Early Rushes

I’ll be publishing my ‘reasonable expectations’ series (it’s four posts, most likely) over at The Athletic beginning next week. I have the numbers but haven’t written it yet, meaning there’s some fun items that might be talking points on a late August morning. So, here goes.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NOTES

There are some things that are interesting about the RE projections. I have the young forwards emerging around mid-season or later, and there’s going to be roster turnover around the trade deadline (or sooner).

The highest scoring rookie forward is Cooper Marody, he also has the highest five-on-five per 60 scoring rate. No surprise there, Eric Rodgers estimated Marody’s even-strength points-per-60 was 2.38 during his rookie AHL season. Tyler Benson also posts solid numbers, but both men play less than half a season. Benson’s even-strength points-per-60 estimate (Rodgers) is 2.00 and that is reflected in my estimate.

I have the Oilers forwards scoring 208 times, that’s nine more than a year ago.

Top six forwards behind the big three include the obvious (Neal, Kassian and Chiasson) but also Sam Gagner, Joakim Nygard and Markus Granlund. I tried like hell to keep Gagner on a depth line but it’s harder than it looks.

Third line centers include Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Colby Cave and later Marody. The four men score (as a group) 14 goals. The 2018-19 No. 3 centres (Ryan Strome, Cave, Khaira, Spooner, Brad Malone) scored eight goals.

OPENING NIGHT (EXPECTED)

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner
Extra: Tomas Jurco, Colby Cave
Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson
Kris Russell—Matt Benning
Extra: Caleb Jones
Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)

TRADES

The other thing worth mentioning is trades. I see several selloff deals around the deadline, both to make room and to stock up on picks. Candidates include Markus Granlund, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian, Kris Russell, Matt Benning.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back on the radio at 10 this morning, TSN1260. A busy weekend means a lot to talk about, including the massive Andrew Luck announcement and the ridiculous reaction that followed. Jason Gregor will also join us to chat about the Eskimos as they head into the biggest two weeks of the year and your comments are welcome. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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202 Responses to "Early Rushes"

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  1. Professor Q says:

    Are we worried? Or do we wait until after his press conference? It would really be a shame if that damned Flame ended McDavid’s Prime Gifts. And no, Giordano did not deserve the Norris.

    McDavid (knee) won’t skate at BioSteel Camp

    https://www.tsn.ca/edmonton-oilers-star-connor-mcdavid-knee-won-t-take-part-in-biosteel-camp-1.1356097

  2. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Are we worried? Or do we wait until after his press conference? It would really be a shame if that damned Flame ended McDavid’s Prime Gifts. And no, Giordano did not deserve the Norris.

    McDavid (knee) won’t skate at BioSteel Camp

    https://www.tsn.ca/edmonton-oilers-star-connor-mcdavid-knee-won-t-take-part-in-biosteel-camp-1.1356097

    Easily the correct call, very smart by McDavid.

  3. 106 and 106 says:

    I guessed Grade II tear without surgery…

    Grade I or II injuries may not require surgery if they are the only injured structures in the knee. Also chronic PCL injuries that are recently diagnosed may not require surgery if there are no presenting symptoms or other complications. Non-surgical treatment should include physical therapy in order to gain and maintain range of motion at the knee and strengthen the muscles around the knee to provide stability around the joint.

    Physical therapy rehabilitation will progress through exercises targeting specific muscles and progressing the movement of the knee through increasing ranges of motion. Range of motion will be progressed gradually in order to limit the stresses through the joint during the initial phase of recovery. Resistance exercises will be progressed as therapy continues in order to gradually increase forces through the knee and build up muscular strength and endurance.

    Around 9 weeks post-injury the patient can initiate a light running program and gradually return to sport activities through week 12.

    Criteria to return to sport:

    Absence of pain and swelling
    No detectable laxity within injured knee
    Strength gains in affected leg equal to greater than 85% of unaffected side

    He’s what? 14 weeks into recovery and probably wants a few more to be sure he’s better for camp?

    (John Hopkins ref)

  4. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Professor Q:
    Are we worried? Or do we wait until after his press conference? It would really be a shame if that damned Flame ended McDavid’s Prime Gifts. And no, Giordano did not deserve the Norris.

    McDavid (knee) won’t skate at BioSteel Camp

    https://www.tsn.ca/edmonton-oilers-star-connor-mcdavid-knee-won-t-take-part-in-biosteel-camp-1.1356097

    Good Gord! Let’s hope it is entirely for precautionary reasons.
    Lucic should have pummeled Gio. Oh, wait….

  5. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Easily the correct call, very smart by McDavid.

    I can see it. Better to be safe than sorry. But I guess I was just going on the reports and posters here saying that he was already skating this Summer and would be attending, and that he was all good to go. Set myself up with those expectations.

  6. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide’s projected starting lineup:

    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner
    Extra: Tomas Jurco, Colby Cave
    Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
    Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson
    Kris Russell—Matt Benning
    Extra: Caleb Jones
    Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)

    Lowetide’s projected deadline trade bate:
    The other thing worth mentioning is trades. I see several selloff deals around the deadline, both to make room and to stock up on picks. Candidates include Markus Granlund, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian, Kris Russell, Matt Benning.

    So, I guess Lowetide and I share the expectation that the Oilers won’t likely be making the playoffs. This is extra crazy though when you sift through the tradebate:
    – #1 RW
    – the entire 3rd line!!
    – #4 RW
    – #3 LD
    – #3 RD

    Lordy…

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Love the “re:” series – it must be really hard to project the forwards this year given there is so much in flux, not only who will fill out the bottom few spots but who will play where in the roster. There are so many players where a reasonable argument can be made for up and down the lineup.

    Take Nygard for example – I would think that he should be slotted in as 3LW or 4LW but there is a chance he plays in the top 6 and there is also a chance he’s not even an NHL player.

    Sam Gagner is likely slotted in to the bottom 6 but could play on all 4 lines and both PP1 or PP2.

    JJ Khaira – is he 2LW, 3C, 4C, 4LW?

    Kassian, likely to start at 1RW but does he play 70 games there or 15? His “re:” would be radically different.

    Tyler Benson – does he play 70 games in the NHL or 10? Is he in the bottom 6 or does he solidify a 2LW?
    ————————————-

    I wish there was less “flux” going in to camp but, at the same time, its going to be so entertaining to see the battles.

  8. godot10 says:

    Apropos of nothing in particular…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7dp9OSqpdU

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the “expected lineup” is pretty darn close.

    I’d like to have Neal as 2RW as opposed to 2LW (he is more comfortable on the right side with a left shot center and I’d like to do everything we can to put him in a position to succeed – a true bounce back would help immensely).

    If somehow Tyler Benson can be ready for a real 2LW spot, it makes things easier. Let it be so.

    On the defence, I have to switch Persson and Benning. It would be phenomenal if Persson is a legit 2RD at 5 on 5 but I think that is a stretch for October 2.

  10. oilersfan says:

    I believe it’s been 18 weeks since McDavid’s injury. It sure what all this means but it s18 weeks

    How much difference is there between Michael Stone and Matt Benning?

    Could the oilers trade Benning for a decent prospect or a 4th round pick and sign Stone to league minimum and save $1 million on the cap?

  11. tileguy says:

    106 and 106,

    And here I was thinking you were a doctor, but thanks for posting that just the same.

  12. Eh Team says:

    HT Joe: Lowetide’s projected starting lineup:
    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner
    Extra: Tomas Jurco, Colby Cave
    Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
    Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson
    Kris Russell—Matt Benning
    Extra: Caleb Jones
    Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)
    Lowetide’s projected deadline trade bate:
    The other thing worth mentioning is trades. I see several selloff deals around the deadline, both to make room and to stock up on picks. Candidates include Markus Granlund, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian, Kris Russell, Matt Benning.
    So, I guess Lowetide and I share the expectation that the Oilers won’t likely be making the playoffs. This is extra crazy though when you sift through the tradebate:
    – #1 RW
    – the entire 3rd line!!
    – #4 RW
    – #3 LD
    – #3 RD
    Lordy…

    It looks like the year is a year of pretending to be a contender and then of transitioning in the younger guys. But it would be better to just stick the most ready of the young guys straight into the lineup. I’m thinking specifically of Marody and Jones. Then I suppose injuries will initiate the call-ups of guys like Benson, Yammo, Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson. But they should be here earlier rather than later.

    If McDavid isn’t 100% the season will be over before it starts.

    If Cave is getting any minutes to start the year, that’s just pathetic. Even Gagner is just a stop gap. He can put up some points on a team pretending to compete but otherwise any minutes to him are a waste.

    Nygaard, Haas, Jurco- we need to find out if these guys are worth keeping for next year. Otherwise, it should be clear the decks and slot in the young guys who will be part of the long term solution.

  13. texmex says:

    mark zwolinski
    @markzwol
    ·
    16m
    Connor McDavid says he’s focused on reporting to camp for oilers – he’s not skating at Biosteel camp but says he’s been on ice for 2 months now

  14. John Chambers says:

    texmex:
    mark zwolinski
    @markzwol
    ·
    16m
    Connor McDavid says he’s focused on reporting to camp for oilers – he’s not skating at Biosteel camp but says he’s been on ice for 2 months now

    He must’ve put out that statement in response to Professor Q’s post.

  15. Ryan says:

    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

  16. Durag says:

    Eh Team: It looks like the year is a year of pretending to be a contender and then of transitioning in the younger guys.But it would be better to just stick the most ready of the young guys straight into the lineup.I’m thinking specifically of Marody and Jones.Then I suppose injuries will initiate the call-ups of guys like Benson, Yammo, Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson.But they should be here earlier rather than later.

    It’s just nice to make the kids have to justify their spots in the NHL with really good AHL play, and/or have a contingency plan if they’re drowning in the NHL. It’s also a recognition of the salary cap reality that if you’re over 25 and not in the top half of the roster, you’re going to live and die by a string of 1 year contracts and get used to moving a lot on deadline days. This is Smart GMing in my eye.

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    EDM at bare minimum, needs:

    -a top 6 winger to push Chiasson down to where he belongs (and help poor Nuge)
    -an unknown to help push the river at 3C
    -Persson to be top 4 quality by game 10
    -Koskinen to play above average for 55-60 games

    Godspeed Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Marody, Haas, Benson, Persson, Koskinen, and a shooting star

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ryan,

    two 5th lines

  19. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Love the “re:” series – it must be really hard to project the forwards this year given there is so much in flux, not only who will fill out the bottom few spots but who will play where in the roster.There are so many players where a reasonable argument can be made for up and down the lineup.

    Take Nygard for example – I would think that he should be slotted in as 3LW or 4LW but there is a chance he plays in the top 6 and there is also a chance he’s not even an NHL player.

    Sam Gagner is likely slotted in to the bottom 6 but could play on all 4 lines and both PP1 or PP2.

    JJ Khaira – is he 2LW, 3C, 4C, 4LW?

    Kassian, likely to start at 1RW but does he play 70 games there or 15? His “re:” would be radically different.

    Tyler Benson – does he play 70 games in the NHL or 10? Is he in the bottom 6 or does he solidify a 2LW?
    ————————————-

    I wish there was less “flux” going in to camp but, at the same time, its going to be so entertaining to see the battles.

    I’m bullish on Benson and I think he makes it difficult on Tippet and Holland not to have him pencilled in on the second line with Nuge and Neal to start the year. If this line can find chemistry and Neal can shoot out of the gate and if they stay above water and are a threat to score draw penalties how huge would this be for our playoff hopes

  20. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    I believe it’s been 18 weeks since McDavid’s injury. It sure what all this means but it s18 weeks

    How much difference is there between Michael Stone and Matt Benning?

    Could the oilers trade Benning for a decent prospect or a 4th round pick and sign Stone to league minimum and save $1 million on the cap?

    Stone is done. He hasn’t recovered full ability from his injury.

  21. Durag says:

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    I’m not sure what the dividing line is between a 3rd and a 4th line player. I think Archibald and Granlund are capable of being in the 12-17 goal range, which probably makes them 3rd line, but I wouldn’t be shocked by single digit totals either. I like JJ a lot but I don’t think he’s a 3rd line centre,

  22. godot10 says:

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Lagesson/Jones/Russell Benning (I’m thinking Lagesson wins the job.)

    is the correct deployment of the blueline.

    One has to put Joel Persson in the best place for him to succeed, since his success is crucial for the OIlers, and that is with Klefbom.

    And one isn’t asking for Benning to do too much. He is a very good 3rd pairing D.

    Larsson needs to rebound after a poor season last year.

    And lets see if Nurse deserves and earns his next contract.

    ——————————————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    OP, Staples disagrees with your oft stated opinion that Bear hasn’t improved on his weaknesses since his NHL stint. I found these comments from March:

    “This year, after a slow start in Bakersfield of the AHL due to injury issues, Bear has picked up his game considerably, at least if you go by… the regular reports from Bakersfield coach Jay Woodcroft on Oilers Now.”

    “I’m happy to report that Woodcroft’s reviews of Bear are correct. This 21-year-old d-man is playing his best hockey as a pro.

    Most importantly, Bear looks like he’s moving faster and reading the game better on defence, much better, in fact. On a number of occasions he swooped in fast and sure to steal away pucks from opposing attackers.

    His offensive game looked as sharp as ever. The kid can flat out rip a pass.”

    “Only Jones is an NHL-level skater, but Marody and especially Bear appear to have stepped up their skill level in this regard.

    All of them have to be regarded as strong bets to challenge for NHL jobs in September, and that’s not something I would have said of Bear before this recent improvement in his game.”

    I know you watch AHL TV, but I thought these comments were much more encouraging than your constant negativity towards this player.

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    The makers of BioSteel are saddened to announce today that knee ligaments are not actually made out of a magical material called BioSteel.

    Watch for our newest product arriving in time for the 2019/2020 NHL season: Cadaver Donors!

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Is it just me or does that 2nd line look awfully slow?

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    One of the few things I’m certain of this year is that the Oilers outscore themselves on last year by more than nine goals. It was a reverse-career year for a lot of people. Not going to stretch much picturing any of those guys outscoring Lucic and Reider.

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    oilersfan: Could the oilers trade Benning for a… 4th round pick

    This would be terrible value for a decent player.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    Two below average 4th lines.

  29. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: Two below average 4th lines.

    Well ya, that’s what I intended to imply, but did not explicitly state.

  30. commonfan29 says:

    I mused on the night of his injury that McDavid would be like the kid pitcher from Rookie of the Year and come back even faster.

    He just doesn’t want to spoil the surprise.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Our lineup is just awful. Argh. First time since drafting McDavid I’m entering the season with zero optimism. That Chiasson even has a remote chance of playing on the second line is depressing. And I don’t dislike the player. It just shows how pathetic our depth scoring is – not even depth scoring – anything outside the top line. On the bright side, the team does have the building blocks for a solid defence group. The only way we make the playoffs is if multiple rookies come in and knock it out of the park. We will likely be good enough to draft just outside the top 10. The worst of all worlds.

  32. Yeti says:

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    It’s what you get when you breed a unicorn with a donkey.

  33. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    If Oilers are concerned about playing Persson where he can succeed, he’d be #7 with o zone shifts and powerplays.

    Some are putting way too much stock into Persson’s SEL numbers. Could be decent, could be another Brad Hunt.

    IMO, Jones spends some time up at that 2RD spot this season, Bouchard takes it over next season.

  34. HT Joe says:

    Yeti: It’s what you get when you breed a unicorn with a donkey.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/the-last-unicorns/

  35. defmn says:

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    It looks like a fourth and a fifth to me. 😉

  36. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Is it just me or does that 2nd line look awfully slow?

    No, it is not just you. It was my first thought when I looked at the lines.

  37. Professor Q says:

    Yeti: It’s what you get when you breed a unicorn with a donkey.

    HT Joe: https://pbfcomics.com/comics/the-last-unicorns/

    I love that comic, but I thought of Galdemore the Honkeycorn, from Clone High.

    https://clonehigh.fandom.com/wiki/Galdemore

  38. Ryan says:

    Durag: I’m not sure what the dividing line is between a 3rd and a 4th line player. I think Archibald and Granlund are capable of being in the 12-17 goal range, which probably makes them 3rd line, but I wouldn’t be shocked by single digit totals either. I like JJ a lot but I don’t think he’s a 3rd line centre,

    The quick way of doing the analysis is to pull up natural stat trick…

    If you assume there are 3 x 3 rd line players per team and every team has 3 actual third line players… sort players by their points per / 60 and point totals (not corrected for 82 game pace)

    Well, we know those are both false assumptions based upon the Oilers alone…

    Then you get range 5v5 of 1.44 to 1.76 points per hour (no min time played) or 1.23 to 1.64 (min 500 minutes)

    Or you get a range of (rough approximation) about 22 to 33 points per season (min 500 minutes not adjusted per 82 games) all stats for a third-line player.

  39. oilersfan says:

    godot10,

    Godot, From his blood clot or knee surgery?

    He played 3 season after his knee surgery and if not a second pairing dman he was a decent third pairing one who could play second in a pinch for a bit

  40. fishman says:

    I would best describe our projected line up for the upcoming season to be “Swiss Cheeze Like” A lot of holes are going to be filled by players who don”t have a track record of being successful in the vacant spots. Too many long shots for even a cautious optimist to expect a playoff spot. In my opinion Holland has done a “good job” (as could be expected given hand he was dealt!) Hope I am wrong so Let’s Go Oilers!

  41. Profit says:

    I decided to ignore all McDavid talk today (except here, because you know)… it’s all for fans of other teams feeding the trolls (that TSN page is painful).

    I completely trust McDavid to show up in shape to camp. He doesn’t *need* to be on the ice for BioSteel, so why would he take any risk? It is all downside – imagine if he hurt himself in the BioSteel camp? The mind boggles.

    From all of his disclosure and while being quiet about things, he’s been remarkably transparent – showing what seems to be in innate understanding of social media – and consistent. He says he’ll be ready to go for camp.

    IMO any other take on this today is just Trolly McTrollface.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think the “expected lineup” is pretty darn close.

    I’d like to have Neal as 2RW as opposed to 2LW (he is more comfortable on the right side with a left shot center and I’d like to do everything we can to put him in a position to succeed – a true bounce back would help immensely).

    If somehow Tyler Benson can be ready for a real 2LW spot, it makes things easier. Let it be so.

    On the defence, I have to switch Persson and Benning. It would be phenomenal if Persson is a legit 2RD at 5 on 5 but I think that is a stretch for October 2.

    One hopeful thing is that Tip’s system will be far easier to play than previous ones. More typical and simply keeping play outside.

    Gives a guy like Benson a far lesser chance of having the offensive chops but not being able to handle the defensive side.

  43. Profit says:

    And the 3/4th lines suck.

    I am a believer in reducing minutes for 4th line players to effectively zero, while managing top minutes for star players (aka load management) through smart deployment of role players in games which are out of hand (positive or negative) as is done in other sports. I do not have statistical analysis to back this up as of yet.

    Now if it was only 4th line… but 3rd and 4th? That’s a problem.

  44. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Ryan,

    James Neal—xxx—Alex Chiasson
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    We could very easily could have 3 4th lines!

  45. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Based on the 5/5 data…

    Chiasson just barely hits the bottom end of a 3rd liner (1.26 points per hour) !!! That’s with something like 600 minutes with Draisaitl, but what the hell pay the man $2.15 m dollars. He still doesn’t count because he’s penciled in for the second line.

    Nygard and Haas are mysteries…

    Kassian is in the range of a 3rd liner at 1.41 points per hour, but that number is cooked by playing with McDavid and Draisaitl not to mention he’s penciled into the first line, so you can’t count him anyway.

    Khaira is in the range at 1.45 points per hour as is Gagner with a small sample size alert at 1.89.

    Granlund squeaks in at the bottom end of a 3rd liner at 1.26 points per hour.

    Archibald is in range at 1.56 points per hour.

    Somehow if we’re to trust points per 60 at 5v5, we have Archibald, Granlund, Khaira, and Gagner in range of a 3rd liner though Grandlund is at the very bottom end of one.

    I think the problem with this exercise is encapsulated by Chiasson. Sure he’s a 1.26 point per hour guy at 5v5 which would, in theory, squeak him into the range of a 3rd liner at 5v5 BUT that’s when he mostly plays with Draisatl… If you put Chaser into the bottom six playing with Archibald and Khaira, you’d expect his 5v5 offense to fall off a cliff.

    That’s sort of the problem with the rest of these guys when you playing them together, they’re playing with worse teammates than they did last year and the offense will crater.

  46. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Our lineup is just awful. Argh. First time since drafting McDavid I’m entering the season with zero optimism.That Chiasson even has a remote chance of playing on the second line is depressing.And I don’t dislike the player.It just shows how pathetic our depth scoring is – not even depth scoring – anything outside the top line.On the bright side, the team does have the building blocks for a solid defence group. The only way we make the playoffs is if multiple rookies come in and knock it out of the park. We will likely be good enough to draft just outside the top 10. The worst of all worlds.

    Come on Jimmy, have some faith … don’t be so skeptical.

  47. dinger says:

    106 and 106:
    I guessed Grade II tear without surgery…

    Grade I or II injuries may not require surgery if they are the only injured structures in the knee. Also chronic PCL injuries that are recently diagnosed may not require surgery if there are no presenting symptoms or other complications. Non-surgical treatment should include physical therapy in order to gain and maintain range of motion at the knee and strengthen the muscles around the knee to provide stability around the joint.

    Physical therapy rehabilitation will progress through exercises targeting specific muscles and progressing the movement of the knee through increasing ranges of motion. Range of motion will be progressed gradually in order to limit the stresses through the joint during the initial phase of recovery. Resistance exercises will be progressed as therapy continues in order to gradually increase forces through the knee and build up muscular strength and endurance.

    Around 9 weeks post-injury the patient can initiate a light running program and gradually return to sport activities through week 12.

    Criteria to return to sport:

    Absence of pain and swelling
    No detectable laxity within injured knee
    Strength gains in affected leg equal to greater than 85% of unaffected side

    He’s what? 14 weeks into recovery and probably wants a few more to be sure he’s better for camp?

    (John Hopkins ref)

    Excellent research, this confirms what I had found during the gnashing of nails on here at the time of injury.

  48. Ryan says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Ryan,

    James Neal—xxx—Alex Chiasson
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    We could very easily could have 3 4th lines!

    Well, some here believe in things like player aging curves… others wear tinfoil hats.

    But if we are to believe in player aging curves…

    James Neal produced at .99 points per hour last year, He’s 32.

    Chiasson produced at 1.26 points per hour playing 600 minutes with Draisatl, if he’s bumped off the PP and top six, look out. He’ll be 29 to start the season.

    Gagner produced well last year at 5v5 in a small sample size, but he’s bounced around the minors and he’s 30.

    Other than that…

    Nygard and Haas–they might not be NHL 4rth liners at this point. We don’t know and can’t assume.

    Gandlund produced like a high-end 4rth liner last year at evens on the Nucks who have to have better bottom-six depth than we do.

    Really, we basically need Benson to hit at training camp to have any hope at all.

  49. YKOil says:

    Going to say, up front, I’m good with another non-playoff year IF there is real progress on the team as a whole. Given the automatic improvement that will come via Cap space freeing up at the end of the year, I’ll be happy with:

    – a better result in points,
    – an injury free year for key players,
    – NHL level development of at least one of the new ‘unknown’ UFA’s and two of the prospects
    – re-establishing Khaira’s full value to the team and having one of Archibald or Granlund establish value,
    – trading spare parts (Gagner, et al),
    – being in a position to trade one of Russell or Benning, or both, at the trade deadline (because we can upgrade),
    – being in a position to trade one of Neal, Chiasson or Kassian, at the trade deadline (because we can upgrade),
    – getting a real look at what Koskinen can do full-season (faint hope is still hope); and
    – giving RNH reason to re-up

    Those things happen and I can look forward to thinking this team SHOULD make the play-off in 2020-2021.

    Don’t really care about Pulju situation (Holland is doing fine imo), expect 18-24 goals out of Neal and if my list come to be it means Tippett is doing fine as coach so that is why those things don’t have a spot on the list.

    PC took us a long, long way down the wrong path. Takes time to get back on track.

  50. Durag says:

    This ain’t a playoff season, folks. I know it’s tough to tell an Oilers fan to enjoy incremental progress, but that’s what we’re looking at here.

    Don’t lose sight of the fact that we’re already rid of the Lucic contract. That moves the rebuild timeline up significantly.

  51. tileguy says:

    koolaid nazi must be in town.

  52. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m sure a monkey with a pen could have done it, but today I feel like giving Chiarelli some credit for getting 97 locked down for 8 years.

  53. barry.moore23 says:

    YKOil,

    I’m with ya, man. Deep hole to dig out of. Let’s just watch and be grateful for the all the good things in our lives.

  54. Ryan says:

    tileguy:
    koolaid nazi must be in town.

    Okay, I’ll pour a round of Kool-Aid.

    Right before the season starts, Holland pulls off a surprise trade involving Russell with a million retained along with Ethan Bear for Mason Appleton.

    Appleton and Benson show surprising chemistry during the preseason…

    Benson shows up in camp after spending all summer working on his first step and skating speed.

    Makes the team out of camp and goes on to pot 38 points playing on a productive third line with Appleton and on the second PP unit…

    I’ll pass the torch here for someone else to finish the story.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    While I like Granlund/Archibald as a pair as the line will likely be used as a checking type line, to me, there are 3 non-4th liners on that line, potentially:

    – Granlund is a legit 3rd liner
    – I believe, if healthy, Khaira is a legit third liner, maybe not at center but in general
    – Gagner is more than a 4th liner – his P/G and P/60 over the last number of years confirm that – he produced as evens away from McDavid last year.

    While those lines have the 3rd and 4th liners meshed, I do believe there are 3 non-4th liners and Nygard could potentially be, maybe?

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: Well, some here believe in things like player aging curves… others wear tinfoil hats.

    But if we are to believe in player aging curves…

    James Neal produced at .99 points per hour last year, He’s 32.

    Chiasson produced at 1.26 points per hour playing 600 minutes with Draisatl, if he’s bumped off the PP and top six, look out. He’ll be 29 to start the season.

    Gagner produced well last year at 5v5 in a small sample size, but he’s bounced around the minors and he’s 30.

    Other than that…

    Nygard and Haas–they might not be NHL 4rth liners at this point. We don’t know and can’t assume.

    Gandlund produced like a high-end 4rth liner last year at evens on the Nucks who have to have better bottom-six depth than we do.

    Really, we basically need Benson to hit at training camp to have any hope at all.

    Vancouver’s bottom six last season was a tire fire. Some of that was due to injury (Beagle, Sutter)
    But Granlund was a big part of the problem.

  57. Revolved says:

    LT, your projected line up seems to be getting a less than stellar reception. Probably because it resembles the roster at the end of last year, which was getting caved on a nightly basis.

    The problem is that McDavid and Draisaitl can’t play 60 minutes a night, but if you put those bottom two lines on the ice they will probably get scored on. This means we’re chasing the game early and need to push the top line for the whole game.

    I have already spelled out why I don’t think it will work, even if Tippett improves the systems. Roll the three centres so that they all have something left in the tank at the end of the game and the season to make a push.

  58. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    I think the problem with this exercise is encapsulated by Chiasson. Sure he’s a 1.26 point per hour guy at 5v5 which would, in theory, squeak him into the range of a 3rd liner at 5v5 BUT that’s when he mostly plays with Draisatl… If you put Chaser into the bottom six playing with Archibald and Khaira, you’d expect his 5v5 offense to fall off a cliff.

    That’s sort of the problem with the rest of these guys when you playing them together, they’re playing with worse teammates than they did last year and the offense will crater.

    This seems entirely fair, but I’m not sure it’s true.

    Chiasson 5v5/60 in 16-17 and 17-18 was 1.28 and 1.27. No McDavid, no Draisaitl.

    Kassian 1.66 and 1.29 the same years. Minimal top 6 minutes.

    Gagner: yes, small sample size. But 2.02 in 16-17 and 1.04 in 17-18 (and a recovery in 32 games this past season). 17-18 is the only season of his career where he didn’t score at 2nd or 3rd line rates. Why would you question the 18-19 small sample when it fits with nearly everything else he’s done in his career?

    Don’t get me wrong, we’re lacking multiple top 6 wingers, and these guys are no world beaters in the bottom 6, but there’s zero reason not to expect them to be passable in that role.

  59. jp says:

    Ryan: Well, some here believe in things like player aging curves… others wear tinfoil hats.

    But if we are to believe in player aging curves…

    James Neal produced at .99 points per hour last year, He’s 32.

    Are aging curves calculated off of one year?

  60. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Based on the 5/5 data…

    Chiasson just barely hits the bottom end of a 3rd liner (1.26 points per hour) !!!That’s with something like 600 minutes with Draisaitl, but what the hell pay the man $2.15 m dollars. He still doesn’t count because he’s penciled in for the second line.

    Nygard and Haas are mysteries…

    Kassian is in the range of a 3rd liner at 1.41 points per hour, but that number is cooked by playing with McDavid and Draisaitl not to mention he’s penciled into the first line, so you can’t count him anyway.

    Khaira is in the range at 1.45 points per hour as is Gagner with a small sample size alert at 1.89.

    Granlund squeaks in at the bottom end of a 3rd liner at 1.26 points per hour.

    Archibald is in range at 1.56 points per hour.

    Somehow if we’re to trust points per 60 at 5v5, we have Archibald, Granlund, Khaira, and Gagner in range of a 3rd liner though Grandlund is at the very bottom end of one.

    I think the problem with this exercise is encapsulated by Chiasson. Sure he’s a 1.26 point per hour guy at 5v5 which would, in theory, squeak him into the range of a 3rd liner at 5v5 BUT that’s when he mostly plays with Draisatl… If you put Chaser into the bottom six playing with Archibald and Khaira, you’d expect his 5v5 offense to fall off a cliff.

    That’s sort of the problem with the rest of these guys when you playing them together, they’re playing with worse teammates than they did last year and the offense will crater.

    So could this be a 3rd and 4th line combo?
    3rd:
    JJ-Marody-Gag/Chia (OZ oriented)
    4th:
    Gran-Haas-Arch (DZ oriented)

    “Top 6”:
    Drai-McD-Kass
    Benson/Nygard-RNH-Neal

  61. Lowetide says:

    Revolved:
    LT, your projected line up seems to be getting a less than stellar reception. Probably because it resembles the roster at the end of last year, which was getting caved on a nightly basis.

    The problem is that McDavid and Draisaitl can’t play 60 minutes a night, but if you put those bottom two lines on the ice they will probably get scored on. This means we’re chasing the game early and need to push the top line for the whole game.

    I have already spelled out why I don’t think it will work, even if Tippett improves the systems. Roll the three centres so that they all have something left in the tank at the end of the game and the season to make a push.

    My lineup is getting the appropriate response, I think. Now, Holland is no fool and probably prays daily for Marody and or Benson to push someone down the depth chart. However, my roster projection is betting the coach will prefer veterans and recall kids when they’re hammering the minors.

    As for breaking up 97 and 29, I talked about that exact thing on the Lowdown today.. We wait.

  62. Ryan says:

    jp: Are aging curves calculated off of one year?

    Wait a minute, you’re talking about actually calculating player aging curves. Now I feel like a Pakled.

    When it comes to player aging curves, my level of sophistication in regards to their usage is simply a basic understanding that they represent an effect analogous to a gravitation field on a player’s offensive production over time. A gravitational effect that pulls down the offense on a predictable curve over time, sort of like the effects of gravity on a projectile.

    Other than acknowledging that basic premise, I’m a Luddite who doesn’t have the time nor ability to scrape NHL data and create a working model to calculate the predictive effects of player aging on NHL production.

    As such, I don’t have a validated working model of an NHL player aging curve calculator that I can input numbers into and get a result.

    Anyone want to make one? Georges? Gmoney? Woodguy?

  63. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Which of the fresh meat (Nygard, Jurco, Haas, Arch, Granlund) is MOST likely to have top 6 “potential”? i.e., could be given consideration to play on the top 2 lines…?

    My guess is Nygard, but there are wiser people around here than me, so …let er rip.

    Takk

  64. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide: As for breaking up 97 and 29, I talked about that exact thing on the Lowdown today.. We wait.

    Could you please paraphrase in a brief reader’s digest?

  65. McNuge93 says:

    McDavid is going to be on TSN Overdrive in about half and hour from now.

  66. jp says:

    Ryan: Wait a minute, you’re talking about actually calculating player aging curves. Now I feel like a Pakled.

    When it comes to player aging curves, my level of sophistication in regards to their usage is simply a basic understanding that they represent an effect analogous to a gravitation field on a player’s offensive production over time. A gravitational effect that pulls down the offense on a predictable curve over time, sort of like the effects of gravity on a projectile.

    Other than acknowledging that basic premise, I’m a Luddite who doesn’t have the time nor ability to scrape NHL data and create a working model to calculate the predictive effects of player aging on NHL production.

    As such, I don’t have a validated working model of an NHL player aging curve calculator that I can input numbers into and get a result.

    Anyone want to make one?Georges? Gmoney? Woodguy?

    My intended point there was to question your implication that Neal just scored 0.99/60 and at 32 is likely to fall further. I don’t think 0.99 is a fair point to work off, rather something incorporating 1.47, 1.75, 0.99.

    IMO a reasonable prediction for Neal would be a rebound towards earlier levels, while also dinging him some for turning 32. 1.25 or 1.30/60 as a guess (I’m not calculating aging curves either).

    FWIW the first article you posted yesterday showed something like a 0.02 PPG drop per year from ages 25-30. About 2 points per year for a 50 point player.

  67. jp says:

    YKOil:
    Going to say, up front, I’m good with another non-playoff year IF there is real progress on the team as a whole.Given the automatic improvement that will come via Cap space freeing up at the end of the year, I’ll be happy with:

    – a better result in points,
    – an injury free year for key players,
    – NHL level development of at least one of the new ‘unknown’ UFA’s and two of the prospects
    – re-establishing Khaira’s full value to the team and having one of Archibald or Granlund establish value,
    – trading spare parts (Gagner, et al),
    – being in a position to trade one of Russell or Benning, or both, at the trade deadline (because we can upgrade),
    – being in a position to trade one of Neal, Chiasson or Kassian, at the trade deadline (because we can upgrade),
    – getting a real look at what Koskinen can do full-season (faint hope is still hope); and
    – giving RNH reason to re-up

    Those things happen and I can look forward to thinking this team SHOULD make the play-off in 2020-2021.

    Don’t really care about Pulju situation (Holland is doing fine imo), expect 18-24 goals out of Neal and if my list come to be it means Tippett is doing fine as coach so that is why those things don’t have a spot on the list.

    PC took us a long, long way down the wrong path.Takes time to get back on track.

    I like this. But the pessimistic view of the 2020 cap situation is not much better than this summer was.

    If Koskinen ends up not being the answer in goal his replacement plus Nurse’s raise eats almost all of the cap space that’s freeing up. Hopefully he’s better on his 2nd go round.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    EDM at bare minimum, needs:

    -a top 6 winger to push Chiasson down to where he belongs (and help poor Nuge)
    -an unknown to help push the river at 3C
    -Persson to be top 4 quality by game 10
    -Koskinen to play above average for 55-60 games

    Godspeed Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Marody, Haas, Benson, Persson, Koskinen, and a shooting star

    1) Tyler Benson

    2) Cooper Marody

    3) That would be an absolute boon. I am fine with Benning there for now and am just looking for Persson to prove he can handle 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes – it he can handle 2RD, we are in VERY good shape

    4) No necessarily sure I agree – I don’t know how the tending will play out or which goalie will play more games. It would be best, for the future, if Koskinen does indeed prove to be a capable 65 game starter but success for this coming year will essentially be dependent on the duo and they perform as a pair. For all we know they trade off getting “hot” for 8-10 games at a time and we get plus tending for most of the year. They both do have a track record of getting hot for stretches.

  69. Ben says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Which of the fresh meat (Nygard, Jurco, Haas, Arch, Granlund) is MOST likely to have top 6 “potential”? i.e., could be given consideration to play on the top 2 lines…?

    My guess is Nygard, but there are wiser people around here than me, so …let er rip.

    Takk

    I don’t think there’s a top-sixer in the group, but I’m definitely curious to see what Jurco brings if he can stay healthy. He’s around a ppg for his AHL career, had some really productive stretches in the bigs.

    I’m skeptical about the Euros and think that out of the whole group Archibald has a strong chance to produce the most points.

  70. Dr. Taboggan says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Bare minimum lists are fun. Here is mine:

    1) 3 Top 6 wingers
    2) 1 3C
    3) 1 Starting Goalie
    4) 1 2RHD

    This roster is so bad lol.

  71. gimme shelter says:

    I read the TSN article about McDavid before coming here. Can you imagine if McDavid has to take the first 10 games off for more rehab. Or he comes back, tweaks it and then has to go for surgery. Oh God.
    The consensus seems to be all of Holland’s signings are 3rd,4th and 5th line potential. We do not have a extra top 6 forward amongst them. By November people might be calling for Holland’s head.
    We are hoping Yam,Marody,Benson Gambardella progress in the AHL. What if they do not?
    We are really screwed Edmonton style if these worst case scenarios happen.

  72. Material Elvis says:

    gimme shelter:
    I read the TSN article about McDavid before coming here. Can you imagine if McDavid has to take the first 10 games off for more rehab. Or he comes back, tweaks it and then has to go for surgery. Oh God.
    The consensus seems to be all of Holland’s signings are 3rd,4th and 5th line potential. We do not have a extra top 6 forward amongst them. By November people might be calling for Holland’s head.
    We are hoping Yam,Marody,Benson Gambardella progress in the AHL. What if they do not?
    We are really screwed Edmonton style if these worst case scenarios happen.

    If McDavid is out and the team falters, I doubt anyone will be calling for Holland to be fired. Which player available this summer, who was willing to come to Edmonton, who could fit in under the cap, would be able to replace McDavid’s minutes?

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I’m bullish on Benson and I think he makes it difficult on Tippet and Holland not to have him pencilled in on the second line with Nuge and Neal to start the year. If this line can find chemistry and Neal can shoot out of the gate and if they stay above water andare a threat to scoredraw penalties how huge would this be for our playoff hopes

    If Benson can be a true 2LW with Nuge this year, that would really really help the depth chart – puts Neal at RW which is better and bumps Chiasson down to the bottom 6.

    I think Tyler will indeed be a true 2LW in the NHL but it may not be this October – we will find out soon.

  74. Ryan says:

    jp: My intended point there was to question your implication that Neal just scored 0.99/60 and at 32 is likely to fall further. I don’t think 0.99 is a fair point to work off, rather something incorporating 1.47, 1.75, 0.99.

    IMO a reasonable prediction for Neal would be a rebound towards earlier levels, while also dinging him some for turning 32. 1.25 or 1.30/60 as a guess (I’m not calculating aging curves either).

    FWIW the first article you posted yesterday showed something like a 0.02 PPG drop per year from ages 25-30. About 2 points per year for a 50 point player.

    Agreed, 1 year wasn’t fair. I wasn’t citing one year out laziness not malice.

    In his case, while you need to shave a little off the 5v5 curve due to age, he’ll also get a boost as a near-lock to play in the top six due to lack of alternatives.

    Struggle in Calgary and you’re bumped out of the top six. Struggle out of the gate in Edmonton, you’re still going to get a lot of looks in the top six.

  75. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Which of the fresh meat (Nygard, Jurco, Haas, Arch, Granlund) is MOST likely to have top 6 “potential”? i.e., could be given consideration to play on the top 2 lines…?

    My guess is Nygard, but there are wiser people around here than me, so …let er rip.

    Takk

    I think the most likely answers are Benson, Marody, Yamamoto.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot:
    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Lagesson/Jones/Russell Benning(I’m thinking Lagesson wins the job.)

    is the correct deployment of the blueline.

    One has to put Joel Persson in the best place for him to succeed, since his success is crucial for the OIlers, and that is with Klefbom.

    And one isn’t asking for Benning to do too much.He is a very good 3rd pairing D.

    Larsson needs to rebound after a poor season last year.

    And lets see if Nurse deserves and earns his next contract.

    ——————————————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Ughhh, I don’t know why, maybe its your posting style, but I consider the above posting your opinion as fact and your opinion being the “correct way”.

    Don’t get me wrong, I agree that the above is optimal, at least at this point, however, its 100% contingent on Persson being able to handle 2nd pairing minutes at 5 on 5, even with a plus second pairing partner. We don’t know if he can handle 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes let alone 2nd pairing and, until we know more, there can’t be a “correct” deployment, in my opinion.

    Do you agree?

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    OriginalPouzar,

    OP, Staples disagrees with your oft stated opinion that Bear hasn’t improved on his weaknesses since his NHL stint. I found these comments from March:

    “This year, after a slow start in Bakersfield of the AHL due to injury issues, Bear has picked up his game considerably, at least if you go by… the regular reports from Bakersfield coach Jay Woodcroft on Oilers Now.”

    “I’m happy to report that Woodcroft’s reviews of Bear are correct. This 21-year-old d-man is playing his best hockey as a pro.

    Most importantly, Bear looks like he’s moving faster and reading the game better on defence, much better, in fact. On a number of occasions he swooped in fast and sure to steal away pucks from opposing attackers.

    His offensive game looked as sharp as ever. The kid can flat out rip a pass.”

    “Only Jones is an NHL-level skater, but Marody and especially Bear appear to have stepped up their skill level in this regard.

    All of them have to be regarded as strong bets to challenge for NHL jobs in September, and that’s not something I would have said of Bear before this recent improvement in his game.”

    I know you watch AHL TV, but I thought these comments were much more encouraging than your constant negativity towards this player.

    Yup, Staples opinion differs than mine and that’s fine.

    I’m fairly confident I watched my Condors than Mr. Staples this year but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

    You may call it “constant negativity” but I’m just providing an opinion on the player based off of watching him play – I see him struggle with the exact things he struggled with in the NHL and struggling at the AHL level.

    I have indeed opined that he has improved but I think it is less so than Staples.

    Lets not forget, defending off the rush, puck retrievals and defensive zone board battles were lesser in the 2nd half of the season as the Condors were so dominant – the team was possession beats, they rarely defended. I wonder if that has anything to do with Bears better second half performance?

    In any event, I hope I’m wrong and Staples is right and I hope he has (or will) progress enough to be able to handle 3RD at the NHL level. His shot is a weapon and his transition pass indeed a plus.

  78. Jordan says:

    I think a lot of people here are really underrating Nygard and Haas. Nygard especially -I think there is every chance this guy gets a shot at a top 6 role, and makes Kenny look like a genius for signing him. He’s known for his 2-way game, his speed, and his scoring. Oh, and 5 years pro experience.

    Tell me, what wingers we have with that kind of skill set?

    The list is very, very short.

    Leon – Connor – Kassian
    Nygard – Nuge – Neal
    Granlund – Marody – Archibald
    Khaira – Haas – Chiasson
    Ex – Gagner, Jurco

    I recognize Nygard doesn’t have NHL exp. But that’s not nearly as significant for a winger, as it is for a centre, D, or Goalie.

    I think he’s likely a great complement to Nuge and Neal.

    I also think there aren’t enough good centres to keep Marody off the roster.

    I think people who don’t see this team improving are too focused on past performance, and not on the players and their potential to achieve in the roles they’re in.

    Looking forwards to seeing this team start playing!

  79. pts2pndr says:

    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

  80. Professor Q says:

    gimme shelter:
    I read the TSN article about McDavid before coming here. Can you imagine if McDavid has to take the first 10 games off for more rehab. Or he comes back, tweaks it and then has to go for surgery. Oh God.
    The consensus seems to be all of Holland’s signings are 3rd,4th and 5th line potential. We do not have a extra top 6 forward amongst them. By November people might be calling for Holland’s head.
    We are hoping Yam,Marody,Benson Gambardella progress in the AHL. What if they do not?
    We are really screwed Edmonton style if these worst case scenarios happen.

    Imagine if that happens and Draisaitl scores 60?

  81. frjohnk says:

    pts2pndr:
    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

    You must be new here 🙂

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Two below average 4th lines.

    So Granlund, Khaira and Gagner are below average fourth liners?

    I would posit that Granlund is a legit 3rd liner.

    Khaira, although he still has to prove it, is a 3rd liner – he has shown those abilities – last year’s poor production was mainly a function of injury.

    Gagner produces at much higher than 4th line rates.

    Even Archibald is a plus 4th liner.

    Haas, Nygard – total wild cards – may be less than 4th liners – we don’t know.

    How did you come to your opinion above may I ask?

  83. frjohnk says:

    Professor Q: Imagine if that happens and Draisaitl scores 60?

    points?

    Oilers twitter will be interesting in regards to Leons contract.

  84. Professor Q says:

    Profit:
    I decided to ignore all McDavid talk today (except here, because you know)… it’s all for fans of other teams feeding the trolls (that TSN page is painful).

    I completely trust McDavid to show up in shape to camp. He doesn’t *need* to be on the ice for BioSteel, so why would he take any risk? It is all downside – imagine if he hurt himself in the BioSteel camp? The mind boggles.

    From all of his disclosure and while being quiet about things, he’s been remarkably transparent – showing what seems to be in innate understanding of social media – and consistent. He says he’ll be ready to go for camp.

    IMO any other take on this today is just Trolly McTrollface.

    No, I was just worried due to that particular headline being the first one I saw, with the caveat that he’d be giving more details during a press conference later on.

    With the recent Andrew Luck ordeal, yes I had that in my head. Why hold a presser? Maybe serious? But yes. He’s the Captain and he was giving updates. I can’t believe they even tried comparing him to Luck and basically implying that he might have been thinking of applying Luck’s situation to his own and maybe retiring (he handled that nicely; they’re very different players at different career points and he can’t know what Luck is going through). I’m glad he’s doing well and progressing and focusing on coming back to lead the team, when healthy.

    Plus, come on. They tried to make him seem injury prone. He’s only been injured twice in the NHL, really, and both by dirty NHL plays. The third time was back in the OHL and it was a broken wrist due to fighting. He’s not injury prone.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    godot10,

    If Oilers are concerned about playing Persson where he can succeed, he’d be #7 with o zone shifts and powerplays.

    Some are putting way too much stock into Persson’s SEL numbers. Could be decent, could be another Brad Hunt.

    IMO, Jones spends some time up at that 2RD spot this season, Bouchard takes it over next season.

    Do we take the Vegas Knights’ Brad Hunt?

  86. Revolved says:

    LT,

    I’m sorry to say I have never heard you on the radio. I would love to hear your take on roster deployment, though.

    I just hope that Tippett actually watches tape from the end of last year. Surely he will not want to repeat that tire fire. I will remind everyone that McDavid actually had a GF% around 45 in 2019… brutal. Something different needs to be done.

  87. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk: points?

    Oilers twitter will be interesting in regards to Leons contract.

    Goals, my friend! Goals!

  88. Ryan says:

    Jordan,

    I don’t think we’re underrating Nygard. I’m simply saying we can’t really count on anything at this point.

    A euro like Nygard is the type of player you can just slide into the third line on a team like San Jose and he’s plug and play, but on a team, like the Oilers were there’s little cover in the bottom six, it’s something I don’t count on until I see it.

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Leon scored 29, 25, and then 50. Let’s say 35 this year.

    Chiasson scored 12, 9, 22. Let’s say 14 this year.

    Kassian scored 7, 7, 15. 10 this year?

    I understand the Rieders scored 0 but man, much of the top 6 F scorers overachieved and they were 7th last.

  90. 106 and 106 says:

    tileguy,

    I’m a nurse who studied sports movement + injuries so know a little 🙂

  91. Jaxon says:

    pts2pndr:
    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

    I did think the Blues had one of the strongest rosters heading into the season, but at midseason I certainly didn’t think they had a hope in hell of even making the playoffs let alone winning. But they did have a great looking lineup to start the season.

  92. Oilman99 says:

    Scoring only nine more goals than last year indicates that Holland’s work this summer was all for nothing, as that would mean virtually no improvement overall as a team. I would hope there are larger steps forward than just nine goals.

  93. Reja says:

    Lots of Debbie downer whiners today. When the Oilers make the playoffs and who knows after that they can post are tell their hockey buddies I told you so.

  94. SwedishPoster says:

    So I got a chance to catch the BroBerglund combo when Skellefteå played their local rivals allsvenskan side Björklöven(translates to ”the birch leaves” btw) in a preseason game friday. The rivalry goes way back and is a heated one between Skellefteå’s working class mining town and Umeå’s(where Björklöven is from) academic university town so the game was more intense than your average preseason game. The overall quality however was more typical for preseason.

    The first two periods had a crazy amount of penalties so the players not on special teams had a tough time getting into rythm. Broberg played on the PK but for this game he wasn’t on any PP unit so he was one of the players whose ice time was a bit on and off, he has been on the PP for the first two games from what I understand and has been getting praise so I’d take this more as the coach trying different looks. He started out with Berglund on the PK and they did fine imo but from the 2nd period on the coacher tried left-lefty and righty-righty combos on PK, don’t know the reasoning, both stayed in the rotation but with new partners. 5 on 5 they played together all game and both got extra shifts with the 7th D(during these shifts Broberg played RD as the 7 th D is a lefty)

    Broberg had some sloppy play early but overall had a fine game, not as much of a standout as was reported from the first two games but played well, generally good positioning, couple of great pokechecks, stood up with great timing and gap control on both blue lines, showed defensive smarts way beyond his years, showed off some excellent first passes out of the d zone and a couple of creative plays offensively. He’s tall and lanky but man is he solid on his skates, great great balance. On the minus side outside the sloppy start he got caught on the wrong side of a stretch pass once and bobbled the puck on the offensive blue so Berglund had to bail him out but overall solid. His skating was ofc beautiful though he never really showed off his top gear. A lot has been made of his straight line speed but he showed that he moves well in all directions, great edges, beauty pivots and had some quick turns to create room for himself that were nothing short of elite. So despite a somewhat quiet game he still flashed his quality.
    After the game one of his assistant coaches told one reporter that Broberg had been the teams best player during preseason and that it was a privilege to get to work with him. He especially lauded his focus and willingness to work on his game, staying after practice etc, this is something I’ve also heard from his former team as well as other sources around Skellefteå, extremely ambitious kid.

    Berglund shared Broberg’s sloppy start but also had a good game and was more involved than Broberg. After his midseason dip last year he’s become a bit of a whipping boy for some fans but this game his play didn’t match the negative verbal. He played on the PK and on PP2( both units got similar toi).He can be casual with the puck at times but he made a lot of smart plays, was physical, good positioning, good stick, found some nice spots inthe offensive zone. His lateral and backwards skating has always been fine but his first few steps and straight line speed has been an issue, to me it looked like he’s worked on it since last season.
    I like Berglund and think there’s a player there. I hope the Oilers sign him even if his season ends up being just average, my sense is that he’s a guy who could really benefit from a new setting and a new set of eyes to take that next step. He’s been with Skellefteå since his youth hockey days and they’ve done a great job developing him but I think both sides have become a bit too comfortable with each other. I’m not saying he’s in a bad situation or that he won’t develop this season, Broberg being there could actually turn out great for him, but I think there’s an extra gear to be found with a new perspective. Call it a hunch.

    In other SHL news former Flames first rounder Kerby Rychel who was supposed to play in the SHL for Örebro this season terminated his contract and left before playing a game. Officially for ”personal reasons” but according to reports he showed up over 20 lbs overweight and was hot garbage in practice so they decided on mutual termination. Sounds like someone pissing away his career. Always great when a Flames pick falls apart but I hope there aren’t any deeper issues behind it.

  95. geowal says:

    Oilman99:
    Scoring only nine more goals than last year indicates that Holland’s work this summer was all for nothing, as that would mean virtually no improvementoverall as a team. I would hope there are larger steps forward than just nine goals.

    What if his work results in an outstanding PK and a meaningful reduction in EV GA? Would you still say it is for nothing?

  96. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, Staples opinion differs than mine and that’s fine.

    I’m fairly confident I watched my Condors than Mr. Staples this year but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

    You may call it “constant negativity” but I’m just providing an opinion on the player based off of watching him play – I see him struggle with the exact things he struggled with in the NHL and struggling at the AHL level.

    I have indeed opined that he has improved but I think it is less so than Staples.

    Lets not forget, defending off the rush, puck retrievals and defensive zone board battles were lesser in the 2nd half of the season as the Condors were so dominant – the team was possession beats, they rarely defended.I wonder if that has anything to do with Bears better second half performance?

    In any event, I hope I’m wrong and Staples is right and I hope he has (or will) progress enough to be able to handle 3RD at the NHL level. His shot is a weapon and his transition pass indeed a plus.

    The fact is, the coaches will have the last say, Bear’s transition passing could be the determining factor, as that ability is a true asset that this team lacks.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    fishman:
    I would best describe our projected line up for the upcoming season to be “Swiss Cheeze Like”A lot of holes are going to be filled by players who don”t have a track record of being successful in the vacant spots. Too many long shots for even a cautious optimist to expect a playoff spot. In my opinion Holland has done a “good job” (as could be expected given hand he was dealt!) Hope I am wrong so Let’s Go Oilers!

    I can’t disagree with the premise – you are correct that we have holes that are likely being filled by players without a track record of success in those positions.

    Up front, the main hole is 2nd line winger and, in my opinion, the ability of Tyler Benson to fill that spot will have a major impact on the team as it pushes someone like Chiasson out of the top 6 and in to the bottom 6 where he can help. I am confident that Benson can fill that spot at some point this year but its likely a stretch on October 2 – with that said, its not a fully unreasonable bet given pedigree, type of game he plays, work ethic, skill level, IQ.

    Another potential that would help dearly, although lets likely, is Marody being a decent 3C – he should get some at bats at camp and, if he succeeds maybe he gets the real tryout in October. I do think its a stretch but I will remain hopeful. There has to be something about Haas that Holland sees – he’s coveted him for years from accounts. Holland has had a good eye in the past for players from the European leagues, he knows those leagues. I don’t see it but maybe we’ll find out in the next 6 weeks.

    On defence that spot is 2RD, as per every other year. I am quite confident that Klefbom/Benning will make a legit 2nd pairing – they have very nice numbers over the years. The question on that pairing is health.

    I actually think that bet on Benning is reasonable. Betting on Persson for 2RD is not, in my opinion, not at this point. Him proving to be a legit 2RD makes our healthy defence look really nice in my mind.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Profit:
    I decided to ignore all McDavid talk today (except here, because you know)… it’s all for fans of other teams feeding the trolls (that TSN page is painful).

    I completely trust McDavid to show up in shape to camp. He doesn’t *need* to be on the ice for BioSteel, so why would he take any risk? It is all downside – imagine if he hurt himself in the BioSteel camp? The mind boggles.

    From all of his disclosure and while being quiet about things, he’s been remarkably transparent – showing what seems to be in innate understanding of social media – and consistent. He says he’ll be ready to go for camp.

    IMO any other take on this today is just Trolly McTrollface.

    I take the same view.

    Thankfully I’ve as busy right now at the office as I’ve been in the last 5 years and I haven’t really had time to read all the blogs and twitter, etc. I can imagine what twitter is like and the comments on many of the blogs.

    I’m not catastrophizing it.

    Haven’t had a chance to listen to his verbal from earlier today but, from accounts, he’s looking forward to training camp.

    Unless/until its been stated by him or the team that he’s not fully participating in camp from day 1, I’m not going to speculate and/or be concerned.

    I am “anxiously” awaiting the first post-medical day of camp to see him out there as a full participant.

  99. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SwedishPoster:
    So I got a chance to catch the BroBerglund combo when Skellefteå played their local rivals allsvenskan side Björklöven(translates to ”the birch leaves” btw) in a preseason game friday. The rivalry goes way back and is a heated one between Skellefteå’s working class mining town and Umeå’s(where Björklöven is from) academic university town so the game was more intense than your average preseason game. The overall quality however was more typical for preseason.

    The first two periods had a crazy amount of penalties so the players not on special teams had a tough time getting into rythm. Broberg played on the PK but for this game he wasn’t on any PP unit so he was one of the players whose ice time was a bit on and off, he has been on the PP for the first two games from what I understand and has been getting praise so I’d take this more as the coach trying different looks. He started out with Berglund on the PK and they did fine imo but from the 2nd period on the coacher tried left-lefty and righty-righty combos on PK, don’t know the reasoning, both stayed in the rotation but with new partners. 5 on 5 they played together all game and both got extra shifts with the 7th D(during these shifts Broberg played RD as the 7 th D is a lefty)

    Broberg had some sloppy play early but overall had a fine game, not as much of a standout as was reported from the first two games but played well, generally good positioning, couple of great pokechecks, stood up with great timing and gap control on both blue lines, showed defensive smarts way beyond his years, showed off some excellent first passes out of the d zone and a couple of creative plays offensively. He’s tall and lanky but man is he solid on his skates, great great balance. On the minus side outside the sloppy start he got caught on the wrong side of a stretch pass once and bobbled the puck on the offensive blue so Berglund had to bail him out but overall solid. His skating was ofc beautiful though he never really showed off his top gear. A lot has been made of his straight line speed but he showed that he moves well in all directions, great edges, beauty pivots and had some quick turns to create room for himself that were nothing short of elite. So despite a somewhat quiet game he still flashed his quality.
    After the game one of his assistant coaches told one reporter that Broberg had been the teams best player during preseason and that it was a privilege to get to work with him. He especially lauded his focus and willingness to work on his game, staying after practice etc, this is something I’ve also heard from his former team as well as other sources around Skellefteå, extremely ambitious kid.

    Berglund shared Broberg’s sloppy start but also had a good game and was more involved than Broberg. After his midseason dip last year he’s become a bit of a whipping boy for some fans but this game his play didn’t match the negative verbal. He played on the PK and on PP2( both units got similar toi).He can be casual with the puck at times but he made a lot of smart plays, was physical, good positioning, good stick, found some nice spots inthe offensive zone. His lateral and backwards skating has always been fine but his first few steps and straight line speed has been an issue, to me it looked like he’s worked on it since last season.
    I like Berglund and think there’s a player there. I hope the Oilers sign him even if his season ends up being just average, my sense is that he’s a guy who could really benefit from a new setting and a new set of eyes to take that next step. He’s been with Skellefteå since his youth hockey days and they’ve done a great job developing him but I think both sides have become a bit too comfortable with each other. I’m not saying he’s in a bad situation or that he won’t develop this season, Broberg being there could actually turn out great for him, but I think there’s an extra gear to be found with a new perspective. Call it a hunch.

    In other SHL news former Flames first rounder Kerby Rychel who was supposed to play in the SHL for Örebro this season terminated his contract and left before playing a game. Officially for ”personal reasons” but according to reports he showed up over 20 lbs overweight and was hot garbage in practice so they decided on mutual termination. Sounds like someone pissing away his career. Always great when a Flames pick falls apart but I hope there aren’t any deeper issues behind it.

    Cheers Swedish

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I take the same view.

    Thankfully I’ve as busy right now at the office as I’ve been in the last 5 years and I haven’t really had time to read all the blogs and twitter, etc. I can imagine what twitter is like and the comments on many of the blogs.

    I’m not catastrophizing it.

    Haven’t had a chance to listen to his verbal from earlier today but, from accounts, he’s looking forward to training camp.

    Unless/until its been stated by him or the team that he’s not fully participating in camp from day 1, I’m not going to speculate and/or be concerned.

    I am “anxiously” awaiting the first post-medical day of camp to see him out there as a full participant.

    Now i listened to him:

    As per McDavid:

    – the timeline was always this late in to the summer.
    – there have been no set backs
    – he’s been skating for a while now – so much so that he’s been dealing with a bit of “lace bite” – he laughed as he said it.
    – feels ready to go
    – decision not to skate was solely the contact aspect of it
    – have time before camp and might as well give it more time

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: I don’t think there’s a top-sixer in the group, but I’m definitely curious to see what Jurco brings if he can stay healthy. He’s around a ppg for his AHL career, had some really productive stretches in the bigs.

    I’m skeptical about the Euros and think that out of the whole group Archibald has a strong chance to produce the most points.

    Jurco is a bit of a sleeper.

    Not much said or written about him but he’s had some success in the NHL and much success in the AHL.

    I won’t expect him to make the team (or play in the top 6) out of camp but sometimes these older guys become legit for a few years. Yes, its the exception but, it does happen. At some point, something like that has to happen to this org.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr:
    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

    One under-stated but incredibly important aspect is the PK.

    The biggest issue last year was GA and the PK was the biggest micro-issue therein.

    A healthy Khaira should help the PK as he’s shown to be one of the top guys. Archibald and, to a lesser extent, Granlund are proven NHL PK guys. Nygard, from accounts, excelled at this skill in Sweden. Haas as well, I think?

    A bounce back season from Larsson will do wonders – I think his father’s death weighed heavily on him last year and we will see a MUCH improved Larsson.

    Of course, a big part of the PK will be the tending.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    I think a lot of people here are really underrating Nygard and Haas.Nygard especially -I think there is every chance this guy gets a shot at a top 6 role, and makes Kenny look like a genius for signing him.He’s known for his 2-way game, his speed, and his scoring. Oh, and 5 years pro experience.

    Tell me, what wingers we have with that kind of skill set?

    The list is very, very short.

    Leon – Connor – Kassian
    Nygard – Nuge – Neal
    Granlund – Marody – Archibald
    Khaira – Haas – Chiasson
    Ex – Gagner, Jurco

    I recognize Nygard doesn’t have NHL exp.But that’s not nearly as significant for a winger, as it is for a centre, D, or Goalie.

    I think he’s likely a great complement to Nuge and Neal.

    I also think there aren’t enough good centres to keep Marody off the roster.

    I think people who don’t see this team improving are too focused on past performance, and not on the players and their potential to achieve in the roles they’re in.

    Looking forwards to seeing this team start playing!

    The hesitation from most on Nygard, I think, isn’t his range of skills or really his “experience”, it simply that success in the SHL, even 15 ESG to lead the league, does not necessarily translate to the NHL.

    I am confident that his skating will translate, duh, but not that any offensive part of his game. I do think he’ll be a serviceable bottom 6 and PK guy but just can’t pencil him in to the top 6.

    I hope you are right – it would really help if one of Nygard or Benson can prove to be a legit 2LW, preferably Benson but I will certainly take either.

    I like your optimism and i too have optimism. Maybe more excitement than optimism.

    There are so many unknowns with the team and so many players that I can’t wait to watch all the stories unfold, even if the aggregate isn’t great in the standings.

    Reason to tune in each and every night.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Holland didn’t have a lot of wiggle room to work with this summer. Without a GM making a boneheaded play, and to be fair that isn’t something that should be expected, of course Holland acting on a situation like that should be expected, but only people inside would know.

    Still, he moved Lucic which is massive. First because unhappy camper, but more so because of the expansion draft and not needing to protect Neal. Maybe Milan waives, maybe he doesn’t.

    For me, despite the uncertainty around players Holland brought in, I see them as more likely to succeed than many of Chiarelli’s picks. Of course any GM can’t just get on the horn and order up what they think they want.

    Still Pete went for players either a bit small with issues, or players a bit big with issues usually skating.

    Holland has brought on players ( outside of Chiasson whom I think was signed because he’s got a solid right shot and plays for the coach, and also to be seen as a fair guy rewarding a well liked guy off a career year- there are a lot of balls in the air for Ken) that have more typical NHL size AND are plus skaters and have two way games. Versatile and gives Tips options McL didn’t always have .

    Stats give us glimpses at players individually, but team play and usage is absolutely critical for most players at this level.

    The Blues are the poster children for this. A balanced if bland team, the right coach was the icing.

    Although I don’t think they are likely to win many in Connor’s day. Or no more actually but not because Oilers this season.

    Oilers so close IMO. A few bits off balance picture.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Revolved:
    LT,

    I’m sorry to say I have never heard you on the radio. I would love to hear your take on roster deployment, though.

    I just hope that Tippett actually watches tape from the end of last year. Surely he will not want to repeat that tire fire. I will remind everyone that McDavid actually had a GF% around 45 in 2019… brutal. Something different needs to be done.

    1) the Lowdown is fantastic radio

    2) from accounts (and his mouth) Tippett has been watching a ton of tap,e including tape of the Condors – now I don’t know if its “down the stretch – tirefire tape” but tape nonetheless

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman:
    Scoring only nine more goals than last year indicates that Holland’s work this summer was all for nothing, as that would mean virtually no improvementoverall as a team. I would hope there are larger steps forward than just nine goals.

    Can’t agree.

    Firstly, GA were a much bigger issue that GF.

    Secondly, the main premise of this off-season was to take steps to set the team up for more material acquisitions and improvements in years 2-4. Yes, immediate improvement is important and a goal but not at the expense of medium and longer term improvement. Keeping cap and asset currency and taking steps ti increase those, that was the main premise.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: The hesitation from most on Nygard, I think, isn’t his range of skills or really his “experience”, it simply that success in the SHL, even 15 ESG to lead the league, does not necessarily translate to the NHL.

    I am confident that his skating will translate, duh, but not that any offensive part of his game.I do think he’ll be a serviceable bottom 6 and PK guy but just can’t pencil him in to the top 6.

    I hope you are right – it would really help if one of Nygard or Benson can prove to be a legit 2LW, preferably Benson but I will certainly take either.

    I like your optimism and i too have optimism.Maybe more excitement than optimism.

    There are so many unknowns with the team and so many players that I can’t wait to watch all the stories unfold, even if the aggregate isn’t great in the standings.

    Reason to tune in each and every night.

    To me the translation factor comes down to jam. Euro leagues have ruffians. The difference is that most NHL players will do whatever to take you down, and there is no swooping around the big ice to avoid it.

    A top producing player from a top Euro league should be a good player in the NHL, as a top AHL player, IF they have the right mindset.

    If they aren’t able to be intimidated which will be the first attempts at them, will play in more straight lines, can skate, chances are solid IMO.

    These guys aren’t teenagers Holland found.

  108. Reja says:

    SwedishPoster:
    So I got a chance to catch the BroBerglund combo when Skellefteå played their local rivals allsvenskan side Björklöven(translates to ”the birch leaves” btw) in a preseason game friday. The rivalry goes way back and is a heated one between Skellefteå’s working class mining town and Umeå’s(where Björklöven is from) academic university town so the game was more intense than your average preseason game. The overall quality however was more typical for preseason.

    The first two periods had a crazy amount of penalties so the players not on special teams had a tough time getting into rythm. Broberg played on the PK but for this game he wasn’t on any PP unit so he was one of the players whose ice time was a bit on and off, he has been on the PP for the first two games from what I understand and has been getting praise so I’d take this more as the coach trying different looks. He started out with Berglund on the PK and they did fine imo but from the 2nd period on the coacher tried left-lefty and righty-righty combos on PK, don’t know the reasoning, both stayed in the rotation but with new partners. 5 on 5 they played together all game and both got extra shifts with the 7th D(during these shifts Broberg played RD as the 7 th D is a lefty)

    Broberg had some sloppy play early but overall had a fine game, not as much of a standout as was reported from the first two games but played well, generally good positioning, couple of great pokechecks, stood up with great timing and gap control on both blue lines, showed defensive smarts way beyond his years, showed off some excellent first passes out of the d zone and a couple of creative plays offensively. He’s tall and lanky but man is he solid on his skates, great great balance. On the minus side outside the sloppy start he got caught on the wrong side of a stretch pass once and bobbled the puck on the offensive blue so Berglund had to bail him out but overall solid. His skating was ofc beautiful though he never really showed off his top gear. A lot has been made of his straight line speed but he showed that he moves well in all directions, great edges, beauty pivots and had some quick turns to create room for himself that were nothing short of elite. So despite a somewhat quiet game he still flashed his quality.
    After the game one of his assistant coaches told one reporter that Broberg had been the teams best player during preseason and that it was a privilege to get to work with him. He especially lauded his focus and willingness to work on his game, staying after practice etc, this is something I’ve also heard from his former team as well as other sources around Skellefteå, extremely ambitious kid.

    Berglund shared Broberg’s sloppy start but also had a good game and was more involved than Broberg. After his midseason dip last year he’s become a bit of a whipping boy for some fans but this game his play didn’t match the negative verbal. He played on the PK and on PP2( both units got similar toi).He can be casual with the puck at times but he made a lot of smart plays, was physical, good positioning, good stick, found some nice spots inthe offensive zone. His lateral and backwards skating has always been fine but his first few steps and straight line speed has been an issue, to me it looked like he’s worked on it since last season.
    I like Berglund and think there’s a player there. I hope the Oilers sign him even if his season ends up being just average, my sense is that he’s a guy who could really benefit from a new setting and a new set of eyes to take that next step. He’s been with Skellefteå since his youth hockey days and they’ve done a great job developing him but I think both sides have become a bit too comfortable with each other. I’m not saying he’s in a bad situation or that he won’t develop this season, Broberg being there could actually turn out great for him, but I think there’s an extra gear to be found with a new perspective. Call it a hunch.

    In other SHL news former Flames first rounder Kerby Rychel who was supposed to play in the SHL for Örebro this season terminated his contract and left before playing a game. Officially for ”personal reasons” but according to reports he showed up over 20 lbs overweight and was hot garbage in practice so they decided on mutual termination. Sounds like someone pissing away his career. Always great when a Flames pick falls apart but I hope there aren’t any deeper issues behind it.

    “Skaal”

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Just an amazing source of info you are – thank you so much.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: The fact is, the coaches will have the last say, Bear’s transition passing could be the determining factor, as that ability is a true asset that this team lacks.

    Of course that fact is true – it also rings true for pretty much everything generally discussed and the conversations being had today/tonight. Not sure why my one post on the potential of one player is singled out but for your clear personal issue with me (as evidenced by prior bouts of “following me around the internet” to deride me on various platforms).

    Yup, his transition game is legit and likely NHL ready. The team has been lacking in that area but Bear does compete with Jones and Persson who have a transition skill-set as well as Bouchard and Samorukov (who I list separately given they are rookie pros).

  111. texmex says:

    Sami Hoffrén
    @shoffren
    If I would be a betting guy, right about now I would put my money on Puljujärvi staying and playing in Finland with Kärpät this year.

  112. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks, SP!

  113. jtblack says:

    With McD not skating, it has to be cause for concern. Last year the Oilers had perfect health from their 3 best forward. .. and managed 78 points.

    If one of McD, Drai or RNh were to miss 20+ games, I don’t think the team has near enough depth to win. If McD misses 20+ games, it’s lottery time …

  114. rickithebear says:

    Not a narative
    but based on 25 years of championship SC, EC, WC teams
    Repetative championship roster

    – high% 3-2-1 HD def sys coach
    Tippett was my 2 choices for VGK.

    – Top 10 +ve open HD save% goalie.
    Smith has been #2 a few years.

    – 3+ top 60 open HD density def Dmen
    Larsson Top 10 HD to his side facing 1St comp.
    Benning top 40 HD to his side vs 2 Nd/3rd
    Russell #1 closed corsi% dman in game.

    – strong top 125 fwd
    18-19 top
    42 -43 LW 12 evg; Drai 31 evg, Neal avg 14 evg last 3 seasons
    42-43 RW 13 evg; Kassian 14, Chaisson 13, Archibald 68gm 12 evg
    42-43 C 17 evg; Mcd 31, RNH 19
    Jurco top 20 LW 1.02 evg/60 17-18 last Lear in NHL.
    Granlund 16-17 #24 LW 16 evg same as Ovechkin, Nash, Schwartz

    – +ve goal diff from special teams.
    PP: Mcd, Drai, Gagner, RNH, Chaisson, Neal.

    PK:
    18-19 median 6.80 pkga/60
    Archibald #40 fwd 5.51 pkga/60
    17-18 median 7.21 pkga/60
    Archibald #9 fwd 3.61 pkga/60
    Khaira #13 fwd 4.08 pkga/60
    Mcdavid #80 fwd 6.66 pkga/60
    16-17 median 6.58 pkga/60
    Chaisson top 50 16-17 5.51 PKGA/60
    Brodziak #71 fwd 16-17 6.02 PKGA/60
    Kassian #103 fwd 16-17 6.88 PKGA/60
    Granlund #110 fwd 16-17 7.17 pkga/60

    We shall see.

  115. Munny says:

    Two things that have been running through my head this past weekend:

    1. I think there’s a very good chance we see the Oilers play a trap system this year.

    2. I think, early-on at least, that Neal will replace Nuge on the end-of-periods DeMoN line

  116. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Harpers Hair,

    What an absolute load of sh%t

  117. Munny says:

    Leroy Draisdale,

    It’s truly best not to feed Trolly McTrollface when he’s tripping full troll-train.

  118. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ughhh, I don’t know why, maybe its your posting style, but I consider the above posting your opinion as fact and your opinion being the “correct way”.

    A lawyer arguing that one should not assert one’s argument or position clearly and forcefully.

  119. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q:
    I love that comic, but I thought of Galdemore the Honkeycorn, from Clone High.

    https://clonehigh.fandom.com/wiki/Galdemore

    Holy hell… I have a vague recollection of that show but never watched. I may have to find that show!!

  120. Wilde says:

    jtblack,

    It’s lottery time either way.

    Which is fine, as you said with good seasons from the big three it was still a 78 point campaign last year. There are issues that would require radical and structural change to the team to hit the #10-15 area of the league.

    That said, this is the slow-play of the slow-plays. Just signing bodies (Haas, Archibald, Chiasson, Jurco, Nygard, Granlund) and running it back with the same group is going to open up options later in the 97/29 contracts, but at the cost of a written-off year.

    Legitimate strategy, but if they’re not at all going to communicate what they’re trying to do here, I feel they’re being dishonest by omission or are have some misconceptions about where the team is.

    For those who are being unrealistic about the probabilities of each outcome (65 pts, 70 pts, 75 pts, 80 pts, 85 pts, 90 pts, 95 pts), I have a feeling that there’ll be a revisionist interpretation of the period between last spring and now, where hands were tied and this was the only option.

    It’s not true. I tried (and failed) to get a post out before draft day on the possibilities of replicating Arizona’s 2017 draft day, where they traded their 7th overall pick for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta-

    Arizona had to buy into contention, paying various prices for much of their roster. Derek Stepan, Nick Schmaltz, Richard Panik, Brad Richardson, Alex Galchenyuk, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Micheal Grabner are eight of their top-9-by-aTOI forward group, and none are home-grown. Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Jordan Oesterle are similarly outsiders, making up four of the top-6-by-aTOI defense group.

    The Oilers also ‘have’ to buy into contention to a degree. Given, then, that they have to reach the ends that Arizona has, it’d be foolish to ignore their means. The neighbours of the talent nucleus of the Oilers roster aren’t good enough. When people invoke the term ‘supporting cast’ when talking about what the team is missing, or even ‘secondary scoring’, I don’t think that’s quite communicative (and this is scathing) of the real roster situation. The Oilers are missing the fourth guy on the ‘primary scorers’ list. Even more, either their 3rd D is a 4th, or their 4th D is a 6th.

    And, to Arizona:

    Derek Stepan had a lot of value. His contract, 6.5M until 2021, will have ran from his 25-year-old season to his 31-year-old season. The back five of those years remained at time of trade. Point production, contract status, age, and position appear to be the most broad points of value in trade for NHL teams. Stepan was a little below average as a top-line centre in production over the three seasons prior to the trade, and again, was 27-years-old. Another few factors? Stepan’s NMC was kicking in the next week. Some immediate-reaction thoughts on the Gorton vision of the trade coming from trusted (by me) and adept observers at BSB are here.

    Antti Raanta is another guy who came to the Rangers originally by trade, but not only was that at an earlier time than DeAngelo, but his stock went in the opposite direction during his time in New York. He was the best young(er) backup with starter potential on the market at the time – for price-point reference, Cam Talbot was the previous incumbent of that chair in the summer goalie market, and Philip Grubauer the subsequent one. You can place this mid-shelf goaltender asset as above the 3rd round pick-ish price of an Eddie Lack, Scott Darling, Ben Scrivens, but below the Frederick Anderson, Martin Jones level that commands a mid-late 1st round pick.

    Now, we need to zoom out and look at this trade like the equation that all trades are. With it all sitting disaggregated above, let’s put it back together with the easiest change to make, which conveniently makes one side of the trade entirely draft capital – making it a value that’s 1-to-1 with the present day, no deciding who in 2019 is the equivalent to the traded player in 2017.

    That change is replacing Tony DeAngelo with a 2nd round pick. This is an inaccurate judgement by its face, because the price of any player doesn’t stay the same from summer to summer, especially when it comes to young players. In this case, there were forces pulling the prospect’s value in opposite directions: translating OHL to AHL scoring in defensemen is not often a first year phenomenon, even among successes. I would count Caleb Jones as, to this point, a successfully developed prospect in terms of point production. You could not have said the same for certain after his rookie pro season. DeAngelo putting up 43 points in 69 games in that situation is a legitimate up arrow. At the same time, going to market with a player you traded for the summer prior is not only indicative that you’re not happy about their progression, but you’re also creating that indication, and conceding it in negotiation yourself.

    If it’s probably not true that the prospect’s value was the same, however, what that does for us, is it simultaneously helps close the gap between the 7th overall pick the Coyotes spent in the trade and the 8th overall the Oilers will hypothetically spend, and in general err on the side of caution – caution about projecting reality as a fan of a team involved. That’ll be the first little factor, among a few, that we’re going to add to try to close the gap between 7th and 8th.

    Now we’re here. There’s other ways to do this, it’s not as if the Oilers are missing defensive prospects to offer up for trade. In fact, it would probably be preferable to get proactive about upcoming logjams at the position in Bakersfield and Edmonton, and at the same time address the opposite situation existing at forward scoring.

    I hate to jerk everyone around, but we have to swing back to Edmonton’s needs. The response here should be Pavlovian. Skill wing, right-shot defense. It’s convenient that the number of assets required (most pressingly) matches the return of our analogy (two), but there’s a gulf in value in between an asset equivalent to 2017 Derek Stepan and 2017 Antti Raanta. Let’s try it both ways – although I have and will continue to argue that the most practical allocation of resources would be to spend more heavily on the forward(s). That argument can be made brief by just mentioning the two mechanics at play:

    1. The situation at wing is more dire – most teams have a much better 4th-best forward than Edmonton does, and;

    2. The penalty for purchase of a winger and a right-shot defenseman are literally the two opposite ends of the unofficial market arrangement that this league operates through. Compare the prices of players like Nino Niederreiter (both times), Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, Marcus Johansson, and so on; to the prices of literally any high-level right-shot defenseman – when the latter wasn’t being traded for another player of the same position. Simply, the price of the 25th-best LW in the NHL is radically lesser than the price of the 25-th best RD.

    I made a brief assessment of Stepan’s value earlier, we’re going to take that and run with it. We’re looking for a mid-20s, top-six producing forward with years left under contract. To be more specific, among forwards, Stepan was:

    – 41st in all-situations point totals from 2014-15 to 2016-17

    – 35th in P/GP in 2014/15 (60 GP min.)
    – 52nd in P/GP in 2015/16 (60 GP min.)
    – 80th in P/GP in 2016/17 (60 GP min.)

    And at 5v5:

    – 37th in P/60 from 2014-15 to 2016-17 (1200 TOI min.)
    – 17th in P/GP from 2014-2015 to 2016-17 (1200 TOI min.)

    I fished around for Stepan comparables that the Oilers could use and was pretty surprised. I think the biggest factor would be to find a /seller/ as opposed to a trade partner – look up the players in Stepan’s old cohort by those metrics above and you’ll find a ton of players that aren’t moving.

    Here are some of the examples I gathered:

    Chris Kreider

    All situations:

    – 98th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 64th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 101st in P/GP in 2017-18 (58 GP)
    – 95th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 49th in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 79th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Nikolaj Ehlers

    All situations:

    – 70th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 38th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 71st in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 117th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 32nd in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19 (2500 TOI min.)
    – 41st in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Brendan Gallagher

    All situations:

    – 108th in total points from 2016-18 to 2018-19
    – 165th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 96th in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 104th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 43rd in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 70th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Travis Konecny

    All situations:

    – 127th in total points from 2016-18 to 2018-19
    – 196ht in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 128th in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 116th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 50th in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 71st in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Even some of the smaller acquisitions this summer I feel like Edmonton missed out on. Miller, Burakovsky, Haula, De Haan, Gudas; a lot of players could help the team and a few of them could facilitate bigger moves like trading Nurse.

    Again, I’m not saying that the path taken was the worst one, or even a poor one at all. But it’s absolutely the most punishing for the fanbase and the star players in the short term – and it’ll be a shame if it’s swept under the rug as if there wasn’t a fork in the road.

  121. Munny says:

    texmex:
    Sami Hoffrén
    @shoffren
    If I would be a betting guy, right about now I would put my money on Puljujärvi staying and playing in Finland with Kärpät this year.

    Wouldn’t that be the odds-on favourite? Not the riskiest bet in the world, regardless.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    With McD not skating, it has to be cause for concern.Last year the Oilers had perfect health from their 3 best forward. .. and managed 78 points.

    If one of McD, Drai or RNh were to miss 20+ games, I don’t think the team has near enough depth to win.If McD misses 20+ games, it’s lottery time …

    He is skating, he’s been skating for months with no set back and his timeline is the same as originally provided – to be ready for training camp.

    As per McDavid, his is solely for reason of not taking contract and the time line was always for camp.

  123. HT Joe says:

    gimme shelter: The consensus seems to be all of Holland’s signings are 3rd,4th and 5th line potential. We do not have a extra top 6 forward amongst them. By November people might be calling for Holland’s head.

    No way… I’ll still be complaining about Chia (as well as his enablers, Burger Bob and Katz)

    In 2015, Chia inherited a team with 5 top line forwards (McDavid included), a good cap situation, 2 blue liners, a 2nd first round draft pick, and incredible potential overall.

    In 2019, Holland inherited 3 top line forwards, 3 blue liners, and a devastated cap situation.

    Holland kept his powder dry… barring Lucic injuring one of our 6 good players, or Holland committing a “Chia-poor” trade mid season, Holland will deserve a free pass this season.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    Harpers Hair,

    What an absolute load of sh%t

    Shooting the messenger and whistling past the graveyard are real things.

  125. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Shooting the messenger and whistling past the graveyard are real things.

    Can’t wait to see Petterson score 20 points less than last year. Canucks fans will come up with some excuses no doubt.

  126. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Wilde,

    100%.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: A lawyer arguing that one should not assert one’s argument or position clearly and forcefully.

    Not sure what that has to do with opinions in a sports forum.

    You avoided the question and substance completely if you would like to go back and engage in discourse and conversation?

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    jtblack,

    It’s lottery time either way.

    Which is fine, as you said with good seasons from the big three it was still a 78 point campaign last year. There are issues that would require radical and structural change to the team to hit the #10-15 area of the league.

    That said, this is the slow-play of the slow-plays. Just signing bodies (Haas, Archibald, Chiasson, Jurco, Nygard, Granlund) and running it back with the same group is going to open up options later in the 97/29 contracts, but at the cost of a written-off year.

    Legitimate strategy, but if they’re not at all going to communicate what they’re trying to do here, I feel they’re being dishonest by omission or are have some misconceptions about where the team is.

    For those who are being unrealistic about the probabilities of each outcome (65 pts, 70 pts, 75 pts, 80 pts, 85 pts, 90 pts, 95 pts), I have a feeling that there’ll be a revisionist interpretation of the period between last spring and now, where hands were tied and this was the only option.

    It’s not true. I tried (and failed) to get a post out before draft day on the possibilities of replicating Arizona’s 2017 draft day, where they traded their 7th overall pick for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta-

    I fished around for Stepan comparables that the Oilers could use and was pretty surprised. I think the biggest factor would be to find a /seller/ as opposed to a trade partner – look up the players in Stepan’s old cohort by those metrics above and you’ll find a ton of players that aren’t moving.

    Here are some of the examples I gathered:

    Chris Kreider

    All situations:

    – 98th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 64th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 101st in P/GP in 2017-18 (58 GP)
    – 95th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 49th in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 79th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Nikolaj Ehlers

    All situations:

    – 70th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 38th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 71st in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 117th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 32nd in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19 (2500 TOI min.)
    – 41st in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Brendan Gallagher

    All situations:

    – 108th in total points from 2016-18 to 2018-19
    – 165th in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 96th in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 104th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 43rd in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 70th in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Travis Konecny

    All situations:

    – 127th in total points from 2016-18 to 2018-19
    – 196ht in P/GP in 2016-17
    – 128th in P/GP in 2017-18
    – 116th in P/GP in 2018-19

    And at 5v5:

    – 50th in P/60 from 2016-17 to 2018-19
    – 71st in total points from 2016-17 to 2018-19

    Even some of the smaller acquisitions this summer I feel like Edmonton missed out on. Miller, Burakovsky, Haula, De Haan, Gudas; a lot of players could help the team and a few of them could facilitate bigger moves like trading Nurse.

    Again, I’m not saying that the path taken was the worst one, or even a poor one at all. But it’s absolutely the most punishing for the fanbase and the star players in the short term – and it’ll be a shame if it’s swept under the rug as if there wasn’t a fork in the road.

    Hockey isn’t baseball it turns out.

    Predictive values, other than getting older and accumulating injuries, are fluctuating, No?

    Hockey may be the most team system game in pro sports. One dominant athlete cannot determine outcomes, or even two.

    Stats have enormous value, but as fans currently we have no way to pick apart such a team game outside of visual tracking projects and trusting those involved.

    We have current examples of how coaching dramatically effects results with basically the same roster.

    That is where my hope lies this season – having high end top players and that most teams don’t, and a coach that tries to get the lessers, which are most, in place to do a defined job.

    Finally.

    That is what Woodcroft did. We haven’t seen it for whatever reason, and there are reasons I’m sure, at the NHL level.

  129. yeraslob says:

    That second line does look slow.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot: Can’t wait to see Petterson score 20 points less than last year. Canucks fans will come up with some excuses no doubt.

    Given health and either JT Miller or Michael Ferland on his wing, a reasonable expectation would be 20 more points. He’s the goods.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe: No way… I’ll still be complaining about Chia (as well as his enablers, Burger Bob and Katz)

    In 2015, Chia inherited a team with 5 top line forwards (McDavid included), a good cap situation, 2 blue liners, a 2nd first round draft pick, and incredible potential overall.

    In 2019, Holland inherited 3 top line forwards, 3 blue liners, and a devastated cap situation.

    Holland kept his powder dry… barring Lucic injuring one of our 6 good players, or Holland committing a “Chia-poor” trade mid season, Holland will deserve a free pass this season.

    On the cap situation, yes, Chia is fully culpable (Lucic, Russell, Manning, Koskinen, etc.), however, its tough to compare the cap situation with Drai and McDavid on ELCs to the current situation.

    Having to sign two elite players will have an effect on the cap structure of every team.

  132. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Hockey isn’t baseball it turns out.

    Predictive values, other than getting older and accumulating injuries, are fluctuating, No?

    Hockey may be the most team system game in pro sports. One dominant athlete cannot determine outcomes, or even two.

    Stats have enormous value, but as fans currently we have no way to pick apart such a team game outside of visual tracking projects and trusting those involved.

    We have current examples of how coaching dramatically effects results with basically the same roster.

    That is where my hope lies this season – having high end top players and that most teams don’t, and a coach that tries to get the lessers, which are most, in place to do a defined job.

    Finally.

    That is what Woodcroft did. We haven’t seen it for whatever reason, and there are reasons I’m sure, at the NHL level.

    If everyone buys into Tippett’s system we make the playoffs our wild card will be our deadly power play.

  133. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not sure what that has to do with opinions in a sports forum.

    You avoided the question and substance completely if you would like to go back and engage in discourse and conversation?

    I had clearly stated my position. And you stated a different one. As training camp unfolds, which position is correct will become apparent and obvious.

  134. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Given health and either JT Miller or Michael Ferland on his wing, a reasonable expectation would be 20 more points. He’s the goods.

    Unfortunately for you, dreams will be broken.

    If you want to make a large monetary wager on Petterson’s over/under 80 points please let me know.

  135. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: On the cap situation, yes, Chia is fully culpable (Lucic, Russell, Manning, Koskinen, etc.), however, its tough to compare the cap situation with Drai and McDavid on ELCs to the current situation.

    Having to sign two elite players will have an effect on the cap structure of every team.

    Paying your five best players what they are worth has no real impact on the cap. It is what only what you pay the other eignteen players that matters to cap management.

    In fact, the first rule of cap management arguably is to pay your five best players what they are worth. That is not where one penny pinches.

  136. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot: Unfortunately for you, dreams will be broken.

    If you want to make a large monetary wager on Petterson’s over/under 80 points please let me know.

    No problem.
    A Woodguy on over 80 with minimum 75 GP.

  137. HT Joe says:

    CallighenMan: Troll.You really are an A-hole.

    Don’t shoot the messenger… but the author on the other hand…
    “McDavid’s made one playoff appearance and doesn’t appear convinced he’ll ever make another.”
    and
    “So it’s getting near time for McDavid to fix it. If he wants to leave, he’s going to have to say that out loud in public.”

    Those are lines from a newspaper? Cathal Kelly of the Globe and Mail may just be the Edmonton Oilers of newspaper columnists.

  138. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Given health and either JT Miller or Michael Ferland on his wing, a reasonable expectation would be 20 more points. He’s the goods.

    I still love watching Phil Esposito rip into the flake Nucks fans a proud Canadian moment. The Canucks have never won jack shit and they should stay in the closet until they do.

  139. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: No problem.
    A Woodguy on over 80 with minimum 75 GP.

    Already worried about a potential injury to tom thumb? I would be too.

    Be a true believer. Put up $1000 on over 80. Games played non withstanding.

    If not then scuttle away to the Nucks board.

  140. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

    Nice post. I share many of the same sentiments. Also, the Oilers weren’t supposed to break out in 16-17. And they WERE supposed to be good in 17-18. You just don’t know.

  141. jp says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks so much for the updates. Please keep them coming!

  142. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    1. That’s true for baseball as well

    2. Smaller spreads of impact of all individual players don’t mean it’s more of a team ‘system’ game, it means there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

    That doesn’t point to ‘systems’ being more impactful at all, it just means that a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

    To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important, you’d have to figure out how to best control for every other factor (deployment, age, etc) in the game and compare player performance with different coaches or systems.

    Also;

    Scungilli Slushy: Stats have enormous value, but as fans currently we have no way to pick apart such a team game outside of visual tracking projects and trusting those involved.

    We have current examples of how coaching dramatically effects results with basically the same roster.

    Aren’t those examples reliant on stats for analysis?

  143. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Was actually talking about the article. Apologies if you took it otherwise, no offence intended.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Paying your five best players what they are worth has no real impact on the cap.It is what only what you pay the other eignteen players that matters to cap management.

    In fact, the first rule of cap management arguably is to pay your five best players what they are worth.That is not where one penny pinches.

    I disagree with #1 conceptually.

    #2 is not fact – there are no such accepted rules of cap management.

    Either way, I stand by my point that comparing the cap structure with Drai and McDavid on ELCs’, even taking in to account bonuses, is different that the cap structure with them signed to $21M even with that being more than value.

  145. Harpers Hair says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    Harpers Hair,

    Was actually talking about the article. Apologies if you took it otherwise, no offence intended.

    No worries.
    Cathal Kelly is somewhat controversial but don’t think his observations should be dismissed out of hand.

  146. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course that fact is true – it also rings true for pretty much everything generally discussed and the conversations being had today/tonight. Not sure why my one post on the potential of one player is singled out but for your clear personal issue with me (as evidenced by prior bouts of “following me around the internet” to deride me on various platforms).

    Yup, his transition game is legit and likely NHL ready.The team has been lacking in that area but Bear does compete with Jones and Persson who have a transition skill-set as well as Bouchard and Samorukov (who I list separately given they are rookie pros).

    The fact of the matter is, you seem to gifting Jones and Persson spots on the Oilers training camp has even opened. Jones has shown he is probably first in line for a spot, but Persson hasn’t even been on the smaller ice surface yet, and is an unknown until he proves himself. Bear had some injury set backs last year, but remember he did get to go to Europe with the big club last fall, so obviously he is still in the big picture contrary to your beliefs. Just because you choose to post your blogs on numerous other sites that I happen to frequent doesn’t mean I can’t express my views if they happen to be different than yours at times.

  147. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thank you for taking the time to provide the rest of us with these updates. Always look forward to your posts. Pure gold.

  148. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Crossing my fingers, saying a prayer and hoping for the best for Connor. Knee ligament damage is a bitch. You almost never have the same joint stability post injury as you did pre injury, whether you have surgery or not.

  149. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    godot10:
    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Lagesson/Jones/Russell Benning(I’m thinking Lagesson wins the job.)

    is the correct deployment of the blueline.

    One has to put Joel Persson in the best place for him to succeed, since his success is crucial for the OIlers, and that is with Klefbom.

    And one isn’t asking for Benning to do too much.He is a very good 3rd pairing D.

    Larsson needs to rebound after a poor season last year.

    And lets see if Nurse deserves and earns his next contract.

    ——————————————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Thumbs up.

  150. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    1. That’s true for baseball as well

    2. Smaller spreads of impact of all individual players don’t mean it’s more of a team ‘system’ game, it means there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

    That doesn’t point to ‘systems’ being more impactful at all, it just means that a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

    To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important, you’d have to figure out how to best control for every other factor (deployment, age, etc) in the game and compare player performance with different coaches or systems.

    Also;

    Aren’t those examples reliant on stats for analysis?

    Well there is likely to be a larger spread between best and worst players in hockey than in basketball and baseball because they are drawing from a far smaller pool of potential players.
    Players in hockey just can’t have as big an impact as they are limited in opportunities due to the fast paced nature of the game.

    I think its clear that coaching/systems can have a big effect in hockey. like the Islanders improving substantially despite losing their star. Not sure how you even begin to quantify coaching impact though.

  151. Glovjuice says:

    Jordan:
    I think a lot of people here are really underrating Nygard and Haas.Nygard especially -I think there is every chance this guy gets a shot at a top 6 role, and makes Kenny look like a genius for signing him.He’s known for his 2-way game, his speed, and his scoring. Oh, and 5 years pro experience.

    Tell me, what wingers we have with that kind of skill set?

    The list is very, very short.

    Leon – Connor – Kassian
    Nygard – Nuge – Neal
    Granlund – Marody – Archibald
    Khaira – Haas – Chiasson
    Ex – Gagner, Jurco

    I recognize Nygard doesn’t have NHL exp.But that’s not nearly as significant for a winger, as it is for a centre, D, or Goalie.

    I think he’s likely a great complement to Nuge and Neal.

    I also think there aren’t enough good centres to keep Marody off the roster.

    I think people who don’t see this team improving are too focused on past performance, and not on the players and their potential to achieve in the roles they’re in.

    Looking forwards to seeing this team start playing!

    Agreed. Nygard will surprise and score 20 with that line. Solves the speed problem on the second line.

  152. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Paying your five best players what they are worth has no real impact on the cap.It is what only what you pay the other eignteen players that matters to cap management.

    In fact, the first rule of cap management arguably is to pay your five best players what they are worth.That is not where one penny pinches.

    I agree with this, although if you can get lucky and sign under market you win short term, although you likely have to overpay to resign the next deal.

    I’m thinking MacKinnon. No reason for Connor or Leon to feel jilted, they were signed high for the market at the time. Nathan was signed perhaps at market value, but he has been a clear league top player from the get go.

    This is where resentment starts unless the player doesn’t care or buys into a winning team depth scenario. Team has to win though.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: The fact of the matter is, you seem to gifting Jones and Persson spots on the Oilers training camp has even opened. Jones has shown he is probably first in line for a spot, but Persson hasn’t even been on the smaller ice surface yet, and is an unknown until he proves himself. Bear had some injury set backs last year, but remember he did get to go to Europe with the big club last fall, so obviously he is still in the big picture contrary to your beliefs. Just because you choose to post your blogs on numerous other sites that I happen to frequent doesn’t mean I can’t express my views if they happen to be different than yours at times.

    I’m not “gifting anyone spots. I’m making my prediction on what he opening night roster will look like based on everything I’ve seen, read and heard.

    I’m not sure how one can possibly come to the conclusion that I’m “gifting Persson a spot” when I’ve posted dozens of times that I’m not even sure he’s an NHL d-man at 5 on 5 and I am very hopeful he is.

    I’m not sure how anyone can state that I’m gifting Jones a spot when I’ve been clear that I’d prefer Lagesson at 3LD.

    Such odd statements about my thoughts for someone that professes to know me so well.

    I can’t recall ever saying Bear is not in the team’s big picture. I have him below Jones and Lagesson personally. Considering he played zero NHL games last year and Jones close to 20……

  154. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not “gifting anyone spots. I’m making my prediction on what he opening night roster will look like based on everything I’ve seen, read and heard.

    I’m not sure how one can possibly come to the conclusion that I’m “gifting Persson a spot” when I’ve posted dozens of times that I’m not even sure he’s an NHL d-man at 5 on 5 and I am very hopeful he is.

    I’m not sure how anyone can state that I’m gifting Jones a spot when I’ve been clear that I’d prefer Lagesson at 3LD.

    Such odd statements about my thoughts for someone that professes to know me so well.

    I can’t recall ever saying Bear is not in the team’s big picture.I have him below Jones and Lagesson personally.Considering he played zero NHL games last year and Jones close to 20……

    This is funny, we pontificate over roster possibilities and offer our conjecture to other blog readers here, but ultimately our opinions are inconsequential. As such we’re incapable of gifting roster spots.

  155. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: On the cap situation, yes, Chia is fully culpable (Lucic, Russell, Manning, Koskinen, etc.), however, its tough to compare the cap situation with Drai and McDavid on ELCs to the current situation.

    Having to sign two elite players will have an effect on the cap structure of every team.

    When Chia took over, he had cap space to sign McDavid (~$3M), Sekera ($5.5M), Talbot ($1.5M), Letestu ($1.8M), Schultz ($3.9M)… I think Chia signed all of those players (I’m trying to be fair… MacT re-signed Yakupov earlier in the spring that year). If I’m right, Chia had $16M to play with that offseason. Holland simply didn’t have that luxury when he inherited a bottom third team.

    Chia had enough salarying work with to build a winner but he messed it up and squandered opportunity. Holland simply did not have the cap flexibility to fix the Oilers this offseason (and because of the Nurse extension next summer, Holland won’t even have significant cap flexibility next year either).

    If we are being fair to Holland, we can’t really get too mad at him until the 2021 season gets started. YMMV

  156. CallighenMan says:

    HT Joe: Don’t shoot the messenger… but the author on the other hand…
    “McDavid’s made one playoff appearance and doesn’t appear convinced he’ll ever make another.”
    and
    “So it’s getting near time for McDavid to fix it. If he wants to leave, he’s going to have to say that out loud in public.”

    Those are lines from a newspaper? Cathal Kelly of the Globe and Mail may just be the Edmonton Oilers of newspaper columnists.

    Article aside, I stand by the label I give it (dsf,hh,cass, and who knows what other handles it uses on other sites)

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    1. That’s true for baseball as well

    2. Smaller spreads of impact of all individual players don’t mean it’s more of a team ‘system’ game, it means there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

    That doesn’t point to ‘systems’ being more impactful at all, it just means that a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

    To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important, you’d have to figure out how to best control for every other factor (deployment, age, etc) in the game and compare player performance with different coaches or systems.

    Also;

    Aren’t those examples reliant on stats for analysis?

    1. Then there is little short term hope for stats in hockey because baseball is a static sport. YMMV.

    2. Do you really believe baseball and basketball aren’t more star dominant sports? That would be the first time I read that.

    3. “To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important,” I appreciate those of you that have the math and computer skills to do that type of work. Or the time. For me as a long time close observer of NHL hockey, I find I’m rarely surprised by final outcomes.

    I have stayed here for years because I love the analysis some can bring. There has been a sharp drop off in posting of numbers for a few reasons, but one I think is those capable took it as far as is possible given available date, after a few years. Probably why the forefathers went in house – curiosity about more data.

    Last season when turncoats here were singing the praises of Calgary I commented I didn’t buy it. I also said early last season all of the ‘fan boy’ love of the Bolts was placed wrongly. I said the Caps would likely not repeat. Leafs would Flame out. How did I guess right?

    Simply watch puck movement, which way the ice tilts, team speed, and who has a competent goalie. The final piece is which team is healthy and which team ‘will’ play through playoff BS or in other words desire?

    Season SV% and Goal Diff are also tells for playoff success.

    What else has been shown to work much?

    There are too many moving pieces and without on ice perpetual data it isn’t possible to finely break down hockey.

    As I keep saying the vast majority of players are heavily usage dependent. We do have some QoC data (thanks WG and GM) but context is still missing.

    So we cannot tell what will happen each season and over the season or we’d all be rich betting on Cup winners.

  158. Glovjuice says:

    Harpers Hair: Given health and either JT Miller or Michael Ferland on his wing, a reasonable expectation would be 20 more points. He’s the goods.

    Agreed. Without injury he is a top ten scorer every year for a decade.

  159. Rebillled says:

    Harpers Hair,

    His observations should be completely dismissed.

    What a good read. Is he your favourite psychologist/genius writer?

    “Canucks fans will be really depressed this year. 50 years no cups.’

  160. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: No worries.
    Cathal Kelly is somewhat controversial but don’t think his observations should be dismissed out of hand.

    That wasn’t journalism; it was an article on the same level as Hockeybuzz. He based his argument on McDavid’s tone of voice and body language. It was truly cringe-worthy and meaningless.

  161. Georgexs says:

    Tippett took over in PHX in 09-10.

    Let’s compare the before and after:

    PHX 08-09

    PTS 79
    GF 205
    GA 249

    PHX 09-10

    PTS 107
    GF 211
    GA 196

    Difference

    PTS +28
    GF +6
    GA -53

    His top scoring forwards in 09-10:

    Doan, 55
    Lombardi, 53
    Vrbata, 43
    Hanzal, 34
    Upshall, 32
    Fiddler, 30

    His defensemen by TOI:

    Michalek, 22:39
    Aucoin, 22:33
    Jovanovski, 21:38
    Yandle, 20:14
    Lepisto, 18:14
    Vandermeer, 17:41

    His two goalies were Bryzgalov and LaBarbera:

    Bryzgalov sv%

    08-09 .906
    09-10 .920

    LaBarbera sv%

    08-09 .901 (w/ LAK and VAN)
    09-10 .928

    Tippett has a successful turnaround on his resume (2 if you want to count his first year w/ DAL; but those circumstances wouldn’t be relevant to what he’s going to find here). From appearances, he found ways to win with not a lot.

    From 00-01 (when the league expanded to 30 teams) to 12-13, predicting that last year’s playoff teams would make this year’s playoffs and that last year’s non-playoff teams would not resulted in an accuracy of 69%.

    From 13-14 on, the accuracy of predictions based on that rule has dropped to 61%.

    There’s more turnover year-to-year in playoff teams. It’s not THAT unusual to see a sub .500 team turn it around in a season and qualify. CMD’s Oilers have already done it once. They have a coach this time who’s also done it with his previous team. And league scoring in 09-10 was averaging 2.84 per team per game, compared to 3.04 per team per game in 18-19.

    I’ve been looking at how well the offensive potential of a team (as measured by the number of top 3, top 6, and top 9 forwards a team starts a season with) predicts whether a team qualifies for the playoffs. My results so far suggest to me that, factoring in whether the team qualified in the previous season, this measure of offensive potential doesn’t really predict that much.

    Turnaround teams aren’t always bursting with top 6 talent. Adding top 6 talent to these non-playoff teams doesn’t seem to be the secret sauce to get them into the playoffs. The qualifying teams usually get more offense than you’d expect given the talent they had going in, and they usually cut a whole whack of goals off their GA.

    Tippett could throw up his hands and call out his players by February… or November. But I really don’t think he will. He’s seen worse. He already has one impressive turnaround on his resume. I’m guessing he’s going to have one more.

  162. rickithebear says:

    You win by passing puck around to each other.
    Oh wait!
    You win by shooting it in the net.
    I was confused by the 90% on here who concentrate on points with largest portion being points from passing.

    I must remember passers recieve points from goal scorers.

    Onless some on here are confused what the 1st, line, 2nd line, 3rd line, 4th line goal rates are for LW, C, RW.

    Since PP and PK are units not structured lines like even.

    We rally need to look at evg last year.
    1st line #1 to 31
    LW 33 – 16 evg
    C 37 – 20 evg
    RW 35 – 16 evg

    2nd line #32 to #62
    LW 16 – 10 evg
    C 19 – 13 evg
    RW 15 – 10 evg

    3rd line #63 to #93
    LW 10 – 6 evg
    C 13 – 11 evg
    RW 10 – 4 evg

    4th line #94 to #124
    LW 6 – 2 evg
    C 11 – 7 evg
    RW 4 – 0 evg

    Someone on here said we need a 2nd liner (10 evg RW) to punch Chaisson (#43 RW 13 evg) down to we’re he belongs.
    Someone has up and down confused.

    Ryan:
    Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
    Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

    It is you.

    You confuse points vs goals as to what generates winning.
    Guys who generate goals is what we want.
    Cause that is what wins.
    The OBC still has this 80’s belief in passing the puck in the net.

    We have HD area def structures and goalies who move the torso with the puck with pads on the ice.

    Orr’s famous goal would not go in vs today’s goalies

    Granlund
    18-19 #60 LW 10 evg
    16-17 #24 LW 16 evg

    Archibald #51 RW 12 evg

    Gagner
    18-19 Edm 25gm 5 evg
    17-18 VCR #65 RW 7 evg
    16-17 CBJ #59 RW 10 evg

    Khaira DZ specialist
    18-19 LW 2 evg definite 46.22% off FO zone start
    17-18 #59 LW 10 evg 50% OFF FO ZS
    He had sub 40% his first 25gm of career.
    Definitely top 6 fwd with top 9 zone start.

    Haas is a noted DZ specialist
    and
    Nygard was 2 Nd best player at generating pts ( scoring goals) in SHL.

  163. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    2. Do you really believe baseball and basketball aren’t more star dominant sports? That would be the first time I read that.

    You read wrong. There’s a difference between ‘star dominance’ and ‘systems impact’. They’re entirely unrelated. How can any read of the following statement –

    Wilde: there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

    Wilde: a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

    – bring you to believe I think the opposite is true? There’s no double negative or anything. Again, I’m saying that ‘systems’, which would represent a modifier on each player of a team running different systems, has nothing to do with the differential between the greatest and least value being modified.

    All I can guess is that you’re conflating just ‘systems’ with total environment/deployment.

    As for everything else, I believe these two bits:

    Scungilli Slushy: For me as a long time close observer of NHL hockey, I find I’m rarely surprised by final outcomes.

    and

    Scungilli Slushy: Last season when turncoats here were singing the praises of Calgary I commented I didn’t buy it. I also said early last season all of the ‘fan boy’ love of the Bolts was placed wrongly. I said the Caps would likely not repeat. Leafs would Flame out. How did I guess right?

    have the same root cause – confirmation bias.

    All of this stuff is probabilistic. Tampa Bay can lose in the playoffs while still having been the team with the highest chance of winning.

    The overwhelming probability is that a team /won’t/ win the cup. How is predicting they won’t win two in a row a falsification of anything?

    This is a huge problem with the mainstream criticism of analytics. It must answer for all of its perceived failings in ways that what came before never did.

  164. rickithebear says:

    GeorgeXS
    You are 12 years behind my work.

    The very first thing Indid was look at the 2 win mechanisms.
    GF and GA
    Looked at what top teams advance to final 8 and Reach competing for championships

    I went back years and Now it is 25 years of the same answers.

    I presented top3, top 6, and top 9 team depth ages ago on HF boards.

    It was one of the components of the structure.
    But not the. Most critical in first 2 rounds.
    But can be the reason for advancing if like GA structure depth teams meet.

    We are in 2019 and people on here here Perception of what an 1st, 2nd, 3 rd line driver of winning is so poorly informed.

    5 yrs ago I had finalized my cup core roster.
    What is now 25 yrs of Championship structure.

    Vegas selected 100% of the players & head coach available that fit my roster structure.
    They won a championship in their first year.

    Florida lacked the 125 fwd depth.
    But they were structured for playoff GA competitiveness.
    Won a championship in their 3rd season.
    Having the best Open HD shot table hockey movement goalie in the game helped.

    It was a dman that made the final with 3 diffrent teams that was the origional identifier for elite HD dmen.

    Finals in Florida, Buffalo, Calgary.

    Itbeas funny He referred to that goalie as a Table Hockey Goalie 40 years after I observed Ron Gunville Table Hockey Goalie movement hit rate.

  165. rickithebear says:

    George XS:

    One of my 40+ theories is baseline performance.
    You want the best base system play teammates.

    They have really low mistake rates.
    So they are players you can rely on to be were the system demands.
    Allows you to look at structure and Identify were the play is going to break down.
    So you can use that for retrieval or attack in multi phase penetration sports.
    I noticed this early on in Soccer, Football, Hockey, Basketball, and then Rugby.

    I call the theory Belichek and Me!

    Media & fans look at top plays which are low % of overall play.

    Sheldon Souray has really dramatic blow by failures.
    So fans, media and scouting get what I call “False eye affect”

    Dramatic blow byes and he is an awful Dman.

    Yet when you look at protection of HD area.
    Penetration he allowed.
    Open shots he allowed
    Mistakes resulting in goals per 30 shifts he was one of the best 1st comp dmen in the game.

    Look for Low rate mistake baseline play.

    It is important that
    A goal causing mistake is just 1 mistake.

    Whether it is a dramatic blow by
    Or
    A slight position beat allowing a goal tipped in front of the net.

    In penetration sports the base play of defence has to be very high standard of non mistake play.

    Off can fail a lot and still bee effective.

    I had forgot to put this in my notes.

    Bloody chemo memory affect.

  166. PREDICKTER says:

    Random thoughts:
    Woman who fly upside down have crack up
    Predicting the past is easy, the future not so much, but given my handle lets give it a try
    ” the sun will rise tomorrow” / I guess that wasn’t so hard
    Read earlier “is it just me or does that 2nd line look slow?” Did I miss some games?
    I’m pretty sure no one has seen that line play yet.
    PTS2PNDR says “the team is the sum of its parts”. BINGO. This is why coach Tippet is probably
    the biggest factor to start the season. Seems he has done a pretty good job in the past of evaluating the players he has to work with. Lets hope all that video watching he’s doing this summer prepares him well. Nobody has anyway of knowing how this season will work out for our beloved Oilers, but
    hope is a beautiful thing. I for one will be cheering them on through good and bad like I have for the last, well since they’ve been in the league, because I’m that old. Still remember the first time I heard Messier’s name, listening on the radio in northern Alberta on the way home from hockey practice, get into a scrap and beat the other guy silly, made me a Messier fan instantly. Went to his sweater retirement ceremony in Edmonton, sitting against the Zamboni rail, I was leaning over when he came out with the cup raised over his head and was only a couple of inches from touching it. One of my greatest memories.

    GO OILERS GO

  167. John Chambers says:

    That Cathal Kelly article is aggravating.

    At the root of it is the idea that cities like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa don’t deserve nice things.

    Fair point that the team has been poor, largely from bad signings and players in key positions not panning out, but things ebb and flow in the NHL and Edmonton will soon have a number of players on ELC’s helping the big club.

    Would it be better for McDavid if he got traded to Chicago, or Dallas? Would his life be better and would he be guaranteed a shot at the cup?

    Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in a young man’s lifetime. That the Oilers missed the playoffs the past couple of seasons due to lousy goaltending and poor management doesn’t offer rationale to wanting to abruptly leave.

  168. Professor Q says:

    So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

    http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

    Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

    Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

  169. Harlekiini says:

    Munny: Wouldn’t that be the odds-on favourite?Not the riskiest bet in the world, regardless.

    texmex:
    Sami Hoffrén
    @shoffren
    If I would be a betting guy, right about now I would put my money on Puljujärvi staying and playing in Finland with Kärpät this year.

    According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

  170. Harlekiini says:

    Professor Q: According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

    Why in the world would this news be on MTV?

    I should have been more accurate, but wasn’t sure whether or not to post a link as I’ve never written here before. I meant Mtv that is a finnish tv channel and a media house.

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Bare minimum lists are fun. Here is mine:

    1) 3 Top 6 wingers
    2) 1 3C
    3) 1 Starting Goalie
    4) 1 2RHD

    This roster is so bad lol.

    4) If wishes were horses… we need a 1RD, not a 2RD. Larsson is that guy.

    This isn’t a priority and perhaps Bouchard can fill this role 2-3 years down the road, but I wouldn’t be opposed to targeting a guy like Spurgeon next summer if the term is reasonable and his play hasn’t dropped off. By then we’ll have some idea about Persson, Bear, Lagesson and Jones – and more clarity on Nurse, too.

  172. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, Staples opinion differs than mine and that’s fine.

    Sounds like Woodcroft’s does too.

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr:
    What gives me hope.
    Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

    Bold prediction:

    1) by Christmas, the Oilers will be in last place largely due to both goalies imploding.
    2) Starrett gets called up.
    3) the Oilers go on a hot streak and squeak into the playoffs.
    4) Stanley Cup BABY!

    Bookmark this post.

  174. v4ance says:

    ArmchairGM: Bold prediction:

    1) by Christmas, the Oilers will be in last place largely due to both goalies imploding.
    2) Starrett gets called up.
    3) the Oilers go on a hot streak and squeak into the playoffs.
    4) Stanley Cup BABY!

    Bookmark this post.

    Un-bold prediction:

    1) The Oilers will be 10 pts behind a playoff spot by Christmas because Koskinen is still the same Koskinen from last year and Smith… is 37 and worn out and performs as badly as he was during last year’s regular season.

    2) Starrett gets called up, Wells gets called up, Benson gets called up, Lagesson gets called up plus a few more “on the cusp” prospects to get good 10-20 game trials in the NHL

    3)The Oilers still lose their way to 10th in the West

    4) We end the year with a slight improvement to 85 pts and win the draft lottery cuz that’s the only thing we’re good at. BOOM!

    Bookmark this post.

  175. v4ance says:

    Mark Divver@MarkDivver

    PC’s Hayden Hawkey headed to Washington Capitals training camp on a PTO

  176. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: I like Berglund and think there’s a player there. I hope the Oilers sign him even if his season ends up being just average, my sense is that he’s a guy who could really benefit from a new setting and a new set of eyes to take that next step. He’s been with Skellefteå since his youth hockey days and they’ve done a great job developing him but I think both sides have become a bit too comfortable with each other. I’m not saying he’s in a bad situation or that he won’t develop this season, Broberg being there could actually turn out great for him, but I think there’s an extra gear to be found with a new perspective. Call it a hunch.

    Excellent report – thank you!

    This section on Berglund struck a chord with me. It wasn’t long ago that Berglund was considered a more valuable prospect than Lagesson, and I think he can get back into the conversation with a strong season next to Broberg. And thanks to Broberg. If Broberg is his partner this year Berglund will be getting about 10x the attention from Oilers scouts as he did last year.

    Also, Holland has 4 defensemen who lose their waiver eligibility next summer: Lagesson, Jones, Bear and Persson. He’ll be watching them closely this season and making decisions on their futures next summer – meaning that there will be openings in Bakersfield next year. What better way to transition Broberg to North America than to bring over his partner and experienced pro Berglund? And the following year, what better way to transition to the NHL?

    I say the Broberg pick is turning into a golden opportunity for Berglund, hopefully he seizes it with both hand and doesn’t let go.

    A ticket to ride, as they say.

  177. v4ance says:

    Corey Pronman@coreypronman

    Farm system #9: Edmonton Oilers

    Yay!

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: For those who are being unrealistic about the probabilities of each outcome (65 pts, 70 pts, 75 pts, 80 pts, 85 pts, 90 pts, 95 pts), I have a feeling that there’ll be a revisionist interpretation of the period between last spring and now, where hands were tied and this was the only option.

    It’s not true.

    Agree with your post, and especially this quote. We have, in fact, been hearing how Holland’s hands were tied all summer already.

  179. ArmchairGM says:

    Glovjuice: Agreed. Nygard will surprise and score 20 with that line. Solves the speed problem on the second line.

    That would be beautiful.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    HT Joe: If I’m right, Chia had $16M to play with that offseason. Holland simply didn’t have that luxury when he inherited a bottom third team.

    The roster Holland inherited wasn’t as good as the one Chiarelli did, but Holland has spent $11.25M on roster contracts and has about $750k in space above that, so as far as cap space / spending money it’s not as far off as you think.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Sounds like Woodcroft’s does too.

    Have you heard Woodcroft utter one negative word about any of his players?

  182. ArmchairGM says:

    Georgexs: Tippett could throw up his hands and call out his players by February… or November. But I really don’t think he will. He’s seen worse. He already has one impressive turnaround on his resume. I’m guessing he’s going to have one more.

    We can only HOPE.

  183. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: The overwhelming probability is that a team /won’t/ win the cup. How is predicting they won’t win two in a row a falsification of anything?

    I predict that every team will fall short of winning the Cup next year. I’ll be right on 96.77% of my prediction.

    Thank you, thank you! I also do lottery numbers and baseball scores, if anyone is interested.

    Play the odds, they say.

  184. ArmchairGM says:

    PREDICKTER: ” the sun will rise tomorrow” / I guess that wasn’t so hard

    You lose. It’s grey and rainy here – no sun!

    PREDICKTER: Read earlier “is it just me or does that 2nd line look slow?” Did I miss some games?
    I’m pretty sure no one has seen that line play yet.

    Pretty sure those wingers aren’t new to the league.

  185. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    That Cathal Kelly article is aggravating.

    At the root of it is the idea that cities like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa don’t deserve nice things.

    Fair point that the team has been poor, largely from bad signings and players in key positions not panning out, but things ebb and flow in the NHL and Edmonton will soon have a number of players on ELC’s helping the big club.

    Would it be better for McDavid if he got traded to Chicago, or Dallas? Would his life be better and would he be guaranteed a shot at the cup?

    Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in a young man’s lifetime. That the Oilers missed the playoffs the past couple of seasons due to lousy goaltending and poor management doesn’t offer rationale to wanting to abruptly leave.

    Substitute “McDavid” for “Marner” and most of that article stays the same.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q:
    So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

    http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

    Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

    Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

    “Jesse is a fly breeder whose physics, skills and talent will surely be enough for the NHL. ”

    Thank you, google translate!

  187. gimme shelter says:

    I first read about Jesse signing a contract in Finland and then I came here. I am of the belief he stays there for the year and then gets traded. Also I hope he performs well over there to raise his tradeable quality. At this point I would like other peoples opinions on what we could trade him for or for who?
    Another constant in Edmonton is that we lose at trades the Lucic , Neal trade being an exception.
    If anybody believes Chiarelli won any trades please raise their right hand. Now Holland is in charge.
    What can he get?

  188. ArmchairGM says:

    Harlekiini: I should have been more accurate, but wasn’t sure whether or not to post a link as I’ve never written here before. I meant Mtv that is a finnish tv channel and a media house.

    Welcome!

  189. ArmchairGM says:

    v4ance: Un-bold prediction:

    1) The Oilers will be 10 pts behind a playoff spot by Christmas because Koskinen is still the same Koskinen from last year and Smith… is 37 and worn out and performs as badly as he was during last year’s regular season.

    2) Starrett gets called up, Wells gets called up, Benson gets called up, Lagesson gets called up plus a few more “on the cusp” prospects to get good 10-20 game trials in the NHL

    3)The Oilers still lose their way to 10th in the West

    4) We end the year with a slight improvement to 85 pts and win the draft lottery cuz that’s the only thing we’re good at.BOOM!

    Bookmark this post.

    *grins*

  190. jp says:

    Harlekiini:
    According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

    Thanks, sounds like you’re plugged in. We’d appreciate any updates through the season if you’re watching/following at all closely.

  191. godot10 says:

    Professor Q:
    So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

    http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

    Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

    Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

    The December option means nothing. Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

    Edit: I posted this in the morning without drinking a cup of coffee. The OIlers can bring him back.

  192. Professor Q says:

    godot10: The December option means nothing.Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

    So, only the team that hold his rights, then, and it would be for next year regardless?

  193. Harlekiini says:

    The deal with Puljujärvi and Kärpät has been all over sports news here in Finland, so at least at the moment it’s rather easy to follow him. I’m not sure how much I have to offer, but at least I can link and translate some of the news about him during the season if anything interesting comes up. On that note, my english is not exactly perfect, so sorry if my writing is weird at times.

    One thing that I find interesting is that there have been some opinions that it’s not a good idea for Puljujärvi to come back to Finland. The point is that Puljujärvis problems seem to be related to living abroad, so it would have made more sense to go and play in Sweden or Switzerland rather than to go back to Oulu. Here is a link to a column about that: https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nakokulma-jesse-puljujarven-nhl-ura-vakavasti-uhattuna-onko-tuttu-ja-turvallinen-oulu-paras-paikka-juuri-tassa-vaiheessa-uraa/7525824

  194. jp says:

    godot10: The December option means nothing.Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

    Is that correct? This is from Wiki:

    “Players who play ice hockey outside North America during a regular season and who are not on loan from or whose playing rights are not already owned by an NHL club (that is, the player is not already on a team’s 90-player reserve list such as a qualified restricted free agent or a draft pick) must also be placed on waivers if they are signed to play in the NHL. If the player is picked up by another NHL club on waivers, the player must be placed on waivers again before a further trade or loan can take place.”

    I think that rule only applies to UFAs or other players who’s rights aren’t owned by an NHL club.

  195. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:

    This isn’t a priority and perhaps Bouchard can fill this role 2-3 years down the road, but I wouldn’t be opposed to targeting a guy like Spurgeon next summer if the term is reasonable and his play hasn’t dropped off. By then we’ll have some idea about Persson, Bear, Lagesson and Jones – and more clarity on Nurse, too.

    Spurgeon would be a wonderful addition to the Oilers blueline but he’ll be a couple of months off 31 when next season starts. I have a hard time imagining a UFA deal he’d plausibly sign that would be value for the term of the deal.

    That said, Holland isn’t shy about mid-30’s players so you never know.

  196. jp says:

    Harlekiini:
    The deal with Puljujärvi and Kärpät has been all over sports news here in Finland, so at least at the moment it’s rather easy to follow him. I’m not sure how much I have to offer, but at least I can link and translate some of the news about him during the season if anything interesting comes up. On that note, my english is not exactly perfect, so sorry if my writing is weird at times.

    One thing that I find interesting is that there have been some opinions that it’s not a good idea for Puljujärvi to come back to Finland. The point is that Puljujärvis problems seem to be related to living abroad, so it would have made more sense to go and play in Sweden or Switzerland rather than to go back to Oulu. Here is a link to a column about that: https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nakokulma-jesse-puljujarven-nhl-ura-vakavasti-uhattuna-onko-tuttu-ja-turvallinen-oulu-paras-paikka-juuri-tassa-vaiheessa-uraa/7525824

    So far so good with your writing and the content.

    That is an interesting article. A little bit surprising to hear from media in Finland that Puljujarvi would be better off elsewhere.

  197. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition

    https://theathletic.com/1163678/2019/08/27/the-2019-20-oilers-and-value-contracts-a-period-of-transition/

  198. Professor Q says:

    Another “news” release is Pronman ranking Edmonton 9th in prospect pipelines.

    I feel like that’s an okay ranking, but they could be higher.

    Also interesting that despite his praise of Bouchard, he’s still a bit down on him, at least when he addresses it in the comments. It actually seems like he’s singing his praises in his description but then pumping the brakes hard when responding to comments (only a “slight bump”). Bouchard performed well when actually playing for the Oilers and Condors, yet somehow he’ll barely become a top line D? Repeated an elite performance, which had been doubted by Pronman and others, yet isn’t given an Elite ranking?

    Also, despite giving Benson a pass on injuries, he didn’t even mention them in his description of Safin (I still have hope!).

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