I followed drafts as a kid. I remember the 1971 draft and I anticipated the 1973 Amateur Draft. I didn’t do a mock draft (that I recall) but would have if it had occurred to me. We are all limited by the power of our imaginations.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
- Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
BEST DRAFTS, FIVE YEARS OUT
I rely heavily on games played, but if a team drafts three players who play a substantial role on a regular basis, that’s a strong draft. Edmonton has done it, just not enough since the turn of the century. Also, generational talents and impact forwards to the front of the line.
2015—Generational forward, 322 games. (Connor McDavid 287, Ethan Bear 18, Caleb Jones 17). McDavid’s draft is the only one in team history that can rival those magical drafts of 1979 and 1980, although 2015 probably doesn’t get 500 games in the first five years (one more year to go). It would be ridiculous to rank any draft year this century ahead of this one.
2010—Impact F, depth D, 425 games. (Taylor Hall 299, Martin Marincin 85, Tyler Pitlick 27, Brandon Davidson 12, Curtis Hamilton 1, Tyler Bunz 1). Taylor Hall was the first No. 1 overall pick in franchise history—incredible considering what has happened since. Brandon Davidson and Martin Marincin, along with Tyler Pitlick, teased and then emerged after the five year marker.
2011—Top 3F, Top 4D, Top 9F, 578 games. (Ryan Nugent Hopkins 313, Tobias Rieder 154, Oscar Klefbom 107, David Musil 4). A quality draft with a mighty head start, No. 1 overall and another player inside the first round. The Tobias Rieder pick was a strong moment for the scouts.
2014—Impact forward, 351 games. (Leon Draisaitl 351). MacT had two drafts and hit a home run when deciding on Draisaitl. The big man scored 50 goals in his draft+5 season, extremely rare in team history.
2001—Top 3F, backup goalie, 471 games (Ales Hemsky-275, Jussi Markkanen-128, Ales Pisa-53, Kari Haakana-13, Doug Lynch-2). Hemsky represented the best skill forward drafted by Edmonton and successfully brought to the NHL since Ryan Smyth in 1994.
2002—Top 6F, Top 6D, 440 games. (Jarret Stoll-286, Matt Greene-151, Mikko Luoma-3). A little misleading in that Stoll was a draft re-entry and technically belongs to the 2000 group. Greene and Stoll had long and productive careers. Unlike the 2010’s, both men were second rounders, top pick Jesse Niinimaki washed out.
2008—Top 6F, 250 games. (Jordan Eberle 195, Teemu Hartikainen 52, Phil Cornet-2, Johan Motin-1). Eberle took two years in junior and then played well from his rookie year. Hartikainen looked like a player, but could not survive all the management chaos in his time with Edmonton. They didn’t have their second or third-round picks.
2013—Top 4D, 300 games. (Darnell Nurse 197, Anton Slepyshev 102, Bogdan Yakimov 1). It took some time to get Nurse rolling, but his most recent seasons suggest the club drafted a top-4 defender. It would have been fab if Slepyshev had also made it.
2007—Top 6F, 447 games. (Sam Gagner 366, Linus Omark 65, Alex Plante-10, Riley Nash-5, Milan Kytnar-1). So much promise—three picks inside the top 21 overall—and so little to show for it. Gagner is now over 800 NHL games, but did not cover his draft bet. Nash took forever to arrive but is now at 477 NHL games.
2005—Top 9F, 339 games. (Andrew Cogliano-246, Danny Syvret-49, Taylor Chorney-44). Cogliano emerged as a solid player and has been a consistent performer over many years now. Chris VandeVelde, not listed here, arrived after the five-year window closed.
That’s 10, with the odd man out being 2003. Kyle Brodziak couldn’t save it from the seventh round. The 2016-19 draft also not listed, too soon to know.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a fantastic group of guests. Aaron Bronsteter from TSN will talk UFC 240 this weekend, and the growing excitement for the big event. Andy McNamara from TSN4Downs drops in at 11 to talk NFL, and at 11:25 it’s Gerry Moddejonge from Post Media to tee up the Eskimos game tonight.
Please refrain from making comments that imply expertise on why employment for women has increased over time. Surely there are some things out of our collective area of knowledge. Thanks.
Conflict Resolution. Pick a style and see which one works well for you. I pick Yield
Avoidance- read his last line or skip over, or avoid blogs where he hangs out completely, opt out of all two way hockey discussions
Competition- show me your stats, im smarter than you and ill show you
Compromise- let him continue posting, respect his opinion by agreeing to disagree
Yield – see him as a genius and see if he posts less inflamatory remarks
Collaboration- find a win plus win, take the guy out to lunch at his fav restaurant, hear some of his epic tales of love and life, come away a wiser petson with 1 less enemy to inflame you
leadfarmer,
ArmchairGM,
Cassandra,
Usually I just skip down to the last paragraph of the BEARS posts to see which poster he is calling an idiot this time to give me a chuckle.
The rest of it I find unreadable nonsense.
Works for me.
We can add selecting on the dependent variable as another basic social science error that Ricki commits.
Coding certain D as “rovers” when no such position exists couldn’t be more binary.
Sad to see you go, Leadfarmer. I used to get frustrated with Mr thebear’s posts too, until I stopped reading them – even if he is replying directly to me. This may not work / be an option for you, but it certainly has made a difference for me.
There are a few other posters who I sometimes skip over for one reason or another, but nobody that gets consistently ignored like Mr thebear. Although I wish him a full and speedy recovery.
leadfarmer,
Oh come on, Ricki’s quite warm and cuddly. His posts are just so big he doesn’t realize when he’s mauling other posters. I have time for a lot of his theories, though I think it’s important to remember that every idea is built on other people’s work and is only valuable when communicated properly, refined and accepted by the community.
Scungilli Slushy,
Do you have any idea how freely available the puck tracking data will be? It would create incredible innovation in player valuation and strategy if it was freely available and open source.
Don’t worry you will just be called an idiot
Followed by he’s been tracking bees for 20 years
Followed by a social justice warrior rant
Followed by the history of 2 ply toilet paper
I don’t get why LT allows him to treat his guests on here this way
The loudest voice in the room used to get pushed out by the smartest in the room in the past
But the smartest people have given up
Wood guy was getting called a plagiarist and rarely post and when he does he does not acknowledge this poster because of blatant attacks on him
Bruce will chime in one the outskirts but you can tell he doesn’t want to deal with this
I get called an idiot on a daily basis (I’m definitely not the smartest man in the room)
I’ve been coming here at least every day for 12 years
LT put me through residency, fellowship and first 5 years of practice
Today will be my last
Good luck to all
I understand why it didn’t hit the mainstream media…
But after Jujhar signed his extension this summer, he talked about training and hanging out with RNH and Gagner. Burnaby Nuge got hitched this summer and JK was there, along with Jultz, Ebs and Klefbom.
Unicorns…
McD-Kass (skill, speed and actual protection… watch the highlights)
Drai-Chai (numbers don’t lie)
Jujhar-RNH (toughest zone starts, friends, PK/saw off the comp 5v5)
Nygard-Haas (speed, skill and experience/maturity)
Conclusion: If Nuge and Jujhar lined up against every teams best line and came out 50/50… Drai and McD could destroy on different lines.
Rutger Hauer died this week.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/jul/25/rutger-hauer-obituary
First time I saw him was at the Varscona in “Soldier of Orange.”
This completely off topic.
I’m a lowtide/athletic junkie and growing up Cgy (born in Edm) has made my love for Oil an interesting journey.
Anyone have a stat on Lucic’s hits given/taken? I feel like Looch had a target on his back from day one of his contract with the Oilers. I do know he always at the top of the league for hits given….
I feel like the Flames are now that one team that everyone will want rough up. It’s hard to provide protection for the stars when you’re on the 3rd/4th line.
Ps. Anyone see that Kassian highlight package on the Oilers IG? Wow
rickithebear,
Firstly no, PDO is a dumb statistic simply by the basis of having a personal shooting% 20 and on-ice save% 80 is dissimilar to a 5% shooting and 95% because the skater’s effect on his own shooting percentage is stronger than their affect on a goalie yet both = 1 mutatis mutandis
evga seems to be far more variant than just FZ Trap, having two stay at home D (2-1) and whether they block shots (0% closed shot theory). ie most common forward linemates, outlet pass ability success/completion rate, partner’s ability
Can you definitively say that in the NHL that two rovers playing with each other have NEVER outscored two 2-1 defensemen when playing on the same pairs, accounting for linemates, zone starts, xSV%, etc.?
I do agree with some or most of what you say but calling something binary or multi-variate without a legitimate algorithm which produces a definitive number is meaningless to me. It is no different than your idea of constructivist narrative building because YOU are choosing the 5 variables but with no definitive proof they are the 5 variables WE should be looking at.
You say evga is a function of 5 variables but at what rate do all 5 affect evga. Home ice quality I am sure affects evga but at an unmeasurable (probably could) rate. You can have infinite variables but which one’s are statistically significant as the “academics” say.. that is up to actual algorithmic analysis and generation and the results therein not by narrative building.
Bill James had this chapter in one of his abstracts about commanding officers when he was doing military duty. It was weekends and summers, he was in the reserve. Anyway, whenever a new commander took over he would change the daily schedule and paint the mess hall a different color to change things up. It’s human nature, as you say.
Bull headed and attributing success to the wrong factors like having matured exceptional players.
The Oilers have exceptional players but the key ones aren’t mature as players yet, and also, the game has changed. It might have been a hack given nobody does it, if the situation suited. But it didn’t. That was the fail in judgement.
The Petry stupidity started the landslide of mistakes including the trading of Taylor Hall. Ego should not enter into the bargaining process. There is a fine line between hard bargaining and unfair bargaining. Cheap or unfair bargaining reaps its own rewards and they’re not pretty.
Why do these experienced coaches switch to man to man and stick with it after it continues to lead to negative results?
Calls from inside the house is my guess. Not getting the hoped results, looking for the answers, and coming up with the wrong problem as the issue to begin with.
Thus my comment about data as the answer to problems. It only lights up the room, you still have to find what you’re looking for with correct decisions.
It’s human condition that wreaks havoc across the board, not just hockey.
Ricki: Tell me what you mean by “multivariable” that academia is just finally catching on to.
Please, humor me and write out a short (3 sentence or less) definition of this new idea. Also, please avoid describing it imprecisely by listing comparisons or examples if you can.
From a recent thread, we were discussing man-to-man vs zone d.
Hitchcock and Mclellan both experienced coaches preferred the man-to-man d zone coverage.
There was a quote from an unnamed dman who cited the Blues struggling under Mike Yeo’s man-to-man d zone system before he was replaced but Berube who had implemented zone d coverage.
Funny how I found an article that suggested the Blues had success under Hitchcock with a zone d system then came unglued the following season when he implemented a man-to-man d zone system. He was fired and replaced by Mike Yeo who subsequently had success with a zone coverage system.
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/blues-get-big-results-from-small-changes-on-defense/article_12cc2fad-a2f0-50ff-8407-0ffe3da10c09.html
So basically, Hitch has success with zone d, switches to man-to-man d, it doesn’t work his team struggles then he gets fired from the Blues.
Mike Yeo is hired, he reverts back to zone d, the team has a modicum of success. Next season, he switches to man-to-man d, the teams struggles, bottom of the league and he gets fired.
Berube comes in, implements zone d, team makes the playoffs and wins the cup.
By several accounts man-to-man d zone coverage doesn’t work post lockout without clutch and grab, so what’s going on here?
I understand War as it relates to a perfect binary sport like Baseball.
The large factor influences are understood by everyone so marginal gains are the way you try to beat the other team on a seasonal basis.
Then they build a playoff system were you do not have to face a 5 man rotation base.
Throws all analytics out the window.
The teams with the 2 most elite pitchers has a high prob of moving thru in a series.
But to ignore 100% to 700% influences for marginal gains in hockey is a fools game.
Until everyone is playing like robots and have eliminated large margin factors.
What does a marginal gain tell you when large factors have scued any result.
Of coarse there is F1, F2, F3 Analysis.
But a move to a center based attack is still part of the equation in all even play.
Yup I do not know as much as you who has tracked the sides of attack of each player.
Not likening the level of vitriol I am directing over the last while.
Large factor influences have to be played same way by all.
To have marginal gains matter.
It is not baseball!
My apologies. I misread your post. This is what you said;
And I would add that if you want Russell to facilitate a trade at the deadline the best way to do that is to make it clear that staying with the Oilers will sewer any chance he has at a next contract because press box dmen do not command a lot of money come UFA season the following summer.
I just assumed this was an ultimatum by the GM. I’m still not sure what you meant then.
Russell will have a significant role on the D Corp unless traded. Maybe Holland and Tip are cagey enough for us to see our first pump and dump in decades!
Damn straight.
The fact that you did not list that evga is a function of
Fwd NZ trap, GA structure 2-1 or 1-1, and seperste Dpair and goalie performance.
Tells me you are being facetious.
Likely a fan of a PDO.
We can identify the 3-2-1 dmen and 3-1-1-1 dmen.
We know Nurse, Klefbom, Jones, Bear are 3-1-1-1
1-1 breakdown of 2-1 structure is 100% rovers cause until 2-1 structure is recovered.
We can look at a Corsi faced rates from our forwards.
All are big minute Dmen faced 56-59 CA/60
Not normal large variance that can occur.
We can adjust for faceoff zone start
Russell 45.2%
Larsson 46.2%
Nurse 46.9%
Sekera 46.9%
Gravel 48.4%
Klefbom 49.0%
Garrison 50.4%
Benning 50.7%
Manning 53.0%
We can adjust for bench change zone start with without puck.
On the fly starts/60 are indicated but not differentiated by with or without.
With a faceoff to on fly ratio for each dman
But no database I found differentiates with or without.
What we know from WOWY
Larsson & Russell are still able generate avg evga with rovers Klefbom & Nurse.
But Benning & others are unable to deal with rovers.
Also, the general market at that time is for players on expiring contracts, not those with a full year of (bloated) term left.
Good point. I think there is usually a market for veteran dmen at the the trade deadlne though. But you are right. That would make it more difficult.
Many love the story of young people with limited experience coming in hot with fresh big ideas and blowing everything up.
The thing is it rarely happens in established industry. The NHL isn’t some old dusty relic where everyone is a dinosaur and is 50 years out of date.
Even Vic Ferrari said he thought GMs knew what they were doing. He works for one now.
Yes this is a math blog as the host says, but it remains that data is a lens on the game, not the frame.
When teams are wrong it isn’t a data problem necessarily, all teams now do that, it’s a concept problem.
Chiarelli isn’t a dense man, he’s just not right in his philosophy. McLellan isn’t a bad coach, he’s made errors in managing people and strategy like Hitch. They can change, if they don’t then they’re dinosaurs.
For Dubas and Chayka, show me consistent high level success and I’ll buy the hype. We don’t know yet just like drafted players.
The game of hockey isn’t as big as trying to analyze world wide industry and national trends in business. A person like Holland or any correct thinking individual with decades of experience should be able to read the lay of the land pretty quickly and know who’s getting things done.
All of you who are good at your jobs can do this, why shouldn’t they be able? Data can give the fine grain insights into a team after the big picture is set. It’s a tool to delve deeper and refine. But it’s a tool, not the hand that wields it.
My instinct is those (which are few) that try to run teams by analytics as the primary decision maker won’t ultimately succeed, that isn’t Billy Bean at all.
NHL teams are not going be able to manage crunching puck tracking data. They won’t want to. Somebody’s going to make a pile doing that.
Exactly. There exists an incredibly obvious alternative hypothesis to his “facts” and not only does he not investigate it, it doesn’t even occur to him.
And his conclusion is so, so, wrong. It is more likely that it is harder for centers to score goals because they spend more of the game as F3, because they spend more of the game lower in the defensive zone.
Russell 3LD with a competent partner would be just fine and a solid fill in at 2LD.
The problem is everyone is LD, so it’s either rookies or him at RD.
Maybe we see a balance miracle still.
Players not being ideal is different than useless given no better option.
My current anxiety about next season mostly involves Persson making the team.
Gene: “Hey wait…Persson…that sounds just like the word ‘person’!” I can just swap the player name right in there where the word would go! Quinn’s gonna shit his pants!”.
Cassandra,
Well he doesn’t get that the reasons most top scorers are centers is not positional on the ice but because most top players are played at center at a young age to get them more involved at every point on the ice.
One of the ways coaches have used to get an offensive boost is opposite of bear theory
Example of this is Giroux moving to wing
Not only that but he has no idea how hockey is played. His “theorem” of the structural “advantage” of centers in scoring because they play in the middle of the ice might reflect table hockey but it doesn’t reflect actual hockey. In actual hockey there are no positions once you leave the defensive zone. The data is meaningless.
Moreover, I bet he is calculating his average per position based on how it is commonly listed which, as we all know, does not reflect where players actual line up on a shift by shift basis.
Finally, just the other day he admitted he had no idea what was meant by replacement player. Which means he does not understand the concept of marginal gains.
well done
Yes those teams without good analytic departments are behind the 8 ball. They’ll have to hire people to hire people.
Where as the teams that have analytic departments already established are already onto the next step of anticipating and preparing for the new data.
Mahe help guide a strong analytical future for the Oilers.
Ricki is king of binary thinking
Evgf for forwards 1 or 0
GA for defensemen 1 or 0
The most binary analysis on the blogosphere
I believe Carolina and Vegas belong in here as well. Seems lots of the moves Carolina has made have met the approval of the analytics community on twitter in the least
The thing about puck and player tracking is that it is going to push even well developed analytics departments to have to change their approach. The kind of big data that such tracking will create is going to require rooms full of programmers that are capable of creating algorithms for processing it in different ways. These people are in such great demand from many different sectors that it will be difficult for NHL teams that are not already connected to such networks to recruit them and give them the proper guidance.
godot10,
I agree that we probably need to start running two rookies in the starting six on opening night. I like the idea of dressing Russell as 7D in order to reduce the minutes played by those rookies, though. I think we can get by with 11F if we run the three centres with more balanced minutes and spotting them with the bottom two wingers.
I did find this from 2016
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/oilers-announce-changes-to-hockey-operations/c-890460
Do we know what the Oil have for analytics? There is nothing on their website.
Shayna from The Athletic has Justin Mahe as Manager of Hockey Analysis. Do we know anything about Justin Mahe? When he was hired? Anything?
At the same time, how is it possible to get a clean (or anywhere near clean) disposition of Russ next off-season without him playing games?
It is indeed gone and it is am amazing and wonderful thing.
Of course, its currently been replaced by another currently very ugly contract, however that contract is not nearly as ugly and not nearly as “clingy” (which is very important) and it actually has a chance to spruce itself up to a half pretty level.
20% at 5 on5
23.44% at 5 on 4
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v4&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=C&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
I don’t disagree – the main purpose of the draft is to acquire NHL players and NHL players that impact the lineup but there are secondary and tertiary purposes as well. There needs to be players competing for NHL jobs, even if they don’t make it, there needs to be players to fill out the AHL and ECHL teams and its important the AHL team have success.
If Phil Kemp signs a contract with the Oilers and plays 150 games in Bakersfield over the course of a few years and compete for a job with the Oilers and maybe get a cup of coffee – that have value to the organization.
Completely agree on the last line – as at the end of last year Lagesson and Jones are both well ahead of Bear as far as NHL readiness – hopefully Bear has had his deficiencies (defending speed on puck retrieval and off the rush and general board battles) and has been working on related areas this off-season.
Its imperative that the organization is risk-adverse with its most important prospect and allow Bouchard to get some regular top 4 non-sheltered minutes in the AHL even after he puts up 6 points in 4 preseason games and makes a few tantalizing passes. Unlike other years, there are actual legit options to allow that to happen.
Sean Tierney Retweeted
Michael Russo
@RussoHockey
·
Jul 22
With the #mnwild working toward refilling their analytics department, I’m hearing GM Paul Fenton has hired Hockey Canada’s Mat Sells. He did advanced pre-scout and analytics
I hope that is not referring to what I posted because that is not at all what I wrote.
I don’t like or hate Russel. 😉
I disagree that on ice deployment is decided by who is the best player though. I think on ice deployment should be decided by the best fit.
The idea isn’t to assemble the best players. The idea is to assemble the best team. Those two aren’t exactly the same thing imo.
I don’t imagine Russell not being in the lineup on game 1, subject to injury.
Trust me, I’m more excited about Jones and Persson and their puck moving and think that Lagesson could absolutely handle the 3LD (and would prove to be a plus 3LD in little time) but I think Tippett will have his veteran in the lineup even with his verbal re: time defending and moving the puck as 5 man units.