Do you ever wonder how many prospects should graduate to the NHL each season? Do you ever wonder what percentage of procured prospects make the grade? From 2010 through today, the Oilers are an interesting study in procurement.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
- Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
TURNING PRO, BY YEAR
2010 fall: Taylor Hall [562], Jordan Eberle [666], Magnus Paajarvi [467], Linus Omark [79], Teemu Hartikainen [52], Phil Cornet [2], Milan Kytnar [1], Jeff Petry [609], Chris VandeVelde [278]. Total: 2,716.
2011 fall: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [539], Anton Lander [215], Cameron Abney, Olivier Roy, Brandon Davidson [162], Tyler Pitlick [185], Curtis Hamilton [1], Ryan Martindale, Mark Arcobello [139]. Total: 1,241.
2012 fall: Nail Yakupov [350], Justin Schultz [436], Toni Rajala, Martin Marincin [201], Tyler Bunz [1], Kristians Pelss, Taylor Fedun [100]. Total: 1,088.
2013 fall: Oscar Klefbom [316], David Musil [4], Travis Ewanyk, Kale Kessy, Martin Gernat, Frans Tuohimaa, Andrew Miller [15]. Total: 335.
2014 fall: Leon Draisaitl [351], Iiro Pakarinen [134], Dillon Simpson [3], Kellen Jones, Mitchell Moroz, Jujhar Khaira [154], Jordan Oesterle [151], Laurent Brossoit [49], Bogdan Yakimov [1]. Total: 843.
2015 fall: Connor McDavid [287], Darnell Nurse [279], Anton Slepyshev [102], Josh Currie [21]. Total: 689.
The 2010 grad class had three first-round selections plus Jeff Petry graduating from college. That’s the kind of cluster the club badly needs from one of the more recent seasons.
2016 fall: Jesse Puljujarvi [139], Drake Caggiula [182], Matt Benning [205], Patrick Russell [6]. Total: 532.
2017 fall: Kailer Yamamoto [26], Ethan Bear [18], Caleb Jones [17], Joe Gambardella [15]. Total: 76.
2018 fall: Evan Bouchard [7], Cooper Marody [6].
Yeah, hiked in a k or so right off of FTR – perfect Cutthroat pools. Great sites for sure. Used to go out there 18 or so years ago before that campsite was flooded out.
Glovjuice,
Were you close to the FTR? I camped on the north ram early this year, multiple nice random camp sites there. The river looked incredible but was in flood.
Yeah, they are related but look very different. Rainbows fight more for sure. The North Ram Is unique in that the only fish there are Cutts. Epic, really. Love the fact that they are native to the west.
He is easy to overlook.?
I don’t think I ever caught a cutthroat trout. Just regular rainbow trout.
Six sweet Cutthroats landed at the North Ram River on Saturday. Could have fished harder and easily run our total up to 20. May never get this conversion rate again. Glorious, epic fish native to the west is the best.
I”ll qualify this with that the need for a RC that can play well in a role and win faceoffs is also a huge need. Could be Brodz or Gagner, maybe Marody, but these options are a stretch like 2RD.
There is no point signing Marleau, or any old guy for the Oilers.
Like 29 teams, the Oilers aren’t going to win the Cup this coming season.
There are actually now farm options and roster options for the positions needed. Non rushed. That will do as well as Marleau and most other older players.
The only position to me that remains a worry is 2RD. If Benning or Persson can’t make it happen there will be similar results to the D group as last year because Russell will have to play there, and he is serviceable, but that means weak to me.
In the existing players there are a half dozen that can be tried at bottom 6 C, and if Tip can’t get anyone going bottom 6ers are the easiest to find for Holland.
Unless a larger deal can be made I don’t expect much else to be done to start the season. Maybe a PTO but even that may not happen.
Partly because there is competition at most positions, partly because I think Holland will tell the players that everything is changed, so if it fails it’s on you.
What are your smart people’s thoughts on Michael stone?
How is his skating?
How has he healed from that blood clot?
Could he be a 2rd ?
Lately yes
But I think he has played C a bit in his career
Maybe like 12 years ago when he was still in his twenties;)
Just thinking if he would make good cover for 3C, potentially succeed at that position relative to other 3C and possibly be a bit of “insurance” on that position for part of the year
Gives cover in other areas too.
I wonder what he goes for if he doesn’t go back to SJS?
Certainly his play is declining but not horrible
Certainly at a major discount which is possible because of his buyout.
He’s signing on the coast where his 4 boys can surf with the California girls.
Isn’t he a winger?
Check the stats of above Centres mentioned their best years were 26 plus. Most real Centremen take longer to develop just like D.
When was the last time he played center? His most common linemates last year were Matthews and Kadri so I gather he generally played wing.
Marleau wasn’t awful last year – if his contract had a cap hit of $2M, not $6M, Leaf fans would have been satisfied with his performance. With that said, his performance did see a sharp decline from the previous season and, given he’s turning 40, I think its safe to think it was indeed a cliff.
I would take a flyer on Marleau hoping he can provide similar play as last year while hoping that there is not further decline.
Of course:
– it would have to be one-year for a 35 plus contract
– I would not count on him to play 3C or the top 6.
Jay W. certainly did a very fine job of putting the “real prospects” in a position to succeed but also using his veterans to help them along.
Up front, one could argue that the Joe G., Malone and P. Russell line was 1B to the Marody/Benson 1A and were invaluable.
On the back-end, Keegan Lowe and Ryan Stanton both played material roles as mentors and on the ice.
I also wonder, sometimes, how much of the “finally a coach that will play the prospects” is less of an organizational shift and more of a function of them finally having a number of “real prospects” on the team at the same time?
Also, kudos to Dave Manson.
Crosby’s peak was age 23-25.
Ovechkin’s peak was 22-24. He’s a shell of the player he was then.
Offensive players peak earlier than you think. Whether they play center or not is irrelevant. This is more or less undeniable.
How would Marleau look at 3C?
Spot shifts in top 6 on wing once in a while
Give Haas and Marody some games at 3C throughout the season to see how they would fit there on a more permanent basis? If one of them fits the bill Marleau could go top 6…?
Would 1.5×1 do it?
I know most expect him to go back to SJS, but maybe that doesn’t happen. Then what…??
He can still play in this league.
Hmmmm……
Pre Cancer I did 3yr looks forward.
I learned from LT and many on here.
Their can be a lot of change if you are not core happy.
The veteran double digit evg core this year is superior to the 5 fwd deep team last year.
Draisaitl 31; Mcd 31; RNH 19; Kassian 14; Chaisson 13.
As I have pointed out a multitude of times
Holland added potential double digit evg forwards
Neal avg 19 evg 16-17 to 17-18
Archibald 12 evg
Granlund 10 evg 18-19; 16 evg 16-17
Jurco #20 LW 1.02 evg/60 17-18
Gagner top 30 RW .95 evg/60
Making us likely 10+ Double digit evg fwd deep.
Detroit
2014-15 (7)
Athanasiou 27 evg
Larkin 23
Mantha 18
Bertuzzi 18
Nyquist 15
Vanek 12
Nielsen 10
2015-16 (7)
Larkin 19 evg
Tatar 14
Abdelkader 13
Helm 13
Zetterberg 11
Nyquist 10
Sheahan 10
2016-17 (8)
Tatar 20 evg
Athanasiou 17
Mantha 16
Zetterberg 15
Larkin 11
Nielsen 11
Vanek 10
Nyquist 10
2017-18 (7)
Nyquist 18 evg
Mantha 15
Athanasiou 15
Larkin 13
Helm 11
Nielsen 10
Zetterberg 10
2018-19 (7)
Athanasiou 27 evg
Larkin 23
Mantha 18
Bertuzzi 18
Nyquist 15
Vanek 12
Nielsen 10
We should be deeper than 18-19
and better on
line 1 pair
Line 2 pair
Line 3 pair.
There are 12 x 82 = 984 fwd gm in a season
Drai, Mcdavid, RNH, Kassian, Chaisson generated 108 evg from 394 gm
18 other forwards generated 38 evg from 590 gm
590/82 = 7.20 fwd seasons
38/7.2 = 5.28 evg per from bottom 7.2 fwds
Neal 14-20
Granlund 10-16
Archibald 12
Jurco 1.02 evg/60
Should be a good bump to 26 from the other top 9 games
I say every year top GA is what we need.
I forgot Yamamoto. I don’t see him quite in that Bakersfield gang. I see him waiting a while and then stealing a spot beside Conno or Leon.
Excellent analysis here as always. I listen and learn everyday. My conclusion so far is ….we are in deep trouble.
Three top six players. Yet excellent top end.
Bottom six just clogged now with who knows what. Competition? Or confusion??
That’s a lot of spaghetti thrown at the wall. Ice time, coaching, training to a group who may be pushed aside rapidly.
Archibald and Granlund – thier old teams passed
Haas – nope
Nygard – maybe
Jurco – nope
Neal – risky bet as top six
Gagner – AHL last season
chaisson – can play a role
Kassian – can play a role
Khaira – can hold a spot
Did Holland fix bottom six?
Players I like? I think they have this group of stereotypical hockey dudes emerging and they will gel as a group. Benson, Currie, Marody, Gambardella. That’s the fillers for third and fourth line right there.
Defence – NHL caliber with reinforcements coming
Goalies – say a prayer
Back to top six. We need help. I still would have traded the first to see Ehlers on the wing. Last chance for Holland is JP in a package that picks up a good player who gets squeezed out of a cap team. I do think this will happen. We absolutely must have another bonafide top six player.
Other than that, we’re running in place. Not enough top end forwards, bets on bottom six, bets on goalies.
New for The Athletic: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
https://theathletic.com/1160927/2019/08/25/jay-woodcroft-joins-claude-julien-and-todd-nelson-as-key-coaches-in-oilers-prospect-development/
I did that at the start of hockey theory development.
Adjusted it as I identified large % affect factors that individual play needs to be differentiated by.
– Forward Open High Danger shot density rates.
– Looking at deep top 125 fwd teams. Even & total
Use to be 16G -39P; 13 evg – 30 Evp
18-19 19g – 43p; 15 evg – 33 Evp
– DZ specialist line eating DZ Fo starts so 3 lines can be 50+% Off FO starts.
– identifying above situation average players for DZ specialist, vs. Power, high off zone start goal generators.
Def
– Fwd NZ trap rates for entry prevention.
– finding Dmen who reduce the shot success density of every corsi faced to their side. Keep to perimeter.
– finding Dmen who make the highest % of corsi faced non scoreable to their side.
– finding goalies with the best +ve Open shot density save% versus Open HD save% baseline established by Dpairs.
Strong GA teams advance to final 8 40% more than strong GF teams.
You come up with what core exists in 25 years of championship finalists.
Final 4.
VGK selected 100% of players available in expansion that fit that core structure Inidentified.
I also stated pre expansion draft they were a Cup final GA team.
Being a top regular season team does not necessarily make you suited to make the final 8 or Final 4.
rickithebear,
To my eye the 2019-20 Oilers look a lot more like the 2015-19 Red Wings than the earlier versions (you agree on this).
You are clearly correct that Holland (as most GMs I’d assume) prefers to keep players in the minors until they’re damn good and ready. And he has clearly brought in lots of older vets this summer to provide obstacles for the young guys to jump over (as well as improving the actual team). Agreed.
One difference from the earlier Wings teams and the more recent ones (which is shared with recent Oilers) is the quality of talent coming up the system. From 1994-2012 the Wings never picked higher than 19th and only selected in the first round 9 times in 19 years. Those were the players kept on the farm till age 23. Not to mention the quality of depth of the Wings teams in most of those years. Not just top end talent, but through the lineup.
Even with the large number of veterans Holland has brought in for the Oilers, they aren’t the same level of impediment as the Red Wings 3rd and 4th liners of the 90’s and 00’s. Likewise, the talent bubbling up for the Oilers and recent Red Wings teams has been much higher. A lot easier for those players to pass a veteran for a roster spot.
In terms of whether this could be a no U23 debut season, it’s possible. I think Jones will most probably play 35+ but that very well could be it. I’d count Benson, Marody, Yamamoto and Bouchard as possibilities, but not particularly likely.
One last fun fact, Chiarelli and Gretzky graduated zero U23 players (>20 GP) to the Oilers last season.
It’s all about fit using the players strengths not putting him in a bad spot to fail. God Bless Tippett this is what he’s best at he’s a players coach. I will repost this at Christmas break when we’re in a playoff spot with the team D and our first shutdown line in a decade looking great.
That is precisely why a good coach will balance a line with an excellent to elite skater to mitigate the effect. I would agree that the players you noted are now slightly slower than league average but not at glue factory slow at this time.
Sequin,O’reilly, Schenn,Johansen,Sodenberg,Stall,Koivu,Tatar and Marchessault to add a few more recognizable names at Centre who didn’t hit their prime until after 25 there’s many many less recognizable names as well. I have zero doubt that Centremen in the history of the NHL age (point-wise) differently then wingers. A vast majority of Centreman or in their peak years 26-30.
We have an amazing group of analysts right now, a few of them love hockey, so we have been modeling top 10 teams in the league over the last 10 years and looking common predictors during some spare time.
Holland went out and got 26+yr NHL & European league forward depth
Archibald
Granlund
Jurco
Nygard
Haas
All with strong skating per scouting.
Tippett saying Granlund- Archibald as 3rd Off Pr for top 9 fwd base.
We know per Tippett
Drai – Mcd – xxx
Neal – RNH -xxx
Granlund – xxx – Archibald
DZ specialists Khaira, Brodziak, Cave, Haas
PP Drai, Mcd, RNH, Chaisson, Neal, Gagner
PK Archibald, Khaira, Cave, Kassian, Brodziak, Granlund,
That is 13 fwds.
What do the others bring?
JP the forward and dman depth from July 31 ish.
//
Current SIGNED depth.
Mcdavid C (22)
Draisaitl LW, C, RW(23)
Khaira LW, C (24)
Cave C (24)
RNH C (26)
Granlund LW, RW (26)
Archibald RW (26)
Nygard LW (26)
Jurco LW,RW (26)
Haas C (27)
Chaisson LW,RW (28)
Kassian RW (28)
Gagner RW (29)
Neal LW (31)
Brodziak C (35)
15 FWDS
7 who can play C
Nurse LD (24)
Benning RD (25)
Persson RD (25)
Larsson RD (26)
Klefbom LD (26)
Manning LD (29)
Russell LD,RD (32)
7D 3LD, 3RD 1 both
Koskinen G (31)
Smith G (37)
Prospects by age:
Currie (26)
Day D (26)
Gambardella LW (25)
Lagesson LD (23)
—————————————— All below cooking for 1-2 more years in AHL would be Holland’s way.
Maroody C,RW (22)
Hebig RW,C (22)
Jones LD (22)
Bear RD (22)
Benson LW (21)
Yamamotto RW,C (20)
Maximov RW (20)
Samaroukov LD (20)
Mcleod C (19) //
Is it a None 35+gm u23 debut season year?
JP:
Then on or couple days near July 31.
//Looking at oilers forwards & D under 23 every yr since 05-06
——————————— Lowe GM; MacT Coach
05-06 hemsky (22)
O6-07 Smid (20) MAP (21), JFJ (21), Lupul (22), Thoersen (22)
07-08 Gagner (18), Cogliano (20), Smid (21), Storitini (21), Nilsson (22), MAP (22), JFJ (22)
———————————- Katz new owner Tambellini GM
08-09 Gagner (19), Cogs (21), Smid (22), Reddox (22), Storitini (22)
———————————- Quinn New Coach
09-10 Gagner (20), Cogs (22), Brule (22), Chorney (22)
———————————- Renney New Coach
10-11 Hall (18), Pujarvi (19), Eberle (20), Gagner (21), Peckham (22), Petry (22)
11-12 RNH (18), Hall (19), Pujarvi (20), Lander (20), Eberle (21), Gagner (22)
———————————— Kruger Coach
12-13 Yakupov (18), RNH (19), Hall (20), Pujarvi (21), Lander (21), Eberle (22), Schultz (23)
———————————— MacT GM, Eakins Coach
13-14 Yakupov (19), RNH (20), Hall (21), Marincin (21)
14-15 Draisaitl (18), Yakupov (20), RNH (21), Klefbom (21), Hall (22), Marincin (22)
————————————- Chiarelli GM, Mclelland Coach
15-16 Mcdavid (18), Draisaitl (19), Nurse (20), Yak (21), RNH (22), Klef (22)
16-17 JP (18), Mcdavid (19), Drai (20), Nurse (21), Caggulia (22), Benning (22), Slep (22)
17-18 JP (19), Mcdavid (20), Drai (21), Nurse (22)
18-19 JP (20) Mcdavid (21), Drai (22)
——————————Holland GM, Tippett Coach
JP: we clearly had veteran depth in 05-06
JP:
How many this year with our roster and older prospect depth.
I posted forward and Dman roster depth in the same comment.
Should have broken them apart like I am doing here.
Neal has started his decline. But like many aging skill players, it won’t likely be a straight line. I can see him recovering to a 20-goal pace this year and resuming the decline two years from now. It might not happen, but I’ve drafted some gems in my hockey pool following this strategy. Doesn’t always work though. And if it does work and Neal recovers some his scoring, trade him trade him trade him in the offseason.
Yup, missed him – thank you.
JP:
On July 31 I post a look at Holland’s u23 forwards history.
Here is that look at Holland’s 21 yrs.
What is the first thing I state?
//
Holland and young players:
Holland has not had the Forward depth he would like the last few years.
We here he lets players cook in the minors.
Question is how old does he prefer his players before they get 32+ gm in NHL.
Is he like LT draft +5 (23)
Does he give them a chance after age is no longer a translation issue. (22)
Or is it sooner than that.
Holland publicly stated that players have asked for trades and he has convinced some to stay and some wanted to go. He only made a trade when the trade was in the teams interest.
Puljujarvi played in NHL @ 18, 19, 20.
Young forwards under Holland with close to 2/5 of season.
22yr is draft +4 when age adjustment is gone.
18-19 Rasmussen (19) 4 evg 10 PPA, Larkin (22)
17-18 Larkin (21), Mantha (22), bertuzzi (22)
16-17 Larkin (20), Mantha (21)
15-16 Larkin (19), Athanasiou (21), Jurco (22)
——————————————————- Blashill becomes coach
14-15 Jurco (21), Sheahan (22),
13-14 Jurco (20), Sheahan (21)
12-13 None
11-12 None
10-11 None
9-10 Helm (22), Abdelkader (22)
8-9 None
7-8 None
6-7 Hudler (22), Filpulla (22)
5-6 None
——————————————- Babcock becomes coach
3-4 Zetterberg (22)
2-3 Zetterberg (21), Avery (22)
——————————————- Lewis becomes coach
1-2 Avery (21)
0-1 Devereaux (22)
99-00 butsayev (20)
98-99 Dandenault (22)
97-98 Dandenault (21)
————————————————- Holland made GM July 1997
96-97 Dandenault (20), Lapointe (22)
95-96 Dandenault (19), Lapointe (21)
94-95 Lapointe (20), Primeau (22), Kozlov (22), MaCarty (22)
93-94 Lapointe (19), Primeau (21), Kozlov (21), McCarty (21), Sillinger (22), Draper (22), Johnson (22)
——————————————- Scotty B. Becomes coach
97-98 to 12-13 seems to be (22 yr) draft +4.
When age translation is no longer an issue.
Core development should be closer to complete//
Veteran depth is critical!
Then I presented oilers from 05-0 on.
Is it just me or is everyone Ricki talks to get fired within a month
OP:
Look at successful hockey orgs graduation tendencies.
With veteran depth and without.
You get around 35, 36, 37+ gm season debuts.
Less than less than 30 and less than 15 debuts.
It did that with Holland’s Detroit.
You will player non 35+ gm seasons.
That cannot be considered a full season debut.
Giving them a test near 37 or beyond is a debut.
Munny,
+1
Many
Age translation only exists from age
Draft -1 (16) 75% – 100% in a .30 league
Draft (17) 50% – 75%
Draft +1 (18) 40% – 50%
Draft +2 (19) 35% – 40%
Draft +3 (20) 32% – 35%
Draft +4 (21) 30% – 32%
Desjardins suggests an 18 yr draft will give you 2 seasons of strong age NHLE measure of a player.
Best year to have draft.
Holland prefers draft + 6 for non exceptional prospect debuts.
LT yrs and yrs of hockey news, etc. Says draft +5
Desjardins age translation says you know what you have from CHL, AHL or pre NCAA jr, NCAA group of seasons by draft +5.
All the league are normalized ((league equivalency/.30) x age translation) x offensive totals.
6 seasons to look at consistency of a prospect.
A healthy (draft -1) season for first 2 junior line players often matches (draft +1) if the players (draft) was injury riddled.
Example Sean Monohan.
Discussion of performance change from 23 on is about other adult lean mass factors.
Allways has been.
You have posted this before and I’m just wondering how you came to those numbers?
Ryan,
I’m saying they need to be used with care.
To expand, what I am saying is that aging curves don’t give us a definitive enough picture on any given individual to give us reason to exclude or ignore the data of their recent performance, In fact they are themselves constructed from an aggregate of recent individual performances.
Like all general trends, they need to be applied generally. Ie as a group, and over the course of seasons, we can expect the offensive output of the team’s veterans to decline. (Which is not exactly a novel concept lol). But within that time frame and within that group we can expect variance. And the best descriptor of how individual vets are decaying, ie exploring that variance, is their own performance. not the general trend.
Individuals are subject to variables which wash out in the general picture: injuries, usage, luck etc.
JP’s dataset does infer that it is reasonable to expect some regression to the meat, Aging curves inform that expectation by adding the caveat that the regression might not be as a great as we hope. But they don’t say w.r.t. to these 3 vets that we can conclude there will certainly be no regression this season.
And McLeod
I think it’s worth noting that this trend doesn’t hold in his recent years as GM, which are more relevant to the current version of the Oilers for multiple reasons.
To be accurate, those aren’t drafts listed but players that turned pro in each of those seasons.
For example, 2019 for the Oilers will include:
Bouchard, Safin, Maksimov, Samorukov, Desharnais.
When players fall off it’s a deterioration of skill obviously, but what affects their production the most is losing their job (be it in the league entirely, or more likely a spot on the PP or with good line mates).
So the aging curves are predicting these guys to lose a point or two due to age, but in the context of the 2019-20 Oilers they’re likely to have excellent opportunities to play prominent roles in the lineup.
Gagner will most probably have better line mates and more PP opportunity than in his previous 2 seasons (when he still scored at decent rates).
Neal will almost certainly be in a better spot to produce than he was s last season.
Chiasson will likely continue to get top 6 line mates and PP minutes, so he shouldn’t regress back to 4th line production (24 points per 82 the 2 seasons before last).
It’s all but guaranteed that 2 of these 3 will play top 6/PP.
And again, I’ve said all along those scoring rates would be the optimistic view. They are. But i don’t believe they’re terribly unlikely.
Small sample size is often mentioned here as a reason for skepticism regarding predicting future performance.
The same is true for large sample sizes imo.
And, as you say, extrapolating from the general to the specific just offers a peak at what might be called a 75-90% rule. It gives you information about how to ‘play the odds’. 😉
Looking at Holland’s 21 yrs as det GM.
When looking at ages u23.
Zero U23 is the most ssn of his 21 yrs of any age 19, 20, 21, 22
So I’m not trying create a straw man argument here, but it sounds a lot like you’re arguing against the use of player aging curves in projecting offense for players? Is that a fair or unfair interpretation?
Gagner. Just turned 30. Poor skater. Already spent time in AHL in two of past four seasons including 43 games last season. I’d say the precipice is within sight. He is a good passer and could help the second PP unit, so those skills don’t tend to erode.
Chiasson. Will be 29 by the time the season starts. Poor skater. Google is failing me since I can’t find the article. Iirc Willis wrote one on comps for bottom six guys. Their aging curves are interesting in that it’s like a light switch goes off and they’re no longer NHL players just like that. In the game one day and out the next. There’s not a lineup of guys to take his job, so he’ll play no matter what this up coming season, but I’m not sure about next season.
Neal. 32 at start of season. He could bounce back or alternatively, he could already be finished. I think there’s a decent chance he bounces back a bit. He’s not a good bet to score like he used to at age 32, but this is the Oilers, so he’ll get plenty of opportunity and good players to play with.
1. Be careful of extrapolating from the general to the specific. The articles describe a general trend that can be plotted from a range of individual performances. We don’t know which dots on that plot our individual players will represent this coming year.
2. Just like prospects don’t develop in a straight line neither do veterans decay in a straight line. They have up and down years. Some regression to the meat can be expected.
3. JP’s data does not include the 22-25 yo years for the players you mention. The “offensive plateau” is not in his numbers. The best predictor we have of future performance is recent performance, which is precisely his dataset.
His methodology is fine… and reasonable.
I promised you I wouldn’t cry but what about Mess.
IMO your NHL team needs +11 players that have played +50 games in your farm system.
Each year you need to graduate 1 player that plays +50 games, 1 player that plays +25 games and 1 player who plays +15 NHL games.