Ken Holland isn’t done shopping, based on his own verbal. Jesse Puljujarvi is in play, the free-agent signings are likely done and not adequate compared to the team’s needs. What does this team have?
Here is the 49-man list, with two slides.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
CURRENT 50-MAN
1 G Mikko Koskinen. $4.5 million for three seasons beginning 2019-20. I don’t like the money but am fine with the bet.
2 G Mike Smith. A $2 million, one year investment. I think it’s risky, would have preferred a less weathered option.
3 G Shane Starrett. $700, 000 this season and then an RFA and arbitration eligible. I believe he has a chance here, needs to be dominant again in Bakersfield and wait for his chance.
4. G Dylan Wells. $745,000 this coming season, the second year of his entry deal. All of the young goalies need to show separation this season, Holland’s drafting of Ilya Konovalev may have started a clock.
5 G Stuart Skinner. $784,166 this season, the middle year of entry. He had his moments, including a playoff performance that may give him traction. He’s in the same spot as Wells.
6 G Olivier Rodrigue. $809,167 and he’s one of two contracts (Broberg) that will slide before the season begins. Solid goalie prospect.
7 LD Oscar Klefbom. $4.167 million through summer 2023. Klefbom is a vital player for this team, as he displays the complete range of skills and can be counted on in any situation. His health is central to success.
8 LD Darnell Nurse. $3.2 million for another season and then RFA. A big season on the way, he’s going to get a massive raise next summer if he delivers 40+ points again. I wrote about him here.
9 LD Caleb Jones. $720,000 this season and then RFA. The way has been cleared for a young defenseman and Jones will arrive in camp as the favourite. Exceptional skater, good puck moving ability.
10 LD Brandon Manning. $2.25 million and then UFA. It makes sense to keep him on the roster as a No. 7D over a younger player who needs plenty of work. I don’t think he’ll play much in the NHL 2019-20.
11 LD William Lagesson. $741,666 next season and RFA. He remains under the radar because of Jones, but the organization may feel he’s close as well.
12 LD Keegan Lowe. $675,000 this season and then UFA. He has been mentor to several of the youngsters currently climbing the ladder.
13 LD Dmitri Samorukov. His entry level deal starts this fall ($825,000). The future as it pertains to shutdown defensemen. Maybe there’s more here.
14 LD Philip Broberg. First-round pick just signed, he has a major future with the Oilers if he develops.
15 RD Adam Larsson. $4.166 million for two more seasons and then UFA. One of the most important players on the team. Vital he rebound.
16 LD Kris Russell. $4 million this and next year. He is not a strong partner for Darnell Nurse based on Puck IQ metrics.
17 RD Matt Benning. $1.9 million next season and then RFA. I like him enough to consider him a legit top-4 D option, would place him on second pair over Russell.
18 RD Joel Persson. $1,000,000 next year and then RFA. Has a chance to make the team, important he impress early.
19 RD Ethan Bear. $720,000 this and next year. Impossible to know where he lands, there is a version of the script that gets him an early recall so Bouchard and others can continue to develop in the minors.
20 RD Logan Day. $750,000 and then RFA. Puck mover has outstanding ability and earned himself an NHL deal.
21 RD Evan Bouchard. $925,000 entry deal kicks in this fall. Bouchard is just entering pro hockey but could climb over a bunch of these young blue at any time. Suspect he’s in the NHL by March.
22 RD Ryan Mantha. $870,000 next season if he plays.
23 LC Connor McDavid. $12.5 million through 2026. The franchise. He left unhappy and injured, and it will be fascinating to see how he approaches 2019-20. There’s a lot of pressure.
24 LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. $6 million this and one season after. Nuge is central to Edmonton’s success in 2019-20. Tippett will need him to center a tough minutes line that can outscore opponents.
25 RC Gaetan Haas. $925,000 for one season and then UFA. A real wildcard, he is a righty and has speed. Can he deliver enough offense?
26 RC Kyle Brodziak. $1.15 million next season and then UFA. I believe he’ll go LTIR if he doesn’t make the team. What does he have to prove in Bakersfield?
27 LC Colby Cave. $675,000 next season and then RFA. He has a job but the GM who brought him in is gone. No idea where he lands.
28 RC Josh Currie. $687,500 this coming season and then UFA. Don’t look past Currie, who impressed down the stretch with the Oilers. He could catch on in a number of areas.
29 RC Cameron Hebig. $759,166 next season and then RFA. He started strong and then faded as other youngsters emerged. Some of those men may be in Edmonton in 2019-20, it’s go time for a pretty skilled forward.
30 LC Ryan McLeod. $834,167 times three, his entry deal begins this fall. A speed demon who was shy as a scorer during his junior career, his first pro season will be fun to track.
31 LC Brad Malone. $700,000 and then UFA next summer. Center insurance likely to spend most or all of the season in Bakersfield.
32 LW Leon Draisaitl. $8.5 million through 2025 summer. A 50-goal season is the stuff of legends, can he do it again?
33 LW Joakim Nygard. $925,000 this season and then UFA. At 26, the blazer arrives in the NHL. He’s in a fantastic spot, my estimates have him winning a job on one of the skill lines.
34 LW Milan Lucic. $6 million through 2023 summer. Kurt Leavins has talked about a late bonus and trade, others have suggested the big man is coming back. The best spot, based on current roster, might be No. 2 line with Nuge. They won’t score a lot but can keep the puck a long way from danger and that has appeal.
35 LW Jujhar Khaira. $1.2 million for the next two seasons. Khaira brings a nice range to the team, but will need to post more offense to stay ahead of Benson and others.
36 LW Tyler Benson. $808,333 this and next season, then RFA. Stunning passes are his calling card and Benson’s creativity is going to get him chances and soon. He starts at the top of the AHL roster, but with Khaira and Lucic ahead of him, I can see a skill line job available very soon.
37 LW Joe Gambardella. $700,000 times two and then UFA. I believe he has a chance to make the big club out of camp, depending on Benson’s situation. Great forechecker, Tippett will value it.
38 LW Nolan Vesey. $817,500 this season and then RFA. One of the ‘small c’ curious moves made by Peter Chiarelli, Vesey is not a productive AHL player.
39 LW Ostap Safin. $775,000 entry deal starts in the fall. Injuries completely derailed his season and may have a major impact on his career. There’s concern here.
40 RW Sam Gagner. $3.15 million this season, then UFA. Per 82 games during his NHL career, Gagner scores 16 goals and 46 points. Edmonton needs all of that from him this year.
41 RW Alex Chiasson. $2.15 million times two. He scored 22 and cashed on a two-year deal. I think 12-15 is a reasonable bet for goals and he can play up and down the lineup.
42 RW Zack Kassian. $1.95 million this season and then UFA. Chiasson’s signing may impact his future with the Oilers, but right now he’s penciled in on the McDavid line.
43 RW Markus Granlund. $1.3 million and then UFA. He can play all forward positions, I listed him here due to Puljujarvi’s uncertainty. Impressive utility.
44 RW Tomas Jurco. $750,000 this season and then UFA. He has a compelling resume and could be the surprise of a quiet free agent summer. Jurco’s skills are enough to get him a job on either wing if he shows well.
45 RW Jesse Puljujarvi. RFA. His future with the team remains up in the air, but if he does sign there will be plenty of room for him.
46 RW Cooper Marody. $925,000 this year and next year, then RFA. He doesn’t get much chatter but Marody is the most obviously talented of the minor leaguers. Can make it at center or on the wing.
47 RW Kailer Yamamoto. $894,166 this year and next year then RFA. He has enough talent to rise quickly on this list, and I don’t buy the idea more time is needed. That said, he needs to show he can score goals in the NHL.
48 RW Patrick Russell. $700,000 and then UFA. He has some speed issues, but brings a rugged style and is a PK scoring machine in the AHL.
49 RW Kirill Maksimov. $775,000 entry deal starts in the fall. Scorer in junior, if he connects early and often look for him to move up the depth chart quickly. Based on reports, I think he may take a little time to learn playing away from the puck.
For reference, Ehlers is at 4.9 WAR and 26.7 GAR over the past 3 seasons.
Ehlers
16-17: 1.2 and 6.2
17-18: 2.5 and 13.8
18-19: 1.2 and 6.7
Zucker
16-17: 4.3 and 22.5
17-18: 3.1 and 17.2
18-19: 1.3 and 7.3
Zucker’s worst season is still better than 2 of 3 Ehlers seasons, although age is on the Jets’ forward’s side. If acquisition cost was equal I’d be torn, but that is unlikely to be the case.
Thoughts?
Just looking at Evolving Hockey’s database… sorted by WAR over the past 3 years combined, Zucker is 10th in the league at 8.7 – ahead of Crosby (8.6), Draisaitl (7.9) and Taylor Hall (7.7). Zucker had a relatively poor season last year and still posted 1.3 WAR and 7.3 GAR, similar numbers to Nugent-Hopkins who posted 1.4 WAR and 7.9 GAR. Is this guy really available?
That’s a valid point, although it still was an overpay at the time. I think Drai getting such a large contract Really changed the market. A rising tide floats all boats or whatever
Agreed
Looks like he has signed with the Stavanger Oilers in Norway haha
Lowetide,
Regardless of how it turns out, Holland has handled this expertly, let Jesse and his agent look like idiots trying to win a battle in the press.
I’d doubt there’s a path back without some serious humble pie.
Travis’s brother? We’re still in the lesser brother or son or cousin business it seems.
Who the heck is Nolan Zajac?
A lot of straw men getting beaten in this thread re: Nurse and his phantom $7M contract. If he gets that money next year it’ll be because he’s worth it given on-ice play and market conditions at the time. He won’t if he isn’t.
And if he gets “overpaid” by whatever definition you place on the word, at least we’ll be “overpaying” a player for his prime years rather than his decline years. Many here (including me) thought that Draisaitl’s deal was an overpay based on comps at the time, now look where we are!
He didn’t sign either of Manning or Gagner. They were acquired in trades, remember?
The Manning trade actually saved $100k on the cap while the Gagner trade dinged the cap by $50k – both negligible. Besides, these trades happened mid-season (December 30, February 16) so they had ZERO impact on the Nurse contract.
Hell no…
I’ll be the 50th man. My stick is ready with my curve all taped. I was told the paperwork is in the mail.
Well that might be a reasonable assumption…until he signed Koskinen & Manning & Gagner.
But this possibility has nothing to do with whether he should count on the 50 man list. Neither does your scenario of also not counting other free agents we have no current rights to, it has nothing to do with JPs status on the team.
Think of it this way: The Oilers have offered JP a contract (qualifying offer). As far as I know they can not rescind this offer, and JP has until December 1st to sign it or negotiate a better deal. Until that date, the Oilers cannot get up to 50 players because if JP signs the offer, they will be over the limit. They can’t say “well the chances were really slim so we signed a 50th player anyway. We didn’t expect him to sign!”.
Until Dec 1 he takes up a spot, they can’t take it back now. After that date, your argument has more merit
This outrage definitely meets barn fight criteria, but LT agrees with you, so I’m just going to quietly slink out the back.
Completely reasonable to flag double album status. Caught in the crushing grip of reason, I must concede the point. No barn fight for you either-arm wrestle?
So I was going down the interwebs, reliving the GlenX non-signing, and I ran across some old posts which were complaining how bad Katz’s Oilers were doing since he took over in 2008. The articles complained how “woe is us, the Oilers have been the worst overall team for 5 years”. I started building a spreadsheet to compare 2008-2009 to 2018-2019.. it’s taking time but I completed the Canadian teams…
TEAM – (AVG. PTS / SEASON*)
Calgary – 89.1 pts
Edmonton – 74.4 pts <– dead last with a bullet
Montreal – 93.1 pts
Ottawa – 85.4 pts
Toronto – 85.3 pts
Vancouver – 92.2 pts
Winnipeg** – 93 pts
* I pro-rated the 2012-2013 season points to 82 games
** I included only the Winnipeg games after the move from Atlanta
What happens if we cherry-pick to include only the "McDavid Years" (incidentally, the "Chia Years" depending on how you look at it)?
Calgary – 90.5 pts
Edmonton – 82.5 pts <– we're not last… whee!!
Montreal – 88 pts
Ottawa – 78.5 pts <– really bad for the last 2 seasons
Toronto – 92.3 pts
Vancouver – 74.5 pts <– rebuilding, and did have more points than us last year
Winnipeg – 95 pts
So, we're 3rd last instead of dead last by a lot (for the Canadian teams)… progress!? :\
Seriously, I’m pretty sure this is a music blog with hockey references.
Well said! Love London Calling.
Accordingly, no barn fight for you, maybe a staring contest. Fair?
It’s so weird that you don’t care about music.
You’ll probably be banned for this, but well done nonetheless!
Come on, man: Beggar’s Banquet.
I shouldn’t even have to tell you.
In a sense I agree. I thought you were stating he had earned 7 mill with his play, which I disagree with.
My mistake
Some people call it the Gretzky Trade. Some call it the Gretzky Sale. Both are right. Isn’t that weird?
He could have been signed long term for 5.5 to 6 million which he would be full value for. With salaries escalating he may very well get 7 million on his next contract. Worth and or value is determined by the market and not by what the fans think a player may or may not be worth.
*punches wall
That STILL kills me. What… management was so intent on chasing after a big whale that nobody could offer Glencross a contract? Just a month or so earlier, I remember seeing an advert for the Oilers in the newspaper, I believe with the caption “We’re building something special”, and an Oiler clearly celebrating on the ice after just scoring. The Oiler? GlenX. GAWWWWD!
*spits
Tempest in a Lowetide Teapot Summer 2019
Also, was Curtis Glencross worth $1.2MM in July 2008?
Team Doesn’t Count
It was recently I think when Lowetide wrote something along the lines of the Oilers always badmouth the previous guy (Lowetide… I hope I’m not mischaracterizing your comment).
In any case, Chiarelli is the first guy who really seems to deserve all of the trashing that people can dish out. He literally did the worst job possible in terms of cap management and team construction.
Chia didn’t have enough cap space because he signed Koskinen for too much $$$. Man, that guy…
If he gets an offer sheet and accepts and the Oilers don’t match then, yes, we’ll get draft pick compensation – boom, no contract on the 50.
Yes, he’s 100% an asset but, until today, the chances he would take up a spot on the 50 was minute – even with today’s “news” I still think its pretty slim.
He could be traded for a contract on the 50 or he could be traded for a draft pick and/or a non-contract asset. THat’s no different than the 2020 1st round (or any other future) draft pick) – could be traded for a contract.
Anyways, I’m done talking about it. I stand by my position and I fully acknowledge its a minority opinion.
Not completely true. He initially had the money but chose to go a route that left him without the funds to sign nurse long term.
I thought that was for married couples.
Technically they could have used off-season LTIR on Sekera to create the cap space. It would have made last season even worse though as it would have reduced the amount of the LTIR cushion and made the season tougher to manage.
Hey all! Just curious to hear whether people think that Puljujarvi should count toward the 50-man limit or not? Thanks in advance!
Except there is almost no chance that he just accepts the QO – even if he does do a 180 and agrees to play for the Oilers, he’s highly unlikely to sign his QO and will be looking for $1.2M plus I would think. There is almost always a pedigree bump for this type of player even if really he hasn’t earned it.
I don’t like the Myers deal at all. Ferland is okay. Another guy that didn’t score in something like his last 25 games. The biggest concern I would have with the Canucks is the volume of signings. Ferland, Myers, Jordie Benn and Edler might really bite them in the ass. Each individual signing isn’t awful, but when you put them altogether it could be big trouble. Add this to the Beagle, Schaller and Roussel signings last year, and it really doesn’t look good.
AAV and cap hit will always be equal, well, subject to performance bonuses vesting but that is calculated at the end of the season.
But the Sheehan, Lindberg, Boyle examples aren’t really the same though, because I thought if Jesse rejects the Oilers offer and another team makes an offer and Jesse accepts, the Oilers get compensation, don’t they?
Seems like even if he doesn’t have a contract he is still technically an asset and imo, could be included on LT’s list because he could play, or yield assets or worst case scenario, decline the offer, not get offeres by any team and not play in the NHL and he would DEFINITELY be removed from the list when that time comes.
But I could totally have gotten all of that wrong because I know jack shit about contracts.
Chia had no choice. He didn’t have enuf cap space to sign Nurse long term. I think everyone, including the GM, knew the bridge deal would bite them in the ass.
The difference is that the Oilers have committed a spot to JP until he chooses to sign or reject their offer,until that happens he is part of the list. The threat to go back Finland sounds more and more like smoke screen to try and force Holland’s hand,and he’s calling the bluff.
Nit64,
Not much more Old Dutch could have done, really.
JP and his agent really shat the bed on this one, from what I can see.
This back pedalling is marvellous.
Hope to see him skate for us this year and start hitting stride. Maybe all he really needed was a chip on his shoulder to unlock all that potential.
Lowetide,
All good. I wasn’t sure if it was something like a disparity between the AAV or salary or cap hit kind of thing.
There are folks he did not get along with and his later coaching style was abrasive.
Brett Hull was an ass as well. Didn’t even make the team in North Shore and they played him on defence 5 minutes a night after paying his 30,000 membership fee.
To say that everyone hates a man is factually incorrect. I say again, There are hundreds of players and families who have nothing but great things to say.
Edit: and calling a man a “fat prick” is just plain poor taste.
Lehto was used to working with “pushover Pete” here in Oilerland. Thought he could simply continue to get his demands met. Maybe now he is realizing there is a new sheriff in town…
This is another narrative that does not seem to hold much weight. Chiarelli wouldn’t be the one promising or pushing for 40 games and if the agent felt his client was not ready for the NHL he would not have accepted the 40 games.
Another speculation of yours presented as fact. A nasty habit.
I would love if Jesse signed a reasonable one year deal and Tippett does what he says he does “put players in a position to succeed and maximize their skills” which would include, I assume, consistent 5 on 5 minutes, somewhere in the top 9 with consistent lineamtes.
List of 5 Guys drafted with the number they were drafted at. Some played here.
1. Nail Yakupov
2. Andrei Zyuzin
3. Cam Barker
4. JP/Griffin Reinhart
Don’t know Kenny very well. Not a chance that first things he’s going to do is post a kick me sign for every GM. Maybe some other year he does player he’s worked with a solid, but unless he intends to be run over by every GM in the league like Chia was why would he start out with a fire sale?
If there’s an error, it’s on my end.
You are wrong.
It’s been widely reported in Vancouver media.
Lowetide,
Also curious about the disparity between CapFriendly’s salary values and what you have listed in the post from earlier today, if you have a moment:
BornInAGretzkyJersey,