Since Ken Holland entered the halls of power at Rogers Place, he’s done what he said he would do and “the plan” is coming into view. I have returned to this Holland interview by Daniel Nugent-Bowman many times over these last weeks, it’s basically a road map for all that has happened in the weeks since the conversation.
Holland told Daniel he thought 97, 29 and 93 were part of the top-six forwards, otherwise you’re wasting someone. He said Tyler Benson played “really good” in Bakersfield but mentioned it was a small sample.
He said he wanted to fix the bottom six forwards and find value contracts.
When the conversation stopped at wingers, Holland said you needed eight and that the team had six: Draisaitl, Kassian, Khaira, Gagner, Lucic and the newly acquired Joakim Nygard.
Since then, he added Alex Chiasson, Markus Granlund, Tomas Jurco, Josh Archibald and traded Lucic for James Neal. That’s 10, make it 11 with Benson, 12 with Jesse Puljujarvi. Someone is heading out of town. Who?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- New Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- New Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- New Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
- New Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
- Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
- Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
RIESEN TO BELIEVE: THE WINGERS
Leon Draisaitl: The big man is now 23, and has improved in each of his four seasons in the NHL. He’ll have a hard time topping last year’s 50 goals, but he’s averaging 29 goals per 82 games so the Oilers can count on 30+ goals if he’s healthy. I’ll probably have him 37-40 in RE. Role: No. 1 LW.
James Neal: He turns 32 in September and I think 15-20 goals is a reasonable estimate. If he grabs a job on the McDavid line that projection is going to be low, but we’re miles to go on the subject. Does he play LW or RW? Oilers need is greater on the left. Role: No. 2 LW.
Zack Kassian: He’s 28 and his 15 goals one year ago are a career high. Showed well on McDavid’s line for a time and may start there next season. Oilers would be wise to groom a replacement, someone with more skill. Has scored 10 goals per 82 games since coming to Edmonton, the Lucic trade probably secures his top-six role to start the season (Oilers will want some toughness). Role: No. 1 RW.
Alex Chiasson scored 22 last season but that’s an outlier. If he stays on the No. 1 power play, he’s probably capable of 13-16 goals this coming season. Chiasson doesn’t take a lot of penalties but does play a rugged game. The Lucic trade may benefit him as well. Role: No. 2 RW.
Markus Granlund is best suited (imo) to a two-way role on the third line, and the Neal trade takes him out of contention for a top-six role. Granlund’s possession numbers in Vancouver were good but he’ll likely play a more prominent role in Edmonton. As Tippett likes to shuffle, we’ll see Granlund at center, too. Per 82 games over the last three seasons, Granlund has averaged 16 goals. He could surprise. Role: No. 3 LW.
Josh Archibald was an astute signing by Holland, he brings skill and abandon to every shift. I think he’ll slide up and down the lineup and he appears prone to hot and cold in scoring. Averaging 13.5 goals per 82 games so far in his NHL career. Role: No. 3 RW.
Jujhar Khaira should see his stock rise a little now that Lucic is gone. Khaira has a mean streak and is strong strong strong, so he could see time on prominent lines during the year. Averaging 8 goals per 82 games. Role: No. 4 LW.
Sam Gagner played well down the stretch for the Oilers and should have a significant role on the club in 2019-20. If he gets power-play time we could see a handsome number, I see him in a depth role with several trips up the depth chart at five-on-five (Sam, like James Neal, is prone to giving up some the other way). On a team without a dominant RW, Gagner could surprise. The Oilers will likely move him to a skill line from time to time. In his last three seasons, he has scored 18 goals per 82 games. Role: No. 4 RW.
Joakim Nygard is a fast train, and that’s his biggest advantage against the competition this fall. Neal’s acquisition offers more of a roadblock than Lucic would have, but the team needs fast wheels and Nygard has speed on his resume. No. 13-14 forward.
Tomas Jurco has always been an intriguing size/speed winger, but he has scored nine goals per 82 games during his NHL career. Like Nygard, he’s a player who brings something the Oilers need (speed) but it’s going to be difficult for him to win a roster spot. Role: No. 13-14 forward.
Tyler Benson is in a fascinating spot, because he’s likely to be the first forward Holland will have to make room for during his time in Edmonton. The question is when? The addition of Neal isn’t likely to be a major factor in my opinion, if Benson is ready he’ll play. Role: No. 3 LW or Bakersfield.
Cooper Marody is a forgotten name so far this summer but as we head toward training camp and preseason I expect we’ll hear more about him. Marody has enough pure skill to play on an NHL skill line, likely on the wing. Role: Bakersfield.
Jesse Puljujarvi is the one roster hopeful on the wing who appears to be boxed out. The acquisition of Josh Archibald gives RW enough depth to run without the big Finn. I expect he’ll be traded. Role: None.
WHAT’S NEXT?
There are moves Ken Holland can make, including a free-agent signing (still need a No. 3 center). The addition of Neal allows one to dream, perhaps Jean-Gabriel Pageau is the target (instead of Riley Sheahan).
John Marino’s rights are an asset Holland can move, there are possibilities before fall.
I’m not saying that EP’s contract will be hard to negotiate, in fact, it could be very easy – I’m saying its likely to be higher than $9.5M and, actually, materially higher than $9.5M.
If he’s healthy and puts up 100 points this year (or close thereto), he will get paid (and Vancouver will likely want to lock it in a year early).
Pettersson’s contract shouldn’t be hard to negotiate. It will be one or two years from now after many more 2nd contracts for elite players have been signed, and stilled capped by McDavid.
This year will be the hardest year as there are a bunch of elite players looking for 2nd contracts and a still undefined salary marker for them. Once this year is over, it should become fairly easy for a few years.
Sure, good intel on Pettersson the person – at the same time, when it comes to contract negotiation, very few don’t take the most they can get – these are usually left in the hands of the agent (for the most part) and, assuming Pettersson does prove to be an elite player through his ELC, I simply don’t see him at $9.5M.
Sure – nothing you said can be disagreed with.
At the same time, I watched alot of Condors last year (as did you), and that is my position on the d-men.
Bear may be valued higher due to the right shot but I have him lower based on the fact that he still struggles with things in the AHL that caused him to get absolutely caved in his NHL cup of coffee. I don’t see progression in his skating or his ability to defend speed off the rush or deal with speed on puck retrievals. I still see him struggle with board battles in the defensive zone – opposite of Lagesson on this one.
Yes, his GF% was sparkling this past year but I believe the his deficiencies were masked a bit because the Condors were so dominant for the last 3/5 of the year that they were rarely in the defensive zone and defending – possession monsters.
Bears’ shot is an absolute weapon though and I like the person – I’m rooting for him,
Based on what I’ve heard about Pettersson as a person and where he comes from I doubt he’ll push for the biggest possible paycheck. People of course change with NHL fame and fortune but my guess is that we and the rest of the NHL outside of Vancouver will hate his deal.
I would also like to go on the record as astounded that Holland managed to trade Lucic for a potentially useful piece. It completely changes the calculation on what this roster could achieve. If any of the locker room stuff is true it is an even more incredible win. When also considering that we have enough viable bodies to not be talking about needing Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. Just wow.
The defence is an interesting issue since there are so many moving parts and so much uncertainty. Russell can play any of the open positions, but the one he should play is oversubscribed already (3LD).
So, 2RD remains a hole unless Benning can step up full time. I think he has the skill to do it, but not the durability for 20+ minutes per night. Russell should not play here, though he probably will.
As LT points out, it is not clear what order our unestablished defenders should come up. Moreover, while we have lots of LD bubbling under, we now have no veteran mentor for them on the third pair. Russell should definitely not mentor the kids from 3RD, as he does not play a … structured … style, shall we say.
This uncertainty makes injuries really scary, as we really only have 3 top-4 defencemen to begin with and Klefbom injuries have already cost us seasons due to lack of cover. So, if opening night is:
Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Russell
Jones – Benning
Who eats the minutes when a top-4 goes down? We need these rookies to be ready to move up, as we have no veteran cover. If we lose Klefbom and Benning, for example, we are looking at:
Nurse – Larsson
Jones – Russell
Lagesson – Persson
That is raw and small to say the least. For the record, from the beginning I would run:
Nurse – Larsson (all the DZ starts)
Klefbom – Benning (all the OZ starts)
Lagesson – Persson (zone neutral, weak competition minutes)
Russell as seventh D on the bench (fill in to give a rest when needed all over the line up)
As I’ve mentioned, I would run the centers on their own lines with balanced ice time. With seven defencemen we would them then run 11 forwards and give McDavid or Draisaitl the extra minutes between the fourth line wingers. Having seven D would make it easier to start two rookies and rest them when they need to reflect on teachable moments.
I was not in that conversation.
Must have been in the hospital for 90 days almost dying in first 45.?
Lagesson 67gm 8 evg 16 Eva 24evp +25
Bear 52 gm 2 evg 18 Eva 20 Evp +15
Jones 50gm 3evg 13 Eva 16 Evp +16
It is not even close right now.
LT:
Sekera said, “ he is an NHL player.”
Me thinks he might know best on here.
Holland stated great defensive depth is a nice problem to have
In on organization.
Pouzar:
When I discussed Gravel in the past.
I have stated what time he had at 2nd/3rd comp he was a top Hd dman before Edmonton.
Jones with
Gravel 1.80 Evga/60
Petrovic 2.68
Nurse 3.03
Benning 5.93
Larsson 4.85
The observation you failed to mention was
Jones was carried by Gravel facing 3rd & 4th comp.
Was well below average facing 3 rd with Petrovic
Got crushed facing 2nd/3rd with Benning.
Crushed with nurse.
Crushed playing with Larsson.
The key is what I remember is destroyed to his side.
A whole bunch of suck with everyone but Gravel.
The crushed with Larsson facing 1st is fair.
But good with lesser is a uniquely structured narative by avoiding the suck with Petrovic, Nurse, Benning.
Jones Did show some strong defensive development this year in Bakersfield.
But he was not the offensive player Lagesson was.
Jones and Lagesson will not get PP time in edmonton.
Jones (21 yr ssn) 50 gm 3 evg 13 Eva 16 Evp +16
Lagesson (22 yr ssn) 67gm 8 evg 16 Eva 24 Evp +25
Bear (21yr ssn) 52gm 2 evg 18 Eva 20 Evp +15
Now remember Holland says not ready till 23-24 yr.
Only Lagesson will be 23.
If jones crushes it in last 2 preseason games, maybe he gets a try.
Lagesson fits all Holland’s criteria.
– 23 yr old
– superior even offence.
– evg scoring threat as 4 th option.
– superior defensive skill.
Sekera said it “ he is a NHL player.”
Holland said the ” Narative from around the team was Sekera was the teaching supportive professional.
He had a couple years of tough injuries.
We have players coming up who need a chance from AHL lagesson, & coming from Sweden Persson.
Jones ah Bear, ……….
Seems clear to me.
If Lagesson crash & burns then maybe we see some one else.
You got to see how good he is by playing him with Larsson & Russell in pre season.
Jones & Bear need another year in AHL to see if they can get the even & def results Lagesson had this year.
I had it Chorney Petry and then Wild. Chorney was the highest pick and the most famous prospect of the three.
In the Petry/Chorney/Wild days, who did you think had the inside track?
Thanks for sharing! I’ll keep that in mind
I’ve mentioned this before, but defensemen will break your heart. Things are never what the appear to be, injuries derail careers and luck is a gigantic part of who gets through. I don’t think there’s any real way to tell who of the three will have the best career. We do know that Jones was ahead of the curve when we last left the conversation. Other than that, we don’t know.
If Lucic the Untradeable can be traded, anything is possible.
You’re not getting Buchnevich.
Ricki, honest question, do you watch the games?
I encourage you to differentiate Jones’ stats from when he was third pairing and when he was moved up the lineup to play top pairing minutes with Larsson.
He sawed off the opposition in his 3rd pairing minutes with Gravel and the entirety of that minus was up the lineup in top pairing minutes.
Bear got caved in 3rd pairing minutes in his cup of coffee and still struggles at the AHL level with what he struggled with at the NHL level.
Lagesson and Jones are both two tiers ahead of Bear.
YKOil,
No offense to you, but at some point, we all collectively have to just get over it and look at what the team is and move on…
Hall… Barzal… Reinhart.. cap space… Lucic salary retention… Eberle… Strome… Spooner… Tkachuk…Manning… the third rounder we gave up for Petrovic… Sekera buyout… JP trade request… Nail Yakupov… unicorns…Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray…
There was a lot of bleeding.
Eisenhower, vaccine, England’s got a new queen
Marciano, Liberace, Santayana goodbye.
It’s time to get over it and move forward.
I like the idea of a Boone Jenner for JP trade. Columbus GM might believe they can unlock JP. If correct it would give them a star moving forward. Either way it would almost guarantee a higher draft choice forColumbus in 2020. Boone Jenner would give the Oil an experienced established centre to work with their less experienced younger players coming up, ie Benson, Maksimov etc.
rickithebear,
“The overall, just the quickness and the puck-moving from out of your own zone, how do you improve that as a group?” asked TSN’s Jason Gregor, as shared in the Oilers’ official video of the event. “When your team struggles it seems you’re struggling moving the puck quickly up-ice.”
“I don’t see us struggling to move it quickly,” Hitchcock said in mild correction. “I see us struggling to use the middle of the ice, Jason.”
Hitchcock has the rare ability in the moment to take a question at a news conference and turn it into a seminar on how the game of hockey is played. It’s part of the reason people like me tend to love listening to him talk. And here he gave Gregor a detailed yet easily understandable answer.
“If you look at any teams that are quick transition, they find the middle of the ice and they’re not afraid to,” he said. “There’s a risk and a dynamic to play that way, but any of the successful teams use the middle of the ice way more than they use the boards. You can’t be a good transition team if you just keep putting it on the boards. You end up chipping it out and chasing it, you don’t end up with possession metrics at all. You can’t be afraid to use the middle of the ice on your exits.
“Like I said, there’s a risk to playing that way, but it’s the only way. If you look at all the good teams, that’s the way they play. They use that option quite a bit.”
https://theathletic.com/882325/2019/03/22/willis-ken-hitchcock-knows-why-edmonton-has-trouble-exiting-its-zone-but-lacks-the-players-to-fix-it/
Just want to thank Peter Chiarelli for leaving the Oilers with a Cap situation so screwed that the team will not be able to capitalize on one of the best off-load off-seasons ever.
That Rangers and Golden Knights are over the Cap already and the Jets just signed Pionk for $3m a year for 2 years – so they will be ther esoon enough; three teams in Cap hell.
A better managed team, thinking about the Oilers, would be in a position to pick up a player like Buchnevich (Rangers) or Gusev (G. Knights) or Copp (Jets) but, thankfully, you made sure we didn’t have to think about that sort of thing. We have LOTS of dead Cap space and our new GM had to spend an entire off-season playing the hockey management equivalent of small ball just to get the team to some form of equilibrium.
For making sure this team could not get better quicker, you have my thanks Mr. Chiarelli. Well done sir!
——-
Hrmmm… I thought I was getting over it… guess not. May take a while.
Under the radar gem from young Willis.
https://theathletic.com/1084282/2019/07/19/which-oilers-defencemen-can-make-an-outlet-pass/
That’s gold, Jerry. Gold!
“We need someone who can retrieve pucks and can transport the puck through the neutral zone,” Chiarelli said after signing Kris Russell. “Just a side note on analytics with regard to Kris: He was second in the league as far as clean entries into the offensive zone and the neutral zone, whether it’s passing or skating, second in the league. That’s not in conventional analytics that is just kind of derivative of Corsi, that’s in our own program that we have and a few other teams have it. Second in the league.”
The wiggle-room there comes from the word “clean,” which may also refer to chip-outs and dump-outs. Russell has his good points, but the idea that he’s the second-best passer in the league was and is patently absurd.
Sznajder’s data paints him as being well back of Larsson: below-average in terms of total exits with possession and well below-average in terms of percentage of exits with possession and in terms of entries into the offensive zone.
I am just 6:29 min into watching Holland’s free agency presser from 2 weeks ago.
Gregor stated (4:54) you outlined your plan with D and said you are happy with them.
Gregor (5:11) asked if he thought Persson Benning Jones moving to off side for improved passing.
Holland, “We will ask that question in training camp.”
(5:41)Holland, we have Smourukov, Bouchard, Broberg, young Dmen who are going to need some time.
( that reads no NHL for those 3)
(5:50) Holland: we got some dmen in Bakersfield Lagesson & we, Persson obviously is coming over from Sweden.( these were the first 2 to come to mind 1 AHL, the Holland differentiates to 1SHL)
(5:56) Holland: YOU got jones, Ah Bear, ….. might have missed somebody. ( players secondary in his mind as he starts to rename AHL players.)
When he says “YOU” those are players media mentioned.
We saw who was on Holland’s mind at 5:50.
(6:01) they are players who can compete for positions.
In Holland’s mind:
Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Russell
Lagesson – Benning
Manning – Persson
Maybe the brutal evga dmen given a chance in NHL who the Edmonton media keeps mentioning
Bear 18 gm -11
Jones 17gm -9
Must Have Holland questioning if Edmonton media has any clue what a Dman is.
( my narative)
Supporting evidence.
I know I think about Defence the same way Holland does.
Same Points from Holland
Defence first
then transition pass to forwards. (Get the better off players the puck)
Follow up with 4th & 5th options in OZ. (All 5 attacking)
But never abandoning defence of free path to HD area while attacking. ( be mindful of primary duty)
I am one happy Camper!
Now to continue watching from 6:29 on.
They’re working on Boeser now…last I heard is 6 years at $7.5 …but not a done deal.
Pettterson is an unknown until he plays a full season.
We’ll see.
It would be if the difference in value of what they could gain from Vegas is greater than the player that they would lose to Seattle.
If Pettersson stays healthy next year and builds on his rookie performance, I think we are talking well north of $9.5M and Boeser may require that $7.5M for a bridge right now.
We’ll see in the next bit on Boeser and in a year on Pettersson.
At the time they’ll have to sign them both players will get way more than those projected AAVs, based on current history and trends. Unless Vancouver management suddenly become magical negotiators.
Why would teams do that, and then lose other players anyway, to Seattle?
Hopefully they’ve learned from the stupidity of the last Expansion Draft.
I would guess Petterson at $9.5 and Boeser at $7.5….they don’t think Demko is elite, just a solid prospect.
Nuge would likely play at wing on Horvats line.
Vegas is exempt from the Seattle expansion draft.
Man, they are going to be in a good seat to benefit from more side deals or to get some good players cheap. Other teams will think, well, better to get a draft pick from Vegas than lose the player to Seattle. Then, after the draft , they could keep players or trade players. They could harbour players during the draft.
They could also end up getting picks from Seattle to not do certain deals with other teams. Vegas being exempt could majorly mess this up for Seattle.
The reason you can create a WAR for baseball is it is a series of binary results that can be measured.
Very low resolution result analysis is required in baseball. To define WAR value.
Pitched ball
Crosses plate/ does not
Swing/ no swing
No swing at pitch
Strike/ ball
swung at ball
Miss/hit ball
Ball that makes to catcher
Caught/ not caught
Not caught ball
Pass ball/ wild pitch
Hit ball
In play / out of play
You can identify a series of binary outcomes with value affect on the % of nfluence to winning a game.
Being a multivariable mapper of Sequence of events (SOE) In game action.
You can end up with multiple permutation of SOE in Hockey resulting in a multivariable of outcomes.
With varying degrees of goal scoring & defending value.
Were as you see binary play after binary play in baseball.
Hockey involves the interaction of 3 diffrent positions in any GF and GA Sequence.
Dependent on a collection of multivariables to influence the outcome.
This is a theorem of my
that constantly gets supported when I run these silly little overall grades versus just 3D situation
+ve/-ve performance measures for the players relative to the identified population.
The concept of Something like Wins above replacement is not possible because of the resolution level required to analyze outcomes in Hockey.
You can get goal diff performance above situation average.
But you do not have like actions for situations for players by position.
WAR, GAR, % value are inaccurate numbers intended to make people feel like they are using analysis.
It is a constructed narative.
With no analytical value.
Go ahead and have angst over a % number posted by people I have constantly advised is generating inaccurate binary fluff.
Interesting only 4 of the bottom 15 lineblender teams made the playoffs.
Okay thanks.
Certainly more enjoyable excepting McDrai hilites!
I think fans find a way to rationalize things. Because their fans. Same thing happened with the Hall trade. Reaction early was vitriolic and then a bunch of rationalizations.
I just kringe thinking of splitting up the 3.24324 evg/60 pair
Cause that would be with Mcdavids 1464.8 EVTOI last year
a total of 24.413333 60min x 3.24324evg/60 = 79.18 evg + what ever the 3 fwd provides for the year.
But if Mcdavid and Drai are destined to play only around 900 EVTOI.
Based on my preliminary work
Chaisson 8evg – Draisaitl 5 evg 594 EVTOI 594/60 = 9.9
13/9.9 = 1.31 Cummulative
Draisaitl 8 evg – Kassian 8 evg; 360 EVTOI = 6.0 60 min segments
16/6 = 2.67 evg/60
This is reflective of Mcdavid with them.
Chaisson 4 evg – RNH 3 evg; 315.3 EVTOI = 5.255 60 min segments
7/5.255 = 1.33 evg/60
Khaira 1 evg – RNH 4 evg; 185.1 EVTOI = 3.085 segments
5/3.085 = 1.62 evg/60
11-12 to 13-14
RNH 1evg – gagner 4 evg; 144.05 EVTOI = 2.401 segments
5/2.401 = 2.08 evg/60
When I look at RNH jointly best evg production.
Since 11-12 besides Draisaitl, Mcdavid,
Eberle, Hall, Pouliot, lucic, and Kassian is were he gets It.
Looking at granlund & Gagner they must never play together.
I would love to find out how much archibald, Granlund, jurco, Nygaard Benefit from having RNH as their center.
Cause
Neal LW – Mcdavid C – xxx must be tried.
XXX – Draisaitl C – Kassian RW While reflective of Mcdavid provides a base that can be tried with new players.
But I would rather role Kassian with RNH and get new blood with them
So Mcdavid & RNH pairs make sense.
This is all true but it doesn’t change the fact that they likely have some massive bills coming up and with Pettersson and Hovat in the fold, likely aren’t looking for another $8M center.
If Pettersson is as good as we (they) think he is, we’re talking McDavid money. Boeser may get Drai money. Hughes is a bit of a wild card. They think Demko is elite.
That was my experience as well when I was working. If anything rich people are more attached to their money than the middle class. That’s one of the ways they got rich in the first place. 😉
Bulging Twine,
The .307 r^2 was the rank correlation of all 17/18 teams 5×5 line stability and their points rank at the end of the regular season. You can calculate it by ranking the numbers I list in one column and their points rank in another in excell and using the correlation function =CORR(column 1;column 2). I hope I did it right.
If it is such a strong driver of wins, then I need to figure out whether line stability is a cause or effect of winning…
Marody was the primary driver of the line but what Benson did was more impressive as he has a legit 20 year old rookie. Marody is about a year and a half older i believe – material at that stage of development.
Not to say Marody doesn’t work hard but every time I listed to Jay W. and Benson was brought up, Jay W. raved about his work not just on but off the ice – he is a student of the game but extremely hard working
I’m all about reconciliation but not in the context of a pump and dump.
If he does start the season as an Oiler and the player gets off to a decent (or better) start and has consistent minutes and linemates and is prodcuing, well, maybe he just might start having fun again and will want to stay.
If Jesse is productive in the top 6 or even on the 3rd line, that is super helpful and maybe the team is enjoying success – individual success plus team success = happiness going forward!
Katz came in saying he would spend. Now he has a gigantic investment revolving around the Oilers.
It’s a risky investment which is why we see it rarely. Many of you understand the details and surrounding financial implications better than I can, but I see the level and the dollars and have enough understanding of business to know he has a mandate to drive it forward or really negative financial turnout could happen – big risk, big reward.
There are lots of millions being spent and wasted. Such level of business is not for the faint of heart and it seems to me he’s not counting the dollars but seeing the big picture. And has made changes to move forward. This is positive and I’m loving it. It may not work out, but that is the way the process should go as far as I understand.
A couple more pieces and LTs picture!!
“If you mess with the bull you get the horns” Jesse’s big mouth agent better start kissing Holland’s ass or hope Holland finds the right deal.
Well, no.
Once Boeser is under contract,, they have no significant free agents signings to worry about until 21/22.
By that time, Sutter, Edler, Tanev, Markstrom, Baertsch, Pearson and Shaller all come off the cap freeing up almost $30 million in cap space.
If they find a way to get rid of the last year of Erikssons deal..that’s another $6million.
The ONE thing I am impressed with is I have not noticed anyone include Yammamoto on any of there mock lineup’s.
As much as we were all upset about KH ..one thing is for sure the younger players are really gonna have to earn it to make the team now.
Putting Yammer in the minors and not rushing him because of depth is a wonderful thing to see for a change..
For the record though I think Benson does make the opening lineup if he doesn’t get injured training and shows up with improved speed..
That’s probably true, however Holland has the luxury of time, while the Rangers(and others) need their cap problems resolved or their rosters tweaked
We’ll see what the next couple of weeks brings as the buyout windows close as the RFA’s in arbitration are resolved
My preference would be to bring back JP and find a role for him and frankly, that’s about all the cap space we have left anyway unless Kenny has something else up his sleeve
Amen!
If the HD area is were the greatest shot density occurs.
That the greatest open shot Density in the HD area is almost 100% driven by forwards.
(9-40% of shots faced are open shots)
The largest factor in entry rates is challenged transition passing & Fwd NZ traps.
So the largest driver of Corsi faced by Dmen is Fwd NZ performance & Coach bench change with or without pocession.
The GA rate is dictated
1. Corsi count Faced per forwards & coach choices.
2. By the open HD shot save% baseline per Corsi faced ( caused by coach & forwards) by a Dpair
3. The +ve/-ve performance by goalie relative to open HD shot save% baseline established by Dmen. From the Corsi the coach and forwards subject them to.
So when I look at a highly inaccurate GF% that does not even have the comman sense to take the first binary step & differentiate from forward driven GF (a goals driven differentiation) and Dmans- goalie driven GA (A per Corsi faced differentiation.
Pretending unlike performance differentiations Goals per pocession versus GA per corsi are bad enough.
But not to separate forwards (high% driver of GF per pocession) and Dmen and Goalies ( combination drivers of GA from in zone Corsi faced) when discussing goal diff is terrible.
I cringe how simplistic GF% is by not differentiating what position drives GF and What drives GA.
But not to understand that having the same GF% does not mean we are talking about the same +/- goal diff/60.( which is the true measure of goal diff)
I have shown examples of 4 players GF% with 4 diffrent GF/60 – GA/60 results
In talking about Benson and Marody in relation to making the team next season specifically, Stauffer was much more bullish on Benson than Marody. He said Marody needs to work on his body composition a little whereas Benson has put the work in. (This was on Dean Millard’s podcast).
Marody has other major interests outside of hockey. He just released a new single, “Behind Me”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPznwA3n0og
That’s pretty rare for a hockey player to be also pursuing a music career. I mean, there was, “Hockey Sock Rock”, and of course, “Forgive my Misconduct”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0UoRgYJTJs
🙂
But those are the only others I recall
Not at all saying that’s a bad thing
Let’s hope he has a great off season in the weight room
And I hope he has better moves than Phil Esposito
Truth!
Has this not been the best weekend for the Oilers and their fans in all of 2019 so far?!
My stated preference is to find a path to a Puljujarvi reconciliation and restablishing Jesse’s value with 20 games on McDavid’s wing.
To answer you question. YES:)
The problem at the moment is that as of today I don’t beleive Puljujarvi has enough value to return a Buchnevivh or an Eriksson-Ek. Perhpas after a McDavid pump, but not today, if those deals were available, I believe Holland would already have those deals done.