I see xGF.
    It says you have zero understanding of homeplate purpose
    Just like Emanuel’s Perry.

    1. Forwards Cf to CA
    2. Dmen with ( forward HD coverage)
    A. Open shot = Corsi – (blocks + misses + closed shots). A per corsi performance
    B. Shot density = cumulative success % ( based on open shot success x,y map) to each side. Per C.
    3. Dman xSave% based on sum of 2 shots density dman sides.
    4. Goalie +ve/-ve save% relative to Dpair xSave%.

    From day 1.
    This is correct use of my 45+ yr observation of HD area ( Rickisbox originally per Lowetide poster)( now homeplate per MSM)

    Who is to say otherwise.
    It is my theory!

  65. rickithebear says:

    Vintanzo:
    Evga/60 median 2.64/60
    Last yr
    Nurse – Russell 1090 ev min 2.28 evga/60

    Both have played 1st comp
    Russel can play left or right and get good evga/60 Numbers.

  66. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM: Nurse – Benning has been much more successful than Nurse – Russell historically.

    18/19
    Nurse – Benning 1090 ev min 2.28 evga/60
    2.64 – 2.28 = .36 goal/60

    😇

  67. DLite says:

    imho the best combo of d-men in Larsson’s absence is:

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning/Manning

    For the love of god leave Russell on his natural side and on the third pairing – pretty please.

  68. dustrock says:

    For anyone worried, OP has been active on twitter.

    Either he was banned here or self-banned himself.

  69. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Pouzar,

    I don’t think they abandoned it, the team is just not talented enough to execute consistently against real competition. Hacking the puck out of the zone is not coached, it is a panic move.

  70. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Pouzar,

    I agree though, the breakouts were largely brutal.

  71. pts2pndr says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interested to know, why, if Klefbom is our best defensemen, and he can carry a rookie like Bear, Why can he not play 1LD with a veteran like Russell. Where Russell only plays D and Klefbom does most or all of the transition work.

    STEP UP KLEFBOM!!

    KlefbomRussell
    NurseBear
    Lagesson Benning

    So what you are saying is it would be better to have two second pairings rather than a aimperfect Defensive Pairing of Nurse Russel and a bonafide second pairing offensive duo of Klefbom Bear and a tread water third pairing. Not saying your plan wouldn’t work but I think keeping at least one pairing intact at least gives a modicum of continuity. I would not be against trying Benning in the short term with Nurse and use Persson with Lagesson on a third pairing. This would allow us three young D getting the requisite experience moving forward. I would like to see a puck moving D on all three pairings. We wait and see. The injury to Larsson could force management to try some combinations that they may not have been willing to do. Time will tell, could be a tire fire,but then it could be the start to something special.

  72. rickithebear says:

    Puljujarvi:
    14/15 Karpat (16) 21gm 4G; 64 SH; 3.05 sh/ gm; 6.25%
    15/16 Karpat (17) 50gm 13G; 175sh 3.50 sh/ gm; 7.43%
    16/17 EDM (18) 28gm 1G; 41 SH; 1.46 sh/gm; 2.44 sv%
    17/18 EDM (19) 65gm 12g; 136 sh; 2.09 sh/gm; 8.82 sh%
    18/19 EDM (20) 46gm 4g; 53sh; 1.15 sh/gm; 7.55 sh%
    19/20 Karpat (21) 8gm 2G; 57 sh; 7.13 sh/gm; 3.51 sh%

    The trend I worried about draft continues this yr in Karpat.

    Th kid needs to work on open shot targeting!

  73. Oilman99 says:

    dustrock:
    For anyone worried, OP has been active on twitter.

    Either he was banned here or self-banned himself.

    Nice to see it back to a Lowetide column with no OP overload very day.

  74. Oilman99 says:

    rickithebear:
    Puljujarvi:
    14/15 Karpat (16) 21gm 4G; 64 SH; 3.05 sh/ gm; 6.25%
    15/16 Karpat (17) 50gm 13G; 175sh 3.50 sh/ gm; 7.43%
    16/17 EDM (18) 28gm 1G; 41 SH; 1.46 sh/gm; 2.44 sv%
    17/18 EDM (19) 65gm 12g; 136 sh; 2.09 sh/gm; 8.82 sh%
    18/19 EDM (20) 46gm 4g; 53sh; 1.15 sh/gm; 7.55 sh%
    19/20 Karpat (21) 8gm 2G; 57 sh; 7.13 sh/gm; 3.51 sh%

    The trend I worried about draft continues this yr in Karpat.

    Th kid needs to work on open shot targeting!

    This is another example of how much better Rantanen made his wingers look by dominating the play.

  75. Side says:

    Oilman99: Nice to see it back to a Lowetide column with no OP overload very day.

    I disagree. More hockey talk the better.

  76. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr: So what you are saying is it would be better to have two second pairings rather than a aimperfect Defensive Pairing of Nurse Russel and a bonafide second pairing offensive duo of Klefbom Bear and a tread water third pairing. Not saying your plan wouldn’t work but I think keeping at least one pairing intact at least gives a modicum of continuity. I would not be against trying Benning in the short term with Nurse and use Persson with Lagesson on a third pairing. This would allow us three young D getting the requisite experience moving forward. I would like to see a puck moving D on all three pairings. We wait and see. The injury to Larsson could force management to try some combinations that they may not have been willing to do. Time will tell, could be a tire fire,but then it could be the start to something special.

    I agree with you,

    But the thing that Really intrigues me is,Why is it that Klefbom, who is statistically our best all round Dman, is not being counted on to step up and be the anchor on the top pair in Larssons abscence?

    I like Klefbom. But how is it that he is not the natural choice for top pair over either Nurse of Russell.

    Something doesnt add up. Klefbom should be the absolute default first man up to be the anchor on the top pair in the abscence of Larsson. But he’s not. Why not?

    He should be asked to play top pair at minimum 25 minutes a night and let him choose his own right side partner….whoever he’s most comfortable with. NO?

  77. vinotintazo says:

    rickithebear:
    Puljujarvi:

    The trend I worried about draft continues this yr in Karpat.

    Th kid needs to work on open shot targeting!

    This is the problem with Jesse, just not enough finish there.

  78. Reja says:

    vinotintazo: This is the problem with Jesse, just not enough finish there.

    If Jesse played with a little bit of anger as well as competitiveness and went to the net instead of being a pussy on the perimeter lookout. Jesse could be a force and making big dough like his buddies but he won’t venture in the tough areas.

  79. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Oilman99: Nice to see it back to a Lowetide column with no OP overload very day.

    Side: I disagree. More hockey talk the better.

    I also disagree, there are some posts I find tiresome by various posters. So I simply do not read them. I think OP adds a lot of value here and hope he comes back.

  80. meanashell11 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I agree with you,

    But the thing that Really intrigues me is,Why is it that Klefbom, who is statistically our best all round Dman, is not being counted on to step up and be the anchor on the top pair in Larssons abscence?

    I like Klefbom. But how is it that he is not the natural choice for top pair over either Nurse of Russell.

    Something doesnt add up. Klefbom should be the absolute defaultfirst man up to be the anchor on the top pair in the abscence of Larsson. But he’s not. Why not?

    He should be asked to play top pair at minimum 25 minutes a night and let him choose his own right side partner….whoever he’s most comfortable with.NO?

    I think they were trying to get consistent and have him break in Pearsson so hesitant to disrupt two lines when someone injured. If Pearsson is good to go I think keep him with Klef and put Benning or Bear with Nurse.

  81. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: If Jesse played with a little bit of anger as well ascompetitiveness and went to the net instead of being a pussy on the perimeter lookout. Jesse could be a force and making big dough like his buddies but he won’t venture in the tough areas.

    I said a while back, that if I were the coach I would challenge JP to make three big hits in each game. Not dirty hits, but the kind that seperate the opponent from the puck.

    But alas, JP is a Bandi player.

    And has NEVER really had a history as a goal scorer.

    I was thrilled when we picked him, So the fall is even harder as a result.

    And

    I miss Ryan Strome….and so did JP. Big Mistake.

  82. Cassandra says:

    I wonder what Ricki thinks of this play. Two things that don’t help teams win (D points and assists)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6qY3RA5Kcc

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    meanashell11: I think they were trying to get consistent and have him break in Pearsson so hesitant to disrupt two lines when someone injured. If Pearsson is good to go I think keep him with Klef and put Benning or Bear with Nurse.

    The Coach agrees with you. Kind of.

    In practice today

    Nurse Russell
    Klefbom Persson
    Benning Bear

  84. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Nurse – Benning has been much more successful than Nurse – Russell historically.

    I’m for almost anything that doesn’t have Russel playing on his off side.

  85. jp says:

    rickithebear: The first thing he did was look at repetative video to see
    who drove Entry
    and
    HD penetration leading to structure break down.
    To see if video evidence matched the open HD sh density rates?

    Probably not.

    Video review of play shows.

    -CF/60 and CA/60 is reflective of forward performance.
    -Open HD sh density rates is reflective of the battle between Off attacker penetration and HD area def.
    -GA is reflective of goalie +ve/-ve save% performance relative to baseline xSave% established by open Shot density to each dman side.

    Why do you allways want to Include dmanand goalie affect ( ga/per corsi) in the measure of forwards.
    Or
    Forward even offence when dmen are 4 th line to 2 Nd line AHL even offence (GF/ corsi) in the measure of dmen who’s primary affect is Open density/ corsi (xSave%/ corsi)

    I told Emanuel’s Perry on Hockey future boards he did not understand the purpose of Homeplate.
    It was not xGF.
    He was bastardizing the proper use of my work.
    It was the xSave%/corsi to identify baseline (Belichek and me) performance of dmen to their side.

    Another one I posted yrs ago on HF boards.
    Not here but referenced on this site.

    When I see xGF.
    It says you have zero understanding of homeplate purpose
    Just like Emanuel’s Perry.

    1. Forwards Cf to CA
    2. Dmenwith ( forward HD coverage)
    A. Open shot = Corsi – (blocks + misses + closed shots). A per corsi performance
    B. Shot density = cumulative success % ( based on open shot success x,y map) to each side. Per C.
    3. Dman xSave% based on sum of 2 shots density dman sides.
    4. Goalie +ve/-ve save% relative to Dpair xSave%.

    From day 1.
    This is correct use of my 45+ yr observation of HD area( Rickisbox originally per Lowetide poster)( now homeplate per MSM)

    Who is to say otherwise.
    It is my theory!

    Are you trying to say Tatar wasn’t the driver on that line?

  86. elgruntus says:

    Leroy Draisdale: I also disagree, there are some posts I find tiresome by various posters. So I simply do not read them. I think OP adds a lot of value here and hope he comes back.

    Just as long as he doesn’t come back as “Original Elgruntus”, I’m in total agreement

  87. jp says:

    Oilman99: This is another example of how much better Rantanen made his wingers look by dominating the play.

    The only time Rantanen and Puljujarvi ever played together was for Team Finland, and it doesn’t appear they played on the same line even then. They are both RW after all.

  88. rickithebear says:

    16/17 to 18/19 avg median 2.56 evga/60/ current 2.64
    Current roster or AHL prospects
    Russel 218gm 3886:52; 2.36 evga/60
    Benning 205gm 3036:31; 2.49 evga/60
    Larsson 224gm 4276:38; 2.64 evga/60
    —————————————————-
    Nurse 208gm 3935:31; 2.70 evga/60
    Manning 169gm 2626:38; 2.79 evga/60;
    Klefbom 209gm 3857:36; 2.92 evga/60
    Bear 18gm 298:58; 3.61 evga/60
    Bouchard 7 gm 75:46; 3.96 evga/60
    Jones 17gm 305:49; 4.12 evga/60

    Manning
    14/15 to 15/16 #1 1.50 evga/60
    16/17 to 17/18 #90 2.49 evga/60
    18/19 worst of top 7 d 505:28 4.15 evga/60;
    w Benning 91:57; 1.31
    w/o Benning 413:31; 4.79 evga/60

    I am really comfortable with manning paired with HD area responsible d partner.

    16/17 to 18/19
    Klefbom w/
    Larsson 2343:48 2.53 evga/60
    Benning 729:45 2.55 evga/60
    Russell 354:19 3.05 evga/60
    Bear 78:19 4.60 evga/60

    Do we run
    Manning – Benning ( 3rd comp)
    2.64 – 1.31 = + 1.33 g/60
    Klefbom – Benning ( 2 Nd comp)
    2.64 – 2.55 = + .09 g/60

    If manning – Benning can be dominate that means
    1.33 – .09 = 1.24
    2.64 + 1.24 = 3.88 evga/60
    Then adjust by TOI % to look for break even.
    A Klefbom pair can have a high level of suck.

    16/17 to 18/19
    Shows are def anchors are
    Russell ( 2Nd)
    Benning (3rd)
    Larsson (1st)

    HD area penetration nscreen video shows that.

  89. rickithebear says:

    jp: Are you trying to say Tatar wasn’t the driver on that line?

    No I was asking if you looked at video.

    Gerard Gallant said he was a guy that generated offence with speed and skill.
    In pre season I saw a forward who penetrated to
    shoot (with Eberle tight space open elevated targeting)
    but
    passed to forwards in space.

    That is a really really good thing.
    But I think it is wasted on a Mcdavid line.

  90. rickithebear says:

    JP:

    When some one says player did x in a game.
    I think
    The game is fast
    Likely high % “ false eye”

    If someone says
    I have looked at x of the x goals he was involved in over x games.
    He drives open shot trargets and distributes to unchallenged space.

    That does not tell us what he is doing in his end or rest of time
    But hints at weather he is a driver.

  91. HT Joe says:

    I miss many of the all-time greats… Woodguy, GMoney, Gentleman Backpacker, Steve Smith, Hbomb… there are more of you obviously.

    The only two constants are LT (thanks), and the fact that the high quality discussions here keep bringing me back. Hopefully OP comes back but if not, time for some new people (who were previously happy to simply lurk) to have something to say.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99: Nice to see it back to a Lowetide column with no OP overload very day.

    Agreed. I don’t dislike OP but it got a little much sometimes, especially when he was copy/pasting comments forward from yesterday’s thread that we’d all read already.

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne: The Coach agrees with you. Kind of.

    In practice today

    Nurse Russell
    KlefbomPersson
    Benning Bear

    – Benning be like: “WTF, I pop in a few assists, go + 3 game 1, you still give me the least minutes, I’m in contract year, and now you putting me on my off-side with a AHL rookie on 3rd pair.

  94. rickithebear says:

    Casandra:
    The link does not work for me.

    But remember analytics is a season driven analysis in reg season.
    Then you look at final 4 roster structure for playoffs.

    Do not be a “false eye fool” and point to one play.

    Pick a player and GF and GA driver need lots of video.
    To identify baseline play ( Belichek and me)

  95. dmjkrash says:

    I would go Klefbom/Benning, Nurse/Bear, Russell/ Persson

  96. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne: The Coach agrees with you. Kind of.

    In practice today

    Nurse Russell
    KlefbomPersson
    Benning Bear

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Benning be like: “WTF, I pop in a few assists, go + 3 game 1, you still give me the least minutes, I’m in contract year, and now you putting me on my off-side with a AHL rookie on 3rd pair.

    1) There’s still another day of practice before game day. I’d guess there’s a good chance Tippett starts on Saturday with lefty/righty (Nurse-Bear/Russell-Benning) and uses Nurse-Russell as he did Leon-Connor last game.
    2) Fully agree that Benning is not valued. He’ll be traded once the team is healthy and/or some younger guys prove themselves a bit more.

  97. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair: Schenn was very good in a number of games with Vancouver at the end of last season.
    Was surprised they didn’t re-sign him.

    ?

  98. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne: I agree with you,

    But the thing that Really intrigues me is,Why is it that Klefbom, who is statistically our best all round Dman, is not being counted on to step up and be the anchor on the top pair in Larssons abscence?

    I like Klefbom. But how is it that he is not the natural choice for top pair over either Nurse of Russell.

    Something doesnt add up. Klefbom should be the absolute defaultfirst man up to be the anchor on the top pair in the abscence of Larsson. But he’s not. Why not?

    He should be asked to play top pair at minimum 25 minutes a night and let him choose his own right side partner….whoever he’s most comfortable with.NO?

    Part of the problem, I think, is that Klefbom isn’t statistically our best defenseman.

    Over the past 2 seasons he’s lead the Oilers regular defenders in CF% and SF% (both around 51%), but coupled that with a group worst GF% (42%).

    You can make an argument, but it’s not at all clear cut that he’s the best of the group.

    I think Tippett sees him (maybe rightfully) as better suited to slightly easier minutes in a more offensive role.

    I imagine he’ll still play 25 minutes in Larsson’s absence (he played 24:21 on opening night with Larsson in the lineup).

  99. Reja says:

    HT Joe:
    I miss many of the all-time greats… Woodguy, GMoney, Gentleman Backpacker, Steve Smith, Hbomb… there are more of you obviously.

    The only two constants are LT (thanks), and the fact that the high quality discussions here keep bringing me back. Hopefully OP comes back but if not, time for some new people (who were previously happy to simply lurk) to have something to say.

    Quit being so stubborn OP come back your a diehard Oiler fan. I need my updates OP. Who the hell is starting in the most important position Saturday? I have a Cowtown buddy who wants to go on the Oiler LA game as well as the Van Cal game

  100. jp says:

    Wilde: ?

    Elite D show themselves…

    Never mind.

  101. RonnieB says:

    Wilde: Maksimov – McLeod – Safin
    [ This will probably be the 4th line by competition but the 3rd by TOI; it’s probably the most weighted towards my personal hopes vs. realistic projection because of the lack of a veteran but I think it’s underestimated just how bad most AHL bottom sixes are and the strength of this team’s top six earns a lot of soft opportunity for a line like this, plus McLeod is fairly responsible in the DZ. Next guess is Hebig at RW ]

    Safin is in Wichita so Hebig it is. Much better option here anyway.

  102. jp says:

    rickithebear: No I was asking if you looked at video.

    Gerard Gallant said he was a guy that generated offence with speed and skill.
    In pre season I saw a forward who penetrated to
    shoot (with Eberle tight space open elevated targeting)
    but passed to forwards in space.

    That is a really really good thing.
    But I think it is wasted on a Mcdavid line.

    rickithebear:
    JP:

    When some one says player did x in a game.
    I think
    The game is fast
    Likely high % “ false eye”

    If someone says
    I have looked at x of the x goals he was involved in over x games.
    He drives open shot trargets and distributes to unchallenged space.

    That does not tell us what he is doing in his end or rest of time
    But hints at weather he is a driver.

    No Ricki. I did not dig up video from 2013 to look at HD penetration by Jurco-Sheahan with and without Tatar.

    I looked at on ice results for those players with and without Tatar. The 3 together had exceptional results. Jurco-Sheahan without Tatar had throughly average results.

    Actual results hint at who’s a driver too. You use WOWYs all the time.

    How’s this:
    Jurco-Sheahan-Tatar
    SF/60 36.0
    SA/60 21.9

    GF/60 3.08
    GA/60 1.37

    Jurco-Sheahan-no Tatar
    SF/60 30.8
    SA/60 29.3

    GF/60 3.02
    GA/60 4.22

    Feel free to examine the game tape if you want.

  103. OilFire says:

    Oilman99: Nice to see it back to a Lowetide column with no OP overload very day.

    ArmchairGM: Agreed. I don’t dislike OP but it got a little much sometimes, especially when he was copy/pasting comments forward from yesterday’s thread that we’d all read already.

    I was on the board on OP’s last few days and my guess it was more the sniping at OP by various posters with comments like this that caused his exodus, with the RTB interaction just being the straw in that particular camel’s back. Two or 3 people pretty steadily chirped at OP to post elsewhere and now he does…. so… you win, I guess.

    My hypothesis: LT jumping in to save RTB (understandably, not questioning his decision), while standing idly by during so many pot shots at OP caused his “I’m outta here.” There’s no other way for LT to play that, and there’s no way for it not to sting OP to catch arrows all day but get put in the penalty box for lobbing one back. So he moves on to elsewhere, and the community here moves on, everybody is happy again in a week.

  104. wolf8888 says:

    Leroy Draisdale,

    I also disagree. OP adds to the site. Cmon back boy!

  105. PinkSocks says:

    Wilde:
    PinkSocks,

    Did this work for you?

    It did, though it’s about a 50/50 shot

  106. Sierra says:

    Andy Dufresne: The Coach agrees with you. Kind of.

    In practice today

    Nurse Russell
    KlefbomPersson
    Benning Bear

    Two guys playing the wrong side. Hmmmm

  107. PinkSocks says:

    jp:
    No Ricki. I did not dig up video from 2013 to look at HD penetration by Jurco-Sheahan with and without Tatar.

    Well then it looks like you have your work cut out for you this afternoon.

  108. PinkSocks says:

    rickithebear:

    But remember analytics is a season driven analysis in reg season.
    Then you look at final 4 roster structure for playoffs.

    Are you saying that analytics should not be used during the course of a season to look at what works and what doesn’t work and that it is only viable at season’s end?

    rickithebear:
    Do not be a “false eye fool” and point to one play.

    One play doesn’t make the player, but when one player makes one play over and over again, it wins games. I.E. Tyson Barrie who I assume doesn’t look good in your analyses.

    rickithebear:
    Pick a player and GF and GA driver need lots of video.
    To identify baseline play ( Belichek and me)

    Belicheck also takes gambles on cast-offs from other organizations and brings out the best in them, regardless of their “baseline” play. IE. Daniel Sprong

  109. Pouzar says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Pouzar,

    I don’t think they abandoned it, the team is just not talented enough to execute consistently against real competition. Hacking the puck out of the zone is not coached, it is a panic move.

    I think you are right.

  110. PinkSocks says:

    97 and 29 in practice on the same line. So now lines 2 through 4 will bleed. Am I really that naïve/stupid/foolish to believe that chemistry may take longer than 1 period to establish?

    Draisaitl /Kassian /RNH was working. McDavid will figure it out. FFS leave them on separate lines so at least only 2 lines need to be hidden.

  111. Jethro Tull says:

    Sierra: Two guys playing the wrong side. Hmmmm

    But this time it’ll be different!

  112. Pouzar says:

    Sierra: Two guys playing the wrong side. Hmmmm

    Say one thing, do the exact opposite…same as it ever was.

  113. Pouzar says:

    PinkSocks: 97 and 29 in practice on the same line. So now lines 2 through 4 will bleed. Am I really that naïve/stupid/foolish to believe that chemistry may take longer than 1 period to establish?

    Say one thing, do the exact opposite…same as it ever was.

  114. LadiesloveSmid says:

    What did I do to deserve this team?

    What can I do for repentance?

  115. Pouzar says:

    Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/DNBsports

    Bear and Lagesson are up. Bouchard (or his contract, anyway) is down. Defence is shaping up for the Oilers.
    7 mins ago

  116. PinkSocks says:

    Pouzar: Say one thing, do the exact opposite…same as it ever was.

    And just when you think it would change it all gets stolen away and just like that, TMac 2.0 is behind the bench again.

  117. PinkSocks says:

    Pouzar:

    Lagesson

    OP!!!!!

  118. Lowetide says:

    Lagesson and Bear up means (imo) that Persson can’t and Manning won’t play.

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Benning

  119. geowal says:

    Bouchard down, Bear and Lagesson up

  120. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Lagesson and Bear up means (imo) that Persson can’t and Manning won’t play.

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Benning

    I think you got er

  121. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I agree with you,

    But the thing that Really intrigues me is,Why is it that Klefbom, who is statistically our best all round Dman, is not being counted on to step up and be the anchor on the top pair in Larssons abscence?

    I like Klefbom. But how is it that he is not the natural choice for top pair over either Nurse of Russell.

    Something doesnt add up. Klefbom should be the absolute defaultfirst man up to be the anchor on the top pair in the abscence of Larsson. But he’s not. Why not?

    He should be asked to play top pair at minimum 25 minutes a night and let him choose his own right side partner….whoever he’s most comfortable with.NO?

    For a decade, Pieterangelo is the number one shutdown D in St. Louis. Zero cups. A few months after Parayko replaces PIeterangelo as the number one shutdown D in St. Louis, they win the Stanley Cup, because Pieterangelo becomes an absolute beast in the softer minutes, and his offense returns. St. Louis waited far too long to dump Shattenkirk. Turns out the Shattenkirk for Johnson deal was a fail.

    Nurse is more suited to be the #1 shutdown D. Klefbom is suited to a more all around diversified role.

  122. Munny says:

    Larsson out, Bianca loses… wonder what the third kick in the nuts will be…

  123. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Benning be like: “WTF, I pop in a few assists, go + 3 game 1, you still give me the least minutes, I’m in contract year, and now you putting me on my off-side with a AHL rookie on 3rd pair.

    Benning is a good 3rd pairing D. Don’t Peter Principle him.

  124. McSorley33 says:

    Lowetide,

    Lagesson and Bear up means (imo) that Persson can’t and Manning won’t play.

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Benning
    ************************************************************************
    Also a tell on what the new coach thinks of Benning?

    Or I could be reading too much into too little….

  125. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Lowetide:
    Lagesson and Bear up means (imo) that Persson can’t and Manning won’t play.

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Benning

    Happy for Lagesson.

    When Persson is healthy I hope they sit Russell.

  126. digger50 says:

    jp: ArmchairGM pointed out a while back that Jurco-Sheahan did most of this damage while together with Tomas Tatar. He was the driver and Jurco-Sheahan were thoroughly unimpressive without Tatar. Unfortunately.

    Plus, we need Jurco for the 1st line

    Lets get Tatar?

  127. Reja says:

    OilFire:
    I was on the board on OP’s last few days and my guess it was more the sniping at OP by various posters with comments like this that caused his exodus, with the RTB interaction just being the straw in that particular camel’s back.Two or 3 people pretty steadily chirped at OP to post elsewhere and now he does…. so… you win, I guess.

    My hypothesis: LT jumping in to save RTB (understandably, not questioning his decision), while standing idly by during so many pot shots at OP caused his “I’m outta here.”There’s no other way for LT to play that, and there’s no way for it not to sting OP to catch arrows all day but get put in the penalty box for lobbing one back. So he moves on to elsewhere, and the community here moves on, everybody is happy again in a week.

    Kiss and make up we’re Oiler fans through thick are thin.

  128. OmJo says:

    digger50: Lets get Tatar?

    And the Tatar while we’re at it.

  129. Reja says:

    godot10: For a decade, Pieterangelo is the number one shutdown D in St. Louis.Zero cups.A few months after Parayko replaces PIeterangelo as the number one shutdown D in St. Louis, they win the Stanley Cup, because Pieterangelo becomes an absolute beast in the softer minutes, and his offense returns.St. Louis waited far too long to dump Shattenkirk.Turns out the Shattenkirk for Johnson deal was a fail.

    Nurse is more suited to be the #1 shutdown D.Klefbom is suited to a more all around diversified role.

    Hell yeah!

  130. rickithebear says:

    PinkSocks: Are you saying that analytics should not be used during the course of a season to look at what works and what doesn’t work and that it is only viable at season’s end?

    One play doesn’t make the player, but when one player makes one play over and over again, it wins games.I.E. Tyson Barrie who I assume doesn’t look good in your analyses.

    Belicheck also takes gambles on cast-offs from other organizations and brings out the best in them, regardless of their “baseline” play.IE. Daniel Sprong

    Have you look at NFL schematics.
    During the first year of SB nation Det lions blog – Pride of Detroit I study football.
    Then stoped cause I Identified and stated PFF would become basis for high standard of player measure.
    They are at a point we’re their analysis has to go to a deeper schematic level of measure.

    Patricia was hired. Once healthy I invested in schematic analysis of position players.
    What was base action required of each and who they went after.

    Nothing sweeter than giving up low draft picks for almost sure fire fits in base def structure.

    Other teams cast-offs are Belichek pro bowl level players.

    Only now it is
    Other teams cast offs are
    NWE, DET, TEN
    Players.

    I ask you to give evidence:
    16/17, 17/18, 18/19
    Barries Top 6 dman (approx 186)(approx 650 win)
    Evga/60 rank

    Barries: Skater ( top 12 fwd) ( top 7 dman)(approx 589 skaters) ( 490 min)
    Evg/60 rank
    A1/60 tank
    A2/60 tank
    You will see the 3 variables top 277 are forward heavy.
    They drive evgf/60.

    I created a theory years ago called Belichek and me.
    You want players who repeat + ve goal dif actions on the balance sheet.
    As D Sutter said to me “ we are turning them into fucking robots”
    Repeat, repeat.

    The check is sum of 5 skaters evg/60.
    Versus
    Dman ( pair and goalie) evga/60.
    What is Barries contribution to evg/60?
    Is it worth abandoning def of HD area?

    I look forward to you presenting the data.
    It is easy to get from NTS.

    I will trust you are giving accurate data from each yr.

    Performance is symbiotic.
    Stated almost right at the start you can trend for types of players that match a player.
    But you can still have a WOWY sensible pairing that fails.

    Binary people want absolutes.
    That is not how it works!
    Simple curve.
    But grabbing the + ve end of curve and dumping -ve end of curve is good mgmt.

    PS:
    Do not cave.
    Step up and Show the data.
    Barries performance is what it is.

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Benning is a good 3rd pairing D.Don’t Peter Principle him.

    He also has a great track record playing in the top-4, too. He didn’t have a great preseason, but is he a worse option than Kris Russell? That’s doubtful.

  132. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ryan Rishaug‏Verified account @TSNRyanRishaug · 2h2 hours ago
    More

    My sense is, if Persson can go D will be

    Nurse Bear
    Klefbom Persson
    Russell Benning.

    If he can’t

    Nurse Russell
    Klefbom Bear
    Manning Benning.

    I believe Rishaug’s guess is the correct one and even if it is option 2 for Saturday b/c Persson isn’t ready to go, we should see option 1 soon. It changes the Nurse-Larsson shutdown plan into a Nurse-Bear puck-mobility plan – but I’m hear for that.

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Ryan Rishaug‏Verified account @TSNRyanRishaug · 2h2 hours ago
    More

    My sense is, if Persson can go D will be

    Nurse Bear
    Klefbom Persson
    Russell Benning.

    If he can’t

    Nurse Russell
    Klefbom Bear
    Manning Benning.

    I believe Rishaug’s guess is the correct one and even if it is option 2 for Saturday b/c Persson isn’t ready to go, we should see option 1 soon.It changes the Nurse-Larsson shutdown plan into a Nurse-Bear puck-mobility plan – but I’m hear for that.

    Surely they didn’t bring Lagesson up to watch?! I would think option 2 is actually Lagesson – Benning for the third pair. And maybe we dress 7 D.

  134. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Sekera played nearly 22 minutes on a good Dallas team last night.

    Paired with their young star Heiskanen, Sekera had a +11.26 CF% rel.

    Urghh. Death by a million cuts

  135. LEAP OF FAITH says:

    HT Joe,

    Lol ok HT Joe, I feel like you called me out of my lurking! Unfortunately I have nothing substantial to add to the blog at this time, I’m quite happy being a lurker! I’ve been here literally daily since 2016 and lurking on and off for much longer. I suppose I will take this opportunity though to say hello community! This is simply the greatest place on the ole Al Gore, thank you a million LT!

  136. rickithebear says:

    JP:

    One of the first things Insaid is.
    Data says one thing. (Well not in the case the data you choose.)
    Then look at video to see if the SOE match.
    If they do, yeah.
    If not, Why?

    Stop the silly eye versus math.
    You need both.
    Accurate revisitable
    Video
    And
    Data.

    “We are the hockey world”
    “We fans are the children”
    “scouts and data are the ones who make a better day, so let’s start vidin.

  137. jp says:

    rickithebear:

    I ask you to give evidence:
    16/17, 17/18, 18/19
    Barries Top 6 dman (approx 186)(approx 650 win)
    Evga/60 rank

    Barries: Skater ( top 12 fwd) ( top 7 dman)(approx 589 skaters) ( 490 min)
    Evg/60 rank
    A1/60 tank
    A2/60 tank
    You will see the 3 variables top 277 are forward heavy.
    They drive evgf/60.

    I created a theory years ago called Belichek and me.
    You want players who repeat + ve goal dif actions on the balance sheet.
    As D Sutter said to me “ we are turning them into fucking robots”
    Repeat, repeat.

    The check is sum of 5 skaters evg/60.
    Versus
    Dman ( pair and goalie) evga/60.
    What is Barries contribution to evg/60?
    Is it worth abandoning def of HD area?

    I look forward to you presenting the data.
    It is easy to get from NTS.

    I will trust you are giving accurate data from each yr.

    Performance is symbiotic.Stated almost right at the start you can trend for types of players that match a player.
    But you can still have a WOWY sensible pairing that fails.

    Binary people want absolutes.
    That is not how it works!
    Simple curve.
    But grabbing the + ve end of curve and dumping -ve end of curve is good mgmt.

    PS:
    Do not cave.
    Step up and Show the data.
    Barries performance is what it is.

    Tyson Barrie has been a plus player at 5 on 5 in 5 of his 6 full seasons. And he’s been positive relative to his team (GF%rel) all 6 years.

    Colorado’s GA/60 which him on the ice was better than team average 2 of the 6 years, worse 4 of the 6, but his GA numbers always hovered around team average.

    Colorado’s GF/60 with him on the ice has always been significantly better than when he’s off the ice (he lead the teams defense in GF/60 4 years, was a narrow 2nd one year and narrow 3rd one year). Barrie reproducibly creates more goals scored for his team than the other defenders.

    I understand your rationale for discounting offense for defenders but I don’t agree with it. Barrie turns out to be a beautiful example of a player driving offense from the back end, every single year, while not giving up a ton the other way.

    He’s not a top GA/60 defenseman (in large part because he’s played on mostly bad teams), but he’s very clearly had better results overall than his teammates, driven by more goals for happening when he’s on the ice.

    Pretty sure this is repeatable +ve goal differential action.

  138. Lowetide says:

    HT Joe:
    I miss many of the all-time greats… Woodguy, GMoney, Gentleman Backpacker, Steve Smith, Hbomb… there are more of you obviously.

    The only two constants are LT (thanks), and the fact that the high quality discussions here keep bringing me back. Hopefully OP comes back but if not, time for some new people (who were previously happy to simply lurk) to have something to say.

    I think it’s important to let people consume things as they feel appropriate. Priorities change. As much as I ramble on about getting the Hockey News every week as a youngster, by 1978 I was driving a car, had walking around money and had other interests.

    It’s the same as we grow older, especially when family arrives and our days no longer belong only to us. I knew a man named Gord, years ago, he was a Canucks fan. He was a friend, and our lives intersected for over a decade, first daily, then weekly, then rarely, before none at all.

    About three weeks before he passed, I had a chance to reconnect. It was in the period shortly after 2011 spring, and we both realized he would not have a chance to see his Canucks win Stanley. Our connection, the close one, was 25 years gone by the time he passed, but he was a friend of mine.

    If I can write a few lines about you, and you me, even if we only meet on this blog, well that’s something worthwhile. It only works on a volunteer basis, though. No pressure.

  139. gregsaint says:

    Maybe they’ll go with 7 D and sit the 2 min man?

  140. pts2pndr says:

    texmex:
    I just lost all faith in Holland….. on TSN1260 he gave credit to Chiarelli!!

    Albeit, he gave him credit for drafting of the young D in Bakersfield.

    Drafting under Chiarelli was better than any GM not named Sather.

  141. pts2pndr says:

    Dr. Taboggan: Happy for Lagesson.

    When Persson is healthy I hope they sit Russell.

    The occasional overhead view of the game can be helpful for most young players and can accomplish a higher understanding than just video. Is is quite amazing the number of players that comment positvely

  142. Ryan says:

    jp:
    From earlier. I did some legwork so I figured I’d post it in the new thread.

    Flames top 4 D at 5v5 with Smith or with Rittich last season (they played almost equal games and minutes):

    Brodie
    CF/60 61.9 59.7
    CA/60 45.8 50.5
    CF% 57.5 54.2

    SF/60 32.0 31.0
    SA/60 25.9 27.5
    SF% 55.2 53.0

    GF/60 3.4 2.5
    GA/60 2.1 2.2
    GF% 61.9 52.7

    SH% 10.7 7.9
    SV% .919 .920
    PDO 1.026 .999

    Hanifin
    CF/60 63.9 60.4
    CA/60 52.5 57.9
    CF% 54.9 51.1

    SF/60 33.4 33.3
    SA/60 27.9 32.0
    SF% 54.5 51.0

    GF/60 2.3 3.2
    GA/60 2.5 2.4
    GF% 47.3 57.1

    SH% 6.8 9.6
    SV% .910 .925
    PDO .977 1.021

    Giordano
    CF/60 68.2 65.0
    CA/60 47.3 49.9
    CF% 59.0 55.6

    SF/60 35.3 32.4
    SA/60 25.9 27.5
    SF% 57.7 54.1

    GF/60 4.0 3.1
    GA/60 2.2 2.4
    GF% 64.3 56.7

    SH% 11.4 9.6
    SV% .914 .914
    PDO 1.027 1.009

    Hamonic
    CF/60 66.1 64.5
    CA/60 53.8 56.1
    CF% 64.0 51.6

    SF/60 34.4 33.4
    SA/60 27.8 29.5
    SF% 55.3 53.1

    GF/60 2.67 3.61
    GA/60 2.97 2.51
    GF% 47.3 59.0

    SH% 7.8 10.8
    SV% .893 .915
    PDO .971 1.023

    So for each of the top 4 Flames D, the CF and SF were higher with Smith in net, and the CA and GA were lower. The goals didn’t always follow, but that’s impressive and compelling.

    But does it repeat? The flames had multiple goalies in addition to Smith in 17-18, and the WOWY doesn’t work since it only uses games where Smith plays (so others are not included).

    So I went back to 16-17 in Arizona where Smith played 55 games and Domingue was the main backup (31 games). Again, Smith first, Domingue 2nd.

    Goligoski
    CF/60 52.6 51.5
    CA/60 64.0 61.9
    CF% 45.1 45.4

    SF/60 27.9 27.2
    SA/60 34.3 32.6
    SF% 44.8 45.5

    GF/60 1.9 2.9
    GA/60 2.4 3.0
    GF% 44.8 48.9

    SH% 6.8 10.7
    SV% .932 .907
    PDO 1.000 1.014

    Ekman-Larsson
    CF/60 51.3 50.0
    CA/60 62.3 62.4
    CF% 45.2 44.5

    SF/60 28.3 24.9
    SA/60 33.5 32.5
    SF% 45.7 43.4

    GF/60 2.0 2.5
    GA/60 2.5 3.0
    GF% 44.9 45.5

    SH% 7.2 10.5
    SV% .926 .907
    PDO .988 1.008

    Murphy
    CF/60 50.2 50.3
    CA/60 57.0 60.6
    CF% 46.9 45.4

    SF/60 27.2 26.7
    SA/60 30.0 33.9
    SF% 47.5 44.1

    GF/60 1.6 2.7
    GA/60 2.5 3.1
    GF% 39.3 46.3

    SH% 6.0 10.1
    SV% .916 .908
    PDO .976 1.009

    Schenn
    CF/60 52.4 51.1
    CA/60 67.6 62.9
    CF% 43.7 44.8

    SF/60 27.8 24.5
    SA/60 35.3 32.4
    SF% 44.1 43.1

    GF/60 2.0 1.5
    GA/60 2.4 2.2
    GF% 45.0 40.9

    SH% 7.1 6.1
    SV% .932 .933
    PDO 1.003 .994

    Here we don’t see a clear effect of Smith on “for” or “against” metrics (on balance I think he helps the for and hurts the against slightly, but I didn’t calculate anything). I should probably have stopped after the Calgary set

    Maybe the Calgary numbers mean nothing? Maybe it takes a team that can move the puck once Smith sends it up to see an effect? I dunno.

    If nothing else I think we can say that he’s not a clear drag on corsi or shot against metrics. And I do take a little positive out of this, Smith might actually help the team with his stick handling though it’s hard to be sure.

    Thanks for all of the work.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=CGY

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20162017&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=ARI&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

  143. rickithebear says:

    Oilfire:

    I grew up around the PEOPLE ( Mrs. McCurley was a hidden figure lady) that sent MEN to the moon.
    Most grew up in rural homes were two – 4+ sided intellectual discussions were the norm.

    There is a disease in this country we’re feelings, opinion and consensus is being treated as fact.
    It is not.
    But Opinion can be based on quality observed fact.

    Op is a person I enjoy intellectual discussions with because of that.
    Like on the farm in Rocky.
    You enjoy the banter.

    Here is a hint.
    If ask for video
    Or
    Say interesting point of view.

    Just the facts ma,am.

  144. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide: If I can write a few lines about you, and you me, even if we only meet on this blog, well that’s something worthwhile. It only works on a volunteer basis, though. No pressure.

    Thank you for the response.

    What is consistently amazing to me is how you have fostered this environment on your blog. The only other times I have ventured into the realm of social media, I’ve seen (and regrettably participated in my share of) some negative interactions. I’m not saying all social media is bad, but from my limited experience, it generally doesn’t promote nuance, resulting in black-and-white arguments cropping up too easily. Your constant lessons and reminders of patience, respect, and – well – nuance, has created a very special place on the internet. Thank you!

  145. Jethro Tull says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Sekera played nearly 22 minutes on a good Dallas team last night.

    Paired with their young star Heiskanen, Sekera had a +11.26 CF% rel.

    Urghh. Death by a million cuts

    He’ll probably get injured by some idiot, knee on knee or something and some will be all “see! Injury prone!”

  146. OilClog says:

    People took potshots at OP simply because he lays its on extra Authority figure thick when you don’t fall in line with what he has to say 🤷‍♂️

    Woodguys daily numbers and personal style of optimism are truly a spice that’s missing. Even if he yelled at me a few times lol

    Hopefully Russell on his off side and high minutes against elites end merciful for all after a couple shifts. Will truly determine if Tippett is any different.

  147. Ryan says:

    HT Joe:
    I miss many of the all-time greats… Woodguy, GMoney, Gentleman Backpacker, Steve Smith, Hbomb… there are more of you obviously.

    The only two constants are LT (thanks), and the fact that the high quality discussions here keep bringing me back. Hopefully OP comes back but if not, time for some new people (who were previously happy to simply lurk) to have something to say.

    I’ve only been here since some point in 2008–long enough to have been here when Dellow and Vic Ferrari were still here. Those were cool times. Still crazy to think that a couple of dudes posting comments on a blog now run analytic departments for the NHL.

    Woodguy is awesome enough that I engineered a bet that I couldn’t win so I could give him a gift of appreciation for all his hard work here. For a time it was like two blogs in one. Lowetide’s main post and the second post shortly after from Woodguy.

    GMoney was loads of fun when he was here. You could think of an analytical questions and he would do all of the leg work and pull the data and provide the answer.

    Some like Ricki the Bear and Leadfarmer predate my arrival here, but I don’t really remember those guys until the more recent years. JP, and occasionally Georgexs and I bounce lots of ideas back and forth and that’s the stuff I come here to do. Admittedly, I probably come across in a snarkish way—since it’s hard not to when you’re always right about everything!!! 😛

    The blog comments here are like life in that everything keeps moving. People come and go and you can’t stop it or go back, no matter how much you want to sometimes.

  148. OmJo says:

    jp: Tyson Barrie has been a plus player at 5 on 5 in 5 of his 6 full seasons. And he’s been positive relative to his team (GF%rel) all 6 years.

    Colorado’s GA/60 which him on the ice was better than team average 2 of the 6 years, worse 4 of the 6, but his GA numbers always hovered around team average.

    Colorado’s GF/60 with him on the ice has always been significantly better than when he’s off the ice (he lead the teams defense in GF/60 4 years, was a narrow 2nd one year and narrow 3rd one year). Barrie reproducibly creates more goals scored for his team than the other defenders.

    I understand your rationale for discounting offense for defenders but I don’t agree with it. Barrie turns out to be a beautiful example of a player driving offense from the back end, every single year, while not giving up a ton the other way.

    He’s not a top GA/60 defenseman (in large part because he’s played on mostly bad teams), but he’s very clearly had better results overall than his teammates, driven by more goals for happening when he’s on the ice.

    Pretty sure this is repeatable +ve goal differential action.

    Doesn’t Barrie get sheltered, though?

    I’m not asking in a “a-ha, gotcha!” kind of way. IIRC, he is (or at least was) sheltered quite a bit defensively. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  149. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: Drafting under Chiarelliwas better than any GM not named Sather.

    Trading draft picks for players was worse under Chiarelli than any other GM.

    Okay. Maybe MacT was worse, but Chiarelli was a close 2nd.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    So excited for the Condors’ season opener tonight.

    AHL TV is free for the weekend and I encourage all to watch.

    Listening to Woody yesterday, this is what we’ll see (although it will change with Lagesson recalled to Edmonton):

    Benson/Marody/Currie
    Joe G./Malone/Yamamoto
    Maksimov/McLeod/Gagner
    Vesey/Essposito/Hebig

    Lagesson/Bouchard
    Lowe/Jones
    Samorukov/Kulevich

    Starrett
    Skinner

    What a stacked team.

    ———————

    With Lagesson up, I think we’ll see:

    Jones/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Kulevich
    Lowe/Desharnais

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m damn excited to see Willie play (although bummed I won’t get to see him tonight for the Condors) but, at the same time, its disapointing as it likely means Persson is unlikely to play tomorrow night.

    If Persson was playing, we’d have 3 righties allowing Russell to stay at 3LD, however, if Persson can’t go, it seems he’ll be shifted over to the right side and maybe even up to 2RD and we know he that generally goes.

    ———————————-

    Really hope they don’t start the Drai/McDavid/Kass line as per practice.

    For one, last game Drai/Kass were able to create offence without McDavid and that’s awesome.

    Also, I think that line is better when its spotted in here or there or moved to later in the game than from the start.

    I’d love to see the top two lines from last game with Jurco in for Nygard and Nygard moved down to the bottom 6.

  152. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: Drafting under Chiarelliwas better than any GM not named Sather.

    It always bugged me how GMs got credit for good (or bad) drafting, as if they’re the ones who do the amateur scouting and assemble the draft lists.

    If he did in fact do this, kudos to him. Otherwise… meh.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Really liked what Woodcroft had to say about Gagner on the Gregor show yesterday – he’s come down with the right attitude and with the goal to make it back to the NHL. He knows what he needs to work on and is excited to do so. He also wants to work on some new things such as the PK as he sees NHL ice time opportunity there.

    I don’t know if he’ll be able to re-create himself as an NHL PK guy at this point in his career but I love the fact that he can acknowledge the differences in his game and the NHL game from 10 years ago and that he’s trying to adapt as a player.

  154. Ozoil says:

    Completely agree with this. Mcdavid will figure it out. The problem has been offense without mcdavid. The drai nuge kass line was fire. I know pre season doesn’t always translate but if it worked so well, why not give it a go. Jurco mcdavid neal. From what I recall in the one game that line clicked.

    PinkSocks:
    97 and 29 in practice on the same line.So now lines 2 through 4 will bleed.Am I really that naïve/stupid/foolish to believe that chemistry may take longer than 1 period to establish?

    Draisaitl /Kassian /RNH was working.McDavid will figure it out.FFS leave them on separate lines so at least only 2 lines need to be hidden.

  155. OmJo says:

    Pouzar: Say one thing, do the exact opposite…same as it ever was.

    Maybe there actually IS something in the water.

    Either that or the Oilers have a tendancy of hiring insane off-ice staff.

  156. PennersPancakes says:

    OmJo: It always bugged me how GMs got credit for good (or bad) drafting, as if they’re the ones who do the amateur scouting and assemble the draft lists.

    If he did in fact do this, kudos to him. Otherwise… meh.

    A good GM finds good scouts and listens to them. Clearly Chia wasnt scouring the WHL but he was responsible for the people who did. Scouts should get credit but so should the GM.

  157. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Welcome back, it wasn’t the same without you.

  158. Harpers Hair says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    What did I do to deserve this team?

    What can I do for repentance?

    Apparently you can buy carbon offset credits.
    Erases all sins.

  159. duct tape and foil says:

    We have 3 elite centers and it’s time to play that way and try balance the attack. Plus we have 3 RW who have 20 goal seasons in the recent past (Neal/Chiasson) or were on pace with top 6 minutes last year (Kass). We can cobble together a decent C/RW 4th line from the remains

    xxx McDavid Neal
    xxx Drai Kass
    xxx RNH Chiasson
    xxx Sheahan Archi/Russell

    So the question is who plays LW with these pairs? Here is my take:

    Nygard McDavid Neal (2 guys attack with elite speed and have a big sniper following up)
    Jurco Drai Kass (more of a cycle line with the best passer in the NHL at C)
    Gagner RNH Chaisson (bring back Sam and try break even with this line – sorry RNH)
    Granlund/Khaira Sheahan Archi/Russell (play whoever tries hardest and screws up least)

    No surprise. We need a LW in the worst way along with a RHD. JP is nuts with this opportunity staring him in the face but whatever. IMHO we need RNH to bite the bullet, take a more defensive role, and pull the 3rd line to respectability. Drai/McDavid have to push the river on the their own lines. Only path to wins that I can see while Holland fixes the issue on LW. Maybe he can swing a deal with JP and Gags for a decent LW who a bit more expensive.

  160. PennersPancakes says:

    rickithebear: Binary people want absolutes.
    That is not how it works!

    Other binary people, definitely not you or your methodologies though /s.

  161. Cassandra says:

    rickithebear: Have you look at NFL schematics.
    During the first year of SB nation Det lions blog – Pride of Detroit I study football.
    Then stoped cause I Identified and stated PFF would become basis for high standard of player measure.
    They are at a point we’re their analysis has to go to a deeper schematic level of measure.

    Patricia was hired. Once healthy I invested in schematic analysis of position players.
    What was base action required of each and who they went after.

    Nothing sweeter than giving up low draft picks for almost sure fire fits in base def structure.

    Other teams cast-offs are Belichek pro bowl level players.

    Only now it is
    Other teams cast offs are
    NWE, DET, TEN
    Players.

    I ask you to give evidence:
    16/17, 17/18, 18/19
    Barries Top 6 dman (approx 186)(approx 650 win)
    Evga/60 rank

    Barries: Skater ( top 12 fwd) ( top 7 dman)(approx 589 skaters) ( 490 min)
    Evg/60 rank
    A1/60 tank
    A2/60 tank
    You will see the 3 variables top 277 are forward heavy.
    They drive evgf/60.

    I created a theory years ago called Belichek and me.
    You want players who repeat + ve goal dif actions on the balance sheet.
    As D Sutter said to me “ we are turning them into fucking robots”
    Repeat, repeat.

    The check is sum of 5 skaters evg/60.
    Versus
    Dman ( pair and goalie) evga/60.
    What is Barries contribution to evg/60?
    Is it worth abandoning def of HD area?

    I look forward to you presenting the data.
    It is easy to get from NTS.

    I will trust you are giving accurate data from each yr.

    Performance is symbiotic.Stated almost right at the start you can trend for types of players that match a player.
    But you can still have a WOWY sensible pairing that fails.

    Binary people want absolutes.
    That is not how it works!
    Simple curve.
    But grabbing the + ve end of curve and dumping -ve end of curve is good mgmt.

    PS:
    Do not cave.
    Step up and Show the data.
    Barries performance is what it is.

    Every time you post this nonsense that evaluates D offense as if it can be compared to F offense on the basis of which you conclude that D offense is irrelevant because an offensive D contributes at a 3rd or 4th line level I say the same thing. You are ignoring marginal gains and have no concept of replacement value.

    This isn’t an opinion of mine. It is a fact. A fact you happen to not understand. As a consequence you dramatically undervalue the contributions of D that generate offense (i.e. Barrie) while dramatically overvaluing guys like Manning.

    This is one of the many gross errors you make in every single of one of your supposed axioms, errors you make while you pat yourself on the back for your uacknowledged genius.

    I’ve given up trying to get you to understand. Your narcissism is far too deep for that. The best that can be done is to post warnings to others of your intellectual charlatanism.

  162. jp says:

    OmJo: Doesn’t Barrie get sheltered, though?

    I’m not asking in a “a-ha, gotcha!” kind of way. IIRC, he is (or at least was) sheltered quite a bit defensively. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Good point. He absolutely does (actually played 3rd pairing comp most years by PuckIQ).

  163. Cassandra says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:

    One of the first things Insaid is.
    Data says one thing. (Well not in the case the data you choose.)
    Then look at video to see if the SOE match.
    If they do, yeah.
    If not, Why?

    Stop the silly eye versus math.
    You need both.
    Accurate revisitable
    Video
    And
    Data.

    “We are the hockey world”
    “We fans are the children”
    “scouts and data are the ones who make a better day, so let’s start vidin.

    If you actually watched hockey you would know that your table hockey version of reality does not correspond in any way with how the game is played. Not according to eye. Not according to data. Not according to any coaching system that exists anywhere. It is a fiction you’ve created.

  164. OmJo says:

    PennersPancakes: A good GM finds good scouts and listens to them. Clearly Chia wasnt scouring the WHL but he was responsible for the people who did. Scouts should get credit but so should the GM.

    Credit for choosing the scouts, sure.

    But credit for actually listening to them, eh… that’s what he’s supposed to do, after all.

    I will give the GM more credit for pro scouting.

    I’m biased against Chiarelli, I’ll openly admit that. So when I say he, or GM, I’m not talking about him specifically but a GM in general.

  165. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s important to let people consume things as they feel appropriate. Priorities change. As much as I ramble on about getting the Hockey News every week as a youngster, by 1978 I was driving a car, had walking around money and had other interests.

    It’s the same as we grow older, especially when family arrives and our days no longer belong only to us. I knew a man named Gord, years ago, he was a Canucks fan. He was a friend, and our lives intersected for over a decade, first daily, then weekly, then rarely, before none at all.

    About three weeks before he passed, I had a chance to reconnect. It was in the period shortly after 2011 spring, and we both realized he would not have a chance to see his Canucks win Stanley. Our connection, the close one, was 25 years gone by the time he passed, but he was a friend of mine.

    If I can write a few lines about you, and you me, even if we only meet on this blog, well that’s something worthwhile. It only works on a volunteer basis, though. No pressure.

    Well said, as always.

  166. OmJo says:

    jp: Good point. He absolutely does (actually played 3rd pairing comp most years by PuckIQ).

    Yeah… One of the reasons I’m not too high on him, and wouldn’t be willing to trade a Nuge or Nurse for him like, again IIRC, was entertained over the last couple of seasons by some. His offense is nice, but $5.5M for a defenceman who doesn’t play very good defense doesn’t really help the Oilers.

    His handling probably inflates his numbers a bit.

  167. Ozoil says:

    duct tape and foil,

    As much as I love the nuge, I think we have two elite centers and a really good one.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan,

    Woodguy is awesome enough that I engineered a bet that I couldn’t win so I could give him a gift of appreciation for all his hard work here. For a time it was like two blogs in one. Lowetide’s main post and the second post shortly after from Woodguy.

    While I agree with you that I’m awesome, you thought you had the best of it in our bet and fully expected to win.

    You are a gentleman and paid up….and then some.

    I still have ~1/2 that bottle of the Bunnahabhain 25yr that I won from you, but have long since digested the wonderful dinner and cocktails we had at XIX.

    Also,

    I haven’t posted much over the summer mostly because:

    1) I’m really busy
    2) There wasn’t much to talk about

    I’m sure I’ll post more during the season as time allows.

  169. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: If you actually watched hockey you would know that your table hockey version of reality does not correspond in any way with how the game is played.Not according to eye.Not according to data.Not according to any coaching system that exists anywhere.It is a fiction you’ve created.

    Love ya, DSF, and you are welcome here. Maybe sometimes ease up on the acid tongue. 🙂

  170. duct tape and foil says:

    Ozoil:
    duct tape and foil,

    As much as I love the nuge, I think we have two elite centers and a really good one.

    Agree but I think he’s an elite 2nd line C and he should be able to drive a 3rd line.

  171. SVR says:

    Anyone notice what number this Gusev guy is wearing? WTF?

  172. Ozoil says:

    duct tape and foil,

    Fully agree he should and can carry the 3rd line, if he had somewhat decent 3rd line wingers. He’s been stapled mostly to players too far beneath him to show his true value. Maybe a couple of the bets like jurco and nygard payoff or a couple of the young guys catch fire when called up. Until that happens though, I don’t think there’s enough talent to keep nuge useful on a 3rd line.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/DNBsports

    Bear and Lagesson are up. Bouchard (or his contract, anyway) is down. Defence is shaping up for the Oilers.
    7 mins ago

    As anticipated:

    https://twitter.com/coopsie39/status/1180113217722470400

    OriginalPouzar
    @coopsie39
    Really intrigued to see what happens after #practice today. Bouch will get sent down and Bear recalled but If Persson isn’t good to go I expect Lagesson recalled as well.
    7:31 AM · Oct 4, 2019 from Calgary, Alberta·Twitter for iPhone

  174. jtblack says:

    LOCKNESS MONSTER SIGHTING?
    KOKANEE SASQUATCH?

    NO wait. It’s WOODGUY and OP !!!!!

  175. Sierra says:

    PinkSocks:
    97 and 29 in practice on the same line.So now lines 2 through 4 will bleed.Am I really that naïve/stupid/foolish to believe that chemistry may take longer than 1 period to establish?

    Draisaitl /Kassian /RNH was working.McDavid will figure it out.FFS leave them on separate lines so at least only 2 lines need to be hidden.

    Man this team.

  176. Sierra says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s important to let people consume things as they feel appropriate. Priorities change. As much as I ramble on about getting the Hockey News every week as a youngster, by 1978 I was driving a car, had walking around money and had other interests.

    It’s the same as we grow older, especially when family arrives and our days no longer belong only to us. I knew a man named Gord, years ago, he was a Canucks fan. He was a friend, and our lives intersected for over a decade, first daily, then weekly, then rarely, before none at all.

    About three weeks before he passed, I had a chance to reconnect. It was in the period shortly after 2011 spring, and we both realized he would not have a chance to see his Canucks win Stanley. Our connection, the close one, was 25 years gone by the time he passed, but he was a friend of mine.

    If I can write a few lines about you, and you me, even if we only meet on this blog, well that’s something worthwhile. It only works on a volunteer basis, though. No pressure.

    You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. We are all better for this environment you so graciously provide us with.

  177. Sierra says:

    Harpers Hair: Apparently you can buy carbon offset credits.
    Erases all sins.

    Lol, post of the day.

  178. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Also,
    I haven’t posted much over the summer mostly because:
    1) I’m really busy
    2) There wasn’t much to talk about
    I’m sure I’ll post more during the season as time allows.

    That’s cool, cause I find these May-September bromances really painful.

  179. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Eyyyyyyyyy

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Eyyyyyyy

    Just curious, are you going to be doing game day posts again?

  180. Shane says:

    Sierra: You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. We are all better for this environment you so graciously provide us with.

    +1

  181. ArmchairGM says:

    New thread up, people.

  182. Yeti says:

    jtblack: KOKANEE SASQUATCH?

    Close

  183. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis: That’s cool, cause I find these May-September bromances really painful.

    Alcohol, lube and hash help.

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Eyyyyyyyyy

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Eyyyyyyy

    Just curious, are you going to be doing game day posts again?

    When it occurs to me to do one and I have something to share I probably will.

    I probably want to track 5v5 GF%, McDavid on/off as well as special teams goal share as well again.

  185. Genjutsu says:

    wolf8888:
    Leroy Draisdale,

    I also disagree. OP adds to the site. Cmon back boy!

    Totally agree I miss the updates on prospects. This place is lesser without his presence. Hope he returns soon.

  186. Chris says:

    Condors looking outstanding in the first couple minutes.

  187. Chris says:

    Jones is playing with Lowe. Gagner just hi the crossbar.

  188. Chris says:

    Currie scores from Bouchard and Marody with a gorgeous goal. 1-0 Condors.

  189. Chris says:

    Correction. Curry from Benson and Bouchard.

  190. Chris says:

    Yamamoto scores from Jones and Malone. This line was all over the Gulls. This game isn’t close so far.

  191. jp says:

    OmJo: Yeah… One of the reasons I’m not too high on him, and wouldn’t be willing to trade a Nuge or Nurse for him like, again IIRC, was entertained over the last couple of seasons by some. His offense is nice, but $5.5M for a defenceman who doesn’t play very good defense doesn’t really help the Oilers.

    His handling probably inflates his numbers a bit.

    Agreed on all points.

  192. duct tape and foil says:

    Ozoil:
    duct tape and foil,

    Fully agree he should and can carry the 3rd line, if he had somewhat decent 3rd line wingers.He’s been stapled mostly to players too far beneath him to show his true value.Maybe a couple of the bets like jurco and nygard payoff or a couple of the young guys catch fire when called up.Until that happens though, I don’t think there’s enough talent to keep nuge useful on a 3rd line.

    Depends on your definition of useful I guess. If we get caved on the 3rd and 4th lines as bad as last year then it won’t matter what the top 6 does. The bottom 6 will give it all back and more. I’m starting to get more than a little worried that the top guys on this team care a bit too much about their individual results and having fun playing offense instead of doing the dirty jobs you need to win. That smells more than a little bit like the early days of Hall, Ebs and Schultz.

  193. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Love ya, DSF, and you are welcome here. Maybe sometimes ease up on the acid tongue. 🙂

    Acid tongue sounds like making out with a tree planter.

  194. hags9k says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s important to let people consume things as they feel appropriate. Priorities change. As much as I ramble on about getting the Hockey News every week as a youngster, by 1978 I was driving a car, had walking around money and had other interests.

    It’s the same as we grow older, especially when family arrives and our days no longer belong only to us. I knew a man named Gord, years ago, he was a Canucks fan. He was a friend, and our lives intersected for over a decade, first daily, then weekly, then rarely, before none at all.

    About three weeks before he passed, I had a chance to reconnect. It was in the period shortly after 2011 spring, and we both realized he would not have a chance to see his Canucks win Stanley. Our connection, the close one, was 25 years gone by the time he passed, but he was a friend of mine.

    If I can write a few lines about you, and you me, even if we only meet on this blog, well that’s something worthwhile. It only works on a volunteer basis, though. No pressure.

    The tears are for Larsson’s leg, not this post….honest.

  195. CallighenMan says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Get Lost

  196. steelymac17 says:

    How does Remenda keep this gig?

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